Next-strip predictions

[Riftwolf]

Wait new prediction:
Orange voice starts talking to Elan telepathically, surprised to find someone on the same wavelength, but also pleased to find someone who can be briefly distracted while it subdues the rest of the Order.

[Precure]

I was right: Elan's character development died.

[Fyraltari]

Wait new prediction:
Orange voice starts talking to Elan telepathically, surprised to find someone on the same wavelength, but also pleased to find someone who can be briefly distracted while it subdues the rest of the Order.

Pretty dang close!

[Dion]

I was right: Elan's character development died.

It’s just strip #152 recycled with new artwork!

[arimareiji]

Wait new prediction:
Orange voice starts talking to Elan telepathically, surprised to find someone on the same wavelength, but also pleased to find someone who can be briefly distracted while it subdues the rest of the Order.

Frighteningly close, especially given past predictions-for-fun. XD

[Riftwolf]

Frighteningly close, especially given past predictions-for-fun. XD

I can't help but feel you're congratulating me for hitting the dartboard rather than the wall XD

[arimareiji]

I can't help but feel you're congratulating me for hitting the dartboard rather than the wall XD

It was absolutely sincere; the "frighteningly close" could have stood alone. Just trying to tip my cap for the fun predictions prior.

[Ionathus]

1237: Despite being the bait, Elan is not Serini's actual first target when she springs the trap. Given that Elan is the one being lured away, I'm gonna guess that Haley is the intended first strike...because when you're an outnumbered rogue, you don't want the other side thinking like a rogue.

[Squire Doodad]

1237: Despite being the bait, Elan is not Serini's actual first target when she springs the trap. Given that Elan is the one being lured away, I'm gonna guess that Haley is the intended first strike...because when you're an outnumbered rogue, you don't want the other side thinking like a rogue.

Haley is most likely to figure out Serini's ploy, but V can do the most and is probably the squishiest, especially since Team Evil has no ranged attackers and Serini is one.
Toss up as to whether Serini would go after H or V.

[Ionathus]

Haley is most likely to figure out Serini's ploy, but V can do the most and is probably the squishiest, especially since Team Evil has no ranged attackers and Serini is one.
Toss up as to whether Serini would go after H or V.

I'm still guessing that Serini will not target V first, specifically because it's the most optimal move...and therefore the most predictable.

[brian 333]

I am still going with the dwarves as the first targets. Get rid of the healers and the fight doesn't last as long. I am about six strips past that prediction, but...

[Metastachydium]

I'm still guessing that Serini will not target V first, specifically because it's the most optimal move...and therefore the most predictable.

Serini has quite the ego, but I'm not sure she would risk shooting herself in the foot so hard just to avoid being predictable.

I am still going with the dwarves as the first targets. Get rid of the healers and the fight doesn't last as long. I am about six strips past that prediction, but...

I don't know. Dwarves are a tough lot, especially if she's going to try poison again.

[Ionathus]

Serini has quite the ego, but I'm not sure she would risk shooting herself in the foot so hard just to avoid being predictable.

I don't think it has to be about ego. Morale is a finite resource, and if your enemies feel outmaneuvered or outsmarted by an unseen adversary, they're more likely to get panicky and make stupid mistakes. Look at how Tarquin-era Linear Guild fell apart at the pyramid ambush, starting with a single clever trick that relied on getting inside Nale's head.

Having a plan and contingencies makes you feel confident. "Take out the spellcaster" is a common tactic, and we've seen The Order recently exploit that in the HPoH fight. If they're expecting their attacker to go for V, then applying all of her pressure elsewhere could be a surprise.

[Metastachydium]

I don't think it has to be about ego. Morale is a finite resource, and if your enemies feel outmaneuvered or outsmarted by an unseen adversary, they're more likely to get panicky and make stupid mistakes.

I'd think that losing the most powerful member of your party in the first round can be demoralizing enough. Haley's good, but she's not quite at the top of the food chain and unlike the casters, she cannot negate invisibility, flight and the other magic tricks that she needs more than the Order needs an archer (who's extra damage dealing trick has a 0 chance of working against an epic level fogue).

Look at how Tarquin-era Linear Guild fell apart at the pyramid ambush, starting with a single clever trick that relied on getting inside Nale's head.

That was in part just luck. There was no guarantee Nale would trigger exactly the right trap to shut Malack out. Also, Tarquin made short work of half the Order immediately thereafter (their only caster that counts included). He probably could have beaten the rest again (he was consistently shown to be a melee combatant easily superior to Roy and Haley); he just had different tactical priorities.

Having a plan and contingencies makes you feel confident. "Take out the spellcaster" is a common tactic, and we've seen The Order recently exploit that in the HPoH fight. If they're expecting their attacker to go for V, then applying all of her pressure elsewhere could be a surprise.

A surpirse, yes, but a costly surprise if the more powerful members of the team, including those that can negate her buffs are left standing at the end.

[Ionathus]

That's assuming Serini would succeed trying to take V down, though. If the Order knows that V is the most likely target, then V is also more likely to have additional buffs and defenses.

Picking an unorthodox target can give you a chance to strike where your opponent doesn't have their guard up as strongly.

[Metastachydium]

That's assuming Serini would succeed trying to take V down, though. If the Order knows that V is the most likely target, then V is also more likely to have additional buffs and defenses.

Picking an unorthodox target can give you a chance to strike where your opponent doesn't have their guard up as strongly.

[Shrugs.] Currently everyone's buffed up for a fight with Xykon, so…
As for unorthodox targets, wasting the element of surprise on an unorthodox target who could do precious little against you is just that: wasting the element of surprise.

[Ionathus]

[Shrugs.] Currently everyone's buffed up for a fight with Xykon, so…
As for unorthodox targets, wasting the element of surprise on an unorthodox target who could do precious little against you is just that: wasting the element of surprise.

People put too much faith in the meta. As OotS has demonstrated numerous times, raw power is not the end-all-be-all, and Haley has shown her value to the team in "thinking like a rogue" more than once. If I was an Epic-level rogue trying to take down a capable party using guerrilla tactics, the last thing I would want is somebody like me, who can easily guess my next move.

Rich has said clearly that he cares more about telling a good story than he does about faithfully recreating actual, optimal 3.5e combat. Even if you think Haley could do "precious little" against Serini, there are valid story and character reasons for her to be a potential target here.

[Metastachydium]

People put too much faith in the meta.

There's no such thing as too much faith in the Meta!

As OotS has demonstrated numerous times, raw power is not the end-all-be-all, and Haley has shown her value to the team in "thinking like a rogue" more than once. If I was an Epic-level rogue trying to take down a capable party using guerrilla tactics, the last thing I would want is somebody like me, who can easily guess my next move.

Ambush tactics and magic are not specific to rogues (the latter is not their specialty, and the former is something the value of which one can easily learn in Fighter College) and the greatest advantages Serini has are 1) home ground, 2) the element of surprise and 3) obscene amounts of magic rather than "thinking like a rogue". Also, the Order doesn't know Serini is alive, let alone that she's attacking them. The Tomb is officially choke full of powerful monsters, and SLAs are a commonplace tool on those (heck, separating the weak from the herd is more of a predatory tactic than a roguish one).

Rich has said clearly that he cares more about telling a good story than he does about faithfully recreating actual, optimal 3.5e combat. Even if you think Haley could do "precious little" against Serini, there are valid story and character reasons for her to be a potential target here.

And to facilitate that, he often ends up taking out V in the worst possible moments lest they solve the encounter on their own. Further, there are valid reasons for taking out pretty much every member of the Order other than Belkar first (elven wizards are squishy but powerful; clerics are the worst (and of crucial importance in a fight where people get hurt); beheading a group by removing their leader and chief tactician is always a wise move if you can pull it through), so I see nothing special about Haley in that regard.

(And a last little parenthetical remark: if one is a rogue and is afraid of getting predictable, one should stop thinking like a rogue.)

[arimareiji]

Ambush tactics and magic are not specific to rogues (the latter is not their specialty, and the former is something the value of which one can easily learn in Fighter College) and the greatest advantages Serini has are 1) home ground, 2) the element of surprise and 3) obscene amounts of magic rather than "thinking like a rogue". Also, the Order doesn't know Serini is alive, let alone that she's attacking them. The Tomb is officially choke full of powerful monsters, and SLAs are a commonplace tool on those (heck, separating the weak from the herd is more of a predatory tactic than a roguish one).

And to facilitate that, he often ends up taking out V in the worst possible moments lest they solve the encounter on their own. Further, there are valid reasons for taking out pretty much every member of the Order other than Belkar first (elven wizards are squishy but powerful; clerics are the worst (and of crucial importance in a fight where people get hurt); beheading a group by removing their leader and chief tactician is always a wise move if you can pull it through), so I see nothing special about Haley in that regard.

(And a last little parenthetical remark: if one is a rogue and is afraid of getting predictable, one should stop thinking like a rogue.)

I practically tripped across this one, despite having thought for a while that Serini needs to take out Haley first: If Serini's been watching, she has less motivation to do so. Her epic "thinking like a rogue" left Haley flat-footed.

Haley erroneously assumes there's no shell game in play back in panels 3/4 of 1198. Which is understandable, since she's only thinking about the rest of the chasm being "the ball". But despite learning about the portals -- and Belkar pointing out they may be in "the real dungeon, then? The one with the Gate thing?" (panel 1) -- she doesn't revisit her assumptions, and she's the first one to say they should use the portals to ambush Xykon (panel 6)... giving away the location of the ball, unless they achieve TPK (on Team Evil, that is).

[KorvinStarmast]

Looks like I did not predict the Sea of Holes redux in 1137.

I predict that, in 1138, Haley gets held/attacked/trapped/zapped by Serini.

[Ionathus]

Haley wait, stop, just because I predicted you'd be top of Serini's hit list doesn't mean you have to willingly deliver yourself to her!

Anyway 1238: Haley (with Elan) gets separated from the group.

[Fyraltari]

1238: Roy, Durkon, V, Belkar and Minrah are attacked.

[Metastachydium]

1239: Elan casts Neutralize Poison (in your face, Serini!).

[KorvinStarmast]

Looks like I did not predict the Sea of Holes redux in 1137.

I predict that, in 1138, Haley gets held/attacked/trapped/zapped by Serini.

Nope, it was Roy. Once again, prediction didn't come true.

Prediction for 1239: Haley shoots toward the voice.

[Precure]

1239: Haley is doomed because of some Elan related reason.

[Schroeswald]

1239 (massive long shot but hey, it’s fun): Serini takes out the rest of the order except for Belkar who escapes and runs out, right into Team Evil or the MiTD.

[Ionathus]

Welp, I should've had the courage of my convictions and stuck with my prediction from awhile back, that Serini would spend her first attack trying to take out Roy. I still think this will be an opportunity to show how much they've grown, that even without their leader the order is still capable of holding together! That'd be a nice payoff given DStP and Roy's "getting drunk and botching the rousing speech" at the end of last book.

1238: The Order fights back, and gives Sunny a black eye (har har). They're having trouble with the antimagic, and Belkar remembers that Bloodfeast hasn't always been a ferocious little lizard...

[Riftwolf]

I'm not sure shutting off magic is in Serini's best interest. Without access to it, she is toast.

Wow this comment dated badly huh

[Metastachydium]

Wow this comment dated badly huh

Now I hate you!

[Riftwolf]

Now I hate you!

Haha OK I'll tone down the insufferability. It's just so rare that I guess something!