Love Letter Mafia

[Mr Popo]

And before anyone asks "Why didn't you check that gac3 was Mafia?" - I didn't think scrying Mafia was possible, and I confirmed in QT with Caiomhin that it is not.

Sorry for the long explanation. But that's me, not hiding anything.

Never even occurred to me that this could be possible because of how many of these town gets.

Game would be utterly broken if it were the case, but....

Your approach to the game and your perspective is so different from my own, that I can think you might be operating on that straightforward level.

By "level" I do not mean superior or inferior, smarter or dumber, better or worse, I mean like rock paper scissors.

Like, level 1, I hit it with a rock.
Level 2, I counter the rock with this piece of paper where I have written the instructions for creating dynamite, which will blast apart the rock. (makes more sense to me than "paper covers rock")
Level 3, aha, but you can't use your paper if I cut it into a million pieces with my scissors.
Level 4, aka, level 1: Aha, but you can't cut it into a million pieces if I hit your scissors with my rock.

The straightforward level is "Can I check out mafia with this scrying power?" and the answer is "nope."

I never would have even bothered to ask. I just instinctively knew it wasn't the case.

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despite not reading most of the roles for memorization level understanding, just checking to see what they are.

That's an indicative of a brainwave that I do think a wolf doesn't think to fake.

And that pairs with your very chill reaction to my offense. And you didn't claim handmaiden.

And claiming to have not sent in an action is less wolfy than at least 3 of the other claims that came so far this game, one of them being dead wolf and the other 2 up for the chop today.

I am liking Goof more and more here. None of this is good enough for a lock.

Snow isn't lock.

It's just that both are looking like Rogan, people I once had as green, then dipped, and probably should put back in my greens.

Whereas others in my greens as of yesterday, Xi and Bat, should be dropped from them.

Greens means "process not nearly or even partially completed yet, but feels townie on initial cold reads".

I should have been several steps further along the process by now, usually all of this stuff is done by end of day 2.

I have been exceedingly busy the past few days, it's approaching end of day 3 and I still havent done most of this.

The most I did was I re-iso'ed Xihirli after the worm turned today and I can actually see that there's wolfiness there.

I can explain after the flip regardless of what the flip is. I own responsibility for it, I will explain what I saw there.

I need to read up and get present EOD now.

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Popo AV having a private comm channel is wrong, as far as I know. Can anybody comment?

This looks like town POV of no information and dealing with the conflicting or overlapping claims and trying to sort them out.

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This reminds me of Lightfoot's struggle with the tracking of the claims in Return of the Clowns. By Day 4 she was still piecing together the claims and making process errors doing so.

Meanwhile, from the scum's POV, they know all of their own claims, and they know every townie claim is true, and filled out that particular sudoku before they even decided to roleblock Lightfoot N3 and kill Pleonast N3 for being the only remaining people yet to claim anything, and most likely to be dangerous that night because of the pool of roles remaining.

So Lightfoot was a day later still struggling to piece together the literally public information, which scums had already filled out the Day prior, Day 3.

Rogan is town.

Townies keep giving off strong town tells that nobody really knows/remembers to fake.

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I think Gac stating he was outed is a reference to my last post on page 12, where I definitely stated I scried him. Gac - was that your read?

As for Popo - I assumed he did have a network, given how much bravado he stated with the spidermans.

mistakes were made.

I had AV as lock town, Libro as lock town, Popo as lock town, Rogan as markedly more and more townie ever since I deigned to put him as low as yellow, for crying out loud. Man he shot up again fast. And Gac3, well, talking with him in that baron chat, he's just never a wolf in there.

He literally tried to manipulate me in zero ways. I talked my head off, and he sat quietly and asked like one question, and I gave him my "if I die, do this" legacy posts.

One of the things I said to do was tell town to mass claim upon a second wolf flip today.

Just was not predicting it would be Xi or Batcat being in contention, that is certainly a change.

I had Bat and Xi as being green so long as you and Snow were wolves.

Shrug.

My only explanation:



- - - Updated - - -

Let me try that again.



As I was saying, I have seven spidermen out of nine alive players, which is a solve when correct...

Of course, when there were 4 starting scum that's too many townies, so I still have to futz around with my greens.

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Mr Popo , still the wolfiest person ever to exist, but if you keep feeding me mafia then this wolf will devour them one by one. Like Garlic Junior, Popo is in the mood for some Italian for dinner.

AvatarVecna literally untouchable by cold read. Like, I would seriously question mechanical "information" as to guilt here. Like I questioned that "corrupted" cop check I got on that guy who I cold read as innocent and told people to disregard my own check, because I felt it wasn't the same as an alignment scan.

gac3 about half as untouchable based on that chat and how it went down. Also no wolf tries that unless they were there to specifically charm or manipulate me or try to get info from me. No info was needed from me. They already stole my role. He never tried to charm me. he barely spoke. He was not there to manipulate me, press for reads, or change my mind about anything.

So that never comes from wolves. It would be easy to do, it's just that a wolf wouldn't do none of that.

Libro (mech clear, just.... I want to make clear how untouchable the top tier is.)

Rogan Basically solid blue. Noooooottttt quite lock clear forever, but adjacent.

-----------

Snowblaze for how she reacted to things all game. Her moves can have been the ballsiest of wolf plans, but no. We haven't hit that bar yet where we have to check and see, haters gonna hate.

Supagoof for the golden read of the entire village when only 2 woofs remain?

I mean, it's not solid, and he would be leaning really hard into the "be chill" mode to try to escape death here.

Just sitting and being chill and reacting as if the game isn't over for his wolf team is a small bar to clear, but it is still a harder bar to clear than Xi or Bat looking villagery today, and they failed to do so.

BatCatHat (RED), claim seems to be cover for being the mafia starting King role, who stoled muh powerz.

Xihirli (RED), killed a bladescape and a book wombat, probably wishin' he killed AvatarVecna.

[AvatarVecna]

I wanna clarify (again):

Mechanically, bladescape had to be the king, and BCH is not fakeclaiming guard to hide that they're the new priest. The only priest left is me.

However, Batcathat is guilty because not only are their action claims unhelpful and something anybody should know were likely to fail (role-scrying the outed and probably-baned Countess, and role-scrying to search for the princess), but also they're only telling the truth if Book Wombat was bad at being a baner...and BW isn't here to defend themselves anymore, or clarify their actions. We need to check here, today or tomorrow. So far, it's looking like tomorrow.

[Mr Popo]

I am only now just getting that BatCat can't have been a starting king.

For AV to be town, bladescape had to be starting king, stoled my powerz, and died with them. And AV is town, I just never dont believe that.

So AV still has the priest powers, but they were his (hers? sorry if I have been getting the pronouns wrong if I have been) rather than someone done stoled them from me.

However, let's say for example, the mafia have to kill instead of using their power for a night, or the mafia are claiming a role they didnt start with, so as to mask what role they started with.

I just feel like Bat's claim is a bit borked due to how they used their power. It's suspect even though the original theory, Bat starting king, used power on me, stoled my powers, would be wrong because it would have been Vecna doing it instead.

I would believe Vecna coming back and saying, "okay I lied, I did start as King and done stoled your powerz. But here's the thing..."

I would probably read whatever comes next as town, but being a fair juror I would have to examine it for clues of a wolfy mindset.

Still nothing AV has done all game has had such a mindset, and is probably the easiest cold read of town anyone can be, and not just easy, difficult to fake this level of town mindset. To a degree of difficulty I have never seen it from a single wolf in 500 games.

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Approximately the same strength as my Swammi townread in Return of the Clowns.

Literally nothing would have persuaded me Swammi was scum except the game host slapping me in the face and telling me directly he was scum, and here's a screenshot proving that's his role.

The level of difficulty of faking certain mindsets go well beyond a level 5 wolf, even someone like myself who I haven't found anyone who is better at reading town as wolf, I couldn't fake what AV is doing today.

It's beyond me and anyone I've ever seen play.

But I digest.

Bat's not the starting king who stoled my powerz. Noted.

Still not using their power in a way that makes sense from a town POV, and seems like hiding.

Reads like the wolf team in its entirely borked both their claims today straight up.

Ouchies if so. And I feel bad, they were doing pretty okay until the God of Death showed up.

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I wanna clarify (again):

Mechanically, bladescape had to be the king, and BCH is not fakeclaiming guard to hide that they're the new priest. The only priest left is me.

However, Batcathat is guilty because not only are their action claims unhelpful and something anybody should know were likely to fail (role-scrying the outed and probably-baned Countess, and role-scrying to search for the princess), but also they're only telling the truth if Book Wombat was bad at being a baner...and BW isn't here to defend themselves anymore, or clarify their actions. We need to check here, today or tomorrow. So far, it's looking like tomorrow.

I crossposted with you, yeah, I literally just clicked in my head that had to be the case.

And I read it like an hour ago, and it took this long for it to stick.

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And yes, because of how trivial it is to hit Bat, I want to leave Bat alive for after one of AV or Popo dies, so town just destroys Bat without a second thought.

Xi flipping town here means we still hit Bat, but we have to sit here overnight and do some reassessing.

Xi flipping wolf means we sorta just celebrate and think about hypothetical 4th wolf, but cross that bridge when we get there.

Also, certain people are just never 4th wolf, including all my solid blues.

And the unpairings are going to be insanely crushing if this flips red.

[AvatarVecna]

So AV still has the priest powers, but they were his (hers? sorry if I have been getting the pronouns wrong if I have been) rather than someone done stoled them from me.

I'm fine with anything except "it". He/she/they, whatever.

[Mr Popo]

It’s cool, I’ve worked out my death post ahead of time.

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I’m not playing to beat anyone, I’m playing to make a beautiful picture.

You are the most beautiful picture.

I got butterflies in my heart when you posted in palatino linotype about how you murdered off your friends, family, loved ones.

You really know how to make Mr Popo's heart race.

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I'm fine with anything except "it". He/she/they, whatever.

I will always use the most respectful pronouns, I do have trouble with the larger list of alternatives to "they", because I can't remember the various forms, and they are definitely not in widespread usage and they are not really agreed upon.

It's a bit like how atheists do not all identify as "brights" even though some small portion of them do.

Sometimes a group does not agree on how to identify themselves.

Them is fine.

"It" is disrespectful and refers to a person as an object. And Popo objects. See what I did there?

[AvatarVecna]

You are the most beautiful picture.

I got butterflies in my heart when you posted in palatino linotype about how you murdered off your friends, family, loved ones.

You really know how to make Mr Popo's heart race.

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I will always use the most respectful pronouns, I do have trouble with the larger list of alternatives to "they", because I can't remember the various forms, and they are definitely not in widespread usage and they are not really agreed upon.

It's a bit like how atheists do not all identify as "brights" even though some small portion of them do.

Sometimes a group does not agree on how to identify themselves.

Them is fine.

"It" is disrespectful and refers to a person as an object. And Popo objects. See what I did there?

I prefer "they", then.

[Mr Popo]

Also it took me until reading up here this sitting, to understand that there has been a second usage of gac3's power.

It is day 3, sure, but I only got to speak to gac3 literally N2.

So I got confused.

I swear to Vecna I am not faking all these repeated derps and process errors. This is how dumb my brain actually is.

It's a miracle anything productive happens. Think of me like an idiot savant, or like one of those olympic runners with no real legs anymore.

It's only a combination of skill and technology that I get anywhere at all!

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I prefer "they", then.

I will redouble my effort to use the singular them, they, themself.

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I think the best solution is just phasing gendered pronouns out of the language the same way genders for tables and chairs and lamps got phased out of certain languages.

We don't need to assume gender as part of our speech in a pronoun. We can refer to gender directly when that is the subject of the sentence.

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Also excellent solve chart with the powers and claims thus far, AV. Very helpful, very readable and understandable for Popo's tired papa brain, and no squinting and visualizing necessary.

The way it is set up it looks like a sudoku puzzle, actually, where the player and the claim can't overlap with the same player or the same claim or it is visibly wrong to even dum dums like myself.

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...you're right.

Spoiler: Claims

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These are the remaining players and roles. Two of them are scum, but not necessarily lies.

	AvatarVecna	Batcathat	gac3	Libro	Mr Popo	Rogan	Snowblaze	Supagoof	Xihirli	Unused	Unused
Countess	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
King	----	----	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----
Prince	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----
Prince		----	----	----	----		----	----	----
Handmaid		----	----	----	----		----	----	----
Baron	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
Baron	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----
Priest		----	----	----	----		----	----	----
Guard	----	CLAIM	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----
Guard	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	CLAIM	----	----	----
Guard		----	----	----	----		----	----	----

...you're right. That chart is too full. Scum knows if their own claims are fake, they know which roles have been cycling through the two unused slots, and if townies are fakeclaiming, scum probably has enough info to know there's a lie in the web of claims, and they have enough info to track it down. They either already know or they find out tonight, so no point hiding it. I'm the Priest, and I've never not been the Priest, but I don't have a way to prove that.

I'll write things up from my perspective and y'all can decide if it's worth a thunderdome.

Oh, if only Popo could feel the intense energy of Vecna themself firing magical lightning at him.

Popo would transform into Emperor Palpatine and return fire with Force lightning, as is tradition.

Except, no, Popo is pretty sure it's better to take the whoopsie, die, and watch Vecna crush the rest of the wolves here. Vecna's going to be murdered before final whatever at this rate, probably ahead of Libro at the rate they are going. No offense to Libro, but I would definitely hit the person who is a threat to you by solve ahead of the person who is a passive threat to you by indirect pressure since they're always town.

The always townie is less dangerous than the solver who will push you into a grave and crush you with the force of a neutron star.

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Meant to post this as a response to the ludicrous idea of Popo and Vecna thunderdoming here.

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If Xi is flipping mafia here, I wish I could think of a way to appear more threatening to the wolves than Vecna, just so Vecna can hit every mafiosi and also survive the game, as a great big slap in the face to the idea of hitting Vecna on day one for the lulz.

No offense, Rogan.

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Okay, Vecna, here's what you do:

Spoiler: Queen's followers, do not peek in here! Top secret townie stuff.

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You're going to pretend to have all kinds of second thoughts, and waffle around even more than I did, overnight.

That'll help me die before you. Then in the morning "surprise all my reads are the same".

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Vote Count:

Xihirli (7): Snowblaze, Rogan, BatCatHat, Mr. Popo, Supagoof, gac3, Libro
BatCatHat (2): AvatarVecna, Xihirli

---

Last Night's loss hurt more than most, with the one
everyone stayed to protect brought away.
The hardest blow since this all had begun,
the group takes focus to make new headway.

Day goes on, to another the group turns.
She spent most days, pouring over letter,
off in her own world, with other concerns.
Were they the Queen's notes, to her abbeter?

You look for the one that should not stay free;
You all search her room, but she is not in.
A letter - all that's left of Xihirli.
Just her ally arrested, the Baron.

A success once more, to everyone's glee!
As the setting sun leaves, begin Night 3.



Xihirli and Baron Talus, Mafia, were missing/arrested.



(Xihirli's final Letter)

Spoiler: Content Warning: Suicide

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My Dearest Friend,

I remember you. I have never forgotten you.
You were the only one brave enough to go with me. After everyone had gone to sleep, we met at the volleyball net. Back then it wasn’t nearly as brittle to the touch. We waited for the others to show up, but they never did. They probably didn’t think I was serious, but you always knew better. You seemed just as excited as you helped me pull down the old metal canoe that was far too large for either of us. When we dragged it down to the water, I gave you a chance to back out.
Why didn’t you back out?
Instead, you only laughed and climbed into the front. Halfway. That’s how far we made it.
I lied earlier about the best high I ever had–this, this was a real thrill. Out on the water we could yell and laugh and scream because no one could hear us. We were completely free. We talked about how amazing it was going to be to tell the others about what it was like to sail the nuclear beach. What it was like to walk the halls of an abandoned nuke plant and live to tell about it.
And then it watched you die.
I spent years telling myself that the boat tipped on its own, that it had nothing to do with me dropping my oar and reaching too far over the edge to get it. But you and I both know what a lie that is.
I wish you had told me you couldn’t swim.
I remember I couldn’t see well enough to find you. I remember being so shocked by the water at first that I didn’t even notice you weren’t with me. I remember laughing while I bobbed there, trying to flip the boat back over. I remember joking about becoming radioactive while asking for your help. I remember just how loud your silence had been.

I’ve already dragged the canoe down to the water and picked out my oars. I climbed back up here to see you one last time, your light, before I make the trip. I intend to finish what we started. Together.
5:51pm.

Yours,

---

There's no need to even pretend to wait for Countess to check actions anymore, so Days/Nights going forward should all start on time.

Night 3 Ends Saturday, Sept. 18 at 11:30 PM EST /
Sunday, Sept. 19 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
Sunday, Sept. 19 at 5:30 AM CEST

[Snowblaze]

Nice letter, Xihirli. I should go back and reread the thread just to properly absorb all your RP.

Taking suggestions on who I should king tonight.

[Mr Popo]

Nice letter, Xihirli. I should go back and reread the thread just to properly absorb all your RP.

Taking suggestions on who I should king tonight.

Because it does not stop the night kill, target someone with an active power that never finds a wolf, who you think is a townie.

That townie, if town, should confirm that their weak power did not function properly, and therefore, confirms they were using a non killing power.

And confirms you were using a non killing power.

Whether that makes a difference at all to the solve, I don't know. For all I know the mafia can do a role action and then also kill. I didn't see that excluded.

If they can't, I broke the setup just now with my suggestion and that is far too easy.

So I hope it is not the case, actually.

I want to find the last one or two using my brain, not helpful hints from the game host.

[Snowblaze]

I'm pretty sure wolves can kill as well as their own actions. From the OP "each night the mafia can discuss who to kill, as well as their individual actions" (paraphrased) which implies that.

Also in the Priest's role description one of the example feedbacks is "your target targeted X, Y and Z" which I was confused by until I realised that would occur if the target was a Baron who also performed the kill.

So, yeah, that probably won't work.

[Mr Popo]

So, the thing is, you can bus all you like, but with no handmaiden / baner / doctor roles that can target you, all your town credits actually go toward killing you.

Because when you are never murdered at night by the mafia and are alive in final 3, you are a wolf.

That's why I bus as a wolf, but never on day one, and not twice on day 2 and day 3, and then try to survive to endgame.

However, AV found Xi, so I may have had no choice if I were a wolf. Sometimes you gotta do the suboptimal plays.

But at the same time, if I were someone who is a strong suspect right now, bussing Xi doesn't change the game state at all.

And if I were already strongly town read, bussing Xi doesn't do anything except ensure I die in final 3 for never being murdered off.

So, that's why even though the game is like a game of battleship and you can position your ships any way you like and all of it can technically win, piling all your ships in the same corner of the board is one of the worst ways to position your boats.

So, if you see the same player "bussing" all their wolf partners early game, just remind people that if there is no doctor and no mechanically always town roles alive near endgame, it's just wolfy for them to still be alive.

And if that player is just really really a boss at being a villager, then maybe the wolves do the WIFOM thing and try to keep them alive for that kind of bait, but if they do, then the boss villager knows that's happening and can sniff out who is most likely to be that gamble-y and suicidal.

And then the boss villager kills the last wolf, the end.

This game, AvatarVecna is the bossest of villagers, and I am merely the cup bearer to the God of Death.

That's okay, Mr Popo was assistant to the guardian of Earth, Kami, before Kami died.

So Popo is used to being the assistant townie to the greatest townie. It is a role that Popo can play very well indeed.

Should Popo die tonight, I want to remind people that AV is the hardest of the cold read lock clears, and you never tinfoil that they are priest because they stole mah powerz.

Don't.

You have my permission to look at them again if you miss until final 3 and they're alive, and that's it. Otherwise, they get ate by a wolf tonight or soon, so leave em alone and let em own wolfy souls and devour them to sustain the dark energy that powers their existence.

See the mafia be out here poisoning and murdering and stuff, thinking they all big and bad, but we have a lich-god draining the world of all its living energy, with a terrifying evil sadistic genie sidekick, and that's who the good guys are.

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I'm pretty sure wolves can kill as well as their own actions. From the OP "each night the mafia can discuss who to kill, as well as their individual actions" (paraphrased) which implies that.

Also in the Priest's role description one of the example feedbacks is "your target targeted X, Y and Z" which I was confused by until I realised that would occur if the target was a Baron who also performed the kill.

Good, I am actually relieved it isn't that simple.

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Mechanics are already too much of the game's content (for me) but hey, this is the setup and this is the stuff you folks enjoy.

I can dig it. It's not my favorite, but it can certainly be fun. I am having loads of fun here.

I hope BatCat is somehow town and there's more puzzle left to solve.

Or, the wolves had 4 and there's more more puzzle left to solve.

Puzzles are fun.

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So, yeah, that probably won't work.

Well, that removes most of the utility from my idea, however, if you use your power in a manner that should be non-threatening to our solve, it at least proves you didn't use your power in a way that helps the wolf team prevent town from doing the things they want to do.

Don't target AV or myself with the power, hit a suspect, now, actually. Maybe not a consensus one.

Avoid roles that have been claimed that have actual value, like AV's power.

It's just that AV's power is useful and they are the best cold reader here, so the mafia are gonna kill there because it kills two threats in one person.

My power already done got stoled, so they can certainly kill me for finding Emmy but then you wouldn't have an opportunity to win more Popo funbucks, and I rather think the challenge for the wolves should be to try to win my funbucks despite currently having a deficit.

That's a neat way to approach the game going forward.

Those chats aren't useful in the direct sense, but they are useful in the "I confirm these players can see I did this for them" way. Which means you aren't using a different role that same night in a pro mafia way.

If its neutral, its not specifically wolfy, and thats good for town regardless of alignment of the person being asked to do the neutral but confirmable action.

It binds the hands of the scum team because now their best plan is simply murdering rather than something more convoluted and tricksy.

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And I was right, guessing that the setup had a wolf who began as a handmaiden was correct.

Town does not need two of those, and wolf team having one is essential to their ability to win, so they have a role that town is afraid of hitting.

Ah, but you see, when there's already a dead one, I just assume the other is mafia.

Because I design games too.

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Can confirm, I was guarded. Turned into a guard.
That may also explain why Libro could be targeted night 1, I was a handmaid. Sorry for not saying earlier, the part where the swap acts as a roleblock is one I only just read.

With an already dead handmaiden, most everything else in Xi's iso was less relevant unless it was very very clearing for her as town.

Princess role is worth like half an incorrect arrest, maybe a full one, denied to the wolves. But maybe they can get a counterwagon on a townie, too. Still, it is an unpleasant event.

Countess is worth about exactly as much, so that's essentially a masonry that is disconnected and all they have to do is hard claim and they find each other.

The handmaidens are literally overkill, particularly if there are 2.

1 is too many. Setup doesnt need a doctor with those roles.

However, 2, means that wolves can honestly claim and be confirmed to be a role town is a-scared to lose.

But like, I don't care what your role claim is.

In setups where 2 people claim roleblocker, one of them is almost always scum, and in setups where 1 person claims roleblocker, it is scum more often than it is town.

Roleblockers in general are wolfy, but I have seen some examples of them being beastly for town in the past couple years, so I have come around on their utility being potentially positive.

I've been seeing them as very negative for town for a long time. It's a step up from being a Miller.

However, if they survive to near endgame and are town, they can become immensely powerful and pro town.

Handmaiden in this setup acts like a jailkeeper or something like that. Which interferes with the priests, for example, and other town roles. So it is often negative utility unless you stopped the wolf night kill.

Making it block actions against that target makes it slightly less useful for town, but yeah, still overpowered.

Giving the setup 2 and giving one to scum makes a ton of sense. Especially since it can act as a roleblock for actions hitting that target, such as investigatory powers.

Okay! Two wolves down, and one of them even has unpairings analysis we can do! Nice result.

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“I drowned my best friend when I was eleven,” I told them.


Two posts.
But yeah, the quality of the posts and the information on them has not persuaded me to switch votes even though the reason has changed.

See, this is just quality content.

I have never seen a wolf do stuff like that first line before. That was a genuine treat.

10/10 wolfing, heck, the role that was designed to be your cover was the thing that actually doomed you the most from my point of view. That's not even your fault!

[Batcathat]

I hope BatCat is somehow town and there's more puzzle left to solve.

Or, the wolves had 4 and there's more more puzzle left to solve.

Puzzles are fun.

Well, then I have some good news for you.

I suspect my personal puzzle will be coming up with an argument good enough for why Supagoof (or possibly someone else) should be lynched before me. You're welcome to help.

[AvatarVecna]

Well, then I have some good news for you.

I suspect my personal puzzle will be coming up with an argument good enough for why Supagoof (or possibly someone else) should be lynched before me. You're welcome to help.

Town can afford two or three mislynches at this point. If you're so insistent that you'd be a mislynch, why put it off? Spend N3/D4 giving your thoughts on everything, so that we have stuff to help hunt wolves after the flip (regardless of how you flip), and that way we don't potentially get to endgame with you somehow still alive even though you got caught D3. If you're town, the towniest move is to make the sacrifice play tomorrow while still pushing discussion forward; if you know you're a mislynch, you know the game won't be over, so make sure people know that you were telling the truth about whatever it is you say tomorrow.

...or you could go with your plan, where you put all your efforts not into solving the game, but into surviving as long as possible, and otherwise drift around under the radar. That's also a solid strategy for...some players.

[Mr Popo]

Spoiler: Multiquote iso part 1

Show

My Dearest Enemy,

I’m a photographer now. Not so much a passion as it is an excuse. My preferred subjects are dead things–ghost towns, empty houses, broken buildings. There are a surprising number of them.
Interesting, isn’t it, to see something that once held so much value stripped down to its barest bones?
That’s why I came back home, you know. I remembered this place. I believe I was around twelve or thirteen the last time I was here. This forgotten old science station that held so many memories of my childhood, back when marine biology was still something I could stomach. Odd, exchanging my interest in marine life for an attraction to death, instead.
I guess I ought to thank you for that.


Alright let's kill Libro it's been ages since the last good ol' rousing round of kill libro.

It was in this little park that I used to categorize fossils and read the rings of slaughtered tree trunks. I wrote a research paper once that dedicated thirty pages purely to logging birds. I’ve never been happier to forget the words double-crested cormorant.
They used to tell us when we spent our summers here that we could canoe or kayak, whatever we liked. But we couldn’t swim. No, never swim. That was too dangerous, we had to be weary of the water. Even the beach had signs that read “DANGER” for fear the residue from inside you still swirled into the algae-flooded waters, even after all those years. They must have been right, though. To find any signs of life we had to take the river where it met the ocean. There, the muck thinned into salted clouds of green that you still couldn’t quite see through, but somehow seemed more inviting.
We were children, though. And all the precautions made us restless.


So it's now occurred to me that I was really into the idea of a love letter themed game not knowing that love letter is like... a show name or something. I just thought it was letters and I think I'm in a different setting than everyone else.

Eh, in for a penny.

Weighing in on the "reveal town roles" plan: This will always just feel unsporting to me. It's such an obvious move that a lot of games inspired by preexisting stories just don't have a mechanical way to prevent. Heck, I left Seto Kaiba out of Yu-Gi-Oh! purely to subvert the idea "she'd never leave THIS character out"

Spoiler

Show

also the section of the story I was adapting had nothing to do with that windbag

but a lot of games like this just can't have that option built in. This just feels like a move we should ladies' agreement out of.

I wasn’t exactly keen on clerical work, so my co-workers and I would opt to sneak upstairs and watch the courtroom drama. Sometimes, if it was a boring case, as they often were, we would sneak up to the bell tower and get high or drunk instead–come to think of it, I don’t remember ever doing much paperwork.




As much as I want to split Libro's head upon the rocks, the counterclaimer is usually right so let's kill Mr Popo... if such a feat can even be done.

On one of these days, we snuck up there and passed a few cans of beer around, still warm from being hidden outside. I had scanned a bag of pot into evidence earlier that week and suggested we use it. Perhaps if we’d been a little more sober, we might have realized it wasn’t a very bright idea, but we weren’t, and we didn’t. It wasn’t difficult to get, either. It was stupidly easy to walk into evidence, stuff it into my trousers, and walk out. Mixed with the thrill of theft, it was the best high I ever had. We sat around the bell, rusted so bad it had turned Liberty green.
I wonder what it looks like now. Maybe I ought to take photos of that, too.


Okay, went to work and then sleep. Catching up, Popo became the lead lynch for a second then chimed in with a post essentially saying "I meant to fake-claim and get caught. It was all a clever ploy, you see."

And that's fair enough I suppose. It did strike me as... a risk a wolf wouldn't need to take at this point. Now that's no guarantee, but ultimately I have decided to cross out my vote. If Popo sparks discussion and activity like this every day then every day we keep him alive is a good thing at least in that end.

That said, I've not been pulled over to the JeenLeen wagon. Popo's got a lot of information going toward JeenLeen, excepting one crucial thing, and that is experience playing with Jeen. Now I've run a game that Jeen was playing in and I've been in games with them for... what, the last year? It's been a fair few. And I will take a second to say that Jeen always acts like this. Now, in Jeen's defense, or rather, not at all, he is also usually Neutral, so my town-read on him may be off, but looking at his behavior D1 in my Yu-Gi-Oh! game, it was full of statements like "I'll be up-front that I'm aware this totally can look like a wolf defending himself, but..." and "I don't want to answer this too fully -- I wrote up a lot of IF-THEN scenarios then deleted them..." ALMOST saying a lot of things. He also sort of bumbled around with the rules (misidentifying the Baner role, asking over the phase mechanics), and I say that as a proud bumbler around with the rules. Jeen learns by doing and doesn't usually hit his stride day one. His behavior today has been consistent with his town behavior.

So I'm looking for alternate wagons.

Sure, I’ll go for one. When in doubt, butcher the silent, right?

EmmyNecromancer

On mobile, else I would have included a letter fragment.

This town never would let me forget. The newspapers, the interviews, the questions, the prying eyes. They all wanted to know. They talked about how tragic it was, how sad. It was infuriating.
Once, though, one of the journalists looked me in the eyes and asked “so, why did you do it?”
My mother had to pry me off of her.


Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?

We had started telling stories, sharing secrets. I can’t remember who started it now, it might have even been me. They were innocent enough. One girl described how she had stolen a bottle of wine out of her father’s old cellar, hoping that out of the dozens he wouldn’t notice one go missing. Regrettably, it had been some rare bottle they were saving as a twenty-year anniversary treat.
They noticed.


I'd be happy to join in on EmmyNecromancer since she apparently was online but isn't posting.
Like if she's trying to fly under the radar, it's not working, but say something please.

Someone else giggled along and told us of the time in fourth grade when she had chased another girl around a classroom trying to hit her with a pointer. No particular reason. Unfortunately for her, the principal walked in just then. She came home crying from being paddled and lied to her mother. She said the principle had been cruel to her. After winning over her parents, the principal lo and behold, showed up on her doorstep to explain the situation.
When it was my turn, they looked at me with red, expectant eyes.


Emmy's back! Great!

Well, I could be persuaded off of the "kill the silent" wagon as now Emmy is not silent. Supagoof's RL stuff could very well be true but that doesn't make him not a wolf.
Though I do also feel weird about apparently getting a Night Action from Emmy but no chat until just now. Words speak louder than actions, as they say.

The light flickering, was that purposeful? Am I meant to decode it? I don’t know what to make of this game of charades, but I’ll play along. For now.

Cordially,
Your Enemy

That's not really the way I think. I have a top one scumread (Emmy) and since I think I've got one I'm good for now. If that lynch becomes nonviable I'll refocus and try a new one, but that's not really coming up right now. I'll pick the next target later, but I already have this one.
is that enough of a peek into my psyche?

My Dearest Enemy,

I had a fiancé once, until I got rid of him.




Aw, I love you, too.

And while I customarily am opposed to defending myself on principal here, because hey, the worst you can do is kill me, I will respond to this

Saying that I didn't change my stance on Emmy. I have not moved my vote, and have put up a few posts indicating my renewed resolve to leave it where it is even before I was pressured on it. I can be persuaded to switch to Supagoof if an Emmy wagon becomes no longer viable, that is not the same as saying that I have changed my mind.

Multiquote iso part 1.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, then I have some good news for you.

I suspect my personal puzzle will be coming up with an argument good enough for why Supagoof (or possibly someone else) should be lynched before me. You're welcome to help.

Well on a quick iso, Supagoof probably is never scum now unless there are 4.

You could do a quick iso and tell me who else is probably not paired with Xi.

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Spoiler: Multiquote iso part 2

Show

Oh, I’d inflicted pain before as I’m sure you’re aware, but this was more... actively malicious.
I don’t know if I ever loved him.





Can confirm, I was guarded. Turned into a guard.
That may also explain why Libro could be targeted night 1, I was a handmaid. Sorry for not saying earlier, the part where the swap acts as a roleblock is one I only just read.

Though I guess we just don’t know Wombat’s targets. Or if they were something different before.

Looking at Snowblaze, she’s behaving the way she has in the past when town. Open to being proven wrong, after all I believe the king can be a wolf and lying just now wouldn’t be a good wolf move, but I’m reading Snow as town.

My bad on the name of the role you gave me, I am baron. Whichever one lets ne set up two people talking like I did tonight. But why is being the baron bad?

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And I’d be happy to communicate my reasons for connecting us tonight, Snowblaze, when we can converse more privately.

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There are a lot of names and mechanics to keep track of, okay?

Hey big question: Snow used their power to change Xi night 2 right? Am I remembering that wrong?

Night one.

Multiquote iso part 2

[Batcathat]

Town can afford two or three mislynches at this point. If you're so insistent that you'd be a mislynch, why put it off? Spend N3/D4 giving your thoughts on everything, so that we have stuff to help hunt wolves after the flip (regardless of how you flip), and that way we don't potentially get to endgame with you somehow still alive even though you got caught D3. If you're town, the towniest move is to make the sacrifice play tomorrow while still pushing discussion forward; if you know you're a mislynch, you know the game won't be over, so make sure people know that you were telling the truth about whatever it is you say tomorrow.

Of course. It's just that from my perspective the game is basically already won and I would prefer to be alive to see it. Don't worry, I'm sure my general paranoia will keep me looking at everyone else besides Goof too. (Except for Snow, who I guess went from my top wolf read to my strongest non-Libro town read).

[Mr Popo]

Libro, snowblaze, gac3 should all be unpaired from Xi from Xi's own posts.

That's not the entire unpairing, however, because of other people's posts.

For example, AV is also unpaired with Xi for obvious raisins, and that's just for starters.

[Batcathat]

For example, AV is also unpaired with Xi for obvious raisins, and that's just for starters.

I'm probably just missing something that is indeed obvious but what reasons are those?

[Mr Popo]

I'm probably just missing something that is indeed obvious but what reasons are those?

Mainly the part where they drove Xihirli into the ground, and also, being the easiest cold read town this side of Swammerdami.

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Seeing a lot of wolf-wolf potentials between Xihirli and Rogan here.

[Batcathat]

Mainly the part where they drove Xihirli into the ground, and also, being the easiest cold read town this side of Swammerdami.

Huh? Snow created the case against Xi while AV tried to find alternative explanations for Xi's actions and pushed for lynching me first. Not necessarily wolfy (the case against me was good and there could have been an innocent explanation for Xi) but I can't see why it'd be non-wolfy either.

[AvatarVecna]

Huh? Snow created the case against Xi while AV tried to find alternative explanations for Xi's actions and pushed for lynching me first. Not necessarily wolfy (the case against me was good and there could have been an innocent explanation for Xi) but I can't see why it'd be non-wolfy either.

Seconding. I just pointed out that Xihirli being guard instead of baron was weird; Snowblaze is the one that made a giant case proving that it had to be a lie (well, "proving" is a strong word, there were alternate explanations besides "Xihirli 100% lied and also is scum"), and then it turned out that Xihirli was both lying about her role and scum, so my counterarguments weren't all that helpful. That big case is why I'm medium townreading Snow now, regardless of what else has happened: if Snow is scum, that means she saw me being like "wait, shouldn't Xihirli be Baron", assumed that Popo or I would figure out Xihirli was lying scum, and she decided to make the case herself. If Snowblaze/Xihirli were final two wolves, that means Snowblaze intentionally got her own scumbuddy lynched instead of a town!BCH even though BCH was basically confirmed scum in the eyes of town.

The only way Snowblaze is scum is if all the following are true:

1) The game started with 4 scum.

2) The two remaining scum are BCH/Snowblaze.

3) Snowblaze would really rather lose Xihirli and get towncred than lose BCH.

So plan is, tomorrow we test BCH. If BCH flips scum and game is over, Snowblaze is clear because game is over. If BCH flips scum and game continues, Snowblaze goes back into the suspect list. If BCH flips town, Snowblaze is basically locktown, since the only explanation basically requires her to have thrown the game out of paranoia that AV/Popo would 100% catch Xihirli later, and then would question her on why she didn't freak out about the Guard/Baron lie thing, and she wouldn't have an answer.

Personally, I think scum!Snowblaze could've gotten away with making a much weaker case against Xihirli (even just something like "I suspect Xihirli is lying to me about her role", rather than giving all that proof, and then the wagon wouldn't have taken off like it did. BCH would be dead (and probably town, in this hypothetical Snow/Xi scum scenario), and Xihirli would be only slightly suspected instead of getting lynched D3.

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Mainly the part where they drove Xihirli into the ground, and also, being the easiest cold read town this side of Swammerdami.

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Seeing a lot of wolf-wolf potentials between Xihirli and Rogan here.

There's not really too many alternatives tbh. I'm clear, you're clear, Libro is clear. I think Snow is basically clear, you think gac is basically clear. That just leaves the three remaining guard claimants: BCH, Supagoof, and Rogan. All this might be wasted energy if it just turns out to be BCH.

[Mr Popo]

Spoiler

Show

Xihirli: I've yet to see anything from Xihirli that couldn't be easily faked. It's all pretty casual and laidback and going with the flow. Prime real estate for a coasting wolf.

You implied she was baron by mentioning it. Unless you want to suggest that any baron on either team made a QT that didn't involve themselves?

Also, I wanna be very clear that I am not counterclaiming Mr Popo. We are both town.

Xihirli is claiming that she was turned into a guard night one. If this claim is true, she can't have created a QT night two. So baron!Xihirli implies she fakeclaimed guard for ??? reason.

...I hate mechanics.

There are five guards. Two guard claims are confirmed via death (JeenLeen and Emmy, at least at time of death), and now we have Xihirli, Rogan, Batcathat, and Supagoof claiming guard as well. One of these people is necessarily lying, but that doesn't mean it has to be Xihirli. Batcathat flips tonight as either scum!guard or scum!non-guard. If she flips scum!guard, one of Xihirli/Rogan/Supagoof is lying about being a guard. If she flips scum!non-guard, then Xihirli/Rogan/Supagoof aren't lying about their roles.

My bad on the name of the role you gave me, I am baron. Whichever one lets ne set up two people talking like I did tonight. But why is being the baron bad?

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And I’d be happy to communicate my reasons for connecting us tonight, Snowblaze, when we can converse more privately.

- - - Updated - - -

There are a lot of names and mechanics to keep track of, okay?

Wait, Xihirli is claiming to not be Baron? Either Xihirli is lying, or a Baron linked Snow and Xihirli despite being neither. You could also be lying, but Popo king'd you so that would require the scumteam to be you and Popo to frame Xihirli for some reason? I agree with "I hate mechanics".

Scroll up, she's claiming she got confused on mechanic and brainfarted when posting. Idk how easy it is to forget your own rolename though - maybe easier when you've been Prince'd, but it still NAGL. There's some plausible lies that can be pro-town, but "I lied by accident because I forgot what my role was called" doesn't seem like one of them. It really feels like Xihirli is either coasting along playing super-casually, or wants to look less checked-in than she is.

All that said, one of them is definitely lying for some reason. If I were ordering the claimants from most likely lying to least, it'd probably be:

1) Xihirli. I'm still pretty sure that the QT was set up by one of the two of you, and if it was Snowblaze, Popo would know and would've called Snowblaze out for lying about being Prince.

Xihirli

I do not have this in chronological order I dont think. Rushing to get this gathered together.

This plus AVecna's role chart thing is why Xihirli is dead today.

Others may have voted there and pushed it harder, but it never happens without AVecna picking at it logically.

I mean, AVecna is never paired with anyone anyway because they are town and helped bury 2 wolves back to back, and is primarily the reason why suspicion is falling on BatCat.

Now, whether Bat is town or not, the case against bat basically only ever comes from a villager who has been very hard at work solving.

If someone wants to scum case AvatarVecna, they may do so. I will enjoy seeing what you come up with.

And while it is being a good juror to not judge the case before I see it, there's taking it seriously, and there's looking straight faced at a tinfoil hat wearing person in a trash bag talking about how the end is nigh.

For me to take things seriously I need visible behavioral evidence.

If you folks are thinking that there are multiple reasons why Xi is dead, and that Avecna was voting elsewhere, yes, that is all true.

Sure.

But Xi still never dies today without all of the above stuff.

Others may have directly accused Xi, but there was very little heft behind it until AVecna provided the heft.

The heft is what convinced me to drop Xi like a hot potato and utterly annihilate there.

AvatarVecna needs no help being heard, but Vecna is the main reason why I was persuaded and began persuading others.

You don't need to personally make the hit to be the reason why the hit happened.

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Like, I was actively visibly trying to drive Xi into the ground, and Snow laid out her reasons and picked at it too.

Sure.

But the most destructive stuff that brought down Xihirli came from Vecna, even if they were voting elsewhere.

Literally none of the work done against Xihirli was my case work. Share credit with Snow, yes, and also anyone else who severely pushed it before it was clear Xi was actually mafia. Didn't see.

That's why my main credits go to Vecna and Snow here.

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I wish I could easily multi iso.

I just want to isolate Xihirli's posts and Rogan's posts together, no one else.

And multiquoting here has a limit of 10 or something like that, and you have to do batches of 10 and stuff.

Ding. Idea achieved.

There is no such post restrictions on other websites. I can compile a multi iso there easily, and transfer the work here without posting elsewhere.

The alternative for lazy people is to simply scroll down quickly every page to each and every one of Rogan and Xihirli's posts one by one, and read them in chronological order yourself.

It will take, let me see how long.

Be back I am timing myself.

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Oh, duh, I solved this problem years ago.

Ignore mode everyone but the people you are isoing, silly Popo.

[Batcathat]

If someone wants to scum case AvatarVecna, they may do so. I will enjoy seeing what you come up with.

And while it is being a good juror to not judge the case before I see it, there's taking it seriously, and there's looking straight faced at a tinfoil hat wearing person in a trash bag talking about how the end is nigh.

If I have the time I might actually give it a shot, if only for the practice (I might try the "assume scum" approach AV did on you) and to possibly silence the tinfoil trash person that is my subconscious. I see your point about unparing Xi and AV better now, even if I don't think it's as solid as you seem to (then again, I'm not sure I'm as confident in anything as you seem to be about almost everything )

[AvatarVecna]

I wish I could easily multi iso.

It's so much easier on mafiauniverse where the forum is set up to make that exact mechanic simple.

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If I have the time I might actually give it a shot, if only for the practice (I might try the "assume scum" approach AV did on you) and to possibly silence the tinfoil trash person that is my subconscious. I see your point about unparing Xi and AV better now, even if I don't think it's as solid as you seem to (then again, I'm not sure I'm as confident in anything as you seem to be about almost everything )

If that's what you wanna spend your time on, I pity you. A not-insignificant number of my posts are me ISOing other players, which means you need to not only scumread my general gamestate statements, but you also need to forcibly-scumread all my reads to see if it makes sense that scum would be reading people a certain way.

[Mr Popo]

If I have the time I might actually give it a shot, if only for the practice (I might try the "assume scum" approach AV did on you) and to possibly silence the tinfoil trash person that is my subconscious. I see your point about unparing Xi and AV better now, even if I don't think it's as solid as you seem to (then again, I'm not sure I'm as confident in anything as you seem to be about almost everything )

Confidence is a state of mind.

Let's say you found the smoking gun on Xihirli, which was that they claimed to be a Guard, but were a Baron in order to create a QT.

Suppose you found that suspect, and you went and asked Xi about it.

"Hey, Xi, correct me if I am wrong but don't you need to be the Baron to make the QT?"

And then Xi goes "yes, you're right. I had a brain fart, I was a guard, now I am a baron. Sorry for the mixup."

And then you went "Okay. That doesn't seem right to me, I think you'd remember better if that were true, but I am not sure".

And you know what happens after that?

Nothing.

Nobody cares, nobody votes there, nobody pushes there.

What gets people excited?

What gets people interested?

What gets little things blown into big disasters of epic proportions?

What makes mountains out of molehills?

What creates a massive megaphone and a wagon that destroys wolfy souls?

"HEY GUYS, THERE IS A WOLF RIGHT HERE, COME OVER AND HELP ME DUNK IT, THIS ONE IS LOCK SCUM FELLAS AND GALS! HOLY POPO ON A STICK AM I GOSH DARNED SURE ABOUT IT!!!"

What happens?

Wagon.

Dead wolf.

Even if I was confident on everybody being a wolf before this one and I was wrong.

You know, if you have decided that players A, B, C, D, and E aren't likely to be a wolf, and then someone does something wolfy, it's pretty easy to get confident in something little.

And you decide that players A, B, C, D, and E aren't likely to be a wolf by pinning them against a wall and shoving all the evidence they could ever possibly be a wolf down everyone's faces and check for reactions, both from your suspect and everyone else.

Being confidently wrong gets you a certain set of reactions and night kills, and being confidently right creates a very different set of reactions and night kills.

And when my suspect hits back so hard I don't believe my own case, knocks me on my back, and makes me taste my own blood, well then, that might be a villager.

And besides?

That's how I fight.

[Batcathat]

If that's what you wanna spend your time on, I pity you. A not-insignificant number of my posts are me ISOing other players, which means you need to not only scumread my general gamestate statements, but you also need to forcibly-scumread all my reads to see if it makes sense that scum would be reading people a certain way.

I know, even if I start it's probably unlikely that I get anywhere close to finished. It's not even that I have that strong suspicions against you and more that I don't like how much Popo seems to trust you. If you are a wolf, you and Popo (whether another wolf or townie) can probably steer the discussion enough that you'll never get lynched.

But hopefully I'm overthinking things and Goof is the last wolf (I don't really understand why Popo suddenly likes him so much better, I need to reread some posts, I think).

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Being confidently wrong gets you a certain set of reactions and night kills, and being confidently right creates a very different set of reactions and night kills.

And when my suspect hits back so hard I don't believe my own case, knocks me on my back, and makes me taste my own blood, well then, that might be a villager.

And besides?

That's how I fight.

You're probably right and I'm well aware of the benefits of confidence (the people used to my wishy-washy wolf-reads here would probably be surprised to see what a cocky bastard I am at work ). I think it's mostly how inexperienced I still am at this (it's my sixth game in total and your... six hundred? Six thousand?) and that I usually need something to base my confidence on.

[AvatarVecna]

But hopefully I'm overthinking things and Goof is the last wolf (I don't really understand why Popo suddenly likes him so much better, I need to reread some posts, I think).

That one's simple, I think: if there's only three wolves, and BCH is caught in a lie, then BCH is probably the last wolf, and thus everybody else is town, no matter how scummy they've looked up until now. We can consider other people sure (there's the possibility this is a 4 scum game and the possibility that you're town (which Popo has wished for because he wants to continue puzzle-solving?), but for now, everybody gets townread except you on principle.

I think he also made a post explaining that Supagoof has been waaaaaaaaay too casual and chill this whole game despite things going to hell in a handbasket at lightspeed.

[Rogan]

About the chart, we also have Emmy who claimed prince turned guard and Xi claiming maid turned guard.
So, assuming they are telling the truth, the discarded cards are prince and maid.

I know somebody isn't telling the whole truth. That's Xi. It would make more sense for a Baron to connect someone with himself. And Xi can't be a guard, since I am a guard. But no useful info from my side. Popo wasn't the Priest at end of night 1. But he claimed to have been kinged before I could ask about this, so no new info.
Snow is not the Baron at the end of n2. That's no new info either.

So, right now we have one guard claim more than possible, two Priests claims for day 1, with no way to clear either. (At least, I can't see such a way).

The double Priest claim is more concerning, since Mr Popo and AV are on the top of many read lists and the activity list.

The Guard claims are not that open and shut. Is there anybody who would like to withdraw a claim and give their reasoning?

Confidence is a state of mind.

Let's say you found the smoking gun on Xihirli, which was that they claimed to be a Guard, but were a Baron in order to create a QT.

Suppose you found that suspect, and you went and asked Xi about it.

"Hey, Xi, correct me if I am wrong but don't you need to be the Baron to make the QT?"

And then Xi goes "yes, you're right. I had a brain fart, I was a guard, now I am a baron. Sorry for the mixup."

And then you went "Okay. That doesn't seem right to me, I think you'd remember better if that were true, but I am niot sure".

And you know what happens after that?

Nothing.

Nobody cares, nobody votes there, nobody pushes there.

What gets people excited?

What gets people interested?

What gets little things blown into big disasters of epic proportions?

What makes mountains out of molehills?

What creates a massive megaphone and a wagon that destroys wolfy souls?

"HEY GUYS, THERE IS A WOLF RIGHT HERE, COME OVER AND HELP ME DUNK IT, THIS ONE IS LOCK SCUM FELLAS AND GALS! HOLY POPO ON A STICK AM I GOSH DARNED SURE ABOUT IT!!!"

What happens?

Wagon.

Dead wolf.

Even if I was confident on everybody being a wolf before this one and I was wrong.

You know, if you have decided that players A, B, C, D, and E aren't likely to be a wolf, and then someone does something wolfy, it's pretty easy to get confident in something little.

And you decide that players A, B, C, D, and E aren't likely to be a wolf by pinning them against a wall and shoving all the evidence they could ever possibly be a wolf down everyone's faces and check for reactions, both from your suspect and everyone else.

Being confidently wrong gets you a certain set of reactions and night kills, and being confidently right creates a very different set of reactions and night kills.

And when my suspect hits back so hard I don't believe my own case, knocks me on my back, and makes me taste my own blood, well then, that might be a villager.

And besides?

That's how I fight.

I guess I have to agree with you that I wasn't confident enough to shout Xi is wolf and nobody noticed. But I did call her out first.

But I had another problem at this time I was more concerned about. I was under the impression that AV was Counter Claiming to your Priest. And a Wolf there would be much more dangerous than Xi.

By the time Snow made her case (slightly expanded and definitely louder), AV had clarified she wasn't accusing you but wanted to correct a mistake you made the whole time. Shouting, very confident and very wrong that there was no way a townie could have the Priest.

I don't want to talk a lot at night. I don't think talking would benefit town. But since I can't be very active the next two days AND you are clearing Snow for making the same case I did first? I couldn't remain silent.

[Batcathat]

That one's simple, I think: if there's only three wolves, and BCH is caught in a lie, then BCH is probably the last wolf, and thus everybody else is town, no matter how scummy they've looked up until now. We can consider other people sure (there's the possibility this is a 4 scum game and the possibility that you're town (which Popo has wished for because he wants to continue puzzle-solving?), but for now, everybody gets townread except you on principle.

I haven't been caught lying though. I have been "caught" saying something that, again, could very well be true if neither BW nor myself used our powers the most optimal way N1. You said it yourself (at least I think it was you, someone said it), people often protect themselves N1. There was someone who was probably a better target, sure, but clearly BW decided to protect themselves (or some third person) for whatever reason.

But I've made this argument like five times already without much luck, so I'll probably only be proven right in death. I suppose I can live (well, y'know) with that.

I guess I have to agree with you that I wasn't confident enough to shout Xi is wolf and nobody noticed. But I did call him out first.

Her. And I don't know about anyone else but I guess I did forget that you said this. Makes me feel even better about town reading you, at least.

[Mr Popo]

That one's simple, I think: if there's only three wolves, and BCH is caught in a lie, then BCH is probably the last wolf, and thus everybody else is town, no matter how scummy they've looked up until now. We can consider other people sure (there's the possibility this is a 4 scum game and the possibility that you're town (which Popo has wished for because he wants to continue puzzle-solving?), but for now, everybody gets townread except you on principle.

I think he also made a post explaining that Supagoof has been waaaaaaaaay too casual and chill this whole game despite things going to hell in a handbasket at lightspeed.

It's like a sudoku puzzle in a way.

There were 9 living players before the Xi flip.

One of which is a freebie, me. I know me, y'all know me by now.

AvatarVecna just stone cold easy read based on the day one and the day two and the day three. Rocketed up to the top of my town quick because no wolves be fakin' how they play in the past 500 games I played. So I am looking forward to the frequency of scums playing like AV did this game to be 1:501 games. I find the idea entertaining.

That leaves 7 left.

Libro, consensus mechanically not a wolf even in the oddball world where scums got a setup with no Countess at game start.

That leaves 6 left.

Gac3, does not behave like a wolf under pressure, and I hit there a lot harder than I hit Vecna. Then he put me in a chat with him and proceeded to enact zero wolfy agendas, whereas if you're a wolf-gac3 I think you might want to make a chat with someone you may want to ever persuade into thinking you are town. How does gac know he'd be able to sway me after I went at him? He doesn't.

That leaves 5 left.

Proposing the Countess claim and Princess claim strategy is so "out there", look at me, I'm a bad, bad, bad mafioso, stole cold, down to the bone. That can be a wolf, but it's on the lower end of the examples, in terms of overall frequency. Wolves don't like to be the reason why the town outs its own powers, because even now, after being the main opponent of Xihirli, the power swing in favor of wolves when those two roles claim may even be worth the price of a Snowblaze in return. The idea can backfire so badly for town that Snow will always be blamed if it does. So that's less likely to be a wolf, but I pressured there, I plopped suspicions, I barked thunderdome instructions, the whole smash. I questioned her claim, I put her on the spot, I even blocked her trying to stop a scummo from murdering, but that's not how the king works. Still, I was able to confirm to her that's what I did with that power, at least. Not useful to me, potentially useful to someone else.

So mostly, 4 left to look for wolves in. Can have skipped one already, but there had to be at least 2, possibly more, in the remaining 5. Now we're down to four.

BatCatHat is one of the four.

Xi is one of the four.

Rogan is one of the four.

Goof is one of the four.

And of those, Rogan seemed the most probable to be dangerous because I kept getting good feels when I read their posts all game. So that indicates a danger, because when I feel you are town, but I don't have great reasons to town read you, you can be a skilled wolf owning my soul. So I picked at that, but without any evidence corroborating that suspicion, it kind of fizzled.

I may have something better now that I know Xi is a wolf. Their interactions look pairing, and Xi's behavior toward many others, and their behavior toward Xi, look unpairing.

Then Goof I had as possibly wolfy for sorta softing a handmaiden claim after the other one died. But my read there was wrong, and Goof's mindset seems wrong for a wolf. Emotions and votes placed and reasons given don't feel quite "caught and cornered entire scum team" wolf.

So even if Goof is right the team isn't just Goof and they have someone fooling me, or else they would be more visibly tense.

Which leads to Xi and BatCat, who I had no strong evidence for or against all game, just good vibes mainly, and some posts that seemed like solving.

That's generic and an easy bar to clear.

So whenever I have any doubts, at all, about Goof, or Snowblaze, or Rogan being a wolf, where do I fit 2 suspects?

There are only 2 names left.

Now, one of them flipped wolf. The other is likely to flip wolf.

If that one does not, then flip a switch, and I look at Rogan again, or Goof again, someone.

Someone's gotta be a wolf, and when you narrow it down by boxing in the suspects and removing townies from The Box (following Newcomb's "Boxing in the wolves" strategy on Mafia Universe's University subsection) then your odds of hitting wolf drastically increase when your townies removed from consideration.

And it's a great way to check if your pile of townies is probably correct.

Because if your pile of townies is correct, then wolves will flip in the remainder a lot. Maybe 50 percent of the time or better, which is a lot better than starting from square zero and blind guessing.

And, if your pile of townies is incorrect, the big clue that is so is when you ever get to a point where your pile of suspects keeps being town.

Like my first 3 suspects on day one, major suspects, one died flipped town, another got cold read town quickly, another died and flipped town.

That's zero for three and that means you got 3 or more wolves getting town read.

In order for 3 wolves to exist in this game, or more, they have to exist somewhere.

Opening your mouth wide enough to fit 3 names as all being scum and the same time means necessarily that you are going to drool a bit and possibly look like a buffoon if your names are wrong.

But you quickly, far more quickly, get to a conclusion that your names are wrong when you are checking several names at once each day instead of just one.

Which helps because then you arrive at better informed conclusions BEFORE 6 different townies die off.

Anyway, I am just in my preliminary stage of reading. I spotted the interactions and they seemed the worst out of all the live players up to the first few pages of the game, and got stalled since then due to eating, wife needing me, and being dead tired.

Will pick it up later. But for now? I can buy a world where Bat isn't lock wolf.

As a townie I am obligated, at any point outside of LYLO, to consider my suspect to be town and try solving the game with them as a fully cleared role in my mind, and try to see the game state from that perspective.

because when I can clearly do so, and everything they do matches with being townie, and everything others do matches with them being a townie, I feel better about not hitting there today, I can put it off a bit longer.

Perhaps I find enough wolfy candidates that you never ever die this game, not by town day arrests.

And I can't keep awake. Gotta zzz now.

- - - Updated - - -

I guess I have to agree with you that I wasn't confident enough to shout Xi is wolf and nobody noticed. But I did call her out first.

But I had another problem at this time I was more concerned about. I was under the impression that AV was Counter Claiming to your Priest. And a Wolf there would be much more dangerous than Xi.

By the time Snow made her case (slightly expanded and definitely louder), AV had clarified she wasn't accusing you but wanted to correct a mistake you made the whole time. Shouting, very confident and very wrong that there was no way a townie could have the Priest.

I don't want to talk a lot at night. I don't think talking would benefit town. But since I can't be very active the next two days AND you are clearing Snow for making the same case I did first? I couldn't remain silent.

Yeah but you are two different players, two different player slots, and I see pairing stuff between you two earlier in the game that I don't see as much with Snowblaze.

So it's likely to be between you and Bat here, at least, until I can find evidence I believe does unpair one or both of you with Xi.

Unpairing is not the same as accusing, wolves can accuse wolves all the time. Unpairing is when the behavior between you uniquely doesn't happen much, if at all, when you are both wolf partners.

Which means having a lot of experience playing with wolves doing stuff to get town read, and discounting most of what they do as null or wolfy.

I gotta find stuff townies do and scums do not. I can probably get there.

I know one thing, I can't think straight right now. I cannot focus, and I can't finish this iso. And I can't even write full sentences without making typing mistakes and closing my eyes.

So, Popo is resting.

I will pop back in with actual solving thoughts and complete my processes on people as I can.