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Thread: The Thing

  1. - Top - End - #211
    Titan in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Spoiler: Statistic Stuff
    Show
    I don't see anybody converting Apogee1 N2, for the amount of hot water they're in. I don't see anybody converting Apogee1/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider N3 for similar hot water reasons. I don't see Apogee1/Elenna/Grek getting converted N1 and converting another in that trio N2, with how much potential heat there would've been on the three of them yesterday.
    Here's another thorough table of conversion combos I consider viable:


    10/44 13/44 21/44 14/44 14/44 13/44 26/44 21/44
    N1 Conversion N2 Conversion N3 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
    Apogee1 Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
    Elenna Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Elenna Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Elenna Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
    Grek Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Grek Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Grek Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna Book Wombat 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna Valmark 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek Book Wombat 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek Valmark 1 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1


    Spoiler: First Thoughts...
    Show
    N1 Conversions
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider

    N2 Conversions
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    N3 Conversions
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    JeenLeen
    Valmark

    Using just those lists, we get:
    Apogee1: 1/3
    AvatarVecna: 1/3
    Book Wombat: 2/3
    Elenna: 2/3
    Grek: 2/3
    JeenLeen: 1/3
    The Outsider: 2/3
    Valmark: 2/3

    Using both lists of approximate rankings, we get these two orders of vague suspicion:

    The Outsider
    Book Wombat/Valmark
    Elenna/Grek
    AvatarVecna/JeenLeen
    Apogee1

    ...and...

    Book Wombat/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider/Valmark
    Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen


    First Thought Conclusion: Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen are bad choices to check today. It's not out of the question that AV/JL got converted N3, or that Apogee1 got converted N1, but there are other people who maybe got converted on multiple nights, and are just more common in the various combos.

    Spoiler: Second Thoughts...
    Show
    N1 Conversions
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider

    N2 Conversions
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    N3 Conversions
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    JeenLeen
    Valmark

    N1 and N3 lists are exact opposite, which is about as I expected - anybody could've been converted N3, but I don't think any of the people in deep suspicion of D1 conversion would've been converted N3 - it's just asking to get caught today. Elenna/Grek/The Outsider are the N1s I'd consider voting today. From those three, as I said yesterday, I think The Outsider is the most likely conversion choice for N1, so it'd be either voting The Outsider/Elenna or The Outsider/Grek.

    If we're going to check the N3 list instead, this is much easier: checking AvatarVecna/JeenLeen again isn't a great idea since they could only have been converted N3, and there's basically nothing to go on to check and be sure (especially since JeenLeen isn't back yet). As such, Book Wombat/Valmark would be the pair to check here.


    Combos I'd be willing to check today:

    Elenna/The Outsider
    Grek/The Outsider
    Book Wombat/Valmark

    I'm gonna get some food, then start doing ISOs on these four five people. For some reason I thought two people had duplicates in that list. I'm an idiot lol.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I also hope that people take my defense of Apogee1 more seriously today than they did yesterday, taking into account the fact that I made the exact same argument yesterday, it got me checked instead of Apogee, and I still came up clean.
    I'm a bit confused by the lists... Initially I thought they were objective (at least the statistic) but they clearly aren't or untested people would have higher chances... I think. But then you speak of them as if you're looking at facts and not your own thoughts and that just confuses me.
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  2. - Top - End - #212
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    WhiteWizardGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Changing my vote to The Outsider & Valmark, simply to make it less likely that we end up wasting a test on Apogee1, who is relatively unlikely to be a Thing out of the available candidates.

  3. - Top - End - #213
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I'm a bit confused by the lists... Initially I thought they were objective (at least the statistic) but they clearly aren't or untested people would have higher chances... I think. But then you speak of them as if you're looking at facts and not your own thoughts and that just confuses me.
    Apogee was maybe the N1 conversion. That's a possibility I can 100% acknowledge. But who looks at everything that happened D2 and would then choose to convert Apogee N2? Same goes for N3, Apogee is an awful choice because they're definitely going to be on the chopping block - it's frankly a wonder they didn't get tested N2.

    Similarly, let's assume that Apogee was the N1 conversion, and had to pick the N2 conversion. D2 was focused entirely around testing the untested. Apogee is currently untested. Does he pick a second untested as the N2 conversion? If he does that, and town continues only testing untested people, there's a 50% chance Things lose the whole thing on D3. This goes for if Elenna or Grek was the N1 conversion as well - none of those three would've converted one of the others N2. And I'm inclined to think that scumteam would be nervous about converting any of the three of them N3 either - even knowing that town is thinking about these things, it's still a risk converting the untested.


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  4. - Top - End - #214
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I again (for the third consecutive day) am feeling AV as not a thing.

    So I feel goodish? on TO and Grek as containing one.

    Well it does for sure unless Elenna is a thing.

    Maybe I should see if I think that's the case.

  5. - Top - End - #215
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Upon rereading, I can see the argument against Apogee1. I'll switch my votes to Grek and Valmark. As was noted, I unwittingly advocated for voting the already-tested earlier while keeping my votes on the untested. This was a mistake. Someone who was retested has most likely been converted. I've already given reasons why Valmark might have been the N2, and I'm sticking with it. Meanwhile, Grek has not only been putting out good analysis, their activity has risen recently. We were supposed to look for behavioral changes, so I'm going to go with that one for the moment.

    As far as my actions go, I did this already. As you might have noticed, I'm having a hard time with this game. My actions are inconsistent, weakly reasoned, and generally seem shady. That being said, the last time said actions got me voted I was clean. I'm clean now as well, and I don't think I'll be converted for at LEAST another night (though now that I've said something, I might get proven wrong). The reason is, I work much better for Things as a scapegoat and a waste of votes than I do as a member of their team. All they have to do is wait for me to speak, and I'll probably provide a way to split votes off from the real Things. It might be counterintuitive, but think about it this way: why convert someone who has already been proven to constantly attract suspicion while innocent?
    So in short, don't vote for me. I've helped the Things waste enough of the Town's time as-is.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  6. - Top - End - #216
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    You know what, belay that. That'd be my list if we weren't at LYLO, but Grek's right, we are. If we're looking to maximize our odds of catching at least one Thing with our initial two tests (which we have to, to avoid losing immediately), then we need to test two from Book Wombat, The Outsider, and Valmark.

    @Book Wombat

    @The Outsider

    @Valmark

    I want to hear you three's thoughts on all players currently. Y'all are being fairly quiet and while I've already got my opinions, I'd like to hear more from you to feel a bit more secure in my voting.
    Alright, I'm awake now. Let's start with the obvious- JeenLeen posted twice since last time I examined them, announcing their time offline after Night 2. As such, at the time of their first post they could have been converted (they weren't).
    In their second post they look... Neutral. Kinda. They voted for two Town members but that doesn't say much and talked about how they found unlikely the Things converted some tested people.
    Then they got tested and turned up Town, so we have a confirmed Town member going inactive into N3/most of D4.

    I have strong doubts that they got converted instead of any notably active player- I would be wary of JL N4 though.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: Little enough posts to quote them
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I agree with that vote. Apogee1 and AvatarVecna seem like good choices, especially since AV outright predicted they would be converted last night. Also, in answer to your question, Valmark, everybody had some sort of action that made them look Town-like in my eyes. I voted you because I didn't see a point in splitting the wagon when I didn't have anything to go on.
    Initially this could have been two Things pooling their votes but we know Jeen wasn't a thing. Maybe Outside just jumped on an easy wagon?

    One thing we disagree on is the fact of voting a wagon that is already going strong- I was going to be voted anyway (if I recall correctly) so that vote was effectively "wasted". It's an easy thing to do for a... Thing and actually not something I consider Town would/should do. But it might be just a disagreement like I previously said.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Honestly, my pick for a conversion last night would have been Valmark. Town seems to be acknowledging the possibility of retesting people while implicitly shying away from it, and it feels like the kind of tricky move that's just safe enough for a Thing to go for. This game has prompted unprecedented levels of WIFOM as well, and it might catch people by surprise to stop earlier in the "This way or that way" cycle. It's not enough for me to vote right now, but it's a possibility.

    I also have to unfortunately acknowledge that said argument would also work for BookWombat, as well as JeenLeen and myself to a lesser extent. Of those four options, however, Valmark and Jeen have been the most helpful so far, and Valmark was the more recent test of the two.
    They hadn't yet switched votes here, getting convinced about Jeen afterwards- it could be just a Townie considering the possibilities when their top picks flip Thing (at least one of them) but could also be a Thing looking for a reason to change (unlikely but it's there).
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hmm. AV needs to be tested today, I'm sure of that. But... she makes a good point regarding retesting and who would most likely be converted. Switching my vote pair to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen.
    Look above.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Full disclosure, a lot of the high-level analysis goes over my head at first glance. AV is incredibly good at putting out high-level analysis, but she's also very good at being tricky. Additionally, she seemed like somebody that a wolf-me would want on their team, for the reason stated above. So in part I wanted to be sure I could trust her analysis unreservedly, and in part because she seemed like a potential candidate for conversion. Now that I know the analysis isn't part of a Thing-trick, I'm going to try and go over it a few more times and understand as much as possible.

    As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting for Apogee1 and Valmark.

    I also have a thought for why I'm not a Thing, but I'll save it for if I accumulate more votes.
    Nothing to say, everything checks out and is coherent with previous day.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Upon rereading, I can see the argument against Apogee1. I'll switch my votes to Grek and Valmark. As was noted, I unwittingly advocated for voting the already-tested earlier while keeping my votes on the untested. This was a mistake. Someone who was retested has most likely been converted. I've already given reasons why Valmark might have been the N2, and I'm sticking with it. Meanwhile, Grek has not only been putting out good analysis, their activity has risen recently. We were supposed to look for behavioral changes, so I'm going to go with that one for the moment.

    As far as my actions go, I did this already. As you might have noticed, I'm having a hard time with this game. My actions are inconsistent, weakly reasoned, and generally seem shady. That being said, the last time said actions got me voted I was clean. I'm clean now as well, and I don't think I'll be converted for at LEAST another night (though now that I've said something, I might get proven wrong). The reason is, I work much better for Things as a scapegoat and a waste of votes than I do as a member of their team. All they have to do is wait for me to speak, and I'll probably provide a way to split votes off from the real Things. It might be counterintuitive, but think about it this way: why convert someone who has already been proven to constantly attract suspicion while innocent?
    So in short, don't vote for me. I've helped the Things waste enough of the Town's time as-is.
    You advocated for testing the re-tested and voted both untested and re-tested both toDay and last Day. That... Confuses me.

    Also agreed on why you wouldn't be a Thing.


    Actually seeing it like this I'm not so sure you wouldn't be a Thing- there's certainly reason for it, albeit shaky. I'd probably vote for you it Apogee1 flips Thing but from the looks of it you're getting tested while Apogee1 isn't, so nothing to do here for me (since it's pointless to vote you atm).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Thank god Grek's posts are easy to spot while scrolling. Also these are notably less posts then I thought, again. Grek looks much more partecipative then she is.

    Spoiler: Grek
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    I don't know why Cao would do that. I'm just saying, it looks like he did. Maybe he thought that since you warned against doing it in thread, everyone would assume he wouldn't dare? Like I've pointed out before, you don't beat WIFOM by trying to always be one level up from the other guy, you beat it by looking for behavioral differences between the Town/Scum cases that are difficult to use as a counter-signal. I would further like to note that P(AV was converted on N1) has no bearing on P(AV was converted N2|AV wasn't converted N1) - even if you weren't converted when I suspect you were, that still leaves you with the same one in seven baseline rate of having been converted N2 as everyone else. Saying that you were probably converted on Day X doesn't mean that people can't point to stuff you did on different days. If you're pretty sure someone's cult, the when of their conversion is mostly academic when it comes to deciding if you vote for them or not. ???

    These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town. We're currently at two Thing conversions from a Thing victory and will get to test four out of the eight survivors during that time, minimum. BUT, since there's two Things today (25% of the population), we have 43.75% chance of finding at least one Thing today and a 78% of finding at least one Thing using all four votes. Additional votes from finding a Thing bring us up to probable Town victory, even factoring in the fact that the Town is probably going to make choices that are better than random. Speaking of random voting, though:

    Name N1 N2
    AvatarVecna 16.67% 28.57%
    The Outsider 16.67% 28.57%
    JeenLeen 16.67% 28.57%
    Elenna 16.67% 28.57%
    Valmark 0% 14.29%
    Grek 16.67% 28.57%
    Book Wombat 0% 14.29%
    Apogee1 16.67% 28.57%
    The above assumes that Caerula and Caomhin were the original Things and that the Things chose randomly when converting people. If you suspect very strongly that a given person was not converted on N1 (say, based on an assumption that the Things aren't going to convert randomly because obviously they're not going to do that), that information can up to halve the likelihood of that person being a Thing right now; conversely if you feel certain that the Things wouldn't have converted someone LAST night, but might have converted them on N2, that can reduce their likelihood of being a Thing by around 60% - a little better than half.

    My prior reasoning with regards to AvatarVecna stands, but I'd like to highlight an additional aspect to it which I declined to bring up prior to the Things submitting their conversion vote: In the hypothetical case where AvatarVecna somehow wasn't a Thing before now, credibly making it look as if I was going to push for an AV vote today means that AV probably wasn't converted N2 - obviously the Things aren't going to want to convert somebody who has attention on them. This changes the math a bit on the table above (AV is down to only a naive 16.67% alongside Book Wombat and Valmark; everyone else is up to ~30%), but doesn't really change my list:

    1. AvatarVecna, as despite the prophylaxis of suspicion, I think he was converted N1.
    2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
    3. The Outsider, because clearly we can't tell if they're being scummy or not.
    4. JeenLeen, because I can imagine the Things trying to exploit already tested bias.
    5. Elenna, because she's been very on point about ferreting out Things so far.
    6. Grek, because while I know that I'm not a Thing, it WOULD be nice to have the Town know that too.
    7. Book Wombat, by virtue of the odds. Nearly tied with Valmark below on that basis.
    8. Valmark, by virtue of the odds, and making some good points about Apogee1.
    So, first off we have her skepticism about AV supposedly not being a Thing because she wouldn't have let Cao put her in the middle of the list- without giving a reason for that skepticism.

    Ignoring the confusion on AV's odds (which everybody could have had. I did) she talked about the probability of everybody and about how AV isn't actually likely to be a Thing compared to the others, then voted her nonetheless (but aknowledged that).
    My only doubt is if I'm misunderstanding her argument at the end, so hopefully Grek will clarify that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Maybe it's just a 'me' thing, but given the format and the fact that a negative test doesn't remove you from the game, I feel like the correct response to suspicion as a Townie is a shrug. I mean, yes, the Town voting to test you means one less test getting applied to possible Things. But we get 2+ tests per day and even a negative test provides quite a bit of value to the Town in the form of showing us that we can trust all of your arguments (up until the next conversion) to be non-WIFOM, Town-motivated truth-seeking. In a game where half the struggle is trying to figure out who is lying to cover for whom, having people who we know to have been telling the truth is one heck of a second place prize.

    The numbers I posted are not based on these assumptions, only on the knowledge that we have two remaining Things out of eight remaining players. It allows for the possibility of repeat testing (both of people tested within the four day window and of people tested previously in the game) and is entirely agnostic to when people might have been converted.

    That said, I do find the broader point compelling and would be delighted to vote for JeenLeen or The Outsider just as soon as you've been tested and I know for sure that you're not just trying to direct our attention off of the people on your list. I mean, consider the possibility (from the bystander PoV) that you and I are the two Things - me as the N1 Thing staging an accusation against you and then converting you as a giant distancing play which also sets you up for this pro-retest argument that just so happens to exclude the both of us from consideration. Apogee1 or Elenna could plausibly be trying something similar, or the opposite could be going on with you as the N1 Thing converting one of us untested three while you do a stage magician trick to keep us from ever being tested.
    Nothing to say. I agree with the first part.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Book, you somehow forgot my votes. Actual Tally:

    Apogee1 (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    JeenLeen (3): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna
    Grek (2): Valmark, Apogee1
    The Outsider (1): AvatarVecna

    Not voting: Book Wombat x2
    Town would prefer clearing up mistakes, but this is enough small that a Thing would've done it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Technically those odds include the possibility that we test the same person today and tomorrow. P(Us catching at least one Thing today)=(1 - (6/8)^2)=0.4375, while P(Us catching at least one Thing tomorrow|no Things caught today)=(1 - (5/8)^2)=0.609375, for a combined total of P(Us catching at least one Thing using those four votes)=0.4375+(0.5625*0.609375)=0.7802734375 - the 78% figure I came to as the Town's odds. In other words, not catching ANY Things requires that we miss two 25% chances and then miss two 37.5% chances, which is actually pretty unlikely. It doesn't factor in the possibility of the Things trying to manipulate the vote, nor does it factor in any intelligent play from the Town, it just assumes that we pick randomly each time.

    In other news, I've finally puzzled out where AvatarVecna and I were talking past one another with regards to this post (bolding mine):The part in bold was supposed to refer to the odds of the Things. We're still in 'IMAGINATION' land, where we're pretending that we're AvatarVecna, the N1 conversion trying to figure out who to convert on N2. For some reason I thought 'I'm inclined to start re-testing today.' was a segue out of that reference frame and into a frame where we're talking about Town odds and what the Town should do, instead of looking at things from the perspective of what the Things would want to get people to do. With that cleared up, AV's posts make a great deal more sense to me.
    Explanation here too. Thank you for that again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    That moves JeenLeen into the lead, but brings Apogee1 and AvatarVecna into a tie. In order to avoid having to deal with a tie, I'm changing my vote to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen, for a vote count of:

    JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Apogee1, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat

    I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.
    I think you explain later why it can't be AV/The Outsider, for example.

    Also with my headcanon that Apogee1 is a Thing and knowing that you considered them a priority this might look like you're defending them. Pending the explanation.

    Saying ahead of time that you'll be confused by people not being Things looks in some way like you're preparing the ground for being wrong- or at least this is a reasoning I once heard (applied to me).
    I don't agree, but I'd like to point it out.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Not exactly, but I did have good reasons for those specific suggestions. But since it that information now has some bearing on conversions, I'd prefer not to explain until after me explaining won't do the Things any good.
    You explained it afterwards.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.

    At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting for Elenna and The Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)
    Alright, everything here makes sense and self-voting on what might be the last Day helps nobody.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    I only saw that post after the N3 started. If Elenna actually didn't make the obvious connection, then it was possible that the Things might also not have made the connection. If Elenna already figured it out but was asking for other reasons, explaining during D4 was just as good as explaining during N3. Not a huge deal either way, but absent any particularly good reason why it couldn't wait until after the next day, I decided to avoid night-talk. After all, a Thing reading that post could easily come to the conclusion that I'd support a Apogee1/The Outsider vote today, even though I'm no planning to vote Apogee at all today.
    I'm drawing a distinction here between making assessments based off of the state of the game (inferences made on the state of the game and theorizing about what you'd personally try if you were in a a given position) vs. making assessments based off of knowledge about the individual players (stuff like me being a relative unknown who is hard to read, or Party of Rogues always being late to D1). While the former sort of analysis is generally more useful, it's also more subject to change based on a person's position in the game; in my experience scum are more willing to lie about what they think the scum would be doing a given situation than they would be about the previous game history of various players. Yesterday, I was sure you were a Thing and so treated your arguments with suspicion. Today, I know that you weren't a Thing and that I can trust those arguments. Just like I said I would here:

    I now know for sure that you weren't trying to protect a scum buddy. The argument that the Things are definitely going to try to convert people who've been tested is convincing. Obviously so, or I wouldn't have made that very point pre-game and mentioned it during my first post in the thread. I get that this looks like I'm backing down and just going with the flow today and that that looks hella scummy, but to be fair it IS what I said I'd do yesterday and it is fully in agreement with what I said I think the Town should base its strategy on before the game even started. If people want to vote for me, I get it, even setting aside my insider knowledge that I'm not a Thing, I think the town would be better served by Elenna/The Outsider or by Valmark/Book Wombat, just to be dead sure of not losing instantly due to a mislynch.
    Maybe I missed it but why would Town be "dead sure" by voting those two specific combos? Especially the latter- last time I checked you were advocating for Valmark/Book Wombat/AvatarVecna being the most unlikely (while voting the last one nonetheless) and I didn't see anything changing that? The argument for retesting people would work for me but not for Book, who should have been an even more unlikely chance and not one of the priorities.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Changing my vote to The Outsider & Valmark, simply to make it less likely that we end up wasting a test on Apogee1, who is relatively unlikely to be a Thing out of the available candidates.
    Legit.


    I've noticed several incongruencies- especially in the end. Grek has never considered BW a plausible lynch as far as I see it after they got tested, so them and me together being sure to cstch a Thing seems... Extremely dubious.
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  7. - Top - End - #217
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    Default Re: The Thing

    AvatarVecnahas too many posts to quote all of them.

    So, D3 we know she was Town, so everything she posted checks out. Obviously. In addition to this you know what I think about putting in extra work (which is why I'm not overly convinced Grek's a Thing or Town- she puts in the extra work, but I don't know her well and some things she wrote are suspicious in hindsight and presentsight) so I can't say anything bad about her.

    On D4 she kept it up and there was something I didn't get, which she explained in a way that makes sense to me- I have no reason to vote for her when I have better candidates for my votes.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Apogee1 time! And they actually look less Thingy then I thought they would.



    Spoiler: Apogee1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Yeah Iím fine-ish being voted here cause it would be foolhardy to let people endgame without being tested once.

    If we are hunting for n1 conversions I think AV is a bad choice however.

    N2? More reasonable maybe. Then again they havenít posted yet so Iíll reserve judgement.

    Iíll vote in like 10 minutes for Grek and a to be determined +1 once I get a chance to be on a PC so I donít have to struggle with color tags in mobile.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Grek and JeenLeen

    Grek should be fairly obvious why

    JeenLeen just kind of struck me as the most likely previously tested person to be converted (either night now) for vague reasons.

    - - - Updated - - -

    As part of an experiment and to explain to Valmark in part what I was going on about with early voting -- I'll give 60% odds on exactly AV and I being tested today and 90% at least one of us will.

    Which well might be defensible with the state of this game, but its not ideal in half the circumstances early wagon inertia seems to come up in.

    - - - Updated - - -



    I disagree strongly with this for the record.

    I assume this is based, in part, off of Cao's SOD2 wallpost.

    I think it is exceptionally strange to not mention one of his thing buddies in a post where he selfvotes. Unalign yourself and all that.
    Besides voting for Jeen for 'vague' reasons and disagreeing with me there's nothing that jumps to mind here- and disagreeing with me isn't a Thing move. Especially since Apogee wasn't implied where we disagreed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Can we get a source on this

    A few places I've "argued against it quite a bit"
    To be fair, I haven't seen bad responses from them either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I canít decide if I want JeenLeen or Valmark as my second vote.

    On a reread, I somewhat disliked one of Valmark posts earlier today (Iíll pull it up in a second).

    AV is like a possibility I suppose

    But I highly doubt they were a thing before tonight. And I have a sneaking suspicion the n2 thing has already been tested idk.
    The post showed up waaaaay afterwards, nothing else to say here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Grek needs a test today.

    I can't give you a reason why AV got tested over me but I mean, if you want to push the (incorrect) angle that "I have a thing buddy (in this case, exactly one) trying to keep me off the vote" I'd suggest, you know, coming up with who that might be?

    Because, I have the unique position of knowing that all three top wagons considered yesterday were town. I was wrong on JeenLeen being converted. So, no things were really in danger. Sure, Grek and like TO and Valmark (which I think contains 1+ thing as a group but that's a seperate issue) got discussed or voted a bit, but weren't really going over.

    I also thing the AV votes are mediocre especially in retrospect.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Is not listing me as a n2 an oversight or because you don't think I was the N2 for some reason?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Similarly AV

    Why'd you think it was an off chance I flip thing? AFAICT that wasn't really a position you had held earlier?

    - - - Updated - - -



    To clarify myself, this was votes on AV not votes by AV

    - - - Updated - - -



    Valmark can you talk about your progression from this post into:

    - - - Updated - - -



    voting Grek here?

    Because it seems you've come away with having no thing suspects but me, but haven't actually cleared a bunch of people, and end up on Grek who you just pretty strongly townread?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Grek and The Outsider.

    Something something maximize the chance of hitting the n1 idk.
    Apogee1 voted congruently on their words from even the earlier day and asked some questions to push people's reasoning- that's actually pretty Towny.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Oops completely missed that part :/

    Yeah I'll go more into depth on Grek later but yes I have a reason for going for them beyond not being tested.

    Although apparently? I've missed there are only two other not tested n1s which makes this a lot easier for me I thought there was one besides TO Grek and I.

    Well that fits at least.

    Clearly I'm tired.
    Nothing to say here besides that you forgot Elenna.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I again (for the third consecutive day) am feeling AV as not a thing.

    So I feel goodish? on TO and Grek as containing one.

    Well it does for sure unless Elenna is a thing.

    Maybe I should see if I think that's the case.
    Coherent, you remembered Elenna this time.


    You still haven't talked about Grek, besides that... I don't feel as strongly about your Thinginess as before but currently I can't use my vote on you for anything useful so I'd rather keep it on you to have people pay attention when going back to check this Day.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Book Wombat

    I don't actually have anything to say on this, an incorrect vote count and voting.

    It looks like BW went back through the thread before voting so presumably they had some thoughts- would like to see them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    In fact since voting Apogee1 is currently useless let me switch to Book Wombat and Grek, so that when in D4 there will be a vote pointing to the issue.
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  8. - Top - End - #218
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    Sorry, was going to post more stuff today but then Stardew Valley update 1.5 came out and ate my free time.

    Re: AV's list of possible combos: If Apogee was the N1 convert, he would be picking someone N2 while knowing that he was under a good deal of heat and there was a strong chance his conversion would be the only Thing come N3. Given that, I can't imagine Apogee picking Book Wombat, who was clearly very confused about what was going on. That's not someone you want as your only living team member. So in the world where Apogee is the N1 convert, I think either Outsider or Valmark is the N2. I could maybe see BW as the N3 convert.

    I'm less sure about this, but I don't think N1-convert!Outsider would have picked BW either, I think Outsider would want someone on their team who's more confident in their ability to do analysis, since Outsider has said that's not their strong suit.

    Given that Grek and Valmark are tied for votes right now, it's interesting that AV thinks Grek but not Valmark was getting too much heat to be a reasonable N3 conversion. AV, were you surprised by the wagon on Valmark today? Looking for people who mentioned suspecting Grek or Valmark on D3:
    • JeenLeen listed myself, Grek, and Valmark, in no particular order but maybe leaning slightly towards Valmark, as their third-place picks for the lynch
    • Valmark voted Grek but didn't seem to have strong suspicions on them, and then switched to JeenLeen for a retest.
    • Outsider says Valmark would have been his pick for a conversion
    • Apogee voted Grek because "should be fairly obvious why". He also mentions that he didn't like one of Valmark's posts.
    • AV has a long back-and-forth with Grek, but I understood that as AV trying to explain their reasoning rather than AV being suspicious of Grek (at the time).

    Kinda looks to me like there was about the same amount of suspicion on both of them. Yes, converting Grek would mean converting another untested person, but after AV argued convincingly for re-testing on D3 (and then turned out to be town), Things might expect us to do more re-testing, which might lead them to convert un-tested people. IMO either Grek and Valmark are both possible candidates for N3 conversion, or neither is. (I'd say both.)

    Speaking of which,
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Yeah I'll go more into depth on Grek later but yes I have a reason for going for them beyond not being tested.
    I don't think Apogee ever answered this, unless I missed something?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Good point, I agree that this could be a good way to cast votes today.
    That being said, if you're not a thing then either Grek or Outsider was the N1 conversion, which means if I vote for one of them then I have a 50-50 chance of hitting a Thing even without taking analysis into account. So it doesn't actually change my plan to vote for you and one of Grek or Outsider today.
    Using this as a framework to look at Apogee, Outsider, and Grek, the only possible N1 conversions from my POV, and to explain why I'm rethinking this and switching to Grek + Outsider.

    Voting Apogee + Outsider:
    • In the world where Apogee is a Thing, I have a 100% chance of catching a Thing (Apogee) plus a 50% chance of catching a second Thing (based on the above logic that Apogee would convert either Outsider or Valmark).
    • In the world where Apogee isn't a Thing, I have a 50% chance of catching a Thing (because either Outsider or Grek is the N1 conversion in that world).
    • Note: Both those 50% chances are somewhat larger than that in reality, because I think Outsider is more likely to be a Thing than Grek or Valmark. Also there's the possibility Grek was converted N1 and then converted Outsider N2, which increases the second probability a little. But I'm ignoring that to simplify this math.
    • So Apogee + Outsider gives me an average of x(1.5) + (1-x)(0.5) = x+0.5 Things caught, where x is the probability that Apogee was converted N1.


    Voting Apogee + Grek is clearly worse than the above because it gives a 0% chance of catching a second Thing if Apogee is a Thing. That's basically a special case of AV's reasoning that we shouldn't vote two untested people.

    Voting Grek + Outsider:
    • In the world where Apogee is a Thing, there's a 50% chance this catches a Thing (again, assuming Apogee would convert either Outsider or Valmark). Plus a chance of catching two Things, because as mentioned above I think there's a chance of Grek being the N3 conversion, but I'm going to ignore that because it makes the "average number of Things caught" math more complicated and I don't feel like writing out a bunch more math.
    • In the world where Apogee is not a Thing, this has a 100% chance of catching a Thing because one of them must be the N1 conversion, plus a chance of catching two Things if one of them converted the other one. Based on AV's chart, the chance that one of them converted the other one is 25%. I think it's slightly larger than that, because I think Grek could have been the N3 conversion and I don't think Outsider would have converted Wombat, but we can go with 25%.
    • So Grek + Outsider gives an average of x(0.5) + (1-x)(1.25) = 1.25 - 0.75x Things caught - again, x being the probability Apogee is a Thing.


    So from my POV (worth pointing out that this all takes for granted that I'm not a Thing, which is obviously not something that anyone else can know for sure), Grek + Outsider is a better pair of votes than Apogee + Outsider if x + 0.5 < 1.25 - 0.75x, or 1.75x < 0.75, or x < ~45%. That is, I should vote Apogee over Grek only if I think the chance that Apogee is a wolf is about 45% or more.

    If we ignore analysis and assume pure random chance, Apogee, Grek, and Outsider all have 33% chances of being the N1 convert. I think Apogee's a more likely N1 convert than Grek or Outsider, but I'm not sure they're that much more likely. Plus it doesn't look like an Apogee wagon is going to happen today, so I might as well move my vote somewhere where it can actually be useful, if only for future vote-analysis purposes. Hence, switching to Grek and Outsider.

    Current vote count:
    Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee, Valmark, AV, Grek
    Grek (4): Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, Elenna
    Valmark (3): Outsider, AV, Grek

    ----

    A couple responses:

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    And now that the two people Elenna voted have flipped innocent, it's Apogee's fault even though she's previously argued for his innocence and the primary evidence seems to be...that people believed her and me? So those people who believed our Apogee defense and voted elsewhere are now scumbuddies? And Elenna's calling out TO and Grek for voting the exact same way Elenna voted???
    FWIW I did observe that the "Apogee was protected by a scumbuddy" theory makes me look suspicious as well as making TO and Grek look suspicious. I'm just not calling myself out because I know I'm not a Thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.
    Yeah, that makes sense re: AV and Apogee. I think I didn't make that connection earlier because I was also defending Apogee, so it didn't occur to me to think about why a Thing!AV might be making that argument because in my mind it was a reasonable townie argument.
    I don't agree about JeenLeen and Outsider, though. AV's argument was basically that the Things wouldn't both be untested, i.e. at least one of the two Things at the time had already been tested once. If JeenLeen flipped Thing, then we would already have found the one already-tested Thing, so I don't think there would have been a reason to favour doing another retest.
    Anyways, doesn't really matter now since neither of them flipped Thing.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ninja'd by Valmark. Here's the correct vote count:
    Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee, AV, Grek
    Grek (4): Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, Elenna
    Valmark (3): Outsider, AV, Grek
    Book Wombat (1): Valmark
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  9. - Top - End - #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through.
    Plus there's a fair amount of overlap in the pools of "good N1 conversions" and "good N2 conversions", I think, so maybe we'll manage to get both of them.

    Something I remembered during the Night, from the Crazier Idea game:

    Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before.
    Also IMO, Apogee was the one person I was almost certain was going to be tested today, so it seems pretty unlikely they were the N2 conversion. Doesn't mean they couldn't be the N1 conversion, and I can understand people voting for them on that account. But since I'm personally not that suspicious of Apogee, I don't want to vote for them and give up the possibility of finding the N2 conversion.

    I think we should re-test one of JeenLeen and Outsider today. For one thing, I agree with AV that the Things probably picked at least one already-tested person by this point. We could re-test BW or Valmark, I guess, but there's only one night they could have been converted versus two nights JL/Outsider could have been converted. Plus I'm skeptical that the Thing would pick BW who was almost completely checked out of the game by the end of D2 - there's obviously a possibility of WIFOM there, but it seems like too risky of a play.
    Also, like I said yesterday, I would put a slightly higher probability that Cao put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his "to convert" list, and it did seem like he was moving JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they deserved.

    Of the two of them, JeenLeen feels like they would be a more attractive conversion target. They were playing pretty well D2, and even D1 they seemed more engaged and were doing more analysis than Outsider, even if I disagreed with several of their D1 arguments.

    That leaves AV or Grek for my other vote. I want to vote for at least one of them today, instead of doing another re-test on Outsider, BW, or Valmark, both because I don't think any of those three are particularly likely to be Things and because AV and Grek have been driving a lot of the discussion, which is obviously bad if one of them is a Thing.

    Looking at it again, my argument against Grek was mostly a counterargument against the statement that "Grek wouldn't stick their neck out when they weren't in danger". That's a reason Grek isn't innocent, but it's not actually a reason Grek is a wolf. If I had a reason to be particularly suspicious of Grek, I don't remember it now.

    Honestly, I know AV is good enough at deception that I can't tell when they're a wolf, and I suspect Grek is too.

    As Grek said, it does seem weird that AV argued for everyone posting "who would I convert" lists and then claimed that we should ignore Caoimhin's list because it was too WIFOM-y. But both those posts were the same day, so it's not like AV changed their mind because of being converted.
    Hmm, I wonder if maybe Thing!Caoimhin didn't actually run that list by AV before posting it, so AV didn't have a chance to tell Caoimhin to avoid putting AV in the middle, and that's why AV changed their mind on the usefulness of conversion lists? There was only ~1.5 hours between the suggestion of "we should post a list of people to convert" and Caoimhin actually posting their list, maybe Cao decided not to take the time to discuss it?
    IDK, it's a bit of a stretch since both AV and Caoimhin were online at the time (based on their posts) and AV could just have posted in Thing chat saying "hey, put me near the end of that list". But it could fit what we see, and I don't think AV has actually explained why they changed their mind about lists yet.

    Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now. I'm picking AV instead of Grek because of the above, and because nobody has actually posted much of an argument against Grek beyond "they're a good player so they would be a good convert", which is just as true of AV.
    Everything seems to check out- I especially agree on Apogee1. It's also coherent with another post that I'll point out in a bit.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Could you tell us why you're voting for those two? Especially Outsider, there's been a lot of people giving reasons to vote for Apogee, but Outsider is a more unusual choice.



    I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?
    She pushed for explainations, which is always good, and we know she wasn't protecting them since AV and Jeen flipped Town.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Okay, so there are 3 Things out of 8 players right now, meaning we absolutely need to find at least one Thing today. (I guess given the tie rules, 4 Things out of 8 players might not count as a win for the Things? But if we get to that point it's pretty much a win for the Things.)

    From process of elimination:
    • At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
    • Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
    • Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.


    So I'm looking at voting two of Apogee, Grek, Outsider, or Valmark today. (Leaving myself off the list for obvious reasons.)

    I think I've changed my mind on Apogee's towniness. Like I mentioned yesterday, I initially thought his not voting in the first round of D2 wasn't indicative of anything, because it didn't make sense to me that a Thing would avoid bussing Caoimhin there given that Cao was clearly doomed. But then I remembered Apogee mentioning in Crazier Idea that they haven't ever bussed a teammate, so maybe this does suggest that Apogee and Cao were teammates.



    Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead. Kinda makes it look like they had a Thing buddy helping them out? And yes, I realize that me pushing Apogee's innocence yesterday looks suspicious in retrospect, feel free to suspect me for that. But it's worth noting that at the time when I posted my defense of Apogee, it looked like Apogee was all but guaranteed to be tested. If Apogee and I were both Things at that point, I would have just bussed.
    On the other hand, both Grek and Outsider switched from Apogee to someone else at just the right time to push another person into the lead. In fact, if I'm counting right, both of them broke ties in such a way as to push Apogee into third place. Suspicious.

    So, one of my votes is going on Apogee, and the other one is going on either Grek or Outsider - both because they suspiciously shifted their votes off Apogee, and because they could be either the N1 convert or the N2 convert while Valmark could only be the N2 convert.

    Looking at Grek and Outsider's votes yesterday:


    Why did you choose to vote AV + JeenLeen instead of Apogee + JeenLeen? Did you have a particular reason to be more suspicious of AV? Not saying this was necessarily an illogical decision given what we knew at the time - that would be silly, since I also voted AV + JL - but I want to hear what Outsider's thought process was.


    This looks better to me than Outsider's post above, mostly because Grek acknowledges that they're breaking the tie, it doesn't feel like they want to hide that fact like they might if they were on a team with Apogee. Still want an answer to my question about that last paragraph, if only for my own curiosity, but I don't think it's a wolf tell.

    I'm going to vote Apogee and The Outsider, although this might change when Outsider answers my question above.
    Good points I had forgotten about Apogee- doesn't change my thoughts on Apogee. Notably though seeing how it looked like Apogee1 would -finally- get tested this could be distancing too. If Elenna or Apogee turn up Thing I'd test the other.

    Also pushing for explanation.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Any particular reason, or just a matter of "they're a good player and they haven't been tested yet"?


    Like I said above, I think Grek and Outsider both changed their votes in such a way that you didn't get tested, and one of them might have been doing it on purpose. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here?




    ----


    Hmm, I can definitely understand wanting to know if AV was telling the truth. On the other hand, D2 you put Apogee first and AV fifth on you list of people you would want to convert. Did you change your mind about that?



    Good point, I agree that this could be a good way to cast votes today.
    That being said, if you're not a thing then either Grek or Outsider was the N1 conversion, which means if I vote for one of them then I have a 50-50 chance of hitting a Thing even without taking analysis into account. So it doesn't actually change my plan to vote for you and one of Grek or Outsider today.
    Clearing up an apparent misunderstanding and pushing for explanation.


    Elenna like Grek looks more active then she is.
    There's a general acting Townie feel and in addition she's been coherent from D3 to D4 by jumping on Grek and TO when AV and JL turned up Town (those four were who she wanted to check).

    I'd keep an eye on her, since she's been basically flying under the radar, but hasn't said anything that makes me want to test her. That... Might be a dangerous combination if she's a Thing.

  10. - Top - End - #220
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Sorry, was going to post more stuff today but then Stardew Valley update 1.5 came out and ate my free time.

    Re: AV's list of possible combos: If Apogee was the N1 convert, he would be picking someone N2 while knowing that he was under a good deal of heat and there was a strong chance his conversion would be the only Thing come N3. Given that, I can't imagine Apogee picking Book Wombat, who was clearly very confused about what was going on. That's not someone you want as your only living team member. So in the world where Apogee is the N1 convert, I think either Outsider or Valmark is the N2. I could maybe see BW as the N3 convert.

    I'm less sure about this, but I don't think N1-convert!Outsider would have picked BW either, I think Outsider would want someone on their team who's more confident in their ability to do analysis, since Outsider has said that's not their strong suit.

    Given that Grek and Valmark are tied for votes right now, it's interesting that AV thinks Grek but not Valmark was getting too much heat to be a reasonable N3 conversion. AV, were you surprised by the wagon on Valmark today? Looking for people who mentioned suspecting Grek or Valmark on D3:
    • JeenLeen listed myself, Grek, and Valmark, in no particular order but maybe leaning slightly towards Valmark, as their third-place picks for the lynch
    • Valmark voted Grek but didn't seem to have strong suspicions on them, and then switched to JeenLeen for a retest.
    • Outsider says Valmark would have been his pick for a conversion
    • Apogee voted Grek because "should be fairly obvious why". He also mentions that he didn't like one of Valmark's posts.
    • AV has a long back-and-forth with Grek, but I understood that as AV trying to explain their reasoning rather than AV being suspicious of Grek (at the time).

    Kinda looks to me like there was about the same amount of suspicion on both of them. Yes, converting Grek would mean converting another untested person, but after AV argued convincingly for re-testing on D3 (and then turned out to be town), Things might expect us to do more re-testing, which might lead them to convert un-tested people. IMO either Grek and Valmark are both possible candidates for N3 conversion, or neither is. (I'd say both.)
    No, I was not surprised. I did the math for that table as soon as the night ended, and came to a few conclusions - among them were which that BW, TO, and Valmark were the names showing up in the most viable combos. Given that BW is only on the list for being a poor choice but not (IMO) a disastrous one, I think BW would be less likely to get targeted for a conversion than Valmark. And while Grek is similarly suspicious in terms of behavior, the longer the game has gone on the worse I think of them as a conversion target, just because they're untested.

    Using this as a framework to look at Apogee, Outsider, and Grek, the only possible N1 conversions from my POV, and to explain why I'm rethinking this and switching to Grek + Outsider.
    ...I think I've been looking at this all wrong. I need to check something.


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  11. - Top - End - #221
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Oh great a giant post while I'm reading yours.
    (This sounds more sarcastic then it is).

    No, Apogee1 hasn't offered anything about Grek.
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  12. - Top - End - #222
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Spoiler: Some Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Grek and The Outsider.

    Something something maximize the chance of hitting the n1 idk.
    Bolded/underlined for emphasis.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting for Apogee1 and Valmark.
    Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting for Elenna and The Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)
    Bolded/underlined for emphasis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Changing my vote to The Outsider & Valmark, simply to make it less likely that we end up wasting a test on Apogee1, who is relatively unlikely to be a Thing out of the available candidates.
    Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Grek and Valmark.
    Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    If we ignore analysis and assume pure random chance, Apogee, Grek, and Outsider all have 33% chances of being the N1 convert. I think Apogee's a more likely N1 convert than Grek or Outsider, but I'm not sure they're that much more likely. Plus it doesn't look like an Apogee wagon is going to happen today, so I might as well move my vote somewhere where it can actually be useful, if only for future vote-analysis purposes. Hence, switching to Grek and Outsider.
    Bolded/underlined for emphasis.


    I wasn't in their shoes at the start of today, the way I was yesterday, so I forgot the situation they're in for a second. Put yourself in TO's shoes for a second:

    You're a townie. You know that for absolute sure. And based on TO's last post, you're accepting that the Apogee argument looks a lot less solid than you thought previously. So that's Apogee as very-probably-not-scum. You look back at the N1 conversion. There's only four people it could be - Apogee1, Elenna, Grek, and The Outsider. Since you know it can't be TO, and you're pretty sure it can't be Apogee1...obviously you vote Elenna/Grek, to guarantee catching at least one scum so that town doesn't auto-lose today. You probably won't catch two unless you're lucky/scum is stupid, but you just have to catch one.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Apogee1 and Valmark.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Grek and Valmark.
    You read through those posts I quoted, and you can see - The Outsider doesn't seem to be thinking about the N1 conversion at all. It's the strongest argument he could make in his own defense, and instead he's voting Valmark. He's just going along with one person I said to vote, instead of pointing out (what should be, from TO's PoV) an obvious flaw in my voting plan.

    ...let's see how the others hold up.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Grek and The Outsider.
    Apogee is thinking about the N1 conversion, and doesn't have much else to go on so far, so he's just voting with his gut from that list of three. That checks out - scum could do that too, but doing it is way less scummy than not doing it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Grek and Outsider.
    Elenna had a big analysis post about the N1 conversion and who she thinks is the likely candidate. This is the kind of effort I really wanna see from town on this kinda thing, and it clearly shows this has been on her mind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Elenna and The Outsider.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    The Outsider & Valmark
    Grek starts out citing the N1 conversion hunt as the reason behind her votes, and then...forgets about it and changes her votes to exactly match mine? The general impression I've gotten from throughout this game is that Grek is pretty solid on analysis, I don't see her forgetting how far we've got the N1 conversion narrowed down. So why deflect off of it when she should be pushing the exact same point that Elenna just pushed, that I'm pushing now?

    Grek and The Outsider. I could maybe believe that one of them honestly forgot, but both of them, when they're in the final four of the N1 conversion candidates? No. Grek/The Outsider is guaranteed to catch at least one wolf, and my gut is telling me we've got a solid chance at catching two. In the case that they both flip Thing, I'm also clearing Valmark - no way they'd both throw him under the bus like that, they were just going along with an easy lynch that got set up by me.


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  13. - Top - End - #223
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Grek starts out citing the N1 conversion hunt as the reason behind her votes, and then...forgets about it and changes her votes to exactly match mine? The general impression I've gotten from throughout this game is that Grek is pretty solid on analysis, I don't see her forgetting how far we've got the N1 conversion narrowed down. So why deflect off of it when she should be pushing the exact same point that Elenna just pushed, that I'm pushing now?
    At the time I decided to flip, the vote count looked like this:

    The Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee1, Grek, AvatarVecna
    Apogee1 (3): Elenna, Valmark, The Outsider
    Grek (2): Apogee1, Valmark
    Valmark (2): The Outsider, AvatarVecna
    Elenna (1): Grek

    Look at that bolded bit from my perspective. I know that the statistically best votes to avoid LYLO are either Book Wombat/Valmark, Elenna/Outsider, Outsider/Grek or Grek/Elenna. I know that I'm Town, so that eliminates the last two options from my consideration: I want to make today's vote be either Book Wombat/Valmark or Elenna/Outsider if there's any way to make that happen. Unfortunately, as things stand, neither is a serious possibility and sticking with my initial vote means that the ultimate vote is going to be Outsider/Apogee1. A mixed strategy like Valmark/Outsider is less good than a pure strategy, but still statistically better than Outsider/Apogee1. Seriously, check the math on it:

    Spoiler: Math
    Show
    Apogee/Outsider avoids a Thing if Elenna was the N1 convert (1/3) and Outsider was not the N2 convert (4/5) for a total of 11/15 (73%) that the Town gets at least one thing.

    Conversely Outsider/Valmark avoids a Thing only if (2/3) TO wasn't picked N1 (2/3), neither was picked N2 (2/4) and Valmark wasn't picked N3 (3/4), for a total of 36/48 (75%) that the town gets a Thing.

    Both of these are inferior to Outsider/Elenna (which requires (1/3) followed by (2/4) for a total of 10/12 aka 83% chance of getting a Thing), but as previously noted Outsider/Elenna wasn't something that I could make happen.

    Outsider/Valmark was, so I went for it.


    Unfortunately, that has apparently resulted in us ending up at Outsider/Grek. Which is just as good from the perspective of non-Grek Town as Outsider/Elenna (good!), but known to me from my perspective to include at least one wasted vote (uh oh). So while I like that everyone is going for one of the logical voting options now... please reconsider?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I've noticed several incongruencies- especially in the end. Grek has never considered BW a plausible lynch as far as I see it after they got tested, so them and me together being sure to cstch a Thing seems... Extremely dubious.
    Wombat/Valmark isn't guaranteed to catch a Thing. Rather, the logic behind that vote pairing is that you two the only ones who seem like plausible N2 AND N3 conversion targets, making for a mirror of the N1/N2 situation with Elenna/Outsider/me. The raw stats are better going by AV's numbers, but again as you've noted those are AV's numbers and are premised on the Things definitely not double-converting untested people. If we allow for a small chance that they did double convert untested people, either through scum error or as a weird WIFOM ploy, you're basically back down to even odds with Elenna/The Outsider, Elenna/Grek or Grek/The Outsider as a vote. Hence why those four were my possible considerations in the post above.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Upon rereading, I can see the argument against Apogee1. I'll switch my votes to Grek and Valmark. As was noted, I unwittingly advocated for voting the already-tested earlier while keeping my votes on the untested. This was a mistake. Someone who was retested has most likely been converted. I've already given reasons why Valmark might have been the N2, and I'm sticking with it. Meanwhile, Grek has not only been putting out good analysis, their activity has risen recently. We were supposed to look for behavioral changes, so I'm going to go with that one for the moment.

    As far as my actions go, I did this already. As you might have noticed, I'm having a hard time with this game. My actions are inconsistent, weakly reasoned, and generally seem shady. That being said, the last time said actions got me voted I was clean. I'm clean now as well, and I don't think I'll be converted for at LEAST another night (though now that I've said something, I might get proven wrong). The reason is, I work much better for Things as a scapegoat and a waste of votes than I do as a member of their team. All they have to do is wait for me to speak, and I'll probably provide a way to split votes off from the real Things. It might be counterintuitive, but think about it this way: why convert someone who has already been proven to constantly attract suspicion while innocent?
    So in short, don't vote for me. I've helped the Things waste enough of the Town's time as-is.
    This is overall a very weird post. While the actual vote is a mirror of my own for their position, it doesn't look like TO arrived at it by the same logic that I did. Instead justification is that I've been more active than usual and do good analysis. That doesn't seem like a good reason to me. The rest of the post is arguing that we shouldn't vote for them because everyone things TO is scum in this game, even when they're not. But that's exactly why the Things would have converted him. He's been previously tested and has a built in excuse for looking suspicious and for making weird calls. I am overall pretty confident in Outsider as a vote, which is why I'm not in Full Panic Mode over the current vote going after me - we'll probably get a Thing in TO and then jump onto the obvious other Thing from there. (Not posting just yet who I think the obvious other Thing is, you'll see once I'm cleared.)

    Side note: Everyone keeps noting that I seem like I post more than I do. Which, yeah, fair cop. I'm a fairly terse writer and struggle to spell out my thoughts explicitly. But my analysis has been consistently useful, as people have noted, and that makes it so that the stuff I do post has an outsized impact on the conversation. I don't feel like that should be a scum tell so much as a 'Grek is just like that' tell.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-22 at 06:15 AM.

  14. - Top - End - #224
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek
    Instead justification is that I've been more active than usual and do good analysis. That doesn't seem like a good reason to me.
    In my mind, Things are going to want to convert people who are trusted and have made positive contributions throughout the game. This both destabilizes the Town's ability to catch more Things and helps them to hide themselves. Meanwhile, converting the already suspicious only helps to fulfill one of those objectives.
    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark
    You advocated for testing the re-tested and voted both untested and re-tested both toDay and last Day. That... Confuses me.
    I'm trying to split the difference. I don't want to focus solely on the re-tested and exclude other possibilities.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna
    He's just going along with one person I said to vote, instead of pointing out (what should be, from TO's PoV) an obvious flaw in my voting plan.
    I honestly wasn't trying to mirror you there. I was more focused on catching the N2 conversion (which might have been a mistake) and fell back upon my previous reasoning for why Valmark might have been converted.

    I'm kind of panicking here. Because I know I'm Town, and if Grek is unexpectedly telling the truth then we might just be about to lose the game the way this vote is shaping up.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  15. - Top - End - #225
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Apologies Iíve been driving a lot these last few days.

    But letís talk Grek.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post

    1. AvatarVecna, as despite the prophylaxis of suspicion, I think he was converted N1.
    2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
    3. The Outsider, because clearly we can't tell if they're being scummy or not.
    4. JeenLeen, because I can imagine the Things trying to exploit already tested bias.
    5. Elenna, because she's been very on point about ferreting out Things so far.
    6. Grek, because while I know that I'm not a Thing, it WOULD be nice to have the Town know that too.
    7. Book Wombat, by virtue of the odds. Nearly tied with Valmark below on that basis.
    8. Valmark, by virtue of the odds, and making some good points about Apogee1.
    So I could continue on with Grek and like d1 and why heíd fit as a conversion and all that and might go back and do so.

    But like, can we just think about this list for a second. Iím not really sure how to describe what I think is thing-y about it, but I think it is thing-y if that makes sense? Like a bunch of small things. The placing of himself 6th. The reasons on Jeen and TO like, feel thin? Obviously at least 3/4 of the bottom 4 are wrong but town are wrong plenty as well so thatís more an aside. I think him pivoting off me so fully on the basis of AVís read is strange.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Hmm.

    I guess like, thereís some weird team with like, Elenna and 1+ of AV/Valmark we are losing to right now.

    But I donít think? Thatís the case. Guess itís worth a last minute thought

    - - - Updated - - -

    Anyways also regarding Grek ó I remain convinced self-voting Cao is going to mention/shade a partner while going down. Grek like, falls right there. And like, he fits all the markers for an n1

  16. - Top - End - #226
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Haven't had time to read up, but posting to avoid the autolynch in about 30 minutes.
    I didn't see my autolynching previously, but if I missed it and shouldn't be posting, sorry.

  17. - Top - End - #227
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Haven't had time to read up, but posting to avoid the autolynch in about 30 minutes.
    I didn't see my autolynching previously, but if I missed it and shouldn't be posting, sorry.
    I think you're good. Very long story short, vote The Outsider and either Grek or Valmark. I keep flip-flopping between those two in my head, but I'm feeling super-solid on TO. EDIT: At least part of that is, I'm sure enough that TO is about to get caught out, that even if Grek or Valmark isn't a Thing, it'd be good to get them confirmed trustworthy. This is extra-true of Grek, who's made a lot of arguments and has a lot of analysis. But if it's just gonna catch a second Thing, as I suspect, that's even better.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-22 at 02:49 PM.


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  18. - Top - End - #228
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Wombat/Valmark isn't guaranteed to catch a Thing. Rather, the logic behind that vote pairing is that you two the only ones who seem like plausible N2 AND N3 conversion targets, making for a mirror of the N1/N2 situation with Elenna/Outsider/me. The raw stats are better going by AV's numbers, but again as you've noted those are AV's numbers and are premised on the Things definitely not double-converting untested people. If we allow for a small chance that they did double convert untested people, either through scum error or as a weird WIFOM ploy, you're basically back down to even odds with Elenna/The Outsider, Elenna/Grek or Grek/The Outsider as a vote. Hence why those four were my possible considerations in the post above.

    Side note: Everyone keeps noting that I seem like I post more than I do. Which, yeah, fair cop. I'm a fairly terse writer and struggle to spell out my thoughts explicitly. But my analysis has been consistently useful, as people have noted, and that makes it so that the stuff I do post has an outsized impact on the conversation. I don't feel like that should be a scum tell so much as a 'Grek is just like that' tell.
    Oh I see, makes sense voting BW then.

    Saying how you seem to be posting more is less of a Thing tell and more of an alert sign- and can be a tell if summed to other things (something like two things being a coincidence and three being a scheme).

    I was told multiple times how I make a lot of noise with little substance, so I kinda have the opposite problem (although I don't think I was terribly active this time around).
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I'm trying to split the difference. I don't want to focus solely on the re-tested and exclude other possibilities.
    My confusion was because you've voted one tested and one untested on the previous Day too (switching from two untested)- so I don't see how it was a 'mistake'.
    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Haven't had time to read up, but posting to avoid the autolynch in about 30 minutes.
    I didn't see my autolynching previously, but if I missed it and shouldn't be posting, sorry.
    Nah, haven't been auto-lynched.
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  19. - Top - End - #229
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    Default Re: The Thing

    The day ended (about 15 mins ago). I have to go tally, but no more votes.

    Final vote count:
    Grek (5): AV, Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, and Elenna
    Outsider (4): AV, Elenna, Apogee, Grek
    Valmark (2): Outsider, Greg
    Book Wombat (1): Valmark

    Not voted: Book Wombat or JeenLeen

    Grek and Outsider both get tested. Neither one of them is a Thing. BOTH are normal.

    @JL: you would have been fine because you voted D3, so it was N3, D4, N4 before you would have been lynched on D5 with no activity.

    2 town not voting really hurt because it was 3 Things vs 3 town instead of 3v5.

    With Christmas around the bend and going into tomorrow being 4v4 (assuming BW actually shows up to vote). I am going to call this for the Things. All they have to do is coordinate all of them votingthe same2 people at beginning oddly tomorrow and it is won, so rather than drag that out, I decided to end it.

    Elenna, Valmark, and AV were the things (recruited in that order).

    The thing qt is here
    Last edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-12-22 at 03:29 PM.

  20. - Top - End - #230
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Geez, I actually got fairly worried towards the end because I wasn't sure I could make a case against Grek for AV to use (Elenna did it, luckily).

    Having two Townie disappear at the end really pushed the odds towards us though.
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  21. - Top - End - #231
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Go Things!

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Hmm.

    I guess like, thereís some weird team with like, Elenna and 1+ of AV/Valmark we are losing to right now.

    But I donít think? Thatís the case. Guess itís worth a last minute thought
    Congrats on being sort of correct?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Something that amused me: Because rogue_alchemist didn't include the names of the Things in the starting post of the Thing QT, and Cao didn't post until a little later, Caerulea thought they were the only Thing when D1 started. Which means they really didn't think about where their partner was on that alphabetical list - it's just coincidence that their partner didn't get moved closer to the start of the list.
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  22. - Top - End - #232
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I find it amusing that just like in the theorycrafting dice game I did, I get converted at the last second to join the winning team.


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  23. - Top - End - #233
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Well played everyone else. This game has certainly been a learning experience, but I had fun. Sorry Thing team for throwing so hard day one. At least it all worked out in the end.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Dead Chat.
    Non caerulea sum, Caerulea nomen meum est.
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    CPW, next time THINK before you post something stupid!

  24. - Top - End - #234
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I REALLY should have gone ahead and posted my Elenna/Valmark/Outsider scumteam theory. It was 2/3rds right.

  25. - Top - End - #235
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Congrats on being sort of correct?
    Sigh.

    Had a hard time seeing AV as a thing today and without her being a thing that team seemed less likely.

    Clearly in cult games just reverse reads

  26. - Top - End - #236
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Whew, that was a ride. Gg y'all.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  27. - Top - End - #237
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Well, bummer. I'm sad I didn't get a chance to read up and vote, but I probably would have voted for Grek (no change) and AV (a Thing, but not enough votes to matter.) So I guess it didn't matter.

  28. - Top - End - #238
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    Default Re: The Thing

    This was definitely a different type of game, I enjoyed it but it really changed the way I was thinking about strategy. It was kinda weird that the safest play for things was to heavily bus one another if someone is seen as suspicious, so you avoid the extra vote. I figured Elenna would have to bus me, so really good job with doing that and staying out of people's focus.

    We mentioned it in the dead chat, but Book Wombat randomly got both of the original things with RNG and then I think Apogee listed the exact team of Things, but luckily they were able to make it through the end of the day.


    I'm also kind of glad I was dead for all of the math heavy posts, I am not a math person and not sure how I would have reacted to them as either side.

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