Love Letter Mafia

[gac3]

Here ye, here ye. Thine honorable Baron has provided me, Gac3, with writs on behalf of the now besmerched Lord Popo. I shall now read the messages from two nights yonder!

Spoiler: Message One

Show

"All right maggots, listen up.

Popo's about to teach you the stratigraphic order. It goes:

1. Town (above the surface)
2. The dirt (the surface)
3. The worms inside of the dirt (just below the surface)
4. Popo's stool (deeper still)
5. Emmy (buried five foot deep)
6. Then Popo (six feet deep)

"

My heavens. Quite a message to be sure.

Spoiler: Message Two

Show

I am going to roleblock Snowblaze.

If a kill on me still happens, please go ahead and execute Sugapoof tomorrow.

Alas. It would seem that they hath gone against thine own wishes, fore it was Xihirli who was cast out on the previous Eve.

Spoiler: Message Three

Show

My POE is goof, then Blaze, then Book Wombat.

Literally hit outside of those names for zero reasons, unless someone in that group is the Princess and is mech cleared by game host.

My heavens. These are quite aggressive accusations. And then to have one of them taken falsely from our employee before such threats could curse their ears.

Spoiler: Message Four

Show

Snow will be blocked by my power unless I am blocked again somehow.

So goof has to the the one who does the kill if he is her partner, or Wombat has to.

Ask everyone with powers if they have targeted either of those players to out whatever info they have on them.

That is more proper. Yet it would seem unlikely that Master Book would undo himself so.

Spoiler: Message Five

Show

"I SAID YOUR LOVE
KEEPS LIFTING POPO'S SPIRIT
HIGHER AND HIGHER!!!!

I said this town (your love keeps lifting me)
Keep on (love keeps lifting me)
Lifting Popo (lifting me)
Higher and higher (higher)

I'm so glad, Popo finally found Emma
Yes that one, necromantic girl
And I whip, my Supa arms around you, Goofy
I can stand up, and face the world
Let me tell ya, Snowblaze (Princess keeps lifting me)
Keep on lifting (Town keeps lifting me)
Higher (lifting me)
Higher and higher (higher)
I said this TOWN (town keeps lifting me)
Keep on (love keeps lifting me)
Lifting Popo (lifting me)
Higher and higher (higher)
Now Book it to me
Hold me, you're my Wombat
Keep my town going
Higher and higher
I said keep on lifting
Popo up hiiiiiiigher...."

***Tapping foot to the song***

Oh right. Moving along. The following are a series of notes provided to Lord Gac, Third of his line, with less direct instructions. These were once again, intended to be shared yesterday, however Master Popo overestimated his odds of arrest.

Spoiler: Miscellaneous notes

Show

Spoiler

Show

Gac3, read my post 287

That was a coded message I delivered while alive.

"Gac will push back
Pizza is a tasty snack
You don't snack Gac
Or Gac will snack back
That's the secret Gac snack-attack pushback!

Popo was here, people. Gac established comms with Popo, the purposes of which makes no sense to wolves unless they think they can manipulate me.

Which, gac made absolutely zero attempts to do the entire time we spoke. I did all the talking, as you might imagine."

Spoiler

Show

Gac knows my suspects and who I roleblocked last night, if I died.

That's mainly what we discussed. Gac is clean, don't hit here unless like all my suspects are town. Literally all of them.

Spoiler

Show

Spoiler

Show

Spoiler: End of Day Announcement

Show

"Popo is asking everyone to MASS CLAIM when a second Queen disloyal maggot dies.

Let's finish the game off by narrowing down the remaining maggot.

If I was going to do it all myself, why would I need you?"

I have but one more missive from the quill of Popo, which came in just this morn and goes as such.

Spoiler: Final Leagacy

Show

Popo was here.
Avecna town lock forever never touch
Gac3 town lock forever never touch
Libro town lock forever never touch
Supagoof can only be considered in final 3 versus the ABOVE names only.
Snowblaze for the deepest possible wolf, when one of the below is wrong, basically Bat would be wrong, and then Snow is a wolf.
But there's a big gap here between Snow and....














































These two.

BatCatHat must always be eliminated before final 3/4
Rogaine with minoxidil must always be eliminated before final 3/4

As in, Snow only gets considered when it's never Bat and Rogan.

[Snowblaze]

For my point on Snowblaze above, the Mafia is not it's own role. I find is highly sus that your plan to "king Snowblaze" and block the wolf kill, "if not - then it's gotta be Supagoof", to be a a wrong plan in the solve. If the assumption is 3+ mafia, then 2+ left means blocking 1 won't stop a kill since the other can perform it. And the more obvious thing is - it's clearly written in the first post that specific action will not work. See quote above.

Supagoof...



I... cannot see where anyone said that was their plan? What exactly are you replying to here?

- - - Updated - - -

Rereading the context a bit, it sounds like Supagoof is claiming that someone suggested I was clear because I was kinged and so couldn't have performed the kill. No-one said that unless I'm completely missing something.

Here ye, here ye. Thine honorable Baron has provided me, Gac3, with writs on behalf of the now besmerched Lord Popo. I shall now read the messages from two nights yonder!

Spoiler: Message Two

Show

I am going to roleblock Snowblaze.

If a kill on me still happens, please go ahead and execute Sugapoof tomorrow.

Spoiler: Message Four

Show

Snow will be blocked by my power unless I am blocked again somehow.

So goof has to the the one who does the kill if he is her partner, or Wombat has to.

Ask everyone with powers if they have targeted either of those players to out whatever info they have on them.

I'm going mad, right? This isn't what I actually think it is, is it?

We have Supagoof referring to something that hadn't been posted in the thread (iirc; will check) and then we have that exact thing posted by Mr Popo in a thread only him and gac3 could access.

Is this actually real?

[AvatarVecna]

I'm going mad, right? This isn't what I actually think it is, is it?

We have Supagoof referring to something that hadn't been posted in the thread (iirc; will check) and then we have that exact thing posted by Mr Popo in a thread only him and gac3 could access.

Is this actually real?

It's possible it's been mentioned in-thread at some point as a possibility? I'm sure Popo speculated about what use the king could have.

On the other hand, if it turns out you're right...well, maybe you'd like to give my theory on one trusted scum and one guard scum some further consideration?

- - - Updated - - -

FWIW I haven't actually ISO'd Popo's D2. I kinda don't wanna cuz aaaaaaaaaaa. Plenty of other people I should dig into as well. >.<

[Snowblaze]

47) And that explains why blocking Snowblaze while publicly accusing Supagoof did not result in me being night killed but someone else was in fact night killed.

This is the closest I can find to a statement of the plan Supagoof references in thread. Considering it was buried pretty deep in a wall...

Someone who isn't me, please sanity-check the above.

- - - Updated - - -

I only read through night two and day three up until Supagoof posted. But I imagine it wouldn't be earlier than that.

[Batcathat]

I'll try to take a look, but I probably won't have the time until later today.

If your suspicions turns out to be correct, you might've saved me from getting lynched for the second time in a row, which would be a nice change of pace from our pattern of screwing each other over (despite my best attempts earlier this game).

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: UH OH SPAGHETTIOS

Show

I picked Gac as Baron to give a solid read to the priest with solid information to be verified in game. I hadn't seen anyone state what role Gac was.

I also thought that other actions N2 may interfere with other people I would have targeted. Like, picking someone who would have been handmaidened (Libro, AV, Popo), or picking someone who'd have been switching roles (Pretty sure Popo would get rid of his Kingship asap.) - so why bother with those of higher profile.

Night one, I missed - I hadn't put much thought into who would have been what role. When I returned on day 2, I just a list of suspects in my head from the time on day 1 that I did read at that point, that I wanted to know more about. Gac3 for pointing at me D1, Snow just because she's usually a power player, you because curious and hadn't played with you. So when I said you on my list when I returned on day 2, it was just because of curiosity. I had not at that point seen the wonders that Mr Popo had posted or had other hairs on the back of my head raised yet.

...no. Two mistakes here.

First off, during N2, the web of claims looked like this:

Spoiler: Claims From Town POV

Show

Libro claims Countess.
JeenLeen flips Guard.
bladescape flips Priest.
Mr Popo claims King.
Mr Popo claims Priest is not Unused.
Mr Popo claims Baron is not Unused.
Batcathat claims Guard.
Supagoof claims Guard.
Emmy claims Prince is Unused.
Emmy flips Guard.

Here's what the chart of open possibilities looks like, assuming that you implicitly trust all claims, including the "Prince is unused" claim that came from a scumplayer, which probably shouldn't be trusted. Here are all the possible places a town guard could guess.

	Princess	Prince	Handmaid	Handmaid	Baron	Baron	Priest	Guard	Guard
AvatarVecna
Book Wombat
EmmyNecromancer
gac3
Rogan
rogue_alchemist
Snowblaze
Xihirli
Unused					---	---	----

63 possibilities remain. 8 of them are correct. Baron and Guard are the only ones that have multiple possible correct guesses, and Baron can't be Unused so it's only got 7 possible slots; Baron is the best one to guess. I'm not sure why you'd want to know where the Baron is, but it's information, which is...something? But even if you're assuming that all claims are absolute truth (and one of them is still just an unverifiable claim from a confirmed-wolf), and even if you limit yourself to guessing Baron or Guard, you've got at best a ~28.5% chance of guessing correctly. It's not exactly great odds, but not awful. It's relatively reasonable that a townie might guess this.

...but just for fun, let's look at a different perspective:

Spoiler: Claims From Scum POV

Show

Let's assume starting scum is EmmyNecromancer / Snwoblaze / Supagoof / Xihirli. Snowblaze claimed that a network was made between her and Xi (likely for distancing purposes, ie "come on why would wolves network with each other"), Xi claimed to be a guard who couldn't make a network, Rogan and I each separately called how weird/factually incorrect that was, and Snowblaze panicked and hrd-bussed Xihirli.

From scum perspective, here is the situation at the start of N2:

EmmyNecromancer is Guard.
Snowblaze is Prince.
Supagoof is Guard.
Xihirli is Baron.
Unused is Prince.
Unused is Handmaid.
Scumteam knows Prince is not inactive.
Libro claims Countess.
JeenLeen flips Guard.
bladescape flips Priest.
Mr Popo claims King.
Mr Popo claims Baron is not inactive.
Batcathat claims Guard.

Additionally: this would mean scumteam started with both Princes, one handmaid, and one guard. Unlikely, but it means that one more space in the following chart will be either confirmed as truth or (more likely) denied because they mis-guessed. Let's assume they guessed AV = Baron (since, if I were assigning roles based on reputation, AV = Baron is funny but also dangerous):

	Princess	Handmaid	Baron	Priest	Guard
AvatarVecna			----
Book Wombat
gac3
Rogan
rogue_alchemist			----

Now, scumteam knows they'll BW's role by the end of the night, and probably rogue_alchemist's role as well. There's only two possible people besides BW who could be Baron, so Supagoof guesses gac to make sure scum knows exactly who is having conversations that scumteam can't see. Here's how that chart looks after N2 ends:

	Priest	Guard
AvatarVecna
Rogan

The last two players who haven't claimed or been confirmed via guard check, what a coincidence. (And you get basically similar results if you assume basically anybody other than gac is the fourth scumbuddy; you might end up with three slots instead of two, but still).

When I put together my big chart of D3 claims, and I concluded "scum almost certainly knows who everybody is by now", this right here is exactly what I was talking about. If scum started with four players, they started out knowing 6 of the roles in-play. They prince'd two people in scumchat to gain access to baron, and could very well have been hunting for the other baron, because apparently this forum considers private QTs to be the death of scumteams for some reason.

But anyway, you can kinda see that the odds of Supagoof guessing correctly are much higher if he's on scumteam, just because of the extra information known. The field was much wider N2 from town's perspective even if you trust absolutely every single claim (which you shouldn't, especially the claim from confirmed scum).

...but that's honestly the lesser point against Supagoof in this post:

I picked Gac as Baron to give a solid read to the priest with solid information to be verified in game. I hadn't seen anyone state what role Gac was.

...excuse me? EXCUSE ME???

You were trying to help the priest?

Number 1, how would you being able to confirm gac3 as Baron help the priest???

Number 2, you were trying to help the priest, who everybody thought was scum since they weren't pointing out alternatives to Popo?!

You're claiming that, on N2, when nobody in town had any reason to think priest was town, and scum absolutely knew for a fact that priest was town, you were scrying gac to help the priest?

No. That's what you're claiming your motivation was after I came out and claimed priest. Before I claimed priest, you had no reason to suspect that priest was town-aligned - or if you did, maybe you could've said something to Popo so I wouldn't have felt the need to claim quite as much. It was still ultimately a good idea for me to claim, but the fact remains that this post very much comes across like you're trying to pretend your scry was to help an obvious townie that everybody else thought was scum. No, no it was not. You were not trying to help Priest when you picked your target, because no townie would've been trying to help Priest N2. If any town!Guard had guessed "AV is Priest" on N2, D3 would've started with "AV is the scum priest!"

Supagoof

(also if/when Supagoof flips scum, gac3 isn't necessarily cleared. It's entirely possible the teamup is Goof/gac, and Goof wasn't actually "guessing" that gac was Baron. This teamup has both barons on scumteam, which is powerful QT private conversation power, and it gives an explanation for why Xihirli would link up with Snowblaze.)

- - - Updated - - -

It's dumb that I'm moving off BCH even though they dodged the lynch yesterday, but I feel rather strongly about somebody claiming they were helping somebody they had every reason to think was scum when they made that decision. It stinks of post-claim justification.

- - - Updated - - -

I should finish the Supagoof ISO for the sake of completion, but screw it, it'd take a miracle to change my vote now and he doesn't have enough posts to pull off a miracle.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, sure. Let's kill Supagoof.

And gac3 certainly isn't clear if this flips scum considering what I pointed out above.

Welcome to the "surviving far more lynches than you have any right to" club, Batcathat.

[AvatarVecna]

Okay, sure. Let's kill Supagoof.

And gac3 certainly isn't clear if this flips scum considering what I pointed out above.

Welcome to the "surviving far more lynches than you have any right to" club, Batcathat.

Our club has snacks.

[Batcathat]

Welcome to the "surviving far more lynches than you have any right to" club, Batcathat.

I suppose being suspect in this game is sort of like being chased by a bear, you don't have to be the fastest – just not the slowest.

Hopefully Goof is the last wolf, otherwise I'm guessing I'll be up for my next club term by D5.

[Snowblaze]

I just realised that there’s actually a decent chance I die tonight so I need to leave some kind of legacy.

POE is Rogan/Batcathat/maybe gac3 after killing Supagoof today. Don’t forget if Supagoof flips town tomorrow could be LyLo.

Beyond that I have no clue, I haven’t done anywhere near as much work as I’d like today. I’ll go reread day three in more detail to see if that gives any insights.

[gac3]

I'm down. Bat/Supagoof is the same to me. Rogan and Snow have I have a town lean for now. Even though until yesterday snow was one of biggest wolf reads. I have no intention of voting AV. Is that everyone? Is anyone else alive? I mean there's Gac3 and I'd rather not vote him but we can afford some mislynches as of last time I did some math.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, going from the proposition of mass-claim with focus on my POE (plus Supagoof even though he’s probably now dying with three of the four people who’ve actually shown up voting him... wait, now I’m scared town is going to lose because people just won’t post.)

We have Rogan’s “I called Xihirli out!” post. Which... on rereading isn’t as strong a callout as I thought. Because claiming Guard wasn’t likely to get Xihirli screwed over when the other Guard claimants were the top two consensus suspects at that point.

...gah. This is... hard to work out. Because I understand Rogan’s points on it earlier and it makes sense coming from town, but I also don’t see why it couldn’t be a wolf.

We then have my realisation; Batcathat’s reply to it instantly made me think “I’m just going to sit on the fence and see how screwed my partner is before I decide whether to bus.”

IRL calls, will carry on later if I have time.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm down. Bat/Supagoof is the same to me. Rogan and Snow have I have a town lean for now. Even though until yesterday snow was one of biggest wolf reads. I have no intention of voting AV. Is that everyone? Is anyone else alive? I mean there's Gac3 and I'd rather not vote him but we can afford some mislynches as of last time I did some math.

Libro is also still in the game.

[Batcathat]

We then have my realisation; Batcathat’s reply to it instantly made me think “I’m just going to sit on the fence and see how screwed my partner is before I decide whether to bus.”

You mean your realization about Goof? I had already voted him before then, so if there was a bus I was already on it.

- - - Updated - - -

Or did you mean about Xi? If so, I can sort of see your point, but keep in mind that at the time you were my strongest wolf read and I was leaning town on Xi (even if I did it less after my ISO on her).

[Snowblaze]

You mean your realization about Goof? I had already voted him before then, so if there was a bus I was already on it.

Sorry. That’s a day three thing, and I was referring to my realisation about Xihirli.

[Supagoof]

OMGYAS and you'd still be wrong.

First - Snowblaze - please cross off your earlier point if you are truly pointing at me. I know I would like not to die, but I'd rather have a clean swipe of the executioner's blade if I do go. None of this nearly headless Nick. (Also, if I was Mafia, why would I tell you this.)

BatCatHat to stay true with Popo's intentions.

Now to start peeling back the layers on this stinky onion of logic.

I got kinged last night. So be it, makes sense to move it around. Wanted to state that I was attempting to look at Rogan for Handmaiden. Because the logic of "2 handmaidens, one has to be mafia..." makes a lot of sense. Find them, find the handmaiden.

Popo was right in that he and I don't think alike, but that doesn't mean we didn't have the same objective. My manner of play is that the truth will set you free, which means shake out the tree and see what truths pop up. A truth that I felt was being ignored with it was the "Snowblaze/Supagoof" logic, was that the king ability could stop the nightkill. Which it can't. I thought Snowblaze being made king, with a nightkill coming through, proved nothing about Snow's innocence. And I was still suspect about someone in Popo's trusted network being a mole/mafia. I was going to investigate more. I dropped that since the BCH logic came out, followed by the Xi logic. If it just happened that I guessed the same idea that Popo had - I'll attribute it to great minds think alike and be super happy with that if I get my head cut off.

Another truth that I felt was being ignored was the "Mafia is an alignment". Can't scry for them, it's why I asked Cao in QT. Ask yourself, why would I do this?

Third thing - I wanted to give a read to the priest. 100%. Was feeling at that point in the game, especially with me missing night 1 as an action period, that I needed to offer actions up to give a truth to me, even if it meant Mafia saw it too. Best case scenario is that Mafia Baron approaches me and I have someone to out that night. Good scenario is to show action (not accusations, action) of what I'm doing in the game. I did. Now I have something I can stand on, instead of the giant abyss of the no N1 action. Maybe, my analysis will get somewhere. Recall that I was also assuming that Popo's network was larger and in more conversation with each other.

So today, quiet...yes - because I did state I wouldn't be back until today (which matches my "away" on weekends playstyle.). Also no mo Popo.

But I see some things coming out of the woodwork. BCH on the "If I die, kill him" death march has managed to convince you of flaws in other people. I would expect anyone grasping for life to do so - to be fair, I am also doing so.

Snowblaze being lead astray by a dying wolf (BCH) or by an honest town is a pairing. If I don't survive today's lynch, then I feel that should be looked at again. Also with the casting shade on Gac who has, I feel, been going as town this whole time, so now she wants to pair him with me. Don't lose sight of that either.

Supagoof

(also if/when Supagoof flips scum, gac3 isn't necessarily cleared. It's entirely possible the teamup is Goof/gac, and Goof wasn't actually "guessing" that gac was Baron. This teamup has both barons on scumteam, which is powerful QT private conversation power, and it gives an explanation for why Xihirli would link up with Snowblaze.)

Please remember the inverse of this.

It's dumb that I'm moving off BCH even though they dodged the lynch yesterday, but I feel rather strongly about somebody claiming they were helping somebody they had every reason to think was scum when they made that decision. It stinks of post-claim justification.

I agree, it is dumb. For both the snake oil being chanted by BCH as well as the self preservation interest.

I should finish the Supagoof ISO for the sake of completion, but screw it, it'd take a miracle to change my vote now and he doesn't have enough posts to pull off a miracle.

Please do. I believe you had one earlier that you can probably build off of.

All that being said - I enjoy playing as suspected for multiple reasons.

1. It keeps me alive from Mafia night kills (cause why kill the player who may be lynched or we can cast shade upon to save ourselves.)
2. It makes the game more fun.
3. (And I probably shouldn't say this) - If in games where I end up Mafia/Wolf/Scum - it gives credibility to my play when I am. Not the case this time, but saying it outloud doesn't mean it's not true either. (Why do I do this to myself).

[AvatarVecna]

...had a realisation. Xihirli is a wolf.

Emmy wouldn't have self-targeted in worlds where the discard pile contains two Guards, because she gains nothing from that.

Since we know Emmy did self-target from AV's tracking, we can therefore conclude that the discard pile didn't contain two Guards.

We know Emmy got a Guard night one, because she flipped Guard. Which means the other person claiming to have become a Guard night one, Xihirli, must be lying.

We can also plausibly infer that the second Baron, the one who connected me with Xihirli, is scum. Because why would a town Baron connect the one who's been flying under the radar and the one who's likely to die tomorrow because she's widely suspected?

And we know that the Baron is likely in the group of guard claimants. So what makes most sense is that Xihirli is a lying wolf and also the Baron.

There's also no evidence that there was a second QT night one (please correct me if someone else was QTed night one) which implies that the Baron was an unused role night one.

...either that or I've made a large mistake somewhere.

I can't find any flaws in the reasoning, except maybe AV could be lying (even if it seems like a weird lie, even from a wolf), but right now I don't have a ton of confidence in either my own grasp of the mechanics or you. Will have to think about it and see if anyone else spots any holes or red flags I might be missing right now.

I believe this is the interaction Snownis talking about. Additionally, I found it kinda strange, because when I saw Snow's argument, I saw a number of potential holes in it, most of which mattered less than "but why even lie about it".

[Snowblaze]

Meh... fair point, I guess. Continuing.


- Rogan is the next to vote for Xihirli, citing the same mechanical reasons.

- but he then follows up with “actually, lying about role doesn’t equal scum” and. Actually this looks bad. “I have already pointed out these things”. Wanting towncred for a flipped wolf is one thing. Wanting credit for someone who still hasn’t flipped is quite another. And looks like TMI.

- “I checked to see if Xihirli was the Princess” - Batcathat. It’s already been discussed why this isn’t a particularly pro-town action so I won’t dig into it now.

- I do like the snap-back from BCH on “but the mechanics are complicated!” though I can also see worlds where Xihirli just said “I’m screwed, bus me” in wolfchat.

- Rogan elaborating on the Xihirli case, missing the fact she’s already claimed to be the Baron. This could actually be slightly towny as presumably there would have been discussion of the claim in wolf - oh. Oh, wolves can’t talk during day, can they? Right, scratch that.

Anyway, leaving it there, probably for good now. Just seen your wall, Supagoof, will digest it properly when I have more time.

[gac3]

Libro is also still in the game.

Ah right. I'm less likely to vote them than you. So the rest of my stuff holds true.

[AvatarVecna]

I got kinged last night. So be it, makes sense to move it around. Wanted to state that I was attempting to look at Rogan for Handmaiden. Because the logic of "2 handmaidens, one has to be mafia..." makes a lot of sense. Find them, find the handmaiden.

You missed a couple things:

1) Xihirli claims to have started as Handmaid, which would fulfill our "one handmaid starting in scum" quota.

2) The reason Xihirli didn't flip maid is because she got Prince'd N1. Depending on exactly what happened last night, Handmaid is either stuck in the unused pile forever, or one of us got flipped to handmaid and doesn't wanna say so. (This is based on the plan Rogan's mentioned a couple times in-thread.)

Popo brought up that logic in reaction to Xihirli specifically because he thought it always made sense, and Xihirli claiming "I started as Handmaid" was a red flag for Popo.

Third thing - I wanted to give a read to the priest. 100%. Was feeling at that point in the game, especially with me missing night 1 as an action period, that I needed to offer actions up to give a truth to me, even if it meant Mafia saw it too. Best case scenario is that Mafia Baron approaches me and I have someone to out that night. Good scenario is to show action (not accusations, action) of what I'm doing in the game. I did. Now I have something I can stand on, instead of the giant abyss of the no N1 action. Maybe, my analysis will get somewhere. Recall that I was also assuming that Popo's network was larger and in more conversation with each other.

My issue is with the timeline of events.

Early D2: Popo lets everybody know the remaining priest is untrustworthy
N2: Supagoof rolescries gac to help the priest
D3: AV claims town!priest
Later in D3: Supagoof publicly claims his intentions were to help the priest

Nothing in your response to my case on you actually responds in a way that would even theoretically warrant moving a vote, so I'll ask the relevant questions directly:

What reason did you personally have during N2 to think the remaining priest was town, such that you wanted to help the priest out specifically?

So today, quiet...yes - because I did state I wouldn't be back until today (which matches my "away" on weekends playstyle.). Also no mo Popo.

Wasn't really accusing when I commented on that, just statement of fact. I was gaming elsewhere, you were gone camping, Rogan was at church, Popo was dead, Libro was Libro.

But I see some things coming out of the woodwork. BCH on the "If I die, kill him" death march has managed to convince you of flaws in other people. I would expect anyone grasping for life to do so - to be fair, I am also doing so.

BCH's smearing of your character has such a minimal impact on my opinion that it could be considered entirely irrelevant. I was doing an ISO on your D3 reaction to the Xihirli stuff on general principle (just like I've done with Rogan, and just like I'll do with BCH sometime in the next 11 hours), and I saw one post that just instantly set my scumdar off. That's not BCH's fault.

Please remember the inverse of this.

Are you implying that if you flip town, I should townread gac3? Can you clarify why you think this should be the case? Oh and bonus points, try to not just quote Popo and say "Popo says". Popo said a lot of things, including "BCH/Supagoof, everybody else has spewed themselves clear".

[gac3]

Also... I've seen a lot of comments about "Supagoof flipping red doesn't clear Gac3" which kind of confused me. Is there a reason it would? Are we unpaired by something for some reason? If I were not me, I would probably be more suspicious of me if Supagoof flips red (assuming that doesn't end the game, confirming a fourth wolf).

[AvatarVecna]

Also... I've seen a lot of comments about "Supagoof flipping red doesn't clear Gac3" which kind of confused me. Is there a reason it would? Are we unpaired by something for some reason? If I were not me, I would probably be more suspicious of me if Supagoof flips red (assuming that doesn't end the game, confirming a fourth wolf).

TL;DR

The post where I make my case against Supagoof hinges on the fact that he role-scried you specifically as Baron, and did so successfully. Some people might see that and say "why would he waste a role-scry on a teammate, obviously Supagoof and gac3 are unpaired". I'm saying "they're not unpaired" because:

1) if they're teammates, Supagoof doesn't need to waste a scry to learn that info, he can just ask gac his role in scumchat and they'd be fine, with Supagoof still able to target the scry elsewhere.

2) Even if Supagoof expected to waste a scry, it barely matters: in a 4-wolf game, N2 ends with book wombat and rogue_alchemist biting the dust. Whether there are three roles left to find or only two, scum is still in a very good spot, so even if the scry was wasn't on purpose, it wouldn't make that much difference in how the game played out.

It's similar to the reason I'm not quite clearing Snowblaze on the Xi stuff anymore: I can see plausible worlds where scum networked with each other as a "why would wolves ever waste a network power like that", but then Xi publicly claimed guard instead of baron while Snowblaze claimed the network, and those claims bumped heads and got called out, forcing Snow to bus. Maybe that's what happened. I don't think that's what happened, but it's definitely plausible, so I don't really feel comfortable clearing Snow on that.

[gac3]

I'm going mad, right? This isn't what I actually think it is, is it?

We have Supagoof referring to something that hadn't been posted in the thread (iirc; will check) and then we have that exact thing posted by Mr Popo in a thread only him and gac3 could access.

Is this actually real?

Between whatever this is and the fact that "I scried Gac3 as baron" could easily be "my buddy Gac3 is the Baron and I know this to be true", really seems to show that we might have been in communication. However all baron chats are accounted for and that would only leave wolf chat. Since we know Popo wasn't a wolf and couldn't have shared this info, it reads to me like me and Goof are wolf buddies. The only reason I'm not slinging accusations to the effect is because I'm me and I know my alignment so... Moral of the story is neither flip would clear me, but especially not red.

[Supagoof]

Except I'm not going to flip red.

And the scum will have convinced you all to kill another town even when the clear path is there on who should die today. BCH

You can kill me tomorrow, but I'd rather win today. I want the town to win, but I'd rather be in the room where it happens.

[Batcathat]

Except I'm not going to flip red.

And the scum will have convinced you all to kill another town even when the clear path is there on who should die today. BCH

You can kill me tomorrow, but I'd rather win today. I want the town to win, but I'd rather be in the room where it happens.

Incidentally, that's pretty much exactly how I feel as well.

I really do hope you're the last wolf, otherwise I'm gonna feel a lot worse about our chances of winning.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Supagoof D3 ISO

Show

Oh fun, I couldn't sleep. So I come to check the thread. 20+ posts since the night ended, roughly 5 hours before I said I'd be back. This is why I avently post that I'm town, because I dislike how the bandwagons start while I'm not around to go post by post to defend.

I like how he just expects a wagon on him at this point.

AV gets the gold. I claimed second to lowest on action resolution. I do consider Guard (1) to be above Mafia (0), did not take priest into consideration, but they would be third to lowest.

Reiterating my argument.

You're still not cleared in my book Snowblaze.

I mean, obviously. I still don't understand why Popo thought y'all thunderdoming would prove anything about y'all's alignments? Only an actual flip would do that, not leaving your vote on somebody all day.

Back then...
WW games were running week after week, often with the option of being in a possible 4 games at a time. This lead me to be more active as I was, in a bunch of games, without family care as a part of the time.
Bandwagons started with little logic, so I learned to be defensive first, solve next. Still a habit of mine
"But being selfish is wolfy" - see point above. I have not adjusted to the "Solve first to be town" yet.

I don't wanna be mean, but like...adjust please. If this is your towny behavior, where you're more interested in screaming your innocence at people rather than catching others in lies...it's good for ensuring that Supagoof gets to maximize the amount of time he spends playing, but it's not so good for town catching scum.

And now, a few other thoughts.
For my point on Snowblaze above, the Mafia is not it's own role. I find is highly sus that your plan to "king Snowblaze" and block the wolf kill, "if not - then it's gotta be Supagoof", to be a a wrong plan in the solve. If the assumption is 3+ mafia, then 2+ left means blocking 1 won't stop a kill since the other can perform it. And the more obvious thing is - it's clearly written in the first post that specific action will not work. See quote above.

I'm unclear why you suspect Snowblaze. Popo proposes a plan where he roleblocks Snowblaze to check if that blocks the kill, but you point out that the King can't block the kill, therefore since a kill happened Snowblaze is guilty? Can you clarify what your actual case is against Snow?

I looked at Gac3 last night, and was successful in figuring out his role. I will confirm my action with Gac3's permission. I won't out his role, without his consent.

Not that I'm necessarily sold on a gac3/Supagoof team (it's a possibility in my mind), but this can pretty easily read as "I arranged to guard-confirm my scumbuddies role last night, but I don't know if gac got Prince'd, so I'm waiting for me to give the go-ahead on that".

I think that's me being unfair, though. I could see townie doing this as well, ie "I saw your role but I don't wanna out you". If town, that's better than Popo or I did. So I'll call this part NAI.

Just a post to help AV with the insight on Popo.

NAI.

I didn't out you, I asked if you could be outed, because I
a. Used my power on you night 2
b. Was successful in my guess on you night 2.


My action night 2 was tho check that Gac3 was the Baron. I was successful, so I will confirm this.

Night 1 - I forgot to send an action in. I wasn't blocked or interfered with, I just plain forgot. That's on me, as I was away from checking the thread from Thu afternoon to Monday morning (CST time.). If this is the prime reason why I'm still getting cast shades about being a wolf, so be it. I'll be less defensive now about you guys always putting me as "Wolfish" instead of "Townish", and for other reasons.*

Since I can only see advantages to claiming at this point - I am the Guard. My role hasn't been switched.

*Other reasons - this weekend, I'll be AFK again as I'm taking my boys camping. Tonight IRL - I'll be taking my wife out for our anniversary. (16 years!). So I doubt I'll be posting as much. If Caoimhin is ok with it, I'll send a night action in early. I shall try to reveal said results of scry via my phone whilst I'm camping.

Nobody was aware that you skipped using your power until you brought it up here, AFAICT. The only person who could make such an accusation would be a priest, and I know I didn't scry you that first night. Honestly, though...since nobody brought it up before you did, that makes me think you were already thinking "people must be suspicious of me because a priest said something". Priests catching you is already on your mind, and I'll be honest: if I randed scum!guard this game, I might very well skip using my power and just do the NK every night, that way if I get caught once I can be like "I was just scrying him I swear! I didn't even get a positive response cuz I guessed wrong". That way if a Priest follows me, they see me only target one person. And then if I saw suspicion on me, my first thought would be "a priest saw me acting weird".

It's a weird form of projection, if y'all can follow my train of thought here. I should've gone to bed like an hour ago.

Hmmm...trying to make the game more fun and sparkly. Oh - back to roleplay.

Fun
Sir Goof spotted through the castle window the princess. She was watching and smiling, but then her face went blank and she fell. She disappeared from view, and this worried Sir Goof, as his only point with jousting was to gain her favor. His confidence dropped as doubt crept into his mind.

From the tower window, the town crier shouted the news. The princess had fainted from a mild poison.

The roar of the crowd went silent. Sir Goof refocused his attention again. His target was still ahead of him, still flying that banner of red and black. Now an evil smirk across his face. Who would be happy about such news. The brought the rage in Sir Goof's heart. He forcibly dropped his helmet. Grabbed and steadied his lance. The flag hadn't yet dropped, but Sir Goof dug his heels into the mare just the same. And was off.


Sparkly

Spoiler: Song!Wake me up - Artist!Wham

Show

Jitterbug
Jitterbug
Jitterbug

[Verse 1]
You gathered suspects right from the start
Your confidence and posts showed you are smart
"Is he lying" got into my brain (Yeah, yeah)
Goes a bang-bang-bang 'til my feet do the same

[Pre-Chorus]
But then you shaded me
Something ain't right
My suspicions rose after that first night
Left me guessing' in my head
I thought you wolfin' but I should've trusted you instead

[Chorus]
Another post, please Mr Popo
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
Another post, please Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunting tonight
I wanna get it riiiiiight
Yeah, yeah

[Verse 2]
You take the instincts out of the way
You made the accusations both night an day
Made a network into this game (Yeah, yeah)
Though I wasn't in it, didn't feel the same
'Cause you're a Genie, I'm no fool
It drove me crazy when you acted so cruel
Come on, Popo, let's not fight
We'll go hunting, everything will be alright

[Chorus]
Another post, please Mr Popo
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
Another post, please Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunt scum tonight
I wanna get it riiiiiight
Yeah, yeah

[Post-Chorus]
Jitterbug
Jitterbug


[Bridge]
Buckle up, maybe you got it right
Town be dancing tomorrow night
It's cold outside, but it's warm in here
We can dance, and will without any fear
Jitterbug

[Chorus]
Another post, please Mr Popo
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
Another post, please Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunt scum tonight
Another post, dear Mr Popo
(Don't you dare, to leave me hanging on like a yo-yo-yo-yo-yo)
Don't leave me hanging on like a yo-yo
Another post, please Mr Popo
(Let's go hunt scum)
I don't wanna miss it when you get it right
(A boom-boom-boom-boom, oh)
Another post, dear Mr Popo
'Cause I'm not plannin' on going solo
(A boom-boom-boom-boom, yeah, yeah, yeah!)
Another post, please Mr Popo
Let's go hunt scum tonight
Yeah, yeah

A nice long high-effort post from Supagood, and it's RP. I almost scumread this purely out of spite, but it's NAI.

I picked Gac as Baron to give a solid read to the priest with solid information to be verified in game. I hadn't seen anyone state what role Gac was.

I also thought that other actions N2 may interfere with other people I would have targeted. Like, picking someone who would have been handmaidened (Libro, AV, Popo), or picking someone who'd have been switching roles (Pretty sure Popo would get rid of his Kingship asap.) - so why bother with those of higher profile.

Night one, I missed - I hadn't put much thought into who would have been what role. When I returned on day 2, I just a list of suspects in my head from the time on day 1 that I did read at that point, that I wanted to know more about. Gac3 for pointing at me D1, Snow just because she's usually a power player, you because curious and hadn't played with you. So when I said you on my list when I returned on day 2, it was just because of curiosity. I had not at that point seen the wonders that Mr Popo had posted or had other hairs on the back of my head raised yet.

Xihirli because I believe Popo wouldn't not point at her unless his confidence was very high. As he stated before he wouldn't even if she was a scum due to her awesome RP posts.

Updated count

Batcathat 3 (AvatarVecna, gac3, Xihirli)
Xihirli 5 (Snowblaze, Batcathat, Rogan, Mr Popo, Supagoof)
Not posted: Libro.

We're following
the leader
the leader
the leader

We're following
the leader
wherever
he may go

I didn't have a hint from anywhere in game, just a hunch about gac as baron when I submitted my N2 action. My thinking in N2 (which didn't have solid evidence on anyone mind you) was that

Libro was Countess - alignment town
Popo was King - likely town
Popo/AV had line(s) of communication - which meant a trusted network.
I was pretty sure (still am) that someone in Popos trust list is untrustworthy. Given the other people would have had actions taken against them, I choose Gac as the least likely to be having this done. I then choose Baron would be a role of someone who could align wolf but get onto a trusted network. Recall my list of you/gac/snowblaze as scum during N2. N2s night results and D3s chatter has changed that list, but for N2 - that's where my head was at.

Also recall I posted early today that I scried gac3, but would not reveal the result of scry without his consent. Early in this day, we weren't talking about mass role claiming, so I wouldn't throw him under a bus or give scum more info that way.

As day progressed, mass role claiming became the thing, and when I returned, I revealed the result because gac said "as for revealing me, eh...." which I then took as permission. If his role was outed at that point, then I missed it. Please show me where it was outed before?

And before anyone asks "Why didn't you check that gac3 was Mafia?" - I didn't think scrying Mafia was possible, and I confirmed in QT with Caiomhin that it is not.

Sorry for the long explanation. But that's me, not hiding anything.

Once again, nobody was gonna call you out on this, you're preempting an argument that nobody has ever made against you. It's D4 and you're still harping on a point that nobody is holding over your head. We all know this is a game with no alignment seers. I can't think of a better example of a strawman argument than this. You're inventing weak arguments not a single living soul has considered making all game, and you're still acting as if that's the reason we're scumreading you.

I think Gac stating he was outed is a reference to my last post on page 12, where I definitely stated I scried him. Gac - was that your read?

As for Popo - I assumed he did have a network, given how much bravado he stated with the spidermans.

Popo outed him in post #401, I outed him in post #405

This post is the one I'm specifically referring too. It's ok though, kinda semantic from when you returned, and then when I returned.

I also now assume the network AV/Popo have is because you are the intermediary then. I thought it was larger due to the spidermen.

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah - that checks out to me too. I agree that Popo/AV/Gac/Libro are all town.

One of these things doesn't belong here. I won't say I'm not townreading gac3, but he's definitely on the low end of my townreads, especially not that Popo's dead. I've not seen anything this game that warrants putting him in the same "locktown" list as Popo or Libro.

True - until then it's the telephone game between AV-Gac and Gac-Popo.

Anyway - I'm leaving for the weekend. I've got my night action in already and will reveal it once I

• return
• get the results
• verify I lived through the night.

- - - Updated - - -

ninja'd - but what Gac said.

That's Supagoof's reaction to the D3 stuff. It's mostly focused on himself and the lingering suspicions on him, and the only mention of all the Xihirli stuff is "I'll do that I guess since Popo wants it done" and then he shuts up about it. It wasn't that strong a case, there were a lot of little holes, including "why even lie about being baron in the first place". But digging into it and questioning guilt looks bad if the person flips scum, so you just leave it entirely unaddressed.

I've already commented on the priest thing, so I won't go into that whole thing again. Needless to say, hard scum lean

[Supagoof]

Spoiler: Room where it happens by Miranda Lin-Manuel

Show

Ah, Mr. Popo!
Mr. Goof, sir
Did you hear the news about how I guess right, sir?
No
You know the games first post?
Yeah
I got one right sir
And the Supagoof read is sure
Sure
And all he has to do is die
And that's a lot less work!
We ought to give it a try
Heh
And how you gonna get your game plan through?
I guess I'm gonna have to finally listen to you.
Really?
Defend less, post more
Haha!
Do whatever it takes to get the game won on the daytime floor
Now Snowblaze and Rogan are merciless
Well, hate the sin love the sinner
Pop!
I'm sorry Goof I gotta go
Big decisions are happening over dinner

Two townies and a genius walk into a room
Systematically opposed
Foes
They emerge with a agreement
Having open doors that were previously closed
Bros
The genius emerges with unprecedented posting power
A system he can shape however he wants
The townies emerge with the plans to dispose
And here's the pièce de résistance
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one really knows how the game is played
The art of the trade
How the sausage gets made
We just assume that it happens
But no one else is in the room where it happens

Supagoof was away the one day it turned to distress and disarray
Supagoof said, "I've nowhere else to turn"
And basically begged town to join in the fray
He openly approached the town and said
"I know you don't know me, but please hear what I have to say"
Well, after the meeting
Gac3 arranged the menu, the venue, the seating
But
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one really knows how the parties get to "Yes"
The pieces that are sacrificed in every game of chess
We just assume that it happens
But no else is in the room where it happens

Snowblaze is grappling with the fact
That not every issue can be settled by committee
Townies is fighting over who else might be lynchable
It isn't pretty
BatCatHat approaches with the subtle slight
Snowblaze responds with fanatical insight
Maybe we could solve one problem with another
And win a victory for the two
In other words
Ho ho
A quid pro quo
I suppose
Wouldn't you like to work a little closer to home?
Actually, I would
Well, I propose the day 3
And you'll get him the votes?
Well, we'll see how it goes
Let's go
No!
...one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
Libro, In you we Trust
But we never really know what got discussed
Click boom! Then it happened
But no one else was in the room where it happened

What did they say to you to get you to sell me down the river
Can others confirm about the dinner
Was other suggested pressure to deliver?
Or did you know even then it doesn't matter where you put final lynch?
Cause there's enough in the trust, we're in the same spot
You got more than you gave
And I wanted what I got
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don't get a win unless you play in the game
Oh, you get love for it
You get hate for it
But you get nothing if you don't foray in the game
Oh help and forgive me
I wanna build something that's gonna outlive me
What do you want Goof? (What do you want Goof?)
What do you want Goof? (What do you want Goof?)
If you stand for nothing then what'll you fall for? (What do you want Goof?)

I, I wanna be in the room where it happens
The room where it happens
I wanna be in the room where it happens
The room where it happens
I (I wanna be in the room where it happens)
I wanna be in (the room where it happens)
The room where it happens
I (I wanna be in the room where it happens)
I wanna be in (the room where it happens)
The room where it happens
I wanna be in the room where it happens (Oh)
The room where it happens
The room where it happens (I wanna be in the room)
I wanna be in the room where it happens (I've got to be, I've got to be)
The room where it happens (Oh)
The room where it happens (That big old room, oh)
The art of the compromise
Hold your nose and close your eyes
We want our leaders to save the day
But we don't get a say in what they trade away
We dream of a brand new start
But we dream in the dark for the most part
Dark as a tomb where it happens
I've got to be in the room (room where it happens)
I gotta be (the room where it happens)
I gotta be (the room where it happens)
I've got to be in the room (the room where it happens)
I gotta be, I gotta be, gotta be (the room where it happens)
In the room (I wanna be in the room where it happens)
Click, boom

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Room where it happens by Miranda Lin-Manuel

Show

Ah, Mr. Popo!
Mr. Goof, sir
Did you hear the news about how I guess right, sir?
No
You know the games first post?
Yeah
I got one right sir
And the Supagoof read is sure
Sure
And all he has to do is die
And that's a lot less work!
We ought to give it a try
Heh
And how you gonna get your game plan through?
I guess I'm gonna have to finally listen to you.
Really?
Defend less, post more
Haha!
Do whatever it takes to get the game won on the daytime floor
Now Snowblaze and Rogan are merciless
Well, hate the sin love the sinner
Pop!
I'm sorry Goof I gotta go
Big decisions are happening over dinner

Two townies and a genius walk into a room
Systematically opposed
Foes
They emerge with a agreement
Having open doors that were previously closed
Bros
The genius emerges with unprecedented posting power
A system he can shape however he wants
The townies emerge with the plans to dispose
And here's the pièce de résistance
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one really knows how the game is played
The art of the trade
How the sausage gets made
We just assume that it happens
But no one else is in the room where it happens

Supagoof was away the one day it turned to distress and disarray
Supagoof said, "I've nowhere else to turn"
And basically begged town to join in the fray
He openly approached the town and said
"I know you don't know me, but please hear what I have to say"
Well, after the meeting
Gac3 arranged the menu, the venue, the seating
But
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one really knows how the parties get to "Yes"
The pieces that are sacrificed in every game of chess
We just assume that it happens
But no else is in the room where it happens

Snowblaze is grappling with the fact
That not every issue can be settled by committee
Townies is fighting over who else might be lynchable
It isn't pretty
BatCatHat approaches with the subtle slight
Snowblaze responds with fanatical insight
Maybe we could solve one problem with another
And win a victory for the two
In other words
Ho ho
A quid pro quo
I suppose
Wouldn't you like to work a little closer to home?
Actually, I would
Well, I propose the day 3
And you'll get him the votes?
Well, we'll see how it goes
Let's go
No!
...one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
No one else was in the room where it happened
The room where it happened
The room where it happened
Libro, In you we Trust
But we never really know what got discussed
Click boom! Then it happened
But no one else was in the room where it happened

What did they say to you to get you to sell me down the river
Can others confirm about the dinner
Was other suggested pressure to deliver?
Or did you know even then it doesn't matter where you put final lynch?
Cause there's enough in the trust, we're in the same spot
You got more than you gave
And I wanted what I got
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don't get a win unless you play in the game
Oh, you get love for it
You get hate for it
But you get nothing if you don't foray in the game
Oh help and forgive me
I wanna build something that's gonna outlive me
What do you want Goof? (What do you want Goof?)
What do you want Goof? (What do you want Goof?)
If you stand for nothing then what'll you fall for? (What do you want Goof?)

I, I wanna be in the room where it happens
The room where it happens
I wanna be in the room where it happens
The room where it happens
I (I wanna be in the room where it happens)
I wanna be in (the room where it happens)
The room where it happens
I (I wanna be in the room where it happens)
I wanna be in (the room where it happens)
The room where it happens
I wanna be in the room where it happens (Oh)
The room where it happens
The room where it happens (I wanna be in the room)
I wanna be in the room where it happens (I've got to be, I've got to be)
The room where it happens (Oh)
The room where it happens (That big old room, oh)
The art of the compromise
Hold your nose and close your eyes
We want our leaders to save the day
But we don't get a say in what they trade away
We dream of a brand new start
But we dream in the dark for the most part
Dark as a tomb where it happens
I've got to be in the room (room where it happens)
I gotta be (the room where it happens)
I gotta be (the room where it happens)
I've got to be in the room (the room where it happens)
I gotta be, I gotta be, gotta be (the room where it happens)
In the room (I wanna be in the room where it happens)
Click, boom

It's some of that, but it's really mostly the part where town goes "oh, you're town right? Well then X is definitely not your wolf partner, and therefore, you should have no problem voting them to save your own neck."

As soon as literally any townie says something like that, the "outed" wolf should be either lolcatting, trolling with their votes, or being dead silent.

There are no further viable moves, at all, period.

Presented without further comment.

[Supagoof]

That was fun to write, but alas, I can at this point say it offers no insight, and I have no more insight to give.

Trolling without further comment, lol. Review BCH's posts again for the past day?

When you only look through one view, you pile all your confirmations on that support that view to convince yourself you aren't wrong. And when you are so certain that you are right, you will question those that don't support the insight.

At least I have my death scene submitted and will probably get to see it.

"Xirihli also submitted a death scene, and they was scum. Burn Goof at the stake!"

Actually, I submitted it because it helps the narrators.

At least this town guard gets to die a king.

[AvatarVecna]

I'll be the first to admit: my case on BCH isn't airtight. It's entirely possible and plausible that Book Wombat just...baned themselves N1. A number of people seem to think they really wouldn't have done that, and would've baned Libro instead, but it's not exactly a slam dunk case. I could be wrong. I think it was a stronger case than we had against Xihirli, and then Xihirli flipped, so what do I know?

And then when it's Supagoof's turn in the gallows, the defense given is that BCH is a mastermind, manipulating AV and Snowblaze into lynching anybody else before BCH. And I'm just sitting here like...mastermind? Manipulating?

Spoiler: Batcathat D3 ISO

Show

This looks bad, no doubt about it. My only guess is that BW actually protected themselves on N1. Will have to think on this.

- - - Updated - - -



I don't think that's how the King works. The rules says "Each night, the player with the King may choose one other player in the game. They will switch roles so that the targeted player becomes the King and the original player gains a new Role." To me, that sounds like the original King gets a role from the unused ones, not their target's old role.

Immediate concern is self-defense.

I do not, I somehow skipped over that part and focused on the second part. I should know better than trying to analyze the rules this early in the morning. Objection withdrawn, your honor.

Doesn't really have a good reply, so drops that particular line of defense.

Yes, yes, no need to rub it in.

NAI.

Fair enough. Stupidity should have consequences, even when it's my own.



If nothing else, I do agree with your paranoia (he said to his number one suspect ), though I'm currently questioning AV rather than Popo. AV certainly could be a townie drawing entirely reasonable conclusions from the evidence at hand (Note to self: Must start checking extended signatures) but I could also see a wolf finding a perfect way to get a mislynch without looking especially bad afterwards.

Casting shade on the case without directly addressing it.

Aw, I could've had something more useful than the world's most limited scrying power? Stupid king.

NAI.

While that is the truth, it would also be a kinda clever (if possibly obvious) wolf move to go all "Oh, I most certainly didn't know Book Wombat was gonna die, look at all the work I did in vain".



I'm not sure what you mean, was the list supposed to be from the least suspect to the most suspect? My intention was to label Snow, Emmy and BW my number one, two and three suspects



Sure, it's entirely possible BW protected someone else, all I know is that he didn't protect Libro.

You'd think scum would have a better defense than this, but really there's nothing to be done about it. Without BW here to definitively say one way or the other, we're talking in circles. BCH claims to know Libro wasn't baned, and nobody believes them because why wouldn't Libro be baned.

Then I'm sorry to say you made a mistake somewhere along the way (or you're a wolf and I'm even more sorry ). Isn't part of your big process to ask yourself "Is there some way this suspected wolf could be town?" or something like that? Because the only thing necessary for me to be town is for BW not to use their power in the most rational way.

I get why I look very suspect, I do, but keep the above in mind and at least look at alternate possibilities.

Being defensive about being defensive? That's very meta if nothing else.

That said, sticking to Snow despite me being the clear wolfy flavor of the day is... good, I guess? Unless you're just scared of Popo's ultimatum.

Since it seems likely we'll be wagon one and two today, I should probably take a second look at your ISO. Though probably after I do Xi's, while I have a good feeling about her, I suppose she could be a wolf just coasting through the chaos.

- - - Updated - - -



Ah, nevermind then.

Oho seems we've got jokes.

Here's my thoughts on Xi. Obviously not my main concern at the moment, but I was going crazy trying to figure out a convincing argument (and I'm not sure there is one). I'll get back to it though, I'd rather live somewhat suspect than be cleared in death. Until then, if any other guards checked out Libro N1, please speak up.

[ISO removed]

Overall, I think I might lean a little more wolfy on Xi (there was a few things I didn't like in the posts and I feel like I might've overvalued a few of my "this seems like something wolf Xi would/wouldn't do" considering I don't know her that well) but still mostly towards town.

I appreciate the effort going into actually solving things, even if this can definitely be read as trying to throw a scumbuddy under the bus after the fact. It could be a doomed townie trying their best to contribute before dying.

And here I was ready to ease up on my suspicion of you if you kept defending me, on the logic that while talking up a townie can make sense from a wolf perspective, actively fighting to stop a mislynch seems a bit extreme. I won't hold agreeing with the accusation against you though, AV's case is annoyingly good.

Snowblaze then.



I think you might be overanalyzing a joke. Or using it to fuel the fire a little bit more, I suppose.

NAI.

Great, now I'm kind of terrified of Mr Popo. Or possibly of AV. Or both.

This is mostly my infamous paranoia speaking, no need to take it too seriously even after I flip. I'm mostly looking forward to the second part.

Joke, NAI.

Fair point, but I want everyone to ask themselves whether it seems likely that I would make the same mistake again after the comedy of errors that was my participation in Percy Jackson.

(Yes, I realize that my present defense if "Book Wombat wasn't that smart" and "I wasn't that dumb". Hardly the iron-clad argument that was requested, I know).

Lampshading the weakness of their own argument...because arguing in your own self-defense isn't actually all that helpful.

I was writing down what I meant to be some final thoughts to share before getting lynched but once I had written them I figured I might as well post them right away. Nothing major but you never know what might help going forward. Those of you too convinced of my guilt to believe a word I say are welcome to come back after my flip.

• gac3 – I was suspecting him early on but he has since sort of fallen off my radar. If I had to guess, I'd probably say town.
• AvatarVecna – It's kind of hard to look past the whole "basically sentenced me to die" part and I still can't decide whether I think it was a clever (and lucky, unless the wolves somehow manipulated BW) wolf plan or an innocent townie coming to a reasonable conclusion. Maybe a very slight town lean in general?
• Xihirli – Maybe a slight town lean but less than before.
• Snowblaze – Still feels wolfy and her "Gosh darnit, I messed up again" attitude isn't helping.
• Libro – Is the Countess, so town. I suppose my death will remove any lingering doubt about this, at least.
• Supagoof – Feels wolfy, but I suspected BW for a lot of the same reasons and that didn't turn out great.
• Mr. Popo – Maybe it's AV's scum-assuming ISO, maybe it's how confident he seems in my guilt (though if that initial stream of consciousness confusion was faked, it was beautifully done) but I don't feel good about Popo. Though the combination of playstyle and unfamiliarity makes him the hardest to analyze.
• Rogan – Probably my strongest town lean now, even if I'm still a little worried it's because we've come to a lot of the same conclusions.

I might end up posting a new one tomorrow after going over my ISOs again. I suppose I should logically at least try to look at Popo and/or AV, but for someone basically working his way through ISOs 101 that feels rather overwhelming.

If town decides you need to be tested, and you're town, the best thing you can do is provide all the thoughts you can on everything. BCH isn't going that hard, but effort is going into analysis that a wolf wouldn't have had.

It's sweet of you to think I'll get the chance to use my power again, but sure, if I do I'm very open to suggestions. It is indeed hard to properly use. Using it on Libro was very unlikely to pay off (though it probably getting me killed was certainly unexpected) and last night's use was even less so (at best I could've trusted someone else completely).

- - - Updated - - -



I'm not sure I completely follow your plan, but why would this even be necessary? Can't I just target you with a normal guess?

NAI.

I'd probably switch Popo with Goof and maybe gac with Xi but otherwise it seems pretty close to what I'm thinking. Though aside from Libro staying at the top, pretty much everything is very open. I'm not in a very confident mood regarding any of this.

NAI.

I assumed a guard's target would transfer to another single-target role but I suppose you could be right. But yeah, if a guard became a baron that probably wouldn't work.

NAI.

Now I feel a little worse about gac. Following along with suspecting me while also questioning it enough to look good after I flip could be wolfy. Or just being unsure, I can certainly empathize.

NAI.

Yes and no. I absolutely intend to keep defending myself (and failing that, giving as much help as I can going forward) until I'm lynched but I accept that the case against me is very strong and I'm unlikely to convince everyone. I can and have provide alternate explanations and alternate suspects but unless I discover that someone said "By the way, I'm a wolf" somewhere in the thread, I don't think it's likely to sway the vote.

I'm not really sure what questioning you mean. I think (a town) AV and I agree for the most part. BW not protecting Libro N1 is unlikely, I just know it must have happened. But by all means – if anyone has any questions I'm happy to answer them to the best of my ability.

I've been trying to come up with some alternative to BW just chosing not to protect the Countess but nothing seems to work, even assuming pretty much everyone else lied about their claims. The one scenario I suppose is possible is that BW wasn't the handmaid to start with (and intentionally lied about it in the sig) but got turned into it N1. But even assuming I haven't overlooked something else, being turned into the very role you lied about being seems very unlikely. So I think the most likely scenario is the obvious one – BW didn't protect Libro. Maybe they realized it was a mistake and did so N2, only to get killed themselves instead. I don't know.



That's kind of funny, that's sort of the reverse of how my brain and gut feel about you.

Going back to Goof is an interesting move in a situation where no one would have blamed you for sticking to me. I suppose it could be the same as I accused gac of earlier – to look good after I flip. But I guess that voting Supagoof is the smart move for both selfish reasons and the good of the town. If he does flip wolf I was probably wrong about you, turning on your wolf buddy in this situation seems very unnecessary.

Is this scum defending themselves? Refuge in confusion?

As I said, the reason I targeted Libro was partly for the (probably very slight) chance that the claim was false for some reason but primarily because I couldn't think of a better use for it, since its use is so limited.

The case against me is basically based on both BW and myself using our powers in an optimal fashion N1. Which is not an unreasonable assumption to make but it is hardly the only alternative.

The case against BCH is that you're only innocent if you both behaved inoptimally. BW should've targeted Libro, and you should've targeted anybody but Libro on the assumption that he'd be baned.

I gave them a (very) quick look but I can't say I found anything that stands out or hasn't already been discussed. Considering how much time he spent talking about Popo, targeting him is certainly possible but that's hardly news. I even tried finding signs in his RP letter that it was from the perspective of the King but couldn't find anything.

NAI, altho effort is appreciated I suppose.

I can't find any flaws in the reasoning, except maybe AV could be lying (even if it seems like a weird lie, even from a wolf), but right now I don't have a ton of confidence in either my own grasp of the mechanics or you. Will have to think about it and see if anyone else spots any holes or red flags I might be missing right now.

There were a lot of holes in the case (mostly small weird edge-case things), and none of it mattered in the end. This is probably the scummy thing from BCH besides the mech stuff: if they're scum, they went all-in on Xi instead of trying to nitpick the case to death. The only point made against the case is actually character assassination on me, to make their own chances of getting lynched less likely. This is possibly the one post in this ISO that could be earnestly called manipulative, if it was on purpose.

I mentioned it in my ISO on Xi, I checked if she was the Princess N2. I'm the first to admit this probably wasn't the most optimal use of the power either, but I'm having trouble finding good ways to use it and I figured "Xi might be jokingly imply she's the Princess while actually being the Princess" seemed possible. I could have checked some claim, but with most roles being of either alignment I wasn't sure how helpful it'd be.

NAI.

The mechanics are tricky and currently I'm very open to alternative explanations to what seems like a smoking gun for some reason but this does not convince me, Xihirli.

NAI. Could be honest, could be bussing.

Sure, I mostly really wanted to have someone (besides Libro) I knew I could trust completely and was lacking in other ideas.

It's funny how it seems like this lynch might come down to "which one honestly screwed up and which one is a lying lier". I suppose there's a chance Xi's innocent too, but that just seem too lucky (or possibly clever) on the part of the wolves.

Another post criticizing my case without directly addressing it. In fairness, because addressing it is just running in circles of "but why not bane Libro" "but Libro wasn't baned".

For the first time since AV's initial case against me, I have some hope to actually survive the day. Which is nice, even if I suspect I'll probably get lynched D4 instead, whether or not Xi flips wolf.

If she does flip wolf, at least I can trust Snow again. Not even my paranoid mind can think of an explanation for why she would create a very strong case against a fellow wolf out of nowhere and for seemingly no reason (if that's the case, I've gone from town reading Snow when she was a serial killer to wolf reading her when she's town. That's some questionable progress but I can live with that).

My suspicions against Goof are pretty much unchanged, regardless of Xi and Snow. He probably is a wolf and the only reason I can see myself not voting for him D4 (assuming Xi's lynched and flips wolf) is some sign that there's another wolf and who that is. Unless Goof's a lot more active behind the scenes than he is in the thread, he's probably not the most dangerous wolf (assuming he's not the last wolf and most dangerous by default, of course).

I'll still try to look over my ISOs before end of day, in case I get lynched, but with both Goof and Xi posting fairly little I doubt there's much I can find.

Self-focused, but still giving reads. NAI.

I might be biased but if I had to pick between someone who definitelylied (possibly unintentionally, possibly for some very unclear but good and/or funny reason, but definitely lied) or someone who might be entirely truthful as long as someone else used a less than optimal strategy I know who I'd pick...

Obviously pushing to not get lynched. Is weird if they're w/w with Xi, but not entirely unreasonable. Making the best of a bad situation, perhaps.

In addition to what Rogan has already pointed out, I find this part rather suspicious. While the mechanics are a little tricky, the part about not being able to scry alignment has been pretty obvious from the start, no? This feels like someone trying a little too hard, I think.

Yeah, AV and Popo has been my most paranoid fear for most of the game, but it does seem fairly unlikely.

Also, now I'm gonna imagine everything Popo writes in a Mr. T voice. Feels weirdly fitting.

NAI.

Yeah, I should really do the same. Hopefully I'll still be alive when I wake up but in case the votes move around, I suppose I should wish the Loyal Followers of the Princess good luck. I'd hoped to (potentially) leave with some final insight but at least I feel pretty good about our chances of winning, even if you do end up lynching me.

NAI.

Well, then I have some good news for you.

I suspect my personal puzzle will be coming up with an argument good enough for why Supagoof (or possibly someone else) should be lynched before me. You're welcome to help.

Could be a scumslip - like a little joke of:

"I hope BCH is town, or there's 4 scum, so the game keeps going"
"good news!"

could be sarcastic "good news" about "BCH is town" or "there's 4 scum".

Of course. It's just that from my perspective the game is basically already won and I would prefer to be alive to see it. Don't worry, I'm sure my general paranoia will keep me looking at everyone else besides Goof too. (Except for Snow, who I guess went from my top wolf read to my strongest non-Libro town read).

Wow that's a familiar sounding argument. Is nobody willing to make the sacrifice play except me and Popo?

I'm probably just missing something that is indeed obvious but what reasons are those?

NAI.

Huh? Snow created the case against Xi while AV tried to find alternative explanations for Xi's actions and pushed for lynching me first. Not necessarily wolfy (the case against me was good and there could have been an innocent explanation for Xi) but I can't see why it'd be non-wolfy either.

I really like this post because it's kinda true. While I helped the case get started, I was constantly undermining it. Popo gave me a lot of credit I didn't deserve, and scum!BCH could've just let it slide and stayed off Popo's radar, but instead pushed back against Popo's strongest townlean. Does scum do that?

If I have the time I might actually give it a shot, if only for the practice (I might try the "assume scum" approach AV did on you) and to possibly silence the tinfoil trash person that is my subconscious. I see your point about unparing Xi and AV better now, even if I don't think it's as solid as you seem to (then again, I'm not sure I'm as confident in anything as you seem to be about almost everything )

NAI.

I know, even if I start it's probably unlikely that I get anywhere close to finished. It's not even that I have that strong suspicions against you and more that I don't like how much Popo seems to trust you. If you are a wolf, you and Popo (whether another wolf or townie) can probably steer the discussion enough that you'll never get lynched.

But hopefully I'm overthinking things and Goof is the last wolf (I don't really understand why Popo suddenly likes him so much better, I need to reread some posts, I think).

- - - Updated - - -



You're probably right and I'm well aware of the benefits of confidence (the people used to my wishy-washy wolf-reads here would probably be surprised to see what a cocky bastard I am at work ). I think it's mostly how inexperienced I still am at this (it's my sixth game in total and your... six hundred? Six thousand?) and that I usually need something to base my confidence on.

NAI.

I haven't been caught lying though. I have been "caught" saying something that, again, could very well be true if neither BW nor myself used our powers the most optimal way N1. You said it yourself (at least I think it was you, someone said it), people often protect themselves N1. There was someone who was probably a better target, sure, but clearly BW decided to protect themselves (or some third person) for whatever reason.

But I've made this argument like five times already without much luck, so I'll probably only be proven right in death. I suppose I can live (well, y'know) with that.



Her. And I don't know about anyone else but I guess I did forget that you said this. Makes me feel even better about town reading you, at least.

This is the only possible line of defense, so it gets consistently presented.

Yes, clearly I should have alternated between confidently accusing everyone and confidently defending everyone instead. Y'know, like the pros.

NAI

Oh, I don't doubt your approach works better. Whichever side wins, whichever one you belong to, it's pretty clear your method worked better to drive the discussion and push your narrative. I just found it funny. I've yet to see if you quite live up to your own hype, but you certainly liven up the games, I'll give you that.

On a more serious note, I don't love the fact that (assuming you get the people with you) the next two lynches looks like it'll be me and the guy whose been, if not my strongest town read, than probably at least my most consistent one. I think you might being over analyzing him snapping a little over feeling he didn't get the credit he deserved.

NAI. I made this same observation, and it'd be just as easy for scum to do so as well regardless of Rogan's alignment. Popo took Rogan's annoyance very personally.

I decided to try and check out the claim of one of my fellow guards and it turns out that Supagoof is NOT a guard. Not damning in itself, of course, as someone might've messed with his role, but not a good look.

The first chance to get a case going on somebody else, they take it. As soon as I saw this, I immediately thought "Prince or King targeted Supagoof" in the night, and I guessed King more likely than Prince. Sure enough, Snowblaze almost immediately confirmed my unspoken prediction.

If it's more than a coincidence, I think it's more likely an attempt to frame Rogan. Aside from "kill whoever suspects me" seeming like a rather short-sighted stratergy in general, doing it again after it was pointed out after blade's death feels odd. I suppose it could be some sort of "no one would be stupid enough to do that" attempt but I still feel pretty good about Rogan.

Good to know about Goof, but I'm keeping my vote on him for now, unless a better option presents itself. I suppose it further decreases the already very slim chance of you and Goof being wolf buddies.

Plausible. I'll hold judgement on giving this post credit for making a good argument or not until I've seen BCH swing.

Are you saving Supagoof for later or just randomly excluding him from your suspect list? I can see why I'm suspect number one (damnit BW, couldn't you just have protected Libro N1?) but surely Goof is as suspect as Rogan or gac, if not more.

Focused on self-preservation as always.

I guess I can sympathize with that and I suppose a lot of the things that feel wolfy about Goof to me also made me suspicious of BW and those suspicions turned out rather unfounded.

I'll try to take a look at all the main suspects with fresh eyes and an open mind, but at the moment I'd still rather vote Goof than Rogan. Of course, if it comes down to Rogan or I, I'll change my vote (I guess a case could be made that a towny Rogan would be a greater loss to town than myself, on account of being more experienced, but I'm not certain about him enough to self lynch on account of that).

BCH admitting the only viable alternate wagon has flaws.

Things seem quiet today. I wonder if it's the absence of Popo or people just being busy? (I've spent most of the day putting together a home theater system. So many wires, so many settings, makes my head hurt...)

Tomorrow I'll hopefully have more time to go over at least Goof, gac and Rogan again. Maybe AV too, if I have even more time (I don't really suspect AV that much, but avoiding looking closer at someone out of laziness seems sloppy and possibly risky ).

NAI.

I'll try to take a look, but I probably won't have the time until later today.

If your suspicions turns out to be correct, you might've saved me from getting lynched for the second time in a row, which would be a nice change of pace from our pattern of screwing each other over (despite my best attempts earlier this game).

NAI

I suppose being suspect in this game is sort of like being chased by a bear, you don't have to be the fastest – just not the slowest.

Hopefully Goof is the last wolf, otherwise I'm guessing I'll be up for my next club term by D5.

NAI.

You mean your realization about Goof? I had already voted him before then, so if there was a bus I was already on it.

- - - Updated - - -

Or did you mean about Xi? If so, I can sort of see your point, but keep in mind that at the time you were my strongest wolf read and I was leaning town on Xi (even if I did it less after my ISO on her).

NAI.

Incidentally, that's pretty much exactly how I feel as well.

I really do hope you're the last wolf, otherwise I'm gonna feel a lot worse about our chances of winning.

NAI.

BCH is trying to give a self-defense, and instead basically every time they pop up to say "yeah you should lynch that person instead of me for some reason", I personally think "oh yeah, I need to re-consider if I should be lynching BCH instead of this other person". Medium Scum Lean.

- - - Updated - - -

Should've been asleep hours ago. Later skaters.