Love Letter Mafia

[Snowblaze]

AV/Batcathat
AV/gac3
AV/Rogan
Batcathat/gac3
Batcathat/Rogan
gac3/Rogan

Well, that’s one team ruled out, on the grounds it makes zero sense for AV to make their relatively townread partner into the top suspect.

(I’m pretty sure AV is just town anyway, but I can’t get by on that at this stage of the game.)

Although. Actually. I just think it’s BCH/Rogan, or one of them if there’s only one wolf. But I have to rule out the other possibilities more firmly than “but it makes sense!”

[Batcathat]

Let's assume we mislynch a townie, then some townie dies in the night, then Rogan autolynches and flips town. That's two people left - one scum and one town. Current players are three guards and two non-guards (me and gac), and I'm fairly certain gac is town. There's two non-Rogan deaths in those three deaths, the lynch and the NK. So as long as we don't lynch AV or gac today, Rogan autolynching shouldn't ruin town's win? Assuming there's only one scum, anyway. Which we shouldn't assume.

This made me a little paranoid about a possible AV/gac pairing. It's probably not that likely (though I'll keep in mind when ISOing gac) but if it is what's happening, we're probably screwed.

[AvatarVecna]

This made me a little paranoid about a possible AV/gac pairing. It's probably not that likely (though I'll keep in mind when ISOing gac) but if it is what's happening, we're probably screwed.

If I was scumbuddies with gac, I'd not be bothering with big ISOs to find pairings, I'd be calling 4 scum starts ludicrous and pretending today isn't LYLO, and I'd've just voted you and been done with it. That'd be three votes against you, with only you and the absent Rogan to save town from destruction. That ain't what happened.

[Batcathat]

If I was scumbuddies with gac, I'd not be bothering with big ISOs to find pairings, I'd be calling 4 scum starts ludicrous and pretending today isn't LYLO, and I'd've just voted you and been done with it. That'd be three votes against you, with only you and the absent Rogan to save town from destruction. That ain't what happened.

That's fair, I suppose. I think my renewed paranoia about you is mostly because I don't really understand your trust in gac but I'm guessing you'll have a very long post about that coming up, so hopefully that'll calm me down (even if it would likely mean that I've yet again trusted someone I shouldn't).

[AvatarVecna]

That's fair, I suppose. I think my renewed paranoia about you is mostly because I don't really understand your trust in gac but I'm guessing you'll have a very long post about that coming up, so hopefully that'll calm me down (even if it would likely mean that I've yet again trusted someone I shouldn't).

Actually, the long post doesn't have an explanation, but since scum already knows:

Before he died, Popo Prince'd gac to try and get the handmaid power in play. gac got prince instead. Last night, I targeted myself, and gac prince'd me...making me the handmaid. I'm going to endgame and scum can't do jack about that. The only question is if I can catch them today, or if I can WIFOM them into wasting their NK.

I'm struggling to imagine a world where gac gives me the handmaid power on purpose and decides to kill Libro instead.

[Batcathat]

I'm struggling to imagine a world where gac gives me the handmaid power on purpose and decides to kill Libro instead.

Yeah, that does seem odd. So assuming that there isn't any wolfy reason for that and assuming a wolfy Snow didn't bus Xi for basically no reason instead of letting me get mislynched I suppose that only leaves Rogan, which only requires my read on him to be wrong.

Of course, this all assumes you're honest. I do mostly lean towards town on you but I also do that on Rogan and it's starting to look like I'm wrong about one of you.

Need to think and ISO on this.

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, that does seem odd. So assuming that there isn't any wolfy reason for that and assuming a wolfy Snow didn't bus Xi for basically no reason instead of letting me get mislynched I suppose that only leaves Rogan, which only requires my read on him to be wrong.

Of course, this all assumes you're honest. I do mostly lean towards town on you but I also do that on Rogan and it's starting to look like I'm wrong about one of you.

Need to think and ISO on this.

TBF that's not quite what happened with Snow either. What happened is that Snow claimed to have a chat with Xi, then later Xi claimed to be Guard, and then later I called that weirdness out when talking with Snow. It's entirely possible they're w/w, they weren't able to coordinate their claims because scum doesn't have day talk, Snow panicked when her claim didn't match up with Xi's and it got my attention, so she got decided to bus a scumbuddy for towncred since she thought I was guaranteed to catch one of the two of them now that I'd seen that weirdness.

This makes Snow less likely to be scumbuddies with you as well, though. There's worlds where D3 was a w/w thunderdome, but I don't wanna feel like town got that lucky. I guess I could see Snow wanting to keep you over Xi, since a number of people were townreading you before my case and Xi had a bit more attention from the likes of me and Rogan? But more likely, y'all are just unpaired.

[Batcathat]

TBF that's not quite what happened with Snow either. What happened is that Snow claimed to have a chat with Xi, then later Xi claimed to be Guard, and then later I called that weirdness out when talking with Snow. It's entirely possible they're w/w, they weren't able to coordinate their claims because scum doesn't have day talk, Snow panicked when her claim didn't match up with Xi's and it got my attention, so she got decided to bus a scumbuddy for towncred since she thought I was guaranteed to catch one of the two of them now that I'd seen that weirdness.

Yes, I suppose you have a point (it would be funny if Xi was on the recieving end of bussing this game). Maybe I'll take a new look at Snow too, if nothing else a wolfy Snow would mean that my early instincts weren't entirely incorrect.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: ISO continued

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I'm not the right person to check the math, but I've been having similar thoughts myself. Even if we get lucky and lynch an inactive wolf that doesn't really tell us anything.

I'm also entertaining the unlikely but amusing idea that both Emmy and rogue are wolves and as inactive as they seem, leaving some poor third wolf to do all the work. They have my sympathy if that's the case, after my experiences as the one person cult.

And yeah, it is pretty quiet. I expected waking up to a ton of new posts, rather than two. As with yesterday, I'll probably make the occasional post during my work hours but saving the more in-depth thinking until I get home.

Second bit almost sounds like wolf expressing real frustration with an inactive wolf.

Yay, something I can talk about!

Twelve alive, assume 9-3 or 8-4 then townflip today, town nightkilled, town!rogue and Emmy auto-lynch gives us 5-3 or 4-4 which... I did not realise the numbers were that bad.

We could be in MyLo tomorrow. If there are four wolves, we could *lose* tomorrow. That is most definitely not worth an extra day's discussion, especially since it would only be half a day atp.

Also: I'd be willing to bet there's a wolf in the inactives rn.

Also also: we can still discuss things. In fact, since I see you still haven't looked at Rogan, gac3, could you do that? (I'll do the same if I can find time/WiFi today)

Snowblaze, talking to BCH, saying "you and I should look at Rogan gac3". I have no idea how to read this in regards to pairing/unpairing, but seeing all four remaining players/suspects called out in a particular post makes me think there's gotta be something here to see.

Hmm. Pushing gac for reads after gac being suspicious about you not pushing people for reads this game? It's not necessarily suspicious but...

I said something in the previous ISO section about how Snow seemed to kinda overreact to gac's ISO concluding she was slightly scummy. And here we have BCH agreeing that it's a suspicion significant enough to be worried, even though I still kinda think it really wasn't. This could be distancing - Snow sees some weak suspicion on her and uses it as an opportunity to defend herself, and BCH pushes back on that very very weakly, even though scum knows full well that nobody but Emmy is dying today unless a miracle occurs and a townie has seriously messed up.

It's always dangerous to assume other people work the same as one self but at least for me, I feel like I'm more likely to go into defensive mode when I'm scum. All of that explanation despite not having a single vote against her? Hmm.

Of course, there have been quite a few suspicions thrown at her (especially by me, it feels like) and it's certainly possible Snow's just freaking about a possible mislynch.

Snow should probably be my next ISO. Hopefully then I can either trust her or just commit to voting her.

What do you even want me to say? We all know that BCH's activity skyrocketed following my accusation, and that 90% of it is very transparent "you should lynch somebody else instead of me".

It's always dangerous to assume other people work the same as one self but at least for me, I feel like I'm more likely to go into defensive mode when I'm scum. All of that explanation despite not having a single vote against her? Hmm.

Of course, there have been quite a few suspicions thrown at her (especially by me, it feels like) and it's certainly possible Snow's just freaking about a possible mislynch.

Snow should probably be my next ISO. Hopefully then I can either trust her or just commit to voting her.

Narrator: "Neither of those things happened."

This could be scum!BCH making noise about distrusting scum!Snow. I'd hesitate to call it evidence of pairing/unpairing, though.

Rogan: Honestly Rogan came out swinging. First post, before even voting they weighed in on plans and the like. I wish it was less mechanical but what was there to go on at that point. Was one of the first people to double vote and their first vote wasn't entirely random like most of us. Talked a lot about how the princess role should or does work. Did a lot of pushing for people to talk. Particularly me. Repeatedly pointed out something i have decided to agree with, that voting inactive people doesn't help unless you are trying to pressure them. Overall I'm not sure what led to initial suspicion of them. They are one of the more active posters and while they seem to fixate a lot on Popo and AV, their pushing for participation is a pro. Their having reasons behind nearly every vote is a pro. Not being afraid to push starting a wagon is a pro. Most of it seemed positive. The only thing that really stood out is the fact that they had a running list of "people I won't vote at this time" and it consisted of very little information. Some had small reasons and others were silly things like enjoying Xi's RP.




This also may be a good time to point out that I questioned Snow on the validity of the Countess and Princess not being in the game. I mistakenly assumed that "always town" and especially the details of the princess role would mean that the king and prince didn't affect them. Having read the role interactions I see my mistake.

Could be scum townreading a scumbuddy, but I'm at a point where I'm tentatively townreading gac3 for night actions, so I'm inclined to take the read at face value. Not necessarily sure Rogan can be trusted, but pretty sure he's not w/w with gac.

Finished my ISO on Snow. Found some stuff I liked more than before and some stuff I liked less, over all I'm still rather undecided. I noticed that she kept coming back to Rogan, so maybe I'll have some more clarity on Snow after looking closer at him.

Spoiler: ISO on Snowblaze

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I missed this part the first time I read the post. I was about to point out that Snow didn't defend her plan much when people started to question it. I suppose this could be a wolf being ready to drop a plan if town doesn't bite. Does it make sense to take the time to create a plan only to drop it almost as soon as people disagree? Not sure.



Feels a little early in D1 to jump on a wagon, doesn't it?



Encouraging people to follow her plan makes sense both for a townie thinking the plan's good for town and a wolf thinking it's actually bad for town.



Fine with dropping the plan she thought would work after one person questions it? I don't love it but I suppose it's possible Popo convinced her it wasn't a good plan or she at least gave up on convincing him.



Mechanics discussion. Doesn't really seem to be pushing neither for nor against her plan, though I could see that from a townie unsure of the plan's merits too.

Acting vote counter is helpful, but it could also be a clever wolf move to contribute without really contributing much. Though the fact that she keeps analyzing and discussing probably speaks against that.



I can't really speak about the math part. Could be a way to get town cred without risking accusating any wolves.

Asking for a read speaks against gac's point that I liked about her not doing that as much as usual. Of course, doing it about Rogan in particular could be an indirect way to throwing suspicions on him.



The thing about the time-zones could be a wolf's way of endearing themselves to me and Rogan (assuming he's town). But I'm probably overthinking it, it makes sense coming for either wolf or town.

Still in favor of her plan. Could be a sign that her lacking defense for it is what she said about not wanting to debate its merits rather than a wolf distancing themselves from an anti-town plan when it's questioned.



Seems less sure about Popo's claim than earlier, compare to "Princess, reveal yourself whenever you’re ready". But that could be genuinely changing opinion based on what happend in between.



Seems like a pretty reasonble reaction to what happened.



I can't exactly fault anyone for voting Jeen. I'm not seeing much of an explanation for why Jeen's her strongest wolf read but it might just be agreeing with what other people have said already, including him suggesting lynching Snow for questionable reasons.



"If I'm acting differently it's for fun, not because I'm a wolf". Though that might be overthinking things again.



More mechanics. Not expecting everything about Popo's claim and Libro's counter-claim is probably true, whether town or wolf.



This matches most of my own thoughts at the time so could be town but could also be a wolf pleased with how the discussions are going.



The vote for BW is reasonable, I think. I don't really understand the reasoning behind the either/or for me and Rogan. I feel like Rogan and I haven't really had much to say about each other this game (aside from sharing a time-zone) which if anything could point to both of us being wolves. I'll keep this in mind if/when I look over Rogan's posts, maybe we hade more interactions than I remember.



Hard to be objective about a read about myself but I suppose a wolfy Snow could've had a decent case about me based on being an early vote for Jeen. Though considering Snow voted Jeen too and no one seemed very suspicious of me, it probably wouldn't be an easy sell so I can see a wolf skipping that and trying to look towny to me instead,



I'll probably get back to this if/when I've read Rogan's posts.



Maybe. But it feels like she's doing the latter a little later.



There's not much to go on regarding Xi, but I'm also leaning town on her. Some more motivations would have been nice, but not having them is hardly a smoking gun.



A lot of back and forth on gac, but as something of an expert on that myself, I can't really fault that.



Nice to be included. Those are probably my strongest town leans as well and – assuming I'm not incorrect about all of them – confidently calling out likely townspeople as such doesn't seem very wolfy.



I don't like this. Snow keeps coming back to Rogan if not as a suspect than at least as a person of interest but doesn't ISO him? Seems odd, though as someone who recently took up the noble art of ISO, I can sort of see not having the energy to do it. Still, I don't like this at all.



Reasonable question and since I've felt like a hypotethically wolfy Snow has sort of been pushing a little for lynching Rogan, I like how she questioned a vote against him.



More math. Again pushing for reads about Rogan (but see above for a suggestion that Snow's not a wolf working to lynch Rogan). I've already commented on her pushing for a read after gac pointed out her not pushing for reads much this game.

Then her big defense post. The arguments themselves are decent (except maybe for the one about blade) but I still feel like being this defensive seems a bit wolfy, especially when not actually a likely lynch.



More about Rogan. Probably fair to say that it's unlikely for both Rogan and Snow to be wolves (or is she doing a very ambitious job of distancing herself in case he flips? Unlikely but not impossible, I think).

Can't say I'm surprised. Not necessarily pairing, since BCH is like this about everybody.

Okay, I spend my time mostly reading day 2, with a focus on some players that have something in common. I think you will find out what I mean very fast. Since there are too many posts to quote, I gathered the post numbers and made a short summary.

Spoiler: The posts

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Sorted by player and time:

gac3; #186; Vote for me, no review.
gac3; #197; Multiple reviews, but None for me.
gac3; #216; Advocates against shooting inactives. (Includes himself as as possible target)
gac3; #233; Paints himself as more wolfish than town. Is willing to get lynched. Opposed to lynching inactives. Promises a read on me and math about the inactive lynch.
gac3; #235; The prommised math on inactives. Encourages a fact check.
gac3; #238; The prommised review.

Snow; #190; Promisses to review BatCatHat and me, thinks one of us is wolf.
Snow; #193; Reviews BatCatHat, reads him as town. Rogan/gac not w/w.
Snow; #200; Answers to some suspiccion for her. Prommisses an Rogan ISO for this afternoon.
Snow; #203; Townread Xi, BCH, AV. Wants to see gac3 commenting on me. Prommisses to ISO me herself.
Snow; #204; Takes back her promise to ISO me. (Lack of motivation)
Snow; #218; Math about inactives & auto lynch. Reminds gac of doing a review on me. Suggests she would do one as well.
Snow; #220; Agrees with BCHs slight shade for herself. "Need to do something about all this tinfoil coming my way"
Snow; #222; Calls herself Overrated. Defends herself, including self meta. Fields Blades d1 town read as evidence. Promisses an ISO for me (again).
Snow; #224; Gives up the ISO again. Doesn't know how to read me. Doesn't know how to read anybody. Wellcomes BatCatHats plan to review her (#223). Asking for the possible wolf in her towncore. "For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo."

Supagoof; #205; RL reason for being quiet. Claims guard, no night action taken. Votes for me. Says he would have targeted me night 1.
Supagoof; #209; Unsure about me, wants to hear more. Defends himself.

BatCatHat; #208; Flip-Flop on gac3, me, (Snow?, Mr Popo?). Not much substance to any read.
BatCatHat; #211; gac3 ISO. Still flip flopping.
BatCatHat; #217; Agrees with gac3 about #216 (Not lynching inactives). RL explanation for being quite / saving serious posts for later.
BatCatHat; #219; Throwing some shade at snow about #218.
BatCatHat; #223; Again, throwing shade at snow without actually commiting to anything. Wants to do an ISO for her.
BatCatHat; #235; Joking about being a bad townie. Still flip flopping on gac3.

Spoiler: Bonus Quote

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No, this is my subconscious telling me that you and Book Wombat are in league!
Just joking. It was autocorrect.

So, what do I make out of those Posts? Gac takes his time till he actually does a read on me, but he delivers. We agree about the inactives a lot. 233 is something I realy like. I would rather read an honest review that makes me seem wolvish than a review with high praises that makes me locked town. Best, of course is an honest review that makes me locked town, based on facts instead of praise.

I might be influenced by his read, but I am still going to say, gac is town.

---

The next in Line is Snow.
There are things that rubb me the wrong way in there, like Snows flip-flop stance on making a review / ISO for me. Or take a look at #218. She makes a math post about wanting to kill an inactive. The math used makes it seem like it's possible to loose tomorrow if we don't shoot an inactive. At the same time, she is undermining her own argument by saying this would be unlikely, since there is propably a wolf in the pile of inactives. Why would you use an action to remove a wolf, which would be automaticaly removed anyway? In a worst case, this could be a wolf, trying to sacrifice another wolf for town cred while picking a wolf that would die anyway.
I am not sure if I realy overestimate Snow when I say she could pull this off as a wolf. Is there someone with more experience of playing with her who would be willing to comment?
Or how about that:


The words of nightkilled townies will be believed. Thats why Wolf!Snow would kill blades. It sets me up for a misslynch while you can use his believe to strenghten your position. You don't reduce my paranoia about you, you wake it up again, stronger than before.

It is propably this paranoia speaking, but I wonder if you actualy post something like that to make me distrust you. You keep talking about me, how important it is to make an ISO about me, something that seemed to be prompted by Blades death. In nearly every post on day 2 I listed above, you are at least mentioning me. You seem to want to get my attention: Well, here you are! Instead of simply saying you don't know how to read me, how about asking me some questions or something? Instead of talking about me all the time, why won't you talk with me?

Now, there are some things working in your favor as well. I agree your plan is pro town. You are regarded as town by multiple players much more experienced than I am. You might even be the Princess (the last part might actually make me MORE likely to vote for you some time later, since I literally could not kill an innocent that way (unless you don't manage to claim in bold before EoD)).

Conclusion: I liked her day 1. I dislike her day 2. There should still be better targets for today.

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Supagoof
He was inactive during the weekend for RL reason. As I stated before, I will never fake such a claim and I will trust such a claim when I receive it.
But it seems like he continues to be mostly silent, which is a bad sign. Having enough activity to avoid an auto lynch, but not enough to allow for actual reads on him. Could be a wolf crusing. Those few posts I see are even worse.

Spoiler: 209

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He want's to read more from me? I did not count the posts made here, but I could bet I am in the top 5, maybe even top 3. This in itself does not make me town. But it deffinitly makes me a more important player to have around.
In the same post he complains that Mr Popo talks too much.

Spoiler: Tangent about Mr Popo

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Yes. Mr Popo is propably Number 1 regarding posts. (And he manages to do so despite having a smal child, so hats off to you!) And on day 1, his posts had contradictions, layers uppon layers. It was confusing and hard to read right. But his day 2 posts? He takes the time to explain his reads and methods. He is helpfull, willing to teach. He is still a bit arrogant and I did not bother to read his older games he mentioned somewhere to check if this arrogance is grounded or not. If he is a wolf, I don't think I could catch him. If he is Town, I am not sure if we could win without him. And I am not willing to risk this.
Mr Popo is locked Town now.

Conclusion: I might be overreacting to his vote, but I think he is more likely to be a Wolf than a Townie. Even if he is Town, he is not realy helpful. I still would not be happy about voting here, for a similar reason than I am not happy about shooting Rouge or Emmy. It won't yield info.

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BatCatHat
He could be a textbook example for being unwilling to commit.
He attacked snow, but in an increadibly weak way. I could see this as a w/w. Creating just enough conflict to be noticable, but not enough to actually push a bus.
Did anybody make an ISO for him? This might help me reread his day 1 (which left me with a positive feeling, but nothing concrete to remember) without searching for the posts myself.

I picked him since his flip should yield more information than the other possible targets.

- - - Updated - - -



After reading BatCatHats post, I see more of the behaviour I mentioned: He is unwilling to comitt.
He is throwing shade for Snow in most of his replies, but keeping them low. Some highlights?



Thats the same kind of behaviour I already called him out about. Now, I have to admitt, he posted a long time before my wall, but I didn't see it.

Minor Points for seeing the same thing about Snow and her obsession with me. But if this were a w/w pair, he would know about her plan, so this won't give him town points in my mind.

Unlike Snow's post that mentioned the other three, this has some serious analysis of gac/Snow/Bat - specifically, liking gac, and feeling iffy about the other two (even suspecting a possible w/w pairing).

Back. And less paranoid.

gac3, your maths is wrong. The higher number should be number of town players, not total players alive, so LyLo/MyLo are significantly sooner than your numbers suggest.

Rogan:


I'm not really undermining my own point? If the inactives are town and we mislynch someone else today we're in a pretty terrible position. And... meh, you kind of have a point on "why lynch a wolf who's dying anyway" but I am not willing to stake the game on there being a wolf in the inactives.

I'm not obsessed with you. It wasn't just bladescape's death, I was never really that confident on town!you in the first place and I thought your positioning around Jeen was wolfy after the flip. (Speaking of which, that's why I made the "one in you/Batcathat" comment; I thought you had similar positions that a wolf would be likely to take.)

Since then I've been meaning to ISO you but haven't done so due to a combination of procrastination/IRL stuff/tiredness/the fact that I don't actually like doing ISOs. So I've been nagging myself in thread to do it.

You're right that talking to you is a good idea. Let's start with Batcathat. I did in fact make an ISO of them shortly after SOD. And they're town. They're not pushing me, they're tinfoiling me. Which is both understandable and towny for them given the meta thing I pointed out earlier.

Also, a few questions:
- do you think there's a wolf in the inactives?
- what's your read on Xihirli?

I have an urgent deadline that just came up so it's likely I'm not going to be back before EOD.

Oh yeah, and Supagoof, because I forgot how much I wolfread his posts yesterday and because I'm not enthused by his latest "hey, still here" post.

"Also, a few questions:
- do you think there's a wolf in the inactives?
- what's your read on Xihirli?"

...does this read to anybody else like Snowblaze knows Emmy and Xi are scum?

And another one done. I really doubt I'll have the time and energy for more than one or maybe two more before EoD. Not sure how much they are helping me or anyone else, but it feels like good practice if nothing else.

Spoiler: ISO on Rogan

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Good start with lots of analysis for this early in the game. Advicing against massclaiming seems town but it might also be a wolf understanding that town won't go for it and gaining some town cred.



Some mechanics. Some support for Xi but (I think?) only for the RPing.



This is reasonable enough, but I could see a wolf trying to push a mislynch under the guise of "wouldn't it be funny?".



Same as above. I would probably be more suspicious if it wasn't aimed at AV specifically.



Wolf and town would both want to clarify this, so doesn't really say much, I think.



Good suggestion, but not really indicative of alignment obviously.



I had (and still do) similar thoughts so they're not necessarily wolfy, whether or not Snow's town.



Mostly about the mechanics of Snow's plan but if Rogan's wolfy, it might have been smart to leave it uncommented or use it against her. So some town points, I guess?



I suppose opposing a rule interpretation that favors the Princess could be somewhat wolfy but I can buy that it's more out of a sense of fair play.



Same as above.



Mostly summing up what's happning, I guess?



Not sure how serious this is intended, seems like an overreaction if serious but I could see it being jokey (and even if serious, not sure it's very wolfy).



Same as with gac, this seems like a pretty normal reaction to Popo's playstyle.



Seems reasonable enough, I guess. I usually don't move around my early vote until I have a good reason to either. Could be a wolf hoping the wagon will gain some momentum without having to really commit.



This too feels like a reasonable reaction to Popo's D1 antics.



Feels like a lot of the arguments aren't very relevant (Xi's letters, my time zone) but it could be padding for fun (and honestly not having many reads) rather than padding to hide not contributing.



Starts understanding Popo better, which I think a lot of us who haven't played with him before started doing at this point, so that checks out. Though most of the discussion seem rather vague, which I don't like.



Could be a wolf trying to lure out the Princess, could be town trying to find answers. Hard to tell.



Consistent with what he said earlier about claiming Princess, at least.



I think I like this analysis for the most part.



I mostly agree about voting inactives and considering how useful the inactives were for the wolves last game, I'm leaning towards this being a little towny? Though I suppose he might be specifically trying to protect his wolf buddy Emmy.



Mostly talking about who isn't wolfy rather than who might be. Not sure that means anything at all.



Mostly more of the same. Having a long list of people not to vote for seems like it might be a bad idea for a wolf, in case they want to jump on some convinent wagon later. So a little towny, I guess?



Most seems to be a clash of play styles. Feels kinda genuine. Voted Jeen for what I think were pretty solid reasons.



I still mostly agree about the inactives but it could still also be protecting inactive wolf buddies.



The first part could be a wolf preemptively excusing not reacting to something that might stop a mislynch. But that seems a little unnecessary (and this post was around 3 am in Rogan's time so going to bed it quite reasonble )



I kinda like this part. It's not as if Rogan really needs to motivate staying on Jeen at this point so it feels honest.



I think this is pretty fair from what I've read. Rogan seems to go quite a bit back and forth on Popo in particular but that's pretty understandable.



Seems consistent with what he's said earlier, aside from maybe trusting Snow more. Speaking out (more or less) in favor of her plan after it's been fairly discredited feels oddly town to me. Could be a wolf still hoping to use it against town, but I don't think so.



In other news, I think the ocean is wetter than the desert.

I won't comment on his big post in detail. Most of it seems fine, though I disagree about liking gac's #233 (as I said before, it feels forced to me) and (obviously) the vote for me. But it's a reasonable theory, if trying out ISOs has shown anything it's how much I tend to argue against myself. I'd point out that I've basically acted the same way in all games, whether town or not, but since being unsure isn't exactly hard to fake (and indeed, I've occasionally played up my inexperience when scum) I could see how that's not really helping me.

So yeah, I don't really have any good defense. His arguments are sound, it's just the conclusion that's wrong.

A lot of mixed feelings in this one too, but there were a few things I really liked so I think I ended up leaning town on Rogan.



Wait, so are you saying that you think specifically one of us is a wolf or that at least one of us is a wolf? Because it sounds like the former but the argument seems to support the latter.

I shouldn't post when rushed. At the time I also thought "...but it's unlikely two wolves had that similar position". Also I don't believe in that read any more, I stopped at about the point I realised you were town.

- - - Updated - - -

gac3, why are you still voting Rogan despite now having reached a townread on him?

Snowblaze isn't necessarily scum for townreading BCH prior to my accusation (Popo did that too), even if I'm not sure why BCH was being townread based on all that waffling. I like BCH calling Snow about the inconsistent argument - it's a weak callout, but it feels genuine.

Emmy! Hi!

I'm afraid you're currently lead wagon, but it would be great if you could catch up and give us some thoughts on who the wolves are before EOD.

Didn't Xihirli do this to? React to Emmy getting online with like "oh well that's good now we don't have to lynch you maybe?" Like...am I just reading too much into "I'm afraid you're currently lead wagon" or does that sound to y'all like w/w interaction? Especially given that Snow has made the argument that there's probably a wolf in inactives.

Someone else giggled along and told us of the time in fourth grade when she had chased another girl around a classroom trying to hit her with a pointer. No particular reason. Unfortunately for her, the principal walked in just then. She came home crying from being paddled and lied to her mother. She said the principle had been cruel to her. After winning over her parents, the principal lo and behold, showed up on her doorstep to explain the situation.
When it was my turn, they looked at me with red, expectant eyes.


Emmy's back! Great!

Well, I could be persuaded off of the "kill the silent" wagon as now Emmy is not silent. Supagoof's RL stuff could very well be true but that doesn't make him not a wolf.
Though I do also feel weird about apparently getting a Night Action from Emmy but no chat until just now. Words speak louder than actions, as they say.

Yeah, Xihirli did do that.

Yeah, that's fair. I did go into your ISO hoping it'd lead to a vote against either you or Snow (and was leaning towards you, to be honest) but I can't say your argument didn't help motivate me to finally get a vote off. I'm not super confident about either of you (I suppose I sort of subconsciously decided that one of you probably is a wolf, if both of you are that's some good distancing) but it felt like your posts had a few more town leaning things and fewer red flags so I'm okay trusting you at the moment.



Good to know. I don't really consider Emmy's inactivity in itself to be particulary wolfy, whether before or after her belated entrence, since she hasn't really been very active in earlier games. But doing an night action and not even checking into the thread to give a comment, analysis, anything is rather troubling. I was vary about voting Emmy earlier but now I don't know.

This could just be disagreement with me/Popo, which isn't necessarily a crime. But it does look worse after seeing Emmy flip.

I promised to pay more attention to Xi, so here I am. The fluff is a nice little story about lying and getting caught. It could have some connection to the gamestate, somewhere deep down. But if there is such a meaning, I don't see who should play which role...
The analysis is basically similar to my own thought processes, but only to the point where Xi implies exactly the opposite of my conclusion.

For me, Emmy's behavior is clearly worse than Goof's. So far I've been unwilling to vote for her since she was going to die anyway. Goof's behavior, on the other hand, while not helpful to the village and quite suspicious in places, at least he gave some reasons. I can't verify those reasons, but I believe him when it comes to RL.

So, why would Xi change her stance on Emmy? If Emmy is Wolf, Xi might have been willing to bus the inactive. Especially if Wolf!Emmy says the truh about her n1. An inactive living to see day 3 would be nearly 100% been an outed wolf. Lynching her afterwards would be a no brainer and make for a boring day.
Lynching her today, while she did not talk? It could give some town cred for catching a wolf, it would sacrifice a wolf that was doomed to die anyway. It would be a good move for a wolf.

If Emmy is a wolf, Xi is more likely to be a wolf as well. There is basically guaranteed to be at least one wolf on Emmy right now, especially if she is a wolf. Of course, this wolf doesn't need to be Xi, but it is a possibility.

I'm still kinda feeling good about this post (it feels like an observation a townie would make, and pairs well with Rogan's D3 posts calling out Xi), but it's hard not to read it like Rogan already knows how both of them would flip.

Spoiler: Review of BatCatHats Day 1. Many thanks to AV for gathering the posts

Show

Disclaimer: I did not include all the quotes but concentraited on those I actually wanted to say something about.



This one resonates with me for obvious reasons. We are in a similar situation regarding EOD. (Right now, I am in the comfortable situation of having the next day off as well. I will be busy again on Thursday.) This is not proof of his allignment, but I still feel sympathy for this post.



Some paranoia about snow, but nothing concrete. Still voting for her. It's early day 1, so this vote does not carry that much weight. It is a bit like the behaviour I called out day 2. Throwing shade, but not too much.



This is the same oppinion about the Princess I had at that time. It turned out to be a flawed oppinion, but I don't think Wolf!Bat would say something like that on purpose.



AV called this post NAI mech speculation that would distract from the actual game state. I disagree. It is an important clarification and 100% in line with his previous mindset. He sees a Princess claim as an advantage, so as soon as he sees something that is both wrong and might influence the Princess to stay hidden, he steps in and makes sure the Princess will know she does not need to fear loosing her vote.
This is both helpful and something I would have done as well. The rules of the game are the law. It's important to know it and to ensure everybody is on the same page there.





This seems to be out of line with his day 2 behaviour. He calls something suspect and does not take long to vote there.



This post is good, with some bad streaks. He gives a list of the players and his oppinions. Thats helpful, townie behaviour. But most of those oppinions are non commitment, including many "No idea at this time". If we remove this padding, we are left with ~5 real reads, none of them very strong. But it is better than most players.
All in all, town lean.



Okay, this part might explain why he was fast when voting for Jeen, but slow when he was judging Snow and me day2. Maybe I am undestimating Bat here, but I don't think he could fake this as a wolf.

I remember again why I liked Bats day 1. I also see what Snow meant when she said we were in agreement a lot.
His behaviour between days changes a bit, he is less willing to comitt now than he was before. But he has a good explanation: He is partly responsible for the death of a townie, since he started the Jeen case. This case was wrong, but it still was a good case.
If this is a play, coming from a wolf? You will be BatCat, since Hats off!





I am surprised about your order regarding the wolf reads. You have BookWombat lower than Emmy? Why?

Thanks for the details about Afterlife. Mr Popo was a bit faster than you are, but this is not meant to be a critique. I simply want to state: This guy realy puts a lot of energy into the game. Im impressed.

After my reread, I have to do the boring thing:
Vote: Emmy

My next actions will be:
Crossing out my old vote.
Reading what happend while I was busy with this post.
Not answering, unless it is a direct question for me. I'd rather go to bed now. Good night everybody.

I probably shouldn't scumread people for townreading BCH, since even I was doing that prior to N2. It's something that looks worse in hindsight than it is.

No pressure, then!

Supagoof/BW is currently my solve as well, but I need to do a lot of work to convince myself, never mind everyone else.

Not now, though. Taking a break from this game will do me good.

This feels townie to me. It lines up with Snow's thoughts at the time, and I don't think scum would post a specific pairing like this.

Fair enough. Stupidity should have consequences, even when it's my own.



If nothing else, I do agree with your paranoia (he said to his number one suspect ), though I'm currently questioning AV rather than Popo. AV certainly could be a townie drawing entirely reasonable conclusions from the evidence at hand (Note to self: Must start checking extended signatures) but I could also see a wolf finding a perfect way to get a mislynch without looking especially bad afterwards.

Still really don't like the aspersions cast on my character just to undermine my case against them. Feels more scum than town.

Here's my thoughts on Xi. Obviously not my main concern at the moment, but I was going crazy trying to figure out a convincing argument (and I'm not sure there is one). I'll get back to it though, I'd rather live somewhat suspect than be cleared in death. Until then, if any other guards checked out Libro N1, please speak up.

Spoiler: ISO on Xihirli

Show

I'm skipping all of the RP, if there's some message hidden in them it could just as well be the completely wrong one.



Not much to say, it's not like either town or wolves had any idea Libro is the Countess at this point.



Could be true regardless of alignment, probably is.



As I said at the time, I feel like protesting against something that seemed unfairly favorable for town would be more likely coming from a towny Xi than a wolfy Xi. But I suspect I might've let that influenced my opinion of Xi a little too much going forward, so I should probably try to ignore it right now.



Seems like a straight forward clarification.



RP focused. Makes sense considering her letters.



Probably just joking around. This actually made me guess Xi as the Princess N2, since jokingly implying being the Princess while actually being the Princess seems like something she might do. As you can probably guess by now, she was not.



A reasonable vote at the time. Probably her first real contribution to finding the wolves.



Defending Jeen turned out to be a good idea but could be a wolf trying for town cred. It feels like it doesn't really refute the main argument against Jeen, maybe intentionally?



A good vote, but could be the above in reverse, getting town cred if Emmy flips later but not really risking lynching her at this point.



Not sure what to make of this. Kind of feels towny but I have nothing to back up my gut.



Reasonable clarification.



Good point, I wonder if that should count towards towny or wolfy?



Voting Emmy again, this time with a much bigger chance of actually contributing to a lynch. So probably town? Though last game taught me that Xi have some good instincts for when to bus, so there's that.



Could be sincere, could be a wolf looking for an excuse to back off.



Not taking the chance to back off though. Could be she felt she couldn't do so convincingly, but that might be overthinking it.



I don't really like this, both for not wanting to provide other suspects and seeming a little unnecessarily defensive.



This feels better. Maybe still a little defensive but I think the reasoning is sound.



I envisioned more of a hacker cave aestetic but to each their own.



This mostly reminds me that I apperantly need to keep an eye on people's signatures. I must've gone over BW's posts five times trying to find what AV was looking for and then it wasn't even in the thread.

Overall, I think I might lean a little more wolfy on Xi (there was a few things I didn't like in the posts and I feel like I might've overvalued a few of my "this seems like something wolf Xi would/wouldn't do" considering I don't know her that well) but still mostly towards town.

This conclusion kinda strikes me as scum trying to not massively townread or scumread a scumbuddy.

Somebody please post so I can get the rest of this posted soon.

[Batcathat]

Somebody please post so I can get the rest of this posted soon.

Looking forward to the continuation.

Also, I'm a little curious about my activity supposedly skyrocketing after your accusation. I've felt like I've been fairly active all game, at least from D2 or so (but I haven't counted posts so maybe you're right).

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: ISO concluded

Show

I have WiFi. Present and correct, for a little longer at least.

It took me far too long to twig exactly how incriminating the Batcathat thing is (I thought a Handmaid might have targeted Mr Popo, but then realised he was Baroned (are we just turning all the roles into verbs now?) so that couldn't have happened. My gut still says there are town!BCH worlds but I don't think this is when I should listen to it.

(Also I didn't like their reaction to my claim - I'm their top suspect so I'd expect them as town to be thinking "what if she's lying" rather than "aw, I could have had a better role".)

My day two sucked even worse than I thought, then, if I miscleared a wolf on top of everything else. I still have tinfoil thoughts on other people but I don't think I need to go there rn. I'll reread the game and see whether there's anything that contradicts the possibility of a Supagoof/Batcathat team.

Also I fixed my RP problems.

Spoiler: RP

Show

Her father was dead. The Princess desperately ill. She was suspected of being a conspirator. The servant bit her lip, hard. She wasn't going to cry. She had to fix this, now.

Best to come clean, she supposed. She glanced around the room, raised one hand to her hood, and threw it back. Beneath was her thick, wavy raven hair, the unmistakable mark of the royal family of Nocturne.

She had their attention now. "I am Pr - " she'd imagined this moment for so long, she'd almost forgotten she was a prince no longer. "King Snowblaze of Nocturne. I received the tragic news of my father's death- " her voice didn't wobble - "early this morning."

Deep breath. Keep going. Explain everything. "I have long heard rumours of the beauty of your Princess. I wished to see if she was as fair of mind and heart as of body. If she would have me as her bride, and one day rule beside me. So I came to your court not as myself but as a servant, thinking that would let me judge the character of Her Highness. But then this dreadful conspiracy unveiled itself."

Pause. Breathe. "I am deeply sorry for what has happened, for all those you have lost. But I swear, I am not part of the conspiracy. And I will help you, if I can, to find them and bring them to justice."

Not sure what I'll do once I king someone else tonight, though!

Supagoof...



I... cannot see where anyone said that was their plan? What exactly are you replying to here?

- - - Updated - - -

Rereading the context a bit, it sounds like Supagoof is claiming that someone suggested I was clear because I was kinged and so couldn't have performed the kill. No-one said that unless I'm completely missing something.

I have trouble believing that Snowblaze got this many posts into D3 before realizing the BCH case. I'm more inclined to think this is scum seeing a case against a scumbuddy, panicking, and BS posting for a bit to remain active while trying to figure out if she should bus BCH or not. This is pairing evidence.

Because of course I remove a Handmaid. Add another lolme to the list.

I just realised this is something no-one’s really talked about that much yet: what’s wolf!Batcathat’s motivation for fakeclaiming a clear on Libro? The only thing I can think of is “to earn towncred for being helpful” which really doesn’t seem worth it... though then again with one Priest mafia and one dead there’s not really much risk involved, and Batcathat did fakeclaim in Percy Jackson when the benefits were low to non-existent.

I might just be overthinking things. Probably, knowing me. But I’m still worried.

Took Xi's claim at face value despite being Baron'd with Xi the previous night. I still think it's weird that Snow didn't even consider how strange it is for baron to link two players when the Baron is neither of those players...or rather, didn't consider it until I called it out.

I was writing down what I meant to be some final thoughts to share before getting lynched but once I had written them I figured I might as well post them right away. Nothing major but you never know what might help going forward. Those of you too convinced of my guilt to believe a word I say are welcome to come back after my flip.

• gac3 – I was suspecting him early on but he has since sort of fallen off my radar. If I had to guess, I'd probably say town.
• AvatarVecna – It's kind of hard to look past the whole "basically sentenced me to die" part and I still can't decide whether I think it was a clever (and lucky, unless the wolves somehow manipulated BW) wolf plan or an innocent townie coming to a reasonable conclusion. Maybe a very slight town lean in general?
• Xihirli – Maybe a slight town lean but less than before.
• Snowblaze – Still feels wolfy and her "Gosh darnit, I messed up again" attitude isn't helping.
• Libro – Is the Countess, so town. I suppose my death will remove any lingering doubt about this, at least.
• Supagoof – Feels wolfy, but I suspected BW for a lot of the same reasons and that didn't turn out great.
• Mr. Popo – Maybe it's AV's scum-assuming ISO, maybe it's how confident he seems in my guilt (though if that initial stream of consciousness confusion was faked, it was beautifully done) but I don't feel good about Popo. Though the combination of playstyle and unfamiliarity makes him the hardest to analyze.
• Rogan – Probably my strongest town lean now, even if I'm still a little worried it's because we've come to a lot of the same conclusions.

I might end up posting a new one tomorrow after going over my ISOs again. I suppose I should logically at least try to look at Popo and/or AV, but for someone basically working his way through ISOs 101 that feels rather overwhelming.

This is probably NAI. If I were acting on the assumption that BCH is scum, I'd say this indicates BCH/Snow: BCH knows they're caught at this point, and is just trying to anti-spew scumbuddies a bit. Be vague about Xihirli, and distance from Snow. Not new opinions, just a way to make the read list look more like analysis than it is. But that's probably just being paranoid.

Xihirli never claimed Baron, she claimed I turned her into a guard. Someone did QT us last night, though.

Also. You're claiming Priest. Directly counterclaiming Mr Popo.

screams into the abyss

Could easily be read as screaming about the two claims semi-contradicting each other, enough that it tweaked my scumdar.

Xihirli is claiming that she was turned into a guard night one. If this claim is true, she can't have created a QT night two. So baron!Xihirli implies she fakeclaimed guard for ??? reason.

...I hate mechanics.

Like seriously, this is Snow's next post. Not even acknowledging that I said I'm not counterclaiming Popo, Snow is more concerned about the new inconsistency pointed out between her claim and Xi's. This feels like a wolf that got caught lying with a scumbuddy and now has to choose between bus or get bussed.

Claims so far

Libro claims to be the Countess.

Batcathat claims to be a Guard, and to have successfully confirmed Libro's role night one.

Xihirli claims to have started as a Handmaid (I think she implied targeting Libro night one) but been turned into a Guard night one.

AvatarVecna claims to have been a Priest all game, and to not be counterclaiming Mr Popo.
Mr Popo claims to have started as a Priest, targeted Supagoof night one but been kinged, and kinged Snowblaze night two, becoming a Prince. He also claims gac3 is a Baron who targeted him night one.

Supagoof claims to be a guard, and to have targeted gac3 night two and successfully guessed his role.

Snowblaze claims to have started as a Prince, targeted Xihirli night one and attempted to target Batcathat night two but was kinged. She also claims a QT between her and Xihirli was established night two.

Known information
JeenLeen was a Guard at the start of the game.
bladescape was a Priest at the end of night one.
EmmyNecromancer was a Guard at the end of night one.
Book Wombat was a Handmaid from the start of the game until his death.
rogue_alchemist was the Princess at the end of night two.

Think that's everything, let me know if there are errors or I've missed something.

IIoA.

...had a realisation. Xihirli is a wolf.

Emmy wouldn't have self-targeted in worlds where the discard pile contains two Guards, because she gains nothing from that.

Since we know Emmy did self-target from AV's tracking, we can therefore conclude that the discard pile didn't contain two Guards.

We know Emmy got a Guard night one, because she flipped Guard. Which means the other person claiming to have become a Guard night one, Xihirli, must be lying.

We can also plausibly infer that the second Baron, the one who connected me with Xihirli, is scum. Because why would a town Baron connect the one who's been flying under the radar and the one who's likely to die tomorrow because she's widely suspected?

And we know that the Baron is likely in the group of guard claimants. So what makes most sense is that Xihirli is a lying wolf and also the Baron.

There's also no evidence that there was a second QT night one (please correct me if someone else was QTed night one) which implies that the Baron was an unused role night one.

...either that or I've made a large mistake somewhere.

I've commented on how this case had flaws in it, that were outweighed by "why even lie about it", but let's detail out those issues:

Spoiler: Flaws

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Emmy wouldn't have self-targeted in worlds where the discard pile contains two Guards, because she gains nothing from that.

1) Guard is a nice safe claim to make; Prince has to be accountable for their actions, whereas Guard is a step up from vanillager. If somebody came asking "why did I get Prince'd", Emmy would need to explain herself. Nobody is going to wonder why Emmy targeted somebody with the guard power.

2) Prevailing theory is that scumteam knew Emmy's goose was cooked about halfway through N1 when Popo and I were calling her out. If someone dies, the role is lost forever, but if they get Prince'd, the role goes into the unused pile. Emmy self-targeting could've been scumteam's way of keeping both Princes in-play (sort of in-play) to cause more chaos down the line, rather than being lost forever. Backfired on them because double-prince got me the handmaid power last night.

We know Emmy got a Guard night one, because she flipped Guard. Which means the other person claiming to have become a Guard night one, Xihirli, must be lying.

Technically speaking, you didn't know that Emmy got a Guard N1. Emmy claims she was Prince N1, and I claimed I saw Emmy target herself, but as BCH pointed out, I could've been lying for some reason. Sure, at this point in the game we know what was in the unused pile because now it's in play, but at the time Snowblaze made this plan, anything other than "Emmy was a guard when she died" was pure speculation based on the word of confirmed scum Emmy and always-suspicious AV.

We can also plausibly infer that the second Baron, the one who connected me with Xihirli, is scum. Because why would a town Baron connect the one who's been flying under the radar and the one who's likely to die tomorrow because she's widely suspected?

I generally think most players would prefer to give themselves a QT, but that doesn't mean I can't imagine a world where they'd do otherwise (especially after gac pointed out he wasn't intending to connect himself to anybody N2 initially). I can see somebody who maybe doesn't trust their own reads or analysis or strength in private conversation, who is townreading Snow and Xi, and decides to lynch them. Or rather, at the time I considered that as a possibility - now I know that Xi was indeed the Baron. But still, at the time, it was a definite possibility that just gets glossed over. I can fully admit I was wrong in that nobody would ever Baron two people when they were neither.

Also...Mr Popo spouting off, and gac having a semi-negative opinion does not equal "widely suspected". You were generally getting townread, it's not as weird that somebody would want you networked as you're making it out to be.

And we know that the Baron is likely in the group of guard claimants. So what makes most sense is that Xihirli is a lying wolf and also the Baron.

I can't give Snow flak for assuming this, since it's a good assumption, but technically D2, it's entirely possible that half the claimants were lying, and it so happened that the web of lies only appeared to have a single impossibility in it. Up until we got way more flips and confirmed half those claims, though, it's entirely possible they were lying and the baron wasn't one of the guard claimants.

There's also no evidence that there was a second QT night one (please correct me if someone else was QTed night one) which implies that the Baron was an unused role night one.

This part was true, no edge cases I need to point out here.

That's a lot of weird little edge cases that didn't get attention drawn to them.

I can't find any flaws in the reasoning, except maybe AV could be lying (even if it seems like a weird lie, even from a wolf), but right now I don't have a ton of confidence in either my own grasp of the mechanics or you. Will have to think about it and see if anyone else spots any holes or red flags I might be missing right now.

"Oh boy, a wagon that isn't me! I'll just not point out any of the weird edge cases that weaken the argument, except the one that let's me accuse AV of lying since that weakens their case against me!"

Is this a townie trying to help solve the game even if it means they get mislynched along the way?

Player List: gac3 AvatarVecna Xihirli BatCatHat Snowblaze Libro Supagoof Mr. Popo Rogan Rogue_Alchemist Book Wombat EmmyNecromancer bladescape JeenLeen

Role List: Countess King Prince Prince Handmaid Baron Baron Priest Guard Guard Guard Princess Annette Handmaid Ursula Guard Parolles Priest Helenus Guard Odette

Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim.

BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another.

Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.

Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 action not claimed?

Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

RA is Princes. No action possible.
BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.

Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim

---

Xis claim can't be true unless someone else is lying. One guard has to be lying. One Baron is unaccounted for.

The blue claims are extremely unlikely to be fake. The black ones are neutral.

Please remember, being truthful about the role is not the same as being town. Same thing for lying and scum, but town would need to have a good reason.

IIoA except for the part where they very lightly defend Xihirli despite voting her. Rogan did this a lot D3, which I still don't like.

By the way, I have pointed out that there has to be a lying guard and it's more likely to be Xi than anybody else before.
I didn't vote right away to give Xi a chance to defend herself and to check my reasoning.
Xi can still try to defend herself and there could be strategic reasons for voting someone else first, even if we think Xi is guilty. The Baron power can't be used for evil if you are aware of it, after all.

Could easily be distancing from Xi now that somebody else started a wagon on Xi. Snow at least was bussing by making a case, rather than supporting somebody else's case. I don't think this is evidence for or against a Rogan/Snow w/w pairing, though.

I mentioned it in my ISO on Xi, I checked if she was the Princess N2. I'm the first to admit this probably wasn't the most optimal use of the power either, but I'm having trouble finding good ways to use it and I figured "Xi might be jokingly imply she's the Princess while actually being the Princess" seemed possible. I could have checked some claim, but with most roles being of either alignment I wasn't sure how helpful it'd be.

Very slight townie points for this. I think if scum had already gotten caught about scrying Libro, they would pick a better cover story than "I tried to hunt for the princess last night, but I'm town I swear". Could be an attempt at TWTBW?

I know there are multiple reasons to lie. See Jeen in Crazy or PJ, night 1 each. Or town!Mr Popo here, regarding the countess.
If I catch someone lying, I want an explanation. Sometimes I can guess this explanation, sometimes it remains a mystery.

I would not claim for my own good. My actions could all be lies, based on believing the previous claims. Part of the limits of my role, I guess. Which is also why I can feel Bats frustration. What are you going to do with this kind of scry? It's more useful for the wolves, they will want to know who the maiden is or who could track them. For town? It is only helpful to back up someone else's claim.

To clarify why I think Xi is the most likely lier:

For there to be a Baron from day 1, they would have to be either wolf or very unlucky. Or perhaps not grasping the whole situation.
There is only one Baron power usage confirmed/claimed for n1 right now. So either, the Baron power failed - wolf or stupid town. (Hitting a Handmaid target and not telling us while BCH is on the chopping block for claiming an action on the most likely Maid target.)
The other possibility is, there was a new Baron. In this case, the only thing that makes sense is, Xi is the new Baron. She admitted to being Prince'ed. She is one of the QT targets.

To clarify, this is Rogan's response to me saying "I suspect Rogan of lying the least" and Rogan is getting defensive? Why?

...okay.

Being the Baron is bad because you were previously claiming to be something else.

On the one hand... "oops, sorry, I claimed the wrong role" is exactly what I did in Percy Jackson. On the other, I don't necessarily see why wolf!Xihirli would do that???

Will think about it.

This still looks so shifty. "I did this in PJ, so I'm not sure why scum!Xi would do it here" except Snow was scum in PJ. Snow knows full well from 1st hand experience that scum is fully capable of screwing up a claim like this, and yet she seems willing to give Xi a bit of towncred for it. NAGL.

Gac3 claims Baron and is backed up by Popo and AV (n1 and n2 targets)

AV claims Priest. He reports Emmy self targeted n1. He reports gac3 targeted Gac3 and AV n2.

Xi claims Maid targeting Libro n1. Action didn't resolve, since she was Princed. Snow confirms princing. Xi claims to have gained guard. No action stated for n2. Counter evidence: Baron was active between Snow and Xi. Snow can't be Baron. No third party Baron claim. Xi changed claim to Baron, mixing up role names.

BCH claims guard. N1 action to check libro. N2 action ???. I think you told us and there was no contradiction. First action half contradicted by the fact libro should have been Maid'ed, but there is no proof for a maid action one way or another. N2 action to guess Xi is Princess. Answer no. Bad decision from mech standpoint. But in line with the other explanation.

Snow claims Prince targeting Xi n1. Backed up by Xi. She claims getting king'ed n2. Backed up by Popo.
Libro claims Countess. Very unlikely to be a lie. Backed up by BCH, but BCH might be bluffing. No action claimed, but very unlikely to actually get to take an action.

Supaggof claims guard. N1, forget to submit action. N2 to guess gac as Baron. Answer Yes. No contradiction, but no new info either.

Mr Popo claims to have been a priest day 1. King'ed n1, so no action. Night 2 used king on snow to become prince. Backed up by Snow.

Rogan claims Guard. N1, target Popo: Not Priest. N2 targets Snow. Not Baron. No contradiction here, but no evidence either.

RA is Princes. No action possible.
BW is Maid. No action claimed. Didn't target Popo, blades or gac.
Emmy is scum. Emmy died guard. Emmy claimed to be Prince, self targeting n1. Backed up by AV.
died as Priest n1. He either was Priest the whole time or kinged Popo n1 before dying himself.
Jeen is a guard and never had a chance to take any actions.

Please check yourself in my list and let me know if I am missing or mixed up your claim

---

Updated the list. New things in bold. I made a new post for it in order to allow quoting, if necessary.

Xis change of claim strengthens the Guard claims. That's Goof, Bat and Me.

Xis original claim makes no sense for either alignment, at least not in my mind. So it was either a mind game, or an honest mistake.

Goof has RL reasons for being quiet. Frustrating, but probably true.
I will have problems being active myself the next ig day.
Sunday is a family gathering, monday is work day. I try to be active near EoD.

---

Goof, why did you pick gac and Baron? What made you pick this combination?
What did you hope to learn night 1?

List of claims, but it also comes with some analysis and a really good questions. Slight townie points to Rogan for this.

For the first time since AV's initial case against me, I have some hope to actually survive the day. Which is nice, even if I suspect I'll probably get lynched D4 instead, whether or not Xi flips wolf.

If she does flip wolf, at least I can trust Snow again. Not even my paranoid mind can think of an explanation for why she would create a very strong case against a fellow wolf out of nowhere and for seemingly no reason (if that's the case, I've gone from town reading Snow when she was a serial killer to wolf reading her when she's town. That's some questionable progress but I can live with that).

My suspicions against Goof are pretty much unchanged, regardless of Xi and Snow. He probably is a wolf and the only reason I can see myself not voting for him D4 (assuming Xi's lynched and flips wolf) is some sign that there's another wolf and who that is. Unless Goof's a lot more active behind the scenes than he is in the thread, he's probably not the most dangerous wolf (assuming he's not the last wolf and most dangerous by default, of course).

I'll still try to look over my ISOs before end of day, in case I get lynched, but with both Goof and Xi posting fairly little I doubt there's much I can find.

Good evidence for a Snow/Bat pairing. If one of them flips scum and game isn't over, it's probably the other one. D3 really is starting to feel like it was scum!Bat caught until I came an inch from catching scum!Snow and/or scum!Xi too, so scum!Snow made a case on Xi before I could put the pieces together for myself. Posts like this following the day up just make me feel more confident in that read.

I struggle to parse the first answer. What Priest are you talking about? And why did you suspect gac as the Baron?
Look, right now, there are two possibility for you to be more likely to be scum. Either, you are lying about your action. At the time of your claim, gac already was out in the open, so your claim would be an easy lie to mask your real action.
But if you are saying the truth about your action, you guessed right. Guessing right is easier to do for scum, since they know more roles from the beginning. You claim to have guessed, without even night 1 info, the Baron.

So, I was kind of hoping you could point me to some place of the game where it was hinted that gac might be the Baron. If you were following a hint, this would make your action more trustworthy. Bats actions are not very good, but his explanation is quite simple.

The explanation of avoiding targets likely to be Maiden'ed is fine. The role switch on the other hand? I would like you to explain this in a bit more detail. There is a way to interpret it in your favor, but I would like to hear it from your own mouth instead of just saying "yeah" after you got this explanation from someone else.

The part about your interest in me is plausible.

I still maintain that calling this post out as weird and not very helpful at all is a good take from Rogan. But I can also admit that, following Supagoof's flip, it doesn't look quite as good. Wouldn't be difficult for scum to call out a townie being shifty for no reason.

Counter point. If I had just received a new role, it would be fresh in my memory. If I had the role for multiple rl days, I might have forgotten already. Well, I probably wouldn't, since I like my mechanics. Mechanics don't lie to me. And the role names are not that hard to remember. It's not like I had to remember the name of Dionysus wife.

Do you think Xi wanted to fake claim? If yes, why? I tried to find a logical reason, but could not find one.

Rogan defending Xi while voting Xi.

Okay, this is probably the first time someone told us gacs role. Hilarious bonus? Mr Popo confused about role names. Something that makes Xi the top target right now.



Your logic checks out. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. This is an easy thing to happen, especially in some of popos posts. They are so long...
And I highly doubt AV and Mr Popo are W/W. I think they are T/T.

Subtle defense of Xi by pointing out Popo did the same thing, sort of.

Oh yeah. If they are the team, I wonder if they were glad about Emmy dropping out. Without talking, she could not discredit them.

Hmmm... less than 7 hours left in the day. And it's mostly silent again. I guess I can spend some time on mech talk?

Spoiler: To maid or not to maid?

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If we want to have a chance to save someone tonight, we have to go for a variation of the plan I suggested. I don't think guards are important anymore. We have all claims.
The Priest remains important, he might track a killer to the victim.
The maiden is important as well, but currently not in the game.
The Baron is more useful than the guards, but not that important.
The Prince is required for the plan.
The King is required to not interfere with the plan.
The Countess can't to anything.

I think, I noticed a flaw in my initial idea. If the maiden is first in line, the wolves will know this. So they must not know the first link in the chain, or they can kill the maiden right away.
This would be the worst case. The last maid would be out of the game. There will never be a chance to save at night.

Town points for this plan to get handmaid back in townie hands. I don't see scum pointing this out to town, even in a spoiler - more likely, they'd let the possibility go unmentioned hoping town hasn't realized that possibility.

Of course. It's just that from my perspective the game is basically already won and I would prefer to be alive to see it. Don't worry, I'm sure my general paranoia will keep me looking at everyone else besides Goof too. (Except for Snow, who I guess went from my top wolf read to my strongest non-Libro town read).

The game doesn't feel solved unless you're scum - then, or now.

Okay.

...hmm. That’s two nightkills of people who’ve suspected Rogan now. Is Rogan a wolf or are wolves trying to frame him?

AV, I don’t necessarily agree about “there has to be a wolf outside the guard claimants”. From my PoV that means gac3 is a wolf, and I... actually, why do I townread gac3 other than “sheeping Mr Popo”?

Scratch that. Mechanical reason for gac3 to be town. You know when I was talking about Emmy self-targeting in my Xihirli case? And how she’d only do that if there was a decent role in the unused pile? Well, if wolves already had a Baron I can’t see them wanting another one.

So we’re back to the guard claimants. Batcathat for now, pending working through a Xihirli interaction analysis and the mess that is my feelings on Rogan.

NAI. Could be read as distancing or just townie doing the right thing. If I were inclined to read this as w/w, it would be that the towny move is to immediately vote BCH and then figure out suspicions elsewhere, and scum's top priority is looking towny. But that's assuming guilty until proven innocent.

I decided to try and check out the claim of one of my fellow guards and it turns out that Supagoof is NOT a guard. Not damning in itself, of course, as someone might've messed with his role, but not a good look.

A couple hours ago I gave BCH townie points for making a case on Rogan that scum would never make ("nobody died in the night so it must be rogan" even though somebody had died in the night). Scum trying to save themselves doesn't make that weak of an argument for another person's lynch. Same slight townie points for this post, for the same reason. I'm still not happy about BCH grasping at every possible straw for salvation, but they're doing so in a way that scum wouldn't.

Are you saving Supagoof for later or just randomly excluding him from your suspect list? I can see why I'm suspect number one (damnit BW, couldn't you just have protected Libro N1?) but surely Goof is as suspect as Rogan or gac, if not more.

Once again, a day where BCH looks screwed no matter what, so if they're scum, anything they do could be trying to keep us from finding their scumbuddies next. This could easily be distancing.

Well, gac3 isn’t a suspect really, just someone I need to be able to clear more confidently than I can at the moment.

Supagoof... he’s definitely still in my POE but I liked some aspects of his day three and the reasons I wolfread him earlier feel like “Reasons Snowblaze Tunnels Town” and/or me wanting him to be a wolf because I was the main alternative at that point.

(Also Rogan has trended down significantly today, to the point where I’m considering voting for him instead of you. But I’d like him to show up and give thoughts before I decide.)

And this immediate reply that has BCH not even really at the bottom of Snow's suspect list doesn't look good in the context of that possible distancing.

[Popo messages]

Adding this just for some reason to trust gac3 that isn't "AV said so": everything here oozes Popo energy, it'd be very difficult for gac to fake Popo's style if he wanted to manipulate us that way (and scum would certainly want to). This feels extremely genuine, so I'm inclined to trust gac based off it.

I'm going mad, right? This isn't what I actually think it is, is it?

We have Supagoof referring to something that hadn't been posted in the thread (iirc; will check) and then we have that exact thing posted by Mr Popo in a thread only him and gac3 could access.

Is this actually real?

"Oh look, a plausible reason to not vote my scumbuddy BCH"

Incidentally, that's pretty much exactly how I feel as well.

I really do hope you're the last wolf, otherwise I'm gonna feel a lot worse about our chances of winning.

Now that it's tomorrow, though, I'm sure BCH doesn't feel like dying for town anymore.

For the record, Supagoof, none of the reasons I'm voting for you have anything to do with BCH. I'm voting for you because I think you might have slipped, and I don't have any compelling reasons to townread you, and I don't have any strong opinions on which order my POE should die in so I'm sheeping AV.

(Sidenote: imagine Scar-pushing-Mufasa-off-a-cliff image here, because I made you king and now I'm killing you.

Long live the king!)

(Side-side-note: I really need a good song idea.)

Anyway. Barring any last-minute revelations, see you all later, hopefully in postgame!

...slight town points for this, but it's a little convoluted: I think scum would overthink this post, and wouldn't want to say "I feel like a disney villain!" That part of the post would get excised out before the post was actually submitted.

Maybe I'm too trusting of Rogan, but I feel you might be letting gac off the hook too easily.

After getting busy and lazy yesterday, I suppose I should get back to my plan of giving at least gac and Rogan another look (and maybe AV?).

BCH knows I basically can't be convinced of BCH/Rogan, and also knows that Snow can't be convinced of Snow/Rogan, so BCH suggests Rogan/gac as the remaining possibility. I now have good reason to not ever vote gac.

*shrug* I have decent reasons to townread gac3 (Mr Popo trusted them, they've used their power in a very pro-town way, it doesn't make sense for Emmy to self-target for a role wolves already had).

Plus, mislynching gac3 is wolf!you's only plausible route to victory atp.

Also I just remembered an unpairing I had: Rogan/gac3 not w/w which means we need to kill you tomorrow. I'd kill Rogan over gac if it lasts to F3, but hopefully I'll have got myself poisoned by then.

Snowblaze confirming the implications of my previous statement: BCH's only chance is convincing Snowblaze on Rogan/gac3, which Snowblaze has as not w/w and has had as such for days. Granted, I don't think the reasons for that clear are very solid, but still.

If there's a single wolf, here's my reads:

• gac3: cleared based on Handmaid help
• Rogan: If rogan was absent, who did the kill? Granted, he could've logged into QT without logging into the forum, so this point isn't that strong, but he's still the weakest scumlean right now.
• Snowblaze: Lot of suspicious stuff in the ISO
• Batcathat: A textbook case of a caught wolf refusing to shut up and proving they only care about their own survival

If there's two wolves left, here's my thoughts on that:

• Rogan/Snowblaze: While a number of things in the ISO support this pairing, there's one post from Rogan and one post from Snowblaze that are very much unpairing evidence, in a "no way would they have made this post if they were scumbuddies"
• BCH/Rogan: Initially I refused to consider this pairing because I'd've expected surrender, but there's nothing in the ISO that contradicts it.
• BCH/Snowblaze: A good bit of the ISO makes more sense if these two are connected, particularly the weirdness with how D3 went down.

I'm going to go ahead and vote Batcathat but I'm worried I'm making a mistake and the real answer is that the only remaining scum is Snowblaze.

- - - Updated - - -

Looking forward to the continuation.

Also, I'm a little curious about my activity supposedly skyrocketing after your accusation. I've felt like I've been fairly active all game, at least from D2 or so (but I haven't counted posts so maybe you're right).

It might just be confirmation bias, but it feels like I used to see your posts occasionally, and now you're everywhere and also you're always pushing the same angle (which is "lynch anybody else for any possible reason").

[Batcathat]

• Batcathat: A textbook case of a caught wolf refusing to shut up and proving they only care about their own survival

I suppose I might've focused too much on my own survival, but I'm not really seeing how lynching me would be worth it for town. Hopefully you'd get some usuable intelligence from it but it would still mean a townie dying and wolf not dying. I don't mind dying for the good of the tema (and did so last game) but I don't really see reason to do so willingly here.

Overall, it was an interesting read. I was wondering why you seemed to consider a me/Snow pairing as more likely than a me/Rogan pairing yesterday but I think I see the reasoning now.

[AvatarVecna]

I suppose I might've focused too much on my own survival, but I'm not really seeing how lynching me would be worth it for town. Hopefully you'd get some usuable intelligence from it but it would still mean a townie dying and wolf not dying. I don't mind dying for the good of the tema (and did so last game) but I don't really see reason to do so willingly here.

Overall, it was an interesting read. I was wondering why you seemed to consider a me/Snow pairing as more likely than a me/Rogan pairing yesterday but I think I see the reasoning now.

Lynching you is worth it because you're on the wolf team. If you're not, then you're a townie for whom 90% of your efforts since D3 have been about "not dying" instead of "catching wolves". If I were to do an ISO on your D3 onward, my response to basically every single post you've made would be something like

"...and that's why you should lynch anybody else instead of me!" -Batcathat

The problem isn't wanting to survive. Everybody wants to survive, if they get a option between the two. The problem is that there's nothing else here. There's only you twisting in the wind latching onto each and every possibility that you could possibly be...not even innocent necessarily, just second-scummiest.

[Batcathat]

Lynching you is worth it because you're on the wolf team. If you're not, then you're a townie for whom 90% of your efforts since D3 have been about "not dying" instead of "catching wolves". If I were to do an ISO on your D3 onward, my response to basically every single post you've made would be something like

I like to think I've tried my best to catch wolves, even if I haven't been particulary good at it (again, I'm very new to this). To be fair, it's probably partly because finding wolves (or supporting the people who do) is the only way I can prove my innocence short of dying. I've made my argument for why I'm innocent and everyone seems to understand the argument – just not finding it likely enough.

Part of your impression might be from me doing a lot of quick replies while at work but saving ISOs and such for when I have more time and that's probably a fair complaint.

(And yes, I do realize the irony of replying to your observation with yet another "Hey, don't kill me" post).

[Snowblaze]

Okay, cool, I guess I can clear gac3 based on that.

Which leaves:
AV/Rogan
Batcathat/Rogan

...wait, is that it?

Okay. One of Batcathat/Rogan, or both if there's two wolves. Final answer. (AV is almost certainly town, and if they're not we're screwed.)

...except I'm now terrified I was right day two when I said I was the Designated Final Mislynch. Batcathat flip had better end the game.

- - - Updated - - -

Part of your impression might be from me doing a lot of quick replies while at work but saving ISOs and such for when I have more time and that's probably a fair complaint.

Except you haven't been doing "ISOs and such" since day three... right about the time AV presented their case against you.

Who are the wolves, if there are two? Who's the wolf, if there's only one?

"I don't know" is not an acceptable answer.

[AvatarVecna]

Okay, cool, I guess I can clear gac3 based on that.

Which leaves:
AV/Rogan
Batcathat/Rogan

...wait, is that it?

Okay. One of Batcathat/Rogan, or both if there's two wolves. Final answer. (AV is almost certainly town, and if they're not we're screwed.)

...except I'm now terrified I was right day two when I said I was the Designated Final Mislynch. Batcathat flip had better end the game.

If there's only one scum left, qhat's your read list look like and why?

Except you haven't been doing "ISOs and such" since day three... right about the time AV presented their case against you.

Who are the wolves, if there are two? Who's the wolf, if there's only one?

"I don't know" is not an acceptable answer.

I've been working on that big ISo for awhile now, but I would swear I saw.some BCH ISOs in there that happened after SoD3. I'm driving rn but I'll check to be sure when I get the chance.

- - - Updated - - -

Like yeah, I think there's a darn good case for lynchi g BCH above anybody else today, but also there's no need to distort the facts to fit the case, yeah?

[Snowblaze]

If there's only one scum left, qhat's your read list look like and why?



I've been working on that big ISo for awhile now, but I would swear I saw.some BCH ISOs in there that happened after SoD3. I'm driving rn but I'll check to be sure when I get the chance.

gac3 - makes no sense as scum given town!you

You - I don't see any compelling reasons to suspect you, plus if you're a wolf we're screwed anyway.

...now what order do I put these two in? I think Batcathat has been wolfy since your case, but I also think they were towny beforehand. Rogan feels in some ways like Craziest Idea and has suspicious Xihirli interactions from day three.

My gut says Rogan wolf, my brain says Batcathat wolf. Trying to reconcile them is proving difficult.

(Also Batcathat posted the BW ISO they'd done overnight, and then did the Xihirli one after the case, and I don't think there's been any since then. Okay, technically I was exaggerating, but my point still stands.)

[AvatarVecna]

Huh, that's unexpected. Now I really wish I hadn't done an ISO on BW in preperation for today. Posting it anyway, since I already have it, but the conclusions are obviously mostly wrong.

Spoiler: ISO on Book Wombat

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Talking about mechanics:
When going through BW's posts, I decided to try dividing the post up by topic. Some quotes might be under multiple headlines.





Lots of mechanical talk which the wise elders tell me is a bad sign. I guess I can see why that is, but in this case there was quite a bit of mechanical talk in general, including from myself. Overall, not a great look but not necessarily wolfy.

Explaining/defending themselves:







I don't like how this is the largest group. As I said about Snow, I tend to see being overly defensive as wolfy (based mostly on myself). Explaining what was meant is one thing but the other ones don't look great. I could see it as more towny if BW was under lots of pressure but I don't think that was the case?

Joking:



Not much to comment on. Jokes could be a way to seem active without contributing but if making stupid jokes was wolfy I should probably lynch myself.

Other:







The random first vote seems normal. Voting Popo at the time makes sense, as does voting Emmy later. But aside from the votes there's barely anything contributing to the discussion. It's similar to Supagoof but seems to contribute even less despite more posts.

I like this. A wolf could have used my fairly drastic change in confidence to strengthen their existing case against me but instead Rogan draws his own conclusions about it and reevaluates his earlier view. Feels towny, but I suppose my paranoia about a wolfy Snow wanting me around for the endgame could be true about Rogan too.



While I didn't love what I'd seen from BW, I felt that Emmy's non-talking action was a big enough red flag. If I had done my ISO on BW before that, I would probably have reversed the order though.



This looks bad, no doubt about it. My only guess is that BW actually protected themselves on N1. Will have to think on this.

- - - Updated - - -



I don't think that's how the King works. The rules says "Each night, the player with the King may choose one other player in the game. They will switch roles so that the targeted player becomes the King and the original player gains a new Role." To me, that sounds like the original King gets a role from the unused ones, not their target's old role.

Here's my thoughts on Xi. Obviously not my main concern at the moment, but I was going crazy trying to figure out a convincing argument (and I'm not sure there is one). I'll get back to it though, I'd rather live somewhat suspect than be cleared in death. Until then, if any other guards checked out Libro N1, please speak up.

Spoiler: ISO on Xihirli

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I'm skipping all of the RP, if there's some message hidden in them it could just as well be the completely wrong one.



Not much to say, it's not like either town or wolves had any idea Libro is the Countess at this point.



Could be true regardless of alignment, probably is.



As I said at the time, I feel like protesting against something that seemed unfairly favorable for town would be more likely coming from a towny Xi than a wolfy Xi. But I suspect I might've let that influenced my opinion of Xi a little too much going forward, so I should probably try to ignore it right now.



Seems like a straight forward clarification.



RP focused. Makes sense considering her letters.



Probably just joking around. This actually made me guess Xi as the Princess N2, since jokingly implying being the Princess while actually being the Princess seems like something she might do. As you can probably guess by now, she was not.



A reasonable vote at the time. Probably her first real contribution to finding the wolves.



Defending Jeen turned out to be a good idea but could be a wolf trying for town cred. It feels like it doesn't really refute the main argument against Jeen, maybe intentionally?



A good vote, but could be the above in reverse, getting town cred if Emmy flips later but not really risking lynching her at this point.



Not sure what to make of this. Kind of feels towny but I have nothing to back up my gut.



Reasonable clarification.



Good point, I wonder if that should count towards towny or wolfy?



Voting Emmy again, this time with a much bigger chance of actually contributing to a lynch. So probably town? Though last game taught me that Xi have some good instincts for when to bus, so there's that.



Could be sincere, could be a wolf looking for an excuse to back off.



Not taking the chance to back off though. Could be she felt she couldn't do so convincingly, but that might be overthinking it.



I don't really like this, both for not wanting to provide other suspects and seeming a little unnecessarily defensive.



This feels better. Maybe still a little defensive but I think the reasoning is sound.



I envisioned more of a hacker cave aestetic but to each their own.



This mostly reminds me that I apperantly need to keep an eye on people's signatures. I must've gone over BW's posts five times trying to find what AV was looking for and then it wasn't even in the thread.

Overall, I think I might lean a little more wolfy on Xi (there was a few things I didn't like in the posts and I feel like I might've overvalued a few of my "this seems like something wolf Xi would/wouldn't do" considering I don't know her that well) but still mostly towards town.

For some reason I thought There were more ISOs than this. There's certainly more pre day 3 I'm sure, but your point is more valid than I gave it credit for.

[Batcathat]

It was more about running out of people than being accused. There was Popo and AV, of course, but the combination of their posting rate and experience made that both a rather daunting and quite possibly useless task.

Speaking of ISOs, here's a new one on gac. He wouldn't have been my first choice now, but I started on it before AV explained their reasoning and I figured I might as well finish it.

Spoiler: ISO on gac3 II: Electric Boogaloo

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I don't have time to do the proper math to figure out how specifically true my following thoughts are but I'll check them later and provide the math.

I'm actually wondering if we should lynch me or someone else who is high suspicion instead of inactives.

The big reason to lynch inactives is because if they are both town and we mislynch today then we have lost three town members. The two of them amount to losing a whole day/night cycle. Because if they were active we would be able to afford two more deaths. So lynching them instead of a townie mislynch is appealing because we would only lose a day or night, not both. Except if we follow that strategy, it kills conversation because we aren't wolf hunting. So we lose today really. Lynching an inactive tells us nothing and guarantees we lose at least one whole day of productive accusations and defenses while maybe allowing us to survive another day or night. It's not really worth the trade. But my math may be off. If someone checks it before I can, feel free to shoot me down if I'm wrong. Point is doing a mislynch might be more productive than avoiding an auto lynch.

The reason to not lynch inactives is reasonable and "maybe lynch me instead" feels towny, though of course he could have been hoping to protect Emmy figuring the chance of people lynching him instead wouldn't be very high.

I have no intentions of doing that. One because I usually can't fault AV's logic. If I can, they are probably a wolf. And two because I more agree with their assessment of my participation than Mr. Popos.

I will admit I got a little caught up on defending against Mr.
Popo at first but since then I remembered something important... My surviving matters not at all. In fact I can't remember the last time I was lynched. I get night killed all the time and have several times made it to the end of the game but a straight up lynch? Might even be a bit refreshing. I also would rather mislynch someone like myself in a way that sparks conversation more than I'd like to quietly have town lynch and inactive to avoid auto lynching.

That said, I have just gotten off work and my thing for Rogan and my math on mislynch over inactive lynch will be forth coming when I get home.

This kinda feels like willing to be lynched to an exaggerated, possibly fake, degree. Though I suppose it might just be that I'd look bad by comparison if gac's town too.

Let's look at things.

For these I am assuming worst case scenario for town performance (all mislynch and wolf night kill always works) and 3 wolves. I don't think the premise will change with 4 wolves though specifics might. Also assuming the inactives are town.

Spoiler: No-Autolynch

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Day 1 14-3
Day 2 12-3
Day 3 10-3
Day 4 8-3
Day 5 6-3
Day 6 4-3 (Lynch or Lose)

Spoiler: Current Auto lynch with a mislynch today

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Day 1 14-3
Day 2 12-3
Day 3 7-3
Day 4 5-3
Day 5 3-3 (Lynch or Lose or straight loss depending on how ties are ran)

Spoiler: Lynching an Inactive

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Day 1 14-3
Day 2 12-3 (wasted day)
Day 3 8-3
Day 4 6-3
Day 5 4-3 (Lynch or Lose)

So optimal we have 6 days if there were no inactives.

Either auto lynch situation gives us 5 days.

Technically depending on tie rules, we might be down to four if we lynch a townie today. But since today is functionally wasted if we focus on lynching an inactive instead of talking it's pretty comparable.

It's actually closer to the same than I thought. But still if it's essentially the same, I'm a fan of the one that doesn't involve us spending a whole day not voting and instead trying to lynch an inactive.

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Also I could have made mistakes. I encourage others to fact check me because I already made one mistake initially that I fixed before posting.

Mostly mechanics. I don't think it really said anything new, so it might just be wolfy filler.

Rogan: Honestly Rogan came out swinging. First post, before even voting they weighed in on plans and the like. I wish it was less mechanical but what was there to go on at that point. Was one of the first people to double vote and their first vote wasn't entirely random like most of us. Talked a lot about how the princess role should or does work. Did a lot of pushing for people to talk. Particularly me. Repeatedly pointed out something i have decided to agree with, that voting inactive people doesn't help unless you are trying to pressure them. Overall I'm not sure what led to initial suspicion of them. They are one of the more active posters and while they seem to fixate a lot on Popo and AV, their pushing for participation is a pro. Their having reasons behind nearly every vote is a pro. Not being afraid to push starting a wagon is a pro. Most of it seemed positive. The only thing that really stood out is the fact that they had a running list of "people I won't vote at this time" and it consisted of very little information. Some had small reasons and others were silly things like enjoying Xi's RP.

Seems fairly similar to my own thoughts on Rogan, though another similarity to myself is that it's rather wish-washy which I guess could be wolfy (but know it doesn't have to be).

Mainly because I as tired and hadn't decided who I did want to vote for so I left that for morning. Now that Emmy has shown up however, care to weigh in? With anything other than a last minute claim to try to save your skin I mean?

Voted Emmy fairly late in the game so it could be bussing.

Okay I'm trying to think of who all is claimed.

Libro
Snow?
Emmy
Batcathat

Not sure if Snow actually is one or who the 5th one is but of the three I'm confident in:

Libro counter claimed. Not a bad move. Would have been better if it had worked like normal and led to a lynch of a wolf.

Emmy claimed presumably to avoid being lynched? Though honestly it didn't help their case much for me.

Batcathat claimed in the interest of trying to confirm a townie claim. Might not be the best move (especially since nobody was actively doubting it that I've noticed) but isn't a bad move per se.

Of those three the most suspicious claim that I can see is Emmy but mainly because it seems like a weird night action as well as a weird and unhelpful first post.

Keeping track of claims makes sense from either alignment, I think.

And yeah, it turned out to be a very bad move, for unexpected reasons.

Top town reads (in order most to least)

Libro: Probably doesn't need explaining.

Batcathat: They sit well with me. They feel like they are contributing and nothing has marked as looking potentially bad. Most other people that I have a townie feel about have at least some stuff making me go "but... They could be a wolf" and I haven't had those moments with BCH.

Rogan: When I finally got around to them, I was looking for what evidence lead Blade to say we should look into them. I didn't spot any. Maybe I missed it or something but I have a good feeling about them. They might actually deserve the second spot. It's another instance of them giving me a good feeling and me liking what they have been contributing without any real strong "this seems odd" moments.



Top wolf reads (in order of most to least)

Emmy: Not showing up wouldn't be that bad but given what little and weirdness was provided when they did show up just seems... Terrible.

Snowblaze: Snow is playing different this time. I'm struggling to place exactly what it is but normally they seem pushier. Maybe they backed off because of the presence of Popo and all that but it doesn't sit right with me. They normally are pushy (in a good way... I know the wording might sound negative) even when they are a wolf. So it's just all around weird.

Book Wombat: they are acting pretty normal for them but normal for them is still not very helpful. They don't weigh in much and when they do, it's not very helpful.



Other notable town read/wolf read:

AV/Mr. Popo: These are both the type of players that based on their behavior I want to put as town and on anyone else I'd probably have locked them in for sure. But they are also the type that I either know (AV) or suspect (Mr. Popo) could pull off looking just as townie as a wolf. So I think they are good to keep around because they stir conversation but because of their specific styles I feel they are equally likely to be wolves as town.

Fairly similar to what I thought at the time, though probably uncontroversial and obvious enough that it might be a wolf trying to look solvy.

Also.. if you don't want to do all the searching... Just click replies ###### (some number) on the thread. It brings up a list telling you who has posted how many times. If you click the number next to the name in question it will show your all of their posts and only their posts.

I do appriciate the effort of trying to help me, even if AV had already included the method.

I had a moment of great confusion when I realized that RA hadn't been autolynched, until I remembered that they have until the end of the night.

Probably neutral, though I guess a wolf might be actively looking forward to a townie autolynch and reacting more quickly when it doesn't seem to happen.

There are a lot of long posts to read so that will have to wait until after work. Until then... I had a full plan for today centered around Me. Popo's death but now I don't know how to spend the day. I guess I'll see why Bat is suddenly suspect number one and go from there. This seems like it is going to turn out to be quite an interesting day.

Could be a wolf trying to rub in that they certainly didn't know who was going to get night killed. Otherwise pretty neutral.

Okay I read most of AV's thing and realized I have questions about the prince.

If their are two unused roles and always will be two unused roles, which one does the prince target get? Or does the prince choose which of the two? Or are we saying that the prince power works exactly twice and never again?

Mechanics.

Assuming that it switches as stated and it's

Unused Power A
Unused Power B

And The prince power goes ABABABAB

You are right.

But again, the example uses one unused power. So there is also always the chance that the answer to the question of A or B is random. Which means theoretically one of the two is not in play.

However even with that being the case, I don't think there is any grounds to suspect Libro. Because if it's random and not patterned ABAB, then no countess would require AAA for the three uses so far. This seems unlikely to me, even in the most optimistic/pessimistic.

More mechanics. "Clearing" Libro for fairly non-existent suspicions could be wolfy. Yes, that's pretty much exactly what I was accused of.

Ah I see. I haven't fully caught up on the day yet. This post just caught my eye. That does increase the chances of a random feed resulting in Libro not being called out. However it would completely depend on the super unlikely scenario where the countess wasn't in use and (if we assume Emmy was telling the truth about her use) Xi to be the prince. If he's anything else now then either Emmy lied (quite possible but another prince could have called her out at this point and even if they did, I'm not sure it eliminations either other option), Snow lied (also possible if snow is wolf) or Libro is telling the truth. So I'm still well in camp of Libro being honest unless someone flips countess.

Mostly more of the above.

I'm actually struggling to think of a time this wasn't my actual success... Except when I'm low on noise too.



Okay I'll go ahead and make a list too since everyone else is...

Libro
Rogan
Xi
AV
Mr. Popo
Supagoof
Snowblaze
Batcathat

Though the last one is really me following with things. I'm still surprised that Supagoof and Snow aren't our top suspects. Especially since Mr. Popo had so adamantly been sure that Snow and Supagoof were the next two to be killed no matter what, with the possible exception of Book. I know why book is no longer on the table but still.

Voting me (even if changed later) while sort of questioning the lynch could be a wolf trying to look better after I flip.

I'll finish catching up tonight and either conceed the point or make a new case.

Did gac ever get back to this point? Doesn't really point in either direction, I guess.

Until Mr. Popo told me that they were going to die as if it was gospel truth, I wasn't going to use my power on me last night.

I suppose this could be a defense of Xi and/or Snow.

As for revealing me, eh. At this point I was on the fence about just saying it anyways. Now I don't have to decide.

My original plan was "Mr. Popo seems town and better than me. QT with him night one. Night two: link Mr. Popo with whoever they want." But Mr. Popo was convinced they would die and gave me a whole bunch of stuff I was supposed to post today. So I connected you to me instead.

This seems reasonable.

That's true enough. That's actually where I shine. Coordinating. Getting people to trust me one on one. Sorting through lies a comparing individual notesm. Open QT games are when I end up most dangerous to wolves. With this recent push to encourage moving away from those, my underdeveloped skill in playing the traditional way is becoming more obvious.

That said, between a busy week or so keeping me less caught up than I usually like and the actual limits of the power meaning I'll probably functionally get 3ish QTs max, it seemed prudent to pick strong traditional playing townie and try to form a network around them.

I'm always in favor of bragging a little about things you do well. Probably doesn't say much about alignment though.

Hey big question: Snow used their power to change Xi night 2 right? Am I remembering that wrong?

If honest, I suppose this feels towny (as a wolf would probably keep better track of what happens to their buddies).

Double checking Rogans claims list, it looks like I am remembering it wrong.

In the end neither answer makes it seem less suspicious. Because either:

It happened M2 (not the case) and they couldn't possibly be Baron.

Or it happened N1, in which case they have had the role for a long time, which feels like it decreases the chances of forgetting the name.

Could a wolf trying to look solvy but arguing against two different defenses for Xi does seem a little exessive from a wolf.

Less that they wanted to fake claim but more... It kind of depends on set up. I see it more likely Xi would mistakenly say guard if there was a wolf who was also a guard and they just had all their roles lumped together in their mind than if they are town and saw Baron on their thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, it's snows fault you had to remember the name of Dionysus's wife. Not me.

- - - Updated - - -

The key here being which scenario seems more likely.

Spoiler: Town Xi

Show

You are now the Baron.

*A few days later* I'm the guard guys.... Wait no... The Baron.

Spoiler: Wolf Xi

Show

Xi is now the Baron.
Emmy is now the guard.

*A few days later* I'm the guard guys... Wait no... The Baron

More the same.

Wait... Was it even Snow? I don't remember who made up a fake claim but they definitely included the weird name.

- - - Updated - - -

Also I went back because I remember Xi being one of the people who kept saying "kill the silent" and voting Emmy. I was hoping to see evidence there of either active bussing the ally or distancing or being a townie or anything but there wasn't as much there as I thought there would be. Xi definitely voted Emmy day one and day two. The only thing that stood out about it is that if wolf, they would have known Emmy wouldn't auto lynch and so it would have made sense to push "kill the silent on RA" but that's flimsy enough that I don't think it's worth much.

Slight defense of Xi.

Only two barons right? And we can account for three Baron Actions. N1: Gac3/Popo; N2: Gac3/AV, Xi/Snowblaze

With the fourth potential use presumably being not there because the role was unused and given to Xi night one.

So the only way I know of for AV and Popo to have a private comm is if they are W/W

Feels pretty towny. I guess he could be trying to throw some suspicions against AV and Popo but if so it's very slight and probably nothing.

I agree on AV/Mr. P being T/T but also conceed that if they are both wolves, they deserve the win probably

Probably supports the earlier comment not being serious suspicions against AV and Popo.

I honestly might have missed is but I don't think so. I genuinely think this is he nail in Xi's coffin for me... They haven't told anyone to kill them yet.

- - - Updated - - -

This may seem like a joke point or something but it genuinely is just a Xi tell. The last time I noticed that Xi didn't say "Kill me" or self vote, they were a wolf and didn't say it until we pointed out that it was out of character. It also makes sense from a game strategy perspective. Mislynches honestly aren't that terrible of a thing as long as they provide some kind of useful information. Town as individuals shouldn't be most concerned with surviving till the end of game (if they want to win I mean) but rather getting things going. Xi and AV particularly are good about embracing that philosophy. That victory does not require their survival. It's why they so frequently have self vote moments. For wolves though, the whole issue is flipped. Victory depends entirely on you not getting caught and killed. So the number one thing you do is try to avoid that for as long as possible. I think this is why Xi either intentionally or unintentionally leaves out that part of their play style when a wolf. The problem is, it can be a pretty indicative tell when they make such a habit of it, so it we can't bank on it because that's when Xi can start changing their behavior to fool us. As a whole though, it does seem to be fairly consistent the times I've paid attention so far.

An interesting observation but at this point in the game, I don't think it leans either way.

Weird question, does anyone have an explanation for why the wolves killed Book? My best theory is "let's try to hit the princess since we don't know who she is"

Could be trying to emphasize that he certainly doesn't know why the wolves pick their victim.

On the bright side my paranoia that Mr. Popo might have been a wolf playing us is gone.

I'll vote here in a little. I know it's for sure going to be one of a few people but I am planning to include my updated reads list with the vote so I need to put that together.

Waiting to vote could be a wolf wanting to see how things turn out, but I think at this point it was already leaning heavily towards me so I guess just not going with that might be towny?

Yeah. I'll check that and see. I'll probably post it all even though some of it is outdated by a day due to the events of yesterday

Could be a wolf knowing Popo's messages will just lead town astray, I suppose.

I'm down. Bat/Supagoof is the same to me. Rogan and Snow have I have a town lean for now. Even though until yesterday snow was one of biggest wolf reads. I have no intention of voting AV. Is that everyone? Is anyone else alive? I mean there's Gac3 and I'd rather not vote him but we can afford some mislynches as of last time I did some math.

Voting either me or Goof is certainly something a wolf might do but it's also reasonable picks from a town perspective.

Ah right. I'm less likely to vote them than you. So the rest of my stuff holds true.

With his activity level and confirmed towniness, overlooking Libro seems reasonable from either alignment.

Also... I've seen a lot of comments about "Supagoof flipping red doesn't clear Gac3" which kind of confused me. Is there a reason it would? Are we unpaired by something for some reason? If I were not me, I would probably be more suspicious of me if Supagoof flips red (assuming that doesn't end the game, confirming a fourth wolf).

Saying he'd look more suspicious if Goof flipped red knowing he'd flip blue, maybe?

Between whatever this is and the fact that "I scried Gac3 as baron" could easily be "my buddy Gac3 is the Baron and I know this to be true", really seems to show that we might have been in communication. However all baron chats are accounted for and that would only leave wolf chat. Since we know Popo wasn't a wolf and couldn't have shared this info, it reads to me like me and Goof are wolf buddies. The only reason I'm not slinging accusations to the effect is because I'm me and I know my alignment so... Moral of the story is neither flip would clear me, but especially not red.

More of the same.

I ended up with quite a few "This could have been a wolf who..." but nothing solid in either direction. If I had to go on the ISO alone I would probably lean a little wolfy on gac, but AV's defense of him is stronger than anything I found so with that in mind I don't think he is (unless AV is too).

[AvatarVecna]

I ended up with quite a few "This could have been a wolf who..." but nothing solid in either direction. If I had to go on the ISO alone I would probably lean a little wolfy on gac, but AV's defense of him is stronger than anything I found so with that in mind I don't think he is (unless AV is too).

I do wanna address this point a bit, actually: if the scumteam is gac3/AV, game is unwinnable for town without Rogan. If today had started with "I am scum, so is gac3, now let's vote BCH", and then gac also votes BCH...even if you and Snow both vote me, you're both guards, while gac and I aren't guards. We can't get lynched on ties.

Since I want to encourage effort, though, let's point thoughts in a different direction: you wanna make a case on gac3, then you need a plausible explanation for why he would give me the Handmaid power on purpose last night. Could you see scum doing that, under any circumstances? Put the theory out there and we'll see how sound it seems to the rest of us.

[Batcathat]

Since I want to encourage effort, though, let's point thoughts in a different direction: you wanna make a case on gac3, then you need a plausible explanation for why he would give me the Handmaid power on purpose last night. Could you see scum doing that, under any circumstances? Put the theory out there and we'll see how sound it seems to the rest of us.

No, not really. That's why I landed on gac likely not being a wolf (unless you are too). But I suppose you have a good point, I might as well put some more thought into it. With the case against me resting a lot on BW and I acting in ways that didn't really make sense, I would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of gac doing something that on the surface seems very unlikely.

[AvatarVecna]

No, not really. That's why I landed on gac likely not being a wolf (unless you are too). But I suppose you have a good point, I might as well put some more thought into it. With the case against me resting a lot on BW and I acting in ways that didn't really make sense, I would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of gac doing something that on the surface seems very unlikely.

Yeah. Honestly the main thing I'd worry about for today is that nobody challenged anything for fear of looking wolfy, and that means there's only one pair of eyes considering all the possibilities instead of three or four, and that means things are getting missed. If we lynch you today, and you're town, and there's two scum, we lose. If you're so sure that you're not scum, please help us find who is.

[Batcathat]

Yeah. Honestly the main thing I'd worry about for today is that nobody challenged anything for fear of looking wolfy, and that means there's only one pair of eyes considering all the possibilities instead of three or four, and that means things are getting missed. If we lynch you today, and you're town, and there's two scum, we lose. If you're so sure that you're not scum, please help us find who is.

I'd love to, though I'm not all that confident in my ability to do so at the moment (though I suppose I at least have a slightly different perspective). I should be able to look closer at Snow and Rogan too before end of day (in-game day, I'm not sure how much more time I'll have today) and I'll think about possible motives for a wolfy gac.

But for now I'm off to a meeting (well, it's on Zoom, so I'm not really off anywhere). Hopefully I have time to switch mindset, I don't think my colleagues would like it if I kept accusing them of lying and trying to deceive me instead of leading the meeting.

[AvatarVecna]

BCH: "As far as I know, any one of you could be lying scum plotting to murder me! Well I'm not fooled, I'll either get you first or take you with me!"

Coworkers, who are not playing WW:

[Snowblaze]

In my case it's more "I haven't challenged anything because I've been frantically scrambling around trying to do urgent IRL stuff". But, as promised, I'm now present.

...right, what's my next move? I should probably try and rule out an AV/Rogan team to make sure we're not going to lose by killing Batcathat here.

...and immediately my motivation is gone. Forcing myself to do it anyway, because possible LyLo.

[AvatarVecna]

In my case it's more "I haven't challenged anything because I've been frantically scrambling around trying to do urgent IRL stuff". But, as promised, I'm now present.

...right, what's my next move? I should probably try and rule out an AV/Rogan team to make sure we're not going to lose by killing Batcathat here.

...and immediately my motivation is gone. Forcing myself to do it anyway, because possible LyLo.

Oh boy somebody suspecting me just to be thorough. That's good! That's a mindset you need at LYLO. Looking forward to your findings.

I will point out though: if you're willing to suspect me, you'd also need to consider the gac possibilities as well, since he's only cleared on my word, and AV/gac would be similarly disastrous.

Best of luck with motivation. I know Full well how this game can just suck you dry if you live too long. >.<

[Snowblaze]

Note to self: check AV/gac at some point (probably IRL tomorrow).

Up to page five so far, I'd forgotten the whole thing with Rogan voting for you day one. ...eh, it could be early distancing but it's a weird way to go about it.

Also just as I'd convinced myself that Batcathat was a more likely wolf than Rogan I start suspecting large parts of Rogan's day one.

...maybe it's both of them. Another note to self: check out BCH/Rogan interactions, especially on day three.

Back to work, yay.

[AvatarVecna]

Up to page five so far, I'd forgotten the whole thing with Rogan voting for you day one. ...eh, it could be early distancing but it's a weird way to go about it.

I feel ya. Honestly I basically ignore people's first D1 votes unless they gave actual reason for it. Early D1 is basically a series of ****posts until somebody says something weird and the chaos begins.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, there's been remarkably little AV/Rogan interaction this game. Which is why I've already got up to Rogan's last post. Well, either that or I was just mindlessly scrolling and not actually taking anything in.

I haven't found any conclusive evidence that AV/Rogan are unpaired. Closest I could get is the day one stuff, but distancing is possible.

When I have motivation, I'll go back and look at day two to try and untangle Rogan/BCH stuff then.

(If I try and do anything more now I'll fall asleep at the keyboard. Actually, I could do some vote count stuff - oh, right, we've had pretty consensus lead wagons every day. That won't tell me much.)

- - - Updated - - -

Day One wasn't entirely consensus, actually:

JeenLeen (5): BatCatHat, Snowblaze, bladescape, AvatarVecna, Rogan
Mr. Popo (3): Libro, JeenLeen, Book Wombat
gac3 (2): Xihirli, Mr. Popo
EmmyNecromancer (1): gac3
BatCatHat (1): Supagoof

Strangely enough, I think there might have been a wolf or two voting for Jeen day one. That was less informative than I hoped.

[gac3]

Night actions have me far less willing to read gac3 as scum. Worlds where gac is scum require him to be extremely cocky about today's lynch.

I don't know why but the last line of this made me laugh. Maybe because I was like "man... That would be a badass move if it was true"

This made me a little paranoid about a possible AV/gac pairing. It's probably not that likely (though I'll keep in mind when ISOing gac) but if it is what's happening, we're probably screwed.

Honestly, I handed AV the handmaiden power and I'm still back of the head paranoid that AV has won this for the wolves and we are just missing it. Unlikely but still, my head holds onto it.

Yeah, that does seem odd. So assuming that there isn't any wolfy reason for that and assuming a wolfy Snow didn't bus Xi for basically no reason instead of letting me get mislynched I suppose that only leaves Rogan, which only requires my read on him to be wrong.

Of course, this all assumes you're honest. I do mostly lean towards town on you but I also do that on Rogan and it's starting to look like I'm wrong about one of you.

Need to think and ISO on this.

I don't remember why I quoted this... I may revisit...

Spoiler: ISO concluded

Show

I have trouble believing that Snowblaze got this many posts into D3 before realizing the BCH case. I'm more inclined to think this is scum seeing a case against a scumbuddy, panicking, and BS posting for a bit to remain active while trying to figure out if she should bus BCH or not. This is pairing evidence.



Took Xi's claim at face value despite being Baron'd with Xi the previous night. I still think it's weird that Snow didn't even consider how strange it is for baron to link two players when the Baron is neither of those players...or rather, didn't consider it until I called it out.



This is probably NAI. If I were acting on the assumption that BCH is scum, I'd say this indicates BCH/Snow: BCH knows they're caught at this point, and is just trying to anti-spew scumbuddies a bit. Be vague about Xihirli, and distance from Snow. Not new opinions, just a way to make the read list look more like analysis than it is. But that's probably just being paranoid.



Could easily be read as screaming about the two claims semi-contradicting each other, enough that it tweaked my scumdar.



Like seriously, this is Snow's next post. Not even acknowledging that I said I'm not counterclaiming Popo, Snow is more concerned about the new inconsistency pointed out between her claim and Xi's. This feels like a wolf that got caught lying with a scumbuddy and now has to choose between bus or get bussed.



IIoA.



I've commented on how this case had flaws in it, that were outweighed by "why even lie about it", but let's detail out those issues:

Spoiler: Flaws

Show

1) Guard is a nice safe claim to make; Prince has to be accountable for their actions, whereas Guard is a step up from vanillager. If somebody came asking "why did I get Prince'd", Emmy would need to explain herself. Nobody is going to wonder why Emmy targeted somebody with the guard power.

2) Prevailing theory is that scumteam knew Emmy's goose was cooked about halfway through N1 when Popo and I were calling her out. If someone dies, the role is lost forever, but if they get Prince'd, the role goes into the unused pile. Emmy self-targeting could've been scumteam's way of keeping both Princes in-play (sort of in-play) to cause more chaos down the line, rather than being lost forever. Backfired on them because double-prince got me the handmaid power last night.



Technically speaking, you didn't know that Emmy got a Guard N1. Emmy claims she was Prince N1, and I claimed I saw Emmy target herself, but as BCH pointed out, I could've been lying for some reason. Sure, at this point in the game we know what was in the unused pile because now it's in play, but at the time Snowblaze made this plan, anything other than "Emmy was a guard when she died" was pure speculation based on the word of confirmed scum Emmy and always-suspicious AV.



I generally think most players would prefer to give themselves a QT, but that doesn't mean I can't imagine a world where they'd do otherwise (especially after gac pointed out he wasn't intending to connect himself to anybody N2 initially). I can see somebody who maybe doesn't trust their own reads or analysis or strength in private conversation, who is townreading Snow and Xi, and decides to lynch them. Or rather, at the time I considered that as a possibility - now I know that Xi was indeed the Baron. But still, at the time, it was a definite possibility that just gets glossed over. I can fully admit I was wrong in that nobody would ever Baron two people when they were neither.

Also...Mr Popo spouting off, and gac having a semi-negative opinion does not equal "widely suspected". You were generally getting townread, it's not as weird that somebody would want you networked as you're making it out to be.



I can't give Snow flak for assuming this, since it's a good assumption, but technically D2, it's entirely possible that half the claimants were lying, and it so happened that the web of lies only appeared to have a single impossibility in it. Up until we got way more flips and confirmed half those claims, though, it's entirely possible they were lying and the baron wasn't one of the guard claimants.



This part was true, no edge cases I need to point out here.

That's a lot of weird little edge cases that didn't get attention drawn to them.



"Oh boy, a wagon that isn't me! I'll just not point out any of the weird edge cases that weaken the argument, except the one that let's me accuse AV of lying since that weakens their case against me!"

Is this a townie trying to help solve the game even if it means they get mislynched along the way?



IIoA except for the part where they very lightly defend Xihirli despite voting her. Rogan did this a lot D3, which I still don't like.



Could easily be distancing from Xi now that somebody else started a wagon on Xi. Snow at least was bussing by making a case, rather than supporting somebody else's case. I don't think this is evidence for or against a Rogan/Snow w/w pairing, though.



Very slight townie points for this. I think if scum had already gotten caught about scrying Libro, they would pick a better cover story than "I tried to hunt for the princess last night, but I'm town I swear". Could be an attempt at TWTBW?



To clarify, this is Rogan's response to me saying "I suspect Rogan of lying the least" and Rogan is getting defensive? Why?



This still looks so shifty. "I did this in PJ, so I'm not sure why scum!Xi would do it here" except Snow was scum in PJ. Snow knows full well from 1st hand experience that scum is fully capable of screwing up a claim like this, and yet she seems willing to give Xi a bit of towncred for it. NAGL.



List of claims, but it also comes with some analysis and a really good questions. Slight townie points to Rogan for this.



Good evidence for a Snow/Bat pairing. If one of them flips scum and game isn't over, it's probably the other one. D3 really is starting to feel like it was scum!Bat caught until I came an inch from catching scum!Snow and/or scum!Xi too, so scum!Snow made a case on Xi before I could put the pieces together for myself. Posts like this following the day up just make me feel more confident in that read.



I still maintain that calling this post out as weird and not very helpful at all is a good take from Rogan. But I can also admit that, following Supagoof's flip, it doesn't look quite as good. Wouldn't be difficult for scum to call out a townie being shifty for no reason.



Rogan defending Xi while voting Xi.



Subtle defense of Xi by pointing out Popo did the same thing, sort of.



Town points for this plan to get handmaid back in townie hands. I don't see scum pointing this out to town, even in a spoiler - more likely, they'd let the possibility go unmentioned hoping town hasn't realized that possibility.



The game doesn't feel solved unless you're scum - then, or now.



NAI. Could be read as distancing or just townie doing the right thing. If I were inclined to read this as w/w, it would be that the towny move is to immediately vote BCH and then figure out suspicions elsewhere, and scum's top priority is looking towny. But that's assuming guilty until proven innocent.



A couple hours ago I gave BCH townie points for making a case on Rogan that scum would never make ("nobody died in the night so it must be rogan" even though somebody had died in the night). Scum trying to save themselves doesn't make that weak of an argument for another person's lynch. Same slight townie points for this post, for the same reason. I'm still not happy about BCH grasping at every possible straw for salvation, but they're doing so in a way that scum wouldn't.



Once again, a day where BCH looks screwed no matter what, so if they're scum, anything they do could be trying to keep us from finding their scumbuddies next. This could easily be distancing.



And this immediate reply that has BCH not even really at the bottom of Snow's suspect list doesn't look good in the context of that possible distancing.



Adding this just for some reason to trust gac3 that isn't "AV said so": everything here oozes Popo energy, it'd be very difficult for gac to fake Popo's style if he wanted to manipulate us that way (and scum would certainly want to). This feels extremely genuine, so I'm inclined to trust gac based off it.



"Oh look, a plausible reason to not vote my scumbuddy BCH"



Now that it's tomorrow, though, I'm sure BCH doesn't feel like dying for town anymore.



...slight town points for this, but it's a little convoluted: I think scum would overthink this post, and wouldn't want to say "I feel like a disney villain!" That part of the post would get excised out before the post was actually submitted.



BCH knows I basically can't be convinced of BCH/Rogan, and also knows that Snow can't be convinced of Snow/Rogan, so BCH suggests Rogan/gac as the remaining possibility. I now have good reason to not ever vote gac.



Snowblaze confirming the implications of my previous statement: BCH's only chance is convincing Snowblaze on Rogan/gac3, which Snowblaze has as not w/w and has had as such for days. Granted, I don't think the reasons for that clear are very solid, but still.

If there's a single wolf, here's my reads:

• gac3: cleared based on Handmaid help
• Rogan: If rogan was absent, who did the kill? Granted, he could've logged into QT without logging into the forum, so this point isn't that strong, but he's still the weakest scumlean right now.
• Snowblaze: Lot of suspicious stuff in the ISO
• Batcathat: A textbook case of a caught wolf refusing to shut up and proving they only care about their own survival

If there's two wolves left, here's my thoughts on that:

• Rogan/Snowblaze: While a number of things in the ISO support this pairing, there's one post from Rogan and one post from Snowblaze that are very much unpairing evidence, in a "no way would they have made this post if they were scumbuddies"
• BCH/Rogan: Initially I refused to consider this pairing because I'd've expected surrender, but there's nothing in the ISO that contradicts it.
• BCH/Snowblaze: A good bit of the ISO makes more sense if these two are connected, particularly the weirdness with how D3 went down.

I'm going to go ahead and vote Batcathat but I'm worried I'm making a mistake and the real answer is that the only remaining scum is Snowblaze.

- - - Updated - - -



It might just be confirmation bias, but it feels like I used to see your posts occasionally, and now you're everywhere and also you're always pushing the same angle (which is "lynch anybody else for any possible reason").

It may also be a case of not just confirmation bias but they may look more active now, since activity in general is less than it was.