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Thread: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-18, 05:14 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Corrected.
I don't blame you for forgetting. It happened a lot at this time.
But I am annoyed about Mr Popo not saying anything. He puts so much energy into the game, I feel like he should have noticed.
And perhaps a bit annoyed at myself, since I obviously didn't make my case heard.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-18, 05:20 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
- Location
- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Keep in mind I have had 72 hours where I got 8 total hours of sleep in between, I work and travel 10 hours a day, I watch my infant or my son for another 6 hours a day.
I am usually dead this late into a game, so I did not anticipate I would still be where I would normally be at the START of a day 2 solving effort, after day 3 has ended and night began.
But dividing my remaining awake minutes between diving old games, reading up on current posts, skimming the big walls, and doing my extensively time consuming processes means my IQ points will be cut in half already, and then in half again when I am drunk-levels of tired. And I am putting as many or more hours into a game elsewhere simultaneously.
So if you're expecting stellar reading comprehension right now, you're expecting too much.
Just note, with my ability to think cut into 1/4 and with a LOT of unfinished processes, I have 2 dead wolves and 1 dead townie under my name, and a lot of folks called townie with strong reasons that can't be overturned.
Eventually everyone who isnt lock town or lock scum gotta be under the microscope, completely finished process or not.
Worry not, I am voicing a feeling, I won't call for death without demonstrating where I have fully convinced myself it is true. And I have already tried to town read you twice, once for starters, and once again after becoming concerned.
My goal is to nail the town read on every townie. Even if I suspect there, even if I have evidence.
My goal is to find every townie, and the wolves are every name that is not those names, even if they did literally nothing wolfy, but nothing particularly clearing either.
Sometimes I dont have a case someone is a wolf.
And in those times, I have a case 5 other people are NOT a wolf. Which is what I got now.Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-18 at 05:22 AM.
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2021-09-18, 07:23 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I could say exactly the same about me. The difference between us is, I am much better at being honest about my actual influence.
I give you the Emmy vote. You called her out fast and made a strong point about the activity. This lynch might not have happened without you.
But Xi? You had her pegged as town the whole time. You even asked the wolves to avoid killing her. Only after Xi was caught in a lie, with no good excuses left you hard reversed. This lynch is not your work. This lynch is despite your work.
Now, I didn't catch Emmy and only joined the wagon when it was inevitable. But I don't want to take credits for this lynch. It was handled to me on a silver plate.
But Xi? I was unwilling to vote her d1. She is entertaining to have in the game and d1 lynch is wrong more often than right. D2, she lost this protection. But she was read as town by multiple players and so I didn't look too closely. When I was prompted to look there, I noticed there was no good concrete content to read her as town. I even pointed this out for everyone to see. I was mostly ignored. (This seems to happen a lot, I'm afraid). I am not confident enough to lead the charge unless I have very good reasons to be confident. So I don't try hard to find a wolf behind Xi, while most players read her as town.
But when there was a good reason, I immediately said "Xi is lying". Only to be ignored and robbed of my achievement. That's not fair!
I am not good at reading people. I am good at mechanics, the part of the game you have the least interest on.
Spoiler: Examples
I fought against Xi in day 2 of PJ. I saw the mech explanation for Wolf Xi. I wasn't the first to notice, but I think I was the most vocal player to push there. I didn't get support. So I finally, before going to bed, give some alternative explanation with benefits of doubt and change my vote to the other target of the day. Next time I see the game, the wagons moved and Xi flipped wolf, after a literal coin flip. To add to this insult? The other possible target was snow, another wolf and outed by fake claiming a role someone else had. Not enough insult? The wolves noticed what I was doing, which allowed them to use me to kill for them n2.
Day 3, I come out at the start of day to say we should kill the vig, without claiming. I knew town would need time to hunt for real wolves instead of going for the easy and wrong target that was me. In the middle of the day, I claim vig. I know the wolves know. Remaining hidden is not going to help town. I don't want to allow the wolves to use me more than strictly necessary. The only reason I lived to see the end of PJ (where I killed myself to hand a win out to a helpful neutral) was AV, back from the dead, mech cleared townie and literally the best player to coordinate the town network.
Or how about Crazy Idea? I was the one who noticed we could get proof of the elimination of the cult by flipping the outed Cultist instead of the outed Serial killer.
I was the one to point out blocking the guy who claimed Jack and was scried Mafia would be necessary to ensure he dies and could give us a good guess on the question "how big is this team".
At the same time, as snow pointed out, I reacted poor to her calling me out as possible scum. I am not good at actively deceiving people.
Or just take a look at the recruitment threads. I am there, asking about the rules and the mech all the time. Because, mech is logical. People are not. And since I ask those questions before alignment is rolled, you can't honestly accuse me of trying to further some kind of scheme.
Since I am better at mech, that's where I put my mind. I try to understand motivations as well, but I am worse at this part. When in doubt, I look at other players and let them influence my decisions.
If I ever get out and say "This guy is a wolf, I am certain!" without presenting my mech evidence? I am a wolf. Even if I am right about this, I will have additional info and be more likely to be a badguy. And before you try to use this and d1: I was comfortable sitting on Jeen. Not certain.
And to make one thing clear: this is not meant to accuse anybody. It's meant to explain why I am annoyed about some things, like the way you want to share credits for the Xi lynch with Snow. The Xi lynch rightfully belongs to me. I called her out first. I wouldn't have allowed for it to be ignored forever.
I don't think you do this with ill intend. It's more likely to be a difference in approach and character. But you do it. And I am annoyed.
Honest criticism is something I can accept. Honest and deserved compliments as well. But robbing my accomplishments? That's where I draw the line.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-18, 08:14 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Hi Rogan. Sorry for the whole "my day two sucked" thing contributing to Xihirli being ignored.
I do think pointing out Xihirli's lie is likely to be towny. Though no-one said towncred is a finite resource. You get some, I get some, AV gets some. I also think your frustration at not being given it and being POEd is towny.
And I can definitely see why you're frustrated. When you think you should be obvious town and people are still suspecting you, it can be pretty tough to deal with. (See: me, early day two)
I think you're town. I'm a lot less confident in that than I am in a lot of my other townreads, but there's no way I'm voting for you unless the game's still going by the time we've flipped BCH and Supagoof. Which I'm fairly sure it won't be.
I'll definitely make more of an effort to pay attention to your reads and take them into account in future.
(Side note: I wasn't implying your reaction to pressure on Craziest Idea was poor. Just that I felt like I had an idea what it looked like. You were a very competent wolf. Actually, I'm going to go reread Craziest Idea and make sure there aren't the same patterns here.)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-18, 09:07 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Hello Snow. I think we can share credit and blame. I could have been a bit more insisting, you could have been a bit more attentive.
And if you feel like it after the game, I'd be glad to discuss the previous games in more detail, but I don't want to distract from this game too much. If you have a specific question and you feel like you need to ask it to understand this match better, it's okay to ask. If you are just curious, let's keep this out of this match.
But thank you for the compliment. I am usually very self-critical, so an honest assessment of my capabilities is appreciated.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-18, 11:37 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
- Location
- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Ineffective argument: I know I am town and therefore no matter what you say, inconsistency is not something you can ever persuade me with.
Inconsistency is the hobgoblin of wolfy minds, I said that already this game, and it is in my guide.
I bagged dozens upon dozens of wolves attacking townies for being inconsistent.
Meaning, suggesting I have to treat two player slots as equal for doing similar actions.
Friendo, I love ya as a player, and when this game is over, whether you hate me or love me back is up to you.
But I can absolutely never, ever, ever as a townie treat you as identical to me.
You can see the stuff I am doing is getting me town read, and you can copy that as a wolf.
I know for a fact I am town and that wolves exist outside of my own body.
If they do EXACTLY the same things I do all game, if the town read Xi, if they town read the inactives, if they town read BatCatHat, if they accuse the same villagers I did literally all game long, I am still not the same player slot as they are.
And one or both of us could be a wolf to anyone else this game, but you're directing those comments at me.
Those comments are meant for the audience, not for me.
You know for a fact that I can and indeed should suspect you for making the same wrong guesses I did, and making a correct guess on a wolf.
None of that is remotely lock clearing. I have yet to argue I am lock clear and I told everyone to put me directly at the bottom of their suspects list so I can devour everyone else who drops to the bottom, and never put me in their town core until the game is over and all the wolves are dead.
In game:
Down here, in the fighting pit with all the other suspects, I am a bad, bloodthirsty, dangerous man and if you call me odd, strange, weird, interesting, off, inconsistent, or vote me, or discredit me, or complain that your bussing strategy is not working, I will drop my case work against everyone else and go directly for you next and not stop until one or both of us is dead.
Out of game:
If you're a townie, I am sorry bro, but all the other townies took my suspecting them like a champ. You gotta do the same or you're flinching.
That's not fair!
Xihirli claimed the claim strategy Snow proposed was unsporting.
I in fact suggested that you trying to kill Vecna every game was unfair.
Fairness is not part of this game. I can accuse you for zero reasons, like you did to Vecna on day one.
And that, ironically, is fair.
You are getting exactly the level of fairness you gave to others.
And inconsistency is the hobgoblin of wolfy minds.
I am not you, and I know I am town. That is sufficient to suspect you.
I technically need zero other reasons in a guessing game, but page 1 is my bigggggggg reason.
But robbing my accomplishments? That's where I draw the line.
You will not be town read for it.
- - - Updated - - -
This is Page 1 of an unfinished multi iso.
Checking Bat and Rogan and Xihilrli together, to determine which of Bat or Rogan I think goes next due to their interactions with everyone else, and also, their interactions with Xihirli.
On the theory that Mafia will be hitting townies looking to provoke claims, Bat and Snow should be unaligned here.
As a reminder, that means specifically not mafia/mafia or "wolf/wolf" as I prefer to say. They can in theory both be town, despite being on the low end of my reads list.
Now, one wolf can always go "I don't endorse trust or like this plan, being proposed by my fellow wolf" for distancing. That is absolutely trivial. However, I can't reach such a conclusion yet. I can't say this is unpaired with Snow just yet, but much later on, oh yes it would seem so.
This looks pairing with Xihirli, because it is so weak, so if and when Xi flips later, it wasn't a "strong" town lean.
Slight town leans I don't trust too much. It reeks of wanting to leave your options open.
On the theory that Mafia will be hitting townies looking to provoke claims, Rogan and AV are absolutely unaligned here. That one is trivial. And also, Rogan is interested in Book Wombat, and can have been the wolf who found out Book Wombat's naughty secret and killed him N2 based on stuff learned N1.
This is definitely pairing with Xihirli.
And absolutely unpairing with Vecna.
And reads like a wolf talking to a townie Snowblaze, but I can't determine that, it can be a dances with wolves moment.
Kind of a quickly defensive reaction to me pointing out the reasons for him voting Vecna were not quite sporting, old chap.
Rolefishing.
This post is pocketing or pairing with BatCatHat. That is no reason to put someone on a do not remove list at all, that is an excuse.
Like, I didn't want to remove Xihirli because their posts amused me, but the instant I saw anything at all condemning, I yeeted that one straight into the sun.
Not liking removing a certain player is not the same as not wanting to murder the living popo out of all wolves, no matter who they are.
In the event of 4 mafiosi I would wager heavily these are the last 2 mafiosi right here already, just from page 1.
Probably town needs to destroy BatCatHat and Rogan in any order, and I would start with Rogan here, because as I said, BatCatHat isn't going anywhere, and is already straight up outed.
Rogan is the only one where you risk a lot of Popo funbucks when it is wrong. So I am wagering half of my remaining Popo funbucks that I gained from hitting 2 wolves on accusing Rogan.
If that is wrong, I reserve the remainder of my winnings for one last accusation, which Gac3 can reveal after I die tonight, and have that accusation be coming from proven town, as an extra bonus.
That's page 1.
It took me 30 minutes for this, and I have to go to work.
Good night.Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-18 at 11:38 AM.
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2021-09-18, 12:43 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2021-09-18, 12:54 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2021
- Location
- The Lookout
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Checking in at work, I literally brought my laptop so I can double check this all still before Night ends and I die when the theory is correct.
I still want to find a way to disprove the theory.
Even though Rogan just did the most massive spike in wolfiness it is possible to have.
1) "Not fair". This is a game where people vote for other people because it's funny to yeet them Day One every game. And now we see why a wolf might have wanted AVecna gone from the game, because THEY are a threat to wolves and a massive one. Is that fair of me to point out?
When you vote for people for the topmost of unfair reasons and then complain to me about being fair, that gets yeeted directly into the sun, absolutely zero Popo funbucks remain. You are BANKRUPT now.
2) Discrediting me. You can try, my friend. And if you do, I will insist that upon my death, you die next, because I always flip town, and town always survives the game when you and Bat are wolves.
That's not even a hard choice. We thunderdome tomorrow, to the death, if I am alive to do so.
I will never not vote you anymore. That's gone, unless I specifically find stuff that locks you town now.
I will do my diligence and look. I will attempt to be fair, a fair juror, to someone who was blatantly unfair to others.
3) Asking me to treat his slot and my slot the same when we can be unaligned and are not the same slot, period.
That is always a wolfy argument. A townie RARELY makes that argument, and when they do, they back off when I argue this exact argument back.
It's much like treating the inactives the same. No, I do not have to do that, when there are reasons why they are not the same, and frankly, even if there were NO reason, and both were flat out inactive, if I choose one arbitrarily, and someone else accuses the other arbitrarily, and they insist I have to vote for THAT inactive instead of mine, that's wolfy to me.
I once chose an inactive over a different one merely because that inactive had yet to get a single vote but the other inactive did, which means, it was more likely that the other inactive would eventually potentially be unpaired with the active player voting them.
Purely for that reason and LITERALLY NO OTHER REASON, and this exact example is cited in my guide and you can link to the game and read it yourself, I voted for a zero posting wolf on Day One and I yeeted that guy straight to heck when town finally got around to pressuring him and he was forced to fake claim cop.
I voted him 3 straight days because no one else wanted to do so, and I found that wolfy for an inactive.
It was the single most alignment indicative thing about them.
Which is why I decided to go straight at Emmy D2 this game. After I argued that the inactives should be left alone, everyone was cool with it.
A bit too cool, if both were town.
Two inactives are not the same slot, not the same person, and DO NOT have to be the same alignment.
One player who town reads Xi, and Bat, and the inactives, and then reverses, is NOT the same player slot as someone else who does the same thing and was quicker on the draw with removing Xi from their town list. Under external pressure, if they were a wolf. External pressure I and Vecna and others created by being townie and finding each other town.
We are not the same player. We are probably never the same alignment. I do not have to treat you as identical to me, and why should I?
That argument makes zero sense for a townie to argue when directed at me.
But if a wolf makes that argument, phrased to me, but intended for the wider audience, that is theater.
It is attempting to manipulate opinions.
It is wolfy self-focus. And inconsistency and hypocrisy arguments leveled against me always put you directly in my line of fire and I will not relent anymore, unless I personally find a defense for you against my own argument, or someone else I trust does so, and their evidence is staggering to me.
These are not ad hoc justifications for wolf reading you. Because I've been compiling my history for reference for my guide, I can pull at least 6 games at your request for you to see me dunking wolves for the hypocrisy and inconsistency angle.
Without breaking a sweat, I can find at least 6 examples. Just like I can find examples in literally every game for "weird, odd, interesting, strange, off" and "unfair".
When your reaction to 2 dead wolves, one of which you can claim a part of, but not getting townread for it, the top thing on your mind is that you're not being town read, as opposed to where the wolves are who are not you?
That's supremely wolfy.
4) Wolfy self focus.
Not "who cares what popo says. I know for a fact he is wrong, and because I know I am town, I can find the remaining wolves better than he can while he tunnels me, AND I can dunk them because I will probably be alive tomorrow, and there's not a thing popo can do about it, AND when I flip town if he does dunk me, guess what, people will listen to my advice and my case and dunk my wolves, and town will win despite Popo attempting to throw."
That's how a townie thinks.
That's why when I go hard against every other townie this game, they have not given a single piece of popo.
They don't care, because all it does is discredit me when I am wrong, and they have wolves to find.
Wolves care, because when they flip, they are doomed and it gives more correct info to town.
You were doing what you wanted on day one page 1. Day one page one, you put Xi and Bat in your town, and they should be the wolf team of 3 outside of Emmy.
So when there's a wolf team of 4, if it's down to me and you as suspects?
I always dunk you, because I know I am town.
Your bussing has no effect on me. Hypocrisy, unfairness, appeal to emotion, none of it ever reaches me.
I am a black void where wolfy arguments go to die.
- - - Updated - - -
Haters gonna hate.
Let me know how this approach works out for you when you flip wolf or Rogan does or both.
We will chat postgame and discuss if it was a good move.
- - - Updated - - -
Mr. Popo
AvatarVecna
gac3
Libro
Snowblaze
Supagoof
BatCatHat
Rogan
That's my legacy reads when I die.
And who I am voting tomorrow when I am alive.
Everyone else who is town, feel free to weigh in.
I am sure Snowblaze will object strongly to not dying instead.
I am sure Goof will object strongly to not being wolf read.
I am sure Libro will care one way or the other.
I am sure Vecna is a goat and will back me on this.
And I am sure gac3 is pretty much never a wolf, so it don't matter.
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2021-09-18, 01:13 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Oh, I don't doubt your approach works better. Whichever side wins, whichever one you belong to, it's pretty clear your method worked better to drive the discussion and push your narrative. I just found it funny. I've yet to see if you quite live up to your own hype, but you certainly liven up the games, I'll give you that.
On a more serious note, I don't love the fact that (assuming you get the people with you) the next two lynches looks like it'll be me and the guy whose been, if not my strongest town read, than probably at least my most consistent one. I think you might being over analyzing him snapping a little over feeling he didn't get the credit he deserved.
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2021-09-18, 02:51 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2014
- Location
- Germany
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
You are literally missing the point by miles.
I don't say you are a wolf. You might be, but I don't think this is likely. And if you are? My opinion about your skill might improve. My opinion about your character will drop even harder.
I don't want to treat me like you. I want you to accept the fact that we have completely different ways to play. And this is a position I have taken day 1, at the same time I started to read you as town.
But you don't manage to see this. You might say so from time to time, but you don't.
Let's take my list of people I am not willing to vote for? For most of the people in there, I had no evidence. But that's not the point of this list. The point is, those are the people I would like to play with. Spoiler alert. You will never ever be on this list. Your behavior is toxic. This does not make me read you as scum. It means I don't like you and I don't want to play with you, completely disregarding alignment.
I don't think this will offend you, but if it does? Sorry.Spoiler: I'm a seer
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2021-09-18, 04:11 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I posted a thing in my chat with gac, but I'm gonna mention it publicly because I've realized what it says about gamestate:
Spoiler: scum is screwed?On the one hand, I basically trust you at this point. I don't have a specific reason to trust you, but I have a specific reason to not distrust you - BCH is guilty and that will be that.
On the other hand, because "that will be that", there's not really much to discuss. Even if people aren't feeling very solid on BCH as the final scum, Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, and I are clear, at least to my mind. Xihirli didn't get caught today if it wasn't for Snow, and I have no idea why Snow would push for a xihirli lynch if Snow was scum too.
N3: [Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, or AV] dies, making it 6-1
D4: [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan] dies, making it either 5-1 or 6-0 (town victory)
N4: [Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, or AV] dies, making it 4-1
D5: [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan] dies, making it either 3-1 or 4-0 (town victory)
N5: [Popo, Snowblaze, Libro, or AV] dies, making it 2-1
D6: [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan] dies, making it either 1-1 (scum victory) or 2-0 (town victory)
At this point, we'd need three mislynches to lose. That only happens if the final wolf is the last person we'd suspect in the scummy list [gac3, Supagoof, BCH, or Rogan], and even then, that's only if we never clear another player for the rest of the game. I'm looking forward to re-doing ISOs to figure out who was a little too Xihirli-friendly.
So anyway, I'm about 95% sure that our final wolf is within these three guards, and that means the game is essentially over as long as they don't convince us to lynch a non-guard first. So...why is the game still going? Sure, narrator wouldn't shut us down at this point, but scum has been surrendering a lot lately when they see the writing on the wall. So why is game still going? Scumteam is down two players, and the final one literally can't win if they're in the guards. If this is a 4-scum game, and both remaining scum are guard claimants, then they're still caught and get killed before the game can end in their own victory. That means that no matter how absurd it sounds, there are two possibilities:
1) This is a 3-scum game, and the final scum is not one of the guards.
2) This is a 4-scum game, and at least one of the final scum is not one of the guards (possibly both, but that's extremely unlikely).
If 1 is true...well, I've already shown we're three mislynches away from scum victory in a 3-person game. That's guard, guard, guard, lose. If 2 is true, and we've got guard/somebody else as final scum, here's how those day numbers change:
N3: Town dies, making it 5-2
D4: Town dies, making it 4-2
N4: Town dies, making it 3-2
D5: Town dies, making it 2-2
N5: Town dies, making it 1-2, scumteam wins
So presuming no banes and only mislynches...we're two mislynches away from scum victory. Move forward assuming a 4-scum game, because that's the worst-case scenario for us.
So what I'm going to do is look at the three guard claimants, instead of just one of them. I'm also starting at D3: the Xihirli wagon basically came out of nowhere, so unlike the Emmy wagon, scum didn't have time to plan a reaction. And unlike Emmy, there's pairing/unpairing that can be done. So this is Batcathat/Rogan/Supagoof/Xihirli. I'm fairly certain only one of them is guilty, and with what Popo is indicating about Rogan, it might turn out I'm wrong about BCH. We'll see what I think about who should get checked first, though.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-18, 07:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Weird question, does anyone have an explanation for why the wolves killed Book? My best theory is "let's try to hit the princess since we don't know who she is"
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2021-09-18, 08:06 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I've got a couple that I think I mentioned in my priest breakdown.
1) Scum knew a lot but not everything. N2, the D3 claims hadn't happened yet, and there were some people yet to claim. They were shooting at the people they weren't sure about to find the Princess, Handmaid, Priest, or Prince.
2) They saw BW's signature too, and killed the baner on purpose.
3) They saw me say "BCH and BW are unpaired", they saw BCH was claiming to scry Libro, figured that meant I thought BW was Handmaid (which is why I didn't specify the suspicion overnight), and they shot BW.
- - - Updated - - -
One of Popo, AV, Snowblaze, Libro, and gac3 is a second remaining wolf along with one of the guards.
Libro literally can't be it.
I know I can't be and the rest of you probably agree.
I'm about 95% sure Popo is good.
So snow or gac3. If I'm not around tomorrow to do it, multi-ISO them and Xihirli, see what comes up.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-18, 10:32 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spirits soar high with Queen's forces in check
Two have already been found out, and yet;
each morn someone's poisoned, you think, "oh heck!"
Poison reminds you how close is the threat.
You gather slowly, to see who is left.
You glance 'round to see wolf among the sheep
You group is now smaller, saddened, bereft.
You go to find, who did not wake from sleep
Target this Night was one of high tempo
Expecting demise from beginning since,
You find the body of Mr. Popo,
Leaving the palace with him is the Prince.
Discussion and voting, just like before,
Time to get back to work, begin Day 4
Mr. Popo and Prince Escalus, Town, were poisoned.
Day 4 Ends Monday, Sept. 20 at 11:30 PM EST /
Tuesday, Sept. 21 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
Tuesday, Sept. 21 at 5:30 AM CEST
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2021-09-19, 01:06 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Okay.
...hmm. That’s two nightkills of people who’ve suspected Rogan now. Is Rogan a wolf or are wolves trying to frame him?
AV, I don’t necessarily agree about “there has to be a wolf outside the guard claimants”. From my PoV that means gac3 is a wolf, and I... actually, why do I townread gac3 other than “sheeping Mr Popo”?
Scratch that. Mechanical reason for gac3 to be town. You know when I was talking about Emmy self-targeting in my Xihirli case? And how she’d only do that if there was a decent role in the unused pile? Well, if wolves already had a Baron I can’t see them wanting another one.
So we’re back to the guard claimants. Batcathat for now, pending working through a Xihirli interaction analysis and the mess that is my feelings on Rogan.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-19, 01:17 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I decided to try and check out the claim of one of my fellow guards and it turns out that Supagoof is NOT a guard. Not damning in itself, of course, as someone might've messed with his role, but not a good look.
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2021-09-19, 01:21 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Oh, right. I kinged Supagoof. That one’s my fault. (I am now a guard and can confirm his claim.)
- - - Updated - - -
Which I guess confirms that you are a guard and targeted Supagoof last night. Not that I think that says a massive amount about your alignment. Thoughts on the Rogan/Popo stuff last night?I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-19, 01:35 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
If it's more than a coincidence, I think it's more likely an attempt to frame Rogan. Aside from "kill whoever suspects me" seeming like a rather short-sighted stratergy in general, doing it again after it was pointed out after blade's death feels odd. I suppose it could be some sort of "no one would be stupid enough to do that" attempt but I still feel pretty good about Rogan.
Good to know about Goof, but I'm keeping my vote on him for now, unless a better option presents itself. I suppose it further decreases the already very slim chance of you and Goof being wolf buddies.
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2021-09-19, 01:56 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Focusing D3, since that's when the Xi lynch erupted unexpectedly, and it'll give us a good shot of what people are acting like before and after that wagon started.
Spoiler: Rogan D3/N3 ISOSo, the first thing to keep in mind: Rogan didn't vote BCH. This post reads like it's agreeing with the premise, and points out that BW definitely didn't self-bane N2, but doesn't actually back up that professed belief in the flip with a vote.
"I know what will prove Libro is trustworthy! Popo, tell everybody publicly who you plan to vote-switch so that wolves know who to expect will be what role tonight"
Libro is proven trustworthy by the web of claims. There are no remaining inconsistencies, which either means that more than a couple people are lying for seemingly no reason, or the web as we understand it is true. That means we know what roles were in the unused pile, and countess wasn't one of them. Town didn't know that when this post was made, but scum did.
Regardless of alignment, this plan is dead in the water with Popo off the table. There's no way he went through with it when his top wolf lean was suggesting it.
Rogan is backing away from BCH here, going against his previously stated thoughts about lynching to gain info rather than just killing quiet people trying to fly under the radar. Could be a genuine change of heart, could be that last three scum was somehow rogan/bch/xi and rogan realizes his stated beliefs would require bussing both scumbuddies? But I'm about 90% sure there's only one scum in the guards. They would've thrown by now.
NAI, basic mech talk.
"The fact that there's six people claiming guard is disturbing, but even more concerning is that there's two priest claims"
uhhhh one of those isn't possible in the game setup so. And when I made my claim, I even explained that I'm not counterclaiming and that Popo isn't lying, so why was Rogan saying my thing was more concerning than Xi's thing? Could be that he missed my "this is not a counterclaim" clarification, could be trying to call Xi out on the lie while also downplaying its importance?
Slight counterargument: if Rogan/Xi are w/w, why did Rogan claim guard? He could've claimed Baron and there'd be no contradictions. He'd have to explain why he linked Xi and Snow, though...
blades ISO isn't that long, since blade died N1 and also didn't post much D1 anyway. They were gonna play the game more casually.
Rogan defending Bat again. Once again - at this point in time, the closest thing to an alternate lynch target is Xihirli, who Rogan called out on lying, and yet didn't vote for some reason.
On the one hand "I voted Xi, now let me tell you why voting Xi might be a mistake"
On the other hand, I did the same thing about saying "liars aren't necessarily scum", but at least I was doing that because I was convinced about BCH and wanted to catch a definite wolf instead of a possible one. I'm a lot less certain now, although I'd still like to check that claim.
Looked better at the time than it does now. This post looks awful now that Xi flipped scum.
"There are general occasions where lying might have a towny explanation, so this might be one of those"
[doesn't dig into the possibilities]
Voting Xi and defending Xi. On the one hand, that's better than me since I was defending Xi and voting elsewhere. On the other hand, at least I'm consistent - I didn't vote Xi cuz I suspected BCH more, whereas Rogan is trying to play it both ways.
Most of this post is IIoA, just listing claims and actions. I think this is the second one of those that Rogan made, too. There's some questions at the end, and the Supagoof question feels like a good one to ask. We also have Rogan saying they won't be active much D4, and this is well before Rogan got Popo suspicious, so maybe focus on the posts so far rather than taking silence as a confession.
*squints*
*glances up*
Xihirli: [admits lie]
Rogan: [posts without acknowledging confession]
AV: "uh, confession?"
Rogan: "crossposted, get off my back"
Rogan (2 hours later): "Libro, if you want BCH dead, don't vote so we can test whether or not Xi was telling the truth"
...this is really freaking strange. On the one hand...what, did Rogan just forget that we had a confession already? Was he trying to check if Xihirli's confession was the real lie? On the other hand...knowing what we know now about the integrity of our claims list, we know that if Libro had listened to Rogan, Xi would be dead anyway. If Rogan is w/w with Xi, he must've been going all-in on bussing.
NAI.
Supagoof's answer to Rogan's earlier question is weird, and Rogan's perplexed response feels genuine.
This feels like grasping at straws. In my personal opinion (which isn't super-helpful now that Xi has flipped), if you accidentally claim the wrong, you might not realize it fully immediately, but there'll be a niggling feeling in your brain that says "that doesn't sound quite right, you should check". Then you check your QT, realize you claimed the wrong role, and rush to fix the mistake.
I'd be tempted to say "Rogan is trying to put the blame for gac getting outed on AV when it was really Popo" but I can't quite give them crap for it cuz it was based on me saying that was the case, because I thought Popo did it, and then couldn't find it, except it turns out it was Popo. Not that it matters cuz gac was gonna out himself anyway, but...anyway, this is NAI.
Rogan is voting Xi. Rogan is also arguing that Xi is telling the truth about brainfarting. Rogan is also arguing that Mr Popo is just as guilty of brainfarting (or "brainfarting") about role names as Xi is. Let me help read between those lines:
"I think Xi is guilty, but also I think she's not guilty. But if she flips and is guilty, then maybe we need to take another look at Popo"
NAI, mech clarification.
Mech discussion, but of the type that can maybe help town.
NAI.
Understandable.
Ehhhhh on the one hand Rogan's not wrong, on the other hand...glass houses, y'know? While Rogan has had little callout moments of Xi through the game, as soon as Snowblaze made her case and cast her vote, Rogan was backpedaling and playing devil's advocate (even while voting Xi for most of that time). That kinda "talking out both sides of his mouth" is exactly what he's giving Popo crap for here.
Now, I didn't catch Emmy and only joined the wagon when it was inevitable. But I don't want to take credits for this lynch. It was handled to me on a silver plate.
But Xi? I was unwilling to vote her d1. She is entertaining to have in the game and d1 lynch is wrong more often than right. D2, she lost this protection. But she was read as town by multiple players and so I didn't look too closely. When I was prompted to look there, I noticed there was no good concrete content to read her as town. I even pointed this out for everyone to see. I was mostly ignored. (This seems to happen a lot, I'm afraid). I am not confident enough to lead the charge unless I have very good reasons to be confident. So I don't try hard to find a wolf behind Xi, while most players read her as town.
But when there was a good reason, I immediately said "Xi is lying". Only to be ignored and robbed of my achievement. That's not fair!
I am not good at reading people. I am good at mechanics, the part of the game you have the least interest on.
I fought against Xi in day 2 of PJ. I saw the mech explanation for Wolf Xi. I wasn't the first to notice, but I think I was the most vocal player to push there. I didn't get support. So I finally, before going to bed, give some alternative explanation with benefits of doubt and change my vote to the other target of the day. Next time I see the game, the wagons moved and Xi flipped wolf, after a literal coin flip. To add to this insult? The other possible target was snow, another wolf and outed by fake claiming a role someone else had. Not enough insult? The wolves noticed what I was doing, which allowed them to use me to kill for them n2.
Day 3, I come out at the start of day to say we should kill the vig, without claiming. I knew town would need time to hunt for real wolves instead of going for the easy and wrong target that was me. In the middle of the day, I claim vig. I know the wolves know. Remaining hidden is not going to help town. I don't want to allow the wolves to use me more than strictly necessary. The only reason I lived to see the end of PJ (where I killed myself to hand a win out to a helpful neutral) was AV, back from the dead, mech cleared townie and literally the best player to coordinate the town network.
Or how about Crazy Idea? I was the one who noticed we could get proof of the elimination of the cult by flipping the outed Cultist instead of the outed Serial killer.
I was the one to point out blocking the guy who claimed Jack and was scried Mafia would be necessary to ensure he dies and could give us a good guess on the question "how big is this team".
At the same time, as snow pointed out, I reacted poor to her calling me out as possible scum. I am not good at actively deceiving people.
Or just take a look at the recruitment threads. I am there, asking about the rules and the mech all the time. Because, mech is logical. People are not. And since I ask those questions before alignment is rolled, you can't honestly accuse me of trying to further some kind of scheme.
If I ever get out and say "This guy is a wolf, I am certain!" without presenting my mech evidence? I am a wolf. Even if I am right about this, I will have additional info and be more likely to be a badguy. And before you try to use this and d1: I was comfortable sitting on Jeen. Not certain.
And to make one thing clear: this is not meant to accuse anybody. It's meant to explain why I am annoyed about some things, like the way you want to share credits for the Xi lynch with Snow. The Xi lynch rightfully belongs to me. I called her out first. I wouldn't have allowed for it to be ignored forever.
I don't think you do this with ill intend. It's more likely to be a difference in approach and character. But you do it. And I am annoyed.
Honest criticism is something I can accept. Honest and deserved compliments as well. But robbing my accomplishments? That's where I draw the line.[/QUOTE]
FWIW, this isn't the first time this game that Popo and Rogan have bumped heads over playstyle differences, and it's honestly kinda accurate. This is just how Rogan plays.
...blame? Share blame? For the Xi lynch? What blame is there to be shared?
More of the same.
Overall, I'm kinda iffy on Rogan. There's a lot of concerning signs in this ISO, but this is also ignoring anything from before D3 (and basically everybody was townreading Rogan then). I can see where Mr Popo is coming from - generally at this point in the game, really good players will be far far more likely to get annoyed and angry when they've lost scumbuddies to 2 of the 3 lynches. On the other hand...that's kinda Popo's general problem, he's treating this community like the crowd of hardened veterans it used to be. But there's more new players than you'd think, and very few members of the old guard. Rogan's posts here could read like scum losing their cool in the face of inevitable defeat, if that's the situation where you're most used to seeing frustration, but I used to be where Rogan's sitting, and I remember being angry a lot. Popo referenced it even. I'd try pure mech clears, as if ignoring the social aspect of a social game and just spreadsheeting hard enough could somehow solve the game. Some games, I never posted cuz I didn't have anything to say because I wasn't sure how much I could trust the responses, and then I'd get autolynched for inactivity. I had a longstanding tradition of always voting myself once a game, and the number of times that turned out to be a good idea was like...twice, tops.
Rogan is one of the guard claimants, so he's on my list for one of the scum slots. But he's not lockscum to my mind. Light scumread for now, mostly because of the "guard claimants" principle. if one of the others flips, his slot looks much better.
- - - Updated - - -
Here's my case:
This game started with 3 or 4 wolves. 5 would be ridiculous, so it's right out (and it's only plausible if BCH is scum). 6 is impossible cuz game would've ended already. So, 3 or 4. If this game started with 3 scum, there's one left and they're almost certainly in the guards. So here's the timeline if town needs three guesses to catch the guard:
D4: 6/1 --> 5/1
N4: 5/1 --> 4/1
D5: 4/1 --> 3/1
N5: 3/1 --> 2/1
D6: 2/1 --> 2/0 town victory
To clarify, let's suppose the real wolf is Rogan. We hit BCH on D4, and they're town. We hit Supagoof on D5, and they're town too. We hit Rogan on D6, they're wolf, and the game is over. Town can't miss the final scum unless all the guards are innocent. And yet...there's no surrender. Wolves haven't given up even though victory is inevitable. That either means scum is more interested in playing things to see how far they get than they are interested in only spending effort if it can achieve full victory...or it means that our victory isn't actually inevitable. If this is a 3-scum game, the final scum is one of AV/Snowblaze/Libro/gac3. And I know for damn sure it isn't me or Libro.
If this is a 4-scum game, the timeline looks more like this:
D4: 5/2 --> 4/2
N4: 4/2 --> 3/2
D5: 3/2 --> 2/2 scum victory
Now we need only two mislynches to lose.
To clarify, let's suppose that Rogan is the only guard that isn't scum. We hit Rogan on D4, and miss. We hit BCH on D5, and hit. We hit Supagoof on D6, and hit. We've now hit all the guards, and eliminated both remaining wolves. So if there's still two scum, and both of them are guards, scumteam is still screwed if town eliminates all guards first. They have every reason to surrender rather than drag the game out for another week, which they'll have to spend constantly convincing town to vote elsewhere. Unless they keep the game going for the sake of not quitting, the only reason not to is because they're not actually screwed. And that's only the case if at least one of the remaining scum isn't a guard.
So our options are: either scum isn't surrendering for some inexplicable reason, or scum isn't surrendering because one of the scumteam is sitting pretty in towncore.
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Batcathatfor now. I'm open to voting Supagoof or Rogan instead on Guard Principle, but I'd really prefer BCH got checked first.
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2am here, and unlike most days I kinda have to be up in the early morning, so I'm gonna get a nap. See you nerds later.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-20 at 06:33 AM.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-19, 05:00 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Spoiler: living people on Xihirli, day one
Which... I think implies that day two "exactly one in BCH/Rogan" was right after all.
AV - I get your point about the surrender, but I'm struggling to see how anyone other than the Guard claimants can be a wolf. I'm town, Libro's town, you're not making any of the moves a wolf in your position would make.
There are maybe wolf!gac3 worlds, but that's pretty unlikely at this stage - that should be my next move, actually, check out gac3's day three.
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Yeah, I like gac3's day three. Not hard bussing, not hard defending, not hedging, just working their way through the implications and getting to the right answer.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-19, 06:29 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2021-09-19, 07:05 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Well, gac3 isn’t a suspect really, just someone I need to be able to clear more confidently than I can at the moment.
Supagoof... he’s definitely still in my POE but I liked some aspects of his day three and the reasons I wolfread him earlier feel like “Reasons Snowblaze Tunnels Town” and/or me wanting him to be a wolf because I was the main alternative at that point.
(Also Rogan has trended down significantly today, to the point where I’m considering voting for him instead of you. But I’d like him to show up and give thoughts before I decide.)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-19, 07:14 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I guess I can sympathize with that and I suppose a lot of the things that feel wolfy about Goof to me also made me suspicious of BW and those suspicions turned out rather unfounded.
I'll try to take a look at all the main suspects with fresh eyes and an open mind, but at the moment I'd still rather vote Goof than Rogan. Of course, if it comes down to Rogan or I, I'll change my vote (I guess a case could be made that a towny Rogan would be a greater loss to town than myself, on account of being more experienced, but I'm not certain about him enough to self lynch on account of that).
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2021-09-19, 09:24 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
As Mr. Popo was brought out, you all swear you can hear his voice.
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2021-09-19, 01:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Things seem quiet today. I wonder if it's the absence of Popo or people just being busy? (I've spent most of the day putting together a home theater system. So many wires, so many settings, makes my head hurt...)
Tomorrow I'll hopefully have more time to go over at least Goof, gac and Rogan again. Maybe AV too, if I have even more time (I don't really suspect AV that much, but avoiding looking closer at someone out of laziness seems sloppy and possibly risky ).
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2021-09-19, 02:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I'm running my Sunday game, and who knows some people might be in church this morning? I think Rogan is, he said something about it?
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
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My Homebrew
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2021-09-19, 05:04 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
On the bright side my paranoia that Mr. Popo might have been a wolf playing us is gone.
I'll vote here in a little. I know it's for sure going to be one of a few people but I am planning to include my updated reads list with the vote so I need to put that together.
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2021-09-19, 07:54 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Popo game you death messages yeah? Anything worth sharing, or are they all out of date?
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I've got a bit more sleep in my future, so I'll be back in a few hours to really dig into some people. I'm unhappy with how the game's basically died without me and Popo pushing stuff.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew
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2021-09-19, 10:19 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-09-19, 10:39 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Cazero's Graduates Of Hope's Peak - Danganronpa Mafia
Avatar by AsteriskAmp
My Homebrew