A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #751
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    AvatarVecna
    BookWombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Flat-Footed
    Jeenleen
    Libro
    Mornshine
    Murska
    Rogan
    Rogue_Alchemist
    Shal06
    Snowblaze
    Totadileplayz
    Valmark

    Correct me if I'm wrong on that, That's just cursory.

    At Max 2 of these Are Wolves. That means there are 13 ordinary players, with which 7 of which are already town-core, and 2 are known neutrals. For a Total of 6 players left for debate. Then there is the Strong Town-Reads which I just don't know how many there are there, but ultimately it doesn't matter. We have to have had been constantly roleblocking the target, since the doctor wasn't going through so just by that information we do likely know one of the wolves. So Let's Assume the worst case scenario where the 9 major town the neutrals plus town-core, and then everyone else just started getting lynched while the town-core got nk'd after the known wolf was dead. Since, if the wolves never killed we have to assume we already know who they are.

    So
    15 players start.
    9-4-2 start of today.
    9-3-2 we lynched Rogan the right move for today, since it allows jeenleen to win, and this is the worst case scenario we are worrying about.
    8-3-2 end of this night
    8-3-1 end of the next day's lynch.
    7-2-1
    6-1-1
    5-0-1
    4-0

    Yep we really can't lose this in the worst case scenario if we actually respect the Neutrals, and try to help them win. So, yes it is in our interest even in a 2 wolf game. Please tell me if that's incorrect but unless i'm missing something. If Rogan was a town core then it just ends up with a slightly higher town total in the end.


    But Please Tell Me AV how I'm wrong on this, because as Far as I can see it's in our best interests to ensure as many chips are on our side as possible.

    - - - Updated - - -

    While that may appear to be the worst case scenario it is a gross simplification.

    7-4-2-2 Once Again today.
    7-3-2-2 Rogan being lynched
    8-2-2-2 Tonight The Wolves will probably be baned once more and thus unable to do a night kill since we clearly have that on lock down. and I'll try to do the whole wolves being killed last bit to accentuate the whole worst case scenario.
    8-1-2-2 an innocent townie dies, so that the killer wolf will still be around so they can't perform any night kills.
    9-2-2 Now the last townie is confirmed tonight
    9-2-1 the other wolf dies
    9-2-0 The Wolf who's night kill was on lockdown the entire time is now dead.

    Yeah, I can not see Town losing this game in the worst case scenario so long as we keep the neutrals content by you know fulfilling their objectives.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But even that was a simplification as it ignores that Flat_Footed would then gain access to night kills, and thus the town side will have a faster kill progression, irregardless of if we've discovered the wolves or not.

    While that may appear to be the worst case scenario it is a gross simplification.

    7-4-2-2 Once Again today.
    7-3-2-2 Rogan being lynched
    8-1-2-2 scry, wolf lockdown, and undead vig shot
    8-0-2-2 last unconfirmed town dies.
    8-2-1 Scry, Wolf Lockdown, and Undead Vig Shot.
    8-2 Wolves lose their last member.

  2. - Top - End - #752
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    I don't see the roleblock assumption. Usually the faction kill either can't be roleblocked, or the wolves can assign it to any of their number to use and then if that person is roleblocked they lose the kill. Plus AV specifically said that the wolves hit a Bane last night, not a RB.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zelphas View Post
    I'm keeping my vote on Snowblaze for now, but I don't like it.

    Snowblaze's situation is almost identical to BCH's in some ways, in that it's someone who got caught in a really strange lie and claimed a neutral role. If they flip neutral, I won't be surprised, but the situation is weird enough that I could see them flipping wolf.

    The death of AV is still really odd, to me, especially since it was the only death last night and the Zeusling's apparent response was "Oops! My bad! I'm town, though." That's... uncomfortable, but I have no idea who this Zeusling could be, so I literally can't vote them in any way that matters.

    Xihirli seems to be under suspicion due to knowledge of her character (whether said knowledge is true or not, I can't say) and her insistence that AV's death smells fishy. Maybe I'm being duped, but I tend to agree with her that I don't like the explanation we've been given for that death so far, so I'm not comfortable with voting her at the moment.

    I'd be happy to change my vote (Snowblaze feels like a neutral, and we should get rid of some wolves soon before they become a legitimate problem), but I have no one who I want to change it to at the moment.
    While I wait for word from the almighty Network, I will vote Zelphas based on this post.
    Quotes:
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamech View Post
    Trusting Murska worked out great!
    Quote Originally Posted by happyturtle View Post
    A Murska without lies is like a day without sunshine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  3. - Top - End - #753
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    I'm too lazy to start my own wagon, and I can see how the quoted post looks suspicious, so... yeah, let's kill Zelphas.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  4. - Top - End - #754
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    People who voted Xihirli yesterday
    (Ignoring myself)
    Spoiler: People Who Voted Xihirli
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    rogue_alchemist started the wagon and spent a lot of time arguing the case to kill her. Not a wolf.

    Rogan was next on board, but I donít see anything clearing about the vote at that point.

    Totadile jumped between wagons several times, ending up on Xihirli which is... not something I see a wolf doing. Also not a wolf.

    Apogee1 is a dead mason. (RIP. Thanks for believing me.)

    JeenLeen is 99% clear - thereís a world where they feel obliged to bus because of their claimed win-con/not wanting to kill another neutral claimant but I think thatís highly improbable at this point.

    MornShine and Valmarkís late votes were what actually got Xihirli killed. Not wolves.

    flat_footed is also clear for outing Bladescape - I canít see why wolf!flat would claim a guilty on a Bladescape of either alignment.

    Bladescape is an outed wolf. (If he somehow isnít I think Iíll lose whatever shreds of sanity I still have left.)


    That leaves:
    Book Wombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Libro
    Murska
    Rogan
    Shal06
    Zelphas

    ...yeah, Iím good with thinking the remaining wolves are in that list.
    I agree with Snow's list from earlier, at least we should spend the time checking out the list before moving on to anything else. I'm fine voting Zelphas since other people have voted him already. The quote Murska picked feels suspicious to me too so I think it's a good pick.

    That said, it also feels like Zelphas would be a good candidate for last night's scry. If Zelphas is already vetted let us know and we can move on to someone else. Towncore, if you don't want us (the people on the list) taking shots in the dark it would help to narrow down who your suspects are.

    I would have to look at Totadile's math again but it feels like we should be in an OK position - we've had 2 Wolf lynches, 1 Wolf killed at Night, 1 Neutral lynch, 1 Neutral leave, and only 2 Town deaths, one of which got reversed.

  5. - Top - End - #755
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Alright here Is the math if we can't stop the night kills and we also don't know any of the wolves.

    7-4-2-2 Once Again today.
    7-3-2-2 the end of today.
    7-1-2-2 someone Is confirmed another dies due to wolf kill, and last dies to vig shot.
    7-2-2 last town unconfirmed dies
    6-2-1 undead vig shot wolf kill, and scry figures out the last wolf.
    6-2 the end of the day.

    Yep even if we assume the rb isn't what constantly stops the wolf kill we still can't lose. So we should still kill rogan. Because once again we have no idea if there are 4 or 5 wolves and jeenleen should win.

    - - - Updated - - -

    A) Just Realized this path was leading me astray as if what I believe to be true namely a wolf is known to the town-core then logically they could stop the game from winning before Jeenleen's victory. Since no one has ever brought up this case it's rather likely that no one knew. But there was also a hole in the logic namely that Flat_footed would definitely survive two nights which can be easily explained by the fact the doctor is still around somewhere so his lynch is necessary to kill Flat_Footed. Though there is a rational way to explain how someone else can't die due to nk's child Hermes in this case and would have to be voted. While simultaneously the double-voter needs to be verified if town wants to make sure that the wolves can't have an additional card in their wheelhouse.... I feel like I forgot my original point somewhere in the mess. But if my original point that town knows who one of the wolves are Is true it's actually something I'd like at least acknowledged before I feel comfortable stopping the Rogan lynch that ensures Jeenleen's victory.

    However, I'd at least like to know the suspect list since we are not the ones blessed with information so we'd have relative less knowledge to be able to sus out the culprit. And it is bull**** if you want us to do so without it as that's withholding information from the town.

  6. - Top - End - #756
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Dead/Exited Players
    Apogee - N2 vig kill
    Batcathat - D1 lynch
    Bladescape - D3 lynch
    EmmyNecromancer - town-win
    Xihirli - D2 lynch
    Elenna - N3 vig kill

    Living Players
    AvatarVecna - Town confirmed (via dying)
    BookWombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Flat-Footed - Town basically confirmed (revealed bladescape, Hades who can use dead powers)
    Jeenleen - Neutral confirmed (via bladescape's death)
    Libro - uncontested Athena
    Mornshine - Town likely (Xi's death)
    Murska
    Rogan - Town basically confirmed (Zeus vig)
    Rogue_Alchemist - Town likely (redirected N1, against Xi)
    Shal06
    Snowblaze - Neutral claim, apparently confirmed now
    Totadileplayz - Town likely (argued kill Xi)
    Valmark
    Zelphas


    So, as unknowns, that leaves:
    BookWombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Murska
    Shal06
    Valmark
    Zelphas
    And maybe Snowblaze.
    Probably at least one of these is basically also confirmed Town via the late vote swings to lynch Xi, but I don't have time to doublecheck the votes.
    Of these, at least should be towncore as being Apogee's Sibling. Probably at least another was scried. Whoever resurrected AV is also towncore.
    One of these also claimed Neutral to Apogee.

    So, we obviously should vote one of those unknowns Rogan.

    - - - Updated - - -

    edit: meant to put neutral-win under Emmy

    - - - Updated - - -

    also shoulda listed Libro as an unknown, for alignment purposes

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    I don't see the roleblock assumption. Usually the faction kill either can't be roleblocked, or the wolves can assign it to any of their number to use and then if that person is roleblocked they lose the kill. Plus AV specifically said that the wolves hit a Bane last night, not a RB.
    Ah: I misunderstood what "hit a bane" meant, but now I get it.
    So the wolves tried to kill the person our Poseidon-baner baned. Good to know, and confirms that baned person as Town. Though I would reckon they already were confirmed such, since those seem wise targets for the wolves.

    This also means that the voiding likely told us little about who is a wolf.

  7. - Top - End - #757
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    My list of unconfirmed is above, but I'll type it again:

    Book Wombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Libro
    Murska
    Shal06
    Zelphas


    Valmark was also a late vote on Xihirli, plus Xi spent a good amount of the day pushing Val.

    To me, Zelphas is the safest lynch - I believe Rogan said yesterday's target was meant to be Zelphas, when Rogan was working with the Town. That means Zelphas isn't one of the confirmed Town roles (like doc, mason, etc.).

    If AV checked Zelphas yesterday, let us know and I suggest we keep going through that list.

  8. - Top - End - #758
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    If anyone's wondering I technically claimed already. Not in absolutes but it shouldn't be too hard to find.
    Going to wait another day (not Day) to vote.
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-06-11 at 10:00 AM.
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  9. - Top - End - #759
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    If anyone's wondering I technically claimed already. Not in absolutes but it shouldn't be too hard to find.
    Going to wait another day (not Day) to vote.
    If you've basically claimed, and presumably privately claimed, why wait or make us dig up the claim instead of making it explicitly?

    I don't find this suspicious, necessarily, but just odd.
    The waiting to post a vote I do find slightly suspicious, but others have posted without voting this Day as well, and I can see waiting for a hint from AV first. (I do get AV waiting to vote until she can compare notes with other townies, since her vote will probably drive the lynch.)

  10. - Top - End - #760
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I also like the idea of JeenLeen winning, and (with the wolf-voider dead) I think the wolves winning is a scant possibility.
    Rogan.

    In honor of bladesape: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ouaq9k3mCiA

    Though, I feel I should ask... was Elenna also the person who was voided, or do you know who another wolf is because you had them voided?
    Happy if you wait to answer until Night so folk still vote Rogan. I do feel bad for the wolves if EVERY NIGHT their NKer got voided.
    I'm not sure if I like the idea of Jeen winning, but since his win requires my death, I am probably definitely biased.
    But I can say I understand this reasoning and have no hard feelings about Jeen.

    In my understanding, the night kill was prevented by Dionysus - Drunken fun twice. See AVs quote below.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I have reason to believe the wolves hit a bane. I'm willing to work with JeenLeen, but if it's all the same, I'd rather tell Rogan to target himself in the night rather than spend our lynch on a member of my towncore. I think with 5 neutrals, we're still looking at 5 wolves to start - a 11/5/5 split runs a danger of early LYLO but it requires wolves to be taking an awful risk. They'd basically have to sacrifice a wolf to get in contact with all neutrals, and then ideally they have vote manipulation and the NKs go their way. The way things are going right now? The situation is either 11/3/1 or 10/3/2, and neutrals have been working well with me.
    I was targeting myself for a short time before a better target came up. No way to proof this before the game ends, but yeah... unless there are good arguments for only one wolf left, I should not die today. My power might be useful, doubly so if there is a suspected killing Ares.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    *sigh* yes, AV, I know killing wolves is more important to you than helping out a neutral. Yes, I’m still going to complain about it.

    That being said, it looks like I’m officially townsiding now. Sorry, wolves, but it makes basically no sense for me to help you any more.

    ...right, that means I have to actually try and find wolves. AV, got any likely targets for us? If not I can do some work myself but knowing me I’ll probably wagon a locktown and mess up the network’s plans.
    Since it is very likely one child of Mr. D is town (and a very effective member) you can be sure AV will be helping you. Jeen might win as well, but right now I should not be a lynch target.

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    I don't see the roleblock assumption. Usually the faction kill either can't be roleblocked, or the wolves can assign it to any of their number to use and then if that person is roleblocked they lose the kill. Plus AV specifically said that the wolves hit a Bane last night, not a RB.



    While I wait for word from the almighty Network, I will vote Zelphas based on this post.
    It is likely that in this setup, the wolves pick one to carry the kill. If this wolf is blocked, neither his normal power nor the night kill will happen. See Xi day 1.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    My list of unconfirmed is above, but I'll type it again:

    Book Wombat
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Libro
    Murska
    Shal06
    Zelphas


    Valmark was also a late vote on Xihirli, plus Xi spent a good amount of the day pushing Val.

    To me, Zelphas is the safest lynch - I believe Rogan said yesterday's target was meant to be Zelphas, when Rogan was working with the Town. That means Zelphas isn't one of the confirmed Town roles (like doc, mason, etc.).

    If AV checked Zelphas yesterday, let us know and I suggest we keep going through that list.
    I said something like that, yes. It's basically impossible for Zelphas to be town. Apogee relayed a kind of dubious Neutral claim.
    I will reread everything I have available to check if I there are things to confirm this claim.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    If anyone's wondering I technically claimed already. Not in absolutes but it shouldn't be too hard to find.
    Going to wait another day (not Day) to vote.
    *nods* Where are my treats?

  11. - Top - End - #761
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    If I'm jumping to the right conclusion on Book Wombat, then I feel like we can safely let Jeen win today? We clear two people a night (at least) between AV's scry and the roleblock, three if we have a tracker. We should have the game basically figured out by tomorrow.

    Once Libro shows up, maybe we'll get info on Zelphas today? A Neutral would be a good check for his ability.

  12. - Top - End - #762
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I'm not sure if I like the idea of Jeen winning, but since his win requires my death, I am probably definitely biased.
    But I can say I understand this reasoning and have no hard feelings about Jeen.
    And no hard feelings to you, either. Just luck of the draw that I want you dead.
    Slight hard feelings to AV if I lose, but not really: I get her position and would be acting similarly if I were in her shoes: help the neutral win if you can, but don't risk the Town to do it.

    In my understanding, the night kill was prevented by Dionysus - Drunken fun twice. See AVs quote below.
    Yeah. N1 and N2 the wolf got voided, then killed. But N3 it seems like they did successfully try to kill someone, but that someone was baned.

    I said something like that, yes. It's basically impossible for Zelphas to be town. Apogee relayed a kind of dubious Neutral claim.
    I will reread everything I have available to check if I there are things to confirm this claim.
    I was hoping it wouldn't come out publicly that he is the neutral claimant. (AV mentioned it to me earlier.) I completely understand if folk want to lynch him. Just I'll be a touch irked if Zelphas turns out to be the final wolf.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Was Elenna voided last Night? Did anyone get redirected? (Don't necessarily need a public answer to this, but would be fun to know.)

  13. - Top - End - #763
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Rogan: I'm the son of Zeus
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Yeah, I was one of the people who guessed yesterday. You were just being so adamant about not killing the vig, it looked weird...

    Also, welcome back, AV!
    <snip>
    Going back some pages, I found this. With Elenna flipping wolf, my paranoia about a wolf infiltrating one of Apogees QTs and learning my role this way seems unnecessary.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    If I'm jumping to the right conclusion on Book Wombat, then I feel like we can safely let Jeen win today? We clear two people a night (at least) between AV's scry and the roleblock, three if we have a tracker. We should have the game basically figured out by tomorrow.

    Once Libro shows up, maybe we'll get info on Zelphas today? A Neutral would be a good check for his ability.
    Since I can't read your mind, I can't tell you how accurate your jumps are. But I can tell you I'd rather survive the day. Town lynching town while there is likely more than one wolf would be sad. Especially if the towny lynched is me!

  14. - Top - End - #764
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Rogan: I'm the son of Zeus


    Going back some pages, I found this. With Elenna flipping wolf, my paranoia about a wolf infiltrating one of Apogees QTs and learning my role this way seems unnecessary.



    Since I can't read your mind, I can't tell you how accurate your jumps are. But I can tell you I'd rather survive the day. Town lynching town while there is likely more than one wolf would be sad. Especially if the towny lynched is me!
    I'm sorry but I dont see how you say it's likely when our only evidence even tangentially related to this topic is about elenna asking why I was certain there were 5 wolves, and the potential lylo day 1 situation which is an incredibly valid reason why it shouldn't be 5 wolves.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Since I can't read your mind, I can't tell you how accurate your jumps are. But I can tell you I'd rather survive the day. Town lynching town while there is likely more than one wolf would be sad. Especially if the towny lynched is me!
    Can't blame you there. I'm keeping my vote on Zelph anyway, it's just with the list getting smaller and smaller we'll have to get the solution in a day or two anyway.

    Here's hoping we get intel on Zelphas through Libro and we can go from there.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    And no hard feelings to you, either. Just luck of the draw that I want you dead.
    Slight hard feelings to AV if I lose, but not really: I get her position and would be acting similarly if I were in her shoes: help the neutral win if you can, but don't risk the Town to do it.



    Yeah. N1 and N2 the wolf got voided, then killed. But N3 it seems like they did successfully try to kill someone, but that someone was baned.



    I was hoping it wouldn't come out publicly that he is the neutral claimant. (AV mentioned it to me earlier.) I completely understand if folk want to lynch him. Just I'll be a touch irked if Zelphas turns out to be the final wolf.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Was Elenna voided last Night? Did anyone get redirected? (Don't necessarily need a public answer to this, but would be fun to know.)
    There is still the possibility of me killing myself some night later, if it does not hurt town. But a town win has priority. Since the number of possible wolves is low, it seems likely there will be a chance for your win, but I hope it won't come today.

    If you want to discuss my stance about your victory, feel free to send me a QT.

    About Zelphas claim and my reveal, I would have remained quiet if there had not been the quote about Z being my target night 2.

    I think there might be something to add about the claim, but I have to check my sources and decide if I can share what I might learn without compromising anybody.

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    I'm sorry but I dont see how you say it's likely when our only evidence even tangentially related to this topic is about elenna asking why I was certain there were 5 wolves, and the potential lylo day 1 situation which is an incredibly valid reason why it shouldn't be 5 wolves.
    What I wanted to say was, Elenna told us she guessed my role. So there was no need for them to infiltrate a QT to learn it. The chance of them hitting the correct QT (Apogee and me or Apogee and someone he told my claim) is quite low anyway.
    I fail to see any connection between my post and your tangent (regarding the number of wolves)? Is there a misunderstanding?


    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Can't blame you there. I'm keeping my vote on Zelph anyway, it's just with the list getting smaller and smaller we'll have to get the solution in a day or two anyway.

    Here's hoping we get intel on Zelphas through Libro and we can go from there.

  17. - Top - End - #767
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    I'm going to put my vote on totadileplayz for now. I figure this will change when AV comes up acting as spokeperson for the Towncore, but meanwhile I'd rather be suspicious of the one arguing for killing a Town member in order to let the Neutral win- worst case you weaken us by two members while Jeen stays in game to help the wolves. Not taking chances.

    Especially when it seems likely that there are at least 5 wolves in 21 players (honestly 5 wolves could still be there even if we had 6 neutrals) so there's still time for Jeen to win if we want to.

    In addition we don't actually know wether the Neutrals are siding with Town, so helping them blindly sounds like a bad plan.
    Last edited by Valmark; 2021-06-11 at 04:40 PM.
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  18. - Top - End - #768
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I'm going to put my vote on totadileplayz for now. I figure this will change when AV comes up acting as spokeperson for the Towncore, but meanwhile I'd rather be suspicious of the one arguing for killing a Town member in order to let the Neutral win- worst case you weaken us by two members while Jeen stays in game to help the wolves. Not taking chances.

    Especially when it seems likely that there are at least 5 wolves in 21 players (honestly 5 wolves could still be there even if we had 6 neutrals) so there's still time for Jeen to win if we want to.

    In addition we don't actually know wether the Neutrals are siding with Town, so helping them blindly sounds like a bad plan.
    Worst case Jeenleen cripples our vig and tries to help the wolves win because he needs Rogan dead. Causing us to lose our nightly vig shot. Jeenleen can't block anyone other then a son of Zeus. And it would be our fault since jeenleen needs to try to win. And it's the worst idea long-term trying to ensure neutrals victory when it doesn't actually hurt our chances is a better long term idea since this shows that future neutrals can feel comfortable allying with town and revealing their roles. If we can't follow through even when we are guaranteed a victory the town shows they are not worth being trusted by future neutrals. I have tried and failed to figure out an outcome where the wolves win and with a town-core I can not find one, so fulfilling the neutrals victory conditions and getting them out of the game so they can do less meddling is precisely what we should do .

    - - - Updated - - -

    I dont know about you Valmark but I believe it Is infinitely more likely for Jeenleen to betray us if we hinder his chances of winning instead of helping him win.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    But Please Tell Me AV how I'm wrong on this, because as Far as I can see it's in our best interests to ensure as many chips are on our side as possible.
    Here's the actual split:

    ---4 towncore, where if they're scum they're throwing the game
    ---4 strong town, where there's mech reason to trust them but a plausible explanation for why that reason is a lie
    ---2 weak town, where there's no mech reason to trust or distrust but my gut is leaning town
    ---3 neutrals, who almost certainly are actually neutrals
    ---1 weak scum, where there's no mech reason to trust or distrust them but my gut is leaning scum
    ---1 scumcore, where I can't think of a single plausible explanation for why they're not scum - and considering the logic pretzels I'm twisting into to justify some of those strong town not being towncore, that's saying something

    So there's 4 people who are guaranteed trustworthy, 3 dishonest neutrals that I can trust to be dishonest, and 8 people who might be wolves, with varying degrees of plausibility. If there's two scum against us, things can easily go against us, especially if my paranoia is justified and there's scum hiding in my strong town leans.

    7-4-2-2 Once Again today.
    7-3-2-2 Rogan being lynched
    8-2-2-2 Tonight The Wolves will probably be baned once more and thus unable to do a night kill since we clearly have that on lock down. and I'll try to do the whole wolves being killed last bit to accentuate the whole worst case scenario.
    8-1-2-2 an innocent townie dies, so that the killer wolf will still be around so they can't perform any night kills.
    9-2-2 Now the last townie is confirmed tonight
    9-2-1 the other wolf dies
    9-2-0 The Wolf who's night kill was on lockdown the entire time is now dead.

    Yeah, I can not see Town losing this game in the worst case scenario so long as we keep the neutrals content by you know fulfilling their objectives.

    ...

    While that may appear to be the worst case scenario it is a gross simplification.

    7-4-2-2 Once Again today.
    7-3-2-2 Rogan being lynched
    8-1-2-2 scry, wolf lockdown, and undead vig shot
    8-0-2-2 last unconfirmed town dies.
    8-2-1 Scry, Wolf Lockdown, and Undead Vig Shot.
    8-2 Wolves lose their last member.
    [/quote]

    Your "worst case scenarios" involve us continuing to get lucky in baning/roleblocking the NK, me having confirmed 7 people instead of 4, and my leans on who the wolves are being correct. None of that is as guaranteed as you seem to think it is.

    But even that was a simplification as it ignores that Flat_Footed would then gain access to night kills, and thus the town side will have a faster kill progression, irregardless of if we've discovered the wolves or not.
    And if I tell him to shoot the wrong people, we just die faster. If I tell the baner to bane the wrong people, we die faster.

    Here's the actual worst-case scenario, with two wolves (10-3-2 split) who are both in my strong town leans, and so I'm checking all the wrong people:

    D4: Lynch Rogan (towncore), he flips town. 9-3-2.
    N4: Town NKs scumcore, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 7-3-2.
    D5: Lynch weak scum, they flip town. 6-3-2.
    N5: Town NKs weak town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 4-3-2.
    D6: Lynch weak town, they flip town. 3-3-2.
    N6: Town NKs strong town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 1-3-2.

    At this point, there are three people who were in my strong town alive, and the three neutrals. One of those Strong Town is actually town, the other two are scum. Dionysus child is in towncore, so Snowblaze has checked out at this point. Zelphas could vote either way, or could've just checked out by this point as well. Even if JeenLeen successfully votes with town (a 1 in 3 chance), it's a coinflip who wins the lynch. D7 would be LYLO, and it's a 5/6 chance that we lose. Here's an alternate version:

    D4: Lynch scumcore, he flips town. 9-3-2.
    N4: Town NKs weak scum, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 7-3-2.
    D5: Lynch weak town, they flip town. 6-3-2.
    N5: Town NKs weak town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 4-3-2.
    D6: Lynch strong town, they flip town. 3-3-2.
    N6: Town NKs strong town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 1-3-2.

    There's one towncore, two strong town, and three neutrals. Rogan is probably dead at this point, so JeenLeen votes town. Zelphas might be checked out. Snowblaze is either voting for town (if the last towncore is Dionysus) or is checked out and doesn't care. It's a coinflip again, but this time JeenLeen isn't guessing on who needs to be helped.

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    However, I'd at least like to know the suspect list since we are not the ones blessed with information so we'd have relative less knowledge to be able to sus out the culprit. And it is bull**** if you want us to do so without it as that's withholding information from the town.
    I'm withholding information from 8 people with one or two wolves among them. I did warn earlier that this kind of path to victory would be un-fun. Sucks.

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    Worst case Jeenleen cripples our vig and tries to help the wolves win because he needs Rogan dead. Causing us to lose our nightly vig shot. Jeenleen can't block anyone other then a son of Zeus. And it would be our fault since jeenleen needs to try to win. And it's the worst idea long-term trying to ensure neutrals victory when it doesn't actually hurt our chances is a better long term idea since this shows that future neutrals can feel comfortable allying with town and revealing their roles. If we can't follow through even when we are guaranteed a victory the town shows they are not worth being trusted by future neutrals. I have tried and failed to figure out an outcome where the wolves win and with a town-core I can not find one, so fulfilling the neutrals victory conditions and getting them out of the game so they can do less meddling is precisely what we should do .

    - - - Updated - - -

    I dont know about you Valmark but I believe it Is infinitely more likely for Jeenleen to betray us if we hinder his chances of winning instead of helping him win.
    This whole post is just helping convinc me it's a better idea to lynch JeenLeen than Rogan. If we lynch Rogan, JeenLeen could still betray us late-game if it suited his purposes. If we lynch JeenLeen, Rogan isn't going to be betraying us late-game. I mean, if we're losing at least one person's support right now anyway, may as well be a neutral instead of a guaranteed townie.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I'd kinda like to see people thoughts on various folks. See what leans people are getting without the information I have, so that I can get a better lean on them, or maybe have something pointed out to me that I wasn't thinking about.


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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Here's the actual split:

    ---4 towncore, where if they're scum they're throwing the game
    ---4 strong town, where there's mech reason to trust them but a plausible explanation for why that reason is a lie
    ---2 weak town, where there's no mech reason to trust or distrust but my gut is leaning town
    ---3 neutrals, who almost certainly are actually neutrals
    ---1 weak scum, where there's no mech reason to trust or distrust them but my gut is leaning scum
    ---1 scumcore, where I can't think of a single plausible explanation for why they're not scum - and considering the logic pretzels I'm twisting into to justify some of those strong town not being towncore, that's saying something

    So there's 4 people who are guaranteed trustworthy, 3 dishonest neutrals that I can trust to be dishonest, and 8 people who might be wolves, with varying degrees of plausibility. If there's two scum against us, things can easily go against us, especially if my paranoia is justified and there's scum hiding in my strong town leans.
    Your "worst case scenarios" involve us continuing to get lucky in baning/roleblocking the NK, me having confirmed 7 people instead of 4, and my leans on who the wolves are being correct. None of that is as guaranteed as you seem to think it is.



    And if I tell him to shoot the wrong people, we just die faster. If I tell the baner to bane the wrong people, we die faster.

    Here's the actual worst-case scenario, with two wolves (10-3-2 split) who are both in my strong town leans, and so I'm checking all the wrong people:

    D4: Lynch Rogan (towncore), he flips town. 9-3-2.
    N4: Town NKs scumcore, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 7-3-2.
    D5: Lynch weak scum, they flip town. 6-3-2.
    N5: Town NKs weak town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 4-3-2.
    D6: Lynch weak town, they flip town. 3-3-2.
    N6: Town NKs strong town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 1-3-2.

    At this point, there are three people who were in my strong town alive, and the three neutrals. One of those Strong Town is actually town, the other two are scum. Dionysus child is in towncore, so Snowblaze has checked out at this point. Zelphas could vote either way, or could've just checked out by this point as well. Even if JeenLeen successfully votes with town (a 1 in 3 chance), it's a coinflip who wins the lynch. D7 would be LYLO, and it's a 5/6 chance that we lose. Here's an alternate version:

    D4: Lynch scumcore, he flips town. 9-3-2.
    N4: Town NKs weak scum, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 7-3-2.
    D5: Lynch weak town, they flip town. 6-3-2.
    N5: Town NKs weak town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 4-3-2.
    D6: Lynch strong town, they flip town. 3-3-2.
    N6: Town NKs strong town, scum NKs towncore, both flip town. 1-3-2.

    There's one towncore, two strong town, and three neutrals. Rogan is probably dead at this point, so JeenLeen votes town. Zelphas might be checked out. Snowblaze is either voting for town (if the last towncore is Dionysus) or is checked out and doesn't care. It's a coinflip again, but this time JeenLeen isn't guessing on who needs to be helped.



    I'm withholding information from 8 people with one or two wolves among them. I did warn earlier that this kind of path to victory would be un-fun. Sucks.



    This whole post is just helping convinc me it's a better idea to lynch JeenLeen than Rogan. If we lynch Rogan, JeenLeen could still betray us late-game if it suited his purposes. If we lynch JeenLeen, Rogan isn't going to be betraying us late-game. I mean, if we're losing at least one person's support right now anyway, may as well be a neutral instead of a guaranteed townie.[/QUOTE]

    And why the hell aren't you telling us who the scum are? You know so we can vote them?

    - - - Updated - - -

    For my reads I legitimately believe shal06 is a wolf. Why? They have not contributed in this game at all in fact I'm not actually sure if they shouldn't have been auto-lynched them being quiet is a solid tactic to distract from attention what other may see and experience. I do not recall a single post of theirs that has shown to be helpful in any way.

  21. - Top - End - #771
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    And why the hell aren't you telling us who the scum are? You know so we can vote them?
    This:

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Bladescape, I suppose. Seer days are a bit boring.
    I'm not confident I can solve the game on mech alone, and I don't wanna just come out today guns blazing screaming an accusation from the network. I'm giving time to see what people think without influencing their knowledge, get their opinions, see what they've spotted that's weird about others. If your plan for winning the game is "do nothing because that's AV's problem", you are the reason I set up these huge networks in the first place. People refusing to play the game for one reason or another because effort is bad is why I end up putting in a lot of effort into weird plays in most games - because if town was left to its own devices to just figure things out based purely on input from townies, a solid third of townie players might very well auto-lynch most of the time. It's also a big part of why this path to victory is unfun - it puts everything in the hands of one person who might just be really wrong about basically everything. That's why I usually view vigilante as an inherently anti-town townie role.

    We're 16 hours into a 48 hour game. I'm planning to share what I've got, but not yet. I wanna see other people participating, in the hopes that their participation will help solidify my own suspicions one way or the other. Saying "well these 6 people probably suck, good luck to AV on figuring out which ones" doesn't help. "We should lynch towncore to maybe win a neutrals affection" doesn't help.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    And why the hell aren't you telling us who the scum are? You know so we can vote them?
    Oh, and it doesn't help that based on your arguments so far, you're convinced that there's one wolf left and that we should prioritize JeenLeen's win over town, so even if I told you who my scumcore was you'd still say vote Rogan. Pick a lane, my dude.


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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    This:



    I'm not confident I can solve the game on mech alone, and I don't wanna just come out today guns blazing screaming an accusation from the network. I'm giving time to see what people think without influencing their knowledge, get their opinions, see what they've spotted that's weird about others. If your plan for winning the game is "do nothing because that's AV's problem", you are the reason I set up these huge networks in the first place. People refusing to play the game for one reason or another because effort is bad is why I end up putting in a lot of effort into weird plays in most games - because if town was left to its own devices to just figure things out based purely on input from townies, a solid third of townie players might very well auto-lynch most of the time. It's also a big part of why this path to victory is unfun - it puts everything in the hands of one person who might just be really wrong about basically everything. That's why I usually view vigilante as an inherently anti-town townie role.

    We're 16 hours into a 48 hour game. I'm planning to share what I've got, but not yet. I wanna see other people participating, in the hopes that their participation will help solidify my own suspicions one way or the other. Saying "well these 6 people probably suck, good luck to AV on figuring out which ones" doesn't help. "We should lynch towncore to maybe win a neutrals affection" doesn't help.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Oh, and it doesn't help that based on your arguments so far, you're convinced that there's one wolf left and that we should prioritize JeenLeen's win over town, so even if I told you who my scumcore was you'd still say vote Rogan. Pick a lane, my dude
    Actually no. If we knew who a wolf was we could keep that wolf on lockdown to verify if there are one or two wolves. And have the vig shoot themself when we have thoroughly established everyone that is alive is town besides this one person.

  23. - Top - End - #773
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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    And if I'm wrong?


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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    I've seen these types of comments both in thread and out of thread. I would like to mention that it's probably not the best evidence towards any point "gac3 is smarter than that" or "clearly he would know better". I fully admit that I've made some mistakes both in setting up/balancing the game and a few much smaller ones during actual play. I'm still getting the hang of this side of things.

    Not trying to say anyone is right or wrong on their analysis, just saying that my competence should not be taken for granted.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    And if I'm wrong?
    Then it doesn't matter we have a reason to believe a certain way and we showed we were interested in trying to help jeenleen but something that we thought was proven incorrect. It doesn't vilify the town but makes us say hey sorry about that Jeenleen really tried to help you win there bud.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    Then it doesn't matter we have a reason to believe a certain way and we showed we were interested in trying to help jeenleen but something that we thought was proven incorrect. It doesn't vilify the town but makes us say hey sorry about that Jeenleen really tried to help you win there bud.
    I'm more willing to apologize for being wrong about not trusting a neutral and not trusting a townie than I am willing to lynch a townie on purpose.

    If you put as much effort into figuring out who you think is scum as you did into convincing me to just tell you, you'd already have a good idea and town would be better off for having your musings.


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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'm more willing to apologize for being wrong about not trusting a neutral and not trusting a townie than I am willing to lynch a townie on purpose.

    If you put as much effort into figuring out who you think is scum as you did into convincing me to just tell you, you'd already have a good idea and town would be better off for having your musings.
    I have I seriously believe shal06 is a wolf.
    Zelphas is apparently a neutral.
    Libro while inactive does show at least some willingness to play as town he's light town.
    Book Wombat is inactive as well but he always is.
    Cao went through the effort of getting rid of a neutral day 1 this along with his latter behavior makes me believe he is town.
    Book Wombat, and Murska I can not possibly read one way or another.

    So the wolves are likely among Book Wombat, Murska, and Shal06.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    I have I seriously believe shal06 is a wolf.
    Zelphas is apparently a neutral.
    Libro while inactive does show at least some willingness to play as town he's light town.
    Book Wombat is inactive as well but he always is.
    Cao went through the effort of getting rid of a neutral day 1 this along with his latter behavior makes me believe he is town.
    Book Wombat, and Murska I can not possibly read one way or another.

    So the wolves are likely among Book Wombat, Murska, and Shal06.
    Appreciated, thanks.


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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    But my opinion here doesn't matter I don't have all of the info but you do things you will see as obvious reads for one person or another will be distorted from info I couldn't possibly have obtained. This ultimately makes any effort I have to reads feel fruitless.

    While I did once see the possibility of shal being a wolf it's a lot more likely that the child of demeter learned you were going to be resurrected and just kept silent so they were capable of restarting it once more if you passed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Sorry not shal being a wolf but shal being a child of demeter.

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    Default Re: Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

    Quote Originally Posted by totadileplayz View Post
    But my opinion here doesn't matter I don't have all of the info but you do things you will see as obvious reads for one person or another will be distorted from info I couldn't possibly have obtained. This ultimately makes any effort I have to reads feel fruitless.
    I don't know how many times I have to say it before it sinks in: your opinion matters to me, because it helps shape mine. I have my own suspicions but I'm worried that I'm blinded to something important. Having an extra dozen pairs of eyes looking over the public stuff would be helpful for spotting things I missed, hearing why this person suspects that person instead of somebody else is useful for telling me if I'm overreacting or if town is generally thinking along the same lines I am.

    Like, if everybody was as active today as they were D1, I'd have basically no problem throwing Rogan to the lynch, because I'd be that much more confident in town's ability to handle things without him. But with the way things are going, with people apparently just sitting around waiting for me to tell them who to lynch? Which they were all doing even before I indicated I even had a name to give them at all? Like hell I'm giving up one of my tools for winning the game just to maybe do a neutral a favor. Maybe tonight, but not today.


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