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  1. - Top - End - #631
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    Griffon

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Sometimes, people are just silly.

    Authorities in north Germany have asked more than 8,000 people to get repeat Covid vaccinations because a nurse is suspected of having injected saline instead of vaccine in many cases.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58186032
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

  2. - Top - End - #632
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    DwarfClericGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    Sometimes, people are just silly.
    Or malicious. Remember this kid?
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  3. - Top - End - #633
    Ogre in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I won't go into specifics on recent policy updates relating to COVID (good ones mostly), but I have unrelated good news
    After falling off in May, vaccination rates have been slowly climbing over the last few months, and the US in particular broke a million in a day for the first time since like June. Really glad about that.
    On one hand, about 40% of people have received at least one dose. But, as unfortunately expected, only about 2% of people in low-income countries have at least one dose.
    Hopefully there'll be some sort of concerted effort to start shifting more towards vaccinating, you know, the entire world? There's also research underway about a whole bunch of things related to COVID including an easier to transport vaccine, which would help a lot in getting that 2% up.
    Last edited by Squire Doodad; 2021-09-09 at 11:29 PM.
    An explanation of why MitD being any larger than Huge is implausible.

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  4. - Top - End - #634
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I would urge people in more privileged countries to get vaccinated. I feel that until their population has been fully vaccinated then will those vaccines get to those under priviledged countries.

  5. - Top - End - #635
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    warmachine's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    The big problem with transporting vaccines is the storage temperature. The mRNA technology behind BioNTech and Moderna has been in development for years and I'd be surprised if anyone can work out how to shift it above dry ice and freezer temperatures so quickly. Oxford, Janssen, and Sputnik V use older technology with refrigerator temperatures and I'd be even more surprised if they can be shifted to room temperature. So, the Third World need fleets of refrigerated lorries and GP surgeries with reliable electricity. I think most can achieve that.
    Matthew Greet
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  6. - Top - End - #636
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    also what happened in my country, a batch of pfizer vaccines basically went bad because of poor storage conditions.

    The moderna and J&J ones seems able to handle normal vaccine refrigiration while pfizer needs special refrigiration methods

  7. - Top - End - #637
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    DwarfClericGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by anjxed View Post
    The moderna and J&J ones seems able to handle normal vaccine refrigiration while pfizer needs special refrigiration methods
    Moderna and J&J are best stored between 2 and 8 Centigrade.

    Whereas Pfizer is -90 to -60C.

    And with Moderna looking to offer the better protection compared to J&J to the new variants, it might be the go-to for international efforts.

    Even then, though, is just getting to remote areas AND coordination... which I said a long time ago.
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  8. - Top - End - #638
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    DrowGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    We are living in a real-life science fiction movie that has become a reality to this damn virus. I just found out early this morning in Facebook Messenger that one of my friend's grandmothers passed away from COVID.
    It's time to get my Magikarp on!

  9. - Top - End - #639
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    Lord Torath's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    This one seems appropriate: xkcd: Vaccine Research. Sadly, most people 'researching' the vaccines online aren't hitting the medical studies.
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  10. - Top - End - #640
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    Planetar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    We are living in a real-life science fiction movie that has become a reality to this damn virus. I just found out early this morning in Facebook Messenger that one of my friend's grandmothers passed away from COVID.
    Blast! My sympathies. Small wonder so many are losing patience with those who won't get vaccinated.

    Case in point: the Man who died of a heart condition because he couldn't get into an ICU . He went to 43 of them. 43. They were all full of covid patients, almost all of whom were unvaccinated.


    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
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  11. - Top - End - #641
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    Peelee's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    Blast! My sympathies. Small wonder so many are losing patience with those who won't get vaccinated.

    Case in point: the Man who died of a heart condition because he couldn't get into an ICU . He went to 43 of them. 43. They were all full of covid patients, almost all of whom were unvaccinated.


    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    He did not go to 43. He went to Cullman hospital, and the staff there contacted 44 other facilities that could provide the care he needed. 43 were unable to take him in, and he was transported to teh 44th, where he passed away. Tiny nitpick that doesn't really change anything, but still.

    Also, significantly better link which doesn't try to autoplay any videos and just has less invasive/annoying site design in general : https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ty-ray-demonia
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  12. - Top - End - #642
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    DrowGuy

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    My older brother got his first vaccination today. I'm very proud of him.
    It's time to get my Magikarp on!

  13. - Top - End - #643
    Ogre in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    My older brother got his first vaccination today. I'm very proud of him.
    Ayyyy, congrats! That's awesome!

    Small reminder to keep on wearing a mask when in public since Delta spreads like crazy.
    An explanation of why MitD being any larger than Huge is implausible.

    See my extended signature here! May contain wit, candor, and somewhere from 52 to 8127 walruses.

    Purple is humorous descriptions made up on the fly
    Green is serious talk about hypothetical
    Blue is irony and sarcasm


    "I think, therefore I am,
    I walk, therefore I stand,
    I sleep, therefore I dream;
    I joke, therefore I meme."
    -Squire Doodad

  14. - Top - End - #644
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Squire Doodad View Post
    I won't go into specifics on recent policy updates relating to COVID (good ones mostly), but I have unrelated good news
    After falling off in May, vaccination rates have been slowly climbing over the last few months, and the US in particular broke a million in a day for the first time since like June. Really glad about that.
    On one hand, about 40% of people have received at least one dose. But, as unfortunately expected, only about 2% of people in low-income countries have at least one dose.
    Hopefully there'll be some sort of concerted effort to start shifting more towards vaccinating, you know, the entire world? There's also research underway about a whole bunch of things related to COVID including an easier to transport vaccine, which would help a lot in getting that 2% up.
    Looks like it's still only about 2% for the low income countries. They're likely to lag high income countries by...quite a lot. Even with sustained efforts, the sheer amount of population and the transportation logistics are daunting. Being in a high income country with a lot of infrastructure in place is handy when unexpected events arise.

    Even here, accidents definitely happened. My vax site accidentally let a bunch spoil, and then, not knowing, injected them into a bunch of people. Fortunately, I missed that batch by a couple of days. Best as I know, nobody died or anything from that, they just had to redo it. Could be worse.

    Unfortunately, the data out of Israel indicates that herd immunity is fairly unlikely. A 41% reduction in symptomatic disease ain't nothing, but it's certainly not enough to push R below 1, even with a 100% vaccination rate. It *does* seem to significantly improve individual outcomes with regards to survival rates and what not, but transmission largely happens early on, when you don't yet know you're sick. Thus, improved individual outcomes are unlikely to have a big effect on herd immunity.

    Perhaps, and this is speculative, a vaccine that targets more than a single spike is needed. Only one avenue of attack is fairly easy for a disease to mutate resistance to, and with many variants already existing, well, efficacy suffers. This isn't a knock on the initial attempts...speed is also a factor, and there are inherent tradeoffs between speed and complexity. Still, vaccines are apparently falling far short of the initially promised performance.

  15. - Top - End - #645
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    Looks like it's still only about 2% for the low income countries. They're likely to lag high income countries by...quite a lot. Even with sustained efforts, the sheer amount of population and the transportation logistics are daunting. Being in a high income country with a lot of infrastructure in place is handy when unexpected events arise.

    Even here, accidents definitely happened. My vax site accidentally let a bunch spoil, and then, not knowing, injected them into a bunch of people. Fortunately, I missed that batch by a couple of days. Best as I know, nobody died or anything from that, they just had to redo it. Could be worse.

    Unfortunately, the data out of Israel indicates that herd immunity is fairly unlikely. A 41% reduction in symptomatic disease ain't nothing, but it's certainly not enough to push R below 1, even with a 100% vaccination rate. It *does* seem to significantly improve individual outcomes with regards to survival rates and what not, but transmission largely happens early on, when you don't yet know you're sick. Thus, improved individual outcomes are unlikely to have a big effect on herd immunity.

    Perhaps, and this is speculative, a vaccine that targets more than a single spike is needed. Only one avenue of attack is fairly easy for a disease to mutate resistance to, and with many variants already existing, well, efficacy suffers. This isn't a knock on the initial attempts...speed is also a factor, and there are inherent tradeoffs between speed and complexity. Still, vaccines are apparently falling far short of the initially promised performance.
    The interesting thing to me is that delta seems to not be taking an 'evade immunity' approach so much as an approach based on changing the profile of virus production and distribution, e.g. producing 1000x as much virus early on (presumably at the cost of triggering the host immune response sooner and losing out on spread during a long induction period). Whereas other variants lack that early pulse production, but have changes which are better than delta at evading immunity. A combination of both would be worse for us, but if e.g. we got a variant which evaded the existing immunity well enough that it out-produced delta, maybe it could displace delta's high-production strategy. Though I don't know what cross immunity between variants would look like in that case...

    Anyhow, I guess the point is, we can fairly easily print new mRNA vaccines for variants - that's the cool thing about that technology - but there's not as much we can do about the virus changing its lifecycle towards being infectious earlier. So it'd be better to have a bunch of variants which change their shape to evade the vaccines as opposed to variants which evolve in a way that makes transmission inherently less sensitive to the state of the host's immune response.

  16. - Top - End - #646
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    Perhaps, and this is speculative, a vaccine that targets more than a single spike is needed. Only one avenue of attack is fairly easy for a disease to mutate resistance to, and with many variants already existing, well, efficacy suffers. This isn't a knock on the initial attempts...speed is also a factor, and there are inherent tradeoffs between speed and complexity. Still, vaccines are apparently falling far short of the initially promised performance.
    If memory serves, there are studies on the effectiveness of mixing vaccinations (so say Pfizer 1st, then Moderna after 10-12 weeks).

  17. - Top - End - #647
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Storm_Of_Snow View Post
    If memory serves, there are studies on the effectiveness of mixing vaccinations (so say Pfizer 1st, then Moderna after 10-12 weeks).
    All current vaccines rely on targeting the spike protein alone, IIRC. Therefore, we shouldn't expect to see huge protection gains from mixing and matching.

    Booster studies are goin' on, and some of the data here appears a bit contentious, though even here, most seem to be reccomending againsta mix and match approach for booster vaccines. I've seen some suggestion of a rNa booster for the one shot vaxes*, but most combinations just don't have a ton of data/studies yet. I wouldn't *expect* any particularly bad interactions from doing so, because the original vax has long since left your system, all you're really doing is stimulating antibody production...but without actual tests from professionals, I probably wouldn't try it myself.

    That said, there is at least a small subculture that has already been getting additional vaccinations by creative means(often crossing state borders and pretending to be unvaxxed) and they don't *seem* to have had any severe known problems yet.

    *shrug*

    Lack of information is an ongoing confounding factor. For instance, if we take the CDC's data literally, we already beat the first covid wave, and almost all of the illness across the US is now caused by Delta, which originated outside the US and wasn't recorded here until March. So, basically a second pandemic swept across the entire country unslowed by vaccinations. If they are correct, vaccines are...immensely useless in stopping the spread, even if they help for outcomes.

    The reason to doubt this is that there is no test to distinguish delta from any other strain of covid. Sure, the CDC has other methods available(genomic sequencing), but all the broadly available testing isn't able to tell what flavor you have, just that you popped positive for covid of some kind. That greatly reduces available data, and correspondingly increases risk of error. Perhaps prevalence of delta varies significantly from the 93% believed. We can't reasonably sequence the genome for every single patient, hell, we're short on even the basic testing kits now. "Vax or test" mandates cause high test usage among people who are unlikely to be ill, and supply chains are still playing catchup a bit, so test availability is somewhat spotty.

    So, while it's most definitely interesting to theorize, I am a little bit hesitant to make any sort of bold claims. If you dig through journals, you get a lot of conflicting stuff(Lancet recently published a study advising against boosters altogether, for instance, but there's support for it elsewhere). I'm sure it'll all shake out eventually, but attempting to project too strongly based on incomplete data has bitten us a few times.

    *J&J, Astrazeneca. I'm less familiar with the Chinese vaccinations, etc, more so the US/European strategies.

  18. - Top - End - #648
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    warmachine's Avatar

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    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I don't think a vaccine to expose the immune system to multiple virus proteins is necessary because it's already happening, meaning we're already being exposed to the various proteins of real Covid particles. Delta variant is so contagious, it's practically unstoppable, with New Zealand looking to be only exception, and repeated exposure to it is simply unavoidable. The single spike protein was chosen because it's needed to stick to cells and a mutation in that renders the virus non-infectious. So far, it looks like the scientists got it right and Delta only achieves vaccine escape by infecting and retransmitting before an already primed immune system can gear up and purge it.

    It also means boosters aren't needed, except for those with poor immune systems, as the immune system gets repeated reminders. Endemic equilibrium. Like seasonal flue. Only nastier.
    Matthew Greet
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