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  1. - Top - End - #571
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by sktarq View Post
    I would have agreed pre-pandemic. I also would have thought that only outliers would be against vaccines or make a huge deal about masks. But we saw how that turned out.
    There is still a good deal of fear around in some circles, but I think that'll fade with time, as the increasing numbers of vaccinated folk drive the case numbers down. We don't fear the Bubonic Plague, after all, as nasty as it was.

    And honestly, if someone opts to keep wearing masks afterwards, they are free to do so, and as they become increasingly rare, it will be difficult for them to attempt to shame everyone they meet into doing likewise.

    I do think Science is largely irrelevant to it, as most people are not conducting scientific studies themselves, and are probably not conversant on the details of the studies that are being done, the question is which authority to trust, and that's...well, inherently a bit subjective. Fauci has a position of authority, but he did hurt his credibility a fair bit throughout this affair, and folks are remembering that he did also bungle the AIDS response back in the day.

    At the end of the day, even folks with a doctorate can be wrong, misinformed, biased...and when you get a fairly severe situation with incomplete information, people are inherently guessing a bit and worked up. Not every bit of info is perfect. Fortunately, unless one of the variants proves to be especially problematic to vaccinated folks, we're on the downhill slope, and all of this should calm down some.

    Quote Originally Posted by farothel View Post
    I agree. I saw them quite often in airports and on airplanes, especially in Asia, mostly after the SARS epidemic in 2003. Mostly people who have a cough who wear them to avoid infecting others.
    IMO, that does seem polite. If you're feeling a bit rough and concerned you may have something, no harm in taking precautions to avoid spreading it. Staying home if you can/wear a mask/keep your distance...take your pick. All of them seem like a nice way to care about others. I wouldn't demand that anyone do one of these things, because life is complicated, but I appreciate the sentiment when they do.

  2. - Top - End - #572
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I just heard of a new way of framing the "Should I get Vaccinated" question.

    Everyone will eventually get vaccinated. The default vaccine, the one you will eventually get if you opt to not get one of the others, has killed nearly 4 million of the 176 million people who got it (22 people out of every 1000) worldwide. It also has serious non-lethal side effects, generally making you feel really ill for a couple of weeks, with some effects lingering for over half a year. You can't predict when you will get it, so you can't plan around the down time. It's also not as effective as the other vaccines, especially against some of the new variants running around.

    On the other hand, you can opt to get one of the manufactured-in-a-lab vaccines. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has killed 28 people out of the 8.7 million people who received it, or 3 people per million (compare with the 22,000 per million killed by the default vaccine). The side-effects of the manufactured vaccines are much milder than the default vaccine, usually being no worse than a couple days feeling mildly ill. Plus, you can schedule the time you get these vaccines, so you can plan around having a couple of days feeling under the weather.

    So. You're going to get one of these vaccines. Which will you choose?

    In the interests of full disclosure, I received two doses of the Moderna vaccine (and the rest of my immediate family received Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines), but am otherwise unaffiliated with the vaccine manufacturers.

    Edit: The reframing does not apply to those who cannot get vaccinated due to compromised immune systems or not having a manufactured vaccine approved for their demographic.
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  3. - Top - End - #573
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I don't see why everyone is in such a rush to ditch the masks. I got my second shot a little over three weeks ago, and I don't feel ready to go maskless yet. My state has gone with the rule that you can go maskless if you're vaccinated, but it's on the honor system. I'm going to be cautious until cases in my area go way down from where they are. Though I am now willing to go maskless when gathering with vaccinated friends.

    That being said, I am well aware that I am a worrywart, so I hope my concerns are an excess of caution. But my brain's not really wired for hope.

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    I just heard of a new way of framing the "Should I get Vaccinated" question.

    Everyone will eventually get vaccinated. The default vaccine, the one you will eventually get if you opt to not get one of the others, has killed nearly 4 million of the 176 million people who got it (22 people out of every 1000) worldwide. It also has serious non-lethal side effects, generally making you feel really ill for a couple of weeks, with some effects lingering for over half a year. You can't predict when you will get it, so you can't plan around the down time. It's also not as effective as the other vaccines, especially against some of the new variants running around.
    Wait what vaccine are they administering with such a high fatality rate---- OH! I get it.
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  5. - Top - End - #575
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Just got my first shot Pfizer today. So far, no side effects of any kind.
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  6. - Top - End - #576
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    eek Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    I just heard of a new way of framing the "Should I get Vaccinated" question.

    Everyone will eventually get vaccinated. The default vaccine, the one you will eventually get if you opt to not get one of the others, has killed nearly 4 million of the 176 million people who got it (22 people out of every 1000) worldwide. It also has serious non-lethal side effects, generally making you feel really ill for a couple of weeks, with some effects lingering for over half a year. You can't predict when you will get it, so you can't plan around the down time. It's also not as effective as the other vaccines, especially against some of the new variants running around.

    On the other hand, you can opt to get one of the manufactured-in-a-lab vaccines. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has killed 28 people out of the 8.7 million people who received it, or 3 people per million (compare with the 22,000 per million killed by the default vaccine). The side-effects of the manufactured vaccines are much milder than the default vaccine, usually being no worse than a couple days feeling mildly ill. Plus, you can schedule the time you get these vaccines, so you can plan around having a couple of days feeling under the weather.

    So. You're going to get one of these vaccines. Which will you choose?

    In the interests of full disclosure, I received two doses of the Moderna vaccine (and the rest of my immediate family received Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson vaccines), but am otherwise unaffiliated with the vaccine manufacturers.

    Edit: The reframing does not apply to those who cannot get vaccinated due to compromised immune systems or not having a manufactured vaccine approved for their demographic.
    Heh, I used that exact same argument on a guy I was arguing with on-line a few weeks back when he said he wasn't going to be vaccinated because 'he didn't want COVID in his body'

    He deleted the post and blocked me
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  7. - Top - End - #577
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Arkon View Post
    I don't see why everyone is in such a rush to ditch the masks.
    My glasses steam up and I can't see much if it covers my nose, I will probably keep wearing one (even over my nose in shops) for quite a while, but they are definitely inconvenient for glasses wearers.
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    My glasses steam up and I can't see much if it covers my nose, I will probably keep wearing one (even over my nose in shops) for quite a while, but they are definitely inconvenient for glasses wearers.
    I've got a couple masks with metal nose pieces you can bend to fit tight, and I put my glasses so they rest on the mask instead of on my nose directly. That way not a lot if air leaks at the top, and the lenses aren't in the airstream. I'd say that solves about 90% of the fogging issue.
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  9. - Top - End - #579
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    My glasses steam up and I can't see much if it covers my nose, I will probably keep wearing one (even over my nose in shops) for quite a while, but they are definitely inconvenient for glasses wearers.
    I got a gel seal mask with filter inserts and its pretty good about not fogging glasses. I tried it while hiking once and even when I was breathing heavily after going up a hill, nothing. It also has back-of-head straps which are much more comfortable than ear straps for me.

  10. - Top - End - #580
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    I just heard of a new way of framing the "Should I get Vaccinated" question.

    Everyone will eventually get vaccinated. The default vaccine, the one you will eventually get if you opt to not get one of the others, has killed nearly 4 million of the 176 million people who got it (22 people out of every 1000) worldwide.
    Both those numbers are likely severe underestimates; WHO estimates that around 8 million people have actually died of Covid so far.
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  11. - Top - End - #581
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    This pandemic should be over at least a month or 2. I'm just guessing but we're doing good so far with the vaccinations and social distancing.
    Last edited by Bartmanhomer; 2021-06-15 at 06:03 PM.
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  12. - Top - End - #582
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    My glasses steam up and I can't see much if it covers my nose, I will probably keep wearing one (even over my nose in shops) for quite a while, but they are definitely inconvenient for glasses wearers.
    I wear glasses too, and I know, it can be a pain. My masks have trained me over the past year not to push my glasses all the way up. And sometimes my glasses do sit in the fog zone, and there's nothing to do but adjust them and wait for them to clear. It is easier if your breath is not escaping through the top of the mask. And I practiced. Often.

  13. - Top - End - #583
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    This pandemic should be over at least a month or 2. I'm just guessing but we're doing good so far with the vaccinations and social distancing.
    It would be pleasant to think that.

    We might have it mostly wrapped up here in the US in a couple months (aside from the fact that roughly 15 -30% of the population seems to prefer the "Default Vaccine" I mentioned above), but in the rest of the world, particularly the poorer countries, things are much, much worse. And every new case is another chance for a new strain that our current vaccines won't be able to handle, and then we'll be back at the beginning.
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  14. - Top - End - #584
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    It would be pleasant to think that.

    We might have it mostly wrapped up here in the US in a couple months (aside from the fact that roughly 15 -30% of the population seems to prefer the "Default Vaccine" I mentioned above), but in the rest of the world, particularly the poorer countries, things are much, much worse. And every new case is another chance for a new strain that our current vaccines won't be able to handle, and then we'll be back at the beginning.
    On the positive side of the coin, Novavax is being given emergency authorization. It has the same effectiveness as the mRNA vaccines, is a one-shot, and can be stored in a normal refrigerator rather than the ultra-cold environment Pfizer requires. Here's hoping leadership is pro-active at pushing it out to the rest of the world. Much of the developing world is getting Sinovac, which is somewhat useful but nowhere near as effective as the mRNA or the J&J vaccines are.

    We've got to assume there will be future variations of COVID. Happily, mRNA is both more effective against variations and easier to modify . I expect it to degenerate into the same kind of yearly headache we have with flu, where booster shots are needed on a regular basis but it is no longer a health emergency.

    After all, it's not going to be a novel coronavirus forever. It's already adapting to us, and we to it. So I would expect it to evolve to be both more contagious and less lethal, since lethality isn't really in a virus' best interest. A living host is a host that spreads the disease, after all, while a dead host takes the viruses with it into the ground or the fire if the body is burned.


    Respectfully,

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    Last edited by pendell; 2021-06-16 at 12:51 PM.
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    There's also a vaccine under investigation that's based upon the Yellow Fever vaccine and that would give life-long protection (something they think current vaccines won't give, although there's no data one way or the other). It's not yet far enough along to be produced, but it could be used as booster later on, when the rush of the pandemic is a bit less than it is now.
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Arkon View Post
    I don't see why everyone is in such a rush to ditch the masks. I got my second shot a little over three weeks ago, and I don't feel ready to go maskless yet. My state has gone with the rule that you can go maskless if you're vaccinated, but it's on the honor system. I'm going to be cautious until cases in my area go way down from where they are. Though I am now willing to go maskless when gathering with vaccinated friends.

    That being said, I am well aware that I am a worrywart, so I hope my concerns are an excess of caution. But my brain's not really wired for hope.
    I find them annoying, personally. I am a glasses wearer, and that's a factor. I can adjust the mask so that it isn't too great a problem, but if it gets jostled, leakage is annoying. It's much more convenient to not worry about it, especially because I've been fully vaccinated for a good while now, and infections in my area have become far less common.

    But tastes do differ. Some enjoy them as a fashion statement, out of a sense of privacy, or for other reasons. So long as you're not hurting anyone, I say do what makes you happy.

  17. - Top - End - #587
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    It would be pleasant to think that.

    We might have it mostly wrapped up here in the US in a couple months (aside from the fact that roughly 15 -30% of the population seems to prefer the "Default Vaccine" I mentioned above), but in the rest of the world, particularly the poorer countries, things are much, much worse. And every new case is another chance for a new strain that our current vaccines won't be able to handle, and then we'll be back at the beginning.
    You're not wrong about the other countries though.
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  18. - Top - End - #588
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    On the positive side of the coin, Novavax is being given emergency authorization. It has the same effectiveness as the mRNA vaccines, is a one-shot, and can be stored in a normal refrigerator rather than the ultra-cold environment Pfizer requires. Here's hoping leadership is pro-active at pushing it out to the rest of the world. Much of the developing world is getting Sinovac, which is somewhat useful but nowhere near as effective as the mRNA or the J&J vaccines are.

    We've got to assume there will be future variations of COVID. Happily, mRNA is both more effective against variations and easier to modify . I expect it to degenerate into the same kind of yearly headache we have with flu, where booster shots are needed on a regular basis but it is no longer a health emergency.

    After all, it's not going to be a novel coronavirus forever. It's already adapting to us, and we to it. So I would expect it to evolve to be both more contagious and less lethal, since lethality isn't really in a virus' best interest. A living host is a host that spreads the disease, after all, while a dead host takes the viruses with it into the ground or the fire if the body is burned.


    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    I'm not sure Covid's lifecycle is the kind that is pressured to be less lethal. Most people who die of Covid take about a month to do so, which is long past the period of peak infectiousness. So kill vs 'sick but survive' would be like a percent of a percent fitness effect, and the variants that are out there seem to still have 20 - 100% sorts of improvements in immune escape and contagiousness that they're exploring, and those adaptations have come with some increases in severity in younger people as well.

    On the other hand, I could see pressure to have less obvious (or more delayed) symptoms, but that's only if people with mild Covid symptoms change their behavior to be less infectious - e.g. take sick days off of work even for a non-debilitating cough or suspicious loss of taste. And presumably those lesser symptoms in the infectious phase would correlate with fewer serious cases.
    Last edited by NichG; 2021-06-16 at 03:40 PM.

  19. - Top - End - #589
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    You're not wrong about the other countries though.
    I believe the US has written up a proposal that involves sending a buttload of vaccines to other countries, but yeah it's not over yet. I am thrilled by the US's rollout thus far, but I can only hope the global manufacturing machine will be able to help curb a major outbreak from starting yet again.
    On the flipside, we're making a LOT of vaccines. The main issue is distribution, which while difficult to overcome, is not "we require a unicorn hair for each batch".

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    I just heard of a new way of framing the "Should I get Vaccinated" question.

    Everyone will eventually get vaccinated. The default vaccine, the one you will eventually get if you opt to not get one of the others, has killed nearly 4 million of the 176 million people who got it (22 people out of every 1000) worldwide. It also has serious non-lethal side effects, generally making you feel really ill for a couple of weeks, with some effects lingering for over half a year. You can't predict when you will get it, so you can't plan around the down time. It's also not as effective as the other vaccines, especially against some of the new variants running around.
    Also of note is that the "default vaccine" has terribly inaccurate data about its efficiency and how long it lasts for, meanwhile the "actually a vaccine vaccine" has countless studies proving it has impressive efficacy and lasts for at least 6 months and counting.
    Last edited by Squire Doodad; 2021-06-17 at 11:12 PM.
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  20. - Top - End - #590
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Arkon View Post
    I wear glasses too, and I know, it can be a pain. My masks have trained me over the past year not ..... And I practiced. Often.
    As someone who has to wear safety glasses during physical labor during some parts of my work day. I can say I have yet to find a way to keep them clear of fog when wearing a mask. Am am deeply glad to be rid of the things. Plus i find them deeply uncomfortable in general.

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Squire Doodad View Post
    I believe the US has written up a proposal that involves sending a buttload of vaccines to other countries, but yeah it's not over yet. I am thrilled by the US's rollout thus far, but I can only hope the global manufacturing machine will be able to help curb a major outbreak from starting yet again.
    On the flipside, we're making a LOT of vaccines. The main issue is distribution, which while difficult to overcome, is not "we require a unicorn hair for each batch".
    The main problem with distribution is that the mRNA vaccines have to be kept really cold, which is a problem in a lot of countries. Most of the other issues can be solved, but that is the tricky one.
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Israel is back on masks!
    The number of positive test results is again in the triple digits, 227 out of 41331 tested in Thursday, in Sunday it was 48 out of 33972 tested. I know there was an outbreak in Binyamina and apparently there was signs of the Indian variant found in sewage water in Ashkelon, but a low number of confirmed cases by testing, so I guess there is some hidden outbreak.

    The mask mandate is only in closed spaces, and I'm not sure how much people will obey it. I saw some people wearing masks when there were talks of a new outbreak before the new mandate (it's from yesterday at noon). People are sick of masks and Israelis are not known for their civil obedience, but a lot of people wore masks some of the times they were supposed to wear them ("masks near strangers, not near friends" was roughly the common policy). The heat would also make people look for excuses not to wear masks. I'll see next week.

    I also heard a rumor that the vaccine doesn't help against the Indian variant, but haven't checked its validity. If it's true, we are screwed.
    Last edited by akma; 2021-06-26 at 03:02 AM.
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I also heard a rumor that the vaccine doesn't help against the Indian variant, but haven't checked its validity. If it's true, we are screwed.

    It's not.
    The vaccine has reduced effectiveness against the indian variant with only one jab - reduced, but not none - and works fine after two jabs.
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I have glasses and beard of the thick, bushy variety.

    Masks are pain the butt and i'm too stubborn to shave. I'm super happy restrictions are getting relaxed.

    Thankfully my province, myself included, is 70% vaccinated with the first shot. We're just waiting for the call for the second shot and no current active cases of the virus. horoay for being tiny!

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by LeSwordfish View Post

    It's not.
    The vaccine has reduced effectiveness against the indian variant with only one jab - reduced, but not none - and works fine after two jabs.
    Well, they're both reduced effectiveness by similar amounts, its just that people seem to have difficulty with the math of percent effectiveness - or at least there's some subjective thing about seeing percentages close to 100%. 93% -> 88% effectiveness means 7% breakthrough -> 12% breakthrough, so about 1.7x as many breakthroughs. 50% effective -> 33% effective means 50% breakthrough -> 67% breakthrough, or about 1.4x as many breakthroughs.

    So the two-jabs effectiveness is actually impacted more, relatively, than the one-jab effectiveness. But 88% effectiveness is still good, even if its less than 93%, and even 33% effectiveness is much better than 0%.

    Being nitpicky, but this is a bit of a pet peeve of mine seeing people really try to reduce these things to absolutes like 'oh, the vaccines make us immune, we can do anything we like now' or 'oh, the news is reporting that there were breakthrough cases, so the vaccines were useless'. What we need is for all stacking mitigating factors to reduce transmission by more than 1/R0 - vaccines, masks, distancing, closures, moving activities outdoors when possible, etc. So 93% -> 88% combined with a higher R0 for Delta is in fact bad news for us, but it also doesn't mean the vaccines suddenly don't work. It does however mean that we need to work a bit harder elsewhere if we want cases to keep going down, especially in places which are borderline. And if we don't get cases to go down globally, we'll keep seeing variants emerge that erode immune effectiveness bit by bit.
    Last edited by NichG; 2021-06-26 at 04:03 AM.

  26. - Top - End - #596
    Titan in the Playground
     
    DrowGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    People need to look out for COVID variants.
    It's time to get my Magikarp on!

  27. - Top - End - #597
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    Flumph

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Well we are back to masks here in my local area, for indoor spaces.

    As of this morning.

    In the last 90 minutes about 20 of the traffic we have had at my place has flat out refused to enter even when offered a free mask on general principal upon seeing our "masks required" signs. So i have been pulled out from working on some tangled customs redeclarations (due to delays timing out my previous ones) in order to soothe some flat annoyed people (who so far have all claimed to have had their jabs)

    This seems to have hit a point of frustration for a fair # of people esp travelers from LA who have had a mask mandate for a few days already....anyone from E Asia, Australia, etc who are going through their own spikes seeing this in your neck of the woods, or am I just dealing with some exceptionally bratty wealthy people?

    UPDATE: I'm just going to say that the new mask mandate is causing serious ire is some people. I am basically working as a health mandate notification worker, mask distributor, and bouncer today...complete with arguing 50 year old probably millionaires accusing each other of various things on the sidewalk/parking lot nearby. Even when I worked the retail floor I never saw it this bad...handing out copies of the county order has at least redirected some of this. Hopefully will calm down in a day or two as the news spreads but this the first time the pandemic people have gotten this irate with me at least. Anyone have decent sources of compliance rates in places like Israel with later reimposed mask mandates for vaccinated people?
    Last edited by sktarq; 2021-07-21 at 03:39 PM.

  28. - Top - End - #598
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by sktarq View Post
    Even when I worked the retail floor I never saw it this bad...handing out copies of the county order has at least redirected some of this.
    This seems reasonable. After all, you didn't make the policy. Perhaps they can go pen an angry letter or something.

    It's been floated near me, but there seems to be little appetite for it, particularly with infection rates significantly down. They are trending up a bit of late in MD, but still way down from the high points. People were hunkered down for as much as a year, there's just...lots of fatigue. Folks are kinda done with all the various mitigation plans. They've had the shots, now they want to do summer stuff.

    Is there some risk? Probably. Half a dozen vaccinated folks on one of those Texas legislature planes to DC all got covid, and once they landed, they spread it around to DC staffers and such, who were also vaccinated. So, at least with the variants, the vaccination appears to be less effective than reported. And ultimately, DC isn't *that* far from central MD.

    But I'm definitely still going to the beach. Life has risk, can't stop all of it.
    Last edited by Tyndmyr; 2021-07-22 at 03:23 PM.

  29. - Top - End - #599
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by sktarq View Post
    Anyone have decent sources of compliance rates in places like Israel with later reimposed mask mandates for vaccinated people?
    No statistics, but last week compliance seemed high from personal observations. This week I was sick, so I was only outside to get food, so I don't know.

  30. - Top - End - #600
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    Planetar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Well the news today is good for a given value of "good". Delta infection rates are down in the UK and in India . There's an interesting Twitter thread but he doesn't cite his sources. Still, some pretty graphs so it's readable.

    The bad news is we're not exactly sure WHY the decline is occurring.

    Is it because the heat is sending people outside?
    Is it because people are reacting to delta by getting vaccinated , finally?
    Is it because people are adjusting their behaviors, such as avoiding crowds?
    Or is it because the India version is so much more contagious and spreads so quickly that it's already burned through pretty much everyone susceptible to it? So while the ascent in cases is steep the drop off is equally radical, as an a flash flood.

    Lots of speculation. If anyone has thoughts, well, I'd love to hear them!

    ETA: Buried in a larger article , the BBC adds the following amusing speculation:

    Quote Originally Posted by BBC
    In Scotland, case numbers started falling earlier than in England - with some evidence the decline may have been triggered by the football team's exit from the Euro 2020 tournament, although the downward trend has continued since then.

    "There has been a lot of conversation about a football-related bounce in infections and whether we were seeing a wave-within-a-wave," said Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh.

    "In Scotland though it's now starting to look like it's a longer-term trend. We haven't seen any sign of cases picking up [since the football finished]".
    So the Scotland team may have saved lives by losing and sending everyone home

    Edited again to add:

    There's also this piece in the Atlantic , which suggests reassuring news from the front of vaccine research.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Atlantic
    The term correlate of protection doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but it’s one of the sexiest concepts in the field of vaccinology. Correlates are biological benchmarks—measurements of a single immune molecule or cell—that can show that a vaccine is achieving its desired effect. With a correlate in hand, researchers can confirm how well a shot is working and identify the rare individuals in whom it doesn’t take; they can suss out the need for boosters and fast-track the development of new vaccines. At their most powerful, correlates of protection boil down the complexities of an immune response to a single value—one that can confidently affirm that a person won’t get infected or seriously sick. “It’s kind of a magic number,” Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis, told me. “It’s the big holy grail,” Emory University’s Sri Edupuganti says. “It’s what we dream about,” Cornell’s Sallie Permar told me last month.

    In recent weeks, the correlate community has been buzzing louder than ever. Scientists are on the cusp of confidently defining some correlates of protection against symptomatic disease for the COVID-19 vaccines. If confirmed, these correlates could revolutionize the way we tackle SARS-CoV-2 immunization: Vaccine makers testing a new inoculation may no longer need to follow tens of thousands of people for many months to test their product’s protection. Instead, they could inject just a few hundred people, snag some drops of blood, and see if the elusive correlate is met. That’s how we tee up new flu vaccines every year without the rigmarole of gargantuan clinical trials.
    Which means that we can turn around a yearly booster shot , if necessary, just as we do for the seasonal flu. It would be nice IF we can reach this point, but as said we aren't there quite yet.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    Last edited by pendell; 2021-07-27 at 09:11 AM.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

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