Werewolf/Mafia: Percy Jackson

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Murska

Show

We're murdering AvatarVecna? Sounds good.

I'd agree that Batcathat seems the most suspicious out of our top contenders today.

A lot has been claimed, and said, but I still think BCH seems wolfy, and I don't think a plan that requires twenty people to coordinate, when several of them are actively trying to sabotage it and a few are neutrals with unknown goals, is a good plan.

I'm not sure about that role claim. Name-wise? Eh, sure. Win condition, though? 'At least one of two roles survives' is iffy to me, especially without any related ability - it's a win con that the player themselves can't do anything about.

Valmark to give us some extra candidates.

Questions? The obvious ones about why I'm giving a secondary candidate a push on a day where the lynch target is clear and so we're not gaining any information, or are there other questions that I've missed?

It was pretty abundantly obvious that AV was very useful for Town with his significantly large and well-presented walls of analysis. I can't see any reason a Town vig would fire at someone who's either active and useful Town or a Wolf who's posting so much that they'll certainly incriminate not only themselves but their partners soon enough.

I would much rather have a wolf writing long thoughtful posts of analysis filled with lies and subtle manipulation than a wolf not posting much at all hiding in a large crowd of other people not posting much at all. No matter how good a liar you are, the more you speak, the easier you are to catch in a lie.

Bladescape, I suppose. Seer days are a bit boring.

I don't see the roleblock assumption. Usually the faction kill either can't be roleblocked, or the wolves can assign it to any of their number to use and then if that person is roleblocked they lose the kill. Plus AV specifically said that the wolves hit a Bane last night, not a RB.



While I wait for word from the almighty Network, I will vote Zelphas based on this post.

10 posts in total... Not much to analyze. (I am not sure anymore where the day/might breaks are between the posts, so my analysis might be slightly incorrect on this front)

3 posts on day 1, a semi random vote on AV, changed to BCH later. Was not lucky about the plan to test Emmy.
I think a wolf would like to keep a neutral alive at this point, to increase the number of persons to hide behind and keep someone they could safely push against.

Day 2 has more activities. Throwing doubt on Snow. One vote for Val without much explanation.
Arguing about the usefulness of AV, stating that long posts are helpful, no matter the alignment. By doing this, also throwing some doubt in my direction (my role).

Day 3 a boring vote for the obvious target.

Day 4 a single post at the time writing.

---

So, for someone saying seer days are boring and taking will help town, there are suspicious few posts. Slight wolf lean, but nothing big. Since there simply is not much to go by.

- - - Updated - - -

Shal has not posted in the thread since day 1.

Going to check the rules for auto lynch now.

Autolynch at the end of Night 2 if someone fails to post before then.

So, no Autolynch for someone who started to play but stops later?

[totadileplayz]

Only rule for auto lynches is they must post before day 2 as far as I can find. I don't care who you are this is suspicious.

[gac3]

Spoiler: Murska

Show

10 posts in total... Not much to analyze. (I am not sure anymore where the day/might breaks are between the posts, so my analysis might be slightly incorrect on this front)

3 posts on day 1, a semi random vote on AV, changed to BCH later. Was not lucky about the plan to test Emmy.
I think a wolf would like to keep a neutral alive at this point, to increase the number of persons to hide behind and keep someone they could safely push against.

Day 2 has more activities. Throwing doubt on Snow. One vote for Val without much explanation.
Arguing about the usefulness of AV, stating that long posts are helpful, no matter the alignment. By doing this, also throwing some doubt in my direction (my role).

Day 3 a boring vote for the obvious target.

Day 4 a single post at the time writing.

---

So, for someone saying seer days are boring and taking will help town, there are suspicious few posts. Slight wolf lean, but nothing big. Since there simply is not much to go by.

- - - Updated - - -

Shal has not posted in the thread since day 1.

Going to check the rules for auto lynch now.



So, no Autolynch for someone who started to play but stops later?

Everyone has posted something somewhere since day 3. For he time being I'll leave everyone. But anyone who hasnt posted in day and night, won't count when I'm determining wolves have control for their win con

[Rogan]

Hit post too soon. Will edit in actual replies to the first quotes

RE Mornshine:

The D1 post doesn't look like distancing. Too much analysis that could come to bite Xi later. So I think that's strong to confirming MornShine as Town.
The D2 vote almost 100% confirms Mornshine as Town. Yeah, maybe their vote didn't guarantee the tie and the death, but it was one of the last ones (if not the last one--haven't gone back to check) and things were so tight it easily could have gone another way via even one vote. I can't see a wolf even bussing their buddy late D2, since there was a decent chance the vote would swing the other way.

On that note, I also think that means a wolf might have voted for Xi early D2, but been too afraid to move their vote off Xi lest it look like an obvious attempt to save her. Now, I think a wolf probably would have moved their vote off Xi, so some towncred to everyone who voted her, but a late move with scant justification would look too suspicious.

- - - Updated - - -

I find it ironic that I voted Xi mostly because I thought she was Town, and might've been the Zeus vig. If I had known she was wolf, I probably would have voted the other wagon to help prolong the game.

I tend to agree about the first post. It was long and contained analysis to back the target up. It could have helped day 2.

On day 2, if I remember correctly, only Val voted afterwards.
However, the day was nearly over, so the chances of someone changing to Xi were low. However, assuming wolves guessed right about Cao, Mornshines vote would not have been enough. See Caos Post quoted below for the chances.


Your update confuses me a bit...
Xi was pushing Apogee to out the Vig so he (I) could be killed. Why did you think she was a town vig?

Right, wolves would have a 1 in 4 shot of knowing my role at the end of Day 1.

So, if wolves are looking at votes near the end of Day 2 (to them) the voter is either voting Snow (me), voting Snow (Zelphas), voting Xi (Totadile), or voting no one (Shal).

That's a 25% chance that the doublevoter is against them. Wolf!Mornshine should feel pretty confident that they could get a Snow lynch and a vote for Snow would have all but guaranteed they would get through the day.

Going from no vote to Xi.

Assuming Double voter is on Snow: Safe for a wolf (1vote more for Snow)
Assuming double vote on Xi: Setting Xi up for the lynch.
Assuming double voter inactive: A tie.

Finished updating the post


This is the last post I can find

I think Rogan was joking about Emmy being a necromancer and the fact that he read her name as enemy necromancer

Everyone has posted something somewhere since day 3. For he time being I'll leave everyone. But anyone who hasnt posted in day and night, won't count when I'm determining wolves have control for their win con

Therefore Shal was only active in QTs.
Very suspicious

[AvatarVecna]

Here's an approximate order of the people I'm willing to lynch, from least to most suspicious:

Murska
MornShine
Snowblaze
Libro
Zelphas

People not on that list aren't being considered for today, at least not by me.

[Valmark]

Therefore Shal was only active in QTs.
Very suspicious

This is a pretty good point. Shal06, any thoughts on the current situation?

[Rogan]

Finished updating the post

Therefore Shal was only active in QTs.
Very suspicious

Here's an approximate order of the people I'm willing to lynch, from least to most suspicious:

Murska
MornShine
Snowblaze
Libro
Zelphas

People not on that list aren't being considered for today, at least not by me.

This is a pretty good point. Shal06, any thoughts on the current situation?

While I would like to get an answer to this question as well, it seems like AV knows something not told in the public. So, no vote against Shal from my side.

Still, Shal, I think you should talk a bit more. Even if it's nothing more than "Sorry, I am busy right now and can't do much more than doing what AV suggests in my QT" or similar.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Libro

Show

Bladescape, what say ye?
poking first person who hasn't posted yet, alphabetically



Majority vote at end of day will be lynched. At this point Avatar Vecna has the most votes and is in the hot seat.

If votes are tied, gac3 has decided to resolve it via coinflip.

Honest mistake on my part. My brain went straight to AV and skipped over them.

Moving on to poke BookWombat

IÂ’m quiet until/unless I have something to say. IÂ’m uncomfortable writing for the sake of volume; it feels like adding more noise to an already loud room. Then thereÂ’s the excessive self-editing...

Moving on it turns out I have something to say now that IÂ’ve caught up, and sufficient motivation to write a little RP to boot.



If you are a child of Athena, you have nought of her wisdom. I bear her gift of deduction. While I wouldÂ’ve preferred to remain as an observer I refuse to let such a bold-faced lie stand. What say ye?



Or, perhaps, the person you are impersonating will want your head.


RP done, letÂ’s get to business. IÂ’m certain that Batcathat is lying because my role PM was the Divine Deduction child of Athena and it seems like gac didnÂ’t repeat any roles. IÂ’m town-aligned and wanted to lay low and gather information (first time being a seer/fool woohoo!), but I refuse to let someone wave around my role as theirs without my knowledge/consent.

As for function, IÂ’m certain my role is a spin on the fool. A scryer with useful information but not 100% reliable at finding wolves; instead of opposite or random results for alignment I find out their parents. Combined with the role-analysis earlier in the thread I can provide advisement for who we shoot. I was particularly hoping to find AresÂ’ kid(s), as a Beast role floating about concerns me.

The Devil is typically a full role scry that reveals the targetÂ’s powers/win-cons/alignment.

My scry only reveals who somebody’s parent deity is and we have 2 roles per deity. I could find out someone is “Child of Zeus” but I cannot discern whether they’re “Mystical Might” or “Lightning Control”, and idfk whether they’re town or wolf based on that information. I can only guess based on the two powers each god grants their offspring; hence my intent to find Ares’s kids. Beast and surivive-one-death both seem like they would be strong wolf powers in an all-power-role game. In contrast, both of Poseidon’s children have powers that make little sense on a wolf (baner/narrator-role-reveal).

That said I think I can reliably figure out if someone is neutral, since they wonÂ’t have a parent deity on the main role list.

Well I feel like such an arse for not having a vote on Batcathat

'scuse me while I go bang a head-shaped hole in the wall

Snowblaze scried as Child of Ariadne, so their claim seems to hold water.

bladescape



Agreed.

Soo... what do we have here?
Very few public posts, but I think there was some communication with the Network in the night.

First post skipping a towny and hitting a wolf. It is noticeable now, but I don't think it has a meaning.
There is also some explanation of the rules. Null.

Next post admits the skipping. But again, seems not very important.

Now the big reveal (not the power).
It starts with a reason for staying quiet, with would still be valid now.
Some RP. This might be a way to make the post seem bigger and more memorable than he really is, but I don't think so.
Wanting to stay hidden is logical. The talk about the fool was discussed later.

So, an early claim is good. But the role does not necessarily mean town. It seems more likely, but could still be a wolf. And claiming with this role would seem logical for a wolf.

The next post points out the limits of a parent scry in a game where parents/ powers have no guaranteed alignment. A wolf could use this to lay the foundation of a defense in case a scried player ends up as town.
Also points out he can be very useful to verify neutrals. A wolf might say this if an ally claimed Neutral. Depending on the amount of distrust, he could grant his ally one day more (while gaining town points) or save the wolf.

Spoiler: Scenario

Show

Some wolf: I am neutral
Town: We don't trust you!
Libro: Don't kill him, I can check him tonight.

Next day:

IF lots of suspicion:
Linro: okay, it's not a neutral. Let's kill him.
(Losing a wolf, but gaining trust)

ELSE
Libro: okay, he scried as neutral.
Town: good that this is confirmed without wasting a kill.
(Saving a wolf, but risking getting outed later)

Next post is a vote (for BCH, a neutral, but highlysuspicious at this time) Null

Public confirmation of Snows parent, setting her as neutral. If Snow gets herself killed, Libro is very, very suspicious unless Snow has the power to disguise the parents. The other way round (libro flips Wolf) would not be telling much about Snow. Or anything, really.
Also a vote for blades. Null.

I am not sure... did I miss a post? I will check after posting...

All in all, my first impression was town, but I'm not sure anymore. Can definitely still be town. He would but be my vote target unless there is more evidence against him.

[Grand Arbiter]

Busy day irl.

I scried Murska last night and got "Child of Ares".

Given that the beast role is still unaccounted for I know where I'm not putting my vote. Idk where I'll put it yet tho; I'll figure it out and see what I need to respond to when I'm less burned out.

[Rogan]

Busy day irl.

I scried Murska last night and got "Child of Ares".

Given that the beast role is still unaccounted for I know where I'm not putting my vote. Idk where I'll put it yet tho; I'll figure it out and see what I need to respond to when I'm less burned out.

Another public scry result. For someone with full access to the network, this could help determining verifying claims. To the best of my knowledge, there is a Ares claim from Murska.

Killing Ares Children is something I should do, if there is enough suspicion. If it's the beast, I will die as well, but it will help Town AND Jeen at the same time. Win-Win.

I will go to bed now.
26 hours left for this day, right?

[gac3]

Another public scry result. For someone with full access to the network, this could help determining verifying claims. To the best of my knowledge, there is a Ares claim from Murska.

Killing Ares Children is something I should do, if there is enough suspicion. If it's the beast, I will die as well, but it will help Town AND Jeen at the same time. Win-Win.

I will go to bed now.
26 hours left for this day, right?

Yes. This time estimate is accurate.

[rogue_alchemist]

Just to clear some confusion up. I am child of Hermes: light of Foot (aka tracker). I tried to follow AV N1 and "got dizzy" then ended up following myself and seeing that I targeted myself (seems crazy that a vortexer would point me back to myself, but maybe they thought I was the vig). N2 I tried to follow Valmark, but instead I noticed <redacted> didn't target anyone. *this makes sense that I couldn't find him hiding behind <redacted>, though he didn't mention specifically in public who he hid behind, so I won't out him in case it matters* then N3 I tracked BookWombat, who targeted Elenna. I have been in contact with Apo/AV every night and basically following along with them. I was told that I was used as a test of sorts basically every night, though not who I tested, why, or what the results were, so I haven't had much info besides who I tracked and what I found.

[Murska]

Busy day irl.

I scried Murska last night and got "Child of Ares".

Given that the beast role is still unaccounted for I know where I'm not putting my vote. Idk where I'll put it yet tho; I'll figure it out and see what I need to respond to when I'm less burned out.

Certainly means I'm unlikely to get shot in the night, as well.

[totadileplayz]

Certainly means I'm unlikely to get shot in the night, as well.

I doubt that is by any means a Guarantee. As Far As I'm aware there are 4 people alive right now who can mess with actions.

Healing Waters could protect the vig
Hades could have fog to direct the beast's kill elsewhere.
Hermes would just add to the kill count.
Drunken Fun Stops the Beast kill in the first place.

[Zelphas]

This was a horrible time to be at a wedding all day, and away from home so it's hard to get time to read things.

I'll throw a vote on Shal06 for no since there seems to be a question there from what I could read, and hope that I can see what's going on tomorrow.

[Snowblaze]

Well, at least I know who I need to not die.

CaoimhinTheCape
Libro
Murska
Shal06
Zelphas

...Now I’m townsiding I can’t play the “I’m neutral, I don’t have to do any work” card. *sigh*

Caoimhin was pushed by Bladescape day one, but the way in which it was done I don’t think actually clears them - I seem to remember Caoimhin felt more like part of the argument with AV than Bladescape’s suspect in their own right. But... I’ve been kind of harsh on them earlier, and *shrug* there isn’t anything that actually screams wolf in their ISO. Conflicted on this one.

Libro is a large part of why I’m not currently being killed with fire, which is a bad reason to not vote for someone. Hasn’t really posted much analysis recently, which could be a sign of a demoralised wolf.

Murska... well, Child of Ares is a likely wolf role, and I’ve been hovering around the null point on him for a while... but killing him without evidence seems counterproductive given his possible roles.

Shal06 hasn’t posted since day one, and I have a couple of reasons to suspect him but I don’t think they’re very good reasons. I think we can do better than “kill the inactive”.

Zelphas is my vote; I do genuinely think the post quoted by Murska is suspicious, and not a massive fan of “I haven’t read much so I’ll just chuck a vote on my counterwagon”. I... might also have an ulterior motive for wanting him dead (AV knows what I mean).

[Murska]

I doubt that is by any means a Guarantee. As Far As I'm aware there are 4 people alive right now who can mess with actions.

Healing Waters could protect the vig
Hades could have fog to direct the beast's kill elsewhere.
Hermes would just add to the kill count.
Drunken Fun Stops the Beast kill in the first place.

But what are the odds the wolves have any of these and enough confidence to want to waste their nightkill and another ability on little old me?

[Rogan]

But what are the odds the wolves have any of these and enough confidence to want to waste their nightkill and another ability on little old me?

Close to 0.
On the other hand, town definitely could do it.
But I think, I could move against you even without protection. If you are hard to kill, nothing happens. If you are the beast, Jeen gets his victory.
But you are safe today and the result of the lynch will help determining the best night actions.

[Murska]

Ah, yeah, Town could do it.

But certainly no Wolf would ever be so daring as to launch an attack against me. I mean, what are the odds that I'm actually some other, more vulnerable and important town role?

[AvatarVecna]

Ah, yeah, Town could do it.

But certainly no Wolf would ever be so daring as to launch an attack against me. I mean, what are the odds that I'm actually some other, more vulnerable and important town role?

I'm still kinda hoping that we get through the whole game without the wolf NK hitting even a single time, honestly.

[gac3]

I'm still kinda hoping that we get through the whole game without the wolf NK hitting even a single time, honestly.

Would that be a record? It should be a record.

[AvatarVecna]

Would that be a record? It should be a record.

I'm sure it's happened. I can't recall a time it's happened, but I also haven't exactly been around very long so.

[totadileplayz]

Well, at least I know who I need to not die.

CaoimhinTheCape
Libro
Murska
Shal06
Zelphas

...Now I’m townsiding I can’t play the “I’m neutral, I don’t have to do any work” card. *sigh*

Caoimhin was pushed by Bladescape day one, but the way in which it was done I don’t think actually clears them - I seem to remember Caoimhin felt more like part of the argument with AV than Bladescape’s suspect in their own right. But... I’ve been kind of harsh on them earlier, and *shrug* there isn’t anything that actually screams wolf in their ISO. Conflicted on this one.

Libro is a large part of why I’m not currently being killed with fire, which is a bad reason to not vote for someone. Hasn’t really posted much analysis recently, which could be a sign of a demoralised wolf.

Murska... well, Child of Ares is a likely wolf role, and I’ve been hovering around the null point on him for a while... but killing him without evidence seems counterproductive given his possible roles.

Shal06 hasn’t posted since day one, and I have a couple of reasons to suspect him but I don’t think they’re very good reasons. I think we can do better than “kill the inactive”.

Zelphas is my vote; I do genuinely think the post quoted by Murska is suspicious, and not a massive fan of “I haven’t read much so I’ll just chuck a vote on my counterwagon”. I... might also have an ulterior motive for wanting him dead (AV knows what I mean).

Why did you ignore mornshine?

[Rogan]

Here's an approximate order of the people I'm willing to lynch, from least to most suspicious:

Murska
MornShine
Snowblaze
Libro
Zelphas

People not on that list aren't being considered for today, at least not by me.

Well, at least I know who I need to not die.

CaoimhinTheCape
Libro
Murska
Shal06
Zelphas

Why did you ignore mornshine?

Comparing those lists...
Zelphas is on both lists.
Libro is on both lists.
Murska is on both lists.

AV has Snow and Morn.
Snow has Cao and Shal.

I can understand that snow won't target herself.

Since I gave reasons for voting Shal myself, I can't hold this against Snow either.

So... Cao and Morn are the odd ones out.

[Snowblaze]

I'm clearing MornShine for their vote on Xihirli day two. It's not lock mechanical clear, but wolves were unlikely enough to have bussed that it's "don't revisist for a couple more days" clear.

I don't know of any reason why Caoimhin couldn't be a wolf, so I'm not clearing them. AV has a lot of information I don't, but I'm operating on what I've got rather than trying to second-guess AV. Less likely to drive me mad.

[Rogan]

I'm clearing MornShine for their vote on Xihirli day two. It's not lock mechanical clear, but wolves were unlikely enough to have bussed that it's "don't revisist for a couple more days" clear.

I don't know of any reason why Caoimhin couldn't be a wolf, so I'm not clearing them. AV has a lot of information I don't, but I'm operating on what I've got rather than trying to second-guess AV. Less likely to drive me mad.

Okay, I can understand that reasoning.
I don't agree with it regarding Mornshine since her vote was 8 minutes before the EOD and as the analysis above showed, a Wolf!Morn would have good reason to believe Xi was not set up for the lynch. 5 minutes later, Valmark joined the Xi hater club. This last vote tipped the scales to a 50/50 chance of getting Xi killed instead of you.

But if Morn is a wolf you want to defend, then you would have to be able to disguise your parent OR Libro was lying about his scry.
The last one would mean 6 wolves. Too many in my opinion.
The first one is still possible, but I doubt it.

[Snowblaze]

...still disagreeing there. I wouldn't have the nerve to make that Xihirli vote in wolf!MornShine's place unless I was 100% certain that the double-voter was on me and even then it would be a pretty big risk.

I mean, yes, there's the chance of a large dose of towncred, but MornShine would want to make sure their buddy didn't die and there's a very easy target to be voted for instead. It's too crazy a move for most wolves.

[Rogan]

That's fine, we can agree to disagree.

Maybe one more question: I think you said something like, AV should help help Jeen, a neutral, win.
Now your vote is on Zelphas, another claimed neutral.

Do you think this claim was a lie? (You can send me a QT if you want to keep this away from the public for one reason or the other)

[Snowblaze]

That's fine, we can agree to disagree.

Maybe one more question: I think you said something like, AV should help help Jeen, a neutral, win.
Now your vote is on Zelphas, another claimed neutral.

Do you think this claim was a lie? (You can send me a QT if you want to keep this away from the public for one reason or the other)

I don't know. I'm treating the claim as NAI due to lack of information. I don't have time to set up a QT at the moment, but you can ask AV for more detail about me and Zelphas.

(Also, where did I say that AV should help Jeen win? I do think helping neutrals is a good idea but I don't remember actually saying anything about it.)

[Rogan]

I don't know. I'm treating the claim as NAI due to lack of information. I don't have time to set up a QT at the moment, but you can ask AV for more detail about me and Zelphas.

(Also, where did I say that AV should help Jeen win? I do think helping neutrals is a good idea but I don't remember actually saying anything about it.)

Okay, don't worry about the QT. I think I can figure out what you mean.

Going back, you did not literally AV should help Jeen, but there was this:

*sigh* yes, AV, I know killing wolves is more important to you than helping out a neutral. Yes, I’m still going to complain about it.

Still, I think it would be nice for you to survive and win - unless there is good reason to suspect you are a wolf instead of a neutral.
I don't think I will vote for you today or kill you tonight.

[Snowblaze]

That was just me being snarky about the death of a Child of Dionysus. I’d also prefer to survive and win, so thanks for not plotting my death I guess?