Love Letter Mafia

[Supagoof]

Xihirli because I believe Popo wouldn't not point at her unless his confidence was very high. As he stated before he wouldn't even if she was a scum due to her awesome RP posts.

Updated count

Batcathat 3 (AvatarVecna, gac3, Xihirli)
Xihirli 5 (Snowblaze, Batcathat, Rogan, Mr Popo, Supagoof)
Not posted: Libro.

[Rogan]

I picked Gac as Baron to give a solid read to the priest with solid information to be verified in game. I hadn't seen anyone state what role Gac was.

I also thought that other actions N2 may interfere with other people I would have targeted. Like, picking someone who would have been handmaidened (Libro, AV, Popo), or picking someone who'd have been switching roles (Pretty sure Popo would get rid of his Kingship asap.) - so why bother with those of higher profile.

Night one, I missed - I hadn't put much thought into who would have been what role. When I returned on day 2, I just a list of suspects in my head from the time on day 1 that I did read at that point, that I wanted to know more about. Gac3 for pointing at me D1, Snow just because she's usually a power player, you because curious and hadn't played with you. So when I said you on my list when I returned on day 2, it was just because of curiosity. I had not at that point seen the wonders that Mr Popo had posted or had other hairs on the back of my head raised yet.

I struggle to parse the first answer. What Priest are you talking about? And why did you suspect gac as the Baron?
Look, right now, there are two possibility for you to be more likely to be scum. Either, you are lying about your action. At the time of your claim, gac already was out in the open, so your claim would be an easy lie to mask your real action.
But if you are saying the truth about your action, you guessed right. Guessing right is easier to do for scum, since they know more roles from the beginning. You claim to have guessed, without even night 1 info, the Baron.

So, I was kind of hoping you could point me to some place of the game where it was hinted that gac might be the Baron. If you were following a hint, this would make your action more trustworthy. Bats actions are not very good, but his explanation is quite simple.

The explanation of avoiding targets likely to be Maiden'ed is fine. The role switch on the other hand? I would like you to explain this in a bit more detail. There is a way to interpret it in your favor, but I would like to hear it from your own mouth instead of just saying "yeah" after you got this explanation from someone else.

The part about your interest in me is plausible.

[gac3]

Hey big question: Snow used their power to change Xi night 2 right? Am I remembering that wrong?

[Xihirli]

Night one.

[gac3]

Double checking Rogans claims list, it looks like I am remembering it wrong.

In the end neither answer makes it seem less suspicious. Because either:

It happened M2 (not the case) and they couldn't possibly be Baron.

Or it happened N1, in which case they have had the role for a long time, which feels like it decreases the chances of forgetting the name.

[Rogan]

Double checking Rogans claims list, it looks like I am remembering it wrong.

In the end neither answer makes it seem less suspicious. Because either:

It happened M2 (not the case) and they couldn't possibly be Baron.

Or it happened N1, in which case they have had the role for a long time, which feels like it decreases the chances of forgetting the name.

Counter point. If I had just received a new role, it would be fresh in my memory. If I had the role for multiple rl days, I might have forgotten already. Well, I probably wouldn't, since I like my mechanics. Mechanics don't lie to me. And the role names are not that hard to remember. It's not like I had to remember the name of Dionysus wife.

Do you think Xi wanted to fake claim? If yes, why? I tried to find a logical reason, but could not find one.

[gac3]

Counter point. If I had just received a new role, it would be fresh in my memory. If I had the role for multiple rl days, I might have forgotten already. Well, I probably wouldn't, since I like my mechanics. Mechanics don't lie to me. And the role names are not that hard to remember. It's not like I had to remember the name of Dionysus wife.

Do you think Xi wanted to fake claim? If yes, why? I tried to find a logical reason, but could not find one.

Less that they wanted to fake claim but more... It kind of depends on set up. I see it more likely Xi would mistakenly say guard if there was a wolf who was also a guard and they just had all their roles lumped together in their mind than if they are town and saw Baron on their thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, it's snows fault you had to remember the name of Dionysus's wife. Not me.

- - - Updated - - -

The key here being which scenario seems more likely.

Spoiler: Town Xi

Show

You are now the Baron.

*A few days later* I'm the guard guys.... Wait no... The Baron.

Spoiler: Wolf Xi

Show

Xi is now the Baron.
Emmy is now the guard.

*A few days later* I'm the guard guys... Wait no... The Baron

[Rogan]

Less that they wanted to fake claim but more... It kind of depends on set up. I see it more likely Xi would mistakenly say guard if there was a wolf who was also a guard and they just had all their roles lumped together in their mind than if they are town and saw Baron on their thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, it's snows fault you had to remember the name of Dionysus's wife. Not me.

Ahhh.. okay, I didn't see it that way. Thanks for the clarification.

And the blue part was not directed your way, it was more of a general jab against history repeating itself. I mean, come on, what are the chances of someone claiming to mix up role names in two of the three games I participated in?

[gac3]

Wait... Was it even Snow? I don't remember who made up a fake claim but they definitely included the weird name.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I went back because I remember Xi being one of the people who kept saying "kill the silent" and voting Emmy. I was hoping to see evidence there of either active bussing the ally or distancing or being a townie or anything but there wasn't as much there as I thought there would be. Xi definitely voted Emmy day one and day two. The only thing that stood out about it is that if wolf, they would have known Emmy wouldn't auto lynch and so it would have made sense to push "kill the silent on RA" but that's flimsy enough that I don't think it's worth much.

[Supagoof]

I struggle to parse the first answer. What Priest are you talking about? And why did you suspect gac as the Baron?
Look, right now, there are two possibility for you to be more likely to be scum. Either, you are lying about your action. At the time of your claim, gac already was out in the open, so your claim would be an easy lie to mask your real action.
But if you are saying the truth about your action, you guessed right. Guessing right is easier to do for scum, since they know more roles from the beginning. You claim to have guessed, without even night 1 info, the Baron.

So, I was kind of hoping you could point me to some place of the game where it was hinted that gac might be the Baron. If you were following a hint, this would make your action more trustworthy. Bats actions are not very good, but his explanation is quite simple.

The explanation of avoiding targets likely to be Maiden'ed is fine. The role switch on the other hand? I would like you to explain this in a bit more detail. There is a way to interpret it in your favor, but I would like to hear it from your own mouth instead of just saying "yeah" after you got this explanation from someone else.

The part about your interest in me is plausible.

I didn't have a hint from anywhere in game, just a hunch about gac as baron when I submitted my N2 action. My thinking in N2 (which didn't have solid evidence on anyone mind you) was that

Libro was Countess - alignment town
Popo was King - likely town
Popo/AV had line(s) of communication - which meant a trusted network.
I was pretty sure (still am) that someone in Popos trust list is untrustworthy. Given the other people would have had actions taken against them, I choose Gac as the least likely to be having this done. I then choose Baron would be a role of someone who could align wolf but get onto a trusted network. Recall my list of you/gac/snowblaze as scum during N2. N2s night results and D3s chatter has changed that list, but for N2 - that's where my head was at.

Also recall I posted early today that I scried gac3, but would not reveal the result of scry without his consent. Early in this day, we weren't talking about mass role claiming, so I wouldn't throw him under a bus or give scum more info that way.

As day progressed, mass role claiming became the thing, and when I returned, I revealed the result because gac said "as for revealing me, eh...." which I then took as permission. If his role was outed at that point, then I missed it. Please show me where it was outed before?

And before anyone asks "Why didn't you check that gac3 was Mafia?" - I didn't think scrying Mafia was possible, and I confirmed in QT with Caiomhin that it is not.

Sorry for the long explanation. But that's me, not hiding anything.

[Rogan]

I didn't have a hint from anywhere in game, just a hunch about gac as baron when I submitted my N2 action. My thinking in N2 (which didn't have solid evidence on anyone mind you) was that

Libro was Countess - alignment town
Popo was King - likely town
Popo/AV had line(s) of communication - which meant a trusted network.
I was pretty sure (still am) that someone in Popos trust list is untrustworthy. Given the other people would have had actions taken against them, I choose Gac as the least likely to be having this done. I then choose Baron would be a role of someone who could align wolf but get onto a trusted network. Recall my list of you/gac/snowblaze as scum during N2. N2s night results and D3s chatter has changed that list, but for N2 - that's where my head was at.

Also recall I posted early today that I scried gac3, but would not reveal the result of scry without his consent. Early in this day, we weren't talking about mass role claiming, so I wouldn't throw him under a bus or give scum more info that way.

As day progressed, mass role claiming became the thing, and when I returned, I revealed the result because gac said "as for revealing me, eh...." which I then took as permission. If his role was outed at that point, then I missed it. Please show me where it was outed before?

And before anyone asks "Why didn't you check that gac3 was Mafia?" - I didn't think scrying Mafia was possible, and I confirmed in QT with Caiomhin that it is not.

Sorry for the long explanation. But that's me, not hiding anything.

Popo AV having a private comm channel is wrong, as far as I know. Can anybody comment?

The rest of your line of thought is something I can get behind.

About knowing the claim:

Skimming through... It appears my role has been outed.

I'm a little sorry about that, but I'm about 70% sure scumteam already knows who everybody is; at most, they were going to figure out everything tonight, maybe tomorrow morning after the NK flip. Popo was right, massclaiming was the answer in this situation, so I went ahead.

As for revealing me, eh. At this point I was on the fence about just saying it anyways. Now I don't have to decide.

My original plan was "Mr. Popo seems town and better than me. QT with him night one. Night two: link Mr. Popo with whoever they want." But Mr. Popo was convinced they would die and gave me a whole bunch of stuff I was supposed to post today. So I connected you to me instead.

This is a chain of quotes. Ending with the one you seem to know, Goof.

Gacs claim was discussed even before this line of quotes (gac even says so in the first quote).
You could have missed it. There was a lot going on today, so missing things is an easy thing to happen if you are not paying that much attention. Still... you could have known and probably should have known.

[Supagoof]

I think Gac stating he was outed is a reference to my last post on page 12, where I definitely stated I scried him. Gac - was that your read?

As for Popo - I assumed he did have a network, given how much bravado he stated with the spidermans.

[Batcathat]

And before anyone asks "Why didn't you check that gac3 was Mafia?" - I didn't think scrying Mafia was possible, and I confirmed in QT with Caiomhin that it is not.

In addition to what Rogan has already pointed out, I find this part rather suspicious. While the mechanics are a little tricky, the part about not being able to scry alignment has been pretty obvious from the start, no? This feels like someone trying a little too hard, I think.

[gac3]

Popo AV having a private comm channel is wrong, as far as I know. Can anybody comment?

The rest of your line of thought is something I can get behind.

About knowing the claim:

Only two barons right? And we can account for three Baron Actions. N1: Gac3/Popo; N2: Gac3/AV, Xi/Snowblaze

With the fourth potential use presumably being not there because the role was unused and given to Xi night one.

So the only way I know of for AV and Popo to have a private comm is if they are W/W

- - - Updated - - -

I think Gac stating he was outed is a reference to my last post on page 12, where I definitely stated I scried him. Gac - was that your read?

As for Popo - I assumed he did have a network, given how much bravado he stated with the spidermans.

I did not specifically see whatever you are referencing. I stated I'd already been outed because on whatever page where I said that, both people I had targeted (AV and Popo) were actively referencing me as Baron.

[Rogan]

Okay.

I confused Baron and Prince.

You were referring to gac using the baron's comms power on me. Got it.

I thought you had TMI that I had been hit with a (Prince) power rather than directly Kinged from the King power.

Okay, this is probably the first time someone told us gacs role. Hilarious bonus? Mr Popo confused about role names. Something that makes Xi the top target right now.

Only two barons right? And we can account for three Baron Actions. N1: Gac3/Popo; N2: Gac3/AV, Xi/Snowblaze

With the fourth potential use presumably being not there because the role was unused and given to Xi night one.

So the only way I know of for AV and Popo to have a private comm is if they are W/W

- - - Updated - - -



I did not specifically see whatever you are referencing. I stated I'd already been outed because on whatever page where I said that, both people I had targeted (AV and Popo) were actively referencing me as Baron.

Your logic checks out. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. This is an easy thing to happen, especially in some of popos posts. They are so long...
And I highly doubt AV and Mr Popo are W/W. I think they are T/T.

[Supagoof]

I looked at Gac3 last night, and was successful in figuring out his role. I will confirm my action with Gac3's permission. I won't out his role, without his consent.

This post is the one I'm specifically referring too. It's ok though, kinda semantic from when you returned, and then when I returned.

I also now assume the network AV/Popo have is because you are the intermediary then. I thought it was larger due to the spidermen.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah - that checks out to me too. I agree that Popo/AV/Gac/Libro are all town.

[Rogan]

This post is the one I'm specifically referring too. It's ok though, kinda semantic from when you returned, and then when I returned.

I also now assume the network AV/Popo have is because you are the intermediary then. I thought it was larger due to the spidermen.

This AV/Popo Network will only get really online tonight. End of N1, Mr Popo and Gac gained a connection. D2, Mr Popo knows about the Connection, but can't use it. N2, they can talk. D3, there is a new connection, this time with AV. But again, it's not an active connection yet. All private communication is limited to the night.

[gac3]

This AV/Popo Network will only get really online tonight. End of N1, Mr Popo and Gac gained a connection. D2, Mr Popo knows about the Connection, but can't use it. N2, they can talk. D3, there is a new connection, this time with AV. But again, it's not an active connection yet. All private communication is limited to the night.

Yes. And the sad thing about the way things shook out is that it doesn't really matter if they trust each other enough to use the network effectively. They also have to trust me because I would be the one passing messages along.

[Supagoof]

This AV/Popo Network will only get really online tonight. End of N1, Mr Popo and Gac gained a connection. D2, Mr Popo knows about the Connection, but can't use it. N2, they can talk. D3, there is a new connection, this time with AV. But again, it's not an active connection yet. All private communication is limited to the night.

True - until then it's the telephone game between AV-Gac and Gac-Popo.

Anyway - I'm leaving for the weekend. I've got my night action in already and will reveal it once I

• return
• get the results
• verify I lived through the night.

- - - Updated - - -

ninja'd - but what Gac said.

[gac3]

This post is the one I'm specifically referring too. It's ok though, kinda semantic from when you returned, and then when I returned.

I also now assume the network AV/Popo have is because you are the intermediary then. I thought it was larger due to the spidermen.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah - that checks out to me too. I agree that Popo/AV/Gac/Libro are all town.

Honestly unless I'm something super useful or important to town, it's probably fair to out me. I have a history of claiming without prompting and for no apparent reason. Usually is privately but also normally I privately claim to anyone I'm talking with. So....

[Rogan]

True - until then it's the telephone game between AV-Gac and Gac-Popo.

Anyway - I'm leaving for the weekend. I've got my night action in already and will reveal it once I

• return
• get the results
• verify I lived through the night.

- - - Updated - - -

ninja'd - but what Gac said.

It's not a telephone game. Till night. It's a phone game AT night. No talking in private during the day. Except to Cao, to be precise.

[gac3]

Okay, this is probably the first time someone told us gacs role. Hilarious bonus? Mr Popo confused about role names. Something that makes Xi the top target right now.



Your logic checks out. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. This is an easy thing to happen, especially in some of popos posts. They are so long...
And I highly doubt AV and Mr Popo are W/W. I think they are T/T.

I agree on AV/Mr. P being T/T but also conceed that if they are both wolves, they deserve the win probably

[Rogan]

I agree on AV/Mr. P being T/T but also conceed that if they are both wolves, they deserve the win probably

Oh yeah. If they are the team, I wonder if they were glad about Emmy dropping out. Without talking, she could not discredit them.

Hmmm... less than 7 hours left in the day. And it's mostly silent again. I guess I can spend some time on mech talk?

Spoiler: To maid or not to maid?

Show

If we want to have a chance to save someone tonight, we have to go for a variation of the plan I suggested. I don't think guards are important anymore. We have all claims.
The Priest remains important, he might track a killer to the victim.
The maiden is important as well, but currently not in the game.
The Baron is more useful than the guards, but not that important.
The Prince is required for the plan.
The King is required to not interfere with the plan.
The Countess can't to anything.

I think, I noticed a flaw in my initial idea. If the maiden is first in line, the wolves will know this. So they must not know the first link in the chain, or they can kill the maiden right away.
This would be the worst case. The last maid would be out of the game. There will never be a chance to save at night.

[Batcathat]

I agree on AV/Mr. P being T/T but also conceed that if they are both wolves, they deserve the win probably

Yeah, AV and Popo has been my most paranoid fear for most of the game, but it does seem fairly unlikely.

Also, now I'm gonna imagine everything Popo writes in a Mr. T voice. Feels weirdly fitting.

[Rogan]

5 hours till EOD.

It's time to go to bed. Good night, see you all tomorrow.

[gac3]

I honestly might have missed is but I don't think so. I genuinely think this is he nail in Xi's coffin for me... They haven't told anyone to kill them yet.

- - - Updated - - -

This may seem like a joke point or something but it genuinely is just a Xi tell. The last time I noticed that Xi didn't say "Kill me" or self vote, they were a wolf and didn't say it until we pointed out that it was out of character. It also makes sense from a game strategy perspective. Mislynches honestly aren't that terrible of a thing as long as they provide some kind of useful information. Town as individuals shouldn't be most concerned with surviving till the end of game (if they want to win I mean) but rather getting things going. Xi and AV particularly are good about embracing that philosophy. That victory does not require their survival. It's why they so frequently have self vote moments. For wolves though, the whole issue is flipped. Victory depends entirely on you not getting caught and killed. So the number one thing you do is try to avoid that for as long as possible. I think this is why Xi either intentionally or unintentionally leaves out that part of their play style when a wolf. The problem is, it can be a pretty indicative tell when they make such a habit of it, so it we can't bank on it because that's when Xi can start changing their behavior to fool us. As a whole though, it does seem to be fairly consistent the times I've paid attention so far.

[Batcathat]

It's time to go to bed. Good night, see you all tomorrow.

Yeah, I should really do the same. Hopefully I'll still be alive when I wake up but in case the votes move around, I suppose I should wish the Loyal Followers of the Princess good luck. I'd hoped to (potentially) leave with some final insight but at least I feel pretty good about our chances of winning, even if you do end up lynching me.

[AvatarVecna]

Only two barons right? And we can account for three Baron Actions. N1: Gac3/Popo; N2: Gac3/AV, Xi/Snowblaze

With the fourth potential use presumably being not there because the role was unused and given to Xi night one.

So the only way I know of for AV and Popo to have a private comm is if they are W/W

- - - Updated - - -



I did not specifically see whatever you are referencing. I stated I'd already been outed because on whatever page where I said that, both people I had targeted (AV and Popo) were actively referencing me as Baron.

I am.not in private communication with Popo. In one of my posts, I gave a hypothetical situation where, if I had been given a QT with Popo N2, and Popo wasn't claiming Baron, I would be far less inclined to trust Popo and the baron who made the QT, because one of them is probably trying to play me. But this was only a hypothetical situation.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, this is probably the first time someone told us gacs role. Hilarious bonus? Mr Popo confused about role names. Something that makes Xi the top target right now.



Your logic checks out. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. This is an easy thing to happen, especially in some of popos posts. They are so long...
And I highly doubt AV and Mr Popo are W/W. I think they are T/T.

Wait...Popo did call gac Baron before I did? I thought I remembered gac getting outed already!

Also I'll say that if the remaining sc are AV/Popo, town may as well resign.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah, AV and Popo has been my most paranoid fear for most of the game, but it does seem fairly unlikely.

Also, now I'm gonna imagine everything Popo writes in a Mr. T voice. Feels weirdly fitting.

"Mr T is about to teach you maggots the pecking order!"

[Grand Arbiter]

I’m not even going to start talking on irl & why I’m so late into the day phase because it’s a whole damn can of worms. Just take the post & vote and try have a good weekend with friends/family y’all.

line break

Princess being one of the inactives explains why nobody was targeting them. Not even a single guard poked around.

Xihirli, loved the posts but you currently seem more sus than Batcathat.

[Xihirli]

It’s cool, I’ve worked out my death post ahead of time.

- - - Updated - - -

I’m not playing to beat anyone, I’m playing to make a beautiful picture.