This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

[Strigon]

If ever. Vaccine hesitation plus delivery access may make it endemic in some regions, like polio is.

And also depends on mutations that reduce vaccine efficacy that develop in unvaccinated areas.

The question was when the pandemic would end, not when COVID would stop circulating.
It may well become endemic to some locations, but that doesn't constitute a pandemic.

[sihnfahl]

The question was when the pandemic would end, not when COVID would stop circulating.
It may well become endemic to some locations, but that doesn't constitute a pandemic.

Depending on the location, the mutations in the endemic regions could allow it to return to pandemic status.

That's my concern.

[Tyndmyr]

Nah, we are trying to get second shots in fragile populations as much as possible. I think the UK strategy is probably better but this is where we are.

Honestly not sure which is better. Fully vaccinating at risk people is certainly good, but getting as much resistance as possible out there is also nice. I suppose that's one for the researchers to poke at after this is all said and done. No doubt people will be studying covid for quite some time.

That does somewhat lower the gap between the US and the UK, though, in terms of doses administered. US is currently climbing at approximately .4% of the pop per day.

Chile is having some problems despite their high vaccination rates. Big surge. This might, in part, be due to variant disease strains there, Brazil being not far off, that strain hit them early. They're also mainly relying on the Chinese vaccine, CoronaVac, which is not used in most countries due to much lower efficacy. That combination isn't great. They are using Pfizer as well where they can get it, but availability isn't infinite.

[NichG]

Honestly not sure which is better. Fully vaccinating at risk people is certainly good, but getting as much resistance as possible out there is also nice. I suppose that's one for the researchers to poke at after this is all said and done. No doubt people will be studying covid for quite some time.

I think it's timing dependent. The slower the vaccine rollout is, the more benefit to spreading out the doses because it means spending less time with an R above 1, so it has an exponentially compounding effect. But if the rollout is fast compared to the growth rate of cases then it doesn't have long to compound and so the high demographic variation in IFR would be a bigger effect.

[Tyndmyr]

So, uh, fun news. The Ft Meade, Maryland mass vax site, managed to leave a bunch of vaccine doses out for a coupla days, which makes them, yknow, not work. Then they gave them to about 800 people. Long story short, if you got vaccinated there in the 12th-17th timeframe, you may want to call them.

Nobody has apparently gotten sick or anything so far as they know, but those people probably need to redo their vax to be sure it works.

Not sure if this has happened elsewhere. Missed the window by a couple of days myself.

[sktarq]

Well a few fun things.
Firstly India is getting scary, enough so that it very much proves we are not out of the woods by any means and that until vaccine numbers are way up we may be relaxing too soon.
Especially as the new Bengal strain is still a VOI but has so little data. It has some worrisome markers for vaccines which while not a certain crisis is concerning.


and of course the vaccination rates that some prefer to use as a potential demand side limit marker... Well It seems to be here.

As for Maryland forgetting to but the damn vax in the fridge.....well at least it wasn't saline? But this kind of rooster-up is to be expected eventually. Enough mass-sites, enough days, mistakes will happen. Just as long as they get caught. (though don't they have some temp sensitive mark on them to tell if they went bad? I know polio drops have little targets on them that when the white part goes dark means they got cooked....I figured Covid vaccines would travel with something similar.

[Tvtyrant]

If the rate in India keeps up they are looking at 2.5 million new cases a week and 50,000 dead.

[Tyndmyr]

Yeah, India is...having a hard time of it. That population density is just so high, it's really hard to fight it. That's an insanely strong factor in how dangerous pandemics are, and India has that plus a few other factors that make it messy to deal with. That graph looks really ugly right now.

[NichG]

Welp, I re-ran the analysis from before. Now only 10 states aren't consistently slowing down in their vaccination rates.

I wonder what the vaccine uptake rate is for people who have already had Covid versus not. The more lopsided that is, the more the 10% who have already had Covid contribute additively to total immunity.

[Tyndmyr]

No idea, but that is an excellent question. Ideally, we hit all the unaffected people first, but that's certainly not perfectly the case.

New cases/day are still falling overall, at least in the US, though. Things are gettin' better. We just had the lowest new cases per day since like...June.

[NichG]

No idea, but that is an excellent question. Ideally, we hit all the unaffected people first, but that's certainly not perfectly the case.

New cases/day are still falling overall, at least in the US, though. Things are gettin' better. We just had the lowest new cases per day since like...June.

Increasing/holding steady where I am, but I'm also in one of the states that's not slowing down the vaccination rate quite yet, so... Current levels here are about half the wave 3 peak and about 50% higher than the wave 2 peak. Even after Moderna dose 2 I'm going to want levels to drop by a factor of about 50 before I'll consider indoor dining around here.

[Tvtyrant]

I got my Pfizer 1 on Saturday and it is awful. Number two is going to be horrendous, I can already tell.

[Battleship789]

I got my 2nd Pfizer shot last Tuesday, which I forgot to mention because I went to bed almost immediately after getting the shot and Wednesday was miserable (mostly body aches with a smattering of feeling too hot/cold.) Thursday started on the rougher side but I was back to normal by the afternoon. All in all, not too bad considering some of the stories I've heard!

I do wonder if my response being on the milder side (for both the first and second injections) is due to having a weakened immune system due to some meds I take. I hope it doesn't impact the vaccine's effectiveness, since a stronger response is supposed to be indicative of your body preparing for the virus better.

[comicshorse]

I got my 2nd Pfizer shot last Tuesday, which I forgot to mention because I went to bed almost immediately after getting the shot and Wednesday was miserable (mostly body aches with a smattering of feeling too hot/cold.) Thursday started on the rougher side but I was back to normal by the afternoon. All in all, not too bad considering some of the stories I've heard!

I do wonder if my response being on the milder side (for both the first and second injections) is due to having a weakened immune system due to some meds I take. I hope it doesn't impact the vaccine's effectiveness, since a stronger response is supposed to be indicative of your body preparing for the virus better.

Heh a reason to be happy about my two weeks of intermittent nausea and dizziness (from the Astra Zenneca vaccine for the record)

[farothel]

I got my Pfizer 1 on Saturday and it is awful. Number two is going to be horrendous, I can already tell.

Then you're one of the unlucky ones unfortunately. My dad had his Pfizer 1 last week and he only had a sore arm for a day or so. He's already looking forward to his second one. Well, actually he's looking forward to being able to travel again.

[Tyndmyr]

I got my 2nd Pfizer shot last Tuesday, which I forgot to mention because I went to bed almost immediately after getting the shot and Wednesday was miserable (mostly body aches with a smattering of feeling too hot/cold.) Thursday started on the rougher side but I was back to normal by the afternoon. All in all, not too bad considering some of the stories I've heard!

Not shabby at all. First Moderna shot was a cakewalk for me, almost nothing. The second....miserable full body aches to the point of being unable to sleep.

Everyone I know that took the J&J said that one was a bit rough as well, most took several days off from work.

[Strigon]

Just got home from my first Moderna shot. Will report back tomorrow on side effects, strength of microchip signal.

[comicshorse]

Just got home from my first Moderna shot. Will report back tomorrow on side effects, strength of microchip signal.

No need, we can monitor your vitals from the command bunker.

Er......................I never said that

Bye !

[Strigon]

Well, I felt about an hour more tired than usual in the evening (7:00 felt like 8:00, 8:00 felt like 9:00, and so on).
When I woke up, I had a sort of hard-to-quantify "blech" feeling, and my arm's a bit sore if I stretch, or put pressure on, the injection site.

All in all, if I just woke up like this without getting a shot, I wouldn't think anything particularly amiss. Maybe that I slept the wrong way or pushed myself too hard yesterday.

[Kantaki]

Well, I felt about an hour more tired than usual in the evening (7:00 felt like 8:00, 8:00 felt like 9:00, and so on).
When I woke up, I had a sort of hard-to-quantify "blech" feeling, and my arm's a bit sore if I stretch, or put pressure on, the injection site.

All in all, if I just woke up like this without getting a shot, I wouldn't think anything particularly amiss. Maybe that I slept the wrong way or pushed myself too hard yesterday.

Pretty much my experience.
Now the second shot, that was fun.
Ice cold hands in the evening, starting the next morning with a "Yeah, no, getting up bad" followed a spontaneous nap later by a "why is it afternoon already?".

Oh well, better than actually getting sick.
Also, I might've... accelerated the whole mess by basically going full power after the shot.
("Hey, the weather is nice. I'm gonna walk home." Shopping for a birthday gift. "Oh, it's still early in the day. I could play some RingFit* and finally "Huh, almost 3x my daily goal for walked steps. Should be easy enough."

In retrospect I don't think it made the reaction worse, but less enthusiasm might've been a good idea.

*Exercise video game.

[pendell]

Saw an article from MIT's technology review , explaining why the author doesn't fear COVID variants.

1. Vaccines work, even against troublesome variants

In lab tests, antibodies from vaccinated individuals couldn’t neutralize the virus as effectively as they could the original virus. But real-world data out of Qatar suggests that the Pfizer vaccine works quite well, even against B.1.351. Full vaccination offered 75% protection against B.1.351 infections; that’s less than the 95% efficacy reported in the trials for the original virus but still “a miracle,” says Andrew Read, a disease ecologist at Pennsylvania State University. “These vaccines are so good. We’ve got so much room to play with.”

2. The immune response is robust

3. . When vaccinated people do get infected, the shots protect against the worst outcomes

A vaccine that can block infection is wonderful. But “the most important thing is to keep people out of the hospital and out of the ground,” says Friedrich. And there’s good evidence that the current vaccines do exactly that. In South Africa, one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine provided 85% protection against covid-19-related hospitalizations and deaths. At the time, 95% of cases were caused by the B.1.351 variant. In Israel, where B.1.1.7 has become the dominant strain, two doses of Pfizer offered 97% protection against symptomatic covid-19 and hospitalizations linked to covid-19.

4. The same mutations keep popping up

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, the mutations that improve the virus keep popping up in different parts of the globe, a phenomenon known as convergent evolution. “We are seeing the same combinations evolving over and over and over again,” says Vaughn Cooper, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Pittsburgh. Imagine a game of Tetris, Cooper writes in a recent story for Scientific American. “A limited number of building blocks can be assembled in different ways, in different combinations, to achieve the same winning structures.”

Cooper and some other researchers see this evidence of convergent evolution as a hopeful sign: the virus may be running out of new ways to adapt to the current environment. “It’s actually a small deck of cards right now,” he says. “If we can control infections, that deck of cards is going to remain small.”

5. If the effectiveness of the vaccines begins to wane, we can make booster shots.

I suspect we'll probably have yearly shots against it, the same as we currently have against the flu. It wasn't like the flu when all this started, but hopefully it will reach that end state where it's just a yearly nuisance rather than a catastrophe.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Strigon]

Saw an article from MIT's technology review , explaining why the author doesn't fear COVID variants.



I suspect we'll probably have yearly shots against it, the same as we currently have against the flu. It wasn't like the flu when all this started, but hopefully it will reach that end state where it's just a yearly nuisance rather than a catastrophe.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

That is good news.
While I wasn't terribly worried about the current variants, I certainly did wonder about what would happen when those variants underwent mutations of their own. If the virus is only making a small number of real changes, then that certainly bodes well for the future.

[Bartmanhomer]

I heard that we don't need to wear masks anymore once we're fully vaccinated in some places.

[Keltest]

I heard that we don't need to wear masks anymore once we're fully vaccinated in some places.

This is starting to become accurate, but if youre planning to go out, bring your mask with you. Most states that cared to begin with are still allowing smaller localities to set their own stricter rules, and theres a decent chance a given business might still require masks even if your state or town does not.

[Bartmanhomer]

This is starting to become accurate, but if you're planning to go out, bring your mask with you. Most states that cared, to begin with, are still allowing smaller localities to set their own stricter rules, and there's a decent chance a given business might still require masks even if your state or town does not.

I'm still wearing my mask and I'm fully vaccinated already.

[NichG]

~24 hours after Moderna dose #2, still no detectable side-effects. I'm almost disappointed, I had stocked up supplies for having a lazy day where I was expecting to be totally out of it...

[comicshorse]

36 hours after dose 2 of the Astra Zenneca and I have the energy to do something other than stare at the ceiling listlessly. I have hardly ever felt so drained in my life, not sleepy just zero energy.
On the bright side, no fever, chills, sore arm or nausea or dizziness (touch wood)

[DavidSh]

After my second Pfizer shot, I had some soreness in the shoulder, but overall slightly less side effects than the first shot. If I had been in a clinical trial, I would have assumed I was in the control group. Age 59, if that matters.

[pendell]

Looks like we've got a bad actor

Several French social media influencers say they have received a mysterious financial offer to spread negative publicity about the Pfizer vaccine.

They say an agency claiming to be based in the UK has contacted them by email offering a "partnership".

Léo Grasset, who has 1.17m YouTube subscribers, tweeted (in French) that a "colossal budget" was promised from a client "who wants to remain incognito".

He said that the address the agency had given appeared to be bogus.

...

Léo Grasset posted what he said were instructions from the agency, urging him not to use such words as "advertising" or "sponsored video" if he were to agree to the partnership offer.

"Present the material as your own independent view," the email said.

It also asked him to spread among his followers a false claim that the death rate among the vaccinated by Pfizer is almost three times higher than among those who have received AstraZeneca.

Several other French social media influencers, all of whom are involved in the health and science field, said they had been contacted with a similar offer.

Et Ça Se Dit Médecin, a hospital intern with more than 85,000 Instagram followers, told France's BFMTV that he was offered €2,050 ($2,510; £1,775) for a 30-second story on his account.

Meanwhile, French Health Minister Olivier Véran told BFMTV: "I do not know where this [partnership offer] comes from, from France or abroad. "It is pathetic, it is dangerous, it is irresponsible and it does not work."

I can only assume from this that someone is willfully trying to get Europeans killed. You can read the article for ideas as to who this might be, but forum rules prohibit such speculation. But I don't believe the rules prevent me from acknowledging the fact that anti-vax is not just a random collection of kooks on the internet; it is a sophisticated propaganda effort , and our gullible friends are victims thereof.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Tyndmyr]

Anyone can promise ludicrous money on the internet, following through is the hard part. This could indeed just be some random kooks.

If it's any comfort, for the UK, it's unlikely to matter, as they're practically immune as it currently stands. The seven day average death count for them is down to...6. And as deaths normally are a lagging indicator behind infections, we can expect that to continue to drop. So a bit of misinformation more or less at this point is pretty unlikely to matter.