Support the GITP forums on Patreon
Help support GITP's forums (and ongoing server maintenance) via Patreon
Page 5 of 18 FirstFirst 123456789101112131415 ... LastLast
Results 121 to 150 of 530
  1. - Top - End - #121
    Titan in the Playground
     
    DrowGuy

    Join Date
    Dec 2015

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    Kind of surprised that theyre asking "if" rather than "when". I cant imagine that the store i work at will let us get away without a vaccine for quite a while, even if they have to organize and pay for everything themselves.
    I'm was surprised when they ask me that question. In my mind, I was like " wow, vaccines already? That was unexpected."
    It's time to get my Magikarp on!

  2. - Top - End - #122
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    Planetar

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Raleigh NC
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    It seems the human cost of the epidemic is far greater than merely lives lost. Native American elders , typically living remotely with little access to medical care, are being decimated by the disease. We're losing a great deal of tradition and culture which was kept in their memory and will now be lost forever :(.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

    -Valery Legasov in Chernobyl

  3. - Top - End - #123
    Troll in the Playground
     
    DwarfClericGuy

    Join Date
    Jun 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    We're losing a great deal of tradition and culture which was kept in their memory and will now be lost forever :(.
    IIRC, there's been a drive for years to record those traditions and cultural knowledge, because people recognize the weakness of oral traditions - you need the holder of those traditions to actually vocalize them. And the population was aging.

    There's a reason why a few NA nations tried to shut down highways going through the reservations...
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  4. - Top - End - #124
    Bugbear in the Playground
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Ontario, Canada
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    And now apparently the first person in Quebec to get the vaccine subsequently developed Covid.
    Of course, she the vaccine is just as likely to fail with her as anyone else, and she seems to have recovered (which may suggest it reduced her symptoms, though that's mere speculation), but this will certainly only add fuel to the fire of those who are rejecting the shot.
    Last edited by Strigon; 2021-01-14 at 03:47 PM.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

    Quote Originally Posted by remetagross View Post
    All hail the mighty Strigon! One only has to ask, and one shall receive.

  5. - Top - End - #125
    Ettin in the Playground
    Join Date
    Dec 2010

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    And now apparently the first person in Quebec to get the vaccine subsequently developed Covid.
    Of course, she the vaccine is just as likely to fail with her as anyone else, and she seems to have recovered (which may suggest it reduced her symptoms, though that's mere speculation), but this will certainly only add fuel to the fire of those who are rejecting the shot.
    If this is related to the 7 cases in Maimonides Long Term Care, they only got the first dose so far. Data from Israel's rollout so far suggests only about 50% protection between the two doses. So yeah, you want that second dose.
    Last edited by NichG; 2021-01-14 at 04:16 PM.

  6. - Top - End - #126
    Bugbear in the Playground
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Ontario, Canada
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    If this is related to the 7 cases in Maimonides Long Term Care, they only got the first dose so far. Data from Israel's rollout so far suggests only about 50% protection between the two doses. So yeah, you want that second dose.
    Oh, she definitely only had the first dose; the symptoms appeared 2 weeks after she got her first shot.
    But if you think that'll matter to the people who are determined to undermine the vaccine effort at any cost, then you've got a more optimistic outlook than I.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

    Quote Originally Posted by remetagross View Post
    All hail the mighty Strigon! One only has to ask, and one shall receive.

  7. - Top - End - #127
    Ettin in the Playground
    Join Date
    Dec 2010

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    Oh, she definitely only had the first dose; the symptoms appeared 2 weeks after she got her first shot.
    But if you think that'll matter to the people who are determined to undermine the vaccine effort at any cost, then you've got a more optimistic outlook than I.
    Maybe more pessimistic, in that I wouldn't estimate there to be a large population of people who were on the fence and hadn't already pre-decided such that this will be this to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

  8. - Top - End - #128
    Closed Account
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-14 at 09:30 PM.

  9. - Top - End - #129
    Troll in the Playground
     
    georgie_leech's Avatar

    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Conradine View Post
    {scrub the post, scrub the quote}
    {scrubbed}

    -----------------------------------------------------------

    It looks as though I'm going to be waiting a while for mine, as I'm not in any of the at-risk groups thankfully. Looks Like I'm young enough to also be out of the running for the second major part of the roll-out (after all the high risk and front-line healthcare etc.), as it looks like it might be aimed at those of 30+ age. Which in a way makes it easy to choose, because I'm gonna be after all the initial data is in and it's proven effective across the wider population. Dangit, I'm trying to put my money where my mouth is and be responsible! Stop making me wait for others to get it first!
    Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-14 at 09:31 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grod_The_Giant View Post
    We should try to make that a thing; I think it might help civility. Hey, GitP, let's try to make this a thing: when you're arguing optimization strategies, RAW-logic, and similar such things that you'd never actually use in a game, tag your post [THEORETICAL] and/or use green text
    Quote Originally Posted by Lvl 2 Expert View Post
    So a ranger is like a Bachelor of Applied Druidology.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Jake View Post
    What's the word for 'fear of being eaten by a mounted bear in half-plate' again? Because that's the one I have.

  10. - Top - End - #130
    Troll in the Playground
     
    DwarfClericGuy

    Join Date
    Jun 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    If this is related to the 7 cases in Maimonides Long Term Care, they only got the first dose so far. Data from Israel's rollout so far suggests only about 50% protection between the two doses. So yeah, you want that second dose.
    She got the Pfizer vaccine, which has a lower initial protective effect from the first dose.

    "The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen," the researchers wrote. "Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2.""
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  11. - Top - End - #131
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Grey_Wolf_c's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Conradine View Post
    {scrub the post, scrub the quote}
    Asserting a provable falsehood couched as an opinion doesn't make it any less of a falsehood.

    GW
    Last edited by Peelee; 2021-01-14 at 09:33 PM.
    Interested in MitD? Join us in MitD's thread.
    There is a world of imagination
    Deep in the corners of your mind
    Where reality is an intruder
    And myth and legend thrive
    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
    Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est

  12. - Top - End - #132
    Bugbear in the Playground
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Ontario, Canada
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    Maybe more pessimistic, in that I wouldn't estimate there to be a large population of people who were on the fence and hadn't already pre-decided such that this will be this to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
    Anti-vaxxers used to be a relative fringe group, largely dismissed by society. Even the recent measles outbreaks don't really show them as being a very significant proportion of the overall population, given how few people need to reject the vaccine for such a virulent disease to take root again.
    Over the course of the last year or so, however, misinformation and distrust have built to the point where a very sizable chunk of the population now has serious doubts about the vaccine.

    Maybe it won't convince many people to change from a yes to a no, but there are a lot of people who are in the camp of "wait and see what happens", and I don't doubt this event (exaggerated or stretched to the point of falsehood) will be responsible for swaying a good number of them - if only for the coverage of it being the very first person vaccinated in the region.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

    Quote Originally Posted by remetagross View Post
    All hail the mighty Strigon! One only has to ask, and one shall receive.

  13. - Top - End - #133
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Forum Explorer's Avatar

    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Canada
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    Anti-vaxxers used to be a relative fringe group, largely dismissed by society. Even the recent measles outbreaks don't really show them as being a very significant proportion of the overall population, given how few people need to reject the vaccine for such a virulent disease to take root again.
    Over the course of the last year or so, however, misinformation and distrust have built to the point where a very sizable chunk of the population now has serious doubts about the vaccine.

    Maybe it won't convince many people to change from a yes to a no, but there are a lot of people who are in the camp of "wait and see what happens", and I don't doubt this event (exaggerated or stretched to the point of falsehood) will be responsible for swaying a good number of them - if only for the coverage of it being the very first person vaccinated in the region.
    At the very least they are still widely mocked. I overheard some random older ladies mocking a client of theirs for claiming that the vaccine was made out of 'bat juice'.
    Spoiler: I'm a writer!
    Show
    Spoiler: Check out my fanfiction[URL="https://www.fanfiction.net/u/7493788/Forum-Explorer"
    Show
    here[/URL]
    ]Fate Stay Nano: Fate Stay Night x Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha

    I Fell in Love with a Storm: MLP

    Procrastination: MLP



    Spoiler: Original Fiction
    Show
    The Lost Dragon: A story about a priest who finds a baby dragon in his church and decides to protect them.



  14. - Top - End - #134
    Closed Account
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    *scrubbed*
    Last edited by flat_footed; 2021-01-14 at 10:20 PM.

  15. - Top - End - #135
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Grey_Wolf_c's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Conradine View Post
    *scrub the post, scrub the quote*
    Nonsense. Truth requires facts. Which you don't have.

    Grey Wolf
    Last edited by flat_footed; 2021-01-14 at 10:20 PM.
    Interested in MitD? Join us in MitD's thread.
    There is a world of imagination
    Deep in the corners of your mind
    Where reality is an intruder
    And myth and legend thrive
    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
    Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est

  16. - Top - End - #136
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Forum Explorer's Avatar

    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Canada
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Conradine View Post
    *scrub the post, scrub the quote*
    Hah! Truth is like a lion indeed. If it isn't protected it'll be wiped out by humans.


    Do you have any proof? Cause I've got 2 million dead worldwide that says you're wrong. And it wouldn't be hard to confirm COVID deaths if you really cared about doing so. Check the obituaries, crosscheck will daily reported deaths. And if that's not enough you could even phone the families involved or check their Facebooks.
    Last edited by flat_footed; 2021-01-14 at 10:29 PM.
    Spoiler: I'm a writer!
    Show
    Spoiler: Check out my fanfiction[URL="https://www.fanfiction.net/u/7493788/Forum-Explorer"
    Show
    here[/URL]
    ]Fate Stay Nano: Fate Stay Night x Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha

    I Fell in Love with a Storm: MLP

    Procrastination: MLP



    Spoiler: Original Fiction
    Show
    The Lost Dragon: A story about a priest who finds a baby dragon in his church and decides to protect them.



  17. - Top - End - #137
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

    Join Date
    Jan 2009

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Moving back a few posts, which I hope is okay since it's moving to something less heated/scrubbed.

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    Meanwhile, Moderna immunity expected to last at least a year
    One thing I've been really surprised to learn (or realize, maybe) is that a vaccine doesn't make you fully immune, nor does having a disease. Like, I thought the reason you get a flu vaccine each year is that the flu mutates so, even if you're immune to the strains that were around last year, it's new ones this year. Or that if I got strep throat a second time, it was a different strain of the strepococcus bacteria that must be causing the infection. Since, if it were the exact same virus or bacteria, my body would know how to fight it since it's been exposed.

    But I've learned, at least in some cases, the body 'forgets'. I guess I always knew that since tetanus vaccines don't last forever, but it really hit me with thinking about COVID vaccines.
    Do we know why our body 'remembers' for some diseases and not others? Like, we don't get chicken pox twice, and it sounds like the measles vaccine really stops you from getting measles. Or -- at least to a layman's eyes -- it is basically "random" (not truly random, but hard to explain/predict) and we don't know how long a vaccine lasts until we learn it empirically?

  18. - Top - End - #138
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Grey_Wolf_c's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Moving back a few posts, which I hope is okay since it's moving to something less heated/scrubbed.
    Yes, let's do that. That's a good idea. I approve of dragging me by the collar away from the likely ire of mods.

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Do we know why our body 'remembers' for some diseases and not others? Like, we don't get chicken pox twice, and it sounds like the measles vaccine really stops you from getting measles. Or -- at least to a layman's eyes -- it is basically "random" (not truly random, but hard to explain/predict) and we don't know how long a vaccine lasts until we learn it empirically?
    I recommend watching the video I posted a page ago for Brian. Simplifying, our "memory" of diseases is a specific type of immune cell which, instead of being sent off to the front lines, is retained in the immune centres, asleep, until it is needed in the next infection. But (and feel free to chant along, or pelt me with tomatoes for sounding like a broken record) biology is really messy, so it is possible that not enough of those cells were stored away after getting the infection the first time (for example, because your first line of defence was enough to repel the virus, so it never got around to generating antibodies), or were malformed, and they don't actually generate the right antibodies, or have died since, or any number of other issues.

    Since the length of protection tends to be well understood and be broadly identical across the entire population, I suspect that the last one - limited lifespan of the memory cells - is likely the cause. But I don't actually know; I'll try and remember and ask a good friend of mine who happens to be a microbiologist, and (probably like all doctors) has spent the last year fielding questions about this. Note to self, speaking of: remember to buy them a bottle of good wine.

    Grey Wolf
    Last edited by Grey_Wolf_c; 2021-01-14 at 11:05 PM.
    Interested in MitD? Join us in MitD's thread.
    There is a world of imagination
    Deep in the corners of your mind
    Where reality is an intruder
    And myth and legend thrive
    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
    Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est

  19. - Top - End - #139
    Troll in the Playground
     
    Lord Torath's Avatar

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Sharangar's Revenge
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    My sister recently got her second dose of the vaccine (although I'm not sure which manufacturer it was), and she said it was much worse than the first dose. She needed a two-day recovery.
    Last edited by Lord Torath; 2021-01-15 at 08:54 AM.
    Warhammer 40,000 Campaign Skirmish Game: Warpstrike
    My Spelljammer stuff (including an orbit tracker), 2E AD&D spreadsheet, and Vault of the Drow maps are available in my Dropbox. Feel free to use or not use it as you see fit!
    Thri-Kreen Ranger/Psionicist by me, based off of Rich's A Monster for Every Season

  20. - Top - End - #140
    Troll in the Playground
     
    DwarfClericGuy

    Join Date
    Jun 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    My sister recently got her second dose of the vaccine (although I'm not sure which manufacturer it was), and she said it was much worse than the first dose. She needed a two-day recovery.
    Probably the Moderna one, then. It's been noted the second dose side-effects are ... a little more extreme than the first dose.

    For now, my side effects have more or less subsided (mostly it felt like Evander Holyfield decided to give me a 'friendly' jab in the deltoid), save one that's a bit odd.

    My nose seems to be a lot clearer. No joking, my sense of smell seems to have been supercharged. And taste.

    And given my love of things that have cayenne, habanero, ghost pepper...
    Last edited by sihnfahl; 2021-01-15 at 09:48 AM.
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  21. - Top - End - #141

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I guess I should have expected this. We have a new form of medical tourism: people crossing state lines to get vaccinations.

  22. - Top - End - #142
    Troll in the Playground
     
    DwarfClericGuy

    Join Date
    Jun 2007

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    I guess I should have expected this. We have a new form of medical tourism: people crossing state lines to get vaccinations.
    Given the haphazard method of distribution, it was predictable.

    Some places were inevitably going to be getting more doses than they could distribute at a time. Some places, too few.

    And people wanting the vaccine will go where they can to get them, once they hear the vaccinations are available.

    Which, depending on the area, might not even get out, leading to vaccine spoilage and disposal.
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  23. - Top - End - #143

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    The lack of a national level distribution plan is really evident, isn't it? How is the rollout going in non-U.S. countries?

  24. - Top - End - #144
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    Planetar

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Raleigh NC
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Before I review the earlier thread, I would like to present a pair of dueling studies on the effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) or "lockdowns" as they are colloquially known.

    The first is from Imperial College and was conducted in June.

    Quote Originally Posted by Imperial College
    By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted in our study period. We find that across 11 countries 3.1 (2.83.5) million deaths have been averted owing to interventions since the beginning of the epidemic; Extended Data Fig. 5 compares the actual total deaths to the counterfactual total deaths. The counterfactual model without interventions is illustrative only, and reflects the assumptions of our model. We do not account for changes in behaviour; in reality, even in the absence of government interventions we would expect Rt to decrease and therefore would overestimate deaths in the no-intervention model. Conversely, we do not consider the effect on the infection fatality rate as a result of an overwhelmed health system in which patients may not be able to access critical care facilities, which would underestimate the number of counterfactual deaths. In the Supplementary Information, we show further counterfactual estimates under differing assumptions of the generation distribution and onset-to-death distribution and all scenarios broadly show the same trends. Given this agreement across differing scenarios, we believe our estimates for the counterfactual deaths averted to be plausible.
    Now let's look at this one just released from Stanford

    Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries, including South Korea and Sweden that implemented only lrNPIs (Spain had a non‐significant effect). After subtracting the epidemic and lrNPI effects, we find no clear, significant beneficial effect of mrNPIs on case growth in any country. In France, e.g., the effect of mrNPIs was +7% (95CI ‐5%‐19%) when compared with Sweden, and +13% (‐12%‐38%) when compared with South Korea (positive means pro‐contagion). The 95% confidence intervals excluded 30% declines in all 16 comparisons and 15% declines in 11/16 comparisons.

    Conclusions
    While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.
    I've linked both studies directly.

    So .. what to make of this?

    Are they really in disagreement? Imperial seems to be saying that any NPI is more effective than the 'herd immunity' strategy, while Stanford seems to be addressing a more fine-grained difference in the kind of NPI employed. In other words, getting people to mask and social distance gives you most of the benefit while additionally going so far as to restrict travel etc. gives little additional benefit.

    Or is there a fundamental difference in their modeling and assumptions which brings about a disparate result? If so, can anyone here put an easy finger as to what the difference between the two studies is that generates such different interpretations between the two?

    Or, as in my first paragraph, is this not an apples to apples comparison? Are the studies actually in agreement that A) NPI is beneficial but B) that doesn't mean you need a stay-at-home-essential-travel-only NPI to get the benefit?

    Another possibility is the factor of time in the studies: Perhaps if you intervene at the very start of an infection you can save millions of lives, but if you wait until you're in the middle of one there's little benefit to locking the barn after the horse is gone. Is that a reasonable conclusion to draw from the two studies?

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    Last edited by pendell; 2021-01-15 at 01:11 PM.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

    -Valery Legasov in Chernobyl

  25. - Top - End - #145

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    My first remark is to examine to make sure they're covering the same time frames. The difference in issue dates tells me before I read the articles I'm likely to find the Stanford one extends into the late-summer/early-autumn when numbers started spiking because people stopped obeying most of the lockdown rules due to COVID fatigue.

  26. - Top - End - #146
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    Planetar

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Raleigh NC
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    My first remark is to examine to make sure they're covering the same time frames. The difference in issue dates tells me before I read the articles I'm likely to find the Stanford one extends into the late-summer/early-autumn when numbers started spiking because people stopped obeying most of the lockdown rules due to COVID fatigue.
    Easy enough to check. Stanford covers March-May 2020 while Oxford covers February-May. They are overlapping the same time period . So I was wrong about one bit -- both studies are covering the initial outbreak in Spring of 2020. In terms of time frame, the comparison is apples to apples.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

    -Valery Legasov in Chernobyl

  27. - Top - End - #147
    Ettin in the Playground
    Join Date
    Dec 2010

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    I suspect the devil is in the details. The Stanford paper talks about subtracting the effect of lrNPIs and the general course of the virus but they use two hand-picked countries to create that baseline: South Korea and Sweden.

    They say in the case of SK that they did not implement mrNPIs but instead relied on extensive contact tracing and testing. But since the countries they're subtracting SK from didn't use as extensive contact tracing and testing, any sort of advantage from that would be attributed against mrNPIs.

    On the other hand, they may be using Sweden and SK to bracket the extremes since it looks like they do pairwise comparisons.

    Will look in more detail later.

  28. - Top - End - #148
    Bugbear in the Playground
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Location
    Ontario, Canada
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    Before I review the earlier thread, I would like to present a pair of dueling studies on the effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) or "lockdowns" as they are colloquially known.

    The first is from Imperial College and was conducted in June.



    Now let's look at this one just released from Stanford



    I've linked both studies directly.

    So .. what to make of this?

    Are they really in disagreement? Imperial seems to be saying that any NPI is more effective than the 'herd immunity' strategy, while Stanford seems to be addressing a more fine-grained difference in the kind of NPI employed. In other words, getting people to mask and social distance gives you most of the benefit while additionally going so far as to restrict travel etc. gives little additional benefit.

    Or is there a fundamental difference in their modeling and assumptions which brings about a disparate result? If so, can anyone here put an easy finger as to what the difference between the two studies is that generates such different interpretations between the two?

    Or, as in my first paragraph, is this not an apples to apples comparison? Are the studies actually in agreement that A) NPI is beneficial but B) that doesn't mean you need a stay-at-home-essential-travel-only NPI to get the benefit?

    Another possibility is the factor of time in the studies: Perhaps if you intervene at the very start of an infection you can save millions of lives, but if you wait until you're in the middle of one there's little benefit to locking the barn after the horse is gone. Is that a reasonable conclusion to draw from the two studies?

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    The difference is based entirely on how they find their data.
    In order to actually know the effect of any given measure, you'd need to know how things turn out both with and without that measure being in place. Without time travel, this is impossible. So, both studies looked for reasonable ways to estimate the effects.

    The first essentially measured case growth for an individual country before and after each restriction was put in place.
    The second simply compared countries that did employ harsh measures with those that didn't.

    This alone would account for discrepancies, but unfortunately doesn't really answer the question of who has the more accurate estimate; they both have flaws.
    Personally, though, I'd say the second method has more fundamental flaws; first, because it only uses two countries that did not undergo lockdowns as a comparison, and because each country implemented their measures with differing levels of effectiveness. South Korea, for example, had a very efficient contact tracing program that seems to have been as effective as a lockdown. However, that's not the same as saying that a lockdown would have no additional effect, nor does it imply that other countries would have the same success if they went a similar route.

    Edit: The last line you quoted even says as much: "Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions."
    That is to say, there's a benefit, but it could also be achieved other ways. The question then becomes whether those ways are feasible in other cultures, what the cost associated with them is compared to a lockdown, and what the combined effect of doing both would be.
    Last edited by Strigon; 2021-01-15 at 01:42 PM.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

    Quote Originally Posted by remetagross View Post
    All hail the mighty Strigon! One only has to ask, and one shall receive.

  29. - Top - End - #149
    Ettin in the Playground
    Join Date
    Dec 2010

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    It occurs to me that a better way to estimate the effect of lockdowns would be to look at increases in R following the ending of lockdowns and matching those against decreases in R when lockdowns are initiated. Basically, mismatch between those is the collective effect of everything else going on. Best to do it at city or county level than country level as well, when that's possible.

  30. - Top - End - #150
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    Flumph

    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Santa Barbara, CA
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: This year we kill it: Corona Virus Thread Mark II

    For the Corona anti-vaxxers (who seem to be somewhat different but overlapping the pre-Covid antivaxxers) I agree they will be using any evidence, even marginal stuff, to confirm their pre-existing beliefs. . . Humans being human really...

    The 23 deaths in the elderly (out of a total of 33K administered doses) in Norway is honestly more concerning. it may be an artifact, a run of luck, a bad batch, etc but I'd say there is both a reason to be concerned as a real data point and a hangup for people to use to confirm their beliefs.

    As for the Stanford vs Imperial studies.

    meh if you torture the data long enough it will confess to anything. -R.H. Coase

    So there is the question of asking the question in such a way as to get the answer desired...to avoid politics I'll leave it at that but gives an idea

    Also how are they getting their counterfactual models in the Imperial study....there are a fair number of assumptions in there that SWAG's.
    Stanford is calling very different systems (S Korea and Sweden) effectively in the same boat because they both avoided 1 particular family of tactics (lockdowns of various sorts). Which, yes does come from the small sample size of countries that didn't but are also not very analogous.

    To be fair both seem pretty open about these issues.


    Also I'm not sure people are having the Covid fatigue and are following the guidelines less on a large scale...sure I bet it is happening in some places. But anti-mask demonstrations, people complaining about those not wearing masks etc seems to be at a lower level than the spring. Sure christmas gathering finger-wagging has replaced spring break finger wagging but travel and grouping issues hold. People were still denying covid was real on a fairly large scale during these studies data collection periods. So I'm not sure a wide brush "compliance was better then" can be assumed.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •