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Thread: Crazier Idea Mafia
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2020-11-14, 03:32 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Okay, sure. Being persuaded by good arguments is a wolf-lean now and I was trying to get my buddy lynched in a massive distancing play. You caught me.
Or! Consider: You said that the scum!RA only makes sense if we're on the same scum team, and me and RA would be the only people who know we aren't.
Now, I see your question coming: are me and RA on the same scum team?
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2020-11-14, 03:35 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
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2020-11-14, 03:39 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Yeah, I thought of it as I was posting, even. But then, hey. If I die, I die.
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2020-11-14, 04:10 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Spoiler: The Outsider ISOMeaningless vote and a useful question, but also the kinda easy question scum could ask to look more townie.
Everybody figures Mafia is small or nonexistent, so aliens and WW probably have good ideas of how big a scum faction should be. Elenna saying "there's no WW discards, we should worry about WW being big" isn't as suspicious as this post implies, it's just also true of aliens and that's kinda sus that she didn't mention them. We later find out Elenna is alien, so that checks out.
This post could be WW seeing Elenna fingering WWs but not aliens and thinking she must be an alien throwing shade on the WW faction, and so he throws shade right back. It could also be a townie noticing the oddness. Difficult to say.
Idk what to think of Xihirli's jokes. Hinting at a Xihirli/Cao team is the kinda thing I could see Xihirli doing. Far-fetched theory: Xihirli/Cao/TO are all wolves.
NAI.
Reasonable, but easy for scum to do. NAI.
I appreciate the readlist, especially with how rare they've been this game.
I'd like to hear TO's thoughts on my Zelphas theory - in particular, I'd like to hear more in detail what TO thought at the time moved Zelphas up a step in trustworthiness, cuz I'm really not seeing it.
Given how obvious Mafia's problems are, and given that there was a dead alien at this point, it seems obvious to me even at this point that WW faction was in the best position. I think it's really weird The Outsider seems oblivious to that. Feels like a WW trying to downplay how dangerous their faction is.
NAI, beyond I guess being unhelpful commentary on the situation, and that being slightly sus.
It's decent analysis, but I wish there was more of it going in a bunch of directions so we could dig into everything. This almost feels like a wolf putting together a bunch of small things to make them seem like a bigger thing than they really are, and I'm already kinda having doubts about Captain Cap's scumminess anyway.
FWIW, the Cao post they were responding to makes me wonder if maybe there's a Cao/Xihirli mafia, and they're deliberately choosing not to kill people to fly under the radar. Again, that theory's way out there, I'm just brainstorming in these things for the most part.
NAI. Could be alien playing dumb, could be wolf/town that didn't realize how alien powers work.
NAI.
NAI.
Not really sure what to make of all this. GTH I'd say that this is a whole lot of posts but not much content, and I suspect TO is scum of one flavor or another.
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Spoiler: Valmark ISONAI, just general discussion and a meta-vote.
A solid argument about the relative usefulness of the Innocent role.
NAI.
Townie points here, pointing out that victory is achieved by hunting down members of each faction rather than focusing one to death. It would be in scum's interest to muddy the waters.
Posts like this make me feel more confident in one of my theories. Town lean.
NAI.
Refusing to let it go just because the lynch is over, this is building on the previous townlean.
Lovin' it.
NAI.
Okay so Apogee flipping SK makes Zelphas look not-aligned with Apogee, so I can forgive Valmark for not voting Zelphas today (even though technically Apogee didn't flip town or survivor).
I like the feel I'm getting from these posts so far.
NAI, just rules clarifications and some very basic guesses.
NAI.
This is the other side of the argument with plenty, and as I said before, I like what I see.
NAI. Slight town lean for pushing the issue, but most people pushed it so eh.
I like this wait-and-see approach, although I hope RA doesn't disappear on us for too long and keep Valmark from voting.
Easily my strongest town lean.
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Spoiler: Xihirli ISOPossible joke, but maybe not.
A decent point but not built to anything. Still, it's early at this point...we don't need big analysis yet.
Possible joke, but maybe not.
Possible joke, but maybe not.
Possible joke, but maybe not.
We finally get a real reason, at least, even if it's one I disagree with. I'm of the opinion that vigilante is about as anti-town as a town role can get. Admittedly this particular game can get weird on that front, but I think Cao was vig in L4D3 so I can see them ditching it here without that being sus.
NAI.
A solid point that town can be a bit more reckless with kills in a game like this. Slight townlean since scum wouldn't necessarily wanna spread that info around.
NAI.
NAI.
NAI. RA got townpoints for claiming seer and fingering Apogee as serial killer, but Xihirli doesn't get points for doing something similar, and the small differences are why. RA claimed seer, Xihirli didn't claim at all - just claimed she had the option to take Survivor and didn't. But also, I said that scum would want SK in play longer, and so RA outing themselves to catch the SK is a townie move way more than a scum move. But Xihirli didn't know Apogee was SK, she just knew Apogee was lying about being Survivor. If Xihirli is scum, it looks like Apogee is lying scum, and she can get town to off one of her rivals from another faction while getting townie points for providing the key evidence (well, key at the time). I could definitely see scum!Xihirli pulling this move just as easily as town!Xihirli pulling this move. GTH, I'd say slight scumlean here because Xihirli could've said it yesteday but didn't...and maybe that's a "didnt see the claim in time" thing, but it could also be a "wanted to talk things over with scumbuddies" thing.
Maybe, maybe not.
NAI.
*takes notes*
NAI.
Jokes.
I agree with this, I don't see Xihirli picking Survivor over town, and that's part of why I felt weird about TO going along with it earlier.
Just more jokes. Now that the lynch is basically locked in, Xihirli stops doing arguments or searching elsewhere for more stuff to talk about and just starts playing more casually. Not a good look.
A decent response, even if I'm not sure I believe it.
NAI.
Feels like just muddying the waters.
NAI. Lotta people pointed this out.
I'm not really seeing what other people are, where this somehow looks more scummy than towny. The only explanations amount to "town!RA made a mistake" or "scum!RA made a MONUMENTAL MISTAKE without any scumbuddies warning them ", and I think the former is far more likely.
I've already pointed out how funny I think this post is, contextually.
Jokes.
NAI.
Never sure how to read Xihirli. Scum is my guess, but it's only a guess. Probably scum with Cao.
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2020-11-14, 05:58 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Still not totally here like I hoped for this game. I knew being voided was an option, but I guess I got over excited thinking of the other possibilities along with the analysis and wagon that had started.
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2020-11-14, 06:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Moving my vote to Zelphas for the time being.
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2020-11-14, 06:21 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I'm gonna sabotage myself a bit here and say that if I were scum I would absolutely remind town that they can be less careful with their kills. Show me the blood! See if the schnozberries taste like schnozberries!
But I'd add onto that that the same thing I said about votes can be said of the Vigilante. This is the game where "mostly team-killing" isn't the vig's nightly routine. And thus I'll stand by my "you didn't take vigilante in a game where firing off a shotgun in the dark will probably help town" assessment as valid.
Anyway, you're right that I didn't claim and that's not about to change. You have no reason to believe me if I say anything other than Survivor (or scum) and for that you have more reasons not to believe me.
Thank you for backing me up on the fact that I'd never choose Survivor, AV. That means a lot. Hugs!
- - - Updated - - -
Also I didn't play Left 4 Dead 3. So I guess I defer to you on that.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2020-11-14, 06:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I'm not sure what else I expected to be honest xD
I read it slightly as a 'I got heat on me, thus I'll agree with having gotten overexcited' but that could just be bias- I wouldn't mind lynching either CC or RA but if I have to choose I'd rather lynch CC who replied so strongly at that sentence- because it looks like he replied badly under pressure and that's not usually Townie (I saw some pretty bad Town reactions too, but less then the wolves reactions).
Now, about Zelphas. Borrowing AV's ISO which has all the posts they keep giving me the feeling that they are Alien- my problem with this is that on Day 2 I fully expected Apogee1 to turn up alien (and thus Zelph would be allied) so now I'm unsure on wether to suspect Zelphas or not.
Does anybody have an updated list of the current wagons? I think (since we still got a day) I'd rather keep the wagons going side by side and possibly switch vote near end of the day depending on what has happened.
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2020-11-14, 06:55 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
If we're moving around votes for now, I don't mind throwing some pressure on the person who can roleblock and hasn't shown up today -
PartyOfRogues.
Even though we've moved all our votes around, I feel like a claim would do Captain Cap some good here so if you have anything to say in the next 18 hours I'd recommend it.
Gonna post again in just a little bit but I gotta step away for a few.
Vote Count:
Captain Cap (2): The Outsider, rogue_alchemist
rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
Zelphas (2): Xihirli, AvatarVecna
PartyOfRogues (1): CaoimhinTheCape
Not voting: PartyOfRogues, Zelphas, Valmark, plentyLast edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2020-11-15 at 09:34 AM.
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2020-11-14, 06:57 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Zelphas (3): AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Valmark
Captain Cap (2): The Outsider, rogue_alchemist
Rogue_alchemist (1): Captain Cap
PartyOfRogues (1): CaoimhinTheCape
If I counted correctly... It's a perfectly split amount of votes, uh.
Voting Zelphas in the hope of attracting a substantial reply to AV's ISO, but I'll be around tomorrow to change it if I like the replies.
I'd also like to hear Captain Cap's thoughts on ra's explanation.
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...ninja'd. Keeping my vote on Zelphas for pressure.Last edited by Valmark; 2020-11-14 at 07:00 PM.
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2020-11-14, 07:03 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Originally Posted by AvatarVecna
Originally Posted by AvatarVecna
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2020-11-14, 07:04 PM (ISO 8601)
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2020-11-14, 07:12 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
FoS on Valmark for wanting a close vote, making the vote 3-2-1-1, being made aware that his vote could be moved to make it 2-2-2-1, and keeping his vote on Zelphas anyway.
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2020-11-14, 07:27 PM (ISO 8601)
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2020-11-14, 07:27 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Didn't post as soon as I had planned, but is there any reason people can think of for the Alien kill on gac? It seems like a weird pick for any non-town group to pick the guy who didn't talk at all the previous day.
Do we think that Aliens have an invest to targeted gac and learned he was Wolf? Did they just want to avoid getting blocked? Or are they confident enough in their standing with the town that they didn't want to rock the boat?
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2020-11-14, 07:34 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
All right, I thought that this would keep for a bit while I took care of RL stuff. That seems to have been a massive error in judgment.
To sum up what I understand from this day so far:
--The Outsider voted Captain Cap based on vague comments and a vote on someone who turned out to be Town (I think in Day 2?).
--Xihirli voted AvatarVecna on the off chance that AV was a killer (based seemingly on knowledge from prior games).
--Most people were waiting on rogue_alchemist to come on and give an Investigative result, except for plenty who voted Valmark because of the Town-discard reasoning from Day 1.
--AvatarVecna voted for herself, as has been the standard initial vote for her in the past three days.
--rogue_alchemist stated that he got no result when he investigated Captain Cap, and so voted him based on that.
--CaomhintheCape posted within 20 minutes, agreeing with rogue_alchemist's vote in order to put more pressure on Captain Cap.
--Xihirli questioned rogue_alchemist's "No Result" explanation, eventually switching her vote to him.
--Captain Cap put forward a case of the plausibility of rogue_alchemist being blocked/voided, and based on his "over-eagerness" voted for him.
--AvatarVecna noted some concern about the quietness of the thread.
--Caomhin the Cape echoed much of Captain Cap's reasoning and switched their vote to rogue_alchemist.
--AvatarVecna points out that either Captain Cap is scum and rogue_alchemist is Town, or rogue_alchemist is scum and we know nothing about Captain Cap. She switches her vote to Captain Cap based on this.
--AvatarVecna releases several more ISOs, including mine.
--Twelve minutes later, Xihirli switches her vote to me, even though she states that AvatarVecna convinced her to switch from rogue_alchemist to Captain Cap.
--AvatarVecna makes a comment implying that Xihirli might be scum; Xihirli replies with (faux?) indignation. AvatarVecna clarifies away any scum implication.
--AvatarVecna switches her vote to me "for now".
--Caomhin the Cape switches their vote to PartyOfRogues to put pressure on them to speak.
--Valmark votes me to pressure me to respond to AvatarVecna's ISO.
--The Outsider states that they're willing to vote me if Captain Cap can convince him to vote otherwise.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Reading through AvatarVecna's ISO, two things stuck out as to why she's leaning Alien on me. Both of them are reasonable. The first is that I came in late on both of the first two Days, usually only after being called out for being quiet. There's... not much I can do about that, since that basically just happened again. I should have commented earlier. Too late for that.
The second is that I seem to be commenting without paying much attention to what is going on. The above overly-long play-by-play is my attempt to both rectify that behavior on this Day in myself and to point out how much information I'm gleaning from the current circumstances. I prefer to have all the information as much as possible before I act, and in this game I thought that would work best by waiting for others to post and getting the information they are giving out, but I'm probably not gleaning nearly as much as I should in each of these days.
From what I have gathered (aside from the suspicion on me), the other main conflict seems to be between rogue_alchemist claiming that he got no result from investigating Captain Cap, and voting him based on the explanation for that being that he was most likely protected by scum. Captain Cap argued back that rogue_alchemist even getting that result suggests that rogue_alchemist is scum, and voting him based on that.
Because of rogue_alchemist's claim of "No Result", AvatarVecna's explanation for what that could mean for roles, and The Outsider's initial comments on why he voted Captain Cap in the first place, I'm putting my vote onCaptain Cap. I will be happy to switch my vote should new arguments or information come to light, but this is what seems to make the most sense to me given what I know at the moment.
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2020-11-14, 07:44 PM (ISO 8601)
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2020-11-14, 07:48 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
My three theories for why Aliens picked their kill:
- Elenna (or another alien) investigated gac and they knew he was a Wolf.
- They knew no Doctor would protect gac so the kill would go through.
- The talkative people in town trust the Aliens so they didn't care to shoot a better target.
That's basically what I meant. I was just confused at why they chose to attack Gac.
- - - Updated - - -
That's sorta the point. Instead of Aliens going after Jeen the roleblocker they thought the biggest threat to them was gac?
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2020-11-14, 08:07 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Mmm... I don't think I like this?
Seems to me that you are specifically picking the existing argument in order to boost your opposite wagon- maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I don't exactly feel comfortable moving my vote away.
What I think is sure from your words is that you are voting on the other argument not involving you- which isn't bad, but I get the feeling what you aren't saying explicitely is "Let me get on this wagon made with seemingly sound reasoning to protect myself" while making it pass like you're taking a stance against CC.
In fact, I feel like you are just going along with what other people said without actually agreeing with it.
Oh alright, I get it now.
Imo they could have picked gac3 also because it reveals little to anybody- it could very well be that they decided to steer clear of any person that could relate to them.
In fact, I don't think they killed gac3 after investigating them- only a Town Investigative would have known they were a wolf without knowing they were powerless. If I was an alien and knew gac3 was a werewolf backup I would only kill them after I got some other wolf.
Although the opposite is true too- nip the Universal Backup before they have a chance to do anything. But personally I'd worry about the "pressing" threats.
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2020-11-14, 08:08 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I want to clarify my view on the RA vs CC: it's not that one or the other is scum. It's either both are scum, or RA waa blocked and we have no way to know for sure about either of them.
As far as gac goes I think it's one of two things:
1) gac3 is usually an active and skilled player. Going quiet could mean plotting as part of an enemy faction, and he's a good target to get rid of even if he's town instead of wolf.
2) Angel-dodging plain and simple. Aliens don't get shots as consistently as wolves/mafia so they have to make them count. Gac is a skilled player so a good one to eliminate, but he's been quiet so he's unlikely to be baned by others. Aliens were essentially betting that gac would return and be a thorn in their side if they let him live, and that a kill elsewhere is more likely to get blocked.
Final note: that post from Zelphas is a whole lotta IIoA.
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2020-11-14, 08:20 PM (ISO 8601)
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2020-11-14, 08:26 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Information Instead of Analysis. Wolf tactic to look more useful than you are by compiling/summarizing publicly available information without commenting on it, sharing your thoughts, or guessing at other people's thoughts. It looks helpful but isn't, which is exactly what scum wants to do.
Vote counts are the most common form of this, and the onoy reason I don't ride Cao about it is because they do a vote count with basically every post in basically every game, and it usually comes woth a good bit of real thought too. A bare vote-count is a red flag.
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2020-11-14, 08:31 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I would rather not vote at all, since I don't feel like I have the information to make a complete decision. I'm missing most of the metagame, and I might simply not be able to play these games very well--it's been a long time since I've played a mafia game even IRL, and I've never played one play-by-post. Given what I can understand of the debate, I found myself leaning CC.
I feel as though I'm shooting in the dark with the information I have, but if I don't shoot I'm all-but-guaranteeing that I'll be shot (or hanged) instead. So I voted CC because that's what made the most sense out of the options currently presented.
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2020-11-14, 08:34 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
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2020-11-14, 08:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Readlist from towniest to scummiest:
Valmark
Captain Cap
rogue_alchemist
plenty
The Outsider
CaoimhinTheCape
PartyOfRouges
XihirliZelphas
AvatarVecnaLast edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-11-14 at 08:54 PM.
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2020-11-14, 08:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
I understand the confusion- first time it can be like that (or at least, first time in a while).
What I'm asking though it's why what you heard makes you lean CC. I'll be more specific:
- you mentioned ra's claim as a factor for voting Captain Cap. Why does "no result" make you think more that CC is non-Town instead of, for example, ra getting voided?
- Why does AV's explanation make you lean against CC? She proved how ra's claim really didn't mean much then voted CC because of his reaction to ra and because of the general play.
...yeah this is all actually. You agreed with Outsider's opinion of CC and that's a perfectly normal response I think.
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2020-11-14, 08:51 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Well now I'm just insulted.
Not telling you which way would make me feel less insulted.Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2020-11-14, 08:55 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
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2020-11-14, 09:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Thank you very much, you beautiful aspect of the Whispered Rot.
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2020-11-14, 09:01 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Crazier Idea Mafia
Thank you for clarifying. Both of those factors are tied into AV's explanation. From my reading of her analysis, it seemed that RA could be either scum-seer who scryed CC and found him as scum-innocent or Town-seer who was voided last night, and she seemed to be leaning towards the second option. CC, on the other hand, could either be scum-innocent who was scryed by RA (as either scum-seer or Town-seer), other scum who was scryed by a voided RA, or Town that was scryed by a voided RA. At the end, two out of the three options place CC as possible scum. The Outsider's reasoning was enough to tip my thoughts to vote CC in the end.