Wildbow's Pact Mafia

[Elenna]

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO

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Well, vote: Xihirli so that some discussion actually happens I guess? No reads but we have less than 24 hours left so I feel like we need to do something.

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Vote Count:

MornShine (1): The Outsider
AvatarVecna (1): Xihirli
Xihirli (2): PartyOfRouges, CaoimhinTheCape
Captain Cap (1): AvatarVecna
gac3 (1): rogue_alchemist
Elenna (1): gac3
rogue_alchemist (1): Apogee1

Not Voting (1): Captain Cap
No Posts (2): Elenna, MornShine

Pretty much NAI although I guess pushing for discussion is good? But not exactly hard for a wolf to fake.

My bad - I just read that Days were 48 hours long and I missed that Day 1 would be longer (a little under 2 days from now?). So we have plenty of time.

Still think we need to get some sort of discussion going.

Don't really like Caoimhin pushing for discussion and then immediately disappearing for the remaining ~45 hours of D1 (assuming I'm reading the timestamps right). Granted there wasn't a *ton* to discuss during D1, but there was some talk about die-rolling and Xihirli's claim, so it's not like there wasn't anything Cao could say. Kinda feels like a wolf faking a desire for discussion.

Not sure it's relevant, but noting that I assume the Diabolist Heir is not in the game.

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We don't get much info from people voting proven town and then proven Neutral. A couple notes:

Elenna ends the day voting Captain Cap, after voting him to get wagons going. Not necessarily a wolf or town tell, but she didn't pile onto a townie or neutral like everyone else. Not gonna bother quoting but Elenna also guessed Fae Noble right.

FoS on the people who voted rogue_alchemist after Xihirli's reveal (gac3, AV, Captain Cap). Definitely not suspicious at the time, but with the flips that means voting for someone who ended up Town as opposed to the Neutral. Sure, the Neutral claimed they could prove themselves but a dead proven Neutral would be better than dead Town.

By the end of the day, Captain Cap mentions that rogue_alchemist claimed town that could prove themselves and still votes RA. Gac lampshades it in the post after that no one saw that claim but keeps his vote on RA.

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Those seem like reasonable theories, I don't see any other <redacted> sections that would really fit the lose a vote section. Looking at the contract specialist, does it have to be offered to a wolf? "You can offer this to yourself or to a fellow wolf." is the quote but thematically it feels like the offer could go to anyone.

@ the RA wagon from yesterday Does anyone want to confirm that their vote didn't count for some reason? Everyone has posted already but still want to put the question out there.

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Run that theory by me again? You're saying that a Wolf lost their vote and should have then unvoted to hide what happened? And following that thought Apogee or Mornshine may be sus since they didn't have the opportunity to unvote? I feel like unvoting would be just as suspicious.

EDIT: Addressed by Apogee, but that leaves MornShine as the only possible candidate (aside from yourself). Still holding your theory there?

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I'm actually going to vote: gac3. And gonna reiterate the FoS from above on AV and Captain Cap.









While no one noticed RA's softclaim initially, Captain Cap does bring it up and gac reacts immediately after. There's no discussion by either of them (or any other posters, for that matter) to entertain RA proving themselves at night. Even more to the point, gac admits that this is nearly as much info as Xihirli gave ("I'm Neutral and can prove it") but there is no move by anyone to set up a way to keep RA around to figure this out. Especially when we did have confirmation that we could publicly talk at night.






So that end of day discussion screams to me that there was some Wolf who didn't want a provable town role to live. The last three who voted RA were Avatar Vecna, Captain Cap, and gac3 - all of whom posted after the claim. Captain Cap voted in the same post as the claim, gac3 acknowledged it, and (according to AV) they were online for the lynch so they would have seen those posts.

I'm guessing there's a wolf among them, giving preference to gac3 because looking back at the overnight discussion Outsider suggests the possibility of it being Contract Specialist shenanigans and gac3's agreement looks a bit like agreeing to cover bases.



After agreeing with the basic idea and then immediately saying it doesn't make a difference if the seer goes after someone on the RA wagon (protecting himself).





Also, this doesn't feel true to me? Xi claimed they could confirm themselves and did to you. Assumidly Xi wouldn't have a wagon today anyway given the confirmation from N1. I can't say I get why they picked to kill Xi but I'm definitely not ready to clear Captain Cap for any reason.

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Vote Count

Mornshine (2): Elenna, The Outsider
CaoimhinTheCape (1): gac3
PartyOfRouges (1): AvatarVecna
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting (1): MornShine, Apogee1, Captain Cap
No Posts (1): PartyOfRouges

Really like this post. Cao does a good job of finding suspects. Town lean.

Looking back I see the timestamps and your vote alone wouldn't do anything, but saying it was no longer close is a bit much. Even not knowing about the vote manipulation, it was 6 to 3. Two votes moved from RA to Xi would have lynched a provable Neutral rather than a provable town.

Noticing at the deadline means there would be little chance of something happening but you moving makes it only 1 vote to flip the wagons rather than 2. It's at least more of a shot than if the vote remains and if anyone else were on near deadline they could have stepped in for the final vote.

NAI. This could be a townie continuing to suspect gac, or it could be a wolf who's picked gac as a good scapegoat and is carefully restating the numbers in a way that makes their theory look good.

@Captain Cap

Just to confirm, even though you didn't have strong suspicions on RA (or anyone I assume) their retractions/contradictions were enough to override their claim that they could be proven? My post above applies to you too, voting someone who claimed they could prove themselves Town over someone who could prove themselves Neutral.




Vote Count

Mornshine (3): Elenna, The Outsider, Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (1): gac3
PartyOfRouges (1): AvatarVecna
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting (2): Apogee1, MornShine
No Posts (1): PartyOfRouges

For the claims point, I'm more concerned with the optics at the time, rather than looking back. Sure, Xi's claim was provable by the message that would be sent. But at the time both people were saying "I can be proven" but no one seemed on board with giving the townsperson a shot, rather than the neutral. And, frankly, there is a way we could have proven RA if he used his power during the day (to negate other votes) or at night (no powers would work). Pretty sure either of those options would be obvious.


OK, I get the second part of your post then. My question now is are you convinced enough to vote the only person who fits that description (Mornshine) or not?

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Vote Count

Mornshine (2): Elenna, Captain Cap
PartyOfRouges (3): AvatarVecna, gac3, The Outsider
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting (2): Apogee1, MornShine
No Posts (1): PartyOfRouges

Slight town lean on the above two posts. Pushing back on and clarifying other people's arguments is (IMO) easier for a wolf to fake than finding new arguments, but still helpful.

In general, Caoimhin looks somewhat towny, although I would feel better about them if they'd talked more D1.

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Spoiler: PartyOfRouges ISO

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According to my master investigative skills and this 10-sided die I had laying around, Xihirli is definitely guilty

JeenLeen said all times are EST

The above two posts are NAI by themselves, but the fact that this is all POR said for all of D1 is... not great.

Sorry for not posting yet, everything’s been a bit hectic today. Going off the assumption that a wolf was RA wagon, MornShine seems the most suspicious at the moment, though I’ll add in some more of my thoughts in a bit.

After eating and catching up on some other stuff here’s my thoughts, focusing on the RA wagon
MornShine: his reasoning when he first voted for RA was strange, and his argument today seemed unconvincing.
AvatarVecna: very talkative, and trying to get conversation going, seems town to me
Gac3: seems cautious about lynching but still talking, leaning town
Outsider: don’t have much on him, but hasn’t done anything wolfish
CaptainCap: gac3’s argument for him is somewhat convincing, but I don’t have much on him myself

Nice to have some thoughts from POR, although I'd have appreciated more detail. I'm confused by the line about CaptainCap - did he think Cap was suspicious or not? If so, I would have liked an explanation of why he voted Mornshine and not Cap.

I don’t think they would be very concerned about a vote loss, since day 1 just amounts to mostly random bandwagons, and scrying or intel wouldn’t be very useful to the wolves, while scrying as town for one night seems like a fair trade-off for a vote.

Nothing about contract specialist says that each player can only accept it once, and at the time you wouldn’t be aware that vote manipulation would be known, so no downside for a possibility of being proven town.

Well that raises more questions, how do you know the inquisitor scried Cap unless you’re the inquisitor, this seems like a claim

POR suddenly starts talking a lot to question gac about a pretty unlikely chance, and to push for an explicit seer claim? Seems strange.

Yeah, wolf lean on PartyOfRouges.

Hopefully I'll find time to do a Outsider ISO and an AV ISO later? Thoughts based on just skimming the thread:

• Outsider is the one who proposed the whole "Contract Specialist targeted a wolf" theory. I'm inclined to give them points for that, although there's always the possibility that the wolves didn't think of targeting themselves until later and then wolf!Outsider made up this whole theory to make us look at someone else.
• But if the Contract Specialist targeted a townie, why wouldn't the townie just say what happened? That's the thing that really makes me think it was a wolf that was targeted.
• I'm still basically incapable of reading AV, but it's worth noting that if the "a wolf was on the RA wagon" theory is true, at least one of Outsider and AV is a wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm guessing Captain Cap scried gac and that's how he knew gac was Practitioner? I'm not quite sure why he didn't just say so, but oh well.



Eh, I could write up a response to this, but based on gac's post, the uncounterclaimed Inquisitor apparently just scried me as town, so I'm probably not going to bother. Long story short, "town but doesn't have enough time to play this game properly" me admittedly looks a lot like wolf me.
Also, if I were a wolf, why would I kill Xihirli when I was pretty sure she was a neutral? Actually, wolf-me would have been even more certain Xi was neutral, because wolf-me would know she wasn't a wolf.


Between this post and the one above was a bunch of discussion of Captain Cap and gac that basically didn't mention me or Mornshine at all. So I'm not really sure what prompted the vote change? Was it a test to see if anyone would notice the change? Was it a test to see how many people would jump on Mornshine versus jumping on me? Is AV a wolf who decided they wanted Mornshine lynched more than me for... some reason? Am I overthinking it and AV just changed their mind and didn't have time to explain why?

We were getting to near end-of-day, and there had still been a serious wagon on the seer. At the time of my vote change, it was 3 on Mornshine, 3 on gac. I didn't vote to kill Mornshine, I voted to save gac..which you also did, not all that long after. And unless the wolf team is somehow gac/Elenna, you're seer-cleared now, so I have no idea why you're casting shade on me for doing literally the thing you did a little while after I did it.

I'm still convinced that a wolf was on the RA wagon. So, let's take a look:
-MornShine was Town
-CaptainCap was Town
-Apogee is Town
-gac3 is most likely Town

That leaves only one person. It has to be AvatarVecna. I'm sure of it.

You're wrong. I'm neutral, although I was in fact the person who got the deal D1. Time to bring back some posts!

Hmm, contract specialist makes sense. If I were a wolf, I think D1 I'd rather give a fellow wolf a power and -1 vote, rather than giving it to town.
Also, just noticed that the role description doesn't specify whether the person who gets the power is told what the redacted consequence of accepting it is.


I'm personally figuring Xi is probably the Fae Noble, hence my question to JeenLeen earlier. Either that, or Xi is just straight-up lying about being neutral and/or about being able to confirm her role, which would also be very typical for Xihirli.

NAI, although I might come back to this later, depending on how things go.

...

Well, Mornshine's spoken up, and Captain Cap makes a good point about gac3 keeping his vote where it was after noticing RA's townie claim. Plus gac3 was on the rogue_alchemist wagon and could have been the target of that contract. (I'm increasingly convinced that the person who took the contract was a wolf, because why wouldn't a townie just speak up about it and explain what happened?)

Also,

Not really sure if this is wolfy or not, tbh? I'm generally not a fan of "I think this person is suspicious but also I'm going to vote this other person" posts. But I don't really see why a theoretical wolf!gac would avoid voting for neutral!Xihirli. Still, along with the other points above it's good enough reason right now for me to switch to gac3.

I'll come back to this later as well. But also...the logic Elenna decries here isn't dissimilar to what she used as the justification for voting MornShine ("I don't believe this, but also I'll go along with it anyway"). Which, incidentally, she also uses here, voting for gac even though she has some doubts about wolf!gac. She's mostly just latching onto Cao's arguments. None of this is proof, but it gives more bad vibes.

I'm the goblin. My goal is to kill the Fae Noble, which...yep, dead. My power is to see if my target is the Fae Noble, was targeted by the Fae Noble, or themselves targeted the Fae Noble. And then FN died N1, so I've had no reason to use my power each night, and nothing useful it would do anyway. It's why I've been leaning so hard into analysis instead of mechanics discussion.

I got an imp pop up and offer me a 1-time bane power, a bit after Xihirli claimed anti-wolf neutral. I didn't know if that was a FN claim exactly, but I figured there were only two neutrals in the game. When Xihirli claimed her role would be confirmed N1, I knew either Xihirli or gac would get targeted. I figured either Xihirli died in the night, or would die the next day because gac was dead and couldn't confirm her, so I put my vote elsewhere to look like I didn't want her dead. I took the imp's deal, and that night I baned Elenna.

I wasn't informed of the cost to accepting the power, but I knew it had one cuz of the OP. At the time, I figured that in exchange for accepting this new power, my old one would, itself, be voided. I turned out to be wrong, and overnight everybody convinced themselves that the wolves would do a gain power/lose vote on a wolf, and I'm just sitting here sweating cuz like...I could not claim to have the power yesterday, it would distract from the wolf hunt and more importantly get me killed. I got an answer a ways into D2 that in fact my death wouldn't ruin my win condition, but I couldn't claim the power-target at that point because then people would question why I waited. So instead I just tried to make myself helpful to town in hunting down wolves. Since Xihirli died in the night I had suspicions on gac, but I was still trying to get a feel for everybody.

So, aaaaaalllll of that said, yeah you could kill me today if you wanna test my claim, and it wouldn't inconvenience me too much. But I'm kinda investing in helping town hunt for scum at this point, and I'd rather town not waste a kill on me when no scum's died yet.

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Apogee and Cao didn't vote to save gac. Apogee gets a pass, cuz Innocent, but there were six hours between the seer claim and EoD. Was Cao just not on, or were they lurking?

And while POR did eventually jump on, I know for a fact they were online when the seer claim dropped. They didn't switch to join the Elenna wagon (which turned out to be the right move in the long run, I guess), but looking back I'm getting red flags: when it turned out the score was 2v3v2 with the seer in the lead, POR was online, and didn't switch to join the seer on the Elenna wagon. It's fortunate that gac joined the MornShine wagon, actually, because until he didn't that possibility hadn't occurred to me.

The only other possibility is The Outsider, who I'm having trouble getting a bead on. I'll probably isolate their posts once I've got errands done, see if it gives me something to chew on.

[The Outsider]

I don't buy that claim at all. It's a claim that is both safe for the Town and impossible to prove save via scrying- the exact type of claim a wolf stalling for time would make. Additionally, why not announce that your WinCon had been fulfilled the instant the Fae Noble was murdered? Sure, you can make the argument that people might not believe you, but why does that matter if you've won? Furthermore, if you really want to help the Town catch scum, why not give them as much information as possible? It just doesn't add up.

[gac3]

I'm still convinced that a wolf was on the RA wagon. So, let's take a look:
-MornShine was Town
-CaptainCap was Town
-Apogee is Town
-gac3 is most likely Town

That leaves only one person. It has to be AvatarVecna. I'm sure of it.

So this post actually makes me feel really confident outsider is a wolf. First of all that leaves two people because you didn't even claim to be town in that post. Second I don't remember a single time I have ever seen the bolded phrase come from someone who wasn't a wolf.


That said, if we believe AV's claim, then that only leaves three potential wolves. I think it's time town started claiming. Especially the other novice dabbler, who is now vanilla town.

Outsider

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Outsider is the one who proposed the whole "Contract Specialist targeted a wolf" theory. I'm inclined to give them points for that, although there's always the possibility that the wolves didn't think of targeting themselves until later and then wolf!Outsider made up this whole theory to make us look at someone else.

This is also a valid point. Outsider started that train of thought and is now using it to try to discredit a claim without making one themselves.

[AvatarVecna]

I don't buy that claim at all. It's a claim that is both safe for the Town and impossible to prove save via scrying- the exact type of claim a wolf stalling for time would make.

gac3 is inquisitor, his scry is literally "diabolist, practitioner, or other". His scry would totally determine if I were telling the truth or not. Why are you lying?

EDIT: Nvm I'm dumb it seems, you said "impossible to prove save via scrying" and for some reason I thought you said it was impossible to prove with a scry. It's still weird how you're picking holes in my claim as I've laid out below.

Additionally, why not announce that your WinCon had been fulfilled the instant the Fae Noble was murdered? Sure, you can make the argument that people might not believe you, but why does that matter if you've won?

I literally addressed this in that post: at start of D2, I wasn't sure if my win condition required me to live or not, especially since JeenLeen had already said "yeah I intended for Fae Noble to lose if they die, but I forgot to write that in the role description", so I asked about it in my QT while holding off on claiming. I spend D2 trying to be a helpful neutral while waiting for an answer. When one finally came, I was relieved because while it looks like I was also intended to lose when I die, that was also missing from my role write-up just like it was missing from Xihirli's, and so I got the same free pass that Xihirli was given post-mortem.

But at that point, it was already more than 24 hours into D2, and we had some serious wagons going. I didn't want to shake things up by giving everybody a reason to suddenly question everything I'd done to help up to that point, so I kept quiet on it. Better for my credibility if I helped catch a wolf before I claimed, and I think that was a good choice because EoD2 was a right mess even without throwing that extra chaos into the mix. I've even quoted posts where I already hinted that I took issue with how hard the "contract specialist targeted a wolf" theory was being pushed, this isn't something I just pulled outta my ass.

I know you're upset cuz it was your theory in the first place that wolves would give themselves the extra power D1, and that theory turned out to be wrong. And hey, we can still go ahead and test it out by killing me today, if you just can't take the L, but I'd rather town spent that time doing something productive.

TL;DR: Early D2 was bad time to claim cuz I wasn't sure if I'd actually won yet or not. Late D2 was a bad time to claim because it would've made an even bigger mess out of an already big mess. I'm claiming today because I think going after me today is a mistake for town, especially when my role can be confirmed.

[gac3]

For what it's worth, I'll quote things to push this point later, but I think the wolves are outsider and party of Rogues.

[The Outsider]

Alright. Before you start quoting me, I have a bit more relevant information that, in retrospect, I should have led with.

I'm the Rogue Diabolist. I scried Apogee1 on N1 and AV on N2. AV came up as "another diabolist." I was hoping to be subtle about this, but I can see that it was both ham-fisted and suspicious to push them without claiming.

Since I haven't found the Contract Specialist yet, my gut reaction was to remain hidden, especially since the last Town-friendly neutral claim got murdered in the night. However, that's clearly not working, so I'm putting myself out there. AV is not a neutral, they are a wolf.

That being said, they're not the Contract Specialist. So if you think that PartyOfRouges is a wolf, then that means they're probably who I'm looking for.

[gac3]

Well.. that claim does shed some light on some things. Hmm... Anyone else want to claim and try to help this out?

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I feel safe saying one of Outsider or AV is a wolf. I'd like to believe Outsider because that means that I can Scry Cape and they can Scry PoR or vice versa and whoever lives will know who the second wolf is.

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Trying to look at and narrow down the wolf roles, the only one I feel confident isn't around is the Charmer.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Well.. that claim does shed some light on some things. Hmm... Anyone else want to claim and try to help this out?

Yeah, I'll jump in. I'm the other Novice Dabbler, so, not really helpful at this point. Sorry I pushed on you yesterday gac but Cap and I wanted to distance from each other so wolves couldn't figure out I was his partner. We had you covered last night in case there was no other doc but I guess we should have saved ourselves.

I'll read over the thread (skimmed, but I wanna look at the claims again) a little later tonight, but wanted to at least chime in with a claim.

[gac3]

Yeah, I'll jump in. I'm the other Novice Dabbler, so, not really helpful at this point. Sorry I pushed on you yesterday gac but Cap and I wanted to distance from each other so wolves couldn't figure out I was his partner. We had you covered last night in case there was no other doc but I guess we should have saved ourselves.

I'll read over the thread (skimmed, but I wanna look at the claims again) a little later tonight, but wanted to at least chime in with a claim.

I appreciate it. Wish they had targeted me instead of cap. You should be safe though.

So now if it's Party of Rogues and either outsider or Avatar Vecna. So let's kill [COLOR="#FF0000"]Party of Rogues[/COLOR] and see if we can figure the other one out before the next lynch.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Vote: Party of Rogues because, yeah. There's the off chance that PoR is last town and both of the claimed Neutrals are wolves? But we have time to sort that all out once PoR claims.

5 Elenna - town

Good thing you scried Elenna, I thought we caught a wolf voting for you yesterday with that.

I'm guessing Captain Cap scried gac and that's how he knew gac was Practitioner? I'm not quite sure why he didn't just say so, but oh well.

Yeah, that's the gist of it. We wanted to hide some stuff from the Wolves but they figured us out.

So, aaaaaalllll of that said, yeah you could kill me today if you wanna test my claim, and it wouldn't inconvenience me too much. But I'm kinda investing in helping town hunt for scum at this point, and I'd rather town not waste a kill on me when no scum's died yet.

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Apogee and Cao didn't vote to save gac. Apogee gets a pass, cuz Innocent, but there were six hours between the seer claim and EoD. Was Cao just not on, or were they lurking?

The Goblin claim is possible, it ties up the two Neutrals together basically. AV is definitely the type to take whatever deal they were given to see what happens but I'm a bit worried if they take a deal again?

There's no way to prove anything about being online or not, but I can't say I was very available during what was a Saturday morning/early afternoon for me?

Also, is it really a game of Werewolf if AV doesn't suggest lynching themselves?

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But what I'm really more worried about is Outsider? Besides distancing from Cap, we wanted to see who was willing to vote someone we knew was town. Elenna and Outsider joined in and it looked like we had gotten the two Wolves (though, turns out Elenna is town), plus Outsider was last to move off the wagon. What I'm most skeptical about is the claim.

I'm the Rogue Diabolist. I scried Apogee1 on N1 and AV on N2. AV came up as "another diabolist." I was hoping to be subtle about this, but I can see that it was both ham-fisted and suspicious to push them without claiming.

Since I haven't found the Contract Specialist yet, my gut reaction was to remain hidden, especially since the last Town-friendly neutral claim got murdered in the night. However, that's clearly not working, so I'm putting myself out there. AV is not a neutral, they are a wolf.

Does it strike anyone else was weird that there are supposedly two "town friendly" Neutrals? (Bold mine) Fae Noble is a little balanced in itself but ultimately wants the Wolves dead. And our other options for a Neutral are:

Goblin, who explicitly can find a Neutral and is supposed to kill them.

or

Rogue Diabolist, who explicitly can find a Wolf and is supposed to kill them.

or

Party Of Rogues if they end up claiming a fun Neutral role.




I guess we need Party Of Rogues to claim before we can be sure of anything but I wouldn't expect an 11 player game with 7 town, 2 Town Aligned Neutrals, and 2 Wolves. I could see a 7-1-3 split with Rogue Diabolist as the only Neutral buffing town's scrying? Maybe?? Something just doesn't sit right with me on that claim.

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Vote Count
Party of Rogues (4): gac3, Elenna, The Outsider, CaoimhinTheCape


Not Voting (3): AvatarVecna, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1

[Elenna]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure at this point that the wolves are POR and one of Outsider or AV. Cao can't be a wolf unless PartyOfRouges counterclaims Novice Dabbler. (And honestly, if POR does counterclaim I'll almost certainly still vote POR, Cao's posts look so much more townie and helpful.)

I agree that it seems really weird to have so many town-sided Neutrals, that's part of the reason that I think one of Outsider or AV is lying. (The other part is just process of elimination.) Also, 3 neutrals feels like too many for an 11-player game.

Would still appreciate a claim from POR.

We were getting to near end-of-day, and there had still been a serious wagon on the seer. At the time of my vote change, it was 3 on Mornshine, 3 on gac. I didn't vote to kill Mornshine, I voted to save gac..which you also did, not all that long after. And unless the wolf team is somehow gac/Elenna, you're seer-cleared now, so I have no idea why you're casting shade on me for doing literally the thing you did a little while after I did it.

Oh, I was thinking of it as a vote to kill Mornshine, but if I think of it as a vote to save gac then that does make sense. I guess I thought my wagon was larger than it actually was.

AV's claim reads as plausible to me? There's a lot of details which seem harder to make up. And AV does get points for hinting at wanting to discuss the contract specialist argument D2. OTOH AV is definitely smart enough to think of a fake-claim in advance and start dropping hints for it.
Also, AV's claim provides a reasonable answer to why wolf!Outsider would have suggested that "a wolf got the contract" theory, so Outsider loses some of the townie points I was giving them for that.

That said, if we believe AV's claim, then that only leaves three potential wolves. I think it's time town started claiming. Especially the other novice dabbler, who is now vanilla town.

I think I should avoid claiming just yet, in the hopes that I mess up the wolves' plans and also just in case POR fake-claims my role.

[PartyOfRogues]

I am the other Novice Dabbler, and I can actually support my claim, Cap was the other ND, and if you look at his strange post from last night:

Probably one reading is now decisive.

First letter of each word except is (in italic) spells POR is ND, or PartyOfRogues is Novice Dabbler, now would you like to explain yourself CaoimhinTheCape

[gac3]

I am the other Novice Dabbler, and I can actually support my claim, Cap was the other ND, and if you look at his strange post from last night:

First letter of each word except is (in italic) spells POR is ND, or PartyOfRogues is Novice Dabbler, now would you like to explain yourself CaoimhinTheCape

Oooo.... Given how weird I found that post.. this is very convincing... What did you all do night 2?

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It's also worth noting that AV switching to Mornshine took me from tied (50/50 chance of going home) to safe (barring surprise votes and hijinks)

[PartyOfRogues]

Oooo.... Given how weird I found that post.. this is very convincing... What did you all do night 2?

See if anyone visited you, presumed you were more likely to be killed, but only Elenna targeted you and she’s safe

[gac3]

Ah interesting. Elenna, care to claim now?

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This Elenna fact could be a deal breaker. I don't see any wolf watching roles but we will see.

[Elenna]

I am the other Novice Dabbler, and I can actually support my claim, Cap was the other ND, and if you look at his strange post from last night:

First letter of each word except is (in italic) spells POR is ND, or PartyOfRogues is Novice Dabbler, now would you like to explain yourself CaoimhinTheCape

...Huh. That actually seems pretty legit. Guess I'm switching my vote to CaoimhinTheCape.

Ah interesting. Elenna, care to claim now?

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This Elenna fact could be a deal breaker. I don't see any wolf watching roles but we will see.

I'm the Witch Hunter - I can either bane or kill someone each night. I baned myself N1 because I didn't see any better targets, and baned gac N2 because seer.

It's technically possible that wolf!POR could have gotten a watching power from the Contract Specialist (although I don't think there were any vote shenanigans D2?) or that the wolves could have scried me and guessed that I would target gac last night. But the combination of Cap's hint plus POR knowing who I targeted is definitely enough to make me believe them.

[gac3]

CaiomintheCape

[The Outsider]

Wow. That's some rather impressive foresight. Props to you, Cap. Switching my vote to CaoiminhTheCape

[gac3]

So 7 people left.

Town:
Apogee
Gac3
Elenna
Either POR or CTC

Neutral:
Either outsider or AV

Wolves:
X2

4-1-2

Assuming we lynch one of the claimed novice dabblers, things play out like this.

Kill the fake.
4-1-1
Bane me. Elenna probably NK.
3-1-1
I scried one of the two left and we win.

We kithe real.
3-1-2
Elenna kills the fake and I die to a NK.
2-1-1
We lynch the last wolf and win or lynch the neutral and
2-0-1
Elenna and the wolf kill eachother and town wins

Some wolf powers could mess with this some but I feel good overall.

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So possible wolf roles for the second wolf

Charmer-not there. That's good.
Scourge-could be bad but if lynch right today I'm not sure it will matter
Garrus - our best case scenario
Hound - could be a problem but depends on which one is the hound
Corruptor - only a problem if the neutrals are being picked based on my Scry

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I went through and gathered notes about all the suspects. It is worth noting I only really reread their stuff, not most other posts, and I was too lazy to do a full ISO. It's also no colored with my opinions (as much as I could) but rather just tried to state the events.

Spoiler: Gathered Notes

Show

Avatar Vecna
Also pushed conversation
Didn’t notice RA’s claim (neither did I but AV usually pays more attention than I do)
AV posts a big long analysis right at the start of day 2 about the missing vote, basically stating they were one of the three most likely to have it and then claimed town
Did lots of ISO
Left vote on claimed innocent until confirmed (Null probably because AV used the innocent claim once and totally was lying)
Spends a lot of time early day 2 focusing on the missing vote considering the claim of just being afraid to come out and wanting to wait to check the win con
Thoroughly questions my logic with defending Cap
Theorized about me having taken the deal but said “Mind you, I don't think that's what happened, I'm just entertaining notions. *shrugs*”
IOS on Cape is a null/slightly town lean
Had lots of questions about how cap could know I was scried town and then just accepted the answer of “I’m not telling you anything more”
Blatantly ignored my statement that the inquisitor didn’t scry me and it had to be another roll by telling me that they wanted facts, not speculation
Seems frustrated with my claim
Cast a vote that took me from a tie to not being lynched
Outsider
Outsider was the first to point out the missing vote… then was the first to imply that
Outsider was the first to come up with the contract specialist theory
Outsider proposed after the first lynch that Xihirli might be the roll they are now claiming, though quickly retracted it
Outsider pitches the “wolf got the contract specialist deal, which means the seer should totally focus on those people”
Talks about getting quiet people talking day 2
Actively calls out POR for being silent
Argues that I’m likely a wolf because wolves didn’t kill me (technically a point I brought up first but that wasn’t referenced in the post)


POR
Gives minimal reads, claims to think AV town and Outsider not wolfish
In response to Cap, defends the idea that I might take a power to scry as town
Recognized my claim
CTC
The first person pushing for discussion
Pushes the fact that I should have moved my vote after realizing RA claimed
Pushes against the idea that the contract specialist deal went to a wolf
Worth noting that Cap revealing I was scried was a direct response to Cape trying to make me out as a wolf

[AvatarVecna]

I am the other Novice Dabbler, and I can actually support my claim, Cap was the other ND, and if you look at his strange post from last night:

First letter of each word except is (in italic) spells POR is ND, or PartyOfRogues is Novice Dabbler, now would you like to explain yourself CaoimhinTheCape

That's pretty damning evidence, and there's basically no other way that post makes sense. CaoimhinTheCape

Oooo.... Given how weird I found that post.. this is very convincing... What did you all do night 2?

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It's also worth noting that AV switching to Mornshine took me from tied (50/50 chance of going home) to safe (barring surprise votes and hijinks)

...I mean...if we wanna be really technical it actually kinda didn't. >.>

[gac3]

That's pretty damning evidence, and there's basically no other way that post makes sense. CaoimhinTheCape



...I mean...if we wanna be really technical it actually kinda didn't. >.>

Really? I thought my vote had tied it. To be fair, I hadn't fact checked.

Edit: wording might have been a stretch but your vote switch made me no longer tied and Mornshine the one to be lynched, which was the point.

[AvatarVecna]

Really? I thought my vote had tied it. To be fair, I hadn't fact checked.

Edit: wording might have been a stretch but your vote switch made me no longer tied and Mornshine the one to be lynched.

No, it's a matter of timing. I did hop on and attempt to switch my vote to MornShine at the time, but because I was rushing and on mobile I ****ed up. I did successfully remove my old vote, but I ****ed up typing the color on my new vote. It was a little bit later that I came back and edited to fix that (although you can still see the other errors in that post >.>), and that fixing-edit was after Elenna voted to save you as well. So unless my ****ed-up vote would've counted anyway, technically Elenna is the one who officially took you from tied to safe.

[gac3]

No, it's a matter of timing. I did hop on and attempt to switch my vote to MornShine at the time, but because I was rushing and on mobile I ****ed up. I did successfully remove my old vote, but I ****ed up typing the color on my new vote. It was a little bit later that I came back and edited to fix that (although you can still see the other errors in that post >.>), and that fixing-edit was after Elenna voted to save you as well. So unless my ****ed-up vote would've counted anyway, technically Elenna is the one who officially took you from tied to safe.

I honestly don't really care about the facts stated above. The issue is I don't know if it makes you look wolf or town. The actions you are claiming to, could easily have been wolfy but the fact you are correcting me when I didn't even realize makes it seem more town. Curse you and trying to read you.

[AvatarVecna]

Here's one of those moments in the game where I really really wish that we had private communications.

[gac3]

Here's one of those moments in the game where I really really wish that we had private communications.

Same. Another time was when I scried Cap.

[AvatarVecna]

gac, would you agree that my logic on these paths looks correct?

This game is four townies, one neutral, and two wolves, with...let's say four of the townies verified, and neutral working with town to kill off the wolves.

D3: Wolf dies. T4/N1/W1
N3: Town dies. T3/N1/W1
D4: Wolf dies. T3/N1/W0. Game over, town and neutral win.

D3: Wolf dies. T4/N1/W1
N3: Town dies. T3/N1/W1
D4: Neutral is mislynched. T3/N0/W1
N4: Town dies. T2/N0/W1
D5: Wolf dies. Game over, town wins.

Alternatively...

D3: Neutral is mislynched. T4/N0/W2
N3: Town dies. T3/N0/W2
D4: Wolf dies. T3/N0/W1
N4: Town dies. T2/N0/W1
D5: Wolf dies. Game over, town wins.

[gac3]

gac, would you agree that my logic on these paths looks correct?

This game is four townies, one neutral, and two wolves, with...let's say four of the townies verified, and neutral working with town to kill off the wolves.

D3: Wolf dies. T4/N1/W1
N3: Town dies. T3/N1/W1
D4: Wolf dies. T3/N1/W0. Game over, town and neutral win.

D3: Wolf dies. T4/N1/W1
N3: Town dies. T3/N1/W1
D4: Neutral is mislynched. T3/N0/W1
N4: Town dies. T2/N0/W1
D5: Wolf dies. Game over, town wins.

Alternatively...

D3: Neutral is mislynched. T4/N0/W2
N3: Town dies. T3/N0/W2
D4: Wolf dies. T3/N0/W1
N4: Town dies. T2/N0/W1
D5: Wolf dies. Game over, town wins.

I mean yeah. That's basically what I got. Assuming we only have one mislynch and the wolves don't have any other powers or anything that would interfere with this result. We might even be able to pull it off sooner than that.

Narrowing it down to four choices, and pairs no less sets us up good.

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Also... This feels like AV confessing to being a wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

I mean yeah. That's basically what I got. Assuming we only have one mislynch and the wolves don't have any other powers or anything that would interfere with this result. We might even be able to pull it off sooner than that.

Narrowing it down to four choices, and pairs no less sets us up good.

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Also... This feels like AV confessing to being a wolf.

That is correct.

I'm the Contract Specialist. Congratulations, the game is over, wolves surrender!

All the dead can come out and share their perspective on how things went in the game! *confetti noises*

...except wait, no. That first part is correct, and that second part is correct. But...the third isn't.

[gac3]

Is "third part" the third paragraph or the third sentence.