Love Letter Mafia

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Handmaiden maths

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My reasoning: we have 16 roles, of which 3 are wolves and two unused. So the probability of the first Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 5/16.

Given this, there are 15 roles left of which 4 are unused, so the probability of the second Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 4/15.

Multiplying this gives 1/12. Though now I think about it I’m really scared I’m going about it the wrong way. I hate probability sometimes.

Can I get people’s thoughts on Rogan’s post above? A lot of it is talking about me so I might be biased.

Also, Rogan, how random is your AV vote?

Your math is fine, which I realized some minutes after I made the post. At first, I had tried to take all roles into account, which made the calculation a bit more complex. Sometimes, you miss the forest since you see so many trees.

Well, it's not RNG random. AV

- is allways a good day 1 target
- had one vote already

Currently, there are 4 players I would not vote for.
[Rogan, Snow, Mr Popo, Xi]
And I didn't want to start a new wagon without a good reason. (Which I currently don't have). So I picked someone with one vote, who I would not mind getting eliminated. And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 ammuses me

[Mr Popo]

I am willing to arrest Vecna at this time. While certainly formidable as a deity, I believe this planet already has a god of destruction and death.

Spoiler

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Of those accusing Vecna, I have a mixed read on Jeen, and if Vecna were to be disloyal I would feel better about Jeen. The big picture looks okay, but picking the wording apart gives me concerns. Rogan is fine for now, but that's not a read. That's a blind guess based on scary genie magic and little more. Reasons for voting Vecna are thin.

"is allways a good day 1 target
had one vote already"

Is not great.

"And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 amuses me" is particularly poor.

If Vecna had anything going for them, I would look at both votes for Vecna with a suspicious eye and actually defend Vecna, despite my distaste for the undead. Lo, they are sick icky things and must be cleansed with holy fire.

Vecna:

As for who Vecna is accusing, I distrust the accusation of Libro, who I have no special reason to care about other than it is possible they are loyal despite being tardy. Of the things Vecna is doing, none of those read as being loyal.

Given the relatively short time remaining in the first Day, I would advise Vecna that they may die today unless they reverse opinions and if they are going to claim it should be sooner rather than later.

If it happens at the last minute, there are a very narrow set of circumstances where I would move my vote.

Alternatives:

Not Snowblaze,
Not Bladescape,
Not Xihirli at present
Not BattheCat at present,
Not anyone who has posted zero times.

Gac3, perhaps, but an abundance of caution leads me to reserve judgment.

My notebook is open, you can read it if you wish. I care not.

[Grand Arbiter]

I only have so much time in a lunch break and I spent most of it eating and typing a reply to a different thread.

I’ll return later to type more. In the meantime, I have two questions I’d like to ask…

1) Are you feeling lucky?

By the way, Mr Popo is the count (gender corrected. I am MISTER Popo) in case anyone cares.

2) Are you damn sure about this?

[Mr Popo]

Can I get people’s thoughts on Rogan’s post above?

If you can point me to what you find noteworthy about it I will give you an opinion. Right now I am distracted and am not seeing what would be actionable.

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Are you sure about this?

Looks down, sees rather indicative genitalia.

Yes.

I am pretty sure that you shouldn't be arrested and executed today simply because you were late.

I think it is in our best interests not to mass claim at this time, though as I said (look back) I think Snowblaze is town for her suggestion. I reached the conclusion that we should not be mass claiming shortly after seeing her post.

She thinks she can break the game open with her plan. While I think it can be helpful to know where not to look, it also just hands the disloyal people our more powerful roles. I consider that to be unwise at this time since we seem to lack a doctor (baner, protector, whatever your term is) for anyone but the Princess.

No worries, Libro. I won't let anything happen to you while you are asleep.

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In fact, Libro, if you would assist me in exorcising the Lich-god Vecna, I would be quite in your debt.

Should Vecna flip disloyal, I am willing to lock you "loyal" for the remainder of the game.

If you have an alternative suggestion that is not myself, I am wholly obligated to listen to you very closely.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Just wanted to chime in on the setting discussion:

My initial idea of the setting was vaguely Shakespearean and similar to the card game that was the inspiration for the setup. As for roles, the intent was that you and your Role are separate people working together, like myself and Queen Mariana in the example. This would account for role switching roles throughout the game.


But honestly, as long as everyone understands the powers and how swapping works, it doesn't matter. Flavor is there for fun and I already stretched it myself. Keep doing what you're doing.

---

Also, I just realised: with Caoimhin narrating we don’t have a resident vote counter any more.

Technically I will be posting one vote count per Day - it just happens to be part of the lynch reveal

[Rogan]

I am willing to arrest Vecna at this time. While certainly formidable as a deity, I believe this planet already has a god of destruction and death.

Reasons for voting Vecna are thin.

"And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 amuses me" is particularly poor.

If Vecna had anything going for them, I would look at both votes for Vecna with a suspicious eye and actually defend Vecna, despite my distaste for the undead. Lo, they are sick icky things and must be cleansed with holy fire.

Given the relatively short time remaining in the first Day, I would advise Vecna that they may die today unless they reverse opinions and if they are going to claim it should be sooner rather than later.

Of course the reasons are thin. It's day 1 and, at the time of my vote, page 1. There simply is not much to go by, so I can take an option which I amuses me. It's not like I can't change my vote again, if someone pops up who is more suspicous.
And, as you made sure to point out, there is no reason NOT to vote for AV at the moment.

About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.

I can also step in to clarify timing, Rogan is correct that you have 1 day, 9 hours, 45 ish minutes. If anyone wants me to include their local time in addition to EST, let me know and I can do that.

[Rogan]

2) Are you damn sure about this?

Is this a counterclaim?

Looks down, sees rather indicative genitalia.

Yes.

Or just this joke?

[Xihirli]

This entire place is quite the photo opportunity: The empty labs, the weather-worn boats covered in sea slime, the sun-bleached life jackets resting on rotted decks. The old nuclear plant across the water. Rylan’s body at the bottom of the lake. How could I pass that up?

It turns out your light wasn’t a fluke, but I’m afraid I still haven’t quite figured out what to make of it after yesterday. Are you mocking me? Beckoning me? Obviously expecting a letter back would be silly, seeing as…well. But what is it you’re trying to communicate? I will continue to watch.
5:51pm. See you soon.

Cordially,
Your Enemy

Cao, can you define "Shakespearian?" There's a lot of variance there.

[Batcathat]

About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.

I think that's right. At least, that's what I got too and I think we're in the same time zone. But I'm frequently confused by time zones so it's entirely possible I've made a mistake.

So I probably won't be around for EoD much this game. I would appreciate it if everyone would schedule their game changing revelations for earlier in the day.

[Rogan]

I can also step in to clarify timing, Rogan is correct that you have 1 day, 9 hours, 45 ish minutes. If anyone wants me to include their local time in addition to EST, let me know and I can do that.

Thanks for the answer. And while I obviously CAN do the conversion myself, I certainly would not mind if you would include the CEST. Especialy if someone else would profit from this as well.

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I think that's right. At least, that's what I got too and I think we're in the same time zone. But I'm frequently confused by time zones so it's entirely possible I've made a mistake.

So I probably won't be around for EoD much this game. I would appreciate it if everyone would schedule their game changing revelations for earlier in the day.

Okay, I want to include BatCatHat in my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game. Having someone with similar timezones can be useful.

[Snowblaze]

It's more a general thing, wrt the Rogan post. My gut thinks their treatment of me could be wolfy but I tend to second-guess my early reads a lot.

Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.

I wouldn't say I can "break the game open" with my plan; I just think it's beneficial to town at (relatively) little risk.

[Rogan]

It's more a general thing, wrt the Rogan post. My gut thinks their treatment of me could be wolfy but I tend to second-guess my early reads a lot.

Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.

I wouldn't say I can "break the game open" with my plan; I just think it's beneficial to town at (relatively) little risk.

I am slightly paranoid regarding you since I remember your performance in PJ. You are increadibly good at avoiding the lynch, even if you deserve it. And in our second game together, you managed to survive a day where you were known to be the serial killer. (To be fair, your contender for the lynch was a baddy as well, so this should not count).

So I could see a world where you are a wolf, suggest a plan you know will fail, telegraph this possibilty AND get away with it. Those are things I propably won't have to worry about, I know. But I still have them in my mind and you might remember something about me: I still have to learn when to shut up!

All in all, I think you are more likely to be town than wolf. But I respect your skills enough to think you could fake this. And I would like to know if I am the only one who thinks that way.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Cao, can you define "Shakespearian?" There's a lot of variance there.

Yeah, that's fair (and kinda why I said vague). The game setting is described below. For the record, this is all for flavor - it doesn't affect gameplay at all, just here for those interested.

Spoiler: Setting Info

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The City-State of Tempest is a lively metropolis—some say the largest in the world—yet behind the city's cultured exterior, age-old cabals vie for power, fighting one another for dominance in a society ripe with political and economic turmoil. Led by shadowy figures who command a small cadre of loyal followers, these secret societies work in concert to seize the wealth and power of the fabled City-State of Tempest.

If I'm picking a play, Romeo & Juliet or The Merchant of Venice feels right? It's not like the kill'em all tragedy like Titus Andronicus. As for the look:

Spoiler: Card Artwork

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[Snowblaze]

To her unhappiness, the servant added confusion. She knew about the games nobles played for royal favour and the luxuries it brought. But this was altogether a different game. And one that could be far more dangerous.

Was the person naming themselves a god of death part of the conspiracy, or did they simply enjoy courting controversy? Were their accusers trying to pervert justice, or trying in good faith to find the Queen's followers? Why would the man who had before been silent ask such peculiar questions?

And, most of all, why did she have to be caught in the middle of this mess?

(Hey, this is actually a pretty good outlet for general confusion and paranoia!)

Also I see Rogan is paranoid about me. I suppose I should take it as a compliment. It makes sense, I guess. I'll think about it, but right now I need to do IRL stuff. See you all later/tomorrow.

[Batcathat]

I am slightly paranoid regarding you since I remember your performance in PJ. You are increadibly good at avoiding the lynch, even if you deserve it. And in our second game together, you managed to survive a day where you were known to be the serial killer. (To be fair, your contender for the lynch was a baddy as well, so this should not count).

I'm a little worried about the same thing. Snow always kinda reads as town to me.

That said, I don't have any actual suspicions about Snow at this time and my vote for her remains a "it's early D1, let's vote for whoever" type thing. I suppose it's entirely possible that she actually is what she seems this time.

[Book Wombat]

I have a thought, what if the Princess or Countess role is currently not in use? The role descriptions do not appear to say if they will always be in use at the very beginning, only that if someone gains the role they will not be able to change it.
If the Queen's Servants know that one or both roles are missing they could easily fake-claim. Just speculation but who knows?

[Rogan]

I have a thought, what if the Princess or Countess role is currently not in use? The role descriptions do not appear to say if they will always be in use at the very beginning, only that if someone gains the role they will not be able to change it.
If the Queen's Servants know that one or both roles are missing they could easily fake-claim. Just speculation but who knows?

Snow had this in mind.
The roles are not out of the game forever, so sooner or later, the bluff will be called and the wolves loose one teammember.

[Batcathat]

I have a thought, what if the Princess or Countess role is currently not in use? The role descriptions do not appear to say if they will always be in use at the very beginning, only that if someone gains the role they will not be able to change it.
If the Queen's Servants know that one or both roles are missing they could easily fake-claim. Just speculation but who knows?

They could probably claim Countess but since the Princess can get Narrator confirmation on a claim, it seems insanely risky to fake-claim since I don't think there's any reason for a Princess to publically claim and not use her power.

[Rogan]

They could probably claim Countess but since the Princess can get Narrator confirmation on a claim, it seems insanely risky to fake-claim since I don't think there's any reason for a Princess to publically claim and not use her power.

I would even say, it propably is not possible to claim Princess without using the power. Otherwise, it would be a tad bit unfair. Claiming Princess has a cost attached, not being a valid target for the Baron or the Handmaiden.

[Book Wombat]

Another thought, the Countess' role seems to like it's her purpose to sacrifice herself for the Princess after the reveal.

[Mr Popo]

They could probably claim Countess but since the Princess can get Narrator confirmation on a claim, it seems insanely risky to fake-claim since I don't think there's any reason for a Princess to publically claim and not use her power.

Well, they can't fake claim Countess anymore, because there definitely is a person of that rank in the game, given what you have already seen here today. Who that person is shall truly remain a mystery for the ages.

Another thought, the Countess' role seems to like it's her purpose to sacrifice herself for the Princess after the reveal.

And it would be my pleasure to give my life for the cause of the Princess and all her loyal partners of lesser rank. It's sort of what I do. Don't worry about me, I am still the most powerful being in the multiverse. I'll be fine.

I punched a god of death in the face on day one. Clearly I must be packing something ballsy in these pants.

[JeenLeen]

I would even say, it propably is not possible to claim Princess without using the power. Otherwise, it would be a tad bit unfair. Claiming Princess has a cost attached, not being a valid target for the Baron or the Handmaiden.

From the rules, it sounds like you only power-claim Princess if you type the keywords in bold. The Princess could 'soft-claim' Princess, or anyone could fakeclaim Princess.
It also seems implies that anyone could type the keyword in bold to fakeclaim Princess, but of course such would be found out once it becomes clear we're not just waiting on Cao to confirm.

@Cao: could you confirm if the above is correct? Also, if someone fakeclaims Princess via typing the keywords in bold, would you officially state they are not the Princess, or would you purposefully not respond?

[Mr Popo]

I have an idea, let's not systematically give hints as to who the Princess is not.

As far as I am concerned, everyone is the Princess, including me.

And if you imply you're not, I would like a few words with your corpse at sundown.

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About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.

Yes, that is my bad. I live in a timezone that is different.

But still, I don't have a ton of time during day and the Day is half over and we're missing a lot of activity, and lots of folks don't ever check back in.

It's far easier to be disloyal when the loyal persons are uncoordinated and scattered throughout the day and/or not here.

[Xihirli]

My Dearest Enemy,

I have tried to have my fair share of fun since I was last here. To forget.
I spent a good portion of my early twenties trying to decide what was worth my time. Not much was, but certainly not the law. Clearly, I’ve never been one for rules. One of my first jobs was as a clerk in the old courthouse here at home–I only got it because my aunt was a bailiff at the time. Something tells me, though, that they ended up wishing they’d at least interviewed me first.


You're all princesses!

Yes, we're all princesses!

I'm not.

Shh.

[Rogan]

From the rules, it sounds like you only power-claim Princess if you type the keywords in bold. The Princess could 'soft-claim' Princess, or anyone could fakeclaim Princess.
It also seems implies that anyone could type the keyword in bold to fakeclaim Princess, but of course such would be found out once it becomes clear we're not just waiting on Cao to confirm.

@Cao: could you confirm if the above is correct? Also, if someone fakeclaims Princess via typing the keywords in bold, would you officially state they are not the Princess, or would you purposefully not respond?

I have to admit, the rules don't strictly support my idea. But I stand by the point: Being able to claim Princess (without the mechanical benefit of being unvotable, but come on... who would vote for an uncontested Princess claim, unless the person was very suspicious before and it seems like an last second try to get a second chance) without taking the drawback feels like cheating to me.
Of course, there is a blury line somewhere. What counts as a soft-claiming, what is hard claiming? But in my mind, someone stating 'I am the Princess' without using bold should still count as using the ability.
But this is my personal oppinion. I would be glad about a clarification from Cao.
I'm sorry if I said something contradicting the actual rules.

Yes, that is my bad. I live in a timezone that is different.

But still, I don't have a ton of time during day and the Day is half over and we're missing a lot of activity, and lots of folks don't ever check back in.

It's far easier to be disloyal when the loyal persons are uncoordinated and scattered throughout the day and/or not here.

Unfortunatly I have to agree, this match has much less activity as the other two matches I played. I hope, this will change as the game progresses.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I would even say, it propably is not possible to claim Princess without using the power. Otherwise, it would be a tad bit unfair. Claiming Princess has a cost attached, not being a valid target for the Baron or the Handmaiden.

From the rules, it sounds like you only power-claim Princess if you type the keywords in bold. The Princess could 'soft-claim' Princess, or anyone could fakeclaim Princess.
It also seems implies that anyone could type the keyword in bold to fakeclaim Princess, but of course such would be found out once it becomes clear we're not just waiting on Cao to confirm.

@Cao: could you confirm if the above is correct? Also, if someone fakeclaims Princess via typing the keywords in bold, would you officially state they are not the Princess, or would you purposefully not respond?

Once per game, you may publicly declare yourself Princess (by bolding words to the effect of Claim: Princess). The Narrator will confirm your role. Going forward, your vote count at the end of each Day will be set to 0, regardless of how many people voted you. After revealing yourself, the only Night action that can target you is the Mafia kill.

Jeen's assessment is correct. Anyone is free to say "I'm the Princess!". If it's not in bold, I will not pay attention to it and it's up to player speculation. This could lead to any number of players claiming to be Princess without any GM verification, just like people claiming Innocent Child in another game.

If the actual Princess says the words "I'm the Princess" but does not bold it, votes will still count against her up until she makes the claim in bolded text.

If someone bolds a claim saying they are the Princess, I will confirm or deny the next time I'm online.


Examples:

As far as I am concerned, everyone is the Princess, including me.

This is not bolded and so I can neither confirm nor deny whether Mr. Popo is the Princess.

You're all princesses!

Yes, we're all princesses!

The bolded part is not a player claiming they are the Princess, so I cannot confirm or deny.

I have to admit, the rules don't strictly support my idea. But I stand by the point: Being able to claim Princess (without the mechanical benefit of being unvotable, but come on... who would vote for an uncontested Princess claim, unless the person was very suspicious before and it seems like an last second try to get a second chance) without taking the drawback feels like cheating to me.
Of course, there is a blurry line somewhere. What counts as a soft-claiming, what is hard claiming? But in my mind, someone stating 'I am the Princess' without using bold should still count as using the ability.
But this is my personal opinion. I would be glad about a clarification from Cao.
I'm sorry if I said something contradicting the actual rules.

Rules as written are what I stated above and what I'm going with. Princess is a very powerful role by design - if someone soft claims Princess then they are not confirmed by me and can still be voted or counterclaimed per normal.

As for whether soft claiming is a good strategy or there are ways around it, I won't comment.

[JeenLeen]

I hadn't noticed the key phrase "to the effect of" claiming the Princess in the role power. So it's just the idea and the bolded text that matters, not the exact syntax, colon-use, or word order. Good to realize.

Also nice to know I can easily confirm I'm not the princess, if for some reason I'd like to.

[Batcathat]

Also nice to know I can easily confirm I'm not the princess, if for some reason I'd like to.

Heh, that would be a pretty funny use of the mechanic. I wonder if there's a situation where it would make sense to do so?

[gac3]

Oh man. I forgot this game started. I need to catch up.

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Okay... So Mr. Popo claimed? But then said "don't give hints as to who the princess is not... I might be the princess. Does that mean they didn't claim?

This is not a "this seems Wolfy" post as much as "is this what happened" post.