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  1. - Top - End - #511
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    DwarfClericGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by comicshorse View Post
    Is that 40 % received both doses ?
    No, just single dose. 26% of the US has gotten both, so around 86 million people.

    65% of the 65+ age group is fully vaccinated, with about 80% having at least one dose.
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  2. - Top - End - #512
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    If ever. Vaccine hesitation plus delivery access may make it endemic in some regions, like polio is.

    And also depends on mutations that reduce vaccine efficacy that develop in unvaccinated areas.
    The question was when the pandemic would end, not when COVID would stop circulating.
    It may well become endemic to some locations, but that doesn't constitute a pandemic.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

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  3. - Top - End - #513
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    DwarfClericGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    The question was when the pandemic would end, not when COVID would stop circulating.
    It may well become endemic to some locations, but that doesn't constitute a pandemic.
    Depending on the location, the mutations in the endemic regions could allow it to return to pandemic status.

    That's my concern.
    Last edited by sihnfahl; 2021-04-21 at 01:02 PM.
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  4. - Top - End - #514
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Tvtyrant View Post
    Nah, we are trying to get second shots in fragile populations as much as possible. I think the UK strategy is probably better but this is where we are.
    Honestly not sure which is better. Fully vaccinating at risk people is certainly good, but getting as much resistance as possible out there is also nice. I suppose that's one for the researchers to poke at after this is all said and done. No doubt people will be studying covid for quite some time.

    That does somewhat lower the gap between the US and the UK, though, in terms of doses administered. US is currently climbing at approximately .4% of the pop per day.

    Chile is having some problems despite their high vaccination rates. Big surge. This might, in part, be due to variant disease strains there, Brazil being not far off, that strain hit them early. They're also mainly relying on the Chinese vaccine, CoronaVac, which is not used in most countries due to much lower efficacy. That combination isn't great. They are using Pfizer as well where they can get it, but availability isn't infinite.

  5. - Top - End - #515
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    Honestly not sure which is better. Fully vaccinating at risk people is certainly good, but getting as much resistance as possible out there is also nice. I suppose that's one for the researchers to poke at after this is all said and done. No doubt people will be studying covid for quite some time.
    I think it's timing dependent. The slower the vaccine rollout is, the more benefit to spreading out the doses because it means spending less time with an R above 1, so it has an exponentially compounding effect. But if the rollout is fast compared to the growth rate of cases then it doesn't have long to compound and so the high demographic variation in IFR would be a bigger effect.

  6. - Top - End - #516
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    So, uh, fun news. The Ft Meade, Maryland mass vax site, managed to leave a bunch of vaccine doses out for a coupla days, which makes them, yknow, not work. Then they gave them to about 800 people. Long story short, if you got vaccinated there in the 12th-17th timeframe, you may want to call them.

    Nobody has apparently gotten sick or anything so far as they know, but those people probably need to redo their vax to be sure it works.

    Not sure if this has happened elsewhere. Missed the window by a couple of days myself.

  7. - Top - End - #517
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    Flumph

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Well a few fun things.
    Firstly India is getting scary, enough so that it very much proves we are not out of the woods by any means and that until vaccine numbers are way up we may be relaxing too soon.
    Especially as the new Bengal strain is still a VOI but has so little data. It has some worrisome markers for vaccines which while not a certain crisis is concerning.


    and of course the vaccination rates that some prefer to use as a potential demand side limit marker... Well It seems to be here.

    As for Maryland forgetting to but the damn vax in the fridge.....well at least it wasn't saline? But this kind of rooster-up is to be expected eventually. Enough mass-sites, enough days, mistakes will happen. Just as long as they get caught. (though don't they have some temp sensitive mark on them to tell if they went bad? I know polio drops have little targets on them that when the white part goes dark means they got cooked....I figured Covid vaccines would travel with something similar.
    Last edited by sktarq; 2021-04-26 at 05:45 PM.

  8. - Top - End - #518
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    Lizardfolk

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    If the rate in India keeps up they are looking at 2.5 million new cases a week and 50,000 dead.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
    Vibranium: If it was on the periodic table, its chemical symbol would be "Bs".

  9. - Top - End - #519
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Yeah, India is...having a hard time of it. That population density is just so high, it's really hard to fight it. That's an insanely strong factor in how dangerous pandemics are, and India has that plus a few other factors that make it messy to deal with. That graph looks really ugly right now.

  10. - Top - End - #520
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Welp, I re-ran the analysis from before. Now only 10 states aren't consistently slowing down in their vaccination rates.

    I wonder what the vaccine uptake rate is for people who have already had Covid versus not. The more lopsided that is, the more the 10% who have already had Covid contribute additively to total immunity.

  11. - Top - End - #521
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    No idea, but that is an excellent question. Ideally, we hit all the unaffected people first, but that's certainly not perfectly the case.

    New cases/day are still falling overall, at least in the US, though. Things are gettin' better. We just had the lowest new cases per day since like...June.

  12. - Top - End - #522
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    No idea, but that is an excellent question. Ideally, we hit all the unaffected people first, but that's certainly not perfectly the case.

    New cases/day are still falling overall, at least in the US, though. Things are gettin' better. We just had the lowest new cases per day since like...June.
    Increasing/holding steady where I am, but I'm also in one of the states that's not slowing down the vaccination rate quite yet, so... Current levels here are about half the wave 3 peak and about 50% higher than the wave 2 peak. Even after Moderna dose 2 I'm going to want levels to drop by a factor of about 50 before I'll consider indoor dining around here.
    Last edited by NichG; 2021-05-03 at 04:37 PM.

  13. - Top - End - #523
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    Lizardfolk

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I got my Pfizer 1 on Saturday and it is awful. Number two is going to be horrendous, I can already tell.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
    Vibranium: If it was on the periodic table, its chemical symbol would be "Bs".

  14. - Top - End - #524
    Orc in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I got my 2nd Pfizer shot last Tuesday, which I forgot to mention because I went to bed almost immediately after getting the shot and Wednesday was miserable (mostly body aches with a smattering of feeling too hot/cold.) Thursday started on the rougher side but I was back to normal by the afternoon. All in all, not too bad considering some of the stories I've heard!

    I do wonder if my response being on the milder side (for both the first and second injections) is due to having a weakened immune system due to some meds I take. I hope it doesn't impact the vaccine's effectiveness, since a stronger response is supposed to be indicative of your body preparing for the virus better.
    The New Soulknife Handbook!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mercenary Pen View Post
    And there I was thinking that Midichlorian counts were a variety of force-sensitive hereditary noble- most notably Dooku.

  15. - Top - End - #525
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Battleship789 View Post
    I got my 2nd Pfizer shot last Tuesday, which I forgot to mention because I went to bed almost immediately after getting the shot and Wednesday was miserable (mostly body aches with a smattering of feeling too hot/cold.) Thursday started on the rougher side but I was back to normal by the afternoon. All in all, not too bad considering some of the stories I've heard!

    I do wonder if my response being on the milder side (for both the first and second injections) is due to having a weakened immune system due to some meds I take. I hope it doesn't impact the vaccine's effectiveness, since a stronger response is supposed to be indicative of your body preparing for the virus better.
    Heh a reason to be happy about my two weeks of intermittent nausea and dizziness (from the Astra Zenneca vaccine for the record)
    All Comicshorse's posts come with the advisor : This is just my opinion any difficulties arising from implementing my ideas are your own problem

  16. - Top - End - #526
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    ElfRangerGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Tvtyrant View Post
    I got my Pfizer 1 on Saturday and it is awful. Number two is going to be horrendous, I can already tell.
    Then you're one of the unlucky ones unfortunately. My dad had his Pfizer 1 last week and he only had a sore arm for a day or so. He's already looking forward to his second one. Well, actually he's looking forward to being able to travel again.
    Clacks-Overhead: GNU Terry Pratchett

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  17. - Top - End - #527
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Battleship789 View Post
    I got my 2nd Pfizer shot last Tuesday, which I forgot to mention because I went to bed almost immediately after getting the shot and Wednesday was miserable (mostly body aches with a smattering of feeling too hot/cold.) Thursday started on the rougher side but I was back to normal by the afternoon. All in all, not too bad considering some of the stories I've heard!
    Not shabby at all. First Moderna shot was a cakewalk for me, almost nothing. The second....miserable full body aches to the point of being unable to sleep.

    Everyone I know that took the J&J said that one was a bit rough as well, most took several days off from work.

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