Smugglers & Scallywags

[JeenLeen]

All the details of their role that you need were revealed. They are a villager, and I've already said that I reveal roles on death. If there's not more information than that given, I think you can go ahead and take a guess at whether there is more information to be had.

...

I'll assume PoR was a vanillager, for now at least, but agreeing with what I read Elenna's sentiment to be that AV saying she'd reveal roles on death doesn't necessarily mean AV will really reveal roles on death.

This does (if info accurate) rule out the scenario of vanilla wolves and all-power Town. Which isn't much to confirm, but something. E.g., we can assume the wolves have some power roles.

[Elenna]

I'll assume PoR was a vanillager, for now at least, but agreeing with what I read Elenna's sentiment to be that AV saying she'd reveal roles on death doesn't necessarily mean AV will really reveal roles on death.

This does (if info accurate) rule out the scenario of vanilla wolves and all-power Town. Which isn't much to confirm, but something. E.g., we can assume the wolves have some power roles.

Yeah my point was basically that AV already made it clear that the starting post isn't always correct in this game, so I don't currently 100% believe that PoR was a vanillager. It would explain why they didn't claim, though, I guess.

Anyways, not much we can do about it now, without more info.

[AvatarVecna]

(ending a lil early for IRL reasons.)

Night One Ends

"All was quiet through the night, save for the sounds of hushed voices speaking in conspiratorial tones. Come morning, all their number were gathered together once more, with not a one of them missing or dead."

Day Two Will End In 48 Hours

(now that first day/night are done, we'll be doing 48 hour days/24 hour nights.)

[JeenLeen]

So a baner/voider is active and stopped the kill.
Also, nothing on anyone killing AV, so likely either a Town vigilante doesn't exist or targeting AV did nothing and thus got no feedback.

Voider, if you exist, want to say who you voided since that is probably a wolf who was doing the night-kill? Though I understand if you want to not claim and stay quiet for now... but, well, I'd think it's probably better you claim.

I'll put a starting vote on Elenna, as I think she's been the right mix of talking but not being super-active or adding a lot of content (not that there's a ton to add D1). Nothing overtly suspicious, but it's a good cover for a wolf trying to lay low. Also, if both PoR and The Outsider are town, that would make sense why she was happy keeping her vote on The Outsider.
Xi seems similar, I'll admit, but I'll stick with Elenna to start.

A bit busy now, but I've got a town read in Valmark and Captain Cap. To a lesser degree, townish read on The Outsider and Cao, but that might be their activity level more than anything else. Pretty much neutral on everyone else.

- - - Updated - - -

Thoughts on vig/baner: if a baner stopped the kill, it's possible that the wolves and vigilante both tried to kill the same person. If a vig exists. Just mentioning this to say we haven't 100% ruled out a vigilante. Just it's improbable.

[AvatarVecna]

Thoughts on vig/baner: if a baner stopped the kill, it's possible that the wolves and vigilante both tried to kill the same person. If a vig exists. Just mentioning this to say we haven't 100% ruled out a vigilante. Just it's improbable.

Plot twist: even when I'm narrator, everybody targets me N1 just in case.

[JeenLeen]

Plot twist: even when I'm narrator, everybody targets me N1 just in case.

Funny if you got the wolves that paranoid! Cao = mason

[The Outsider]

I'm going to go along with the vote on Elenna, because I can 100% see a wolf forming a wagon on a town member for "RNG reasons." I'm also suspicious of BookWombat and Libro, by virtue of lack of activity, and Xihirli, by virtue of being Xihirli. I don't have much of a read on Valmark or Captain Cap, and I have a Town lean for JeenLeen (because discussion and analysis), and Cao (because response to said analysis).

[JeenLeen]

I'm going to go along with the vote on Elenna, because I can 100% see a wolf forming a wagon on a town member for "RNG reasons." I'm also suspicious of BookWombat and Libro, by virtue of lack of activity, and Xihirli, by virtue of being Xihirli. I don't have much of a read on Valmark or Captain Cap, and I have a Town lean for JeenLeen (because discussion and analysis), and Cao (because response to said analysis).

Based on D1 voting by Elenna, and this post, I think we can conclude:
If Elenna is wolf, The Outsider is Town.
If The Outsider is wolf, Elenna is Town.

Of course, both could be Town. That is, the inverse statements are not necessarily true.
I think we can probably figure out some similar if-then stuff related to Valmark and/or Captain Cap from D1, but I don't have the time to reread D1 right now.

I do think it's likely, though:
if Captain Cap is wolf, Xihirli is Town
since Xi started pressure late D1 on Captain Cap. Though I could see wolf!Xi doing that as a risky distancing gambit on wolf!CC... just doubtful.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

My instinct is that the two main wagons yesterday were town. Might be foolish to dismiss that, but it seemed like no one was really pushing to protect either of them, meaning wolves probably didn't care.

Spoiler: PoR votes

Show

To start I shall do an RNG vote:
- It's a piece of eight!

PartyOfRouges

Rando vote that stuck through the day. First post of the day, so a little surprised there was no change in vote but ehh, it's day 1.

Sorry for the lateness, you unscrupulous sharks, I was just waiting an important cargo from the South. And don't worry, I'm not going to tell you a thing about it: pirates or not, you're all slimy scum jealous of my riches, especially you, PartyOfRogues.

Also an early vote, puts a third person at 2 votes apiece. CC had two votes at this point.

Alright, this game has been way too silent. Let's take an hard stance.

PartyOfRogues, then. Anybody got anything to say?

Valmark deciding to make something happen.

Oh boy, stuff happened while I was away. Well, to start with, self-preservation vote on PartyofRouges.

Self-preservation.

Looking back, the most suspicious vote might have been Valmark - it's definitely possible that Wolf!Valmark was trying to protect either Book Wombat or Captain Cap by pushing someone into the lead for votes. That said, it felt Townish yesterday and I'm not convinced enough to vote Valmark yet.

This is a weird question to ask and answer. If the truth is "no, I can't be targeted", then I'd say "no, I can't be targeted". If the truth is "yes, I can be targeted", then I'd say "no, I can't be targeted". So...

No, I can't be targeted.

It's possible AV can't be targeted and a potential Vig got a response indicating that. Or that a vig got voided. Or it's possible we don't have a Vig.

I'm not super serious about this, but there's also the possibility we don't have any bad guys? Maybe?

So a baner/voider is active and stopped the kill.
Also, nothing on anyone killing AV, so likely either a Town vigilante doesn't exist or targeting AV did nothing and thus got no feedback.

Voider, if you exist, want to say who you voided since that is probably a wolf who was doing the night-kill? Though I understand if you want to not claim and stay quiet for now... but, well, I'd think it's probably better you claim.

I kinda disagree with Voider revealing right now? It's not terrible if there is one and they claim but I'd suggest staying hidden and blocking the same person again. Last night seemed to go well, so I wouldn't shake things up.

If it was a Doc save (and doc got confirmation it was a save) you now know one other townsperson and I'd stay hidden.



Lacking any strong wolf reads, I'm going to vote: Book Wombat for having one post. Mostly want to get people in here discussing things.


Vote Count:

Elenna (2): JeenLeen, The Outsider
Book Wombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting (7): Book Wombat, Caerulea, Captain Cap, Elenna, Libro, Valmark, Xihirli

[Valmark]

I kinda agree that Elenna could be a wolf by virtue of putting a second vote for random then being seemingly unconcerned with the two wagons formed- it's not strong but there isn't much to say.

That said, we are currently at 2 votes for her and 1 for BW, so putting a third vote on her at this moment doesn't do much.

I don't feel like voting BW for lack of posting so I want to put a vote on Xihirli- it's completely in her MO to ignore the two main wagons and vote a third party to try and lie low IF the two wagons are Town both.
You know... watching Town tear each other apart.

Hell, it's in her MO to start a wagon on a wolf even, though I'll hardly pursue this train of thought.

I kinda expect TO to be Town if Xihirli is Wolf- and TO hasn't done anything that smells Wolf, so it would suit perfectly.

No, I'm not overly convinced given how this is a lot of dubious gut feeling, but it's better then nothing and voting Elenna right now wouldn't change anything.

On another note, I feel like Captain Cap asking to move votes somewhere when PoR was up for the lynch speaks as Townie- why stick your neck out as a Wolf trying to move discussion when the wagon is perfect for you?

[JeenLeen]

I kinda agree that Elenna could be a wolf by virtue of putting a second vote for random then being seemingly unconcerned with the two wagons formed- it's not strong but there isn't much to say.

That said, we are currently at 2 votes for her and 1 for BW, so putting a third vote on her at this moment doesn't do much.

I don't feel like voting BW for lack of posting so I want to put a vote on Xihirli- it's completely in her MO to ignore the two main wagons and vote a third party to try and lie low IF the two wagons are Town both.
You know... watching Town tear each other apart.

Hell, it's in her MO to start a wagon on a wolf even, though I'll hardly pursue this train of thought.

I kinda expect TO to be Town if Xihirli is Wolf- and TO hasn't done anything that smells Wolf, so it would suit perfectly.

No, I'm not overly convinced given how this is a lot of dubious gut feeling, but it's better then nothing and voting Elenna right now wouldn't change anything.

I admit those are good points, and Xi is probably my second choice for the vote.
I look forward to seeing how discussion goes... assuming more folk start posting. What's up with the quiet Day so far? It wasn't even the weekend yet (though I guess it is now, when I'm making this post.)

On another note, I feel like Captain Cap asking to move votes somewhere when PoR was up for the lynch speaks as Townie- why stick your neck out as a Wolf trying to move discussion when the wagon is perfect for you?

I also noticed, by reading the votes on PoR quoted/noted by Cao, that Captain Cap put a 2nd vote on PoR when Captain Cap already had 2 votes on himself. But there was another 2-vote wagon. If Captain Cap were a wolf just trying to save his own skin, I reckon he would have done a self-preservation vote instead of another competing wagon.
So that's some towncred.
Marginal towncred, as it's early enough D1 and he easily (and, as self-preservation, safely) could have changed his vote later, but still towncred.

- - - Updated - - -

NOTE: It's late and I'm tired, so I didn't double-check the D1 posts to make sure Cao's statements were accurate. Also, as it's the weekend, I'll probably be posting limited-ish until... well, actually Tuesday since I have Monday off work. But I'll still check in at least in the evening.

[Xihirli]

...TO? Whozzat?

I'll repeat my suspicions of Captain Cap, who did not seem to have anything to say about his random vote becoming a wagon even when pressured. Not married to the vote, but let's see if anyone found something out last night.

[The Outsider]

...TO? Whozzat?

*quietly raises hand*
hai

I had another thought, but I lost it. I'll come back and post it if I can remember.

[Captain Cap]

I agree that Elenna seems the most suspicious right now (even if not by much): she started the first wagon, allegedly targeting The Outsider for no other reasons than RNG, then kept her vote on them until the end. Taken together, there something that doesn't really convince about these two points: If she's Town, I'd assume her initial intent was to get some activity (and that's reasonable), but in the end we didn't get much from the two main wagons (POR and TO), so why didn't she move her vote, or at least, if she didn't want to get PartyOfRouges lynched, why didn't she propose a new course of action?
However I'm perfectly aware this is not much, nor I'm really convinced she's a wolf. There are already 2 votes on her, so for now I feel more at ease poking either Book Wombat or Libro (choosing the first because they have already a vote, thus the poke should me more effective).

I don't feel like voting BW for lack of posting so I want to put a vote on Xihirli- it's completely in her MO to ignore the two main wagons and vote a third party to try and lie low IF the two wagons are Town both.
You know... watching Town tear each other apart.

While definitely possible, I don't think there's enough to justify suspicions on her. Her vote on me was reasonable and, given the two main wagons were a bit stagnant, pushing on a third one wasn't a bad idea.

[Valmark]

AV, you really made the weekend's role power too strong- killing multiple people during the Day? Too broken.

Jokes aside, it's kinda hard to find something to discuss if half of the player total isn't posting. Hopefully somebody will show up, because not much else to say right now (at least personally.

[Xihirli]

Alright, Captain Cap's won some town points for that last post so I'll poke Libro for activity.


Um, byar-har-har.

[Elenna]

Sorry for vanishing, I blame Stardew Valley. How dare it be a good game.

I'm not quite sure why putting a second RNG vote on someone is being regarded as suspicious? I think we can agree that creating D1 wagons (as opposed to scattered single votes) is usually a pro-town move - not saying wolves can't do it to blend in, but on average it helps town more - and there wasn't anything else to base a vote on at that point. I don't think using RNG at that point in the game is particularly suspicious.

I kinda understand the argument that I apparently didn't care who got lynched after that, but that just means I was a townie who had no preference between the three main wagons, so I had no reason to change my vote. I think most people didn't have a preference, really.

Commenting on posts:

Alright, this game has been way too silent. Let's take an hard stance.

PartyOfRogues, then. Anybody got anything to say?

- - - Updated - - -

Right, I should speak up first.

It's kind of an arbitrary decision from the biggest wagons- in this case I went for the one that is usually the least online.

This *could* be a defense of one of the other 2-vote wagons at this time? I did mention that voting for a quiet player to encourage discussion felt weird. But there doesn't seem to be much of a reason for a wolf to want PoR dead, specifically, and other than this Valmark looks good to me.
So I'm not going to vote Valmark now, but if one of the other early D1 wagons flips wolf (especially Outsider), town should definitely take a closer look.

JeenLeen's long post on the roles, tie possibilities, etc gets town points. Not so much because it contains anything a wolf wouldn't say, more because it feels like JeenLeen making a concerted effort to start discussion.
That being said, if Captain Cap flips wolf it might be worth taking another look at that post where JeenLeen lists the "two main wagons" without mentioning that CC was only one vote behind them?

Captain Cap calling for people to switch off of PoR looks good - I think a wolf in that situation would just keep quiet and let people lynch a townie. Especially because he was also a large wagon. Probably my highest town read right now.

Also just in general a slight town lean on CaoimhinTheCape for high activity levels and solid posts.

The discussion about the tiebreaker is pretty much all NAI, since wolves want to figure out tie rules too.

Lacking any strong wolf reads, I'm going to vote: Book Wombat for having one post. Mostly want to get people in here discussing things.

Eh, it's not a terrible reason for a vote (I don't have any strong wolf reads either), but Book Wombat is usually fairly quiet, I think.
Actually, why'd you pick BW and not Libro? I think Libro is generally more talkative but I'm not sure.

I could see wolf!Xihirli, maybe, but the argument against her seems to be mostly based on gut feeling and the guess that TO is town, so I don't think it's really enough for me to vote her.

I'm thinking lynching The Outsider would give more info than a vote on either BW or Libro, since I don't have any real wolf suspects.

No deaths

There's four possibilities I can think of for why there weren't any deaths tonight:
1. Baner protected the target
2. Voider voided the right wolf (assuming this is a game where one specific wolf does the kill, and not a collective wolf power)
3. We have a townie with a one-shot unkillable power or something similar
4. Wolves didn't kill anyone (maybe they were all absent, or they tried to kill AV or something?)

I don't think a baner should speak up. They don't know for sure that the person they tried to protect is town, since there are other possibilities. And even if the person is town, they're likely to have a less powerful role than baner, so it's not worth basically sacrificing the baner by revealing.

It might be worth it for the voider to speak up? The advantage of revealing a probably-wolf is bigger than the advantage of revealing a probably-town, and the disadvantage of losing a voider is lower than the disadvantage of losing a baner.
Probably depends on who the voided person was, too. If the voider thinks town is likely to lynch their target anyways, they shouldn't say anything.

IMO if someone has an unkillable power and knows they lost it, they shouldn't say anything. IT's not worth it, if only because there's no way to verify that they're telling the truth.

We can't really do anything about possibility #4, but I don't think it's particularly likely that all wolves were AFK, since everyone posted D1.

[The Outsider]

It might be worth it for the voider to speak up? The advantage of revealing a probably-wolf is bigger than the advantage of revealing a probably-town, and the disadvantage of losing a voider is lower than the disadvantage of losing a baner.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a voider would have spoken up by now. I know that if I were a voider and there were no kills, one of my first posts would be to announce this fact. Granted, said voider might be worried about anonymity, but in a two-wolf game eliminating half of the enemy team is a worthy sacrifice to make. So in short, I'm thinking the night kill is more likely to be the result of a bane or wolves targeting AV.

[Grand Arbiter]

I'll poke Libro for activity.

Alas, I have naught to share except that housekeeping is a *****.

Caerulea, I don't suppose there's any cake left?

Spoiler: OOC

Show

Poke vote since nobody is pinging wolf to me.

Having only D1 lynch data to go on for data really doesn't help trying to figure out who's guilty, or if there even are any guilty parties.

I'm also suspicious of ... Libro, by virtue of lack of activity

I'm usually quiet unless I'm really feeling the role-play side of the game.

[JeenLeen]

I've also contemplated if there are masons or not in the game. Keep in mind that AV said she won't confirm alignment/roles except at death. If you have a mason-buddy that isn't confirmed town, well, keep in mind they aren't confirmed town.

My mason-buddy might be mad about this, but... I feel persuaded by The Outsider's rationale that it's more likely a baner knows a townie than a voider voided the wolf.
So, baner, willing to protect a seer tonight?

I'm a seer; or at least was told I'm a seer. Scried Xihirli last night and got a scum read. I'm also mason-buddies with someone claiming to also a Town seer. But neither of us have narrator-confirmation about anything about the other. E.g., my buddy could be a wolf for all I know. But late D1 I decided to trust him and say I'm a seer. He said he was a seer, too.
We assumed and discussed that it's likely one of the following is true

• one of us is a lying wolf with the power to be masons with a townie
• we're both Town, but someone (town or wolf) has a power to make a pair of masons. Maybe they benefit from it, like the Enchantress in Aventine's witch hunt, maybe not.
• we're both Town, but one of us is a fool and the other a real seer. (I could see AV finding it funny to put us together and see when/if we trust each other or accuse each other as wolves)
• we're both Town, and both real seers. (Doubtful as overpowered, but since paranoia might make us distrust each other, possible.)

He got someone as a townie, for what it's worth, but that person seems safe enough for now, so I don't think it's worth revealing who that is yet.

Why did I vote Elenna, then?
My mason-buddy had the idea of us waiting to reveal our results or pursue them until we had another night's worth of scries or someone flipped and we had better intel on which one of us is a fool.
Also, my reasoning on Elenna is legitimate reasoning. She'd be my main vote based on non-power-based analysis thus far. But all my reasons against her from D1 stuff also basically apply to Xi. And, while her D2 talk could be Town, it could also be a wolf trying to look Town... though I admit it looks pretty Town.

But I feel, with how quiet things have been, and how... talking but not saying much... Xi has been (which she often does when wolf), that I'd go ahead and test my power and make a claim.
Also, I might be online a bit more tonight, but probably won't be online again tomorrow before Day ends. So now is basically my last chance to say something worthwhile Day 2.

If Xi flips wolf, I'll probably trust my buddy less, since the plan of not pursuing Xi today would be good for the wolves killing me tonight if he and Xi are the wolves. It doesn't prove he's a wolf, but it makes it more probable. (I probably still won't out him, but might target him N2.)
If Xi flips Town, I'm pretty sure my buddy is Town and I'm the fool. (Note we'd also be uncertain if, as a fool, we always get a wrong answer or might, based on RNG get a wrong answer. If we take opening post very literally that there's only one element of randomness, then it must be a fool always gets it wrong as ties are randomly determined, but I don't know if we can trust that.)

- - - Updated - - -

EDIT/CONFIRM: I did remember to strike-through my old vote. Reminder to others that such is not optional this game.

- - - Updated - - -

3) This game will feature one small element of random chance. No, I will not specify what that is.

@AV: Not asking you to specify what it is (though we reckon the tie vote rolls), but are you willing to confirm if there's truly one element of random chance verses potentially multiple?

Also, to everyone: AV did confirm that, if a mason dies, their being a mason is part of the power reveal.

[Xihirli]

Yarr, ye be an accursed liar besmirchin' me honor. Hold for the wind, throw the sails in the water. Drop the anchor and walk the plank, here there be monsters!

So this is pretty bold and I have a policy of rewarding boldness, so what's say we all kill JeenLeen after you all see my flip, and realize that Xihirli is a name to be ever trusted and followed without questions or suspicion.

[Elenna]

Okay then Xihirli, let's do some seer-testing.

Also, to everyone: AV did confirm that, if a mason dies, their being a mason is part of the power reveal.

Assuming JeenLeen is telling the truth about this (and assuming AV told JL the truth), that should confirm PoR was a vanillager. Not that it matters too much right now, but good to know.

[AvatarVecna]

@AV: Not asking you to specify what it is (though we reckon the tie vote rolls), but are you willing to confirm if there's truly one element of random chance verses potentially multiple?

I will confirm that there is only one element of random chance, per the OP. I'll also point out the OP contains at least two partial lies that you know of already, so how much weight you give that confirmation is up to you.

[The Outsider]

Interesting. I'll go with the vote on Xihirli, if for no other reason than a personal policy of voting people who-self-vote.

[Captain Cap]

Let's make Xihirli walk the plank then, and see what we can learn.

[Xihirli]

May I dance the plank?

[Valmark]

I get the feeling that Xi is either the Beast role or a Vanillager, but there aren't many other ways to test this out.

- - - Updated - - -

Also my money is either on Xi being Town or Jeen's buddy being a traitor. Lynching Xi to test this out seems fair still.

Just because two Seer Masons seem a bit too much, no actual proof.

[Book Wombat]

I'll vote Xihirli then.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Well, let's test us a Seer Xihirli.

---

Vote Count:

Xihirli (8): Valmark, JeenLeen, Xihirli, Elenna, The Outsider, Captain Cap, Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape
Caerulea (1): Libro

Not Voting (1): Caerulea

[Caerulea]

Sorry for not getting on earlier everyone. Here's my thoughts:

I was going to put a second vote on you, Elenna, to get discussion going, but since you just formed a wagon on someone, I'll form another one by putting a vote on Book Wombat instead.

This post feels very weird. The only reason I can think of to not put a vote on Elenna here when you were intending to, is that it's too risky; you're afraid she will actually get lynched. This post makes me think that Elenna and JeenLeen are on the same team.

He then claims that during night one he was made a mason with Elenna. Which makes me question his day one post even more. Combined with the hard accuse on Xihirli, I think we should kill JeenLeen.

That said, this vote ain't gonna change anything anyway. Xihirli will die, but I'm voting in protest.

Caerulea, I don't suppose there's any cake left?

Tragically the entire thing went missing a day later, with just an icing crusted plate left behind. Darnedest thing.