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Thread: The Thing

  1. - Top - End - #181
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quiet in here...


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  2. - Top - End - #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Like I said above, didn't you assume we'll test four people out of eight minimum in two days? Or did you refer to the table of chances in this post?
    Technically those odds include the possibility that we test the same person today and tomorrow. P(Us catching at least one Thing today)=(1 - (6/8)^2)=0.4375, while P(Us catching at least one Thing tomorrow|no Things caught today)=(1 - (5/8)^2)=0.609375, for a combined total of P(Us catching at least one Thing using those four votes)=0.4375+(0.5625*0.609375)=0.7802734375 - the 78% figure I came to as the Town's odds. In other words, not catching ANY Things requires that we miss two 25% chances and then miss two 37.5% chances, which is actually pretty unlikely. It doesn't factor in the possibility of the Things trying to manipulate the vote, nor does it factor in any intelligent play from the Town, it just assumes that we pick randomly each time.

    In other news, I've finally puzzled out where AvatarVecna and I were talking past one another with regards to this post (bolding mine):
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'm inclined to start re-testing today. It's a little bit early, but that's the trick to catching the Things by surprise. Of the four people already tested, any of them could've been the N2 conversion, but only two of them could've been the N1 conversion as well. The only way Things lose today is if they somehow both get tested...and there's only four people left to test. If both Things are untested, and town is determined to test untested people, that's really bad news for Things.

    We test two people from A, B, C, and D today. That's 6 possible combinations. If we find one thing but not the other (4/6 possibilities), we then have one more test, and two more untested people. That's a 50/50 chance for each of those 4/6 possibilities. Long story short, if the N1 conversion is still untested, and they picked an N2 conversion who's also untested, those odds are:

    1) 6/12 chance today ends 6-0, Town victory.
    2) 4/12 chance today ends 6-1, to be 5-2 tomorrow.
    3) 2/12 chance today ends 6-2, to be 5-3 tomorrow.

    Those are crap odds. The N1 conversion got to pick the N2 conversion. They knew all day that it was likely Cao was going to die today and that they'd have to make the call on their own. They knew everything I've just said, that if town continues testing untested people D3, and they pick an untested person, they are flipping a coin where one side is labeled "lose instantly" and the other side is labeled "maybe win later?".
    The part in bold was supposed to refer to the odds of the Things. We're still in 'IMAGINATION' land, where we're pretending that we're AvatarVecna, the N1 conversion trying to figure out who to convert on N2. For some reason I thought 'I'm inclined to start re-testing today.' was a segue out of that reference frame and into a frame where we're talking about Town odds and what the Town should do, instead of looking at things from the perspective of what the Things would want to get people to do. With that cleared up, AV's posts make a great deal more sense to me.

  3. - Top - End - #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Technically those odds include the possibility that we test the same person today and tomorrow. P(Us catching at least one Thing today)=(1 - (6/8)^2)=0.4375, while P(Us catching at least one Thing tomorrow|no Things caught today)=(1 - (5/8)^2)=0.609375, for a combined total of P(Us catching at least one Thing using those four votes)=0.4375+(0.5625*0.609375)=0.7802734375 - the 78% figure I came to as the Town's odds. In other words, not catching ANY Things requires that we miss two 25% chances and then miss two 37.5% chances, which is actually pretty unlikely. It doesn't factor in the possibility of the Things trying to manipulate the vote, nor does it factor in any intelligent play from the Town, it just assumes that we pick randomly each time.

    In other news, I've finally puzzled out where AvatarVecna and I were talking past one another with regards to this post (bolding mine):The part in bold was supposed to refer to the odds of the Things. We're still in 'IMAGINATION' land, where we're pretending that we're AvatarVecna, the N1 conversion trying to figure out who to convert on N2. For some reason I thought 'I'm inclined to start re-testing today.' was a segue out of that reference frame and into a frame where we're talking about Town odds and what the Town should do, instead of looking at things from the perspective of what the Things would want to get people to do. With that cleared up, AV's posts make a great deal more sense to me.
    It's sort of from the perspective of a theoretical N1!AV picking a convert target, but it's also sort of from the perspective of a theoretical N1!Grek or N1!Elenna or N1!Apogee. I think that an untested picking an untested for the N2 conversion is so obviously an awful choice (given town's general approach so far), that the only reason to vote double-unvoted is if you think the Things are kinda dumb. Which I guess to be fair is something we don't currently have evidence for either way, but I tend to shy away from strategies that assume scumteam is going to hand us an easy victory on a silver platter.

    I'm glad it's been sorted out in your head. I've got some stuff elsewhere that I've gotta work on for the next little while, but I intend to do some more general D2 analysis to see if something else can be uncovered, and I kinda hope others will do so as well so we have stuff to look at on the off-chance Apogee flips Thing.


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  4. - Top - End - #184
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Alright, I understand both of you now. I'll probably move to JeenLeen, but first I want to see if he has anything to say (assuming he manages to come online). I'll be online before EoD anyway so I can act whenever.
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  5. - Top - End - #185
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    I canít decide if I want JeenLeen or Valmark as my second vote.

    On a reread, I somewhat disliked one of Valmark posts earlier today (Iíll pull it up in a second).

    AV is like a possibility I suppose

    But I highly doubt they were a thing before tonight. And I have a sneaking suspicion the n2 thing has already been tested idk.

  6. - Top - End - #186
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    Hmm. AV needs to be tested today, I'm sure of that. But... she makes a good point regarding retesting and who would most likely be converted. Switching my vote pair to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen.
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  7. - Top - End - #187
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    Oh whoops, seems like I forgot to post the edit.
    Apogee1 and The Outsider.
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  8. - Top - End - #188
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    I realize now Jeen meant from the fifth day of the week to the next week (I can never remember the names of the days of the week in english, together with pronunciation of the letters of the alphabet).

    So I can't actually wait for an explaination- or rather, it's extremely unlikely it'll come.

    I'll vote Apogee1 and JeenLeen (basically I moved from Grek to JL).
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  9. - Top - End - #189
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    That moves JeenLeen into the lead, but brings Apogee1 and AvatarVecna into a tie. In order to avoid having to deal with a tie, I'm changing my vote to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen, for a vote count of:

    JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Apogee1, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat

    I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.

  10. - Top - End - #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Oh whoops, seems like I forgot to post the edit.
    Apogee1 and The Outsider.
    Could you tell us why you're voting for those two? Especially Outsider, there's been a lot of people giving reasons to vote for Apogee, but Outsider is a more unusual choice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.
    I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?
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  11. - Top - End - #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    @rogue_alchemist: Did you already say what happens in case of ties? I don't think it was addressed yet (I mean 3+ ties, like at this moment).
    Yea, it happens so rarely that 3-way ties hadn't been a consideration for me. I guess if it really came to that (which it doesn't look like it is any more) I would go with the first 2 to reach the tie. Now since each person has 2 votes, there is a weird edge-case where the tie is created for 2nd/3rd at the same time. In that one particular case I would use RNG. I am tempted to say that the order you post your votes in might decide, but that would change the dynamics of post order too much. I don't think most people have been ranking their votes with posting order to this point.

  12. - Top - End - #192
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    Alright, the day is ended and votes are in:

    JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Grek, Valmark
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
    Grek(1): Apogee1

    JeenLeen seems spaced out today and everyone notes his off behavior, deciding to test him. He offers no resistance, but his results come back completely normal
    Everyone then turns to AV, who has been very active, but could be seen as hiding in plain sight. AV offers no resistance either, glad to prove their normality (if it can be called such). AV's test come back normal too.

    Day 3 ends and Night 3 begins. N3 will end 8PM GMT December 20th

  13. - Top - End - #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?
    Not exactly, but I did have good reasons for those specific suggestions. But since it that information now has some bearing on conversions, I'd prefer not to explain until after me explaining won't do the Things any good.

  14. - Top - End - #194
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    Night 3 has ended. You find another slime puddle in a different location, so you know there is at least 1 Thing out in the world to catch.

    Day 4 will end at 8 PM GMT on December 22nd

  15. - Top - End - #195
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    Okay, so there are 3 Things out of 8 players right now, meaning we absolutely need to find at least one Thing today. (I guess given the tie rules, 4 Things out of 8 players might not count as a win for the Things? But if we get to that point it's pretty much a win for the Things.)

    From process of elimination:
    • At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
    • Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
    • Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.


    So I'm looking at voting two of Apogee, Grek, Outsider, or Valmark today. (Leaving myself off the list for obvious reasons.)

    I think I've changed my mind on Apogee's towniness. Like I mentioned yesterday, I initially thought his not voting in the first round of D2 wasn't indicative of anything, because it didn't make sense to me that a Thing would avoid bussing Caoimhin there given that Cao was clearly doomed. But then I remembered Apogee mentioning in Crazier Idea that they haven't ever bussed a teammate, so maybe this does suggest that Apogee and Cao were teammates.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    If I say I've never voted for a partner of mine before will you believe me
    Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead. Kinda makes it look like they had a Thing buddy helping them out? And yes, I realize that me pushing Apogee's innocence yesterday looks suspicious in retrospect, feel free to suspect me for that. But it's worth noting that at the time when I posted my defense of Apogee, it looked like Apogee was all but guaranteed to be tested. If Apogee and I were both Things at that point, I would have just bussed.
    On the other hand, both Grek and Outsider switched from Apogee to someone else at just the right time to push another person into the lead. In fact, if I'm counting right, both of them broke ties in such a way as to push Apogee into third place. Suspicious.

    So, one of my votes is going on Apogee, and the other one is going on either Grek or Outsider - both because they suspiciously shifted their votes off Apogee, and because they could be either the N1 convert or the N2 convert while Valmark could only be the N2 convert.

    Looking at Grek and Outsider's votes yesterday:

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hmm. AV needs to be tested today, I'm sure of that. But... she makes a good point regarding retesting and who would most likely be converted. Switching my vote pair to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen.
    Why did you choose to vote AV + JeenLeen instead of Apogee + JeenLeen? Did you have a particular reason to be more suspicious of AV? Not saying this was necessarily an illogical decision given what we knew at the time - that would be silly, since I also voted AV + JL - but I want to hear what Outsider's thought process was.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    That moves JeenLeen into the lead, but brings Apogee1 and AvatarVecna into a tie. In order to avoid having to deal with a tie, I'm changing my vote to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen, for a vote count of:

    JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Apogee1, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat

    I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.
    This looks better to me than Outsider's post above, mostly because Grek acknowledges that they're breaking the tie, it doesn't feel like they want to hide that fact like they might if they were on a team with Apogee. Still want an answer to my question about that last paragraph, if only for my own curiosity, but I don't think it's a wolf tell.

    I'm going to vote Apogee and The Outsider, although this might change when Outsider answers my question above.
    Last edited by Elenna; 2020-12-22 at 03:41 AM.
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  16. - Top - End - #196
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    Grek needs a test today.

    I can't give you a reason why AV got tested over me but I mean, if you want to push the (incorrect) angle that "I have a thing buddy (in this case, exactly one) trying to keep me off the vote" I'd suggest, you know, coming up with who that might be?

    Because, I have the unique position of knowing that all three top wagons considered yesterday were town. I was wrong on JeenLeen being converted. So, no things were really in danger. Sure, Grek and like TO and Valmark (which I think contains 1+ thing as a group but that's a seperate issue) got discussed or voted a bit, but weren't really going over.

    I also thing the AV votes are mediocre especially in retrospect.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    From process of elimination:
    • At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
    • Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
    • Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.
    Is not listing me as a n2 an oversight or because you don't think I was the N2 for some reason?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post

    I'm glad it's been sorted out in your head. I've got some stuff elsewhere that I've gotta work on for the next little while, but I intend to do some more general D2 analysis to see if something else can be uncovered, and I kinda hope others will do so as well so we have stuff to look at on the off-chance Apogee flips Thing.
    Similarly AV

    Why'd you think it was an off chance I flip thing? AFAICT that wasn't really a position you had held earlier?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I also thing the AV votes are mediocre especially in retrospect.
    To clarify myself, this was votes on AV not votes by AV

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post

    Wow, I thought Grek had more posts. Probably the size.

    So, nothing particular to mention D1 besides the fact that she has remained consistent with D2- she raised a good point about AV (although I kinda agreed with AV on it- Caoimhin has every interest in lying through it in the scope of people knowing they aren't Town, so it'll be an unreliable source of information at best).

    She kept making long analysys and also stuck her neck out on that AV post- this is, to me, something that gives Town points.

    Thinking about it I honestly don't know who'd make the best "reserve Thing" to me between Elenna and Grek- probably will be the latter because I'm biased against the player I know less (and with biased I strongly mean that it's not a trustable judgement).
    Valmark can you talk about your progression from this post into:

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Grek[/COLOR], I guess. I have very close opinions between her and Elenna to be honest.
    voting Grek here?

    Because it seems you've come away with having no thing suspects but me, but haven't actually cleared a bunch of people, and end up on Grek who you just pretty strongly townread?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Grek and The Outsider.

    Something something maximize the chance of hitting the n1 idk.

  17. - Top - End - #197
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Apogee1 and Grek. They haven't gotten tested when I wanted them to (although I did move away from Grek when good reasoning was offered about JL, I don't remember who was up for the chopping block at that point in time) and now I'd like to see them tested. Especially the former, I'm open on changing the latter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post

    - - - Updated - - -



    Valmark can you talk about your progression from this post into:

    - - - Updated - - -



    voting Grek here?

    Because it seems you've come away with having no thing suspects but me, but haven't actually cleared a bunch of people, and end up on Grek who you just pretty strongly townread?
    I'm not sure what to explain. In the first quote I say that I'm more likely to vote Grek over Elenna together with you while in the second I vote Grek- I basically did exactly what I said I was likely to do (and implicitly I didn't consider her strongly Town).

    Maybe it wasn't clear what "reserve Thing" meant- I was referring to the second vote, or the second suspect to be precise
    Last edited by Valmark; 2020-12-22 at 03:29 AM.
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  18. - Top - End - #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna
    Why did you choose to vote AV + JeenLeen instead of Apogee + JeenLeen? Did you have a particular reason to be more suspicious of AV? Not saying this was necessarily an illogical decision given what we knew at the time - that would be silly, since I also voted AV + JL - but I want to hear what Outsider's thought process was.
    Full disclosure, a lot of the high-level analysis goes over my head at first glance. AV is incredibly good at putting out high-level analysis, but she's also very good at being tricky. Additionally, she seemed like somebody that a wolf-me would want on their team, for the reason stated above. So in part I wanted to be sure I could trust her analysis unreservedly, and in part because she seemed like a potential candidate for conversion. Now that I know the analysis isn't part of a Thing-trick, I'm going to try and go over it a few more times and understand as much as possible.

    As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting for Apogee1 and Valmark.

    I also have a thought for why I'm not a Thing, but I'll save it for if I accumulate more votes.
    Last edited by The Outsider; 2020-12-21 at 10:00 PM.
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  19. - Top - End - #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post

    Maybe it wasn't clear what "reserve Thing" meant- I was referring to the second vote, or the second suspect to be precise
    Okay I thought you meant more "deepwolf" than "second" here so maybe that explains it.

    But still it seems like you have a lot of reasons to townread Grek prior to voting them? Compared to like, why TO or BW or (whoever the other not me/you/AV/Elenna name is sorry whoever I'm forgetting).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Anyways this becomes more relevant partwise through the day as we can get some interactions and such

    But what I'm going to encourage is "splitting the worlds" on the first vote. Which means if you strongly think player A is a thing, and you think player B might be with them, vote for player A and then some player C that you think is likely to be a thing if A isn't one (instead of voting A/B).

    Because a) we need to get one thing on the first vote or we lose tomorrow and b) even if we get two things in the first vote, we still only get one extra.

    As an example take Elenna, who is voting me, and TO on suspicion of being allied with me. Well I actually think TO might be a thing (even having the privilege of knowing they are not in fact my partner) so maybe its a bad example, but I'd rather encourage Elenna to vote with the second vote someone who looks very likely to be a thing when I flip scientist.

    Also like, since its wrong to vote me and we need to get one or lose, I do have a somewhat selfish reason to suggest this but a pro-village one.

    Let the WIFOM commence.

  20. - Top - End - #200
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    I don't see anybody converting Apogee1 N2, for the amount of hot water they're in. I don't see anybody converting Apogee1/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider N3 for similar hot water reasons. I don't see Apogee1/Elenna/Grek getting converted N1 and converting another in that trio N2, with how much potential heat there would've been on the three of them yesterday.
    Here's another thorough table of conversion combos I consider viable:


    10/44 13/44 21/44 14/44 14/44 13/44 26/44 21/44
    N1 Conversion N2 Conversion N3 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
    Apogee1 Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Apogee1 The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Apogee1 Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Elenna Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Elenna The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
    Elenna Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Elenna Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Elenna Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Grek Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
    Grek The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
    Grek Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    Grek Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    Grek Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna Book Wombat 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Elenna Valmark 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek Book Wombat 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek JeenLeen 1 1 1
    The Outsider Grek Valmark 1 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
    The Outsider Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1


    Spoiler: First Thoughts...
    Show
    N1 Conversions
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider

    N2 Conversions
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    N3 Conversions
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    JeenLeen
    Valmark

    Using just those lists, we get:
    Apogee1: 1/3
    AvatarVecna: 1/3
    Book Wombat: 2/3
    Elenna: 2/3
    Grek: 2/3
    JeenLeen: 1/3
    The Outsider: 2/3
    Valmark: 2/3

    Using both lists of approximate rankings, we get these two orders of vague suspicion:

    The Outsider
    Book Wombat/Valmark
    Elenna/Grek
    AvatarVecna/JeenLeen
    Apogee1

    ...and...

    Book Wombat/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider/Valmark
    Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen


    First Thought Conclusion: Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen are bad choices to check today. It's not out of the question that AV/JL got converted N3, or that Apogee1 got converted N1, but there are other people who maybe got converted on multiple nights, and are just more common in the various combos.

    Spoiler: Second Thoughts...
    Show
    N1 Conversions
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider

    N2 Conversions
    Book Wombat
    Elenna
    Grek
    The Outsider
    Valmark

    N3 Conversions
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat
    JeenLeen
    Valmark

    N1 and N3 lists are exact opposite, which is about as I expected - anybody could've been converted N3, but I don't think any of the people in deep suspicion of D1 conversion would've been converted N3 - it's just asking to get caught today. Elenna/Grek/The Outsider are the N1s I'd consider voting today. From those three, as I said yesterday, I think The Outsider is the most likely conversion choice for N1, so it'd be either voting The Outsider/Elenna or The Outsider/Grek.

    If we're going to check the N3 list instead, this is much easier: checking AvatarVecna/JeenLeen again isn't a great idea since they could only have been converted N3, and there's basically nothing to go on to check and be sure (especially since JeenLeen isn't back yet). As such, Book Wombat/Valmark would be the pair to check here.


    Combos I'd be willing to check today:

    Elenna/The Outsider
    Grek/The Outsider
    Book Wombat/Valmark

    I'm gonna get some food, then start doing ISOs on these four five people. For some reason I thought two people had duplicates in that list. I'm an idiot lol.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I also hope that people take my defense of Apogee1 more seriously today than they did yesterday, taking into account the fact that I made the exact same argument yesterday, it got me checked instead of Apogee, and I still came up clean.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-20 at 06:05 PM.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Nothing currently. Maybe come start one?

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  21. - Top - End - #201
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Grek needs a test today.
    Any particular reason, or just a matter of "they're a good player and they haven't been tested yet"?

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I can't give you a reason why AV got tested over me but I mean, if you want to push the (incorrect) angle that "I have a thing buddy (in this case, exactly one) trying to keep me off the vote" I'd suggest, you know, coming up with who that might be?
    Like I said above, I think Grek and Outsider both changed their votes in such a way that you didn't get tested, and one of them might have been doing it on purpose. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Is not listing me as a n2 an oversight or because you don't think I was the N2 for some reason?
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    From process of elimination:
    • At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
    • Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
    • Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.
    ----

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Full disclosure, a lot of the high-level analysis goes over my head at first glance. AV is incredibly good at putting out high-level analysis, but she's also very good at being tricky. Additionally, she seemed like somebody that a wolf-me would want on their team, for the reason stated above. So in part I wanted to be sure I could trust her analysis unreservedly, and in part because she seemed like a potential candidate for conversion. Now that I know the analysis isn't part of a Thing-trick, I'm going to try and go over it a few more times and understand as much as possible.
    Hmm, I can definitely understand wanting to know if AV was telling the truth. On the other hand, D2 you put Apogee first and AV fifth on you list of people you would want to convert. Did you change your mind about that?
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Thinking ahead, who exactly would be a good person to convert? Assuming Caoiminh or Wombat is the original...
    -POR is seemingly inactive and thus would be a bad choice.
    -I'm going to tentatively agree that converting JeenLeen would be a real risky move.
    -That leaves us with Valmark, Elenna, Grek, AV, and Apogee. (Also myself, but I'll ignore that for the moment).
    If I were a thing, I would be looking to convert those who had gained the most trust. So for me:
    1. Apogee1, by virtue of Caerulea wanting to test them.
    2. Grek, by virtue of introducing various good ideas like the ranked lists.
    3. Elenna,
    4. Valmark, both of whom immediately pushed back against Caerulea's plan.
    5. AV, who has been seemingly trying to solve the game but is also hard to read.
    That's about the order I would try to convert in. That being said, the Thing might have a completely different way of analyzing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    But what I'm going to encourage is "splitting the worlds" on the first vote. Which means if you strongly think player A is a thing, and you think player B might be with them, vote for player A and then some player C that you think is likely to be a thing if A isn't one (instead of voting A/B).

    Because a) we need to get one thing on the first vote or we lose tomorrow and b) even if we get two things in the first vote, we still only get one extra.

    As an example take Elenna, who is voting me, and TO on suspicion of being allied with me. Well I actually think TO might be a thing (even having the privilege of knowing they are not in fact my partner) so maybe its a bad example, but I'd rather encourage Elenna to vote with the second vote someone who looks very likely to be a thing when I flip scientist.
    Good point, I agree that this could be a good way to cast votes today.
    That being said, if you're not a thing then either Grek or Outsider was the N1 conversion, which means if I vote for one of them then I have a 50-50 chance of hitting a Thing even without taking analysis into account. So it doesn't actually change my plan to vote for you and one of Grek or Outsider today.
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  22. - Top - End - #202
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Thing

    Spoiler: Elenna ISO
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Hmm, okay. So we have one original Thing, and one Thing that was converted N1.

    For the original Thing, I was figuring at the end of D1 that there were five possible candidates: AV, Outsider, Caoimhin, Rouges, and Grek. This was based on


    We know now that Outsider wasn't a Thing at the start, and I'm inclined to think Rouges wasn't either, since they're MIA and therefore wouldn't have converted last night. (It's possible that they're only pretending to have ghosted, and are actually putting in conversions, but that would be kind of a crappy way to play, not to mention really boring. So I'm mostly dismissing that possibility for now.)

    Of the three remaining, AV, Caoimhin, and Grek, nothing much has really changed my mind about them. Specifically, I still think AV and Grek looked more townie D1 then Caoimhin did, especially AV, so my first vote is going on CaoimhinTheCape.

    As for the N1 conversion... idk. Unless I've been ninja'd, this is the first post of D2, so there's basically nothing to go on except thinking about "who do I think the Thing would convert based on D1", which is rather prone to WIFOM. Still, if it's the only thing I have to go on right now, might as well think about it.

    As far as I can see, there's a few possible options for "who would the Thing convert":
    • People who looked trustworthy at the end of D1: based on the logic above this and most people's lists, this includes Apogee and Book Wombat (based on Caerulea's list), JeenLeen and TheOutsider (based on passing tests), and myself, Valmark and Grek (based on generally seeming trustworthy to multiple people)
    • People who are good players and good at acting towny: AV and Valmark would be at the top of this list, IMO.
    • People who are unlikely to be tested D2: If I were a Thing, I might be tempted to convert JeenLeen or Outsider, just because people might be reluctant to spend a test on the same person twice in a row.

    And, of course, there's WIFOM involved: the Thing might want to avoid converting good players, for example, because they're the obvious target, but then maybe they would know we would think that so they'd be find with converting good players, but then... insert infinite loop here.

    Yes, this list of possible conversions covers almost everyone in the game. I'm almost tempted to use my second vote on Grek, my second-highest candidate for the original Thing, and worry about finding the conversion later. That has the advantage of making it almost certain (IMO) that we'll find the original Thing and get a second test today. But I'm significantly more suspicious of Caoimhin than of Grek, so there's a good we'll get a second test anyways, and I don't really like the idea of just ignoring the conversion.
    Thinking I'll put my second vote on Valmark for now, as they're both a good player and seemed trustworthy D1, but it'll probably move around as discussion happens.
    The "everybody is a potential conversion" list still rubs me the wrong way, but over time I've grown more comfortable with the vote. The first post of D2, and it's Elenna voting Cao and giving lots of analysis. If I was the N1 conversion, I don't think my first move would be to bus my buddy immediately, I'd at least try to look elsewhere and see if I could provide some cover.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Interesting that most people are going for two votes on candidates for the original Thing, rather than voting for a possible conversion. I guess the difference is that most people have two candidates they're unsure about, whereas I was pretty sure Caoimhin was the original Thing.

    That being said, I hadn't considered that Caerulea might have been expecting to move away from their list D2. They did mention that they would have pushed for re-testing the first two people D2, so I guess it's possible that BookWombat could be a Thing despite being tested D2 on Caerulea's list. Still seems unnecessarily risky on Caerulea's part, but maybe Caerulea thought it was balanced out by them being moved to D2 instead of D1.

    As such, and because my Valmark vote was pretty sketchy, I'm switching my votes to CaiomhinTheCape and BookWombat. (The Caoimhin vote hasn't changed, I'm just including it here for clarity.)

    @Grek what do you think about my/JeenLeen's argument that PoR would be inactive and therefore wouldn't have converted last night?

    @JeenLeen why did you pick Grek to vote for instead of Book Wombat, when you said that Grek's analysis seemed townie? I know you gave Wombat towncred for voting Caerulea, but Grek also voted Caerulea?
    "whereas I was pretty sure Caoimhin was the original Thing"

    Hmm...

    On the one hand, it's a common scumslip to look more informed than you should be. On the other hand, that's a well-known scumslip, and is why wafflewolf is a thing, leaving confidence to townies who are sure about their leans. And certainly, a lot of people turned out to be pretty sure Cao was scum...I'm not sure how to lean about this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I'm not sure knowing who did the conversion helps all that much, since it seems like most people's lists of who they would convert are fairly similar. We can probably narrow down a shorter list right now of 5-6 people who are more likely to be converted, and I don't think finding the original Thing necessarily shortens that list much, given that their list is certainly full of WIFOM.

    My main issue with putting both our votes on original-Thing candidates today is that the Thing almost certainly didn't convert anyone who would be strongly suspected of being an original Thing, because they wouldn't want their new recruit to be voted off quickly. There's some WIFOM there, I guess, but it would be immensely stupid for the Thing to have converted Caoimhin last night. Book Wombat I could maaaybe see as a conversion if the Thing was hoping they would be saved by their place on Caerulea's list, but still, it seems very unlikely.

    So if we put two votes on possible original Things, we're almost guaranteed to hit the original Thing (if it's not Caoimhin or Wombat, or PoR who will be tested by the autolynch, I will be very surprised and impressed), but we're almost certain not to hit the converted Thing.

    OTOH if we put one vote on the most likely original Thing, and one vote on a likely conversion, we have a ~1/5 or 1/6 chance of testing the conversion (maybe a bit less in case the Thing did something unusual, maybe a bit more because analyzing a day's worth of posts is hopefully better than random chance). But we also may not successfully test the original Thing. I think it's probably Caoimhin, but then I also thought that about Outsider yesterday.

    So it seems to me that which strategy is better depends on how certain you are of getting the original Thing in one test. I was nearly certain it was Caoimhin at the start of the day, hence my vote for Valmark, but after thinking some more and reading others' arguments I'm less convinced of Wombat's innocence, so I moved that vote to Wombat.

    As for who I would convert:

    I probably wouldn't end up going with JeenLeen or Outsider, just because that possibility is even more prone to WIFOM than the rest of this list. For example, JeenLeen's post where they basically argue "I don't think we should test Outsider because they feel safe to town, so they'll probably get retested, so wolves wouldn't convert them, so we shouldn't test them". So much wine. If I were a Thing, I wouldn't want to try and predict which side of that infinite loop Town would choose. As mentioned above I guessed that town wouldn't want to spend a test to re-test someone, but I wouldn't want to take the risk.

    Here's my list of conversion targets:
    • Valmark and Apogee, in no particular order. I think Valmark is better at looking townie (no offense), but that might make them too obvious of a pick. I'd probably end up choosing between them using RNG, in an attempt to be less predictable.
    • Below that is JeenLeen and Outsider, I guess. Maybe JeenLeen before Outsider since I think the former did better at not looking suspicious D1.
    • AV and Grek. They're fairly low on my list because if I was the Thing, I'd know that Caoimhin and Wombat weren't Things, so I'd know that AV and Grek would probably be the next candidates suspected of being the original Thing, and therefore they'd have a good chance of being tested D3. If I were in Caoimhin or Wombat's position and knew I would likely be tested the next day, I would have AV and Grek above JeenLeen and Outsider.
    • Book Wombat. It's worth noting that when this day started I didn't expect so many people to vote Wombat, so if I were a Thing they might be higher up on my list, because I wouldn't expect them to be a target for testing. But based on D1 they seem fairly likely to make posts that seem suspicious, so I probably still wouldn't put them above AV and Grek. Really this just means that I might consider them as a possibility instead of immediately going "oh heck no".
    • Caoimhin. There's the "oh heck no". Why would I pick someone who was clearly going to be tested today?
    • PoR. If I was the Thing, I would know for sure that he wasn't posting in the Thing QT, and I definitely wouldn't recruit someone who was almost certain to ghost.




    I remembered that PoR has been pretty quiet in the past, but I didn't remember if they were particularly quiet D1. Honestly I think they might just be bad at remembering to check threads and realizing games have started? Regardless, given the autolynch, no reason to check them now. If they don't auto (either by suddenly showing up or just by mysteriously not autolynching), we can vote them tomorrow. Especially if we don't catch the original Thing today.
    "I'm not sure knowing who did the conversion helps all that much, since it seems like most people's lists of who they would convert are fairly similar."

    This point is true, but it had also already been addressed: hunting down the conversion based on the list of whoever the original was is a trap, but that's not the point of hunting the original first, or of asking for lists. The point of hunting the original is that it makes it more likely that we'd get at least one that day, as opposed to either getting two or none (like what happened D3). The point of asking for lists is so that we can analyze people's given reasons for converting this person or that person, and sus out who's giving fake reasoning to try and disguise scumbuddies. Given how much both of these points were discussed D2 up to this point, I think it's weird that it was still not being understood.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Okay yeah Cao was almost certainly the original Thing imo. I could maaaybe see a world where PoR was paying just enough attention to convert but not enough to put any thought into it, and randomly picked Cao? But if that's the case we'll find out when they don't auto. I can't imagine any of the other possible candidates for original Thing picking Cao when they were clearly going to get tested.

    I'm not convinced by the argument that thing!Grek wouldn't stick their neck out with that AV post. The argument seems to be that wolves don't draw attention to themselves when not in danger. But at that time, the votes were one for Valmark*, one for Grek, so it's not like Grek was in a safe position. I could see them trying to redirect town to another target, which has the bonus effect of letting them push whichever one didn't get tested as a possible mislynch D3.

    *AV says that Valmark is at the top of ther list of possible conversions, but hasn't actually voted him yet, unless I'm missing something? Not sure if this is a wolf tell or just town!AV forgetting to add the color coding.

    I think Apogee is less likely to be the conversion target. For one thing, how often do wolves deliberately not vote at all? Seems like a surefire way to draw attention, since the narration lists the people who didn't vote. Apogee could have flown under the radar better by not saying much and just voting for the same two people as almost everyone else (*cough* like Valmark did *cough*). Granted, there's some WIFOM there, and I've made this argument in past games so it's possible he could have predicted I would make this argument, I guess? But it still seems like an unlikely thing to do on purpose.
    Of course, that just means Apogee is telling the truth that they intended to vote. It doesn't mean they're town, Things can get busy and forget the schedule too. But putting your actual partner at the top of your to-convert list feels really ballsy, especially since Caoimhin knew that the chances of their side winning depended entirely on their partner surviving the next round. Personally I wouldn't have the guts to do that, for what that's worth. Not an airtight argument by any means, but I'm willing to give Apogee a pass for today.

    Valmark, as I mentioned, was among my top picks for who I would have converted. And I could see Cao especially wanting to go for a strong player, since Cao knew they would most likely be lynched. And, as others have mentioned, Valmark has been less active today. Definitely suspecting them of being the conversion.

    Honestly not sure what to think of AV. Their analysis is good but they could definitely fake that. They're kind of an obvious conversion target for being a good player, but that also makes them an obvious test target and therefore a bad conversion target, etc. In any case I haven't seen anything from AV that makes me more suspicious of them than the general baseline level of suspicion they get for being AV.

    Cao's list is a WIFOMy mess, but if you absolutely forced me to guess I'd say that he would probably remember AV's post and put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his list, but not the very top as mentioned above. So Valmark, JeenLeen, or Outsider (since I'm pretty skeptical that he would choose to convert an inactive player, and Wombat is confirmed town). I would normally also consider #3 on Cao's list, but that's me and I know I wasn't converted. But I'm very much not certain of that because, again, WIFOMy mess.

    One thing I noticed from Cao's list, though - they said JeenLeen and Outsider were more likely to be tested, but by the time they posted that list it was pretty clear, I thought, that most people were against re-testing them immediately. Could be a sign that they were looking for a reason to move JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they really were?
    Of course then the question is, did Cao want to move them down the list because one of them was the actual conversion, or because Cao wanted town to think one of them was the actual conversion? Ugh, WIFOM.

    Voting for Valmark today, for the reasons stated above (as well as being second on Caomhin's conversion list, I suppose) but I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Grek in the future.
    "I think Apogee is less likely to be the conversion target. For one thing, how often do wolves deliberately not vote at all?"

    I vaguely recall that somebody has brought up Apogee saying they don't vote scumbuddies, and I'm glad to have this counterpoint already brought up by somebody. This is exactly the kind of "wolves don't draw attention to themselves when they're not in the spotlight" thing we were talking about with Grek: if Apogee1 was the N1 conversion, sure I figure they don't vote Cao, but surely they'd vote somebody, if only to not be immediately suspicious. This is the move of a townie who isn't sure Cao is scum, not of scum that knows Cao is scum and doesn't wanna vote a scumbuddy even if it'll get them immediately suspected. Elenna pointing this out instead of just jumping on the "apogee is obvious" scum wagon everybody else is on wins her some points with me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Just double-checking - this means PoR wasn't a Thing, right? Unfortunate, but about what I expected after Caoimhin flipped.
    Null read, just a clarification request.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Not 100% sure on this, but I think you can get around that by starting a reply with the first 10 (or whatever) quotes, going back to the page (in a separate tab), and unchecking all the "reply with quote" buttons. Then you can click "reply with quote" on 10 more comments, start a new reply in the new tab with those 10 comments, and copy-paste the second one into the first one. But that's a pain, and I'm not completely certain that the site won't object when you try to post the reply.


    For me, it was less the elimination process itself, and more that it felt like you weren't putting in as much effort D2 as you were D1, which might have been because you knew who the Things were. Obviously that wasn't the case, but that's what my reasoning was.
    Null. First part is site mechanics, second part is very basic "voting Valmark d2" reasoning. I voted Valmark d2 as well, so I get it, but voting somebody who isn't scum is something scum could do easily, so that's not a tell either way.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through.
    Plus there's a fair amount of overlap in the pools of "good N1 conversions" and "good N2 conversions", I think, so maybe we'll manage to get both of them.

    Something I remembered during the Night, from the Crazier Idea game:

    Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before.
    Also IMO, Apogee was the one person I was almost certain was going to be tested today, so it seems pretty unlikely they were the N2 conversion. Doesn't mean they couldn't be the N1 conversion, and I can understand people voting for them on that account. But since I'm personally not that suspicious of Apogee, I don't want to vote for them and give up the possibility of finding the N2 conversion.

    I think we should re-test one of JeenLeen and Outsider today. For one thing, I agree with AV that the Things probably picked at least one already-tested person by this point. We could re-test BW or Valmark, I guess, but there's only one night they could have been converted versus two nights JL/Outsider could have been converted. Plus I'm skeptical that the Thing would pick BW who was almost completely checked out of the game by the end of D2 - there's obviously a possibility of WIFOM there, but it seems like too risky of a play.
    Also, like I said yesterday, I would put a slightly higher probability that Cao put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his "to convert" list, and it did seem like he was moving JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they deserved.

    Of the two of them, JeenLeen feels like they would be a more attractive conversion target. They were playing pretty well D2, and even D1 they seemed more engaged and were doing more analysis than Outsider, even if I disagreed with several of their D1 arguments.

    That leaves AV or Grek for my other vote. I want to vote for at least one of them today, instead of doing another re-test on Outsider, BW, or Valmark, both because I don't think any of those three are particularly likely to be Things and because AV and Grek have been driving a lot of the discussion, which is obviously bad if one of them is a Thing.

    Looking at it again, my argument against Grek was mostly a counterargument against the statement that "Grek wouldn't stick their neck out when they weren't in danger". That's a reason Grek isn't innocent, but it's not actually a reason Grek is a wolf. If I had a reason to be particularly suspicious of Grek, I don't remember it now.

    Honestly, I know AV is good enough at deception that I can't tell when they're a wolf, and I suspect Grek is too.

    As Grek said, it does seem weird that AV argued for everyone posting "who would I convert" lists and then claimed that we should ignore Caoimhin's list because it was too WIFOM-y. But both those posts were the same day, so it's not like AV changed their mind because of being converted.
    Hmm, I wonder if maybe Thing!Caoimhin didn't actually run that list by AV before posting it, so AV didn't have a chance to tell Caoimhin to avoid putting AV in the middle, and that's why AV changed their mind on the usefulness of conversion lists? There was only ~1.5 hours between the suggestion of "we should post a list of people to convert" and Caoimhin actually posting their list, maybe Cao decided not to take the time to discuss it?
    IDK, it's a bit of a stretch since both AV and Caoimhin were online at the time (based on their posts) and AV could just have posted in Thing chat saying "hey, put me near the end of that list". But it could fit what we see, and I don't think AV has actually explained why they changed their mind about lists yet.

    Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now. I'm picking AV instead of Grek because of the above, and because nobody has actually posted much of an argument against Grek beyond "they're a good player so they would be a good convert", which is just as true of AV.
    "Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through."

    As my posts D3 indicate (and my earlier post today), I think just because it's harder to figure out who would've been converted N2 based on who might've been converted N1, doesn't mean there's no value in doing so. Eliminating people from multiple conversion lists is useful, and figuring out the potential combos is a good way to look for connections between players. One person acting a little weird could just be a person acting a little weird. Two people acting a little weird, but acting a little weirder about each other...that's scumsign. Case in point, I'm sure the primary reason I got voted yesterday is because everybody is convinced Apogee is guilty, and I was defending Apogee, so I'm on the chopping block.

    "Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before."

    Ah, so Elenna's the one that brought that up. Hrm...

    "Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now."

    AV/JL were both innocent, so somebody voting them both could be scum flying under the radar. I'm kinda assuming that town is definitely checking To today (and Apogee, despite my protests). If TO flips scum, Elenna's on my shortlist of scumbuddies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Could you tell us why you're voting for those two? Especially Outsider, there's been a lot of people giving reasons to vote for Apogee, but Outsider is a more unusual choice.



    I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?
    Both are worthwhile questions that I'm glad somebody asked. Townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Okay, so there are 3 Things out of 8 players right now, meaning we absolutely need to find at least one Thing today. (I guess given the tie rules, 4 Things out of 8 players might not count as a win for the Things? But if we get to that point it's pretty much a win for the Things.)

    From process of elimination:
    • At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
    • Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
    • Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.


    So I'm looking at voting two of Apogee, Grek, Outsider, or Valmark today. (Leaving myself off the list for obvious reasons.)

    I think I've changed my mind on Apogee's towniness. Like I mentioned yesterday, I initially thought his not voting in the first round of D2 wasn't indicative of anything, because it didn't make sense to me that a Thing would avoid bussing Caoimhin there given that Cao was clearly doomed. But then I remembered Apogee mentioning in Crazier Idea that they haven't ever bussed a teammate, so maybe this does suggest that Apogee and Cao were teammates.



    Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead. Kinda makes it look like they had a Thing buddy helping them out? And yes, I realize that me pushing Apogee's innocence yesterday looks suspicious in retrospect, feel free to suspect me for that. But it's worth noting that at the time when I posted my defense of Apogee, it looked like Apogee was all but guaranteed to be tested. If Apogee and I were both Things at that point, I would have just bussed.
    On the other hand, both Grek and Outsider switched from Apogee to someone else at just the right time to push another person into the lead. In fact, if I'm counting right, both of them broke ties in such a way as to push Apogee into third place. Suspicious.

    So, one of my votes is going on Apogee, and the other one is going on either Grek or Outsider - both because they suspiciously shifted their votes off Apogee, and because they could be either the N1 convert or the N2 convert while Valmark could only be the N2 convert.

    Looking at Grek and Outsider's votes yesterday:


    Why did you choose to vote AV + JeenLeen instead of Apogee + JeenLeen? Did you have a particular reason to be more suspicious of AV? Not saying this was necessarily an illogical decision given what we knew at the time - that would be silly, since I also voted AV + JL - but I want to hear what Outsider's thought process was.


    This looks better to me than Outsider's post above, mostly because Grek acknowledges that they're breaking the tie, it doesn't feel like they want to hide that fact like they might if they were on a team with Apogee. Still want an answer to my question about that last paragraph, if only for my own curiosity, but I don't think it's a wolf tell.

    I'm going to vote Apogee and The Outsider, although this might change when Outsider answers my question above.
    "Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead."

    And now that the two people Elenna voted have flipped innocent, it's Apogee's fault even though she's previously argued for his innocence and the primary evidence seems to be...that people believed her and me? So those people who believed our Apogee defense and voted elsewhere are now scumbuddies? And Elenna's calling out TO and Grek for voting the exact same way Elenna voted???

    I'll say this again: if TO flips scum, and Apogee flips town, take a hard look at Elenna.


    In general, I think Elenna has a number of things that indicate town, and a number that indicate scum. If Apogee flips town and TO flips scum, Elenna should be at least be strongly considered for our third test. I'll definitely wanna reevaluate my lists at that point, though.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-20 at 07:27 PM.


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  23. - Top - End - #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Any particular reason, or just a matter of "they're a good player and they haven't been tested yet"?


    Like I said above, I think Grek and Outsider both changed their votes in such a way that you didn't get tested, and one of them might have been doing it on purpose. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here?
    Oops completely missed that part :/

    Yeah I'll go more into depth on Grek later but yes I have a reason for going for them beyond not being tested.

    Although apparently? I've missed there are only two other not tested n1s which makes this a lot easier for me I thought there was one besides TO Grek and I.

    Well that fits at least.

    Clearly I'm tired.

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    Spoiler: Book Wombat ISO
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    This starts at D3 for the same reason Elenna's started at D2: we've already discussed the stuff from before then, and that's the point where their posts could potentially show scumsigns (BW can't have been converted N1, so looking at D2 stuff for scumsigns is pointless).

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Vote count:
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, ...
    AvatarVecna (3): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, ...
    Grek (2): Valmark, Apogee1, ...
    JeenLeen (3): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, ...
    The Outsider (1): AvatarVecna, ...
    Valmark (0): ...
    Elenna (0): ...
    Book Wombat (0): ...


    Pretty even, going to look through the thread again before editing in my votes.
    "before editing in my votes."

    Reeeeeeeeeee

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Oh whoops, seems like I forgot to post the edit.
    Apogee1 and The Outsider.
    I already don't think Apogee is scum. I will say that this feels a lot less like bussing than a lot of Elenna's comments, so I'll say that I don't think BW and TO are scumbuddies, even as I also think there's a pretty good chance that at least one of them is scum. I really wish they'd given reasoning, and I'm hoping they answered Elenna's question.

    Oh wait, no, that's it for their posts after SoD3.


    On the one hand, BW is flying under the radar pretty hard for the period in which they could be scum. On the other hand, they were flying under the radar before that point, and that's exactly why they got checked D2. I'm not sure what to make of them, I just know that they wouldn't have been an awful choice if you were trying to avoid getting your buddy checked.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?
    And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.

    At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting for Elenna and The Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-21 at 07:01 PM.

  26. - Top - End - #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Alright, we know that last night there was a single Thing who converted someone else, bringing us to 8v2. Here's all of the remaining possible days according to AV's chart:

    Furthermore, we know the naive prior probabilities of each player being a Thing:

    ~2 in 9 (1 in 8 of being an original thing, plus 7 in 72 of being a converted Scientist)
    AvatarVecna
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Valmark
    PartyOfRouges
    Grek
    Book Wombat
    Apogee1

    1 in 9 (Purely based on the chance of having been converted last night.)
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen

    BUT, I think we can do better by excluding everyone The Outsider rated as probably not Thing and (as a bit of an ad-hoc decision based on Caerula moving them in testing order) Book Wombat from consideration as a possible Original Thing, BUT giving them double chances to be converted (on the logic that Things would want to convert people the Town trusts). That changes the numbers to:

    ~11 in 20 (1 in 2 of being an original thing, plus 1 in 18 of being a converted Scientist)
    CaoimhinTheCape
    PartyOfRouges


    1 in 9 (2 in 18 chance of being a converted scientist)
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Valmark
    Grek
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat

    Subjective factors that didn't make it into the above analysis: I personally think Elenna, Valmark and especially AvatarVecna are more suspicious than The Outsider rates them as being, but still rate them as being more likely to have been Town than Thing yesterday. Also, I believe that not posting on D1 is a terrible practice and that the fact that PartyOfRouges always does this should not be regarded as evidence of trustworthiness.
    Math posting in and of itself isn't necessarily scumsign (obviously, I do it the most, and we know how that turned out), but it's fairly different from Grek's D1 approach. Not proof, but potentially corroborating evidence.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    @Elenna In every game that I've played with PoR, they either didn't post or posted minimally on D1, but were never removed for inactivity. This has lead me to assume that it's part of a meta-strategy where they're always quiet on D1, so nobody sees it as scummy or calls them out on it because they always do it, Townie or otherwise. The confirmation that PoR is going to drop dead at the end of the day if they don't post is enough to make me hold off on voting them until tomorrow, though.

    As far as Original Thing vs Converted Thing voting goes, I'll be honest: There were a lot of people who seemed solidly Town as of N1, which makes it hard to narrow down who the Thing might have viewed as a safe conversion target. Doing AV's "Who would I have converted?" exercise gives me the following list:

    1. Elenna. Trusted by most players, but not Apogee1 level trusted where it'd be obvious.
    2. Valmark. Same reasoning, but less familar of a player to me. Less sure of their skill.
    3. The Outsider. The fact that he looked scummy even as Town would make him easier to overlook.
    4. PartyOfRogues. They'll probably start playing/get replaced at some point, with a fresh history.
    5. Apogee1. It's the obvious pick, but sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick.
    6. JeenLeen. People seem reluctant to double test, but if they overcame that, they'd test Jeen.
    7. AvatarVecna. Always hard to read, will probably get tested soonish no matter what.
    8. Book Wombat. Already had some heat yesterday, but seemed to get through it.
    9. CaoimhinTheCape. Already had heat yesterday from JeenLeen, worst target to pick today.
    10. Grek. Obviously, in this thought experiment I'm not a valid target.
    11. Caerula. Invalid target, regardless of if we're in a thought experiment.

    General considerations: I'm pretty trusted by the Town, so I don't need to chase trustworthiness quite as much as a hypothetical Book Wombat or AvatarVecna Thing would want to do. But I also know that I'm an obvious D3 pick, so I want someone who is unlikely to get voted on at the same time I get voted on. There is also a preference toward converting people who are making good arguments, not just because of the convincingness-factor (which dries up every night) but because it'll make those people shift toward less good arguments. For a more typical Original Thing, Apogee1 moves up in the listings considerably as a probable conversion target, so they're the one I'm switching my vote to. Besides, they just posted without voting, which is a decidedly different policy from yesterday.
    Nothing pops out as objectionable in this post. If we check Grek, and she flips scum, I'd probably consider Valmark and The Outsider. Grek/Elenna seems unlikely to me just because I really don't think we would've had double-untested going into D3.

    ...although now that I say that, Grek was making a lot of confusion around the point I was making, and Grek/Elenna were the two untested who weren't getting voted (which were Apogee and me). If Grek flips, and it turns out Elenna was the N2 conversion, then I essentially spent D3 calling Grek stupid...

    ...I'll keep that in mind reading through things going forward. See if makes posts make more sense.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    So, the first time I read through this I nodded along and went "Yeah, logical, it would be pretty WIFOM." But then I realized that this was AvatarVecna posting. The trickiest of tricksters in the GITP Mafia community. And she's telling me not to read something because it's a WIFOM trick. So, let's have a look at that list, shall we?
    Let's put ourselves into the mindset where AV is a converted Thing trying to cover for Caoimhin's tells.

    The level 0 interpretation is that Caoimhin would have converted Apogee1, Valmark or Elenna, since those people were the highest on Caoimhin's list of conversion targets.

    The level 1 interpretation is that Caoimhin (having seen the writing on the wall) wanted us to think that they would have converted those people, but actually would have converted Book Wombat, The Outsider, JeenLeen - the people Caoimhin had rated as bad conversion targets. (We can exclude PoR, since rogue_alchemist had announced that inactivity death was a thing at this point.)

    The level 2 interpretation is that Caoimhin is psyching us out and actually converted one of the people in the middle of their list, hoping that we'd focus on one of the lower level interpretations. Note that this is the same level of interpretation that AV had previously applied to Caerula's posts:


    The level 3 interpretation (which AV is advocating for) is that the list has no relation to Caoimhin's actual thought processes and can be safely ignored. Which would be really convenient if AV was actually thinking the list was a level 2 ploy by Caoimhin and needed a reason to dismiss it as evidence - it has AvatarVecna right in the middle, exactly where D1!AvatarVecna would suggest that Caoimhin would put their newly converted scumbuddy in the list.

    So. While I do understand and support the Valmark vote train, I actually think AvatarVecna is the more likely conversion target.
    This is either the post where Thing!Grek starts attacking my credibility, to set up for actually getting me tested and not listened to D3...or this is the post where Town!Grek 100% played themselves trying to find the scumbuddy-marble under Cao's cups. I've already addressed the actual arguments plenty.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    If I was the Thing, it'd make way more sense to just pitch in another quiet vote on the Valmark bandwagon. I posted the AV vote because I actually think it's good logic.
    I've already said as much (as did Grek here, as well as Valmark), but this is what makes me think Grek was genuine D2. Grek was the person pushing me the hardest and the soonest, and if she were scum, she'd know that eventually that would reflect poorly on her (which is why she seems to just be going along with my assessments today). I'm inclined to think Grek isn't a N1 conversion, which leaves Apogee, TO, and Elenna to check for that one...and y'all know my thoughts on Apogee.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Basically this.

    Ultimately, what the Town is looking for in a scum tell is something that is consistent with a Wolf posting, but inconsistent with a Townie posting. After factoring in that a Wolf wants to look like a Townie and is willing to make minor sacrifices to their position in order to secure that appearance.

    Even AV agrees that telling people to not search one of Cao's posts for tells IS the sort of thing a Wolf would do. And while there's a fair argument to be made for it also being something a Townie might do, we happen to have an example of AvtarVecna arguing the opposite in a previous post in this thread. So it seems to me that while some hypothetical Generic Townies might argue against paying attention to Cao's conversion list, it doesn't seem consistent with what AvatarVecna personally would do as a Townie. At least to me. In my experience, AV likes to try for clever gambits and has a high opinion of her own ability to navigate WIFOM situations. She's not just going to throw up her hands and say "There's no way we can glean any useful information from this post, best just ignore it entirely." Not unless AV had some other motivation for wanting us to not look at that post. Hence the vote.

    I can very much see where the Valmark voters are coming from, though. And where the people who are suspicious of me are coming from - I'd probably have been thinking of converting me, if I was the Thing last night. But I also feel like having people fall in to vote for a single target without really discussing the alternatives is a mistake. At the very least, me making a case for AV (and Valmark making a case for Apogee1, if he could please go into more detail about what exactly he thinks Apogee's changed?) gives the Town more information to work off in the hypothetical case that we find out that Valmark is still a Scientist. (Obviously, if Valmark is a Thing, the game's over.)
    Clarifying her position, sticking to the argument in the face of disagreement. Yeah, this is a townie, at least on D2.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    I don't know why Cao would do that. I'm just saying, it looks like he did. Maybe he thought that since you warned against doing it in thread, everyone would assume he wouldn't dare? Like I've pointed out before, you don't beat WIFOM by trying to always be one level up from the other guy, you beat it by looking for behavioral differences between the Town/Scum cases that are difficult to use as a counter-signal. I would further like to note that P(AV was converted on N1) has no bearing on P(AV was converted N2|AV wasn't converted N1) - even if you weren't converted when I suspect you were, that still leaves you with the same one in seven baseline rate of having been converted N2 as everyone else. Saying that you were probably converted on Day X doesn't mean that people can't point to stuff you did on different days. If you're pretty sure someone's cult, the when of their conversion is mostly academic when it comes to deciding if you vote for them or not. ???

    These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town. We're currently at two Thing conversions from a Thing victory and will get to test four out of the eight survivors during that time, minimum. BUT, since there's two Things today (25% of the population), we have 43.75% chance of finding at least one Thing today and a 78% of finding at least one Thing using all four votes. Additional votes from finding a Thing bring us up to probable Town victory, even factoring in the fact that the Town is probably going to make choices that are better than random. Speaking of random voting, though:

    Name N1 N2
    AvatarVecna 16.67% 28.57%
    The Outsider 16.67% 28.57%
    JeenLeen 16.67% 28.57%
    Elenna 16.67% 28.57%
    Valmark 0% 14.29%
    Grek 16.67% 28.57%
    Book Wombat 0% 14.29%
    Apogee1 16.67% 28.57%
    The above assumes that Caerula and Caomhin were the original Things and that the Things chose randomly when converting people. If you suspect very strongly that a given person was not converted on N1 (say, based on an assumption that the Things aren't going to convert randomly because obviously they're not going to do that), that information can up to halve the likelihood of that person being a Thing right now; conversely if you feel certain that the Things wouldn't have converted someone LAST night, but might have converted them on N2, that can reduce their likelihood of being a Thing by around 60% - a little better than half.

    My prior reasoning with regards to AvatarVecna stands, but I'd like to highlight an additional aspect to it which I declined to bring up prior to the Things submitting their conversion vote: In the hypothetical case where AvatarVecna somehow wasn't a Thing before now, credibly making it look as if I was going to push for an AV vote today means that AV probably wasn't converted N2 - obviously the Things aren't going to want to convert somebody who has attention on them. This changes the math a bit on the table above (AV is down to only a naive 16.67% alongside Book Wombat and Valmark; everyone else is up to ~30%), but doesn't really change my list:

    1. AvatarVecna, as despite the prophylaxis of suspicion, I think he was converted N1.
    2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
    3. The Outsider, because clearly we can't tell if they're being scummy or not.
    4. JeenLeen, because I can imagine the Things trying to exploit already tested bias.
    5. Elenna, because she's been very on point about ferreting out Things so far.
    6. Grek, because while I know that I'm not a Thing, it WOULD be nice to have the Town know that too.
    7. Book Wombat, by virtue of the odds. Nearly tied with Valmark below on that basis.
    8. Valmark, by virtue of the odds, and making some good points about Apogee1.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Maybe it's just a 'me' thing, but given the format and the fact that a negative test doesn't remove you from the game, I feel like the correct response to suspicion as a Townie is a shrug. I mean, yes, the Town voting to test you means one less test getting applied to possible Things. But we get 2+ tests per day and even a negative test provides quite a bit of value to the Town in the form of showing us that we can trust all of your arguments (up until the next conversion) to be non-WIFOM, Town-motivated truth-seeking. In a game where half the struggle is trying to figure out who is lying to cover for whom, having people who we know to have been telling the truth is one heck of a second place prize.

    The numbers I posted are not based on these assumptions, only on the knowledge that we have two remaining Things out of eight remaining players. It allows for the possibility of repeat testing (both of people tested within the four day window and of people tested previously in the game) and is entirely agnostic to when people might have been converted.

    That said, I do find the broader point compelling and would be delighted to vote for JeenLeen or The Outsider just as soon as you've been tested and I know for sure that you're not just trying to direct our attention off of the people on your list. I mean, consider the possibility (from the bystander PoV) that you and I are the two Things - me as the N1 Thing staging an accusation against you and then converting you as a giant distancing play which also sets you up for this pro-retest argument that just so happens to exclude the both of us from consideration. Apogee1 or Elenna could plausibly be trying something similar, or the opposite could be going on with you as the N1 Thing converting one of us untested three while you do a stage magician trick to keep us from ever being tested.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Technically those odds include the possibility that we test the same person today and tomorrow. P(Us catching at least one Thing today)=(1 - (6/8)^2)=0.4375, while P(Us catching at least one Thing tomorrow|no Things caught today)=(1 - (5/8)^2)=0.609375, for a combined total of P(Us catching at least one Thing using those four votes)=0.4375+(0.5625*0.609375)=0.7802734375 - the 78% figure I came to as the Town's odds. In other words, not catching ANY Things requires that we miss two 25% chances and then miss two 37.5% chances, which is actually pretty unlikely. It doesn't factor in the possibility of the Things trying to manipulate the vote, nor does it factor in any intelligent play from the Town, it just assumes that we pick randomly each time.

    In other news, I've finally puzzled out where AvatarVecna and I were talking past one another with regards to this post (bolding mine):The part in bold was supposed to refer to the odds of the Things. We're still in 'IMAGINATION' land, where we're pretending that we're AvatarVecna, the N1 conversion trying to figure out who to convert on N2. For some reason I thought 'I'm inclined to start re-testing today.' was a segue out of that reference frame and into a frame where we're talking about Town odds and what the Town should do, instead of looking at things from the perspective of what the Things would want to get people to do. With that cleared up, AV's posts make a great deal more sense to me.
    More and more, these posts feel like scum trying to obfuscate the points I was making.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Book, you somehow forgot my votes. Actual Tally:

    Apogee1 (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    JeenLeen (3): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna
    Grek (2): Valmark, Apogee1
    The Outsider (1): AvatarVecna

    Not voting: Book Wombat x2
    Null, either side would say something like this when left off a vote-count.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    That moves JeenLeen into the lead, but brings Apogee1 and AvatarVecna into a tie. In order to avoid having to deal with a tie, I'm changing my vote to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen, for a vote count of:

    JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Apogee1, Grek
    AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
    Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
    The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat

    I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.
    This would indicate a possible Apogee/Grek scumteam on D3 if

    1) Grek didn't start out bussing Apogee

    2) I was in any way willing to accept a pair of untested scum going into D3.

    So I'm not sure what to make of this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    Not exactly, but I did have good reasons for those specific suggestions. But since it that information now has some bearing on conversions, I'd prefer not to explain until after me explaining won't do the Things any good.
    I'm unclear why "if AV flips scum, they were clearly defending against an Apogee/AV double-lynch, so we should lynch Apogee next" is something that should be kept secret. The JL/TO connection is similarly straightforward, even if I don't particularly agree with it. Townie playing cards too close to the chest, or scum unsure if playing their hand would look too scummy, and thus playing more conservatively?

    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.

    At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting for Elenna and The Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)
    I didn't then, and still don't now, see why "I wouldn't have picked an untested person to get converted, because then there would be two untested Things, and town has been testing untested people so far, so that would get us instantly caught" is "game-theoretical reasons". It is and was attempting to predict conversion choices based on what situation this person or that person would've been in if they were the N1 conversion. It was, and still is, highly relevant information for basing our lynches on, and I really don't like how you're simultaneously dismissive of the concept, while going along with it anyway to not look too suspicious for continuing to tear down my arguments after it's been proven they came from a townie.


    My prediction: Grek was the N2 conversion.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: The Outsider ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    For the moment, I'm going to put my votes on CaoiminhTheCape and BookWombat, for the reasons outlined previously. I'd also keep an eye on Elenna, Valmark, and Grek, as all of them were trustworthy enough in my eyes to be possible candidates for conversion.
    Valmark has since been checked, the other two haven't. idk what that says about TO tho.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Thinking ahead, who exactly would be a good person to convert? Assuming Caoiminh or Wombat is the original...
    -POR is seemingly inactive and thus would be a bad choice.
    -I'm going to tentatively agree that converting JeenLeen would be a real risky move.
    -That leaves us with Valmark, Elenna, Grek, AV, and Apogee. (Also myself, but I'll ignore that for the moment).
    If I were a thing, I would be looking to convert those who had gained the most trust. So for me:
    1. Apogee1, by virtue of Caerulea wanting to test them.
    2. Grek, by virtue of introducing various good ideas like the ranked lists.
    3. Elenna,
    4. Valmark, both of whom immediately pushed back against Caerulea's plan.
    5. AV, who has been seemingly trying to solve the game but is also hard to read.
    That's about the order I would try to convert in. That being said, the Thing might have a completely different way of analyzing.
    I'm not sure what to make of this. I don't like that there's no argument made for Elenna (potential support for my earlier TO/Elenna theory), but the other arguments feel solid-ish.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I'm about where JeenLeen is: it could be Elenna, Grek, or Valmark. I'm voting Grek for the moment, on the grounds that they introduced a lot of helpful analysis and pushed back against Caerulea's plan. I would want them on my team.
    Clearly had some strong feelings about Grek over the others, but was convinced elsewhere. Either a townie who's a bit uninvested, or scum just going with the flow.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Is it just me, or does Grek's most recent post feel like a diversionary tactic? Drawing focus to AV's post, which had generally good reasoning behind it, and using... is there a word for logic that works well if your assumption is true, but doesn't prove the assumption? Circumstantial evidence, maybe? In short, they're drawing attention to something in a way that feels misleading to me. Makes me a lot more confident about my vote for them.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    You know, if absolutely nothing else, I am learning a ton from this game. I hadn't considered the angle of "a wolf isn't going to draw attention to themselves when they don't need to." Though I suppose in my head, trying to draw attention when targeted would seem more wolfish, which would naturally lead to trying to influence at less critical times... again, learning a lot. Switching my vote to the next person in the toss-up, Valmark. Although I should note that arguing against my flawed reasoning is a town-like move, despite it being a move anyone could make.
    Again, I think it's really weird that TO pushed Grek pretty hard, and then abandoned the wagon when they got pushback. Where Grek stuck to her guns, TO is being shifty.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I agree with that vote. Apogee1 and AvatarVecna seem like good choices, especially since AV outright predicted they would be converted last night. Also, in answer to your question, Valmark, everybody had some sort of action that made them look Town-like in my eyes. I voted you because I didn't see a point in splitting the wagon when I didn't have anything to go on.
    TO just latched onto JL's vote, which is part of why I suspected it might be the both of them together. TO later abandoned that vote...

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Honestly, my pick for a conversion last night would have been Valmark. Town seems to be acknowledging the possibility of retesting people while implicitly shying away from it, and it feels like the kind of tricky move that's just safe enough for a Thing to go for. This game has prompted unprecedented levels of WIFOM as well, and it might catch people by surprise to stop earlier in the "This way or that way" cycle. It's not enough for me to vote right now, but it's a possibility.

    I also have to unfortunately acknowledge that said argument would also work for BookWombat, as well as JeenLeen and myself to a lesser extent. Of those four options, however, Valmark and Jeen have been the most helpful so far, and Valmark was the more recent test of the two.
    "I think last night's conversion would've been somebody who's already been tested. That's why I'm only voting people who haven't been tested yet."

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Hmm. AV needs to be tested today, I'm sure of that. But... she makes a good point regarding retesting and who would most likely be converted. Switching my vote pair to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen.
    ...TO switched from Apogee to JeenLeen. Because they can't get 100% on board with re-testing or they have to acknowledge they're on the chopping block too.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Full disclosure, a lot of the high-level analysis goes over my head at first glance. AV is incredibly good at putting out high-level analysis, but she's also very good at being tricky. Additionally, she seemed like somebody that a wolf-me would want on their team, for the reason stated above. So in part I wanted to be sure I could trust her analysis unreservedly, and in part because she seemed like a potential candidate for conversion. Now that I know the analysis isn't part of a Thing-trick, I'm going to try and go over it a few more times and understand as much as possible.

    As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting for Apogee1 and Valmark.

    I also have a thought for why I'm not a Thing, but I'll save it for if I accumulate more votes.
    *inhales deeply*

    Y'all remember back on D1, when Cao asked why self-vote, and I answered something "because people won't bother taking my analysis seriously until they're sure they can trust me or not"? This, this right here, is exactly what I meant: somebody saying, in their own words, that they haven't bothered trying to understand my analysis much. Not because they thought I was untrustworthy, but because they were unsure. This right here is exactly why I self-vote so much, and why I started out self-voting when we didn't have a better idea of what to do D1. This right here basically always happens.


    I'm feeling a lot more confident that I should vote TO today.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: Valmark ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    But by now you would have already been converted, so how are you flying under the radar with "no way the wolves would convert an inactive"? You're announcing the inaction after the potential conversion.

    Fair- although we disagree on the wagon thing (no point in voting on a wagon winning by a lot, that vote could be used to attract attention on somebody else).

    In fact just tagging along a formed wagon seems Thing-y. I do have somewhat better targets though.


    Imo converting re-tested people seems like the more likely bet in a vacuum (as in, if the Thing doesn't have a target they want). This because psychologically I think there is a tendency for us Scientists to trust more someone who has been tested previously even if we have no reason to- at least that's what I think I!Thing would think of when converting someone.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I forgot to vote- Apogee1 and... Grek, I guess. I have very close opinions between her and Elenna to be honest.

    Thoughts?
    I appreciated the JeenLeen call-out, even as it turned out to be unwarranted. The response to TO is also about what I'd expect from town!Valmark. I'm unhappy about how wishy-washy the vote-choices feel, though. Hopefully there's more analysis and stronger leans later in this ISO.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    It's a bit too late for me to properly read AV's and Grek's 'heavy' posts, so I'll do that in the morning- but I wanted to quickly address this.

    I wanted to specify that I was exclusively referring to Cao's Original Thing list- namely, the fake list they were presumably using to try and convince us of someone else being a Thing (presumably because we don't actually know for sure if Cao was a Thing D1).

    I was not referring to the list about conversion which would (assuming they were an Original Thing) target their buddy and thus need a bigger kind of mislead.
    Good clarification. Time will tell if Valmark addressed our bigger posts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    @rogue_alchemist: Did you already say what happens in case of ties? I don't think it was addressed yet (I mean 3+ ties, like at this moment).
    I appreciate the clarification question, although it's a null tell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I'm going to comment on these one at a time because AV and Grek did a number on my head.



    I added numbers in bold to rapresent what I'm replying to.

    (1) I'm lost, where does the 1/9 chance come from if...

    (2) ...with 4 untested people the chance of not getting tested is 3/4, why with 3 untested people it's 1/9? Shouldn't it be 2/3?

    (3) Shouldn't case one and two be the same? Meaning if we have 6/12 chances of winning today (if the Things are both untested and we go after the untested) and the chance of getting the second Thing is 50% then shouldn't the chance of ending up 6-1 be 6/12 too?

    I agree that those are crap odds for the Things, and while I think this is as WIFOM as it gets (the Things know this and know Town would know so they could have done it anyway) you've also raised a pretty good point about (4) Jeen's incosistency. I'll try to see if Jeen comes back online to reply to it (also I have a lot of posts to get through meanwhile).

    - - - Updated - - -



    (1) Like I think AV pointed out afterwards, these are incredible Town odds- meaning orrible Thing odds. We have to predict what the Things do, so ideally they wouldn't do that (unless, again, they thought we'd think this, and WIFOM).

    (2) Shouldn't the theorical random odds be lower? The majority of the population today and tomorrow will obviously be Scientists so how do we have such an high chance of catching a thing if our votes are far less then the possibilities? Testing 4 different people out of 8 shouldn't give us more then 50% odds to catch the minority, should it?
    (I'm actually bad when it comes to more convoluted probability calculation so it's entirely plausible that what I'm saying is stupid).

    Also we aren't assured of testing 4 out of 8 people, since the 2 we test (assuming we don't catch a Thing) from today's pool get added back for the next 2 tests.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Alright I thought there would be much more to reply to.



    Not just you- most of the time I see Non-Town reacting to pressure worst then Town. It depends on the specific person too though, but it can be used as an indicative.

    Like I said above, didn't you assume we'll test four people out of eight minimum in two days? Or did you refer to the table of chances in this post?
    This is the kind of poking and prodding I was hoping for.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Alright, I understand both of you now. I'll probably move to JeenLeen, but first I want to see if he has anything to say (assuming he manages to come online). I'll be online before EoD anyway so I can act whenever.
    Hrm...I'd rather a pressure-vote had been put on just in case V didn't make it back. But that's just personal preference, and Valmark did end up voting, so that's null tell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I realize now Jeen meant from the fifth day of the week to the next week (I can never remember the names of the days of the week in english, together with pronunciation of the letters of the alphabet).

    So I can't actually wait for an explaination- or rather, it's extremely unlikely it'll come.

    I'll vote Apogee1 and JeenLeen (basically I moved from Grek to JL).
    I'm glad this vote has a bit more confidence behind it, even as I don't like the vote for Apogee.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Apogee1 and Grek. They haven't gotten tested when I wanted them to (although I did move away from Grek when good reasoning was offered about JL, I don't remember who was up for the chopping block at that point in time) and now I'd like to see them tested. Especially the former, I'm open on changing the latter.



    I'm not sure what to explain. In the first quote I say that I'm more likely to vote Grek over Elenna together with you while in the second I vote Grek- I basically did exactly what I said I was likely to do (and implicitly I didn't consider her strongly Town).

    Maybe it wasn't clear what "reserve Thing" meant- I was referring to the second vote, or the second suspect to be precise
    Don't feel great about this response to Apogee.


    Slight town lean overall, and the strongest townlean of these five. I think I'd like to hear Valmark go into detail on his thoughts on each player, to be sure.


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  27. - Top - End - #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'm unclear why "if AV flips scum, they were clearly defending against an Apogee/AV double-lynch, so we should lynch Apogee next" is something that should be kept secret. The JL/TO connection is similarly straightforward, even if I don't particularly agree with it. Townie playing cards too close to the chest, or scum unsure if playing their hand would look too scummy, and thus playing more conservatively?
    I only saw that post after the N3 started. If Elenna actually didn't make the obvious connection, then it was possible that the Things might also not have made the connection. If Elenna already figured it out but was asking for other reasons, explaining during D4 was just as good as explaining during N3. Not a huge deal either way, but absent any particularly good reason why it couldn't wait until after the next day, I decided to avoid night-talk. After all, a Thing reading that post could easily come to the conclusion that I'd support a Apogee1/The Outsider vote today, even though I'm no planning to vote Apogee at all today.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I didn't then, and still don't now, see why "I wouldn't have picked an untested person to get converted, because then there would be two untested Things, and town has been testing untested people so far, so that would get us instantly caught" is "game-theoretical reasons". It is and was attempting to predict conversion choices based on what situation this person or that person would've been in if they were the N1 conversion. It was, and still is, highly relevant information for basing our lynches on, and I really don't like how you're simultaneously dismissive of the concept, while going along with it anyway to not look too suspicious for continuing to tear down my arguments after it's been proven they came from a townie.
    I'm drawing a distinction here between making assessments based off of the state of the game (inferences made on the state of the game and theorizing about what you'd personally try if you were in a a given position) vs. making assessments based off of knowledge about the individual players (stuff like me being a relative unknown who is hard to read, or Party of Rogues always being late to D1). While the former sort of analysis is generally more useful, it's also more subject to change based on a person's position in the game; in my experience scum are more willing to lie about what they think the scum would be doing a given situation than they would be about the previous game history of various players. Yesterday, I was sure you were a Thing and so treated your arguments with suspicion. Today, I know that you weren't a Thing and that I can trust those arguments. Just like I said I would here:
    Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
    That said, I do find the broader point compelling and would be delighted to vote for JeenLeen or The Outsider just as soon as you've been tested and I know for sure that you're not just trying to direct our attention off of the people on your list.
    I now know for sure that you weren't trying to protect a scum buddy. The argument that the Things are definitely going to try to convert people who've been tested is convincing. Obviously so, or I wouldn't have made that very point pre-game and mentioned it during my first post in the thread. I get that this looks like I'm backing down and just going with the flow today and that that looks hella scummy, but to be fair it IS what I said I'd do yesterday and it is fully in agreement with what I said I think the Town should base its strategy on before the game even started. If people want to vote for me, I get it, even setting aside my insider knowledge that I'm not a Thing, I think the town would be better served by Elenna/The Outsider or by Valmark/Book Wombat, just to be dead sure of not losing instantly due to a mislynch.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-20 at 10:25 PM.

  28. - Top - End - #208
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Combos I'd be willing to check today:

    Elenna/The Outsider
    Grek/The Outsider
    Book Wombat/Valmark
    You know what, belay that. That'd be my list if we weren't at LYLO, but Grek's right, we are. If we're looking to maximize our odds of catching at least one Thing with our initial two tests (which we have to, to avoid losing immediately), then we need to test two from Book Wombat, The Outsider, and Valmark.

    @Book Wombat

    @The Outsider

    @Valmark

    I want to hear you three's thoughts on all players currently. Y'all are being fairly quiet and while I've already got my opinions, I'd like to hear more from you to feel a bit more secure in my voting.


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  29. - Top - End - #209
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    Default Re: The Thing

    The Outsider and Valmark. I see y'all are online, speak your minds.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2020-12-22 at 04:22 AM.


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  30. - Top - End - #210
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    The Outsider and Valmark. I see y'all are online, speak your minds.
    Yeah, sorry, I've been rather sleepy all day (due to IRL reasons) so I've been avoiding posting here until I had a fresher mind (which hasn't come). I'll try to get something useful out in answer to your questions but I don't promise anything until tomorrow morning/noon.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Anything useful at least.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Okay I thought you meant more "deepwolf" than "second" here so maybe that explains it.

    But still it seems like you have a lot of reasons to townread Grek prior to voting them? Compared to like, why TO or BW or (whoever the other not me/you/AV/Elenna name is sorry whoever I'm forgetting).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Anyways this becomes more relevant partwise through the day as we can get some interactions and such

    But what I'm going to encourage is "splitting the worlds" on the first vote. Which means if you strongly think player A is a thing, and you think player B might be with them, vote for player A and then some player C that you think is likely to be a thing if A isn't one (instead of voting A/B).
    I don't actually have much better readings then on JL, BW or TO. On one side she's been contributing more for sure, on the other I don't know her. I'd feel much better after a test, though I'd change if I see a valid reason to (like I said in a previous post).

    Although to be fair I find at least JL and BW unlikely. We know Jeen was Town until now, I doubt they would convert them while they might not vote at all D4.
    And BW has been generally little present (not unlike me today), if you think under the idea that the Things need to get active people doing their job looking Town he wouldn't be a likely candidate.
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