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  1. - Top - End - #241
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Valmark/The Outsider: I didn't read who you all baned each night. (If you posted it, I was skimming to catch up.)
    If being baned stops scrys:
    But is it possible for Cao to have gotten anything beyond No Info on The Outsider N1 and N3?
    Is it possible for me to have gotten anything beyond No Info on Valmark N3?

    If our reads should be impossible, maybe AV is lying about the extent of your powers (akin to Captain Cap's Role) and you are baners, but the bane only protects from conversion, not all powers (such as scrys).

  2. - Top - End - #242
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    Valmark's Avatar

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Valmark/The Outsider: I didn't read who you all baned each night. (If you posted it, I was skimming to catch up.)
    If being baned stops scrys:
    But is it possible for Cao to have gotten anything beyond No Info on The Outsider N1 and N3?
    Is it possible for me to have gotten anything beyond No Info on Valmark N3?

    If our reads should be impossible, maybe AV is lying about the extent of your powers (akin to Captain Cap's Role) and you are baners, but the bane only protects from conversion, not all powers (such as scrys).
    Yeah, we already said it and sorry, no chance for No Info- I had already checked. The Outsider wasn't baned those two nights and I wasn't baned that night either.
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  3. - Top - End - #243
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    Flumph

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    It's possible. I was only Daybaned N1, not regular baned. And Valmark didn't end up baning me N3.

    EDIT: Dang it, now I'm getting ninja'd too.
    Last edited by The Outsider; 2021-01-22 at 05:07 PM.
    I can see it from the outside.
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  4. - Top - End - #244
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    Valmark's Avatar

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Well, alright, if The Outsider hasn't lied to me at least.

    AV said that declaring your night action in the private QT takes precedence on the night action written in the mason chat.

    And we get no feedback on our protection power.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    It's possible. I was only Daybaned N1, not regular baned. And Valmark didn't end up baning me N3.

    EDIT: Dang it, now I'm getting ninja'd too.
    Nin nin nin!

    ...nobody will get the quote, will they?
    I won an argument with my GM -15/08/2017- (20:32 GMT +1)

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  5. - Top - End - #245
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I forgot that the masons cannot have been Cultists right off the bat!
    I'm not commenting on whether or not such a thing has occurred here, but I will say that in my spongebob game, the only masons included one person who started in wolf chat, on wolf team, and was essentially infiltrating the mason pair.

    @AvatarVecna: Can you say wether a powered role loses their power when they become a cultist?
    No comment either way.


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  6. - Top - End - #246
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'm not commenting on whether or not such a thing has occurred here, but I will say that in my spongebob game, the only masons included one person who started in wolf chat, on wolf team, and was essentially infiltrating the mason pair.
    I highly doubt Cao was an original cultist. I told him I was targeting Xi, but I think I seemed open enough to others that it wouldn't have been suspicious for him to recommend someone else. So...
    1) if he and Xi started as cult, I'd think he would have pointed me elsewhere
    2) if he was cult, I don't think he would have converted Xi
    So if Cao was cult by D2, I'm pretty sure he was converted.

    I can't speak for the baners, of course.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    It's possible. I was only Daybaned N1, not regular baned. And Valmark didn't end up baning me N3.

    EDIT: Dang it, now I'm getting ninja'd too.
    Okay, so The Outsider could have been converted N1.
    BUT, with some assumptions*, I doubt he was if Cao flips scum. Though, it's possible The Outsider was converted N1 and Cao later on.

    *scrys detect on the night-of-conversion, Cao not a fool

    In other words, if The Outsider was the N1 convert, then Cao could've gotten a scum read.
    If Cao were the N1 convert, then it wasn't The Outsider, and hopefully The Outsider is safe.

    That said, I was thinking over something while driving earlier tonight, and my conclusion was that it might be wise to lynch The Outsider tomorrow regardless of how Cao flips. But then I thought of a potentially better plan that might have given a 100% Town win, but I think that better plan assumed that The Outsider had been baned every night and thus was trustworthy. If he's not, well, the plan falters as he can't be trusted to play his part.

  7. - Top - End - #247
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    It'd be another explanation for the four baners looking a bit too much. I'm not sure which would be the most suspicious out of them- although I'd obviously like to prove my buddy's innocence first.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I do believe that the 100% Town victory plan is the same as mine, Jeen.

    I was wondering if it was wise to lynch TO ahead of time too (TO or any other dubious baner).

    Main idea being that a cultist baner that can Day-Bane is a real issue.

    - - - Updated - - -

    (I meantioned the plan just as an afterthought, I don't actually have anything to add on that).
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  8. - Top - End - #248
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    Flumph

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I was going to say that you could scry me tonight and check, since Cao is now untrustworthy. But that makes it too easy for the cult to convert me as you're scrying, and we still don't know which takes precedence. Gah.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  9. - Top - End - #249
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I was wondering if it was wise to lynch TO ahead of time too (TO or any other dubious baner).

    Main idea being that a cultist baner that can Day-Bane is a real issue.
    Do you mean lynch The Outsider today, instead of Cao?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    I was going to say that you could scry me tonight and check, since Cao is now untrustworthy. But that makes it too easy for the cult to convert me as you're scrying, and we still don't know which takes precedence. Gah.
    My plan does involve one of the baners being unbaned, so we could go with you. And I admit my plan only works if I notice conversions on the night of.
    I guess I shouldn't say more until Night falls, if then.

    Hopefully Valmark's plan is better than mine. Mine involves openly discussing everything, which has some serious downsides. And also breaks if some assumptions aren't true.

  10. - Top - End - #250
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Alright, so, here are my calculations. To start, we assume no pair of Masons is the original Cultist. Based off of Book Wombat's Post #194 and Outsider's #229 and Valmark's #231. I also note when people are protected.

    Spoiler
    Show

    Original Cult Night 1 Convert Night 2 Convert Night 3 Convert
    Book Wombat Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Caerulea Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Caoimhin Mason Vulnerable Protected Vulnerable
    Captain Cap Wild Card Wild Card Dead Dead
    Elenna Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Protected
    JeenLeen Mason Vulnerable Protected Protected
    Libro Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    PartyOfRogues Villager Dead Dead Dead
    Outsider Mason Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Valmark Mason Protected Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Xihirli Maybe Maybe Dead Cultist Dead Cultist



    Removing CC and PoR, since they are not cult.

    Let's factor in Jeen.

    Elenna was scried Night 2.
    Valmark was scried Night 3.

    Spoiler
    Show

    Original Cult Night 1 Convert Night 2 Convert Night 3 Convert
    Book Wombat Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Caerulea Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Caoimhin Mason Vulnerable Protected Vulnerable
    Elenna Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Protected
    JeenLeen Mason Vulnerable, but lynched Xi Protected Protected
    Libro Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Outsider Mason Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Valmark Mason Protected Jeen Scry Jeen Scry
    Xihirli Maybe Maybe Dead Cultist Dead Cultist



    For the heck of it, let's include my scries.


    Spoiler
    Show

    Original Cult Night 1 Convert Night 2 Convert Night 3 Convert
    Book Wombat Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Caerulea Cao Scry Cao Scry Cao Scry Vulnerable
    Caoimhin Mason Vulnerable Protected Vulnerable
    Elenna Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Protected
    JeenLeen Mason Vulnerable, but lynched Xi Protected Protected
    Libro Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Outsider Mason Cao Scry Cao Scry Cao Scry
    Valmark Mason Protected Jeen Scry Jeen Scry
    Xihirli Maybe Maybe Dead Cultist Dead Cultist


    So yes. By this math and assuming all powers work 100% of the time. I am the only person who could have been converted Night 1. That is, if anyone was converted Night 1.


    Also, this involves the initial setup where we have...

    A Pair of Mason Seers
    Two Pairs of Mason Baners
    A Townie who can't be converted
    Two or Three Vanilla Townies.
    Two or One Vanilla Cultists with no powers.

    Let's say there's 2 Cultists to start. Going into Night 1, you're saying the setup allows for a 3/8 chance of Cult having a successful conversion? Captain Cap safe, plus all Baners assumidly able to protect their partner?

    What I described above is not a balanced setup and I'm convinced that someone along the line doesn't have full powers. If we can't trust everyone's powers to work 100% of the time, then who knows when any of the Baner pairs could have been converted. Seers could have gotten wrong results. Alternately, we also could have Cultists immune to scrying or with abilities to bypass a Bane.

    But please take a look at what that setup looks like and tell me Cult could have a chance with 5 people protected every night. I don't see how that works as a game.




    Vote: Caerulea because honestly I know your idea of me being converted N1 is way off. Caerulea's actions are unaccounted for and honestly she already has a vote.

    Vote Count:

    CaoimhinTheCape (5): Book Wombat, JeenLeen, Valmark, Libro, The Outsider
    Caerulea (2): Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape

    Not Voting (1): Caerulea




    But honestly if all 4 baners work 100% of the time and are all Town, it doesn't matter who we lynch today. The game will essentially be over anyway. I won't give out how the plan should work in case y'all want it secret for some reason, but I wouldn't see any reason to keep it hidden.

    - - - Updated - - -

    We're also assuming that both baner pairs are clean. Based on their claims, Outsider could have been converted Night 1 who then got Valmark the next night. Lirbo/Book Wombat supposedly protected each other Night 1, but if they are both converted already of course they would say that.

    Which, once more, cycles back to the argument about Seers getting 100% accurate results, which doesn't feel right for this setup.

  11. - Top - End - #251
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Wow a lot of stuff happened. I need a summary.

    Things we know:

    JeenLeen and Caoimhin started off as seer (maybe fool?) masons. BookWombat and Libro started out as baner masons, as did Valmark and Outsider.
    It might technically be possible for one pair to both be cultists who are lying about being paired together? Not sure if that's possible or not given the other things we know, but it seems unlikely.
    As AV helpfully pointed out, we don't know for sure that none of these players were starting cultists

    JL was town on D2, due to exposing Xihirli. I'm also assuming that JL is a true seer, because it seems unlikely that fool!JL just *happened* to get us a wolf. IDK

    These are the scries that have been claimed:
    N1: Jeen scried Xi, Caomhin scried Outsider as town
    N2: Jeen scried Elenna as town, Caoimhin scried Caerulea as town
    N3: Jeen scried Valmark as town, Caoimhin scried Outsider as town

    These are the banes that have been claimed:
    N1: BW baned Libro, Libro baned BW, Valmark daybaned Outsider, Outsider baned Valmark
    N2: BW baned JeenLeen, Libro daybaned JL, Valmark baned Caoimhin, Outsider baned JeenLeen
    N3: BW baned Elenna, Libro baned BW, Valmark baned JL, Outsider baned Libro

    Let's see if I can successfully make a table. The following ignores the question of whether anyone is lying:
    Spoiler
    Show

    Night 1 Night 2 Night 3
    Book Wombat Baned by Libro Baned by Libro
    Caerulea Scried town by Caoimhin
    Caoimhin Baned by Valmark
    Elenna Scried town by JL Baned by BW
    JeenLeen Not cult b/c outed Xi Baned by BW and Outsider Baned by Valmark
    Libro Baned by BW Baned by Outsider
    Outsider Scried town by Caoimhin Scried town by Caoimhin
    Valmark Baned by Outsider Scried town by JL


    Hopefully all of that is right. I'm trying to come up with a list of possibilities to check.
    Last edited by Elenna; 2021-01-22 at 11:52 PM.
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  12. - Top - End - #252
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Question to Valmark and Outsider: any particular reason you didn't counterclaim BookWombat when they claimed?
    Asking because there's a possibility we have a Valmark/Xihirli/Outsider/[unknown person] team where Valmark and Outsider decided to lie about being a second baner pair, and Caoimhin is either a cultist or a fool.

    Possible original cultists:
    Spoiler
    Show
    Listed in some vague order of likelihood. Note that if Xi was not the original cultist, she must have been the N1 conversion.
    Xihirli could obviously have been the original cultist
    Caerulea - requires Caoimhin to be fool by D2*
    Book Wombat - requires starting-cult masons
    Caoimhin - requires starting-cult masons
    Libro - requires starting-cult masons
    Valmark - requires starting-cult masons and for JL to have been converted, presumably on N3
    Outsider - requires starting-cult masons and for Caoimhin to have been the fool N1 (since Xi would be the N1 conversion so Caoimhin would have been town D2)
    Elenna - basically impossible, because that requires JL to be cult D3, but JL was definitely town D2 and was baned by two people N2, so that would require BW and Outsider to both have lied about the bane
    JeenLeen - impossible because of outing Xi

    *There's no possibility where Caerulea is starting cultist and Caoimhin is cult D2. This is because Caerulea must have converted Xihirli N1, so if Caoimhin is cult then Caoimhin would have been converted N2. But Valmark claims to have baned Caoimhin N2, and JeenLeen claims to have scried Valmark as town N3. So this would require both Valmark and JeenLeen to be lying, but there aren't enough cultists for that.

    Actually that means Caoimhin can't have been converted N2 unless Valmark was already a cultist. Nothing preventing him from being converted N1 by Xihirli, or from being converted last night, though.


    So it seems that the most likely possibility is that Xihirli was the starting cultist.

    Possible N1 converts, if Xihirli is the starting cultist
    Spoiler
    Show
    All the baners are very unlikely to have been the N1 conversion. It's possible that both baners in a pair are now cultists, and are lying about having baned each other N1, I suppose... but why wouldn't they bane each other N1? It was pretty clearly an optimal strategy especially given how little information we got from D1.
    Actually, @baners, did you start off knowing the other one was a baner? If not, any particular reason you shared that info with each other?

    Also, someone must have been converted this night (unless we started out with two cultists, I guess?) otherwise we would have won when Xihirli died.

    Anyways, possible N1 converts:
    Caoimhin
    Caerulea - requires Caoimhin to be fool by N2 since he was baned N2
    Book Wombat - extremely unlikely because baner
    Libro - extremely unlikely because baner
    Outsider - extremely unlikely because baner
    Valmark - extremely unlikely because baner
    Elenna - basically impossible because of JeenLeen's scry
    JeenLeen - impossible because outed Xi

    So basically just Caoimhin and Caerulea.

    If Xi converted Caoimhin, everyone except JL and I could have been the N2 convert, and anyone could have been the N3 convert.
    If Xi converted Caerulea, any of the baners could have been converted N2, and anyone except Valmark could have been the N3 convert (since if Valmark was the N3 convert, then JL would be town currently and their scry would be trustworthy. This doesn't apply to Outsider because this possibility already requires Caoimhin to be a fool.)


    I started trying to map out possible cult teams for other original cultists, but it wasn't very helpful, didn't give much more information than my list of original cultists above.
    Long story short, Xi must have been the N1 convert if she wasn't the original, and in most cases any of the four baners (and Caerulea if Caomhin is a fool) could have been the N2 convert, although if Valmark was converted N2 then JL must have been converted N3. Basically anyone but Valmark could have been converted last night.

    So Xihirli/Caoimhin seems like a likely combination of the first two cultists.

    OTOH if Xihirli/Caerulea were the first two cultists (in whichever order), IDK if they would have converted Caoimhin last night, knowing he was the fool. Seems better to try to convert someone else.
    Same if Outsider/Xihirli were the first two.

    If Valmark/Xihirli were the first two cultists, Caoimhin is likely to be the N2 convert, because Valmark correctly guessed N2 that Caoimhin was the other seer and would be unprotected, so why wouldn't Valmark convert Caomihin?

    There's a few more possibilities but it's getting pretty late here, and I'm pretty sure at this point that CaoimhinTheCape is a good target for today. If they don't flip cult, I'll look at Caerulea next.

    Note: This analysis is basically ignoring a) the possibility of two original cultists, b) most possibilities where the cult missed a conversion, and c) possibilities where the baners are wrong about how their role works, because that seems more complicated.
    I do kinda think a game with this many baners/seers seems kinda unbalanced, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of shenanigans going on with the seer/baner roles not being exactly what they were told? But there's too many possibilities there to really analyze tbh.
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  13. - Top - End - #253
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    Valmark's Avatar

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    We didn't counterclaim because the corrct power role message was showed. We did assume BW left out the 'can't target the same person twice in a row' that we had and sure enough BW shared it the next Day.
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  14. - Top - End - #254
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Also, if someone Day-Baned gets lynched, is the lynch wasted or does it fall on the second in line?
    Not sure if you got an answer as a switch-baner but according to AvatarVecna it gets wasted.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Is there a quote that proves that? Or can BW/Libro confirm? I read their actions as:

    Night 1: Night Bane Book Wombat and Libro. They cannot be converted Night 1.
    Night 2: Day Bane Elenna and Jeen. They cannot be lynched Day 3. (I messed up a bit by writing day/baned, I meant that they were daybaned/nightbaned, so both.)
    Night 3: Night Bane Elenna and Book Wombat. They cannot be converted Night 3.



    Can the baners clarify?
    Book Wombat's and Libro's banes if both stayed Town till now:
    Night 1: Night Bane Book Wombat and Libro. They cannot be converted Night 1.
    Night 2: Night AND Day Bane JeenLeen. They cannot be converted Night 2 and lynched Day 3.
    Night 3: Night Bane Elenna and Book Wombat. They cannot be converted Night 3.

    Probably has been said already but I just wanted to clarify.

    I lied about my role as I said before to try to disguise the fact that I was a mason with Libro.

    Voting CaoimhinTheCape as they really seem to be desperately pulling at straws now.

    This is a funny game I must say.
    Might add some stuff later, want to read through the thread again properly.


    EDIT: Below is the role description I posted first with the removed bits in square brackets. Ignore the square brackets for my given role text.

    "You are a townie, the [switch] baner. Every night, select one player: that player is [either] baned that night (immune to all other powers)[, or is daybaned the next day (and is immune to the lynch). You cannot target the same person two days in a row]."
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-01-23 at 07:11 AM.
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  15. - Top - End - #255
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Sorry about being inactive. I've gotten behind on this thread, and on life stuff, and tbh the 48/24 system meant that I never knew when the day was ending.
    Voting CaoimhinTheCape here, but when I'm done reading the thread I'll post all my thoughts.
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  16. - Top - End - #256
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    As usual, I'm online less during the weekend, but I still feel comfortable with the Cao vote.

    I agree that there are alternatives, and they are scary. And I guess there could be two starting cult.
    I know AV commented (at the end of some game, or in the main werewolf thread) about how hard balancing cult games are. If you start with 2 cult, it's really hard not to overwhelm the town. Maybe this game is an experiment with 2 starting cult and a strong powered town. Anyway, for that reason, I could see 2 starting cult, but I reckon it was unpowered.

    I could also see a really bastard move if this is NOT a cult game, we've been lied to about Xi's reveal, and Xi and some others were actually wolves. But that strains believablility to any limits to plan, so I'll ignore that thought.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    So Xihirli/Caoimhin seems like a likely combination of the first two cultists.

    OTOH if Xihirli/Caerulea were the first two cultists (in whichever order), IDK if they would have converted Caoimhin last night, knowing he was the fool. Seems better to try to convert someone else.
    Same if Outsider/Xihirli were the first two.

    If Valmark/Xihirli were the first two cultists, Caoimhin is likely to be the N2 convert, because Valmark correctly guessed N2 that Caoimhin was the other seer and would be unprotected, so why wouldn't Valmark convert Caomihin?

    There's a few more possibilities but it's getting pretty late here, and I'm pretty sure at this point that CaoimhinTheCape is a good target for today. If they don't flip cult, I'll look at Caerulea next.

    Note: This analysis is basically ignoring a) the possibility of two original cultists, b) most possibilities where the cult missed a conversion, and c) possibilities where the baners are wrong about how their role works, because that seems more complicated.
    I do kinda think a game with this many baners/seers seems kinda unbalanced, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sort of shenanigans going on with the seer/baner roles not being exactly what they were told? But there's too many possibilities there to really analyze tbh.
    If Cao dies, I think we'll learn some useful stuff. If he flips as a true fool (e.g., no randomness), we know some stuff if we can discern what night he was converted. Unfortunately, if that was Night 1, we learn almost nothing. He might also reveal some limitation beyond fool on his powers, which might give insight to my powers.

    Also, if he's not cult, I think most scenarios then I think the cult probably missed a conversion attempt. That is, if he's not cult, we're probably not at game over. Not certain of it, but I'd want to rework a lot of things and re-read his posts if he flips Town and I know they're legit. Also, if he's a true fool and town, we know to lynch The Outsider and Caerulea.
    I reckon the cult assumed I was baned N2 and didn't try for me, but they might have tried N3 when the baner would be on cooldown. (Although I don't think cooldown was revealed by Book Wombat at that time.)

    Though I wouldn't be surprised if any limitations on Cao's power are not revealed while I'm alive. Since fools usually don't get revealed until the true seer is also dead.

    @AV Rules Question: if two baners target a person, one to bane them from all Night abilities and the other to daybane them the next Day... what happens? Would the "bane for that night" stop the effect of the daybane, since it precludes powers that target that night?
    I'm guessing "no" or "no comment"... but this is potentially useful info if we decide we need to lynch The Outsider.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    But please take a look at what that setup looks like and tell me Cult could have a chance with 5 people protected every night. I don't see how that works as a game.
    I admit this is a legitimate point.

  17. - Top - End - #257
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Spoiler: Votes
    Show
    Libro: Elenna
    CaoimhinTheCape: JeenLeen, Valmark, Libro, The Outsider, Book Wombat, Caerulea
    Caerulea: CaoimhinTheCape


    End Of Day Four


    "Alright mister pirate inquisition, what say ye for who should swing today?"

    "Well, this guy has been with me through thick and thin for years..."

    "Okay, so we shouldn't--"

    "And based on everything I know he's an untrustworthy sonuvagun who'd stab you in the back for the right price."

    "...ah, okay. So, he swings then?"

    "Aye."

    "Aye!"


    CaoimhinTheCape was lynched. They were the Seer Cultist Seer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Seer Role
    You are a townie, the seer. Every night, select one player; you learn that player's alignment, but not their role name or power(s).
    Quote Originally Posted by Cultist Role
    You're looking to form a fleet of pirate lords strong enough to push back against the royal navy, and to do that you're going to need gold coins and silver tongues. Each night, all cultists will discuss/vote on who to convert. If successful, the conversion will join the cult chat.
    Night Four Ends In 24 Hours


    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    @AV Rules Question: if two baners target a person, one to bane them from all Night abilities and the other to daybane them the next Day... what happens? Would the "bane for that night" stop the effect of the daybane, since it precludes powers that target that night?
    I'm guessing "no" or "no comment"... but this is potentially useful info if we decide we need to lynch The Outsider.
    No comment on baner interactions, no.


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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Aw frick I forgot to cross out my vote.
    Should at least be obvious it wasn't on purpose, no point to doing something like that with the huge vote on Caoimhin.
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Aw frick I forgot to cross out my vote.
    Should at least be obvious it wasn't on purpose, no point to doing something like that with the huge vote on Caoimhin.
    Mmm... joking. A bit.

    @AvatarVecna that means Caoimhin still had his seer power in addition to being a cultist?

    Uh. Not great.

    - - - Updated - - -

    What do you think about Jeen and Outsider targeting the same person?

    I know, this is bad in the scope of not being able to scry and telling the cultists who's one of the baned- but this would also ensure that a cultist Outsider isn't Day-baning any cultists. Thoughts?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Or rather we'd know if he does (which presumably means Outsider won't do).
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    @AvatarVecna that means Caoimhin still had his seer power in addition to being a cultist?

    Uh. Not great.
    I don't think that's a problem? A cultist seer would presumably know who the cultists were, and the seers only get alignment, not role, so it's no different from a regular cultist, unless I'm missing something. (I don't think there are neutrals in this game, probably?)

    A cultist baner would definitely be a problem, yeah.
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I don't think that's a problem? A cultist seer would presumably know who the cultists were, and the seers only get alignment, not role, so it's no different from a regular cultist, unless I'm missing something. (I don't think there are neutrals in this game, probably?)

    A cultist baner would definitely be a problem, yeah.
    Yeah, my comment meant more "crap people retain their powers" instead of "crap cultists had a seer", because that would mean baner time.
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    Yeah, my comment meant more "crap people retain their powers" instead of "crap cultists had a seer", because that would mean baner time.
    Oh I've just kinda been assuming that lol.
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I put in a placeholder power use, so that I don't forget to put in one before the Night ends.

    I'm really debating between some angles in power usage tonight. I don't see any harm in saying what they are, as long as the baners don't say what they plan to do.
    1) I haven't re-read the posts yet, but it sounds likely at least 2 baners were vulnerable at some point. I was mostly worried about Book Wombat getting converted N2, but I'm also concerned about The Outsider now. (Libro seems safe due to how quiet he was, and we can be pretty sure at least one Night's conversion was spent on Cao.)
    2) If we could trust the baners: I'd be strongly debating between the baners all bane each other, and 3 baners be baned and one of them banes me. I scry the non-baned baner. The downside to this is we'd probably need to discuss it publicly. The plus side is it forces the cult into either 1) converting someone they know if safe to convert (Elenna, Caerulea) OR 2) converting a powered, but knowing we're learn they're powered and they'd get lynched. I'm not sure which is better or worse, and we shouldn't discuss which is worse lest we help the cult with that decision.

    On the other side, I'm willing to bet there's just 1 cultist left. As Cao (perhaps in frustration) noted, it does feel a bit unfair to the cult if there's 4 baners and Captain Cap in play. The cult definitely could have gotten lucky and gotten someone every night, but I kinda doubt it.

    ...in a mix of thoughts... debating what to say publicly or not...

    I'm fine scrying The Outsider. There was a small window for Book Wombat to get converted, so hopefully he's Town. There was a bigger window for Libro, I feel, but his being so quiet likely made him an unappealing convert. The Outsider had vulnerabilities, but also had reason to be considered a good convert.

    I'll leave it to Valmark and The Outsider if they think The Outsider should bane me or one of their duo. E.g., let's keep some stuff private so that the cult at least only has a 50% chance of taking one of us powered.

    Thoughts on stufff with Cao

    He seemed pretty open to me scrying most anybody, including me potentially scrying Book Wombat or The Outsider N3. But I had already told him I was leaning strong on Valmark, and he was supporting that. He was also kinda for me scrying Book Wombat N3, so maybe that means Book Wombat is clean (or Cao knew a cult!BW could bane himself or get baned by a buddy.)

    He did push some for us to scry Captain Cap the night before CC got lynched. Maybe that's because the cult knew they couldn't convert him, so he didn't mind using his scry on him to avoid potentially hitting a fellow cultist and getting caught in a lie. E.g., there's some reason to think the cult might've lost a conversion. He was also pushing Libro as possible cult even before today, so -- while that could be distancing -- makes me think Libro is probably clean.

    The Outsider could definitely be Town, but Cao seems to lean towards me scrying Libro or Valmark N3 and him scrying The Outsider (on at least the pretext that it might help discern if Cao's a fool). The only scry target he leaned against me doing was scrying Cao.

    I was a bit 'stream of consciousness' and rambling in the above, as I was flipping between the mason chat and this post, but summary: I see reason to think Libro and Book Wombat are Town, based on Cao being okay with me scrying them or us assuming they were cult if we had no scum reads. Maybe The Outsider, but less so. In terms of "towncred" (based on Cao's posts) I think Libro is definitely Town, Book Wombat probably Town, and The Outsider maybe Town.
    At least, unless really good distancing was being done.

    I think we also know Elenna is Town, at least if Book Wombat/Libro are Town. So that's good to know.




    Some concluding thoughts as I read through things:
    We know these are Town: JeenLeen, Elenna*, Valmark
    *if BW/Libro honest about banes N3

    I lean that Cao is the N1 convert, which (if true) means... actually very little. There's nobody who was vulnerable that night that was baned other nights. But I'm pretty sure he was hte N1 since he did push to wait to lynch Xi, which would have postponed us finding out it's a cult game.
    I could see the cult converting the person Cao knew was not being scryed. Which, if true, means 2 cultists left and they are Caerulea and The Outsider. Which would be awesome since it means no baners are cultist.

    So, in final conclusion: I think I should scry The Outsider, and he should bane me. Valmark should bane himself. Book Wombat and Libro should make sure they are safe.
    On the other hand, I'm fine if one of the baners decides to keep Elenna safe. We gotta throw some confusion to the cult as to who is safe to convert. :P

    I realize the danger in saying this aloud, but you baners keep your cards to your chest about if you agree to this plan or not. Also, if I'm lying, there's a good reason for it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    All that said, if The Outsider and his buddy both post that I should NOT scry The Outsider, I'll scry someone else and trust their intentions. Assuming I get back online before the Night ends (no promises).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh, I forgot.
    Since Cao and I were pushing for Libro to die at first, we can be pretty sure Libro is Town even though was vulnerable at times.
    So that bumps the completely trustworthy baners up to Libro and Valmark. I forgot that it wouldn't make sense for Cao to bus Libro, when there's townies he could presumably have argued I vote for.

    ---

    Also, I like how nightchat sometimes makes sense in a cult game, especially for those confirmed town.
    Now to do chores and go to bed.

  24. - Top - End - #264
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    1) I haven't re-read the posts yet, but it sounds likely at least 2 baners were vulnerable at some point. I was mostly worried about Book Wombat getting converted N2, but I'm also concerned about The Outsider now. (Libro seems safe due to how quiet he was, and we can be pretty sure at least one Night's conversion was spent on Cao.
    Worth noting that literally all the baners were vulnerable N2, unless I'm missing something.

    EDIT: Oh, right, you scried Valmark as town. Still technically possible Valmark was the N2 convert and you were the N3 convert, though - we only have Valmark's word that he baned you.
    Last edited by Elenna; 2021-01-24 at 12:19 AM.
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Testing something.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay; no result. Will probably be back online late tonight. (Was hoping maybe the update got made for Night's end, but I was missing it due to my page not reloading.)

  26. - Top - End - #266
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Sorry was a bit delayed today.

    End Of Night Four


    The winds were shifting, ever so subtly, and yet more royal swag was showing up in port. This wasn't done yet...

    Day Five Ends In 48 Hours


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  27. - Top - End - #267
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    "The Outsider is scum alignment."

    Will post more in the morning, but wanted to get that out there.

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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Oh great, we're about to lose a baner. So long, The Outsider.

    There's not much I can say, except for the fact that that scry is incorrect and I baned JeenLeen last night. The possibilities are:

    1. JeenLeen is a Fool with random probability (as opposed to always scrying someone as the opposite alignment).
    2. The cultists have a Framer-style role.
    3. JeenLeen's been converted.

    Three is nearly impossible. Unless I'm mistaken, Jeen has been baned every night except N1. So for them to be a cultist, they'd have to have been one originally or been the N1 convert. And I don't think either possibility is likely, though the former is marginally more likely. And since there's no way to know if option 2 is correct, the dafest bet is option 1: Jeen's a Fool.

    Admittedly, option 4 is that I'm lying and I'm a cultist. But when I flip Town... well, you know.
    I can see it from the outside.
    And I know you're on the inside... lookin' out.


  29. - Top - End - #269
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    Trying to figure out who the rest of the cult is

    I think it's reasonable to assume that none of the masons were originally cult.

    So, I'm pretty sure that Xi was the original cultist and Cao the N1 convert. During N1, Cao was fine with me scrying Xi. During D2, he wanted to wait to share the info that Xi was scum. The below assumes Xi is original cultist and Cao the N1 convert.

    N2 convert possibilites include: Book Wombat, Cerulea, Libro, The Outsider
    I'll assume Libro was not converted based on Cao going after him later in the game and him being so quiet as to be an undesirable convert.
    I can see converting Caerulea since her defense of Xi looked so absurd for a fellow-cultist to make. I also see converting The Outsider or Book Wombat as they hinted at having powers. In fact, it's probable one of those two got converted N2; I know I discussed with Cao that it seemed like they were claiming to have powers.

    N3 convert possibilites include: Cearulea, The Outsider.

    I don't know the N4 possibilites yet, as haven't heard from the baners.

    The above assumes Elenna and Valmark stayed Town, based on my scrys and Elenna being baned N3. The latter point, of course, assumes Book Wombat is Town.

    But if we're really lucky, the N2 convert was The Outsider. Meaning the N3 convert was nobody or Caerulea, OR whoever The Outsider was supposed to be baning that night.
    Valmark, who was he supposed to protect? (I'm sure it was stated already, but it's late and I don't want to risk misreading while I reread several posts.

    This, of course, is assuming that the cult didn't hit someone baned or Captain Cap on any of the Nights, but I feel it's best for us to assume worst-case for planning purposes. At least unless worst case makes it impossible to really plan, in which case we can make some reasonable guesses (like my guess that the N2 convert was The Outsider.)

    Also, if we started with 2 cult, I assume it was two unpowered. Makes sense for what I envision this game to be: an experiment on balancing cult games. Since Elenna was scryed Town, that means (if there were 2 original cult) they were Xi and Caerulea.

    So, in conclusion, the Cult likely is only The Outsider and Caerulea, if that. Plus whoever got converted last night.


    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Oh great, we're about to lose a baner. So long, The Outsider.

    There's not much I can say, except for the fact that that scry is incorrect and I baned JeenLeen last night. The possibilities are:

    1. JeenLeen is a Fool with random probability (as opposed to always scrying someone as the opposite alignment).
    2. The cultists have a Framer-style role.
    3. JeenLeen's been converted.

    Three is nearly impossible. Unless I'm mistaken, Jeen has been baned every night except N1. So for them to be a cultist, they'd have to have been one originally or been the N1 convert. And I don't think either possibility is likely, though the former is marginally more likely. And since there's no way to know if option 2 is correct, the dafest bet is option 1: Jeen's a Fool.

    Admittedly, option 4 is that I'm lying and I'm a cultist. But when I flip Town... well, you know.
    Self-voting is a nice ploy to gain towncred, but I don't think it'll work.
    Also, if I'm a fool, we're probably screwed in that we've been assuming Valmark is trustworthy. I won't say it's impossible, but I really doubt it. if I am a fool, they'll lynch me tomorrow as a cultist.

    BUT self-voting did make me wary of something. What if The Outsider daybaned himself, and this buys the cult the time it needs to get more converts in?
    On the plus side, since The Outsider was supposed to bane me, that means that Valmark was likely self-baned and thus still trustworthy today.
    As a downside, it's possible The Outsider had been Town until today, and my public post is what got him targeted. If so, sorry. I had kinda hoped the cult would assume I was lying. On the other hand, maybe they did assume I was lying and The Outsider daybaned Caerulea (if she's cult), thinking I was targeting her as the other likely candidate.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Removing CC and PoR, since they are not cult.

    Let's factor in Jeen.

    Elenna was scried Night 2.
    Valmark was scried Night 3.

    Spoiler
    Show

    Original Cult Night 1 Convert Night 2 Convert Night 3 Convert
    Book Wombat Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Caerulea Maybe Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Caoimhin Mason Vulnerable Protected Vulnerable
    Elenna Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Jeen Scry Protected
    JeenLeen Mason Vulnerable, but lynched Xi Protected Protected
    Libro Mason Protected Vulnerable Protected
    Outsider Mason Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable
    Valmark Mason Protected Jeen Scry Jeen Scry
    Xihirli Maybe Maybe Dead Cultist Dead Cultist


    Also, my post assumes Cao's chart was honest and had no typos. I reckon it is legit, or someone would have called him on it, but, well, I admit I used his chart instead of retracing eveything on my own, for the analysis above.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Let's say there's 2 Cultists to start. Going into Night 1, you're saying the setup allows for a 3/8 chance of Cult having a successful conversion? Captain Cap safe, plus all Baners assumidly able to protect their partner?

    What I described above is not a balanced setup and I'm convinced that someone along the line doesn't have full powers. If we can't trust everyone's powers to work 100% of the time, then who knows when any of the Baner pairs could have been converted. Seers could have gotten wrong results. Alternately, we also could have Cultists immune to scrying or with abilities to bypass a Bane.

    But please take a look at what that setup looks like and tell me Cult could have a chance with 5 people protected every night. I don't see how that works as a game.




    Vote: Caerulea because honestly I know your idea of me being converted N1 is way off. Caerulea's actions are unaccounted for and honestly she already has a vote.
    WIFOM is strong here.
    Is Cao making a legitimate statement about unfair the game seems to the cult currently since there was 1 initial cultist, or is he talking about 2 being likely hoping we won't believe him?
    Is he voting Caerulea as a distancing move? Or is he hoping we'll think it's distancing?

    In other words, we might be able to squeeze out some insight about the number of cultists or Caerulea... but I sorta doubt it. But wanted to draw attention in case anyone else can make good sense of it.
    Last edited by JeenLeen; 2021-01-24 at 11:34 PM.

  30. - Top - End - #270
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    Default Re: Smugglers & Scallywags

    I baned myself and Libro baned themselves, hopefully they aren't lying
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-01-25 at 05:04 AM.
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