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2021-01-07, 02:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2010
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2021-01-07, 03:05 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2011
- Location
- Calgary, AB
- Gender
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2021-01-07, 03:09 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
That's a dead link. It just kicks up an error page.
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2021-01-07, 03:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Well, if you want to catch up:
CDC Measles info
"From January 1 to December 31, 2019, 1,282* individual cases of measles were confirmed in 31 states."
"As of November 30, 2020, there have been 13 confirmed cases in 8 jurisdictions.*"
Enjoy the bar graph.
If COVID goes the same way...Last edited by sihnfahl; 2021-01-07 at 03:17 PM.
May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-07, 03:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2011
- Location
- Calgary, AB
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
It works in my post? But in case the formatting is doing something weird, it should be pointing to here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measle..._United_States
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2021-01-07, 03:43 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2008
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Spoiler: I'm a writer!Spoiler: Check out my fanfiction[URL="https://www.fanfiction.net/u/7493788/Forum-Explorer"here[/URL]
]Fate Stay Nano: Fate Stay Night x Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha
I Fell in Love with a Storm: MLP
Procrastination: MLP
Spoiler: Original FictionThe Lost Dragon: A story about a priest who finds a baby dragon in his church and decides to protect them.
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2021-01-07, 03:48 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2009
- Location
- Canadia
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
The high level equation to determine the percent of immune population required herd immunity is: P = 1 - (1/R)
So say R = 2, 50% of the population would require immunization. At 70% effectiveness for the Oxford vaccine, 71% of the population would have to be vaccinated to render herd immunity.
Now if R = 4, 75% of the population would need to be immune, which would require, uhhh, 107% of the population to be vaccinated. Luckily, we have vaccines that are >90% effective, so with a combined use this isn't an impossibility.
Finding out the actual (or at least most likely) R0 is incredibly frustrating as sources seem to be conflating R0 (basic reproduction number) and Rt (effective reproduction number which includes mitigating measures), so reported R numbers seem to be anywhere between 1 and 6, with credible R0 being around 3. This would require 66.7% of the population to be immune, or 95% of the population to be vaccinated if Oxford is the only vaccine widely available.
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2021-01-07, 04:34 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2010
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
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2021-01-07, 04:49 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
The point is that we were well below even those limited numbers. The disease is making a comeback because of the antivaxxers.
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2021-01-07, 05:14 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2010
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Measles has an R0 of around 10, so the herd immunity threshold for Measles is 90% coverage; or with a 97% effective vaccine, you need about 94% coverage. So keeping those numbers below deaths comparable to a war requires nearly everyone to be working together towards that end - a small amount of counter-action can ruin it.
We had that kind of unity in the past. I wonder if there's a way to get back there again.Last edited by NichG; 2021-01-07 at 05:16 PM.
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2021-01-07, 10:27 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2005
- Location
- Santa Barbara, CA
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
When people could remember getting measles, and could see a good reason for NOT having their kid go through that....helped.
And lots of the Anti-Measles vaccine types seem to believe in its efficacy but think that there is advantage in being the non-vaccinated one that is protected by herd immunity. Which even if true (it isn't) obviously erodes that herd immunity.
You'd figure that such re-outbreaks would then inform and demonstrate the advantage of vaccination to a larger group and adoption rates would go back up...and in some areas that has even happened. (The creation of mandates and dropping exemptions have a lot to do this) but apparently not enough.
On a 10,000 ft view basis will be interesting to see if high Covid vaccine adoption areas showing signs of success will regulate the antivaxxers to a true lunatic fringe again or if their message is just that well aimed at the selfish and threat based parts of our brain that it continues to flourish.
(i mean the great fluorine conspiracy types are still out there but have not caught much traction lately...driving it down to that level is what I'd call success)
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2021-01-07, 11:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
- Location
- Tail of the Bellcurve
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
I grew up around a number of people who thought this, and opted out of vaccinating their kids because they believed the vaccine could be harmful. Always pissed me the hell off, like what makes your children so special that you get to offload responsibility onto everybody else's?
Blood-red were his spurs i' the golden noon; wine-red was his velvet coat,
When they shot him down on the highway,
Down like a dog on the highway,And he lay in his blood on the highway, with the bunch of lace at his throat.
Alfred Noyes, The Highwayman, 1906.
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2021-01-08, 08:34 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2006
- Location
- Raleigh NC
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Some good news for a change: Pfizer proves effective against the new variants .
Maybe, in the best case, if we score a complete victory over the disease we can have a Covid day like Guy Fawkes day where we make an effigy of the disease, beat it like a pinata, then throw it on a bonfire? I'd like that.
Don't get me started on anti-vaxxers. I was visiting a family member just recently and came across their youtube where they were patiently watching "measles: fraud?". I have to restrain my anger. I haven't had much success convincing them otherwise -- to them, these youtube personalities are the Source of Truth and those of us who say otherwise are either part of the Conspiracy(tm) or deluded sheeple.
{scrubbed}
Respectfully,
Brian P.Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-11 at 09:59 PM.
"Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
-Valery Legasov in Chernobyl
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2021-01-08, 11:49 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2018
- Location
- Belgium
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Same here. I'm currently working in the statistical programming team of one of the companies who's vaccine still has to be approved (hopefully, if all goes well, by the end of the month). I'm going to get my vaccine as quickly as I can. And I can tell you, we're doing the same trials we always do for new drugs and with the same standards. The only things that have changed is that we run some things in parallel where we normally don't and there's a lot more resources poured in (like normally a programming team is 3-4 people, with 1-2 added at trial end, now we're with 15; the same is true in hospitals and at regulatory authorities like the FDA) and everybody treats this at the highest priority.
There is a lot of good information about the COVID vaccines on the CDC COVID page which I recommend to everybody who feels they need more information.Clacks-Overhead: GNU Terry Pratchett
"Magic can turn a frog into a prince. Science can turn a frog into a Ph.D. and you still have the frog you started with." Terry Pratchett
"I will not yield to evil, unless she's cute."
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2021-01-08, 01:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
That's not the heart of the plague, though.
Misinformation isn't an issue until there are a critical number of people who are unable to determine it is misinformation and act upon it.
We've always had misinformation. We've just had a lot more people who were able to tell they were being scammed in the past...
COVID-wise, my employer got notification that vaccinations are available. Being IT, however, I'm low on the totem pole for vaccination. And the hospital doesn't know how many of the eligible people they would be able to actually cover, right now, and who in that list is priority.
There are probably only a few hundred doses available county-wide. Even if they do half doses, they won't even get 0.5% of our county's population.Last edited by sihnfahl; 2021-01-08 at 01:26 PM.
May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-08, 01:52 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
- Location
- Tail of the Bellcurve
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Blood-red were his spurs i' the golden noon; wine-red was his velvet coat,
When they shot him down on the highway,
Down like a dog on the highway,And he lay in his blood on the highway, with the bunch of lace at his throat.
Alfred Noyes, The Highwayman, 1906.
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2021-01-08, 02:05 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2010
- Gender
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2021-01-08, 02:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
It was the early 1720s.
Boylston (the doctor behind the inoculations) was assaulted during the Smallpox Outbreak of 1721. Ben was 16, and the editor for the New England Courant (founded August 1721 by his elder brother). The Courant went byebye in 1726, by which time Ben had left for Philadelphia (1723).
Benjamin became pro-vax in the 30s, partially thanks to losing a son to smallpox.May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-11, 09:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Per current rate, the US is expected to hit 400k deaths within 2 weeks.
Given recent events, the likelihood is that infection rate will go up, and the 400k death toll will be reached even sooner.
I'll say that it's optimistic that we kill it this year, especially if these mutations continue to the point the vaccines drop in effectiveness.May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-11, 10:45 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2006
- Location
- Raleigh NC
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
We're keeping up with the mutations so far , and the RNA vaccines can be tweaked to adjust to mutations far more quickly than the original vaccines were, so I remain hopeful.
I do not hope that the disease will disappear completely. I expect it will be a chronic issue, like the flu, which we will have to vaccinate against on a regular basis. But we can , I believe, resume our normal lives and put this catastrophic death toll behind us.
Respectfully,
Brian P."Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
-Valery Legasov in Chernobyl
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2021-01-11, 10:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
While the vaccines can be tweaked, it still comes down to production and distribution if it comes to that point.
Production for one would negate production of the other without greater investment. Without which, it would be a question of which percentage of fabrication would be allocated to strain 1, and how much to strain 2.
And distribution thus far for the initial vaccines has been found ... wanting. It's been a month since Pfizer's vaccine has been approved, 3 weeks since Moderna, and the county I live in STILL doesn't have a distribution plan as to who to prioritize. Even my contacts in EMS and Law Enforcement say they don't know when or who of their own go first!
A plan they should have been prepping before final approval, IMO.
But we have received doses.Last edited by sihnfahl; 2021-01-11 at 11:04 AM.
May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-11, 11:09 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
- Location
- Tail of the Bellcurve
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
If (ot maybe more accurately when) the virus mutates into a form one or more of the vaccines don't protect against, I can't see it being anything but a huge problem.
First you need to modify the vaccine, although with mRNA this is apparently pretty quick. But then you need to demonstrate its effectiveness - even if you can skip phase 2 safety trials based on similarities to the existing vaccine the phase 3 trials are still months long. During which time you've got a new variant running around a population with limited resistance.
And then it's on to production and most particularly distribution, and we're clearly having some real trouble with part 2 of that. To be sure you don't have to start over on the cold storage infrastructure and so on, but you do need to re-vaccinate everybody. And you probably have to keep vaccinating people with the current vaccines, because you're looking at months until the new vaccines are available and original covid is still out there killing people.
If such a strain emerged, and was not stomped out as quickly and decisively as the Danes seem to have managed with the mutation from farmed mink, it's very, very bad news. Basically it would knock us back to July, when vaccines were just entering trials.Blood-red were his spurs i' the golden noon; wine-red was his velvet coat,
When they shot him down on the highway,
Down like a dog on the highway,And he lay in his blood on the highway, with the bunch of lace at his throat.
Alfred Noyes, The Highwayman, 1906.
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2021-01-11, 11:19 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Counterpoint: The flu has not yet managed to wipe out humanity, nor indeed do we have to just suffer without a flu vaccine every other year because we spend that time on trials. The logistics of adapting and distributing an existing vaccine are a solved problem. The challenges we are seeing right now are caused by this being the first run of a totally new vaccine to a totally new disease. Unless it mutates so severely that the current vaccines are rendered totally ineffective to the point where they cant be salvaged, yearly mutations arent going to restart the pandemic.
“Evil is evil. Lesser, greater, middling, it's all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred. I'm not a pious hermit, I haven't done only good in my life. But if I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all.”
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2021-01-11, 11:44 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2007
- Location
- Tail of the Bellcurve
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
I don't recall saying anything about covid wiping out humanity if it mutated to bypass vaccines. I said it would be bad, and probably kill a lot of people, which seems like a pretty reasonable guess given past performance.
The timeline for adapting the flu vaccine for a new strain of influenza is about 5 to 6 months from discovery to distribution. Quite a bit of that time is due to peculiarities of growing virus in chicken eggs, which is not necessary for an mRNA vaccine. But you still need the lab work to demonstrate it induces an immune response, and some validation that the immune response conveys protection. How long that takes, and what methods are adequate to assess efficacy against a hypothetical new strain I don't know. If the flu timeline is a good approximation, then five months before the December start of vaccine distribution in the USA gives us... July.Blood-red were his spurs i' the golden noon; wine-red was his velvet coat,
When they shot him down on the highway,
Down like a dog on the highway,And he lay in his blood on the highway, with the bunch of lace at his throat.
Alfred Noyes, The Highwayman, 1906.
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2021-01-11, 12:40 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Actually, that clock starts with detection. Which was autumn of 2019, meaning the vaccine would be rolling out spring of 2020, right when this whole mess was ramping up. For accurate parallels.
Anyway, first shots have made it to the nursing homes where my elderly relatives abide. So hopefully I can visit them in the not too distant future without two panes of plexiglass between us.
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2021-01-11, 01:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Mar 2012
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2021-01-11, 02:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
I would argue a bit later. The r0 of COVID wasn't initially known and probably slowed response due to the downplay of its ease of spread and its significant health impact.
A mutation to COVID that renders the current vaccine options less effective would be jumped on fast, just in case the mutation would result in a higher r0 and/or negative health outcomes. They wouldn't take chances - they'd want to stop it before it spread any further.May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-11, 06:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2009
- Location
- Birmingham, AL
- Gender
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
The Mod on the Silver Mountain: The last iteration of this thread had several official nudges reminding all users to avoid politics. This does not mean to thinly veil politics, or mention political events in all but name. This means to avoid politics.
Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-11 at 10:06 PM.
Cuthalion's art is the prettiest art of all the art. Like my avatar.
Number of times Roland St. Jude has sworn revenge upon me: 2
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2021-01-12, 10:36 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Well, that was fascinating.
Got a call from a contact at a local hospital. The (lack of a) rollout plan for vaccinations reached the point where they had a few hundred doses that they had to use ASAP.
Hour and a half of paperwork and waiting later, that's dose 1 of Moderna.
And I was sitting with people from various fire departments, a few county transport people, some paper pushers with the County Gov... just a whole mess of people with random jobs tangentially attached to public safety / government / transport.
Guess I'm lucky for being IT with connections to healthcare providers and government functions?
No. Plan.May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-01-12, 11:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2013
Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II
Out of morbid curiosity, would you tell us which state you're in? I think I want to not go there this year.