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  1. - Top - End - #91
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I haven't had the time yet to fully parse out what we can learn based on vote patterns D1 and the reveal on who got lynched -- and I probably wouldn't say it until D2 starts anyhow -- but I think it helps the wolves that we lynched an inactive. That greatly reduces the info yielded from the lynch.

    I agree it was a better move than lynching an uncounterclaimed baner. Just noting it doesn't yield much info, so maybe some more suspicion on those who pushed for moving votes from Valmark to an inactive or on Valmark himself. Though if Xihirli flips wolf later, well, maybe we have some ideas of wolf-buddies who were trying to save her.
    For what it's worth, Xihirli's comments and claim feel honest to me. Murderously honest, but that's regular honest with her.
    I think we at least let the wolves know that they can't hide behind being quiet. If they want to come across as town, they need to make noise. And that's what we want.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceseer View Post
    I really wanted what Xihirli said to be true though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    You can trust her to be completely insane; and probably to backstab you.
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  2. - Top - End - #92
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I think we at least let the wolves know that they can't hide behind being quiet. If they want to come across as town, they need to make noise. And that's what we want.
    It's hard to make a "town will target the quiet people first, so wolves better make some noise" argument in a game where most of town is being pretty quiet.


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  3. - Top - End - #93
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Oops forgot about the strikethrough bit

    Going inactivies is unfortunate

    But because of the set-up really the dragoon is not a great loss because it can't confirm other's roles anyways

    And this is mech heavy enough it's solveable

    - - - Updated - - -

    I do say this aware I started the inactive wagon and I get why it's neccesary

    But still feels bad

    Guess we need more posting :P

  4. - Top - End - #94
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    It's hard to make a "town will target the quiet people first, so wolves better make some noise" argument in a game where most of town is being pretty quiet.
    And yet it's exactly what I did.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceseer View Post
    I really wanted what Xihirli said to be true though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    You can trust her to be completely insane; and probably to backstab you.
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  5. - Top - End - #95
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Reminder. We have a little under 13 hours left to get actions in/make changes to your actions

  6. - Top - End - #96
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    End of Night 1

    You wake up to discover the remains of a shadow double and the charred corpse of Johny Patches Traitor: Thief.

    Spoiler: Theif
    Show
    Thief: You have sticky fingers and and quick feet. Each night choose one person and steal their vote for the following day.


    Begin Day 2

    You have 47 hours.

    I think I got everything. If I missed anyone who was expecting feedback, let me know.
    Last edited by gac3; 2020-09-11 at 09:03 AM.

  7. - Top - End - #97
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Huh... so Xi and The Outsider were right about going after quiet ones. I guess that eliminates them from my suspicious list.

    I had a post written up to post once D2 started, but that requires some edits. Edited version (hopefully fully edited to be accurate) below.
    ---

    Trying to parse what happened D1. Some details are omitted as tangential, but here's the highlights that look suspicious to me as the wagons started forming and moving around.
    Wagon formed on Valmark (kinda suddenly), then forms on Xihirli.
    Apogee1 pokes BookWombat.
    Xihirli votes BookWombat, giving a third vote.
    JeenLeen, then Helgraf, vote Xihirli. Xihirli up for lynch.
    Valmark votes BookWombat.
    The Outsider votes BookWombat.
    Xihirli claims White Mage.
    AV notes that Xihirli's statements make sense if she's White Mage, and votes BookWombat.
    Cao votes BookWombat.
    Unavenger votes BookWombat.
    BookWombat flips Town.

    It's been a long week, so I'm not up for making some heavy analysis like "if X flips Wolf/Town, then the implications for Y are...", but I think there's some stuff we can learn from knowing FOR SURE the alignment of Valmark, Apogee1, or Xihirli. Maybe The Outsider, too. But after Johnny flipped wolf, I feel like trusting Xi and The Outsider. So really I'm most curious about knowing Valmark or Apogee.
    So I'm going to vote Valmark again.

    Also, if Valmark does flip wolf, that's even more evidence that Xihirli is Town. And having a mostly-town-confirmed baner is a useful thing.

    OH--and we know the Black Mage is Town.
    Or, if any of Black Mage, Xi, or The Outsider are wolf, they decided to kill off their no-show in hopes of gaining towncred. But... that seems an odd move for wolves to make, so I'm willing to accept them as Town.
    Last edited by JeenLeen; 2020-09-11 at 03:10 PM.

  8. - Top - End - #98
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    So Xihirli....

    Claim your doc target probably?

    Or at least set up a network privately

    Cause that person is approximately always town

  9. - Top - End - #99
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Bussing a missing wolf for easy towncred is a possibility. If Xi is scum, for example, it's easy to cast shade on the inactives publicly. That way if, down the line, the lynch or the vig catches the other inactive, it makes her look better because it was her idea in the first place.

    We also know the Ninja is town and is down a life. Or at least, that's what the narration implies.

    I've also identified the Freelancer, as it happens; something that should've happened...didn't happen, if you catch my meaning. Time will tell what side they're on.


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  10. - Top - End - #100
    Ettin in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    How does my death confirm Xi's Townism? I don't disagree that it would be useful but I can't see how that specific information can be obtained.

    The ways for a kill to not fo through are White Mage and Ninja right? I haven't forgotten any? Assuming the Traitors tried to kill and failed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Riiiight, shadow double. Yeah, I guess that was the Ninja and not a succesfull protect.
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  11. - Top - End - #101
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    How does my death confirm Xi's Townism? I don't disagree that it would be useful but I can't see how that specific information can be obtained.

    The ways for a kill to not fo through are White Mage and Ninja right? I haven't forgotten any? Assuming the Traitors tried to kill and failed.
    There's two kill powers (scumteam and Black Mage), and there's two would-be deaths in the night (the successful thief kill, and either the Ninja who dodged or somebody who was protected by the White Mage).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Gut feeling, Necromancer is maybe town. Wolves would want inactive players to live longer in general (makes their life easier), but also if the Necromancer was scumteam, they'd want active deaths even more, so that they'd have active players to talk to in the afterlife.


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  12. - Top - End - #102
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    So Xihirli....

    Claim your doc target probably?

    Or at least set up a network privately

    Cause that person is approximately always town
    I am going to vote CaoimhintheCape, because they asked me if I was shielding Kinro, I said no, and then the Wolves' Target whiffed.
    Because when I said no, it was a deception.

    I do not view myself as having been town confirmed, and don't think it would be best to center a network of claims around me.
    Last edited by Xihirli; 2020-09-11 at 09:09 PM.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceseer View Post
    I really wanted what Xihirli said to be true though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    You can trust her to be completely insane; and probably to backstab you.
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  13. - Top - End - #103
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Bussing a missing wolf for easy towncred is a possibility. If Xi is scum, for example, it's easy to cast shade on the inactives publicly. That way if, down the line, the lynch or the vig catches the other inactive, it makes her look better because it was her idea in the first place.

    We also know the Ninja is town and is down a life. Or at least, that's what the narration implies.

    I've also identified the Freelancer, as it happens; something that should've happened...didn't happen, if you catch my meaning. Time will tell what side they're on.
    Oops yeah forgot the ninja existed

    Ninja if you want to claim you're probably town and the wolves (presuming the wolves didn't shoot their own ((is that even allowed here?))) already know who you are anyways

  14. - Top - End - #104
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Oops yeah forgot the ninja existed

    Ninja if you want to claim you're probably town and the wolves (presuming the wolves didn't shoot their own ((is that even allowed here?))) already know who you are anyways
    If the wolves agreed to shoot one of their own, I would allow it. This is a response to the bolded section, not an answer to whether or not this is what happened

  15. - Top - End - #105
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Oops yeah forgot the ninja existed

    Ninja if you want to claim you're probably town and the wolves (presuming the wolves didn't shoot their own ((is that even allowed here?))) already know who you are anyways
    I don't think it's an illegal move, but it's still quite strange to see.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I do not view myself as having been town confirmed, and don't think it would be best to center a network of claims around me.
    I have four claims I'm waiting on before I've got a complete set.


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  16. - Top - End - #106
    Ettin in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I am going to vote CaoimhintheCape, because they asked me if I was shielding Kinro, I said no, and then the Wolves' Target whiffed.
    Because when I said no, it was a deception.

    I do not view myself as having been town confirmed, and don't think it would be best to center a network of claims around me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Oops yeah forgot the ninja existed

    Ninja if you want to claim you're probably town and the wolves (presuming the wolves didn't shoot their own ((is that even allowed here?))) already know who you are anyways
    Plus, if the Ninja knows they've been hit that would help regarding Xi's accusations on Caoimhin.

    Meanwhile, Heraf. The reasoning for voting me just looks so bad I'm willingly to vote here now that it's not D1 anymore.
    Last edited by Valmark; 2020-09-13 at 05:26 AM.
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  17. - Top - End - #107
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    By the way. We are down to 11 people. #of votes required for a lynch: 3.

  18. - Top - End - #108
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Placeholder vote on Apogee1.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-09-11 at 05:18 PM.


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  19. - Top - End - #109
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I am going to vote CaoimhintheCape, because they asked me if I was shielding Kinro, I said no, and then the Wolves' Target whiffed.
    Because when I said no, it was a deception.

    I do not view myself as having been town confirmed, and don't think it would be best to center a network of claims around me.
    Kinro, could you confirm that you got a bane-charge?
    If yes, that effectively confirms Xi is honest about both her Role and what she did, and thus about her 'evidence'.
    I put 'evidence' in quotes because it doesn't necessarily mean Xi is correct that the wolves' target shifted. It could never have been Kinro to begin with. But we might have nothing better to go on D2.

    Yet, with all that, as Xi admits, none of this confirms her as Town, just White Mage.

  20. - Top - End - #110
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    So, Jeen is right, Black Mage is confirmed town. I don't know that they should reveal yet, but they can be included in a town network because of that Johnny kill. Gac updated the player list to show the same as what I have below.

    Spoiler: Role List
    Show


    Beast Master: ??? : ???
    Black Mage: Town : ???
    Blue Mage: ??? : Kinro
    Dark Knight: ??? : ???
    Dragoon: Town : Book Wombat
    Freelancer: ??? : ???
    Hunter: ??? : ???
    Necromancer: ??? : ???
    Ninja: ??? : ???
    Paladin: ??? : ???
    Scholar: ??? : ???
    Thief: Wolf: Johnny Patches
    White Mage: ??? : Xihirli




    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    As much as I like sentencing people to death, I'd rather hear from the quiet people first. Johnny Patches, care to speak up?
    I feel good about Outsider, given their vote on Johnny. Could have been distancing, but I'm inclined to think it wasn't.




    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    End of Night 1

    You wake up to discover the remains of a shadow double and the charred corpse of Johny Patches.
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Ninja: You are sneaky and hard to kill, with your ninjitsu powers. Your skill at creating a shadow double allows you to survive the first time you would die.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    We also know the Ninja is town and is down a life.
    I did ask you about your target Xi, but Wolves targeted Ninja last night, not Kinro.




    Not sure where I want to place my vote yet, will read over the thread and see if anything jumps out at me. Either that, or, private networks can be a thing.





    Vote Count (3 minimum to lynch)

    Valmark (1): JeenLeen
    CaoimhintheCape (1): Xihirli
    Apogee1 (1): AvatarVecna

    Not Voting (3): Apogee1, Valmark, CaoimhintheCape
    No Posts (5): Unavenger, Elenna, Helgraf, The Outsider, Kinro
    Last edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2020-09-11 at 10:13 AM. Reason: clarification

  21. - Top - End - #111
    Ettin in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Blue Mage: ??? : Kinro
    When was it said that Kinro is the blue mage?
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  22. - Top - End - #112
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    When was it said that Kinro is the blue mage?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kinro View Post
    I am the Blue Mage. White Mage, if you heal me tonight and tell me who you are tomorrow, I will start healing you for as long as you heal me.
    wordswords


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  23. - Top - End - #113
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    wordswords
    Ops >.> Alright, doubt answered.
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  24. - Top - End - #114
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    wordswords
    I agree with the word swords.




    Also, my votecount above was wrong. Fixing it, plus throwing a vote on Helgraf so that I have a vote out there. I don't have any strong wolf reads yet (given both dead players were afk) but I like pressuring someone who didn't have votes day 1.



    Vote Count (3 minimum to lynch)

    Valmark (1): JeenLeen
    Helgraf (2): Valmark, CaoimhintheCape
    CaoimhintheCape (1): Xihirli
    Apogee1 (1): AvatarVecna

    Not Voting (3): Apogee1,
    No Posts (4): Unavenger, Elenna, The Outsider, Kinro
    Last edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2020-09-11 at 02:35 PM.

  25. - Top - End - #115
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Okay, so yeah, wolves definitely hit the Ninja. Technically Black Mage could still be a wolf looking for towncred, but that would be a pretty weird move (not least because if wolves actually had two kills a night they would be in a really good position and wouldn't need to bother with weird plays )

    I'm down to test Xi's theory by voting Caoimhin.

    Side question, what do people think about publically mass claiming roles? On one hand, is giving wolves info in who to kill. On the other hand, we could coordinate targets more easily (admittedly less important since there are no vortexers, but still) and we could maybe catch some wolves by seeing if people lie about their actions/results. Although obviously not everyone should publically state their actions in advance.

    I initially wasn't going to suggest it since I figured it probably helped wolves more than town, but apparently most people have already claimed to AV (why do people keep claiming to AC with no evidence??) so I'm worried about the possibility that AV is a wolf and the wolves know all the roles and town doesn't. So maybe we should just get all the information into the open?
    Last edited by Elenna; 2020-09-11 at 02:11 PM.
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  26. - Top - End - #116
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Okay, so yeah, wolves definitely hit the Ninja. Technically Black Mage could still be a wolf looking for towncred, but that would be a pretty weird move (not least because if wolves actually had two kills a night they would be in a really good position and wouldn't need to bother with weird plays )

    I'm down to test Xi's theory by voting Caoimhin.

    Side question, what do people think about publically mass claiming roles? On one hand, is giving wolves info in who to kill. On the other hand, we could coordinate targets more easily (admittedly less important since there are no vortexers, but still) and we could maybe catch some wolves by seeing if people lie about their actions/results. Although obviously not everyone should publically state their actions in advance.

    I initially wasn't going to suggest it since I figured it probably helped wolves more than town, but apparently most people have already claimed to AV (why do people keep claiming to AC with no evidence??) so I'm worried about the possibility that AV is a wolf and the wolves know all the roles and town doesn't. So maybe we should just get all the information into the open?
    *takes notes*

    mhmmmmmmm

    - - - Updated - - -

    Given that I'm fairly certain the wolves targeted the Ninja for the kill last night (barring weird scum!blackmage 4D chess shenanigans), I don't think the events described mean Cao has a smoking gun:

    Quote Originally Posted by Order Of Events
    Cao: "Xihirli, are you protecting Kinro?"

    Xihirli (lying): "No."

    Wolves: [target the Ninja]
    This doesn't point to Cao being scum necessarily. He could be, and targeted the kill on someone besides Kinro because he figured Xihirli was lying, but it's hard to be sure about that.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-09-11 at 11:11 AM.


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  27. - Top - End - #117
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Back up a bit, how did we confirm the ninja was targeted, and not a baner/vigilante combo?
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceseer View Post
    I really wanted what Xihirli said to be true though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    You can trust her to be completely insane; and probably to backstab you.
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  28. - Top - End - #118
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Back up a bit, how did we confirm the ninja was targeted, and not a baner/vigilante combo?
    gac3 said a shadow double died, and that means the Ninja lost a life. At least, I can't read that any other way.
    The wolf-corpse was "charred", which seems to imply the Black Mage. And that's how everyone seems to be taking it.

    So it seems conclusive that the wolves tried to kill the Ninja, and the Black Mage (presumably Town) killed the wolf.
    From reading the roles, the only kills in play are wolf NK, Black Mage vigilante kill, and Dark Knight retribution kill. So I don't know what you mean by baner/vigilante combo. Could you clarify?

  29. - Top - End - #119
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    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    The narration isn't the same thing as mechanical confirmation. More to the point, though: if the only way for somebody to survive the NK was being baned, then yes Cao would look pretty suspicious right now. But being baned is not the only way to be protected from the NK, because the Ninja is in play. Heck, we technically don't even know if either of those is what happened - for all we know, the narration is meaningless, tye black mage didn't shoot last night, and the wolves did in fact shoot one of their own as a bigbrain play.

    But the most likely explanation in my mind is that wolves targeted the ninja, not Kinro. And cao's claimed ninja, with no counterclaim (public or private) that I'm aware of.


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  30. - Top - End - #120
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    Jan 2009

    Default Re: Final Fantasy Guild Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I initially wasn't going to suggest it since I figured it probably helped wolves more than town, but apparently most people have already claimed to AV (why do people keep claiming to AC with no evidence??) so I'm worried about the possibility that AV is a wolf and the wolves know all the roles and town doesn't. So maybe we should just get all the information into the open?
    From the private chat I'm in, it sounds like AV has most if not all of the roles claimed and has told at least some folk she has most of the roles claimed.

    AV: is there any good reason you shouldn't share now, and we try to discern the results or coordinate? I'd like to hear your answer to Elenna's question.

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