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2021-06-25, 08:34 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- Birmingham, AL
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New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-be-rolled-out
50% false negative rate, 0.5% false positive rate, across all stages of 50 cancers. This will save millions of lives.Cuthalion's art is the prettiest art of all the art. Like my avatar.
Number of times Roland St. Jude has sworn revenge upon me: 2
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2021-06-25, 08:39 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2011
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Standard rare-disease disclaimer, though... 1 in 200 times, you'll be called in for "additional testing", and 1/40,000 times, the second test will also give a false positive... and that's assuming independent random sampling.
If the disease itself is rarer than 1/40,000 patients, false positives are still going to swamp actual positives.Last edited by Rakaydos; 2021-06-25 at 08:40 AM.
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2021-06-25, 08:51 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- Birmingham, AL
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Cuthalion's art is the prettiest art of all the art. Like my avatar.
Number of times Roland St. Jude has sworn revenge upon me: 2
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2021-06-25, 02:15 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2010
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
New cancer cases in general seem to be about 4 in 1000 per year. So it'll swamp a one-test protocol, but a two independent test protocol might be ok. I guess the question is how statistically independent are the false positives.
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2021-06-25, 02:36 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2013
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- Where I am
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
I read somewhere that at any point in time, 90% of people have some kind of cancer but the body is decently good at isolating and destroying the cells before they spread.
Cancer comes when the malignant cells are particularly virulent, or when something else in the body breaks—apparently, the reason you get sunburns is because some of the cells int he's surface of your skin have become cancerous due to UV exposure and that triggered mass-apoptosis in the affected area. Skin cancer thus comes from this mechanism not working properly.
So, if this is true, and I admit I only saw it in the one place so it might now be, such a much more accurate cancer screening test might be able to find and treat cancers before they even become a problem in some cases.
Better cancer treatments are still needed—we should not be living in a world where someone can decide "you know what, I'm gonna let the cancer run it's course" and have that be a rational decision
But in lieu of better treatments, earlier and more accurate detection is good progress.I also answer to Bookmark and Shadow Claw.
Read my fanfiction here. Homebrew Material Here Rater Reads the Hobbit and Dracula
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2021-06-25, 02:49 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- Birmingham, AL
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
I'm like 98% sure that's not true; cancer is, at its very basic, uncontrolled cell growth. It's the body's own cells, which means the body is very bad at detecting it as something not desirable, which is the entire reason we have no real natural defenses against cancer to start with.
Further, sunburn is an incredibly accurate name, because it's a radiation burn.Cuthalion's art is the prettiest art of all the art. Like my avatar.
Number of times Roland St. Jude has sworn revenge upon me: 2
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2021-06-25, 02:52 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2013
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- Where I am
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
I also answer to Bookmark and Shadow Claw.
Read my fanfiction here. Homebrew Material Here Rater Reads the Hobbit and Dracula
Awesome Avatar by Emperor Ing
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2021-06-25, 02:54 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- Birmingham, AL
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2021-06-25, 03:06 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2009
- Location
- Germany
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
At those chances for false positives and negatives, the method can't really prove cancer.
But given that it can test for 50 different cancers with just one blood sample still makes it seem like a really good way to inform people that they should get a full screening for a specific type of cancer. People wouldn't randomly take 50 cancer tests on a whim, but running a blood sample through this test as part of a regular exam? Sure, why not?We are not standing on the shoulders of giants, but on very tall tower of other dwarves.
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2021-06-25, 03:28 PM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2013
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- Where I am
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Well, I can't remember where I read it and it's not in any of the places that I thought to look so just ignore what I said.Yeah.
Like, I think we all dream of the day when your doctor tells you you have cancer, so you just walk into the local drug store and buy a bottle of Robitussin Cough, Cold, and Cancer and taking that as directed for a week fixes you up, but until that happens every little improvement in finding and treating the disease results in exponential gains when it comes to surviving it.I also answer to Bookmark and Shadow Claw.
Read my fanfiction here. Homebrew Material Here Rater Reads the Hobbit and Dracula
Awesome Avatar by Emperor Ing
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2021-06-25, 03:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2013
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
As far as I can tell, Rater is closer to the truth here. Sunburn doesn't "burn" you the way touching a hot stove does: it's a bodily reaction to the UV damage in your cells. Skin cells damaged by UV light become a big cancer risk, and as a result your skin cells have a process in place that can trigger them to essentially self-repair, mitigate damage, or self-destruct. Sunburn is the body's reaction to this UV damage, not an actual burn in the traditional sense.
https://www.mdanderson.org/publicati...4Z1591413.html
edit to add:
I always love the chance to share a Kurzgesagt video https://youtu.be/1AElONvi9WQ. Key takeaways:
1. The cells in our body all have kill-switches to make them self-destruct if something goes wrong and they start to grow improperly. That kill switch usually works, but sometimes it doesn't.
2. The immune system kills most of these cancer cells that don't self-destruct...but some can still slip through the cracks. These few surviving cancer cells are the ones that become an actual problem.Last edited by Ionathus; 2021-06-25 at 04:07 PM.
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2021-06-25, 06:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2014
- Location
- Ontario, Canada
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
IIRC, sunburn is essentially just your cells responding to damage to their DNA.
Most DNA damage can be repaired - your cells have a lot of anti-cancer defenses, and most of them work very, very well.
When your skin starts peeling off, that's apoptosis - the cells recognize the DNA is too far gone to reliably be repaired, and they self-destruct.
This is what I've heard. I don't know it's exactly accurate.
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2021-06-25, 08:41 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2009
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- Birmingham, AL
- Gender
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Cuthalion's art is the prettiest art of all the art. Like my avatar.
Number of times Roland St. Jude has sworn revenge upon me: 2
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2021-06-29, 12:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
But how are we going to get our tales of ordinary people falling to desperation and manufacturing illegal drugs to afford the treatments!?
But in lieu of better treatments, earlier and more accurate detection is good progress.May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.
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2021-06-29, 06:30 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2011
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2021-07-01, 04:43 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2013
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- Where I am
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Tha'ts a different situation entirely.
Breaking Bad is about a man cooking Meth in order to pay for an untested experimental treatment that might be his only shot at beating an otherwise terminal cancer.
I'm suggesting that we should live in a world where Cancer treatments don't make you feel worse than the cancer does.
Chemo and radiotherapies have some nasty side effects. They'll save your life, but you will feel like **** going through it. For some people, looking at the side effects of the treatments, looking at the odds that the treatment will work, looking at how long it'll take before their cancer becomes symptomatic... Some people choose to just have the cancer. Decide that a longer life isn't worth the side effects of the treatment.
And in some cases, that's a rational decision.
We should not live in a world where choosing not to get your terminal illness treated is sometimes a rational call.
But until we can make treatments that don't make you feel worse than the disease they're curing, catching the cancer earlier and missing less of the cancer means that people won't need as much of the treatment. Three weeks of chemo to make sure after they cut out the itty bitty tumor is a lot more bearable than six months of chemo to try and destroy the malignant cysts all over your abdominal cavity, savvy?I also answer to Bookmark and Shadow Claw.
Read my fanfiction here. Homebrew Material Here Rater Reads the Hobbit and Dracula
Awesome Avatar by Emperor Ing
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2021-07-01, 09:47 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2013
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2021-07-05, 11:01 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Mar 2015
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
I wonder about some of these false positive and false negative rates - it depends on the exact study methodology.
These are calculated against some baseline. X people with a cancer and Y people without, and how often they get mixed up in the test results... only we don't know how many people in that group it was tested on were actually truely negative - we only know the proportion that tested negative by some other test. Now in some cases that other test we can assume to be reliable - like an autopsy. In other cases we might be comparing one test with another and simply assuming that the other test is reliable. We are not so much measuring accuracy as agreement between tests.
I could see a world where if a test is really good (call it the best test), it can detect signs before any other test. If you then try and validate it by using other tests then some of its true positives will be labled false positives because the less good test didn't pick them up.
In reality I don't think that this is an issue when people live a long life after the test - you get to see the outcome. But with censored data, where say someone gets tested positive then gets hit by a bus and dies... how should you really judge this?
And as always with this type of science - don't forget your Bayes Theorem; if a cancer is sufficiently rare then even a positive result from an accurate test is more likely a false positive than a true one.
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2021-07-09, 12:25 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2016
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Last edited by Bohandas; 2021-07-09 at 12:31 AM.
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2021-07-09, 10:11 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2009
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- Maryland
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
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2021-07-09, 10:42 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2014
Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Very much this.
+1 all of this. There is a big difference just between three weeks of radiation and six insofar as how horrid you feel, and one of the potential side effects is more cancer. And surgery is isn't exactly pleasant either, nor cheap.
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2021-07-09, 10:45 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- Birmingham, AL
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
Not even the pitch; all season 1, he was getting the money for his family because he saw his imminent death as a foregone conclusion.
ETA: Which struck me as odd, because in Alabama, public educators get fantastic insurance. It's like one of the biggest reasons to stay teaching, in terms of compensation. But this country is really 50 countries held together by rubber bands so I have no idea what's going on in New Mexico.Last edited by Peelee; 2021-07-09 at 10:48 AM.
Cuthalion's art is the prettiest art of all the art. Like my avatar.
Number of times Roland St. Jude has sworn revenge upon me: 2
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2021-07-12, 02:50 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2013
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
SpoilerI mean, the episode Grey Matter is in the first season and it includes Walt getting offered a job (and health insurance) by his old partners. He only turns it down because of his own wounded pride. I wouldn't be surprised if they introduced that plot so early to make it clear that this was never actually about paying for cancer. Doesn't he say in the Pilot "I feel ALIVE" when Jesse asks why he's doing it?
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2021-07-12, 06:10 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Oct 2010
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.
SpoilerOne of the overarching motifs of the story is that Walt's ego drives his every move. He hates that he became a public school teacher instead of a millionaire like his friends, that everyone doesn't recognize his greatness. He can't quit once he starts because he is finally getting what he deserves.
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2021-08-04, 09:45 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2013
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Re: New cancer screening test is accurate enough for rollout.