A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #271
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Every person shall claim what they will at the time of their choosing, no more, no less.

    Even though, yes, there is no point in mass claiming particularly under no pressure.

    But there is also no point in doing what Bat did as a wolf here. It just gets more attention on you for flinching a bit, when there was no real momentum on them in the first place.
    I'm not scumreading them for claiming (working on the BCH ISO right now, and they're looking ok so far), it's just frustrating that like half the living players have claimed roles, and the only one I think maybe should have is Libro, who was counterclaiming somebody (even if this was a weird case where counterclaiming might have actually been the wrong move, but it's hard to hold that against him).


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  2. - Top - End - #272
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Okay I'm trying to think of who all is claimed.

    Libro
    Snow?
    Emmy
    Batcathat

    Not sure if Snow actually is one or who the 5th one is but of the three I'm confident in:

    Libro counter claimed. Not a bad move. Would have been better if it had worked like normal and led to a lynch of a wolf.

    Emmy claimed presumably to avoid being lynched? Though honestly it didn't help their case much for me.

    Batcathat claimed in the interest of trying to confirm a townie claim. Might not be the best move (especially since nobody was actively doubting it that I've noticed) but isn't a bad move per se.

    Of those three the most suspicious claim that I can see is Emmy but mainly because it seems like a weird night action as well as a weird and unhelpful first post.

  3. - Top - End - #273
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Okay I'm trying to think of who all is claimed.
    Popo also claimed priest/king and I don't think Snow seriously claimed anything.

  4. - Top - End - #274
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Okay I'm trying to think of who all is claimed.

    Libro
    Snow?
    Emmy
    Batcathat

    Not sure if Snow actually is one or who the 5th one is but of the three I'm confident in:

    Libro counter claimed. Not a bad move. Would have been better if it had worked like normal and led to a lynch of a wolf.

    Emmy claimed presumably to avoid being lynched? Though honestly it didn't help their case much for me.

    Batcathat claimed in the interest of trying to confirm a townie claim. Might not be the best move (especially since nobody was actively doubting it that I've noticed) but isn't a bad move per se.

    Of those three the most suspicious claim that I can see is Emmy but mainly because it seems like a weird night action as well as a weird and unhelpful first post.
    My list is Libro, Mr Popo, Supagoof, EmmyNecromancer, and Batcathat, in that order. I actually have a 6th claimant but it was surprisingly subtle and I don't wanna call it out and give scum even more info. But also that 6th person wasn't Snow. Why did you think Snow was on my list?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: Batcathat ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Now I want to rewatch A Knight's Tale. I love that movie.

    Anyway, I think getting Snowblaze killed is just my thing now. Might as well own it.
    Randvote. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I just assumed it was your alter ego. By day, mild-mannered and loyal knight Supagoof, by night villainous queen-supporter Sugapoof. We have foiled your evil plot, good sir!

    (Meanwhile, spell check suggests that I should call you SUPAGRO for some reason. Perhaps a third, even more devious, personality? )
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Wait, are you implying votes on AV need to be justified?
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    This makes me lean slightly towards Xi being Town. When we were wolves together last game, she pushed a lot for moves that'd make an interesting challenge rather than playing it safe, so protesting a plan for being unsporting in favor of Town seems more towny than wolfy coming from Xi. Of course, she might be counting on someone pointing that out, so who knows for sure?
    This is an actual point in favor of townreading Xi. It's meta, and Xihirli's meta is confusing metareads, so I wouldn't necessarily count on it, but still it's something as opposed to the nothing I found from the ISOs of other people townreading Xi.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    It's good of you to pick up the slack, but I'm curious whether this will make the classic mistake of "scrolling for the vote count and gets fooled by Snow's sig" more or less prominent. (Well, it's a classic mistake for me, anyway, and I'm pretty sure someone else talked about it at some point)
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I think that's right. At least, that's what I got too and I think we're in the same time zone. But I'm frequently confused by time zones so it's entirely possible I've made a mistake.

    So I probably won't be around for EoD much this game. I would appreciate it if everyone would schedule their game changing revelations for earlier in the day.
    I feel like we're getting into EoD2 and yet BCH is still here. Not sure if "6 hours to EoD" isn't what they meant by "wont be around for EoD much", or if this is an attempt to cover up a potential lack of activity at very important points in the game. idk it's just setting me off.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I'm a little worried about the same thing. Snow always kinda reads as town to me.

    That said, I don't have any actual suspicions about Snow at this time and my vote for her remains a "it's early D1, let's vote for whoever" type thing. I suppose it's entirely possible that she actually is what she seems this time.
    Wish-wash-wish-wash, but it's still pretty early so I can let it go. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    They could probably claim Countess but since the Princess can get Narrator confirmation on a claim, it seems insanely risky to fake-claim since I don't think there's any reason for a Princess to publically claim and not use her power.
    A good mech point, but one anybody could make. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Heh, that would be a pretty funny use of the mechanic. I wonder if there's a situation where it would make sense to do so?
    This comes across like BCH is just thinking aloud. Speculating about the possibility of people hardclaiming princess to specifically get denied by the narrator isn't necessarily anti-town.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Wait, does a confirmed Princess lose her own vote? I thought it was only the votes against her that were nullified. But the rules are a little like time zones in terms of how confident I am in understanding them.
    Mech question. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    The description of the Princess says "Once per game, you may publicly declare yourself Princess (by bolding words to the effect of Claim: Princess). The Narrator will confirm your role. Going forward, your vote count at the end of each Day will be set to 0, regardless of how many people voted you. After revealing yourself, the only Night action that can target you is the Mafia kill." The bolded part makes me think it's only votes against the Princess that are affected. Or is there some other part of the rules I'm missing?
    Mech clarification. NAI. Btw, this is why discussion of mechanics isn't always the most helpful thing - it's technically discussing aspects of the gameplay, but it's more discussing a theoretical gamestate rather than the actual gamestate, and it takes up time, energy, and focus to address.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Is it just me or does Jeen's reasoning here seem a little odd? Lynching someone to judge if their plan is pro-wolves or pro-town instead of just dissecting the plan and judging it on its own merits?
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    That's not the worst explanation but something still feels off to me, so lacking better ideas I'm gonna say JeenLeenfor now.
    Early JeenLeen suspicion and vote. I'm not willing to scumread people just for scumreading JeenLeen, because he was acting awfully weird D1

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I'll probably be kinda busy for most of the (real-life) day but I figured I might try to literally collect my thoughts in one place before that. It's not really anything new, but still.

    • bladescape – No idea at this time.
    • gac3 – No idea at this time.
    • AvatarVecna – Maaaaybe slight townread?
    • Xihirli – Slight townread for the reasons I stated earlier.
    • Batcathat – Completely trusted and dashingly handsome.
    • Book Wombat – No idea at this time.
    • Rogue_Alchemist – No idea at this time.
    • Snowblaze – Feels town, but almost always does. Plan might be genuinely good idea, genuinely bad idea or sneaky wolf idea.
    • Libro – The counter-claim makes me lean town. But maybe the wolves knew the Countess was inactive and wanted to make Popo look bad? Though it seems like a risky move, so probably town?
    • EmmyNecromancer – No idea at this time.
    • Supagoof – No idea at this time.
    • Mr. Popo – Oddly, I kind of trust him more after the whole claim/counter-claim. I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning but I could see why someone would make it.
    • Rogan – I'm kind of leaning towards town, but that might just be a reaction to him seeming to trust me.
    • JeenLeen – My strongest wolfread, but based entirely on his weird reaction to Snow's plan.
    Good to have a readlist, wish more people were giving them. Slight townie points for giving us something to look at later to see if BCH is being consistent or is changing suspicions to suit their needs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I agree with most of this but another thing about Jeen (admittedly based on my own lesser experience) is that he usually have pretty solid plans and "Let's lynch Snow to decide if we should follow her plan or not" still strikes me as a weird one. Of course, maybe it's a smarter plan than I think or maybe Jeen just has a bad day, but it's still my main argument for voting him.

    That said, an alternate wagon probably wouldn't be a bad idea.
    *nodnod*

    Reasonable suspicion of JeenLeen is reasonable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I definitely agree about Jeen and at least partly about gac but I don't really have opinions either way on BW. I should go back and reread some stuff.



    Indeed, if being wolf buddies with them last game taught me anything, it's that both of them are scary good at playing townies. Though I still get a town feel from Xi and I agree with whoever said blade is acting differently this game (last game he was driving the discussion a lot more, for one thing) which might be a good sign. So neither of them would be my first choices for either town or wolf.



    Yeah, my biggest worry is that we lynch Jeen and he flips town. If that's the case I'll start doubting everything.
    Alright and now we're setup for BCH to review all their leans after the Jeen flip.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Somehow I feel like I know less D2 than I did D1, I felt so confident about Jeen that him flipping town made me question all my reads. I'll probably try to reevaluate everyone from scratch, starting with the people who already have votes.

    Now that AV and Popo are agreeing with each other, I'm getting a little paranoid that they're both wolves, based mostly on how screwed we'd probably be if that was the case. Less of an accusation and more of a "Hey, wouldn't it be horrible if...?".

    Oh, and the day on the "converted" time for EoD is wrong (but the date is right so it doesn't really matter).
    I have a similar concern about a potential Xi/Popo. This reads as genuine worry to me. Townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Wow, I never realized how paranoid I come off but it's probably true. It'll likely only get worse going forward, I don't think I've ever been as confident in a wolf read as I was about Jeen and that certainly bit me in the behind.
    This is in line with my expectation for BCH behavior regardless of alignment. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    No, I think it is. The rules says "If the game begins while no one has the Princess" which seems to indicate that it's possible that no one is Princess.

    I'm at work, so more reactions and reads of my own will have to wait (no one tell my boss how much I already think of this game at work ). As a side note, Popo having a baby makes me even more impressed about his activity and energy. I'm single and childless but not even half as active.
    Good correction.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I ended up with less time than I thought. I'll just update my earlier list for now and will hopefully have time to reread some posts in greater detail later tonight or tomorrow.

    Also, a purely technical question for the more experienced players (which is pretty much all of you)... what's the easiest way to gather all of a player's posts so far? Going page by page allows me to quote all the posts I'm looking for but it's kinda slow while using the search function I can find all at once but it seems I still have to click them to quote them or read the entire post. Am I missing some better method?

    • gac3 — Hard to say, I keep kinda flipping back and forth. Definitely someone I have to look at in greater detail.
    • AvatarVecna — Feels even more town than before but nothing solid.
    • Xihirli — I'm still leaning town and for mostly the same reasons. Arguing against her own credibility for defending Jeen is funny but I feel like its something she'd do whether town or wolf.
    • Batcathat — Probably less trusted now but even more stunningly handsome.
    • Book Wombat — Pretty much same as gac.
    • Rogue_Alchemist — No idea at this time.
    • Snowblaze — Still leaning town, though maybe less than before. I agree with gac about Snow maybe not acting quite like herself, but her explanation is decent, so I remain unsure.
    • Libro — Pretty much guaranteed town at this point.
    • EmmyNecromancer — No idea at this time. I'm a little vary of voting for her, just because I remember how useful her inactivity was for us (that is, the wolves) last game. Though in that case she had posted, even if it was very little and rather cryptic, so it's not quite the same situation.
    • Supagoof — Good to see that he's active again but not really any read on him yet. Wonder what it says about my self-esteem that Goof calling me good at these games makes me suspicious?
    • Mr. Popo — Still leaning town, I think? I should reread his many posts but the fact I haven't played with him before in combination with his odd (if entertaining) style makes him hard to read.
    • Rogan — Yet another I'm flip-flopping on.
    BCH feels very wishy-washy about every single one of these reads except for the ones like rogue_alchemist where they have no reads at all. Granted, this exact result was forecast to be a consequence of jeen flipping town, but I'd still rather if a readlist were made it would have something concrete. Anything.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I decided to start with gac since he's both one of the people I'm most unsure about and he hasn't been super active so I figured it'd be quick. Yeah, that was pretty wrong, these things take time. I'll do more tomorrow but I'm not sure I'll have time to do (more or less) post by post analysis on everyone I'd want to.

    Writing this, I also realized that I might be kind of an anti-Popo in that I tend to argue against myself and ending up seeming (and feeling) unsure about everything. So there's a lot of "on one hand... but on the other hand...". I blame the fact that I've rarely met an argument I don't want to disagree with, even when it's my own.

    [gac3 ISO cut for length]

    Not sure what to make of it in general. I think the part about forgetting the game seems less wolfy than I thought at the time. He's kind of jumping around with his accusations but that could be a townie being unsure just as well as a wolf trying out different targets. All in all, I just read all his posts and is roughly as unsure about gac as when I started. Maybe it'll help if I sleep on it.
    Not an unreasonable conclusion, but not really a solid one either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I'm not the right person to check the math, but I've been having similar thoughts myself. Even if we get lucky and lynch an inactive wolf that doesn't really tell us anything.

    I'm also entertaining the unlikely but amusing idea that both Emmy and rogue are wolves and as inactive as they seem, leaving some poor third wolf to do all the work. They have my sympathy if that's the case, after my experiences as the one person cult.

    And yeah, it is pretty quiet. I expected waking up to a ton of new posts, rather than two. As with yesterday, I'll probably make the occasional post during my work hours but saving the more in-depth thinking until I get home.
    The one real downside to lynching scum!Emmy: it doesn't really give us much info. Heck, since this post, Emmy has posted, and Popo has pointed out that we can't even really trust the people on Emmy's wagon because wolves probably knew Emmy was caught last night. Slight townie points for calling out the info issue.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Hmm. Pushing gac for reads after gac being suspicious about you not pushing people for reads this game? It's not necessarily suspicious but...
    I like this callout.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    It's always dangerous to assume other people work the same as one self but at least for me, I feel like I'm more likely to go into defensive mode when I'm scum. All of that explanation despite not having a single vote against her? Hmm.

    Of course, there have been quite a few suspicions thrown at her (especially by me, it feels like) and it's certainly possible Snow's just freaking about a possible mislynch.

    Snow should probably be my next ISO. Hopefully then I can either trust her or just commit to voting her.
    The first part feels good and then it gets wish-washed away.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Ooh, that's a neat list. Will read all of it when I have the chance.



    It will be interesting to see if you're as good as you think you are. I don't mind arrogance when it's earned, humility is for people who don't have enough to brag about.
    Longshot but: if Popo ends up being wrong about another lynch, it might be worth checking BCH. This almost reads like "I'm a wolf and I know you're wrong, so ARE YOU SURE ABOUT THAT". That's the kind of thing that would have to be revisited in a day or two, though, so null for now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    That is true, my actions in the Percy Jackson game was pretty much the wrong ones from beginning to (a rather quick) end but I ended up learning quite a bit from it. Though by this logic I'm bound to suck as town, since I've won all the games I've been town (which sounds impressive until I remember that it's only two games and my first two games to boot, so I wasn't exactly a key player in our wins. )



    Although I generally feel better about gac after my ISO, this feels... I don't know... a little forced? Not enough to push me in either direction exactly, but I don't like. (Though as with my reaction to Snow's defense, it's based a lot on how I think I would act, so I could be way off. Most people aren't me, after all).
    gac ISO initially got a "idk how to feel about gac" reaction, albeit one BCH was gonna revisit later. I guess it got revisited at some point because now BCH "generally feels better about gac", except for how this post is setting off their scumdar, except how maybe that's because BCH is expecting people to act like them and that's a bad assumption...

    *rubs temples*

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Finished my ISO on Snow. Found some stuff I liked more than before and some stuff I liked less, over all I'm still rather undecided. I noticed that she kept coming back to Rogan, so maybe I'll have some more clarity on Snow after looking closer at him.

    [Snowblaze ISO cut for length]
    the ISO itself feels like it's drawing good enough conclusions, but as always, it circles around to "I don't know how to feel about this person".

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    And another one done. I really doubt I'll have the time and energy for more than one or maybe two more before EoD. Not sure how much they are helping me or anyone else, but it feels like good practice if nothing else.

    [Rogan ISO cut for length]

    A lot of mixed feelings in this one too, but there were a few things I really liked so I think I ended up leaning town on Rogan.



    Wait, so are you saying that you think specifically one of us is a wolf or that at least one of us is a wolf? Because it sounds like the former but the argument seems to support the latter.
    Praise be, an honest-to-god opinion. It's honestly refreshing. And it even agrees with me! Clearly that means I should townread BCH.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    That's nice. Meanwhile, I think a switch flipped in my brain and I went from always townreading you to distrusting everything you say. Like planting the idea that if Rogan or I flip town, the other should get lynched (and backing off it when questioned). I do like you reading me as town, but that paranoid part of my brain is saying "If I was a wolf, wouldn't Batcathat be the kind of unexperienced player that'd be nice to have in the endgame?".

    Screw it, if my stupid brain can't make up its mind, I might as well trust my stupid gut. Too many tiny things about Snowblaze rub me the wrong way.



    Good to see you at last. Claiming unprompted does seem to be part of your MO, so that makes sense. Though are you saying that you were active N1 but only posted now? That does seem a bit odd.
    Oh cool, the "unsure about Snowblaze" read has solidified into a vote! I don't agree with the vote but it's nice to have BCH staking a position down.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Yeah, that's fair. I did go into your ISO hoping it'd lead to a vote against either you or Snow (and was leaning towards you, to be honest) but I can't say your argument didn't help motivate me to finally get a vote off. I'm not super confident about either of you (I suppose I sort of subconsciously decided that one of you probably is a wolf, if both of you are that's some good distancing) but it felt like your posts had a few more town leaning things and fewer red flags so I'm okay trusting you at the moment.



    Good to know. I don't really consider Emmy's inactivity in itself to be particulary wolfy, whether before or after her belated entrence, since she hasn't really been very active in earlier games. But doing an night action and not even checking into the thread to give a comment, analysis, anything is rather troubling. I was vary about voting Emmy earlier but now I don't know.
    On it's own I'd probably read this as BCH trying to subtly defend Emmy, but Popo made a good point that wolves knew this particular goose was cooked last night. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I don't know how much my word is worth at moment, but if it helps I checked Libro's claim and it checks out.

    (So yes, I claim guard. I figured it claiming won't really hurt my chances either way).
    *rubs temples*

    I've already said my piece on this.


    Light Town Lean. BCH would probably be my strongest townlean yet, except for the constant undermining of their own opinions, and the unwillingness to give their thoughts on people. That wishy-washy stuff is too good at hiding scum, and even with a lot of good stuff in the ISO, I can't bring myself to rate BCH higher than this right now.

    I'll also clarify: the reason it's good to give opinions even if your opinions are wrong, is that it gives the rest of us something to work with, something to analyze. We can look at things from your point of view and think "if I were thinking about the game like that, is this how I would react to that post? is this who I would vote?" If we get into endgame, and you're still here, the ability to look at your votes, your leans, and the reasons behind them, is what will help us figure out if you're scum or not. Scum knows this, and even just subconsciously tries to hide their thought process to make it harder to read them.

    It's okay to pick up the torches and pitchforks and personally ensure a townie is lynched, as long as you were walking people through it. Yeah, it sucks to mislynch somebody, but it sucks harder to get into endgame and have three people who kinda just followed the herd and didn't have opinions. That's essentially just playing russian roulette. But if we get into endgame with three people who constantly gave leans and reasons and thought processes and points of view, we'll have 48 hours to dig into all that nonsense and figure out who was faking their thoughts to protect their scumbuddies.


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  5. - Top - End - #275
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Still, as much as I cherish your personality, I have to scum case you in a second.
    'Curse you aquascuuuuum"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uix2ja0IBAI - for reference.

    Anyway, sure. I get it. Focus on everyone. I did. I am still suspect on everyone. I have not seen any concrete proof of roles, other then Jeen and Blades of course. I'm assuming everyone else lies, how well is the question.

    Feeling the logic for Emmy. No point in joining or not joining now. "But Goof, don't you want to beat a dead horse?" - Why?
    Spoiler
    Show
    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  6. - Top - End - #276
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'll also clarify: the reason it's good to give opinions even if your opinions are wrong, is that it gives the rest of us something to work with, something to analyze. We can look at things from your point of view and think "if I were thinking about the game like that, is this how I would react to that post? is this who I would vote?" If we get into endgame, and you're still here, the ability to look at your votes, your leans, and the reasons behind them, is what will help us figure out if you're scum or not. Scum knows this, and even just subconsciously tries to hide their thought process to make it harder to read them.
    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Anyway, sure. I get it. Focus on everyone. I did. I am still suspect on everyone. I have not seen any concrete proof of roles, other then Jeen and Blades of course. I'm assuming everyone else lies, how well is the question.
    Presented without further comment.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Recent behavior has lowered my rating for Supagoof. Emmy's rating is more or less because I think Popo has the right read on her one post.

    Libro
    Rogan
    Snowblaze
    Batcathat
    rogue_alchemist
    Xihirli
    Book Wombat
    Supagoof
    gac3
    EmmyNecromancer

    EDIT: And Popo is in a special unranked tier on his own, both because I've yet to ISO him and because he's simultaneously my top townlean for some very good reasons but the rest of his play makes it clear that he could be faking it all as scum (he's even explicitly said as much).
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-14 at 05:17 PM.


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  7. - Top - End - #277
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    “I drowned my best friend when I was eleven,” I told them.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Emmy's rating is more or less because I think Popo has the right read on her one post.
    Two posts.
    But yeah, the quality of the posts and the information on them has not persuaded me to switch votes even though the reason has changed.
    Spoiler: Quotes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

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    Batcathat, Book Wombat, gac3, Libro, Supagoof, Xihirli

    I'd like to hear your 3x3. Top three town leans, top three scum leans, and something on why you feel that way. Doesn't have to be extremely substantive, just wanna get a feel for where your heads are at right now.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    “I drowned my best friend when I was eleven,” I told them.



    Two posts.
    But yeah, the quality of the posts and the information on them has not persuaded me to switch votes even though the reason has changed.
    Right, it was two small posts really close, my bad. >.<


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    Quote Originally Posted by EmmyNecromancer View Post
    Maybe we should test these claims/ISOs for Snowblaze, Libro, Mr Popo, and AvatarVecna just in case.
    Did you... Did you realy ask to test the claim of Libro? He is locked town! And to test his claim would mean to kill him, since he can't simply ask for narrator confirmation. Thats not going to happen, ever!
    And if Snow, Mr Popo or AvatarVecna would claim Princess right now, I would have to ask them what they have been smoking. Its would be a terribly stupid move to do so right now. They are not in danger of dying today. They should all stay shrφdingers princess.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post

    General question: if there's a wolf in my towncore, who is it?

    For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo.

    Going to go now. Will probably be back sometime before EOD.
    If you don't know who it is Snowblaze, that's because it's likely YOOOOUUUUU! lol

    It would appear as I was writing up my post on BatCatHat, that BCH was also writing up a very, very long ISO post. Crossed you off BCH.

    RogueAlchemist - only because I'm starting to think my pointing of fingers is getting some pretty hefty responses.
    Snow: I don't think I gave you an answer to this question before.
    If there is a wolf in your towncore, it's either Xi or BatCatHat. But I didn't read your review of BCH in detail yet.

    Supagoof: Forget about Rouge! He won't be lynched today. This is no valid presure vote. This is pure stupidity.


    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    *sigh* guess we'll just have to find wolves before LyLo so me being the Designated Final Mislynch doesn't come into play.

    The point of the maths was to consider the worst-case scenario.

    I think I'm starting to lean town on you now, Rogan. Also remember liking some earlier gac3 posts, remind me to look at that tomorrow assuming I'm still alive.

    Supagoof, is there some kind of reference I'm missing with "it's probably you"?

    Libro
    Batcathat/Mr Popo/AV
    Xihirli
    Rogan/gac3
    Emmy/rogue/BW
    Supagoof

    Is roughly where I am.
    I think, we can drop the math now. It is not applicable anymore, with Emmy posting today.

    About your read list, Libro is locked. Popo and AV are placed right as well.
    Setting me on one level with gac3, into the middle of the ranking is nothing I can complain about either.
    I think, I would place Emmy last. It might not be optimal to shoot someone with low activity, but Emmys actions are terible. The only point going for her would be the Night action. A Wolf would not select the Guard for herself. But she might have wanted to gain another role and simply was unlucky, assuming a town prince was active as well.
    It might stroke my ego if you swaped Xi and me. But I might also think Wolf!Snow was going to pocket me after setting me up for a lynch did not work. So this placement is good as well.

    Unfortunately, your list and the current state means we have to pick a relatively inactive player.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Common memE/quote - "If you don't know who the ____ one in the group is, then it's probably you."

    In that order? Cause it's not me, so cross me off your list.
    I'd rather have you crossed off the List in the OP by now...

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Someone else giggled along and told us of the time in fourth grade when she had chased another girl around a classroom trying to hit her with a pointer. No particular reason. Unfortunately for her, the principal walked in just then. She came home crying from being paddled and lied to her mother. She said the principle had been cruel to her. After winning over her parents, the principal lo and behold, showed up on her doorstep to explain the situation.
    When it was my turn, they looked at me with red, expectant eyes.


    Emmy's back! Great!

    Well, I could be persuaded off of the "kill the silent" wagon as now Emmy is not silent. Supagoof's RL stuff could very well be true but that doesn't make him not a wolf.
    Though I do also feel weird about apparently getting a Night Action from Emmy but no chat until just now. Words speak louder than actions, as they say.
    I promised to pay more attention to Xi, so here I am. The fluff is a nice little story about lying and getting caught. It could have some connection to the gamestate, somewhere deep down. But if there is such a meaning, I don't see who should play which role...
    The analysis is basically similar to my own thought processes, but only to the point where Xi implies exactly the opposite of my conclusion.

    For me, Emmy's behavior is clearly worse than Goof's. So far I've been unwilling to vote for her since she was going to die anyway. Goof's behavior, on the other hand, while not helpful to the village and quite suspicious in places, at least he gave some reasons. I can't verify those reasons, but I believe him when it comes to RL.

    So, why would Xi change her stance on Emmy? If Emmy is Wolf, Xi might have been willing to bus the inactive. Especially if Wolf!Emmy says the truh about her n1. An inactive living to see day 3 would be nearly 100% been an outed wolf. Lynching her afterwards would be a no brainer and make for a boring day.
    Lynching her today, while she did not talk? It could give some town cred for catching a wolf, it would sacrifice a wolf that was doomed to die anyway. It would be a good move for a wolf.

    If Emmy is a wolf, Xi is more likely to be a wolf as well. There is basically guaranteed to be at least one wolf on Emmy right now, especially if she is a wolf. Of course, this wolf doesn't need to be Xi, but it is a possibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Yeah, that's fair. I did go into your ISO hoping it'd lead to a vote against either you or Snow (and was leaning towards you, to be honest) but I can't say your argument didn't help motivate me to finally get a vote off. I'm not super confident about either of you (I suppose I sort of subconsciously decided that one of you probably is a wolf, if both of you are that's some good distancing) but it felt like your posts had a few more town leaning things and fewer red flags so I'm okay trusting you at the moment.



    Good to know. I don't really consider Emmy's inactivity in itself to be particulary wolfy, whether before or after her belated entrence, since she hasn't really been very active in earlier games. But doing an night action and not even checking into the thread to give a comment, analysis, anything is rather troubling. I was vary about voting Emmy earlier but now I don't know.
    This first part feels genuine. He explores how his thought process worked and is not shy to admit he was biased in some ways. He's not trying to make me seem great and infallible (spoiler alert: I'm not) like Popo did day 1, while still admitting the work I have done.

    The second part... It is a bit flip floppy again. But it's also talking about other games. I remember her well from PJ, where she managed to win day 1. So she didn't have much time to be active, but she used this time quite effectiv. In Crazy Idea, she was quiet as well, but again, not as quiet as here. Her actions also made more sense to me. I didn't play in Afterlive, but I think I have read she was modkilled for inactivity or something like that? Are there other matches I should know about to judge her actions? Bat, can you clarify?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post

    Emmy: (5) AvatarVecna, Mr. popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat, gac3
    Gac3: (1) Libro
    BatCatHat: (1) Rogan
    Supagoof: (1) Snowblaze
    Snowblaze: (1) BatCatHat
    Book Wombat: (0) unvote
    Rogan: (0) unvote, unvote

    The votes for Gac3 and Bat and Snowblaze aren't going anywhere today I feel.

    As for Supagoof, I endorse Supagoof as a counterwagon to Emmy, but with votes this scattered, I will not move my vote to him.

    Currently not voting:


    1. Rogue_Alchemist
    2. EmmyNecromancer
    3. Supagoof
    I agree that I don't think my vote for Bat is going anywhere today. He also had some improvement going for him. He is not cleared yet, but I didn't manage to read everything that could clear him, but I am going to give him the benefit of doubt.
    Of the two low posters, Emmy and Supagoof, I'd rather take Emmy. I don't see a single good thing about her and her 100% lack of explanation is especially bad. Seeing her flip might shine a new light on Xi as well.

    Popo? Could you explain why you would rather go for goof?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    [SPOILER]
    So I just dove Emmy Necromancer's past several games.

    In one, she was busy and town and specifically requested to be auto lynched.
    In another she was town and played it out, though not particularly active.
    In another she was a neutral and played it out quite a bit.

    In all of these, she posted day one, and placed a vote, I believe. Skimmed quickly.

    <Snip>

    In short, it is all wolfy stuff, and also, designed to limit the damage to her team.

    And in the event I am wrong, this is also the least bad execution we have.

    Because she also claimed to not be the Princess, and there is no way to confirm her ability, and because she is widely suspected, this will help us move on even when it is wrong.

    But I don't like to be wrong, so I meta dove her, and I think she played out this game because she has wolf mates she doesn't want to let down.

    At least tanking a day arrest keeps the rest of them alive, and then they can shut me up and hunt the rest of you without me yapping about it.
    Thanks for reading my mind and answering a question I didn't ask before. So she (Emmy) was not auto killed, but requested the modkill after being under suspicion, while she didn't have the energy or confidence to help town any other way.
    If she is a wolf this time, her behaviour would be basically the same. She want's to die, but without hurting her team too much.

    Voting for Emmy would be exactly what she wanted to achievein this case. We should take a look at the votes at the time of her claiming to see who might be an ally she wanted to protect.





    Okay, time to finaly send this post instead of going back to add even more stuff and reactions.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


    More Mafia

  10. - Top - End - #280
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    The light flickering, was that purposeful? Am I meant to decode it? I don’t know what to make of this game of charades, but I’ll play along. For now.

    Cordially,
    Your Enemy


    That's not really the way I think. I have a top one scumread (Emmy) and since I think I've got one I'm good for now. If that lynch becomes nonviable I'll refocus and try a new one, but that's not really coming up right now. I'll pick the next target later, but I already have this one.
    is that enough of a peek into my psyche?
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  11. - Top - End - #281
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    I think Rogan might be onto something.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-14 at 05:41 PM.


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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Batcathat, Book Wombat, gac3, Libro, Supagoof, Xihirli

    I'd like to hear your 3x3. Top three town leans, top three scum leans, and something on why you feel that way. Doesn't have to be extremely substantive, just wanna get a feel for where your heads are at right now.
    Okay, let's see...

    Town:
    • Libro: Is the Countess, so unless there's some mechanic I'm missing, he literally has to be town.
    • Rogan: A lot less certain, but I did like a lot of the ISO more than I thought I would. A lot of his reactions and reads seems a lot like my own, which might explain it. Not sure that's a good reason for trust but it works for now.
    • Xihirli: Not a ton to go on and I haven't had time to do an ISO on her. Feels like she's acting differently than when a wolf.


    Wolf:
    • Snowblaze: As previously stated. Not really any one thing, just several little things that makes me nervous.
    • Emmy: Low activity and unprompted claim seems pretty standard with her but action without even posting anything until way later? I don't like that at all.
    • Book Wombat: Feels like a lot of mechanical talk but less actual contribution. Might change my mind after doing an ISO.


    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    The second part... It is a bit flip floppy again. But it's also talking about other games. I remember her well from PJ, where she managed to win day 1. So she didn't have much time to be active, but she used this time quite effectiv. In Crazy Idea, she was quiet as well, but again, not as quiet as here. Her actions also made more sense to me. I didn't play in Afterlive, but I think I have read she was modkilled for inactivity or something like that? Are there other matches I should know about to judge her actions? Bat, can you clarify?
    No, those are the ones I'm thinking about too, at least. In Afterlife she made a cryptic post (or maybe a couple? I don't really remember) but was mostly inactive, she was modkilled but by her own request, as I understand it (if she hadn't been, she would've been a likely lynch).

  13. - Top - End - #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    “I drowned my best friend when I was eleven,” I told them.
    This is amazing.

    I love Xihirli. I never want them to die this game for any reason.

    I have a gentleman's request to the disloyal scumbags or whatever:

    If you have no need to kill Xihirli, can you not? Because I want to follow this game after I am dead, and reading stuff like this gives me a feathery tickly feeling deep in my undercarriage.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I think Rogan might be onto something.
    Rogan did pretty well today.

    I will have my messenger service tell you whether I think it is sufficient to lock him town in the morning.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Popo also claimed priest/king and I don't think Snow seriously claimed anything.
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    My list is Libro, Mr Popo, Supagoof, EmmyNecromancer, and Batcathat, in that order. I actually have a 6th claimant but it was surprisingly subtle and I don't wanna call it out and give scum even more info. But also that 6th person wasn't Snow. Why did you think Snow was on my list?
    Because I missed the other two and thought I still saw people referring to Snow as the princess which made me even more unsure about what I had thought had been a joke.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Batcathat, Book Wombat, gac3, Libro, Supagoof, Xihirli

    I'd like to hear your 3x3. Top three town leans, top three scum leans, and something on why you feel that way. Doesn't have to be extremely substantive, just wanna get a feel for where your heads are at right now.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Right, it was two small posts really close, my bad. >.<
    Top town reads (in order most to least)

    Libro: Probably doesn't need explaining.

    Batcathat: They sit well with me. They feel like they are contributing and nothing has marked as looking potentially bad. Most other people that I have a townie feel about have at least some stuff making me go "but... They could be a wolf" and I haven't had those moments with BCH.

    Rogan: When I finally got around to them, I was looking for what evidence lead Blade to say we should look into them. I didn't spot any. Maybe I missed it or something but I have a good feeling about them. They might actually deserve the second spot. It's another instance of them giving me a good feeling and me liking what they have been contributing without any real strong "this seems odd" moments.



    Top wolf reads (in order of most to least)

    Emmy: Not showing up wouldn't be that bad but given what little and weirdness was provided when they did show up just seems... Terrible.

    Snowblaze: Snow is playing different this time. I'm struggling to place exactly what it is but normally they seem pushier. Maybe they backed off because of the presence of Popo and all that but it doesn't sit right with me. They normally are pushy (in a good way... I know the wording might sound negative) even when they are a wolf. So it's just all around weird.

    Book Wombat: they are acting pretty normal for them but normal for them is still not very helpful. They don't weigh in much and when they do, it's not very helpful.



    Other notable town read/wolf read:

    AV/Mr. Popo: These are both the type of players that based on their behavior I want to put as town and on anyone else I'd probably have locked them in for sure. But they are also the type that I either know (AV) or suspect (Mr. Popo) could pull off looking just as townie as a wolf. So I think they are good to keep around because they stir conversation but because of their specific styles I feel they are equally likely to be wolves as town.

  15. - Top - End - #285
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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    EDIT: And Popo is in a special unranked tier on his own, both because I've yet to ISO him and because he's simultaneously my top townlean for some very good reasons but the rest of his play makes it clear that he could be faking it all as scum (he's even explicitly said as much).
    It's exactly that sort of paranoia that could assist me in hitting a second wolf tomorrow.

    Keep up the good work.

  16. - Top - End - #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Rogan did pretty well today.

    I will have my messenger service tell you whether I think it is sufficient to lock him town in the morning.
    Don't mistake me, that post is more about Xihirli than Rogan. I'll look into the big rogan analysis post in a bit.


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    It's always AvatarVecna time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan: When I finally got around to them, I was looking for what evidence lead Blade to say we should look into them. I didn't spot any. Maybe I missed it or something but I have a good feeling about them. They might actually deserve the second spot. It's another instance of them giving me a good feeling and me liking what they have been contributing without any real strong "this seems odd" moments.
    Well here is where I was at with my own lowering of the townread.

    1) Everything rogan did on day one gave me good feelings. It felt great. It felt like great pushback and questioning and villaging, and some good attack in on suspects.

    2) When everyone who reeks of being scum is dead and some of them are townie (if) and most of my top villagers have been snacked, then my bet for where the wolves are become in the pile of those folks who are good at being scum because they are good at creating exactly those sort of warm feelings, and also, because I feel my other town reads are more solid. But, not by much. Snowblaze could be ultra bold wolfing, but I get there if we have to go there if we have to go there and not really before that.

    3) I would have to read back and pull specific posts demonstrating where I feel Rogan the actually decent wolf gave himself avenues of victory. However, unless I am trying to case him and kill him, I don't want to give people ammunition to use after I am dead and unable to reverse and object. I reserve the right to reverse on him a second time. My focus will be here overnight, when I am not holding the infant and being wide awake for over a day.

    As much focus as that even allows.

    I am already pretty drunk tired at this stage, so serious case work is probably not a good idea here, but I do have to remark about the goofster, and I had to step away for a bit, and get back to that.

  18. - Top - End - #288
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Popo's posts are so numerous and so long that just quoting them all has my post at 127000 characters - that's two and a half posts worth of characters, and I haven't even added my own commentary yet. There's no way I'm gonna have that finished in three hours, especially when I need to cook dinner too, so I'll probably be working on that on and off so I can have it ready to go D3. Popo seems confident he's gonna die tonight, so maybe I'll get to see mid-game for once.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I promised to pay more attention to Xi, so here I am. The fluff is a nice little story about lying and getting caught. It could have some connection to the gamestate, somewhere deep down. But if there is such a meaning, I don't see who should play which role...
    The analysis is basically similar to my own thought processes, but only to the point where Xi implies exactly the opposite of my conclusion.

    For me, Emmy's behavior is clearly worse than Goof's. So far I've been unwilling to vote for her since she was going to die anyway. Goof's behavior, on the other hand, while not helpful to the village and quite suspicious in places, at least he gave some reasons. I can't verify those reasons, but I believe him when it comes to RL.

    So, why would Xi change her stance on Emmy? If Emmy is Wolf, Xi might have been willing to bus the inactive. Especially if Wolf!Emmy says the truh about her n1. An inactive living to see day 3 would be nearly 100% been an outed wolf. Lynching her afterwards would be a no brainer and make for a boring day.
    Lynching her today, while she did not talk? It could give some town cred for catching a wolf, it would sacrifice a wolf that was doomed to die anyway. It would be a good move for a wolf.

    If Emmy is a wolf, Xi is more likely to be a wolf as well. There is basically guaranteed to be at least one wolf on Emmy right now, especially if she is a wolf. Of course, this wolf doesn't need to be Xi, but it is a possibility.
    If Xi is town, Rogan should be town here a lot. It's not strong, but I can go into why after feeding the kiddo who just woke up.

    There is a huge disconnect between Xi being a townie and Rogan-the-wolf's read of the in character stuff.

    For example, Xi already explained that her story has nothing to do with this one because of a deep misunderstanding that this setup is based on some other story the narrator had in mind that already exists, but Xi plowed ahead with her own creative work anyway.

    Which was... villagery.

    And Rogan trying to ponder the deeper meaning of it, means there's bits of the game that haven't fully absorbed into his brain despite clearly reading the game thoroughly.

    Which means there's a struggle to comprehend happening. It helps when you've read the game 20 times by now, chronologically and within isos. You get there.

    Wolves have no such struggle, at all. On one read through they get most of it, and on another they go power role hunting or mechanics hunting and they read everything every townie says as exactly on the level and they don't struggle to comprehend and instantly believe everything the townies say.

    Spoiler
    Show
    Which is why I lie to wolves.


    And fakery of this specific type has never happened once in 500 games. Attempting to solve Xi based on their roleplay which they already explained was meaningless.

    And if thats a double bluff and it isnt, then Rogan is a genius and I am willing to concede he found stuff I did not.

    I dont even want to talk about it because information of that kind means it is meant to fool wolves and is not meant to fool villagers, because it is too deeply embedded and most of us ignore it.

    Anyway, all of this means I am willing to lose to "Rogan the wolf" now. I gotta see me get fooled by something this sneaky one time, ever. Just for the sheer novelty of it.

    I even said I look for subtle clues, so Rogan could have been a level 9 wolf and been a total genius and constructed exactly this trap, in his brain, and I kinda want to wander inside of it and admire the handiwork, because it is frigging immaculately constructed.

    Top tier. Welcome back to my town even before I do the proper digging and the complete process work.

    Popo? Could you explain why you would rather go for goof?
    I saw this bit, and I wouldn't yet. Emmy flip first here, pretty much always.

    I think it may not matter, but in all the events where it does matter, Emmy over Goof.

    And I will be giving the goof iso as soon as I feed the kiddo again.

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    My Dearest Enemy,

    I had a fiancι once, until I got rid of him.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post

    I love Xihirli. I never want them to die this game for any reason.
    Aw, I love you, too.

    And while I customarily am opposed to defending myself on principal here, because hey, the worst you can do is kill me, I will respond to this
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    So, why would Xi change her stance on Emmy?
    Saying that I didn't change my stance on Emmy. I have not moved my vote, and have put up a few posts indicating my renewed resolve to leave it where it is even before I was pressured on it. I can be persuaded to switch to Supagoof if an Emmy wagon becomes no longer viable, that is not the same as saying that I have changed my mind.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  21. - Top - End - #291
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Popo's posts are so numerous and so long that just quoting them all has my post at 127000 characters - that's two and a half posts worth of characters, and I haven't even added my own commentary yet. There's no way I'm gonna have that finished in three hours, especially when I need to cook dinner too, so I'll probably be working on that on and off so I can have it ready to go D3. Popo seems confident he's gonna die tonight, so maybe I'll get to see mid-game for once.
    Yeah roleblocking me and stealing my priestly power is clearly meant to give the wolf team that power, and also, stop me from doing anything dangerous because my reads are getting good.

    After that there is nothing left but killing me.

    Popo knows how it works. Popo has been forced to kill pesky villagers who get all up in the grill of the mafia before.

    I take it as the compliment that it is.

  22. - Top - End - #292
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Popo's posts are so numerous and so long that just quoting them all has my post at 127000 characters - that's two and a half posts worth of characters, and I haven't even added my own commentary yet. There's no way I'm gonna have that finished in three hours, especially when I need to cook dinner too, so I'll probably be working on that on and off so I can have it ready to go D3. Popo seems confident he's gonna die tonight, so maybe I'll get to see mid-game for once.
    Did a comparison with my own ISO and I'm at 74k. And y'all know how much I love to talk. Wild.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Yeah roleblocking me and stealing my priestly power is clearly meant to give the wolf team that power, and also, stop me from doing anything dangerous because my reads are getting good.

    After that there is nothing left but killing me.

    Popo knows how it works. Popo has been forced to kill pesky villagers who get all up in the grill of the mafia before.

    I take it as the compliment that it is.
    Yeah, even with how D1 went down, I definitely don't see a townie roleblocking you.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  23. - Top - End - #293
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Spoiler: Review of BatCatHats Day 1. Many thanks to AV for gathering the posts
    Show

    Disclaimer: I did not include all the quotes but concentraited on those I actually wanted to say something about.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I think that's right. At least, that's what I got too and I think we're in the same time zone. But I'm frequently confused by time zones so it's entirely possible I've made a mistake.

    So I probably won't be around for EoD much this game. I would appreciate it if everyone would schedule their game changing revelations for earlier in the day.
    This one resonates with me for obvious reasons. We are in a similar situation regarding EOD. (Right now, I am in the comfortable situation of having the next day off as well. I will be busy again on Thursday.) This is not proof of his allignment, but I still feel sympathy for this post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I'm a little worried about the same thing. Snow always kinda reads as town to me.

    That said, I don't have any actual suspicions about Snow at this time and my vote for her remains a "it's early D1, let's vote for whoever" type thing. I suppose it's entirely possible that she actually is what she seems this time.
    Some paranoia about snow, but nothing concrete. Still voting for her. It's early day 1, so this vote does not carry that much weight. It is a bit like the behaviour I called out day 2. Throwing shade, but not too much.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    They could probably claim Countess but since the Princess can get Narrator confirmation on a claim, it seems insanely risky to fake-claim since I don't think there's any reason for a Princess to publically claim and not use her power.
    This is the same oppinion about the Princess I had at that time. It turned out to be a flawed oppinion, but I don't think Wolf!Bat would say something like that on purpose.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    The description of the Princess says "Once per game, you may publicly declare yourself Princess (by bolding words to the effect of Claim: Princess). The Narrator will confirm your role. Going forward, your vote count at the end of each Day will be set to 0, regardless of how many people voted you. After revealing yourself, the only Night action that can target you is the Mafia kill." The bolded part makes me think it's only votes against the Princess that are affected. Or is there some other part of the rules I'm missing?
    AV called this post NAI mech speculation that would distract from the actual game state. I disagree. It is an important clarification and 100% in line with his previous mindset. He sees a Princess claim as an advantage, so as soon as he sees something that is both wrong and might influence the Princess to stay hidden, he steps in and makes sure the Princess will know she does not need to fear loosing her vote.
    This is both helpful and something I would have done as well. The rules of the game are the law. It's important to know it and to ensure everybody is on the same page there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Is it just me or does Jeen's reasoning here seem a little odd? Lynching someone to judge if their plan is pro-wolves or pro-town instead of just dissecting the plan and judging it on its own merits?
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    That's not the worst explanation but something still feels off to me, so lacking better ideas I'm gonna say JeenLeenfor now.
    This seems to be out of line with his day 2 behaviour. He calls something suspect and does not take long to vote there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I'll probably be kinda busy for most of the (real-life) day but I figured I might try to literally collect my thoughts in one place before that. It's not really anything new, but still.

    • bladescape – No idea at this time.
    • gac3 – No idea at this time.
    • AvatarVecna – Maaaaybe slight townread?
    • Xihirli – Slight townread for the reasons I stated earlier.
    • Batcathat – Completely trusted and dashingly handsome.
    • Book Wombat – No idea at this time.
    • Rogue_Alchemist – No idea at this time.
    • Snowblaze – Feels town, but almost always does. Plan might be genuinely good idea, genuinely bad idea or sneaky wolf idea.
    • Libro – The counter-claim makes me lean town. But maybe the wolves knew the Countess was inactive and wanted to make Popo look bad? Though it seems like a risky move, so probably town?
    • EmmyNecromancer – No idea at this time.
    • Supagoof – No idea at this time.
    • Mr. Popo – Oddly, I kind of trust him more after the whole claim/counter-claim. I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning but I could see why someone would make it.
    • Rogan – I'm kind of leaning towards town, but that might just be a reaction to him seeming to trust me.
    • JeenLeen – My strongest wolfread, but based entirely on his weird reaction to Snow's plan.
    This post is good, with some bad streaks. He gives a list of the players and his oppinions. Thats helpful, townie behaviour. But most of those oppinions are non commitment, including many "No idea at this time". If we remove this padding, we are left with ~5 real reads, none of them very strong. But it is better than most players.
    All in all, town lean.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post

    Yeah, my biggest worry is that we lynch Jeen and he flips town. If that's the case I'll start doubting everything.
    Okay, this part might explain why he was fast when voting for Jeen, but slow when he was judging Snow and me day2. Maybe I am undestimating Bat here, but I don't think he could fake this as a wolf.



    I remember again why I liked Bats day 1. I also see what Snow meant when she said we were in agreement a lot.
    His behaviour between days changes a bit, he is less willing to comitt now than he was before. But he has a good explanation: He is partly responsible for the death of a townie, since he started the Jeen case. This case was wrong, but it still was a good case.
    If this is a play, coming from a wolf? You will be BatCat, since Hats off!



    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Okay, let's see...

    Town:
    • Libro: Is the Countess, so unless there's some mechanic I'm missing, he literally has to be town.
    • Rogan: A lot less certain, but I did like a lot of the ISO more than I thought I would. A lot of his reactions and reads seems a lot like my own, which might explain it. Not sure that's a good reason for trust but it works for now.
    • Xihirli: Not a ton to go on and I haven't had time to do an ISO on her. Feels like she's acting differently than when a wolf.


    Wolf:
    • Snowblaze: As previously stated. Not really any one thing, just several little things that makes me nervous.
    • Emmy: Low activity and unprompted claim seems pretty standard with her but action without even posting anything until way later? I don't like that at all.
    • Book Wombat: Feels like a lot of mechanical talk but less actual contribution. Might change my mind after doing an ISO.


    - - - Updated - - -



    No, those are the ones I'm thinking about too, at least. In Afterlife she made a cryptic post (or maybe a couple? I don't really remember) but was mostly inactive, she was modkilled but by her own request, as I understand it (if she hadn't been, she would've been a likely lynch).
    I am surprised about your order regarding the wolf reads. You have BookWombat lower than Emmy? Why?

    Thanks for the details about Afterlife. Mr Popo was a bit faster than you are, but this is not meant to be a critique. I simply want to state: This guy realy puts a lot of energy into the game. Im impressed.

    After my reread, I have to do the boring thing:
    Vote: Emmy

    My next actions will be:
    Crossing out my old vote.
    Reading what happend while I was busy with this post.
    Not answering, unless it is a direct question for me. I'd rather go to bed now. Good night everybody.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


    More Mafia

  24. - Top - End - #294
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Popo's posts are so numerous and so long that just quoting them all has my post at 127000 characters - that's two and a half posts worth of characters, and I haven't even added my own commentary yet. There's no way I'm gonna have that finished in three hours, especially when I need to cook dinner too, so I'll probably be working on that on and off so I can have it ready to go D3. Popo seems confident he's gonna die tonight, so maybe I'll get to see mid-game for once.
    This is another big indicator.

    And in general, the folks who are seriously still processing me out instead of half hearted pretending, are all town most likely. The wolves are aware of my alignment and that I do have to die at night for them to win this game, if I am remotely correct, and even when I am sloppy-but-get-there-in-a-day-or-two correct, I still need to die because I probably have a wolf pelt before I get there anyway.

    Where there was suspicion on me day one from not villagery people, if that vanished without much explanation that is probably wolfy.

    This is generic, and generic is meaningless without the specific examples.

    Spoiler: generic
    Show
    Generic is also wolfy, give you an example:

    "The wolves are the ones trying to do X today!"

    Okay, so name their names.

    Without specifics, it is just theater.


    But I have specific persons in mind, I just am kind of filled to the brim with lots and lots of tabs and there's so much I am doing right now. It's 4 windows loaded with dozens of tabs, and only one of them has anything to do with supagoof right now,

  25. - Top - End - #295
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I’m picturing the conspiracy board with the thumbtack strings mounted on the pelt of Slowmara up in Kami’s Lookout.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  26. - Top - End - #296
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Thanks for the details about Afterlife. Mr Popo was a bit faster than you are, but this is not meant to be a critique. I simply want to state: This guy realy puts a lot of energy into the game. Im impressed.
    Spoiler
    Show
    I systematically unpaired all of the living townies in Return of the Clowns, specifically paired the live team of 3 wolves in MYLO and LYLO, described in immaculate detail literally all of their scummy moves all game up to and including where they pocketed townies, which of their votes were to find town powers and which were a bus, I posted nearly a thousand times, and 38-combo consecutive posted a big long explanation for how they had no viable day executions left and that they couldn't even night kill me anymore, and because their suspicions went in a circle but also included me, they logically had proved I was town and that they would be forced to bus each other and I would be alive in final 3 with their final member and no one alive would ever vote me there. That was game, the game literally ended before the remaining two rounds played out because no one wanted to go through that.

    I spend hundreds of hours per game. I put a lot more hours into the other one I am doing right now.

    Wolves gotta kill me before endgames especially if I hit any single wolf.


    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I’m picturing the conspiracy board with the thumbtack strings mounted on the pelt of Slowmara up in Kami’s Lookout.
    Spoiler
    Show


    It's literally more complex than that.

    But the really sad part is, stuff that should take 10 seconds to figure out, like with the Rogan thing digging into your roleplaying, which should spew you both town at this point, I feel like that's sufficiently accurate, and everything else I am doing is overly complicated and more thorough than I need to be given the game state, but it's just...

    I have too much PTSD from one wolf living in games, so I gotta kill em.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The purpose of being a townie is to rain fire and death and pain and agony and destruction down on the wolves until every single one of them is dead or I am.

    And I intend to share this message of hope with the world.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-14 at 07:23 PM.

  27. - Top - End - #297
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Many thanks to AV for gathering the posts
    Actually that reminds me, I think somebody asked about how to find only the posts from a specific person for the purpose of doing ISOs? There's a couple good methods, depending on how you wanna do the ISOs:

    1) Go the Structured Games Subforum, and find this game in the list (right underneath the stickied posts, I'm sure).

    2) Look over to the right, where it says "Replies:" and "Views:".

    3) Click the "Replies:" number, and it'll open a new window that lists out each person who's posted in the thread, and how many times they did that.

    4) Click the number next to the name of the person you wanna ISO, and it'll take you to a Forum Search page that lists only that persons posts in that specific thread.

    From there, you can click links and it'll take you straight to that person's post, and you can read through while making your own post and write up your reactions/analysis. This will tend to end up looking like gac3's ISOs (which is why those ISOs made mention of the number of posts each person had made). This could probably be done directly via the Forum Search button, but I tend to find this is the faster method when I do it (which isn't frequently).

    The method I tend to do involves quoting every single post so that people have the context for what I'm talking about, which can be a bit time-consuming. Here's my method for that:

    1) Open up three forum tabs: one for the game you're ISOing, one replying to the game you're ISOing, and one replying to a different thread entirely.

    2) use "Ctrl+F" to search the webpage for appropriate search terms (see spoiler below), such that you should be brought directly to the posts by the person you're ISOing.

    3) Click the Multiquote button in the bottom-right of that person's posts. If/when you click 11 posts as part of a multiquote, the last post will not be quoted, and instead you'll be directed to new page letting you reply to the thread.

    4) Copy-paste your 10 quotes from that page onto the already-open "Reply To Mafia Thread" page you opened in step 1. Go back to the page you were quoting on, and click the back button; this will take you right back to the 11th post you tried to quote.

    5) Switch to the tab where you're replying to a different thread and reload the page. There will be a line of text beneath the reply box talking about quotes from another thread. Click the response that says to unquote them.

    6) Return to your quoting tab and refresh the page.

    7) Repeat steps 2-6 until all posts from that person are quoted.

    ...there's probably an easier way to do this, but it's what works for me.

    Spoiler: Search Terms
    Show
    For some people, their name will be sufficient. Normally this is because their name is rather long, and is easy to shorten with a nickname, so people most often use shorthand to refer to them. If you were to Ctrl+F "AvatarVecna" in these threads, most of the hits you get will be my posts, rather than other people talking about me using my full handle (usually people will refer to me as "AV" or "Vecna", with "Vecna" being more likely if Aventine is also in the game). Good examples of this would be EmmyNecromancer (who is almost always called Emmy) or rogue_alchemist (who is almost always called either RA, or some version of his handle that doesn't include the underscore). This is not a good way to search for somebody like Rogan, whose name is short and easy to type, and is rather difficult to shorten further, so people tend to use their full name frequently.

    Another thing you can search for is stuff in their signature. Rogan might be hard to find via his name, but nobody else in basically any game of mafia is going to have "spoiler: I'm a seer" in their posts. Things like that - "Maat Mons" for my sig, "Legionary Of Protection" for Supagoof, "Rule number one: worship cookies!" for Book Wombat - can let you easily Ctrl+F for a particular person.

    Some people don't have signatures and have names that people tend to spell all the way out. Xihirli, Mr Popo, and Libro are all like this. And they can all be searched via their locations: "Behind you. Right now." for Xihirli, "The Lookout" for Mr Popo, and "Korprulu sector" for Libro. Libro in particular tends to be quiet, and gets talked about by others frequently, so you might search a page for "Libro", and find 20 people talking about Libro with no posts from the man himself. Just search for the sector, it works so much better.

    Final little trick: if you're trying to ISO yourself, and none of the above is really viable for whatever reason, Ctrl+F "Warnings/Infractions". That will only bring up your posts, because you can't see the warnings/infractions of other forum members under their names in every post, only your own. Fair warning, this last method only works if you're not a square.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  28. - Top - End - #298
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Have you not read my signature, AV?
    I’m hurt. You’ve been off and on it for years.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  29. - Top - End - #299
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Have you not read my signature, AV?
    I’m hurt. You’ve been off and on it for years.
    Your signature is useful if I open it, but I try not to open signature spoilers because it makes it harder to get from "searching for [blank]" to "clicking the multiquote button". and "spoiler: quotes" is something people will occasionally do when they're doing a bunch of quotes as a non-ISO. Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.

    EDIT: Forgot a method. You can sometimes search for "month/year" that the person joined the forum, but for whatever reason I usually end up in these games having people who joined around the same time as each other that screws this up, and the other methods are more fun and personal.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-14 at 07:53 PM.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  30. - Top - End - #300
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Look how much energy and fire town has right now.

    I just, it makes me so happy.

    Do you know how much this is crushing the wolf team's belief that they can win this game right now?

    If this list contains all townies the game is pretty well over:

    Mr Popo
    Libro
    AvatarVecna
    gac3
    Rogan
    Xihirli
    Batcathat
    (Bladescape
    JeenLeen)

    With a bonus funbucks townie of Rogue Alchemist, should he ever arrive and collect a free win.

    Whats funny is his win would be worth exactly as much as mine.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Your signature is useful if I open it, but I try not to open signature spoilers because it makes it harder to get from "searching for [blank]" to "clicking the multiquote button". and "spoiler: quotes" is something people will occasionally do when they're doing a bunch of quotes as a non-ISO. Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.

    EDIT: Forgot a method. You can sometimes search for "month/year" that the person joined the forum, but for whatever reason I usually end up in these games having people who joined around the same time as each other that screws this up, and the other methods are more fun and personal.
    There is just no way this isnt a townie.

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