Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

[Book Wombat]

So yeah, I'm Child of Dionysus (Drunken Fun).
For those curious I targeted Xihirli (N1), Valmark (N2) and Elenna (N3 on recommendation by AvatarVecna).
As for why bladescape had a copy of my power I believe their sibling helped, not sure though.

[JeenLeen]

It seems like the vote isn't going to Rogan, so I'm going to go on and throw one to Zelphas.

Based on the claim info that I got from AV about Zephas, if Zelphas flips neutral, this will 100% confirm Snowblaze as neutral. And we know a Dionsyian is Town (our voider), so she has all the reason to ally with Town.
That should also mean that there's no neutrals who might ally with the wolves left. Yeah; there is me, but the wolves have been consistently voided. Even assuming AV isn't exaggerating her suspicions, it's unlikely they will win at this stage unless they are extremely lucky or have an extremely lucky setup.
If Zelphas flips wolf... well, I have some reasons to suspect there's actually 5 wolves*, so I'll just hope he's not a wolf and I don't lose for helping Town.
*AV knows them, and I'd rather not share publicly

I still ask that Rogan shoot himself tonight.

I'm probably going to 'check out' for most of the rest of the day to focus on work, and the Day in general. I might check back a bit sometime tomorrow before Day ends, but likely won't really be back until Night falls.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm not confident I can solve the game on mech alone, and I don't wanna just come out today guns blazing screaming an accusation from the network. I'm giving time to see what people think without influencing their knowledge, get their opinions, see what they've spotted that's weird about others. If your plan for winning the game is "do nothing because that's AV's problem", you are the reason I set up these huge networks in the first place. People refusing to play the game for one reason or another because effort is bad is why I end up putting in a lot of effort into weird plays in most games - because if town was left to its own devices to just figure things out based purely on input from townies, a solid third of townie players might very well auto-lynch most of the time. It's also a big part of why this path to victory is unfun - it puts everything in the hands of one person who might just be really wrong about basically everything. That's why I usually view vigilante as an inherently anti-town townie role.

We're 16 hours into a 48 hour game. I'm planning to share what I've got, but not yet. I wanna see other people participating, in the hopes that their participation will help solidify my own suspicions one way or the other. Saying "well these 6 people probably suck, good luck to AV on figuring out which ones" doesn't help. "We should lynch towncore to maybe win a neutrals affection" doesn't help.

So, to put all my views out in public, here's what I've said in my QT to AV/the town.


Confirmed Town

• AV
• Rogan
• Flat_Footed
• [Doctor]
• [Mason]
• [Roleblocker] - EDIT: BookWombat

I would count all 6 of these in towncore given the Doc save, Wolves being roleblocked, and the Mason confirmed town. Rogan has now killed a Wolf and Flat_Footed gave info leading to the Bladescape lynch. Will not vote them.

Nearly Confirmed Town

• Valmark
• Mornshine

Both of them were late on the Xi wagon, which caused the lynch. Will not vote them.



Strong Town Lean

• Rogue_Alchemist
• Totadileplayz

RA pressured Xi constantly and Totadile went back and forth on the Day Xi was lynched but ended on Xi. When it was so close, I don't see Wolf!Totadileplayz actually voting for Xi.



Confirmed Neutral

• Jeen

Jeen is confirmed by role info for the Zeus kids. Technically is hostile to town but I'm on board with helping him win when we can.



Very Likely Neutral

• Snowblaze

There is technically a way that Snow is not Neutral, described below with Libro.



People I'm suspicious of:

• Zelphas
  
• BookWombat
• Libro
• Murska
• Shal06

Spoiler: Details

Show

Zelphas hasn't done anything big that makes me suspect him but supported the Snow wagon over Xi. Says the Snow wagon wasn't great but doesn't suggest anyone else. Today we learn that he's a Neutral claim, which doesn't help at all. I think he's the best lynch today.

BookWombat posted once on Day 2 to say he didn't have any reads, popped in Day 3 only to vote Blade. So we know he's somewhat paying attention. Now not voting until later in the day and we have no reads. Barring a really good claim, he's high on my list.

Libro could be a big problem if he's a wolf. He is not alignment confirmed and could easily give us information that would lead to a bad lynch. The vote on Valmark on Day 2 isn't great but . He told us Snow was Neutral so there's the chance that we have a Libro/Snow Wolf team who is happy to let us spend a couple Days lynching other targets.

Murska voted Val "just to give some extra candidates." My instinct is if he was an engaged wolf he would have voted Snow and put it over the edge. Aside from this, I don't see much strong evidence one way or the other.

Shal06 was absent for a couple Days now. Not helpful, but my instinct is that Wolves would be a bit more engaged, especially as someone who hasn't played recently. I don't see him as Wolf being quiet on purpose or he could have helped Xi survive the lynch.

---

I was waiting to see if AV's scry or any town powers yesterday gave us a Wolf and therefore a clear lynch target. It sounds like we do not have a clear Wolf to lynch, but hopefully the scry cleared one of the people from my suspicious section.

Looking back at the roles, the Beast role and the Hard to Kill role are both still in the game and could make sense for Wolves. Those would both give us problems so I'm now fully on the side of lynching someone suspicious before Rogan.

Would like everyone from my bottom section to give reads. Murska's top choice is apparently Zelph, but that's all I got.

---

We still have 5 people with no posts and 4 people not voting. Looking at the list of Not Voting I don't actually mind most of it - there's a Beast somewhere and there shouldn't be a reason to risk AV, Flat, or Rogan.

---

Vote Count:

Rogan (2): Totadileplayz, JeenLeen
Zelphas (3): Murska, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape
Totadileplayz (1): Valmark


Not Voting: AvatarVecna, BookWombat, Flat-Footed, Rogan
No Posts: Libro, Mornshine, Rogue_Alchemist, Shal06, Zelphas

[JeenLeen]

So yeah, I'm Child of Dionysus (Drunken Fun).
For those curious I targeted Xihirli (N1), Valmark (N2) and Elenna (N3 on recommendation by AvatarVecna).
As for why bladescape had a copy of my power I believe their sibling helped, not sure though.

Valmark is Hermes Strategic Placement and hid behind bladescape.
Hence bladescape got voided when you targeted Valmark. That makes all the power charges bladescape had make sense.

- - - Updated - - -

edit: this is deduction, not anything told me privately

[Book Wombat]

Valmark is Hermes Strategic Placement and hid behind bladescape.
Hence bladescape got voided when you targeted Valmark. That makes all the power charges bladescape had make sense.

Ooh, that would make sense indeed.

[JeenLeen]

Ooh, that makes sense indeed.

At first I thought "Book Wombat must be lying", but that is absurd since you are verified Town and even a wolf in your situation would have little reason to lie.
As I tried to think of what could be false, the pieces all clicked together.

[AvatarVecna]

Also I'm now glad that I held off on giving a name, because it turns out my scum core had an explanation. Someone relatively trustworthy has floated a plausible explanation.

[JeenLeen]

Valmark, would you say who you targeted each night and why?
That might help drive discussion.

---

flat_footed: I guess you didn't have a power N1 (only Batcathat dead), N2 you scried bladescape, and N3 you <something redacted AV probably knows and you might not want to share publicly>

---

We know Rogan and Book Wombat's actions.
Anyone else who should say who they targeted to help discussion, maybe catch a lie, etc.?

I think I said this already, but for me it was N1 Elenna (I had no good leads), N2 bladescape (to confirm my power/neutrality), and N3 JeenLeen (since asked not to void Rogan).
It'd be nice to get some intel from others, but I understand if you want to keep the wolves from knowing who has what power. Even if it's not terrible if say, the watcher or tracker get outted, that makes it more likely they can discern who the baner is. I think we need the baner to stay protected/private the most out of all the roles.

[Rogan]

The following should only include public knowledge. But I did not go back to check everything, so if there is something included you did not know, feel free to send me a QT and I will see what I can do to clear your confusion.


Zeus: As a child of Zeus you hold more power than the average demigod.

• Mystical Might: You have a knack for manipulating the mist that helps hide the mythical monsters from mundane eyes. Each night, choose two people to target. Any action that targets one of your choices, will instead be used on the other. Xi
• Lightning Control: You can manipulate the pure electric power of your father. Each night you may choose one person to kill with your lightning. (Rogan)

Poseidon: You are the child of the god of the sea and King of Atlantis.

• Healing Waters: You have learned that you can use water to heal yourself and others. Each night you may choose one person and they are immune to dying that night. (Unknown player, preventing a wolf kill)
• Big Reveal: Your dad both has your back and a dramatic streak. At any point during the game, you can ask the DM to reveal your role and faction to others. At the time of use, you may choose to have me announce it openly in the main thread or privately to up to two individuals in their role QT. (I will do this as soon as I see the request and am able. I cannot promise that if you make the request while I am asleep or at work that it will happen until after I complete said activity though I will try if possible.) (unlikely to be in the game, unless AV wants to keep this a secret)

Demeter: Your mother is the queen of plants and grain.

• Sibling: You begin the game with knowledge of another child of Demeter. (Apogee)
• Sibling: You begin the game with knowledge of another child of Demeter. (Unknown player is unknown and silent, but the chances point towards town)

Ares: As a child of Ares, you are exceptionally skilled in battle.

• Hard to Kill: You are exceptionally tough. The first time you /would die, you don't.
• Vicious Warrior: It is near impossible to escape battle with you unscathed. If you die, one person responsible is randomly killed in the process.

No info for both of them.

Athena: While skilled in combat, the children of Athena's most dangerous weapon is their agile mind.

• Divine Deduction: Your mind is always moving as you keep an eye on those around you. Each night choose someone to watch and learn who their parent is. (Libro, fast counter claim. Silent)
• Lookout: You are confident that you can catch the guilty patty in the act. Each night choose one person to target. You see anyone who targets your choice during the night. (No info)

Apollo: Children of Apollo are some of the most diverse in powers because of his diverse list of domains.

• Prophecy: With the approval of your father, you have limit access to his gift of prophecy to help find the culprits. Each night target one person and see their faction (town, neutral, wolf). (AV, narrator confirmed)
• Smile like Sunshine: Children of Apollo are especially charming and have a way with words. Your vote counts as two when tabulating the result at the end of the day.(no public claim. Possibilities can be reduced by analyzing the vote results. Did not vote for Xi)

Hephaestus: You have knack for invention and crafting, much like your father.

• Scanner: You invented a scanner that lets you copy the abilities you see around you. Any power used on you gives you a single charge of that power to use on future nights. Blades
• Booster: You have invented a device to help boost people's natural powers. Each day choose someone to target. That night they will be given a boost to their power. (Night actions that change your target or prevent your action will influence your action the following day.) (No info)

Aphrodite: You have inherited some of your mother's beauty and charm.

• Charmspeak: You have a supernatural talent for getting people to do what you want. Each night target one person. During the following day phase you will be able to change who that person is voting for. ( No indication of them being in the game)
• Deceptive Appearance: You are skilled at getting people to see what you want them to see when they look at you. Each night you may choose to change either what alignment you scry as or who your parent is revealed as for roles that target you that night. (No info)

Hermes: The children of Hermes might not always be the most skilled in battle but often are some of the stealthiest and most dexterous.

• Light of Foot: You are particularly stealthy and are able to follow people around without detection. Each night choose someone to track. You see who they target that night.
• Strategic Placement: You are not a fighter. More a runner. Each night choose one person to hide behind. Anyone who targets you that night will instead target the person you hid behind. Be careful though, if they die in the night, you will too.

(I don't remember any info about them, but I feel like there was something about one of them...)

Dionysus: You can be quite a lot of fun at parties, able to induce drunkenness or madness among those around you.

• Drunken Fun: Everyone is too stressed out and you just want to help them relax. Each night you can choose someone to help loosen up. They are unable to use their power that night and wake up with a hangover. (Not known to the public, but basically sure to be town (and effectively) for preventing kills)
• Induce Madness: You are able to change people's perceptions and intentions by inducing minor madness. Choose one person and redirect who their power targets that night.Elenna

Hades: You're connection with your father gives you special powers over the dead or access to the underworld.

• Command Spirits: You have the ability to summon and control spirits. Each night choose one dead player and gain the use of their power for the night. (I think it was implied he used AVs power and helped catching a wolf)
• Highway to Hades: You know a secret path from camp to the underworld. You begin with access to the "Underworld" QT and may speak freely in the QT with the dead players. At any point in the game, you can choose to end this access in exchange for bringing one dead player back into the game. (No public claim, but resurrection of AV)

Spoiler: Player List

Show

Apogee: dead town
AvatarVecna: alive town
Batcathat: dead neutral
Bladescape: dead wolf
BookWombat: alive ?
CaoimhinTheCape: alive ?
Elenna: dead wolf
EmmyNecromancer: out of game neutral
Flat-Footed: alive ?
Jeenleen: alive neutral champ of hera
Libro: alive ?
Mornshine: alive ?
Murska: alive ?
Rogan: alive town
Rogue_Alchemist: alive ?
Shal06: alive ?
Snowblaze: alive neutral child of Ariadne
Totadileplayz: alive ?
Valmark: alive ?
Xihirli: dead wolf
Zelphas: alive neutral?

I think I am missing something here... but let's see what everyone else thinks.

[JeenLeen]

Valmark is Hermes Strategic Placement, almost certainly.
Flat_Footed is Hades Command Spirit.

Smile like Sunshine

I'm pretty sure this is rogue_alchemist, based on them having a passive power and it not mattering that they targeted themself via Induce Madness.
Though guess RA could be one of the Ares kids.

- - - Updated - - -

You did just remind me that Deceptive Apperance is in the game.
If a wolf has that... well, makes AV's ability to find wolves a bit more suspect. But at least there's no way they could have that and a power that lets them pass as Town, and I'm pretty sure RA is not that since Induce Madness was used on him. (Can't see the wolves wasting it a Night just for distancing, and nobody else said they were redirected N1.)

[totadileplayz]

Two notes we know that strategic placement is Valmark.

The person who is the double-voter is either cape or Zelphas.

- - - Updated - - -

And since Zelphas is a known neutral it must be Cape.

[JeenLeen]

The person who is the double-voter is either cape or Zelphas.

Are those the only people who overlapped on all the vote counts that had a +1?
If yes, thanks for doing that analysis.
Also, pretty much proves CaoTheCape as this Role, since Zelphas claimed neutral and there's no good reason to lie about that a Role. Well, unless he's a wolf.

Assuming your conclusion is correct:
If Cao isn't this Role, then Zelphas is a lying wolf.
If Cao is this Role, well, Zelphas is still good to lynch as a possible lying wolf or uncertain neutral.

- - - Updated - - -

ninja'd slightly by totaldile

[totadileplayz]

Are those the only people who overlapped on all the vote counts that had a +1?
If yes, thanks for doing that analysis.
Also, pretty much proves CaoTheCape as this Role, since Zelphas claimed neutral and there's no good reason to lie about that a Role. Well, unless he's a wolf.

Assuming your conclusion is correct:
If Cao isn't this Role, then Zelphas is a lying wolf.
If Cao is this Role, well, Zelphas is still good to lynch as a possible lying wolf or uncertain neutral.

- - - Updated - - -

ninja'd slightly by totaldile

Yep only people who align who are still alive I've been keeping that role identification on the back burner simply trying to glean as much info as I could.

[JeenLeen]

And RA said his power is passive... so of unclaimed or un-deduced-as-someone-else, the possible powers are: Big Reveal, Hard to Kill, Vicious Warrior, Charmspeak (unlikely to exist based on vote patterns), Deceptive Apperance (very doubtful), Highway to Hades.

Although several of these are "wolfish" powers, I still think RA is town based on
1) uncontested claim to be redirected N1
2) pushing Xi vote D2
3) the Roles were weighted RNG to determine town/wolf, so even a wolfy Role could have gone to Town

Yep only people who align who are still alive I've been keeping that role identification on the back burner simply trying to glean as much info as I could.

I appreciate you taking the time to do that analysis. Thanks.

We probably should stop trying to deduce who is what Role from now on, though, lest we give the wolves too clear a shot at our baner.

[AvatarVecna]

You did just remind me that Deceptive Apperance is in the game.
If a wolf has that... well, makes AV's ability to find wolves a bit more suspect. But at least there's no way they could have that and a power that lets them pass as Town, and I'm pretty sure RA is not that since Induce Madness was used on him. (Can't see the wolves wasting it a Night just for distancing, and nobody else said they were redirected N1.)

Correct. This is why neither of my town-scries are in my towncore, but in my strong town - there's a weird outside chance that one of them is Aphrodite/Deceptive Appearance, and without either of them having flipped, I can't be sure. Of course, I've got plans for testing them...

[rogue_alchemist]

Dead/Exited Players
Apogee - N2 vig kill
Batcathat - D1 lynch
Bladescape - D3 lynch
EmmyNecromancer - town-win
Xihirli - D2 lynch
Elenna - N3 vig kill

Living Players
AvatarVecna - Town confirmed (via dying)
BookWombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Flat-Footed - Town basically confirmed (revealed bladescape, Hades who can use dead powers)
Jeenleen - Neutral confirmed (via bladescape's death)
Libro - uncontested Athena
Mornshine - Town likely (Xi's death)
Murska
Rogan - Town basically confirmed (Zeus vig)
Rogue_Alchemist - Town likely (redirected N1, against Xi)
Shal06
Snowblaze - Neutral claim, apparently confirmed now
Totadileplayz - Town likely (argued kill Xi)
Valmark
Zelphas

I can't fact check this right now, so I'm going to go with it as it seems right, as it contains 21 names.
So Apogee was town, BCH was neutral, Bladescape was scum, Emmy was neutral, Xi was scum, and Elenna was scum.

I am also of the opinion there were 5 wolves and likely 5 neutrals based on my impressions of role-interactions and readings of people. With 3 eliminated, we have 2 left.
I have basically been onautopilot since Monday and so only have my rough impressions, and no good way to go pull quotes and things to back me up.

AV is of course town,
Flat-footed pointed us to Bladescape, so either town-core or bussed a wolf buddy and threw the game for some stupid reason,
Rogue_alchemist (of course I know I am town, just trying to be complete) town because pointed us to Xi and argued strongly the entire day,
Rogan is strong town with the claim and subsequent scum kill, or (again) some stupid scum that threw the game.
After that it is really fuzzy to me. Mornshine and libro feel pretty strong town to me because of their voting pattern and information claimed/given.
Totadilez had seemed pretty towny until their strong support of lynching a (all-but)known town today.
Jeen and Snow seem like truthful claims of neutral with info reveals and helpfulness.
So that leaves Book, shal, Cao, Murska, Val, and Zelphas. Val has been pretty active (though I have no idea how much is useless fluff and how much helpful)
Cao was semi-active until recently though again I don't know how helpful.
The others have had too few post to even register in my memory of how active they have been.
So probably wolf reads are:
Zelphas
Murska
totadile
Shal06
Book
Cao
Valmark
I should point out that I am on the outskirts looking in. I am not part of the information club and have no more information than what is public and what I have personally gathered (which isn't much).

[Rogan]

So yeah, I'm Child of Dionysus (Drunken Fun).
For those curious I targeted Xihirli (N1), Valmark (N2) and Elenna (N3 on recommendation by AvatarVecna).
As for why bladescape had a copy of my power I believe their sibling helped, not sure though.

Did not see this while writing my previous post, but I 99% believe this to be true.

It seems like the vote isn't going to Rogan, so I'm going to go on and throw one to Zelphas.

Based on the claim info that I got from AV about Zephas, if Zelphas flips neutral, this will 100% confirm Snowblaze as neutral. And we know a Dionsyian is Town (our voider), so she has all the reason to ally with Town.
That should also mean that there's no neutrals who might ally with the wolves left. Yeah; there is me, but the wolves have been consistently voided. Even assuming AV isn't exaggerating her suspicions, it's unlikely they will win at this stage unless they are extremely lucky or have an extremely lucky setup.
If Zelphas flips wolf... well, I have some reasons to suspect there's actually 5 wolves*, so I'll just hope he's not a wolf and I don't lose for helping Town.
*AV knows them, and I'd rather not share publicly

I still ask that Rogan shoot himself tonight.

I'm probably going to 'check out' for most of the rest of the day to focus on work, and the Day in general. I might check back a bit sometime tomorrow before Day ends, but likely won't really be back until Night falls.

If we catch a wolf today, it's likely I will die tonight. I agree that 5 wolves are likely.

Valmark is Hermes Strategic Placement and hid behind bladescape.
Hence bladescape got voided when you targeted Valmark. That makes all the power charges bladescape had make sense.

- - - Updated - - -

edit: this is deduction, not anything told me privately

Seems likely, I agree.

Valmark, would you say who you targeted each night and why?
That might help drive discussion.

---

flat_footed: I guess you didn't have a power N1 (only Batcathat dead), N2 you scried bladescape, and N3 you <something redacted AV probably knows and you might not want to share publicly>

---

We know Rogan and Book Wombat's actions.
Anyone else who should say who they targeted to help discussion, maybe catch a lie, etc.?

I think I said this already, but for me it was N1 Elenna (I had no good leads), N2 bladescape (to confirm my power/neutrality), and N3 JeenLeen (since asked not to void Rogan).
It'd be nice to get some intel from others, but I understand if you want to keep the wolves from knowing who has what power. Even if it's not terrible if say, the watcher or tracker get outted, that makes it more likely they can discern who the baner is. I think we need the baner to stay protected/private the most out of all the roles.

I want to use this place to thank you for going with the plan that allowed my to successfully kill a wolf.

Valmark is Hermes Strategic Placement, almost certainly.
Flat_Footed is Hades Command Spirit.



I'm pretty sure this is rogue_alchemist, based on them having a passive power and it not mattering that they targeted themself via Induce Madness.
Though guess RA could be one of the Ares kids.

- - - Updated - - -

You did just remind me that Deceptive Apperance is in the game.
If a wolf has that... well, makes AV's ability to find wolves a bit more suspect. But at least there's no way they could have that and a power that lets them pass as Town, and I'm pretty sure RA is not that since Induce Madness was used on him. (Can't see the wolves wasting it a Night just for distancing, and nobody else said they were redirected N1.)

I can't tell for sure, but I tend to disagree about RA. He said passive power but clarified he meant a power without visible usage instead of an always on. Not sure about the exact wording.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

We probably should stop trying to deduce who is what Role from now on, though, lest we give the wolves too clear a shot at our baner.

I mean, yeah. For my role I wasn't gonna say anything but after the Day 2 vote:

For votes: There were 3 others voting the same person as me on both days: Bladescape, Elenna, Zelphas. So people could have worked out that the doublevoter is me or any of them.

And now two of them are dead. So yeah, I can confirm I'm the Doublevoter. Day 1 was super confident that the doublevoter was in the right place and had to keep insisting others move their votes.

Maybe speculating other roles in public isn't great but my role at least would have been obvious to Wolves since at least 2 of the 4 possible players with it were Wolves themselves and Zelphas is likely to die today.

So yeah, speculating more and narrowing down who is Doc probably isn't great.



Sidenote: I can now accurately count my vote as double!

---

Vote Count:

Rogan (2): Totadileplayz, JeenLeen
Zelphas (5): Murska, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Rogue_Alchemist
Totadileplayz (1): Valmark


Not Voting: AvatarVecna, BookWombat, Flat-Footed, Rogan
No Posts: Libro, Mornshine, Shal06, Zelphas

[AvatarVecna]

I mean, yeah. For my role I wasn't gonna say anything but after the Day 2 vote:



And now two of them are dead. So yeah, I can confirm I'm the Doublevoter. Day 1 was super confident that the doublevoter was in the right place and had to keep insisting others move their votes.

Maybe speculating other roles in public isn't great but my role at least would have been obvious to Wolves since at least 2 of the 4 possible players with it were Wolves themselves and Zelphas is likely to die today.

So yeah, speculating more and narrowing down who is Doc probably isn't great.



Sidenote: I can now accurately count my vote as double!

---

Vote Count:

Rogan (2): Totadileplayz, JeenLeen
Zelphas (5): Murska, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Rogue_Alchemist
Totadileplayz (1): Valmark


Not Voting: AvatarVecna, BookWombat, Flat-Footed, Rogan
No Posts: Libro, Mornshine, Shal06, Zelphas

I can appreciate the cruel irony of making a vote-count addict have to lie about how much their own vote counts for.

[JeenLeen]

Dang, and now the doublevoter is on Zelphas.

I originally voted Rogan, then voted Zelphas but didn't cross out my earlier vote.
Now crossed out both earlier ones and going back to Rogan. Not so much that I think he'll die, but I don't want to accidentally lose by hitting the Ares kid. I can see us keeping a good lead on Zelphas, but not having too many people vote him. E.g., in case he is a lying Ares Beast, AV and flat_footed and some other good powers shouldn't vote him unless it's necessary.

So the below is correct (assuming I'm not ninja'd by a vote):

Vote Count:

Rogan (2): Totadileplayz, JeenLeen
Zelphas (5): Murska, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Rogue_Alchemist
Totadileplayz (1): Valmark


Not Voting: AvatarVecna, BookWombat, Flat-Footed, Rogan
No Posts: Libro, Mornshine, Shal06, Zelphas

- - - Updated - - -

Rogan should vote Zelphas, of course

[totadileplayz]

Zelphas the information AV told me managed to convince me that they are either on the team of the wolves as a neutral or a wolf themself and more likely the latter.

[Rogan]

So Apogee may know more, but I was vortexed? Last night.
I got a "wave of diziness" and then ended up targeting myself. Luckily I have a passive power that doesn't cause harm.
I am unsure if it was a vortex because I apparently ended up targeting myself? I confirmed with gac that this was not because AV was already dead.

no I didn't claim a power, just that it was passive (passive to me means info gathering of some kind). I don't have direct confirmation of Xi. I got a result last night that I got "wave of diziness" and set off to target someone else. Then I got the result at the bottom that my power targeted rogue_alchemist (with information about myself as confirmation). I have fully claimed to Apogee at the end of D1 to coordinate last night, so they can somewhat back me up.

The posts of Rogue about his power I mentioned before.

Dang, and now the doublevoter is on Zelphas.

I originally voted Rogan, then voted Zelphas but didn't cross out my earlier vote.
Now crossed out both earlier ones and going back to Rogan.
Rogan should vote Zelphas, of course

Sneaky sneaky... But I can't be angry with you.

And I will wait a bit. It might save me the trouble of going back to cross my vote out.


I think this game has a strange dynamic...
Some times, hardly any action. And sometimes bursts of activity so it's hard to keep up.

[JeenLeen]

Sneaky sneaky... But I can't be angry with you.

And I will wait a bit. It might save me the trouble of going back to cross my vote out.

To be honest, it started as a mix of laziness and forgetfulness, but then I decided to go with it.
BUT I also dislike such trickery, and Cao seemed to have either caught it or not noticed my second non-vote on Zelphas, so I decided to make it easy and just officially switch back to you.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

To be honest, it started as a mix of laziness and forgetfulness, but then I decided to go with it.
BUT I also dislike such trickery, and Cao seemed to have either caught it or not noticed my second non-vote on Zelphas, so I decided to make it easy and just officially switch back to you.

Yeah, I caught it and kept the count accurate. Would have said something but there was other stuff going on and really, what am I going to do, accuse you of voting against the one person you need dead?

[Valmark]

Valmark, would you say who you targeted each night and why?
That might help drive discussion.

The first night I tried to hide behind rogue_alchemist. I figured I was pretty suspicious, so I tried to hide behind someone of those I had a more neutral opinion on in the hope that someone tried to scry me.
Speaking of which @rogue_alchemist, you said you had questions but I've yet to hear anything.

Second and third night I simply went along with the network's suggestion- I'm not clear on the reason for night 2. I hid behind a baned person on night 3.

...yeah that wasn't a long explanation.

[Rogan]

So, I thought I should find some info about the players I could not remember to be very active.

MornShine was second to last to vote Xi. This would have seemed to create a tie, but if the wolves knew or suspected the identity of the double vote power, it would be a save way to gain towncred.
However, the vote pattern was a single data point at this time. I would need to check the day 1 votes and the known wolves to get a better grasp on the probability.

End of Day 1

Spoiler: Votes

Show

Rogue Alchemist 1: Book Wombat
JeenLeen 1: Rogan
Batcathat 10: Apogee, Avatar Vecna, Emmy Necromancer, Flat Footed, Libro, Murska, RogueAlchemist, Snowblaze, Valmark, Xihirli
EmmyNecromancer 10: Batcathat, Bladescape, The Impossible to spell Cape, Elenna, Jeenleen, Mornshine, shal06, Totafileplayz, Zelphas

BCH, Blade, Elena, Jeen, Morn are out in this scenario, with either confirmed alignment or strong reads/claims.

Cao, shal, tot or Zelphas remaining.

So, a 1 in 4 Chace for a guess on day 2, assuming they did not receive additional information. Correct?

[rogue_alchemist]

I got ninja'd HARD on my reads and others info seems way more clear and supported than mine. I'm still not 100% IRL and so haven't been the best player.

The first night I tried to hide behind rogue_alchemist. I figured I was pretty suspicious, so I tried to hide behind someone of those I had a more neutral opinion on in the hope that someone tried to scry me.
Speaking of which @rogue_alchemist, you said you had questions but I've yet to hear anything.

This actually answers my question definitely, but Apogee had already said it was not an issue, so I dropped it.

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Quotes

Show

I somehow missed the start of the thread, to be presented with four full pages.

AV seems to be acting fairly in-character. Though, it's a bit early in the thread for self-voting and long analyses.

Having read through them, Xihrili is incredibly suspicious. Her posts are just off, not so much in substance but in style. For example:



Xi's grammar is usually better than this, and her tone is usually enthusiastic and borderline-suspicious. That's her whole schtick. At least, from the handful of games I've played with her. This post smacks of almost desperation.



I also note the use of the word "we" in this post, something that's odd for Xi-- she tends to stay a bit aloof, in line with the lynch-pleading. Maybe an intentional wolf deception, maybe a slip of the tongue. And also subject to the grammar and style oddities.

Unfortunately, I could see this discrepancy being the result of a Town role as a Wolf role, from what little I've seen of Xi. Nonetheless, she's still my strongest wolf-read in the thread so far.

Right, since I'm not going to be awake for end-of-day proper, I'm going to move my vote to EmmyNecromancer. Xi's still suspicious, what with her short contentless posts, but we have wolfier wolves to lynch.

The plan to lynch Batthatcat, and get Emmy to demonstrate her powers, seems fairly solid.

Batthatcat's wolfishness seems beyond doubt, given that they claimed and were effectively counterclaimed twice; Emmy's claim to neutrality seems at least plausible, though I'm a bit suspicious of her win-con, which she claims is literally "use the power". Especially for a Child of Nemesis, who is the Goddess of Revenge-- I'd expect killing a specific player or role. Hopefully, this will be mooted as of the vote.

(Side note: @Emmy, I believe it would be best for town if, should you win tonight, you choose to reveal your role and victory and continue as a confirmed neutral. You've already won, why not stick around?)

Ok, I’m cutting this really close, but it took me a while to read through those messages.

All of my reads are pretty shaky right now, but I’m going to vote [color=“red”]Xi[/color]. While I do empathize with her frustrations about characterization, her total dismissal of the possibility that the vig could be town— and the oft-repeated plan to check— seems malicious. add to that her being voided, and too much evidence aside from her tone points to her.

(In case I can’t change text colors on mobile, I’d like to make it clear that yes, this is my vote.)

I’ll expound on others when I get back to a computer, which might take a bit.

Vote goes to bladescape, naturally.

Glad to have you back, AV. Hopefully a proper towncore is incoming.

I'll vote for One Day More, in part because it's the only one I'm familiar with.

I'd advocate I've Got a Little List from The Mikado, but I'm saving that one for when I get a serial-killer role.

Well, day 1 started with a vote for Xi, but this did not stick. However, seeing the way day 1 went there was no need to change back from Xi. She was basically guaranteed to survive after BCH made himself a primary lynch target.

A late vote for Xi on day 2. Thoughts about that above.

The other posts are short and don't tell me anything.

- - - Updated - - -

This behavior is in line with the recruitment thread.

[JeenLeen]

RE Mornshine:

The D1 post doesn't look like distancing. Too much analysis that could come to bite Xi later. So I think that's strong to confirming MornShine as Town.
The D2 vote almost 100% confirms Mornshine as Town. Yeah, maybe their vote didn't guarantee the tie and the death, but it was one of the last ones (if not the last one--haven't gone back to check) and things were so tight it easily could have gone another way via even one vote. I can't see a wolf even bussing their buddy late D2, since there was a decent chance the vote would swing the other way.

On that note, I also think that means a wolf might have voted for Xi early D2, but been too afraid to move their vote off Xi lest it look like an obvious attempt to save her. Now, I think a wolf probably would have moved their vote off Xi, so some towncred to everyone who voted her, but a late move with scant justification would look too suspicious.

- - - Updated - - -

I find it ironic that I voted Xi mostly because I thought she was Town, and might've been the Zeus vig. If I had known she was wolf, I probably would have voted the other wagon to help prolong the game.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

So, I thought I should find some info about the players I could not remember to be very active.

MornShine was second to last to vote Xi. This would have seemed to create a tie, but if the wolves knew or suspected the identity of the double vote power, it would be a save way to gain towncred.
However, the vote pattern was a single data point at this time. I would need to check the day 1 votes and the known wolves to get a better grasp on the probability.



BCH, Blade, Elena, Jeen, Morn are out in this scenario, with either confirmed alignment or strong reads/claims.

Cao, shal, tot or Zelphas remaining.

So, a 1 in 4 Chace for a guess on day 2, assuming they did not receive additional information. Correct?

Right, wolves would have a 1 in 4 shot of knowing my role at the end of Day 1.

So, if wolves are looking at votes near the end of Day 2 (to them) the voter is either voting Snow (me), voting Snow (Zelphas), voting Xi (Totadile), or voting no one (Shal).

That's a 25% chance that the doublevoter is against them. Wolf!Mornshine should feel pretty confident that they could get a Snow lynch and a vote for Snow would have all but guaranteed they would get through the day.