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Thread: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-20, 01:15 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
For the record, Supagoof, none of the reasons I'm voting for you have anything to do with BCH. I'm voting for you because I think you might have slipped, and I don't have any compelling reasons to townread you, and I don't have any strong opinions on which order my POE should die in so I'm sheeping AV.
(Sidenote: imagine Scar-pushing-Mufasa-off-a-cliff image here, because I made you king and now I'm killing you.
Long live the king!)
(Side-side-note: I really need a good song idea.)
Anyway. Barring any last-minute revelations, see you all later, hopefully in postgame!I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-20, 02:20 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2006
- Location
- Da Goof (x3)..Is On Fire!
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
If my death gives you something more concrete to move forward upon, then I'll consider that a win.
I also thought AV was a priest night 2, so yeah - there's that. I'm not going to ask if that's the case (keep the scum guessing).
I trust that Popo's trap is set, and marching forward only lynching those not on the safe list leads to the win.
And I'll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself at this point, because they can only feed into the wolf hands for a victory.
@^ - would love to see another of your parodies Snow.Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-20 at 02:21 PM. Reason: Snowblaze did a post, and I want to see a parody.
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2021-09-20, 04:16 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2006
- Location
- Da Goof (x3)..Is On Fire!
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Don't lose sight town.
Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-20 at 05:05 PM. Reason: Funny thoughts, like how I get bussed for always defending myself, yet while I'm away for a time I announced, I get thrown under the bus. That, and spelling typo.
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2021-09-20, 06:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Location
- Aiur, low orbit
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Supagoof today, Batcathat tomorrow is the current result of deliberation.
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2021-09-20, 10:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Vote Count:
Supagoof (5): BatCatHat AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, gac3, Libro
BatCatHat (1): Supagoof
No Vote (1): Rogan
Little dissent is brought up through your talk
Officials arrive at time for arrest,
The accused saw it coming, there's no shock
The group all points at the one you have guessed,
More subdued was removal of ally,
From person to person through this whole thing,
No info to help or reason for why,
Finally brought out was the distraught King
The knight mistakenly called Sugapoof,
Rode steady on stead, click clacking the hoof,
Was dragged off screaming by seekers of truth
"You want the Goof? YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE GOOF!"
First mistake in a while to even score,
You'll try tomorrow. Now, begin Night 4.
Supagoof and King Arnaud IV, Town, were arrested.
Night 4 Ends Tuesday, Sept. 21 at 11:30 PM EST /
Wednesday, Sept. 22 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
Wednesday, Sept. 22 at 5:30 AM CEST
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2021-09-20, 10:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
*checks profile*
Rogan hasn't been online since his last argument post with Popo.
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2021-09-21, 01:06 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
*sigh*
Batcathat/Rogan, final answer, I guess. I’ll work out which one should die first (or try to!) tomorrow if I’m still alive.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-21, 01:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
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2021-09-21, 02:20 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
*shrug* I have decent reasons to townread gac3 (Mr Popo trusted them, they've used their power in a very pro-town way, it doesn't make sense for Emmy to self-target for a role wolves already had).
Plus, mislynching gac3 is wolf!you's only plausible route to victory atp.
Also I just remembered an unpairing I had: Rogan/gac3 not w/w which means we need to kill you tomorrow. I'd kill Rogan over gac if it lasts to F3, but hopefully I'll have got myself poisoned by then.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-21, 03:03 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Fair enough. It's not exactly water-tight but I suppose it's not any worse than my town read on Rogan.
What was that based on? I'm sure you might've said it at some point, but it feels like I have enough posts to go over without reading yours as well. (Next game I'm definitely creating a spreadsheet, my memory is clearly not up for this).Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-21 at 03:04 AM.
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2021-09-21, 03:08 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Early day two interactions iirc, gac3 was pretty keen on trying to kill Rogan then.
- - - Updated - - -
The quotes in question. Also that Rogan post is pretty wolfy, as a note. Maybe we should kill him tomorrow... but that loses if the team is BCH/gac3. I need to go reread, see how likely that is.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-21, 03:26 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Every time somebody says "it can't be gac", there's either no case made, or the case looks about as solid as the above.
"gac really wanted rogan dead, that's why they're unpaired"
Meanwhile what actually happened is
"maybe we should do the thing bladescape said we should consider"
gac's statement is stronger than bladescape's statement, but this isn't exactly a smoking gun for unpairing them. Like...here's another Rogan d2 post:
If gac/Rogan are declared "not w/w" for gac's post, then surely Rogan and Xi are unpaired for this. It's a hell of a lot stronger, and this was a full day before Xi was even a serious wagon.
(Note: I'm mostly being facetious - I think this post does more to show how much Rogan's opinion seemed to change once Xi became a real wagon, I'm just saying that it's a much stronger accusation Rogan makes against Xi than gac made against Rogan, which is apparently enough to unpair them. I feel the same way about gac/rogan unpairing based on that, as I do about Popo unpairing people based on their D1 randvotes. There's a whole lot less substance than you're giving them credit for.)
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2021-09-21, 04:48 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
Re: Love Letter Mafia
I actually think the Rogan quote is more unpairing than the gac quote - if they're partners it must have been agreed "I'll start by voting you for distancing purposes" which means Rogan wouldn't be immediately salty about being accused.
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-21, 05:00 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
That wouldn't be hard to fake either, tho?
Eh. I'm gonna get some rest, and then I'm probably gonna do full ISOs for Batcathat, gac3, Rogan, and Snowblaze and see which of them seem like they could be paired with each other or not. Even if I'm dead, I wanna be able to help if it turns out tomorrow is LYLO.
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2021-09-21, 05:00 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
To be fair, a reaction like that isn't exactly impossible to fake. In fact, I think my (public) reaction to blade bussing me last game was something fairly similar.
I'm mostly acting devil's advocate here. I do think Rogan's probably town, but not because of that quote.
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2021-09-21, 09:13 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Could everybody please target themselves tonight? Please and thank you!
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2021-09-21, 09:39 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Sure, it's not like I've gotten much use out of it anyway.
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2021-09-21, 02:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Sleep continues to elude me, so I'm just gonna do the dumb big ISO and then pass out. I'll probably be missing for the start of D5, even if I'm not dead.
EDIT: Oh, and if I am dead, gac prevented me from being baned and should be lynched immediately.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-21 at 04:54 PM.
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2021-09-21, 02:33 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2021-09-21, 04:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
In this ISO, I'm mostly looking at the stuff from our four possible suspects who could actually be paired with each other (as well as Xihirli, to see if they're paired/unpaired with her). It's possible we only have one wolf left, but if we have 2...well, D5 is final 5, which makes it LYLO. Best not to leave things to chance. Also, this isn't every post from them because...no. Too many, too big.
Spoiler: Pairing/Unpairing Multi-ISOworth noting here is that BCH and Snow are voting each other as their initial votes. How much that matters depends on if you think Popo is onto something - if you think he's on the money, then this is unpairing. If not...then it's NAI.
It's hard to not read this as BCH/Xi pairing, given how Xi flipped. I see Xi doing stuff like BCH is talking about when she's playing scum, but just as often she's perfectly happy to screw town over for the fun of it as she is to help them for the fun of it.
Based on Rogan's reaction to the plan, potential pairing with Snow?
Xi is in the pile of "wont vote em", so potential Rogan/Xi pairing? It's kinda weak, and popo did this too a bit, but still.
Additionally, this is unpairing evidence between Rogan and Snowblaze. That is to say, if we target Rogan and he flips scum, this is evidence to suggest Snow isn't scum. Because why would scum make a list of "four people I won't vote today", and put three out of four scum in it? Of course, if it said Emmy instead of Popo, this would be different, but still.
...did we read the same post???
The idea is not bad, but it also brings some risks. You pointed some of them out (and I would be interested in your math for the Handmaidens, but this can wait until after the game) and gave your assessment about them. So, I will claim that I have no role involved and no major objections to your analysis. Minor negative points for the "Trust me" part of your argument. But it's propably too obvious for a wolf. I reserve the right to reasses my stance toward you if the princess or countesse gets ambushed tonight.
"I'd like to hear your Handmaid math [because if it's accurate, that lends some credence to your idea]"
"I have no role involved [so you can trust that my opinion isn't biased at all, and also I just made it easier for scum to find princess]"
"Minor negative points for the TRUST ME part, but it's probably too obvious for a wolf"
The reason I said that Rogan's post was potential evidence for a pairing is that, if either of your flips, then Rogan's post honestly looks like a scum putting up the most basic token resistance to their scumbuddies plan to get townies to out themselves D1. If this were pocketing, Rogan would be going more all-in on supporting the plan, I think - this is more like if y'all were scumbuddies and he wanted to support the plan without looking like he supports the plan, just in case you get lynched for it and they go looking for scumbuddies, he can say "I had my reservations, you can't lynch me off that!"
I'm inclined to read this as slight evidence for Rogan/Snow pairing. Scum can't do private comms during the day, so this could be Rogan's way of saying "I dont think this is a good plan, so I hope you're ready for in case things go south and you wind up on the chopping block"
More tacit approval for the plan.
More tacit approval for the plan, unless "we get incredibly lucky, or Snowblaze or Popo is a traitor". I'm not sure this is really pairing evidence, but like...if the dead wolves were Rogan/Snowblaze, a lot of the D1 stuff would make more sense, particularly this part. Like:
"Oh come on, the plan is perfectly fine...unless it was proposed by a traitor~ "
But like...I don't necessarily think that's what happened. That's me forcing a scumread of this particular post. The others expressing vague support for the plan, I'm still feeling kinda iffy on, though.
Alright, so reasons not to vote people are given. Rogan is self-explanatory, Mr Popo is understandable. I don't like the reason for the Xi lean, especially given the reveal, but Popo did that too and he flipped town so...yeah. The snow explanation, well it's at least consistent; other posts do a lot more to pair them than this very vague support for the plan in a single line. But the BCH reason is just "I like the posts". That's not an explanation.
I'm not inclined to think a Rogan/BCH pairing is likely because of the lack of surrender, but if I were to entertain such a concept, this is what I'd consider as potential evidence of it.
I don't think scum!Rogan would propose this possibility - he's too new, the thought process would be like "I don't wanna talk as if I'm considering what's in the unused, that might make them think I know what's in the unused", whereas town!Rogan would be considering the weird possibilities without regard for how they might look (even if they only "might look" that way from the POV of a less-experienced wolf).
As a counterpoint to my earlier "would a wolf include multiple scumbuddies in their I WONT VOTE THEM list", not only do we have proof that both Xi and Emmy were in one such list, but as a matter of fact, this particular list contains every currently-living player except for me and gac. So it almost certainly contains at least three scum players, or four if Rogan is scum too. Idk I just think it's amusing to think that if Rogan is scum, this list right here might well have every scum in the game in it. That feels like a thing scum would never do, they'd just immediately find a reason not to mention at least one scumbuddy on principle.
Personal paranoia: I see a list of three names and immediately think "if the person who made the list is scum, there's a single scum in that list, no more, no less". But that would make this a Snow/gac pairing which...we might be screwed lol no way we check them before Bat.
Person leading the lynch on Jeen is already kinda tiptoeing away from it. NAGL
I'm just gonna ignore the headache that is trying to figure out why Xihirli was trying to make Emmy an alternate D1 lynch, and just look at the vote here. I'm not saying this is pairing, I just wanna be clear that it's not unpairing either - with how little time remained in D1 at this point, there was no way this wagon was happening, and Xi knew it. Easy way to vote a scumbuddy when you don't know how the game will shape up.
This is potential evidence for pairing: "I've looked at half the people in the game and here are my three town leads: dead townie, uncounterclaimed Countess, and Xihirli". It's even presented as a nice list of three to trigger my scumdar, and oh hey, a single one of them is confirmed scum and the others couldn't possibly be scum! I called this out for a buncha reasons at the time, as well.
Considering the general consensus about D2 is that scum knew Emmy's goose was cooked once Popo and I started talking about it in the night, this could easily be a distancing post that isn't actually risking starting a Rogan wagon, since Emmy is 110% dying D2 anyway.
Even at the time, this kinda felt like the kinda subtle comment scum might make. "I think there's exactly one scum between these two [and I think that because I'm scumbuddies with one of them, hehehe]"
I'm curious to hear what unpairing case Snowblaze has for these two, especially since I'm pretty sure sometime D4/N4 she argued with me that a Rogan/BCH pairing might be plausible.
Here's a fun post: "BCH is innocent, Rogan and gac are unpaired."
There are six possible pairings in my mind right now. Here's the possibilities, and the ones Snowblaze crossed off early D2:
BCH/gac3
BCH/Rogan
BCH/Snowblaze
gac3/Rogan
gac3/Snowblaze
Rogan/Snowblaze
A bit more seriously...wtf, you're townreading BCH off their ISO? I ISO'd them too at that point, it's not anywhere near that substantial. It's wishy-washy and kinda short - certainly far shorter than it was once they were constantly on the chopping block. I guess self-preservation kicked in real quick.
This is evidence for a BCH/Snowblaze pairing, as well as a good argument for lynching Snowblaze D5 since every possible viable pairing includes her.
This still feels kinda like an overreaction considering she's not even getting voted. I don't think it's pairing/unpairing evidence, but it might be scum evidence.
I don't like how BCH, Xihirli, and D2!AV are in the same category as Libro. I don't like her avoiding the Emmy lynch, especially right after she said "that's probably the right answer". As far as what this says about today, one would think from reading this post that D5!Snow would lean towards a gac/BCH team, given the argument that's come to light against BCH.
I'm not sure what to think that both gac3 and Snowblaze weren't really up to ISOing Rogan on D2. IDK how to tell y'all this, but we're going into D5 and the ISO's only gotten bigger and it might be LYLO so just giving up cuz it's hard would be very much not appreciated.
ISO'd gac, and still can't form an opinion. Feels more like evidence against BCH specifically rather than evidence in favor of a BCH/gac pair.
Is against the Emmy vote, although it's at least for a consistent reason (he already mentioned his "no info gained" issue with lynching inactives, which is still true even if they're scum). Still not great. Additionally, Xihirli shouldn't be that high, and I have no idea why anybody was doing anything other than nullreading/slight scumreading Xihirli for coasting through things.
I don't think this post really provides any real evidence for pairing/unpairing with the other three. It feels consistent with his existing thoughts, and doesn't really seem to be protecting/distancing with anybody.
My eyelids are rebelling against me. I'm gonna go sleep, for real this time. I'll continue this ISO when I wake up, assuming I'm still alive. My general thoughts right now:
I'm currently leaning:
Libro
Snowblaze
gac3
Rogan
Batcathat
Here are the six possible pairings, in order from least ridiculous to most (in my mind):
BCH/gac3
BCH/Snowblaze
Rogan/Snowblaze
gac3/Rogan
BCH/Rogan
gac3/Snowblaze
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2021-09-21, 10:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Love Letter Mafia
This thing can't go much longer, do you think?
Under pressure you've lived these past few Days.
Looking for Queen's subjects, down halls they slink
Deeds done each night, to avoid other's gaze
Once more to your rooms to solve this hard case,
You've done well so far but each Day you waste,
Another poisoning, for it you brace,
When morning comes, you check the rooms with haste
The group reaches the victim's room, "Oh no!"
The palace hurries, its daily distress
Brought out, unconscious, this morn is Libro
Taken with him is trustworthy Countess
The crowd has got thinner, for truth you strive,
Get back to your searching, begin Day 5.
Libro and Countess Wilhelmina, Town, were poisoned.
Day 5 Ends Thursday, Sept. 23 at 11:30 PM EST /
Friday, Sept. 24 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
Friday, Sept. 24 at 5:30 AM CESTLast edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-09-21 at 10:32 PM.
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2021-09-21, 11:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Well. I will be honest. That surprises me.
Anyway. BCH.
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2021-09-21, 11:35 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Me too, when AV started hinted at a plan I was almost sure they'd die. Anyway, I targeted myself as requested (sad to say, it turns out I'm NOT the Princesss) hopefully that can help clear things up.
Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-21 at 11:39 PM.
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2021-09-21, 11:42 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-21, 11:45 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2019
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Ah, I was hoping I no one would see that but only because it made me look silly. I managed to miss the "Libro dying" part of Cao's post and thought that the wolves had skipped their night kill, either being scared of your plan or (if it's Rogan) by being inactive.
- - - Updated - - -
I should really stop checking this thread like five minutes after waking up. I'm not exactly at my smartest or most perceptive.
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2021-09-21, 11:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Honestly I probably read you as slightly townier for it. Like...if you were scum, you know full well that somebody died in the night. And your first post of the day is...blaming rogan for the lack of a kill? That's terrible self-defense, everybody can see Libro died, nobody will avoid voting you based on that argument! Scum probably wouldn't make that argument.
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2021-09-21, 11:51 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2019
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2021-09-21, 11:53 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
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2021-09-22, 01:02 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Love Letter Mafia
...okay then.
Batcathat for now. Busy IRL this morning but will carry on with my work on day three this afternoon.
Also I can confirm that I’m a Guard, having tested my claim last night.
- - - Updated - - -
Though actually... if the game’s still going after a Batcathat flip, and Rogan is town, we could be screwed. Rogan autolynched, game over, we lose.
...of course I’m paranoid, this could be LyLo.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2021-09-22, 01:15 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Love Letter Mafia
Yeah. We really need to treat today like it could be LYLO. Even if it turns out there's only one scum left, there might well be two, and then a mislynch is game over. If there's only one scum left, and Rogan autolynches town...
Let's assume we mislynch a townie, then some townie dies in the night, then Rogan autolynches and flips town. That's two people left - one scum and one town. Current players are three guards and two non-guards (me and gac), and I'm fairly certain gac is town. There's two non-Rogan deaths in those three deaths, the lynch and the NK. So as long as we don't lynch AV or gac today, Rogan autolynching shouldn't ruin town's win? Assuming there's only one scum, anyway. Which we shouldn't assume.
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