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  1. - Top - End - #151
    Titan in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    It's not a rigorous statistical analysis by any means, but when it comes to the effectiveness of shutting business and banning personal gatherings, I find Minnesota's case and death curves very interesting.

    By the end of October/early November it was pretty clear that we were in pretty much textbook exponential growth*. On the 10th of November, the governor issued an order that slightly restricted bars and restaurants, then followed this up with a much stricter order on the 18th which closed restaurants and bars for indoor dining, and banned all meetings between people from different households. At that point we were reporting about 7k cases a weekday, and roughly half that on the weekends. Now because this was right before Thanksgiving, and the reporting apparatus more or less shuts down for holidays, the data are pretty garbage for the next week or so, but by late November/early December cases had dropped considerably. The 30th is back up to 7k, but right after that the case count/day just starts to plummet. At that point the so-called 'dial-back' had been in effect for about two weeks, which at least to me looks an awful lot like the fact nobody was going anywhere or seeing anyone was effectively interrupting chains of transmission.

    The death curve paints a similar picture, although it's a lot noisier, the delay between the order on the 18th and the peak is longer, and the overall decrease in the rate has been much smaller than the decrease in cases. But it looks like the death rate peeks about the week of December 12th or 18th, i.e. 3 - 4 weeks after the 'dial-back' order. This is apparently about what one expects, based on the lag between infection and death; by the time of the order most of the people who died in the next 3 or 4 weeks were probably already infected and not preventable deaths anymore.

    It's of course possible that this isn't a result of the order, but it seems to me that a pretty solid alternative hypothesis is necessary. The changes in the curve's trajectory are pretty consistent with what's known of the progression of the disease, and certainly something acted as a brake in late November and early December.


    *Like so textbook you could look at the plots, smooth out the weekend bumps, and notice that the daily and cumulative curves were making exactly the same shape.
    Blood-red were his spurs i' the golden noon; wine-red was his velvet coat,
    When they shot him down on the highway,
    Down like a dog on the highway,
    And he lay in his blood on the highway, with the bunch of lace at his throat.


    Alfred Noyes, The Highwayman, 1906.

  2. - Top - End - #152
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Forum Explorer's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    The lack of a national level distribution plan is really evident, isn't it? How is the rollout going in non-U.S. countries?
    Slow but steady here. Which is fine, because we're likely gearing up to the point where we are using vaccine faster than we can get it.

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    I suspect the devil is in the details. The Stanford paper talks about subtracting the effect of lrNPIs and the general course of the virus but they use two hand-picked countries to create that baseline: South Korea and Sweden.

    They say in the case of SK that they did not implement mrNPIs but instead relied on extensive contact tracing and testing. But since the countries they're subtracting SK from didn't use as extensive contact tracing and testing, any sort of advantage from that would be attributed against mrNPIs.

    On the other hand, they may be using Sweden and SK to bracket the extremes since it looks like they do pairwise comparisons.

    Will look in more detail later.
    Sweden is a bad example these days anyways. At first they were fine and comparable to South Korea, but now they've got 7 times the cases with a fifth of the population and a death per million rate that is over 100 times greater than South Korea's.
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  3. - Top - End - #153
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    ElfPirate

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    The lack of a national level distribution plan is really evident, isn't it? How is the rollout going in non-U.S. countries?
    The rollout is as far as I know going fine. We just aren't getting enough doses in Finland, and I think that's a concern in other European countries. The EU has secured supplies as a collective but not getting what was promised. Though eg I hear in the Netherlands there is an issue with storage as they were expecting another vaccine type requiring less stringent storage needs.

    Am sure you are all just pouring them out and mishandling them over there in the US or something...
    Last edited by snowblizz; Today at 06:56 AM.

  4. - Top - End - #154
    Troll in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Vaccinations seem to be going Ok in the UK. The government have set a target of 2 million vaccinations a week and though we haven't got there yet we hit 1.2 million vaccinations for the week ending 10th of January. So hopefully gearing up to it
    All Comicshorse's posts come with the advisor : This is just my opinion any difficulties arising from implementing my ideas are your own problem

  5. - Top - End - #155
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    The lack of a national level distribution plan is really evident, isn't it? How is the rollout going in non-U.S. countries?

    Quote Originally Posted by snowblizz View Post
    The rollout is as far as I know going fine. We just aren't getting enough doses in Finland, and I think that's a concern in other European countries. The EU has secured supplies as a collective but not getting what was promised.

    I can pretty much second the Finland perspective for Germany. People are complaining the government should have bought independently from the EU, I personally disagree with that assessment. We are one market and the EU approach was the right one.

    Rollout is simply based on age and profession as far as I can tell.
    I could register now to get the vaccine I decided against it because I think other people need it more right now.
    Last edited by Justanotherhero; Today at 09:57 AM.

  6. - Top - End - #156
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Do we know why our body 'remembers' for some diseases and not others?
    OK, I remembered to ask my microbiologist friend while we were doing our weekly online game. Disclaimer first: this has been filtered through my non-medical brain, so take it as what it is: hearsay and simplification. All errors are mine, pinches of salt, etc.

    Essentially, the "memory" is stored in the memory cells, like the video showed. Their skin is a sort of duplicate of the pathogen, and is used as a pattern to create antibodies. However, like any cell it dies relatively quickly (I believe he mentioned about 21 days), and thus have to keep duplicating to retain the pattern. These duplication slowly degrade the pattern until it isn't good enough to actually train the antibodies. How long the degradation takes depends on how good the pattern was to start with, and that is dependent on the disease. So with syphilis, the pattern last longer than human lives, while for, say, polio, you need boosters every few years if you are going to a risk area.

    Funnily enough, the flu pattern is actually very long lived - what makes it need a new vaccine every year is that the flu virus changes. But occasionally, out of random chance, a flu season will repeat a pattern from decades earlier, and a bunch of old people are still immune to it - those are good years, too, since of course old people are more vulnerable, so starting off with a bunch of them already immune is great.

    Grey Wolf
    Last edited by Grey_Wolf_c; Today at 06:47 PM.
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