Witch Hunt!

[Xihirli]

So let me give you all a bit of perspective as to why I'm okay dying here.

Jeen claimed Warlock spy.
So you know that when I survive this lynch, Jeen's a lying liar who lies.

[Unavenger]

They claimed warlock spy, Xi is the assassin.

If Jeen is not lying, Xi dies and sacrificing doesn't give a double kill.

If they are lying and the real Spy doesn't counter-claim... Sucks to be us.

Oh, yeah, right. Trying to think this through is giving me a headache.

[Apogee1]

So let me give you all a bit of perspective as to why I'm okay dying here.

Jeen claimed Warlock spy.
So you know that when I survive this lynch, Jeen's a lying liar who lies.

Soooo is this a warlock claim, an enchantress claim, or a survivalist claim

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Town strat is mass-claim, WW strat is just start chowing down. Town has a count-strat to that, and WW has a counter-strat to that.

No, I am not going to publicly spell out for you what the town's counter-strat is. Either the people who can pull it off have put effort into thinking through their role and know what they can do, or they haven't and we're screwed anyway. But we're definitely screwed if I spell out publicly what can be done about it.

The way things are going, town doesn't really know if JeenLeen's claim is true or not. It might be, but it could be a witch pulling a gambit. There's literally no way to know for sure until the end of the game. JeenLeen could be a witch spewing two random players, and the other witches have agreed to sacrifice JeenLeen tonight for the unblockable kill+assassin kill, while also convincing town that JeenLeen was the "real" spy and thus the two people JeenLeen claimed were witches will die the next two days. That loses one witch in exchange for wasting two lynches and getting two nightkills (one unblockable). That's a solid trade, and it'll even serve as a way for the witches to sniff out which of the other two is the spy.

Or maybe JeenLeen is actually the Spy, Xihirli and RA are actually the other witches, and we won't actually know for sure until the end of the game.

Fair enough, as long as someone has a plan that's fine. I just want to make sure we don't hand the game over.

Looking for the last 4 players to post (or 3 I guess, since Snow can't play anymore).

[Xihirli]

Soooo is this a warlock claim, an enchantress claim, or a survivalist claim

I wouldn't say that.

[Elenna]

Welp, I guess this is where I counterclaim. I'm the real spy. Unavenger and Xihirli are the other two non-junior witches. The junior witch hasn't joined us yet. I was hoping to stay undercover till they joined us, but JeenLeen forced my hand.

And no, JeenLeen is not a witch. Unless they're the junior witch, but I don't see why a JW would fake-claim spy. Current top guess among the witches is that they're the werewolf, and they're fishing for role-claims. As such, I suggest rogue_alchemist shouldn't claim, unless we decide to go with AV's plan and mass-claim.

I could tell you which of Unavenger or Xihirli is the warlock. Then you could try to lynch them and discover that I was correct. That should serve as pretty good evidence of my role, since I'm not sure how else I could know that a specific non-me person is lynch proof. But it involves a) wasting a lynch, and b) giving the werewolf one more good target to devour, plus a 50-50 shot at the role of the other non-me witch. What do y'all think?

2) This plan works best if the werewolf started their bloodbath on D1 (a stupid move), and then the spy claims, and then the rest of town claims. That has the wolf outed before they realize outing themselves has turned instantly bad.

So you did post that really dumb plan on purpose to try to make the werewolf do it? Ha, I was right about something for a change!

- - - Updated - - -

Welp, nevermind that third paragraph, since Xi ninja'd me with pointed comments about not dying.

[AvatarVecna]

Bolded is where the real spy should counter though

That's essentially how witches are putting spy on the spot. Either don't claim and let witches get a double-NK and waste two lynches, or out yourself as a spy D2 when you didn't want to.

Let's say that I'm the real spy and JeenLeen is a witch. I counterclaim, and say that actually, JeenLeen and Unavenger are witches. Town literally can't tell which of us lying or not for sure (maybe JeenLeen is telling the truth and I'm the Junior Witch casting shade), so now instead of having to spend two lynches, they have to spend four.

D2 lynch: Xihirli
N2: sacrifice me/JeenLeen, NK me/JeenLeen
D3 lynch: Unavenger (this is the point where JW hooks up with the witches, now that the spy is definitely dead and can't rat them out)
N3: NK one townie
D4 lynch: rogue_alchemist
N4: NK one townie

At this point, town is out of supposed witches, including the two people claiming spy. That's gac3, Xihirli, AvatarVecna, JeenLeen, Unavenger, rogue_alchemist, and at least two other townies dead. Possibly more, depending on Lovers, VB, and WW.

But assuming somehow that the Lovers are alive, the Enchantress has survived the lynch once, and even so, that's 8 of the starting 14 players dead - maybe Traveler and Survivalist survived somewhere in there too?

At best, by the time we're done checking all the supposed witches, there's eight players left with two witches, two lovers, WW, VB, survivalist with no remaining lives, and the Traveler. More likely, VB died and took somebody with them. More likely, Lovers died at some point. That leaves Enchantress, Junior Witch, Werewolf, Survivalist, and Traveler, who have officially run out of info to go on. That's not a good situation for town either. It's a convoluted one but still.

Basically any strategy ends up similar to this. Witches fakeclaiming runs no real risk because there's no way to tell who's lying and who's not unless we put all the info we have out there. Piecemeal claiming opens us up for this kind of thing, where all we have to go on is what the supposed spies are telling us. Town is probably screwed no matter what we do if we don't mass-claim, and we're probably handing the game to the wolf if we mass-claim but there's a chance we're not. Town's probably going to lose no matter what, and the more thought I put into how to try and go about actually proving anything, the more sad and frustrated I get with thinking about this game. So I figure if I'm probably gonna lose, I'd at least prefer to go out on my own terms trying a ballsy strat.

...

Oh, and I checked the thread before I typed all this up, and two situations occurred that I didn't predict:

1) Elenna has counterclaimed spy, but also claims JeenLeen isn't part of the current witch-chat, which is baffling.

2) Xihirli is apparently soft-claiming wolf while both spies are accusing her.

[Unavenger]

What.

Okay, that means either Jeen is telling the truth or you are BOTH LYING and it is making my BRAIN HURT.

Screw it, I don't even know right now. One of you two is a witch or a werewolf, for certain, and the other I would like to think is the real spy, which means Jeen is telling the truth? But I don't even know.

I'm not sure whether or not I'd have bought "Jeen is lying but isn't a witch" if you hadn't implicated me and therefore shown yourself to be lying.

This is some serious 4D chess crap right here and I don't believe either of you but either way I am very suspicious of Xihirli.

[Xihirli]

I'd argue I'm hard-claiming a power that could be interpreted as one of three roles, 33% of which aren't witches. Statistically, I'm town. Math doesn't lie.

Meanwhile, we have JeenLeen saying "I'm the spy! Xihirli is a witch!"
While Elenna is saying "JeenLeen's lying! Xihirli is a witch!"

So I don't know what's going on there but I'm willing to bet that Elenna looked at what I said and is trying to get town to waste two days of lynches and tomorrow of analysis on me.

[Valmark]

Elenna, it really matters who's the assassin (since they are priority target among witches) and wether the Enchantress has lovers or not and who they are.

I actually can see the Werewolf claiming Spy- by doing that, one way or another the one person they cannot devour is eliminated and you deal a big blow to the witches, who are the other real threat.

That's the major problem to winning dealt with- the Vengeful Bastard is the remaining problem and that one is way less dangerous.

[AvatarVecna]

What.

Okay, that means either Jeen is telling the truth or you are BOTH LYING and it is making my BRAIN HURT.

Screw it, I don't even know right now. One of you two is a witch or a werewolf, for certain, and the other I would like to think is the real spy, which means Jeen is telling the truth? But I don't even know.

I'm not sure whether or not I'd have bought "Jeen is lying but isn't a witch" if you hadn't implicated me and therefore shown yourself to be lying.

This is some serious 4D chess crap right here and I don't believe either of you but either way I am very suspicious of Xihirli.

*makes a note*

[Valmark]

I'd argue I'm hard-claiming a power that could be interpreted as one of three roles, 33% of which aren't witches. Statistically, I'm town. Math doesn't lie.

Meanwhile, we have JeenLeen saying "I'm the spy! Xihirli is a witch!"
While Elenna is saying "JeenLeen's lying! Xihirli is a witch!"

So I don't know what's going on there but I'm willing to bet that Elenna looked at what I said and is trying to get town to waste two days of lynches and tomorrow of analysis on me.

Actually, two of the roles are a witch, so you are a good target either way.

Xihirli.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So the options are:

JeenLeen: Spy/Warlock
Xihirli: Assassin
rogue_alchemist: Enchantress
???: Junior Witch
???: Werewolf



Elenna: Spy/???
Unavenger: ???
Xihirli: ???
???: Junior Witch
JeenLeen: Werewolf



Sounds like Xihirli is bad either way. With JeenLeen as spy that's the best lynch, with Elenna as Spy Xi is bad but Xi will not actually die from the lynch.

So I don't know what's going on there but I'm willing to bet that Elenna looked at what I said and is trying to get town to waste two days of lynches and tomorrow of analysis on me.

That's exactly what I'm worried about. So, to sort this out.


@Elenna If you are the Spy/Enchantress, you can confirm there are no lovers in the game. Would you like to do that? If you are Spy/Warlock you can tell us which of those two is the Assassin that we can lynch today.

---

At this point I'm slightly more inclined to side with Jeen.

[AvatarVecna]

Elenna counterclaimed, and also JeenLeen has already explicitly fake-claimed once this game. These lend some credence to Elenna's claim.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Actually, two of the roles are a witch, so you are a good target either way.

Xihirli.

Problem is, if Elenna is telling the truth, then Xi is a Witch who cannot be lynched today (if Warlock) or until Lovers die (if Enchantress).

So, actually, we would find out today if Jeen is telling the truth. A successful lynch on Xi means that Jeen is the Spy and Elenna is wolf/Junior Witch.

[Xihirli]

Okay, so only 33% of the options are town. But 100% of the town is optional. And therefore, I think it’s pretty clear that we should lynch someone else.
Maybe that guy?

[AvatarVecna]

If one of these two is a spy, then Xihirli is definitely a witch. I'm not really seeing a way around that, I don't see the spy outing themselves just to give town false info. So Xihirli: if you're town, can you lay out a plausible scenario where these are both fakeclaims?

[Valmark]

Okay, so only 33% of the options are town. But 100% of the town is optional. And therefore, I think it’s pretty clear that we should lynch someone else.
Maybe that guy?

Town is optional only to bad guys.

And yeah, Elenna, Jeen, you both should at least tell us wether the Enchantress has lovers or not. Actually, only the Spy should, but we don't really know who is it.

[Xihirli]

If one of these two is a spy, then Xihirli is definitely a witch. I'm not really seeing a way around that, I don't see the spy outing themselves just to give town false info. So Xihirli: if you're town, can you lay out a plausible scenario where these are both fakeclaims?

Right. Okay, so THOUSANDS of years ago, before America Ferrera was cast in How to Train your Dragon, the ancient Egyptians bound monsters in stone tablets (that later became trading cards) to keep control over the fearsome beasts.

However, their hold was tentative, for a caged wolf is still a wolf.

As the cards became mass produced, rather than having more control over monsters we had the same tiny control over more and more monsters.

There was only one answer: I would have to go back in time and stop card games from existing.

[Valmark]

Right. Okay, so THOUSANDS of years ago, before America Ferrera was cast in How to Train your Dragon, the ancient Egyptians bound monsters in stone tablets (that later became trading cards) to keep control over the fearsome beasts.

However, their hold was tentative, for a caged wolf is still a wolf.

As the cards became mass produced, rather than having more control over monsters we had the same tiny control over more and more monsters.

There was only one answer: I would have to go back in time and stop card games from existing.

How does your hardly believable feud with card games make theirs a fake-claim?

[AvatarVecna]

How does your hardly believable feud with card games make theirs a fake-claim?

It helps to read between the lines.
After all, if you read the blank spaces instead of the words, you can make up any explanation you like.

[Xihirli]

I wasn't finished!

Now you might be wondering; “But that wouldn’t stop the initial tablets, would it?”

No.

But you see, I was the VILLAIN. So my plan had to be EVIL.

My brilliant plan was to go back in time to find the person who invented card games and beat them in a card game before they released their invention to the world

They would be humiliated and never release the card game to hide their shame

There was only one flaw. It turns out that while they were the inventor of card games they were not the inventor of card games on motorcycles

And that was the only type of card game I’ve ever learned to play.

[Valmark]

That... Still doesn't make lynching you a terrible idea.

Actually, I'm more motivated by the death of the card game.

[Xihirli]

No, no. There's an ending here that will make this all make sense.

Anyway, My achilles heel: card games on a table. I lost.

My second plan was to go back in time and awaken a dragon in the hometown of the inventor of card games so that as they grew up they’d be busy with the dragon attacks and just never get around to inventing card games

That one was the one Yusei Fudo foiled by beating me in a card game on motorcycles

In retrospect I don’t know how that stopped me from just doing the plan anyway

AND THAT IS THE TALE OF MY TIME AS A YU-GI-OH! VILLAIN

[Unavenger]

That... Still doesn't make lynching you a terrible idea.

Actually, I'm more motivated by the death of the card game.

Actually the card game is the spy, and AvatarVecna and Valmark are the real witches.

[Valmark]

Actually the card game is the spy, and AvatarVecna and Valmark are the real witches.

Dammit, too late. Should have pushed for that early EOD.

- - - Updated - - -

Damned firbolgs.

[AvatarVecna]

Dammit, too late. Should have pushed for that early EOD.

We've been outed. New plan: tonight, we sacrifice Yugi Moto to get an unblockable kill.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

OK. I think I'm gonna step away for a bit. Really, I'm curious to see what Jeen and Elenna have to say about the Lovers. Not sure you should give their names, but at least tell if they are in the game.

Either way, Xi is probably the best lynch for today. If the lynch goes through then Jeen is telling the truth. If it doesn't, Elenna is.

---

Vote Count (7 required for majority)

CaoimhinTheCape 1 (JonnyPatches)
Xihiril 1 (Apgoee, Unavenger, Valmark)


Not voting: 8 (CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, BunnyOfFaith, Xihirli, AvatarVecna, Elenna, JeenLeen, rogue_alchemist)

About 25 hours until day ends.

[Xihirli]

Anyway, that's why you should kill someone else.

[Aventine]

7 votes required for majority

Xihirli 4 (AV, Valmark, Apogee, Unavenger)
Caoimhin 1 (Jonny)