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Thread: Afterlife

  1. - Top - End - #241
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Voting for Aventine, praise the dice gods.
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-08-16 at 04:27 PM.
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  2. - Top - End - #242
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Voting for Aventine, praise the dice gods.
    Random?
    At this stage in the game?

    Book Wombat.
    Spoiler: Quotes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  3. - Top - End - #243
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Random?
    At this stage in the game?

    Book Wombat.
    Book Wombat is confirmed town. I know my word is the only one for this and I shouldn't be trusted but this is a wasted vote.

  4. - Top - End - #244
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Random?
    At this stage in the game?

    Book Wombat.
    Honestly, feels at least as hard to believe that a wolf would actually do that.

    I think where I'm at at the moment is:

    gac is neutral

    blade is a wolf

    Murska feels like he's coasting. I also did not like the suggestion of going after Emmy. It felt like suggesting killing the former counter-wagon as a safe mislynch to push.

    Caoimhin gave me some sketchy vibes at a couple points, but nothing all that huge. I do get vibes of "trying to look solvey without actually being solvey."

    I don't think I've ever known how to properly read Xihirli (I should try to figure that out one of these days)

    Batcathat, walk me through what you were thinking when you said

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    In addition to her weird first post and her very "Oh, by the way I'm totally Town" second post, didn't Emmy claim very early in the last couple of games? Not doing it this game doesn't mean anything on it's own but it seems worth pointing out.
    "She claimed in a weird way and didn't claim like she usually does" is such a weird thing to post. I can't get inside the headspace you were in here.

    I'm willing to believe Book Wombat, at least for now. gac could totally side with the wolves, but I don't think you make that decision yet. Confirming a townie, but in the process exposing a power role to the wolves? Gives both sides something valuable. That sounds like a neutral move. So I buy what gac is selling.

  5. - Top - End - #245
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    So we have two suspicious people left in the game and both of them are voting for me? I guess I'm clear.
    Quotes:
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamech View Post
    Trusting Murska worked out great!
    Quote Originally Posted by happyturtle View Post
    A Murska without lies is like a day without sunshine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  6. - Top - End - #246
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Voting for Aventine, praise the dice gods.
    So, can you give an explanation for the praise the dice gods comment? I think I get it but I'd rather hear it from you instead of me giving you an out.



    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Book Wombat is confirmed town. I know my word is the only one for this and I shouldn't be trusted but this is a wasted vote.
    Book Wombat is assumed town based on your word. It seems likely that both Town and Wolves had a power to make QTs but he could have just as easily been your actual target last night and you've made some sort of deal with him. Unfortunately, Night 2 can't do anything to prove Book's power.

    Actually, gac, we could believe your word much more if your targets from last night could confirm the QT you set up. If we can account for your actions Night 2, BW is more likely to have the power as claimed.


    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    So we have two suspicious people left in the game and both of them are voting for me? I guess I'm clear.
    Those two were mentioned by gac because gac theoretically doesn't have a QT between them. They're not necessarily most suspicious, gac just wants them dead.



    @Batcathat or Aventine
    I get how Murska's comment about Emmy seemed to be setting up a mislynch, but my biggest hang up on voting Murska is Day 1. His change in vote literally flips the wagons from Snow-4 and Apogee-3 to Snow-3 and Apogee-4. How is this a good move for the Wolf team if Snow is still a possible lynch?



    I should have time for one more post tonight with hopefully more content, but wanted to address stuff/ask questions.




    Votecount:

    Batcathat (2): gac3, Murska
    Murska (2): Batcathat, Aventine
    Aventine (1): Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Xihirli


    Not Voting: CaoimhinTheCape
    No Posts: bladescape

  7. - Top - End - #247
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Hey, people that I made a QT with last night, want to help confirm a townie by telling people who you were?

  8. - Top - End - #248
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    I've got a QT with Xihirli since last night.

    Day 1 vote tally, with fancy colours:

    Aventine: Book Wombat, bladescape
    Snowblaze: Supagoof, Apogee1, Aventine
    rogue_alchemist: Batcathat
    Apogee1: Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Murska, rogue_alchemist, Xihirli, gac3
    No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

    I'd colour BW as orange but apparently they're a townie PR that's confirmed somehow?
    Quotes:
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamech View Post
    Trusting Murska worked out great!
    Quote Originally Posted by happyturtle View Post
    A Murska without lies is like a day without sunshine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  9. - Top - End - #249
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    I don't think I've ever known how to properly read Xihirli (I should try to figure that out one of these days)
    I change every time. Heck, last time I was just a good townie.
    Spoiler: Quotes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  10. - Top - End - #250
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    I've got a QT with Xihirli since last night.

    Day 1 vote tally, with fancy colours:

    Aventine: Book Wombat, bladescape
    Snowblaze: Supagoof, Apogee1, Aventine
    rogue_alchemist: Batcathat
    Apogee1: Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Murska, rogue_alchemist, Xihirli, gac3
    No Vote: EmmyNecromancer

    I'd colour BW as orange but apparently they're a townie PR that's confirmed somehow?
    Sadly BW's target last night died so I'm the only witness. So they are as confirmed as you can trust me.

  11. - Top - End - #251
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Spoiler: Apogee Quotes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    Yo.

    I'm going to vote snowblaze for giving a townread to Cao for something incredibly NAI.
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    I'm pretty sure gac is the medium :p
    Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
    So the two top wagons and someone town reading the two top wagons are voting me.

    Not a wolf driven push at all, Iím sure.

    Iíve been pretty busy this day phase so havenít gotten a chance to do a ton.

    Snow continues to rub me the wrong way.

    I like Aventine. Then again, I normally do.

    Neutrals bore me but they should either be investigated or killed before endgame.

    Rogue I have no opinion on outside of wagonomics.


    Revisiting Apogee's quotes he only talks about gac (as Medium), Snow (confirmed Town), me (tangentially), and Ave (defending). At this point Apogee isn't a guaranteed lynch but has 3 votes compared to Snow's 4 and RA's 3.



    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    I've got a QT with Xihirli since last night.



    I'd colour BW as orange but apparently they're a townie PR that's confirmed somehow?
    OK. So, gac's power on Night 1 and 2 is accounted for.

    Which means, if Book Wombat does have a Quick Topic with gac then it was made by Book. Book is confirmed to be able to create QTs or contact gac somehow.

    We saw the Wolf version of a role like this with Apogee, it would be weird for Wolves to have two versions of that role.


    @Book Wombat Why did you only make a QT with yourself and gac last night? If you were looking to help gac out by connecting more people, it would have made more sense to match gac with someone else and you would pop in to say hi. Would help confirm your story too.

  12. - Top - End - #252
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Night 1 book got me and them. I appreciate this because I'm unsure if book would still be on my list or not if their name wasn't on the QT.

    I advised them not to comment in any other QTs unless needed or I die and they could send messages through me.

    Then I advised targeting Snow because I didn't actually think Snow would die.

    So no QT night 2.

  13. - Top - End - #253
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    That's not confirmation. Sorry, that just isn't. We have no information on how common that power is, particularly with the wolves. "It would be weird if" we have no role information.
    This doesn't clear Book, it's nothing information.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  14. - Top - End - #254
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    @Batcathat or Aventine
    I get how Murska's comment about Emmy seemed to be setting up a mislynch, but my biggest hang up on voting Murska is Day 1. His change in vote literally flips the wagons from Snow-4 and Apogee-3 to Snow-3 and Apogee-4. How is this a good move for the Wolf team if Snow is still a possible lynch?
    Do you really think Snow was a viable lynch at that point? The wagon had stalled out a while before. I'd dropped from it, only to return specifically to try to keep rogue's from getting too far ahead. I never did come back and drop from it again, but would you have bet on that? I don't think the wolves would have considered Snow much of a possible lynch. If you think the apogee lynch is inevitable, or even very likely, it is definitely a good move to get out ahead of things and bus at that point.

    We're talking about someone who said this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    A wolf would definitely take a 50% chance of being full cleared and 50% chance of dying. Just saying.
    Murksa ain't scared of being a little ballsy and taking a calculated risk.

  15. - Top - End - #255
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    So, can you give an explanation for the praise the dice gods comment? I think I get it but I'd rather hear it from you instead of me giving you an out.
    Repeat of my first vote.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    @Book Wombat Why did you only make a QT with yourself and gac last night? If you were looking to help gac out by connecting more people, it would have made more sense to match gac with someone else and you would pop in to say hi. Would help confirm your story too.
    I didn't know whether my power would activate or not if we shared a target and I didn't want to risk it so I only targeted gac3 and myself.
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-08-16 at 09:04 PM.
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  16. - Top - End - #256
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    That's not confirmation. Sorry, that just isn't. We have no information on how common that power is, particularly with the wolves. "It would be weird if" we have no role information.
    This doesn't clear Book, it's nothing information.
    I guess but it's more town evidence than we have for most. Book hasn't asked me for any information beyond giving him a name to target from my list or done anything particularly wolfy. It's as confirmed as we can get right now and would be a waste to target them rather than someone who doesn't have that kind of case for them.

  17. - Top - End - #257
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    Do you really think Snow was a viable lynch at that point? The wagon had stalled out a while before. I'd dropped from it, only to return specifically to try to keep rogue's from getting too far ahead. I never did come back and drop from it again, but would you have bet on that? I don't think the wolves would have considered Snow much of a possible lynch. If you think the apogee lynch is inevitable, or even very likely, it is definitely a good move to get out ahead of things and bus at that point.

    Yes, Snow was a viable wagon. My count was a bit off in my earlier post: RA moved off of Apogee at that point to vote himself (Snow-4 RA-3 Apogee-2). We were also less than two hours away from deadline and simply not posting might not have flipped things. His vote came before Xihirli and gac so it pushed the votes to 3 all (with RA assumed to come back to Apogee).

    That said, I get how it could be used for townie points and he may be the type to do that, with the quote you gave.


    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    That's not confirmation. Sorry, that just isn't. We have no information on how common that power is, particularly with the wolves. "It would be weird if" we have no role information.
    This doesn't clear Book, it's nothing information.


    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I guess but it's more town evidence than we have for most. Book hasn't asked me for any information beyond giving him a name to target from my list or done anything particularly wolfy. It's as confirmed as we can get right now and would be a waste to target them rather than someone who doesn't have that kind of case for them.
    I'm with Xi on this one. You're Neutral so taking your word for it means we're helping with your win con, not necessarily ours. Book isn't necessarily a good lynch but I'm not clearing him right now.


    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I didn't know whether my power would activate or not if we shared a target and I didn't want to risk it so I only targeted gac3 and myself.
    It's just a shame that there's no one alive that can verify it. Without a second person to corroborate it seems like you're just making a connection with one person each night.

  18. - Top - End - #258
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    BatCatHat

    Murska is pretty bloody towny imo.

    The Snow/Apogee flip was VERY close and one person going the other way earlier may have left snow out in the cold.

    I doubt teammates would throw Apogee away like that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Two votes and zero motivation. I kind of suspect that gac (whether or not helping the wolves) has some selfish motivations. Assuming he's honest about his wincon, I'm one of the people he still need to contact but only as long as I'm alive.

    Murska following along without any explanation seems shady, especially in combination with Snow's arguments.
    Using Snow's dying wish may have been the wolf plan? Thanks for letting us know.
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  19. - Top - End - #259
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Yes, Snow was a viable wagon. My count was a bit off in my earlier post: RA moved off of Apogee at that point to vote himself (Snow-4 RA-3 Apogee-2). We were also less than two hours away from deadline and simply not posting might not have flipped things. His vote came before Xihirli and gac so it pushed the votes to 3 all (with RA assumed to come back to Apogee).

    That said, I get how it could be used for townie points and he may be the type to do that, with the quote you gave.




    I'm with Xi on this one. You're Neutral so taking your word for it means we're helping with your win con, not necessarily ours. Book isn't necessarily a good lynch but I'm not clearing him right now.




    It's just a shame that there's no one alive that can verify it. Without a second person to corroborate it seems like you're just making a connection with one person each night.
    I agree. You should not trust me. But it seems like you are questioning not my word or Books word but whether or not this makes them town. So which is more likely, that Book is a town person with the same power as a neutral and a wolf have been confirmed to have and is one of only two confirmed powers in the game? Or that Book has a power that is super similar but slightly different than the confirmed wolf/neutral powers while being slightly different (your claim might be the case)? Or that Book is a wolf (one of 3 or 4 total) with the exact same power as another wolf (as Xi was claiming might be the case)?

    And fine. Don't clear them. Give them another night. Odds are they die tonight. If not, then odds are they can prove their power with a second person tomorrow. Unless we think they are likely to be the final wolf, Town would be far better served to target someone else today.

    But as long as that someone isn't me, I'm fine. I should win tonight. Barring any unforeseen circumstances.

  20. - Top - End - #260
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    The Snow/Apogee flip was VERY close and one person going the other way earlier may have left snow out in the cold.

    I doubt teammates would throw Apogee away like that.
    I don't generally consider 6 to 3 to be "VERY close" personally. Nor do I think there was much reason to think someone else was going to join the Snow wagon when Murska switched. If someone additional had joined the Snow wagon before that point, maybe wolf-Murska stays. But even in that world, if I show up and switch, then Apogee still dies.

    So, what's your take on my reasoning that with nobody new voting for Snow for a while, and my having signaled a willingness/desire to get off the Snow wagon, it was reasonable to think that there was a good chance the Apogee wagon was going to overtake Snow's anyway, thus making bussing a good strategy? There is a difference between "throw[ing] Apogee away" and calculating that he was going to die anyway and acting accordingly.

  21. - Top - End - #261
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    Murska is pretty bloody towny imo.
    Do you have an actual case for that? Voting Apogee is certainly a point in Murska's favor but as has already been pointed out, it's hardly irrefutable evidence and following up a unexplained vote with an unexplained vote doesn't scream trustworthy to me (even if I hadn't been the target of the votes).

    That said, I'm not married to the idea of lynching Murska, but I don't see any other good candidates at the moment.

  22. - Top - End - #262
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Or that Book has a power that is super similar but slightly different than the confirmed wolf/neutral powers while being slightly different (your claim might be the case)? Or that Book is a wolf (one of 3 or 4 total) with the exact same power as another wolf (as Xi was claiming might be the case)?

    And fine. Don't clear them. Give them another night. Odds are they die tonight. If not, then odds are they can prove their power with a second person tomorrow. Unless we think they are likely to be the final wolf, Town would be far better served to target someone else today.
    So yeah, my worry is that Book Wombat is a Wolf version of the Seer. Instead of connecting two people he would spy on someone's personal QT and possibly talk there.

    But you also bring up the idea I was going to suggest this morning: we give Book Wombat another day and overnight he can use his power to connect two people. I don't see Wolves having two people with the same power so that would be enough for me.

    gac will be connecting Ave/BCH tonight (or one of them with someone else). Book Wombat picks one of blade/Cao and one of Xi/Murska to pair up and we see that his power is like the Medium/Wolf power.

    Was gonna give townie points if someone suggested a way to test him so, uhh, I guess I see the Neutral as more townish now?


    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    I don't generally consider 6 to 3 to be "VERY close" personally. Nor do I think there was much reason to think someone else was going to join the Snow wagon when Murska switched. If someone additional had joined the Snow wagon before that point, maybe wolf-Murska stays. But even in that world, if I show up and switch, then Apogee still dies.

    So, what's your take on my reasoning that with nobody new voting for Snow for a while, and my having signaled a willingness/desire to get off the Snow wagon, it was reasonable to think that there was a good chance the Apogee wagon was going to overtake Snow's anyway, thus making bussing a good strategy? There is a difference between "throw[ing] Apogee away" and calculating that he was going to die anyway and acting accordingly.
    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    RA moved off of Apogee at that point to vote himself (Snow-4 RA-3 Apogee-2). We were also less than two hours away from deadline and simply not posting might not have flipped things. His vote came before Xihirli and gac so it pushed the votes to 3 all (with RA assumed to come back to Apogee).
    Let's assume Wolf!Murska:

    Xirili announced plans to read over the thread and vote.
    RA was happy to fall on his own sword due to being busy.
    Snow and I were already on Apogee.
    gac, as Neutral, shouldn't be relied on as a vote for anyone in particular.


    You're saying that with less than 2 hours in the day Wolf!Murska decides to leave the leading wagon on a Townie? RA only switches his vote because Murska makes Apogee a viable lynch.

    Without Murska's vote, we have Xi move to Apogee and RA moves back soon afterward. That's 4 v 4 with an hour and a half left in the day. There's no reason to assume gac will show up to move votes, leaving us with a tie at the end of the day. 50/50 shot that a Wolf power role survives.


    At 4 votes, there didn't need to be anyone additional voting for Snow - they just needed those four not to move.








    Votecount:

    Batcathat (3): gac3, Murska, bladescape
    Murska (2): Batcathat, Aventine
    Aventine (1): Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Xihirli


    Not Voting: CaoimhinTheCape

  23. - Top - End - #263
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    Default Re: Afterlife

    For the two questioning just read Cao's explanation. It basically summerises why I'm not concerned by Murska.

    Tired rn.
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  24. - Top - End - #264
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    GreenSorcererElf

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Let's assume Wolf!Murska:

    Xirili announced plans to read over the thread and vote.
    RA was happy to fall on his own sword due to being busy.
    Snow and I were already on Apogee.
    gac, as Neutral, shouldn't be relied on as a vote for anyone in particular.


    You're saying that with less than 2 hours in the day Wolf!Murska decides to leave the leading wagon on a Townie? RA only switches his vote because Murska makes Apogee a viable lynch.

    Without Murska's vote, we have Xi move to Apogee and RA moves back soon afterward. That's 4 v 4 with an hour and a half left in the day. There's no reason to assume gac will show up to move votes, leaving us with a tie at the end of the day. 50/50 shot that a Wolf power role survives.


    At 4 votes, there didn't need to be anyone additional voting for Snow - they just needed those four not to move.
    Xi voted for Apogee after Murska did. At the point when Murska switches, he doesn't/can't know that Xi is going to end up on Apogee, nor that I am not going to show up and switch off Snow now that there is a viable non-rogue alternative. You keep citing how little time there was, but so what? How does that help your case? It would be one thing if you were arguing that since there wasn't enough time left, Murksa could have been expecting no other changes to happen after his. I would honestly disagree with that, but it would be an argument that comes from "there wasn't much time left." Instead you kinda just repeat it without it really meaning anything. And worse, your argument relies on Murska expecting a certain series of actions to happen. And exactly that sequence of events. It almost looks like you are arguing that that is reasonable due to the low amount of time remaining. But in that case: why? How? Why is it reasonable to say "there is enough time for these specific things to happen, but not enough for anything else to happen"?

    Your argument relies on Murska assuming that Xi and rogue will switch to Apogee and me and gac won't. How is that anywhere near a reasonable position to be thinking this through from? It's one thing to look at that situation as one case among many, but building your entire argument on that specific possible future? Do you really think Murska would have made his decision based entirely on that specific sequence of events happening?

    Under your contrived assumptions regarding what Murska is assuming will happen, he has two choices. Stay on Snow: 50/50 shot that a wolf dies (according to your questionable calculations). But Murska is on the mislynch wagon. If Apogee is the lynchee, or dies later, Murska is suspect. (Note also that the push on Emmy suggests he is thinking in terms of lynching former counterwagons for the info). If I show up and switch now that there is a viable non-rogue alternative to Snow, then Apogee dies anyway and Murska's on the wrong wagon. If anyone else not already either on Apogee's wagon or assumed to end up there under the contrived scenario show up and joins it, then Apogee dies anyway and Murska's on the wrong wagon. Option two is switch: at which point yes, if anyone else joins the Apogee wagon (and it was reasonable to think that was likely), then Apogee dies. But Murska is a key vote that made that happen. It is entirely reasonable to assume that he's going to get people making the argument you and blade are making.

    Again, I want to point out that Murska said a wolf would take a coinflip between dying and being (incorrectly) cleared. He's not timid. He's not someone who is going to shy away from the ballsy move. And looking at that last paragraph, switching was the smart move. Even under your contrived scenario, there is a 50/50 shot of Apogee dying. Even if he survives, he is a prime target for someone to suggest lynching him to get info on the wagons. I don't think everyone is willing to make the move there, but I can guarantee that Murska is not afraid of making a move like that.

  25. - Top - End - #265
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    CaoimhinTheCape's Avatar

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Alright, I don't want to drag this out too much. I guess I didn't explain it right, so I'll try to explain myself better. We'll set aside the time factor for now, though I would still contend that it makes a difference. At the point Murska votes, this was the count:

    Apogee1 (2):CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze
    Snowblaze (4):Aventine, Murska, Apogee1, Supagoof
    Aventine (2): bladescape, Bookwombat
    rogue_alchemist (3):Batcathat, gac3, rogue_alchemist
    No Lynch (1): Xihirli
    As the vote stands, Snowblaze is in the lead to being lynched and has suggested setting up a tie between herself and RA. RA votes himself to give this a chance of happening. The argument for voting Apogee is three people saying "well, he hasn't said much." Xihirli has announced that she will look at the game and put down a vote.

    Point 1 Apogee wagon is not inevitable, Snowblaze is still a viable wagon before the Murska vote.

    RA, myself, Snow, and Xi are the only players posting around then. RA wants to make something happen but is willing to vote himself. Wolf!Murska is online but hasn't posted yet.

    Point 2 Murska can hedge his bets and wait to vote until Apogee (at that point with only 2 votes) becomes a viable wagon.

    Whether or not Murska is the type to hedge bets vs make a risky play, I don't know. Jumping in to make this vote, however, makes Apogee much more likely to be lynched, tying everyone at 3. RA has also announced he would be around to change his vote if needed.

    Point 3 Murska's vote essentially puts Apogee in the lead, when RA can be expected to move back to Apogee.


    Those are my thoughts about how the wagons transpired. We're talking around the same point of "Murska can't know what's going to happen" but using it differently. You're saying he can't know that Snow is a viable wagon. I'm saying he can't know that Apogee is a viable wagon.

    As for the time argument, my thoughts are: "Given enough time to discuss, more votes on Apogee are likely." In my view, since there was only 2 hours left and four people (Snow, Cao, RA, Xi) online, it seems likely Apogee will not get more than 4 votes. This is enough to tie with Snow if Murska stays.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    Under your contrived assumptions regarding what Murska is assuming will happen, he has two choices. Stay on Snow: 50/50 shot that a wolf dies (according to your questionable calculations).
    The 50/50 number comes from the assumption that those online (Snow, Cao, RA, Xi) all vote Apogee. Two of us are already voting, RA says he'll come back and vote so Xi is the only real Wild Card.

    Wolf!Murska has a third choice. Wait until someone else votes Apogee before joining himself.

    Quote Originally Posted by Aventine View Post
    If I show up and switch now that there is a viable non-rogue alternative to Snow, then Apogee dies anyway and Murska's on the wrong wagon. If anyone else not already either on Apogee's wagon or assumed to end up there under the contrived scenario show up and joins it, then Apogee dies anyway and Murska's on the wrong wagon. Option two is switch: at which point yes, if anyone else joins the Apogee wagon (and it was reasonable to think that was likely), then Apogee dies. But Murska is a key vote that made that happen. It is entirely reasonable to assume that he's going to get people making the argument you and blade are making.
    Wolf!Murska is online and if you (or someone else) logs on to vote Apogee then Wolf!Murska pops in and joins too. It's less town cred (obviously) but enough to get through a day.

    You're also forgetting that Wolves should desperately want Apogee alive at this point. Apogee's power is to connect people through QTs and gac is out as the Medium. If Apogee lives even one night, that's an open invitation to connect with the Neutral and get gac on the side of the Wolves.


    tl;dr In my mind, Wolf!Murska waits to sacrifice a Wolf power role until absolutely necessary. Wolf!Murska stays online but doesn't say anything until/unless someone else shows up.


    Really, your argument about Wolves joining the Apogee wagon for towncred makes more sense for Xihirli since she only voted Apogee after it was the leading wagon (4 v 3 v 2).

  26. - Top - End - #266
    Troll in the Playground
     
    Murska's Avatar

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    However, if I were a committed wolf making a big gambit and intending to pull the game home with it, I would certainly not be coasting during the following days, content to pay little attention and not steer the boat.

    I can't be both an evil mastermind who's actively hoodwinking the entire game and a lazy goon unwilling to put in effort to get townies lynched.
    Quotes:
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamech View Post
    Trusting Murska worked out great!
    Quote Originally Posted by happyturtle View Post
    A Murska without lies is like a day without sunshine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  27. - Top - End - #267
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    CaoimhinTheCape's Avatar

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Actually, Xihirli, how's it going with your vote on a person who can possibly be verified by a night ability? Your vote on Apogee did only come once he was going to be lynched.




    Votecount:

    Batcathat (3): gac3, Murska, bladescape
    Murska (2): Batcathat, Aventine
    Aventine (1): Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Xihirli
    Xihirli (1): CaoimhinTheCape
    Last edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-08-18 at 12:44 PM.

  28. - Top - End - #268
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    I don't think I have anything to add to the discussion about Murska's Apogee vote that hasn't already been said. There's certainly an interpretation where Murska is town, but it's not some complete guarantee for his innocence like blade seems to think.

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    However, if I were a committed wolf making a big gambit and intending to pull the game home with it, I would certainly not be coasting during the following days, content to pay little attention and not steer the boat.
    I don't see why you couldn't do a clever/ballsy move and then hang back, whether for tactical reasons (if that's what you did, it seems to have worked quite well) or just because you're busy.

    Anyway, if you have some actual suspicions against me and didn't just jump at gac's vote, would you care to share them?

  29. - Top - End - #269
    Troll in the Playground
     
    Murska's Avatar

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    You voted for rogue alchemist on the first day, instead of anyone who might be a wolf.
    Quotes:
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamech View Post
    Trusting Murska worked out great!
    Quote Originally Posted by happyturtle View Post
    A Murska without lies is like a day without sunshine.
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I say we completely leave our fate in the hands of the trustworthy Murska and continue in complete safety.

  30. - Top - End - #270
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Afterlife

    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    You voted for rogue alchemist on the first day, instead of anyone who might be a wolf.
    Yeah, and instead of Snow or someone else who had an actual chance to get lynched. I missed the latter half of that day (I thought that I would have time to post before EoD and that nothing much was going to change anyway, obviously I was sorely mistaken on both counts ).

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