Smugglers & Scallywags

[JeenLeen]

Busy day at work today, but I'll chime in that I also get an iffy feeling from Captain Cap's post. Mine, like BookWombat's, was also devoid of flavor text to a strong degree. While I could see AV using differing levels of flavor text specifically to preclude us being able to use the flavor text or lack thereof as evidence... I'm leaning wolf.
Also note that the cultist role had fluff, whereas Town seems to have none. Maybe CC is basing his flavor off a cult text.

I also agree with Valmark that CC is essentially a vanillager, if Town. While he is a permanent +1 to the town ranks, that's just the same as anyone else the cult decides to not convert until the game ends. And Valmark is right we can't 100% trust CC until he dies.

I think the Captain Cap wagon is strong enough that I'm voting Davy Jones
Hoping someone votes AvatarVecna.

[Book Wombat]

What was the reason again for voting random people?

[JeenLeen]

Also, if CC flips Town, a lot of suspicion on Valmark. And if CC flips wolf, we can trust Valmark (at least until the next Day starts.)
I agree Valmark would have been a good conversion candidate, but so would CC. (I don't think CC was the original cultist, based on seeming unconcerned about being one of the wagons D1. But I could see him as having enough towncred by the end of D1 that he would have been a good conversion target N1. Yeah, Xi voted him, but I can see Xi doing a bold distancing like that. I don't have time to further investigate D2 posts right now.)

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What was the reason again for voting random people?

If one of us votes Davy Jones and another AvatarVecna, then, based on how they show up in the vote count, we maybe learn if AV is a lynch candidate.
If both show up as having 1 vote, we learn nothing.
If just AV shows up, we learn AV can get votes and thus is probably a lynch candidate.
If neither show up, we learn they cannot get votes and are not lynch candidates.

So basically to try to ferret out if we can kill AV, in case we need to kill AV. I don't think we need to, but getting the info at no real cost seems worthwhile.

[Valmark]

What was the reason again for voting random people?

Basically knowing AV and knowing what she has been doing in this game there could be something afoot- the idea is that while mantaining the real wagon some people vote AV and some stupid vote.

If the AV vote is counted but the stupid one isn't we know AV is a valid target.

I don't share the suspicion, but as long as the actual wagon is mantained I see no harm in trying.

Also, if CC flips Town, a lot of suspicion on Valmark. And if CC flips wolf, we can trust Valmark (at least until the next Day starts.)
I agree Valmark would have been a good conversion candidate, but so would CC. (I don't think CC was the original cultist, based on seeming unconcerned about being one of the wagons D1. But I could see him as having enough towncred by the end of D1 that he would have been a good conversion target N1. Yeah, Xi voted him, but I can see Xi doing a bold distancing like that. I don't have time to further investigate D2 posts right now.)

I'm not sure I would trust myself even if CC flipped Wolf- I can see myself making the exact same arguments regardless of faction.

[Captain Cap]

Also, if CC flips Town, a lot of suspicion on Valmark.

When I'll flip Town, Valmark shouldn't be your priority.

After Night 1 there were surely 2 Cultists: Xihirli and whoever converted/was converted by her (or Town would have won with her lynching, unless strange shenanigans from the Narrator). Valmark was the one initiating Xihirli's wagon, so it's unlikely they were associated at the time. Thus, if you trust all the scrying results and Book Wombat's claim, only Libro and CaoihminTheCape remain. (Of course, Valmark could have been converted later, but this is another story and we can't even be sure a conversion actually happened during N2)

[Elenna]

Not only that but it's tecnically not a permanent +1 to town ranks- because we don't know if we can trust you and we can't prove that.
Even if you are an uncovertible Town member you're the only one who knows that- this makes it less useful then if we all could rally around a publicly confirmed one.

While he is a permanent +1 to the town ranks, that's just the same as anyone else the cult decides to not convert until the game ends. And Valmark is right we can't 100% trust CC until he dies.

I think the Captain Cap wagon is strong enough that I'm voting Davy Jones
Hoping someone votes AvatarVecna.

These are both good points. Switching my vote to AvatarVecna then.

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To clarify, I've decided that I want CC to be lynched, but since it seems like that will happen regardless of who I vote for, I might as well test out voting AV.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Even after the claim I think I'm still ok with the CC lynch. I really don't have a better option. To CC's point, there's the possibility that Libro was the original Cult member if CC is town, but I'm just not convinced enough to change votes. CC did try to defend Xi yesterday, which could have been Cult protecting Cult.

---

Vote Count:

Libro (1): Captain Cap
Captain Cap (4): Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape, The Outsider, Libro
Davy Jones (1): JeenLeen
Avatar Vecna (1): Elenna

Not Voting (2): Caerulea, Book Wombat

[JeenLeen]

For what it's worth, my mason buddy did discuss with me if we should try to lynch someone else today and scry Captain Cap tonight (to see if we get No Info). He wasn't pushing for that, just discussing. I guess saying this to point out that my buddy wasn't totally for Captain Cap's lynch, but neither seemed to really be defending Captain Cap.

Just adding the above in case it helps analysis later on, though I guess take it with a grain of salt as it's me relaying how I read someone else. (Well, actually adding the above since I wanted to type something serious while making the joke below.)

Vote Count:

Libro (1): Captain Cap
Captain Cap (4): Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape, The Outsider, Libro
Davy Jones (1): JeenLeen
Avatar Vecna (1): Elenna

Not Voting (2): Caerulea, Book Wombat

Funny last-minute move: Caerulea and Book Wombat vote AV. Captain Cap moves his vote to AV. The tie RNG decides AV dies, and we win!

[Valmark]

For what it's worth, my mason buddy did discuss with me if we should try to lynch someone else today and scry Captain Cap tonight (to see if we get No Info). He wasn't pushing for that, just discussing. I guess saying this to point out that my buddy wasn't totally for Captain Cap's lynch, but neither seemed to really be defending Captain Cap.

Just adding the above in case it helps analysis later on, though I guess take it with a grain of salt as it's me relaying how I read someone else. (Well, actually adding the above since I wanted to type something serious while making the joke below.)



Funny last-minute move: Caerulea and Book Wombat vote AV. Captain Cap moves his vote to AV. The tie RNG decides AV dies, and we win!

I had the same thought when it was brought up earlier- but discarded it rapidly. Unfortunately getting no info doesn't actually prove anything beyond that one sentence is correct.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Votes

Show

Libro: Captain Cap
Captain Cap: Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape, The Outsider, Libro
Davy Jones: JeenLeen

Not Voting: Book Wombat, Caerulea, definitely Elenna

Calling it now: tomorrow, everybody votes Davy Jones just to see what happens lol

End Of Day Three

This time, the good Captain could not avoid the noose. Despite the myriad of daring escapes he'd made in the past, this time he swung for sure.

Captain Cap was lynched. They were the Wild Card.

You are a townie, the Wild Card. The schemes you're constantly weaving through make it particularly difficult for the other pirates to predict most anything about your intentions or actions; unfortunately, you also think you're a good deal cleverer than you actually are. You are immune to all powers. Additionally, you are given false information about the extent of your powers:

You are a townie, the Wild Card. You are immune to all powers. Additionally, the schemes you're constantly weaving through make it particularly difficult for the dishonorable pirates to predict: if you are targeted by the scum faction power, not only does it fail that night, but it's unavailable the next night as well, and they are not informed of that.

Night Three Ends In 24 Hours

[JeenLeen]

Well, that's bad, but at least it's not a "stops the next night's conversion" bad.

Still bad.
I guess not much to say this night, beyond: thank you, Elenna, for going with the vote-on-AV idea. Guess we learn AV is not a legit lynch target.

[Valmark]

...I'm not happy about having been right about the power role looking fake.

[AvatarVecna]

I just went back and found Libro's vote so vote count has been amended to account for that. Just clarifying that it being left off Captain Cap wasn't a bastard narrator move, just a stupid narrator move that's been fixed now.

[JeenLeen]

I guess we could be lucky if the cult did target CC N2. It could still be 1 cultist around during D2, instead of the 2 we had assumed.

Okay; now I'm likely done with nightchat.

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[I]

End Of Day Three

Night Four Ends In 24 Hours

Is the Day 3, Night 4 a typo or chronomancy?

[AvatarVecna]

I guess we could be lucky if the cult did target CC N2. It could still be 1 cultist around during D2, instead of the 2 we had assumed.

Okay; now I'm likely done with nightchat.

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Is the Day 3, Night 4 a typo or chronomancy?

Typo agggh

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Well, that's bad, but at least it's not a "stops the next night's conversion" bad.

Still bad.
I guess not much to say this night, beyond: thank you, Elenna, for going with the vote-on-AV idea. Guess we learn AV is not a legit lynch target.

Weird that Davy Jones was though. Do we have an extra secret player in the game?

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Night Three

All was quiet through the night once more.

Day Four Ends In 48 Hours

[JeenLeen]

"Valmark is villager alignment."
Waiting on feedback from my buddy; don't know what he got yet.

My buddy did some analysis in our QuickTopic I haven't had the time to fully process, but it wound up with that either Cao, Libro, or Valmark would be the original cultist. This assumes that both he and I are true seers, and that I wasn't scum sacrificing Xi D2 for towncred.
Since Valmark got cleared, I'll go with Libro.

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Also, we figured that Book Wombat is likely to have baned either himself or me. Part of why my buddy hasn't claimed yet is that he didn't want the wolves to know who the other seer is. Of course, it's possible (likely) the wolves realized one of us would be baned... but we don't know if the wolves would try a bold move to get a powered person (even if 50% failure rate probable) or go with a safer convert. WIFOM, y'know.

Watcher/trackers (if you exist): I recommend y'all wait to talk until we hear who my buddy said they targeted and for Book Wombat to say they baned. Not saying you would claim this Day anyhow, but I advise against it in case we powered can be converted and the cult might've gotten one of us. I still think it's likely Libro is the original cultist, but if we can pinpoint a convert and eliminate them, that might be the better move (especially if lies and power-use seem to confirm a cultist, instead of likelihood analysis that's dependent on there being two true seers.)

[Book Wombat]

I baned myself.
Cult games are scary, you don't find out if someone got converted during the night.

[Valmark]

I baned myself.
Cult games are scary, you don't find out if someone got converted during the night.

I had the exact same thought when I saw AV's post, yes.

And I am waiting to see what JL's buddy comes up with.

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Speaking of which, Jeen, why can't The Outsider be the original? Or is it a "these people are more likely to be the original"?

[JeenLeen]

Speaking of which, Jeen, why can't The Outsider be the original? Or is it a "these people are more likely to be the original"?

N1 my buddy scried The Outsider and got villager.
Again, this is assuming we are both real seers and, if someone gets converted in a Night we target them, we see them as scum.

[Elenna]

I baned myself.
Cult games are scary, you don't find out if someone got converted during the night.

mm okay so JL isn't nearly-confirmed trustworthy anymore.

It seems unlikely that cult decided to try converting JL when they had a 50-50 chance of hitting the bane (assuming they, like me, figured out that BW would almost certainly target either themselves or JL). But if cult was already largish, maybe they would take the risk?

Not saying BW made the wrong decision (the banner being converted would also be really bad!) but just saying it's something to keep in mind.

That being said, I also came to a similar conclusion that Valmark, Caoimhin, and Libro were possible original cultists. But you have to recall that Xi could have been the original cultist, and we could be looking for conversions only.
JeenLeen, is there any reason to rule out the theory that Xi was the original? If not, it's possible JL's buddy knows Xi was the original cultist and is trying to send town on a wild goose chase...

[Valmark]

That being said, I also came to a similar conclusion that Valmark, Caoimhin, and Libro were possible original cultists. But you have to recall that Xi could have been the original cultist, and we could be looking for conversions only.
JeenLeen, is there any reason to rule out the theory that Xi was the original? If not, it's possible JL's buddy knows Xi was the original cultist and is trying to send town on a wild goose chase...

While not strong, I'd guess it's the risk of a game ending on D1 by putting only 1 starting cultist. At least I think that's the only reason.

[JeenLeen]

That being said, I also came to a similar conclusion that Valmark, Caoimhin, and Libro were possible original cultists. But you have to recall that Xi could have been the original cultist, and we could be looking for conversions only.
JeenLeen, is there any reason to rule out the theory that Xi was the original? If not, it's possible JL's buddy knows Xi was the original cultist and is trying to send town on a wild goose chase...

Um, probably not.
Real life has been a bit hectic yesterday afternoon and today, and I didn't fully take the time to understand my mason-buddy's reasoning, except it made sense from what I can tell. But it was mainly based on who was checked by us for cult. I suppose it's really that, of everyone scanned N1 onward, only JeenLeen, Cao, Libro, and Valmark weren't scanned through D3. (Well, and PoR, but he was dead.)
For tonight, my buddy was going to scan me, Book Wombat, or The Outsider, but I told him not to tell me beforehand.

In other words, we know the following (if we assume our scries were legitimate, our scries detect conversion the night it happened, and Book Wombat honest):
N1 = scried The Outsider and Xihirli
N2 = scried Caerulea and Elenna
N3 = scried <unknown> and Valmark
SO
Book Wombat = town N1 (as baned self). If not converted N2 (when baned JeenLeen), then still town (baned self N3)
Caerulea = town up through N2
CaoimhinTheCape = NO SCRY
Captain Cap = confirmed town via death
Elenna = town up through N2
JeenLeen = NO SCRY, but basically confirmed town through D2 since killed Xi
Libro = NO SCRY
PartyOfRouges = confirmed town via death
The Outsider = town up through N1
Valmark = town up through N3
Xihirli = scried as scum N1, killed D2 and confirmed cult

So the original cultist could be Cao, JeenLeen, Libro, or Xi.
But this is admittingly making assumptions that are unproven. E.g., no fool, neither seer is a lying cultist, and our scries detect conversion the night it happened

To be honest, Valmark looked incredibly suspicious given the voting history, but I scried him as Town and I'm willing to bet that, if there is a fool, it isn't me.
My buddy pointed out that it's unlikely he's a fool (or at least a 'always get wrong result fool') since he got villager on every scry thus far, and it'd be odd if we happened to pick the wolves for him to scry. On the other hand, my buddy could be a lying wolf--but I've basically been assuming since D1 that isn't the case, for the sake of "I really hope that isn't the case".
Although I admit, with Captain Cap's flip, I feel like powered can probably be converted, so I'm less trusting of my buddy from this Day onward.

[Valmark]

Geez, I forgot that Xi had been scried too. I'm really forgetting a lot of things this game too.

[JeenLeen]

Thinking how close we are to game's end. Assuming worst-case scenario that cult didn't lose a night of conversion by targeting Captain Cap or someone baned.
D1: 10 Town, 1 Cult --> 9 Town, 1 Cult (PoR dies)
N1: 9 Town, 1 Cult --> 8 Town, 2 Cult
D2: 8 Town, 2 Cult --> 8 Town, 1 Cult (Xi dies)
N2: 8 Town, 1 Cult --> 7 Town, 2 Cult
D3: 7 Town, 2 Cult --> 6 Town, 2 Cult (Captain Cap dies)
N3: 6 Town, 3 Cult --> 5 Town, 3 Cult

If we hit a wolf today
D4: 5 Town, 3 Cult --> 5 Town, 2 Cult
N4: 5 Town, 2 Cult --> 4 Town, 3 Cult
OR, if we fail:
D4: 5 Town, 3 Cult --> 4 Town, 3 Cult
N4: 4 Town, 3 Cult --> 3 Town, 4 Cult (CULT WINS)

So we really need to get a wolf today.
Alternatively, if we fail to get a wolf today and the game doesn't end as Day 5 breaks, we know at least one conversion attempt failed.
Also, this makes me think that the baner staying town is probably critically important. We need to prevent conversions. (If Book Wombat was converted N2, we're in bad shape.)

Geez, I forgot that Xi had been scried too. I'm really forgetting a lot of things this game too.

Dude, you keep looking so suspicious for someone I wanna believe to be confirmed Town

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Spoiler: Votes

Show

Libro: Captain Cap
Captain Cap: Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape, The Outsider, Libro
Davy Jones: JeenLeen

Not Voting: Book Wombat, Caerulea, definitely Elenna

Waiting on the buddy's night scry before jumping to any conclusions, but Jeen's logic seems to make sense. On a completely different note, does it mean anything that Davy Jones was an actual vote but AV wasn't?

[JeenLeen]

Got feedback: "The Outsider is villager alignment."
Again, not 100% reliable as we don't know for sure my buddy is still Town or not a fool, but, well, it's the same response he got for The Outsider N1.

Waiting on the buddy's night scry before jumping to any conclusions, but Jeen's logic seems to make sense. On a completely different note, does it mean anything that Davy Jones was an actual vote but AV wasn't?

I assume that was AV playing with us.

[Valmark]

Dude, you keep looking so suspicious for someone I wanna believe to be confirmed Town

My thoughts were "I won't be converted because I keep looking so suspicious" and I keep proving myself right :p

Speaking of which, why was my voting history suspicious? Besides the vote on Captain Cap, which I can understand (and I was right on the role being false! Even if it wasn't the kind of lie I thought it was).

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Mmm... So Caoimhin or Libro.

He contributed less, was less active, I feel like it's the better lynch out of them.

[JeenLeen]

Speaking of which, why was my voting history suspicious? Besides the vote on Captain Cap, which I can understand (and I was right on the role being false! Even if it wasn't the kind of lie I thought it was).

Mainly the Captain Cap vote. If there was more, I forget it. I recall some stuff thinking like "if X is wolf, then Valmark is probably wolf" (or something like that) from D1 or D2, but that was before we learned it was a cult game and all those if-thens lost a lot of meaning.