Wildbow's Pact Mafia

[AvatarVecna]

Is "third part" the third paragraph or the third sentence.

I'm telling the truth about my role, and about surrendering. But I also know for a fact that wolves surrendering doesn't end the game.

[gac3]

Interesting... Outsider, care to explain?

[AvatarVecna]

Interesting... Outsider, care to explain?

Nah, looks like they went to bed about an hour ago, and I kinda really wanna discuss strategy for a bit.

Captain Cap dies.
The Outsider is the Ghoul, a neutral.
Ghoul - Neutral (Serial Killer role). Win condition: survive until all Town and Wolf are dead.
Each Day and each Night, you can eat the body of someone who died in a previous Phase. You gain 1 use of their power, which can be used any following phase. (Night powers during Night; Day powers during Day.) You can use multiple powers in the same phase, if you have multiple options. Passive powers may or may not work (you find out after you eat the person).
You cannot use the powers of wolves, but do get a ‘power usage’ for the purposes below by eating them.
You can expend 2 power usages to gain a night-kill, but cannot later eat the corpse of whoever you kill.
If you would be killed and have 3 power usages, you do not die but lose all power usages.

If you are voided while attempting a night-kill, you don't lose the power usages.
You can eat the corpse of the Narrator.

[gac3]

And you discovered this how?

[AvatarVecna]

And you discovered this how?

Cao is Garrus, our scryer.

[gac3]

Oh wow. It gives a full description? Makes sense I suppose.

On a related note, if you surrender, what does that mean? Do you two leave? Do you continue playing but can't win? Does it mean nothing until your surrender might actually end the game meaning that if we take out the serial killer but you then have the majority that town still loses?

[AvatarVecna]

Oh wow. It gives a full description? Makes sense I suppose.

On a related note, if you surrender, what does that mean? Do you two leave? Do you continue playing but can't win? Does it mean nothing until your surrender might actually end the game meaning that if we take out the serial killer but you then have the majority that town still loses?

It's an interesting question. Certainly at the very least "surrender" would have to wait until Cao gets online to agree on that, but even if we hadn't, he's caught today and I'm caught tomorrow and there was literally no way around that. But what happens afterword is questionable. The only thing I'm really sure of is that the game doesn't end when Cao gets online, because there's still somebody left who wants to kill everybody.

[gac3]

It's an interesting question. Certainly at the very least "surrender" would have to wait until Cao gets online to agree on that, but even if we hadn't, he's caught today and I'm caught tomorrow and there was literally no way around that. But what happens afterword is questionable. The only thing I'm really sure of is that the game doesn't end when Cao gets online, because there's still somebody left who wants to kill everybody.

So strategy would depend on what happens to you two and what Outsider chooses to do.

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Since we have time, I'm going to wait until I hear more about how to proceed but with this information, I don't think town can lose against either faction on its own.

[The Outsider]

Yeah, no. If the wolves surrender, I'm bowing out as well. Thanks to the reveal, even with all the corpses I've saved up I don't have a way to survive both being voted and murdered by Elenna. Town wins, GG.

Side notes:
-I HATE playing the serial killer. With a passion.
-AV, I was far less frustrated that my theory was wrong (though I am kicking myself for not thinking of the contract specialist giving themselves the power) and more frustrated that you took the exact role and strategy I was planning to use for your claim. Also that my attempts to be subtle were... less than.
-Your corpses would have been delicious.

[gac3]

This is the worst case scenario for town that I can think of, now that we have all of the information. Any other result is easier.

Surrender is canceled. Either Cao doesn't want to or JL rules that you can't surrender until the serial killer is gone. That's all worst case. It means town now has to eliminate all three of you.

Since the narrator counts, we have up to 12 people. Narrator plus four deaths equals five power uses for Outsider as of today. So it's unclear if the power use for night kill is a exchange at the time of kill or if they can be pre-exchanged. If they can be pre-exchanged then it is safe to assume that once outsider ate Cap's body today, they gained a night kill, leaving them with three power uses which would allow them to survive a death. This also assumes outsider did not use any of the powers, which I probably wouldn't have in their place.

Day 3, We lynch Outsider, there should still be plenty of time to do switch that as there is like 36 hours left in the day. Outsider survives but looses all power uses. 4-1-2
Night 3 Elenna kills outsider. outsider kills a townie and the wolves kill a different townie. One of which is probably Elenna but the other won't matter because Elenna is the only powered role left.
2-0-2
Day 4, A random wolf or townie is lynched (if Apogee shows up to vote which cannot be banked on)
And actually, that's almost guaranteed lost. Town would have to win a coin toss twice to win and Apogee would have to vote.

That's worst case. Plenty of details and options other than that.


Edit: Ninja'd. GG. I'll wait for Jeen to call it though.

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, no. If the wolves surrender, I'm bowing out as well. Thanks to the reveal, even with all the corpses I've saved up I don't have a way to survive both being voted and murdered by Elenna. Town wins, GG.

Side notes:
-I HATE playing the serial killer. With a passion.
-AV, I was far less frustrated that my theory was wrong (though I am kicking myself for not thinking of the contract specialist giving themselves the power) and more frustrated that you took the exact role and strategy I was planning to use for your claim. Also that my attempts to be subtle were... less than.
-Your corpses would have been delicious.

I knew full well why you were frustrated. Or rather, I didn't think you were claiming goblin, but I knew what kinda path you'd have to take to achieve victory. It's really easy if all wolves die, and then you can murder town freely with your built-up charges, and it's basically impossible if wolves throw. Our path to victory was getting town to mislynch two days in a row, but with Cap's message clearing POR, that became impossible. This was the only way.

Incidentally, here's probably my favorite moment from the game:

Mind you, I don't think that's what happened, I'm just entertaining notions. *shrugs*

I actually had to stop myself from saying "I'm just playing devil's advocate" here.

[gac3]

*rubs temples*

If anything, I wish your reticence had been shared by others.

And the award for best acting goes to AV for being a wolf that makes me feel guilty for outing myself to the wolves and then doesn't even kill me for it.

[AvatarVecna]

And the award for best acting goes to AV for being a wolf that makes me feel guilty for outing myself to the wolves and then doesn't even kill me for it.

We scried POR N1. We figured out right around the exact moment you did that Cap was the other Novice Dabbler, and that means the NDs used their scry N1 and still had watch/motion detector/bane available. Even if there wasn't a baner in the game (which, TO implied Elenna is the baner/vig?), we knew killing you would be a bad idea no matter what power was used, so we decided to take out one of the NDs instead. We went for Cap hoping he wouldn't be baned and that we could fake a Dabbler claim today, but...well, you saw how that went.

[gac3]

Makes sense but still. Also, I do have to say, claiming has statistically worked out so well for me. One day I'm just going to claim in my opening post and see how that goes.

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Also, I kept almost scrying AV but kinda figured if they survived very long, they were a wolf. I just hadn't decided what day I considered that to be.

[The Outsider]

The way I'd calculated things, though, wolves were actually dying too fast. If you died today and Caoiminh died tomorrow (or vice versa) I would be left with too many confirmed townies, too few corpses, and a loss. The only way I saw myself winning was to lynch a wolf today, a townie tomorrow, the last wolf the day after, and then use my stored powers to kill people before they could suspect I wanted them dead. Still a long shot, but better than nothing.

Then literally everything unraveled at once. Not gonna lie, it was an impressive spiral of mutually-assured destruction.

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Wow that post lagged. Remind me to quote the post I'm replying to in the future.

[gac3]

What was the logic of killing Xihirli.

[AvatarVecna]

There was a potential path to victory for us if TO dug in his heels today. I convince town that ghoul needs to die before wolves (which...tbh is kinda true), neutral is lynched, elenna banes in the night, two townies die in the night as a hail mary from TO and wolves, and we're going into D4 with T2/N1/W2 with TO at no charges (or at least, not enough to survive another lynch). At that point, town is screwed and would have to decide who they're handing victory to.

Alas.

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What was the logic of killing Xihirli.

I was convinced Xihirli was claiming Rogue Diabolist and was after my head. I mean, there's other good reasons to vote Xihirli regardless - namely, that Xihirli is a scary player if she's allowed to live too long - but that was the primary reason.

Correct, I'll be baning you tonight.

Given Xi's description of her role, she's likely the...I forget the name, but the one that hunts for the Contract Specialist (me). She'll be the kill target tonight, both to deny info on the D1 lynch, to avoid her potentially outing me tomorrow if she gets a lucky scry, and just generally because Xihirli is a dangerous player.

[JeenLeen]

If all wolves and serial killer all decide to surrender, game ends in a Town win. However, (though I have not done the math), I can see wolves or serial killer potentially winning based on town actions and how they play off each other...

If you are really surrendering, please declare it in your QuickTopics, ideally in bold to help me see it <b></b>. I will not reveal one way or another until I get a definite answer from all players (want to let them lie here if they are lying)

[Elenna]

Cool, that works.
I hadn't gotten around to doing the math and making a post yet, but I was mostly worried about the chance that Outsider and AV were both wolves (i.e. we started out with 7-1-3, which would not be an unreasonable distribution imo). I was thinking of suggesting that I kill either Outsider or AV tonight and then town lynches the other one tomorrow. Not sure if that works given that Outsider needs to be killed twice.

We scried POR N1. We figured out right around the exact moment you did that Cap was the other Novice Dabbler, and that means the NDs used their scry N1 and still had watch/motion detector/bane available. Even if there wasn't a baner in the game (which, TO implied Elenna is the baner/vig?), we knew killing you would be a bad idea no matter what power was used, so we decided to take out one of the NDs instead. We went for Cap hoping he wouldn't be baned and that we could fake a Dabbler claim today, but...well, you saw how that went.

I claimed baner/vig earlier, yeah.

There was a potential path to victory for us if TO dug in his heels today. I convince town that ghoul needs to die before wolves (which...tbh is kinda true), neutral is lynched, elenna banes in the night, two townies die in the night as a hail mary from TO and wolves, and we're going into D4 with T2/N1/W2 with TO at no charges (or at least, not enough to survive another lynch). At that point, town is screwed and would have to decide who they're handing victory to.

Alas.

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I was convinced Xihirli was claiming Rogue Diabolist and was after my head. I mean, there's other good reasons to vote Xihirli regardless - namely, that Xihirli is a scary player if she's allowed to live too long - but that was the primary reason.

Wait, TO doesn't have a kill if we lynch them today, I thought? Because they're out of power usages? (I mean, assuming you told the truth in that quoted role description...)
So if we lynch TO today and I kill him tonight, then it's T3/W2 and town wins?

If TO has a kill tonight I might be better off trying to guess right with a bane, and then if that succeeds it would be a matter of hoping we could play you against each other and hoping to win lynch coinflips.

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Also: Rogue Diabolist doesn't have a way to prove themselves as far as I know? I mean, Xi could just have been lying about that, but it seems likely to get her killed.

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It probably doesn't matter anymore because of surrenders, but I'll switch my vote to The Outsider just in case.

[Apogee1]

This is the worst case scenario for town that I can think of, now that we have all of the information. Any other result is easier.

Surrender is canceled. Either Cao doesn't want to or JL rules that you can't surrender until the serial killer is gone. That's all worst case. It means town now has to eliminate all three of you.

Since the narrator counts, we have up to 12 people. Narrator plus four deaths equals five power uses for Outsider as of today. So it's unclear if the power use for night kill is a exchange at the time of kill or if they can be pre-exchanged. If they can be pre-exchanged then it is safe to assume that once outsider ate Cap's body today, they gained a night kill, leaving them with three power uses which would allow them to survive a death. This also assumes outsider did not use any of the powers, which I probably wouldn't have in their place.

Day 3, We lynch Outsider, there should still be plenty of time to do switch that as there is like 36 hours left in the day. Outsider survives but looses all power uses. 4-1-2
Night 3 Elenna kills outsider. outsider kills a townie and the wolves kill a different townie. One of which is probably Elenna but the other won't matter because Elenna is the only powered role left.
2-0-2
Day 4, A random wolf or townie is lynched (if Apogee shows up to vote which cannot be banked on)
And actually, that's almost guaranteed lost. Town would have to win a coin toss twice to win and Apogee would have to vote.

That's worst case. Plenty of details and options other than that.


Edit: Ninja'd. GG. I'll wait for Jeen to call it though.

I'm here and will be here more d3-d4 sorry just got absolutely swamped over the weekend but I'll vote.

Catching up and trying to grok all the mechanics moving around right now.

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So if I understand everything correctly the game looks like this

AV and Cao are wolves

Outsider is a neutral SK

The rest of us are town
That being
Me -- Innocent
Gac -- seer
PartyofRogues -- the other half of ND
Elenna - Witch Hunter


And pretty much every faction has a low chance of winning which is why surrendering is being thrown about?

Ok gac's post explained most of that well

And we pretty much have to vote/shoot the outsider

Unless wait

If we vote Cao/shoot AV or vis versa

We end up 2 v 1 tomorrow

Nope that's a loss too

So we hope for coinflips I guess

[JeenLeen]

The game has not ended.

[PartyOfRogues]

I think the talk about surrender is because the interesting part of the game is already over, we know who everyone is and what they’ll probably do, surrender simply ends the game quicker rather than waiting another 5-6 days

[gac3]

I'm here and will be here more d3-d4 sorry just got absolutely swamped over the weekend but I'll vote.

Catching up and trying to grok all the mechanics moving around right now.

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So if I understand everything correctly the game looks like this

AV and Cao are wolves

Outsider is a neutral SK

The rest of us are town
That being
Me -- Innocent
Gac -- seer
PartyofRogues -- the other half of ND
Elenna - Witch Hunter


And pretty much every faction has a low chance of winning which is why surrendering is being thrown about?

Ok gac's post explained most of that well

And we pretty much have to vote/shoot the outsider

Unless wait

If we vote Cao/shoot AV or vis versa

We end up 2 v 1 tomorrow

Nope that's a loss too

So we hope for coinflips I guess

I'm going to think on this in case CTC doesn't surrender but with you here, I'm pretty sure we can set it up to guarantee a victory, but I'll double check that shortly.

On the other hand, don't worry about the having been less active. I a wasn't trying to call you out. I was just explaining worst case especially since I didn't know what caused it. But real life comes first. I didn't mean anything by it.

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First thing we do is lynch Outsider

[JeenLeen]

I think the talk about surrender is because the interesting part of the game is already over, we know who everyone is and what they’ll probably do, surrender simply ends the game quicker rather than waiting another 5-6 days

I'm going to think on this in case CTC doesn't surrender but with you here, I'm pretty sure we can set it up to guarantee a victory, but I'll double check that shortly.

If it really is inevitable (and I can be convinced of that), I'll call the game. But at the least work-busy has me unable to really double-check all that, so I doubt I'll have time to read and think well enough to be convinced one way or another.

By the break of the next Day, I reckon it will either be inevitable or a very tight finish to play to the end. Just not sure which, and don't want to give away what could let it go one way or another. But that's why I'm hesitant to call it now.

EDIT: and, if all living "evil" roles want to surrender, I'll call it at that stage. To evil roles, let me know in your QT as needed.

[PartyOfRogues]

Anyways, lynching Outsider

[Apogee1]

I'm going to think on this in case CTC doesn't surrender but with you here, I'm pretty sure we can set it up to guarantee a victory, but I'll double check that shortly.

On the other hand, don't worry about the having been less active. I a wasn't trying to call you out. I was just explaining worst case especially since I didn't know what caused it. But real life comes first. I didn't mean anything by it.

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First thing we do is lynch Outsider

No worries on your end you definitely didn't say anything wrong

I do like to try to be active and felt bad I wasn't though

The Outsider

I'll do this.

[gac3]

Okay today, everyone but outsider is best suited for lynching them. Because nobody needs to see them have more kills.

Day 3: Outsider survives the lynch
4-1-2 (0 charges: 0 consumable bodies)

Night 3: I think Elenna is better suited if she kills than if she tries to bane but if someone disagrees then sure. That said assuming wolves and survivor shoot two different townies, I'm thinking Elenna kills AV. There is also the chance that when we take away TO's charges that they won't actually be able to night kill, which makes this an even better scenario.
2-1-1 (0 charges: 1 consumable body)

Day 4: This leaves probably RA and Apogee against Outsider against Cape. I assume Elenna will die because powers and I will die because I keep doing this. So town picks a bad guy to lynch and the bad guys have to choose to try to tie and risk their life or join the wagon against the other. So that's where things get complicated. (1 charge at start of day)

Whoever we choose, the other person has the following option:
Join against town or join against the other.

It's the same scenario for either person. So let's just say Cape is on the chopping block.

Outsider could vote Cape and then it's 2v1 and outsider can night kill and have a 50/50 chance of winning.

Or outsider could vote for a townie making it 1v1v1. But then there are two possible night kills. Outsider could kill cape and then have a 50/50 chance of winning versus town or kill town and have a 50/50 chance of winning versus cape. But what does cape do? If Outsider chooses town, cape could choose outsider and win. So really both would hope that the other would choose town so they could shoot the other.

No guarantees victory turns out. But keep in mind, if outsider can't night kill tonight once we lynch them, then it is guaranteed pretty much.

[The Outsider]

We're not surrendering? Alright then.

Not that I blame y'all for getting rid of my power usages, but... aren't we following the exact plan that AV laid out for the wolves to win? Lynch me, a bunch of people die at night, lynch me again, Town gets screwed by lack of people?

[gac3]

We're not surrendering? Alright then.

Not that I blame y'all for getting rid of my power usages, but... aren't we following the exact plan that AV laid out for the wolves to win? Lynch me, a bunch of people die at night, lynch me again, Town gets screwed by lack of people?

So if we lynch you today, you can kill tonight?

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Also do you have a better plan?

[Elenna]

Yeah I really want to know if Outsider can survive a lynch today and then kill tonight.

I'm mildly paranoid that AV edited Outsider's role description to influence this somehow, but assuming the description is accurate, I'm reading it to mean that a) if Outsider survives a lynch/NK, they lose all their stored power usages, not just three of them and b) they can only eat one body each phase. In that case, they wouldn't be able to build up two power usages tonight, after losing all of them EoD, and they wouldn't be able to kill tonight. But maybe I'm misinterpreting that.

@The Outsider: Yes, we are following what AV said, at least for today. I think it likely ends in coinflips, rather than guaranteed loss for town. Got any arguments for why we shouldn't lynch you today? I'm willing to listen to alternate plans.