Left 4 Dead 3

[rogue_alchemist]

Sorry for the lateness, people, I was working on the math and just today I realized I missed the Family role (and consequently their ability to influence the number of Survivors in the game), so my approximations could be far less good than I thought (I'll still present the results, at least the general formula, for anyone curious and to prove some activity from my part).
I hope to redo the work on it as soon as possible (including Family in the calculations this time around).

About the lynching pending on me: unluckily for me, I can't really count on my role to prove my innocence (around 50%, more or less), so I'm not going to claim and reveal my powers.

About the discussion started by Caoihmin: I agree with most of what others pointed out. A chain is as strong as its weakest link, is said: a chain of QT may establish a "global" connection, but would be too sensible to wolves interference; moreover, you have to convince EVERYONE to make it effective and avoid a few votes lynching (we wouldn't even be able to distinguish between opportunist wolves and skeptic towns). My opinion is that everyone should do whatever they feel right: does that guy seems particularly trustworthy? let's open a link with him; does that guy give wolf vibes? why not lynch him? (However we could agree together to "impose" a sort threshold: if it's violated, inquiry would be a must)
About his other point: as others already said, it's a bit too risky (we probably don't have a lot of Baners around, given AvatarVecna said role repeats are not very likely, and if there's just one, the plan would fail catastrophically).

Here the calculations I made, but please keep these in mind:

• The result is an approximation (due to the assumptions made and because there are some unclear points in roles determination)
• The consequences of Family's inclusion are not considered (this could be particularly problematic)
• The number X of carriers chosen by the Mastermind is an unknown parameter

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@Avatarvecna Now that I think about it: does the Mastermind's inclusion and selection override the "normal" faction determination (X/10)? If that's the case, my calculation are even more wrong.

I glanced over your math, and I understand what you are trying to do to a large extent, however: your assumption of every role having equal probability is out because AV stated that certain roles wouldn't get used unless we have a lot of players. He also mentioned that his calculations have a formula to follow, meaning even if we knew for sure all the roles actually in the game, it wouldn't be even distribution. I also have a problem with assuming repeats are negligible. I think certain roles are more likely to repeat than others based on AV's comments.

All that being said, this is way more work than I would put into it and so I probably shouldn't be judging. I just don't think it'll ultimately be helpful this game. It would only be helpful if multiple versions of this game were to be played and we could refine the model as well as test it's validity.

Also most people such at statistics and don't realize a 99.9% chance still means it could be the opposite quite easily.

As everyone has now posted atleast once, I want to unvote and stop the train, but CaptainCap could still be a wolf who is trying to trick us with fancy math. Like I said I don't have time to double check his results.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'll sacrifice my vote for a QuickTopic today, so I'll leave it on Cao to protect him. It'll make it look like there's more votes than there are, if anyone isn't reading closely or forgets I'm doing this. (I'm also stating this explicitly to draw to people's minds that vote totals will be misleading in this game.)

Other Thoughts

For some reason I thought we were still at 11 players. Yeah, 3 wolves seems possible.

I'm the Spy, or, well, a Spy, or the Conspiracy Nut. If people want to try to coordinate with me, feel free. Or wait until D2 if someone vets me as town.

So... I don't like this plan of leaving your vote on me? By announcing it, people know that's what you're doing. I'm sure people are going to read closesly, but what does leaving the vote on me get you? At the end of the day, having your vote on me means you may have been the person who voted me.

As a Wolf, this means you can pass off blame for a vote against me to someone else. As Town, you're making yourself look Wolfish if I do end up dying (when I flip town).

I don't see how leaving your vote on me does anything but confuses town. If someone is looking to prove that they are making a QT, I'd suggest being the only vote on someone. That way when it comes up as 0 votes we're clear on what happened.

My opinion in general: don't leave a vote on someone you want to protect.



As for the claim... feels townish to me, but I'm worried about how this will go off. I have an idea on how you can use it, but not sure I want to put that plan in public. If you make a QT with me we can coordinate overnight.







Regarding Captain Cap, my gut instinct on him is Town? I feel like a Wolf would have put a vote on me out of self preservation and hope that some people on their wagon were making a QT

Going to throw my vote on PartyOfRogues for now since I don't think a vote on AvatarVecna is going to help anyone and I'd like to see more of them.

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Vote Count

Xihirli (1): Valmark
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Holy-hunter, gac3, JeenLeen
Captain Cap (4): rogue_alchemist, The Outsider, Xihirli, Apogee1
PartyofRogues (1): Unavenger, CaoimhinTheCape


Not Voting: Captain Cap

[Captain Cap]

I glanced over your math, and I understand what you are trying to do to a large extent, however: your assumption of every role having equal probability is out because AV stated that certain roles wouldn't get used unless we have a lot of players.

I think I missed that one. Was it stated in the recruitment thread?

[JeenLeen]

So... I don't like this plan of leaving your vote on me? By announcing it, people know that's what you're doing. I'm sure people are going to read closesly, but what does leaving the vote on me get you? At the end of the day, having your vote on me means you may have been the person who voted me.

As a Wolf, this means you can pass off blame for a vote against me to someone else. As Town, you're making yourself look Wolfish if I do end up dying (when I flip town).

I don't see how leaving your vote on me does anything but confuses town. If someone is looking to prove that they are making a QT, I'd suggest being the only vote on someone. That way when it comes up as 0 votes we're clear on what happened.

My opinion in general: don't leave a vote on someone you want to protect.

Fair point. I do think there's a chance someone will forget and not re-read closely near end-of-day, so it winds up helping protect. But it does cast suspicion on me if you die and flip Town, and that doesn't help the Town one bit.
So JeenLeen.

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By the way, while I think AV is not doing anything odd and voting her will do nothing and be an invalid vote, I am glad somebody is doing that just to check on things.

[Valmark]

As everyone has now posted atleast once, I want to unvote and stop the train, but CaptainCap could still be a wolf who is trying to trick us with fancy math. Like I said I don't have time to double check his results.

Am I the only one that gets a bad feeling from these words? Like... You want to leave the wagon but will remain because whatever?

Note: that's the feel I get, not what the words written actually mean.

Yeaaaah rogue_alchemist.

[gac3]

So I don't need to advise people not to claim to Jeen based on this claim right? Set up a QT if you want but I mean, we might want to wait for some kind of proof before we claim.

I also don't get that part about leaving their vote to protect the person being vote for. 1. That just doesn't make much sense to me. 2. It would do more good if we didn't know it was a fake vote.

I agree with Valmark about RA's comment looking suspicious. In fact I might even switch to them for now. I was going to be all "it's day one so maybe they just meant they didn't have a better reason to switch to anyone yet" but then I realized that I didn't have a better reason to vote than this weirdness so... RogueAlchemist

[JeenLeen]

So I don't need to advise people not to claim to Jeen based on this claim right? Set up a QT if you want but I mean, we might want to wait for some kind of proof before we claim.

I also don't get that part about leaving their vote to protect the person being vote for. 1. That just doesn't make much sense to me. 2. It would do more good if we didn't know it was a fake vote.

Agreeing on both points. And, for the second point, noting I did move my non-vote from Cao to myself.

[gac3]

Agreeing on both points. And, for the second point, noting I did move my non-vote from Cao to myself.

Yeah. That's fine. Doesn't mean much on its own am still going to keep it in mind moving forward.

[The Outsider]

So, is it a problem that I don't really understand Captain Cap's math at all? Because I haven't taken a math course since high school, and I don't think I've ever taken a statistics class. Is their math accurate? Does it have any glaring flaws aside from the ones already noted?

[Valmark]

So, is it a problem that I don't really understand Captain Cap's math at all? Because I haven't taken a math course since high school, and I don't think I've ever taken a statistics class. Is their math accurate? Does it have any glaring flaws aside from the ones already noted?

I can't even read it because it's all blurred on my phone >.> Or too much to read it well anyway.

[gac3]

Might be a dumb question but will we know who made the QT with us? I'm assuming we will be told either in being notified one was made or in the title of the QT itself.

[Captain Cap]

Might be a dumb question but will we know who made the QT with us? I'm assuming we will be told either in being notified one was made or in the title of the QT itself.

I think so. I mean, otherwise most of us would have to create a new account with a different name.

[AvatarVecna]

~28 hours remaining in D1.

@Avatarvecna Now that I think about it: does the Mastermind's inclusion and selection override the "normal" faction determination (X/10)? If that's the case, my calculation are even more wrong.

No.

Normal order of operations:

1. I roll to see what roles make it into the game.
2. I look at the roles and number of players to determine how many wolves I want in this game.
3. I roll alignment for all roles to determine which roles are scum, until I have the number of scum roles I want.
4. I roll to assign roles to players.

If step 1 rolls a Mastermind in the mix, it's a little different:

1. I roll to see what roles make it into the game.
2. I look at the roles and number of players to determine how many wolves I want in the game.
3. I roll to assign the Mastermind role to a single player.
4. I PM that player and ask them to choose a number of players to be their scumbuddies.
5. I roll alignment for all roles to determine which roles are scum, until I have the number of scum roles I want.
6. I roll to assign scum roles to the mastermind's selected scumbuddies.
7. I roll to assign nonscum rolles to everyone else.

The mastermind selects players, not roles. The mastermind's selection does not override the odds that any given role will be scum or town.

Might be a dumb question but will we know who made the QT with us? I'm assuming we will be told either in being notified one was made or in the title of the QT itself.

For the sake of my own convenience in keeping track of it, the QTs created for networking will have the names of the two players that should be in there.

[Captain Cap]

I look at the roles and number of players to determine how many wolves I want in this game.

I roll alignment for all roles to determine which roles are scum, until I have the number of scum roles I want.

Well then, my calculations are completely useless it seems.

[AvatarVecna]

Well then, my calculations are completely useless it seems.

It probably doesn't help your calculations that the X/10 provided are vague abstractions and aren't the real odds I'm using in my roles, specifically so that the odds of any particular role being scum can't be math'd out and has to be sussed out in-game.

[The Outsider]

Alright, so the math itself can be disregarded (no offense intended). The intent behind the math, though, I can appreciate. Trying to figure things out is always a good plan, and I'm surprised that rogue_alchemist disagrees (or doesn't agree enough to switch their vote).

Side note: Interested to see where the vote on AV ends up. I don't think it'll come to much, but it's good to check.

[Captain Cap]

Aside from rogue_alchemist, there's at least another "passenger" on my wagon I think we should be wary of. Let's look at Xihirli: she voted me to "encourage activity". Strangely enough, now that I spoke her vote is still on me (at least publicly) and she kind of disappeared herself. Besides, even when she was present, her participation hasn't really brought much to the table, in fact I disagree with JeenLeen's comment:

Xihirli: eh, Xi is hard to read, but looks legit townie reason to keep discussion active.

Indeed, she seems to want discussions going:

Caoimhin has provoked the most discussion today and promises to continue activity, so I'm inclined to keep them around. CaptainCap I can get behind, let's encourage activity.

But what is her actual contribution?

And I think not nearly enough. Leeeet's see. Apogee1 seems closest.

A joke vote to start the day.

Your reasoning be making the mathemological sense.

A one-liner.

Excellent. Phase two of my evil plan begins now.

Spoiler: PHASE TWO

Show

Something unrelated to the game.

I rest my case.

[Caerulea]

While I do not disagree with anything you said, Captain Cap, this is day 1. There's not much concrete to go off of. Also, Xihirli is Xihirli, and this is totally normal.

[Captain Cap]

While I do not disagree with anything you said, Captain Cap, this is day 1. There's not much concrete to go off of.

Ok, but she should at least explain why her poke vote is still on me. She just disappeared without leaving any justification, and it's a bit suspicious that I'm risking to get lynched because of a poke of 1 day ago.

Also, Xihirli is Xihirli, and this is totally normal.

Perfect cover for a wolf.

[Xihirli]

I've been reading, no need to go all "she disappeared" when it hasn't even been a whole day, aight?

I don't have a good lead yet, but I'm glad to have helped Cao off the leading wagon. Meanwhile, I'm not super convinced by your spike. Sure you threw in your numbers to toss in with Cao's numbers, but I mean that was after I and those following had already shown we could be persuaded by that stuff. And it turns out to have been just a big post for a big post's sake, since so many of the numbers are just variables we can't calculate. Not necessarily wolfy, but I haven't seen a big reason to move my public vote.

[rogue_alchemist]

Fait point about my vote discouraging discussion. I didn't just leave my vote for whatever, I left it because the math wasn't accurate or helpful and seemed like a way they could try to claim later that so-and-so had to be scum or not based on their math, though few others could verify or understand it. That seems pretty wolfish to me. Now AV has debunked it and CaptainCap has admitted their mistake, but that's damage control a wolf would do. It feels weird to change my RNG vote just because. If it was getting closer to end of D1 I would change my vote to difuse the wagon, but everyone else seems to have done that and jumped on me. If I still have a wagon in 3-5 hours I'll claim. I have a verifiable role, even in the absence of a seer, though figuring out what roles are actually in game reliably seems difficult.

[Captain Cap]

I've been reading, no need to go all "she disappeared" when it hasn't even been a whole day, aight?

I was going to call you out on this one because ~36 hours passed between your last comment and mine, but then I realized you're probably referring to an in-game day. Ok, well played.

I don't have a good lead yet, but I'm glad to have helped Cao off the leading wagon. Meanwhile, I'm not super convinced by your spike. Sure you threw in your numbers to toss in with Cao's numbers, but I mean that was after I and those following had already shown we could be persuaded by that stuff. And it turns out to have been just a big post for a big post's sake, since so many of the numbers are just variables we can't calculate. Not necessarily wolfy, but I haven't seen a big reason to move my public vote.

It was a "big post" because I found the mathematical challenge fun, in fact, as I explained in my first comment (but a lot of people seem to have strangely missed it), I was already aware there were problems with my formulas and I posted the results for "anyone curious", thus anyone who has fun with math as I have, and "to prove some activity from my part", in the sense I wasn't lurking in the dark plotting against town, but I was literally spending time on something that made me miss the ongoing discussions.

[Xihirli]

A LIKELY STORY
And I say that's not necessarily wolfy. Just no one jumps out at me as moreso, so I haven't ostensibly moved my vote.

[Captain Cap]

Besides, if I was really confident in the predicting power of my calculations I would have given at least a numerical result or calculate an estimate. The math wasn't even the only thing I tackled in my comment, but you and rogue_alchemist appear oddly eager to find an excuse to keep your vote on me, and you came out with it only AFTER I poked you.

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A LIKELY STORY
And I say that's not necessarily wolfy. Just no one jumps out at me as moreso, so I haven't ostensibly moved my vote.

That's fair. I guess this works well as a response to the above part (I didn't see your comment as I was writing it).

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Wait a second, was that some kind of hidden message?!

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I have a verifiable role, even in the absence of a seer, though figuring out what roles are actually in game reliably seems difficult.

I have a deja vu, but: verifiable role or verifiable faction?

[Apogee1]

I'm getting flashbacks to last game with this RA wagon.

Valmark and cap get various degrees of villager points though

Xihirli

Let's try it

[Captain Cap]

So... is no one else going to comment on that A LIKELY STORY hidden, wrote in white in Xihirli's last comment? Is this just another case of "Xihirli being Xihirli"?

[Unavenger]

So... is no one else going to comment on that A LIKELY STORY hidden, wrote in white in Xihirli's last comment? Is this just another case of "Xihirli being Xihirli"?

Probably, yes.

[Xihirli]

Are you arguing that your story is not likely?

[Captain Cap]

Are you arguing that your story is not likely?

I'm arguing that I'm confused.

[JeenLeen]

So... is no one else going to comment on that A LIKELY STORY hidden, wrote in white in Xihirli's last comment? Is this just another case of "Xihirli being Xihirli"?

When Xihirli says she's a wolf, she often enough turns out to be a wolf. At least, in my limited experience.
But I'm not quite as sure how to read an implication like white-text.

Also, I agree that Xi's vote is a good enough townie response that it's a legitimate way for a wolf to hide as town. I'm still not convinced of anything enough that I want to use my vote as a vote today, but I'll note this as something to recall later in the game.

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AV's post reveals that a Mastermind is not necessarily in the game.
I don't think we can definitively learn if it is in the game or not unless a Spy gets a read on one or we kill one. But, if we do, I think it probably clears Caerulea. She commented in the recruitment post that she's potentially be rather inactive. That would scare me off recruiting her if I were a Mastermind. (This comment probably is not super-relevant. She could still be a wolf, but in case I'm dead by the time the Mastermind dies (if one exists), I wanted this thought to be public.)

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EDIT/addendum: I do agree with Captain Cap's assessment that Xi has been talking but not actually contributing much. Which is what she did last time she was wolf.

On the other hand, not sure how predictable she is...