Crazier Idea Mafia

[Caerulea]

Vote Count:
Apogee1 (4.0): PartyOfRouges, Zelphas, Xihirli, Caerulea
AvatarVecna (3): Valmark, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape
JeenLeen (1): gac3
Valmark (1): plenty
rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
Caerulea (4.1): rogue_alchemist, Apogee1, Elenna, The Outsider
(.1 means that I reached 4 after Apogee1, so I get lynched given these votes).

So there's a wagon of length 4 on me just to poke me? Alright then. I am going to move my vote to Apogee1, because they just claimed Survivor.

Case 1, they really are Survivor:
- Lynching them is better than lynching a townie.
- We know they aren't in a chat, so we can analyse their wagon to guess at alignments and groupings.
- Survivor is a role that the town is completely apathetic about. It being alive or dead has almost no impact on the chance of the town winning, unless the survivor is using their power to help the town (and why would they?). The only impact that I can see is if mafia=town mafia wins, whereas with survivor the game goes on at least one more turn. That minor positive impact is countered by the fact that the survivor is incentivized to work against the town, because they want as many people that are not dead to die, regardless of alignment, because they want to end the game quickly.

Case 2, Apogee1 is a lying liar:
- It is very unlikely that they are town, given that they lied about their alignment and didn't say it was town. A townie probably would not lie to make them seem less useful to the town. They are probably hostile to the town, and need to be killed.


Aside from believing that we should lynch Apogeee1, I don't see what lynching me does. I have said almost nothing, and the wagon seems to be entirely on the basis of 'eh, why not'. I don't see what info the town gains.

[Captain Cap]

- We know they aren't in a chat, so we can analyse their wagon to guess at alignments and groupings.

I don't see how this supports your case: if Apogee1 is not affiliated with anyone, then the wagon would carry the least possible amount of information, given no main faction would have a problem voting him or care much about his fate.

Other than that, I agree that lynching Apogee1 would be the safest option: even if he's not lying, we wouldn't lose much. Would it be better to gamble and try to lynch someone else hoping to take out a bad guy (given that from what I understood, in this kind of game we should expect a greater number of non-town compared to town)? Honestly I don't know, nor I'm particularly satisfied with any current wagon.

That said, I would like to hear more from the people voting Caerulea, aside from Apogee1 and rogue_alchemist, who already gave a decent justification.

So I'll move my vote to Caerulea. Let's see what happens with a second three-vote wagon, I guess?

Caerulea

Elenna, The Outsider, could you expand a bit more on your reasons?

[The Outsider]

Caerulea was next on my list of possible votes because of their discard. While TP can be boring, it's also vital for any Town that wants to win. I think someone said as much already.

Also, Caerulea themselves pointed out my other reason: they've said almost nothing. Quiet is bad for the Town, and I am a staunch advocate against it.

[Caerulea]

Also, Caerulea themselves pointed out my other reason: they've said almost nothing. Quiet is bad for the Town, and I am a staunch advocate against it.

I haven't said anything because I didn't have anything to add, and I don't want to just type noise.

[Captain Cap]

Caerulea was next on my list of possible votes because of their discard. While TP can be boring, it's also vital for any Town that wants to win. I think someone said as much already.

Also, Caerulea themselves pointed out my other reason: they've said almost nothing. Quiet is bad for the Town, and I am a staunch advocate against it.

It makes sense.

Now that I've pondered a bit more on the situation, Caerulea, Apogee1 at least claimed a faction, do you have any claim that could better justify the discard of Protective?

[AvatarVecna]

Alright time for some last-minute effort. General thoughts:

1) I got three town cards, and people almost exclusively deciding to play non-town roles is what screwed up last Crazy Idea, so I'd imagine that town cards were extremely common and discarding them doesn't really say as much as some people seem to think it does. Case in point: there's 15 players, which means werewolf and alien factions should've been added to the deck, and yet no werewolf/alien cards were discarded. It's possible the deck is just bigger than 3 cards per player and thus there's cards that just weren't drawn, but my recollection from last time was that the deck was exactly the size needed for everybody to have 3 cards and there were none left out. People who discarded non-town almost certainly got two.

2) PartyOfRouges is still going with their Apogee1 randvote from early D1. IME they tend to be low-activity and leave their early votes on for a long time, so it's not inherently suspicious as much as just disappointing. But then I can't exactly chide people for low activity this time around...

3)

I believe, in a non-PM game, AV would want to be one of the factions to be able to network and have more fun (that is, I think she'd find being Town a little boring in this game.) Also, she hasn't died D1 for a while. Her discarding a Town card, while meaning nothing in itself, lends credence to this. So AvatarVecna.
This is creating a 2-vote wagon.

This reads like a list of weak arguments stapled together to make them seem like a strong argument, and despite being an early vote that has actual thought put behind it, that vote got abandoned when...I self-voted? What? Why? FoS on JeenLeen. I fear no OMGUS accusations!

4) CaoimhinTheCape laters agrees with this logic, but ends up OMGUS voting Xihirli in the same post instead. I'm not really sure what to make of that right now.

5)

Actually, change my vote to Apogee1. It's suspicious enough for D1, and my suspicions on AV are based on playstyle and metagaming, and her self-voting (in the particular case of this game) makes me inclined to believe her as non-wolf. (If/when she dies, I'll state my reasonings if anyone's curious/I remember to, but I'd rather be quiet about it for now.)
If Apogee flips Alien today, I recommend lynch Zephas D2.

Still wary of AV, but, well, it's probable some faction will try to take her out as a dangerous foe (either Town or an enemy faction), so her longevity is likely limited anyway and she'll flip sooner than later without being lynched.

"I'm voting Apogee1 based on not much. I think AV would be more talkative so I think AV is scum, but also I think AV self-voting is town-tell even though they do that as wolf too, but also I don't feel like I need to vote AV for lynch today because some faction will probably eliminate them for me."

This is a "throw everything at the wall and see what sticks" style of fishing.

6) The Outsider seems to be joking about "xihirli is hinting at being scumbuddies with Cao", but that's the exact kinda thing I could see Xihirli doing. FoS on Xihirli/Cao.

7) CaoimhinTheCape doubts my dedication. I've thrown bigger over less.

8) Survivor is a super-safe claim, so unhappy with seeing it. It's the kinda thing that makes me inherently suspicious, even though I'm generally fine trusting claimed until counterclaimed/seer-confirmed false.

[Caerulea]

It makes sense.

Now that I've pondered a bit more on the situation, Caerulea, Apogee1 at least claimed a faction, do you have any claim that could better justify the discard of Protective?

I am town. (That sentence tells you absolutely nothing however, as I would say if I were town, or a faction hostile to town). I discarded protective because given the nonexistent communication between townies, as a town player I have no way to determine who to protect, or to coordinate protection. And because being protective is boring.

For what it's worth, I also got three town cards.

[JeenLeen]

In defense of Caerulea: when she asked about who she could talk to via PM, she said something like "beyond myself". (I don't have time to look up the quote right now.) In my "you are Town" QT post, Unavenger said something akin to "you can talk to yourself". Maybe Unavenger said that to everyone in their solo QT, maybe not--but it makes me inclined to think Caerulea is Town, despite the question in itself looking a tad wolfish.

In other words, Caerulea implied her QT post from Unavenger is similar to mine, and since I'm Town, makes me think she might be, too.
I want to hold-off on posting what the "you are Town" text is, lest we compare QTs to snare a wolf later.

On Apogee: If Apogee1 is Survivor, nobody wants him dead. It's an extremely safe claim for a baddie to make, since the Town Investigative or Seer would rather scry someone else.
However, since nobody is counterclaiming (as Survivor or "I had the card but discarded it"), I'm willing to believe him for now. Also, I have an inkling someone else is Survivor, but I'd rather hear it from them.

So who to vote for? Elenna's musing on The Outsider and Xihirli sound reasonable. Xihirli died D1 last game, so The Outsider.

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Side Note: AV wrote her post while I was writing mine, and I gotta go play with the kids, so not responding now. Also, not sure when Day ends due to being confused about time zones, but I realize it might be too late for my vote to matter (beyond saving Apogee, perhaps--but I mean no wagon on who I vote for is likely), but I don't feel comfortable voting Cearulea due to the reasons posted.

[AvatarVecna]

I am town. (That sentence tells you absolutely nothing however, as I would say if I were town, or a faction hostile to town). I discarded protective because given the nonexistent communication between townies, as a town player I have no way to determine who to protect, or to coordinate protection.

In my L4D3 game, town had 4.5 baners, and the only reason the wolf kill succeeded N1 is because I blatantly messed up and declared dead somebody who had been baned. This game has at least one factional kill floating around, and probably two (depending on whether the people who discarded mafia were the only ones to draw mafia cards or not). WW is an information game. Investigative learns info directly, Roleblocker has a chance to help or hinder town, Killing has a chance to help or hinder town, Protective can only help town, and Innocent-Looking shares info with town when their power is used (by risking their own life). Anything that helps town extends how long the game lasts, and gives more time to gather information via analysis or abilities, making protective the next-best town-role after Investigative. If you discarded Protective, it'd better be because you took Investigative.

[Caerulea]

On Apogee: If Apogee1 is Survivor, nobody wants him dead. It's an extremely safe claim for a baddie to make, since the Town Investigative or Seer would rather scry someone else.
However, since nobody is counterclaiming (as Survivor or "I had the card but discarded it"), I'm willing to believe him for now. Also, I have an inkling someone else is Survivor, but I'd rather hear it from them.

See this, this makes no sense to me. The way I read what you said is: "this person who was going to be lynched made a very safe fake claim, so he's probably not lying because nobody else has claimed in the last 3 hours." Even if he is actually the survivor, why does that mean we shouldn't kill him? He is certainly not town-aligned, so isn't definitely not killing a townie better than taking a random very-low information day one vote?

[AvatarVecna]

Side Note: AV wrote her post while I was writing mine, and I gotta go play with the kids, so not responding now. Also, not sure when Day ends due to being confused about time zones, but I realize it might be too late for my vote to matter (beyond saving Apogee, perhaps--but I mean no wagon on who I vote for is likely), but I don't feel comfortable voting Cearulea due to the reasons posted.

Step 1: google "what time is it gmt"

Step 2: Message the DM to make sure they meant GMT as opposed to the weirder british time zone that they still call GMT sometimes even though it isn't GMT.

[Captain Cap]

In defense of Caerulea: when she asked about who she could talk to via PM, she said something like "beyond myself". (I don't have time to look up the quote right now.) In my "you are Town" QT post, Unavenger said something akin to "you can talk to yourself".

It was written even in the recruitment thread, so I wouldn't base a town leaning on this.

[Caerulea]

If you discarded Protective, it'd better be because you took Investigative.

I did. The other option was role-blocker, but that felt like a worse version of protective.

(Cue wolves killing me tonight if I survive the day)

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It was written even in the recruitment thread, so I wouldn't base a town leaning on this.

I don't see it in the recruitment thread.

[Captain Cap]

I am town. (That sentence tells you absolutely nothing however, as I would say if I were town, or a faction hostile to town). I discarded protective because given the nonexistent communication between townies, as a town player I have no way to determine who to protect, or to coordinate protection. And because being protective is boring.

For what it's worth, I also got three town cards.

Yeah, this claim isn't particularly substantial... maybe your reticence in claiming a role has good reasons, maybe not. I admit that I'm quite conflicted.

[Unavenger]

Step 1: google "what time is it gmt"

Step 2: Message the DM to make sure they meant GMT as opposed to the weirder british time zone that they still call GMT sometimes even though it isn't GMT.

18:00 GMT is in FOUR MINUTES.

We are not on BST right now.

[Captain Cap]

I don't see it in the recruitment thread.

It was Unavanger's answer to someone else: I quoted the passage in my first comment in game.

[Caerulea]

Goodbye everyone! It was nice knowing you! So long, and thanks for all the fish! Buy gold, BYE!

[Captain Cap]

I did. The other option was role-blocker, but that felt like a worse version of protective.

Removed my vote.

[Unavenger]

DAY 1 END

Please hold for the votes to be counted. Do NOT change your votes beyond this point.

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AvatarVecna voted AVATARVECNA
Caerulea voted APOGEE1
Valmark voted AVATARVECNA
The Outsider voted CAERULEA
PartyOfRogues voted APOGEE1
gac3 voted JEENLEEN
Xihirli voted APOGEE1
Elenna voted CAERULEA
Captain Cap REFUSED TO TAKE PART IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY
rogue_alchemist voted CAERULEA
Apogee1 voted CAERULEA
JeenLeen voted THE OUTSIDER
CaomhinTheCape voted AVATARVECNA
Zelphas voted APOGEE1
plenty voted VALMARK

AvatarVecna recieved 3 votes.
Apogee1 recieved 4 votes.
Caerulea recieved 4 votes. Additionally, she was the first to reach 4 votes.
JeenLeen recieve 1 vote.
The Outsider recieved 1 vote.
Valmark recieved 1 vote.

Caerulea died today. They were hanged. Caerulea's role was town watcher.

NIGHT 1 BEGINS

Day 2 will end at 18:00 on 9/11/2020.

Please put actions in faction QTs if you have one and personal QTs otherwise.

[Valmark]

Shouldn't it be NIGHT 1?

[Unavenger]

Shouldn't it be NIGHT 1?

Welcome to "So many frickin' typos" with your host, Unavenger. Ficks'd.

[Xihirli]

Wow, I missed a lot. Sorry, everyone.
But on the plus side, I've LOTS to tell you tomorrow morn!

[Elenna]

Wow, I missed a lot. Sorry, everyone.

Same Apparently staying up till 6am reading fanfiction and then sleeping till 2:30 was a bad idea, who knew...

[JeenLeen]

See this, this makes no sense to me. The way I read what you said is: "this person who was going to be lynched made a very safe fake claim, so he's probably not lying because nobody else has claimed in the last 3 hours." Even if he is actually the survivor, why does that mean we shouldn't kill him? He is certainly not town-aligned, so isn't definitely not killing a townie better than taking a random very-low information day one vote?

I realized that no counter-claim is weaker than I originally thought, since (if Apogee is lying and on a baddie faction), it could be he or one of his allies didn't choose Survivor but neither discarded it. Meaning it's a safe claim.

I was thinking a counterclaim might exonerate or add heat to Apogee, but (if he is lying) it's probably a safe lie with the help of his scumbuddies.
Sorry, Caerulea. Bad play on my part, and sorry I was offline when you claimed.

[AvatarVecna]

Apologizing to the dead? That's a paddlin'.

[JeenLeen]

Apologizing to the dead? That's a paddlin'.

Eh; that's fair.
But, if I were really a wolf, would I write something so wolfish?

More seriously, if I had been online, I likely would have switched my vote back to Apogee.
I really feel inclined to say who I think the Survivor actually is (if Apogee is lying), but I'd rather they soak some NKs, so best to wait.

On the plus side, we have no reason to think she (as Town) would lie about getting 3 Town cards. So her death does verify that some folk had no choice but to be Town. Not sure how helpful that info is, but it's something we didn't know beforehand (or, well, those who didn't get 3 Town cards didn't know.)

[gac3]

Wow, I missed a lot. Sorry, everyone.
But on the plus side, I've LOTS to tell you tomorrow morn!

Same... Usually I habitually refresh the forum but the past few days I forgot in favor of habitually refreshing the election results. I'll catch up and weigh in on what I think after start of day.

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The same was to missing a lot, not to having lots to say

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The same was to missing a lot, not to having lots to say

[JeenLeen]

TeSting (this is not spam; post has a purpose)

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It's the In Case I Die Report.

I voided AV.
From some stuff AV said, I have an inkling she might be the Survivor if Apogee is lying. But her later statements about counterclaiming cause me to doubt that initial thought... unless that's just her hinting around the bush, or implying it circumspectly to make folk think she might be.
Or she could be the serial killer.
Also hoped that, by saying "I have an idea who the Survivor is", wolves might think I'm hinting I'm the Survivor. I'm not, but seemed good reason to maybe get a Werewolf to kill an Alien/Mafia instead of a townie.

If AV is a wolf, I suspect she might choose to do the NK since she knows folk often target her with abilities, so she's more likely than others to get scried as a baddie or watched. So she might do the kill since she realizes the seer might catch her anyway. (Though it's also sound she might not because she knows someone (beyond the now-dead Caerulea) might be a watcher.)

So, um, if there's less kills than we think there should be, it could be a fortunate baner or it could be that I voided one of the NKers.

But, unless that pans out, I'm thinking of voiting Apogee to see if I should have kept my vote on him D1.

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Hmm.... I appear to have misjudged how closely to 1 PM my time the GMT time (or the post based thereon) would align. Well, my bad for not double-checking first.
Now just to question if I should change my action before Night ends... Nah.

[rogue_alchemist]

isn't it 1845 GMT? Seems like night should have ended 45 mins ago.

[JeenLeen]

And... well, I guess I might actually change my action. If AV is Town, then voiding does no good. If AV is a baddie, then at least one of her faction likely saw this and has been able to respond.
And maybe I'll just give up on these 'if I die' things. They feel fun and witty to do, but too much work and I know, as a narrator, I don't like the pressure of the cutoff mattering exactly when it is set up.

Hope somebody quotes this to see the white-text. Didn't actually change my action. Hoping to throw the wolves off if AV is a wolf.