A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #571
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    For the record, Supagoof, none of the reasons I'm voting for you have anything to do with BCH. I'm voting for you because I think you might have slipped, and I don't have any compelling reasons to townread you, and I don't have any strong opinions on which order my POE should die in so I'm sheeping AV.

    (Sidenote: imagine Scar-pushing-Mufasa-off-a-cliff image here, because I made you king and now I'm killing you.

    Long live the king!)

    (Side-side-note: I really need a good song idea.)

    Anyway. Barring any last-minute revelations, see you all later, hopefully in postgame!
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I知 doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  2. - Top - End - #572
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    If my death gives you something more concrete to move forward upon, then I'll consider that a win.

    I also thought AV was a priest night 2, so yeah - there's that. I'm not going to ask if that's the case (keep the scum guessing).

    I trust that Popo's trap is set, and marching forward only lynching those not on the safe list leads to the win.

    And I'll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself at this point, because they can only feed into the wolf hands for a victory.

    @^ - would love to see another of your parodies Snow.
    Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-20 at 02:21 PM. Reason: Snowblaze did a post, and I want to see a parody.
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    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  3. - Top - End - #573
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-20 at 05:05 PM. Reason: Funny thoughts, like how I get bussed for always defending myself, yet while I'm away for a time I announced, I get thrown under the bus. That, and spelling typo.
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    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  4. - Top - End - #574
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    BlackDragon

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Supagoof today, Batcathat tomorrow is the current result of deliberation.
    "Ye are who ye are on all o' yer days. All o' em. Includin' that worst an' tha best. Ev'ry single one counts. All tha way ta tha end."

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  5. - Top - End - #575
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Vote Count:

    Supagoof (5): BatCatHat AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, gac3, Libro
    BatCatHat (1): Supagoof
    No Vote (1): Rogan





    Little dissent is brought up through your talk
    Officials arrive at time for arrest,
    The accused saw it coming, there's no shock
    The group all points at the one you have guessed,

    More subdued was removal of ally,
    From person to person through this whole thing,
    No info to help or reason for why,
    Finally brought out was the distraught King

    The knight mistakenly called Sugapoof,
    Rode steady on stead, click clacking the hoof,
    Was dragged off screaming by seekers of truth
    "You want the Goof? YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE GOOF!"

    First mistake in a while to even score,
    You'll try tomorrow. Now, begin Night 4.


    Supagoof and King Arnaud IV, Town, were arrested.






    Night 4 Ends Tuesday, Sept. 21 at 11:30 PM EST /
    Wednesday, Sept. 22 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
    Wednesday, Sept. 22 at 5:30 AM CEST

  6. - Top - End - #576
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    *checks profile*

    Rogan hasn't been online since his last argument post with Popo.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  7. - Top - End - #577
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    *sigh*

    Batcathat/Rogan, final answer, I guess. I値l work out which one should die first (or try to!) tomorrow if I知 still alive.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I知 doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  8. - Top - End - #578
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    *sigh*

    Batcathat/Rogan, final answer, I guess. I値l work out which one should die first (or try to!) tomorrow if I知 still alive.
    Maybe I'm too trusting of Rogan, but I feel you might be letting gac off the hook too easily.

    After getting busy and lazy yesterday, I suppose I should get back to my plan of giving at least gac and Rogan another look (and maybe AV?).

  9. - Top - End - #579
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Maybe I'm too trusting of Rogan, but I feel you might be letting gac off the hook too easily.

    After getting busy and lazy yesterday, I suppose I should get back to my plan of giving at least gac and Rogan another look (and maybe AV?).
    *shrug* I have decent reasons to townread gac3 (Mr Popo trusted them, they've used their power in a very pro-town way, it doesn't make sense for Emmy to self-target for a role wolves already had).

    Plus, mislynching gac3 is wolf!you's only plausible route to victory atp.

    Also I just remembered an unpairing I had: Rogan/gac3 not w/w which means we need to kill you tomorrow. I'd kill Rogan over gac if it lasts to F3, but hopefully I'll have got myself poisoned by then.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I知 doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  10. - Top - End - #580
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    *shrug* I have decent reasons to townread gac3 (Mr Popo trusted them, they've used their power in a very pro-town way, it doesn't make sense for Emmy to self-target for a role wolves already had).
    Fair enough. It's not exactly water-tight but I suppose it's not any worse than my town read on Rogan.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Also I just remembered an unpairing I had: Rogan/gac3 not w/w which means we need to kill you tomorrow. I'd kill Rogan over gac if it lasts to F3, but hopefully I'll have got myself poisoned by then.
    What was that based on? I'm sure you might've said it at some point, but it feels like I have enough posts to go over without reading yours as well. (Next game I'm definitely creating a spreadsheet, my memory is clearly not up for this).
    Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-21 at 03:04 AM.

  11. - Top - End - #581
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Fair enough. It's not exactly water-tight but I suppose it's not any worse than my town read on Rogan.



    What was that based on? I'm sure you might've said it at some point, but it feels like I have enough posts to go over without reading yours as well. (Next game I'm definitely creating a spreadsheet, my memory is clearly not up for this).
    Early day two interactions iirc, gac3 was pretty keen on trying to kill Rogan then.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan to start because Blade said we should look into Rogan and then Blade died. The rest of my review of day one to come.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I'd appreciate if you would actually do a review on me instead of voting on me in grounds of "The person who wanted a review got attacked"

    But I am going to assume you plan to include that into your next post.
    The quotes in question. Also that Rogan post is pretty wolfy, as a note. Maybe we should kill him tomorrow... but that loses if the team is BCH/gac3. I need to go reread, see how likely that is.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I知 doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  12. - Top - End - #582
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Every time somebody says "it can't be gac", there's either no case made, or the case looks about as solid as the above.

    "gac really wanted rogan dead, that's why they're unpaired"

    Meanwhile what actually happened is

    "maybe we should do the thing bladescape said we should consider"

    gac's statement is stronger than bladescape's statement, but this isn't exactly a smoking gun for unpairing them. Like...here's another Rogan d2 post:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I promised to pay more attention to Xi, so here I am. The fluff is a nice little story about lying and getting caught. It could have some connection to the gamestate, somewhere deep down. But if there is such a meaning, I don't see who should play which role...
    The analysis is basically similar to my own thought processes, but only to the point where Xi implies exactly the opposite of my conclusion.

    For me, Emmy's behavior is clearly worse than Goof's. So far I've been unwilling to vote for her since she was going to die anyway. Goof's behavior, on the other hand, while not helpful to the village and quite suspicious in places, at least he gave some reasons. I can't verify those reasons, but I believe him when it comes to RL.

    So, why would Xi change her stance on Emmy? If Emmy is Wolf, Xi might have been willing to bus the inactive. Especially if Wolf!Emmy says the truh about her n1. An inactive living to see day 3 would be nearly 100% been an outed wolf. Lynching her afterwards would be a no brainer and make for a boring day.
    Lynching her today, while she did not talk? It could give some town cred for catching a wolf, it would sacrifice a wolf that was doomed to die anyway. It would be a good move for a wolf.

    If Emmy is a wolf, Xi is more likely to be a wolf as well. There is basically guaranteed to be at least one wolf on Emmy right now, especially if she is a wolf. Of course, this wolf doesn't need to be Xi, but it is a possibility.
    If gac/Rogan are declared "not w/w" for gac's post, then surely Rogan and Xi are unpaired for this. It's a hell of a lot stronger, and this was a full day before Xi was even a serious wagon.

    (Note: I'm mostly being facetious - I think this post does more to show how much Rogan's opinion seemed to change once Xi became a real wagon, I'm just saying that it's a much stronger accusation Rogan makes against Xi than gac made against Rogan, which is apparently enough to unpair them. I feel the same way about gac/rogan unpairing based on that, as I do about Popo unpairing people based on their D1 randvotes. There's a whole lot less substance than you're giving them credit for.)


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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  13. - Top - End - #583
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I actually think the Rogan quote is more unpairing than the gac quote - if they're partners it must have been agreed "I'll start by voting you for distancing purposes" which means Rogan wouldn't be immediately salty about being accused.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I知 doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  14. - Top - End - #584
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I actually think the Rogan quote is more unpairing than the gac quote - if they're partners it must have been agreed "I'll start by voting you for distancing purposes" which means Rogan wouldn't be immediately salty about being accused.
    That wouldn't be hard to fake either, tho?

    Eh. I'm gonna get some rest, and then I'm probably gonna do full ISOs for Batcathat, gac3, Rogan, and Snowblaze and see which of them seem like they could be paired with each other or not. Even if I'm dead, I wanna be able to help if it turns out tomorrow is LYLO.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  15. - Top - End - #585
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I actually think the Rogan quote is more unpairing than the gac quote - if they're partners it must have been agreed "I'll start by voting you for distancing purposes" which means Rogan wouldn't be immediately salty about being accused.
    To be fair, a reaction like that isn't exactly impossible to fake. In fact, I think my (public) reaction to blade bussing me last game was something fairly similar.

    I'm mostly acting devil's advocate here. I do think Rogan's probably town, but not because of that quote.

  16. - Top - End - #586
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Could everybody please target themselves tonight? Please and thank you!


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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  17. - Top - End - #587
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Sure, it's not like I've gotten much use out of it anyway.

  18. - Top - End - #588
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Sleep continues to elude me, so I'm just gonna do the dumb big ISO and then pass out. I'll probably be missing for the start of D5, even if I'm not dead.

    EDIT: Oh, and if I am dead, gac prevented me from being baned and should be lynched immediately.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-21 at 04:54 PM.


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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  19. - Top - End - #589
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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Could everybody please target themselves tonight? Please and thank you!
    On it. Extra characters.

  20. - Top - End - #590
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    In this ISO, I'm mostly looking at the stuff from our four possible suspects who could actually be paired with each other (as well as Xihirli, to see if they're paired/unpaired with her). It's possible we only have one wolf left, but if we have 2...well, D5 is final 5, which makes it LYLO. Best not to leave things to chance. Also, this isn't every post from them because...no. Too many, too big.

    Spoiler: Pairing/Unpairing Multi-ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I'm about to do something very out of character: start a game with a mechanics wallpost. But I have a plan, and I think that plan will work.

    Step 1: The Countess claims their role publicly.

    Step 2: The Princess reveals themselves.

    Step 3: Tonight, all town Handmaidens should target the Countess. If the wolves try to kill the Princess the Countess should redirect the kill to themselves. Other town roles shouldn't target either. This should be repeated on future nights.

    "But what's so good about this plan?"

    It gives us two confirmed town who wolves can't nightkill in the short-term. That means town has people who can be trusted, and also means there are two less people who could be suspected.

    "But what if the Princess/Countess are unused roles?"

    That's why I asked for the Countess to claim first. If the Princess claims when the Countess isn't in the game, wolves can just kill them. But if the Countess claims and there's no Princess, we can still proceed with the plan, just with only the Countess protected.

    (The above means that the Princess shouldn't reveal until and unless we have a Countess claim.)

    "But what if wolves, knowing the Countess is an unused role, fakeclaim it?"

    If wolves want to trade being able to kill the Princess night one for one of them being outed as soon as the Prince(s) use their actions, then that's fine by me. A 1 for 1 trade is pro-town.

    "But what if there aren't any town Handmaidens on night one?"

    That is the largest problem with my plan. If that's the case, the Countess dies night one and the Princess night two. But I did the maths (assuming three wolves, two unused roles, and roles allocated randomly with no respect for alignment) and there's a 1/12 chance that will happen. That's a risk I'm prepared to take.

    釘ut what if you池e a wolf and know there are no town Handmaidens?

    I知 not. Honestly. Trust me.

    "But the Baron can't set up QTs with our confirmed town."

    True. But the setup is designed so that most of the discussion will be taking place in public anyway, so the disadvantage is relatively minor compared to what town gains from the plan.



    So. If you think the plan shouldn't go ahead, please say so (and explain why) asap. Otherwise, the Countess can claim whenever they're ready. (I'm implying pretty strongly that I'm not currently the Countess, so I may as well just say it outright. I'm not the Countess. Please don't speculate about my role in thread.)

    And, you know, remember we need to hunt wolves as well. I'm going to try not to spend too much time debating the merits of this plan now I've made my case.

    In other news, my schedule is extremely unpredictable after the next three hours. Knowing me I値l still be posting too much, though! I知 also probably going to end up writing some RP at some point.

    And in other other news, Batcathat - partly OMGUS, partly so we have wagons.
    worth noting here is that BCH and Snow are voting each other as their initial votes. How much that matters depends on if you think Popo is onto something - if you think he's on the money, then this is unpairing. If not...then it's NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    This makes me lean slightly towards Xi being Town. When we were wolves together last game, she pushed a lot for moves that'd make an interesting challenge rather than playing it safe, so protesting a plan for being unsporting in favor of Town seems more towny than wolfy coming from Xi. Of course, she might be counting on someone pointing that out, so who knows for sure?
    It's hard to not read this as BCH/Xi pairing, given how Xi flipped. I see Xi doing stuff like BCH is talking about when she's playing scum, but just as often she's perfectly happy to screw town over for the fun of it as she is to help them for the fun of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
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    Be careful what you say there! I might think you are a gambler, even willing to gamble with lives at stake! This certainly is no honorable behaviour. And when there is no honor, there might be no loyality as well.



    The idea is not bad, but it also brings some risks. You pointed some of them out (and I would be interested in your math for the Handmaidens, but this can wait until after the game) and gave your assessment about them. So, I will claim that I have no role involved and no major objections to your analysis. Minor negative points for the "Trust me" part of your argument. But it's propably too obvious for a wolf. I reserve the right to reasses my stance toward you if the princess or countesse gets ambushed tonight.



    Hard disagree here. Massclaiming would be a huge disadvantage! Since the Handmaidens are occupied protecting the Princess and Countesse, a mass claim would allow the wolves to snipe the more useful roles. Like the Handmaidens, which we need for the plan to work.
    (And, in my interpretation of the game the countesse is still female, its just someone you are allied with. Notice the OP, where two persons were arrested, the evil queen and our dear narrator. (A big thank you for your work!))



    Again, mixed feelings, Snow. On the one hand, you are opposed to a mass claim. On the other hand... I don't like this!
    But I like Snows songs as well, so another reason to avoid going after her.



    I think you are correct about the first part (King, Prince).
    You are however wrong about the second part (Baron). Snow even pointed this out in her plan. The baron can't connect anybody to this core. The princess can't be targeted after claiming. The Countess will be blocked by the handmaidens. They protect against the kill, but also prevent most other powers.
    If the wolves get the countess night 1, will you change your oppinion about Snow?



    Hard agree here. Xi is on my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game.



    Dear Prince Roland
    I bring you terrible news! The Queen has tried to assassinate the Princess. But - praise the gods - the Princess was not hurt and the Queen was arrested. She is avaiting trial in the royal dungon. However, the danger is not over yet. She still has some allies hidden in the castle. Currently, we are locked in here. I hope, at least my letter will reach you, so you can learn of the events from a trusted source.
    The Princess has gone into hiding, however there is wisper she might reveal herself soon and place herself under the protection of the Countess and her trusted Handmaidens. One of the other guests of the palace, Mr Popo, claims to be the Count. Nobody objected to this till now, and I tend to believe him. Such a lie would be too easy to proove wrong.
    Personaly, I suspect AvatarVecna but I have to admit, I never liked her very much. Some time ago, I even dreamed of killing her with lightning, but she was innocent that night. Strange dream, realy, but I disgress. Pardon, Mylord.
    I also don't like this stranger named BookWombat. A gambler, for sure. Maybe I can use my contacts at the servants to gain some more inforamtion about him tonight.

    Yours truely,
    Ambassador Rogan
    Based on Rogan's reaction to the plan, potential pairing with Snow?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Your math is fine, which I realized some minutes after I made the post. At first, I had tried to take all roles into account, which made the calculation a bit more complex. Sometimes, you miss the forest since you see so many trees.

    Well, it's not RNG random. AV

    - is allways a good day 1 target
    - had one vote already

    Currently, there are 4 players I would not vote for.
    [Rogan, Snow, Mr Popo, Xi]
    And I didn't want to start a new wagon without a good reason. (Which I currently don't have). So I picked someone with one vote, who I would not mind getting eliminated. And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 ammuses me
    Xi is in the pile of "wont vote em", so potential Rogan/Xi pairing? It's kinda weak, and popo did this too a bit, but still.

    Additionally, this is unpairing evidence between Rogan and Snowblaze. That is to say, if we target Rogan and he flips scum, this is evidence to suggest Snow isn't scum. Because why would scum make a list of "four people I won't vote today", and put three out of four scum in it? Of course, if it said Emmy instead of Popo, this would be different, but still.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    It's more a general thing, wrt the Rogan post. My gut thinks their treatment of me could be wolfy but I tend to second-guess my early reads a lot.

    Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.

    I wouldn't say I can "break the game open" with my plan; I just think it's beneficial to town at (relatively) little risk.
    ...did we read the same post???

    The idea is not bad, but it also brings some risks. You pointed some of them out (and I would be interested in your math for the Handmaidens, but this can wait until after the game) and gave your assessment about them. So, I will claim that I have no role involved and no major objections to your analysis. Minor negative points for the "Trust me" part of your argument. But it's propably too obvious for a wolf. I reserve the right to reasses my stance toward you if the princess or countesse gets ambushed tonight.
    "The idea is not bad"

    "I'd like to hear your Handmaid math [because if it's accurate, that lends some credence to your idea]"

    "I have no role involved [so you can trust that my opinion isn't biased at all, and also I just made it easier for scum to find princess]"

    "Minor negative points for the TRUST ME part, but it's probably too obvious for a wolf"

    The reason I said that Rogan's post was potential evidence for a pairing is that, if either of your flips, then Rogan's post honestly looks like a scum putting up the most basic token resistance to their scumbuddies plan to get townies to out themselves D1. If this were pocketing, Rogan would be going more all-in on supporting the plan, I think - this is more like if y'all were scumbuddies and he wanted to support the plan without looking like he supports the plan, just in case you get lynched for it and they go looking for scumbuddies, he can say "I had my reservations, you can't lynch me off that!"

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I am slightly paranoid regarding you since I remember your performance in PJ. You are increadibly good at avoiding the lynch, even if you deserve it. And in our second game together, you managed to survive a day where you were known to be the serial killer. (To be fair, your contender for the lynch was a baddy as well, so this should not count).

    So I could see a world where you are a wolf, suggest a plan you know will fail, telegraph this possibilty AND get away with it. Those are things I propably won't have to worry about, I know. But I still have them in my mind and you might remember something about me: I still have to learn when to shut up!

    All in all, I think you are more likely to be town than wolf. But I respect your skills enough to think you could fake this. And I would like to know if I am the only one who thinks that way.
    I'm inclined to read this as slight evidence for Rogan/Snow pairing. Scum can't do private comms during the day, so this could be Rogan's way of saying "I dont think this is a good plan, so I hope you're ready for in case things go south and you wind up on the chopping block"

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Snow had this in mind.
    The roles are not out of the game forever, so sooner or later, the bluff will be called and the wolves loose one teammember.
    More tacit approval for the plan.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Okay, now I have to ask... You push for an AV lynch quite hard for... No good reason at all? Or do you know something we don't?
    I mean, when I voted AV, you did not like my reasons. And I absolutely admit, my reasons are not terribly good. But I don't think you gave ANY reason at all. Well, except the name, but that's a very very weak reason.

    If you didn't claim to be married to our beloved Countess, I would vote for you now.
    You started wanting a mass claim, quickly changed your mind on this and now work against Snows Plan.
    This plan is basically forced to happen now. We can not afford to loose the Countess, otherwise the Princess can not Claim or she is basically guaranteed to die the next night. With the Countess in the open, the Princess has nothing to loose by claiming, unless she believes the plan will fail. But for the Plan to fail, we would need to be either increadible unlucky, or there is a traitor ammong Snow and you, Mr. Popo.
    More tacit approval for the plan, unless "we get incredibly lucky, or Snowblaze or Popo is a traitor". I'm not sure this is really pairing evidence, but like...if the dead wolves were Rogan/Snowblaze, a lot of the D1 stuff would make more sense, particularly this part. Like:

    "Oh come on, the plan is perfectly fine...unless it was proposed by a traitor~ "

    But like...I don't necessarily think that's what happened. That's me forcing a scumread of this particular post. The others expressing vague support for the plan, I'm still feeling kinda iffy on, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Now, to make sure we are on the same page: Are those 6 people you are never going to vote for locked? Or is this only valid for today? Since I think day 1 is a bit early to lock people as town, unless they do something realy spectacular.

    From my side:
    Mr Popo - you are save unless you get counterclaimed.
    Snowblaze - you are save unless your plan results in a spectacular backfire.
    Xi - You are save as long as you write nice letters and there is no realy good reason to vote you.
    Rogan - I don't see my death as an advantage for town. After all, I can prommise you one thing: I won't kill a seer this game!
    BatCatHat - I like those posts for now. Plus, beeing in a similar TimeZone, so we might spend some time being active together.

    I don't have a strong scum read on anybody (well, I don't like some parts of Mr. Popo, but Count claim...). I think, AV is uncharacteristically silent, so I will stay sitting here with my vote. But honestly? If she realy is a traitor, I will feel lucky, not skilled.


    Otherwise, Mr. Popo:
    I think we can agree her. We will both do what we think is best for the Princess. May she live a long and happy live!

    I'm looking forward to hear from blades. But since I think, he is currently voting for you, I wonder if I have to take his words with a grain of salt.




    BatCatHat: Supagoof,
    Mr Popo: Bladescape,
    Supagoof: gac3,
    Libro: AvatarVecna, Xihiril,
    Rogan: Book Wombat,
    BatCatHat: Snowblaze,
    AvatarVecna: Rogan, Mr Popo,
    Snowblaze: JeenLeen,
    JeenLeen: BatCatHat,

    I think, this is the current vote count. But feel free to double check, it can be easy to miss something. Especially if someone voted after I started to write this post...
    Alright, so reasons not to vote people are given. Rogan is self-explanatory, Mr Popo is understandable. I don't like the reason for the Xi lean, especially given the reveal, but Popo did that too and he flipped town so...yeah. The snow explanation, well it's at least consistent; other posts do a lot more to pair them than this very vague support for the plan in a single line. But the BCH reason is just "I like the posts". That's not an explanation.

    I'm not inclined to think a Rogan/BCH pairing is likely because of the lack of surrender, but if I were to entertain such a concept, this is what I'd consider as potential evidence of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Mr Popos post crossed mine. I think it's legit. I still want proof.

    This might not be the best move from a mechanical standpoint. But I think I have made my stance clear regarding the princess and soft claims.

    There is also another (small) danger. If there is no town Prince and the Princess is not in the game yet, soft claiming Princesss could go unnoticed.
    There are ways to check this, plus it's very unlikely. But I like to be paranoid about strange edge cases...

    (Currently writing from mobile, so please be patient... it might take longer than I like)
    I don't think scum!Rogan would propose this possibility - he's too new, the thought process would be like "I don't wanna talk as if I'm considering what's in the unused, that might make them think I know what's in the unused", whereas town!Rogan would be considering the weird possibilities without regard for how they might look (even if they only "might look" that way from the POV of a less-experienced wolf).

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    One of my problems with Mr Popo are absolute statements like that. But it might be a difference in play style.

    I don't know what I should make of him and if anything he does or suggests is really something he thinks best for town, a ruse to hide his true intentions and lure the traitors into a false sense of security, or a wolf playing too much like a wolf in order to deceive everybody.
    I think he is willing to take a risk, no matter the alignment.

    And now I am sitting here, wondering if I should trust my gut, trust some more experienced players (hoping they are not all allies) or do something different altogether.

    I think in some ways, Mr Popo is similar to AV. Both very fond of the manipulation part of the game. I tend to go against AV for the same reasons. I should leave my tunnel and read everything again, trying not to let my prejudice cloud my views.

    Unwilling to vote today:
    Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BatCatHat, Emmy, Rouge.
    AV (it would still be funny, but that's not sufficient reason for a vote anymore)

    Mr Popo is in a weird spot. On the one hand, many things would make sense as a Town player, on the other hand, just as many things rubb me the wrong way.

    I think there are arguments for a vote for Mr Popo, gac, book and Jeen.

    I am going to cross out my votes and check again which of those targets will, in my opinion, yield the best results.
    As a counterpoint to my earlier "would a wolf include multiple scumbuddies in their I WONT VOTE THEM list", not only do we have proof that both Xi and Emmy were in one such list, but as a matter of fact, this particular list contains every currently-living player except for me and gac. So it almost certainly contains at least three scum players, or four if Rogan is scum too. Idk I just think it's amusing to think that if Rogan is scum, this list right here might well have every scum in the game in it. That feels like a thing scum would never do, they'd just immediately find a reason not to mention at least one scumbuddy on principle.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    A few notes:

    I don稚 necessarily agree with every aspect of Mr Popo痴 cases, but I agree with his conclusions; I independently think Jeen/gac3/BW have all been wolfy to some extent.

    I知 not as confident on the townreads of bladescape or Xihirli as he is, I think both could fake their posts so far as wolves. Plus they池e both always wolves, going by recent statistics.

    And it痴 Batcathat, not Batthecat. Speaking of whom, if you want an alternate wagon, why not start one yourself? (Just... ignore the unholy mess that is the grammar of that sentence.)

    Yeah. It痴 probably not this easy - a rule I made for myself a while back was 妬f you think you致e solved the game on day one, you池e wrong. But I also think it痴 too early to be re-evaluating and tinfoiling, and there痴 a pretty good chance Jeen is a wolf (I was just going to say the fact they haven稚 posted recently doesn稚 look great, then I remembered they said in recruitment they壇 be less active on weekends.)

    So I知 okay with the gamestate as a whole rn - this will probably be my last post before EOD so I wanted to make that clear.

    Also I知 overdue another piece of RP.


    The servant was being noticed, now. The Count, or Priest, trusted her, another noble praised her 都ound mind and astute observation, and someone had suggested she could be a conspirator. Which, secret or no secret, she certainly was not.

    The agreement seemed to be that her accuser was wrong, and perhaps a conspirator themselves. All seemed well - or relatively, considering the situation. Which meant that something was going to go horribly wrong very soon. That was always the way with these things.

    Still, she hummed a merry tune to herself as she prepared the nobles' rooms for the night. For now, at least, there was peace and calm.
    Personal paranoia: I see a list of three names and immediately think "if the person who made the list is scum, there's a single scum in that list, no more, no less". But that would make this a Snow/gac pairing which...we might be screwed lol no way we check them before Bat.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I definitely agree about Jeen and at least partly about gac but I don't really have opinions either way on BW. I should go back and reread some stuff.



    Indeed, if being wolf buddies with them last game taught me anything, it's that both of them are scary good at playing townies. Though I still get a town feel from Xi and I agree with whoever said blade is acting differently this game (last game he was driving the discussion a lot more, for one thing) which might be a good sign. So neither of them would be my first choices for either town or wolf.



    Yeah, my biggest worry is that we lynch Jeen and he flips town. If that's the case I'll start doubting everything.
    Person leading the lynch on Jeen is already kinda tiptoeing away from it. NAGL

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    This town never would let me forget. The newspapers, the interviews, the questions, the prying eyes. They all wanted to know. They talked about how tragic it was, how sad. It was infuriating.
    Once, though, one of the journalists looked me in the eyes and asked 都o, why did you do it?
    My mother had to pry me off of her.



    Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
    counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?
    I'm just gonna ignore the headache that is trying to figure out why Xihirli was trying to make Emmy an alternate D1 lynch, and just look at the vote here. I'm not saying this is pairing, I just wanna be clear that it's not unpairing either - with how little time remained in D1 at this point, there was no way this wagon was happening, and Xi knew it. Easy way to vote a scumbuddy when you don't know how the game will shape up.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    My thoughts so far starting with those with the fewest posts.

    Supagoof: 2 posts... One which boils down to "I vote BCH" and one pointing out my tendency to refer to them as sugapoof. Literally nothing to go on. So inactive.

    Libro: 4 posts. Counterclaimed Mr. Popo's. Vote Mr. Popo. Said they wouldn't get anywhere with their analysis without information. Given the fact that the countess is a confirmed town role and they have not been counterclaimed, seems they are likely telling the truth.

    Xi: 9 posts. Votes Libro because its fun to kill libro. Weighed in against the role reveal plan. Some fluff posts. Voting Mr. Popo because of the counter claim. Stated that they see Mr. Popo's plan, removed vote, defended Jeen (in a way that makes sense and I agree with), and expressed a desire to find a new wagon. Voted an inactive. Then didn't catch Jeen actively stating their princess claim was fake and switched a vote to me. So all in all, town lean? Voting me makes sense though a wolf could easily do that too. The defense of Jeen was fair and looks even better after the flip. Supports pushing more discussion. Overall I got town read here.

    Bladescape: 10 posts. Voted Mr. Popo for opening post. Two posts which contributed nothing. Questioned why AV was suspicious and promised more thoughts to come. Voted Jeen, did not include reasons. Non contribution post mainly focused on saying "Mr. Popo is a good player but plays hard." Finally got some fluff filled reads. Note to self: Finish reading the long Bladescape fluff post filled with their reads. They also stated that its not normally open/close and then stated that I am either red or Jeen is. Not sure what makes them confident that that is the case. Defending Popo's style. Then two posts stating we should look at Rogan if Jeen flips green... Well Jeen flipped blue so, I assume that still applies. Will come back to Blade. Need to read the long fluff post before I give a verdict on if I think they are town or wolf or what. Overall, their other posts are not overly helpful for analysis.

    JeenLeen: 11 posts. Lock town.

    Book Wombat: 11 posts. RNG Rogan vote. Presented the possibility that the Princess or Countess is not in use. Pretty sure this is narrator confirmed to not be the case? Suggests the countess should sacrifice their self for the princess after the reveal. Agreed but also, the reveal isn't necessary for that. OMGUS on Mr. Popo. Stated their vote was not actually OMGUS. Noncontributing post. "I didn't know Mr. Popo called me out. I wouldn't have voted them had I known." "I might be lying to appear town." Weighed in about their random vote. Vote count list. Overall has contributed nothing yet has posted a good bit. This would be more suspicious but... this is pretty much bar for the course for Book. However they seem very nonchalant about their "hey, maybe I am a wolf" which does stand out as something I don't remember them doing before. So maybe a wolf who is trying a balls out "hey guys, I'm wolfy" strategy or just Book not caring how their posts look. I respect either but am unsure which it is.

    Gac3: 11 posts. Voted Sugapoof for a dumb reason. A noncontributing post. Posted that they "forgot the game had started" despite having posted twice. Defensive post about their forgetting, pulling the classic "if I was a wolf, why would I lie about this." Called out Mr. Popo who had called them out. Continued harassing Mr. Popo. Continued to contribute nothing except arguing with Mr. Popo about their claims. Voted an inactive. Three noncontributing posts making excuses and promising future posts that would contribute. Another post focused on Mr. Popo and next to nothing else. So far has not contributed anything useful and only seems to be concerned with defending themselves, not helping town. Not a good look and not quite their normal style. Definitely suspicious. But also they have claimed privately so that's a point in their favor, assuming I can believe them.



    I still have AV, Snow, BCH, Rogan, and Mr. Popo left to do but I'm going to do some chores and school work so I'll come back to those either in a few hours or after I sleep, depending on how long said chores/homework take.

    Also side note: This was an interesting way too follow the posts. Since I am pretty much reading most of this for the first time, I literally only read the posts of the person I was examining. Meaning I was fairly able to isolate their actual contributions and stuff. It might be more effective (for me at least) to just continue bringing people up individually and reading all of their posts out of context when I do big analysis.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I tried to use different shades to show my level of town read. I'm not sure it was clear so so far I have:

    Jeen
    Libro
    Xi
    This is potential evidence for pairing: "I've looked at half the people in the game and here are my three town leads: dead townie, uncounterclaimed Countess, and Xihirli". It's even presented as a nice list of three to trigger my scumdar, and oh hey, a single one of them is confirmed scum and the others couldn't possibly be scum! I called this out for a buncha reasons at the time, as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan to start because Blade said we should look into Rogan and then Blade died. The rest of my review of day one to come.
    Considering the general consensus about D2 is that scum knew Emmy's goose was cooked once Popo and I started talking about it in the night, this could easily be a distancing post that isn't actually risking starting a Rogan wagon, since Emmy is 110% dying D2 anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    RIP bladescape. It is possible for you to be town after all.

    Hmm. I値l start by poking Book Wombat.

    I feel like there痴 exactly one wolf in Rogan/Batcathat. Re-evaluating both of those is my first task for today.

    Willing to help with unpairings at some point but I値l be busy IRL this morning so analysis will have to wait.
    Even at the time, this kinda felt like the kinda subtle comment scum might make. "I think there's exactly one scum between these two [and I think that because I'm scumbuddies with one of them, hehehe]"

    I'm curious to hear what unpairing case Snowblaze has for these two, especially since I'm pretty sure sometime D4/N4 she argued with me that a Rogan/BCH pairing might be plausible.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Batcathat

    - randomly voting me.

    - joking about killing AV.

    - townreading Xihirli. I like this, it痴 some good in-depth analysis. The paranoia at the end could be seen as hedging but BCH is paranoid in general so I don稚 think it痴 wolfy here.

    - fluff.

    - time zone stuff.

    - paranoia about me. I feel like that痴 the sort of thing wolves would want to encourage... but, like I said earlier, Batcathat is paranoid in general. (I think they池e more likely to be paranoid as town - though I致e never actually played with town!BCH before.)

    - mechanics speculation. (Side-note: that quoted BW post is pinging me a lot.)

    - more mechanics.

    - yet more mechanics. Although I壇 like to note that it痴 mostly in response to other people痴 mechanics talk, offering clarification/reactions. Which is fine.

    - first to vote Jeen; obviously that doesn稚 earn as much towncred given the flip but I still think it痴 mildly towny as it was a valid point and one I agreed with.

    - reads list; nothing particularly controversial but there痴 enough there to stop me invoking 途eads list without many reads.

    - post 140 was my major point of suspicion. Mostly because of the suggestion of alternate wagons but lack of an attempt to actually create one.

    - lots of agreeing with me. Which is fine. Probably not trying to pocket me. They didn稚 respond to my asking them to start an alternate wagon.

    - starting day two with more paranoia.


    I actually feel pretty good about BCH coming out of this. They池e a townread, especially if skimming through recent games indicates I知 right about the paranoia.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Based on recent posts, Rogan/gac3 not w/w. One unpairing done!
    Here's a fun post: "BCH is innocent, Rogan and gac are unpaired."

    There are six possible pairings in my mind right now. Here's the possibilities, and the ones Snowblaze crossed off early D2:

    BCH/gac3
    BCH/Rogan
    BCH/Snowblaze
    gac3/Rogan

    gac3/Snowblaze
    Rogan/Snowblaze



    A bit more seriously...wtf, you're townreading BCH off their ISO? I ISO'd them too at that point, it's not anywhere near that substantial. It's wishy-washy and kinda short - certainly far shorter than it was once they were constantly on the chopping block. I guess self-preservation kicked in real quick.

    This is evidence for a BCH/Snowblaze pairing, as well as a good argument for lynching Snowblaze D5 since every possible viable pairing includes her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Aw. I was enjoying not being suspected.

    Meh... some of the points in gac3's post are fair, others not so much.

    - Caoimhin specified which roles would exist, but Princess/Countess could have been in the unused roles and not exist until swapped in by a Prince.

    - After "I can get behind talking about mechanics" the only mechanical posts I made were an explanation of my maths and correcting Jeen's statement about the Baron networking.

    - I'll admit I was... kind of slacking a bit yesterday. A combination of being consensus town and Mr Popo doing so much analysis I guess led me to sit back and let things unfold maybe more than I normally would.

    - I can't be bothered to self-ISO again to see how much I actually contributed but I'm pretty sure it's more than is suggested. I remember saying I found you/Jeen/Wombat wolfy and wasn't too confident in townreading bladescape/Xihirli.

    - I wouldn't say I've been too defensive - she says, partway through a wallpost defending herself. But there's a difference between responding to accusations and being defensive. I'm doing the former.


    Anyway, I'm on mobile and have shaky internet, but I should be back to ISO Rogan this afternoon.
    This still feels kinda like an overreaction considering she's not even getting voted. I don't think it's pairing/unpairing evidence, but it might be scum evidence.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Okay, back.

    I townread Xihirli now.

    gac3 is... probably my biggest problem to figure out right now. My first thought when I saw their ISOs last night was "that's an awful lot of IIOA"; I still agree with AV's interpretation over Mr Popo's (though I should probably reread the latter's explanation, I only really skimmed it earlier. Though today's seemed a bit better. I think I need to see their thoughts on Rogan before I make a judgement on that.

    Going to go and do that Batcathat meta-dive I mentioned earlier, then I'll stop procrastinating and ISO Rogan.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Read through Mr Popo's gac3 townread. It seems to me like he's reading a bit too much into stuff gac3 isn't really saying. But it might be I'm just not crazy (in a good way) enough to get it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay, having skimmed through Afterlife: welcome to my town core, Batcathat.

    The other residents are Libro, Mr Popo, Xihirli and... to add AV or not to add AV, that is the question... yeah. Let's do it. AV can be town, for today at least.

    That leaves gac3/BW/Rogan/Emmy/Supagoof/rogue.

    Three wolves in there? Is that plausible?

    - - - Updated - - -

    gac3 isn't w/w with Rogan or Supagoof, so either
    a) my towncore is wrong
    b) the team is exactly Book Wombat/Rogan/Supagoof
    c) there's a wolf in the inactives

    Of which c) is the most probable imo.

    I'm normally against "lynch the inactives" but I think this game might be an exception.

    That being said I'm not voting for Emmy rn. Partly because she's already lead wagon, and partly because I don't want to mislynch her after last game.

    (Also is it bad that just the act of creating a POE makes me paranoid it's wrong? Probably. As long as I re-evaluate every day it's still a good strategy, though.)
    I don't like how BCH, Xihirli, and D2!AV are in the same category as Libro. I don't like her avoiding the Emmy lynch, especially right after she said "that's probably the right answer". As far as what this says about today, one would think from reading this post that D5!Snow would lean towards a gac/BCH team, given the argument that's come to light against BCH.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Meh, I can't be bothered to push through my utter lack of motivation to ISO Rogan. I'll go reread the thread, see if I find anything I've missed or new unpairings within the POE.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Tired and slowly losing focus. I'll take a break. But first:

    Things had, indeed, gone wrong. Not only had an innocent guard been arrested, the conspirators had poisoned that nice noble who'd praised her yesterday.

    She could be next. And she really didn't want to die, especially when - no. She refused to think about it. She was not going to die.

    And the best way to make sure that happened was to find the queen's followers. There would be no more quiet observation. She was going to have them arrested. Whatever it took.
    I'm not sure what to think that both gac3 and Snowblaze weren't really up to ISOing Rogan on D2. IDK how to tell y'all this, but we're going into D5 and the ISO's only gotten bigger and it might be LYLO so just giving up cuz it's hard would be very much not appreciated.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I decided to start with gac since he's both one of the people I'm most unsure about and he hasn't been super active so I figured it'd be quick. Yeah, that was pretty wrong, these things take time. I'll do more tomorrow but I'm not sure I'll have time to do (more or less) post by post analysis on everyone I'd want to.

    Writing this, I also realized that I might be kind of an anti-Popo in that I tend to argue against myself and ending up seeming (and feeling) unsure about everything. So there's a lot of "on one hand... but on the other hand...". I blame the fact that I've rarely met an argument I don't want to disagree with, even when it's my own.

    Spoiler: ISO on gac3
    Show


    That's about as good a motivation for an early D1 vote as any other. It's nice how he didn't pile onto me (but considering how the one time I jumped on a very early wagon, people immediately suspected me, maybe a wolfy gac's just too smart to do it).



    This is pretty much how I feel too, so I can't really comment on whether or not it's suspect.



    This is pretty weird. I could see missing that a game started or being too busy to post but forgetting a game you've already posted in has started? That is odd.

    But is it wolfy odd? I can't really see why a wolf would do it. He's already posted (and voted), so he's not exactly flying under the radar. Another reason could be to 殿ccidentally miss some discussion he was afraid would make him look suspicious. But I can't really see what that would be. There was some discussion about Snow's plan and Popo's claim but I can't see why that would be worth 塗iding from.

    Now that I think about it, why mention at all that he forgot the game? It hadn't been that long and I don't think anyone had questioned his absence (at least I can't find anything now). Maybe a wolf trying to look less threatening? But that might be stretching it.



    Could be true. I kind of doubted it at the time but now I kind of feel gac might've had a point about there not being any point to do that as a wolf. Of course, there's no reason the excuse can't be true but gac still a wolf, so at best the whole thing's neutral.



    I too got fairly confused by Popo's playstyle, so I can see where gac's coming from.

    Talking about how he's just skimmed some posts could be setting up an excuse in case he's called out for something later. But it could also be the truth, Popo's posts are usually rather long and I might've skimmed once or twice myself.



    More Popo talk. Not sure what to make of it.



    Frustration with not being understood feels towny but it's not like it couldn't be faked.



    Voting Emmy seems reasonable or at least not wolfy. Again talking about not having read (or at least not having analyzed) everything. Could be true, could be a wolf preemptively excusing himself.



    Same as above.



    Seems like a natural reaction to Popo's style, whether town or wolf.


    Could be an excuse by a wolf to not really taking a stand when a mislynch is pretty guaranteed anyway.



    Defending Jeen could be a way to get some towncred knowing he's gonna get lynched anyway (basically what Xi said about herself). The annoyance with Popo feels very genuine, at least.

    I won't comment the big analysis post in detail, I don't think I noticed anything that hasn't already been said. Posting it at night seems odd and unwise but in the same way forgetting the game had started seemed odd. I'm not seeing why a wolf would post at night any more than a townie would.



    It's not the worst reason to vote someone but it could also be a deliberate plan to make Rogan look bad by killing blade. I did wonder why blade specifically was killed, I suppose this could be the reason. But blade was hardly the only one to say we should look closer at someone (which is an argument both against gac's logic and my own).

    Then a second big analysis post. A lot of the reasoning is fairly similar to my own, which is... good, I guess? I feel he might be onto something regarding Snow but I'll get back to that when I dig into her posts. Of course, 鍍his person usually has better plans than this is basically why I voted Jeen and look how that turned out. Though the point about Snow usually pushing other people for reads is pretty good.


    Not sure what to make of it in general. I think the part about forgetting the game seems less wolfy than I thought at the time. He's kind of jumping around with his accusations but that could be a townie being unsure just as well as a wolf trying out different targets. All in all, I just read all his posts and is roughly as unsure about gac as when I started. Maybe it'll help if I sleep on it.
    ISO'd gac, and still can't form an opinion. Feels more like evidence against BCH specifically rather than evidence in favor of a BCH/gac pair.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    And I would love to tell you some more. But I hope, you will be patient. I am rather exhausted from work and will go to bed early(ish).
    I should have much more time tomorrow (rl time), since it's one of my days off.

    But there are some things I want to say before I sleep.

    - I'm still not convinced going for someone inactive would be good. It won't allow for many reads, since there are no posts of the players to read and only few reactions. It might be better to wait another day to see if things resolve themselves by the inactive rules. If they are still alive tomorrow (ig time), they had to be active at night. And this is a behavior that doesn't make any sense for a townie, so it will always be a wolf.

    - Snows plan seemed to be similar to something that happened in the Mafia Universe Tournament / Championship.
    Spoiler: Bucket Strat
    Show
    The bucket strat made the town PRs claim early, without saying the role. This would force the wolves to kill them at night, since those roles would never be killed by lynch. At the same time, the doc would have a better chance to protect someone successfully. (The 3 town PRs are doc, 1 shot vig, who must not shoot n1 and a motion detector, who would learn if someone made a night action or was target of such an action. The wolves had a roleblocker)

    While I only skimmed some matches, I think this strategy was successful in all matches it was tried.

    Spoiler: Differences
    Show

    Of course the setup is very different here, but the basic idea was the same. Make sure you start the game with as many guaranteed townies as possible. Now, the differences between the setups might change the effectiveness of the strat. It would certainly force a different approach for the mafia. In our case, they would have to try to remove the (hidden) maidens before they could target the Princess and Countess, while in the champs they could block and kill in the pool of 3, helpfully outlined by town.

    Where am I going with this? Well, I still think the basic idea is not bad. It has some risks and disadvantages, but advantages as well. It took me very long to understand why the princess should stay hidden. She still won't die during the day (if really necessary, claim in bold shortly before EoD) and she doesn't need to be known to be protected at night. This way the mafia might even waste a kill instead of shooting at unprotected villagers all the time. But that's an improvement to the original idea, not something completely different. (Did I miss another layer of hiding the princess? Feel free to wait until the game is finished before you answer this)
    Understanding the gambit a bit better, it improves my opinion about Mr Popo.
    My read on Snow remains positive. She wanted to help town with a decent plan. There are other positive things about her as well, but they were put forward by other players. From the top of my head, there is nothing I want to add. I might come back to this tomorrow (RL time), when I have more time, energy and a bigger screen.

    - I am glad that at least one player actually took the time to read my day 1 and analys it instead of only saying they would do so. Thank you, AV. Especially for the conclusion, of course. There are some points where I feel like you missed my point (for good or bad? Not sure). I will come back to them later.

    List of players I am not willing to vote for today:
    Snow - My paranoia of early day 1 was unnecessary. Her plan might not be optimal, but she had good intentions. She remains a strong town read. She is also the princess
    Library - Uncontested Countess claim.
    Mr Popo - I think I understand his motivation for the day 1 behavior better now. Some of the red flags I still had about him got dropped by this. He is a very active player as well and that's quite valuable for town. He is also the princess. And her father, but this is getting strange....
    AV - Actually doing things instead of talking about doing something. Active in general. Very observant in some regards (I wouldn't have noticed Emmy was active without getting here, for example) Survived the night, so killing her would not be funny anymore. She is also the princess Doesn't want to kill me
    Jeen, Blades - They are guaranteed to be town. They are also out of the match.

    List of players I tend to trust, but could convinced to vote if there are good arguments:
    Xi - She has to take a step back, since I won't use her RP/ letters as an argument for keeping her. But her play seems fine and somehow more like Crazy (where she was town) than PJ (where she was the first wolf to die).
    BatCatHat - I don't remember a single bad thing about him. Maybe he could be a bit more active. There are not many concrete good things about him as far as I can remember right now, but I am tired already, which definitely plays a role here. I might try an ISO when I am awake again.
    Rogan - He is not the princess. This is evil. I think, blades could have been partly to discredit me. He wants to reread me and promptly dies. In general, I am willing to die if it's necessary for the team. Especially if I know I made a big mistake. I might have made a mistake about the handling of the Princess claims, but that's not a big mistake, so you are better off hunting real wolves. At least, I didn't shoot the Seer this time

    Uncomfortable with voting for practical reasons:
    Emmy - If there is a wolf in the inactive players, she is much more likely to be the one. But we would not gain much Intel.

    Might vote for
    Book Wombat, Gac. Reasons will have to wait.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay, this was a longer post than I intended to do. Messed up the color codes, but they are corrected now.
    Now I am going to bed and sleep like a stone...

    Good night, see you tomorrow.
    Is against the Emmy vote, although it's at least for a consistent reason (he already mentioned his "no info gained" issue with lynching inactives, which is still true even if they're scum). Still not great. Additionally, Xihirli shouldn't be that high, and I have no idea why anybody was doing anything other than nullreading/slight scumreading Xihirli for coasting through things.

    I don't think this post really provides any real evidence for pairing/unpairing with the other three. It feels consistent with his existing thoughts, and doesn't really seem to be protecting/distancing with anybody.


    My eyelids are rebelling against me. I'm gonna go sleep, for real this time. I'll continue this ISO when I wake up, assuming I'm still alive. My general thoughts right now:

    I'm currently leaning:

    Libro
    Snowblaze
    gac3

    Rogan
    Batcathat


    Here are the six possible pairings, in order from least ridiculous to most (in my mind):

    BCH/gac3
    BCH/Snowblaze
    Rogan/Snowblaze
    gac3/Rogan
    BCH/Rogan
    gac3/Snowblaze


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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
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  21. - Top - End - #591
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    CaoimhinTheCape's Avatar

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    Jan 2017

    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    This thing can't go much longer, do you think?
    Under pressure you've lived these past few Days.
    Looking for Queen's subjects, down halls they slink
    Deeds done each night, to avoid other's gaze

    Once more to your rooms to solve this hard case,
    You've done well so far but each Day you waste,
    Another poisoning, for it you brace,
    When morning comes, you check the rooms with haste

    The group reaches the victim's room, "Oh no!"
    The palace hurries, its daily distress
    Brought out, unconscious, this morn is Libro
    Taken with him is trustworthy Countess

    The crowd has got thinner, for truth you strive,
    Get back to your searching, begin Day 5.




    Libro and Countess Wilhelmina, Town, were poisoned.







    Day 5 Ends Thursday, Sept. 23 at 11:30 PM EST /
    Friday, Sept. 24 at 4:30 AM Snow's time? /
    Friday, Sept. 24 at 5:30 AM CEST
    Last edited by CaoimhinTheCape; 2021-09-21 at 10:32 PM.

  22. - Top - End - #592
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Well. I will be honest. That surprises me.

    Anyway. BCH.

  23. - Top - End - #593
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Nov 2019

    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Me too, when AV started hinted at a plan I was almost sure they'd die. Anyway, I targeted myself as requested (sad to say, it turns out I'm NOT the Princesss) hopefully that can help clear things up.
    Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-21 at 11:39 PM.

  24. - Top - End - #594
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Me too, when AV started hinted at a plan I was almost sure they'd die. Anyway, I targeted myself as requested (sad to say, it turns out I'm NOT the Princesss) hopefully that can help clear things up.
    Working on ISO, but don't think I didn't see what this used to say.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Idek why you edited it out either. It's not exactly damning evidence against you.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  25. - Top - End - #595
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Working on ISO, but don't think I didn't see what this used to say.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Idek why you edited it out either. It's not exactly damning evidence against you.
    Ah, I was hoping I no one would see that but only because it made me look silly. I managed to miss the "Libro dying" part of Cao's post and thought that the wolves had skipped their night kill, either being scared of your plan or (if it's Rogan) by being inactive.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I should really stop checking this thread like five minutes after waking up. I'm not exactly at my smartest or most perceptive.

  26. - Top - End - #596
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    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Ah, I was hoping I no one would see that but only because it made me look silly. I managed to miss the "Libro dying" part of Cao's post and thought that the wolves had skipped their night kill, either being scared of your plan or (if it's Rogan) by being inactive.
    Honestly I probably read you as slightly townier for it. Like...if you were scum, you know full well that somebody died in the night. And your first post of the day is...blaming rogan for the lack of a kill? That's terrible self-defense, everybody can see Libro died, nobody will avoid voting you based on that argument! Scum probably wouldn't make that argument.


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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  27. - Top - End - #597
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Honestly I probably read you as slightly townier for it. Like...if you were scum, you know full well that somebody died in the night. And your first post of the day is...blaming rogan for the lack of a kill? That's terrible self-defense, everybody can see Libro died, nobody will avoid voting you based on that argument! Scum probably wouldn't make that argument.
    About time my stupidity made me look townier instead of wolfier, I suppose.

    So since I'm only slightly townier, I suppose it's too much to hope you priested either me or whoever did the kill?

  28. - Top - End - #598
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    About time my stupidity made me look townier instead of wolfier, I suppose.

    So since I'm only slightly townier, I suppose it's too much to hope you priested either me or whoever did the kill?
    Night actions have me far less willing to read gac3 as scum. Worlds where gac is scum require him to be extremely cocky about today's lynch.


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  29. - Top - End - #599
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    ...okay then.

    Batcathat for now. Busy IRL this morning but will carry on with my work on day three this afternoon.

    Also I can confirm that I知 a Guard, having tested my claim last night.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Though actually... if the game痴 still going after a Batcathat flip, and Rogan is town, we could be screwed. Rogan autolynched, game over, we lose.

    ...of course I知 paranoid, this could be LyLo.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I知 doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  30. - Top - End - #600
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    ...okay then.

    Batcathat for now. Busy IRL this morning but will carry on with my work on day three this afternoon.

    Also I can confirm that I知 a Guard, having tested my claim last night.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Though actually... if the game痴 still going after a Batcathat flip, and Rogan is town, we could be screwed. Rogan autolynched, game over, we lose.

    ...of course I知 paranoid, this could be LyLo.
    Yeah. We really need to treat today like it could be LYLO. Even if it turns out there's only one scum left, there might well be two, and then a mislynch is game over. If there's only one scum left, and Rogan autolynches town...

    Let's assume we mislynch a townie, then some townie dies in the night, then Rogan autolynches and flips town. That's two people left - one scum and one town. Current players are three guards and two non-guards (me and gac), and I'm fairly certain gac is town. There's two non-Rogan deaths in those three deaths, the lynch and the NK. So as long as we don't lynch AV or gac today, Rogan autolynching shouldn't ruin town's win? Assuming there's only one scum, anyway. Which we shouldn't assume.


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