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Thread: The Thing

  1. - Top - End - #121
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I think you got a very bad impression from my math post. Randomly guessing means town loses three times as often as they win. The default math for this cult game is heavily stacked against town by default, hence why I later say:

    The math is very much not good for town, so we need good analysis in order to win.
    I might have more to say later, but wanted to at least clarify that by "good for Town" I meant that the math you posted led to a good conclusion and helpful information being disseminated to the Town. That helpful information was that working by RNG or math alone was not a good strategy, and thus we had to rely on analysis.

    What I meant was I could see a Thing stating that the random guessing was bad, safely, since the Town would likely rely on analysis eventually. (In other words, it shouldn't hurt the Things to debunk a pro-Thing tactic that the Town likely wouldn't accept anyhow.) If you and Caerulea were the original Things, I could see you both deciding a two prong and opposite tactic proposition: one of you doing an essentially randomly-ordered list of testing (Caerulea) and one of you saying that analysis was needed (AV).
    I'm not saying that I strongly think you are one of the original Things. But just I could see that as more likely than some others, once Cao and Book Wombat are ruled out.

  2. - Top - End - #122
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I know I have been really inconsistent and late for almost every other end so far, so I just want to give fair warning, that I am on and paying attention and will be ending in ~10 mins. This is for the last 2 people who haven't voted and anyone who is planning to change their votes last minute for reasons.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Alright it is now 8 PM GMT. Voting is over. Counting will commence.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Book Wombat (6): Valmark, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, AvatarVecna, The Outsider
    CaoimhinTheCape (7): Valmark, Grek, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, AvatarVecna, The Outsider
    Apogee1 (1): Grek
    JeenLeen (1): BookWombat

    Not Voting: Apogee1 and PartyofRogues

    CaoimhinTheCape is tested first and seems pretty sure of himself, but as soon as the test is administered, he turns to liquid and cannot maintain adhesion, revealing he was a Thing. Book Wombat is tested next, as everyone watches with bated breath after the first test having been successful, but his results come back normal and he is a scientist. Everyone quickly tries to figure out who else might be a Thing to test while they can.

    You have 24 more hours to vote on a test.
    Last edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-12-15 at 02:52 PM.

  3. - Top - End - #123
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    So we got the original Thing (very likely) or the original Thing didn't realize Cao would be up for voting and converted them/hoped WIFOM would protect them (unlikely).

    Apogee1 never voted, which is a known scum move. it could be a bold WIFOM tactic to make us thing "of course he can't be a Thing if he did something so wolfy". I wouldn't put that past him 100%, as a recent game he was very bold while wolf--but he was a "kill whoever kills me" in that game so it made sense to draw heat. All in all I lean him as still Town, even though he's a good conversion candidate. That, or his bold WIFOM tactic at least has deluded me.

    I feel like Cao would like to play it safe to a degree and avoid converting AV. Again, WIFOM cycles, but I'll land on not testing her. I don't like how she misread what I wrote (the last couple posts before Day ended), but I can see it as reading poor writing I made, so nothing I really want to put a mark against. Similarly, I feel like he'd play it safe by not converting The Outsider.

    Valmark's been relatively inactive, had little heat D1, and has a slightly funny read to me, so I'll press them as a convert. But honestly it's a toss-up between Grek, Elenna, and Valmark.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Note: I might change my vote when/if I have time to re-read all of Cao's posts and see if there's better hints at who Thing!Cao would convert. Any new ISOs in light of the flips are welcome.

  4. - Top - End - #124
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I'm gonna read through all of Cao's stuff on the assumption he was original Thing now, but I do wanna mention real quick: I'm pretty sure Cao voted himself pretty early today, so scumteam was probably planning on bussing him today. Anything he's said since start of day at least has to be considered as an attempt to keep town from figuring out who he would've converted - this includes the list he provided of people he'd choose to convert.


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  5. - Top - End - #125
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    I'm about where JeenLeen is: it could be Elenna, Grek, or Valmark. I'm voting Grek for the moment, on the grounds that they introduced a lot of helpful analysis and pushed back against Caerulea's plan. I would want them on my team.
    Last edited by The Outsider; 2020-12-15 at 10:29 PM.
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  6. - Top - End - #126
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO continued
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Alright. First order of business is that I get why I'm getting votes today and until I'm cleared with a test, there's gonna be questions about what side I'm on. So as much as I hate to do it, I'll throw a vote on myself (at the bottom of this post, so I keep my two votes together).




    I don't like this analysis by Grek? We go from an original list of everyone possible as an original thing being cut down to only myself and PartyOfRogues as original Things. That leaves out the options of anyone bussing, mostly...

    BookWombat, who voted Caerulea after it was clear there was a wagon on her, because "RNG votes on Day 1 are fine."
    AvatarVecna, who could have bussed after Caerulea got a few votes and didn't have a chance to abandon ship cleanly before end of day.
    Or really anyone deciding to bus early and then not having a graceful way of getting off the wagon.






    I think going for the original Thing is actually the better play here, since we can eliminate some options right off the bat (JeenLeen and Outsider, a few people who pushed Caerulea early on) whereas we're shooting a little more in the dark with who got converted (I'd guess myself, PoR, probably Book Wombat are the only ones not likely to be converted).

    Once we get who we assume is the original thing, it might help us figure out who they picked.



    On that note, I'm not a fan of Book Wombat picking JeenLeen to test - we just cleared Jeen of being an original Thing, so conversion is the only option. If we're going to test someone for being a good conversion target, I'd rather test someone new before circling around to Jeen again.







    I'm not sure I'm ready to completely discount PartyOfRogues from being an original thing, it's possible that PoR has been busy in general, having time to post a night action but not around for the beginning of the Day (aside from myself, Valmark and Apogee haven't had a chance to post yet on Day 2 so it's not like it's that sketchy yet). I agree that PoR doesn't feel like a helpful vote yet, unless he's the last one who could possibly be an original thing.

    On that note, if we're going to discuss who is likely to be converted, I'd say we do a list like yesterday, rather than just pick the one person we would convert. I'll have my list(s) up later today.





    @Rogue_alchemist What's the rules on replacing someone who hasn't posted in thread for a few days?



    Voting CaoimhinTheCape and Book Wombat

    Book Wombat's vote easily comes off as bussing at the end of the day, while not adding any arguments to the wagon (voting because of RNG). Also don't like the Jeen Leen vote when I think it's better to focus on the original thing.

    The vote on myself is because you won't trust me until I'm cleared.




    Vote Count:

    CaoimhinTheCape (7): Elenna, The Outsider, Grek, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape
    Book Wombat (4): The Outsider, AvatarVecna, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape
    PartyOfRouges (1): Grek
    JeenLeen (1): Book Wombat
    Grek (1): JeenLeen


    Not Voting: Valmark, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1, Valmark, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1
    As of this post, Cao has seen the writing on the wall. Self-voting either gives him enough credit that people stop voting him, or it gives his scumbuddy a chance to bus him. But Cao's smart enough to know that he's got to play on the assumption that he dies for this, and that means this post (and any posts going forward) have one hope of Things winning the game: that we lynch Cao, but fail to find his convert, and the convert converts somebody in the night.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Your explanation here makes sense, but what I was reading from the earlier post...



    All you did was call each of them safe, rather than give percentages, which was what confused me.
    This post gives basically no info, and is safe for Things as a result.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    So, the way I'm reading this is that someone could post in the Thing QT and be counted as active, while not posting in thread?

    Just want to be clear - if there's the possibility of someone skating by and posting in private only, that makes a PoR test actually valuable. If PoR would die of inactivity anyway we don't have to bother.
    The bolded part reads to me like "if POR is a Thing, they could just post in Thing chat, never post in main chat, and not get autolynched. That's why we should test POR". That, and the previous posts, read like Cao is really trying to get us to consider POR a viable lynch. I'm not sure if that's him making every possible attempt to get out of the lynch himself, or if it's reverse-psychology to get us to avoid testing POR today now that Cao has flipped.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Yeah, 100% agree. My question was more for @rogue_alchemist to confirm my interpretation.
    This could be Cao realizing the lack of an autolynch would get POR caught, which means he can't get us to lynch POR instead of him. Alternatively, it could instead be Cao happy to hear that we're going to wait to lynch POR until after we see if they autolynch or not. Lotta WIFOM.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Original Thing

    1) Book Wombat - Last vote on the Caerulea wagon, reason being RNG is fine. Doesn't do much to push the wagon forward or do much more on Day 1.

    2) PartyOfRouges - literally have no info. Only evidence around is that PoR was near the bottom of Caerulea's list (convenient for Things). But I also don't like this test today.

    3) AvatarVecna - Possibility of bussing Caerulea as the fifth vote on the wagon (posting only to vote) and then putting together analysis after. I'm much more confident that the person is between Book Wombat and PartyOfRogues, but AV is my third choice I guess.
    4) Apogee1 - Did not vote Caerulea, but gets Townie points for being placed high on Caerulea's list. Off chance of galaxy brain play of Caerulea putting her buddy as a first day lynch instead of herself.

    5) Valmark - Also votes Cae early, questioning and then voting. Probably not bussing a buddy.
    6) Elenna - First to vote Caerulea, kept pressure on. Probably not bussing a buddy.
    7) Grek - Good analysis against Caerulea early in the day, early vote on Cae. Seems to really make a case against Cae so I don't think it's a bus.

    -) The Outsider - Not an original Thing
    -) JeenLeen - Not an original Thing



    Really, I'm confident that we'll get the original Thing between Book Wombat and PartyOfRogues but if we somehow don't AV and Apogee are the next two choices for me.




    Converted Thing

    This list is going to be subject to a lot of WIFOM, but giving it a shot.

    1) Apogee1 - A good conversion. Not on people's radar enough to be top of people's Day 1 list, but unlikely to be tested Day 2.
    2) Valmark - A good conversion, posted enough Day 1 and looked townie. But going back to people's Day 1 trusted list, was more often in the middle so I'm guessing Val is less likely to get tested than Elenna/Grek below.

    3) Elenna - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot.
    4) Grek - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot. Slightly lower on the list for being new, I'm guessing a Thing would rather pick someone that they've played with before.
    5) AvatarVecna - Always someone you want on your team. Consistently posting, can easily guide the town. However, I'm guessing everyone will decide AV is a good subject for a test sooner or later, so that might scare away Things.

    6) JeenLeen - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Jeen more likely to be tested. Same level as Outsider, put Jeen slightly higher just cause I've played more games with him.
    7) The Outsider - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Outsider more likely to be tested. Same level as Jeen.

    8) Book Wombat - Highly unlikely, since he would come under scrutiny today.
    9) PartyOfRouges - No posts on Day 1, don't see any reason to convert.
    I'm honestly inclined to just ignore this list of "who would cao convert" entirely. By this point, he'll have resigned himself to dying right now, and knows the following round will focus on figuring out who he would've converted. This list is an attempt to trick us in some fashion, and that means using it at all is a mistake for us. We shouldn't try and figure out who Cao would convert based on his word, we should figure it out based on our own thoughts on who makes a good conversion. That the top four for Cao's list seem to perfectly line up with the overall consensus doesn't change that particular WIFOM, either.


    And Cao shuts up after giving that list, as expected. Hmm...

    Spoiler
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    So, Caerulea, Outsider and Jeen were tested D1.

    Elenna pushed back against Caerulea's plan even if it was advantageous enough for them (it would have taken until D3 to kill the original Things) so I'd say I won't vote for her.

    AV seemed aggressive enough that she either decided to bus Caerulea because it looked like they were a lost cause or she was extremely convinced of the Thinginess (at least apparently to me).

    POR is inactive apparently (note: they've been online, so I'm guessing they either ghosted, are being silent like Grek said or haven't noticed the game start though I find that doubtful).

    Grek has pulled out some cool ideas- I don't know her enough to gauge if those are good posts or bad posts (bad meaning 'clever wolf') but I want to trust her.

    My discussion with Apogee1 made me think of them as Town, despite what it looked like. I especially liked that he pointed out how what he did regarding Caerulea's plan shouldn't have been Townie- plus, I kinda hope Caerulea wouldn't have proposed something that could lead to a lynch of a fellow Thing first thing (ahr ahr) in the Day.

    This leaves, by exclusion, Book Wombat and CaoimhinTheCape. I have no strong opinion on either of them even.

    As far as catching the new Thing goes...
    Welp, that's a good question. I haven't gotten turned (pointless to say that, I know) and as a Thing I would have targeted those that seemed to be the worst enemies to have- currently these would be AV and Grek, but it's no sure thing since that would be true only for myself.

    Imo catching the 'old' Thing should help targeting the 'new' Thing.
    Valmark has one post D2 so far, which was to vote. Theirs was the last vote cast, and they didn't have strong opinions on either of the people they voted, they just had goodish reasons not to vote anybody else. This is after Cao's list of conversion targets, and well after Cao was resigned to dying today. Valmark is usually pretty talkative, so this strikes me as kinda weird. Valmark usually pushes at least one person in a big post like this, so to see nobody really questioned about anything strikes me as kinda weird. Grek is listed at about the same level of suspicion as Cao/BW, but the latter two get voted. Valmark just going along with the flow? Hrm...

    Apogee1 never votes for anybody at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    I know I have been really inconsistent and late for almost every other end so far, so I just want to give fair warning, that I am on and paying attention and will be ending in ~10 mins. This is for the last 2 people who haven't voted and anyone who is planning to change their votes last minute for reasons.
    A little meta, and maybe wrong, but this almost reads like rogue_alchemist expects PartyOfRouges to be potentially online and voting within the next 10 minutes. I might be reading too much into it, but potentially accidentally indicates POR is more active than we think. This could also be why it was initially "5 real days - D1 48, N1 24, D2 48", but then changed to include the D2 runoff? I'm not sure...


    My current guesses at who Cao converted, from most likely to least:
    1. Valmark: One big post that says nothing about anything, including any actual reason for the votes cast beyond very vague process of elimination.
    2. Apogee1: Is pinging my scumdar harder than D1, and it doesn't help that they didn't vote.
    3. PartyOfRouges: Cao's stuff feels like it could be reverse psychology.
    4. The Outsider: Hasn't been as helpful as JeenLeen, but still less to indicate they've been converted than a number of other people.
    5. Grek: First post makes me suspicious, second post reassures me they're safe. It helps that Cao probably knew Grek was on the shortlist to check today.
    6. Elenna: First post of the day, and focused on how we need to find the other original Thing, and that she thinks that's Cao. If this is bussing before Cao was on board with being bussed, it's a stone cold move. There wouldn't have even been time for a QT conversation of "bus me immediately, just in case the rest of town jumps down my throat today".
    7. JeenLeen: I like what I've been seeing today from them overall. This feels like way too much activity and analysis and questioning to be scum.
    8. AvatarVecna: I know I didn't get converted, so not gonna bother voting myself.


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  7. - Top - End - #127
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    WhiteWizardGirl

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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'm honestly inclined to just ignore this list of "who would cao convert" entirely. By this point, he'll have resigned himself to dying right now, and knows the following round will focus on figuring out who he would've converted. This list is an attempt to trick us in some fashion, and that means using it at all is a mistake for us. We shouldn't try and figure out who Cao would convert based on his word, we should figure it out based on our own thoughts on who makes a good conversion. That the top four for Cao's list seem to perfectly line up with the overall consensus doesn't change that particular WIFOM, either.
    So, the first time I read through this I nodded along and went "Yeah, logical, it would be pretty WIFOM." But then I realized that this was AvatarVecna posting. The trickiest of tricksters in the GITP Mafia community. And she's telling me not to read something because it's a WIFOM trick. So, let's have a look at that list, shall we?
    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Converted Thing

    This list is going to be subject to a lot of WIFOM, but giving it a shot.

    1) Apogee1 - A good conversion. Not on people's radar enough to be top of people's Day 1 list, but unlikely to be tested Day 2.
    2) Valmark - A good conversion, posted enough Day 1 and looked townie. But going back to people's Day 1 trusted list, was more often in the middle so I'm guessing Val is less likely to get tested than Elenna/Grek below.

    3) Elenna - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot.
    4) Grek - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot. Slightly lower on the list for being new, I'm guessing a Thing would rather pick someone that they've played with before.
    5) AvatarVecna - Always someone you want on your team. Consistently posting, can easily guide the town. However, I'm guessing everyone will decide AV is a good subject for a test sooner or later, so that might scare away Things.

    6) JeenLeen - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Jeen more likely to be tested. Same level as Outsider, put Jeen slightly higher just cause I've played more games with him.
    7) The Outsider - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Outsider more likely to be tested. Same level as Jeen.

    8) Book Wombat - Highly unlikely, since he would come under scrutiny today.
    9) PartyOfRouges - No posts on Day 1, don't see any reason to convert.
    Let's put ourselves into the mindset where AV is a converted Thing trying to cover for Caoimhin's tells.

    The level 0 interpretation is that Caoimhin would have converted Apogee1, Valmark or Elenna, since those people were the highest on Caoimhin's list of conversion targets.

    The level 1 interpretation is that Caoimhin (having seen the writing on the wall) wanted us to think that they would have converted those people, but actually would have converted Book Wombat, The Outsider, JeenLeen - the people Caoimhin had rated as bad conversion targets. (We can exclude PoR, since rogue_alchemist had announced that inactivity death was a thing at this point.)

    The level 2 interpretation is that Caoimhin is psyching us out and actually converted one of the people in the middle of their list, hoping that we'd focus on one of the lower level interpretations. Note that this is the same level of interpretation that AV had previously applied to Caerula's posts:
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Wolf psychology suggests they'd put their scumbuddy somewhere in the middle of the list. This would be The Outsider, AvatarVecna, Apogee1, Elenna, or Grek. I know I'm clear, I'm 100% sure Apogee is clear right now, and I'm fairly certain Grek is clear too. That leaves The Outsider and Elenna fingered by this post. The edit suggests The Outsider was initially left off her list entirely, and then she changed her vote to him. That very much looks to me like scum accidentally left their scumbuddy off their suspect list and then overcorrected by voting their scumbuddy even though they're low on the suspicion list. It's not looking good for The Outsider.
    The level 3 interpretation (which AV is advocating for) is that the list has no relation to Caoimhin's actual thought processes and can be safely ignored. Which would be really convenient if AV was actually thinking the list was a level 2 ploy by Caoimhin and needed a reason to dismiss it as evidence - it has AvatarVecna right in the middle, exactly where D1!AvatarVecna would suggest that Caoimhin would put their newly converted scumbuddy in the list.

    So. While I do understand and support the Valmark vote train, I actually think AvatarVecna is the more likely conversion target.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-15 at 07:25 PM.

  8. - Top - End - #128
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Don't be silly, Grek. I'm getting converted N2, I'm not already a Thing.


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  9. - Top - End - #129
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Is it just me, or does Grek's most recent post feel like a diversionary tactic? Drawing focus to AV's post, which had generally good reasoning behind it, and using... is there a word for logic that works well if your assumption is true, but doesn't prove the assumption? Circumstantial evidence, maybe? In short, they're drawing attention to something in a way that feels misleading to me. Makes me a lot more confident about my vote for them.
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  10. - Top - End - #130
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I'm going to vote Apogee1. It's hypocrital to say this, but they've changed their pattern from last Day- but at least I know for sure I didn't do it because I got converted.

    I'd like to know why they haven't voted and then change or not change my vote accordingly.

    TheOutsider: While true that it could be a tactic, Grek's nowhere near the lynching station as far as I see it. Making a post that could draw heat on herself seems counter-productive unless she believes in it.
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  11. - Top - End - #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Is it just me, or does Grek's most recent post feel like a diversionary tactic? Drawing focus to AV's post, which had generally good reasoning behind it, and using... is there a word for logic that works well if your assumption is true, but doesn't prove the assumption? Circumstantial evidence, maybe? In short, they're drawing attention to something in a way that feels misleading to me. Makes me a lot more confident about my vote for them.
    If I was the Thing, it'd make way more sense to just pitch in another quiet vote on the Valmark bandwagon. I posted the AV vote because I actually think it's good logic.

  12. - Top - End - #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I'm going to vote Apogee1. It's hypocrital to say this, but they've changed their pattern from last Day- but at least I know for sure I didn't do it because I got converted.

    I'd like to know why they haven't voted and then change or not change my vote accordingly.

    TheOutsider: While true that it could be a tactic, Grek's nowhere near the lynching station as far as I see it. Making a post that could draw heat on herself seems counter-productive unless she believes in it.
    Oh well this is easy

    Cause I was off by 24 hours and had my semester wrapping up today so that just sucked time up.

    If you are referring to your earlier question about why I didn't vote in my two posts I made today, I could go into a whole spiel about why and how voting in the current meta here except early on d1 de facto locks in votes even if in actuality you can change, but let's just keep it at "I didn't feel like I had quite the grasp on the game d2 I would like prior to deciding who was the most likely thing and voting there"

    Though, and this is about the most WIFOM filled tact imaginable so disregard as you wish -- it would be a questionable strategy for me to come in and "soft bus" Cao on a day it was pretty clear in retrospect (as AV mentioned above) he was clearly expecting to an extent being killed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I also am skeptical of guessing who the convert is outright

    Though let's operate through the lens of Cao for a second and try to guess who it might be.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: Cao Posts
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Caerulea's suggestion

    Spoiler
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    So, from the original post, Cae suggests that we vote in a set order, saying we'll get a thing guaranteed by round 10. This math seems like it's based on one test though, since two votes gives us a thing guaranteed in the 6th round or earlier.

    I don't like the pre-decided plan since we're telegraphing what we're doing to the Things, but with two votes per round it technically works as we'd get to a correct lynch at LyLo and then could chain a couple kills to keep the game going (unless Valmark happened to be the original thing).



    Fair point about the plan, but this is when we assumed that it was one lynch per day.



    I like this post overall, even if part of the analysis is from when we thought 1 vote. Like the point about this killing discussion.



    It was obvious that she thought we'd have two votes from her first post, but the second part I could see either as genuine town or a Thing backtracking.



    Reading this as null. Yes, Caerulea moved herself off Day 1 of a list... only to put herself on Day 2?

    EDIT: OK, this argument makes sense. In a game with 1 Thing game the list change is a difference between auto-losing and having a shot. In a 2 Thing game the list change doesn't make as much of a difference. I'm assuming 2 Things, given that we have 2 votes per day and a 1 player team that could lost randomly on Day 1 wouldn't be fun.



    Cutting down the post to the main analysis part, but I like this so far. The ranked list is helpful for analysis and I like the idea of making groups and picking someone random from them, rather than a straight order. This assumes we don't get anywhere with analysis (which, ya know, is the best option) but I like the different ideas floated.

    As it relates to Caerulea's post, it's a good analysis of the idea which works OK for a two vote game but not for a one vote.



    The Outsider

    Spoiler: The Outsider
    Show



    Completely ignores discussion on Caerulea's plan.



    It's only the beginning of the day so I'm not worried about the ranked list yet, but there was other discussion going on that you didn't touch on at all.


    Jeen Leen

    Spoiler
    Show


    I disagree with the AvatarVecna reasoning from an out of game perspective. That's going on an assumption of the narrator giving out roles in a way that isn't random which (unless the game is explicitly says this) isn't exactly fair.

    I understand the defense of Caerulea (townie suggesting a flawed plan over her being a Thing) but something about the wording bothers me.

    The vote on Valmark confuses me. If I'm reading your reasoning right... Valmark's questioning is good and Townish, but anyone could do it so Valmark is a Thing?



    Self Voting is something I'll touch on below. For the second part, we do need to thread the line of not giving the Things too much info vs getting the town on board with good plans by explaining them.


    Apogee

    Spoiler
    Show


    I'd like more explanation for the votes (even if I agree with them) and what you misremembered regarding Elenna?



    AvatarVecna

    Spoiler
    Show




    I'd like more words from AV. I could guess your reasoning for the votes but won't put words in your mouth.




    Book Wombat
    Spoiler
    Show


    Even if you're not great on analysis, there should be enough here for more than a random vote, yes? Looking for a little more when you have a chance to post, even if it isn't a full analysis.





    Now that I'm caught up. In almost all cases I don't see how voting yourself is helpful to the town.

    • As anyone, we don't get as much analysis from who you're willing to vote.
    • As a townie, this is a known wasted test.
    • As a townie who is suspected and wants to prove your innocence... well, you're suspicious and people are already voting you.
    • As a Thing, this can be done to get brownie points if you're not in danger of being tested.



    As for my list:

    1. JeenLeen - Has given decent reasons not to vote the people he's voting.
    2. The Outsider - Ignores Caerulea's plan and the discussion of it. Posted a few times, so avoiding that seems suspicious.
    3. Caerulea - Made a plan under the idea of 2 votes a day (which wasn't perfect). Points for trying, but the arguments for her being a Thing are also decent.

    4. PartyOfRouges - No posts.
    5. Book Wombat - Don't love completely random votes at the moment, especially when they line up with the vote leader anyway.
    6. AvatarVecna - One post on rules clarification and another with only votes. Don't like it but AV has been quiet early games as town in the past.

    7. Apogee1 - Not as much to go on, but OK for now.
    8. Valmark - Not as sure as the people below but nothing pinged me as evil yet.

    9. Grek - Good analysis, town read so far.
    10. Elenna - Good analysis, town read so far. Has a few extra posts so gets the bottom spot.


    I separated it out into groups just to give people a little separation. I'm happy with any of the top three as a vote for now, but I think it's ideal to have at least 3 competing wagons since 2 people are tested each day.

    Could be convinced to vote for 4-6 today, depending on how it goes. Don't see myself voting for anyone I ranked 7+.




    Vote Count:

    Avatar Vecna (2): Valmark, AvatarVecna
    Caerulea (6): Elenna, Grek, JeenLeen, Valmark, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
    Valmark (1): JeenLeen
    CaoimhinTheCape (2): Caerulea, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (4): Caerulea, Apogee1, The Outsider, CaoimhinTheCape
    JeenLeen (4): Apogee1, The Outsider, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape

    Not voting: PartyOfRouges, PartyOfRouges, Grek
    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Alright. First order of business is that I get why I'm getting votes today and until I'm cleared with a test, there's gonna be questions about what side I'm on. So as much as I hate to do it, I'll throw a vote on myself (at the bottom of this post, so I keep my two votes together).




    I don't like this analysis by Grek? We go from an original list of everyone possible as an original thing being cut down to only myself and PartyOfRogues as original Things. That leaves out the options of anyone bussing, mostly...

    BookWombat, who voted Caerulea after it was clear there was a wagon on her, because "RNG votes on Day 1 are fine."
    AvatarVecna, who could have bussed after Caerulea got a few votes and didn't have a chance to abandon ship cleanly before end of day.
    Or really anyone deciding to bus early and then not having a graceful way of getting off the wagon.






    I think going for the original Thing is actually the better play here, since we can eliminate some options right off the bat (JeenLeen and Outsider, a few people who pushed Caerulea early on) whereas we're shooting a little more in the dark with who got converted (I'd guess myself, PoR, probably Book Wombat are the only ones not likely to be converted).

    Once we get who we assume is the original thing, it might help us figure out who they picked.



    On that note, I'm not a fan of Book Wombat picking JeenLeen to test - we just cleared Jeen of being an original Thing, so conversion is the only option. If we're going to test someone for being a good conversion target, I'd rather test someone new before circling around to Jeen again.







    I'm not sure I'm ready to completely discount PartyOfRogues from being an original thing, it's possible that PoR has been busy in general, having time to post a night action but not around for the beginning of the Day (aside from myself, Valmark and Apogee haven't had a chance to post yet on Day 2 so it's not like it's that sketchy yet). I agree that PoR doesn't feel like a helpful vote yet, unless he's the last one who could possibly be an original thing.

    On that note, if we're going to discuss who is likely to be converted, I'd say we do a list like yesterday, rather than just pick the one person we would convert. I'll have my list(s) up later today.





    @Rogue_alchemist What's the rules on replacing someone who hasn't posted in thread for a few days?



    Voting CaoimhinTheCape and Book Wombat

    Book Wombat's vote easily comes off as bussing at the end of the day, while not adding any arguments to the wagon (voting because of RNG). Also don't like the Jeen Leen vote when I think it's better to focus on the original thing.

    The vote on myself is because you won't trust me until I'm cleared.




    Vote Count:

    CaoimhinTheCape (7): Elenna, The Outsider, Grek, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape
    Book Wombat (4): The Outsider, AvatarVecna, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape
    PartyOfRouges (1): Grek
    JeenLeen (1): Book Wombat
    Grek (1): JeenLeen


    Not Voting: Valmark, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1, Valmark, PartyOfRouges, Apogee1


    Okay let's look at these.

    Obviously, Cao's post today is going to have some element of WIFOM to it.

    But we can probably still get something.

  13. - Top - End - #133
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Is it just me, or does Grek's most recent post feel like a diversionary tactic? Drawing focus to AV's post, which had generally good reasoning behind it, and using... is there a word for logic that works well if your assumption is true, but doesn't prove the assumption? Circumstantial evidence, maybe? In short, they're drawing attention to something in a way that feels misleading to me. Makes me a lot more confident about my vote for them.
    In general, this is the point of logical fallacies, where the argument that connects known facts to conclusions isn't entirely logical and has some baked in and unstated assumptions. Both mine and Grek's arguments are slightly Poisoning The Well.

    Grek's argument seems to be that AvatarVecna always, even as town, is pulling some kind of scheme or trick or something, and therefore because AV said "don't bother analyzing Cao's post", that's exactly what we should do. It's not 100% based in the assumption that I'm scumteam, exactly, but it's assuming that I have tricky intentions because I'm me, and I always have tricky intentions. Which isn't entirely unfair - getting judged sus when I'm trying to be helpful is just kinda what happens most games. But on the flip side, my argument was kinda doing the same thing: I point to Cao's post and say "this was made by scum, therefore it must be a lie meant to trick you", and while that's not wrong, it's possible the trick is "Cao told the 100% truth knowing we wouldn't believe him because he's scum". And if I'm being honest, it doesn't even take that weird a perspective to see somebody saying "don't analyze the dead wolf's list of who they would convert" as scumteam covering for each other. It does look more than a little scummy.

    This is the importance of the Fallacy Fallacy: "X made a fallacious argument, therefore their conclusion is wrong" is itself a fallacious argument. Just because Grek's post is made on the assumption that I'm scum, doesn't disprove their conclusion, it just means that their argument fails to prove their conclusion. Fallacies are that the argument fails to connect the facts to the conclusion, but it doesn't mean the conclusion is necessarily wrong just because there's bad arguments being made in its support. So I wanna be clear: I think it's a mistake to base our lynch on Cao's conversion post, because while we can be relatively certain it's an attempt to deceive us into testing the wrong person, there's so many different ways it could be deceptive, and it's difficult to truly know which one it is. Attempting to sus it out just leads in WIFOM circles, and Cao even lampshaded how that exact thing would happen:

    This list is going to be subject to a lot of WIFOM
    As of that post, Cao had been one of the two leading wagons all day. Cao voted himself, already resigned to being the lynch that day, then made this conversion list and disappeared. Cao made that post knowing he's getting lynched and flipping Thing; the point of posting it isn't to get people off his wagon, it's to give the best odds to his scumbuddy that they won't be the follow-up lynch. If they aren't the follow-up lynch, then town is right back to where they started. The objective goal of such a list is to trick town into 3rd-testing the wrong person.

    Spoiler: WIFOM
    Show
    Level 0: The trick is that we'll think Cao's list is being tricky when it's not. Cao converted Apogee1 or Valmark or Elenna.

    Level 1: Cao assumes Town assumes Cao is at lvl 0, and that town will test straight down Cao's list until they find the conversion. Therefore, Cao wants to convert somebody that he otherwise would've never converted - based on that list, The Outsider or Book Wombat or PartyOfRouges. However, the reason they're low on the list is that they're bad conversion choices - and what's more, it's not safe for Cao to assume that town will assume he's putting zero thought into his conversion list, and that town will likely test out higher.

    Level 2: Avoiding both the top and bottom of the list means going for the middle - Grek, AvatarVecna, or JeenLeen. IME this is the level scum tends to default to for their deceptions: your first thought is too basic, which makes the second thought the obvious thing for a non-braindead town to check, therefore wolf deception should be at least at this level usually. But also, going higher than lvl 2 is tricky, because if you eliminate the top, bottom, and middle, you're now risking that a town assuming a lower level of deception than you will stumble onto the right answer. You only go above lvl 2 if you know your opponent's tend to go above level 2.

    ...for example, if there's already a post by a townie talking about how wolves tend to go to Deception Level 2. With a post like that already in the works, a wolf will feel more comfortable going lvl 3 or up.

    Level 3 gets tricky. The goal here is to assume that town is looking at the right section, but to make them misguess.

    Lvl 3.0 is where Cao assumes town is assuming he's at lvl 0, and they vote for somebody in the top of his list. Cao guesses that town will vote Apogee1 for being the best conversion candidate (not just in Cao's eyes, but in the eyes of the town as a whole), so instead he went with the next-best (Valmark).

    Lvl 3.1 is where Cao assumes town is assuming he's at lvl 1, and they vote for somebody in the bottom of the list. Cao guesses that town will vote Book Wombat, and so instead he converts The Outsider - the person who just got checked, and will likely fly under the radar D2 while other people get checked instead. It's not a bad choice, it'll make it through D2, but with how suspicious TO was on D1 entirely accidentally, it's dangerous to risk that it won't happen again.

    Lvl 3.2 is where Cao assumes town is assuming he's at lvl 2, and they vote for somebody in the middle of his list. JeenLeen just got checked and is thus the obvious choice for a lvl 2 Cao, so town would vote JeenLeen, but Cao knows that and would've gone with Grek or AvatarVecna. This is where Grek has landed, and I think it's a mistake (at least partially cuz I know I'm clear, and I'm reasonably certain Grek is clear too). But the main reason I think it's a mistake is because town's lvl 2 is a bit shaky - JeenLeen is a good choice for lvl 2 Cao, but the point of the middle is that it's the wishy-washy part of the list - AvatarVecna and Grek are just as good conversion choices as JeenLeen, and town knows that. If Cao is assuming that town is assuming a lvl 2 Cao, then Cao won't go lvl 3.2, since that's essentially randomly guessing which middle person town is going to latch onto as suspicious.

    Lvl 4.0 is where Cao assumes town is assuming he's at lvl 0 or lvl 3.0, and he goes with the remaining option in the top (Elenna). It's unlikely that town will assume he went for Elenna instead of Valmark or Apogee, but it's still possible - this is part of trying to second-guess town's second-guessing gets rough.

    Lvl 4.1 is where Cao assumes town is assuming he's at lvl 1 or 3.1, and they vote for somebody in the bottom of the list. Cao guesses that town will vote Book Wombat, and so instead he does the unthinkable and converts PartyOfRouges. This total hail-mary would mean the narrator finally PMing POR about the game, letting them coast under the radar just one more round - just long enough for POR to convert a single player. If this were the case, and I was in Cao's shoes, I would 100% tell POR not to say anything D2, N2, or D3 publicly, and exclusively post in Thing chat. This would get POR immediately outed as a Thing come D3, sure, but it also gives town nothing to go on following the POR lynch, and since Cao doesn't even know who POR would convert, nothing he's posted would be even capable of giving it away either. The downside, of course, is that if POR is inactive on account of being too busy with other things to play Mafia, then Things lose immediately.

    Lvl 4.2 is where Cao assumes town is assuming he's at lvl 2 or 3.2, and he goes with the final middle person. This has the exact same weakness as the 3.2 strat, where it entirely depends on how well Cao thinks his list's middle matches up with the rest of town's lists' middles.

    In most games, this would continue (5.0, 5.1, 5.2, 6.0, 6.1, 6.2, etc) until we run out of people in the three sections, and then we have one more step. Here, "one more step" is:

    Lvl 5 is where Cao rolls randomly on who to convert, and then rolls randomly on how to present his list. He knows that no matter what 4D chess he tries, town could out-galaxy-brain him somehow and target the correct person through deduction and reasoning and analyzing his posts. So he builds a post that's incapable of giving them any accurate insight into his mind, something that is outwardly and obviously random and intended to stymy any analysis attempts.


    Spoiler: But wait...
    Show
    "But wait, that spoiler is all written as if he made the list first, and then chose who to convert, but the conversion list was made well into D2 after the conversion was selected, what gives?"

    The list was posted D2 but the list was made during either D1 runoff or N1. Cao had a lot of time to plan out what he'd be doing, so unless he really was rolling conversion randomly, he probably made a list something much like this one: Apogee1, Valmark, and Elenna are generally trusted and won't get checked D2, so they're good conversions; POR might turn out to be useless, so they're a bad conversion; Book Wombat is likely to get checked D2, so they're a bad conversion; JeenLeen and The Outsider might get checked on the assumption they just got checked and are obvious conversion targets, so they should be closer to the bottom of the list; finally, AvatarVecna and Grek are people nobody's entirely sure how to feel about, so they go in the middle. Cao's list ended up lining up absurdly well with the overall town consensus. So Cao's public list just makes sense as a (maybe slightly changed) version of whatever his private list was when he was deciding who to convert. This has the added bonus of making his list not look to suspicious on its own, at least not until after he flips.


    ...and that's why I think basing our analysis on the list itself is a mistake: every single bit of that WIFOM starts with:

    Town will see my list and think X, therefore I should do Y instead
    We don't know what the deception is exactly, but we know that one is definitely present, and that it's going to look something like that quote. And Cao's clearly had a good bit of time to think about this. So instead of playing his game, and basing our lynch choice on his list, I instead chose to focus on analyzing other people and seeing how they react

    Grek's thinking 3.2, focused on me specifically. Grek states she thinks that I think it's a 3.0, and that I'm trying to keep town from thinking about a 3.2, but the truth is that while I arrived at the 3.0 conclusion, I did so without bothering to reread Cao's list at all, because I think reading the list would be a mistake and derail my attempts to figure out how the conversion is. That list is an attempt to manipulate me, even if I'm not quite sure how right now, so I just didn't bother with it at all and looked at other people's posts to sus out a possible conversion.

    Additionally, I can offer a pretty good argument against me being the conversion, although it gets a bit meta.

    Spoiler
    Show
    Let's assume Grek is right, and this is the timeline:

    1)
    Quote Originally Posted by https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=24846424&postcount=126
    I'm honestly inclined to just ignore this list of "who would cao convert" entirely. By this point, he'll have resigned himself to dying right now, and knows the following round will focus on figuring out who he would've converted. This list is an attempt to trick us in some fashion, and that means using it at all is a mistake for us. We shouldn't try and figure out who Cao would convert based on his word, we should figure it out based on our own thoughts on who makes a good conversion. That the top four for Cao's list seem to perfectly line up with the overall consensus doesn't change that particular WIFOM, either.
    2) Caerulea flips Thing

    3) Cao converts AV

    4) Cao gets wagoned, Cao and AV bus Cao.

    5) Cao publicly makes that list.

    That's a more or less accurate timeline of events in Grek's theory. Let's talk about 4.55, which is a private conversation that occurs in Thing chat, and makes Cao's list look really weird for a Cao/AV teamup:

    AV: "Alright, I've got everybody talking about conversion targets. You should suggest people do whole lists rather than just one person, that might make you look townier, but a full list would be super-WIFOM."

    Cao: "Sounds good to me. Where should I put you in it."

    AV: "Ugh, bottom definitely. I already posted about how wolves tend to put scumbuddies in the middle of their list, so people will look at the middle of yours to see who's there. Put me...7th, just the top of the bottom. Book Wombat's going down anyway, and nobody would convert POR, so they're safe to the be in the bottom too."

    Cao: "Yeah, that makes sense. And that way, if they aim for the middle, they've got no chance of finding you, but even if they avoid the middle, then they've got a 1/6 chance of randomly guessing you."

    AV: "Yup."


    TL;DR if I was Cao's scumbuddy, I would've given him advice on his list that would've placed me not in the middle, specifically because I've already put that "wolves in the middle of wolf lists" thought in everybody's head.

    Spoiler: Also grek was kinda right about one thing
    Show
    ...I am always pulling a stunt.

    Quote Originally Posted by https://forums.giantitp.com/showsinglepost.php?p=24846424&postcount=126
    I'm honestly inclined to just ignore this list of "who would cao convert" entirely. By this point, he'll have resigned himself to dying right now, and knows the following round will focus on figuring out who he would've converted. This list is an attempt to trick us in some fashion, and that means using it at all is a mistake for us. We shouldn't try and figure out who Cao would convert based on his word, we should figure it out based on our own thoughts on who makes a good conversion. That the top four for Cao's list seem to perfectly line up with the overall consensus doesn't change that particular WIFOM, either.
    This is a thing I believe, but in most games I keep it to myself because I really don't wanna play the second-guessing the second-guessing the second-guessing game. But when I'm in the mood for it, I put the "wolves play at lvl 2" thought in town's head, which either forces wolves to play dumber (lvl 0 or 1), or forces them to try and rely on their 4D chess skills to see if they can pulling off a 3.X/4.X play. And most people are really bad at that kinda second-guessing the second-guessing game, and they end up tipping their hand. Tricking wolves into playing 4D chess is tricking bad wolves into trying to be good wolves. It's hilarious when it works..well, I guess we'll see.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-15 at 09:32 PM.


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  14. - Top - End - #134
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Alright so off the bat

    I'm pretty convinced Cao was in fact an original thing

    And am pretty much going to operate off that assumption for the rest of the game.

    So this leaves Book Wombat as our only mech clear.

    But, there are a few things we can take from his post today I think.

    1) The way he answers that question by Elenna feels slightly strange to make as the last two things? I don't know, maybe I'm giving someone too much or too little credit, but it just like, doesn't intuitively feel like thing/thing.

    2) I highly doubt PoR was the conversion for a slurry of reasons.

    3) I am torn on Grek. Because I think Grek in some ways fits the profile of both who Cao would convert and is a possible thing based on the play today, but notice how Cao had Grek as a top town in his d1 readslist and then shades him today. I, again, would say this is more likely than not not the interaction of two things, as Cao had all the reasons to just keep a townread there. But, I think Cao only commenting on town in his post would be strange. He's planning to die, so why not get a little distancing in? That's why I'm considering voting Grek even though like I'm really not sure. Would appreciate other's thoughts here. Maybe keeping Grek as a top town was the original plan but when Cao got piled on SOD he shifted to distance? Feels vaguely possible.

  15. - Top - End - #135
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    TheOutsider: While true that it could be a tactic, Grek's nowhere near the lynching station as far as I see it. Making a post that could draw heat on herself seems counter-productive unless she believes in it.
    This right here is precisely why I'm not OMGUS voting Grek. Wolves don't jump into the spotlight when town is grinding their axe on somebody else's neck.


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  16. - Top - End - #136
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Oh I missed Cao's conversion ranking post

    This will be a bundle of joy lets look at that

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Oh I missed Cao's conversion ranking post

    This will be a bundle of joy lets look at that
    Good luck finding the marble hidden under the nice street magician's cups.


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  18. - Top - End - #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Converted Thing

    This list is going to be subject to a lot of WIFOM, but giving it a shot.

    1) Apogee1 - A good conversion. Not on people's radar enough to be top of people's Day 1 list, but unlikely to be tested Day 2.
    2) Valmark - A good conversion, posted enough Day 1 and looked townie. But going back to people's Day 1 trusted list, was more often in the middle so I'm guessing Val is less likely to get tested than Elenna/Grek below.

    3) Elenna - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot.
    4) Grek - Trusted by town Day 1. Good posts, around a lot. Slightly lower on the list for being new, I'm guessing a Thing would rather pick someone that they've played with before.
    5) AvatarVecna - Always someone you want on your team. Consistently posting, can easily guide the town. However, I'm guessing everyone will decide AV is a good subject for a test sooner or later, so that might scare away Things.

    6) JeenLeen - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Jeen more likely to be tested. Same level as Outsider, put Jeen slightly higher just cause I've played more games with him.
    7) The Outsider - Just tested. Had a lot of scrutiny on Day 1, which would normally make them a good convert until people realize it would be a good convert which makes Outsider more likely to be tested. Same level as Jeen.

    8) Book Wombat - Highly unlikely, since he would come under scrutiny today.
    9) PartyOfRouges - No posts on Day 1, don't see any reason to convert.
    First off, yes Cao, yes indeed this is a whole bundle of WIFOM.

    8) Book Wombat is not the thing
    9) POR is like, almost definitely not the thing. Both because its a hail mary modkill wise, and second, putting a thing in the very top slot is like, strange. Idk maybe this is a bad take but I would be very surprised if POR was a thing.

    6/7 can overlap. Possible Jeen or Outsider were converted. I'm not sure how Cao admitting straight up and knowing as this post was written it would be WIFOM would change how I imagine this. The thing that strikes me most here is "put Jeen slightly higher just cause I've played more games with him." That feels vaguely like if it is one of these two, its Jeen more likely than not.

    I know I (1) am town. I suppose the bold WIFOM move of putting your partner as the most likely conversion is possible from your perspectives, but I think you should all find it somewhat unlikely?

    Grek again feels plausible... and this comes after a post where he shades Grek but instead Cao plops him lower than Elenna.

    Elenna feels under-elaborated to be a partner. I think Cao would say more about their only buddy. Just like, a wolfish impulse.

    AV also kind of falls in the zone here. I don't think AV is a thing based on how they have played today, but its worth considering maybe. I guess when you are explicitly stating a list is WIFOM, I'm kind of expecting you (Cao) to end up like, nullish middle?

    So out of this WIFOM fueled mess I've got: Valmark, Grek, Jeen as the most likely shortlist

    - - - Updated - - -

    Grek

    So I don't get accused for not voting again :p

    But this definitely might switch

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    Default Re: The Thing

    You know, if absolutely nothing else, I am learning a ton from this game. I hadn't considered the angle of "a wolf isn't going to draw attention to themselves when they don't need to." Though I suppose in my head, trying to draw attention when targeted would seem more wolfish, which would naturally lead to trying to influence at less critical times... again, learning a lot. Switching my vote to the next person in the toss-up, Valmark. Although I should note that arguing against my flawed reasoning is a town-like move, despite it being a move anyone could make.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  20. - Top - End - #140
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I really hope AV is still town.




    I can see the idea of Grek being a Thing, but I'm leaning with AV and The Outsider in that she'd be taking an unnecessary risk (especially with Valmark already having a vote on him). So feeling Grek as Town for now. I am weary of Apogee (and, to a lesser degree, AV) as potential converts, but I still think Valmark seems the most likely.

    I do like that we're getting some competing votes, though, since that'll help us discern sudden changes of opinion should D3 come.

    ---

    Regarding Cao's list, one point for voting Valmark is that he's not the top pick of who Cao said Cao!Thing would convert, but neither is he low. If I were scum, I wouldn't want to put who I actually converted as the top pick (especially since Town has two tests), but I'd also be aware that putting them low makes WIFOM logic make them seem a likely choice. A 2nd choice, though... seems safe enough a place for Cao to have put Valmark.

  21. - Top - End - #141
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Okay yeah Cao was almost certainly the original Thing imo. I could maaaybe see a world where PoR was paying just enough attention to convert but not enough to put any thought into it, and randomly picked Cao? But if that's the case we'll find out when they don't auto. I can't imagine any of the other possible candidates for original Thing picking Cao when they were clearly going to get tested.

    I'm not convinced by the argument that thing!Grek wouldn't stick their neck out with that AV post. The argument seems to be that wolves don't draw attention to themselves when not in danger. But at that time, the votes were one for Valmark*, one for Grek, so it's not like Grek was in a safe position. I could see them trying to redirect town to another target, which has the bonus effect of letting them push whichever one didn't get tested as a possible mislynch D3.

    *AV says that Valmark is at the top of ther list of possible conversions, but hasn't actually voted him yet, unless I'm missing something? Not sure if this is a wolf tell or just town!AV forgetting to add the color coding.

    I think Apogee is less likely to be the conversion target. For one thing, how often do wolves deliberately not vote at all? Seems like a surefire way to draw attention, since the narration lists the people who didn't vote. Apogee could have flown under the radar better by not saying much and just voting for the same two people as almost everyone else (*cough* like Valmark did *cough*). Granted, there's some WIFOM there, and I've made this argument in past games so it's possible he could have predicted I would make this argument, I guess? But it still seems like an unlikely thing to do on purpose.
    Of course, that just means Apogee is telling the truth that they intended to vote. It doesn't mean they're town, Things can get busy and forget the schedule too. But putting your actual partner at the top of your to-convert list feels really ballsy, especially since Caoimhin knew that the chances of their side winning depended entirely on their partner surviving the next round. Personally I wouldn't have the guts to do that, for what that's worth. Not an airtight argument by any means, but I'm willing to give Apogee a pass for today.

    Valmark, as I mentioned, was among my top picks for who I would have converted. And I could see Cao especially wanting to go for a strong player, since Cao knew they would most likely be lynched. And, as others have mentioned, Valmark has been less active today. Definitely suspecting them of being the conversion.

    Honestly not sure what to think of AV. Their analysis is good but they could definitely fake that. They're kind of an obvious conversion target for being a good player, but that also makes them an obvious test target and therefore a bad conversion target, etc. In any case I haven't seen anything from AV that makes me more suspicious of them than the general baseline level of suspicion they get for being AV.

    Cao's list is a WIFOMy mess, but if you absolutely forced me to guess I'd say that he would probably remember AV's post and put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his list, but not the very top as mentioned above. So Valmark, JeenLeen, or Outsider (since I'm pretty skeptical that he would choose to convert an inactive player, and Wombat is confirmed town). I would normally also consider #3 on Cao's list, but that's me and I know I wasn't converted. But I'm very much not certain of that because, again, WIFOMy mess.

    One thing I noticed from Cao's list, though - they said JeenLeen and Outsider were more likely to be tested, but by the time they posted that list it was pretty clear, I thought, that most people were against re-testing them immediately. Could be a sign that they were looking for a reason to move JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they really were?
    Of course then the question is, did Cao want to move them down the list because one of them was the actual conversion, or because Cao wanted town to think one of them was the actual conversion? Ugh, WIFOM.

    Voting for Valmark today, for the reasons stated above (as well as being second on Caomhin's conversion list, I suppose) but I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Grek in the future.
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  22. - Top - End - #142
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    Book Wombat's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Thing

    I'll abstain since I'm lost.

    Also, if both Caerulea and CaoimhinTheCape were original Things, my first post got them both. Funny coincidence.

    Vote count:
    Valmark (3): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, ...
    AvatarVecna (1): Grek, ...
    Apogee1 (1): Valmark, ...
    Grek (1): Apogee1, ...
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2020-12-16 at 04:57 AM.
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  23. - Top - End - #143
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    Default Re: The Thing

    And here I've been holding out to see if our one 100% townie would have any words of wisdom to offer. Ah well...

    Voting Valmark, just in case I pass out before EoD.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Apogee1's Stranger Things Mafia

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  24. - Top - End - #144
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    Valmark's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Uh. I guess I should be more active starting next day to not give a false target again.

    Leaving my vote on Apogee1 for the good it'll do- I don't know what you mean by the meta in this case, but putting a vote "only to not be suspected" and then adding that you'll switch after your previous reasoning seems enough of a contradiction to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I'll abstain since I'm lost.

    Also, if both Caerulea and CaoimhinTheCape were original Things, my first post got them both. Funny coincidence.

    Vote count:
    Valmark (3): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, ...
    AvatarVecna (1): Grek, ...
    Apogee1 (1): Valmark, ...
    Grek (1): Apogee1, ...
    If within the start of the next Day you could give a thorough description of your opinions on everybody (if you've got the time) it would be great.
    I should think about doing the same too.
    I won an argument with my GM -15/08/2017- (20:32 GMT +1)

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  25. - Top - End - #145
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    WhiteWizardGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna
    And if I'm being honest, it doesn't even take that weird a perspective to see somebody saying "don't analyze the dead wolf's list of who they would convert" as scumteam covering for each other. It does look more than a little scummy.
    Basically this.

    Ultimately, what the Town is looking for in a scum tell is something that is consistent with a Wolf posting, but inconsistent with a Townie posting. After factoring in that a Wolf wants to look like a Townie and is willing to make minor sacrifices to their position in order to secure that appearance.

    Even AV agrees that telling people to not search one of Cao's posts for tells IS the sort of thing a Wolf would do. And while there's a fair argument to be made for it also being something a Townie might do, we happen to have an example of AvtarVecna arguing the opposite in a previous post in this thread. So it seems to me that while some hypothetical Generic Townies might argue against paying attention to Cao's conversion list, it doesn't seem consistent with what AvatarVecna personally would do as a Townie. At least to me. In my experience, AV likes to try for clever gambits and has a high opinion of her own ability to navigate WIFOM situations. She's not just going to throw up her hands and say "There's no way we can glean any useful information from this post, best just ignore it entirely." Not unless AV had some other motivation for wanting us to not look at that post. Hence the vote.

    I can very much see where the Valmark voters are coming from, though. And where the people who are suspicious of me are coming from - I'd probably have been thinking of converting me, if I was the Thing last night. But I also feel like having people fall in to vote for a single target without really discussing the alternatives is a mistake. At the very least, me making a case for AV (and Valmark making a case for Apogee1, if he could please go into more detail about what exactly he thinks Apogee's changed?) gives the Town more information to work off in the hypothetical case that we find out that Valmark is still a Scientist. (Obviously, if Valmark is a Thing, the game's over.)

  26. - Top - End - #146
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    (and Valmark making a case for Apogee1, if he could please go into more detail about what exactly he thinks Apogee's changed?)
    They didn't vote at all which is fine (IRL occupying time is something that happens to everybody) but then voted "to not get accused of voting again, might switch", after saying how "to the meta voting except for early D1 pretty much locks in your vote". The latter doesn't add up with the former, to me. Doesn't help that I don't even understand the latter in the first place.
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  27. - Top - End - #147
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Unrelated post: I've written a post on the main Mafia thread (https://forums.giantitp.com/showthre...-POSTS!/page9) asking about feedback on the idea for my Cult game that will probably be in January.
    I understand if folk (at least still-alive folk) want to wait to respond until this game is done, in case their answers might bleed into this game's analysis, but... well, want you to know and I'm asking to try to make a game that maximizes fun for everyone (or at least to get the most players.)

  28. - Top - End - #148
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    HalflingRogueGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    30 minutes to EoD. I have 2 people who haven't voted.

  29. - Top - End - #149
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    HalflingRogueGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Well I missed it again, but by my count:

    Valmark (4): AvatarVecna, JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna
    AvatarVecna (1): Grek
    Apogee1 (1): Valmark
    Grek (1): Apogee1

    not voting PartyofRogues, BookWombat

    Valmark is to be tested. The group corners him as he insists that Apogee1 must be the culprit; however, his test exonerates him. His results come back normal. Also the group looks around and realizes PartyofRogues hasn't been seen in a few days. After some investigation, he is found dead in his room, but apparently from before this outbreak of Things. This leaves 8 players:

    Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, Elenna, Grek, JeenLeen, The Outsider, and Valmark.

    The group finds they are very tired now and retire to their rooms to think over the unfolding of events and how best to proceed. Night 2 starts. It will end in 24 hours at 8 PM GMT on December 17

  30. - Top - End - #150
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    Also the group looks around and realizes PartyofRogues hasn't been seen in a few days. After some investigation, he is found dead in his room, but apparently from before this outbreak of Things.
    Just double-checking - this means PoR wasn't a Thing, right? Unfortunate, but about what I expected after Caoimhin flipped.
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