Crazier Idea Mafia

[Unavenger]

I forgot about this, apologies.

NIGHT 1 ENDS

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You wake up to find that there's a dead alien in the centre of the town. This shocking revelation is only compounded by two things: one, the claw marks indicating a sign of death, and two, that this person is one of your number. Elenna is recognisable by her clothes, but she turns out to have been an alien, sent here to research the ways of humans to assist the invaders.

Elenna died tonight. She was clawed to death. Elenna's role was alien researcher.

DAY 2 STARTS

[AvatarVecna]

Really? Oh suuuuuure, the player who just happened to be calling you out for a ton of bad looks is actually the problematic one. Totally legit. Clearly, voiding me was a good choice, since it prevented the NK from going through. Oh wait, it didn't.

Didn't even draw a kill power or a non-town faction in the first place, I couldn't kill somebody even if I tried. Sure, there's theoretically a mafia as well as a wolf faction, but there wasn't a second kill...and certainly my power didn't interfere in anything. I'm inclined to think either we don't have a mafia, or we have a mafia that has been dealt an extremely poor hand this game (if you'll pardon the pun).

Very skeptical about JeenLeen now, not sure I like the EoN "if I die" note that immediately got fake-walked-back just in case - I've done things like that as wolf to look more town, but it's not often an actual townie does a last-minute thing like that.

AvatarVecna

[JeenLeen]

And... well, I guess I might actually change my action. If AV is Town, then voiding does no good. If AV is a baddie, then at least one of her faction likely saw this and has been able to respond.
And maybe I'll just give up on these 'if I die' things. They feel fun and witty to do, but too much work and I know, as a narrator, I don't like the pressure of the cutoff mattering exactly when it is set up.

Hope somebody quotes this to see the white-text. Didn't actually change my action. Hoping to throw the wolves off if AV is a wolf.

For what it's worth, I did void AV.
And with reading some things as "maybe she is a Survivor"... all that translates just as well to Serial Killer. And just one death last night. So if she Mafia (if any exist), Serial Killer, or just other baners/voided interfered with NKs?

So let's see, AvatarVecna.
Though, um, if any Townie decided not to be the Serial Killer and wants to vindicate AV, please feel free.

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Very skeptical about JeenLeen now, not sure I like the EoN "if I die" note that immediately got fake-walked-back just in case - I've done things like that as wolf to look more town, but it's not often an actual townie does a last-minute thing like that.

My biggest time doing that was as Town Snape in the Harry Potter. Though I think I did do it at least once as wolf, too. So, yeah, good point, but pointing out I've done it at least once as town.

[AvatarVecna]

My understanding was that one of the arguments for me being Surivivor was that I said I doubt the Survivor claim despite a lack of a counterclaim. That's a decent argument for you purporting that I'm Survivor, but unlike what you just said, it's not an equally strong argument for me being a Serial Killer. "AV doubts the Survivor claim without evidence, therefore they're the Serial Killer" isn't really logical.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Hmmm. Alright. Things we know:

Mafia may not exist.
If they do exist they were blocked/their victim was saved.
Werewolf faction is active in this game.
Alien faction is or was active in the game.
Aliens have info on whoever Elenna investigated last night.
If Aliens have a Vigilante they were blocked/victim protected.
If Aliens have a Mindslaver they did not pick someone with a kill.
IF SK is in the game, they were blocked/their victim was protected.

JeenLeen blocked Avatar Vecna.
Apogee claimed Survivor.

Really? Oh suuuuuure, the player who just happened to be calling you out for a ton of bad looks is actually the problematic one. Totally legit. Clearly, voiding me was a good choice, since it prevented the NK from going through. Oh wait, it didn't.

Alien Vigilante/Mindslaver and Mafia could have had kills tonight. If we assume you're one of those factions, JeenLeen's block could have prevented a kill.

I'm inclined to think either we don't have a mafia, or we have a mafia that has been dealt an extremely poor hand this game (if you'll pardon the pun).

I'll agree on this point. We see 3 Mafia cards were publicly discarded and I already claimed that I took the back half of a Mafia card. Mafia wasn't a popular pick last game and if there were more town cards this game we probably have no mafia or a small one.




AvatarVecna, I definitely can't doubt your dedication to voting yourself but I'm skeptical of how self voting today helps find anyone. I have my own suspicions but I'd rather see you voting someone else.

Wow, I missed a lot. Sorry, everyone.
But on the plus side, I've LOTS to tell you tomorrow morn!

I'm holding off my vote until I see what Xihirli has to say, but again I have my suspicions. Hopefully will have time this afternoon/evening for a reread and some more reads on people.

---

Vote Count:
AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, JeenLeen


Not Voting: Valmark, The Outsider, PartyOfRogues, gac3, Xihirli, Captain Cap, rogue_alchemist, Apogee1, CaoimhinTheCape, Zelphas, plenty

[Valmark]

So, uhm, AvatarVecna, is there an actual plan to lynching you? I feel like that's a legitimate question on D2.

Also Apogee1, the same question from D1- why not claim earlier if you are the one role nobody really cares of wanting dead?

[AvatarVecna]

Proving my words regarding JeenLeen to be truthfully meant in good faith. No true plan beyond that. Perhaps.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Spoiler: Analyzing Elenna

Show

Vague pondering - if someone discards a non-town card, that instinctively seems like it should mean they're more likely to be town. But based on the previous game, the vast majority of people will pick non-town factions. So people probably won't be townies unless they drew three town cards, which implies they would have discarded town. So maybe people who discarded non-town are more likely to be non-town? Thoughts?

Based on the above I guess I'll randomly pick Captain Cap among the three who discarded non-town. It's definitely not much to go on, but better than a pure random vote I guess?

Elenna gives a bit of a reason for voting Captain Cap, JeenLeen, and Valmark. Probably means that none of them are aliens with Elenna?

Yes, but there were three mafia discards and no werewolf discards, so I figure the werewolf faction is probably larger and therefore a bigger threat. I mean, it's possible that a bunch of people got werewolf cards and took the role off those cards instead of the faction, but it seems more likely that most of the people who got werewolf cards chose to be weeewolves.

Does this seem shady to anyone else? Like one evil faction indirectly shifting attention to another? I could be misreading it, but it feels shady to me.

I'm thinking Outsider is unlikely Alien? Don't see any reason for an ally to add suspicion to Elenna at this point?

Also, weeewolves.

Hmm I kinda see JeenLeen's argument that voting a new player isn't very useful when you know that new players very rarely get voted off D1, so it could maybe be good distancing?
...
So, eh, I see what Jeen is going for but IMO it's an even weaker argument than Jeen thinks it is.

Anyways, definitely not voting for Apogee now, I don't want to have one huge wagon just based on a weak argument. Better to have multiple competing wagons D1 for future analysis.

The speed of the wagon springing up is definitely weird, and it makes me a little more inclined to trust Apogee, although much less than I would be in a game with only one evil faction. Still, it makes sense that someone in a non-town faction might want Apogee to be lynched as an easy target. The Apogee votes are as follows:

• Early D1, PartyOfRouges votes Apogee based on RNG
• Later, Apogee votes Zelphas for discarding investigative.
• Zelphas responds with an OMGUS vote
• Jeen accuses Apogee and Zelphas of being aliens together, and votes Apogee
• Xihirli jumps on the Apogee wagon to "see where it goes"
• Outsider jumps on the Apogee wagon because "We don't really have anything better to go on"

So it's really only Xi and Outsider who could be voting because they needed an easy excuse to jump on a wagon. I'm not seeing any particular difference between them tone-wise, but tbh I'm not very good at judging people's tone.
I'd be down to switch to either Xi or Outsider if other people are interested.

So I'll move my vote to Caerulea. Let's see what happens with a second three-vote wagon, I guess.

So, this post was in defense of Apogee, and publicly asking if anyone wants to vote Xihirli or Outsider. At this point in the day, I don't think it's distancing.

Vote for Caerulea but now we know they aren't on a team.

TL;DR Based on Elenna's posts and others posting about her I think it's unlikely that Outsider or Xihirli are Aliens. Elenna threw shade on Valmark, Captain Cap, and JeenLeen early on but that has a better possibility of distancing. It's possible she was looking to protect Apogee with a large post defending him.

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Vote Count:
AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, JeenLeen, Valmark


Not Voting: The Outsider, PartyOfRogues, gac3, Xihirli, Captain Cap, rogue_alchemist, Apogee1, CaoimhinTheCape, Zelphas, plenty

[Apogee1]

So, uhm, AvatarVecna, is there an actual plan to lynching you? I feel like that's a legitimate question on D2.

Also Apogee1, the same question from D1- why not claim earlier if you are the one role nobody really cares of wanting dead?

I was debating this and just claiming early

Especially considering how like, snowblaze last time ended up eating a strongman as the survivor n1.

But like

I kinda stumbled to the conclusion that claiming early probably? increases my chance of eating a kill in the end

Because I only ever die by vote or strongman, and as we saw regardless of claim timing I wasn't getting voted. If I'm claimed survivor versus lowish poe non-mafia(wolf) slot I see more reasons why I might get strongmanned? Ideal imo would be like a d2/d3 claim once there is enough of a clear "lead" that for any faction killing me it hurts there chances

Plus there was always the chance someone would have tried to fakeclaim and then I could have gone "haha, no, I am the survivor" which may or may not change my win percentage but would have been kinda fun

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I don't really know what's going on with AV

But the points regarding Jeen aren't bad I suppose

Probably slightly concerning their the only wagon so far

[Valmark]

I was debating this and just claiming early

Especially considering how like, snowblaze last time ended up eating a strongman as the survivor n1.

But like

I kinda stumbled to the conclusion that claiming early probably? increases my chance of eating a kill in the end

Because I only ever die by vote or strongman, and as we saw regardless of claim timing I wasn't getting voted. If I'm claimed survivor versus lowish poe non-mafia(wolf) slot I see more reasons why I might get strongmanned? Ideal imo would be like a d2/d3 claim once there is enough of a clear "lead" that for any faction killing me it hurts there chances

Plus there was always the chance someone would have tried to fakeclaim and then I could have gone "haha, no, I am the survivor" which may or may not change my win percentage but would have been kinda fun

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I don't really know what's going on with AV

But the points regarding Jeen aren't bad I suppose

Probably slightly concerning their the only wagon so far

...I don't get this. You know you aren't good to anybody dead and thus you think claiming makes you more likely to get targeted by a strongman?

Also you were most definitely getting voted since people moved away afterwards- at least I seem to recall they did.

Given that it's possible that you're an alien (Elenna defending you, could also mean Zelphas is depending on how you read it) I think you've claimed knowing somebody in your group drew the card and thus you know you can't be counterclaimed.

As Caerulea said last Day phase- if it's wrong, we lose nobody. If it's true you likely aren't Town, unless you can prove it somehow?

Apogee1 meanwhile.

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Or gambled on the role people wouldn't really wan to kill.

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...faction, not role.

[The Outsider]

I'm gonna go ahead and join in on Apogee1. I honestly regret switching my vote off them last time, as the surv claim in retrospect seems like a desperate, last-minute gambit.

I also have a lingering suspicion of JeenLeen, which I might go into later after I eat some food and my brain comes back online. Side note: Elenna was in fact an evil trying to direct attention to the other evils. I love being right.

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Other side note: Looking forward to Xihirli's potential boatload of info.

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Gonna temporarily retract that FoS, since a line that I thought came from JeenLeen actually came from Caoiminh. Instead, I'm going to compile a list of suspicious actions thus far:

-JeenLeen: In addition to the points raised by AV, JeenLeen outright admitted that they would have been innocent-looking mafia given the chance. Not only that, but they lampshaded how weak their excuse was for giving up Innocent-Looking. This is admittedly weak since most people probably would do the same, but I'm noting it nonetheless.

-AV: I'm with Caoiminh here, as I don't see how voting yourself helps anybody to attain info or catch evils. Also the comment about how "voiding me clearly didn't stop a night kill" despite the fact that there could be oh so many night kills in this game.

-Caoiminh: It wasn't direct, but after I posited my theory about Elenna being an evil misdirecting attention, you basically responded with "You're right, but you could also be wrong and she does make a good point." You also said that it was less likely she was an alien, which is what she turned out to be. You could be a fellow alien covering for her, or I could be reading way too deep into things.

-Xihirli: Existed. In all seriousness, it's very hard to tell how much of what you've said is a joke and how much isn't.

Captain Cap: The only thing remotely sus they've done so far was cancel their vote on Caerulea despite said cancellation not changing the outcome. Could be an evil trying to look inno, could be a conflicted Townie.

gac3/plenty/Zelphas/PoR/rogue_alchemist: Y'all have been very quiet, which is automatically sus in my book. Granted, some of you are new and I'm sure everyone has a life to manage. But still, more speech=good.

Valmark: Has done absolutely nothing to get on my sus list thus far. Knowing my instincts, this probably means they're a wolf.

[JeenLeen]

Apogee and/or AvatarVecna, given the heat today, want to claim a Power? Anything from last night make that provable?

I can see "no" as a legitimate answer for AV; if she's Town, she might want to keep her role secret for good reasons. But I can't see much reason for that with Apogee.

---

I think the conclusion that Xi and The Outsider are not aliens is a sound conclusion.
I want to keep my vote on AV (at least for now) to see if she says anything more with some votes on her, and having competing wagons gives more intel for analysis later on, but I respect those voting for Apogee. If he flips alien, we're probably close to eliminating the alien faction. (No idea how many there are, but in a game this small I reckon there's 3-4 max... though unsure how the Card mechanics influence variability.) We mislynched D1, but no bad NKs N1, so we're in a good position.
If there is no serial killer and mafia (or we can keep them at bay for now*), maybe we can make this a town vs. werewolf game in a game meant to be a several-way fight. That should be a good winning position.

*I kinda suspect there is at least one of those two, but its NK got negated via bane or void. Unless evidence lends strongly to another person being a baddie, I may do the same void N2 as I did N1.

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Actually, on the question of "how many Aliens could there be?"

We have 4 people saying they had a Mafia card: three Narrator-confirmed discards, and Cao stating he used the power-side of a card. Did anyone else have a Mafia card?
For balance purposes, it makes sense to me if the deck had the same number of cards for each faction. So maybe 4 werewolf, 4 mafia, and 4 alien. Hmm... but that would mean likely not many folk getting 3 Town cards, so maybe something like 3/3/4 or Cao is lying and it's 3/3/3.
I could see Cao lying if he's an Alien or Werewolf trying to throw us off the scent.

Hmm... I guess, from a gut sense of balance, it's likely there aren't MORE than 4 cards for each bad faction. Probably less, or less for some factions, unless some people got something like Town-Alien-Werewolf cards, or a lot less people got 3 Town cards than are claiming such. So I suspect 3-4 aliens total (including Elenna). I can see that being popular, as it's mechanically different from most games. Feeling 2-4 werewolves. 0-1 mafia.

If anyone is Town and about to die, I strongly encourage you to state your cards to help us gain intel on enemy numbers.
If anyone is not-Town and about to die, and feeling spiteful towards the other bad factions, you could also share.

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As an a general reply to suspicion on me: I definitely get it. Some of my actions and words have looked shadey; some of it's I hadn't throught stuff through completely, part of it that I think I'm not as careful with my words when I'm Town since I'm not caring so much about covering my tracks. Since I don't have a defense beyond "well, I'm being honest" and I've already (mostly if not completely) stated my reasoning for why I've acted as I have, don't see much point in defending myself.

I'll probably be off the forum a fair bit tomorrow due to a big work project, and I have a state holiday Wednesday... so might be a bit less online the rest of the Day than I usually am.

[Xihirli]

Oh, we started up again!

Okay, my big announcement:

There is no survivor.
I drew that card, Apogee1 is lying, and since I didn't choose Survivor we are not playing with that role in the game.

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Though on a closer read, it looks like you guys already figured that out. So that was less of a helpful bit of knowledge than I thought it would be.

[JeenLeen]

Oh, we started up again!

Okay, my big announcement:

There is no survivor.
I drew that card, Apogee1 is lying, and since I didn't choose Survivor we are not playing with that role in the game.

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Though on a closer read, it looks like you guys already figured that out. So that was less of a helpful bit of knowledge than I thought it would be.

Why didn't you reveal that Day 1, when doing so likely would have saved Caerulea?
Though, even if Xihirli is lying, I can still see voting off Apogee to potentially learn something about what Xihirli isn't. E.g., if Apogee is werewolf, then Xi probably isn't.

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Wow, I missed a lot. Sorry, everyone.
But on the plus side, I've LOTS to tell you tomorrow morn!

Oh. You were implying you were offline since Apogee claimed Survivor, and (for some reason) waiting until Day to reveal it.
But why wait to reveal it until Day breaks?

Stating it at night just makes it more likely a rival faction would take out Apogee. Yeah, it's info that could help the baddies, but only in a way that helps the Town. That is, assuming Apogee is a baddie, which seems likely if you're telling the truth.

[Xihirli]

So that whatever faction Apogee was in didn't kill me out of spite, mostly.

But yeah, his late-day save was missed by me.

[plenty]

gac3/plenty/Zelphas/PoR/rogue_alchemist: Y'all have been very quiet, which is automatically sus in my book. Granted, some of you are new and I'm sure everyone has a life to manage. But still, more speech=good.

I can see how that would look suspicious. I'm naturally a quiet person and I haven't really had much to add.

[Valmark]

Proving my words regarding JeenLeen to be truthfully meant in good faith. No true plan beyond that. Perhaps.

Missed this. I see- although there is to say that Jeen does that basically at least once I game regardless of the faction, or at least so it looks from the games we were both in.

No objection on the rest.

Oh, we started up again!

Okay, my big announcement:

There is no survivor.
I drew that card, Apogee1 is lying, and since I didn't choose Survivor we are not playing with that role in the game.

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Though on a closer read, it looks like you guys already figured that out. So that was less of a helpful bit of knowledge than I thought it would be.

Well, I didn't need another reason, but I'll take it.

[Captain Cap]

Oh, we started up again!

Okay, my big announcement:

There is no survivor.
I drew that card, Apogee1 is lying, and since I didn't choose Survivor we are not playing with that role in the game.

Ok, let's go with Apogee1.

[Xihirli]

I can see how that would look suspicious. I'm naturally a quiet person and I haven't really had much to add.

There's a reason we call wolves the Dark Spirits of the Silent.

Spoiler: Oh wait that's this

Show

[Zelphas]

gac3/plenty/Zelphas/PoR/rogue_alchemist: Y'all have been very quiet, which is automatically sus in my book. Granted, some of you are new and I'm sure everyone has a life to manage. But still, more speech=good.

That makes sense; this game seems to be all about information, and so anyone who's miserly with their info feels suspicious immediately.

I voted Apogee1 on Day 1 because I knew I needed to vote someone and I had no information to go on. Apogee1 voted me, and I thought that voting him back would be an easy, harmless vote that would qualify as participating in the round without throwing suspicion any particular way, as I learned what was going on. I misunderstood the sheer depth of the metagame, however, so that was a good learning experience for me.

For this round... I'm going to vote AvatarVecna. The suspicions on Apogee1 make a lot of sense, but they aren't enough for me to double down on him, especially since my first-day vote had essentially no weight behind it. Plus, AvatarVecna seems somewhat unhappy with her role; if this is a ploy, I'll take it as another learning experience, I suppose.

[Captain Cap]

The suspicions on Apogee1 make a lot of sense, but they aren't enough for me to double down on him, especially since my first-day vote had essentially no weight behind it.

So you have doubts about Xihirli's accusations, correct?

[JeenLeen]

That makes sense; this game seems to be all about information, and so anyone who's miserly with their info feels suspicious immediately.

I voted Apogee1 on Day 1 because I knew I needed to vote someone and I had no information to go on. Apogee1 voted me, and I thought that voting him back would be an easy, harmless vote that would qualify as participating in the round without throwing suspicion any particular way, as I learned what was going on. I misunderstood the sheer depth of the metagame, however, so that was a good learning experience for me.

For this round... I'm going to vote AvatarVecna. The suspicions on Apogee1 make a lot of sense, but they aren't enough for me to double down on him, especially since my first-day vote had essentially no weight behind it. Plus, AvatarVecna seems somewhat unhappy with her role; if this is a ploy, I'll take it as another learning experience, I suppose.

That's all reasonable. And just let me reassure you that the metagame can feel a bit overwhelming, but it's something you can learn after a couple games. At least, that's how I felt as a new player in my first games.

But to explain a couple metagame points, and sorta state you still look Alien-y from this. Or like someone trying to protect Apogee while looking like it's not really trying to protect him.

• it is reasonable and good to have competing wagons in order to gain more intel. So a vote on AV is a good thing in a sense.
• But this does look like you making an attempt at protecting Apogee, which goes with the idea of you both being wolves

I don't want to risk last-minute vote switches somehow saving Apogee, so Apogee1. (I know it's not last-minute, but i likely won't be online tomorrow much.)

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An idea to throw out there: if Apogee flips Alien, we have good reason to suspect Zephas as Alien (maybe last Alien) as well. But would it be better to leave Zephas alive (e.g., not lynch) and hope one of the other baddie factions take him out, while we focus on the finding the ones who actually have a Night Kill?
A lone Alien seems pretty harmless, at least until late game.

But I've never played a game with aliens before, so I might be missing something.

[Apogee1]

Xihirli

This is easy

Xihirli is maf/wolf or the SK

I'm a survivor vig and shot her last night, unfortunately she didn't die (leading me to think SK is possible but having a wolf doc is too I guess)

From all of your POVs claiming to discard survivor should be seen as a wolfclaim

Because who takes town over survivor? Definitely not Xihirli

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To clarify, Xihirli is claiming (falsely) to have received and discarded Survivor. This means Xihirli is NOT town like pretty obviously and I'm surprised no one else tumbled to this. But she's pretty much confirmed wolf/maf/alien from your perspectives

[CaoimhinTheCape]

-Caoiminh: It wasn't direct, but after I posited my theory about Elenna being an evil misdirecting attention, you basically responded with "You're right, but you could also be wrong and she does make a good point." You also said that it was less likely she was an alien, which is what she turned out to be. You could be a fellow alien covering for her, or I could be reading way too deep into things.

I mean, I still stand by what I said: We have to keep an eye on the different factions and make sure one doesn't get too strong. What I was trying to say that after Elenna's post saying Werewolves could be a big problem I figured she was Mafia deflecting blame or (the less likely scenario) she was Alien deflecting blame.

Either way, I see how you got there. Not much for me to say other than I'm not.

Okay, my big announcement:

There is no survivor.

That's what I thought you were going to say when you posted about big news. Good to have that confirmed.

I'm inclined to believe this, since Xi is putting her neck on the line for this and if she's wrong she's immediately the target.

@Apogee any response?

I can see how that would look suspicious. I'm naturally a quiet person and I haven't really had much to add.

Do you have any thoughts on what's been revealed today so far? Where do you stand on Apogee's Survivor claim vs Xihirli?







Happy to join the wagon on Apogee1. I worry about having just the one wagon (plus the couple votes on AV) today, but I don't see any evidence against anyone else. Interested in Apogee's response and where his vote lands, plus we have a few people who haven't posted yet today so there may be more information coming in.

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Vote Count:
AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, Zelphas
Apogee1 (6): Valmark, The Outsider, Xihirli, Captain Cap, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape


Not Voting: PartyOfRogues, gac3, rogue_alchemist, Apogee1, plenty

[Apogee1]

...I don't get this. You know you aren't good to anybody dead and thus you think claiming makes you more likely to get targeted by a strongman?

Also you were most definitely getting voted since people moved away afterwards- at least I seem to recall they did.

Given that it's possible that you're an alien (Elenna defending you, could also mean Zelphas is depending on how you read it) I think you've claimed knowing somebody in your group drew the card and thus you know you can't be counterclaimed.

As Caerulea said last Day phase- if it's wrong, we lose nobody. If it's true you likely aren't Town, unless you can prove it somehow?

Apogee1 meanwhile.

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Or gambled on the role people wouldn't really wan to kill.

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...faction, not role.

Please see my later vig claim

If I claimed survivor people were going to want me to claim my role. Being a vig means the bad factions kinda are really incentized to kill me at some point.

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So that whatever faction Apogee was in didn't kill me out of spite, mostly.

But yeah, his late-day save was missed by me.

Nah I shot you

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm a survivor vig and shot her last night, unfortunately she didn't die (leading me to think SK is possible but having a wolf doc is too I guess)

From all of your POVs claiming to discard survivor should be seen as a wolfclaim

Because who takes town over survivor? Definitely not Xihirli

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To clarify, Xihirli is claiming (falsely) to have received and discarded Survivor. This means Xihirli is NOT town like pretty obviously and I'm surprised no one else tumbled to this. But she's pretty much confirmed wolf/maf/alien from your perspectives

If this is true, why didn't you claim your shot in your first post?

Your point about Xihirli being more likely to take Survivor than Town makes sense, but it could both be true that you and Xihirli are both different evil factions. Xi doesn't get a free pass for this.

[Apogee1]

I mean, I still stand by what I said: We have to keep an eye on the different factions and make sure one doesn't get too strong. What I was trying to say that after Elenna's post saying Werewolves could be a big problem I figured she was Mafia deflecting blame or (the less likely scenario) she was Alien deflecting blame.

Either way, I see how you got there. Not much for me to say other than I'm not.



That's what I thought you were going to say when you posted about big news. Good to have that confirmed.

I'm inclined to believe this, since Xi is putting her neck on the line for this and if she's wrong she's immediately the target.

@Apogee any response?

Take a look up one

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If this is true, why didn't you claim your shot in your first post?

Your point about Xihirli being more likely to take Survivor than Town makes sense, but it could both be true that you and Xihirli are both different evil factions. Xi doesn't get a free pass for this.

Why would I?

Again, I'm going to get strongmanned at some point now that I've claimed vig

As much as you know, I don't want town to vote me off

I'd rather reduce my chance of getting NKed as much as possible

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I'm gonna go ahead and join in on Apogee1. I honestly regret switching my vote off them last time, as the surv claim in retrospect seems like a desperate, last-minute gambit.

Btw this is a maf/alien/wolf

Rest of the post too

Free assistance to the folks not in their faction

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That's all reasonable. And just let me reassure you that the metagame can feel a bit overwhelming, but it's something you can learn after a couple games. At least, that's how I felt as a new player in my first games.

But to explain a couple metagame points, and sorta state you still look Alien-y from this. Or like someone trying to protect Apogee while looking like it's not really trying to protect him.

• it is reasonable and good to have competing wagons in order to gain more intel. So a vote on AV is a good thing in a sense.
• But this does look like you making an attempt at protecting Apogee, which goes with the idea of you both being wolves

I don't want to risk last-minute vote switches somehow saving Apogee, so Apogee1. (I know it's not last-minute, but i likely won't be online tomorrow much.)

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An idea to throw out there: if Apogee flips Alien, we have good reason to suspect Zephas as Alien (maybe last Alien) as well. But would it be better to leave Zephas alive (e.g., not lynch) and hope one of the other baddie factions take him out, while we focus on the finding the ones who actually have a Night Kill?
A lone Alien seems pretty harmless, at least until late game.

But I've never played a game with aliens before, so I might be missing something.

Btw focusing your solving around one of the factions in multiball is super indicative you are one of the other wolf factions in that game

If I live today I'm vigging Jeen

[Captain Cap]

To clarify, Xihirli is claiming (falsely) to have received and discarded Survivor. This means Xihirli is NOT town like pretty obviously and I'm surprised no one else tumbled to this. But she's pretty much confirmed wolf/maf/alien from your perspectives

Well, if she's lying we'll kill her tomorrow. Is not that town is going to lose much if we lynch you, Apogee1, if you're truly a Survivor; on the other hand we get useful intel either way.

[Apogee1]

...I don't get this. You know you aren't good to anybody dead and thus you think claiming makes you more likely to get targeted by a strongman?

Also you were most definitely getting voted since people moved away afterwards- at least I seem to recall they did.

Given that it's possible that you're an alien (Elenna defending you, could also mean Zelphas is depending on how you read it) I think you've claimed knowing somebody in your group drew the card and thus you know you can't be counterclaimed.

As Caerulea said last Day phase- if it's wrong, we lose nobody. If it's true you likely aren't Town, unless you can prove it somehow?

Apogee1 meanwhile.

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Or gambled on the role people wouldn't really wan to kill.

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...faction, not role.

Wanted to talk about this a little more

1) Yes. See thing regarding vig

More or less is this -> I claim survivor -> people (rightfully) will want me to claim an ability so I can be accounted for -> I claim vig -> since at least (to the thread at large) my shots would go onto people we thing were wolves (/maf/aliens) those factions would have reasons to kill me -> I get strongmanned

Holding off of the claim can only help me

Sure it's annoying for whichever ones of you are actually town, but since me winning depends on exactly me being alive, I have to be really careful with like percentages here.

2) My point was that, as you saw, claiming survivor later in the day still kept me from getting voted off. So why shouldn't I have waited there as survivor considering it didn't change my odds of winning? Again, I'm happy to work with town (to an extent) and now shoot people who you think I should (since I've claimed vig) but still my priority is and remains my own survivor.

3) Yeah I could be an alien theoretically

But I'm not

And after Xihirli and Jeen flip wolves of various flavors that should be kinda mostly clear

4) My vig shot might indicate it is from a survivor? Actually yeah it should right! Just checked the recruitment thread and it will bet!!!

Too bad Xihirli got docced or I got RB'ed or whatever

I'm definitely going to get accused of this being convient

Sigh

I don't suppose anyone tracked me?

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Well, if she's lying we'll kill her tomorrow. Is not that town is going to lose much if we lynch you, Apogee1, if you're truly a Survivor; on the other hand we get useful intel either way.

Yeah you actually lose quite a bit

Don't you get more intel flipping confirmed wolf Xihirli

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So as I just realized

As a vig I can clear myself as survivor btw

I'll accept a pool of

"Apogee isn't this just another convient way for you to live another day"

Well yes

But like I genuinely just remembered this going through valmark's post

And since I can IC (IS?) myself now this is great

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that was supposed to be "I'll accept a pool of players we think are wolves to shoot in"

[Captain Cap]

Yeah you actually lose quite a bit

But less than losing another town, that's for sure, and by lynching you there's no risk of making such mistake.

Don't you get more intel flipping confirmed wolf Xihirli

Not if she flips town.