A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #511
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Her. And I don't know about anyone else but I guess I did forget that you said this. Makes me feel even better about town reading you, at least.
    Corrected.

    I don't blame you for forgetting. It happened a lot at this time.
    But I am annoyed about Mr Popo not saying anything. He puts so much energy into the game, I feel like he should have noticed.
    And perhaps a bit annoyed at myself, since I obviously didn't make my case heard.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  2. - Top - End - #512
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Corrected.

    I don't blame you for forgetting. It happened a lot at this time.
    But I am annoyed about Mr Popo not saying anything. He puts so much energy into the game, I feel like he should have noticed.
    And perhaps a bit annoyed at myself, since I obviously didn't make my case heard.
    Keep in mind I have had 72 hours where I got 8 total hours of sleep in between, I work and travel 10 hours a day, I watch my infant or my son for another 6 hours a day.

    I am usually dead this late into a game, so I did not anticipate I would still be where I would normally be at the START of a day 2 solving effort, after day 3 has ended and night began.

    But dividing my remaining awake minutes between diving old games, reading up on current posts, skimming the big walls, and doing my extensively time consuming processes means my IQ points will be cut in half already, and then in half again when I am drunk-levels of tired. And I am putting as many or more hours into a game elsewhere simultaneously.

    So if you're expecting stellar reading comprehension right now, you're expecting too much.

    Just note, with my ability to think cut into 1/4 and with a LOT of unfinished processes, I have 2 dead wolves and 1 dead townie under my name, and a lot of folks called townie with strong reasons that can't be overturned.

    Eventually everyone who isnt lock town or lock scum gotta be under the microscope, completely finished process or not.

    Worry not, I am voicing a feeling, I won't call for death without demonstrating where I have fully convinced myself it is true. And I have already tried to town read you twice, once for starters, and once again after becoming concerned.

    My goal is to nail the town read on every townie. Even if I suspect there, even if I have evidence.

    My goal is to find every townie, and the wolves are every name that is not those names, even if they did literally nothing wolfy, but nothing particularly clearing either.

    Sometimes I dont have a case someone is a wolf.

    And in those times, I have a case 5 other people are NOT a wolf. Which is what I got now.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-18 at 05:22 AM.

  3. - Top - End - #513
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Just note, with my ability to think cut into 1/4 and with a LOT of unfinished processes, I have 2 dead wolves and 1 dead townie under my name, and a lot of folks called townie with strong reasons that can't be overturned.
    I could say exactly the same about me. The difference between us is, I am much better at being honest about my actual influence.

    I give you the Emmy vote. You called her out fast and made a strong point about the activity. This lynch might not have happened without you.
    But Xi? You had her pegged as town the whole time. You even asked the wolves to avoid killing her. Only after Xi was caught in a lie, with no good excuses left you hard reversed. This lynch is not your work. This lynch is despite your work.

    Now, I didn't catch Emmy and only joined the wagon when it was inevitable. But I don't want to take credits for this lynch. It was handled to me on a silver plate.
    But Xi? I was unwilling to vote her d1. She is entertaining to have in the game and d1 lynch is wrong more often than right. D2, she lost this protection. But she was read as town by multiple players and so I didn't look too closely. When I was prompted to look there, I noticed there was no good concrete content to read her as town. I even pointed this out for everyone to see. I was mostly ignored. (This seems to happen a lot, I'm afraid). I am not confident enough to lead the charge unless I have very good reasons to be confident. So I don't try hard to find a wolf behind Xi, while most players read her as town.
    But when there was a good reason, I immediately said "Xi is lying". Only to be ignored and robbed of my achievement. That's not fair!

    I am not good at reading people. I am good at mechanics, the part of the game you have the least interest on.
    Spoiler: Examples
    Show

    I fought against Xi in day 2 of PJ. I saw the mech explanation for Wolf Xi. I wasn't the first to notice, but I think I was the most vocal player to push there. I didn't get support. So I finally, before going to bed, give some alternative explanation with benefits of doubt and change my vote to the other target of the day. Next time I see the game, the wagons moved and Xi flipped wolf, after a literal coin flip. To add to this insult? The other possible target was snow, another wolf and outed by fake claiming a role someone else had. Not enough insult? The wolves noticed what I was doing, which allowed them to use me to kill for them n2.
    Day 3, I come out at the start of day to say we should kill the vig, without claiming. I knew town would need time to hunt for real wolves instead of going for the easy and wrong target that was me. In the middle of the day, I claim vig. I know the wolves know. Remaining hidden is not going to help town. I don't want to allow the wolves to use me more than strictly necessary. The only reason I lived to see the end of PJ (where I killed myself to hand a win out to a helpful neutral) was AV, back from the dead, mech cleared townie and literally the best player to coordinate the town network.

    Or how about Crazy Idea? I was the one who noticed we could get proof of the elimination of the cult by flipping the outed Cultist instead of the outed Serial killer.
    I was the one to point out blocking the guy who claimed Jack and was scried Mafia would be necessary to ensure he dies and could give us a good guess on the question "how big is this team".
    At the same time, as snow pointed out, I reacted poor to her calling me out as possible scum. I am not good at actively deceiving people.

    Or just take a look at the recruitment threads. I am there, asking about the rules and the mech all the time. Because, mech is logical. People are not. And since I ask those questions before alignment is rolled, you can't honestly accuse me of trying to further some kind of scheme.


    Since I am better at mech, that's where I put my mind. I try to understand motivations as well, but I am worse at this part. When in doubt, I look at other players and let them influence my decisions.
    If I ever get out and say "This guy is a wolf, I am certain!" without presenting my mech evidence? I am a wolf. Even if I am right about this, I will have additional info and be more likely to be a badguy. And before you try to use this and d1: I was comfortable sitting on Jeen. Not certain.


    And to make one thing clear: this is not meant to accuse anybody. It's meant to explain why I am annoyed about some things, like the way you want to share credits for the Xi lynch with Snow. The Xi lynch rightfully belongs to me. I called her out first. I wouldn't have allowed for it to be ignored forever.

    I don't think you do this with ill intend. It's more likely to be a difference in approach and character. But you do it. And I am annoyed.
    Honest criticism is something I can accept. Honest and deserved compliments as well. But robbing my accomplishments? That's where I draw the line.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  4. - Top - End - #514
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Hi Rogan. Sorry for the whole "my day two sucked" thing contributing to Xihirli being ignored.

    I do think pointing out Xihirli's lie is likely to be towny. Though no-one said towncred is a finite resource. You get some, I get some, AV gets some. I also think your frustration at not being given it and being POEd is towny.

    And I can definitely see why you're frustrated. When you think you should be obvious town and people are still suspecting you, it can be pretty tough to deal with. (See: me, early day two)

    I think you're town. I'm a lot less confident in that than I am in a lot of my other townreads, but there's no way I'm voting for you unless the game's still going by the time we've flipped BCH and Supagoof. Which I'm fairly sure it won't be.

    I'll definitely make more of an effort to pay attention to your reads and take them into account in future.

    (Side note: I wasn't implying your reaction to pressure on Craziest Idea was poor. Just that I felt like I had an idea what it looked like. You were a very competent wolf. Actually, I'm going to go reread Craziest Idea and make sure there aren't the same patterns here.)
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  5. - Top - End - #515
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Hi Rogan. Sorry for the whole "my day two sucked" thing contributing to Xihirli being ignored.

    I do think pointing out Xihirli's lie is likely to be towny. Though no-one said towncred is a finite resource. You get some, I get some, AV gets some. I also think your frustration at not being given it and being POEd is towny.

    And I can definitely see why you're frustrated. When you think you should be obvious town and people are still suspecting you, it can be pretty tough to deal with. (See: me, early day two)

    I think you're town. I'm a lot less confident in that than I am in a lot of my other townreads, but there's no way I'm voting for you unless the game's still going by the time we've flipped BCH and Supagoof. Which I'm fairly sure it won't be.

    I'll definitely make more of an effort to pay attention to your reads and take them into account in future.

    (Side note: I wasn't implying your reaction to pressure on Craziest Idea was poor. Just that I felt like I had an idea what it looked like. You were a very competent wolf. Actually, I'm going to go reread Craziest Idea and make sure there aren't the same patterns here.)
    Hello Snow. I think we can share credit and blame. I could have been a bit more insisting, you could have been a bit more attentive.

    And if you feel like it after the game, I'd be glad to discuss the previous games in more detail, but I don't want to distract from this game too much. If you have a specific question and you feel like you need to ask it to understand this match better, it's okay to ask. If you are just curious, let's keep this out of this match.

    But thank you for the compliment. I am usually very self-critical, so an honest assessment of my capabilities is appreciated.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  6. - Top - End - #516
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I could say exactly the same about me. The difference between us is, I am much better at being honest about my actual influence.

    I give you the Emmy vote. You called her out fast and made a strong point about the activity. This lynch might not have happened without you.
    But Xi? You had her pegged as town the whole time. You even asked the wolves to avoid killing her. Only after Xi was caught in a lie, with no good excuses left you hard reversed. This lynch is not your work. This lynch is despite your work.
    Ineffective argument: I know I am town and therefore no matter what you say, inconsistency is not something you can ever persuade me with.

    Inconsistency is the hobgoblin of wolfy minds, I said that already this game, and it is in my guide.

    I bagged dozens upon dozens of wolves attacking townies for being inconsistent.

    Meaning, suggesting I have to treat two player slots as equal for doing similar actions.

    Friendo, I love ya as a player, and when this game is over, whether you hate me or love me back is up to you.

    But I can absolutely never, ever, ever as a townie treat you as identical to me.

    You can see the stuff I am doing is getting me town read, and you can copy that as a wolf.

    I know for a fact I am town and that wolves exist outside of my own body.

    If they do EXACTLY the same things I do all game, if the town read Xi, if they town read the inactives, if they town read BatCatHat, if they accuse the same villagers I did literally all game long, I am still not the same player slot as they are.

    And one or both of us could be a wolf to anyone else this game, but you're directing those comments at me.

    Those comments are meant for the audience, not for me.

    You know for a fact that I can and indeed should suspect you for making the same wrong guesses I did, and making a correct guess on a wolf.

    None of that is remotely lock clearing. I have yet to argue I am lock clear and I told everyone to put me directly at the bottom of their suspects list so I can devour everyone else who drops to the bottom, and never put me in their town core until the game is over and all the wolves are dead.

    In game:
    Down here, in the fighting pit with all the other suspects, I am a bad, bloodthirsty, dangerous man and if you call me odd, strange, weird, interesting, off, inconsistent, or vote me, or discredit me, or complain that your bussing strategy is not working, I will drop my case work against everyone else and go directly for you next and not stop until one or both of us is dead.

    Out of game:
    If you're a townie, I am sorry bro, but all the other townies took my suspecting them like a champ. You gotta do the same or you're flinching.


    That's not fair!
    Wolves often complain that villagers are not being fair.

    Xihirli claimed the claim strategy Snow proposed was unsporting.

    I in fact suggested that you trying to kill Vecna every game was unfair.

    Fairness is not part of this game. I can accuse you for zero reasons, like you did to Vecna on day one.

    And that, ironically, is fair.

    You are getting exactly the level of fairness you gave to others.

    And inconsistency is the hobgoblin of wolfy minds.

    I am not you, and I know I am town. That is sufficient to suspect you.

    I technically need zero other reasons in a guessing game, but page 1 is my bigggggggg reason.


    But robbing my accomplishments? That's where I draw the line.
    You can have the accomplishment.

    You will not be town read for it.

    - - - Updated - - -


    This is Page 1 of an unfinished multi iso.

    Checking Bat and Rogan and Xihilrli together, to determine which of Bat or Rogan I think goes next due to their interactions with everyone else, and also, their interactions with Xihirli.


    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Now I want to rewatch A Knight's Tale. I love that movie.

    Anyway, I think getting Snowblaze killed is just my thing now. Might as well own it.
    On the theory that Mafia will be hitting townies looking to provoke claims, Bat and Snow should be unaligned here.

    As a reminder, that means specifically not mafia/mafia or "wolf/wolf" as I prefer to say. They can in theory both be town, despite being on the low end of my reads list.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    It was in this little park that I used to categorize fossils and read the rings of slaughtered tree trunks. I wrote a research paper once that dedicated thirty pages purely to logging birds. I’ve never been happier to forget the words double-crested cormorant.
    They used to tell us when we spent our summers here that we could canoe or kayak, whatever we liked. But we couldn’t swim. No, never swim. That was too dangerous, we had to be weary of the water. Even the beach had signs that read “DANGER” for fear the residue from inside you still swirled into the algae-flooded waters, even after all those years. They must have been right, though. To find any signs of life we had to take the river where it met the ocean. There, the muck thinned into salted clouds of green that you still couldn’t quite see through, but somehow seemed more inviting.
    We were children, though. And all the precautions made us restless.


    So it's now occurred to me that I was really into the idea of a love letter themed game not knowing that love letter is like... a show name or something. I just thought it was letters and I think I'm in a different setting than everyone else.

    Eh, in for a penny.

    Weighing in on the "reveal town roles" plan: This will always just feel unsporting to me. It's such an obvious move that a lot of games inspired by preexisting stories just don't have a mechanical way to prevent. Heck, I left Seto Kaiba out of Yu-Gi-Oh! purely to subvert the idea "she'd never leave THIS character out"
    Spoiler
    Show
    also the section of the story I was adapting had nothing to do with that windbag
    but a lot of games like this just can't have that option built in. This just feels like a move we should ladies' agreement out of.
    Now, one wolf can always go "I don't endorse trust or like this plan, being proposed by my fellow wolf" for distancing. That is absolutely trivial. However, I can't reach such a conclusion yet. I can't say this is unpaired with Snow just yet, but much later on, oh yes it would seem so.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    This makes me lean slightly towards Xi being Town. When we were wolves together last game, she pushed a lot for moves that'd make an interesting challenge rather than playing it safe, so protesting a plan for being unsporting in favor of Town seems more towny than wolfy coming from Xi. Of course, she might be counting on someone pointing that out, so who knows for sure?
    This looks pairing with Xihirli, because it is so weak, so if and when Xi flips later, it wasn't a "strong" town lean.

    Slight town leans I don't trust too much. It reeks of wanting to leave your options open.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Spoiler: Quotes & Reactions
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    Be careful what you say there! I might think you are a gambler, even willing to gamble with lives at stake! This certainly is no honorable behaviour. And when there is no honor, there might be no loyality as well.



    The idea is not bad, but it also brings some risks. You pointed some of them out (and I would be interested in your math for the Handmaidens, but this can wait until after the game) and gave your assessment about them. So, I will claim that I have no role involved and no major objections to your analysis. Minor negative points for the "Trust me" part of your argument. But it's propably too obvious for a wolf. I reserve the right to reasses my stance toward you if the princess or countesse gets ambushed tonight.



    Hard disagree here. Massclaiming would be a huge disadvantage! Since the Handmaidens are occupied protecting the Princess and Countesse, a mass claim would allow the wolves to snipe the more useful roles. Like the Handmaidens, which we need for the plan to work.
    (And, in my interpretation of the game the countesse is still female, its just someone you are allied with. Notice the OP, where two persons were arrested, the evil queen and our dear narrator. (A big thank you for your work!))



    Again, mixed feelings, Snow. On the one hand, you are opposed to a mass claim. On the other hand... I don't like this!
    But I like Snows songs as well, so another reason to avoid going after her.



    I think you are correct about the first part (King, Prince).
    You are however wrong about the second part (Baron). Snow even pointed this out in her plan. The baron can't connect anybody to this core. The princess can't be targeted after claiming. The Countess will be blocked by the handmaidens. They protect against the kill, but also prevent most other powers.
    If the wolves get the countess night 1, will you change your oppinion about Snow?



    Hard agree here. Xi is on my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game.



    Dear Prince Roland
    I bring you terrible news! The Queen has tried to assassinate the Princess. But - praise the gods - the Princess was not hurt and the Queen was arrested. She is avaiting trial in the royal dungon. However, the danger is not over yet. She still has some allies hidden in the castle. Currently, we are locked in here. I hope, at least my letter will reach you, so you can learn of the events from a trusted source.
    The Princess has gone into hiding, however there is wisper she might reveal herself soon and place herself under the protection of the Countess and her trusted Handmaidens. One of the other guests of the palace, Mr Popo, claims to be the Count. Nobody objected to this till now, and I tend to believe him. Such a lie would be too easy to proove wrong.
    Personaly, I suspect AvatarVecna but I have to admit, I never liked her very much. Some time ago, I even dreamed of killing her with lightning, but she was innocent that night. Strange dream, realy, but I disgress. Pardon, Mylord.
    I also don't like this stranger named BookWombat. A gambler, for sure. Maybe I can use my contacts at the servants to gain some more inforamtion about him tonight.

    Yours truely,
    Ambassador Rogan
    On the theory that Mafia will be hitting townies looking to provoke claims, Rogan and AV are absolutely unaligned here. That one is trivial. And also, Rogan is interested in Book Wombat, and can have been the wolf who found out Book Wombat's naughty secret and killed him N2 based on stuff learned N1.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Your math is fine, which I realized some minutes after I made the post. At first, I had tried to take all roles into account, which made the calculation a bit more complex. Sometimes, you miss the forest since you see so many trees.

    Well, it's not RNG random. AV

    - is allways a good day 1 target
    - had one vote already

    Currently, there are 4 players I would not vote for.
    [Rogan, Snow, Mr Popo, Xi]
    And I didn't want to start a new wagon without a good reason. (Which I currently don't have). So I picked someone with one vote, who I would not mind getting eliminated. And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 ammuses me
    This is definitely pairing with Xihirli.

    And absolutely unpairing with Vecna.

    And reads like a wolf talking to a townie Snowblaze, but I can't determine that, it can be a dances with wolves moment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Of course the reasons are thin. It's day 1 and, at the time of my vote, page 1. There simply is not much to go by, so I can take an option which I amuses me. It's not like I can't change my vote again, if someone pops up who is more suspicous.
    And, as you made sure to point out, there is no reason NOT to vote for AV at the moment.

    About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.
    Kind of a quickly defensive reaction to me pointing out the reasons for him voting Vecna were not quite sporting, old chap.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Is this a counterclaim?

    Or just this joke?
    Rolefishing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Thanks for the answer. And while I obviously CAN do the conversion myself, I certainly would not mind if you would include the CEST. Especialy if someone else would profit from this as well.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay, I want to include BatCatHat in my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game. Having someone with similar timezones can be useful.
    This post is pocketing or pairing with BatCatHat. That is no reason to put someone on a do not remove list at all, that is an excuse.

    Like, I didn't want to remove Xihirli because their posts amused me, but the instant I saw anything at all condemning, I yeeted that one straight into the sun.

    Not liking removing a certain player is not the same as not wanting to murder the living popo out of all wolves, no matter who they are.

    In the event of 4 mafiosi I would wager heavily these are the last 2 mafiosi right here already, just from page 1.

    Probably town needs to destroy BatCatHat and Rogan in any order, and I would start with Rogan here, because as I said, BatCatHat isn't going anywhere, and is already straight up outed.

    Rogan is the only one where you risk a lot of Popo funbucks when it is wrong. So I am wagering half of my remaining Popo funbucks that I gained from hitting 2 wolves on accusing Rogan.

    If that is wrong, I reserve the remainder of my winnings for one last accusation, which Gac3 can reveal after I die tonight, and have that accusation be coming from proven town, as an extra bonus.

    That's page 1.

    It took me 30 minutes for this, and I have to go to work.

    Good night.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-18 at 11:38 AM.

  7. - Top - End - #517
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    This looks pairing with Xihirli, because it is so weak, so if and when Xi flips later, it wasn't a "strong" town lean.

    Slight town leans I don't trust too much. It reeks of wanting to leave your options open.
    Yes, clearly I should have alternated between confidently accusing everyone and confidently defending everyone instead. Y'know, like the pros.

  8. - Top - End - #518
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Checking in at work, I literally brought my laptop so I can double check this all still before Night ends and I die when the theory is correct.

    I still want to find a way to disprove the theory.

    Even though Rogan just did the most massive spike in wolfiness it is possible to have.

    1) "Not fair". This is a game where people vote for other people because it's funny to yeet them Day One every game. And now we see why a wolf might have wanted AVecna gone from the game, because THEY are a threat to wolves and a massive one. Is that fair of me to point out?

    When you vote for people for the topmost of unfair reasons and then complain to me about being fair, that gets yeeted directly into the sun, absolutely zero Popo funbucks remain. You are BANKRUPT now.

    2) Discrediting me. You can try, my friend. And if you do, I will insist that upon my death, you die next, because I always flip town, and town always survives the game when you and Bat are wolves.

    That's not even a hard choice. We thunderdome tomorrow, to the death, if I am alive to do so.

    I will never not vote you anymore. That's gone, unless I specifically find stuff that locks you town now.

    I will do my diligence and look. I will attempt to be fair, a fair juror, to someone who was blatantly unfair to others.

    3) Asking me to treat his slot and my slot the same when we can be unaligned and are not the same slot, period.

    That is always a wolfy argument. A townie RARELY makes that argument, and when they do, they back off when I argue this exact argument back.

    It's much like treating the inactives the same. No, I do not have to do that, when there are reasons why they are not the same, and frankly, even if there were NO reason, and both were flat out inactive, if I choose one arbitrarily, and someone else accuses the other arbitrarily, and they insist I have to vote for THAT inactive instead of mine, that's wolfy to me.

    I once chose an inactive over a different one merely because that inactive had yet to get a single vote but the other inactive did, which means, it was more likely that the other inactive would eventually potentially be unpaired with the active player voting them.

    Purely for that reason and LITERALLY NO OTHER REASON, and this exact example is cited in my guide and you can link to the game and read it yourself, I voted for a zero posting wolf on Day One and I yeeted that guy straight to heck when town finally got around to pressuring him and he was forced to fake claim cop.

    I voted him 3 straight days because no one else wanted to do so, and I found that wolfy for an inactive.

    It was the single most alignment indicative thing about them.

    Which is why I decided to go straight at Emmy D2 this game. After I argued that the inactives should be left alone, everyone was cool with it.

    A bit too cool, if both were town.

    Two inactives are not the same slot, not the same person, and DO NOT have to be the same alignment.

    One player who town reads Xi, and Bat, and the inactives, and then reverses, is NOT the same player slot as someone else who does the same thing and was quicker on the draw with removing Xi from their town list. Under external pressure, if they were a wolf. External pressure I and Vecna and others created by being townie and finding each other town.

    We are not the same player. We are probably never the same alignment. I do not have to treat you as identical to me, and why should I?

    That argument makes zero sense for a townie to argue when directed at me.

    But if a wolf makes that argument, phrased to me, but intended for the wider audience, that is theater.

    It is attempting to manipulate opinions.

    It is wolfy self-focus. And inconsistency and hypocrisy arguments leveled against me always put you directly in my line of fire and I will not relent anymore, unless I personally find a defense for you against my own argument, or someone else I trust does so, and their evidence is staggering to me.

    These are not ad hoc justifications for wolf reading you. Because I've been compiling my history for reference for my guide, I can pull at least 6 games at your request for you to see me dunking wolves for the hypocrisy and inconsistency angle.

    Without breaking a sweat, I can find at least 6 examples. Just like I can find examples in literally every game for "weird, odd, interesting, strange, off" and "unfair".

    When your reaction to 2 dead wolves, one of which you can claim a part of, but not getting townread for it, the top thing on your mind is that you're not being town read, as opposed to where the wolves are who are not you?

    That's supremely wolfy.

    4) Wolfy self focus.

    Not "who cares what popo says. I know for a fact he is wrong, and because I know I am town, I can find the remaining wolves better than he can while he tunnels me, AND I can dunk them because I will probably be alive tomorrow, and there's not a thing popo can do about it, AND when I flip town if he does dunk me, guess what, people will listen to my advice and my case and dunk my wolves, and town will win despite Popo attempting to throw."

    That's how a townie thinks.

    That's why when I go hard against every other townie this game, they have not given a single piece of popo.

    They don't care, because all it does is discredit me when I am wrong, and they have wolves to find.

    Wolves care, because when they flip, they are doomed and it gives more correct info to town.

    You were doing what you wanted on day one page 1. Day one page one, you put Xi and Bat in your town, and they should be the wolf team of 3 outside of Emmy.

    So when there's a wolf team of 4, if it's down to me and you as suspects?

    I always dunk you, because I know I am town.

    Your bussing has no effect on me. Hypocrisy, unfairness, appeal to emotion, none of it ever reaches me.

    I am a black void where wolfy arguments go to die.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Yes, clearly I should have alternated between confidently accusing everyone and confidently defending everyone instead. Y'know, like the pros.
    Haters gonna hate.

    Let me know how this approach works out for you when you flip wolf or Rogan does or both.

    We will chat postgame and discuss if it was a good move.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mr. Popo
    AvatarVecna
    gac3
    Libro

    Snowblaze
    Supagoof


    BatCatHat
    Rogan


    That's my legacy reads when I die.

    And who I am voting tomorrow when I am alive.

    Everyone else who is town, feel free to weigh in.

    I am sure Snowblaze will object strongly to not dying instead.

    I am sure Goof will object strongly to not being wolf read.

    I am sure Libro will care one way or the other.

    I am sure Vecna is a goat and will back me on this.

    And I am sure gac3 is pretty much never a wolf, so it don't matter.

  9. - Top - End - #519
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Haters gonna hate.

    Let me know how this approach works out for you when you flip wolf or Rogan does or both.

    We will chat postgame and discuss if it was a good move.
    Oh, I don't doubt your approach works better. Whichever side wins, whichever one you belong to, it's pretty clear your method worked better to drive the discussion and push your narrative. I just found it funny. I've yet to see if you quite live up to your own hype, but you certainly liven up the games, I'll give you that.

    On a more serious note, I don't love the fact that (assuming you get the people with you) the next two lynches looks like it'll be me and the guy whose been, if not my strongest town read, than probably at least my most consistent one. I think you might being over analyzing him snapping a little over feeling he didn't get the credit he deserved.

  10. - Top - End - #520
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post

    2) Discrediting me. You can try, my friend. And if you do, I will insist that upon my death, you die next, because I always flip town, and town always survives the game when you and Bat are wolves.


    3) Asking me to treat his slot and my slot the same when we can be unaligned and are not the same slot, period.

    That is always a wolfy argument. A townie RARELY makes that argument, and when they do, they back off when I argue this exact argument back.


    It is wolfy self-focus. And inconsistency and hypocrisy arguments leveled against me always put you directly in my line of fire and I will not relent anymore, unless I personally find a defense for you against my own argument, or someone else I trust does so, and their evidence is staggering to me.
    You are literally missing the point by miles.

    I don't say you are a wolf. You might be, but I don't think this is likely. And if you are? My opinion about your skill might improve. My opinion about your character will drop even harder.

    I don't want to treat me like you. I want you to accept the fact that we have completely different ways to play. And this is a position I have taken day 1, at the same time I started to read you as town.

    But you don't manage to see this. You might say so from time to time, but you don't.
    Let's take my list of people I am not willing to vote for? For most of the people in there, I had no evidence. But that's not the point of this list. The point is, those are the people I would like to play with. Spoiler alert. You will never ever be on this list. Your behavior is toxic. This does not make me read you as scum. It means I don't like you and I don't want to play with you, completely disregarding alignment.

    I don't think this will offend you, but if it does? Sorry.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  11. - Top - End - #521
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I posted a thing in my chat with gac, but I'm gonna mention it publicly because I've realized what it says about gamestate:

    Spoiler: scum is screwed?
    Show
    On the one hand, I basically trust you at this point. I don't have a specific reason to trust you, but I have a specific reason to not distrust you - BCH is guilty and that will be that.

    On the other hand, because "that will be that", there's not really much to discuss. Even if people aren't feeling very solid on BCH as the final scum, Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, and I are clear, at least to my mind. Xihirli didn't get caught today if it wasn't for Snow, and I have no idea why Snow would push for a xihirli lynch if Snow was scum too.

    N3: [Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, or AV] dies, making it 6-1
    D4: [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan] dies, making it either 5-1 or 6-0 (town victory)
    N4: [Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, or AV] dies, making it 4-1
    D5: [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan] dies, making it either 3-1 or 4-0 (town victory)
    N5: [Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, or AV] dies, making it 2-1
    D6: [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan] dies, making it either 1-1 (scum victory) or 2-0 (town victory)

    At this point, we'd need three mislynches to lose. That only happens if the final wolf is the last person we'd suspect in the scummy list [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan], and even then, that's only if we never clear another player for the rest of the game. I'm looking forward to re-doing ISOs to figure out who was a little too Xihirli-friendly.
    I'm reaching a point where I'm more or less unwilling to check gac before the other three, so unless gac is final wolf, we're in the clear. Incidentally: Popo, did you receive the plan about our targeting?

    So anyway, I'm about 95% sure that our final wolf is within these three guards, and that means the game is essentially over as long as they don't convince us to lynch a non-guard first. So...why is the game still going? Sure, narrator wouldn't shut us down at this point, but scum has been surrendering a lot lately when they see the writing on the wall. So why is game still going? Scumteam is down two players, and the final one literally can't win if they're in the guards. If this is a 4-scum game, and both remaining scum are guard claimants, then they're still caught and get killed before the game can end in their own victory. That means that no matter how absurd it sounds, there are two possibilities:

    1) This is a 3-scum game, and the final scum is not one of the guards.

    2) This is a 4-scum game, and at least one of the final scum is not one of the guards (possibly both, but that's extremely unlikely).

    If 1 is true...well, I've already shown we're three mislynches away from scum victory in a 3-person game. That's guard, guard, guard, lose. If 2 is true, and we've got guard/somebody else as final scum, here's how those day numbers change:

    N3: Town dies, making it 5-2
    D4: Town dies, making it 4-2
    N4: Town dies, making it 3-2
    D5: Town dies, making it 2-2
    N5: Town dies, making it 1-2, scumteam wins

    So presuming no banes and only mislynches...we're two mislynches away from scum victory. Move forward assuming a 4-scum game, because that's the worst-case scenario for us.



    So what I'm going to do is look at the three guard claimants, instead of just one of them. I'm also starting at D3: the Xihirli wagon basically came out of nowhere, so unlike the Emmy wagon, scum didn't have time to plan a reaction. And unlike Emmy, there's pairing/unpairing that can be done. So this is Batcathat/Rogan/Supagoof/Xihirli. I'm fairly certain only one of them is guilty, and with what Popo is indicating about Rogan, it might turn out I'm wrong about BCH. We'll see what I think about who should get checked first, though.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  12. - Top - End - #522
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Weird question, does anyone have an explanation for why the wolves killed Book? My best theory is "let's try to hit the princess since we don't know who she is"

  13. - Top - End - #523
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Weird question, does anyone have an explanation for why the wolves killed Book? My best theory is "let's try to hit the princess since we don't know who she is"
    I've got a couple that I think I mentioned in my priest breakdown.

    1) Scum knew a lot but not everything. N2, the D3 claims hadn't happened yet, and there were some people yet to claim. They were shooting at the people they weren't sure about to find the Princess, Handmaid, Priest, or Prince.

    2) They saw BW's signature too, and killed the baner on purpose.

    3) They saw me say "BCH and BW are unpaired", they saw BCH was claiming to scry Libro, figured that meant I thought BW was Handmaid (which is why I didn't specify the suspicion overnight), and they shot BW.

    - - - Updated - - -

    One of Popo, AV, Snowblaze, Libro, and gac3 is a second remaining wolf along with one of the guards.

    Libro literally can't be it.

    I know I can't be and the rest of you probably agree.

    I'm about 95% sure Popo is good.

    So snow or gac3. If I'm not around tomorrow to do it, multi-ISO them and Xihirli, see what comes up.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  14. - Top - End - #524
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Spirits soar high with Queen's forces in check
    Two have already been found out, and yet;
    each morn someone's poisoned, you think, "oh heck!"
    Poison reminds you how close is the threat.

    You gather slowly, to see who is left.
    You glance 'round to see wolf among the sheep
    You group is now smaller, saddened, bereft.
    You go to find, who did not wake from sleep

    Target this Night was one of high tempo
    Expecting demise from beginning since,
    You find the body of Mr. Popo,
    Leaving the palace with him is the Prince.

    Discussion and voting, just like before,
    Time to get back to work, begin Day 4

    Mr. Popo and Prince Escalus, Town, were poisoned.




    Day 4 Ends Monday, Sept. 20 at 11:30 PM EST /
    Tuesday, Sept. 21 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
    Tuesday, Sept. 21 at 5:30 AM CEST

  15. - Top - End - #525
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Okay.

    ...hmm. That’s two nightkills of people who’ve suspected Rogan now. Is Rogan a wolf or are wolves trying to frame him?

    AV, I don’t necessarily agree about “there has to be a wolf outside the guard claimants”. From my PoV that means gac3 is a wolf, and I... actually, why do I townread gac3 other than “sheeping Mr Popo”?

    Scratch that. Mechanical reason for gac3 to be town. You know when I was talking about Emmy self-targeting in my Xihirli case? And how she’d only do that if there was a decent role in the unused pile? Well, if wolves already had a Baron I can’t see them wanting another one.

    So we’re back to the guard claimants. Batcathat for now, pending working through a Xihirli interaction analysis and the mess that is my feelings on Rogan.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  16. - Top - End - #526
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I decided to try and check out the claim of one of my fellow guards and it turns out that Supagoof is NOT a guard. Not damning in itself, of course, as someone might've messed with his role, but not a good look.

  17. - Top - End - #527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I decided to try and check out the claim of one of my fellow guards and it turns out that Supagoof is NOT a guard. Not damning in itself, of course, as someone might've messed with his role, but not a good look.
    Oh, right. I kinged Supagoof. That one’s my fault. (I am now a guard and can confirm his claim.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Which I guess confirms that you are a guard and targeted Supagoof last night. Not that I think that says a massive amount about your alignment. Thoughts on the Rogan/Popo stuff last night?
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  18. - Top - End - #528
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Which I guess confirms that you are a guard and targeted Supagoof last night. Not that I think that says a massive amount about your alignment. Thoughts on the Rogan/Popo stuff last night?
    If it's more than a coincidence, I think it's more likely an attempt to frame Rogan. Aside from "kill whoever suspects me" seeming like a rather short-sighted stratergy in general, doing it again after it was pointed out after blade's death feels odd. I suppose it could be some sort of "no one would be stupid enough to do that" attempt but I still feel pretty good about Rogan.

    Good to know about Goof, but I'm keeping my vote on him for now, unless a better option presents itself. I suppose it further decreases the already very slim chance of you and Goof being wolf buddies.

  19. - Top - End - #529
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Focusing D3, since that's when the Xi lynch erupted unexpectedly, and it'll give us a good shot of what people are acting like before and after that wagon started.

    Spoiler: Rogan D3/N3 ISO
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Good morning. Short (I hope) Pre-Work post.

    Your post above is giving me mixed signals.

    Pro:
    You prepared an ISO about the night kill. A wolf seems unlikely so so, since they would know the player will be about to die.
    Even if they did an ISO, it would not come to your conclusion. They would say something like "no strong reasons, but leaning town".
    This would make them seem more accurate about their feelings.

    Contra:
    You placed Emmy in the middle of your list. If you felt she was the most likely target, shouldn't you place her at the bottom? Or did you sort the list using some other criteria?

    I have no idea why book would self target in this situation. There was a countess to protect. And even if he were to go for the option of "No need to protect Libro, he would be too obvious " there would have been better targets than himself. He was unlikely to get killed anyway. And we know, neither Mr Popo, nor blades were protected. So, unless someone is willing to claim to have targeted book and got the blocked feedback or someone targeted Libro and got a successful feedback, I am going to assume Libro really was protected.
    If you were lying about your action, I hope you have some good reasons.

    The confusion about the king power was discussed by AV already. In contrast to her, I see it as NAI.




    Claiming power and result should usually be a big NoNo in this game. It would help the wolves to get the full picture more than town. In your situation it still seems better to do it. You did claim before, after all. So, is there anything you want to tell us?

    Spoiler: Serious Claim, very important
    Show

    Claim: The princess was someone who nobody could have suspected. Unfortunately, RA was locked town for other reasons.
    So, the first thing to keep in mind: Rogan didn't vote BCH. This post reads like it's agreeing with the premise, and points out that BW definitely didn't self-bane N2, but doesn't actually back up that professed belief in the flip with a vote.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I think you had forgotten to include the Fi Fo part in the rule clarification part of the OP. But it was asked (by me) and answered in the recruitment. I 100% agree the mechanics should be transparent, so I try to think of such things before the game even started.

    But sometimes it seems like I am the only one reading the answers to those questions. Or at least the only one to remember

    Anyway... I think, for Libro to be scum, the scum team would have to have a Prince without using it and the Countess would have to be on second position in the Queue. This would be a really risky plan for no real gain. Libro doesn't try to profit from his save position to push for an important misslynch. And wolf!Libro would know he doesn't have much time left. One more successful Prince usage and the real Countess would be out, in the open.
    Mr Popo, you should use the Prince power on someone you trust. You can even tell us your target, the wolves can't do anything about it. They either kill your target and we have narrator confirmation, or they let your target alive and he/she can claim.
    Either way, we will have confirmation.

    I don't think I will be able to get really active today. It's 21:00 already and I am not at home yet...
    "I know what will prove Libro is trustworthy! Popo, tell everybody publicly who you plan to vote-switch so that wolves know who to expect will be what role tonight"

    Libro is proven trustworthy by the web of claims. There are no remaining inconsistencies, which either means that more than a couple people are lying for seemingly no reason, or the web as we understand it is true. That means we know what roles were in the unused pile, and countess wasn't one of them. Town didn't know that when this post was made, but scum did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Would you be angry if I would tell you I don't think you could pull this up?
    Because, I don't think you could.




    It wasn't specified, but it seems to be common to do so. But meh, if you knew about this, you would have reacted differently.




    If you are right... When the game ends, dear book tell me, WTF were you doing? And why? And... why did you list your role in the sig? Did you want someone to notice?

    So, Bat? Can you promise to not use your power in an obviously unhelpful way again?
    I mean, it probably is hard to use it well, but you can at least try to verify a claim that is not locked in anyway.

    If there is a Countess Counterclaim from the Prince target tomorrow, Libro will die and flip scum. Afterwards, you will die and flip scum.
    If there is a new Prince or a new Handmaid, there isn't even an theoretical chance of Libro being fake. This is not a proof for your innocence, but you will have another day and night to be helpful. And, depending on the other flips (a nk is nearly guaranteed to happen by now, since one maiden is dead and the other discarded (assuming Xi is honest)) we could clear you by unpairing.

    Spoiler: Crazy Mech Question
    Show

    Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role? Like, a guard targets someone without providing a role to guess.
    The Prince could change the role and the new role could resolve.

    If this is possible, I would suggest the following (assuming honest claims of Emmy, Xi and Snow/Popo):
    Popo targets BCH, BCH targets me, I target one of my top townies.
    BCH will become either the Prince or the maid.
    If BCH becomes the maid, I will be protected.
    Else, he will be a Prince and use his power on me, so I will be the Maid.

    Some other role could target me, to see if I am protected or not. If I am protected, BCH was the Maid and followed the plan. If I am not protected, I can either claim my role or will be dead. One way or the other, my role will be public. If I am the Maid, BCH was following the plan and is a Prince now. If I am not the maid, BCH is either the Countess and Libro lied or, more likely, BCH didn't follow the plan. Either way, BCH should probably die. If BCH flips town, he will flip Countess. Or King, I guess. In which case either Snow or Libro will die. Oh, or he flips Guard, in which case Mr Popo either didn't want to do his part, or he was kinged (again).

    And I guess, I should stop here, since my whole plan relies on Caos answer on the question.

    Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role?
    Regardless of alignment, this plan is dead in the water with Popo off the table. There's no way he went through with it when his top wolf lean was suggesting it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    You are here and talking. Goof on the other hand continues to be mostly silent. Usually, this would make you the better target, since your flip would yield more info. But I don't want to reward silence anymore...
    And at least, you claimed an action for n1. Goof claimed he intended to target me, but had forgotten to do anything. He didn't even say what he had hoped to learn...
    So, right now, I would rather vote Goof than you. Especially when you are willing to work with us.

    I can't tell you exactly what to do. (Except my crazy plan). If I did so, wolves would learn about the plan as well and they could interfere. Or, if you are a wolf, you could follow the plan if it doesn't help town, but do something else if it could help your allies.
    If you come up with an idea yourself, you can state your plan and the results and everyone still alive can judge if this makes sense as a villager.




    Unless I mix some rules up, the guards action is incompatible with the Prince/Maid power. A Baron needs two targets, a Guard a Target and Role. Both supply more to their action than one target, so a normal single target action role like Maid or Prince will fail.
    Rogan is backing away from BCH here, going against his previously stated thoughts about lynching to gain info rather than just killing quiet people trying to fly under the radar. Could be a genuine change of heart, could be that last three scum was somehow rogan/bch/xi and rogan realizes his stated beliefs would require bussing both scumbuddies? But I'm about 90% sure there's only one scum in the guards. They would've thrown by now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Dan is the King, Ellie is the Prince, Frank is the Guard.
    Dan targets Frank, Ellie targets Frank, Frank guesses "Dan is the Handmaid".


    In turn order:

    Dan's ability works. Frank becomes the King, Dan becomes the Guard.

    Frank's action (guessing Dan as the Handmaid) is currently invalid.



    So, it seems like a guard who becomes another role would not be able to use it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But maybe, it's specifically becoming the king that makes the action invalid?
    NAI, basic mech talk.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    About the chart, we also have Emmy who claimed prince turned guard and Xi claiming maid turned guard.
    So, assuming they are telling the truth, the discarded cards are prince and maid.

    I know somebody isn't telling the whole truth. That's Xi. It would make more sense for a Baron to connect someone with himself. And Xi can't be a guard, since I am a guard. But no useful info from my side. Popo wasn't the Priest at end of night 1. But he claimed to have been kinged before I could ask about this, so no new info.
    Snow is not the Baron at the end of n2. That's no new info either.

    So, right now we have one guard claim more than possible, two Priests claims for day 1, with no way to clear either. (At least, I can't see such a way).

    The double Priest claim is more concerning, since Mr Popo and AV are on the top of many read lists and the activity list.

    The Guard claims are not that open and shut. Is there anybody who would like to withdraw a claim and give their reasoning?


    About my crazy plan, I am not sure how Caos clarification about the coin flip would influence things and at this point, I think pouring too much energy into it would only be a distraction.
    If the plan is still possible in the night, I can think about it again.

    Side note: Oh boy... everybody going into the day, thinking it would be clear cut? Wrong... so wrong.
    "The fact that there's six people claiming guard is disturbing, but even more concerning is that there's two priest claims"

    uhhhh one of those isn't possible in the game setup so. And when I made my claim, I even explained that I'm not counterclaiming and that Popo isn't lying, so why was Rogan saying my thing was more concerning than Xi's thing? Could be that he missed my "this is not a counterclaim" clarification, could be trying to call Xi out on the lie while also downplaying its importance?

    Slight counterargument: if Rogan/Xi are w/w, why did Rogan claim guard? He could've claimed Baron and there'd be no contradictions. He'd have to explain why he linked Xi and Snow, though...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Blades was a Priest, not a Prince.



    I think this post is a beautiful illustration of the differences between AV and me. I propose a crazy plan based on mechanics. A plan for further actions, that will generate new info and might save someone from night kill.
    AV on the other hand uses her knowledge of the rules to solve, going backwards AND including motives and reads.

    And if I try to read her own motives? I am running in circles. Wolf!AV would not want to kill Popo, regardless of his Alignment. A Bus would be too risky. A Town killed would make AV the primary target for the next lynch.
    Town!AV would want Wolf!Popo arrested ASAP. But Town!AV would not know Popo is a Wolf. She might have reasons to suspect this (and she laid them all out in her ISO) but she came to a different conclusion. And Town!AVs reasons for wanting Town!Popo alive are even more important. A misslynch here would spell doom for AV and, by proxy, the rest of town.

    I think we can agree that there is no way Popo and AV are w/w? (Okay, they might be bored in this case and want to add a challenge, but come on... they would not be that cruel, would they? )

    Is there a volunteer for going back to a blades ISO to check for a sign he might be the king or intending to target Popo?
    blades ISO isn't that long, since blade died N1 and also didn't post much D1 anyway. They were gonna play the game more casually.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Spoiler: Tech question
    Show

    You selected your post to edit it, copied the contend and went back without really changing anything. Next, you quoted your post. You replaced the auto generated content with the post you copied in step 1.
    Is this correct? Or is there another, simpler way to quote a post without losing the quotes in it?


    After reading this post, I have to agree with Bat. Nothing in there reads king, even if you are looking for it. But it shows that Blades was taking Mr Popo serious and paid attention there.

    The signature of his letter could be interpreted as belonging to an religious order, if you know he flipped Priest, but this is reaching for straws.

    Maybe, blades used the king to see if Mr Popo was the princess. In this case, he would receive invalid target and would know he doesn't need to be paranoid about Popo.
    The power working normally would give blades knowledge of Popos starting role, which might be useful for further analysis.

    I'm afraid, I'm not much better informed now than before reading the whole thing.
    AV remains helpful, but this is not going to proof her innocence.
    Rogan defending Bat again. Once again - at this point in time, the closest thing to an alternate lynch target is Xihirli, who Rogan called out on lying, and yet didn't vote for some reason.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Player List:
    1. gac3
    2. AvatarVecna
    3. Xihirli
    4. BatCatHat
    5. Snowblaze
    6. Libro
    7. Supagoof
    8. Mr. Popo
    9. Rogan
    10. Rogue_Alchemist
    11. Book Wombat
    12. EmmyNecromancer
    13. bladescape
    14. JeenLeen
    Role List:
    • Countess
    • King
    • Prince
    • Prince
    • Handmaid
    • Baron
    • Baron
    • Priest
    • Guard
    • Guard
    • Guard
    • Princess Annette
    • Handmaid Ursula
    • Guard Parolles
    • Priest Helenus
    • Guard Odette

    Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

    AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

    Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim.

    BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another.

    Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
    Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.


    Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 action not claimed?

    Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

    Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

    RA is Princes. No action possible.
    BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
    Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
    died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
    Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.


    Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim




    Xis claim can't be true unless someone else is lying. One guard has to be lying. One Baron is unaccounted for.

    The blue claims are extremely unlikely to be fake. The black ones are neutral.

    Please remember, being truthful about the role is not the same as being town. Same thing for lying and scum, but town would need to have a good reason.
    On the one hand "I voted Xi, now let me tell you why voting Xi might be a mistake"

    On the other hand, I did the same thing about saying "liars aren't necessarily scum", but at least I was doing that because I was convinced about BCH and wanted to catch a definite wolf instead of a possible one. I'm a lot less certain now, although I'd still like to check that claim.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    By the way, I have pointed out that there has to be a lying guard and it's more likely to be Xi than anybody else before.
    I didn't vote right away to give Xi a chance to defend herself and to check my reasoning.
    Xi can still try to defend herself and there could be strategic reasons for voting someone else first, even if we think Xi is guilty. The Baron power can't be used for evil if you are aware of it, after all.
    Looked better at the time than it does now. This post looks awful now that Xi flipped scum.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I know there are multiple reasons to lie. See Jeen in Crazy or PJ, night 1 each. Or town!Mr Popo here, regarding the countess.
    If I catch someone lying, I want an explanation. Sometimes I can guess this explanation, sometimes it remains a mystery.

    I would not claim for my own good. My actions could all be lies, based on believing the previous claims. Part of the limits of my role, I guess. Which is also why I can feel Bats frustration. What are you going to do with this kind of scry? It's more useful for the wolves, they will want to know who the maiden is or who could track them. For town? It is only helpful to back up someone else's claim.

    To clarify why I think Xi is the most likely lier:

    For there to be a Baron from day 1, they would have to be either wolf or very unlucky. Or perhaps not grasping the whole situation.
    There is only one Baron power usage confirmed/claimed for n1 right now. So either, the Baron power failed - wolf or stupid town. (Hitting a Handmaid target and not telling us while BCH is on the chopping block for claiming an action on the most likely Maid target.)
    The other possibility is, there was a new Baron. In this case, the only thing that makes sense is, Xi is the new Baron. She admitted to being Prince'ed. She is one of the QT targets.
    "There are general occasions where lying might have a towny explanation, so this might be one of those"

    [doesn't dig into the possibilities]

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Ah so it was hidden there. Good to know I didn't imagine seeing it.
    This use of action is mechanicaly about as bad as the first, IÂ’m afraid. Asking for the princess will basically never get a 'Yes' as long as the countess is alive. The countess would not want to let an unknown know they guessed right. So you either get No, if the countess is not protected for two nights in a row, without the wolves taking advantage. Or you get an invalid target. The last thing might let you speculate about the meaning about your result, but other than that? It's wasted.





    No good reason given. I think, this is terribly ironic. Xi is using a Snows gambit on Snow. (Hey, I have mixed up the name)

    But okay let's see if this is possible to come from a Villager...?
    What kind of reason would Xi have to claim guard, while at the same time setting up a QT with Snow? It seems like a terrible move. Can anybody see a reason that won't turn into WIFOM?

    Most guards were known. Wolf!Xi would not want to bet on not being called out as an imposter. Town!Xi would gain nothing from a fake.

    What about faking not!Baron?
    Town!Xi would not want to do this. Wolves would know Xi is lying, they would gain additional info to use against her.
    Wolf!Xi has no reason to fake it either. Not after she included herself in the QT.

    So, in conclusion, Xi had nothing to gain, regardless of alignment.
    There is only one problem. It assumes Xi would play this straight. She could do it to gain the option to get into exactly this kind of situation she is right now, simply because it's funny.

    - - - Updated - - -



    I was Ninja'ed. And I made a post addressing this When I saw it.
    Voting Xi and defending Xi. On the one hand, that's better than me since I was defending Xi and voting elsewhere. On the other hand, at least I'm consistent - I didn't vote Xi cuz I suspected BCH more, whereas Rogan is trying to play it both ways.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

    AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

    Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim. Xi changed claim to Baron, mixing up role names.

    BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another. N2 action to guess Xi is Princess. Answer no. Bad decision from mech standpoint. But in line with the other explanation.

    Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
    Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.


    Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 to guess gac as Baron. Answer Yes. No contradiction, but no new info either.

    Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

    Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

    RA is Princes. No action possible.
    BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
    Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
    died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
    Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.


    Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim



    Updated the list. New things in bold. I made a new post for it in order to allow quoting, if necessary.

    Xis change of claim strengthens the Guard claims. That's Goof, Bat and Me.

    Xis original claim makes no sense for either alignment, at least not in my mind. So it was either a mind game, or an honest mistake.

    Goof has RL reasons for being quiet. Frustrating, but probably true.
    I will have problems being active myself the next ig day.
    Sunday is a family gathering, monday is work day. I try to be active near EoD.




    Goof, why did you pick gac and Baron? What made you pick this combination?
    What did you hope to learn night 1?
    Most of this post is IIoA, just listing claims and actions. I think this is the second one of those that Rogan made, too. There's some questions at the end, and the Supagoof question feels like a good one to ask. We also have Rogan saying they won't be active much D4, and this is well before Rogan got Popo suspicious, so maybe focus on the posts so far rather than taking silence as a confession.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Assuming no lies regarding role, this would mean BCH will die. Libro if you think BCH should die, you might want to consider not voting. A tie will give us slightly more info.
    *squints*

    *glances up*

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Scroll up, she's claiming she got confused on mechanic and brainfarted when posting. Idk how easy it is to forget your own rolename though - maybe easier when you've been Prince'd, but it still NAGL. There's some plausible lies that can be pro-town, but "I lied by accident because I forgot what my role was called" doesn't seem like one of them. It really feels like Xihirli is either coasting along playing super-casually, or wants to look less checked-in than she is.
    I was Ninja'ed. And I made a post addressing this When I saw it.
    Xihirli: [admits lie]

    Rogan: [posts without acknowledging confession]

    AV: "uh, confession?"

    Rogan: "crossposted, get off my back"

    Rogan (2 hours later): "Libro, if you want BCH dead, don't vote so we can test whether or not Xi was telling the truth"

    ...this is really freaking strange. On the one hand...what, did Rogan just forget that we had a confession already? Was he trying to check if Xihirli's confession was the real lie? On the other hand...knowing what we know now about the integrity of our claims list, we know that if Libro had listened to Rogan, Xi would be dead anyway. If Rogan is w/w with Xi, he must've been going all-in on bussing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Here is the quote about gac and his actions.
    NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I struggle to parse the first answer. What Priest are you talking about? And why did you suspect gac as the Baron?
    Look, right now, there are two possibility for you to be more likely to be scum. Either, you are lying about your action. At the time of your claim, gac already was out in the open, so your claim would be an easy lie to mask your real action.
    But if you are saying the truth about your action, you guessed right. Guessing right is easier to do for scum, since they know more roles from the beginning. You claim to have guessed, without even night 1 info, the Baron.

    So, I was kind of hoping you could point me to some place of the game where it was hinted that gac might be the Baron. If you were following a hint, this would make your action more trustworthy. Bats actions are not very good, but his explanation is quite simple.

    The explanation of avoiding targets likely to be Maiden'ed is fine. The role switch on the other hand? I would like you to explain this in a bit more detail. There is a way to interpret it in your favor, but I would like to hear it from your own mouth instead of just saying "yeah" after you got this explanation from someone else.

    The part about your interest in me is plausible.
    Supagoof's answer to Rogan's earlier question is weird, and Rogan's perplexed response feels genuine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Counter point. If I had just received a new role, it would be fresh in my memory. If I had the role for multiple rl days, I might have forgotten already. Well, I probably wouldn't, since I like my mechanics. Mechanics don't lie to me. And the role names are not that hard to remember. It's not like I had to remember the name of Dionysus wife.

    Do you think Xi wanted to fake claim? If yes, why? I tried to find a logical reason, but could not find one.
    This feels like grasping at straws. In my personal opinion (which isn't super-helpful now that Xi has flipped), if you accidentally claim the wrong, you might not realize it fully immediately, but there'll be a niggling feeling in your brain that says "that doesn't sound quite right, you should check". Then you check your QT, realize you claimed the wrong role, and rush to fix the mistake.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Ahhh.. okay, I didn't see it that way. Thanks for the clarification.

    And the blue part was not directed your way, it was more of a general jab against history repeating itself. I mean, come on, what are the chances of someone claiming to mix up role names in two of the three games I participated in?
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Popo AV having a private comm channel is wrong, as far as I know. Can anybody comment?

    The rest of your line of thought is something I can get behind.

    About knowing the claim:







    This is a chain of quotes. Ending with the one you seem to know, Goof.

    Gacs claim was discussed even before this line of quotes (gac even says so in the first quote).
    You could have missed it. There was a lot going on today, so missing things is an easy thing to happen if you are not paying that much attention. Still... you could have known and probably should have known.
    I'd be tempted to say "Rogan is trying to put the blame for gac getting outed on AV when it was really Popo" but I can't quite give them crap for it cuz it was based on me saying that was the case, because I thought Popo did it, and then couldn't find it, except it turns out it was Popo. Not that it matters cuz gac was gonna out himself anyway, but...anyway, this is NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Okay, this is probably the first time someone told us gacs role. Hilarious bonus? Mr Popo confused about role names. Something that makes Xi the top target right now.



    Your logic checks out. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. This is an easy thing to happen, especially in some of popos posts. They are so long...
    And I highly doubt AV and Mr Popo are W/W. I think they are T/T.
    Rogan is voting Xi. Rogan is also arguing that Xi is telling the truth about brainfarting. Rogan is also arguing that Mr Popo is just as guilty of brainfarting (or "brainfarting") about role names as Xi is. Let me help read between those lines:

    "I think Xi is guilty, but also I think she's not guilty. But if she flips and is guilty, then maybe we need to take another look at Popo"

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    This AV/Popo Network will only get really online tonight. End of N1, Mr Popo and Gac gained a connection. D2, Mr Popo knows about the Connection, but can't use it. N2, they can talk. D3, there is a new connection, this time with AV. But again, it's not an active connection yet. All private communication is limited to the night.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    It's not a telephone game. Till night. It's a phone game AT night. No talking in private during the day. Except to Cao, to be precise.
    NAI, mech clarification.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Oh yeah. If they are the team, I wonder if they were glad about Emmy dropping out. Without talking, she could not discredit them.

    Hmmm... less than 7 hours left in the day. And it's mostly silent again. I guess I can spend some time on mech talk?

    Spoiler: To maid or not to maid?
    Show

    If we want to have a chance to save someone tonight, we have to go for a variation of the plan I suggested. I don't think guards are important anymore. We have all claims.
    The Priest remains important, he might track a killer to the victim.
    The maiden is important as well, but currently not in the game.
    The Baron is more useful than the guards, but not that important.
    The Prince is required for the plan.
    The King is required to not interfere with the plan.
    The Countess can't to anything.

    I think, I noticed a flaw in my initial idea. If the maiden is first in line, the wolves will know this. So they must not know the first link in the chain, or they can kill the maiden right away.
    This would be the worst case. The last maid would be out of the game. There will never be a chance to save at night.
    Mech discussion, but of the type that can maybe help town.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    5 hours till EOD.

    It's time to go to bed. Good night, see you all tomorrow.
    NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Corrected.

    I don't blame you for forgetting. It happened a lot at this time.
    But I am annoyed about Mr Popo not saying anything. He puts so much energy into the game, I feel like he should have noticed.
    And perhaps a bit annoyed at myself, since I obviously didn't make my case heard.
    Understandable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I could say exactly the same about me. The difference between us is, I am much better at being honest about my actual influence.

    I give you the Emmy vote. You called her out fast and made a strong point about the activity. This lynch might not have happened without you.
    But Xi? You had her pegged as town the whole time. You even asked the wolves to avoid killing her. Only after Xi was caught in a lie, with no good excuses left you hard reversed. This lynch is not your work. This lynch is despite your work.
    Ehhhhh on the one hand Rogan's not wrong, on the other hand...glass houses, y'know? While Rogan has had little callout moments of Xi through the game, as soon as Snowblaze made her case and cast her vote, Rogan was backpedaling and playing devil's advocate (even while voting Xi for most of that time). That kinda "talking out both sides of his mouth" is exactly what he's giving Popo crap for here.

    Now, I didn't catch Emmy and only joined the wagon when it was inevitable. But I don't want to take credits for this lynch. It was handled to me on a silver plate.
    But Xi? I was unwilling to vote her d1. She is entertaining to have in the game and d1 lynch is wrong more often than right. D2, she lost this protection. But she was read as town by multiple players and so I didn't look too closely. When I was prompted to look there, I noticed there was no good concrete content to read her as town. I even pointed this out for everyone to see. I was mostly ignored. (This seems to happen a lot, I'm afraid). I am not confident enough to lead the charge unless I have very good reasons to be confident. So I don't try hard to find a wolf behind Xi, while most players read her as town.
    But when there was a good reason, I immediately said "Xi is lying". Only to be ignored and robbed of my achievement. That's not fair!
    I definitely feel the frustration here.

    I am not good at reading people. I am good at mechanics, the part of the game you have the least interest on.

    I fought against Xi in day 2 of PJ. I saw the mech explanation for Wolf Xi. I wasn't the first to notice, but I think I was the most vocal player to push there. I didn't get support. So I finally, before going to bed, give some alternative explanation with benefits of doubt and change my vote to the other target of the day. Next time I see the game, the wagons moved and Xi flipped wolf, after a literal coin flip. To add to this insult? The other possible target was snow, another wolf and outed by fake claiming a role someone else had. Not enough insult? The wolves noticed what I was doing, which allowed them to use me to kill for them n2.
    Day 3, I come out at the start of day to say we should kill the vig, without claiming. I knew town would need time to hunt for real wolves instead of going for the easy and wrong target that was me. In the middle of the day, I claim vig. I know the wolves know. Remaining hidden is not going to help town. I don't want to allow the wolves to use me more than strictly necessary. The only reason I lived to see the end of PJ (where I killed myself to hand a win out to a helpful neutral) was AV, back from the dead, mech cleared townie and literally the best player to coordinate the town network.

    Or how about Crazy Idea? I was the one who noticed we could get proof of the elimination of the cult by flipping the outed Cultist instead of the outed Serial killer.
    I was the one to point out blocking the guy who claimed Jack and was scried Mafia would be necessary to ensure he dies and could give us a good guess on the question "how big is this team".
    At the same time, as snow pointed out, I reacted poor to her calling me out as possible scum. I am not good at actively deceiving people.

    Or just take a look at the recruitment threads. I am there, asking about the rules and the mech all the time. Because, mech is logical. People are not. And since I ask those questions before alignment is rolled, you can't honestly accuse me of trying to further some kind of scheme.
    Since I am better at mech, that's where I put my mind. I try to understand motivations as well, but I am worse at this part. When in doubt, I look at other players and let them influence my decisions.
    If I ever get out and say "This guy is a wolf, I am certain!" without presenting my mech evidence? I am a wolf. Even if I am right about this, I will have additional info and be more likely to be a badguy. And before you try to use this and d1: I was comfortable sitting on Jeen. Not certain.


    And to make one thing clear: this is not meant to accuse anybody. It's meant to explain why I am annoyed about some things, like the way you want to share credits for the Xi lynch with Snow. The Xi lynch rightfully belongs to me. I called her out first. I wouldn't have allowed for it to be ignored forever.

    I don't think you do this with ill intend. It's more likely to be a difference in approach and character. But you do it. And I am annoyed.
    Honest criticism is something I can accept. Honest and deserved compliments as well. But robbing my accomplishments? That's where I draw the line.[/QUOTE]

    FWIW, this isn't the first time this game that Popo and Rogan have bumped heads over playstyle differences, and it's honestly kinda accurate. This is just how Rogan plays.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Hello Snow. I think we can share credit and blame. I could have been a bit more insisting, you could have been a bit more attentive.

    And if you feel like it after the game, I'd be glad to discuss the previous games in more detail, but I don't want to distract from this game too much. If you have a specific question and you feel like you need to ask it to understand this match better, it's okay to ask. If you are just curious, let's keep this out of this match.

    But thank you for the compliment. I am usually very self-critical, so an honest assessment of my capabilities is appreciated.
    ...blame? Share blame? For the Xi lynch? What blame is there to be shared?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    You are literally missing the point by miles.

    I don't say you are a wolf. You might be, but I don't think this is likely. And if you are? My opinion about your skill might improve. My opinion about your character will drop even harder.

    I don't want to treat me like you. I want you to accept the fact that we have completely different ways to play. And this is a position I have taken day 1, at the same time I started to read you as town.

    But you don't manage to see this. You might say so from time to time, but you don't.
    Let's take my list of people I am not willing to vote for? For most of the people in there, I had no evidence. But that's not the point of this list. The point is, those are the people I would like to play with. Spoiler alert. You will never ever be on this list. Your behavior is toxic. This does not make me read you as scum. It means I don't like you and I don't want to play with you, completely disregarding alignment.

    I don't think this will offend you, but if it does? Sorry.
    More of the same.


    Overall, I'm kinda iffy on Rogan. There's a lot of concerning signs in this ISO, but this is also ignoring anything from before D3 (and basically everybody was townreading Rogan then). I can see where Mr Popo is coming from - generally at this point in the game, really good players will be far far more likely to get annoyed and angry when they've lost scumbuddies to 2 of the 3 lynches. On the other hand...that's kinda Popo's general problem, he's treating this community like the crowd of hardened veterans it used to be. But there's more new players than you'd think, and very few members of the old guard. Rogan's posts here could read like scum losing their cool in the face of inevitable defeat, if that's the situation where you're most used to seeing frustration, but I used to be where Rogan's sitting, and I remember being angry a lot. Popo referenced it even. I'd try pure mech clears, as if ignoring the social aspect of a social game and just spreadsheeting hard enough could somehow solve the game. Some games, I never posted cuz I didn't have anything to say because I wasn't sure how much I could trust the responses, and then I'd get autolynched for inactivity. I had a longstanding tradition of always voting myself once a game, and the number of times that turned out to be a good idea was like...twice, tops.

    Rogan is one of the guard claimants, so he's on my list for one of the scum slots. But he's not lockscum to my mind. Light scumread for now, mostly because of the "guard claimants" principle. if one of the others flips, his slot looks much better.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    AV, I don’t necessarily agree about “there has to be a wolf outside the guard claimants”. From my PoV that means gac3 is a wolf, and I... actually, why do I townread gac3 other than “sheeping Mr Popo”?
    Here's my case:

    This game started with 3 or 4 wolves. 5 would be ridiculous, so it's right out (and it's only plausible if BCH is scum). 6 is impossible cuz game would've ended already. So, 3 or 4. If this game started with 3 scum, there's one left and they're almost certainly in the guards. So here's the timeline if town needs three guesses to catch the guard:

    D4: 6/1 --> 5/1
    N4: 5/1 --> 4/1
    D5: 4/1 --> 3/1
    N5: 3/1 --> 2/1
    D6: 2/1 --> 2/0 town victory

    To clarify, let's suppose the real wolf is Rogan. We hit BCH on D4, and they're town. We hit Supagoof on D5, and they're town too. We hit Rogan on D6, they're wolf, and the game is over. Town can't miss the final scum unless all the guards are innocent. And yet...there's no surrender. Wolves haven't given up even though victory is inevitable. That either means scum is more interested in playing things to see how far they get than they are interested in only spending effort if it can achieve full victory...or it means that our victory isn't actually inevitable. If this is a 3-scum game, the final scum is one of AV/Snowblaze/Libro/gac3. And I know for damn sure it isn't me or Libro.

    If this is a 4-scum game, the timeline looks more like this:

    D4: 5/2 --> 4/2
    N4: 4/2 --> 3/2
    D5: 3/2 --> 2/2 scum victory

    Now we need only two mislynches to lose.

    To clarify, let's suppose that Rogan is the only guard that isn't scum. We hit Rogan on D4, and miss. We hit BCH on D5, and hit. We hit Supagoof on D6, and hit. We've now hit all the guards, and eliminated both remaining wolves. So if there's still two scum, and both of them are guards, scumteam is still screwed if town eliminates all guards first. They have every reason to surrender rather than drag the game out for another week, which they'll have to spend constantly convincing town to vote elsewhere. Unless they keep the game going for the sake of not quitting, the only reason not to is because they're not actually screwed. And that's only the case if at least one of the remaining scum isn't a guard.

    So our options are: either scum isn't surrendering for some inexplicable reason, or scum isn't surrendering because one of the scumteam is sitting pretty in towncore.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Batcathat for now. I'm open to voting Supagoof or Rogan instead on Guard Principle, but I'd really prefer BCH got checked first.

    - - - Updated - - -

    2am here, and unlike most days I kinda have to be up in the early morning, so I'm gonna get a nap. See you nerds later.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-20 at 06:33 AM.


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  20. - Top - End - #530
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    Spoiler: living people on Xihirli, day one
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    This makes me lean slightly towards Xi being Town. When we were wolves together last game, she pushed a lot for moves that'd make an interesting challenge rather than playing it safe, so protesting a plan for being unsporting in favor of Town seems more towny than wolfy coming from Xi. Of course, she might be counting on someone pointing that out, so who knows for sure?
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Hard agree here. Xi is on my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    From my side:
    Mr Popo - you are save unless you get counterclaimed.
    Snowblaze - you are save unless your plan results in a spectacular backfire.
    Xi - You are save as long as you write nice letters and there is no realy good reason to vote you.
    Rogan - I don't see my death as an advantage for town. After all, I can prommise you one thing: I won't kill a seer this game!
    BatCatHat - I like those posts for now. Plus, beeing in a similar TimeZone, so we might spend some time being active together.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post

    Currently unwilling to lynch:
    Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BCH.
    They actively gave me reasons to want them alive.
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post

    • bladescape – No idea at this time.
    • gac3 – No idea at this time.
    • AvatarVecna – Maaaaybe slight townread?
    • Xihirli – Slight townread for the reasons I stated earlier.
    • Batcathat – Completely trusted and dashingly handsome.
    • Book Wombat – No idea at this time.
    • Rogue_Alchemist – No idea at this time.
    • Snowblaze – Feels town, but almost always does. Plan might be genuinely good idea, genuinely bad idea or sneaky wolf idea.
    • Libro – The counter-claim makes me lean town. But maybe the wolves knew the Countess was inactive and wanted to make Popo look bad? Though it seems like a risky move, so probably town?
    • EmmyNecromancer – No idea at this time.
    • Supagoof – No idea at this time.
    • Mr. Popo – Oddly, I kind of trust him more after the whole claim/counter-claim. I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning but I could see why someone would make it.
    • Rogan – I'm kind of leaning towards town, but that might just be a reaction to him seeming to trust me.
    • JeenLeen – My strongest wolfread, but based entirely on his weird reaction to Snow's plan.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post

    BatCatHat/Book Wombat/EmmyNecromancer/Rogue_Alchemist/Supagoof/Xihirli: Very few posts with anything that really provokes thoughts from me. Inactives aren't here, Xihirli is Xihirli'ing, sky is blue, ho hum.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post

    Unwilling to vote today:
    Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BatCatHat, Emmy, Rouge.
    AV (it would still be funny, but that's not sufficient reason for a vote anymore)
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I agree with most of this but another thing about Jeen (admittedly based on my own lesser experience) is that he usually have pretty solid plans and "Let's lynch Snow to decide if we should follow her plan or not" still strikes me as a weird one. Of course, maybe it's a smarter plan than I think or maybe Jeen just has a bad day, but it's still my main argument for voting him.

    That said, an alternate wagon probably wouldn't be a bad idea.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    As much as I like you, Xi, you won't convince me to vote for someone with literally 0 posts and therefore 0 connections to any other player.
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post

    Indeed, if being wolf buddies with them last game taught me anything, it's that both of them are scary good at playing townies. Though I still get a town feel from Xi and I agree with whoever said blade is acting differently this game (last game he was driving the discussion a lot more, for one thing) which might be a good sign. So neither of them would be my first choices for either town or wolf.


    Which... I think implies that day two "exactly one in BCH/Rogan" was right after all.

    AV - I get your point about the surrender, but I'm struggling to see how anyone other than the Guard claimants can be a wolf. I'm town, Libro's town, you're not making any of the moves a wolf in your position would make.

    There are maybe wolf!gac3 worlds, but that's pretty unlikely at this stage - that should be my next move, actually, check out gac3's day three.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yeah, I like gac3's day three. Not hard bussing, not hard defending, not hedging, just working their way through the implications and getting to the right answer.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Which... I think implies that day two "exactly one in BCH/Rogan" was right after all.

    AV - I get your point about the surrender, but I'm struggling to see how anyone other than the Guard claimants can be a wolf. I'm town, Libro's town, you're not making any of the moves a wolf in your position would make.

    There are maybe wolf!gac3 worlds, but that's pretty unlikely at this stage - that should be my next move, actually, check out gac3's day three.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yeah, I like gac3's day three. Not hard bussing, not hard defending, not hedging, just working their way through the implications and getting to the right answer.
    Are you saving Supagoof for later or just randomly excluding him from your suspect list? I can see why I'm suspect number one (damnit BW, couldn't you just have protected Libro N1?) but surely Goof is as suspect as Rogan or gac, if not more.

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    Well, gac3 isn’t a suspect really, just someone I need to be able to clear more confidently than I can at the moment.

    Supagoof... he’s definitely still in my POE but I liked some aspects of his day three and the reasons I wolfread him earlier feel like “Reasons Snowblaze Tunnels Town” and/or me wanting him to be a wolf because I was the main alternative at that point.

    (Also Rogan has trended down significantly today, to the point where I’m considering voting for him instead of you. But I’d like him to show up and give thoughts before I decide.)
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  23. - Top - End - #533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Well, gac3 isn’t a suspect really, just someone I need to be able to clear more confidently than I can at the moment.

    Supagoof... he’s definitely still in my POE but I liked some aspects of his day three and the reasons I wolfread him earlier feel like “Reasons Snowblaze Tunnels Town” and/or me wanting him to be a wolf because I was the main alternative at that point.
    I guess I can sympathize with that and I suppose a lot of the things that feel wolfy about Goof to me also made me suspicious of BW and those suspicions turned out rather unfounded.

    I'll try to take a look at all the main suspects with fresh eyes and an open mind, but at the moment I'd still rather vote Goof than Rogan. Of course, if it comes down to Rogan or I, I'll change my vote (I guess a case could be made that a towny Rogan would be a greater loss to town than myself, on account of being more experienced, but I'm not certain about him enough to self lynch on account of that).

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    As Mr. Popo was brought out, you all swear you can hear his voice.


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    Things seem quiet today. I wonder if it's the absence of Popo or people just being busy? (I've spent most of the day putting together a home theater system. So many wires, so many settings, makes my head hurt...)

    Tomorrow I'll hopefully have more time to go over at least Goof, gac and Rogan again. Maybe AV too, if I have even more time (I don't really suspect AV that much, but avoiding looking closer at someone out of laziness seems sloppy and possibly risky ).

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    I'm running my Sunday game, and who knows some people might be in church this morning? I think Rogan is, he said something about it?


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  27. - Top - End - #537
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    On the bright side my paranoia that Mr. Popo might have been a wolf playing us is gone.

    I'll vote here in a little. I know it's for sure going to be one of a few people but I am planning to include my updated reads list with the vote so I need to put that together.

  28. - Top - End - #538
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    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    On the bright side my paranoia that Mr. Popo might have been a wolf playing us is gone.

    I'll vote here in a little. I know it's for sure going to be one of a few people but I am planning to include my updated reads list with the vote so I need to put that together.
    Popo game you death messages yeah? Anything worth sharing, or are they all out of date?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I've got a bit more sleep in my future, so I'll be back in a few hours to really dig into some people. I'm unhappy with how the game's basically died without me and Popo pushing stuff.


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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Popo game you death messages yeah? Anything worth sharing, or are they all out of date?

    - - - Updated - - -

    I've got a bit more sleep in my future, so I'll be back in a few hours to really dig into some people. I'm unhappy with how the game's basically died without me and Popo pushing stuff.
    Yeah. I'll check that and see. I'll probably post it all even though some of it is outdated by a day due to the events of yesterday

  30. - Top - End - #540
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    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Yeah. I'll check that and see. I'll probably post it all even though some of it is outdated by a day due to the events of yesterday
    So long as you mark which ones are N2 and N3, it should be plenty useful.


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