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Thread: The Thing

  1. - Top - End - #61
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    HalflingRogueGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Just to be clear: this extra voting period will still end at 8 PM GMT. Sorry I was late with the post.

  2. - Top - End - #62
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    Valmark's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Well, I miscalculated. Badly. I don't have time for a full-on analysis or defense, but I'll do my best to try and come back to this as soon as I can.
    I'm going to vote The Outsider. I get more a vibe of "I really want to dodge this lynch" rather then "I don't want to waste it". I could easily be wrong though- I'll be waiting for the defense.
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  3. - Top - End - #63
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Spoiler: Caerulea ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    Spoiler: This is the player list in alphabetical order.
    Show

    Apogee1
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    Caerulea
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Grek
    JeenLeen
    PartyOfRouges
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    I think JeenLeen (I think it was him) was on to something when he suggested that we just test people in a set order, at least the first go around. We are, in <=10 rounds, guaranteed to catch at least all the original things. In addition, based on who the thing is, we will have a decent idea of which people have been corrupted. After all, it makes little sense for the thing to pick someone who is about to be tested.

    That's been a long-winded way of saying I vote to cleanse Apogee1 of corruption. May he remain unharmed and human.

    - - - Updated - - -

    We get two tests, right rogue_alchemist? Do you want us to vote for both tests at the same time, for instance like this: AvatarVecna?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Rereading the OP I have realised that we only get one test per day. That makes the 'in order' plan not quite as effective, but I'm not sure what a better one is.
    Apogee1 was moved from 11th to 1st (+10)
    AvatarVecna was moved from 1st to 2nd (-1)
    Book Wombat was moved from 10th to 3rd (+8)
    Caerulea was moved from 2nd to 4th (-2)
    CaoimhinTheCape was moved from 5th to 5th (+0)
    Elenna was moved from 6th to 6th (+0)
    Grek was moved from 9th to 7th (+2)
    JeenLeen was moved from 4th to 8th (-4)
    PartyOfRouges was moved from 8th to 9th (-1)
    The Outsider was moved from 3rd to 10th (-7)
    Valmark was moved from 7th to 11th (-4)


    People who were moved further back are bolded. People who didn't vote Caerulea are underlined. PartyOfRouges and The Outsider are both, although it's hard to say if POR would've voted Caerulea or not just based on that.

    Based on this, I'm willing to 100% clear Apogee1 for now, and tentatively clear Book Wombat as well. The Outsider looks particularly suspicious.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    Elenna and Apogee1 raise excellent points, about my plan being a guaranteed lose for town if the thing(s?) are anywhere in the second half of the list I provided. To mildly reduce how dumb I look, I proposed it thinking that we got two shots each day, more if we killed one, which would allow us to clear the list in 5 days maximum. I also planned (if it was followed) to propose we test AvatarVecna and Apogee1 again the next day, as they would suddenly have become the most likely targets for thingification. In general I think repeat tests aren't a bad idea.

    Hey rogue_alchemist, how many things are there at the moment?
    In hindsight, the underlined bits are even more obvious bits of LAMIST play. The bolded part is where Caerulea publicly states that we can check everybody in 5 days (which, as I pointed out, is a super-bad strategy for town to dedicate themselves to), and then immediately undermines that plan by suggesting we test the same two people for the first two days, even though stating that out loud would ruin the point of it in the first place. It's obvious now that this is yet another way for her to avoid getting tested early (in this case, on D2).

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    Cause alphabetical lists look nicer. Not really any other reason besides that. If y'all want I'm fine with getting tested day one. I would prefer someone else only because I know I'm town, but from y'alls perspective you don't have certainty about my alignment.
    Doesn't tell us anything about a potential scumbuddy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    We do have two tests! Excellent.
    Spoiler: Vote Counts
    Show

    AvatarVecna: Valmark, Caerulea
    Apogee1: Caerulea
    Caerulea: Elenna, Grek
    Valmark: JeenLeen
    CaoimhinTheCape: Caerulea



    I am a little confused by this, but alright.

    In this case, my preferance list is as follows:
    1. CaoimhinTheCape (Haven't spoken yet. I feel like a thing would most likely not speak as much early, to avoid being the topic of discussion. They get a very large advantage by flying under the radar, and I don't think we generally vote people who are quiet early.)
    1. PartyOfRouges (see above)
    2. BookWombat (see above, less so because new player)
    3. The Outsider (Made a very small contribution who's only effect was to wagon someone who isn't them. Quite suspicious.)
    3. AvatarVecna (As above, but it's AV and reading her is hard)
    4. Apogee1 (Pointing out that what I suggested is bad (and it is) under the one test per day system, but no investigation really. Easy way for a thing to appear without risk.)
    4.5. Elenna (Pretty much same as Apogee1, but slightly less)
    5. Grek (Suggestion of ranked preference lists seems good, even if I don't completely understand her proposal)
    6. JeenLeen (I like their thoughts, and they are doing some investigative stuff. I don't agree about AV, she might get wagoned but I don't feel like she gets voted off day one that frequently. Also rogue_alchemist might want to give the starting thing to a skilled player)
    10. Valmark (Excellent point regarding my list, and is being investagative. I don't think a thing would be that bold.)
    11. Caerulea (I am not a thing, and so voting me wastes a test)

    Voting AV because I would prefer testing her to me, and Cao in case anyone else wants to try and vote someone who's quiet.

    EDIT: Switched vote to The Outsider because they seem quite thingy.
    Another list from Caerulea, this time in order of who she suspects. If Caerulea thinks she can get away with things at this point, she wouldn't put a scumbuddy near the top. If she thought she was basically already dead at this point, which isn't an unreasonable conclusion, a list like this is damage control, where she tries to give as much cover to her scumbuddy as possible. Operating on that assumption, we can clear Valmark: townies might accidentally put two wolves at the bottom of their list, but a wolf would feel psychologically pressured not to, because then if one of them gets caught, the people they were townreading the most become more suspect. Don't want them near the top either, in case anybody goes along with what she's saying. Whether she thinks she's caught or not, she probably doesn't put a scumbuddy too near the top right now, and sure enough her top three suspects are all in the crosshairs for the crime of "being quiet" - aka "these townies might not speak up too much in their own defense, and nobody will question me for going after quiet players".

    Wolf psychology suggests they'd put their scumbuddy somewhere in the middle of the list. This would be The Outsider, AvatarVecna, Apogee1, Elenna, or Grek. I know I'm clear, I'm 100% sure Apogee is clear right now, and I'm fairly certain Grek is clear too. That leaves The Outsider and Elenna fingered by this post. The edit suggests The Outsider was initially left off her list entirely, and then she changed her vote to him. That very much looks to me like scum accidentally left their scumbuddy off their suspect list and then overcorrected by voting their scumbuddy even though they're low on the suspicion list. It's not looking good for The Outsider.

    ...and that's the last we heard from Caerulea. Classic "scum shuts up once they know their goose is cooked".


    Caerulea ISO looks pretty bad for The Outsider.


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  4. - Top - End - #64
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    WhiteWizardGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Okay, so step one is to look at our newly discovered Thing's previous posts:

    1. This is the one where Caerula rearranged the player list to have themselves be further back in the fixed ordering. He also voted for Apogee1 and for AvatarVecna. I should note that Apogee1 then immediately contradicted Caerula's test-in-order strategy, which could be an example of distancing. However, Elenna posted the same thing shortly after, so by that logic Elenna might also be distancing?

    2. admits that the prior plan would be a guaranteed lose for the town with one vote. Sets the scene for later conversations.

    3. posts a vote count (listing herself as voting three times, just spotted that) and a ranked preference list reposted as follows:
    Spoiler: List
    Show
    1. CaoimhinTheCape (Haven't spoken yet. I feel like a thing would most likely not speak as much early, to avoid being the topic of discussion. They get a very large advantage by flying under the radar, and I don't think we generally vote people who are quiet early.)
    1. PartyOfRouges (see above)
    2. BookWombat (see above, less so because new player)
    3. The Outsider (Made a very small contribution who's only effect was to wagon someone who isn't them. Quite suspicious.)
    3. AvatarVecna (As above, but it's AV and reading her is hard)
    4. Apogee1 (Pointing out that what I suggested is bad (and it is) under the one test per day system, but no investigation really. Easy way for a thing to appear without risk.)
    4.5. Elenna (Pretty much same as Apogee1, but slightly less)
    5. Grek (Suggestion of ranked preference lists seems good, even if I don't completely understand her proposal)
    6. JeenLeen (I like their thoughts, and they are doing some investigative stuff. I don't agree about AV, she might get wagoned but I don't feel like she gets voted off day one that frequently. Also rogue_alchemist might want to give the starting thing to a skilled player)
    10. Valmark (Excellent point regarding my list, and is being investagative. I don't think a thing would be that bold.)
    11. Caerulea (I am not a thing, and so voting me wastes a test)
    ...with Bold replacing Red as the vote indicator. Probably the big ones to note here are the non-votes fort PartyOfRogues and BookWombat both of them were rated as being more suspicious than The Outsider, but didn't get voted for - suggesting that Caerula may have been trying to protect one these two. The other one to note is that Caerula rates Apogee1 and Elenna (the two people who called her out on the plan in zir first post) as 4/5 respectively, with Elenna having gotten an editing error (good job AV for pointing that one out) when she was (probably?) moved from 4 to 5. It should also be noted that Apogee1 switches his vote to the two other popular non-Caerula targets shortly after this post, just as the Caerula vote was picking up steam.

    That said, given that Caerula did put Apogee1 first on the list, (which would have seen him killed first instead of last had Caerula's plan been accepted), I feel that this safely rules out the Apogee1-as-distancing theory, which leads us back to either BookWombat/PartyOfRogues trying to fly under the radar or The Outsider based on these posts:
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hmm. Ordinarily, I'd RNG vote from the whole list to start things off. But since the vote only kills evils, I honestly feel a bit better about starting a wagon early. So I'm going to vote for the first person who received a vote: AvatarVecna.
    (RNG votes after a big discussion opportunity appears, no commentary on Caerula's post)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    5. Caerulea. People have made good arguments about their evil alignment, but I'm in agreement with JeenLeen's initial reasoning on this one: I don't think a Thing would have risked drawing attention to themselves like that, even if there were two of them. I can understand why people find their arguments fishy, and creating a new plan where they don't get tested does look a bit shady, but I can't help but feel like our attention is being diverted somehow.
    (Tries to argue against Caerula as sus.)
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hoo boy. I am not going to do well with this game.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Well, I miscalculated. Badly. I don't have time for a full-on analysis or defense, but I'll do my best to try and come back to this as soon as I can.
    (seems like the sort of reaction you'd get when you realize your scummate is the #1 most obvious Thing in the game.)

  5. - Top - End - #65
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    Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Just seeing the thread now, so I'll have a post with my thoughts later today. Still wrapping my head around the rules but a quick question on the voting extension: assuming we get a Thing and have another round to vote, do we get two votes in the extra round or one?
    Null, rules clarification.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Caerulea's suggestion

    Spoiler
    Show


    So, from the original post, Cae suggests that we vote in a set order, saying we'll get a thing guaranteed by round 10. This math seems like it's based on one test though, since two votes gives us a thing guaranteed in the 6th round or earlier.

    I don't like the pre-decided plan since we're telegraphing what we're doing to the Things, but with two votes per round it technically works as we'd get to a correct lynch at LyLo and then could chain a couple kills to keep the game going (unless Valmark happened to be the original thing).



    Fair point about the plan, but this is when we assumed that it was one lynch per day.



    I like this post overall, even if part of the analysis is from when we thought 1 vote. Like the point about this killing discussion.



    It was obvious that she thought we'd have two votes from her first post, but the second part I could see either as genuine town or a Thing backtracking.



    Reading this as null. Yes, Caerulea moved herself off Day 1 of a list... only to put herself on Day 2?

    EDIT: OK, this argument makes sense. In a game with 1 Thing game the list change is a difference between auto-losing and having a shot. In a 2 Thing game the list change doesn't make as much of a difference. I'm assuming 2 Things, given that we have 2 votes per day and a 1 player team that could lost randomly on Day 1 wouldn't be fun.



    Cutting down the post to the main analysis part, but I like this so far. The ranked list is helpful for analysis and I like the idea of making groups and picking someone random from them, rather than a straight order. This assumes we don't get anywhere with analysis (which, ya know, is the best option) but I like the different ideas floated.

    As it relates to Caerulea's post, it's a good analysis of the idea which works OK for a two vote game but not for a one vote.



    The Outsider

    Spoiler: The Outsider
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    Completely ignores discussion on Caerulea's plan.



    It's only the beginning of the day so I'm not worried about the ranked list yet, but there was other discussion going on that you didn't touch on at all.


    Jeen Leen

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    I disagree with the AvatarVecna reasoning from an out of game perspective. That's going on an assumption of the narrator giving out roles in a way that isn't random which (unless the game is explicitly says this) isn't exactly fair.

    I understand the defense of Caerulea (townie suggesting a flawed plan over her being a Thing) but something about the wording bothers me.

    The vote on Valmark confuses me. If I'm reading your reasoning right... Valmark's questioning is good and Townish, but anyone could do it so Valmark is a Thing?



    Self Voting is something I'll touch on below. For the second part, we do need to thread the line of not giving the Things too much info vs getting the town on board with good plans by explaining them.


    Apogee

    Spoiler
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    I'd like more explanation for the votes (even if I agree with them) and what you misremembered regarding Elenna?



    AvatarVecna

    Spoiler
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    I'd like more words from AV. I could guess your reasoning for the votes but won't put words in your mouth.




    Book Wombat
    Spoiler
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    Even if you're not great on analysis, there should be enough here for more than a random vote, yes? Looking for a little more when you have a chance to post, even if it isn't a full analysis.





    Now that I'm caught up. In almost all cases I don't see how voting yourself is helpful to the town.

    • As anyone, we don't get as much analysis from who you're willing to vote.
    • As a townie, this is a known wasted test.
    • As a townie who is suspected and wants to prove your innocence... well, you're suspicious and people are already voting you.
    • As a Thing, this can be done to get brownie points if you're not in danger of being tested.



    As for my list:

    1. JeenLeen - Has given decent reasons not to vote the people he's voting.
    2. The Outsider - Ignores Caerulea's plan and the discussion of it. Posted a few times, so avoiding that seems suspicious.
    3. Caerulea - Made a plan under the idea of 2 votes a day (which wasn't perfect). Points for trying, but the arguments for her being a Thing are also decent.

    4. PartyOfRouges - No posts.
    5. Book Wombat - Don't love completely random votes at the moment, especially when they line up with the vote leader anyway.
    6. AvatarVecna - One post on rules clarification and another with only votes. Don't like it but AV has been quiet early games as town in the past.

    7. Apogee1 - Not as much to go on, but OK for now.
    8. Valmark - Not as sure as the people below but nothing pinged me as evil yet.

    9. Grek - Good analysis, town read so far.
    10. Elenna - Good analysis, town read so far. Has a few extra posts so gets the bottom spot.


    I separated it out into groups just to give people a little separation. I'm happy with any of the top three as a vote for now, but I think it's ideal to have at least 3 competing wagons since 2 people are tested each day.

    Could be convinced to vote for 4-6 today, depending on how it goes. Don't see myself voting for anyone I ranked 7+.




    Vote Count:

    Avatar Vecna (2): Valmark, AvatarVecna
    Caerulea (6): Elenna, Grek, JeenLeen, Valmark, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
    Valmark (1): JeenLeen
    CaoimhinTheCape (2): Caerulea, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (4): Caerulea, Apogee1, The Outsider, CaoimhinTheCape
    JeenLeen (4): Apogee1, The Outsider, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape

    Not voting: PartyOfRouges, PartyOfRouges, Grek
    Massive analysis post and a readlist. Let's touch on a bit of that analysis:

    Reading this as null. Yes, Caerulea moved herself off Day 1 of a list... only to put herself on Day 2?

    EDIT: OK, this argument makes sense. In a game with 1 Thing game the list change is a difference between auto-losing and having a shot. In a 2 Thing game the list change doesn't make as much of a difference. I'm assuming 2 Things, given that we have 2 votes per day and a 1 player team that could lost randomly on Day 1 wouldn't be fun.
    Let's rephrase so you see why this looks weird to me:

    "Moving yourself from D1 to D2 tests isn't suspicious."

    "I mean, it isn't suspicious if this is a 2 Thing game, which I think it is. If this is a 1 Thing game, it's very suspicious of course."

    This kinda looks like a Thing who knows and always knew there were 2 Things, and doesn't get why people are so concerned about Caerulea's list change, then suddenly realizes and edits in his new understanding. Cao's good at analysis, and knows how strong cults can be if they start with too many, I don't think he would've immediately discounted a 1-Thing game if he were a townie. I might be wrong though.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    OK, I can see what you guys are saying. There have definitely been games where suspicion just hung around on people but we didn't get a chance to test them (especially with having the person live if they're good). I don't think it's something I would do but there are reasons it could help.

    Got a few other thoughts regarding the above but I think it's best to keep them to myself, at least until Day 2.






    As for the other things that have happened since my post, Apogee answered (which is fine).

    Book Wombat, I was more looking for why you chose people randomly when there are reasons to vote for someone.

    AV's post was good, makes me feel better about her.




    Not gonna do an updated list yet since it hasn't changed too much. I'm not a fan of voting AV right now though, so it would be the top half of my list that I'm willing to vote.




    Vote Count:

    Avatar Vecna (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
    Caerulea (6): Elenna, Grek, JeenLeen, Valmark, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
    CaoimhinTheCape (2): Caerulea, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (4): Caerulea, Apogee1, The Outsider, CaoimhinTheCape
    JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, The Outsider, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape, AvatarVecna, Grek

    Not voting: PartyOfRouges, PartyOfRouges
    Walking back their statement in the face of decent arguments. I like it. It feels genuine.


    Unsure what to make of Cao. They've called out a bunch of people in little ways, and defended Caerulea in a way that makes me think they're scummy, but then Caerulea had Cao at the top of her scumlist...hrm. I'm currently leaning town, or at the very least not the person we're testing today.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: The Outsider ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hmm. Ordinarily, I'd RNG vote from the whole list to start things off. But since the vote only kills evils, I honestly feel a bit better about starting a wagon early. So I'm going to vote for the first person who received a vote: AvatarVecna.
    Post order:

    Caerulea: [awful plan]
    Apogee1: "that plan is awful"
    Elenna: "that plan is awful"
    The Outsider: [essentially RNG vote]

    This isn't necessarily proof, but it's potentially corroborating evidence.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I'm going to switch my vote to JeenLeen. I see the point you're making about AV and agree in theory, but I can't deny that it would be an excellent way for a Thing to protect another Thing. This seems like it might be a stretch, though, so I might change it later. On another note, I'll gladly vote for The Outsider as my second vote.

    Also, I like the idea of ranked lists. I'll make one after I've had a bit more time to observe, because I'm very slow when it comes to these games.
    Still no comment on anything to do with Caerulea despite everybody else getting swept up in it.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hoo boy. I am not going to do well with this game.
    I don't have any good reason for my initial lack of commentary aside from "I'm bad at analysis and have a crippling fear of getting things wrong" (no pun intended). As already noted, my arguments so far weren't great arguments, and at this point I worry that any analysis I add is just going to end up parroting someone else's analysis. That said, I'm going to attempt to make a ranked list anyway, if for no other reason than to get my thoughts out of my head. From most to least sus:

    Most sus-
    1. The Outsider. Multiple people have pointed out that self-voting is a waste for either side, and I can see their point. At this point, however, I've done enough sus actions and been quiet enough to warrant a test. I've unwittingly made myself the best option.
    2. JeenLeen. The thing I find most suspicious in any game is inconsistency, and Jeen has repeatedly ignored their own reasoning of why not to vote people in determining their votes. Keeping my vote on him.
    3. PartyOfRouges, because they've been silent. I'm starting to realize that this is how they usually roll, but as a matter of principal I have to find it sus.
    4. BookWombat: Random votes when there's reasoning to analyze is a suspicious maneuver. I did practically the same thing only with flimsy reasoning attached, and I'm now at the top of my own sus list.

    Null sus-
    5. Caerulea. People have made good arguments about their evil alignment, but I'm in agreement with JeenLeen's initial reasoning on this one: I don't think a Thing would have risked drawing attention to themselves like that, even if there were two of them. I can understand why people find their arguments fishy, and creating a new plan where they don't get tested does look a bit shady, but I can't help but feel like our attention is being diverted somehow.
    6. Apogee1.
    7. Valmark. Both of them having been making somewhat good points, but Apogee seems to have a rather limited presence in the thread and Valmark is impossible for me to read. So I'm putting them in the null category for the time being.
    8. AvatarVecna. Their math and analysis goes over my head, but it always does that. What I can understand of it seems solid, and considering they're one of the best analyzers I've seen so far I almost have to trust them. Though going forward, that makes them a prime candidate for Thing conversion.

    Least sus-
    9. Elenna.
    10. CaoiminhTheCape.
    11. Grek. All three of these people are making solid analytical progress and calling people out for their more sus actions. Bonus points to Grek for having quiet people at near the top of their list, because quiet people are always sus.
    You remember what I said in the Caerulea post about scum psychology? About how scum doesn't wanna throw scumbuddies under the bus immediately, but also doesn't wanna hard-defend them just in case they get caught out soon? And how that results in them having wishy-washy middle-of-the-road opinions on scumbuddies regardless of how strong an opinion the actual behavior has warrranted? If The Outsider is scum, this post right here is textbook proof of exactly what I'm talking about. This post basically refuses to scumread or townread Caerulea, refuses to make a call on whether they think Valmark or Apogee is more sus following their argument, puts the two quietest players in the scum slots (which is exactly what Caerulea did too), and only clears a handful of people who are doing serious analysis and not getting called out by anybody else. This is a very safe list for scum to post.

    It really doesn't help that they're being so vague on why they think scumreading Caerulea is a mistake. Others have already harped on that better than I can, though. The opening of "I'm bad at games and I'm scared to mess up" doesn't help either.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Well, I miscalculated. Badly. I don't have time for a full-on analysis or defense, but I'll do my best to try and come back to this as soon as I can.
    This is their initial reaction to seeing Caerulea and JeenLeen flip. I don't think a townie makes a post like this, especially in this game: if The Outsider knows they're town, and knows that town will now be out for their blood, there's no need to make an apologetic post like this promising analysis later. Just get your analysis done and post it, and people will see you're trustworthy once you're checked. The only reason to perform sorrow is if it's fake.


    The Outsider
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-11 at 09:04 PM.


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  6. - Top - End - #66
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    At this point I think Apogee and Book Wombat are almost certainly town, because of Caerulea proposing a voting order that would put them at the very start of the list (especially since they were near the bottom based on the player list provided in the opening post). Valmark also gets a lot of townie points for being the first to bring up that Caerulea changed the player order, which is one of the things that made me more sure that Caerulea was a Thing rather than a townie bringing up a bad plan. And of course I know I'm town, and we all know JeenLeen is town, although one of these alignments could change when night comes.

    So that leaves AV, Outsider, Caoimhin, Rouges, and Grek.

    AV is also near the top of Caerulea's list, but I'm not really giving them as much town credit for that, since they were also at the top of the original player list, and it's hard to think of a list Caerulea could have suggested which would not put AV at the top. Still gives them some townie points, though. And AV was the first one to point out that Caerulea didn't vote for the top two people on their list. Plus it's worth noting that Caerulea wouldn't have been tested if AV had switched to Outsider instead. And I like their ISOs. So AV is always suspicious for being AV, but I'm leaning town on them for now.

    Outsider still looks super suspicious - not going to repeat all the arguments that have already been said, but their D1 round 1 posts are sketchy and seem to ignore Caerulea as much as possible, they benefit the most from Caerulea's reordering of the list, they didn't vote Caerulea, and they haven't said anything of substance in this round.

    Caoimhin hasn't made many posts but the first one they did make was very detailed and analysis-heavy which I always like. OTOH they didn't vote Caerulea. Slight town lean but I'd like to hear more about what they think now.

    PartyOfRouges has said nothing. At this point I'm inclined to leave them alone on the basis that if they're the second Thing, there's a good chance they aren't going to show up to convert anyone tonight. Plus I think Outsider is more suspicious, given that Outsider has actually done suspicious things rather than just doing nothing.

    Grek has been pretty talkative, I like their ranked list idea since it creates more discussion and forces people to state their thoughts on everyone which is harder for wolves to fake, and they voted Caerulea. Feeling pretty good about them right now.

    tl;dr yup my vote is staying where it is, on TheOutsider.
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  7. - Top - End - #67
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I... I don't have a defense. At all. I have literally done everything in my power to make myself look like a Thing, and I did it unintentionally. The only upside is that I screwed this up early, instead of late in the game where it would cost us a victory. I'm voting for The Outsider, because I have absolutely no idea who the Thing actually is.

    I'm not a Thing. That's all I can say.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  8. - Top - End - #68
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I... I don't have a defense. At all. I have literally done everything in my power to make myself look like a Thing, and I did it unintentionally. The only upside is that I screwed this up early, instead of late in the game where it would cost us a victory. I'm voting for The Outsider, because I have absolutely no idea who the Thing actually is.

    I'm not a Thing. That's all I can say.
    Ok, but... do you have any thoughts on other players? Who do you think is more or less suspicious? I know you said you have no idea who the Thing is, but there's been 2.5 pages of talk and almost all of it has been discussion rather than joking/random votes, you have to have some opinions on somebody by now.

    Unless, of course, you don't have opinions because you already know everyone but you is town...
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  9. - Top - End - #69
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I... I don't have a defense. At all. I have literally done everything in my power to make myself look like a Thing, and I did it unintentionally. The only upside is that I screwed this up early, instead of late in the game where it would cost us a victory. I'm voting for The Outsider, because I have absolutely no idea who the Thing actually is.

    I'm not a Thing. That's all I can say.
    Well there's good news. If you're town, this is literally no danger to you. If we test you, and you're town, suddenly everything you've said gets viewed through the lens that you were 100% townie when they were said. So going from that assumption, tell us your thoughts on people! On everybody! And that way, if/when you flip townie, town has a headstart of looking for the next target. Being tested isn't the end of the game for you if you're innocent, so just get through your analysis at your own pace and post stuff when it's ready. We're all going to vote you anyway, so may as well make the most of our extra time.


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  10. - Top - End - #70
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    Default Re: The Thing

    First off) pretty unlikely a Cult game started with 3 Things, so we've almost certainly got just 1 left. Yay. Also, wow on actually hitting a Thing D1!

    It looks almost certain The Outsider will get with the Day's extension. But I want to note that some posts later in the Day could easily be a fellow Thing bussing Caerulea after realizing that she's almost certainly going to be tested and die. That is, I don't really trust late-day votes on Caerulea as strong evidence against the voter as a Thing.

    I do agree about the comments about Elenna, Valmark, and Apogee -- and how they argued for voting Caerulea -- as making it seem unlikely they are Things.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I... I don't have a defense. At all. I have literally done everything in my power to make myself look like a Thing, and I did it unintentionally. The only upside is that I screwed this up early, instead of late in the game where it would cost us a victory. I'm voting for The Outsider, because I have absolutely no idea who the Thing actually is.

    I'm not a Thing. That's all I can say.
    While this looks like a legit Town move at first glance, I can also see self-voting like this being a last-ditch wolf move. E.g., they hope we see them vote for themself and thus move our votes to another target.

    I do like the idea of getting a competing wagon to see some analysis, though, so I'll go with CaoimhinTheCape

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also, I'll be a bit sad if this game ends D1. A Town victory is fun, but I'd like more time to play the game, especially with a new mechanic

    - - - Updated - - -

    Some odd thoughts, sort of a Cult-based WIFOM/metagame question/thought.

    A thought hit me about (assuming The Outsider is Town and game continues) the possibility of me being converted during N1.
    If <redacted> is the last Thing, then I'm pretty sure they wouldn't convert me, since it'd be strange if I don't vote against them D2. That is, that-person-as-Thing wouldn't want to convert me because any arguments I'd make would probably either lead to them being tested OR seem to contradicting myself after a Night phase and thus lead to me being tested again--either way a Thing dies if we're the two Things.

    But me posting this adds a WIFOM element of "well, maybe <redacted> will convert him anyway." But that just seems a bad move for the Thing faction because, as stated above, either way one of us likely gets tested. (Well, unless everyone thinks <redacted> is really in the clear and doesn't bother voting him.)

    So I'm left in an odd mental position. Basically, if I get converted N1, then that would rule out one of the players as a Thing.
    Thus, the Town part of me wants to say that "if I'm tested D2 and flip wolf, you know <redacted> is Town. Conversely, if <redacted> flips wolf, you can pretty sure I'm Town since them converting me would be a bad move."
    But the player part of me wants to try to win if I get converted, so I don't want to give away stuff to the Town preemptively.

    I would say more, but I feel like saying more will hurt Town. (I don't think the above hurts the chances of the Town, so I feel okay saying it as a "let's discuss the metagame a little bit while we wait for the phase to end".)

  11. - Top - End - #71
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Still waiting on that analysis.


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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Massive analysis post and a readlist. Let's touch on a bit of that analysis:

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape
    Reading this as null. Yes, Caerulea moved herself off Day 1 of a list... only to put herself on Day 2?

    EDIT: OK, this argument makes sense. In a game with 1 Thing game the list change is a difference between auto-losing and having a shot. In a 2 Thing game the list change doesn't make as much of a difference. I'm assuming 2 Things, given that we have 2 votes per day and a 1 player team that could lost randomly on Day 1 wouldn't be fun.
    Let's rephrase so you see why this looks weird to me:

    "Moving yourself from D1 to D2 tests isn't suspicious."

    "I mean, it isn't suspicious if this is a 2 Thing game, which I think it is. If this is a 1 Thing game, it's very suspicious of course."

    This kinda looks like a Thing who knows and always knew there were 2 Things, and doesn't get why people are so concerned about Caerulea's list change, then suddenly realizes and edits in his new understanding. Cao's good at analysis, and knows how strong cults can be if they start with too many, I don't think he would've immediately discounted a 1-Thing game if he were a townie. I might be wrong though.
    I did assume we had 2 Things from the start, I doubted that we'd have a game that could be ended with one random vote and be over Day 1. By the time I joined the game it was also confirmed to be two votes a day, and a 2/11 chance to hit a thing by pure luck (let alone the analysis that we did). We don't have to risk losing townies to lynches (Hi Jeen) which I assumed would counterbalance the cult starting with 2 players as opposed to 1.



    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Caoimhin hasn't made many posts but the first one they did make was very detailed and analysis-heavy which I always like. OTOH they didn't vote Caerulea. Slight town lean but I'd like to hear more about what they think now.
    The short version is I think The Outsider is the best vote for today. Everyone did the analysis before me, but the key point is that Outsider didn't comment at all on Caerulea until he was pushed and then put her in the middle of his list.

    I don't have too much free time today/before deadline for a longer post though, so short version is all I got for now.

  13. - Top - End - #73
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    Default Re: The Thing

    The only defense I could possibly see of The Outsider right now is that in so many recent games, scumteam surrendered once they saw the writing on the wall, and this is very much that situation if TO is scum.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I mean I'm still not changing my vote. But I'm starting to second-guess myself.


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  14. - Top - End - #74
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Huh, at least one of my random votes were correct.
    I read through the posts and The Outsider does seem very suspicious.
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Extra voting has ended. I know I am late again, weekends are hard for me. Give me a second to tally.

    The Outsider (8): Elena, Apogee1, Valmark, Grek, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, BookWombat, The Outsider
    CaoimhinTheCape(1): JeenLeen

    Not voting: PartofRogues

    The Outsider realizes how guilty they look and offer themselves up peacefully to be tested. However the test comes back normal. They are a scientist.

    It is now Night 1: get some sleep and we will reconvene in 24 hours to vote who to test next.
    Last edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-12-12 at 03:57 PM.

  16. - Top - End - #76
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    Default Re: The Thing

    The Outsider, if you could give us an analisys while we know for sure that you're Town that would be great.
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  17. - Top - End - #77
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    Default Re: The Thing

    *steeples fingers*


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  18. - Top - End - #78
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    *steeples fingers*
    Google translate says that steeples are bell towers.

    I am... Confused.
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  19. - Top - End - #79
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Google translate says that steeples are bell towers.

    I am... Confused.
    Steeple in this context is a verb, an action being done using the fingers. It's also sometimes referred to as finger tents? It's this.


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  20. - Top - End - #80
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Living Players:

    AvatarVecna
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Valmark
    PartyOfRouges
    Grek
    Book Wombat
    Apogee1

    Was not a thing day 1:

    JeenLeen
    TheOutsider

    Could be an original thing:

    AvatarVecna
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Valmark
    PartyOfRouges
    Grek
    Book Wombat
    Apogee1

    And that's where I'll leave it until the thing decides who to convert

  21. - Top - End - #81
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Alright. Night chat is usually a bad idea, and I apologize, but I'm ignoring that in favor of getting out analysis before conversions. Though with how I melted under pressure I doubt team Thing would want to convert me.

    Spoiler: Analysis
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1
    Could be an original thing:

    AvatarVecna
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Valmark
    PartyOfRouges
    Grek
    Book Wombat
    Apogee1
    Of these people, Apogee1 was first on Caerulea's new testing list and Apogee, Elenna and Valmark immediately pushed back against the plan. Apogee is 100% clear as of N1 and Elenna and Valmark are 95% clear (accounting for some crazy distancing ploy). This leaves us with AV, Caoiminh, Grek, BookWombat, and PoR.
    -PoR is an informational void, so I'll disregard them for the moment.
    -Grek's first action was to briefly analyze Caerulea's plan, put forward a previously-mentioned plan of their own, and introduce the fantastic idea of ranked lists. All of their later posts were a combination of accurate player and mechanical analysis. As of this moment, I'm 90% sure Grek is not a Thing.
    From here, I'm less certain.
    -AV immediately started things off with a self-vote, which would be a bit sus if I hadn't seen them do pretty much the same thing in every game I've been in with them. They then did some mathematical analysis, which is also business as usual. After that, they started moving on to analyzing other players while continuing with more theoretical and mathematical posts. I especially appreciated the analysis on how people got moved around when Caerulea switched lists, as I think it could be telling in the future. 75% sure they're not a Thing, with the caveat that AV is both good at these types of games and hard to read.
    -BookWombat has contributed very little throughout this game. They did vote for Caerulea, but claimed it was RNG at a time where RNG voting really wasn't required. I voted in a somewhat similar manner and I was incredibly sus, for good reason. They then put out a voting proposal that was mostly unrelated to the discussion at the time, and later voted for me on the grounds that I seemed sus. While the latter sentiment was correct, it came with no analysis and was the safest thing to say at the time. The only saving grace for them was that Caerulea's new list put them near the front. Not a definite Thing, but certainly a possible candidate.
    -This leaves us with CaoiminhTheCape. On the one hand, they spent most of their posts making solid analysis and were at the top of Caerulea's scum list. On the other hand, they didn't initially vote for Caerulea and spent time defending her. They have a nearly even mix of wolfish behaviors and townish behaviors, and I don't know what to make of that. So I'm putting them at a solid 50% chance to be either scum or Town.


    And there you have it.
    Last edited by The Outsider; 2020-12-12 at 09:02 PM.
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  22. - Top - End - #82
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    Default Re: The Thing

    This likely won't matter for things (pun not intended, but enjoyed after I realized it), but I likely won't be online much Sunday. Also got a long meeting Monday morning, but should be able to start participating after that.

    In other words, don't waste a test on me D2 just because I'm quiet for the first quarter of it.

    Normally I wouldn't write something like the above, but I feel safe since I'm (at least for now) confirmed Town.

  23. - Top - End - #83
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    Default Re: The Thing

    After a tense night, everyone awakens the next morning to find a new puddle of sludge that must be from a thing, but otherwise doesn't give any clues to identify who it might be.

    Day 2 begins. The vote will end at 8PM GMT on December 15th.

  24. - Top - End - #84
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Hmm, okay. So we have one original Thing, and one Thing that was converted N1.

    For the original Thing, I was figuring at the end of D1 that there were five possible candidates: AV, Outsider, Caoimhin, Rouges, and Grek. This was based on
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    At this point I think Apogee and Book Wombat are almost certainly town, because of Caerulea proposing a voting order that would put them at the very start of the list (especially since they were near the bottom based on the player list provided in the opening post). Valmark also gets a lot of townie points for being the first to bring up that Caerulea changed the player order, which is one of the things that made me more sure that Caerulea was a Thing rather than a townie bringing up a bad plan. And of course I know I'm town, and we all know JeenLeen is town, although one of these alignments could change when night comes.
    We know now that Outsider wasn't a Thing at the start, and I'm inclined to think Rouges wasn't either, since they're MIA and therefore wouldn't have converted last night. (It's possible that they're only pretending to have ghosted, and are actually putting in conversions, but that would be kind of a crappy way to play, not to mention really boring. So I'm mostly dismissing that possibility for now.)

    Of the three remaining, AV, Caoimhin, and Grek, nothing much has really changed my mind about them. Specifically, I still think AV and Grek looked more townie D1 then Caoimhin did, especially AV, so my first vote is going on CaoimhinTheCape.

    As for the N1 conversion... idk. Unless I've been ninja'd, this is the first post of D2, so there's basically nothing to go on except thinking about "who do I think the Thing would convert based on D1", which is rather prone to WIFOM. Still, if it's the only thing I have to go on right now, might as well think about it.

    As far as I can see, there's a few possible options for "who would the Thing convert":
    • People who looked trustworthy at the end of D1: based on the logic above this and most people's lists, this includes Apogee and Book Wombat (based on Caerulea's list), JeenLeen and TheOutsider (based on passing tests), and myself, Valmark and Grek (based on generally seeming trustworthy to multiple people)
    • People who are good players and good at acting towny: AV and Valmark would be at the top of this list, IMO.
    • People who are unlikely to be tested D2: If I were a Thing, I might be tempted to convert JeenLeen or Outsider, just because people might be reluctant to spend a test on the same person twice in a row.

    And, of course, there's WIFOM involved: the Thing might want to avoid converting good players, for example, because they're the obvious target, but then maybe they would know we would think that so they'd be find with converting good players, but then... insert infinite loop here.

    Yes, this list of possible conversions covers almost everyone in the game. I'm almost tempted to use my second vote on Grek, my second-highest candidate for the original Thing, and worry about finding the conversion later. That has the advantage of making it almost certain (IMO) that we'll find the original Thing and get a second test today. But I'm significantly more suspicious of Caoimhin than of Grek, so there's a good we'll get a second test anyways, and I don't really like the idea of just ignoring the conversion.
    Thinking I'll put my second vote on Valmark for now, as they're both a good player and seemed trustworthy D1, but it'll probably move around as discussion happens.
    Last edited by Elenna; 2020-12-14 at 09:59 AM.
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  25. - Top - End - #85
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    Default Re: The Thing

    For the moment, I'm going to put my votes on CaoiminhTheCape and BookWombat, for the reasons outlined previously. I'd also keep an eye on Elenna, Valmark, and Grek, as all of them were trustworthy enough in my eyes to be possible candidates for conversion.
    I can see it from the outside.
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  26. - Top - End - #86
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Alright, we know that last night there was a single Thing who converted someone else, bringing us to 8v2. Here's all of the remaining possible days according to AV's chart:
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Spoiler: All remaining possible days
    Show

    F: 8v2
    1. 252/405 it's still 8v2, and becomes 7v3 in the night.
    2. 128/405 it's 8v1, and becomes 7v2 in the night.
    3. 25/405 it's 8v0. Town victory.


    G: 7v3
    1. 1512/3240 it's still 7v3, and becomes 6v4 in the night.
    2. 1176/3240 it's 7v2, and becomes 6v3 in the night.
    3. 483/3240 it's 7v1, and becomes 6v2 in the night.
    4. 69/3240 it's 7v0. Town victory.


    H: 6v4
    1. 3780/11340 it's still 6v4, and becomes 5v5 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 4032/11340 it's 6v3, and becomes 5v4 in the night.
    3. 2625/11340 it's 6v2, and becomes 5v3 in the night.
    4. 756/11340 it's 6v1, and becomes 5v2 in the night.
    5. 126/11340 it's 6v0. Town victory.


    I: 7v2
    1. 84/144 it's still 7v2, and becomes 6v3 in the night.
    2. 49/144 it's 7v1, and becomes 6v2 in the night.
    3. 11/144 it's 7v0. Town victory.


    J: 6v3
    1. 210/504 it's still 6v3, and becomes 5v4 in the night.
    2. 189/504 it's 6v2, and becomes 5v3 in the night.
    3. 90/504 it's 6v1, and becomes 5v2 in the night.
    4. 15/504 it's 6v0. Town victory.


    K: 5v4
    1. 140/504 it's still 5v4, and becomes 4v5 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 175/504 it's 5v3, and becomes 4v4 in the night. Thing victory.
    3. 135/504 it's 5v2, and becomes 4v3 in the night.
    4. 45/504 it's 5v1, and becomes 4v2 in the night.
    5. 9/504 it's 5v0. Town victory.


    L: 6v2
    1. 630/1176 it's still 6v2, and becomes 5v3 in the night.
    2. 432/1176 it's 6v1, and becomes 5v2 in the night.
    3. 114/1176 it's 6v0. Town victory.


    M: 5v3
    1. 420/1176 it's still 5v3, and becomes 4v4 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 450/1176 it's 5v2, and becomes 4v3 in the night.
    3. 255/1176 it's 5v1, and becomes 4v2 in the night.
    4. 51/1176 it's 5v0. Town victory.


    N: 5v2
    1. 60/126 it's still 5v2, and becomes 4v3 in the night.
    2. 50/126 it's 5v1, and becomes 4v2 in the night.
    3. 16/126 it's 5v0. Town victory.


    O: 4v3
    1. 30/105 it's still 4v3, and becomes 3v4 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 40/105 it's 4v2, and becomes 3v3 in the night. Thing victory.
    3. 28/105 it's 4v1, and becomes 3v2 in the night.
    4. 7/105 it's 4v0. Town victory.


    P: 4v2
    1. 30/75 it's still 4v2, and becomes 3v3 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 32/75 it's 4v1, and becomes 3v2 in the night.
    3. 13/75 it's 4v0. Town victory.


    Q: 3v2
    1. 6/20 it's still 3v2, and becomes 2v3 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 9/20 it's 3v1, and becomes 2v2 in the night. Thing victory.
    3. 5/20 it's 3v0. Town victory.


    R: Town has won.

    S: Thing has won.
    Furthermore, we know the naive prior probabilities of each player being a Thing:

    ~2 in 9 (1 in 8 of being an original thing, plus 7 in 72 of being a converted Scientist)
    AvatarVecna
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Valmark
    PartyOfRouges
    Grek
    Book Wombat
    Apogee1

    1 in 9 (Purely based on the chance of having been converted last night.)
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen

    BUT, I think we can do better by excluding everyone The Outsider rated as probably not Thing and (as a bit of an ad-hoc decision based on Caerula moving them in testing order) Book Wombat from consideration as a possible Original Thing, BUT giving them double chances to be converted (on the logic that Things would want to convert people the Town trusts). That changes the numbers to:

    ~11 in 20 (1 in 2 of being an original thing, plus 1 in 18 of being a converted Scientist)
    CaoimhinTheCape
    PartyOfRouges


    1 in 9 (2 in 18 chance of being a converted scientist)
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Valmark
    Grek
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat

    Subjective factors that didn't make it into the above analysis: I personally think Elenna, Valmark and especially AvatarVecna are more suspicious than The Outsider rates them as being, but still rate them as being more likely to have been Town than Thing yesterday. Also, I believe that not posting on D1 is a terrible practice and that the fact that PartyOfRouges always does this should not be regarded as evidence of trustworthiness.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-14 at 04:41 PM.

  27. - Top - End - #87
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Players
    Apogee1
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Grek
    JeenLeen
    PartyOfRouges
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    I don't feel like testing JeenLeen or The Outsider again. At least today, that feels like a mistake.

    I'm reasonably certain that Apogee1, Elenna, PartyOfRouges, and Valmark aren't the original Thing. That leaves Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape, and Grek, who I will vote for tomorrow assuming that neither of these two flips Thing.


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  28. - Top - End - #88
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    Book Wombat's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Thing

    I think it would be a good idea to vote for at least one of the previously tested today (D2) since it would be a safe for the Thing to do as seen in the current situation with no votes for them. I'm choosing JeenLeen since The Outsider seems to crack under pressure.
    I'm also going to vote on CaoimhinTheCape because I don't know who else to vote for.

    Vote count:
    CaoimhinTheCape (4): Elenna, The Outsider, Grek, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, ...
    Valmark (1): Elenna, ...
    Book Wombat (2): The Outsider, AvatarVecna, ...
    PartyOfRouges (1): Grek. ...
    JeenLeen (1): Book Wombat, ...
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2020-12-14 at 06:46 AM. Reason: Changed my mind.
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  29. - Top - End - #89
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    After a tense night, everyone awakens the next morning to find a new puddle of sludge that must be from a thing, but otherwise doesn't give any clues to identify who it might be.

    Day 2 begins. The vote will end at 8PM GMT on December 15th.
    Mechanical Question for the Narrator: is this a Narrator-confirmed fact that a new Thing was made?
    If yes, we probably know PoR is not a Thing since they appear inactive. It would be a scheme (e.g., they were late and decided to appear inactive until D2 starts), but I kinda doubt that.

    Here's my thoughts for finding the Original Thing

    As noted during the Day 1 Extension:
    - Apogee1, Elenna, and Valmark likely not an original Thing since strongly against Caerulea early on
    - AvatarVecna likely not an original Thing since so early in Caerulea's list
    - Cao wasn't put in a terrible position by Caerulea and seemed to at least halfway defend them and not vote for them.

    I reckon Caerulea's hope was that the D1 list keeps any Things from being voted, but by D2 we rely more on analysis and thus didn't continue with the list when it would cause trouble for the Things.

    So that leaves Grek, Book Wombat, PartyOfRouges, and CaoimhimTheCape as both possible and likely original Things. Book Wombat did 'randomly' vote Caerulea; could be distancing, but I'll put that as towncred. If PoR is a Thing and has ghosted, we'll win because no new converts (and possibly not get the Narrator-text we got), so I'd rather not waste a test on them during a Day Grek certainly seems Town with her analysis, but it doesn't look like anything that couldn't be a wolf posing as Town.

    Thoughts on Finding the New Thing

    My vote on Cao during Day 1 Extension, and my rambling blather about the game/metagame, was to try to dissuade Thing!Cao from converting me. I've already stated suspicion of him, so if I backtrack on that I get tested today and he probably gets in the Extension if I'm a Thing. And then the Things lose.
    I also hoped it would dissuade a non-Cao-Thing from converting me, since if Cao is tested today and flips Town, I might be likely Day 2 Extension test.
    So that worked.

    I also reckon that, in general, the Things will realize the likelihood at least one confirmed-Townie would get retested since they'd feel 'safe' to the Town, so I'm okay not voting The Outsider. And The Outsider did a good job during the Night of saying stuff to dissuade conversion.

    So where's a likely convert...
    JeenLeen and The Outsider unlikely converts.
    PartyOfRouges seems inactive, so can rule out as a convert.
    AvatarVecna is a strong player, but often gains suspicion. I can see the Things avoiding converting her for that person, but that cycles into WIFOM.
    If Cao were not a Thing D1, he probably wasn't picked for conversion due to some heat on him.

    I don't have any strong feeling on the others. Grek, Elenna, and Valmark have been relatively active and offering good analysis. Valmark maybe not as much as the others in this game, but some pointed questions--and his playstyle could continue and pose as a good 'sorta under the radar' thing.

    I don't have much thought on the others.
    So my hope for D2 is to eliminate the original Thing, and hope that yields enough analysis to get the converted Thing.


    So CaoimhimTheCape and Grek in hopes of rooting out the original Thing, and maybe nap a convert.
    Last edited by JeenLeen; 2020-12-14 at 01:43 PM. Reason: Fixed [b] to [/b]

  30. - Top - End - #90
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Interesting that most people are going for two votes on candidates for the original Thing, rather than voting for a possible conversion. I guess the difference is that most people have two candidates they're unsure about, whereas I was pretty sure Caoimhin was the original Thing.

    That being said, I hadn't considered that Caerulea might have been expecting to move away from their list D2. They did mention that they would have pushed for re-testing the first two people D2, so I guess it's possible that BookWombat could be a Thing despite being tested D2 on Caerulea's list. Still seems unnecessarily risky on Caerulea's part, but maybe Caerulea thought it was balanced out by them being moved to D2 instead of D1.

    As such, and because my Valmark vote was pretty sketchy, I'm switching my votes to CaiomhinTheCape and BookWombat. (The Caoimhin vote hasn't changed, I'm just including it here for clarity.)

    @Grek what do you think about my/JeenLeen's argument that PoR would be inactive and therefore wouldn't have converted last night?

    @JeenLeen why did you pick Grek to vote for instead of Book Wombat, when you said that Grek's analysis seemed townie? I know you gave Wombat towncred for voting Caerulea, but Grek also voted Caerulea?
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