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Thread: The Thing

  1. - Top - End - #151
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Known
    100% Known non-Things: Book Wombat, Valmark

    Probably True
    Original Things: Cao, Caerulea
    Converted Things: ??? N1

    My Guesses on Who is the ??? N1
    Assuming Cao was not a convert. In order of decreasing likelihood: Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Grek, The Outsider
    That is, I'm pretty sure Elenna is Town based on Cao's comments and Elenna's about Cao, but not 100% sure of anyone else who hasn't been cleared. I doubt The Outsider was converted, but don't rule it out completely; e.g., the only reason I really wouldn't consider it is if gambling Cao wouldn't risk the faction losing on a possible retest. He might have for WIFOM hopes, but seems too risky.

    I have some thoughts on likely N2 conversions, but I think posting them now will only help the Things. I wish I had some scheme like voting Cao last time to keep them from converting me, but I don't.
    Also have some more comments about why I think who might be a Thing, but I don't want it to impact who the Thing converts lest I muddy up analysis, so I'll wait until Day.

    - - - Updated - - -

    EDIT: meant to bold, not underline, the KNOWN.

  2. - Top - End - #152
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    HalflingRogueGuy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Just double-checking - this means PoR wasn't a Thing, right? Unfortunate, but about what I expected after Caoimhin flipped.
    Correct, Sorry I didn't make that more clear. PoR never was around while the Things have invaded, so could not have been a Thing. He's been MIA the whole time, but chocked up to everyone just missing him for 2 days, until yall finally checked and found him.

  3. - Top - End - #153
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I tried doing those nice ISOs people do but the site apparently has a limit on quotes, so you get the lazy approach.

    Book Wombat was obviously Town both days. Same about Valmark.

    AvatarVecna was, imo, Town on both Days- for sure on D1 given how much she got on Caerulea's case and also probably in D2. She went WAY out of her way to explain that whole mess about predicting who got converted and I don't think she would've needed to do so as Town, especially since as a Thing she would try to withold as much information as possible from Town while still appearing as such.
    If she DID get converted I'll never trust a single big post from her ever again.

    The only thing I'm not sure about is why was I suspected for voting people on an elimination process- I thought it was a good reason, having two targets because everybody else has reasons to NOT be Things. But this is more telling of myself then of her, I guess.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The Outsider was, unfortunately for us, confirmed Townie on D1 (unfortunately because they weren't a Thing). Hindsight being 20/20, I can definitely see how their posts weren't from a Thing. On to D2.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    You know, if absolutely nothing else, I am learning a ton from this game. I hadn't considered the angle of "a wolf isn't going to draw attention to themselves when they don't need to." Though I suppose in my head, trying to draw attention when targeted would seem more wolfish, which would naturally lead to trying to influence at less critical times... again, learning a lot. Switching my vote to the next person in the toss-up, Valmark. Although I should note that arguing against my flawed reasoning is a town-like move, despite it being a move anyone could make.
    So, first off I'd like to say after the bout with Grek that The Outsider shouldn't be a Thing. They went out of their way to make a case against the person they were voting instead of just leaving her to reap whatever she sowed, and the same things said in Grek's defense can be said in The Outsider's defense.

    That said, TO, any particular reason for picking me over Elenna? There were already enough votes that I'd get lynched either way and you didn't give any reason besides being next (which is actually true according to the listing two posts earlier) even though you said I made a Town-like move.

    Please, don't reply before D3 where your words can and will be used against you :p

    - - - Updated - - -

    JeenLeen was a known townie on D1, not much to say there. I definitely share the sentiment on wagons not being as much of a pressure for a Townie, btw- which I thought would have been a good thing, since Town members shouldn't react as much as Things to wagons, but turns out it isn't.

    On D2 they've conducted sensible reasonings, and notably- Jeen asked rogue_alchemist about the flavor text. If they had been a Thing there would have been no reason to ask because they'd know wether they converted somebody or not- I don't think one would have thought about it in the first place.
    They also pushed to clear up misunderstandings, although that is also something a Thing would do to clear their own image.
    Last edited by Valmark; 2020-12-17 at 09:28 AM.
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  4. - Top - End - #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    The only thing I'm not sure about is why was I suspected for voting people on an elimination process- I thought it was a good reason, having two targets because everybody else has reasons to NOT be Things. But this is more telling of myself then of her, I guess.
    I voted for you because it seemed likely you or Apogee were the convert. I didn't read your rationale for voting as odd. I did read it as good cover-rationale for voting him if you were a Thing, but it's seemed legit enough as Town.

    She went WAY out of her way to explain that whole mess about predicting who got converted and I don't think she would've needed to do so as Town, especially since as a Thing she would try to withold as much information as possible from Town while still appearing as such.
    If she DID get converted I'll never trust a single big post from her ever again.
    I could see that as really good cover for Thing!AV.
    Hence my strong hope she's still been Town. She's great at mixing lies with truth to seem how she wants. Usually I find some nuggets of good advice in her words, even if she's a wolf, honestly--but it's hard to tell what is good advice she's giving since want to look Town or sneaky misinfo/misguidance to get things towards the wolves' favor. And she's admitted, even when town, sometimes she puts in sneaky stuff to look wolfish so the wolves don't recruit her since they expect she'll get voted. So some real crazy stuff.

    I appreciate her comments about sometimes forcing 4D chess since most folk are bad at it. But I can see that being tiring (and possibly making us waste a test on her, if Town, since she might look iffy doing what requires forcing it)... Anyway, I appreciate it, but don't necessarily think she's doing it in this game.

  5. - Top - End - #155
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Caerulea is a liar.
    CaoimhinTheCape seems to be a Good Thing- meaning they'll try to protect their buddy, even if Caerulea had doomed themself. My guess is that they would avoid throwing shade on their buddy to save themselves- thus AV, BW, POR and Grek are unlikely to be Things at this moment. Especially the last one. They first cast shade on Grek, then made no mention of that while Town-reading her.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Right, two of them are confirmed Town, so it's really AV and Grek who are more likely to be Town.
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  6. - Top - End - #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I tried doing those nice ISOs people do but the site apparently has a limit on quotes, so you get the lazy approach.
    Not 100% sure on this, but I think you can get around that by starting a reply with the first 10 (or whatever) quotes, going back to the page (in a separate tab), and unchecking all the "reply with quote" buttons. Then you can click "reply with quote" on 10 more comments, start a new reply in the new tab with those 10 comments, and copy-paste the second one into the first one. But that's a pain, and I'm not completely certain that the site won't object when you try to post the reply.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    The only thing I'm not sure about is why was I suspected for voting people on an elimination process- I thought it was a good reason, having two targets because everybody else has reasons to NOT be Things. But this is more telling of myself then of her, I guess.
    For me, it was less the elimination process itself, and more that it felt like you weren't putting in as much effort D2 as you were D1, which might have been because you knew who the Things were. Obviously that wasn't the case, but that's what my reasoning was.
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  7. - Top - End - #157
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I should probably point out that being suspected for the elimination process was something only AV said- I otherwise do get why people voted me and hopefully will rectify that (which is either a good thing or not depending on who gets converted).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Right, Elenna. She's gotten on Caerulea's case nearly immediately on D1 and pushed people for reasonings and analysys- she kept that for D2, and notably was among the firsts to vote Caoimhin. I believe that she would have at least tried to wait and see what happened before pushing her buddy under the bus, imo. Could be wrong- even if the posts detailing her own thoughts seem to make sense for a Town member seeking to discover the Things.

    I'd say she might be my "reserve-thing" if my main (only, probably) suspect turns out Town.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Wow, I thought Grek had more posts. Probably the size.

    So, nothing particular to mention D1 besides the fact that she has remained consistent with D2- she raised a good point about AV (although I kinda agreed with AV on it- Caoimhin has every interest in lying through it in the scope of people knowing they aren't Town, so it'll be an unreliable source of information at best).

    She kept making long analysys and also stuck her neck out on that AV post- this is, to me, something that gives Town points.

    Thinking about it I honestly don't know who'd make the best "reserve Thing" to me between Elenna and Grek- probably will be the latter because I'm biased against the player I know less (and with biased I strongly mean that it's not a trustable judgement).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Alright, Apogee1 started well in how he replied to Caerulea and to me/how he mentioned that the plan was actively bad for Thing!Apogee. This on D1.

    D2, we see how he changed patterns- and then voted to avoid getting called out on not voting.
    Not only this, but he mentions how voting pretty much locks in a vote- when the meta, like... Jeen said? Is to vote when you first post, usually. And generally switch it afterwards as new stuff come up, also analyzing voting patterns.

    It might be that I just don't get it, but it is genuinely suspicious enough to warrant testing him as a primary suspect imo.

    - - - Updated - - -

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  8. - Top - End - #158
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Did I miss N2 ending early, or are y'all just doing a ton of night-talk8ng? Granted Valmark gets a pass for wanting to get his analysis out there while he's 100% trusted but the rest of y'all shojld know better.


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  9. - Top - End - #159
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    HalflingRogueGuy

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Night 2 is ending NOW (though it is about 5 minutes early), if for no other reason than to let the talking continue. You find another slime puddle in a different location, so you know there is at least 1 Thing out in the world to catch.

    EDIT Day 3 will end at 8 PM GMT on December 19th.
    Last edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-12-17 at 02:57 PM.

  10. - Top - End - #160
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    BardGuy

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    No PM in my inbox, so I assume I'm still human.

    I have a family thing coming up -- not a bad thing, but a busy thing -- and I'll probably be without internet from Friday morning until sometime Monday or Tuesday.
    Here's hoping I don't die for ghosting. I sent RA a few more details in PM so he judge best how to fairly handle things. No hard feelings from me if I get autolynched even if I'm expected back in a day, and sorry to y'all. I guess, based on how quick the last few games went, I figured this one would be done and I didn't quite realize how soon this family thing was coming up.

    I was contemplating when to tell y'all this, but when I had time to, there was just a couple hours until Night ended. I didn't want to muddy analysis by a "if the Thing was going to convert JeenLeen, would they see this in time to convert someone else?"
    Also, I went with after Day starts, because
    1) if I'm Town still, I figured the WIFOM of "is he lying" would undo the usefulness of the "no way the wolves would convert an inactive" vs "wait--would they recruit him since he seems so undesirable now?".
    2) if I'm a Thing by Daybreak, well, kinda stinks for my faction that I likely miss a Day Phase, but me saying this helps me fly under the radar and hopefully rejoin with the protection of "no way the wolves would convert an inactive"

    But, for now, Apogee1 and AvatarVecna, as the most likely N1 convert.
    Though, for this prior night, I wouldn't be surprised if they took, well most anyone. But given no way to decipher who got taken, I'd like us to at least get eliminate one wolf this Day and hope (yet again) to nab the other on the Extension.
    If we get a Day Extension, I could definitely see retesting someone.


    I have about 3 different Notepad files where I've jotted down notes from some different time between Day's end and now. Want to reread and see what's still relevant and hope I have time to post more. But my highest suspicions on Apogee1 as who we should have voted last Extension instead of Valmark, and AV seems a good convert for the last night or a potential Thing if Apogee is innocent.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Did I miss N2 ending early, or are y'all just doing a ton of night-talk8ng? Granted Valmark gets a pass for wanting to get his analysis out there while he's 100% trusted but the rest of y'all shojld know better.
    Also, while this is could be a solid caution from a townie, something about AV noting this makes me think "wolf wanting towncred".

  11. - Top - End - #161
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I agree with that vote. Apogee1 and AvatarVecna seem like good choices, especially since AV outright predicted they would be converted last night. Also, in answer to your question, Valmark, everybody had some sort of action that made them look Town-like in my eyes. I voted you because I didn't see a point in splitting the wagon when I didn't have anything to go on.
    Last edited by The Outsider; 2020-12-19 at 12:04 AM.
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  12. - Top - End - #162
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    I leafed through my notes, and they mostly sum to
    --I can see AV as a Thing during the previous Day, using their analysis as cover.
    --my guesses on the N1 convert (with BookWombat and Valmark confirmed Town) are Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Grek, and The Outsider. The Outsider just because I could see Cao being bold and converting the already-tested, but I also doubt it since WIFOM could have easily landed on "retest" instead of "target someone new".
    --I can see most anyone as the N2 convert, but my top picks (ignoring Apogee and AV as hopefully being voted today) are (in no particular order) Elenna, Grek, or Valmark, as the most contributing. But WIFOM cycles to maybe the Thing would go to someone less likely to draw attention. I guess I'd lean Valmark a tiny bit out of those three, as we seem to not be retesting so the tested might look attractive, but that leads to the same WIFOM loop as about The Outsider N1.


    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I agree with that vote. Apogee1 and AvatarVecna seem like good choices, especially since AV outright predicted they would be converted last night. Also, in answer to your question, Valmark, everybody had some sort of action that made them look Town-like in my eyes. I voted you because I didn't see a point in splitting the wagon when I didn't have anything to go on.
    A honest townie reasoning and move, but if both of them flip Town, I would look at The Outsider as a N2 convert. This is something safe to say that a Thing could do, and seems similar enough to The Outsider's play style thus far that it's not suspicious.

    Maybe even if only AV flips town. Thing!Apogee might be feeling like a lost cause and plan on being bussed to help his buddy gain towncred.

    But I don't feel like voting them now, since how those he votes for flips will yield some info, and my argument about this looking suspicious is that it's a fine enough Town post, which is a poor reason for a vote D3.

  13. - Top - End - #163
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    2) if I'm a Thing by Daybreak, well, kinda stinks for my faction that I likely miss a Day Phase, but me saying this helps me fly under the radar and hopefully rejoin with the protection of "no way the wolves would convert an inactive"
    But by now you would have already been converted, so how are you flying under the radar with "no way the wolves would convert an inactive"? You're announcing the inaction after the potential conversion.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I agree with that vote. Apogee1 and AvatarVecna seem like good choices, especially since AV outright predicted they would be converted last night. Also, in answer to your question, Valmark, everybody had some sort of action that made them look Town-like in my eyes. I voted you because I didn't see a point in splitting the wagon when I didn't have anything to go on.
    Fair- although we disagree on the wagon thing (no point in voting on a wagon winning by a lot, that vote could be used to attract attention on somebody else).

    In fact just tagging along a formed wagon seems Thing-y. I do have somewhat better targets though.
    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    --my guesses on the N1 convert (with BookWombat and Valmark confirmed Town) are Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Grek, and The Outsider. The Outsider just because I could see Cao being bold and converting the already-tested, but I also doubt it since WIFOM could have easily landed on "retest" instead of "target someone new".
    --I can see most anyone as the N2 convert, but my top picks (ignoring Apogee and AV as hopefully being voted today) are (in no particular order) Elenna, Grek, or Valmark, as the most contributing. But WIFOM cycles to maybe the Thing would go to someone less likely to draw attention. I guess I'd lean Valmark a tiny bit out of those three, as we seem to not be retesting so the tested might look attractive, but that leads to the same WIFOM loop as about The Outsider N1.
    Imo converting re-tested people seems like the more likely bet in a vacuum (as in, if the Thing doesn't have a target they want). This because psychologically I think there is a tendency for us Scientists to trust more someone who has been tested previously even if we have no reason to- at least that's what I think I!Thing would think of when converting someone.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I forgot to vote- Apogee1 and... Grek, I guess. I have very close opinions between her and Elenna to be honest.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Valmark; 2020-12-19 at 01:18 PM.
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  14. - Top - End - #164
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Honestly, my pick for a conversion last night would have been Valmark. Town seems to be acknowledging the possibility of retesting people while implicitly shying away from it, and it feels like the kind of tricky move that's just safe enough for a Thing to go for. This game has prompted unprecedented levels of WIFOM as well, and it might catch people by surprise to stop earlier in the "This way or that way" cycle. It's not enough for me to vote right now, but it's a possibility.

    I also have to unfortunately acknowledge that said argument would also work for BookWombat, as well as JeenLeen and myself to a lesser extent. Of those four options, however, Valmark and Jeen have been the most helpful so far, and Valmark was the more recent test of the two.
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  15. - Top - End - #165
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    Yeah Iím fine-ish being voted here cause it would be foolhardy to let people endgame without being tested once.

    If we are hunting for n1 conversions I think AV is a bad choice however.

    N2? More reasonable maybe. Then again they havenít posted yet so Iíll reserve judgement.

    Iíll vote in like 10 minutes for Grek and a to be determined +1 once I get a chance to be on a PC so I donít have to struggle with color tags in mobile.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Grek and JeenLeen

    Grek should be fairly obvious why

    JeenLeen just kind of struck me as the most likely previously tested person to be converted (either night now) for vague reasons.

    - - - Updated - - -

    As part of an experiment and to explain to Valmark in part what I was going on about with early voting -- I'll give 60% odds on exactly AV and I being tested today and 90% at least one of us will.

    Which well might be defensible with the state of this game, but its not ideal in half the circumstances early wagon inertia seems to come up in.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Caerulea is a liar.
    CaoimhinTheCape seems to be a Good Thing- meaning they'll try to protect their buddy, even if Caerulea had doomed themself. My guess is that they would avoid throwing shade on their buddy to save themselves- thus AV, BW, POR and Grek are unlikely to be Things at this moment. Especially the last one. They first cast shade on Grek, then made no mention of that while Town-reading her.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Right, two of them are confirmed Town, so it's really AV and Grek who are more likely to be Town.
    I disagree strongly with this for the record.

    I assume this is based, in part, off of Cao's SOD2 wallpost.

    I think it is exceptionally strange to not mention one of his thing buddies in a post where he selfvotes. Unalign yourself and all that.

  16. - Top - End - #166
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Let's play a fun little game of pretend again.

    Spoiler: IMAGINATION
    Show
    AvatarVecna was the N1 conversion, and somehow didn't warn Cao against putting AV in the middle of his D2 list, and had to BS around Grek's accusations during the D2 runoff. Whatever, this isn't meant to be realistic, my point is more about the situation going into N2:

    Apogee1
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    JeenLeen
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    These are the seven possible conversion targets. Four of them have already been tested. At least two will be tested tomorrow. Town is only hunting for converted targets, not original things, at this point. Do I convert somebody who has a 1/9th chance of not getting immediately tested D3, or I do convert somebody already tested who is unlikely to be even considered for a D3 test at all?

    ...

    Let's change it up slightly. Let's say the N1 conversion was JeenLeen. JeenLeen is looking at these possible targets:

    Apogee1
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    Three of which have been tested, and four of which haven't. At least two will get tested D3. Town is only hunting for converted targets, not original things, at this point. Does JL turn an untested person (who has a 3/4 chance of not being immediately tested), or one of the three tested people, who's unlikely to be even considered for a D3 test at all?


    Alright that's the basic idea behind any hypotheticals here: either the N1 conversion is somebody who's already been tested, or somebody who's as of yet untested. Obvious info, but I wanna put the numbers in front of y'all so that you have a realistic expectation the Things' situation, and how they might be thinking, going forward.

    I'm inclined to start re-testing today. It's a little bit early, but that's the trick to catching the Things by surprise. Of the four people already tested, any of them could've been the N2 conversion, but only two of them could've been the N1 conversion as well. The only way Things lose today is if they somehow both get tested...and there's only four people left to test. If both Things are untested, and town is determined to test untested people, that's really bad news for Things.

    We test two people from A, B, C, and D today. That's 6 possible combinations. If we find one thing but not the other (4/6 possibilities), we then have one more test, and two more untested people. That's a 50/50 chance for each of those 4/6 possibilities. Long story short, if the N1 conversion is still untested, and they picked an N2 conversion who's also untested, those odds are:

    1) 6/12 chance today ends 6-0, Town victory.
    2) 4/12 chance today ends 6-1, to be 5-2 tomorrow.
    3) 2/12 chance today ends 6-2, to be 5-3 tomorrow.

    Those are crap odds. The N1 conversion got to pick the N2 conversion. They knew all day that it was likely Cao was going to die today and that they'd have to make the call on their own. They knew everything I've just said, that if town continues testing untested people D3, and they pick an untested person, they are flipping a coin where one side is labeled "lose instantly" and the other side is labeled "maybe win later?".

    Maybe you're sitting behind your PC, absolutely convinced that Cao converted Apogee N1 for being the most trusted townie following Cae's flip - like maybe you think that Cao thought Apogee would be among the last people tested because of that. idk how much credence to give that. But for pete's sake, don't vote two untested people today. There's just as many people tested as not, and unless the N1 conversion is a complete idiot, the N2 conversion is somebody who's already been tested.

    (I also maintain my previously-mentioned opinion that Cao knew he was going to be on the chopping block d2, and knew that Apogee looked like the best conversion, so he would've avoided converting Apogee and would've gone for somebody that wasn't predictably suspected by everybody to be the best conversion target.)

    I'm inclined to think that both conversions were already tested individuals, which makes JeenLeen and The Outsider the best people to test today IMO. That they both posted basically as soon as day started, voting for the same people no less, is not damaging my resolve. I'm not sure both of them are the two conversions (I'm maybe 70%ish sure they're not both conversions), but I'm about 90% sure that at least one of them is one of the two conversions so far.

    Additionally...

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    No PM in my inbox, so I assume I'm still human.

    I have a family thing coming up -- not a bad thing, but a busy thing -- and I'll probably be without internet from Friday morning until sometime Monday or Tuesday.
    Here's hoping I don't die for ghosting. I sent RA a few more details in PM so he judge best how to fairly handle things. No hard feelings from me if I get autolynched even if I'm expected back in a day, and sorry to y'all. I guess, based on how quick the last few games went, I figured this one would be done and I didn't quite realize how soon this family thing was coming up.

    I was contemplating when to tell y'all this, but when I had time to, there was just a couple hours until Night ended. I didn't want to muddy analysis by a "if the Thing was going to convert JeenLeen, would they see this in time to convert someone else?"
    Also, I went with after Day starts, because
    1) if I'm Town still, I figured the WIFOM of "is he lying" would undo the usefulness of the "no way the wolves would convert an inactive" vs "wait--would they recruit him since he seems so undesirable now?".
    2) if I'm a Thing by Daybreak, well, kinda stinks for my faction that I likely miss a Day Phase, but me saying this helps me fly under the radar and hopefully rejoin with the protection of "no way the wolves would convert an inactive"

    But, for now, Apogee1 and AvatarVecna, as the most likely N1 convert.
    Though, for this prior night, I wouldn't be surprised if they took, well most anyone. But given no way to decipher who got taken, I'd like us to at least get eliminate one wolf this Day and hope (yet again) to nab the other on the Extension.
    If we get a Day Extension, I could definitely see retesting someone.


    I have about 3 different Notepad files where I've jotted down notes from some different time between Day's end and now. Want to reread and see what's still relevant and hope I have time to post more. But my highest suspicions on Apogee1 as who we should have voted last Extension instead of Valmark, and AV seems a good convert for the last night or a potential Thing if Apogee is innocent.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Also, while this is could be a solid caution from a townie, something about AV noting this makes me think "wolf wanting towncred".
    It seems JeenLeen can't make up his mind about whether he's voting me for being a likely N1 or N2 conversion. Weird. The last underlined bit also seems to give the impression he thinks I got converted N1, although I've yet to hear an explanation from him (or Grek for that matter) on why they think N1-Conversion-AV let Cao put AV in the middle of Cao's list after AV warned everybody that wolves put other wolves in the middle of lists.

    - - - Updated - - -

    "Why not BookWombat or Valmark"

    It's possible it's them instead, but it's a bit weirder. I can discount them from the N1 conversion 100%, so part of it is "if I were converting a tested person, I would've had two chances to convert JL or TO, but only one chance to convert BW or Val". I'll also acknowledge that a lot of this is about the N2 conversion - I 100% believe that if the N1 conversion was somebody who still hasn't been tested, then there's no way that person would've converted another person who hasn't yet been tested, especially given that coming out of D2 there's basically no easy targets for town to go after - several people put Grek, Elenna, and AV around the same level of suspicion, so Apogee is likely to get checked D3.

    (This is also part of why I'm leaning away from Apogee - maybe Apogee1 was the N1 conversion, Cao had 7 untested options for conversion at that point and Apogee's a decent choice, but there's no way in hell that somebody converted Apogee N2.)


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  17. - Top - End - #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I've yet to hear an explanation from him (or Grek for that matter) on why they think N1-Conversion-AV let Cao put AV in the middle of Cao's list after AV warned everybody that wolves put other wolves in the middle of lists.
    I don't know why Cao would do that. I'm just saying, it looks like he did. Maybe he thought that since you warned against doing it in thread, everyone would assume he wouldn't dare? Like I've pointed out before, you don't beat WIFOM by trying to always be one level up from the other guy, you beat it by looking for behavioral differences between the Town/Scum cases that are difficult to use as a counter-signal. I would further like to note that P(AV was converted on N1) has no bearing on P(AV was converted N2|AV wasn't converted N1) - even if you weren't converted when I suspect you were, that still leaves you with the same one in seven baseline rate of having been converted N2 as everyone else. Saying that you were probably converted on Day X doesn't mean that people can't point to stuff you did on different days. If you're pretty sure someone's cult, the when of their conversion is mostly academic when it comes to deciding if you vote for them or not.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    1) 6/12 chance today ends 6-0, Town victory.
    2) 4/12 chance today ends 6-1, to be 5-2 tomorrow.
    3) 2/12 chance today ends 6-2, to be 5-3 tomorrow.

    Those are crap odds.
    ???

    These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town. We're currently at two Thing conversions from a Thing victory and will get to test four out of the eight survivors during that time, minimum. BUT, since there's two Things today (25% of the population), we have 43.75% chance of finding at least one Thing today and a 78% of finding at least one Thing using all four votes. Additional votes from finding a Thing bring us up to probable Town victory, even factoring in the fact that the Town is probably going to make choices that are better than random. Speaking of random voting, though:

    Name N1 N2
    AvatarVecna 16.67% 28.57%
    The Outsider 16.67% 28.57%
    JeenLeen 16.67% 28.57%
    Elenna 16.67% 28.57%
    Valmark 0% 14.29%
    Grek 16.67% 28.57%
    Book Wombat 0% 14.29%
    Apogee1 16.67% 28.57%
    The above assumes that Caerula and Caomhin were the original Things and that the Things chose randomly when converting people. If you suspect very strongly that a given person was not converted on N1 (say, based on an assumption that the Things aren't going to convert randomly because obviously they're not going to do that), that information can up to halve the likelihood of that person being a Thing right now; conversely if you feel certain that the Things wouldn't have converted someone LAST night, but might have converted them on N2, that can reduce their likelihood of being a Thing by around 60% - a little better than half.

    My prior reasoning with regards to AvatarVecna stands, but I'd like to highlight an additional aspect to it which I declined to bring up prior to the Things submitting their conversion vote: In the hypothetical case where AvatarVecna somehow wasn't a Thing before now, credibly making it look as if I was going to push for an AV vote today means that AV probably wasn't converted N2 - obviously the Things aren't going to want to convert somebody who has attention on them. This changes the math a bit on the table above (AV is down to only a naive 16.67% alongside Book Wombat and Valmark; everyone else is up to ~30%), but doesn't really change my list:

    1. AvatarVecna, as despite the prophylaxis of suspicion, I think he was converted N1.
    2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
    3. The Outsider, because clearly we can't tell if they're being scummy or not.
    4. JeenLeen, because I can imagine the Things trying to exploit already tested bias.
    5. Elenna, because she's been very on point about ferreting out Things so far.
    6. Grek, because while I know that I'm not a Thing, it WOULD be nice to have the Town know that too.
    7. Book Wombat, by virtue of the odds. Nearly tied with Valmark below on that basis.
    8. Valmark, by virtue of the odds, and making some good points about Apogee1.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-19 at 08:04 AM.

  18. - Top - End - #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
    Can we get a source on this

    A few places I've "argued against it quite a bit"

  19. - Top - End - #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town. We're currently at two Thing conversions from a Thing victory and will get to test four out of the eight survivors during that time, minimum. BUT, since there's two Things today (25% of the population), we have 43.75% chance of finding at least one Thing today and a 78% of finding at least one Thing using all four votes. Additional votes from finding a Thing bring us up to probable Town victory, even factoring in the fact that the Town is probably going to make choices that are better than random. Speaking of random voting, though:
    You're right, those are spectacular odds, if my assumptions are correct. Those assumptions are:

    A) The N1 conversion is somebody who, even now, has not yet been tested.

    B) Town refuses to test anybody who's already been tested.

    C) The Thing that got converted N1 doesn't think B is true.

    The argument I'm making is that the N1 conversion saw how town was generally refusing to even really consider retesting people, and so would probably figure that B is likely to be true, or at least that town will default to testing people who are as-of yet untested. My argument is that, unless the N1 conversion is a complete idiot who can't do basic math and prediction, there's no way both of the current Things are untested individuals. At most, there is one thing among Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Grek, and Elenna.

    If the N1 conversion was one of those four, they definitely got to choose the N2 conversion. And if the N1 conversion was me (for example), I'd never pick Apogee1, Grek, or Elenna. That's a death sentence. That's a 50% chance I just handed town victory on a silver platter. I wouldn't do that.

    We can test one of those people. I'm even fine with that one being me, if only so people could start actually reading my arguments and know that I've been making them in good faith. But unless you think the N1!Thing is both on that list and an idiot, then you have to understand the N2 conversion has to be among the already-tested.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-17 at 09:17 PM.


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  20. - Top - End - #170
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I disagree strongly with this for the record.

    I assume this is based, in part, off of Cao's SOD2 wallpost.

    I think it is exceptionally strange to not mention one of his thing buddies in a post where he selfvotes. Unalign yourself and all that.
    It's a bit too late for me to properly read AV's and Grek's 'heavy' posts, so I'll do that in the morning- but I wanted to quickly address this.

    I wanted to specify that I was exclusively referring to Cao's Original Thing list- namely, the fake list they were presumably using to try and convince us of someone else being a Thing (presumably because we don't actually know for sure if Cao was a Thing D1).

    I was not referring to the list about conversion which would (assuming they were an Original Thing) target their buddy and thus need a bigger kind of mislead.
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  21. - Top - End - #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Meh I didn't vote until the end of my second post yesterday either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Though, and this is about the most WIFOM filled tact imaginable so disregard as you wish -- it would be a questionable strategy for me to come in and "soft bus" Cao on a day it was pretty clear in retrospect (as AV mentioned above) he was clearly expecting to an extent being killed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    So I don't get accused for not voting again :p

    But this definitely might switch
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Yeah Iím fine-ish being voted here cause it would be foolhardy to let people endgame without being tested once.
    Maybe it's just a 'me' thing, but given the format and the fact that a negative test doesn't remove you from the game, I feel like the correct response to suspicion as a Townie is a shrug. I mean, yes, the Town voting to test you means one less test getting applied to possible Things. But we get 2+ tests per day and even a negative test provides quite a bit of value to the Town in the form of showing us that we can trust all of your arguments (up until the next conversion) to be non-WIFOM, Town-motivated truth-seeking. In a game where half the struggle is trying to figure out who is lying to cover for whom, having people who we know to have been telling the truth is one heck of a second place prize.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    You're right, those are spectacular odds, if my assumptions are correct.
    The numbers I posted are not based on these assumptions, only on the knowledge that we have two remaining Things out of eight remaining players. It allows for the possibility of repeat testing (both of people tested within the four day window and of people tested previously in the game) and is entirely agnostic to when people might have been converted.

    That said, I do find the broader point compelling and would be delighted to vote for JeenLeen or The Outsider just as soon as you've been tested and I know for sure that you're not just trying to direct our attention off of the people on your list. I mean, consider the possibility (from the bystander PoV) that you and I are the two Things - me as the N1 Thing staging an accusation against you and then converting you as a giant distancing play which also sets you up for this pro-retest argument that just so happens to exclude the both of us from consideration. Apogee1 or Elenna could plausibly be trying something similar, or the opposite could be going on with you as the N1 Thing converting one of us untested three while you do a stage magician trick to keep us from ever being tested.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-17 at 09:46 PM.

  22. - Top - End - #172
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    The numbers I posted are not based on these assumptions, only on the knowledge that we have two remaining Things out of eight remaining players. It allows for the possibility of repeat testing (both of people tested within the four day window and of people tested previously in the game) and is entirely agnostic to when people might have been converted.

    That said, I do find the broader point compelling and would be delighted to vote for JeenLeen or The Outsider just as soon as you've been tested and I know for sure that you're not just trying to direct our attention off of the people on your list. I mean, consider the possibility (from the bystander PoV) that you and I are the two Things - me as the N1 Thing staging an accusation against you and then converting you as a giant distancing play which also sets you up for this pro-retest argument that just so happens to exclude the both of us from consideration. Apogee1 or Elenna could plausibly be trying something similar, or the opposite could be going on with you as the N1 Thing converting one of us untested three while you do a stage magician trick to keep us from ever being tested.
    I'm not talking about your numbers, I'm talking about your reaction to my numbers. I say "this was the situation last night; if the Thing did this, then the thing is super-screwed today." You responded to that with:

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek
    Quote Originally Posted by AV
    1) 6/12 chance today ends 6-0, Town victory.
    2) 4/12 chance today ends 6-1, to be 5-2 tomorrow.
    3) 2/12 chance today ends 6-2, to be 5-3 tomorrow.

    Those are crap odds.
    ???

    These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town.
    This specific thing you said is what I was responding to. I don't really give a **** about the completely unrelated numbers you posted, because that's random guessing dressed up in fancy clothes. I was responding because your post gave me the impression that you had gotten the impression from my post that I think town is currently in a very good state and has a 50% chance to win, which I don't. I posted to correct that assumption. I was not making a commentary on your numbers at all.

    - - - Updated - - -

    So that I'm not just yelling about stuff, I'll also build on what you were talking about regarding odds that this person or that person might've been converted. This should help show why I've arrived at the conclusion I have.

    Spoiler: Purely random
    Show
    This table does not take the tests into account, nor any second-guessing of choices.

    14/56 14/56 14/56 14/56 14/56 14/56 14/56 14/56
    N1 Conversion N2 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
    Apogee1 AvatarVecna 1 1
    Apogee1 Book Wombat 1 1
    Apogee1 Elenna 1 1
    Apogee1 Grek 1 1
    Apogee1 JeenLeen 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark 1 1
    AvatarVecna Apogee1 1 1
    AvatarVecna Book Wombat 1 1
    AvatarVecna Elenna 1 1
    AvatarVecna Grek 1 1
    AvatarVecna JeenLeen 1 1
    AvatarVecna The Outsider 1 1
    AvatarVecna Valmark 1 1
    Book Wombat Apogee1 1 1
    Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1
    Book Wombat Elenna 1 1
    Book Wombat Grek 1 1
    Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1
    Book Wombat The Outsider 1 1
    Book Wombat Valmark 1 1
    Elenna Apogee1 1 1
    Elenna AvatarVecna 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat 1 1
    Elenna Grek 1 1
    Elenna JeenLeen 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider 1 1
    Elenna Valmark 1 1
    Grek Apogee1 1 1
    Grek AvatarVecna 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat 1 1
    Grek Elenna 1 1
    Grek JeenLeen 1 1
    Grek The Outsider 1 1
    Grek Valmark 1 1
    JeenLeen Apogee1 1 1
    JeenLeen AvatarVecna 1 1
    JeenLeen Book Wombat 1 1
    JeenLeen Elenna 1 1
    JeenLeen Grek 1 1
    JeenLeen The Outsider 1 1
    JeenLeen Valmark 1 1
    The Outsider Apogee1 1 1
    The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna 1 1
    The Outsider Grek 1 1
    The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark 1 1
    Valmark Apogee1 1 1
    Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1
    Valmark Book Wombat 1 1
    Valmark Elenna 1 1
    Valmark Grek 1 1
    Valmark JeenLeen 1 1
    Valmark The Outsider 1 1


    Spoiler: Tests Acknowledged
    Show
    Now we adjust the table to account for how neither Book Wombat nor Valmark can be the N1 conversion.

    12/42 12/42 6/42 12/42 12/42 12/42 12/42 6/42
    N1 Conversion N2 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
    Apogee1 AvatarVecna 1 1
    Apogee1 Book Wombat 1 1
    Apogee1 Elenna 1 1
    Apogee1 Grek 1 1
    Apogee1 JeenLeen 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark 1 1
    AvatarVecna Apogee1 1 1
    AvatarVecna Book Wombat 1 1
    AvatarVecna Elenna 1 1
    AvatarVecna Grek 1 1
    AvatarVecna JeenLeen 1 1
    AvatarVecna The Outsider 1 1
    AvatarVecna Valmark 1 1
    Elenna Apogee1 1 1
    Elenna AvatarVecna 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat 1 1
    Elenna Grek 1 1
    Elenna JeenLeen 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider 1 1
    Elenna Valmark 1 1
    Grek Apogee1 1 1
    Grek AvatarVecna 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat 1 1
    Grek Elenna 1 1
    Grek JeenLeen 1 1
    Grek The Outsider 1 1
    Grek Valmark 1 1
    JeenLeen Apogee1 1 1
    JeenLeen AvatarVecna 1 1
    JeenLeen Book Wombat 1 1
    JeenLeen Elenna 1 1
    JeenLeen Grek 1 1
    JeenLeen The Outsider 1 1
    JeenLeen Valmark 1 1
    The Outsider Apogee1 1 1
    The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna 1 1
    The Outsider Grek 1 1
    The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark 1 1


    Spoiler: No Double Untested
    Show
    This one accounts for my very strong belief:

    "If the N1 Conversion is Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Grek, or Elenna, they would not have converted one of the other three untested on N2."

    6/30 6/30 6/30 6/30 6/30 12/30 12/30 6/30
    N1 Conversion N2 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
    Apogee1 Book Wombat 1 1
    Apogee1 JeenLeen 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark 1 1
    AvatarVecna Book Wombat 1 1
    AvatarVecna JeenLeen 1 1
    AvatarVecna The Outsider 1 1
    AvatarVecna Valmark 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat 1 1
    Elenna JeenLeen 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider 1 1
    Elenna Valmark 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat 1 1
    Grek JeenLeen 1 1
    Grek The Outsider 1 1
    Grek Valmark 1 1
    JeenLeen Apogee1 1 1
    JeenLeen AvatarVecna 1 1
    JeenLeen Book Wombat 1 1
    JeenLeen Elenna 1 1
    JeenLeen Grek 1 1
    JeenLeen The Outsider 1 1
    JeenLeen Valmark 1 1
    The Outsider Apogee1 1 1
    The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna 1 1
    The Outsider Grek 1 1
    The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark 1 1


    Spoiler: Final Assumption for now
    Show
    This last one is the one I'm currently operating on. The basic idea here is that even if JeenLeen/TO was the N1 conversion, they wouldn't have converted Apogee1 in the night, because they'd know Apogee was likely to get dogpiled today. Everybody knew that's what was gonna happen. I'll fully admit that Apogee1 could've been the N1 conversion, but I refuse to believe that if somebody else was converted N1, they would've chosen Apogee1 for the N2 conversion. It's insane.

    4/28 6/28 6/28 6/28 6/28 11/28 11/28 6/28
    N1 Conversion N2 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
    Apogee1 Book Wombat 1 1
    Apogee1 JeenLeen 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark 1 1
    AvatarVecna Book Wombat 1 1
    AvatarVecna JeenLeen 1 1
    AvatarVecna The Outsider 1 1
    AvatarVecna Valmark 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat 1 1
    Elenna JeenLeen 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider 1 1
    Elenna Valmark 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat 1 1
    Grek JeenLeen 1 1
    Grek The Outsider 1 1
    Grek Valmark 1 1
    JeenLeen AvatarVecna 1 1
    JeenLeen Book Wombat 1 1
    JeenLeen Elenna 1 1
    JeenLeen Grek 1 1
    JeenLeen The Outsider 1 1
    JeenLeen Valmark 1 1
    The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna 1 1
    The Outsider Grek 1 1
    The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark 1 1


    Assuming random conversion isn't great. Assuming stupid conversions is worse. Voting JeenLeen and The Outsider has good odds to catch at least one conversion.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-17 at 10:53 PM.


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  23. - Top - End - #173
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Some additional thoughts:

    Spoiler: If I were N1 conversion
    Show
    Let's ignore how I would've worked hard to keep Cao from putting up that list with me in the middle and just look at who I would've converted.

    Apogee1 is right out. Awful awful choice since he was basically guaranteed to get tested D3. That's an easy way to get us both caught instantly.

    Elenna and Grek are out, unless I think I can convince town to start re-testing. On the one hand, that's exactly what I'm doing. On the other hand, if I were the conversion, I'd be fine dying today since it'd throw people for a loop trying to figure out who I'd convert based on my previous posts. If I saw the lynch was me and Apogee, I'd take the L and hope that my conversion could handle things going forward - certainly I wouldn't be posting the stuff I have, and get town thinking about odds like this, especially since they don't seem inclined to think like that anyway. Plus, if I'm somehow wrong and Apogee doesn't get tested, me and my untested conversion are extra-screwed.

    Book Wombat and Valmark are poor choices. Yeah, they just got tested, so it'll take longer for them to get tested again, and statistically speaking people wouldn't expect them to get turned, but especially now that we're getting closer to endgame I'd prefer a scumbuddy who's putting in a bit more effort. This isn't something I feel quite as strongly about as my previous assumptions, as I'm sure some people would be perfectly happy with either of them as a scumbuddy so long as they were at least a little active.

    This leads to the final two, JeenLeen and The Outsider. Between the two of them, I'd probably choose the former: JeenLeen's performance D1 and D2 is great, and I'd rather not have them against me if I can help it. TO is also getting some good analysis, but I wouldn't want to risk a second D1 where TO accidentally does everything possible to get tested. Once again, this is my general feeling about things, but it's a bit weaker than my other assumptions: I could go for either of them, I'd just lean closer to JeenLeen.


    This is part of why I'm arriving at the JL/TO conclusion, outside of just the random+assumptions stuff I did above.


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  24. - Top - End - #174
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through.
    Plus there's a fair amount of overlap in the pools of "good N1 conversions" and "good N2 conversions", I think, so maybe we'll manage to get both of them.

    Something I remembered during the Night, from the Crazier Idea game:
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    If I say I've never voted for a partner of mine before will you believe me
    Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before.
    Also IMO, Apogee was the one person I was almost certain was going to be tested today, so it seems pretty unlikely they were the N2 conversion. Doesn't mean they couldn't be the N1 conversion, and I can understand people voting for them on that account. But since I'm personally not that suspicious of Apogee, I don't want to vote for them and give up the possibility of finding the N2 conversion.

    I think we should re-test one of JeenLeen and Outsider today. For one thing, I agree with AV that the Things probably picked at least one already-tested person by this point. We could re-test BW or Valmark, I guess, but there's only one night they could have been converted versus two nights JL/Outsider could have been converted. Plus I'm skeptical that the Thing would pick BW who was almost completely checked out of the game by the end of D2 - there's obviously a possibility of WIFOM there, but it seems like too risky of a play.
    Also, like I said yesterday, I would put a slightly higher probability that Cao put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his "to convert" list, and it did seem like he was moving JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they deserved.

    Of the two of them, JeenLeen feels like they would be a more attractive conversion target. They were playing pretty well D2, and even D1 they seemed more engaged and were doing more analysis than Outsider, even if I disagreed with several of their D1 arguments.

    That leaves AV or Grek for my other vote. I want to vote for at least one of them today, instead of doing another re-test on Outsider, BW, or Valmark, both because I don't think any of those three are particularly likely to be Things and because AV and Grek have been driving a lot of the discussion, which is obviously bad if one of them is a Thing.

    Looking at it again, my argument against Grek was mostly a counterargument against the statement that "Grek wouldn't stick their neck out when they weren't in danger". That's a reason Grek isn't innocent, but it's not actually a reason Grek is a wolf. If I had a reason to be particularly suspicious of Grek, I don't remember it now.

    Honestly, I know AV is good enough at deception that I can't tell when they're a wolf, and I suspect Grek is too.

    As Grek said, it does seem weird that AV argued for everyone posting "who would I convert" lists and then claimed that we should ignore Caoimhin's list because it was too WIFOM-y. But both those posts were the same day, so it's not like AV changed their mind because of being converted.
    Hmm, I wonder if maybe Thing!Caoimhin didn't actually run that list by AV before posting it, so AV didn't have a chance to tell Caoimhin to avoid putting AV in the middle, and that's why AV changed their mind on the usefulness of conversion lists? There was only ~1.5 hours between the suggestion of "we should post a list of people to convert" and Caoimhin actually posting their list, maybe Cao decided not to take the time to discuss it?
    IDK, it's a bit of a stretch since both AV and Caoimhin were online at the time (based on their posts) and AV could just have posted in Thing chat saying "hey, put me near the end of that list". But it could fit what we see, and I don't think AV has actually explained why they changed their mind about lists yet.

    Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now. I'm picking AV instead of Grek because of the above, and because nobody has actually posted much of an argument against Grek beyond "they're a good player so they would be a good convert", which is just as true of AV.
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  25. - Top - End - #175
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through.
    Plus there's a fair amount of overlap in the pools of "good N1 conversions" and "good N2 conversions", I think, so maybe we'll manage to get both of them.

    Something I remembered during the Night, from the Crazier Idea game:

    Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before.

    Also IMO, Apogee was the one person I was almost certain was going to be tested today, so it seems pretty unlikely they were the N2 conversion. Doesn't mean they couldn't be the N1 conversion, and I can understand people voting for them on that account. But since I'm personally not that suspicious of Apogee, I don't want to vote for them and give up the possibility of finding the N2 conversion.
    This is a solid point against Apogee. And I'd also like to point out that Cao was at the top of Caerulea's list, so scum putting scum at the top of the list isn't so weird for this game. I still think it's unlikely to be Apogee, but this stuff makes an Apogee N1 conversion make a bit more sense.

    I think we should re-test one of JeenLeen and Outsider today. For one thing, I agree with AV that the Things probably picked at least one already-tested person by this point. We could re-test BW or Valmark, I guess, but there's only one night they could have been converted versus two nights JL/Outsider could have been converted. Plus I'm skeptical that the Thing would pick BW who was almost completely checked out of the game by the end of D2 - there's obviously a possibility of WIFOM there, but it seems like too risky of a play.
    Also, like I said yesterday, I would put a slightly higher probability that Cao put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his "to convert" list, and it did seem like he was moving JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they deserved.

    Of the two of them, JeenLeen feels like they would be a more attractive conversion target. They were playing pretty well D2, and even D1 they seemed more engaged and were doing more analysis than Outsider, even if I disagreed with several of their D1 arguments.
    This is more or less what I just said regarding my own thoughts on who I'd convert: BW is bad, Valmark is eh, JeenLeen is good.

    That leaves AV or Grek for my other vote. I want to vote for at least one of them today, instead of doing another re-test on Outsider, BW, or Valmark, both because I don't think any of those three are particularly likely to be Things and because AV and Grek have been driving a lot of the discussion, which is obviously bad if one of them is a Thing.

    Looking at it again, my argument against Grek was mostly a counterargument against the statement that "Grek wouldn't stick their neck out when they weren't in danger". That's a reason Grek isn't innocent, but it's not actually a reason Grek is a wolf. If I had a reason to be particularly suspicious of Grek, I don't remember it now.

    Honestly, I know AV is good enough at deception that I can't tell when they're a wolf, and I suspect Grek is too.
    Nothing to disagree or specify here. The next part has a few so let's break it up:

    As Grek said, it does seem weird that AV argued for everyone posting "who would I convert" lists and then claimed that we should ignore Caoimhin's list because it was too WIFOM-y. But both those posts were the same day, so it's not like AV changed their mind because of being converted.
    So regarding ignoring the list: the point of the lists wasn't that we could refer back to them later and see "well this person was converted, who had them high on the list", it was (as I stated publicly to JeenLeen when they asked what the point was) to see what arguments people make for converting this person or that person, and see if they make sense, or if it's a wolf trying to convince us that this person is a much more attractive conversion target than they actually are, or vice versa.

    Let's say the order of operations is something like this:
    1. AV suggests "if you were scum who would you convert" claim
    2. Cao suggests a full list rather than one claim
    3. A bunch of people give their list
    4. Cao gives his list
    5. Lots of analysis posts
    6. A bunch of people end up voting for Cao
    7. Cao self-votes and leaves


    If this was the order of events, I'd have no problem whatsoever with Cao's list being taken into consideration. If the list was made at a time when he was still pretending to be town and trying to avoid the lynch, then Cao made the list when he thought he would probably survive the lynch. In such a timeline, the list was made on the assumption that he would survive and would have to answer for his arguments. If he has to defend his thoughts, he'll give reasons for someone is here or there that can be picked apart and analyzed. If this were the timeline, he'd have to answer for that list, so he'd fake the kind of list a townie would put forth. Analyzing the lists to see if we can figure out who's just pretending to be a townie putting forth a list and who's being genuine is useful.

    ...but that's not what happened. This is:
    1. A bunch of people end up voting for Cao
    2. AV suggests "if you were scum who would you convert" claim
    3. Cao suggests a full list rather than one claim
    4. Cao self-votes
    5. A bunch of people give their list
    6. Lots of analysis posts
    7. Cao gives his list and leaves


    In this situation, Cao has already accepted that he's going to go down D2. The votes are in, too many to be dissuaded. It's easier to just accept it and make the best situation possible for his scumbuddy. That means the list is an attempt at deception. What that deception is, is impossible to say until after the game and we can see the whole field. Taking the list into account is a mistake, because it was made well after Cao became the lead wagon, and well after he accepted that he was going to die that day. We don't have enough information to figure out how the list is attempting to deceive us, so trying to puzzle it out will have at a disadvantage. We don't know the game Cao was playing with that list, so just don't play - analyze based on other people's lists, analyze based on analysis posts, but using that list is a mistake.

    Hmm, I wonder if maybe Thing!Caoimhin didn't actually run that list by AV before posting it, so AV didn't have a chance to tell Caoimhin to avoid putting AV in the middle, and that's why AV changed their mind on the usefulness of conversion lists? There was only ~1.5 hours between the suggestion of "we should post a list of people to convert" and Caoimhin actually posting their list, maybe Cao decided not to take the time to discuss it?
    IDK, it's a bit of a stretch since both AV and Caoimhin were online at the time (based on their posts) and AV could just have posted in Thing chat saying "hey, put me near the end of that list". But it could fit what we see, and I don't think AV has actually explained why they changed their mind about lists yet.
    Worst comes to worst, if I were Cao's partner that day, and online at the time (which I was, as you mention) I would've told him to just not post anything at all, give town nothing to go on. If he's gonna deceive with it, I would've advised putting me 7th instead of 5th.

    Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now. I'm picking AV instead of Grek because of the above, and because nobody has actually posted much of an argument against Grek beyond "they're a good player so they would be a good convert", which is just as true of AV.
    I can live with this vote. Time will tell if JeenLeen can.


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  26. - Top - End - #176
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Vote count:
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, ...
    AvatarVecna (3): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, ...
    Grek (2): Valmark, Apogee1, ...
    JeenLeen (3): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, ...
    The Outsider (1): AvatarVecna, ...
    Valmark (0): ...
    Elenna (0): ...
    Book Wombat (0): ...


    Pretty even, going to look through the thread again before editing in my votes.
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  27. - Top - End - #177
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    Default Re: The Thing

    @rogue_alchemist: Did you already say what happens in case of ties? I don't think it was addressed yet (I mean 3+ ties, like at this moment).
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  28. - Top - End - #178
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Book, you somehow forgot my votes. Actual Tally:

    Apogee1 (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    JeenLeen (3): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna
    Grek (2): Valmark, Apogee1
    The Outsider (1): AvatarVecna

    Not voting: Book Wombat x2

  29. - Top - End - #179
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    Default Re: The Thing

    I'm going to comment on these one at a time because AV and Grek did a number on my head.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Let's play a fun little game of pretend again.

    Spoiler: IMAGINATION
    Show
    AvatarVecna was the N1 conversion, and somehow didn't warn Cao against putting AV in the middle of his D2 list, and had to BS around Grek's accusations during the D2 runoff. Whatever, this isn't meant to be realistic, my point is more about the situation going into N2:

    Apogee1
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    JeenLeen
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    (1)These are the seven possible conversion targets. Four of them have already been tested. At least two will be tested tomorrow. Town is only hunting for converted targets, not original things, at this point. Do I convert somebody who has a 1/9th chance of not getting immediately tested D3, or I do convert somebody already tested who is unlikely to be even considered for a D3 test at all?

    ...

    Let's change it up slightly. Let's say the N1 conversion was JeenLeen. JeenLeen is looking at these possible targets:

    Apogee1
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    (2)Three of which have been tested, and four of which haven't. At least two will get tested D3. Town is only hunting for converted targets, not original things, at this point. Does JL turn an untested person (who has a 3/4 chance of not being immediately tested), or one of the three tested people, who's unlikely to be even considered for a D3 test at all?


    Alright that's the basic idea behind any hypotheticals here: either the N1 conversion is somebody who's already been tested, or somebody who's as of yet untested. Obvious info, but I wanna put the numbers in front of y'all so that you have a realistic expectation the Things' situation, and how they might be thinking, going forward.

    I'm inclined to start re-testing today. It's a little bit early, but that's the trick to catching the Things by surprise. Of the four people already tested, any of them could've been the N2 conversion, but only two of them could've been the N1 conversion as well. The only way Things lose today is if they somehow both get tested...and there's only four people left to test. If both Things are untested, and town is determined to test untested people, that's really bad news for Things.

    (3)We test two people from A, B, C, and D today. That's 6 possible combinations. If we find one thing but not the other (4/6 possibilities), we then have one more test, and two more untested people. That's a 50/50 chance for each of those 4/6 possibilities. Long story short, if the N1 conversion is still untested, and they picked an N2 conversion who's also untested, those odds are:

    1) 6/12 chance today ends 6-0, Town victory.
    2) 4/12 chance today ends 6-1, to be 5-2 tomorrow.
    3) 2/12 chance today ends 6-2, to be 5-3 tomorrow.

    Those are crap odds. The N1 conversion got to pick the N2 conversion. They knew all day that it was likely Cao was going to die today and that they'd have to make the call on their own. They knew everything I've just said, that if town continues testing untested people D3, and they pick an untested person, they are flipping a coin where one side is labeled "lose instantly" and the other side is labeled "maybe win later?".

    Maybe you're sitting behind your PC, absolutely convinced that Cao converted Apogee N1 for being the most trusted townie following Cae's flip - like maybe you think that Cao thought Apogee would be among the last people tested because of that. idk how much credence to give that. But for pete's sake, don't vote two untested people today. There's just as many people tested as not, and unless the N1 conversion is a complete idiot, the N2 conversion is somebody who's already been tested.

    (I also maintain my previously-mentioned opinion that Cao knew he was going to be on the chopping block d2, and knew that Apogee looked like the best conversion, so he would've avoided converting Apogee and would've gone for somebody that wasn't predictably suspected by everybody to be the best conversion target.)

    I'm inclined to think that both conversions were already tested individuals, which makes JeenLeen and The Outsider the best people to test today IMO. That they both posted basically as soon as day started, voting for the same people no less, is not damaging my resolve. I'm not sure both of them are the two conversions (I'm maybe 70%ish sure they're not both conversions), but I'm about 90% sure that at least one of them is one of the two conversions so far.

    Additionally...



    (4) It seems JeenLeen can't make up his mind about whether he's voting me for being a likely N1 or N2 conversion. Weird. The last underlined bit also seems to give the impression he thinks I got converted N1, although I've yet to hear an explanation from him (or Grek for that matter) on why they think N1-Conversion-AV let Cao put AV in the middle of Cao's list after AV warned everybody that wolves put other wolves in the middle of lists.

    - - - Updated - - -

    "Why not BookWombat or Valmark"

    It's possible it's them instead, but it's a bit weirder. I can discount them from the N1 conversion 100%, so part of it is "if I were converting a tested person, I would've had two chances to convert JL or TO, but only one chance to convert BW or Val". I'll also acknowledge that a lot of this is about the N2 conversion - I 100% believe that if the N1 conversion was somebody who still hasn't been tested, then there's no way that person would've converted another person who hasn't yet been tested, especially given that coming out of D2 there's basically no easy targets for town to go after - several people put Grek, Elenna, and AV around the same level of suspicion, so Apogee is likely to get checked D3.

    (This is also part of why I'm leaning away from Apogee - maybe Apogee1 was the N1 conversion, Cao had 7 untested options for conversion at that point and Apogee's a decent choice, but there's no way in hell that somebody converted Apogee N2.)
    I added numbers in bold to rapresent what I'm replying to.

    (1) I'm lost, where does the 1/9 chance come from if...

    (2) ...with 4 untested people the chance of not getting tested is 3/4, why with 3 untested people it's 1/9? Shouldn't it be 2/3?

    (3) Shouldn't case one and two be the same? Meaning if we have 6/12 chances of winning today (if the Things are both untested and we go after the untested) and the chance of getting the second Thing is 50% then shouldn't the chance of ending up 6-1 be 6/12 too?

    I agree that those are crap odds for the Things, and while I think this is as WIFOM as it gets (the Things know this and know Town would know so they could have done it anyway) you've also raised a pretty good point about (4) Jeen's incosistency. I'll try to see if Jeen comes back online to reply to it (also I have a lot of posts to get through meanwhile).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    I don't know why Cao would do that. I'm just saying, it looks like he did. Maybe he thought that since you warned against doing it in thread, everyone would assume he wouldn't dare? Like I've pointed out before, you don't beat WIFOM by trying to always be one level up from the other guy, you beat it by looking for behavioral differences between the Town/Scum cases that are difficult to use as a counter-signal. I would further like to note that P(AV was converted on N1) has no bearing on P(AV was converted N2|AV wasn't converted N1) - even if you weren't converted when I suspect you were, that still leaves you with the same one in seven baseline rate of having been converted N2 as everyone else. Saying that you were probably converted on Day X doesn't mean that people can't point to stuff you did on different days. If you're pretty sure someone's cult, the when of their conversion is mostly academic when it comes to deciding if you vote for them or not.

    (1)???

    These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town. We're currently at two Thing conversions from a Thing victory and will get to test four out of the eight survivors during that time, minimum. (2) BUT, since there's two Things today (25% of the population), we have 43.75% chance of finding at least one Thing today and a 78% of finding at least one Thing using all four votes. Additional votes from finding a Thing bring us up to probable Town victory, even factoring in the fact that the Town is probably going to make choices that are better than random. Speaking of random voting, though:

    Name N1 N2
    AvatarVecna 16.67% 28.57%
    The Outsider 16.67% 28.57%
    JeenLeen 16.67% 28.57%
    Elenna 16.67% 28.57%
    Valmark 0% 14.29%
    Grek 16.67% 28.57%
    Book Wombat 0% 14.29%
    Apogee1 16.67% 28.57%
    The above assumes that Caerula and Caomhin were the original Things and that the Things chose randomly when converting people. If you suspect very strongly that a given person was not converted on N1 (say, based on an assumption that the Things aren't going to convert randomly because obviously they're not going to do that), that information can up to halve the likelihood of that person being a Thing right now; conversely if you feel certain that the Things wouldn't have converted someone LAST night, but might have converted them on N2, that can reduce their likelihood of being a Thing by around 60% - a little better than half.

    My prior reasoning with regards to AvatarVecna stands, but I'd like to highlight an additional aspect to it which I declined to bring up prior to the Things submitting their conversion vote: In the hypothetical case where AvatarVecna somehow wasn't a Thing before now, credibly making it look as if I was going to push for an AV vote today means that AV probably wasn't converted N2 - obviously the Things aren't going to want to convert somebody who has attention on them. This changes the math a bit on the table above (AV is down to only a naive 16.67% alongside Book Wombat and Valmark; everyone else is up to ~30%), but doesn't really change my list:

    1. AvatarVecna, as despite the prophylaxis of suspicion, I think he was converted N1.
    2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
    3. The Outsider, because clearly we can't tell if they're being scummy or not.
    4. JeenLeen, because I can imagine the Things trying to exploit already tested bias.
    5. Elenna, because she's been very on point about ferreting out Things so far.
    6. Grek, because while I know that I'm not a Thing, it WOULD be nice to have the Town know that too.
    7. Book Wombat, by virtue of the odds. Nearly tied with Valmark below on that basis.
    8. Valmark, by virtue of the odds, and making some good points about Apogee1.
    (1) Like I think AV pointed out afterwards, these are incredible Town odds- meaning orrible Thing odds. We have to predict what the Things do, so ideally they wouldn't do that (unless, again, they thought we'd think this, and WIFOM).

    (2) Shouldn't the theorical random odds be lower? The majority of the population today and tomorrow will obviously be Scientists so how do we have such an high chance of catching a thing if our votes are far less then the possibilities? Testing 4 different people out of 8 shouldn't give us more then 50% odds to catch the minority, should it?
    (I'm actually bad when it comes to more convoluted probability calculation so it's entirely plausible that what I'm saying is stupid).

    Also we aren't assured of testing 4 out of 8 people, since the 2 we test (assuming we don't catch a Thing) from today's pool get added back for the next 2 tests.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Alright I thought there would be much more to reply to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Maybe it's just a 'me' thing, but given the format and the fact that a negative test doesn't remove you from the game, I feel like the correct response to suspicion as a Townie is a shrug. I mean, yes, the Town voting to test you means one less test getting applied to possible Things. But we get 2+ tests per day and even a negative test provides quite a bit of value to the Town in the form of showing us that we can trust all of your arguments (up until the next conversion) to be non-WIFOM, Town-motivated truth-seeking. In a game where half the struggle is trying to figure out who is lying to cover for whom, having people who we know to have been telling the truth is one heck of a second place prize.

    The numbers I posted are not based on these assumptions, only on the knowledge that we have two remaining Things out of eight remaining players. It allows for the possibility of repeat testing (both of people tested within the four day window and of people tested previously in the game) and is entirely agnostic to when people might have been converted.
    Not just you- most of the time I see Non-Town reacting to pressure worst then Town. It depends on the specific person too though, but it can be used as an indicative.

    Like I said above, didn't you assume we'll test four people out of eight minimum in two days? Or did you refer to the table of chances in this post?
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  30. - Top - End - #180
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I'm going to comment on these one at a time because AV and Grek did a number on my head.



    I added numbers in bold to rapresent what I'm replying to.

    (1) I'm lost, where does the 1/9 chance come from if...

    (2) ...with 4 untested people the chance of not getting tested is 3/4, why with 3 untested people it's 1/9? Shouldn't it be 2/3?

    (3) Shouldn't case one and two be the same? Meaning if we have 6/12 chances of winning today (if the Things are both untested and we go after the untested) and the chance of getting the second Thing is 50% then shouldn't the chance of ending up 6-1 be 6/12 too?

    I agree that those are crap odds for the Things, and while I think this is as WIFOM as it gets (the Things know this and know Town would know so they could have done it anyway) you've also raised a pretty good point about (4) Jeen's incosistency. I'll try to see if Jeen comes back online to reply to it (also I have a lot of posts to get through meanwhile).
    1 and 2) I kinda just wrote the whole thing out in order. That particular bit I hadn't done the math 100% yet, and I screwed up the odds. The later math about 12ths is accurate.

    3) No, because 6-2 is a possibility as well. I'll lay it out in full so it's easier to visualize:

    Spoiler: Example
    Show
    In this example, Apogee1 and AvatarVecna are the Things. Town is dedicated to testing only people who are currently untested, but they're doing so at random.

    Version 1 (1/6): Apogee1/AvatarVecna
    Version 2 (1/6): Apogee1/Elenna
    Version 3 (1/6): Apogee1/Grek
    Version 4 (1/6): AvatarVecna/Elenna
    Version 5 (1/6): AvatarVecna/Grek
    Version 6 (1/6): Elenna/Grek

    In versions 2-5, we catch a single Thing, and get another test (further testing needed, 8/12 chance). Since we've already tested two people, there's two left to test, and one test left to administer.

    Version 1 (1/6): Apogee1/AvatarVecna
    Version 2.1 (1/12): Apogee1/Elenna/AvatarVecna
    Version 2.2 (1/12): Apogee1/Elenna/Grek
    Version 3.1 (1/12): Apogee1/Grek/AvatarVecna
    Version 3.2 (1/12): Apogee1/Grek/Elenna
    Version 4.1 (1/12): AvatarVecna/Elenna/Apogee1
    Version 4.2 (1/12): AvatarVecna/Elenna/Grek
    Version 5.1 (1/12): AvatarVecna/Grek/Apogee1
    Version 5.2 (1/12): AvatarVecna/Grek/Elenna
    Version 6 (1/6): Elenna/Grek

    Version 1/2.1/3.1/4.1/5.1 end in 6-0, victory for town. This adds up to 6/12 chances of happening.

    Version 2.2/3.2/4.2/5.2 end in 6-1, which isn't victory for town as much as the same status quo that's been going on for days. This adds up to 4/12 chances of happening.

    Version 6 has us somehow lynching neither Thing, ending in 6-2, with a 2/12 chance of happening.


    TL;DR In this hypothetical scenario, there's four people to vote, two of whom are guilty, and two votes. There is a slim chance that our two votes don't catch either of them. That's why "6-0" and "6-1" don't have equal chance of occurring, because there's that slim chance that we come out even worse than normal. But three times as likely is that town just instantly wins.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's Upick

    Avatar by AsteriskAmp

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