Wildbow's Pact Mafia

[The Outsider]

Actually... It might be a good idea for seer to target someone who voted RA. The safest bet for the Contract Specialist would be to offer the power to another wolf, especially if it was a power that would be less useful the further we get in the game. And if loss of votes is a downside, we might have an indication that one of the people who voted for RA is a wolf.

[gac3]

Actually... It might be a good idea for seer to target someone who voted RA. The safest bet for the Contract Specialist would be to offer the power to another wolf, especially if it was a power that would be less useful the further we get in the game. And if loss of votes is a downside, we might have an indication that one of the people who voted for RA is a wolf.

Valid point. I assumed loss of votes would be something wolves would avoid but this early in the game, they might not think it matters if one of them fails to vote

[Captain Cap]

I assumed loss of votes would be something wolves would avoid but this early in the game, they might not think it matters if one of them fails to vote

I would say at the beginning the vote is less likely to matter for them: in the first days, a town is statistically more likely to get lynched, with or without wolves' intervention.

[Elenna]

Hmm, contract specialist makes sense. If I were a wolf, I think D1 I'd rather give a fellow wolf a power and -1 vote, rather than giving it to town.
Also, just noticed that the role description doesn't specify whether the person who gets the power is told what the redacted consequence of accepting it is.

Alright, here's my theory:

Since I didn't see any roles that explicitly take people's votes (only ones that passively have a -1 to all totals against them), one of the roles has to have the ability to siphon people's votes hidden in their <redacted> text. My best guess is that the Contract Specialist is one of the wolves, and that one of the redacted "downsides" to accepting their power is a loss of voting ability. This also fits with Xihirli claiming to be a neutral who wants wolves dead: she could very easily be the Rogue Diabolist, if she isn't lying.

Granted, lying and murder seem to be some of her favorite hobbies. Still, I'm willing to believe her until given explicit reason to do otherwise.

EDIT: Scratch that, Xihirli claimed to be able to confirm her role. Probably not the Rogue Diabolist.

I'm personally figuring Xi is probably the Fae Noble, hence my question to JeenLeen earlier. Either that, or Xi is just straight-up lying about being neutral and/or about being able to confirm her role, which would also be very typical for Xihirli.

[JeenLeen]

A Rule I Forgot: Rule of Three

You can target the same person with the same power twice in a row, but if you try a third time, it fails as if you were voided.

If anyone is doing this on N3 such that they'd void themselves, I will try to remember and tell you beforehand so you don't waste your action by accident.
If you somehow have different powers, or the targeting isn't in a row, no problem.

[AvatarVecna]

A Rule I Forgot: Rule of Three

You can target the same person with the same power twice in a row, but if you try a third time, it fails as if you were voided.

If anyone is doing this on N3 such that they'd void themselves, I will try to remember and tell you beforehand so you don't waste your action by accident.
If you somehow have different powers, or the targeting isn't in a row, no problem.

*rereads through the OP looking for relevant roles*

[JeenLeen]

Night 1 Ends

The night goes on with nervous tension. Spellcasters and strange creatures skulk through the night, trying to root out the diabolists or their own personal targets. In the end, there is an unearthly scream and a creature of exquisite beauty lays dead, a malevolent smile upon her lips.

Xihirli was killed. She was the Fae Noble, Neutral.

Fae Noble - Neutral. Win condition: all wolves die, but at least half the Town (round down, if an odd number) is dead.
Once per night, you can use your glamour to prove to somebody your Role and Neutral status. The Narrator will write the message to the target’s QuickTopic. The message is not a lie.
If they are Town or a pro-Town neutral or truly neutral Neutral, the message is "Xihirli is the Fae Noble, a Neutral, whose win condition involves killing all the wolves."
If they are Wolf or an anti-Town neutral, the message is "Xihirli is the Fae Noble, a Neutral, whose win condition involves killing some Town."

Day 2 Begins and will End Approx 2 pm on Saturday October 3rd

If you haven't gotten feedback to power usage yet in your QT, it is coming soon. (I'm writing this post here first.) Everyone who used a power should get at least a sentence from me.

Spoiler: Design Note/oops

Show

Note: I realize I should have added "and you survive" to the win-con... so I guess Xihirli can still win if the game lasts long enough and the Town wins. But that's a fluke, not intentional. Idea is the fae noble wants enough town dead so it can increase its role in the city, but doesn't want the diabolists to take over.

[gac3]

So good news bad news. I got Xihirli's confirmation of being a neutral. Then they died. Not sure which is the good or which is the bad.

In the mean time, I'd like to hear some thoughts from Mornshine. They are usually fairly quiet at best.

[JeenLeen]

Everyone should have a response from N1 in their QT now. Let me know if I missed you or you think you should have gotten more feedback.

On a tangential note, it's a tad stressful making sure I send the appropriate info to the appropriate person! I'm pretty sure I made no mistakes, but, wow, could it be bad if a Narrator did. As a first-time narrator, 'tis a learning point.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: The Missing Vote

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Necromancer - Neutral. Win condition: <redacted>. You have access to the deadchat. Each night, select one deceased person. The next Day, that person may make one post (of less than 500 characters), which may include a vote.
Once per game, <redacted>.

The 1/game "redacted" could be responsible for the missing vote, but that's a weak effect for a 1/game power and I can't think of a really good explanation for why it'd be a necromancer power. Very unlikely candidate.

Ghoul - Neutral. Win condition: <redacted>. Each Day and each Night, you can eat the body of someone who died in a previous Phase. You gain 1 use of their power, which can be used any following phase. (Night powers during Night; Day powers during Day.) You can use multiple powers in the same phase, if you have multiple options.
You cannot use the powers of wolves, but <redacted>.
<redacted>

Primary power could be used D1, but only on JeenLeen/Diabolist Heir, which wouldn't have given a vote-manipulation power. First/second "redacted" are therefore impossible to be related. Third redacted seems separate from the 'eating' power, so there's no evidence suggesting it can't be a vote-manipulation power...but also no evidence suggesting it is, either. Slightly unlikely candidate.

Fae Noble - Neutral. Win condition: <redacted>
Once per night, you can use your glamour to prove to somebody your Role and Neutral status. The Narrator will write the message to the target’s QuickTopic. The statement is true.
<redacted>

I suspected a Fae Noble might have some kind of vote manipulation power and be hiding in the wagon, but with the reveal this morning that ship has sailed. Impossible candidate.

Goblin – Neutral. Win condition: kill the <redacted>.
Each Night, target one player. You learn if they are the <redacted>, as well as if the <redacted> targeted them or was targeted by them that night.

Impossible candidate.

Diabolist: corrupter - Wolf. Each Night, you can summon a demon and have it secretly be nearby someone. The corrupting effects make them be read as a diabolist for the night, or as a lawyer if the Inquisitor targets them.

Impossible candidate.

Diabolist: hound - Wolf. You have a bestial demon bound within yourself. If you are slain, the demon breaks free in a violent outburst. If you are night-killed, you kill whoever killed you. If you are lynched, you randomly kill one person who voted for you.

Impossible candidate.

Diabolist: contract specialist - Wolf. Each Day, you can target one player and choose 1-<redacted> of the powers listed below. The narrator will contact the player and let them choose 1 of the offered powers. If they accept by end of Day, they can use that power that night and only that night. Also, if they accept (regardless of if they use the power), <redacted>.
Powers you can offer include
<redacted>
You can offer this to yourself or to a fellow wolf.

Power can be used D1, if offer is accepted, there is a redacted consequence. The timing of the power use allows for it to affect the vote, and vote-manipulation fits the fluff well enough even if it's not my initial theory for the cost. Likely candidate.

Diabolist: Charmer – Wolf. They wouldn’t have agreed to this deal if you weren’t confusing them. Each Phase, target 1 player. Their power for that Phase, if any, is voided. This includes passive powers.

Unlikely candidate - I'm not seeing how voiding somebody's passive power could result in fewer votes. Altho it's possible we're dealing with a Charmer - it would explain why RA didn't save themselves.

Diabolist: Garrus, demon of names - Wolf. Each night, you can scry someone and determine their name, alignment, and power.
Alternatively, you can learn <redacted> roles that are absent from the game.
You start knowing <redacted> roles that are absent. They are: <redacted>

Impossible candidate.

Diabolist: Scourge – Wolf. You are a master of summoning creatures from the Abyss, as well as demons, to help you murder.
Once per game, during Day or Night, you can perform a kill that cannot be voided or blocked. If you do so, your Role is publicly revealed. The death, and the reveal, happens immediately (or at least immediately after the Narrator reads your power-use in the QuickTopic.)

Impossible candidate.

Goblin Queen: Your goblins are scared of demons, but you can get them to at least sneak around. Each night, you can send your goblins to follow someone. You see who they targeted OR if anyone targeted them.

Impossible candidate.

Enchantress: Each night, you can charm someone. You redirect their targeted power to someone you select. This can redirect the wolf night-kill. The targeted person is told who they actually targeted.
This does nothing if used on someone with a passive power or someone who doesn't use a power that night.

Impossible candidate.

Apprentice Enchantress: Each Night, you can target someone. The next Day, their vote counts towards whoever you vote for.
You start the game knowing who the Enchantress is, though she doesn’t know who you are.

Impossible candidate, at least for D1.

Chronomancer: Your mastery of Day and Night will enable you to survive death, though that will drain your power.
Each night, target somebody; they lose their vote the following Day; they are not aware of this.
If you are killed, you are publicly declared dead but then 'rewind' to be alive once the next Phase starts. This drains your power, making you a vanilla Town from then on.

Impossible candidate, at least for D1.

Apprentice Chronomancer: Your mastery isn’t as strong as your master’s, but you can still do some good.
Each Day, target someone. Their vote counts twice.

Impossible candidate, at least for a vote count lower than a voter count.

Sympathist: You use sympathetic magic to connect things owned by someone to their owner. And, fortunately for you, you have some items that belong to people from the area. Each Night, choose a Town role and <redacted> players. You learn if that Role is active in the game. Also, if one of the people you target is that Role, you identify them as well.
For the purposes of your power, the Vengeful Apprentice and Rogue Diabolist are Town.

Impossible candidate.

Witch Hunter: Each night, you can target someone to kill or to bane.

Impossible candidate.

Diabolist Heir: You read as a diabolist if scried. Each night, you can scry someone and see if they are a diabolist or not.

Impossible candidate.

Telepath: Each night, you can create a QuickTopic for communication with another player, or create a QuickTopic another two players can communicate in. You are not allowed to share these links privately or post them in the main thread.

Impossible candidate.

Karmic Master: good fortune favors you, so total votes against you count at -1. If you are night-killed, the person who killed you has the bad luck to be revealed as their role and alignment.

Impossible candidate. If this were the culprit, RA would've been revealed as the Karmic Master.

Acolyte of Dionysius: Once per game, you can cause a drunken revelry. If used during the Day, all votes but yours are cancelled. If used during the Night, no night powers (including the wolf night-kill) function that night.
Until you use this power, you can void one person per night by making them too drunk to act. This can block the wolf night-kill.

Impossible candidate.

Innocent – You didn’t know about the supernatural and aren’t sure how you got here. You thought it was a LARP until everything went crazy.
Votes against you count at -1. If you are lynched, everyone who voted for you counts as having an extra vote on them the next Day. If you are night-killed, the person who killed you counts as having an extra vote on them the next Day.
At any point in the game, you can ask the Narrator to publicly declare you as your Role; after this declaration, you count as vanilla Town.

Impossible candidate. If this were the culprit, RA would've been revealed as the Innocent.

Inquisitor - you can scry someone each night. You learn if they are diabolist, practitioner (e.g., non-diabolist practitioners), or Other. If diabolist, you also learn if they are a wolf (lawyer) or other diabolist.

Impossible candidate.

Novice Dabblers - you share a QuickTopic and can trust each other. You have a collection of minor skills. Each night, you can use one of the following powers, but you can choose each only once per game. However, if one of you dies, the other loses their powers.
<redacted>

Impossible candidate, at least for D1.

Vengeful Apprentice - Neutral. Win condition: kill the <redacted> and survive. You start the game knowing who the <redacted> is. If scried, you detect as Town.

Impossible candidate.

Rogue Diabolist - Neutral. Win condition: kill the Contract Specialist before you die. Each night, you can scry someone. You learn if they are the Contract Specialist, “another diabolist”, or "another person". If scried, you detect as a diabolist.

Impossible candidate.

With the full capabilities of the Fae Noble now a known quantity, the only (small) chance this isn't the result of the Contract Specialist is if the Ghoul or the Necromancer has a weird vote-manipulation power for some reason. Somebody in the RA wagon made a deal for extra power.

- - - Updated - - -

Correct. Just no making QTs or PMing each other, but posting here Day or Night is fine.

Also, when Day ends, I plan on writing something like the below:

Person With Votes: list of who voted for them (Total Vote # votes)
e.g.,
JeenLeen: Helgar, Valmark, Snowblaze (3 votes)

The # votes will reflect the total after any vote manipulation, and thus will not necessarily equal to the number of people in the list. So you will get evidence that vote manipulation occurred, but (in most cases) no definitive proof whose vote was manipulated.
I do have a 2 PM meeting today, so I might declare who got lynched and then edit in the vote totals later.

If you have any Day powers you want to use, make sure to alert me via your QuickTopic. I'll be checking regularly (probably at least every hour) until Day's end.

Getting a little meta: given what I've just looked at for all the roles, it's unlikely that this particular Rules Clarification was inspired by anything other than the Contract Specialist's deal being taken. The previous post by JeenLeen was this:

As a reminder: if there are ties for the lynch vote, I will randomly pick who gets lynched.

...which did not mention the vote thing because it wasn't on their mind as a thing in need of clarification. To anybody but the CS, the clarification post just reads as a non-sequitur (something relevant down the road, but not immediately relevant). But to the CS themselves, it's a heads-up that their meddling would be publicly known. The latter suggests the deal wasn't offered after the clarification post; the former suggests that the deal was accepted before the clarification post. These are compatible.

...the only thing I'm sure of is that the Contract Specialist didn't offer to themself...assuming that's even a legal option. If that was what had happened, the move after the clarification post would be to unvote and not revote - that way they get the power usage, and their missing vote doesn't arouse suspicion. But then, that'd also be the move if they targeted their partner, provided they were online to give the warning and their partner was online to heed it.

AvatarVecna, gac3, The Outsider, Apogeee1, MornShine, and Captain Cap voted for rogue_alchemist.

Captain Cap and gac3 posted prior to EoD, The Outsider posted minutes after EoD so was definitely present. That leaves me, Apogee, and Mornshine. I know I was online (and more to the point, I know I'm town), so I'll look at the other two.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Apogee1 ISO

Show

Rogue_Alchemist

Not a fully random vote -- most pingy wording of anyone ITT so far.

We will see how this goes

This is the first non-random vote of the game. Serious earlier than most. Not necessarily proof, but...corroborating evidence, if there's more sus stuff later.

Yeah we should

Feel free to engage with me thinking RA is the most likely wolf who has posted.

Or bring up something else

Or even mechanics as long as we don't spend the entire day on mech

NAI. Still a bit too serious a bit too early, but that's a matter of taste.

Mrgle this pings me too

Joining a wagon I am seriously considering for more of a joke reason is !!!

Pings on Mornshine too. Not sure what to make of that, as far as leans go. Probably NAI.

So why I'm voting RA has nothing to do explicitly with using a d12 or a d10 or a d11 or anything

But instead comes from more of just how kinda self-aware and a little awkward his first post is

Especially that part about gac's role having to be powerful that's kinda a :squint:

And I'm not exactly enthused by the fact he's posted twice since I've expressed suspicion

And he's barely mentioned it idk

It's also like

Do we have any stronger wolfreads than this?

"I'm still pushing this wagon really hard, but also I think it's a weak wagon and does anybody have a better idea".

IMO this post reads like a wolf who was trying to come out the gate looking tryhard, but their case was all bluster and they were hoping somebody would show up with something stronger for them to jump on.

You are one of the 6 neutrals in the OP right?

Are you one of the confirmable ones?

Even if we don't know if we can trust your wincon or not

Hmm

...hoo boy, this post has layers, so let's unpack it a bit.

At the time this post was made, the wagons were Xihirli 3/Captain Cap 4/rogue_alchemist 3. Apogee has been pushing RA forever. Xihirli is a counterwagon to Apogee's wagon on RA, so Xihirli claiming as a town-aligned neutral should be support for his case. But instead, Apogee immediately starts casting doubt on the claim. And at least prior to the Fae Noble reveal, there was one explicitly anti-wolf neutral, and it's specifically anti-Contract Specialist, which is basically confirmed to be in the game at this point.

This post could be read as a townie trying to avoid tunneling too hard and being willing to question anybody on anything, but...idk it's giving me serious bad vibes. It really doesn't help that, immediately after Xihirli said "I can prove my role tonight", Apogee disappeared. That was almost exactly 2 days ago, and Apogee hasn't posted since. They were basically missing for the last full day of D1.

Apogee1. This could be an overeager townie, but I keep getting bad vibes, and the spell of silence isn't helping either tbh.

[Captain Cap]

If that was what had happened, the move after the clarification post would be to unvote and not revote - that way they get the power usage, and their missing vote doesn't arouse suspicion. But then, that'd also be the move if they targeted their partner, provided they were online to give the warning and their partner was online to heed it.

I don't know, gac3 noticed pretty soon that Xihirli didn't vote: it could have been equally suspicious and the not voter would have been easily identified; on the other hand, by placing the "null" vote on the most populated wagon, the wolf is now one of many possible suspects.

[AvatarVecna]

I don't know, gac3 noticed pretty soon that Xihirli didn't vote: it could have been equally suspicious and the not voter would have been easily identified; on the other hand, by placing the "null" vote on the most populated wagon, the wolf is now one of many possible suspects.

A fair enough point. I'm not saying it wouldn't have gotten any attention at all, but "this person didn't vote" gets a very different level of scrutiny than "this wagon has fewer votes than voters, and only a wolf could've caused that at this point".

EDIT: That's not even just theorycrafting, it's literally what happened last night: Xihirli's lack of a vote got mentioned, while the RA wagon's missing vote got discussed.

[gac3]

I don't know, gac3 noticed pretty soon that Xihirli didn't vote: it could have been equally suspicious and the not voter would have been easily identified; on the other hand, by placing the "null" vote on the most populated wagon, the wolf is now one of many possible suspects.

Well I noticed so quickly I guess because the numbers didn't add up to 11 and I knew AV had said everyone had posted and nobody either made a point about not voting nor did anyone making a vote count list have a "Hasn't voted" section so I figured it was worth noting. Normally it arouses it's own suspicion but that one was a moot point.

[Elenna]

Not sure why the wolves decided to kill the claimed neutral, even if Xi did claim anti-wolf neutral, but it's definitely better than a town kill.

I'm not completely convinced that the person who got the contract was not on at EoD. Sure, I'll agree that not voting would be better if the Contract Specialist targeted a wolf, but the wolves could easily have not thought it through that far - especially because they might not expect us to realize that the missing vote was due to the Contract Specialist.
That being said, I'm down to poke Mornshine to see if they have anything to say, and that conveniently also fits into AV's theory.

[Apogee1]

So

Yah sorry about RA figured I'd try to push a little harder on something d1 than I normally do but that backfired

Thought about doing this yesterday but I think doing so today for sure makes sense

I am the innocent and am about to be mod-confirmed as town

The wolves will now have to decide between wasting a nightkill on someone with no actual powers or leaving proven town me alive

If I do eat the nightkill I'm effectively body guarding an actual PR at worst and if I don't then our odds of voting wolves is increased and town prs don't need to target me.

I'll come back with ~thoughts in a bit but I'm going to hit the sack after I do this PSet.

[The Outsider]

Interesting. Makes sense, though, pushing is a lot easier when you have a fallback strategy.

I'm always down to get the quiet people talking. What's more, MornShine was on the RA wagon, which makes him a good candidate regardless. So, care to speak up?

Side note: I agree with Elenna in that I'm not convinced that the person who lost their vote wasn't on. Mostly because I don't think checking who was on and who wasn't is a valid tactic, considering the amount of people who just leave this site open while doing other things.

[MornShine]

I return to see that I have the beginnings of a wagon on me. One could imagine my joy.

I voted for RA because, at that point in D1, I thought that it would be more productive to place a second vote on someone for whom somebody had already voted, rather than place another entirely random vote. RA was chosen randomly, though not with a RNG. I actually came up with the justification within the post after having decided on RA. It was intended to be humorous, not sound reasoning. I do tend to be fairly quiet.

In the meantime, we can reasonably conclude that one of the six people voting for RA accepted the Contract Specialist's deal, as per above. Apogee has claimed Innocent, so assuming that will be mod-confirmed, I have no real reads. So, no vote yet.

[AvatarVecna]

So

Yah sorry about RA figured I'd try to push a little harder on something d1 than I normally do but that backfired

Thought about doing this yesterday but I think doing so today for sure makes sense

I am the innocent and am about to be mod-confirmed as town

The wolves will now have to decide between wasting a nightkill on someone with no actual powers or leaving proven town me alive

If I do eat the nightkill I'm effectively body guarding an actual PR at worst and if I don't then our odds of voting wolves is increased and town prs don't need to target me.

I'll come back with ~thoughts in a bit but I'm going to hit the sack after I do this PSet.

Interesting. Hope you'll understand that I'm leaving my vote on you until JeenLeen actually confirms you, mind.

Interesting. Makes sense, though, pushing is a lot easier when you have a fallback strategy.

I'm always down to get the quiet people talking. What's more, MornShine was on the RA wagon, which makes him a good candidate regardless. So, care to speak up?

Side note: I agree with Elenna in that I'm not convinced that the person who lost their vote wasn't on. Mostly because I don't think checking who was on and who wasn't is a valid tactic, considering the amount of people who just leave this site open while doing other things.

I can kinda see Elenna's point, that maybe the CS didn't think it all the way through like that. But this side-note seems weirdly worded to me. And I agree with your point that because of how people tend to leave the site open, or maybe browse without posting, it's hard to be sure who was or wasn't online (I was online and watching the thread at EoD, but I can't prove that with any posts on the site, for instance). But the side-note is worded...weirdly. To me it kinda reads like...

"I don't think the person who lost their vote was offline, and the reason I don't believe that is because it would be difficult to check".

How difficult it is to prove a theory is not an indicator of how true that theory is or isn't. idk, just weird phrasing from my perspective.

Oh, and I wanna clarify, I only think the person must've been offline, if the power recipient was a wolf (although I also think it's a solid theory that they must've been a wolf). If they were a wolf, the logical move in my mind after the clarification post would be to remove their vote from any wagon, and so that casts a bit of shade on whoever wasn't around to make such a move. Granted, that's mostly gut feeling based on how I'd act, so I guess it's possible the others are still on the table.

[gac3]

I have to admit... I don't really know how I feel about how quickly this wagon formed on Mornshine. I mean I know I placed the first vote but how many votes do we need for a pressure wagon when I'm pretty sure they aren't the only one who hasn't posted today. Need to check and see. I will be moving my vote if I find someone else who hasn't posted yet today to spread out this pressure


FOS on Elenna but to be fair it's mainly because I don't know if I know how to read you yet. I keep thinking "hmm... This is how Elenna acts as a wolf" but then I realize I don't actually remember any game where you were town well enough to say if you act differently as one versus the other.


I shall switch my vote to Caiohminthe Cape

[The Outsider]

The phrasing was less meant to be "this theory is wrong because it's difficult to check" and more "this theory is shaky because the main source of information you would use to fuel it is unreliable." Not sure if that makes any more sense, but that's what I was going for.

[JeenLeen]

Apogee1 is The Innocent

I haven't read up on the thread since last night, but he activated his ability, so posting it first.

[AvatarVecna]

Fair enough, unvoted.

AvatarVecna, Elenna, gac3, and The Outsider have posted+voted. Apogee1, Captain Cap, and MornShine have posted, but not voted. CaoimhinTheCape and PartyOfRouges haven't posted yet. Cao's already got a vote, so I'll go ahead and poke the other inactive.

MornShine: Elenna, The Outsider
CaimhinTheCape: gac3
PartyOfRouges: AvatarVecna

[gac3]

Things are still too quiet. Anyone got any information they can share? I'm missing PMs but like I said, my biggest info was having gotten the Fae Noble confirmation on Xihirli.


Edit: I'm willing to bet Captain Cap is town or at least not a wolf. They are the only surviving wagon from yesterday and if they were a wolf, why would the wolves target Xihirli? I'd keep the biggest wagon that was their opposition if I was in that situation.

[AvatarVecna]

Things are still too quiet. Anyone got any information they can share? I'm missing PMs but like I said, my biggest info was having gotten the Fae Noble confirmation on Xihirli.


Edit: I'm willing to bet Captain Cap is town or at least not a wolf. They are the only surviving wagon from yesterday and if they were a wolf, why would the wolves target Xihirli? I'd keep the biggest wagon that was their opposition if I was in that situation.

It's a town full of powers, and nobody has anything to say about what they did last night. It doesn't bode well. Granted, I'm kinda the same way, but I think I'm justified in that decision. But too many people deciding similarly makes for a town murdered by paranoia. Frustrating.

I'm not quite sure I follow your logic on the Captain Cap thing. Can you clarify?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

JeenLeen was killed. He was the Diabolist Heir.

Not sure it's relevant, but noting that I assume the Diabolist Heir is not in the game.

---

Day 1 End

Captain Cap: Elenna (1 vote)
rogue_alchemist: AvatarVecna, gac3, The Outsider, Apogeee1, MornShine, Captain Cap (5 votes)
Xihirli: PartyOfRouges, rogue_alchemist, CaoimhimTheCape (3 votes)

We don't get much info from people voting proven town and then proven Neutral. A couple notes:

Elenna ends the day voting Captain Cap, after voting him to get wagons going. Not necessarily a wolf or town tell, but she didn't pile onto a townie or neutral like everyone else. Not gonna bother quoting but Elenna also guessed Fae Noble right.

FoS on the people who voted rogue_alchemist after Xihirli's reveal (gac3, AV, Captain Cap). Definitely not suspicious at the time, but with the flips that means voting for someone who ended up Town as opposed to the Neutral. Sure, the Neutral claimed they could prove themselves but a dead proven Neutral would be better than dead Town.

By the end of the day, Captain Cap mentions that rogue_alchemist claimed town that could prove themselves and still votes RA. Gac lampshades it in the post after that no one saw that claim but keeps his vote on RA.

---

My best guess is that the Contract Specialist is one of the wolves, and that one of the redacted "downsides" to accepting their power is a loss of voting ability.

Reading the contract specialist more closely this time. I bet it is a "if they accept the contract, their vote doesn't count for that day". So I agree with outsider. I had been going to suggest that the seer target one of the people who voted RA but it sounds like it wouldn't make a difference.

Those seem like reasonable theories, I don't see any other <redacted> sections that would really fit the lose a vote section. Looking at the contract specialist, does it have to be offered to a wolf? "You can offer this to yourself or to a fellow wolf." is the quote but thematically it feels like the offer could go to anyone.

@ the RA wagon from yesterday Does anyone want to confirm that their vote didn't count for some reason? Everyone has posted already but still want to put the question out there.

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...the only thing I'm sure of is that the Contract Specialist didn't offer to themself...assuming that's even a legal option. If that was what had happened, the move after the clarification post would be to unvote and not revote - that way they get the power usage, and their missing vote doesn't arouse suspicion. But then, that'd also be the move if they targeted their partner, provided they were online to give the warning and their partner was online to heed it.

AvatarVecna, gac3, The Outsider, Apogeee1, MornShine, and Captain Cap voted for rogue_alchemist.

Captain Cap and gac3 posted prior to EoD, The Outsider posted minutes after EoD so was definitely present. That leaves me, Apogee, and Mornshine. I know I was online (and more to the point, I know I'm town), so I'll look at the other two.

Run that theory by me again? You're saying that a Wolf lost their vote and should have then unvoted to hide what happened? And following that thought Apogee or Mornshine may be sus since they didn't have the opportunity to unvote? I feel like unvoting would be just as suspicious.

EDIT: Addressed by Apogee, but that leaves MornShine as the only possible candidate (aside from yourself). Still holding your theory there?

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I'm actually going to vote: gac3. And gonna reiterate the FoS from above on AV and Captain Cap.

I am town with a provable role that I will gladly help test tonight if someone wants me to use it on them or if there is a watcher that wants to see what I do and what the consequences are.

Xihirli and rogue_alchemist are currently tied for the lead. Or rather...they were. I've heard a claim from Xihirli, at least. RA, anything you'd like to declare?

Provable role or provable power? Because it's different and you haven't claimed any role yet.

I end my activity for this day by voting rogue_alchemist (no strong suspicions, but retractions and contradictions tend to tip me off).

I guess I'm not the only one who missed that soft claim you are recommending. It's nearly as much information as Xihirli gave.

While no one noticed RA's softclaim initially, Captain Cap does bring it up and gac reacts immediately after. There's no discussion by either of them (or any other posters, for that matter) to entertain RA proving themselves at night. Even more to the point, gac admits that this is nearly as much info as Xihirli gave ("I'm Neutral and can prove it") but there is no move by anyone to set up a way to keep RA around to figure this out. Especially when we did have confirmation that we could publicly talk at night.

Edit: also, we can speak at night right?

Correct. Just no making QTs or PMing each other, but posting here Day or Night is fine.

So that end of day discussion screams to me that there was some Wolf who didn't want a provable town role to live. The last three who voted RA were Avatar Vecna, Captain Cap, and gac3 - all of whom posted after the claim. Captain Cap voted in the same post as the claim, gac3 acknowledged it, and (according to AV) they were online for the lynch so they would have seen those posts.

I'm guessing there's a wolf among them, giving preference to gac3 because looking back at the overnight discussion Outsider suggests the possibility of it being Contract Specialist shenanigans and gac3's agreement looks a bit like agreeing to cover bases.

Reading the contract specialist more closely this time. I bet it is a "if they accept the contract, their vote doesn't count for that day". So I agree with outsider. I had been going to suggest that the seer target one of the people who voted RA but it sounds like it wouldn't make a difference.

After agreeing with the basic idea and then immediately saying it doesn't make a difference if the seer goes after someone on the RA wagon (protecting himself).

Edit: I'm willing to bet Captain Cap is town or at least not a wolf. They are the only surviving wagon from yesterday and if they were a wolf, why would the wolves target Xihirli? I'd keep the biggest wagon that was their opposition if I was in that situation.

Also, this doesn't feel true to me? Xi claimed they could confirm themselves and did to you. Assumidly Xi wouldn't have a wagon today anyway given the confirmation from N1. I can't say I get why they picked to kill Xi but I'm definitely not ready to clear Captain Cap for any reason.

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Vote Count

Mornshine (2): Elenna, The Outsider
CaoimhinTheCape (1): gac3
PartyOfRouges (1): AvatarVecna
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting (1): MornShine, Apogee1, Captain Cap
No Posts (1): PartyOfRouges

[JeenLeen]

Again, I don't want to post often, but I do want to clear up confusion based on my own poor wording

Those seem like reasonable theories, I don't see any other <redacted> sections that would really fit the lose a vote section. Looking at the contract specialist, does it have to be offered to a wolf? "You can offer this to yourself or to a fellow wolf." is the quote but thematically it feels like the offer could go to anyone.

Contract Specialist can offer it to anyone, wolf or non-wolf. That line at the end was to clarify that they can (if they choose) offer it to a wolf instead of a non-wolf. I figured that was a possibly that might not occur to the wolves unless stated explicitly, so I wanted to clarify it when writing the role lest it be an unfair, hidden loophole.

[gac3]

I suppose that this argument doesn't make me look any less wolf but my point about Captain Cap was more, if I were a wolf and Cap, I would have killed me. Then Xihirli's big reveal is postponed and therefore making them still a viable suspect. I honestly probably would have done that if I was a wolf anyways. Or at least considered it. That argument probably makes me look like a wolf even more though because my argument is essentially, "I don't understand why I am alive instead of Xihirli, because it doesn't make sense as a wolf move".

As for the RA claim I noticed. If you see the timestamp, I posted about it a minute before end of day. Realizing it that late when the vote was no longer anywhere close, what would be the point of moving?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

As for the RA claim I noticed. If you see the timestamp, I posted about it a minute before end of day. Realizing it that late when the vote was no longer anywhere close, what would be the point of moving?

Looking back I see the timestamps and your vote alone wouldn't do anything, but saying it was no longer close is a bit much. Even not knowing about the vote manipulation, it was 6 to 3. Two votes moved from RA to Xi would have lynched a provable Neutral rather than a provable town.

Noticing at the deadline means there would be little chance of something happening but you moving makes it only 1 vote to flip the wagons rather than 2. It's at least more of a shot than if the vote remains and if anyone else were on near deadline they could have stepped in for the final vote.

[Captain Cap]

Some thoughts on rogue_alchemist wagon:

I proceed from the assumption that there was at least 1 wolf aboard (the theory about the Contractor Specialist and the wolf target is definitely the most plausible): I'm town (I know, I'm not an unbiased source, but I had to say it) and Apogee1 is most certainly innocent (literally); this leaves AvatarVecna, The Outsider, gac3 and MornShine.

Let's begin with the reasons behind the votes (anyone interested can find mine here):

Rogue-alchemist, you claimed that you used a D12 as your RNG. But why would you do that...
when, as PartyofRouges already demonstrated, a D10 is the obvious choice?

Clearly, you must be hiding something. Or trying to buddy up to the Barbarians. Suspicious activity indeed...

Obviously a joke vote.

So, rogue_alchemist, let's see if Apogee's theory holds water.

Not particularly convincing.

Xihirli and rogue_alchemist are currently tied for the lead. Or rather...they were. I've heard a claim from Xihirli, at least. RA, anything you'd like to declare?

Trying to get a more substantial claim from rogue_alchemist. It makes sense.

Fair enough. Dumb reason is better than no reason. Rogue Alchemist

With "dumb reason" referred to what led to the wagon formation (see Apogee1 and MornShine's comments).

Normally I wouldn't have much problem with joke/meaningless votes, but I think in this case they deserve more attention, given they got a town lynched. Thus I'll concentrate on The Outsider, MornShine and gac3. (Not only AvatarVecna presented a decent reason, but she has also been one of the most active players so far and produced some sensible analysis)

The Outsider has been the first to propose the Contractor Specialist theory and to suggest that a wolf was the most likely target. This seems quite anti-wolf, but let's assume they're the bad guy: it could be that he thought the truth would have come out anyway, so they simply anticipated the eventuality and unveiled the strategy to appear good and deceive town.
But, if they truly thought the strategy would have been so obvious, why don't just do what AvatarVecna suggested, unvote and not revote? It would have been way more discreet and less risky.

gac 3, like The Outsider and AvatarVecna, has been fairly active, engaging in the various discussions and bringing meaningful contribution overall: town leaning.

MornShine, on the other hand, hasn't shown any particularly pro-town activity so far: given my thoughts about the other suspects and the previous assumption, I'm almost certain they're wolf.