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Thread: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-10, 03:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-10, 03:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Town playing well doesn't fakeclaim spy. The strongest evidence in my eyes that Xihirli isn't town is that they didn't open the game already fakeclaiming spy. Or werewolf lover.
Also voting Xihirli confirms if assassin is alive or not tonight after Jeen presumably gets sacrificed
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2020-08-10, 04:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-10, 04:01 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
I will say JeenLeen is completely lying, so they must want Xi killed. so Unvote Xihiril. I have to leave for the day, but will resume tomorrow. We need to lynch JeenLeen, though how to get that going is beyond me.
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2020-08-10, 04:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
Also, pretty happy that the witches were my top suspects together with BoF and JP (marginally top suspects).
If the Junior Witch is one of those two I'm satisfied.
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2020-08-10, 04:03 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:05 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Since they're a polarizing figure now...
This is RA's first post, and this is not a game where the scumteam is vampires. And yet their first post reads like they've got vampires on the brain. This could be a Vampire Hunter accidentally spewing themselves, a Vampire Hunter intentionally leaving a clue to their role, or a witch/werewolf subtly fakeclaiming the one non-power-role in the game.
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2020-08-10, 04:07 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Okay, let's talk strategy.
Mass-Claiming
If every single townie claims honestly right now, it doesn't matter who the witches are, they're just ****ed and there's very little they can do about it. There's one safe role for them to claim, and it's whatever gac was. We murder off all the duplicates, possibly assisted by spy's claims, and then there's one witch at most pretending to be gac's role. The only issue is the werewolf, who could then proceed to start their buffet with impunity.
Werewolf needs Witches and VB off the table in order to have guaranteed victory. Werewolf's goal is to lie low until Witches kill VB, that way VB has only a small chance of killing the wolf. Witches targeting the VB (or fakeclaiming VB to get town to lynch VB) is just handing them handing the game to the wolf. Which they might do out of spite, but hey that's the game theory of it: if village does the super-anti-witch move and witches do the super-anti-town move, guess who comes out on top?
But like...basically any other path to victory for the village is basically just luck. Oh and as for why I didn't suggest for the spy to claim yesterday:
1) Witches could figure this all out before the spy, and would get a claim out ahead.
2) This plan works best if the werewolf started their bloodbath on D1 (a stupid move), and then the spy claims, and then the rest of town claims. That has the wolf outed before they realize outing themselves has turned instantly bad.
(And that's why, when you see a supposed-townie suggest during gameplay that the optimal strat for scum is to tell the whole town who they are, you don't publicly call the townie out on telling scum to throw the game, Valmark.)
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2020-08-10, 04:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
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Re: Witch Hunt!
You have it backwards: it'll be proved before long unless the witches sacrifice him anyway - which they are well within their powers to do - allowing them to cause two mislynches and possibly get an extra assassin kill (or at least test the power of the assassin and see if they're the spy) for the cost of one loyal witch.
Annoyingly, this outburst is basically unprovable either way, which is why I have no idea what to do with it. Xi is kinda acting suspicious, though.
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2020-08-10, 04:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
And since I'm preaching the value of honesty: I am the real Traveler.
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2020-08-10, 04:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-10, 04:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Witch Hunt!
OK, by my count a lot of people have posted, none of which have counterclaimed. Most importantly, neither Xi nor rogue counterclaimed, which is something I was a bit worried about since they're on the block.
By my count, the following people haven't posted since the claim: Snowblaze, BunnyOfFaith, JonnyPatches, Elenna, and gac3. A bit silly to include gac as I would be surprised if witches killed one of their own rather than sacrifice but felt like I should write it anyway.
If any of those 4 say they're spy, we'll have to decide between the two claims. But if none of the others counterclaim Jeen as spy we can lynch Xi before the day is over.
Vote Count (7 required for majority)
CaoimhinTheCape 1 (JonnyPatches)
Xihiril 1 (Apgoee)
Not voting: 8 (CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, BunnyOfFaith, Xihirli, AvatarVecna, Elenna, Valmark, JeenLeen, Unavenger, rogue_alchemist)
About 26 hours until day ends.
- - - Updated - - -
got ninja'd a lot, catching up...
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2020-08-10, 04:24 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Up until enough people have claimed that there's a duplicate, I'll be voting for Xihrli.
And because it seems an obvious way to cast shade on my plan, I'm willing to prove I'm not the Werewolf by getting lynched, if that would make people less doubting of my intentions.
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My Homebrew
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2020-08-10, 04:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
https://www.patreon.com/everskendra
I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2020-08-10, 04:28 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
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2020-08-10, 04:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
-
2020-08-10, 04:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
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My Homebrew
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2020-08-10, 04:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
Oh, I forgot that they'd claimed spy-assassin in specific. But if the actual spy is the assassin, they still cause two mislynches (and find out who the spy is) and if the actual spy isn't the assassin, they cause one mislynch and one double kill, and find out someone who the actual spy isn't, and either way this stuff is kinda bad?
I dunno essentially what I mean is that if Jeen is lying, and we fall for it, it's really bad. But then it's still bad if Jeen isn't lying and we don't beleve them, and I can't think of any way (besides giving the wolf an all-you-can-eat menu) to work out whether Jeen is or isn't lying.
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2020-08-10, 04:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
Well it just means we be strategical about claiming.
Suspected wolves claim first and counters come out if needed. We never have more than half the alive players claim. Wolf then has to decide if they start chomping and hope more claims emerge or if they wait and risk getting clipped by an NK or wagon
- - - Updated - - -
If rogue and Xihirli don't hardclaim soon I'm treating it as outing pretty much
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2020-08-10, 04:35 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
Like seriously
If I'm fake-witch claimed in this set up the first thing I do is counterclaim my real role. Or a fake role I know is safe to do so and/or I can signal is a fake somehow
I don't do whatever rogue and xihirli did
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2020-08-10, 04:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Town strat is mass-claim, WW strat is just start chowing down. Town has a count-strat to that, and WW has a counter-strat to that.
No, I am not going to publicly spell out for you what the town's counter-strat is. Either the people who can pull it off have put effort into thinking through their role and know what they can do, or they haven't and we're screwed anyway. But we're definitely screwed if I spell out publicly what can be done about it.
The way things are going, town doesn't really know if JeenLeen's claim is true or not. It might be, but it could be a witch pulling a gambit. There's literally no way to know for sure until the end of the game. JeenLeen could be a witch spewing two random players, and the other witches have agreed to sacrifice JeenLeen tonight for the unblockable kill+assassin kill, while also convincing town that JeenLeen was the "real" spy and thus the two people JeenLeen claimed were witches will die the next two days. That loses one witch in exchange for wasting two lynches and getting two nightkills (one unblockable). That's a solid trade, and it'll even serve as a way for the witches to sniff out which of the other two is the spy.
Or maybe JeenLeen is actually the Spy, Xihirli and RA are actually the other witches, and we won't actually know for sure until the end of the game.
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2020-08-10, 04:42 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:42 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-08-10, 04:44 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender