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  1. - Top - End - #211
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Just woke up. There's two surrenders in the wolfchat. I wonder why the game is still going.


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  2. - Top - End - #212
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    We're not surrendering? Alright then.

    Not that I blame y'all for getting rid of my power usages, but... aren't we following the exact plan that AV laid out for the wolves to win? Lynch me, a bunch of people die at night, lynch me again, Town gets screwed by lack of people?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Just woke up. There's two surrenders in the wolfchat. I wonder why the game is still going.
    So... all three of you are either claiming or implying you've posted a surrender?

    Best guess is that either someone didn't really want to surrender but wants to look like they're cooperating with town, or Outsider missed the message to explicitly surrender in their QT.

    Personally, I haven't done the full math yet, but I figure if Outsider gets a kill tonight, then everyone has at least a slim chance. If not, I think town wins. I'm down to play through the game, either way.
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  3. - Top - End - #213
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    So... all three of you are either claiming or implying you've posted a surrender?
    That's what happens when the DM makes "collective surrender" a private thing instead of a public one, apparently.


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  4. - Top - End - #214
    Halfling in the Playground
     
    Flumph

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Well, someone's lying. And it ain't me, I've already made my thoughts on this role quite clear.

    Yes, we are following what AV said, at least for today. I think it likely ends in coinflips, rather than guaranteed loss for town. Got any arguments for why we shouldn't lynch you today? I'm willing to listen to alternate plans.
    See, this where I'd love to be clever and suggest some new angle that hasn't been considered. But really, I've got nothing. I was expecting the game to be over.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  5. - Top - End - #215
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    So... all three of you are either claiming or implying you've posted a surrender?

    Best guess is that either someone didn't really want to surrender but wants to look like they're cooperating with town, or Outsider missed the message to explicitly surrender in their QT.

    Personally, I haven't done the full math yet, but I figure if Outsider gets a kill tonight, then everyone has at least a slim chance. If not, I think town wins. I'm down to play through the game, either way.
    Yeah, I've posted in the private chat that I'm cool with surrendering. I'll play out the rest of the game if people are up for it but I can also vouch for AV surrendering.

    Rest of the game would amount to which actions people (read: Wolves, Elenna, Outsider) choose at night and then depending on who is left what the lynch is. I don't see much room for discussion though so it's not like playing it out would be super exciting or anything.

    I did out a lot of the math and there's a lot of ways this can play out but it seems like Town comes out on top most often.

  6. - Top - End - #216
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Well, someone's lying. And it ain't me, I've already made my thoughts on this role quite clear.



    See, this where I'd love to be clever and suggest some new angle that hasn't been considered. But really, I've got nothing. I was expecting the game to be over.
    Just checking - you've posted, in bold, in your QT that you want to surrender?

    Because I'm willing to believe that AV is lying to create paranoia or to make wolves seem like less of a threat or something, but I'd rather make sure it's not a communication issue first.
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  7. - Top - End - #217
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Actually, once this is actually confirmed to be over I'll spell out my thinking since if we're playing, well, we're playing.

  8. - Top - End - #218
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    I have no interest in playing this out. If you're going to insist on making us play this out, I'm voting you today, giving a random townie a bane power, and killing you tonight.

    - - - Updated - - -

    TheOutsider.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Not enough time left in the day for townie to accept, especially with none of them and JeenLeen not online exactly now anyway. Offering to a wolf, since we're both on.


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  9. - Top - End - #219
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Day ends in 24 hours. I believe.
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  10. - Top - End - #220
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Day ends in 24 hours. I believe.
    I coulda sworn we've been doing this day longer than that?


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  11. - Top - End - #221
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Yup, deadline is (would have been?) tomorrow.

    Vote Outsider

  12. - Top - End - #222
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Huh, looks like. Guess it only feels like forever. Alright, switching back then.


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  13. - Top - End - #223
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I coulda sworn we've been doing this day longer than that?
    It's been a long 24 hours. But yes, EoD is definitely tomorrow.

    Also, I could believe AV just getting frustrated and doing random stuff to end the game, but the paranoid part of me wonders if pointedly saying they gave Cao a bane is a way to deter me from night-killing one of them...
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  14. - Top - End - #224
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    It's been a long 24 hours. But yes, EoD is definitely tomorrow.

    Also, I could believe AV just getting frustrated and doing random stuff to end the game, but the paranoid part of me wonders if pointedly saying they gave Cao a bane is a way to deter me from night-killing one of them...
    The interesting part of the game is over, for me. I'm going to start working on L4D3, and if I still have to play, I know exactly who's at fault, and every aspect of my strategy is going to shift towards making them, specifically, lose.


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  15. - Top - End - #225
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    The interesting part of the game is over, for me. I'm going to start working on L4D3, and if I still have to play, I know exactly who's at fault, and every aspect of my strategy is going to shift towards making them, specifically, lose.
    Yeah, I guess the difference is that I really like this thing where all the powers are mostly known and we have to plan the best way to maximize chances of winning. (You can tell because I've been posting so much more today ). So I'm fine with playing through the rest of the game. I'd also be fine with ending it here and discussing openly, but I don't mind waiting to see what happens.

    That being said, I don't think anyone would mind if you opened recruitment for Left 4 Dead 3 now?
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  16. - Top - End - #226
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Yeah, I guess the difference is that I really like this thing where all the powers are mostly known and we have to plan the best way to maximize chances of winning. (You can tell because I've been posting so much more today ). So I'm fine with playing through the rest of the game. I'd also be fine with ending it here and discussing openly, but I don't mind waiting to see what happens.

    That being said, I don't think anyone would mind if you opened recruitment for Left 4 Dead 3 now?
    It's less interesting than it seems. I'll type up all scenarios when I get back from food.


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  17. - Top - End - #227
    Halfling in the Playground
     
    Flumph

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    I've surrendered- for real, this time, JeenLeen should be able to confirm once he(?) gets back on.

    Gods, this turned into a mess. Fun fact: Not only did I misunderstand how my powers work, I thought I had one more usage than I actually did. I hate being SK.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  18. - Top - End - #228
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I've surrendered- for real, this time, JeenLeen should be able to confirm once he(?) gets back on.

    Gods, this turned into a mess. Fun fact: Not only did I misunderstand how my powers work, I thought I had one more usage than I actually did. I hate being SK.
    Well, that explains that. I'm curious, would you have been able to kill tonight?
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  19. - Top - End - #229
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Given that Ghoul loses all charges when lynched, and can eat the narrator initially, I suspect the intention was for you to be burning through them from the start. Although I'm unsure if you can use a charge that you gained in the same phase or not.

    Contract Specialist could offer bane/watch/motion detect/scry/diabolist scry. If the deal is taken, the recipient loses their vote that day. And they know immediately at EoD that was the cost.

    I only ever considered offerong to a townie when I was considerong how best to throw the game out of spite.


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  20. - Top - End - #230
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    I was surprised by AV's intensity about quitting, especially since they said they were ready to talk strategy when they outed outsider.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also I did accidentally go back more than 10 games on Elenna simply because I found a link to corporate Mafia. Elenna was also a wolf in that game. Interestingly enough, that was also the only time I have ever been a wolf on this site. (Not counting crazy idea Mafia which had 1 non wolf.)

  21. - Top - End - #231
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I was surprised by AV's intensity about quitting, especially since they said they were ready to talk strategy when they outed outsider.
    Was willing to talk strategy because I figured TO wouldn't actually be on-board with quitting. Then they said they were and I mentally checked out. Then JeenLeen clarified in wolf QT that somebody elsewhere had refused to surrender gee I ****in wonder who. But also I started thinking through all the potential options and there's basically no good option.


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  22. - Top - End - #232
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    D3

    Lynching neutral is the only logical option for town and wolves. Neutral survives, but has 0 charges as a result.

    N3

    Elenna kills TO or AV or Cao. Wolves kill a townie and bane TO or AV or Cao.

    2/3 chance Elenna's kill goes through. Tomorrow is T3/N+W2, with no extra lives. Game over, town wins.

    1/3 chance Elenna's kill fails. Tomorrow is T3/N1/W2, with 0 charges.

    All odds from here on out are part of that 1/3 chance that town doesn't auto-win.

    D4

    Scum's only chance is to work together, but even then it's a coinflip which 3 person wagon bites the bullet.

    1/2 chance it's now T2/N1/W2. 1 charge.

    1/6 chance it's now T3/N0/W2.

    1/3 chance it's now T3/N1/W1. 1 charge.

    N4

    T2/N1/W2, wolves kill town or neutral.
    • 1/4 chance for T1/N1/W2, 2 charges.
    • 1/4 chance for T2/N0/W2


    1/6 T3/N0/W2 becomes T2/N0/W2

    1/3 T3/N1/W1 becomes T2/N1/W1. 2 charges.

    D5

    T1/N1/W2 sees neutral side with town now, while wolves vote to remove neutral, and it's another coinflip.
    • 1/8 chance for T1/N1/W1 and 2 charges.
    • 1/8 chance for T1/N0/W2.


    T2/N1/W1 sees neutral side with wolf, with town taking out neutral, and it's another coinflip.
    • 1/6 chance for T1/N1/W1 and 2 charges.
    • 1/6 chance for T2/N0/W1.


    5/12 T2/N0/W2 is a coinflip again.
    • 5/24 chance for T1/N0/W2.
    • 5/24 chance for T2/N0/W1.


    N5

    T1/N1/W1 with 2 charges. Wolves kill, but can't bane without having ruined their vote the previous day. Neutral spends charges for a kill. This splits into 4 possibilities:
    • T/T: 7/96 T0/N1/W1.
    • T/N: 7/96 Wolves win.
    • T/W: 7/96 Neutral wins.
    • N/W: 7/96 Town wins.


    1/3 chance of T1/N0/W2. That becomes T0/N0/W2. Wolves win.

    9/24 chance of T2/N0/W1. That becomes T1/N0/W1.

    D6

    T0/N1/W1 is a coinflip:
    • 7/192 Neutral wins.
    • 7/192 Wolves win.


    T1/N0/W1 is a coinflip:
    • 9/48 Neutral wins.
    • 9/48 Wolves win.


    Conclusion

    Town wins 398/576. Neutral wins 57/576. Scum wins 121/576. Some parts of these odds are dependent on outmaneuvering others players (primarily wolfbane vs townkill, and then neutralkill vs wolfkill), but a depressing number of them are literal coinflips performed by the narrator to determine who gets to continue having a chance to win.

    If town wins the initial maneuver struggle, they win outright. If town loses, then wolves probably win eventually just by the sheer fact they have full control over the nightkill and can reliably make the lynch draw into a coinflip. If wolves lose enough toincosses, neutral wins instead.

    This kind of high-stakes player-vs-player action is why I'm surrendering. There are three points where the game can be officially called: start of D4 (in 2 days), Start of D6 (in 5 days), or Start of N6 (in 6 days). If it were just town and wolves, we could probably do a gentlemen's agreement to call it at the start of D4, where if a wolf is dead town wins, and if both wolves live wolves win...but it's not just us. If we take it to that point, and town hasn't autowon, neutral's chances of winning just tripled, and TO might well want to see how it plays out. I, personally, am not interested in playing out the extra 4/5 days, because it could 100% be shortened to 4/5 hours. Nothing I've stated up there has any real flexibility: if anybody votes weirdly, or assigns kills weirdly, or wolves try to get a bane, they're basically throwing the game anyway. So either we play through for another week, every single one of us going through the motions of performing best play and hoping the coinflip favors us...

    ...or we quit now and give town the win, who quite frankly have earned it for having formed such a solid network going into D2 despite the lack of private communication.


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  23. - Top - End - #233
    Halfling in the Playground
     
    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post

    Town wins 398/576. Neutral wins 57/576. Scum wins 121/576. Some parts of these odds are dependent on outmaneuvering others players (primarily wolfbane vs townkill, and then neutralkill vs wolfkill), but a depressing number of them are literal coinflips performed by the narrator to determine who gets to continue having a chance to win.
    I'll trust the numbers

    Who has the d576

  24. - Top - End - #234
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I'll trust the numbers

    Who has the d576
    Lol. I mean the way things have gone today, it's more like 100% win for town. This is just the theorycrafting that explains why I think surrender is the move to make here. Playing through to D6 is fun if it's still guessing games and manipulation and who can you trust.


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  25. - Top - End - #235
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Yeah, that's a fair point about actions being predetermined from now on.

    I assume you deliberately chose to do the math as if lynch/kill targets are chosen completely randomly to avoid doing even more math
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  26. - Top - End - #236
    Halfling in the Playground
     
    Flumph

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Well, that explains that. I'm curious, would you have been able to kill tonight?
    No. Thanks to an earlier misunderstanding, I was under the impression that I'd only lose three charges if I were killed. This was clarified later, but it didn't really matter because I only would have had one charge left, and not the two I somehow thought I would have.

    I was 100% ready to pack it in until the narrator requested that we privately communicate our surrenders. At that point my incredibly tired brain decided that maybe I could use my one remaining charge to last a bit longer since I'd come this far. Then I realized that I was playing out an almost textbook example of sunk cost fallacy, since as AV pointed out the whole thing would have devolved into a numbers game that really wouldn't have been any fun.

    So yeah, GG. Despite being SK, this was actually a fun concept that I wouldn't mind trying again some time.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  27. - Top - End - #237
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    I have questions now... But the answers either won't help anything or would be bad for towns chances of victory if we did play this out, so I'm gonna wait to ask.

  28. - Top - End - #238
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Yeah, that's a fair point about actions being predetermined from now on.

    I assume you deliberately chose to do the math as if lynch/kill targets are chosen completely randomly to avoid doing even more math
    Kinda, yeah. There's actually one decision that I didn't bother mapping out: you could technically choose to bane a townie instead of killing a nontownie, but it's such a hilariously bad move and it's very immediately obvious that it's a bad move. If you bane to block our kill, that's a 1/4 chance town controls the lynch, and a 3/4 chance they don't. If you kill and I have to block it with our bane, that's a 2/3 chance town controls the lynch, and a 1/3 chance they don't. Choosing to bane instead of kill would be you deliberately lowering town's chance of autowinning from 2/3 to 1/4.

    Of course, those odds are only approximate, since those odds are about actually outplaying rather than literal rolls of the dice. It's possible that you're actually really bad at guessing who I'm going to bane, but scary good at guessing who I'm going to kill. But that's a weird assumption to make, and it could just as easily be the other way around, so I went with assuming random choice to map out all possibilities.


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  29. - Top - End - #239
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    AvatarVecna, Cao, and The Outsider have surrendered. Game Ends.

    The Town wins.
    Xihirli the Fae Noble wins
    (albeit only through a legal loophole, but that seems fitting--or, well, they would win if the game went to completion)

    As the day goes on, a cunning trick exposes the lawyers, who in turn expose the ghoul... and then they all realize they are defeated. The lawyers leave, implying they may return in the future. The ghoul is wounded, but creeps away to the shadows to return and feast again some other day. And, of the survivors, well, they must decide what to do with the remains of their town.

    Deadchat: https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/JEZ5VTK7sPRk

    And here's my commentary on the game, kept as the game went on:
    https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/w3xxaeGnr9g

    - - - Updated - - -

    Other Comments

    I thought Contract Specialist would be powerful to lure and tempt players into losing their vote, but didn't see how it was really a trade between wolves in practice. Also, the bane it offered couldn't bane the baner, so pretty limited. Its design was worse than intended.

    Sorry that The Outsider didn't like serial killer roles, but he did well with it!

    If Xihirli had lived N1, and town had QTs, we'd have had a towncore of Inquisitor, the Novice Dabblers, and Fae Noble. Sure, Fae Noble would be playing both sides to a degree, but a powerful unity. Especially if the Innocent joins it D2... or if rogue_alchemist had been active and become declared town D1 via power use (but I guess he would have killed Xihirli.)

    Chronomancer was never going to be in the game, since I couldn't think of a non-overpowered or too-convoluted power for him. I thought of borrowing Magik from the X-Men game, but didn't think I could keep it straight.


    EDIT: some ending thoughts remind me of playing RISK with my friends. One of them, if he realized he was going to lose, decided he would at least pick who wins by allying with someone. It was rather annoying to the rest of us.
    Last edited by JeenLeen; 2020-10-06 at 08:22 AM.

  30. - Top - End - #240
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Wildbow's Pact Mafia

    As I return from the dead, I want to confirm that my statements were really true: as Novice Dabblers, we could decide who was actually going to do the targeting (either one or both), thus technically I didn't scry gac3 the first night.

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