A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #361
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Back then...
    WW games were running week after week, often with the option of being in a possible 4 games at a time. This lead me to be more active as I was, in a bunch of games, without family care as a part of the time.
    Bandwagons started with little logic, so I learned to be defensive first, solve next. Still a habit of mine
    "But being selfish is wolfy" - see point above. I have not adjusted to the "Solve first to be town" yet.
    Being defensive about being defensive? That's very meta if nothing else.

    That said, sticking to Snow despite me being the clear wolfy flavor of the day is... good, I guess? Unless you're just scared of Popo's ultimatum.

    Since it seems likely we'll be wagon one and two today, I should probably take a second look at your ISO. Though probably after I do Xi's, while I have a good feeling about her, I suppose she could be a wolf just coasting through the chaos.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    - - - Updated - - -

    Fine - Snowblaze is off for now.

    BatCatHat - AV's logic is very solid.
    Ah, nevermind then.

  2. - Top - End - #362
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Libro (Can be scum when the setup has no countess) 99 percent lock unless Goof is a miss.
    For that to be true, Countess would be in the discard pile. Two successful uses of Prince powers will get it into somebody's hand, regardless of who used the Prince power and who was targeted by the Prince power (excepting those targets that could cause an unsuccessful Prince'ing). Snowblaze claims to have Prince'd Xihirli (which I'd like confirmation on). That means if anybody else successfully used a prince power, the countess card has to be in play. Scum could not have gained the Countess card, so it would have to be in the hands of a townie. If a townie got the Countess card, they would've called Libro out. Given that no such callout has occurred, we can conclude that one of two things is true:

    1) Libro is telling the truth
    2) There has only been one successful use of the Prince power by both princes in total so far this game

    Emmy claims to have prince'd herself N1. If that's true, then Libro is clear, but we have no reason to trust Emmy. Additionally, if a second successful prince power usage can be confirmed, we'll be able to know for sure. Either somebody calls Libro out and we can thunderdome, or nobody does and Libro is 100% clear instead of 99% clear.

    Spoiler: literally illegal?
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    If Prince targets a member of scumteam, and the discard pile would indicate scum should draw Countess, does the Prince get an Error message similar to when they try to Prince the Princess, or would it skip the Countess card and give them the next one in line? I ask because Emmy claimed to Prince herself, and I was wondering what would happen if she did that and Countess was next in line.


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  3. - Top - End - #363
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Okay I read most of AV's thing and realized I have questions about the prince.

    If their are two unused roles and always will be two unused roles, which one does the prince target get? Or does the prince choose which of the two? Or are we saying that the prince power works exactly twice and never again?

  4. - Top - End - #364
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Okay I read most of AV's thing and realized I have questions about the prince.

    If their are two unused roles and always will be two unused roles, which one does the prince target get? Or does the prince choose which of the two? Or are we saying that the prince power works exactly twice and never again?
    Firstly, what I've said is true regardless of whether the Prince power removes the target's power from play forever, or just puts it in the discard pile. We started with 16 cards and 14 players, with two cards explicitly in the discard pile. We know the number of times each card shows up and it comes to exactly 16. The Countess has to be somewhere, so either it started the game in the hands of a town player, or it's in the unused pile, and one or two uses of the Prince power would put it in play (and then be unable to remove it from play).

    Secondly:

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Ability Interactions - Unused Role Example

    At the start of the game, there is a Guard who is unused.
    On Night 1, Alice (The Prince) forces Bob (The Baron) to take a new role. Carol (The Prince) chooses herself to take a new role.

    Both of the Princes have the same value, so the Narrator flips a coin to see whose power is used first. After the coin flip, Carol's ability resolves first.

    Carol's power resolves on Carol. Carol discards her card (The Prince) and receives the unused card (The Guard).
    Alice's power resolved on Bob. Bob discards his card (The Baron) and receives the unused card (The Prince).

    The Mafia receives the following feedback.
    "At night start, the unused role was The Guard. During the night, The Guard was assigned to a player and replaced by The Prince. Also, The Prince was assigned to a player and replaced by The Baron. The current unused role is the Baron."
    So the cards aren't gone forever if they get Prince'd away.

    Given that the example only has a single unused card, I'm not sure which order the Prince powers would put them into play, but the specifics don't matter. The order will be A then B, regardless of how A and B relate to each other. If Countess was A, one successful Prince power would put it into play. If Countess was B, two successful Prince powers would put it into play.

    EDIT: I've finished ISOing Popo's D1. aaaaaaaaaaaa
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-16 at 05:28 AM.


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  5. - Top - End - #365
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Assuming that it switches as stated and it's

    Unused Power A
    Unused Power B

    And The prince power goes ABABABAB

    You are right.

    But again, the example uses one unused power. So there is also always the chance that the answer to the question of A or B is random. Which means theoretically one of the two is not in play.

    However even with that being the case, I don't think there is any grounds to suspect Libro. Because if it's random and not patterned ABAB, then no countess would require AAA for the three uses so far. This seems unlikely to me, even in the most optimistic/pessimistic.

  6. - Top - End - #366
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Assuming that it switches as stated and it's

    Unused Power A
    Unused Power B

    And The prince power goes ABABABAB

    You are right.

    But again, the example uses one unused power. So there is also always the chance that the answer to the question of A or B is random. Which means theoretically one of the two is not in play.

    However even with that being the case, I don't think there is any grounds to suspect Libro. Because if it's random and not patterned ABAB, then no countess would require AAA for the three uses so far. This seems unlikely to me, even in the most optimistic/pessimistic.
    That's a fair point, if the assignment is random then we can't technically clear Libro basically ever.

    Altho one slight correction:

    Because if it's random and not patterned ABAB, then no countess would require AAA for the three uses so far.
    A key word in my post is "successful" uses. Unsuccessful uses don't change the target's power for whatever reason, and so they don't remove anything from the discard pile. If Snowblaze is telling the truth, then one of her power uses failed. If Emmy is lying, then we have no idea if the second Prince has used their power once, twice, or never.


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  7. - Top - End - #367
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    That's a fair point, if the assignment is random then we can't technically clear Libro basically ever.

    Altho one slight correction:



    A key word in my post is "successful" uses. Unsuccessful uses don't change the target's power for whatever reason, and so they don't remove anything from the discard pile. If Snowblaze is telling the truth, then one of her power uses failed. If Emmy is lying, then we have no idea if the second Prince has used their power once, twice, or never.
    Ah I see. I haven't fully caught up on the day yet. This post just caught my eye. That does increase the chances of a random feed resulting in Libro not being called out. However it would completely depend on the super unlikely scenario where the countess wasn't in use and (if we assume Emmy was telling the truth about her use) Xi to be the prince. If he's anything else now then either Emmy lied (quite possible but another prince could have called her out at this point and even if they did, I'm not sure it eliminations either other option), Snow lied (also possible if snow is wolf) or Libro is telling the truth. So I'm still well in camp of Libro being honest unless someone flips countess.

  8. - Top - End - #368
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Here's my thoughts on Xi. Obviously not my main concern at the moment, but I was going crazy trying to figure out a convincing argument (and I'm not sure there is one). I'll get back to it though, I'd rather live somewhat suspect than be cleared in death. Until then, if any other guards checked out Libro N1, please speak up.

    Spoiler: ISO on Xihirli
    Show
    I'm skipping all of the RP, if there's some message hidden in them it could just as well be the completely wrong one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Alright let's kill Libro it's been ages since the last good ol' rousing round of kill libro.
    Not much to say, it's not like either town or wolves had any idea Libro is the Countess at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    So it's now occurred to me that I was really into the idea of a love letter themed game not knowing that love letter is like... a show name or something. I just thought it was letters and I think I'm in a different setting than everyone else.
    Could be true regardless of alignment, probably is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Weighing in on the "reveal town roles" plan: This will always just feel unsporting to me. It's such an obvious move that a lot of games inspired by preexisting stories just don't have a mechanical way to prevent. Heck, I left Seto Kaiba out of Yu-Gi-Oh! purely to subvert the idea "she'd never leave THIS character out"
    Spoiler
    Show
    also the section of the story I was adapting had nothing to do with that windbag
    but a lot of games like this just can't have that option built in. This just feels like a move we should ladies' agreement out of.
    As I said at the time, I feel like protesting against something that seemed unfairly favorable for town would be more likely coming from a towny Xi than a wolfy Xi. But I suspect I might've let that influenced my opinion of Xi a little too much going forward, so I should probably try to ignore it right now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    mwahahaahaha

    More seriously, the Princess/Countess claim plan was what I was responding to. Mass claiming hadn't been brought up, so I guess I didn't feel the need to specify.
    Seems like a straight forward clarification.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Cao, can you define "Shakespearian?" There's a lot of variance there.
    RP focused. Makes sense considering her letters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    You're all princesses!

    Yes, we're all princesses!

    I'm not.

    Shh.
    Probably just joking around. This actually made me guess Xi as the Princess N2, since jokingly implying being the Princess while actually being the Princess seems like something she might do. As you can probably guess by now, she was not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    As much as I want to split Libro's head upon the rocks, the counterclaimer is usually right so let's kill Mr Popo... if such a feat can even be done.
    A reasonable vote at the time. Probably her first real contribution to finding the wolves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Okay, went to work and then sleep. Catching up, Popo became the lead lynch for a second then chimed in with a post essentially saying "I meant to fake-claim and get caught. It was all a clever ploy, you see."

    And that's fair enough I suppose. It did strike me as... a risk a wolf wouldn't need to take at this point. Now that's no guarantee, but ultimately I have decided to cross out my vote. If Popo sparks discussion and activity like this every day then every day we keep him alive is a good thing at least in that end.

    That said, I've not been pulled over to the JeenLeen wagon. Popo's got a lot of information going toward JeenLeen, excepting one crucial thing, and that is experience playing with Jeen. Now I've run a game that Jeen was playing in and I've been in games with them for... what, the last year? It's been a fair few. And I will take a second to say that Jeen always acts like this. Now, in Jeen's defense, or rather, not at all, he is also usually Neutral, so my town-read on him may be off, but looking at his behavior D1 in my Yu-Gi-Oh! game, it was full of statements like "I'll be up-front that I'm aware this totally can look like a wolf defending himself, but..." and "I don't want to answer this too fully -- I wrote up a lot of IF-THEN scenarios then deleted them..." ALMOST saying a lot of things. He also sort of bumbled around with the rules (misidentifying the Baner role, asking over the phase mechanics), and I say that as a proud bumbler around with the rules. Jeen learns by doing and doesn't usually hit his stride day one. His behavior today has been consistent with his town behavior.

    So I'm looking for alternate wagons.
    Defending Jeen turned out to be a good idea but could be a wolf trying for town cred. It feels like it doesn't really refute the main argument against Jeen, maybe intentionally?

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Sure, I’ll go for one. When in doubt, butcher the silent, right?

    EmmyNecromancer

    On mobile, else I would have included a letter fragment.
    A good vote, but could be the above in reverse, getting town cred if Emmy flips later but not really risking lynching her at this point.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
    counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?
    Not sure what to make of this. Kind of feels towny but I have nothing to back up my gut.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    No, I did. Hence the “is this a 500 IQ etc”
    Reasonable clarification.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    May I just disagree vehemently here? Very easy for a wolf to be like "ooh! town cred!" when a non-wolf is headed for death. If I'm a wolf, I know Jeen isn't. The fact that I was right is almost irrelevant to the soundness of my argument here.
    Good point, I wonder if that should count towards towny or wolfy?

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I'd be happy to join in on EmmyNecromancer since she apparently was online but isn't posting.
    Like if she's trying to fly under the radar, it's not working, but say something please.
    Voting Emmy again, this time with a much bigger chance of actually contributing to a lynch. So probably town? Though last game taught me that Xi have some good instincts for when to bus, so there's that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Well, I could be persuaded off of the "kill the silent" wagon as now Emmy is not silent. Supagoof's RL stuff could very well be true but that doesn't make him not a wolf.
    Though I do also feel weird about apparently getting a Night Action from Emmy but no chat until just now. Words speak louder than actions, as they say.
    Could be sincere, could be a wolf looking for an excuse to back off.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Two posts.
    But yeah, the quality of the posts and the information on them has not persuaded me to switch votes even though the reason has changed.
    Not taking the chance to back off though. Could be she felt she couldn't do so convincingly, but that might be overthinking it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    That's not really the way I think. I have a top one scumread (Emmy) and since I think I've got one I'm good for now. If that lynch becomes nonviable I'll refocus and try a new one, but that's not really coming up right now. I'll pick the next target later, but I already have this one.
    is that enough of a peek into my psyche?
    I don't really like this, both for not wanting to provide other suspects and seeming a little unnecessarily defensive.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Saying that I didn't change my stance on Emmy. I have not moved my vote, and have put up a few posts indicating my renewed resolve to leave it where it is even before I was pressured on it. I can be persuaded to switch to Supagoof if an Emmy wagon becomes no longer viable, that is not the same as saying that I have changed my mind.
    This feels better. Maybe still a little defensive but I think the reasoning is sound.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I’m picturing the conspiracy board with the thumbtack strings mounted on the pelt of Slowmara up in Kami’s Lookout.
    I envisioned more of a hacker cave aestetic but to each their own.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Have you not read my signature, AV?
    I’m hurt. You’ve been off and on it for years.
    This mostly reminds me that I apperantly need to keep an eye on people's signatures. I must've gone over BW's posts five times trying to find what AV was looking for and then it wasn't even in the thread.


    Overall, I think I might lean a little more wolfy on Xi (there was a few things I didn't like in the posts and I feel like I might've overvalued a few of my "this seems like something wolf Xi would/wouldn't do" considering I don't know her that well) but still mostly towards town.

  9. - Top - End - #369
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Ah I see. I haven't fully caught up on the day yet. This post just caught my eye. That does increase the chances of a random feed resulting in Libro not being called out. However it would completely depend on the super unlikely scenario where the countess wasn't in use and (if we assume Emmy was telling the truth about her use) Xi to be the prince. If he's anything else now then either Emmy lied (quite possible but another prince could have called her out at this point and even if they did, I'm not sure it eliminations either other option), Snow lied (also possible if snow is wolf) or Libro is telling the truth. So I'm still well in camp of Libro being honest unless someone flips countess.
    I am as well. I just wanted to lay out the only situation in which Libro could really be guilty. It's unlikely as hell, and even if it were the case, it would require us to be both very unlucky and require the princes to barely used their powers. Even if it started in the discard, and even if it's a cointoss which discard gets prince'd into play, we can only lose that coin toss so many times. I have no idea why Libro is considered less townish than me.


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  10. - Top - End - #370
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I have WiFi. Present and correct, for a little longer at least.

    It took me far too long to twig exactly how incriminating the Batcathat thing is (I thought a Handmaid might have targeted Mr Popo, but then realised he was Baroned (are we just turning all the roles into verbs now?) so that couldn't have happened. My gut still says there are town!BCH worlds but I don't think this is when I should listen to it.

    (Also I didn't like their reaction to my claim - I'm their top suspect so I'd expect them as town to be thinking "what if she's lying" rather than "aw, I could have had a better role".)

    My day two sucked even worse than I thought, then, if I miscleared a wolf on top of everything else. I still have tinfoil thoughts on other people but I don't think I need to go there rn. I'll reread the game and see whether there's anything that contradicts the possibility of a Supagoof/Batcathat team.

    Also I fixed my RP problems.

    Spoiler: RP
    Show

    Her father was dead. The Princess desperately ill. She was suspected of being a conspirator. The servant bit her lip, hard. She wasn't going to cry. She had to fix this, now.

    Best to come clean, she supposed. She glanced around the room, raised one hand to her hood, and threw it back. Beneath was her thick, wavy raven hair, the unmistakable mark of the royal family of Nocturne.

    She had their attention now. "I am Pr - " she'd imagined this moment for so long, she'd almost forgotten she was a prince no longer. "King Snowblaze of Nocturne. I received the tragic news of my father's death- " her voice didn't wobble - "early this morning."

    Deep breath. Keep going. Explain everything. "I have long heard rumours of the beauty of your Princess. I wished to see if she was as fair of mind and heart as of body. If she would have me as her bride, and one day rule beside me. So I came to your court not as myself but as a servant, thinking that would let me judge the character of Her Highness. But then this dreadful conspiracy unveiled itself."

    Pause. Breathe. "I am deeply sorry for what has happened, for all those you have lost. But I swear, I am not part of the conspiracy. And I will help you, if I can, to find them and bring them to justice."


    Not sure what I'll do once I king someone else tonight, though!

    Supagoof...

    And now, a few other thoughts.
    For my point on Snowblaze above, the Mafia is not it's own role. I find is highly sus that your plan to "king Snowblaze" and block the wolf kill, "if not - then it's gotta be Supagoof", to be a a wrong plan in the solve. If the assumption is 3+ mafia, then 2+ left means blocking 1 won't stop a kill since the other can perform it. And the more obvious thing is - it's clearly written in the first post that specific action will not work. See quote above.
    I... cannot see where anyone said that was their plan? What exactly are you replying to here?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Rereading the context a bit, it sounds like Supagoof is claiming that someone suggested I was clear because I was kinged and so couldn't have performed the kill. No-one said that unless I'm completely missing something.
    Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-09-17 at 12:52 AM.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 6
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 4
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 7

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  11. - Top - End - #371
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    It took me far too long to twig exactly how incriminating the Batcathat thing is (I thought a Handmaid might have targeted Mr Popo, but then realised he was Baroned (are we just turning all the roles into verbs now?) so that couldn't have happened. My gut still says there are town!BCH worlds but I don't think this is when I should listen to it.
    And here I was ready to ease up on my suspicion of you if you kept defending me, on the logic that while talking up a townie can make sense from a wolf perspective, actively fighting to stop a mislynch seems a bit extreme. I won't hold agreeing with the accusation against you though, AV's case is annoyingly good.

    Snowblaze then.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    (Also I didn't like their reaction to my claim - I'm their top suspect so I'd expect them as town to be thinking "what if she's lying" rather than "aw, I could have had a better role".)
    I think you might be overanalyzing a joke. Or using it to fuel the fire a little bit more, I suppose.
    Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-17 at 01:24 AM.

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Stepping in to clarify a couple things:

    Unused Roles

    Since there are two unused roles, they are assigned in a First In First Out method. So if the Guard and Priest are unused, and one Prince was used, the first player would become the Guard and their role would become unused, filling back behind the Priest. When the next Prince is used, the Priest would be assigned and a new role would fill in from the back. (This is the ABAB method that someone described earlier. It is not random.).

    If the Countess is next to be assigned and a Mafia member is targeted, I will skip the Countess and assign the next available role (if the unused are Countess and Guard, the Mafia member would get the Guard).

    If the Countess and Princess are the two unused roles, then the Prince ability would not work on the Mafia member.



    King blocking

    As someone pointed out, the King doesn't stop Mafia kills. It was intended somewhat like the Guards in that it only focuses on the Role. Yes, it weakens the King and if I were to run the setup again I'd reconsider, but for this game the King will not block mafia kills, just stop role stuff from happening.





    If y'all have any other mechanical questions, let me know. I realize the roles, especially the role swapping, can be complicated. How those are intended to function should be transparent - I would rather you guys be trying to figured out who is mafia/town rather than being confused on how mechanical stuff works.

  13. - Top - End - #373
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Oh, I’d inflicted pain before as I’m sure you’re aware, but this was more... actively malicious.
    I don’t know if I ever loved him.



    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Sure. Started off as a Prince, targeted Xihirli night one (on the grounds that I had no clue what to do with my role and I figured she wouldn't mind the chaos), tried to target Batcathat last night but was kinged (which must have been you; incidentally you've now ruined all of my RP plans) and I also have a QT with Xihirli now.
    Can confirm, I was guarded. Turned into a guard.
    That may also explain why Libro could be targeted night 1, I was a handmaid. Sorry for not saying earlier, the part where the swap acts as a roleblock is one I only just read.

    Though I guess we just don’t know Wombat’s targets. Or if they were something different before.

    Looking at Snowblaze, she’s behaving the way she has in the past when town. Open to being proven wrong, after all I believe the king can be a wolf and lying just now wouldn’t be a good wolf move, but I’m reading Snow as town.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

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    Jan 2014

    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    First off: this ISO is a little different. Instead of trying to figure out which way a post makes me lean on Popo (because Popo is good enough that I should be leaning town on all of it), I'm going to go in assuming Popo is scum and seeing what explanations I can pull out of the post. Why would scum!Popo write this, or that? That kind of approach. Sort of a "proof by disproof" if you will.

    Second off: when I've done big ISOs in the past that required multiple posts, I either need somebody to post in between, or I need to wait an hour in between posting the separate parts. Otherwise, the forum will try to merge the posts via an "updated" line, and it'll be too large for one post. This is a three-parter (because I stopped a little ways into N2 after having enough material), so I'll get parts 2 and 3 up when the forum allows it.

    Spoiler: Mr Popo ISO part 1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    All right, Go-scape. Popo's about to teach you the pecking order. It goes: you, the dirt, the worms inside of the dirt, Popo's stool, Caoimhin, and then Popo. You're lucky you're endearing.

    Spoiler
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    "Hypeebolah Mime Chamber"
    "Hyperglycemic Crime Chamber"
    "Hypeebonic Shrine Chamber"

    You get one more.

    "Hypertonic Lion Tamer"

    Go-scape? smack




    That would be my wife's favorite member of BTS. Kpop is not my jam but it keeps the missus happy.

    Spoiler
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    "Jynx! Jynx! Jynx!"




    Gravestones in rows and ghost towns quite eerie
    Broken old buildings and caskets so dreary
    Desiccated corpses strung up with strings
    These are a few of my favorite things

    Ash covered bones, a blood covered carcass
    Church bells and funerals and robots named Markus.
    Effigies burnt, and Detroit when it's spring
    These are a few of my favorite things

    When the dog bites....
    (OUCH)
    When the bee stings............ (I'm allergic.)
    When I'm feeling sad...

    (single tear)


    By the way, Mr Popo is the count (gender corrected. I am MISTER Popo) in case anyone cares. I figure we should probably start mass claiming.

    I'll start, because I figure this will keep the disloyal maggots off balance.

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    Great minds think alike I suppose. You can be my first town read for the mindmeld.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I would actually prefer the Princess not reveal until there is some silly wagon on her. With ample time remaining in a round, of course. But why give the disloyal maggots that info? That one is self resolving and it is better if they don't know for sure where to look.

    Protect the Princess for longer by not giving them our Princess. She can fake claim whatever she wants and still never get executed.

    We can mass claim and be smart about it. And/or just leave the claims at just my claim for now.

    One a day, perhaps? A claim per day is a good slow release of info. Maybe two, particularly when someone is strongly suspected.

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    I am not quite sure I fully comprehend this setup. I can't tell if it's the acid or not.

    But after I am done watering my pots, I am going to suggest perhaps that mass claiming is actually a bad idea in retrospect, because there are roles in the game that seem to be able to steal powers or switch powers or what have you.

    I haven't really played a setup with such a role so it never even occurred to me that this might be a danger.

    It's probably better if those with useful (?) abilities not claim so as not to have their power stolen by the Prince I think it is.

    Skimming.

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    Not entirely sure how useful any of these powers are. It seems like there's going to be a lot of missing information or wrong information due to the role switching and mass amounts of the equivalent of roleblocking.

    So the usual solve by spreadsheet stuff is probably ill advised here. Just find disloyal maggots using your Earthling brains and see how it goes. Claim the info you get when you get enough of it to make it worth claiming.

    Otherwise, treat it like a vanilla game with an innocent child more or less. Protect the innocent child and keep her hidden until late game if possible.

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    Unless you all really think it's worthy of discussion I think it is good to table the mechanics and role discussion for now.

    Just seems like a dead end and a distraction from the more important thing which is to find loyal minions for the Princess and disloyal maggots for the rope.
    Joking around to endear himself to a town not yet familiar with his style. He knows the plan isn't great for town, because Princess and Countess are guaranteed town, and have the highest rank (8 and 7 respectively). That means that when they're the wagons, the tie rules favor them (and thus, favor town). Getting a princess to endgame greatly reduces scum chances of victory, so the sooner princess/countess can be eliminated, the better. The first step of that is hunting them down, and if they're willing to claim? All the better.

    Popo knows the Countess isn't going to go along with this plan (not necessarily because the Countess has realized all the above, but because claiming D1 as a martyr requires a much more persuasive argument than Snowblaze was making)...which makes it harder for scumteam to solve the game and off the princess in a timely fashion. The way to actually force the Countess to claim is via a counterclaim.

    Popo claims Countess to draw out the counterclaim, leads mechanical discussion away from endgame and ties and more about the principle of telling scum where power roles are (in a game where everybody is sort of a power role), and now has two built-in defenses for when the inevitable counterclaim and wagon come crashing down on him:

    1) "I wasn't seriously claiming Countess, I was claiming while talking about how claims are a very bad move, it's not supposed to be taken seriously."

    2) "Oh come on, you really think scum would claim Countess, when they know full well that the Countess role is in play? There's no way I knew that early on that we'd have two inactive players, and even then it's just luck if they happen to the be the Countess! Scum would know they were going to get counterclaimed, why would I do that?" This is the essence of Too Wolfy To Be Wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    It matters not. Neither of us is the cat this time. I doubt you will be the bringer of my end in either manner of passing because I too have respect for your considerable abilities.

    I doubt you are either disloyal or so foolish.
    Scum!Popo practically admitting he's going to NK bladescape first out of respect for their skills in scumhunting and their knowledge of Popo's tricks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I am willing to arrest Vecna at this time. While certainly formidable as a deity, I believe this planet already has a god of destruction and death.

    Spoiler
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    Of those accusing Vecna, I have a mixed read on Jeen, and if Vecna were to be disloyal I would feel better about Jeen. The big picture looks okay, but picking the wording apart gives me concerns. Rogan is fine for now, but that's not a read. That's a blind guess based on scary genie magic and little more. Reasons for voting Vecna are thin.

    "is allways a good day 1 target
    had one vote already"

    Is not great.

    "And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 amuses me" is particularly poor.

    If Vecna had anything going for them, I would look at both votes for Vecna with a suspicious eye and actually defend Vecna, despite my distaste for the undead. Lo, they are sick icky things and must be cleansed with holy fire.

    Vecna:

    As for who Vecna is accusing, I distrust the accusation of Libro, who I have no special reason to care about other than it is possible they are loyal despite being tardy. Of the things Vecna is doing, none of those read as being loyal.

    Given the relatively short time remaining in the first Day, I would advise Vecna that they may die today unless they reverse opinions and if they are going to claim it should be sooner rather than later.

    If it happens at the last minute, there are a very narrow set of circumstances where I would move my vote.

    Alternatives:

    Not Snowblaze,
    Not Bladescape,
    Not Xihirli at present
    Not BattheCat at present,
    Not anyone who has posted zero times.

    Gac3, perhaps, but an abundance of caution leads me to reserve judgment.


    My notebook is open, you can read it if you wish. I care not.
    Distrusts me for "distrusting Libro for no reason", even though it's a randvote, that's just how votes work this early in D1. Dollars to donuts, he sees people joking about voting me out of principle and thinks I'm one of the more dangerous players (even if none of us are anywhere near truly dangerous by his standards). I did a single post and left, and I've already got a wagon on me, so he votes me "because he's voting Libro and I have no reason to distrust Libro" (which, if Popo is town, is the same kinda "vote-as-a-result-of-fearmongering" that he later called Rogan cruel for doing).

    Despite so far pushing for people to not claim in general, is apparently so convinced the wagon on me is already locked in that it's appropriate to start pushing me for a claim. Sure, it could be he had confidence in the wagon. But it's easy for scum!Popo to make a three-person wagon this early look a lot more solid than it actually is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    If you can point me to what you find noteworthy about it I will give you an opinion. Right now I am distracted and am not seeing what would be actionable.

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    Looks down, sees rather indicative genitalia.

    Yes.

    I am pretty sure that you shouldn't be arrested and executed today simply because you were late.

    I think it is in our best interests not to mass claim at this time, though as I said (look back) I think Snowblaze is town for her suggestion. I reached the conclusion that we should not be mass claiming shortly after seeing her post.

    She thinks she can break the game open with her plan. While I think it can be helpful to know where not to look, it also just hands the disloyal people our more powerful roles. I consider that to be unwise at this time since we seem to lack a doctor (baner, protector, whatever your term is) for anyone but the Princess.

    No worries, Libro. I won't let anything happen to you while you are asleep.

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    In fact, Libro, if you would assist me in exorcising the Lich-god Vecna, I would be quite in your debt.

    Should Vecna flip disloyal, I am willing to lock you "loyal" for the remainder of the game.

    If you have an alternative suggestion that is not myself, I am wholly obligated to listen to you very closely.
    Mr Popo has already stuck his neck out for Libro as part of his "argument" to vote me, so when Libro shows up, of course Mr Popo claims he doesn't want Libro dead and is townreading him based on basically nothing. What's actually going on in this post is that Mr Popo 100% knew that Libro was counterclaiming, but wasn't reacting properly on the off-chance that Libro would be so low-activity (per my insinuations about Libro in my one post) and that he wouldn't get counterclaimed until much later. The best case scenario for scumteam is that they know who the Countess/Princess are, but town doesn't. A counterclaim would generally mean everybody knows who Countess is, but if Libro is only soft-counterclaiming, town might have trouble putting the pieces together, while scum knows exactly what's going on.

    Now that Libro is active in the thread but hasn't quite fully counterclaimed him, Popo's goal is now to convince Libro he doesn't need to counterclaim. That means convincing Libro that the claim wasn't serious, which means Popo needs to make many unserious claims. Popo gets the idea that if it worked once, maybe he can repeat his trick using a Princess claim, potentially luring out a soft counterclaim (or even a hard one), all while being able to say "I was just joking around, everybody could tell" when people ask him why he was fakeclaiming princess; this also works for if Libro ends up counterclaiming him more explicitly.

    But there's no way a plan like that ever takes off, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Well, they can't fake claim Countess anymore, because there definitely is a person of that rank in the game, given what you have already seen here today. Who that person is shall truly remain a mystery for the ages.



    And it would be my pleasure to give my life for the cause of the Princess and all her loyal partners of lesser rank. It's sort of what I do. Don't worry about me, I am still the most powerful being in the multiverse. I'll be fine.

    I punched a god of death in the face on day one. Clearly I must be packing something ballsy in these pants.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I have an idea, let's not systematically give hints as to who the Princess is not.

    As far as I am concerned, everyone is the Princess, including me.

    And if you imply you're not, I would like a few words with your corpse at sundown.

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    Yes, that is my bad. I live in a timezone that is different.

    But still, I don't have a ton of time during day and the Day is half over and we're missing a lot of activity, and lots of folks don't ever check back in.

    It's far easier to be disloyal when the loyal persons are uncoordinated and scattered throughout the day and/or not here.
    Literally the next two posts, and Popo is building up exactly the arguments that scum!Popo would want to build up here: that no scum would ever claim Countess if they knew there was a counterclaim imminent, that Popo is the princess, and that Popo is obviously not actually the princess, can't you see that he was joking? This is textbook Schrodinger's Douchebag, where he decides whether he was joking or not based on the reaction to his 'joke'.

    (And this isn't me calling him a douchebag, that's just the name I know associated with that concept.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    To help, the snowy person who is also on fire asked the Countess to claim, and then I immediately did so in a cross post that I was already making when she asked.

    This can be found on the previous page, and is why the identity of the Countess shall remain a mystery for the ages. Is it Mr Popo, who is clearly a person of masculine persuasion? According to the roles given out this game by the game host, I am forced to agree that I am now a lady person.

    However, in case that's wrong, I am also the Princess who is hiding in plain sight, because I don't like giving hints to the disloyal maggots where I am and am not, and I would like to encourage others not to in the likely event of my own demise where I can't protect the Princess anymore, who is me probably.
    Popo refuses to commit while pretending it's for townie reasons. The truth is that he refuses to commit because he wants to have the options of having his cake as well as the option of eating it, so that he's town's golden boy no matter which way the wind blows. Posts like this aren't about ferreting out townies, it's about creating paths to safety for Popo in case town turns on him for fakeclaiming locktown roles. He wants the respect that comes with the claim, but also the protection of claiming 'as a joke' in case he gets called out on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    That's not how I read it at all. If Libro were counterclaiming me they would have said so. More likely, they don't think anyone but a wolf would just start claiming stuff for no reason and promoting a mass claim, which is terrible in this setup. If Libro were a wolf they would welcome such a mass claim.

    They just have to keep looking and they will see I explicitly said it was a bad idea and that no one else should claim today, otherwise it becomes easy to narrow down where the Princess is.

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    It is an honor to meet you, my lady.

    I, too, am a pretty pretty Princess.

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    JeenLeen is moving off of the avatar of death and destruction and voting for the most villagery person in the game, who happens to be my twin sister, the Princess.

    I am not sure that's an optimal move for a member of either faction, to be really frank.
    First part is where he insists that Libro isn't counterclaiming. Does that...seem like the Mr Popo we've gotten to know this week? Do you think that town!Popo was fakeclaiming Countess, saw Libro ask "are you sure about that" with a smirking smiley, and honest-to-god thought "Libro is asking if I'm sure about what's in my trousers, not asking if I'm sure about my role". No. Popo knows full well what Libro was doing, and this right here is him trying to convince town that Libro wasn't actually counterclaiming him (on the off-chance Libro comes back and actually commits this time).

    Second part is where Snowblaze sees Mr Popo's princess claim as non-serious and jokingly responds in kind. The meme that could save Popo from the lynch is starting to spread, so he dutifully propagates it further.

    Third part is where JeenLeen moves off my wagon. Once more, we have to call Mr Popo's competence into question here. Does he just...not know how early D1 votes work? People roll dice, people vote as community jokes, people vote based on positioning in the player list, people vote themselves. Popo seems to see them all as seriously meant, as if anybody has anything to go on when nobody has posted anything substantial. Popo says he's voting me because I voted Libro for bad reasons. When JeenLeen leaves me wagon, Mr Popo says "I am not sure that's an optimal move for a member of either faction, to be really frank", as if abandoning your early D1 randvote isn't a perfectly normal thing that literally everybody does every single game. He's talking like he sees this as proof of a Jeen/AV pairing, and yet by the end of the day he's townreading us both just in time to be right and not get called out on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I know I am being vague about everything else, but I am still the Count. That is and was my claim.

    But like, everyone is also the Princess. It's a funny thing, that. You would think that the game host was trolling us, but we are definitely all Princesses as well as our real roles.

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    This was supposed to be above previous.
    Popo is SDing to dodge the lynch no matter what happens, and hiding behind generic townie reasons for doing so.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I think this is correct but to be sure one need only refer to the first post of the game.



    Hi Batcathat, can I interest you in a dead lich today? I mean, they're already dead, we're just going to make them another kind of dead, which is arrested.

    Take that, "god" of destruction. You're in a castle dungeon cell. I know you can teleport, but that's the plan we're going with.

    Spoiler
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    Personally I kind of like to dunk them in "holy water", aka Popo's urine. Sacre-licious!
    With JL abandoning my wagon, Popo wants to try and get that pressure back on me, that way he can either get an easy mislynch if I don't show up, or an easy claim if I do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Ok, listen Android 16, I know you want to kill Libro and only Libro all day every day, but if you take a look at Vecna for a moment, you will see that Vecna is an undead abomination comprised of 10.78% of Son Libro's DNA.

    I trust that if you scan them, you will find that these parameters are acceptable.

    Besides, I have it on good authority that Libro is a one post wonder and clearly loyal to the Princess this game, which is also Libro.

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    I prefer finding arguments that lead to the arrest and exile of disloyal persons.

    I find the game is easier to solve when the disloyal persons are already rounded up and in prison.

    Can I re-interest you in a re-death for the un-dead abomination Vecna who is at the very least not clearly and obviously loyal to the crown?
    Pressure for easy mislynch or easy claim. Popo is remarkably consistent once you look at his posts in isolation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    For reference, here is the avatar of death voting for obviously loyal one post wonder Libro.

    Between the two of them, I literally always hit Vecna.

    If Jeen would like to push the Avatar of Death into an early prison cell, Popo could use the extra muscle. This one might put up a fight.

    Because like, if Jeen is loyal, that would be helpful to me, and if he is disloyal, I like putting disloyal people in the position of helping me arrest their fellow conspirators, and then giving them absolutely zero town credit for doing so.

    That is what makes Mr Popo laugh and laugh.
    "Obviously loyal" based on his one post so far, with similar length and content to my own contributions despite me being "obviously disloyal". The only "evidence" for guilt or innocence at this point is Popo's gut feelings about a few people. Supagoof was locktown because gac was lockscum, AV is lockscum because Libro is locktown, but when you get to the core of it, there's never any actual reasons given. He's simultaneously trying to hold a plank of wood at waist height and insisting it's a table that has legs to stand on, while also trying to squeeze his way into Libro's pocket in case he shows up again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I will answer all your questions as you return the favor. Who is the "we" you refer to here?

    You can speak for yourself and only yourself unless you have a chat with disloyal teammates. I will thank you not to imply that you speak for the Princess and all her loyal subjects, my dear sweet Princess. If it please you, m'Lady, of course.

    Now then. Literally all loyal people know something that every other loyal person does not.

    That is the nature of both this setup, and also, every single game of mafia in existence.

    If you care to make a case against Mr. Popo, I will advise you to make sure it is based on Mr. Popo doing or saying something that loyal persons shouldn't do, shouldn't know, or shouldn't be voting for. With reasons as to why.

    Unless, of course, you like for games to end with intelligent and active loyal townspersons dying early and then struggling to find wolves and consensus and votes and activity for the remainder of play, which, the last time I was here, was a major problem town always had.



    I strongly dislike openly taunting Vecna by saying let's get rid of them day one every game.

    I haven't played with Vecna in many, many years. Regardless of their alignment I refuse to mistreat them this way this game.

    I do believe the vote on Vecna was a hit anyway, and despite my severe reservations with both of you, I think Jeen and yourself voted correctly already.

    Now you're going off on tinfoil adventures and one of you is proposing arguments which can apply to literally every player who ever has an idea at all about how town should act in general.

    I do not believe this is wise or strong villaging, but I can only speak for myself, and what I know about this game from my privileged position of being the Count (absolutely) the Princess (as a metaphor for the fact that we shouldn't be disclaiming being the Princess at all, especially en masse on day one), a loyal townsperson.

    Vecna is currently voting for a townie, on reasons that you give when you're a wolf, and skating through the day.

    I also do not want anyone to get the wise idea that we should waste the day on someone who is not here and also has done zero disloyal things and has not posted and may never claim in time.
    Rogan: "Why do you think Vecna is scum?"

    Popo: "Because Libro is town, and the reason he gave is a scummy reason. No, I won't explain why Libro is town or why AV's vote reasoning is scummy, because then I'd either have to admit that I don't know how randvoting works, or I'd have to admit that I do, and I'd also have to put a case together for trusting Libro that can pass scrutiny."

    So as you can see, when Popo said "I will answer all your questions as you return the favor", he was lying. I'm pretty sure he was also lying when he said that he hasn't played with me in many years, because I can't recall ever playing with Mr Popo.

    "I also do not want anyone to get the wise idea that we should waste the day on someone who is not here and also has done zero disloyal things and has not posted and may never claim in time."

    Even tho he's basically doing literally exactly that. Up until I showed up some two days into our three day timeframe for D1, Popo was pushing me off a single randvote and acting as if he'd used that to solve the game.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I feel additional votes here, one or two, would be a powerful motivator.

    If anyone is lost or confused, and wants for day one to not just be mechanics talk and making grand plans to confirm townies are town by arresting townies, Popo and Rogan are currently voting for someone who has a much higher chance of being disloyal than almost anyone else.
    Easy mislynch or easy claim.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Spoiler: In order of how many posts they have
    Show
    Mr Popo- Easily the most loyal, being both of the roles this game that can only be loyal.

    Rogan- Probably voted a disloyal person today for reasons which never come from their disloyal buddy.

    Batcathat- Probably loyal at this point, given a read of everything they've done and why.

    Snowblaze- Easily the second most loyal person today, having hard claimed to be the actual Princess, and proposing a plan which would destroy us all, for absolutely pro-town reasons and thought processes. This is not even sarcasm. This only comes from loyal people.

    JeenLeen- Every post makes me question his loyalty, and I will vote here if this assessment does not change and I also cannot arrest Vecna, who until recently, Jeen was keen to imprison.

    Xihirli- At this point is also obviously quite loyal to the crown, and probably the prettiest of the princesses so far.

    gac3- I would never hit here today unless like 12 other people were off the table, which is a significant improvement over previous mainly due to their acting just like a lost puppy which I imagine most loyal people feel like at the moment. Except Popo.

    bladescape- is a shining example of absolutely loyal villageriness despite being mostly a paperweight so far. Wait until he gets going.

    Book Wombat- Not today thanks.

    Supagoof- Really not today, thanks. Also imagine this is a step down from teal, not quite teal yet.

    Libro- Literally never arrest this person under any circumstances, never rescind.

    AvatarVecna- kill it with cleansing holy fire.

    Everyone who zero posted- those are the breaks. Fortunately a disloyal person already posted and it was so bad we can kill it with cleansing holy fire right now without smacking about loyal people and forcing them to claim on day one when they have done nothing wrong except being slankers.


    So I have 6 people you absolutely never vote for and three strong guesses for townies on top of those, plus a desire not to vote a zero poster, currently Emmy and Rogue.

    I would wager literally all of my teal villagers that at least one of Emmy and Rogue are also loyal to town.

    I refuse to hit any of those names today.

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    You do what you feel is best for town, and so shall I.



    Yeah, Bladescape can describe for how what a walking horror I am to wolf teams, if you must know.

    Or you can sit back and see.

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    I have a message here for the disloyal persons. Top secret, for your eyes only.

    Spoiler: Only disloyal persons may enter here
    Show
    There is exactly precisely one difference between my content at this point and Libro's: Libro soft-counterclaimed Mr Popo.

    And then Mr Popo locktowned Libro while pretending the counterclaim wasn't real and trying to head off any wagon that a proper counterclaim would cause. Libro was getting pocketed, and I was getting thrown under the bus for easy points towards winning.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I am a little fuzzy on the math, but in a 14'er like this, 8 townies may not be sufficient because it is only one more than half, and one of those rounds come endgame is no arrest and wait in the worst possible case scenario.

    So you need an extra villager because of the extremely pro-disloyal even number advantage the traitorous maggots have.

    I have 9 townies instead of 8, which means you can no arrest later in the game if I was extremely wrong.

    As long as all 9 of those names are town we win.

    If someone wants to tell me which if any of those names are not town I am now open to hearing that, as a conversation starter.

    I have proposed a theory. Now, as my peers, you review it, and tell me why it is wrong if it is.

    Being a fair judge here, I probably have gac3 too high and that one is probably the only actual danger of going deep, because I wanted a 9th name and was excited to think of a reason why gac was town.

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    This is my methodology and applies to my reads and my role this game.

    Spoiler
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    Everyone else can do as they will, but I intend to convince all of you that the blues are town and not to be touched, and the teals are beyond consideration for the foreseeable future unless I am very wrong.

    You can consider the blue names in the event the POE (process of elimination) list hits townies a lot. Never is a long time and also not applicable when the POE is very wrong.

    Otherwise, you do not rearrange the POE without extremely strong reasons.

    It forces the disloyal people into the uncomfortable position of needing to murder people who are not optimal murders simply because they can't arrest them.



    Since I have claimed two roles it seems silly to counterclaim me as I am obviously lying about one or both claims. Besides, I also claimed a role that isn't even in the game.

    No town points for it anymore, but people can tell me why I did that if they want.


    I strongly encourage everyone not to follow that plan, but you're all autonomous beings.


    Generally you need positive reasons why someone is guilty as opposed to a lack of reasons why they are innocent, because I am afraid innocent people are often not particularly good at generating bulletproof reasons why they are town.

    Particularly when they aren't here.


    In addition to being lock town when Vecna is not, you are also independently villagery for your distrust of me in particular and suspicion that I have falsely claimed and that it must be wolfy of me. You remind me of nearly everyone I have ever met who has played with me for the first time.



    BatCatHat is snug as a bug in a rug in my town list. There is just no disloyal agenda about any of their posts.



    This is a guessing game. It's better to be lucky and accurate than skilled and whiffing it.



    Despite an extreme difference in styles, you can be the lawful Rogan to my chaotic Popo.

    You shall be the paladin in shining armor who fights evil the proper way, and I shall be the distrustful sneaky rogue that sneaks up behind evil liches and stabs them with magic daggers.

    While they're busy fighting you properly I will make them regret looking at you at all.


    Meanwhile, if all votes on Libro could vanish, that'd be pretty gosh darned swell.
    "Being a fair judge here, I probably have gac3 too high and that one is probably the only actual danger of going deep, because I wanted a 9th name and was excited to think of a reason why gac was town."

    More SDing. He thinks gac is town, but is willing to "admit" it's because he got over-excited...you know, willing under the circumstances where too many people disagree with him.

    "In addition to being lock town when Vecna is not, you are also independently villagery for your distrust of me in particular and suspicion that I have falsely claimed and that it must be wolfy of me. You remind me of nearly everyone I have ever met who has played with me for the first time."

    Pocketing. Like seriously, this is some pretty hefty brown-nosing going on. For how solid Popo feels about Rogan here, it's so strange how later Rogan would be Popo's third-pick for the D2 vote. And then later still, Rogan is once again townread. Top 10 Mysteries Even Batman Can't Explain /s

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Very quickly:

    I have the same thought you have about there being 3 traitors, but to my dismay, I cannot remember where I read that or if I even did read it.

    The OP also suggests it can be 3 4 or 5.

    I literally had the same certainty you do about it being 3, so this is explicitly not an accusation of perfect info.

    Rogan, where were we told it was 3? We had to have been told it was three, right?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also it is 2am here as well and I am in for a miserable day if I dont get a 4 hour nap.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Things you can tell from my posts already:

    1) I am confident in my abilities and I have experience.
    2) I believe in this methodology and have probably used it many, many times before, and most of those times have to be successful in order for me to be both sane and confident it works.
    3) At the same time, yes, we will guess wrong in a guessing game. Therefore:

    I have used this methodology before and let a wolf into my town. Yep.

    That's happened. It's even happened a lot of times, in fact.

    In having tasted nasty defeat even after pouring out my guts trying to build town teams without infiltration, I have gotten smoked enough times to have the wisdom to know when the town pile is worthy of being protected and when the town pile has to be discussed.

    As indicated, you react to new (and therefore additional) info, by adding it together with what you already know, and you make better decisions based on the new, superior information.

    However, if I hit wolves repeatedly over the next round(s) with my suspicions, then alive or dead, I will continue to advise sticking to the POE for a while.

    Re-evaluate when things go full blown Yamcha, and probably not before.

    Things would have to go remarkably bad for blues to ever be considered here.
    And yet we come to last night, with Popo pushing Snowblaze and Supagoof to thunderdome, while constantly insisting that game is going great for town. But of course, that matches up with the first part:

    "I have gotten smoked enough times to have the wisdom to know when the town pile is worthy of being protected and when the town pile has to be discussed."

    By Popo's own words, you can't trust him when he says he reads X player as Y alignment, when he says how strong that read is, when he says how good the game is going, when he says how solid his towncore is. A willingness to react to his mistakes is admirable, but when it's constantly hidden behind camouflage of extreme confidence that he's always right even when he's messed up a couple times? Literally the first thing he said D3 was "actually I changed my mind about Book Wombat in the middle of the night and didn't say anything". It comes across like an unwillingness to admit to his own mistakes...and that's the charitable reading. The uncharitable reading is that he's intentionally leading us all down a path where only Popo is ever right or can be trusted, even when he's wrong it was actually part of a secret plan to help town. Just kill whoever he tells you to, protect him to the last because he's our best player and wolves want him dead, and it will all work out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I once again insist that no one ever votes for Libro.

    I have to spell it out for people, because they are entirely too lawful for their own good.

    A) Snowblaze over there called for the Countess to claim

    That was a very bad idea.

    B) I claimed the count, I literally never claimed to be the "countess", check my wording in every post very carefully. I have also claimed to be the princess. The "count" literally does not exist in this game, that is the role I said I claimed that doesnt exist.

    C) THAT is breadcrumbing that I am NOT ACTUALLY THE COUNTESS so if the actual countess does this silly stuff and counterclaims me instead of reading between the lines and staying hidden, they can read my posts where I go "we should not mass claim" and "no one should counterclaim me" and "I am the count" and "the countess' identity will remain a mystery for the ages" and see what I was doing and actually shush their mouths.

    D) Libro counterclaims me because Libro doesn't understand I was saving their neck and drawing the murder.

    E) Therefore Libro is always town and is always the countess.

    F) Now help me destroy an actual wolf today so we can salvage the situation.


    This is a game where the wolves literally lie to us all day, every day.

    This is a game where the wolves would looooooooove to know where our important roles are.

    This is a game where someone asked for our importantest roles to claim.

    I took the bullet and then IMMEDIATELY SHUT THAT STUFF DOWN SO THE REST OF YOU WOULD NOT FOLLOW THAT PLAN.

    I said oh, thats me, what a coincidence, by the way, claiming in this setup is a super atrocious idea lets not do that, Snowblaze, as villagery as I think you are, my dear princess.

    And then I also said I was the princess.

    And then I also said nobody else should claim except our suspects.

    And then I also said I was lying about my claim, for the love of pete, which people would know if they bothered to read my posts.

    There's only 20 or so of them so there is literally no excuse.

    - - - Updated - - -



    This is a game where wolves lie to us all day, every day.

    I have made it abundantly clear that I'd take a bullet for any person I think is town, and that they should shut up and not claim at all.

    I have also made it super duper ultra mega hyper omega obvious that I believe lying to wolves is pro town, it's in at least half my posts in this game.

    I even said I was chaotic and a rogue who backstabs scums. Do you think I believe in the power of honesty?

    Seriously folks. If you won't lie to wolves, I can't save you from yourselves.

    Now destroy Vecna and jeen, in that order. For your sake as much as mine.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also, if you absolutely gotta see my role card flip today, ACCEPTED on the following condition:

    As soon as you see I am town, you

    1) immediately stop everything you are doing.
    2) think to yourself "I made an oopsie, I don't know what I am doing this game"
    3) you reread literally every post I made this game, in chronological order, slowly, and carefully.

    You do that, and I will vote MYSELF, right now.

    I have enough townies where you still win this game about 70 percent of the time, as silly as my own yeet is, I now have serious doubts you can get there without understanding my alignment.
    "D) Libro counterclaims me because Libro doesn't understand I was saving their neck and drawing the murder.

    E) Therefore Libro is always town and is always the countess.

    F) Now help me destroy an actual wolf today so we can salvage the situation."

    If D and E was when Libro first reacted to Popo's claim, then Popo would've continued the deception further and refused to townread Libro off that. That's what a town!Popo should do in that situation - sure, privately, Popo understands Libro's position, but publicly there's no need to broadcast that Popo suddenly trusts Libro more than any other player for no stated reason. Town!Popo would know how that looks to scum (because scum is definitely paying attention to stuff about Countess claims) and would do as much as possible to obfuscate that Popo's Countess claim isn't serious. Instead, Popo breadcrumbs and implies that he was lying and Libro is the real Countess to anybody paying attention, before Libro has even hardclaimed. He's constantly talking out of both sides of his mouth, ostensibly to town's benefit, but it could just as easily be purely for his own.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    No, I am one of the Priests.

    And here are my hidden notes so far, since I cant just post the link:

    "Ah, another glorious town rand. Popo is about to teach you the pecking order. It goes:

    (From least to greatest)

    1. Scum rand
    2. The dirt
    3. The worms inside of the dirt
    4. Popo's stool
    5. Town rand
    6. then Popo. :)
    "

    Next:

    "Okay, Snowblaze has a fairly smart idea and it is pretty townie of her.

    However I don't want to just hand the scums our Countess. I would rather take the hit and keep the Countess alive.

    I am forced to gamble the setup even has a Countess but I would prefer to be optimistic. Besides, if the scums believe I am the Countess then it should still delay the Princess' death.

    And it probably means I never die from a day execution, which is what I prefer as well.

    If someone counterclaims me I will drop the claim and lock them town. Same as I did before when I fake claimed masons on this site."

    Next

    "So Libro is the Countess and I have a ton of townies now.

    Game seems trivial so far, but I only have 2 suspects and there are 3 guilty persons.

    Because Libro is therefore town since he counterclaimed me, because a wolf just doesn't need to do that, and I am strongly gambling there is a Countess in the game, I have to expect that the odds are quite high that someone who voted Libro today is a wolf.

    Because 3 wolves in 14 names are going to vote for the 11 townies today a lot.

    Therefore, if 2 votes landed on Libro, one of them is scum an extraordinarily high amount of the time.

    It's sort of how I find wolf teams and mason teams. Wolves vote for masons a lot during day, particularly when the masons have not claimed.

    And of course, masons vote for wolf teams a lot, because masons have a higher chance of not misvoting due to their extra knowledge.

    Given my gambit, Libro is almost always town, and I am sort of now virtually their one way mason due to the gambit.

    I suggest that people who have suspected either me or Libro today are wolves a lot.

    Jeen and Vecna fit those profiles.

    If even one of those guesses is correct I almost always draw the murder away from our more important roles.

    When I die and flip town at night my lying to town was utterly irrelevant.

    If one of my suspects dies and flips wolf then I was worth my weight. Townies often need someone experienced to find wolves on day one, and due to Snowblaze's moves I feel like I got a lot of spew today.

    How people reacted to it all was very telling and alignment indicative.

    If my blues are all town we are in great shape, and if my teals are all town then all I need to do is double check them and convince everyone else my list is good.

    A dead wolf today and a dead me tonight plus actual arguments should probably convince people to follow the POE, and again, if the POE is right then town hits multiple wolves and almost always wins the game.

    Which is not bad for a day's work of being an evil genie."

    next:

    "It occurs to me I have assumed there are 3 guilty persons in a 13 to 14 player game, but on this site I have seen some awfully lopsided setups, and the OP says 3, 4, or 5 of all things. On a forum where people just plain don't post at all sometimes.

    If 5 is the case then town is probably doomed no matter what I do, and I am basically only playing for personal pride. "

    --------------------

    There ya go. All my secrets laid bare.

    Paladins.

    You honestly can't work with people that rigid and inflexible and unable to conceive of a world where it might be pro-town to be deceptive.

    Renegade for life.
    "Okay, Snowblaze has a fairly smart idea and it is pretty townie of her."

    Popo's private notes that he provided for his second public defense are "Snow's plan was good idea with a bad side-effect". Popo's first public defense of himself is "the plan was so bad that I had to fakeclaim Countess for the sake of the town". That was literally the previous post from Popo, and he's already changing his tune. So here's a little trick you can pick up from detective shows: as somebody's motivations change, their story can start to change. If somebody tells you a version of events at hour 1, and a different version of events at hour 3, and their circumstances have pretty severely changed in the two hours between...they're lying, and both versions of the story are meant to trick you, and you shouldn't believe either one and should look deeper for the truth.

    Popo claims he lies to hide his true thoughts from scumteam and keep them guessing. Maybe. Maybe. But that doesn't change the fact that both of the above lies are concluding "and that's why you shouldn't lynch Popo for fakeclaiming a locktown role". Lying to town about why you shouldn't be lynched...maybe that's kinda squinting at it a bit, but you can see why I'm taking issue with that strategy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I literally will not vote one of the zero posters even if you put me up against them for the yeet and I have to self preserve and vote them to stay alive.

    - - - Updated - - -



    I refer you to Haley having to explain to Durkon and Roy how a chaotic person who distrusts paladins thinks.

    You're on this site so you probably read the comic.

    The entire problem with how you think is that you believe the con in the first place.

    You do the shell game and think there's actually a nut under one of the shells. You buy into the entire premise of the con.

    That is why you need rogues in your party, because you fail utterly when it comes to outmaneuvering and bluffing. And when they lie to you, you believe them.

    It's like when in a 3 wolf, 1 cop setup, people always believe the cop claim. Even if they were wolfy. Even if they claim 5 minutes before end of day.

    That's a wolf 75 percent of the time and they always claim cop.

    That is why you are easily deceived and you have to have people like me come along and explain the finer points of not buying into the wolfy premise in the first place, and then bluffing the wolves right back.

    It's why I die as vanilla town all the time with claimed peeks.

    It's why I yeet claimed cops who then flip wolf.

    If lying isn't in your arsenal, in a game of lying, you are unarmed in a fight.

    Here, take my dagger. Your sword won't hit anything because you keep attacking from the front.

    Learn to know the power of the dark side. Power to save the town you love.

    - - - Updated - - -

    JeenLeen because their entire iso is a flaming pile of tires.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Gotta cross this out, if I remember correctly, blades.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Far better reaction to my accusations than Jeen.
    I've started pushing back on the thread at this point, and when it becomes clear I won't be an easy mislynch or an easy claim for scum to add to their info advantage, I'm abruptly townread. As if the only options for reacting to Mr Popo's quote-unquote "argument that AV should be lynched" are flailing around like a wolf caught in a trap or a townie sipping their coffee while reading the thread. On the one hand, we can believe that Town!Popo was scumreading me based on basically nothing, and then later townreading me on basically nothing...or both of them were lies, because he never believed I was guilty and doesn't want to attract my attention cuz the others seem to think I'm good for some reason. Mr Popo's motivations have shifted away from "get AV lynched" to "get AV felt out and maybe pocketed".


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: AvatarVecna's Afterlife 2

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  15. - Top - End - #375
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    Great, now I'm kind of terrified of Mr Popo. Or possibly of AV. Or both.

    This is mostly my infamous paranoia speaking, no need to take it too seriously even after I flip. I'm mostly looking forward to the second part.

  16. - Top - End - #376
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Because of course I remove a Handmaid. Add another lolme to the list.

    I just realised this is something no-one’s really talked about that much yet: what’s wolf!Batcathat’s motivation for fakeclaiming a clear on Libro? The only thing I can think of is “to earn towncred for being helpful” which really doesn’t seem worth it... though then again with one Priest mafia and one dead there’s not really much risk involved, and Batcathat did fakeclaim in Percy Jackson when the benefits were low to non-existent.

    I might just be overthinking things. Probably, knowing me. But I’m still worried.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 6
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 4
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 7

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  17. - Top - End - #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I just realised this is something no-one’s really talked about that much yet: what’s wolf!Batcathat’s motivation for fakeclaiming a clear on Libro? The only thing I can think of is “to earn towncred for being helpful” which really doesn’t seem worth it... though then again with one Priest mafia and one dead there’s not really much risk involved, and Batcathat did fakeclaim in Percy Jackson when the benefits were low to non-existent.
    Fair point, but I want everyone to ask themselves whether it seems likely that I would make the same mistake again after the comedy of errors that was my participation in Percy Jackson.

    (Yes, I realize that my present defense if "Book Wombat wasn't that smart" and "I wasn't that dumb". Hardly the iron-clad argument that was requested, I know).

  18. - Top - End - #378
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    Spoiler: Mr Popo ISO part 2
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I personally would look forward to seeing how guilty wolf Popo intends to continue being the top poster for the rest of the game and never getting murdered at night and how baffling that would be.

    That's definitely a plan of some kind, that will certainly win for wolves, because handing the town a wolf today and spewing a ton of townies in the process is a grand strategy.

    If I were you, I'd deliberately leave the howling and certainly guilty Popo alive just to see if he continues behaving like he is a townie.

    I know one thing, I like to vote for my wolf partners when everyone thinks slash knows I am a wolf, when I am a wolf.

    I like to bus people in that situation, because that makes total sense.

    Outed wolves usually go silent for a reason. It's because they literally cannot afford to vote for their partners ever.

    I know my disloyal partners that I certainly have would appreciate being bussed today or soon for absolutely no town credits that I would then have to go survive the game.

    That's one heck of a strategy. I bet every wolf signed off on that when I proposed it to them.
    <As far as town knows, I'm their best player, and also not the Countess. Baners will only bane the countess tonight, so I could get killed. If town is to continue believing I'm town, then I need to give a plausible explanation why wolves wouldn't kill me immediately.>

    *clears throat*

    "Wolves are leaving me alive to make town paranoid about me for the rest of the game, because that totally balances out all the solving Popo is trying to do"

    <Popo you've done it again>

    "Everyone is an idiot except me"

    <Wait, did I say that part out loud?>

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    You're forcing them to claim and also giving them a zero percent survival chance instead of whatever it actually is.

    AV, I love you to death as a person, but no. Hard disagree.

    - - - Updated - - -



    There may be a wolf in the inactives.

    I have so many townies that this is actually plausible.

    I also have enough people who are suspect that I'd prefer to hit someone who is behaving suspiciously.
    The one siren sound that can get Popo out of my pocket for two seconds: me arguing that we shouldn't give scumteam a free townie death. And then...

    "There may be a wolf in the inactives.

    I have so many townies that this is actually plausible."

    At the same time he's saying "I would die before letting them die", he's also saying "well mathematically I think one of them must be guilty". He's not even bothering to wait for the next post before talking out the other side of his mouth this time. Additionally...

    ...from a later post, we know that Popo has looked at the previous games she was in. Popo would know that Emmy's activity so far D1 mostly matches her activity D1 in the previous game (where she auto'd). I'd also like to say that technically, she requested I substitute another player in for her role, and if I'd suspected she would auto that game, I likely wouldn't have talked spoilers in the dead chat (since then I could've let one of the dead players take her place). Anyway! The reason this matters is that scum!Popo would see the writing on the wall, see that Emmy was already getting votes for inactivity and knew she'd end up autolynching (a scum autolynch helps town more than scum, but it rarely happens). So popo gets an idea: he knows he's gonna be wrong about the D1 lynch because he's getting it wrong intentionally, but if he keeps missing forever people will trust Popo less. He can either let Emmy auto and maybe trick town into lynching an extra villager, or he can give up a mislynch and a teammate he was going to lose anyway in exchange for some towncred.

    And then when it happens, he then says "nobody else can get towncred for joining my wagon, wolves knew emmy was screwed, only I get towncred for it". Okay he didn't phrase it quite like that, but I can guarantee you that was the intended subliminal message. Trust Popo and everything will work out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    It's some of that, but it's really mostly the part where town goes "oh, you're town right? Well then X is definitely not your wolf partner, and therefore, you should have no problem voting them to save your own neck."

    As soon as literally any townie says something like that, the "outed" wolf should be either lolcatting, trolling with their votes, or being dead silent.

    There are no further viable moves, at all, period.

    That's far more of an issue than having to think up lies. That can be trivial but yeah, if you're outed this early then you can be a bad wolfy-liar.

    My lie on the other hand literally always gets caught because countess always counterclaims me or literally dies and then I die, if they exist in the game. And if they don't, I was risking being outed on the 1 in whatever chance its exactly the countess that doesnt exist, when it clearly does because I was counterclaimed. So I would have known that the countess did exist going into it as a wolf because I would then also know which role is not in the game, the missing role, which is obviously not the countess now.

    Like, if you're trying to claim countess to provoke a counterclaim, then the purpose of that lie is to out the claim and then murder them at night. That's the only reason to do that lie when you're a wolf.

    So that lie would be made going into it with the expectation that I would be the first wolf to die all game.

    You go into it with the mindset that you are already caught, there's literally no survival percentage after that.

    And to top it off, Snowblaze is the one who suggested the countess claim.

    And I immediately claimed after that. Literally the very next post.

    So for that to be a wolfy plan that I was involved with, Snowblaze would have to be in on it as well.

    I can't describe for you how ridiculous and dumb that is. This isn't even wine in front of me, this would then be outing two wolves for the price of one role we can probably pile votes on and force to claim anyway because THAT is what wolfy teams ACTUALLY do on day one to hunt power roles.

    That's the time honored practice of going whoops, my bad, sorry for forcing you to claim how dreadful, good thing I don't have to claim as well and trade myself for just you, and by the way here I go piling on someone else I will then also force to claim.

    Chain claim forcing with my wolfy votes, all day, every day, until town finally (if ever) gets wise and arrests me.

    That is 1000 percent smarter and more likely to succeed than me claiming countess on Snowblaze's prompting and then telling everyone else in the game to not claim, refusing to create additional wagons or suspects, defending the zero posters, threatening to die instead of voting the zero posters, suggesting that the entire claim thing is a bad idea, moving the discussion repeatedly away from claims and roles and mechanics and talking about who is wolfy or not and why, and who is townie and shouldn't be touched or not and why.

    You have all lost to wolves doing the vote piling thing. That's how wolves out town power roles.

    That's the correct thing, that blends in with town.

    Doing the thing I did and waving my big black naked genie rear end in everyone's faces, drawing all the attention in the game to myself, and posting unsustainably as a soon to be counterclaimed wolf, that's a level of amateur hour wolfing that everyone here should intuitively know I am far, far better than to try.

    There's wine in front of me defenses, and there is "I am literally too smart to be that stupid" particularly while lampshading it and suggesting I will top post the remainder of my time alive and that you could make me vote my partners and I'd never get town credit for it.

    Even hard claiming wolf on your first post and reminding people of that claim in every post would at least be seen as funny and some kind of mind game. For a wolf to do what I did today, they would have to be all kinds of special in their head.



    You are right. This is not a situation where there is a correct answer, and one of us is right, and one of us is wrong always.

    It will be correct in some games and bad in others. All I am saying is we determine which course of action we should take based on context.

    Right now, we have the rare case where day one was actually chock full of spew, readable interactions, and productive discussion despite some efforts to the contrary.

    In a vacuum and we have nothing, sure, especially when an inactive is by odds more likely to be a wolf because I have a lot of townies and that number has actually increased since I last mentioned, sure.

    Those are trivial hits tomorrow or the day after when they do nothing to be town read and we think my town core is right or you have your own town core you think is right, etc.

    On the lower and lower odds those people are town, I would still like to hit someone who has actively behaved like a wolf today.

    That creates more spew and more readable information and the slankers who are wolves continue to have zero defense or reason to be town read tomorrow. Order of operations is important here.

    Particularly if Jeen is a wolf and Vecna is town, let's get that particular head today. That's an exceptional trophy to have as payment for Libro being outed.
    Generic WW/Mafia mech talk about how scum behaves when caught. It's an easy way to fill the thread with a lot of conversation that doesn't actually contribute too much because people are already aware of the basic connection - all a dissertation on the "why" does is make you look more solvy than you are. That's part of why I bowed out of the discussion: I realized that the argument was actively distracting me from analyzing posts and trying to solve stuff. And as soon as I bowed out of the discussion that had previously been rather disagreeable, Popo replies with "really we're both sorta right and sorta wrong, it mostly depends on context". As soon as it stopped distracting me, he's burrowing back into my pocket by soothing the wounds of battle.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    If someone is actually good at math, help me figure this out.

    I am suggesting the following:

    1) Snowblaze is town
    2) Bladescape is town
    3) Rogan is town
    4) Batcat is town
    5) Libro is town
    6) At this point? AvatarVecna is actually town. I have a HARD time believing all of that today came from a wolf I was otherwise stomping to death with glee. That's the kind of no-sell pro wrestling recovery from offense that only comes from babyfaces who are always going to win the wrestling match because it is scripted that they will win it. A wolf would have flinched more than this a thousand percent.
    7) Xihilrli is also town.

    8) I am also saying I like Supagoof for town despite not being solid on that.

    9) I am also saying I think wolves have posted and are active, and have voted in a wolfy manner today.

    I am also saying at least one of the zero posters is probably town. Possibly both, but let's not get carried away.

    What are the sheer mathematical odds that the wolves only voted for wolves today, rather than townies?

    Your wolves are among the folks voting for my townies numbered 1 through 7 above, OR MYSELF.

    That's what happened so far today.

    What are the sheer flipping odds that DID NOT happen today?

    It's astronomical. You have more likelihood of being personally elected pope in real life.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Holy popo on a stick, that's hilarious. I say this exact same bolded stuff with mix and match words in between, all the time.

    AV lock town never rescind.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Naming names:

    No generic thoughts, your wolves are in Jeen, gac3, and Book Wombat.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If one of those is wrong, there IS an inactive wolf.

    If there are 4-5 wolves, there IS an inactive wolf.

    That's basically a solve, which is utterly crushing to have at this stage.
    ...y'all remember that post he made about The Process? Way down at the bottom was a thing about Wolfy Diplomacy, about how wolves think about how they're viewed by everybody. They don't get hostile or argumentative because that's likely to get them killed. The nail that sticks out gets hammered down, and all that. The wolf that makes it to endgame almost always charmed their way there, and the person gnashing their teeth and wailing and screaming because they know exactly who the guilty party is and it's so obvious and why are you even considering voting me?!! ...that person does not get townread, because they weren't as pleasant to play with, and people tend to subconsciously associate "nice" with "good".

    So having said all that, and knowing that Popo is aware of this particular hurdle...know that he is scumreading me on jokes. Not just me either, Xihirli and gac3 have gotten similar soft touch. Why? He should know better. We're getting townread for being casual and relaxed and witty and funny and fun to have in the game and OH MY GOD THIS IS LITERALLY TEXTBOOK WHY THE HELL AM I BEING TOWNREAD. Things that have occurred since, I can understand why Popo is townreading me. I've still not come around on gac - there's a lot of noise there but not a lot of content. With xihirli, I also don't get it, because there's not even a lot of noise. Popo even makes an direct plea to the wolves not to ever kill Xihirli because she's what would make the game enjoyable to read after Popo's demise.

    I don't personally buy into the idea that town doesn't joke around (certainly not unless you wish to suggest that the starting scumteam was Popo/AV/Xihirli/gac3/Snowblaze/Emmy). But Popo seems to have a lot of faith in his method, and yet is ignoring a big part of it, the part that tends to catch endgame wolves? For three players? Y'all can't tell me that's not suspicious.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I welcome votes on me from gac3 and book wombat directly after accusing them of being wolves.

    Let's get Jeen and gac3 and Book Wombat on me all in a line, posing for a picture.

    I want it for my scrap book.

    So now, because I have the evidence I need, I am ready to pull out the hammer of justice and show you where and why and how I got to literally all my reads.

    And then it seriously doesn't matter whether Jeen and gac and Book get me dead today or not.

    It literally makes zero difference to the outcome.
    Ooooo that didn't age well, did it. Oh well, it's not like being wrong on two outta three is that bad, right?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    So you look at gac, for example.



    This is the sort of vote I see often from wolves on day one random voting stage. I do not think that Gac and Suga are partners for this vote.

    the purpose of these kinds of votes are:

    1) Blend in, it is random voting stage.
    2) No real reasons given, so wolf has as many options as possible
    3) If votes start piling on Supagoof after this point, hey, maybe it will provoke a claim.


    Simple simple.

    So what else did gac do today?



    Non-threatening fluff comment to get on AV's good side. "i know exactly how you feel, fellow townie".

    Nothing nothing nothing Page 2:



    "I am not paying close attention to this game. Sorry, fellow townies, I shall catch up."

    followed by:

    "I am tracking the claims and otherwise not solving the game or doing anything."

    Purely being concerned with claims and mechanics and lurking is what wolves do a lot, particularly when they're bad at being a wolf.

    Me trying too hard for a town read:
    At first, I read the "this is not a this seems wolfy post" aspect as possibly being a struggling townie catching up rather than shading people. It took reading AvatarVecna town for me to get to the point where I needed to really boot someone from my village because too many villagers, and this is clearly the worst stretch I made to get to a town read which I realized literally as I was presenting it in my first leans wall.



    This is a post only talking about himself. this can happen, but it shouldn't be this much of what you're doing on a given day.

    Clearly the most interesting thing that has happened thusfar this game is I claimed count and someone thought gac might be worth questioning for that awkward return post.

    Nothing else interests gac enough to talk about yet.



    After being accused of being a wolf and suspected by multiple people, Gac returns to discuss only myself, his accuser.

    So again, self focused.

    And here is the big giant 999 foot tall flaming scum tell, right here, in bold.

    Accusing a townie of inconsistency.

    "This townie should accuse literally everyone in the game who voted for a townie, otherwise they are being hypocritical and inconsistent."

    That's right, this is how townies think.

    Remove all context, all other possible difference makers between Supa and anyone else, and insist that "by your own logic" there have to be like 9 wolves in the game.

    This is called being an unfair juror and it is also the mega flaming scummy "inconsistency is the hobgoblin of wolfy minds" scum tell.

    This person is a lock wolf, never rescind, is literally always guilty.
    Popo has given his reasons for why gac and I have both traveled from lockscum to locktown (basically overnight for both of us). I still don't like them, it felt like forced reads at the time and it still does (at least for gac, in my mind).

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    This is a vote for a townie for zero reasons, the exact same thing as gac3's opener.

    The wolfy purpose of which is stated in the wall I posted about gac. It's the same shiz, and even distancing oneself from responsibility by claiming the dice made him do it.

    You know who didn't do that? Rogan.

    I harshly disagreed with it, but Rogan was basically plopping his big manly balls all over Vecna and saying LOL I SHOULD KILL YOU EVERY GAME FOR FUNSIES.

    Which is downright toxic if it's not actually a joke.

    But you know what that isn't? Avoiding responsibility for his own vote. Which is why Rogan is a big manly villager right now and Book Wombat is getting slammed shut by this entire village.



    Pure mechanics speculation which is not even the case because we have claimed Princesses and Countesses.

    "Who knows?" Padding. This is staggeringly bad "I am thinking about this game" pretend roleplay.

    That's page 1. Does he improve?



    You don't say!

    This is pure commentary mode, zero threats made against wolves, zero direct or indirect pressure, zero solving done. Haven't seen even one villager read yet.

    Surely something villagery happened on page 2? Nope? Okay.

    Three strikes and you're out, Wombat.

    I accuse Wombat and immediately Wombat appears, flinch flinch lurky lurky wolfy flinch flinch caught you, scummer.



    "off" is such a slam dunk case.

    Way to distance yourself from the responsibility of my townie death by saying "off" and "Dunno".

    You're clearly confident this kills a wolf.

    Obviously, frankly.

    Book Wombat can get owned by this entire village.



    Book has zero townies, has voted for two townies, and admits the timing of their OMGUS is a bit suspicious.

    GLAD WE AGREE.

    When you have this many villagers, hitting wolves is shooting fish in a barrel... of laughs.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Read the specifics of what was said, one more time.

    You absolutely can get this. Absolutely you will have zero struggle with this concept.

    I suggested the wolf team (of three) probably plopped their votes all over townies today.

    Yes, of course, some townies did that as well. Of course. What person in their right mind thought i implied otherwise?

    Now, put yourself in gac's shoes.

    He is literally suggesting every vote on a townie is equal.

    Which means we have more wolves this game than townies.

    There can be no context whatsoever that makes one vote on a townie wolfy, and another villagery.

    No context, no reasoning.

    Simply accusing someone for being wolfy and voting for people I think are villagers is scummy because hey, villagers also voted for villagers.

    Which makes sense exactly in the universe where I had zero reasons to town read anybody, and in literally no other universes.

    That is EXACTLY a wolf suggesting a townie "should" think all votes for townies are equal.

    It is EXACTLY a scum mindset, and literally never a townie mindset.

    Literally no townies ever, ever, ever think in this specific way, even yourself, who believes that wolves behave inconsistently.

    Townies do it way more, so I harshly disagree with you philosophically, but even if you believe it, you know for a FACT that particular logic is bogus in the extreme and that was literally the logic being presented.

    No townie thinks that way including you who thinks that calling out inconsistencies (this generic? Give me a break!) is a good way of catching wolves.

    You have to disconnect your brain and pretend not to be able to think like a human being, in order to PRETEND to believe that.
    The other siren song that gets Popo out of my pocket is me making publicly questioning his strongest reads. The plan revolves around town being led around by the nose, with me not focusing on scum because I'm getting townread and led around too...but I can be killed if I'm gonna be difficult.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    JeenLeen is a bigger monster, but here, I have way, way more evidence to show you.

    For your convenience I have bolded and color coded the stuff I refer to.



    Opening lines: Sure, let's have our important roles claim.

    I like the feel of Snowblaze's plan which I think is townie, but she could also be a wolf.

    But I do not think she is a wolf, therefore she is a town lean.

    "I agree" it's worth getting our princess killed and getting the countess killed, in the unlikely event that after this plan a wolf claims countess, when the setup has a countess and the wolves know that.

    The only part of that which is remotely like villaging at all is reading Snow as town. Everything else is wildly wolfy.

    And really, why wouldn't you read a townie town who is suggesting to hand over the important roles you otherwise have to seek out and murder, and are worried about voting for and getting OMGUS voted when they hard claim (which is one way to out them, but if you can do it without voting them at all, all the better!)

    And now, I shall vote for AvatarVecna, a townie, because they voted Libro, a different townie.

    You see, it's his fault I am voting there, more or less. Avoiding responsibility when that's wrong.

    So, full of wolfy agenda and blame shifting. All in just the first post.

    Let's continue:



    Here is this post:

    Hi, Xihirli, your roleplaying is non-threatening to me, and I shall buddy you.

    I shall vote in a way that deliberately does not hunt you if you are a wolf because reasons villagers shouldn't use.

    "I agree" scumtell goes off a second time in two posts.

    This is diplomatic and ingratiating and furthermore, has been performed by literally every. single. wolf. team. I have faced. In the past year. Every single game. Without exception. None.

    Multiple times, from multiple wolves, in the correct wolfy context of buddying and being ingratiating and +1'ing some villager's post.

    This tell is inaccurate to the point that townies can do it a lot too. So I never, ever use this tell alone.

    I always combine it with several other wolf tells, because then, the accuracy skyrockets.

    So, mechanics talk fills the remainder, with hedging as to whether it is pro town or not. Gives points on both sides.

    Nothing else of substance on page 1.



    More mechanics talk.

    Further, this post strongly implies that Jeen is not the princess. Which is something a villager should be more careful NOT to do.

    But obviously a wolf has no such concerns.

    Which, combined with the multiple "I agree" tells and stalling in the mechanics discussion, has given me three reasons to scum read JeenLeen already.

    So after discussing almost nothing at all but mechanics for three posts, Popo steps in and shuts it down.



    Because it's disastrous.



    And then Jeen continues to discuss mechanics and specifically disclaims being the princess, which draws attention and is wolfy and therefore bad to do as the princess.

    And it's bad to do as a wolf because it's wolfy.

    Doing wolfy things is pretty bad when it's early game, no matter what your alignment is.



    Lurking, not solving.

    Taking two positions at the same time, in the bolded parts.

    Only discussing claims and mechanics.



    "Odd, interesting, strange, weird" are all terms that wolves use instead of taking a stand as to whether someone is wolfy or villagery.

    Combined with explicitly not voting there, that's extra wolfy.



    Fishing for role claims.



    Preparing posts in advance is wolfy.



    This is the wolfiest argument in the history of wolfy arguments.

    First: Snowblaze's plan is good and can help town and reads villagery.

    Then: The plan has some merit. Not saying it doesn't. But let's lynch Snowblaze to confirm Snowblaze is town, for no reason, and then continue to encourage townies who shouldn't claim day one to claim on day one.



    "dislike" and "feels" are not stances taken on alignment.

    Also fishing for claims again.



    Continually claiming to be confused, over and over again.

    This is pretend struggle, not natural behavior.



    So let's smudge all three of these townies and claim it is a crazy gambit, and begin with executing Snow.



    This part is fine.



    Takes two positions at the same time.

    This is not a natural development of reads, it is a justification of a position taken.

    Instead of making reads fit the evidence, Jeen is forcing the evidence to have no effect on his own votes or "beliefs".

    That's backward and what wolves do.



    Which Bat immediately sees. And so do I.



    If I ever town read Vecna, I would immediately yeet Jeen into the sun based on their body of work thusfar.



    See all this bolded?

    This is explicitly never the Princess.

    It is also riding the fence so hard Jeen has to be bleeding below the belt by now.

    And then Jeen doubles down on basically lynching Snowblaze to confirm that Snowblaze is town and for basically zero other reason.

    Instead of deciding for oneself if the plan is a good plan, we have to somehow kill the person who proposed it.

    Then we'd know if it was good?

    Because villagers never come up with specious plans which they have good intentions about but can seriously backfire, of course.

    There is no wolfier argument than "I think this person's ideas are good, we should yeet them to make sure the person proposing the idea is town, before we proceed."

    That is not even an accusation of being a wolf.

    But I tell you what, JeenLeen fighting machine, you think the idea is good, so let's execute YOU and see YOUR alignment before we proceed.

    That's my response to that.



    One more attempt to get Jeen to vote for people they can believably think are a wolf as opposed to voting villagery people for wolfy reasons.

    One last chance, because we need every active townie we can get, even one with their head so buried in mechanics and claims they are flat out not solving at all, nor even voting for someone I can believe is even their own suspect.



    Final warning before I yeet the Jeenie into the sun.



    "Odd / interesting / weird / strange / dislike / feel"

    All of these words in the context of an accusation are shifting the blame and distancing from one's own suspicion.

    Instead of saying your suspect is actually suspect, or suspicious, or wolfy, or scummy, or outed, or howling, or definitive stances, you continually hide behind passive aggressive language.

    Indirect accusations are wolfy.

    Say "Odd" again.



    You will know MY NAME IS THE POPO when I yeet you into the sun.



    There is a reason so many people wanted to vote for Jeen today, their iso literally is an entire tire yard caught ablaze, with very very little in the way of possible counterindicators.

    The sum total of their villaging this game is to suggest Snowblaze is a villager and then suggest we yeet her to make sure.

    This one can get flipped today, no holds barred, no lines, no waiting.

    Straight into the sun.




    (Giant pause separating these two walls)






    - - - Updated - - -



    You can yeet all four of them, in any order you please.

    That's only a dumb idea when there's a fourth wolf at this point.

    Now I can spend the next several hours going over how I town read each person in sequence, describing for you how in the blue heck I got so many villagers to begin with, but let's give people the quick summary.

    Supagoof is likely town because gac3 is likely a wolf and voted him d1 in the rvs stage for the reasons I wager are a wolf.

    That's it, that's all I got on goof. Their one post is also strikingly warm and fuzzy to me on a visceral level that I cannot put into words.

    Obviously, I cannot blue this person. But man, if gac is a wolf, why would your next arrest be Goof?

    Especially after gac came back with the argument that I should suspect goof for the reasons I suspected Gac.

    That's not wolf/wolf a LOT.

    BattheCat has been flowing, natural, waterfall thoughts all game, snap voted Jeen for all the wolfy stuff Jeen did, and is clearly in high spirits, no tension, when they made the jokes about Vecna not even needing justification to be voted.

    Not my top villager read, but has done literally zero wolfy things all game and has been very alert and participating and actually hunting of wolves.

    What more do you ever need? Hunting villagers is literally this simple when wolves do not have a game that is superior to this hurdle.

    Good wolves clear that hurdle, but we're not dealing with those if my reads are correct.



    Xihirli

    Everything in the bolded here is super natural, believable, and it rings absolutely true.

    Immediately opposing the mass claim, having no idea about the setup, just wanting to roleplay, getting pocketed by Jeen who is wolfy as heck?

    Yeah, that's good enough for a day one town read. You better believe Popo about that one.

    I marked Xi down as not today and she has only gotten better from there, while everyone below Xi got worse.


    How about bladescape?

    That's all the exact correct reaction to everything that happened all game at that point.

    Instead of sitting here discussing mechanics, blades is giving out actual town reads and gave a suspicion and a big fat warning that I am an ultra wolf that no one should ever just trust no matter how townie I sound.

    THAT is how townie blades would react to suspecting I am in the game.

    With that one post, he is already leagues and leagues ahead of all my suspects in terms of actual villaging. That's how little effort it actually took.

    Is that *safe*? Could he not be a wolf if my wolf reads are wrong?

    Blades is one of the greatest wolves of all time.

    He's also one of the greatest villagers. And guess what, he randed village this game, finally.

    How about that? Not even difficult.

    Snowblaze is easily town for her plan, her reactions all game, her town and scum reads, and Jeen trying to kill her to prove she is town.

    That one wasn't difficult either.

    She also claimed Princess quickly, but was also clearly playing along, which indicates a spirited, free mindset free of tension.

    if this one is wolfing, congrats. I never hit here unless literally all my suspects are wrong. 1 out of 3 wrong, you can consider her at LYLO or MYLO only. That's how strong that is.

    AvatarVecna is the comeback king and has been the most staggeringly villagery person by cold read since their mediocre opening post.

    They are villaging light years ahead of my suspects, easily in my top 4 townies of the game now, and that's combined with me and the person who can only ever be the Countess, which reminds me:

    Libro is the countess and therefore always town.

    My gambit proved that to be the case. Just like when Chessgeek and I claimed masons, and the real masons claimed, we proved that they were really the masons, because wolves do not counterclaim 2 claimed masons EVER.

    And also, 2 wolves do not claim to be masons EVER.

    So town had twice as many masons that game because I lied to them!

    Libro is now my mason buddy, one way only, because I lied, openly, deliberately, and obviously about being the countess and even told everyone I was lying about it.

    Rogan is the lawful paladin to my chaotic evil genie.

    Dude has the towniest mindset and is not afraid to claim responsibility for their votes or discuss all their actual town reads and scum reads.

    It shouldn't be this trivial, but it is.

    And if you people think I would ever arrest EmmyNecromancer or RogueAlchemist today over any of gac3, Book, or Jeen, you are out of your minds.

    I refuse to give the wolves a single villager. Not one. Not even if they are not here to defend themselves.

    And if there are 4 or 5 wolves, THERE THEY BE.

    We can deal with them later.

    This has been Mister Popo, the guardian of Earth, and THIS IS HOW I VILLAGE.
    ...this is probably the main post that I can't really bring myself to scumread. The full case against JeenLeen, and the full reads list. There's times where it makes sense to me to comment on how Popo's opinion shifts with the wind to suit his own purposes, which might well be victory for scumteam, but past a certain point I kinda just have to admit that admitting you were wrong by publicly changing your mind isn't actually all that bad a thing. God, I'm getting tired of this "scumread everything" bit, and I'm not even out of D1 yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Gac3

    Token vote for as token attempt to look townie.
    After that out-of-the-park JeenLeen case, Popo backs off and votes gac3. Guess he doesn't want his reputation smudged by being on the wagon when it crashes into townie.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Sorry for the votes, homie.

    Make more town and scum reads next game, be sure to suspect the people you vote.

    Don't drag yourself to the end of a day talking anout mechanics and claims only.

    And if you think I am town you probably should have led the charge onto a better target.

    Not trying and not doing is not solving

    - - - Updated - - -



    You generally bother to read the posts made by the person you voted for who also says you are suspect.

    Or if that doesnt appeal, anyone else, and then make some legacy reads.
    *breathes deeply*

    Anybody who's played a game with me anytime recently, knows exactly how I feel about anything that sounds like "oh woe is me I'm so sorry I got you lynched what was I thinking you're obviously a townie oh I've stepped in it this time". If you'd like backing for this kinda thing other than my opinion, think of it kinda like confession via prayer: some people pray loudly in the streets and pews where everybody can hear how sorry they are and how much better they'll be, and some people do it quietly in the privacy of their homes. That first kind of person is fishing for brownie points for being evil. "I was bad, but now I'm good, I swear".

    A real townie just seethes alone at their computer, angry that the universe dared to declare them wrong.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: AvatarVecna's Afterlife 2

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  19. - Top - End - #379
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Just a post to help AV with the insight on Popo.
    Spoiler
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    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  20. - Top - End - #380
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    Spoiler: Mr Popo ISO part 3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    This wall explains what I have been thinking about overnight and what my reads currently are

    In case I die ahead of the claimed countess, which can happen in worlds where

    1. my town core is extremely right,
    2. extremely right but there is 1 wolf in it,
    3. or my suspects are mostly wolves even though Jeen was not a wolf,
    4. OR I suck out loud and the wolves want you to follow me after I die even though my reads are bad, but that did not happen this game. I'd wager the game on that.


    I need to put them out there one more time and help my villagers realize where I was truly confident and where they can feel free to poke and disagree with me a lot without me ever complaining about it in postgame.

    I also want to open my notebook and my playbook fully, so it is easier to process and understand my own slot.

    Communication is key, from this point onward, there is zero bluster, zero lying, and I will be playing the game exactly like a Lawful Good player would.

    I go Chaotic Good for gambits and tricks, for pro town lies, and to withhold important information from the wolf team. However, once that ploy has succeeded or failed, I immediately shift to Lawful Good play.

    Which means zero dishonesty, zero embellishment, zero in character, zero humor.

    Just flat, boring, predictable, honest villaging.








    Here is the entire playbook and notebook, fully revealed.



    Yes to all of this, but I am still going to be protecting:

    Libro- mechanically never a wolf except in the absolute dumbest circumstance which I immediately discount, I just want you to know, I considered it.

    AvatarVecna- There is no way they are a wolf. Ever. Take this read to the bank and never waver. Wolves I attack do not do this in literally any game I have ever played. Not one, not in over 500 games. Never happened, not once. So you literally bet the game on this read.

    Xihirli- actual reasons why town have to be looked at again, to make sure I am not blind spotting here. However, after looking over her again, unless I can formulate some setup where the wolf team must include her, I will never yeet here.

    Bladescape- his reaction to me is always a townie one. Sorry, it is that simple. You don't believe it, you can make a case and try to persuade everyone else and/or me. Give me your best shot, because I am not moving otherwise. And it has to be a slam dunk case.


    I will look at again:

    Snow, because now Jeen wasn't scum therefore some of the reason to townread there has vanished. But not much of it. You have to have some serious gonads (of any gender) to do what she did and then the rest of it looks amazeballs too. But for completeness, thoroughness, and because I need to rebuild the core.

    Batcathat- with Jeen being town, some of the reasons to town read here have vanished. Still gives me great feelings. Feelings, however, is not superior to reasons or evidence. Will re-look.

    Rogan- With Vecna my top town read and Jeen town, Rogan must be examined much more closely.

    Everything about him feels great, but feelings and some small reasons are not nearly as good as multiple strong reasons.

    Supagoof: Because gac3 is not proven wolf. If gac is wolf, Goof is town. If Gac is town, goof can be a wolf. Essentially, neither slot warrants a solid town read. But they are also not paired. So you never, ever execute both of them if one of them flips guilty.

    So if you were to hit Goof and he flipped wolf? Gac is clear even though I cannot otherwise clear gac by gac's posts alone. I don't think you do it in that order, but reasses both on day 2 and make it a contest between them which one seems more loyal. More loyal, not more posting or more solving, because wolves can post and solve. Alignment is the only consideration, not effort.

    EmmyNecro has to post very well on day 2 or they are now in danger. There should never be a third day that reads like day 1, so if there is a second, you have to execute here.

    Rogue has to post very well on on day 2 or they are now in danger. There should never be a third day that reads like day 1, so if there is a second, you have to execute here.

    Particularly if the town core is still solid
    . There is now less room for guilty parties among the active, especially if I can re-confirm the core.

    You can have 1 day of being a slanky villager. If you have 2, you are warned I just lost a game to someone who did nothing to ever be town read, had 1 suspect for 4 days, and was one of the lowest posters, despite wrecking the entire rest of their scum team. I will not repeat that.

    Book Wombat and gac3 always contains at least 1 wolf. I am mildly confident about that still. I will explore any possible world where these are both townies with full sincerity, but I lean against that. I don't usually go zero for three. I can't remember the last game I actually played where I did, it would have been 5 years ago by now or more.

    That said, as blustery as I am, the reason why I don't usually go zero wolves found in games is because I do expect that the zero for three game will happen, somehow, sometime, this game could be it.

    I do examine that for possibility. And when I do, and I realize thats probable, I reverse and find a wolf. That's why I don't have games where I have no wolves found anymore.

    I'll be extensively diving both while I am alive day 2 as my top priorities. I have bad day ones, I literally never have bad day 2s.

    In the past I dunno 15 games I have played as town, I have hit a wolf on the first day I have been in play, and if not, literally always on the second.

    That's my bar I have to hit in order to be tolerated. If I fail to meet that bar, then I deserve to lose, and it also means that the rest of you have to do the following:

    1) Town read me correctly in spite of never being wrong twice in a row, while being wrong twice in a row.
    2) Ignore me and correctly find actual disloyal scumbags over my own blind objections.

    So, you can carry me, it is possible. It just never happens outside of turbos.

    And @gac3

    Spoiler
    Show
    I will look into being less rude. However, what is rude is very subjective.

    I have been going for not rude, but pointed and critical. How you play should be fair game for critiquing as long as you are not criticizing ad hominem. Your votes, actions, beliefs, suggested courses of action, all have to be fair game otherwise I just won't play here again.

    I feel that's the fair, fine line. I try real hard not to be rude to the person.

    If you feel I haven't met that criteria I will redouble my efforts.


    The information gained from JeenLeen's reveal is that certain people sincerely believed Jeen was town or mafia, and some people may not have sincerely believed either one, and their reactions are now readable if the mafia were active at all. I know how to read those reactions and my accuracy on that aspect is very high.

    I will also do a very thorough set of unpairings for the entire game so far. There are many.

    Chin up.

    Yes, there will be less bluster going forward, but it is necessary for town to have a TOWN-lead wagon onto someone town legitimately suspects on day one, for cold reading purposes.

    If mafia control the discussion on day one, it is hard for town to recover from that.

    Town is currently in control, due to initiative, thread presence, volume, post quality, interactions generated, reads generated, and because lots of townies currently town read each other.

    Jeen, nothing personal, and I will work 1000 times harder now that you have flipped town, to make it up to you.

    We have the initiative and enough tools and information now to crush the game. Appearing confident even when slightly less confident means people tend to believe you believe in your beliefs.

    My role model on this is Captain Picard of Star Trek The Next generation.

    In several episodes he lampshaded or explicitly referenced the fact that when someone is leading, they need to project confidence, even if they are not sure, and don't know what they are doing.



    Now, there is a reason for that.

    Everyone has their own opinions. They are usually scattered all over the place. For a collective of people of differing opinions to work well together, they need to find areas of agreement.

    Whether they slightly agree, strongly agree, or disagree but are willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and follow, you can create a larger consensus and be more effective in putting pressure on your target if you have people who believe in your leadership capabilities.

    When they are having doubts, they hold fast, because the responsibility lies on the shoulders of the person they have elected to follow, who has laid out a path forward.

    Now, sometimes that path forward is wrong, but we didn't get caught up in arguing about it too much and pulling in two different directions forever and ever. We went one way, and then, decided or found out it was wrong, and now we can re-assess, and reverse course, and do that together, with a lot less infighting, and a lot less doubt.

    The disloyal parties have no such weaknesses, they know exactly which courses of action win.

    They know who they can trust, and they know who they can safely pocket. They can move as a unit.

    Early game, scattered about, with little but mechanics talk, and discussing claiming, it is difficult for town to read anyone, it is difficult for town to be confident in any course of action, or be confident in any one. It is difficult to build consensus. It is difficult for the fog of war to be penetrated.

    If you follow a town leader who is correct, you just win the game quickly.

    Now, obviously, that doesn't always happen, but if it was town leading the charge, it is easier for us to reassess, because there was a charge.

    There was beliefs. There was processes. There were things to cold read. It wasn't just a listless, disorganized jumble of votes all over the place.

    There were theories being discussed, towncores being built, alignments being guessed, and we never forced the Princess to claim.

    Part of why I believe Jeen had to go was because he very explicitly dropped all princess cover many times.

    Wolves do not care about that, and sometimes townies do not as well, but if I am going to lead my people anywhere, to any incorrect target, it will be someone who:

    1) Did not have many town reads
    2) Did not vote for the people they legitimately suspected
    3) Did not have much content outside of the mechanics speculation
    4) Is explicitly not the princess, after being cold read not the princess at least three different ways before that was even verified.

    So I made sure we did not force a Princess claim, because I had someone I legitimately suspected, several other townies legitimately suspected, and who had spewed themselves Not Princess.

    I also got a lot more out of the Countess claiming than if nothing had happened before that, and it was just Snowblaze: Countess claim and Libro: Sure, thats me.

    And because I made it clear, and directly spoke to Libro after they softed they were countess, what I was doing, I spoke directly to Libro and said I was covering for him to make sure he did not die at night (go back, read it, I literally said that out loud directly to him by name)

    It was in fact still Libro's voluntary decision to come forward. He could have stayed hidden.

    I even provided him cover after his soft, by giving a plausible alternative interpretation of it,



    You see this?

    This is me still trying to keep Libro hidden after he's no longer properly hidden.

    I kept a town doctor alive all game once after they explicitly claimed a town power role (just not which one) multiple times by pointing out key aspects of the claim being false-looking and then suggesting they were trying to draw the night kill. That argument worked, that doctor lived through the entire game, and I never voted for that player, and they never had to hard claim, and they pretended to be vanilla townie forever after that.
    Spoiler
    Show
    You want links for all these references I will be happy to provide in postgame. Focus on this one.


    We could have in fact gotten through day one with:

    1) A hidden princess
    2) A hidden countess
    3) wolves believing I was the countess, and then I would be dead in a few hours.

    That was my plan. I tried REALLY HARD to make that plan work after Snowblaze suggested the countess claim.

    Anyway.

    I have done the sneaky rogue thing, I have done the try to stab the wolves in the back thing, I have done my gambit thing, I have lied, I did the fancy plays, I put on the mask, I played in character, I did all the bluster, I projected the confidence, I did my job.

    Day Two will be different in the following ways:

    1) I will never ever lie about anything, ever again, for the remainder of play. So be careful what you ask me.

    2) I will not project more confidence than I actually have. Follow me or don't, I will follow you if I like your case work and also think you are confidently town. Or, if you are "in the box" meaning my top suspect(s), if you make a solid case against another top suspect and I believe it, guess what I'd love to kill any disloyal person, and find you town if you are.

    If you are out of the box, I will be eventually rereading you to confirm, and if you are teal or green, I will be prioritizing you for a reread and confirm, so I can lock you properly now that we have actual information for the first time.

    Day One locks are not as solid as Day Two locks, or day three locks, etc. Later in the game locks are superior to early in the game locks.

    Being a suspect does not mean I will ignore you. But don't think you can convince me to hit Libro or AV literally ever again, or Blades or Xihirli without being a confident town read of mine combined with a staggeringly good case.

    3) The thread needs room to breathe. If I have extensive replies to questioning, theyre going in spoilers. I will be spending most of the day doing isos and rereads and meta diving past games. That takes far more hours than I spent in thread day one.

    Which means I will be posting, but not thread captaining. I will be extremely busy.

    Spoiler: oog
    Show
    I also have a 1 week old and a 1 year old and a wife who needs my help, so you get me for a few hours before bed and scattered sporadically elsewhere briefly only.
    "There are four possibilities:

    1) I'm right
    2) I'm mostly right
    3) I'm right
    4) I'm wrong (this one isn't possible)"

    I gotta respect the hustle.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    This is villagery.

    I will bold the parts I mean and number each.

    First bolded: Yes, that is worse than zero posting. First post was good, but not like, instant town read good. Is only really town when you're a wolf, Gac. Otherwise coasted under the radar like a wolf deliberately, about 50 percent likely or more. And now that I town read you slightly, Supagoof is now out of my greens entirely. Particularly since they were not discussed much after I town read them.

    You are still unpaired, and odds are one of you is a wolf. Now I'm leaning the other way.

    See, there is a hurdle for being a villager, and you currently soared over it, and Supa has not.

    There will be bigger and bigger and bigger hurdles, and far more difficult challenges, and cases to be made, evidence needed, and narrower and narrower needles to thread as I can keep raising that particular challenge bar, because as the game unfolds, it is now possible for villagers to meet that bar because they actually have information now.

    Why the bars for town reads were so low so far? Because town doesn't have jack yet, except the stuff some people who worked very hard on day one generated for us to read.

    Second bolded: You were semi specific. "In a way that made sense and I agreed with."

    It wasn't that they were correct. It was why they were correct.

    That's why I can town read you for that particular line. You are not doing the wolfy generic thing which is "they were right, town read."

    You're wolfing harder and smarter than that, if you are a wolf. Supa has yet to do anything remotely competent as a wolf, except keep their head down.

    Therefore, you have cleared one level of difficulty and Supa is still on the first level. That drops Supa.

    Third bolded: Noted Xi has a lack of information tell. Indicative of town alignment. Wolves don't want to give out these kinds of town credits for these kinds of reasons, unless they are a level 5 wolf or higher. Especially when you think you're next to die, you don't want to spew people town for reasons that look like you were trying to pocket them, that hurts all your live wolf teammates.

    Fourth bolded: This is about where I think a villager who doesn't know how I can clear blades so easily would be at, if they need to try to clear blades.

    This isn't very strong or reliable, but what it is, is subtle.

    I rely on subtle, the stuff that I think wolves are doing subconsciously to indicate they are a wolf, because they don't realize they are doing it.

    Wolves go for NOT subtle things, in order to be town read.

    It has to matter to people.
    It has to be noticable.
    It has to significantly move people's reads, or it isn't worth the possible spew.
    It often involves pocketing a townie hard, or bussing a buddy hard, or other really visible, conscious movements, to impress people.

    Wolves never remember to do the subtle stuff. The stuff that can indicate townie to the 1 in 100 player who thinks the way I do.

    You're playing to a crowd. You do not play to the one guy you're planning on murdering soon anyway. Especially if you are planning on discrediting him the next day if he is alive. And you shouldn't really be choosing the "pocket Mr. popo" plan after that day one, ever, if your name is Gac3.

    That's too unlikely to have happened. So gac is not playing directly against my type of analysis in creating this subtle clues he is town.

    Subtle is more convincing to me than strong. Because it is accidental.

    I do not see a wolf doing this bit.

    Fifth Bolded: I think if Book and Gac3 were partners, Gac's summary would not have been so honest, about how they've contributed nothing. And if Gac was distancing from partner Book Wombat, it would be more indicative of an incoming bus, not taking a mixed read stand. The specifics read as actual conflict in a townie's brain, as opposed to wolfy taking two positions for no reason. This uncertainty doesn't look fake.

    However, I weigh this very little, because good wolves can do this. It's why I find the previous indicator much more reliable, because good wolves don't do that. Only the very greatest do.

    Still, more points in favor. Call it a single point since it's less reliable.

    Sixth bolded: Wolves tense up under attack.

    Why did AvatarVecna go to my top town? Their reaction to my megapush and large wagon on them, and then the increasingly deep thoughts that looked less and less fakeable.

    Why am I reading gac3 town now? Because Gac has all the reason in the world to be super tense.

    If Gac the wolf knows killing me will just make him dead tomorrow, and not killing me will just make him dead tomorrow, all he has left is trying to look more villagery and trying to get someone besides himself who is widely suspected dead as well.

    Gac should also be quite tense from all the attack leveled against him.

    Instead, Gac is lampshading how objectively bad he looks so far, and jokingly wolf cased himself in a humorous manner. Like, genuinely funny. Not even tense-wolf trying to force humor kind of funny.

    Putting his own name as 2/3 red versus blue is a class act, that can't be topped this game except by Vecna themself.

    Gac is not tense. Not even remotely.

    Now that's one small hurdle good wolves can clear, is not caring, and going about your business.

    Combine it with the 6 other town tells, and I am sorry, but you have to be a level 5 wolf or better to pull this off.

    If gac were a level 5 wolf, then their town game would have been more.... uh... townie. On day one.

    Just saying. Level 5 wolves usually try not to die day one, and they know how to act like townies.

    It shouldn't be that simple but it often is. The only high level wolves who don't do that are the ones known for an "openwolfing" style as both alignments, like Mantichora from MU, who always looks like a wolf every day of every game, under all circumstances, because they literally wrote the article about how to open wolf.

    I doubt gac is the one in 1000 player who plays like Mantichora, and I doubt level 5 wolf gac forgets how to pretend to be a townie on day one.

    Remove all the impossible (or as likely as to be impossible) and whatever remains is most likely to be the truth.

    Seventh bolded: Putting JeenLeen in their town lists isn't a derp attempt. They know this person is town because this was posted well after the flip, as indicated by the part where under the entry for Jeen they simply put lock town.

    Libro and Xi make sense to me. If Gac were wolfing, one would think they would try to pocket or townread more people than that.

    Overall, not a manipulation move. Not a diplomatic move. Not a counterattack. Not a "hit others in the POE who are widely suspected to pretend to be solving" move. Not level 5 wolfing, not Mantichora style open-wolfing, making plausible points, plausible suspicions, and hitting the people in this game most likely to be a wolf whenever gac3 is actually town. Process reads exactly precisely correct. Beliefs seem genuine. Subtle indicators going off that only the best wolves can fake. Stuff that seems to be riding the fence is actual genuine looking struggle with reasons why a townie should be struggling forming a definitive lean. Especially after I called out people for fence riding. It is trivial for a wolf to have a lean on
    bladescape here. Go with consensus which is that they are town, for reasons many people stated, or say they are a wolf for reasons. generate a case out of anything they posted, suggest it is low under the radar wolfing. Its trivial. The fact that that lean is conflicted and the fact that there are GOOD reasons for that read to be conflicted indicates actual townie struggle.

    Actual solving of the game, actual POV of no info, actual no agenda, actually a villager. Actually not tense. Actually concerned about how disruptive I am being to the game, which isn't alignment indicative but falls under "not diplomatic" towards someone who lied, got counterclaimed, and is still the town leader it seems. You generally defer to folks with that much heft, not poke them for non alignment indicative reasons.


    Conclusion: Gac3 is now my third highest rated villager under AvatarVecna.

    Do you see what is possible when people generate reactions and believe in their beliefs?

    It's easier for me to read someone when they are here posting stuff they genuinely believe.

    My god, I could have gotten there a long time ago had this been posted on day one.

    But day one, Jeen hadnt flipped, and gac hadnt been made into top suspect number 2 yet.

    All of that had to happen before gac would pull off a post this magnificent.

    I am telling you guys, we had an amazeballs day one that should be generating a metric ton of spew and alignment indicative beliefs.

    All "tells" of town I used for any villager this game will not be repeated for future attempts.

    After I have said the tell it is now null for the remainder of the game.

    It was important to out all of these tells to clear Gac, because I clearly made a mistake on his alignment as well.

    That's AV rescued from suspicion, and Gac, and Jeen flipped, which leads me directly to....


    Book Wombat (still)
    Supagoof (now, because Gac seems town)
    Inactive people (one of these is still likely to be town, or both)
    Possibly one of Rogan, Bat, or Snow, but essentially never 2 of those, and no one higher on the list.

    Look at Rogan first, of my greens.
    Book and Supagoof are now orange, as well as the inactives, and Rogan is now yellow.

    That's my N1 corrections.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Too long, did not read?

    Good wolves don't have the kind of day 1's that Gac had.
    Bad wolves don't have the kind of night 1's that Gac had.

    When Gac is neither a good nor a bad wolf, Gac is a townie.

    It's that simple.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I accuse Emmy Necromancer of being a wolf if they do not post amazingly well on Day 2.

    Rogue likely forgot the game existed at all, of the zero posters.

    Either get in here or get dunked.

    You have all of Day 2 to reverse opinions. My vote would be elsewhere to give you space.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The inactives (Emmy and Rogue) have Day 2 to catch up on the game as if it were their Day 1.

    They need space, so they can read, comprehend, catch up, form reads.

    Of the two inactives, if you must dunk one on day 2, I prefer Emmy over Rogue since Emmy should have been here by now, in this thread, posting something.

    In the meantime, much better endgame analysis can be created out of pressuring your more active suspects.

    If Emmy is a wolf, guess what? She isn't going anywhere fast. She will always be wolf read for not being here all of day and night one.

    That's trivial to hit later on. The wolves that can win the game have posted already.
    This is the post where scum!Popo commits to bussing Emmy. He could very well have not even showed up D2 and Emmy still would've died, and he would get the towncred for it. And then my dumb ass is coming up behind, spotting a potential reason for why Emmy instead of rogue_alchemist (since he's implying there's reason to trust Emmy the least of the two), and then I found something, and now Popo doesn't even need to come up with a reason Emmy was the guiltier person - I handed him an excuse on a silver platter. That's the kinda thing we could've come to D5 or whatever when it's Popo's word against Libro's or whoever and soembody asks "so why did you suspect Emmy over RA?", but I ruined it trying to be solvy at night. I got baited hard into looking for an explanation to the unexplainable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Final reads on Night One, after the re-assessment:




    Out of the Box forever
    JeenLeen pushing up the daisies
    Libro genuinely lock town
    AvatarVecna genuinely lock town
    gac3 Difficulty level 7 for this to be a wolf

    Special tier:
    Rogue_Alchemist- null inactive that is almost always town when the other inactive is a wolf, because of math, actual real math. For both to be wolves, the odds are extremely long, because it is an order of magnitude more rare for that to be true. Because of math, you do not hit both inactive players. You ignore the inactive person who probably forgot the game existed entirely, and focus on the ones that should have been here.

    Candidate to leave the Box
    bladescape- is just town to me, but I need more evidence to convince the rest of you. He can do all of this as a wolf, so he can't leave the box yet.

    Re-assess but very confident town.
    Xihirli- town read I shall reassess but feel confident in.
    BatCatHat- Beautiful waterfall thoughts. However, wasn't really in a position of difficulty at any point if they are a wolf. Still, check for unpairings and re-iso and reassess.
    Snowblaze- Either a brilliant and bold wolf, or just town. Re-assess to be sure.

    Suspects:
    Rogan- Took too many wrong positions and multiple positions at the same time. Kept options open too much, so this is the wolfiest of my previously green. Immediately turns orange when anyone below here is The Princess or is otherwise confirmed town, which shouldn't happen since there is no cop.
    EmmyNecromancer- D1 is a wolf more than it is town. Reassess if they become super active D2.
    Supagoof- D1 is a wolf more than it is town. But will assess.
    Book Wombat- D1 is a wolf more than it is town. But will assess.

    Special Tier:
    Mr. Popo-
    Spoiler: Popo's meta
    Show
    Has to be mentioned in any list of the greatest wolves of all time, just happens to be not a wolf this game. If I miss on day 2, or if I ever miss twice in a row at ANY time, I'm a wolf 95 percent of the time. This can happen in one in 20 games, and never lately. Thus the pressure I have on myself to get this right. If I am alive in final (number) lynch correctly or lose, and I was in the game on day one, I am a wolf 99 percent of the time. I don't need to be town read by anybody. Keep me suspected and I will devour the entire wolf team myself, all by myself, in a cage, three on one. I will be the one doing literally all of the offense in that cage, and I will destroy them in every conceivable manner. Put me at the top of your suspects list all day, every day, until every single last wolf is dead. Bladescape can personally confirm all of this is both true and not an exaggeration of my real meta. I am not hiding any of it. Therefore, put all the wolves in a cage, and put me in the cage with them, and watch the blood pour forth.


    Superior to all of these reads is when I do the full set of unpairings analysis on every player.

    So I can't D2 lock any of this in yet except I think the blues are permanent now.

    Once the unpairings analysis is done the game should be over. There will be too many avenues of victory closed off after that.

    @Bladescape, you know exactly how to do the unpairings if I die. Do them for me in my absence, and be thorough, be fair, and be accurate. Tell literally everyone here what unpairings are and how to do them, ask them to give it a try.

    When every townie in the game tries their hand at unpairings, it'll be over.

    The wolves will be no match for you. D1 was too strong.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh wow, I actually double posted. I've been here that long and going that hard with no one else here.

    Nice. I forgot the board even did that.

    I feel a lot better about D2 no matter what happens tonight.

    JeenLeen dying D1 should be the only mistake town makes this game, if we work together properly day 2.
    "If I miss on day 2, or if I ever miss twice in a row at ANY time, I'm a wolf 95 percent of the time."

    This post came immediately after the post where he committed to bussing his scumbuddy Emmy D2. Gotta make sure he's guaranteed that D2 kill. Gotta make sure he's got enough space to miss D3 without being suspected. Oh and the math rewards this kind of bussing if he can pull the rest off without a hitch:

    Game Start: 14 players, 11 town, 3 scum
    EoD1: 13 players, 10 town, 3 scum
    EoN1: 12 players, 9 town, 3 scum
    EoD2: 11 players, 9 town, 2 scum
    EoN2: 10 players, 8 town, 2 scum
    Autolynch: 9 players, 7 town, 2 scum
    EoD3: 8 players, 6 town, 2 scum
    EoN3: 7 players, 5 town, 2 scum
    EoD4: 6 players, 5 town, 1 scum
    EoN4: 5 players, 4 town, 1 scum
    EoD5: 4 players, 3 town, 1 scum
    EoN5: 3 players, 2 town, 1 scum

    That has us going into D6, two townies and Popo. Popo has never missed twice in a row, and he's probably got those two townies at each other's throats and has had them there for days. This works even faster if there's 4 scum to start (and if we started with 5, the game would currently be at 9 players, 5 town, 4 scum, and today is LYLO).

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I have baby in arm

    typing with mouse + onscreen keyboard

    i began game as priest

    n1 i was changed to king

    i have a night chat with someone villagery, they can confirm

    but no need

    keep princess hidden and safe

    countess keeps her safe when outed

    secrecy keeps her safe when countess dies

    sit back, remain calm

    analyse day one + n1

    i believe in you

    - - - Updated - - -

    my target n1 was supagoof

    action doesnt resolve because i was forcibly kinged

    - - - Updated - - -



    game only has 2 priests max

    blades priest at game start
    popo priest at game start
    i claimed d1


    there will be no counterclaims
    The only way this is scumposting is if it's a ruse somehow. blade is priest 1, and some townie is priest 2. This is scumking Popo building on my "King/Prince cause chaos and townies shouldn't use those powers" to accuse the other priest of being scum. If the other priest ever speaks up, they'll get eaten alive, and Popo will be able to fall back on "huh, maybe it was blade who King'd me after all", and we don't ever have to be the wiser that Popo was king to begin with.


    ...

    Spoiler: Some Rambling
    Show
    ...going to get some food, and I realize a few things.

    1) I've been doing this game for 10 hours now (and I've been up so long that I'm no longer tired).

    2) I already have enough material to both demonstrate my point, as well as to reach a verdict.

    Popo takes Action X for Reason Y. "X" is constantly shifting with little rhyme or reason, and is publicly known information (things he says, who he votes, when he moves his vote, things like that). "Y" is the underlying principle that uses Action X to drive towards Popo's win condition (whatever that happens to be); it is difficult to discern, but flows in a very natural way if you can find it. What team Popo is on isn't a variable really (it's unchanging), but we can't have any idea what it is for sure until he flips. We can only look at the Xs and try to discern the Ys, and from there figure out how that helps one team vs another. What I found is that for any given X and Y, if you go in looking for scum, you can find a plausible scummy explanation most of the time. And if you go in looking for town, you can find a plausible townie explanation most of the time.

    D1 had a discussion about the importance of consistency, and I can see where the disconnect was: gac3 was calling out the inconsistency in Xs, where Popo's actions and spoken beliefs did not match each other, and seemed to include misinformation for little apparent reason. When I delved into D1 looking for a scummy explanation, I found the Y values that drive Popo's actions.

    Popo wants one side to think he's the Countess
    Popo wants the Countess to not counterclaim
    Popo wants to muddy the water with too many princess claims
    Popo wants the Princess to not counterclaim
    Popo wants to lynch AvatarVecna

    In my ISO, I go on about how these Y values support scumteam, but here's my point: they don't necessarily support scum. You could make an argument that the underlying reasons for these principles is that Popo is town and doesn't want our power roles outed. You could argue that because of Libro's claim, he honestly believed that I was lurking and not moving my vote off Libro on purpose. You could argue that he wanted scum to think he was the Countess so they'd waste a kill on somebody who was not the princess, countess, or even handmaid. The actions haven't changed, the underlying principles driving those actions hasn't changed, but the team changing changes the reasons behind those principles.

    Playing a good wolf means playing like a townie. Playing so good as a townie that it's indistinguishable...at least until it's too late to do anything about it. And I can speak from experience when I say, part of being a good townie sometimes is looking scummy on purpose - if you're too towny, if there's a 0% chance of you being doubted or lynched, scumteam will off you. If Libro was as active as Popo, I guarantee you he'd be dead by now. Anyway, the point is that Popo is a very, very good player, and plays in a way that leaves him avenues to escape lynches no matter what he's doing. If it's a web of lies he's weaving, it's a very pretty web and I've had a good deal of fun unraveling to figure out why it was woven the way it is. And because Popo is so good, he plays in a way where basically everything he does could be explained as townie or scummy.

    ...basically everything. Not everything.


    Spoiler: The Quotes That Matter
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo
    I accuse Emmy Necromancer of being a wolf if they do not post amazingly well on Day 2.

    Rogue likely forgot the game existed at all, of the zero posters.

    Either get in here or get dunked.

    You have all of Day 2 to reverse opinions. My vote would be elsewhere to give you space.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The inactives (Emmy and Rogue) have Day 2 to catch up on the game as if it were their Day 1.

    They need space, so they can read, comprehend, catch up, form reads.

    Of the two inactives, if you must dunk one on day 2, I prefer Emmy over Rogue since Emmy should have been here by now, in this thread, posting something.

    In the meantime, much better endgame analysis can be created out of pressuring your more active suspects.

    If Emmy is a wolf, guess what? She isn't going anywhere fast. She will always be wolf read for not being here all of day and night one.

    That's trivial to hit later on. The wolves that can win the game have posted already.
    [...]

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo
    "If I miss on day 2, or if I ever miss twice in a row at ANY time, I'm a wolf 95 percent of the time."
    This post came immediately after the post where he committed to bussing his scumbuddy Emmy D2. Gotta make sure he's guaranteed that D2 kill. Gotta make sure he's got enough space to miss D3 without being suspected. Oh and the math rewards this kind of bussing if he can pull the rest off without a hitch:

    Game Start: 14 players, 11 town, 3 scum
    EoD1: 13 players, 10 town, 3 scum
    EoN1: 12 players, 9 town, 3 scum
    EoD2: 11 players, 9 town, 2 scum
    EoN2: 10 players, 8 town, 2 scum
    Autolynch: 9 players, 7 town, 2 scum
    EoD3: 8 players, 6 town, 2 scum
    EoN3: 7 players, 5 town, 2 scum
    EoD4: 6 players, 5 town, 1 scum
    EoN4: 5 players, 4 town, 1 scum
    EoD5: 4 players, 3 town, 1 scum
    EoN5: 3 players, 2 town, 1 scum
    Most of the analysis I did, I fully believe it's a plausible explanation for Popo's behavior over the first day. Most. Here's the scum theory:

    Sometimes during N1, scum!Popo realizes that Emmy is actually inactive and maybe isn't coming back online. She's going to autolynch unless he can get her in the game (and "in the game" enough that she doesn't get lynched for being missing). Scum!Popo has a choice to make: on the one hand, he can push Emmy as a wagon before D2 even starts, throwing her directly under the bus. She'll die, because Popo is great at choosing town's kill, and Popo gets towncred (regardless of if anybody else gets towncred for joining the wagon). However, the opportunity cost is that Popo didn't get to mislynch a villager. If Popo leaves her be and lets her auto, he gets to mislynch a townie. The opportunity cost is that he doesn't get towncred for lynching an inactive wolf. In both scenarios, though, Popo doesn't have Emmy going into D3. There's nothing that can change that unless she decides to show up, it's out of his hands.

    If Popo chooses to bus Emmy, the math I did above has him at final 3 going into D6. But he has to make this decision N1. That means the kills N1-5 and the lynches D2-5 all have to be controlled by Popo, if he's gonna get away with this properly. That's 9 kills to orchestrate, and it's also assuming RA never shows up either. If RA shows up? Popo ends up 3v1. If handmaid ever blocks the kill? 3v1, or worse. If town stops listening to Popo? He'd be lucky if it was 3v1. And in any of those situations, If it's 3v1 going into D6, even if Popo has bussed both his scumbuddies, he'll still end up with two days in a row where he missed (which he's told us is the "lynch me now" warning sign), with him still having one more day to get through.

    Popo only busses Emmy if Popo honestly expects to be playing perfect and lucky the rest of the game. And the alternative...is that he tries to get Emmy to just get a post up on D2, which she did anyway. If Scum!Popo doesn't bus Emmy N1, I don't go looking through her activity to see why she's more guilty than RA. if I don't see that, and Popo isn't bussing, Emmy's not getting lynched because Popo and I are the pressure creators behind votes. If Popo can get Emmy to post something like "sorry guys school schedule killing me", my dumb ass might even jump in like "this happened last game too, don't worry everything is going as well as can be, no need to lynch her over it, let's see if we can get a replacement player". I'm sure I don't have to explain to you how much worse this game would be if that had happened.

    Popo could've pulled that off. But he didn't. Instead he bussed his scumbuddy?

    No.

    Popo didn't bus because they're not scumbuddies. The consistency in Popo's Y actions is that they're always working towards the objective, even if it's in a bit of a roundabout fashion. There's a method to the madness, but bussing your own scumbuddy for being inactive is shooting yourself in the foot. Even the "cold hard calculus of bussing" approach basically had to assume Popo plays perfect after the bus. Even when you're as good as Popo, you don't actually bet everything on you being right all the time. The name of the game is "contingency plans".


    TL;DR There's a lot of stuff Popo has done that could make sense for both town and scum. But after thinking through the situation, I can't think of an actually good reason to bus Emmy the way he would've had to have done if they were scumbuddies. Popo is Strong Town Lean, but this time it's justified.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I shall now pass out forever. G'night you beautiful bastards.


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  21. - Top - End - #381
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    Stepping in to clarify a couple things:




    If y'all have any other mechanical questions, let me know. I realize the roles, especially the role swapping, can be complicated. How those are intended to function should be transparent - I would rather you guys be trying to figured out who is mafia/town rather than being confused on how mechanical stuff works.
    I think you had forgotten to include the Fi Fo part in the rule clarification part of the OP. But it was asked (by me) and answered in the recruitment. I 100% agree the mechanics should be transparent, so I try to think of such things before the game even started.

    But sometimes it seems like I am the only one reading the answers to those questions. Or at least the only one to remember

    Anyway... I think, for Libro to be scum, the scum team would have to have a Prince without using it and the Countess would have to be on second position in the Queue. This would be a really risky plan for no real gain. Libro doesn't try to profit from his save position to push for an important misslynch. And wolf!Libro would know he doesn't have much time left. One more successful Prince usage and the real Countess would be out, in the open.
    Mr Popo, you should use the Prince power on someone you trust. You can even tell us your target, the wolves can't do anything about it. They either kill your target and we have narrator confirmation, or they let your target alive and he/she can claim.
    Either way, we will have confirmation.

    I don't think I will be able to get really active today. It's 21:00 already and I am not at home yet...
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  22. - Top - End - #382
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    I was writing down what I meant to be some final thoughts to share before getting lynched but once I had written them I figured I might as well post them right away. Nothing major but you never know what might help going forward. Those of you too convinced of my guilt to believe a word I say are welcome to come back after my flip.

    • gac3 – I was suspecting him early on but he has since sort of fallen off my radar. If I had to guess, I'd probably say town.
    • AvatarVecna – It's kind of hard to look past the whole "basically sentenced me to die" part and I still can't decide whether I think it was a clever (and lucky, unless the wolves somehow manipulated BW) wolf plan or an innocent townie coming to a reasonable conclusion. Maybe a very slight town lean in general?
    • Xihirli – Maybe a slight town lean but less than before.
    • Snowblaze – Still feels wolfy and her "Gosh darnit, I messed up again" attitude isn't helping.
    • Libro – Is the Countess, so town. I suppose my death will remove any lingering doubt about this, at least.
    • Supagoof – Feels wolfy, but I suspected BW for a lot of the same reasons and that didn't turn out great.
    • Mr. Popo – Maybe it's AV's scum-assuming ISO, maybe it's how confident he seems in my guilt (though if that initial stream of consciousness confusion was faked, it was beautifully done) but I don't feel good about Popo. Though the combination of playstyle and unfamiliarity makes him the hardest to analyze.
    • Rogan – Probably my strongest town lean now, even if I'm still a little worried it's because we've come to a lot of the same conclusions.


    I might end up posting a new one tomorrow after going over my ISOs again. I suppose I should logically at least try to look at Popo and/or AV, but for someone basically working his way through ISOs 101 that feels rather overwhelming.

  23. - Top - End - #383
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    While that is the truth, it would also be a kinda clever (if possibly obvious) wolf move to go all "Oh, I most certainly didn't know Book Wombat was gonna die, look at all the work I did in vain".



    I'm not sure what you mean, was the list supposed to be from the least suspect to the most suspect? My intention was to label Snow, Emmy and BW my number one, two and three suspects



    Sure, it's entirely possible BW protected someone else, all I know is that he didn't protect Libro.
    Would you be angry if I would tell you I don't think you could pull this up?
    Because, I don't think you could.




    It wasn't specified, but it seems to be common to do so. But meh, if you knew about this, you would have reacted differently.




    If you are right... When the game ends, dear book tell me, WTF were you doing? And why? And... why did you list your role in the sig? Did you want someone to notice?

    So, Bat? Can you promise to not use your power in an obviously unhelpful way again?
    I mean, it probably is hard to use it well, but you can at least try to verify a claim that is not locked in anyway.

    If there is a Countess Counterclaim from the Prince target tomorrow, Libro will die and flip scum. Afterwards, you will die and flip scum.
    If there is a new Prince or a new Handmaid, there isn't even an theoretical chance of Libro being fake. This is not a proof for your innocence, but you will have another day and night to be helpful. And, depending on the other flips (a nk is nearly guaranteed to happen by now, since one maiden is dead and the other discarded (assuming Xi is honest)) we could clear you by unpairing.

    Spoiler: Crazy Mech Question
    Show

    Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role? Like, a guard targets someone without providing a role to guess.
    The Prince could change the role and the new role could resolve.

    If this is possible, I would suggest the following (assuming honest claims of Emmy, Xi and Snow/Popo):
    Popo targets BCH, BCH targets me, I target one of my top townies.
    BCH will become either the Prince or the maid.
    If BCH becomes the maid, I will be protected.
    Else, he will be a Prince and use his power on me, so I will be the Maid.

    Some other role could target me, to see if I am protected or not. If I am protected, BCH was the Maid and followed the plan. If I am not protected, I can either claim my role or will be dead. One way or the other, my role will be public. If I am the Maid, BCH was following the plan and is a Prince now. If I am not the maid, BCH is either the Countess and Libro lied or, more likely, BCH didn't follow the plan. Either way, BCH should probably die. If BCH flips town, he will flip Countess. Or King, I guess. In which case either Snow or Libro will die. Oh, or he flips Guard, in which case Mr Popo either didn't want to do his part, or he was kinged (again).

    And I guess, I should stop here, since my whole plan relies on Caos answer on the question.

    Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role?
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  24. - Top - End - #384
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    So, Bat? Can you promise to not use your power in an obviously unhelpful way again?
    I mean, it probably is hard to use it well, but you can at least try to verify a claim that is not locked in anyway.
    It's sweet of you to think I'll get the chance to use my power again, but sure, if I do I'm very open to suggestions. It is indeed hard to properly use. Using it on Libro was very unlikely to pay off (though it probably getting me killed was certainly unexpected) and last night's use was even less so (at best I could've trusted someone else completely).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Is it possible to send in a night action which would be impossible with your current role?
    I'm not sure I completely follow your plan, but why would this even be necessary? Can't I just target you with a normal guess?

  25. - Top - End - #385
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Seems proper sleep isn't happening. Let's see what I can get done. Here's my current leans.

    Libro: Uncounterclaimed Countess is town 99% of the time, and the only situation were they're guilty requires a good deal of bad luck for town and the princes to not be doing their job. One more successful Prince'ing will seal the deal. If Libro is our final wolf, then Mr Popo will Prince somebody tonight, Snowblaze won't roleblock Popo, and Popo will tell his baron buddy who he Prince'd. In the morning, baron buddy points at the person and asks them if they got the Countess role; either they say "yes" and we thunderdome them and Libro, or they say "no" and Libro is clear. The only potential flaw in this plan is the possibility we started with 4 wolves.

    Mr Popo: The only way he's scum is if he gave up a mislynch to bus his inactive scumbuddy for towncred. I don't see that happening, Mr Popo's position has never been that tenuous.

    Rogan: Very solvy, willing to stick up to his principles and stand up for his votes. His motivations and actions feel consistent.

    Snowblaze: I recall liking their ISO for effort and solviness, but I didn't have a specific reason to read them one way or the other (at least not anywhere near the strength of Popo).

    Xihirli: I've yet to see anything from Xihirli that couldn't be easily faked. It's all pretty casual and laidback and going with the flow. Prime real estate for a coasting wolf.

    Supagoof: Doesn't have much, and what he does have ain't great. I don't think it's nearly damning as Popo seems to, though.

    gac3: Big on noise, low on content (which is admittedly something I've seen from gac before). If BCH was already dead, I'd probably be putting a case together on gac3 despite Popo's protests.

    Batcathat: Is only innocent if BW didn't bane Libro N1. Can only be cleared by Libro, or by a guard who also successfully targeted Libro. Everybody except Libro has already posted D3, and none of them have confirmed BCH's story.

    All that being said...Popo made a good point the other day. Something like "the closer we get to endgame, the higher the bar for towniness gets". So everybody except Libro and Popo probably needs to be re-ISO'd either late today or early tomorrow.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    It's sweet of you to think I'll get the chance to use my power again, but sure, if I do I'm very open to suggestions. It is indeed hard to properly use. Using it on Libro was very unlikely to pay off (though it probably getting me killed was certainly unexpected) and last night's use was even less so (at best I could've trusted someone else completely).
    I think it's more of a "in future games, maybe don't scry the guy who's locktown and also scry-baned?" kinda thing. You aren't getting another power usage this game unless Libro informs us that BW, the other handmaid, and Libro all screwed up N1.

    I'm not sure I completely follow your plan, but why would this even be necessary? Can't I just target you with a normal guess?
    It's not specifically a question about your power usage, but more about powers in general. That is, if somebody thinks they're gonna get prince'd into having a different power, can they try and submit actions for a role they don't have, such that if they do get Prince'd into a role where that action makes sense, their action goes through. For an example...

    Batcathat is a guard, and thinks they'll get Prince'd in the night, into being a Baron. Guard targets one person and makes a role guess, while Baron targets two people. The question is, can Batcathat the Guard submit "I target Rogan and Mr Popo" for their night action? This action would be meaningless for a guard and so would waste the guard power, but if BCH is prince'd into being a Baron, suddenly that would be a legal move for the baron. So the question is whether submitting powers as if you were a different role is legal in the first place, or if you have to submit legal actions for the role you are, because the Princes are supposed to work as a maybe-roleblock.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I was writing down what I meant to be some final thoughts to share before getting lynched but once I had written them I figured I might as well post them right away. Nothing major but you never know what might help going forward. Those of you too convinced of my guilt to believe a word I say are welcome to come back after my flip.

    • gac3 – I was suspecting him early on but he has since sort of fallen off my radar. If I had to guess, I'd probably say town.
    • AvatarVecna – It's kind of hard to look past the whole "basically sentenced me to die" part and I still can't decide whether I think it was a clever (and lucky, unless the wolves somehow manipulated BW) wolf plan or an innocent townie coming to a reasonable conclusion. Maybe a very slight town lean in general?
    • Xihirli – Maybe a slight town lean but less than before.
    • Snowblaze – Still feels wolfy and her "Gosh darnit, I messed up again" attitude isn't helping.
    • Libro – Is the Countess, so town. I suppose my death will remove any lingering doubt about this, at least.
    • Supagoof – Feels wolfy, but I suspected BW for a lot of the same reasons and that didn't turn out great.
    • Mr. Popo – Maybe it's AV's scum-assuming ISO, maybe it's how confident he seems in my guilt (though if that initial stream of consciousness confusion was faked, it was beautifully done) but I don't feel good about Popo. Though the combination of playstyle and unfamiliarity makes him the hardest to analyze.
    • Rogan – Probably my strongest town lean now, even if I'm still a little worried it's because we've come to a lot of the same conclusions.


    I might end up posting a new one tomorrow after going over my ISOs again. I suppose I should logically at least try to look at Popo and/or AV, but for someone basically working his way through ISOs 101 that feels rather overwhelming.
    If I'm reading this correctly, your reads are in the following order?

    Libro
    Rogan

    gac3
    Xihirli
    AvatarVecna

    Supagoof
    Mr Popo
    Snowblaze


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  26. - Top - End - #386
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    If I'm reading this correctly, your reads are in the following order?

    Libro
    Rogan

    gac3
    Xihirli
    AvatarVecna

    Supagoof
    Mr Popo
    Snowblaze
    I'd probably switch Popo with Goof and maybe gac with Xi but otherwise it seems pretty close to what I'm thinking. Though aside from Libro staying at the top, pretty much everything is very open. I'm not in a very confident mood regarding any of this.

  27. - Top - End - #387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    It's sweet of you to think I'll get the chance to use my power again, but sure, if I do I'm very open to suggestions. It is indeed hard to properly use. Using it on Libro was very unlikely to pay off (though it probably getting me killed was certainly unexpected) and last night's use was even less so (at best I could've trusted someone else completely).

    - - - Updated - - -



    I'm not sure I completely follow your plan, but why would this even be necessary? Can't I just target you with a normal guess?
    You are here and talking. Goof on the other hand continues to be mostly silent. Usually, this would make you the better target, since your flip would yield more info. But I don't want to reward silence anymore...
    And at least, you claimed an action for n1. Goof claimed he intended to target me, but had forgotten to do anything. He didn't even say what he had hoped to learn...
    So, right now, I would rather vote Goof than you. Especially when you are willing to work with us.

    I can't tell you exactly what to do. (Except my crazy plan). If I did so, wolves would learn about the plan as well and they could interfere. Or, if you are a wolf, you could follow the plan if it doesn't help town, but do something else if it could help your allies.
    If you come up with an idea yourself, you can state your plan and the results and everyone still alive can judge if this makes sense as a villager.




    Unless I mix some rules up, the guards action is incompatible with the Prince/Maid power. A Baron needs two targets, a Guard a Target and Role. Both supply more to their action than one target, so a normal single target action role like Maid or Prince will fail.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  28. - Top - End - #388
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Unless I mix some rules up, the guards action is incompatible with the Prince/Maid power. A Baron needs two targets, a Guard a Target and Role. Both supply more to their action than one target, so a normal single target action role like Maid or Prince will fail.
    I assumed a guard's target would transfer to another single-target role but I suppose you could be right. But yeah, if a guard became a baron that probably wouldn't work.

  29. - Top - End - #389
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Dan is the King, Ellie is the Prince, Frank is the Guard.
    Dan targets Frank, Ellie targets Frank, Frank guesses "Dan is the Handmaid".


    In turn order:

    Dan's ability works. Frank becomes the King, Dan becomes the Guard.

    Frank's action (guessing Dan as the Handmaid) is currently invalid.



    So, it seems like a guard who becomes another role would not be able to use it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    But maybe, it's specifically becoming the king that makes the action invalid?
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  30. - Top - End - #390
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    gac3: Big on noise, low on content (which is admittedly something I've seen from gac before). If BCH was already dead, I'd probably be putting a case together on gac3 despite Popo's protests.
    I'm actually struggling to think of a time this wasn't my actual success... Except when I'm low on noise too.



    Okay I'll go ahead and make a list too since everyone else is...

    Libro
    Rogan
    Xi

    AV
    Mr. Popo
    Supagoof
    Snowblaze

    Batcathat

    Though the last one is really me following with things. I'm still surprised that Supagoof and Snow aren't our top suspects. Especially since Mr. Popo had so adamantly been sure that Snow and Supagoof were the next two to be killed no matter what, with the possible exception of Book. I know why book is no longer on the table but still.
    Last edited by gac3; 2021-09-17 at 11:59 AM.

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