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  1. - Top - End - #91
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    He then claims that during night one he was made a mason with Elenna. Which makes me question his day one post even more. Combined with the hard accuse on Xihirli, I think we should kill JeenLeen.
    When did Jeen say he was masons with Elenna? I didn't think that Jeen claimed who the mason buddy was, but given the post I assumed that it definitely wasn't Elenna (or you, for that matter).

  2. - Top - End - #92
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    That said, this vote ain't gonna change anything anyway. Xihirli will die, but I'm voting in protest.
    Hey, Im willing to change my vote if this gets momentum.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceseer View Post
    I really wanted what Xihirli said to be true though.
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    You can trust her to be completely insane; and probably to backstab you.
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  3. - Top - End - #93
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    When did Jeen say he was masons with Elenna? I didn't think that Jeen claimed who the mason buddy was, but given the post I assumed that it definitely wasn't Elenna (or you, for that matter).
    My reading abilities are apparently lacking. Oops. Rereading the post he doesn't say who it is, but for some reason I read it earlier as implied Elenna. My bad.

    (The other part of my post still holds.)
    Non caerulea sum, Caerulea nomen meum est.
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  4. - Top - End - #94
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    He then claims that during night one he was made a mason with Elenna. Which makes me question his day one post even more. Combined with the hard accuse on Xihirli, I think we should kill JeenLeen.
    Yeah, JL isn't claiming to be buddies with me. They're claiming that a) they've been a seer/mason the whole time, not just since N1 and b) they're buddies with some other non-me person, who encouraged them to wait to claim their scry, which is why they initially accused me.

    Side note, I think this "delay claiming your scry" plan is sus, especially since they had reason to think there was probably a baner in the game (from the lack of NK), and because two seer/masons would be pretty OP so there's reason to think one or both of them doesn't really have a scry. If Xi flips wolf I'd definitely like to take a closer look at JL's buddy.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Caerulea, this is a pirate game, not a ninja game!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    My reading abilities are apparently lacking. Oops. Rereading the post he doesn't say who it is, but for some reason I read it earlier as implied Elenna. My bad.

    (The other part of my post still holds.)
    So you still think JL is more worth voting than the person they apparently scried as a wolf, just based on that one D1 post?
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  5. - Top - End - #95
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Yeah, JL isn't claiming to be buddies with me. They're claiming that a) they've been a seer/mason the whole time, not just since N1 and b) they're buddies with some other non-me person, who encouraged them to wait to claim their scry, which is why they initially accused me.
    I don't think them being masons from game start is consistent with their post, because they raised the possibility of there being an enchantress when discussing the alignment possiblities of their partner. Such a person would need an opportunity to use their power, leading to them being made masons after N1. If they were indeed paired from the beginning of the game, then why raise this option as you can rule it out yourself?

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Side note, I think this "delay claiming your scry" plan is sus, especially since they had reason to think there was probably a baner in the game (from the lack of NK), and because two seer/masons would be pretty OP so there's reason to think one or both of them doesn't really have a scry. If Xi flips wolf I'd definitely like to take a closer look at JL's buddy.
    I think, based on what AV said, that theres a chance that the wolves targeted her last night. But maybe I'm being silly again. That said, there's probably a baner.


    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    So you still think JL is more worth voting than the person they apparently scried as a wolf, just based on that one D1 post?
    I'm voting for the person I suspect the most, cause my vote won't change anything either way.
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  6. - Top - End - #96
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    @Caerulea: JL was referring to the enchantress in Witch-hunt, whose power is to create a pair of lovers before the game starts (and they get benefits while the lovers survive).
    Anyways JL mentioned taking to their partner D1, so they're not claiming to have been made a mason in the night.
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  7. - Top - End - #97
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    To clarify, I've been a mason since game started. It wasn't until late D1 that we told our powers to each other. I presume one of us is a fool-seer or a wolf, since it otherwise seems overpowered. But it's hard to tell what.

    The main reason I waited to say anything was
    1) my buddy recommended we wait
    2) I didn't want to draw the wolves' attention to me (assuming my buddy is Town)
    3) I did have suspicions on Elenna
    Also, while I had concluded there was a baner or voider that stopped the death N1, I wasn't sure which. The Outsider's arguements put me towards thinking there's a baner. That made me feel more comfortable claiming. Especially if Xi flips wolf and it proves I'm not the fool (or, if I'm a fool, there's a chance of a right answer and I was fortunate.)

    Also, after I made my claim, my buddy said I should reveal who he got the Town read on.
    I'm debating about if I should reveal that yet. If my buddy is a wolf, then there's a reason they want that revealed. Or maybe they just said that to help gain towncred. Hmm...
    This is an odd qeustion to ask, but: @everyone: if you were the one scried by my buddy last night, would you like me to reveal his result on you?
    Based on timing, it'll probably be Night when I state it.

  8. - Top - End - #98
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    End Of Day Two


    "I think it was her!"

    "And why do you think that?"

    "Well I investigated somebody else last night and found what looks like royal cargo in their ship, but I didn't wanna play my hand too soon."

    "Uh...so do we go with the person you said before, or the person you investigated?"

    "...the latter, I guess. Any last words, bilge-rat?"

    "My life for Cthulhu! Wait..." [takes out notecards] "Who is it we worship? Thrghfv... is that a hard qxxxq sound? Is that a FIVE? Okay, let me try... Ah!" And overboard she went.


    Spoiler: Votes
    Show
    Xihirli: Valmark, JeenLeen, Xihirli, Elenna, The Outsider, Captain Cap, Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape
    Caerulea: Libro
    JeenLeen: Caerulea


    Xihirli was lynched. She was a Cultist.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cultist Role
    You're looking to form a fleet of pirate lords strong enough to push back against the royal navy, and to do that you're going to need gold coins and silver tongues. Each night, all cultists will discuss/vote on who to convert. If successful, the conversion will join the cult chat.
    Night Two Ends In 24 Hours


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  9. - Top - End - #99
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Caerulea View Post
    This post feels very weird. The only reason I can think of to not put a vote on Elenna here when you were intending to, is that it's too risky; you're afraid she will actually get lynched. This post makes me think that Elenna and JeenLeen are on the same team.
    What I meant there was that I was going to put a 2nd vote on Elenna, but decided not to since she had done the action of putting a 2nd vote on someone. Since someone eventually needs to put a second vote on someone to get discussion going, I felt it was worth rewarding that by not putting a vote on her.

    As I led a wagon on her today, I don't see why it seems like we'd be on the same team. I can see doing distancing like that D1; in fact, I thought about putting a vote on my buddy D1 for distancing, but then decided not to. But D2 distancing seems an odd thing to do.

    - - - Updated - - -

    NOTE: MY POST ABOVE WAS NINJA'D BY AV. WOW TO KNOW I GOT A CULTIST. WILL POST MORE LATER TONIGHT.

  10. - Top - End - #100
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    **** this is a cult game.
    We might not have a baner after all.
    I won an argument with my GM -15/08/2017- (20:32 GMT +1)

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  11. - Top - End - #101
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    **** this is a cult game.
    We might not have a baner after all.
    Bastard narrator strikes again. Imagine if this happened EoD4 instead of EoD2.


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  12. - Top - End - #102
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Bastard narrator strikes again. Imagine if this happened EoD4 instead of EoD2.
    I'd rather not :p
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  13. - Top - End - #103
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Troubling news.
    Likely 1 cultist at game start. Which means basically all the "if X is wolf, Y is Town" stuff from D1 is null.
    Thus, presumably still 1 cultist around, and there'll be 2 by Night's end.
    Note there could be a cultist and a wolf. Maybe the wolf was stopped by voider/baner. But I'd guess not, as opposed to the event that the wolf-kill happened to be stopped.

    From my scry results, AV said that Xi was "scum". Not sure what that datum is worth, but I wanted to state the exact word for the alignment. My buddy told me The Outsider was read as Town... but that means less if there's a cult around.
    If anybody happened to watch if someone targeted The Outsider last night, but nobody did, please speak up.

    Gonna have to think more what this means about potentially outting my buddy. I guess a cultist who started the game a mason with a townie is a good position for a solo cultist, to help keep them from dying D1. On the other hand, I want to let my buddy speak in their defense privately first.

  14. - Top - End - #104
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    ...Oh. Um. I guess there's a cult now!
    Will have to rethink possible connections when day comes.

    I agree there was probably only one cultist at the start. Two seems like a lot for this small of a game.

    Actually, given the information we currently have, any number of cultists is too much. If they convert one player a night, and we lynch one player a day, the cultists are guaranteed to win eventually even if we lynch a cultist every single day, because they'll always have 2 players at the start of a day but the total number of living players will keep going down.
    So there must be something we don't know.

    Here's the possibilities I see:
    - There's a town vig who can lynch cultists at night. I can't imagine AV doing this as the only solution, though, because town would be screwed if the vig happened to die early.
    - There's a wolf faction in addition to the cult faction, who could NK the cult and who would presumably be unconvertible. Kinda unlikely given the lack of a night kill, but maybe there really was a baner or voider or something?
    - A significant fraction of town is unconvertible. The cult role PM that AV posted does seem to imply that conversions might not be successful??

    TL;DR I wouldn't rule out the possibility of having both wolves and cult, for balance purposes.
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  15. - Top - End - #105
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Part of me feels like the powered Town should speak up and we might be able to nip the cult in the bud.
    On the other hand, that gives the cult/wolves who to target.
    I just wish I knew if there was a vigilante, baner, and/or voider. Kinda regretting no private communication.

    If Xi flipped mafia-type wolf, I'd probably be naming my mason-buddy as a probable wolf. But Xi flipped cultist.
    I doubt my buddy converted Xi, since he knew I was targeting her. It's also -- just by probability -- unlikely that my buddy got converted N1 as opposed to anyone else. So I'll trust he's not the original cultist. Maybe our potentially overpowered duo is to counter a cult existing?
    If my buddy were mafia, there's be no strong reason for him not to want to lynch Xi or keep me from claiming anything. So that eliminates my reason for thinking him a mafia.
    So I guess I'm trusting my mason buddy for now. Still kinda want to rat him out, but it was a gamble to trust him N1, and that seemed to work. I'll continue to trust him.

    ---

    Was Xi the original cultist?
    Xi is a good player, but also extremely likely to draw suspicion. So I kinda doubt the someone would have converted her N1. That makes me think she might be the original cultist. On the other hand, they might have taken her as a skilled player, so who knows...

    But, assuming Xi was the original cultist, who would she convert?
    Probably someone active. Definitely not me, as I got her killed. I agree with Elenna that probably not Cearulea, since Caerulea got way too upset at voting Xi for it to be a fellow cultist. (Unless she was going for a bold WIFOM thought to keep her safe.)
    But "someone active" includes a lot of people...

    ----

    Also, a clarification from my buddy (correcting me): The Outsider was "villager" alignment. Doesn't seem relevantly different than "Town", but want to share it accurately. Again, I was told "scum" for Xi.


    ...and I guess that's it for Night chat from me. I probably won't be online again (except maybe later tonight) until after Night ends. Here's hoping I'm still alive/Town.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Interesting. I'll go with the vote on Xihirli, if for no other reason than a personal policy of voting people who-self-vote.
    I acknowledge The Outsider voted Xi, after I claimed her as scum.
    And I acknowledge The Outsider seemed pretty Town after D1, and I liked his going with me on voting Elenna at first during D2.

    However, my buddy did get a Villager read on him. And I got scum on Xi. If one of us is a fool, that makes it probable that The Outsider is scum.
    Vigilante, if you exist, mind shooting The Outsider to see how he flips?

    If he flips Town, then maybe we have two real seers. That, or there's a random element to the fool's reads. (I saw AV's answer to my question about random elements, but it seems unhelpful.) If he flips cultist/wolf, we're closer to winning.

  16. - Top - End - #106
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    Flumph

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I'm going to step in here and say vig, you really shouldn't do that for a multitude of reasons.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  17. - Top - End - #107
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Also, a clarification from my buddy (correcting me): The Outsider was "villager" alignment. Doesn't seem relevantly different than "Town", but want to share it accurately. Again, I was told "scum" for Xi.
    Mmm... What I gather from my private message and your result is that AvatarVecna seems to use the "town/scum" nomenclature in QTs, while "villager/cultist" for public posts. It should also be noted that "villager" is the only term officially referencing town that a cultist would have been aware of in Night 1, from the execution of PartyOfRogues (in the OP and the quote of Cultist Role there doesn't seem to be any mention of town/villager); I guess for a wolf it would be same.
    Maybe I'm a bit paranoid, but the idea of a mysterious Seer/Fool associated right off the bat with another Seer is fishy.

    Also, I don't really agree with this invitation.
    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    However, my buddy did get a Villager read on him. And I got scum on Xi. If one of us is a fool, that makes it probable that The Outsider is scum.
    Vigilante, if you exist, mind shooting The Outsider to see how he flips?

    If he flips Town, then maybe we have two real seers. That, or there's a random element to the fool's reads. (I saw AV's answer to my question about random elements, but it seems unhelpful.) If he flips cultist/wolf, we're closer to winning.
    You're asking a Vigilante to shoot down someone based on a "villager" read from a guy we, the public, basically know nothing about... doesn't sound much right to me.
    It wouldn't probably be a bad idea if a Fool ALWAYS gets a wrong result, but that is not the case from what I read about the role.
    Thinks he is a seer. Is told that he is a seer. When a fool gets his foresight in the evening, he gets a random chance as to what he sees when he points somebody out. When he points to the Seer, he will always see the Fool, and vice versa.
    For this game things could be different, but there are multiple ways a Fool could get both wrong and right results without invoking randomness, so how would a "town" read from a Fool reveal The Outsider as probable scum?
    Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-01-18 at 02:36 AM.

  18. - Top - End - #108
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I know I'm being rather quiet but I don't really know what to say currently. I might post something on D3.
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I can see the arguments against shooting The Outsider.

    I know that Fools can often get random results, but I want to doubt that's the case in this game. We've had games where the fool always gets it wrong, although AV's last game had fools have a randomized chance. Part of my thought for a non-random fool is that
    1) it's unlikely we're both true seers
    2) AV said there's only 1 element of randomness
    3) we know that lynch-ties have an element of randomness

    One possible conclusion is that one of the seers is a fool, and that the fool always gets wrong results.
    But other possibilities include
    1) one of the 'seers' is a lying wolf
    2) one of the seers is a fool with random results, and AV was lying that there is one random element
    3) we're both real seers (doubtful, but possible if there's a cult and a mafia, maybe possible if there's just a cult with limited way to stop it)
    It's also possible they're the real seer and I the Fool, but I got lucky in getting an honest read on Xihirli.

    But killing The Outsider would help hone in on which conclusion is true. Not hone in a lot, I admit, if he flips Town, as doesn't do a lot to help pinpoint anything. But if he flips Wolf, especially Cult, we can safely conclude that we're both non-Cult (or at least were such before this Night ends) and lean towards I'm real and he's the fool.

  20. - Top - End - #110
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    End Of Night Two


    Once more, the night was quiet...but now you know that doesn't mean it was necessarily going well...


    Day Three Ends In 48 Hours


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  21. - Top - End - #111
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    It is good day to be not dead!

    In all seriousness though, let's lay out the possibilities since I wasn't gruesomely murdered by a vig.

    Option 1: We don't have a vig.
    Option 2: I was baned for some reason.
    Option 3: A voider unintentionally or intentionally targeted the vig.
    Option 4: Vig chose not to shoot.
    Option 5: Vig tried to shoot someone else who was baned.

    I'm going to say that Option 4 is unlikely, since in a cult game it's essential that vig kill off people who are even remotely suspicious. And since no baners or voiders have spoken up, we can't know if options 2,3, or 5 happened. I'm going to then operate under the assumption that Option 1 is correct, and we don't have a vig.

    So what does that mean? Well, if it's just cultists and seers and vanillagers, there's no way for the Town to win, since we can't kill faster than the cultists can convert. I'm going to make the assumption that AV isn't going to set up an unwinnable game- not because I don't think they would, but because there's no point in analyzing if the game's unwinnable. So, assuming it isn't an unwinnable game, my guess is that one of the wolves is a Cult Leader, and that our immediate goal should be to isolate and lynch said leader so that they can't make more cultists.

    Tl;dr There's either a cult leader or missing information.

    Please speak up and prove me wrong. Speaking of speaking up, any info from our seers?
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  22. - Top - End - #112
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    It is good day to be not dead!

    In all seriousness though, let's lay out the possibilities since I wasn't gruesomely murdered by a vig.

    Option 1: We don't have a vig.
    Option 2: I was baned for some reason.
    Option 3: A voider unintentionally or intentionally targeted the vig.
    Option 4: Vig chose not to shoot.
    Option 5: Vig tried to shoot someone else who was baned.

    I'm going to say that Option 4 is unlikely, since in a cult game it's essential that vig kill off people who are even remotely suspicious. And since no baners or voiders have spoken up, we can't know if options 2,3, or 5 happened. I'm going to then operate under the assumption that Option 1 is correct, and we don't have a vig.

    So what does that mean? Well, if it's just cultists and seers and vanillagers, there's no way for the Town to win, since we can't kill faster than the cultists can convert. I'm going to make the assumption that AV isn't going to set up an unwinnable game- not because I don't think they would, but because there's no point in analyzing if the game's unwinnable. So, assuming it isn't an unwinnable game, my guess is that one of the wolves is a Cult Leader, and that our immediate goal should be to isolate and lynch said leader so that they can't make more cultists.

    Tl;dr There's either a cult leader or missing information.

    Please speak up and prove me wrong. Speaking of speaking up, any info from our seers?
    I doubt there is a cult leader- Xi's role message says that all the cultists discuss vote together.

    But thinking about it, it IS true thay we can't possibly lynch faster then they can convert- so there must be at least a baner, voider or vigilante.

    And yeah, knowing the results of the new scries would be a good starting point. Otherwise I think that Elenna is still a good choice.

    Although with the knowledge we now have Caerulea voting the Seer while Xihirli is getting rightfully lynched is pretty suspicious too.
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  23. - Top - End - #113
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post

    You're looking to form a fleet of pirate lords strong enough to push back against the royal navy, and to do that you're going to need gold coins and silver tongues. Each night, all cultists will discuss/vote on who to convert. If successful, the conversion will join the cult chat.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    So what does that mean? Well, if it's just cultists and seers and vanillagers, there's no way for the Town to win, since we can't kill faster than the cultists can convert. I'm going to make the assumption that AV isn't going to set up an unwinnable game- not because I don't think they would, but because there's no point in analyzing if the game's unwinnable. So, assuming it isn't an unwinnable game, my guess is that one of the wolves is a Cult Leader, and that our immediate goal should be to isolate and lynch said leader so that they can't make more cultists.

    Tl;dr There's either a cult leader or missing information.
    My instinct is that the Cult doesn't have a single leader who does the conversion - the role description makes it sound like a faction ability. It would be very convenient if it was, since we could start eliminating suspects based on what Jeen said.

    I really don't know if I want to open this can of worms, but is it possible that AV is the cult leader and needs to be lynched for the game to end? At this point I feel it is a waste of a lynch but there's always the option of this game being really funky.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I'm going to then operate under the assumption that Option 1 is correct, and we don't have a vig.
    I'll agree that we probably don't have a vig, or we would have seen something by now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Although with the knowledge we now have Caerulea voting the Seer while Xihirli is getting rightfully lynched is pretty suspicious too.
    I feel like it's just the opposite though? If it's a Cult that can keep recruiting, losing one member isn't the end of the world. The last cult game was won by just keeping the cult alive with one member and distancing so the cult can live on, so why get upset over losing one person?






    My biggest question is can the seer(s) be converted? If so, Jeen would have been an amazing target for the Cult last night.

    Along with the discussion of other helpful roles, I have to assume that there is something that would help us or the game would really be unwinnable. Whether that is the seer/masons being immune or a role that protects against conversion (who hopefully targeted Jeen), I'm really hoping we don't have to worry about Jeen being converted.

  24. - Top - End - #114
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    I feel like it's just the opposite though? If it's a Cult that can keep recruiting, losing one member isn't the end of the world. The last cult game was won by just keeping the cult alive with one member and distancing so the cult can live on, so why get upset over losing one person?
    Wasn't the last cult game rogue alchemist's one? We won that with four cultists (tecnically we won that with three, but it's because the fourth would have pretty much made us win). And I got my skin saved by the others at the end.

    In general while a single cultist isn't the end of the world every lost cultist is more chances to lose while more cultists is a faster win. Not losing cultists seems pretty important (and growing in numbers too).
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Wasn't the last cult game rogue alchemist's one? We won that with four cultists (tecnically we won that with three, but it's because the fourth would have pretty much made us win). And I got my skin saved by the others at the end.

    In general while a single cultist isn't the end of the world every lost cultist is more chances to lose while more cultists is a faster win. Not losing cultists seems pretty important (and growing in numbers too).
    Yeah. I started out as cult, one of us got found and the next day I was immediately linked to the first member. The only reason the cult kept going was because my new partner distanced so well from me and didn't brink up any suspicion.

    Having a lot of members is important, but if someone is going to be lynched in a landslide vote it seems like a weird time to make waves.

  26. - Top - End - #116
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    So what does that mean? Well, if it's just cultists and seers and vanillagers, there's no way for the Town to win, since we can't kill faster than the cultists can convert. I'm going to make the assumption that AV isn't going to set up an unwinnable game- not because I don't think they would, but because there's no point in analyzing if the game's unwinnable. So, assuming it isn't an unwinnable game, my guess is that one of the wolves is a Cult Leader, and that our immediate goal should be to isolate and lynch said leader so that they can't make more cultists.
    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    But thinking about it, it IS true thay we can't possibly lynch faster then they can convert- so there must be at least a baner, voider or vigilante.
    I talked about this during the night - my personal suspicion is that there's a lot of townies whose roles make them unconvertible (although they probably wouldn't know that they're unconvertible, since the presence of a cult in this game was secret).
    I also suggested during the night that there might be an unconvertible wolf faction as well as cult, but I think that's unlikely at this point since we haven't had kills either night.

    Note that Xi's role description includes "if [your conversion is] successful". implying it might not be successful.

    I hadn't considered the possibility of a cult leader, but as Valmark says, it seems unlikely to be the case because of Xi's role description.

    There could be a baner/voider/vig, I guess. If that's the only protection against cult being guaranteed to win, then I imagine that at least two, most likely three of them are in the game, because it would be silly if the voider, for example, got lynched D1 and then town insta-lost.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also I agree that Caerulea speaking up like that doesn't particularly seem like a cult move. I can't imagine that they thought they would actually prevent Xihirli's lynch (they even said it's a protest vote) so a cultist would have no reason to bother sticking their neck out like that.

    Of course, there's always WIFOM, they could have been counting on exactly this line of reasoning. But it seems unlikely.
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  27. - Top - End - #117
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I havent' read the posts since seeing nobody died (hope no hard feelings, Outsider). Also hope that the possibility of death might've scared them off converting you, since by analysis alone you look Town.

    My buddy's read: Caerulea is villager alignment.
    My read: Elenna is villager alignment.
    NOTE: AV refused to clarify whether or not someone converted during the Night would read as scum. But I think we can have a strong Town feel towards Caerulea, Elenna, and I hope The Outsider. (Unless The Outsider is the original cultist, I kinda reckon he wasn't converted.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Read up. Not a lot to say at the moment, except I'm willing to go with the guess that AvatarVecna is the cult leader in some way, or lynching her helps.
    At the least, having one vote on her by Day's end might yield some info, as to if it's a relevant vote or not. Maybe someone else vote something absurd, like Davy Jones.

    ---

    But putting aside the idea of probably wasting votes...

    I think it's likely some Town can't be converted. Maybe Town with powers. That's my guess, if there're to have a chance at winning. Also might explain why I wasn't converted, though I reckon we have a baner and the cult might've been worried I was baned.
    The Outsider, anything to share to help us discern things? I reckon you have a power based on your statements thus far.

    I also think it's likely we have neither a vigilante nor a mafia. Either that, or luck has been strange. But let's assume the worst, which is nobody to help us kill cultists.

    Honestly, I'm more and more thinking the ideal lead cultist would be my buddy, but knows I can't be converted. (Knows who the seer is, has a mason to help prevent death D1.) The only winkle is they knew I was targeting Xi, so if they are the original cultist it would be odd they converted Xi N1. Unless a bold WIFOM. But there's enough time to see how things go, that I don't want to out them yet.

    Assuming Elenna and Caerulea are Town after Night ended -- and if I were in AV's shoes, I'd give the seer a cult read on folk who were being converted -- we can confirm them as Town. If you trust me, that's 3 of us Town. If you trust The Outsider, that's 4. (Although, if my buddy was the cultist, they would have known The Outsider was safe besides the possibility of a vigilante.)
    The other folk most active and towny are Captain Cap and Valmark. Either would make good cultists. Cao is also pretty active.
    But they might have gone for someone quieter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I know I'm being rather quiet but I don't really know what to say currently. I might post something on D3.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I'm going to step in here and say vig, you really shouldn't do that for a multitude of reasons.
    This makes me think that Book Wombat and The Outsider also have powers.
    Last edited by JeenLeen; 2021-01-18 at 10:58 PM.

  28. - Top - End - #118
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    Flumph

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    No hard feelings, JeenLeen. Nah, kidding. In response to your questions/assertions, all I can say is that I don't have anything helpful to share at the moment. I'm leaning towards BookWombat or Libro for wolfishness, but I'm willing to go along with voting AvatarVecna for the moment. I do hope to see that D3 post from Wombat though.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also: if it were me, I would give conversion the lowest possible priority during the night, meaning everything else would happen first, meaning selected targets would get read as Town. But that's just me.
    Last edited by The Outsider; 2021-01-19 at 01:28 PM.
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  29. - Top - End - #119
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    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Thinking on votes, perhaps we should vote legitimately to start, so our votes put pressure on possible cultist, BUT near the end of the Day two people whose vote will be worthless* change their votes: one to AV, one to Davy Jones or some other pirate joke.
    If neither show up, we learn AV is not a valid lynch candidate.
    If AV shows up as having a vote, but Davy Jones doesn't, we know AV is a valid lynch candidate.
    If both show up, we learn nothing, and would actually have to lynch AV (possibly giving the cult a free Night) to learn anything.

    *worthless in the sense of not impacting the final decision. So likely either people on the main wagon, if it has a preponderance of votes (like Xihirli's did D1) and moving off it doesn't risk a shift. Or someone voting for a lone person who has almost no chance of shifting to be the main lynch candidate.
    This idea assumes we don't have near-ties.
    Folk can volunteer to take on one of these vote targets (AV or joke-target) closer to Day's end.

    So, I really feel like I should either vote for someone my possible-fool buddy got a Town read on, or I should vote for my buddy as a liar.
    I'll lean towards the former for now, as I did last night. Still no hard feelings, The Outsider?

    - - - Updated - - -

    EDIT: I know I said I think The Outsider might be powered, based on their night post. But that's Town!TheOutsider. If he's actually cult, then posting something like to shoo away a possible vigilante makes sense. Without a claim and/or evidence to back it up, I'm wary of trusting him.
    Last edited by JeenLeen; 2021-01-19 at 09:30 AM.

  30. - Top - End - #120
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Why isn't Town!TheOutsider likely to want to shoo the vig away? If I had a power in a game that seems to have a low number of them I would be extremely interested in not dying regardless of the faction.
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