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Thread: Left 4 Dead 3
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2020-10-16, 08:09 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
I glanced over your math, and I understand what you are trying to do to a large extent, however: your assumption of every role having equal probability is out because AV stated that certain roles wouldn't get used unless we have a lot of players. He also mentioned that his calculations have a formula to follow, meaning even if we knew for sure all the roles actually in the game, it wouldn't be even distribution. I also have a problem with assuming repeats are negligible. I think certain roles are more likely to repeat than others based on AV's comments.
All that being said, this is way more work than I would put into it and so I probably shouldn't be judging. I just don't think it'll ultimately be helpful this game. It would only be helpful if multiple versions of this game were to be played and we could refine the model as well as test it's validity.
Also most people such at statistics and don't realize a 99.9% chance still means it could be the opposite quite easily.
As everyone has now posted atleast once, I want to unvote and stop the train, but CaptainCap could still be a wolf who is trying to trick us with fancy math. Like I said I don't have time to double check his results.
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2020-10-16, 08:15 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
So... I don't like this plan of leaving your vote on me? By announcing it, people know that's what you're doing. I'm sure people are going to read closesly, but what does leaving the vote on me get you? At the end of the day, having your vote on me means you may have been the person who voted me.
As a Wolf, this means you can pass off blame for a vote against me to someone else. As Town, you're making yourself look Wolfish if I do end up dying (when I flip town).
I don't see how leaving your vote on me does anything but confuses town. If someone is looking to prove that they are making a QT, I'd suggest being the only vote on someone. That way when it comes up as 0 votes we're clear on what happened.
My opinion in general: don't leave a vote on someone you want to protect.
As for the claim... feels townish to me, but I'm worried about how this will go off. I have an idea on how you can use it, but not sure I want to put that plan in public. If you make a QT with me we can coordinate overnight.
Regarding Captain Cap, my gut instinct on him is Town? I feel like a Wolf would have put a vote on me out of self preservation and hope that some people on their wagon were making a QT
Going to throw my vote on PartyOfRogues for now since I don't think a vote on AvatarVecna is going to help anyone and I'd like to see more of them.
Vote Count
Xihirli (1): Valmark
Holy-hunter (1): Caerulea
AvatarVecna (1): PartyOfRouges
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Holy-hunter, gac3, JeenLeen
Captain Cap (4): rogue_alchemist, The Outsider, Xihirli, Apogee1
PartyofRogues (1): Unavenger, CaoimhinTheCape
Not Voting: Captain Cap
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2020-10-16, 08:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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2020-10-16, 08:50 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Fair point. I do think there's a chance someone will forget and not re-read closely near end-of-day, so it winds up helping protect. But it does cast suspicion on me if you die and flip Town, and that doesn't help the Town one bit.
So JeenLeen.
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By the way, while I think AV is not doing anything odd and voting her will do nothing and be an invalid vote, I am glad somebody is doing that just to check on things.
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2020-10-16, 08:51 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-10-16, 09:46 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
So I don't need to advise people not to claim to Jeen based on this claim right? Set up a QT if you want but I mean, we might want to wait for some kind of proof before we claim.
I also don't get that part about leaving their vote to protect the person being vote for. 1. That just doesn't make much sense to me. 2. It would do more good if we didn't know it was a fake vote.
I agree with Valmark about RA's comment looking suspicious. In fact I might even switch to them for now. I was going to be all "it's day one so maybe they just meant they didn't have a better reason to switch to anyone yet" but then I realized that I didn't have a better reason to vote than this weirdness so... RogueAlchemist
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2020-10-16, 10:36 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
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2020-10-16, 11:57 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2020-10-16, 01:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
So, is it a problem that I don't really understand Captain Cap's math at all? Because I haven't taken a math course since high school, and I don't think I've ever taken a statistics class. Is their math accurate? Does it have any glaring flaws aside from the ones already noted?
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2020-10-16, 01:48 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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2020-10-16, 02:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Might be a dumb question but will we know who made the QT with us? I'm assuming we will be told either in being notified one was made or in the title of the QT itself.
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2020-10-16, 02:35 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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2020-10-16, 02:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
~28 hours remaining in D1.
No.
Normal order of operations:- I roll to see what roles make it into the game.
- I look at the roles and number of players to determine how many wolves I want in this game.
- I roll alignment for all roles to determine which roles are scum, until I have the number of scum roles I want.
- I roll to assign roles to players.
If step 1 rolls a Mastermind in the mix, it's a little different:- I roll to see what roles make it into the game.
- I look at the roles and number of players to determine how many wolves I want in the game.
- I roll to assign the Mastermind role to a single player.
- I PM that player and ask them to choose a number of players to be their scumbuddies.
- I roll alignment for all roles to determine which roles are scum, until I have the number of scum roles I want.
- I roll to assign scum roles to the mastermind's selected scumbuddies.
- I roll to assign nonscum rolles to everyone else.
The mastermind selects players, not roles. The mastermind's selection does not override the odds that any given role will be scum or town.
For the sake of my own convenience in keeping track of it, the QTs created for networking will have the names of the two players that should be in there.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2020-10-16, 02:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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2020-10-16, 02:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2020-10-16, 05:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2019
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Alright, so the math itself can be disregarded (no offense intended). The intent behind the math, though, I can appreciate. Trying to figure things out is always a good plan, and I'm surprised that rogue_alchemist disagrees (or doesn't agree enough to switch their vote).
Side note: Interested to see where the vote on AV ends up. I don't think it'll come to much, but it's good to check.
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2020-10-17, 02:11 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Aside from rogue_alchemist, there's at least another "passenger" on my wagon I think we should be wary of. Let's look at Xihirli: she voted me to "encourage activity". Strangely enough, now that I spoke her vote is still on me (at least publicly) and she kind of disappeared herself. Besides, even when she was present, her participation hasn't really brought much to the table, in fact I disagree with JeenLeen's comment:
Indeed, she seems to want discussions going:
But what is her actual contribution?
A joke vote to start the day.
A one-liner.
Something unrelated to the game.
I rest my case.Last edited by Captain Cap; 2020-10-17 at 02:13 AM.
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2020-10-17, 07:26 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
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- six feet under
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
While I do not disagree with anything you said, Captain Cap, this is day 1. There's not much concrete to go off of. Also, Xihirli is Xihirli, and this is totally normal.
Non caerulea sum, Caerulea nomen meum est.
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she/her
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2020-10-17, 08:25 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Ok, but she should at least explain why her poke vote is still on me. She just disappeared without leaving any justification, and it's a bit suspicious that I'm risking to get lynched because of a poke of 1 day ago.
Perfect cover for a wolf.
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2020-10-17, 08:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
I've been reading, no need to go all "she disappeared" when it hasn't even been a whole day, aight?
I don't have a good lead yet, but I'm glad to have helped Cao off the leading wagon. Meanwhile, I'm not super convinced by your spike. Sure you threw in your numbers to toss in with Cao's numbers, but I mean that was after I and those following had already shown we could be persuaded by that stuff. And it turns out to have been just a big post for a big post's sake, since so many of the numbers are just variables we can't calculate. Not necessarily wolfy, but I haven't seen a big reason to move my public vote.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2020-10-17, 09:03 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Fait point about my vote discouraging discussion. I didn't just leave my vote for whatever, I left it because the math wasn't accurate or helpful and seemed like a way they could try to claim later that so-and-so had to be scum or not based on their math, though few others could verify or understand it. That seems pretty wolfish to me. Now AV has debunked it and CaptainCap has admitted their mistake, but that's damage control a wolf would do. It feels weird to change my RNG vote just because. If it was getting closer to end of D1 I would change my vote to difuse the wagon, but everyone else seems to have done that and jumped on me. If I still have a wagon in 3-5 hours I'll claim. I have a verifiable role, even in the absence of a seer, though figuring out what roles are actually in game reliably seems difficult.
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2020-10-17, 09:18 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
I was going to call you out on this one because ~36 hours passed between your last comment and mine, but then I realized you're probably referring to an in-game day. Ok, well played.
It was a "big post" because I found the mathematical challenge fun, in fact, as I explained in my first comment (but a lot of people seem to have strangely missed it), I was already aware there were problems with my formulas and I posted the results for "anyone curious", thus anyone who has fun with math as I have, and "to prove some activity from my part", in the sense I wasn't lurking in the dark plotting against town, but I was literally spending time on something that made me miss the ongoing discussions.
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2020-10-17, 09:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
A LIKELY STORY
And I say that's not necessarily wolfy. Just no one jumps out at me as moreso, so I haven't ostensibly moved my vote.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2020-10-17, 09:27 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Besides, if I was really confident in the predicting power of my calculations I would have given at least a numerical result or calculate an estimate. The math wasn't even the only thing I tackled in my comment, but you and rogue_alchemist appear oddly eager to find an excuse to keep your vote on me, and you came out with it only AFTER I poked you.
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That's fair. I guess this works well as a response to the above part (I didn't see your comment as I was writing it).
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Wait a second, was that some kind of hidden message?!
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I have a deja vu, but: verifiable role or verifiable faction?
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2020-10-17, 10:09 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
I'm getting flashbacks to last game with this RA wagon.
Valmark and cap get various degrees of villager points though
Xihirli
Let's try it
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2020-10-17, 12:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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Re: Left 4 Dead 3
So... is no one else going to comment on that A LIKELY STORY hidden, wrote in white in Xihirli's last comment? Is this just another case of "Xihirli being Xihirli"?
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2020-10-17, 12:35 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2018
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2020-10-17, 12:35 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
Are you arguing that your story is not likely?
Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
https://www.patreon.com/everskendra
I post short stories in the middle of every month, and if you want to follow my novels as they’re edited and written, you can join as a patron!
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2020-10-17, 01:06 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2018
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- Tuscany, Italy
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2020-10-17, 01:53 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Left 4 Dead 3
When Xihirli says she's a wolf, she often enough turns out to be a wolf. At least, in my limited experience.
But I'm not quite as sure how to read an implication like white-text.
Also, I agree that Xi's vote is a good enough townie response that it's a legitimate way for a wolf to hide as town. I'm still not convinced of anything enough that I want to use my vote as a vote today, but I'll note this as something to recall later in the game.
AV's post reveals that a Mastermind is not necessarily in the game.
I don't think we can definitively learn if it is in the game or not unless a Spy gets a read on one or we kill one. But, if we do, I think it probably clears Caerulea. She commented in the recruitment post that she's potentially be rather inactive. That would scare me off recruiting her if I were a Mastermind. (This comment probably is not super-relevant. She could still be a wolf, but in case I'm dead by the time the Mastermind dies (if one exists), I wanted this thought to be public.)
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EDIT/addendum: I do agree with Captain Cap's assessment that Xi has been talking but not actually contributing much. Which is what she did last time she was wolf.
On the other hand, not sure how predictable she is...