This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

[NichG]

.......uh......

Damn. Alright, my information was badly out of date on that then.

[georgie_leech]

Damn. Alright, my information was badly out of date on that then.

It was going so well for so long, but alas, antivaxxers have regrettable effects.

[Rogar Demonblud]

That's a dead link. It just kicks up an error page.

[sihnfahl]

Damn. Alright, my information was badly out of date on that then.

Well, if you want to catch up:

CDC Measles info

"From January 1 to December 31, 2019, 1,282* individual cases of measles were confirmed in 31 states."

"As of November 30, 2020, there have been 13 confirmed cases in 8 jurisdictions.*"

Enjoy the bar graph.

If COVID goes the same way...

[georgie_leech]

That's a dead link. It just kicks up an error page.

It works in my post? But in case the formatting is doing something weird, it should be pointing to here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measle..._United_States

[Forum Explorer]

It was going so well for so long, but alas, antivaxxers have regrettable effects.

It is the absolute best argument that antivaxxers are an actual threat to society. Measles were solved. They had declared in eradicated and now in 2019 they had over a thousand cases of measles.

[monomer]

OK but in the UK we will be extensively using the Oxford vaccine which is, I believe, 70 % effective. Where does that leave us ?

The high level equation to determine the percent of immune population required herd immunity is: P = 1 - (1/R)

So say R = 2, 50% of the population would require immunization. At 70% effectiveness for the Oxford vaccine, 71% of the population would have to be vaccinated to render herd immunity.
Now if R = 4, 75% of the population would need to be immune, which would require, uhhh, 107% of the population to be vaccinated. Luckily, we have vaccines that are >90% effective, so with a combined use this isn't an impossibility.

Finding out the actual (or at least most likely) R0 is incredibly frustrating as sources seem to be conflating R0 (basic reproduction number) and Rt (effective reproduction number which includes mitigating measures), so reported R numbers seem to be anywhere between 1 and 6, with credible R0 being around 3. This would require 66.7% of the population to be immune, or 95% of the population to be vaccinated if Oxford is the only vaccine widely available.

[Tvtyrant]

Well, if you want to catch up:

CDC Measles info

"From January 1 to December 31, 2019, 1,282* individual cases of measles were confirmed in 31 states."

"As of November 30, 2020, there have been 13 confirmed cases in 8 jurisdictions.*"

Enjoy the bar graph.

If COVID goes the same way...

Then we still reduced it from casualties on par with warfare to a tiny amount of annual deaths? It's like the people who object to seatbelts because it only prevents 90% of automobile fatalities.

[Rogar Demonblud]

The point is that we were well below even those limited numbers. The disease is making a comeback because of the antivaxxers.

[NichG]

Measles has an R0 of around 10, so the herd immunity threshold for Measles is 90% coverage; or with a 97% effective vaccine, you need about 94% coverage. So keeping those numbers below deaths comparable to a war requires nearly everyone to be working together towards that end - a small amount of counter-action can ruin it.

We had that kind of unity in the past. I wonder if there's a way to get back there again.

[sktarq]

When people could remember getting measles, and could see a good reason for NOT having their kid go through that....helped.

And lots of the Anti-Measles vaccine types seem to believe in its efficacy but think that there is advantage in being the non-vaccinated one that is protected by herd immunity. Which even if true (it isn't) obviously erodes that herd immunity.

You'd figure that such re-outbreaks would then inform and demonstrate the advantage of vaccination to a larger group and adoption rates would go back up...and in some areas that has even happened. (The creation of mandates and dropping exemptions have a lot to do this) but apparently not enough.

On a 10,000 ft view basis will be interesting to see if high Covid vaccine adoption areas showing signs of success will regulate the antivaxxers to a true lunatic fringe again or if their message is just that well aimed at the selfish and threat based parts of our brain that it continues to flourish.

(i mean the great fluorine conspiracy types are still out there but have not caught much traction lately...driving it down to that level is what I'd call success)

[warty goblin]

When people could remember getting measles, and could see a good reason for NOT having their kid go through that....helped.

And lots of the Anti-Measles vaccine types seem to believe in its efficacy but think that there is advantage in being the non-vaccinated one that is protected by herd immunity. Which even if true (it isn't) obviously erodes that herd immunity.

I grew up around a number of people who thought this, and opted out of vaccinating their kids because they believed the vaccine could be harmful. Always pissed me the hell off, like what makes your children so special that you get to offload responsibility onto everybody else's?

[pendell]

Some good news for a change: Pfizer proves effective against the new variants .

Maybe, in the best case, if we score a complete victory over the disease we can have a Covid day like Guy Fawkes day where we make an effigy of the disease, beat it like a pinata, then throw it on a bonfire? I'd like that.

Don't get me started on anti-vaxxers. I was visiting a family member just recently and came across their youtube where they were patiently watching "measles: fraud?". I have to restrain my anger. I haven't had much success convincing them otherwise -- to them, these youtube personalities are the Source of Truth and those of us who say otherwise are either part of the Conspiracy(tm) or deluded sheeple.

{scrubbed}

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[farothel]

I haven't weighed in on the previous thread, but I have worked as a statistical analyst on several studies for various drug and therapy combinations to treat Covid-19. I can't give any more detail than that due to NDAs, but I can say that as someone who has specifically been paid to do the math, I will be getting vaccinated at my first opportunity.

TLDR: Getting poked with a needle in the arm a couple times is way better than getting poked in the trachea with a ventilator.

Same here. I'm currently working in the statistical programming team of one of the companies who's vaccine still has to be approved (hopefully, if all goes well, by the end of the month). I'm going to get my vaccine as quickly as I can. And I can tell you, we're doing the same trials we always do for new drugs and with the same standards. The only things that have changed is that we run some things in parallel where we normally don't and there's a lot more resources poured in (like normally a programming team is 3-4 people, with 1-2 added at trial end, now we're with 15; the same is true in hospitals and at regulatory authorities like the FDA) and everybody treats this at the highest priority.

There is a lot of good information about the COVID vaccines on the CDC COVID page which I recommend to everybody who feels they need more information.

[sihnfahl]

We have a plague in the US that's worse than covid and that plague is misinformation.

That's not the heart of the plague, though.

Misinformation isn't an issue until there are a critical number of people who are unable to determine it is misinformation and act upon it.

We've always had misinformation. We've just had a lot more people who were able to tell they were being scammed in the past...

COVID-wise, my employer got notification that vaccinations are available. Being IT, however, I'm low on the totem pole for vaccination. And the hospital doesn't know how many of the eligible people they would be able to actually cover, right now, and who in that list is priority.

There are probably only a few hundred doses available county-wide. Even if they do half doses, they won't even get 0.5% of our county's population.

[warty goblin]

That's not the heart of the plague, though.

Misinformation isn't an issue until there are a critical number of people who are unable to determine it is misinformation and act upon it.

We've always had misinformation. We've just had a lot more people who were able to tell they were being scammed in the past...

.

The great thing about the internet is that it brings people with common interests together. The terrible thing about the internet is that it brings people with common interests together.

[Tvtyrant]

That's not the heart of the plague, though.

Misinformation isn't an issue until there are a critical number of people who are unable to determine it is misinformation and act upon it.

We've always had misinformation. We've just had a lot more people who were able to tell they were being scammed in the past...

COVID-wise, my employer got notification that vaccinations are available. Being IT, however, I'm low on the totem pole for vaccination. And the hospital doesn't know how many of the eligible people they would be able to actually cover, right now, and who in that list is priority.

There are probably only a few hundred doses available county-wide. Even if they do half doses, they won't even get 0.5% of our county's population.

I think it's always been like this. Ben Franklin printed anti-vaccine material for his brother in Boston back in the 1730s, which whipped up a riot.

[sihnfahl]

I think it's always been like this. Ben Franklin printed anti-vaccine material for his brother in Boston back in the 1730s, which whipped up a riot.

It was the early 1720s.

Boylston (the doctor behind the inoculations) was assaulted during the Smallpox Outbreak of 1721. Ben was 16, and the editor for the New England Courant (founded August 1721 by his elder brother). The Courant went byebye in 1726, by which time Ben had left for Philadelphia (1723).

Benjamin became pro-vax in the 30s, partially thanks to losing a son to smallpox.

[sihnfahl]

Per current rate, the US is expected to hit 400k deaths within 2 weeks.

Given recent events, the likelihood is that infection rate will go up, and the 400k death toll will be reached even sooner.

I'll say that it's optimistic that we kill it this year, especially if these mutations continue to the point the vaccines drop in effectiveness.

[pendell]

We're keeping up with the mutations so far , and the RNA vaccines can be tweaked to adjust to mutations far more quickly than the original vaccines were, so I remain hopeful.

I do not hope that the disease will disappear completely. I expect it will be a chronic issue, like the flu, which we will have to vaccinate against on a regular basis. But we can , I believe, resume our normal lives and put this catastrophic death toll behind us.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[sihnfahl]

the RNA vaccines can be tweaked to adjust to mutations far more quickly than the original vaccines were, so I remain hopeful.

While the vaccines can be tweaked, it still comes down to production and distribution if it comes to that point.

Production for one would negate production of the other without greater investment. Without which, it would be a question of which percentage of fabrication would be allocated to strain 1, and how much to strain 2.

And distribution thus far for the initial vaccines has been found ... wanting. It's been a month since Pfizer's vaccine has been approved, 3 weeks since Moderna, and the county I live in STILL doesn't have a distribution plan as to who to prioritize. Even my contacts in EMS and Law Enforcement say they don't know when or who of their own go first!

A plan they should have been prepping before final approval, IMO.

But we have received doses.

[warty goblin]

If (ot maybe more accurately when) the virus mutates into a form one or more of the vaccines don't protect against, I can't see it being anything but a huge problem.

First you need to modify the vaccine, although with mRNA this is apparently pretty quick. But then you need to demonstrate its effectiveness - even if you can skip phase 2 safety trials based on similarities to the existing vaccine the phase 3 trials are still months long. During which time you've got a new variant running around a population with limited resistance.

And then it's on to production and most particularly distribution, and we're clearly having some real trouble with part 2 of that. To be sure you don't have to start over on the cold storage infrastructure and so on, but you do need to re-vaccinate everybody. And you probably have to keep vaccinating people with the current vaccines, because you're looking at months until the new vaccines are available and original covid is still out there killing people.

If such a strain emerged, and was not stomped out as quickly and decisively as the Danes seem to have managed with the mutation from farmed mink, it's very, very bad news. Basically it would knock us back to July, when vaccines were just entering trials.

[Keltest]

If (ot maybe more accurately when) the virus mutates into a form one or more of the vaccines don't protect against, I can't see it being anything but a huge problem.

First you need to modify the vaccine, although with mRNA this is apparently pretty quick. But then you need to demonstrate its effectiveness - even if you can skip phase 2 safety trials based on similarities to the existing vaccine the phase 3 trials are still months long. During which time you've got a new variant running around a population with limited resistance.

And then it's on to production and most particularly distribution, and we're clearly having some real trouble with part 2 of that. To be sure you don't have to start over on the cold storage infrastructure and so on, but you do need to re-vaccinate everybody. And you probably have to keep vaccinating people with the current vaccines, because you're looking at months until the new vaccines are available and original covid is still out there killing people.

If such a strain emerged, and was not stomped out as quickly and decisively as the Danes seem to have managed with the mutation from farmed mink, it's very, very bad news. Basically it would knock us back to July, when vaccines were just entering trials.

Counterpoint: The flu has not yet managed to wipe out humanity, nor indeed do we have to just suffer without a flu vaccine every other year because we spend that time on trials. The logistics of adapting and distributing an existing vaccine are a solved problem. The challenges we are seeing right now are caused by this being the first run of a totally new vaccine to a totally new disease. Unless it mutates so severely that the current vaccines are rendered totally ineffective to the point where they cant be salvaged, yearly mutations arent going to restart the pandemic.

[warty goblin]

Counterpoint: The flu has not yet managed to wipe out humanity, nor indeed do we have to just suffer without a flu vaccine every other year because we spend that time on trials. The logistics of adapting and distributing an existing vaccine are a solved problem. The challenges we are seeing right now are caused by this being the first run of a totally new vaccine to a totally new disease. Unless it mutates so severely that the current vaccines are rendered totally ineffective to the point where they cant be salvaged, yearly mutations arent going to restart the pandemic.

I don't recall saying anything about covid wiping out humanity if it mutated to bypass vaccines. I said it would be bad, and probably kill a lot of people, which seems like a pretty reasonable guess given past performance.

The timeline for adapting the flu vaccine for a new strain of influenza is about 5 to 6 months from discovery to distribution. Quite a bit of that time is due to peculiarities of growing virus in chicken eggs, which is not necessary for an mRNA vaccine. But you still need the lab work to demonstrate it induces an immune response, and some validation that the immune response conveys protection. How long that takes, and what methods are adequate to assess efficacy against a hypothetical new strain I don't know. If the flu timeline is a good approximation, then five months before the December start of vaccine distribution in the USA gives us... July.

[Rogar Demonblud]

Actually, that clock starts with detection. Which was autumn of 2019, meaning the vaccine would be rolling out spring of 2020, right when this whole mess was ramping up. For accurate parallels.

Anyway, first shots have made it to the nursing homes where my elderly relatives abide. So hopefully I can visit them in the not too distant future without two panes of plexiglass between us.

[Bobb]

Some good news for a change: Pfizer proves effective against the new variants .

Maybe, in the best case, if we score a complete victory over the disease we can have a Covid day like Guy Fawkes day where we make an effigy of the disease, beat it like a pinata, then throw it on a bonfire? I'd like that.

Don't get me started on anti-vaxxers. I was visiting a family member just recently and came across their youtube where they were patiently watching "measles: fraud?". I have to restrain my anger. I haven't had much success convincing them otherwise -- to them, these youtube personalities are the Source of Truth and those of us who say otherwise are either part of the Conspiracy(tm) or deluded sheeple.

{scrub the post, scrub the quote}
Respectfully,

Brian P.

{scrubbed}

[sihnfahl]

Actually, that clock starts with detection. Which was autumn of 2019, meaning the vaccine would be rolling out spring of 2020, right when this whole mess was ramping up. For accurate parallels.

I would argue a bit later. The r0 of COVID wasn't initially known and probably slowed response due to the downplay of its ease of spread and its significant health impact.

A mutation to COVID that renders the current vaccine options less effective would be jumped on fast, just in case the mutation would result in a higher r0 and/or negative health outcomes. They wouldn't take chances - they'd want to stop it before it spread any further.

[Peelee]

The Mod on the Silver Mountain: The last iteration of this thread had several official nudges reminding all users to avoid politics. This does not mean to thinly veil politics, or mention political events in all but name. This means to avoid politics.

[sihnfahl]

Well, that was fascinating.

Got a call from a contact at a local hospital. The (lack of a) rollout plan for vaccinations reached the point where they had a few hundred doses that they had to use ASAP.

Hour and a half of paperwork and waiting later, that's dose 1 of Moderna.

And I was sitting with people from various fire departments, a few county transport people, some paper pushers with the County Gov... just a whole mess of people with random jobs tangentially attached to public safety / government / transport.

Guess I'm lucky for being IT with connections to healthcare providers and government functions?

No. Plan.

[Rogar Demonblud]

Out of morbid curiosity, would you tell us which state you're in? I think I want to not go there this year.