A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #91
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I am a little fuzzy on the math, but in a 14'er like this, 8 townies may not be sufficient because it is only one more than half, and one of those rounds come endgame is no arrest and wait in the worst possible case scenario.

    So you need an extra villager because of the extremely pro-disloyal even number advantage the traitorous maggots have.

    I have 9 townies instead of 8, which means you can no arrest later in the game if I was extremely wrong.

    As long as all 9 of those names are town we win.

    If someone wants to tell me which if any of those names are not town I am now open to hearing that, as a conversation starter.

    I have proposed a theory. Now, as my peers, you review it, and tell me why it is wrong if it is.

    Being a fair judge here, I probably have gac3 too high and that one is probably the only actual danger of going deep, because I wanted a 9th name and was excited to think of a reason why gac was town.

    - - - Updated - - -



    This is my methodology and applies to my reads and my role this game.

    Spoiler
    Show
    Everyone else can do as they will, but I intend to convince all of you that the blues are town and not to be touched, and the teals are beyond consideration for the foreseeable future unless I am very wrong.

    You can consider the blue names in the event the POE (process of elimination) list hits townies a lot. Never is a long time and also not applicable when the POE is very wrong.

    Otherwise, you do not rearrange the POE without extremely strong reasons.

    It forces the disloyal people into the uncomfortable position of needing to murder people who are not optimal murders simply because they can't arrest them.



    Since I have claimed two roles it seems silly to counterclaim me as I am obviously lying about one or both claims. Besides, I also claimed a role that isn't even in the game.

    No town points for it anymore, but people can tell me why I did that if they want.


    I strongly encourage everyone not to follow that plan, but you're all autonomous beings.


    Generally you need positive reasons why someone is guilty as opposed to a lack of reasons why they are innocent, because I am afraid innocent people are often not particularly good at generating bulletproof reasons why they are town.

    Particularly when they aren't here.


    In addition to being lock town when Vecna is not, you are also independently villagery for your distrust of me in particular and suspicion that I have falsely claimed and that it must be wolfy of me. You remind me of nearly everyone I have ever met who has played with me for the first time.



    BatCatHat is snug as a bug in a rug in my town list. There is just no disloyal agenda about any of their posts.



    This is a guessing game. It's better to be lucky and accurate than skilled and whiffing it.



    Despite an extreme difference in styles, you can be the lawful Rogan to my chaotic Popo.

    You shall be the paladin in shining armor who fights evil the proper way, and I shall be the distrustful sneaky rogue that sneaks up behind evil liches and stabs them with magic daggers.

    While they're busy fighting you properly I will make them regret looking at you at all.


    Meanwhile, if all votes on Libro could vanish, that'd be pretty gosh darned swell.
    I am not sure about the math either. Worst case (misslynch and nightkill each day) would be:
    14 Players, 11 good, 3 bad. D1
    12 Players, 9 good, 3 bad. D2
    10 Players, 7 good, 3 bad. D3
    8 Players, 5 good, 3 bad. D4

    6 Players, 3 good, 3 bad. D5 (Depending on the roles, this might be game over)

    Now, this worst case is very, very unlikely to happen. There is a chance of handmaiden saves. And of course, getting no Wolf at all does not seem to be that likely either.

    For most of us, there are 12 players to worry about. (No need to worry about the Princess, as soon as she claims; no need to worry about yourself)
    4 missed lynches could be game over. So 12-3 means 9 persons you need to correctly identify as town.


    So, I think we are on the same page here. But I am a bit sceptical about one thing:
    You need to be right about those 9 Persons. If there is only one traitor and you are not willing to reevaluate? You have lost before the game is over. Thats a bit scary, in my oppinion.
    Therefore, I would like to avoid locking somebody as town this early. But as long as you are willing to change your mind when new evidence arrives, I'm fine with your current list.

    About your Role and Snows Plan... I might have an idea what you mean, but I might be wrong. And I will try to keep my mouth shut about this idea, unless someone else would realy like to talk about it.

    And I totaly agree, it's much better to be right for the wrong reasons, than to be wrong for whatever the reasons may be. But the best thing seems to be getting the right answer for the right reasons.

    But yeah, despite those differences in style, I am looking forward to solving this mystery on your side.

    But now, I think I will have to go to bed. 1:45AM... Good day / night / whatever the time of the day it might be where you live. This is for everybody. Except the traitors. They won't have a good night, now that their leader, the evil queen was arrested.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  2. - Top - End - #92
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Very quickly:

    I have the same thought you have about there being 3 traitors, but to my dismay, I cannot remember where I read that or if I even did read it.

    The OP also suggests it can be 3 4 or 5.

    I literally had the same certainty you do about it being 3, so this is explicitly not an accusation of perfect info.

    Rogan, where were we told it was 3? We had to have been told it was three, right?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also it is 2am here as well and I am in for a miserable day if I dont get a 4 hour nap.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    So, I think we are on the same page here. But I am a bit sceptical about one thing:
    You need to be right about those 9 Persons. If there is only one traitor and you are not willing to reevaluate? You have lost before the game is over. Thats a bit scary, in my oppinion.
    Therefore, I would like to avoid locking somebody as town this early. But as long as you are willing to change your mind when new evidence arrives, I'm fine with your current list.
    Things you can tell from my posts already:

    1) I am confident in my abilities and I have experience.
    2) I believe in this methodology and have probably used it many, many times before, and most of those times have to be successful in order for me to be both sane and confident it works.
    3) At the same time, yes, we will guess wrong in a guessing game. Therefore:

    I have used this methodology before and let a wolf into my town. Yep.

    That's happened. It's even happened a lot of times, in fact.

    In having tasted nasty defeat even after pouring out my guts trying to build town teams without infiltration, I have gotten smoked enough times to have the wisdom to know when the town pile is worthy of being protected and when the town pile has to be discussed.

    As indicated, you react to new (and therefore additional) info, by adding it together with what you already know, and you make better decisions based on the new, superior information.

    However, if I hit wolves repeatedly over the next round(s) with my suspicions, then alive or dead, I will continue to advise sticking to the POE for a while.

    Re-evaluate when things go full blown Yamcha, and probably not before.

    Things would have to go remarkably bad for blues to ever be considered here.

  3. - Top - End - #93
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BlackDragon

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Is this a counterclaim?
    Nope.

    This is:
    IC
    a figure rises from a chair near the fireplace.

    Away from my lands upon the shore
    I came to see niece and nephews fair.
    I am the Countess Eva VanMoore;
    for my brother’s children I deeply care.

    Imagine the weight upon my heart to find
    a family shattered by a mother’s scorn.
    What twisted workings of her addled mind,
    have left me naught to do but mourn?

    I had hoped to sit by the fire
    and ponder this sordid tale.
    But the bold speech of a liar
    stings like a southern gale.

    Of all the personas that could be thine,
    the worst of them to claim was mine.

    OOC
    Loosely based upon the format for an Elizabethan Sonnet, in honor of the Shakespearean theme.

    Mr Popo you have made an I’ll-advised gamble. The danger of claiming my role is right behind asiatic land wars and matching wits with Sicilians when death is on the line.
    "Ye are who ye are on all o' yer days. All o' em. Includin' that worst an' tha best. Ev'ry single one counts. All tha way ta tha end."

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  4. - Top - End - #94
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Eh, I was close to voting Mr. Popo before Libro posted. I would have if not that he's a new player (for some definition of 'new'), and there's a meta currently not to vote new (or returning players who are new to most folk here) D1, but evidence like a counterclaim is hard to ignore.
    And then Libro posted.

    Mr. Popo, any defense?
    For what it's worth, I buy you are experienced and a valuable asset to the Town when Town. You could well be a confident townie using a tested methodology, but I can also see a wolf counting on the meta and confidence to wade through this Day.

    Plus, if you flip wolf, lots of towncred to AV and your opposition to Snowblaze's plan makes it look more appealing.
    If you flip town and aren't the Countess, then, well... wish you hadn't claimed.
    If you flip town and are the Countess... well, I find that doubtful as it means Libro is a wolf throwing his life away D1.

    An oddity: the wolves, from what Cao said, know what Roles are inactive. So it seems odd to claim a Role like Countess or Princess where they can't be duplicates with the same Role. But maybe the wolves didn't communicate well, or wolf!Popo thought he could backtrack well enough on his claim, or just the oddness of the game/D1 would let it coast. An odd thing, to be sure, but I'm not sure how to factor it into my analysis or let it impact my vote.
    I'd appreciate others' thoughts, especially Mr. Popo's.

  5. - Top - End - #95
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Xihirli's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I wasn’t exactly keen on clerical work, so my co-workers and I would opt to sneak upstairs and watch the courtroom drama. Sometimes, if it was a boring case, as they often were, we would sneak up to the bell tower and get high or drunk instead–come to think of it, I don’t remember ever doing much paperwork.




    As much as I want to split Libro's head upon the rocks, the counterclaimer is usually right so let's kill Mr Popo... if such a feat can even be done.
    Last edited by Xihirli; 2021-09-11 at 07:41 AM.
    Spoiler: Quotes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  6. - Top - End - #96
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Well. I was really hoping that wouldn’t happen.

    (What is it about people fakeclaiming specifically Libro’s role? I mean, I’m assuming he’s the real Countess since it makes no sense otherwise.)

    So, uh... how does fakeclaiming Countess make any shred of sense for Mr Popo as any alignment? Based on his posts so far I think he’s crazy enough that there are worlds where he would do it as town. But...

    (*insert significant amounts of WIFOM that don’t get me any closer to a conclusion here*)

    ...let’s just say I would really appreciate an explanation.

    Will be afk for a few hours, but I’ll try and find some townreads when I get back.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  7. - Top - End - #97
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I once again insist that no one ever votes for Libro.

    I have to spell it out for people, because they are entirely too lawful for their own good.

    A) Snowblaze over there called for the Countess to claim

    That was a very bad idea.

    B) I claimed the count, I literally never claimed to be the "countess", check my wording in every post very carefully. I have also claimed to be the princess. The "count" literally does not exist in this game, that is the role I said I claimed that doesnt exist.

    C) THAT is breadcrumbing that I am NOT ACTUALLY THE COUNTESS so if the actual countess does this silly stuff and counterclaims me instead of reading between the lines and staying hidden, they can read my posts where I go "we should not mass claim" and "no one should counterclaim me" and "I am the count" and "the countess' identity will remain a mystery for the ages" and see what I was doing and actually shush their mouths.

    D) Libro counterclaims me because Libro doesn't understand I was saving their neck and drawing the murder.

    E) Therefore Libro is always town and is always the countess.

    F) Now help me destroy an actual wolf today so we can salvage the situation.


    This is a game where the wolves literally lie to us all day, every day.

    This is a game where the wolves would looooooooove to know where our important roles are.

    This is a game where someone asked for our importantest roles to claim.

    I took the bullet and then IMMEDIATELY SHUT THAT STUFF DOWN SO THE REST OF YOU WOULD NOT FOLLOW THAT PLAN.

    I said oh, thats me, what a coincidence, by the way, claiming in this setup is a super atrocious idea lets not do that, Snowblaze, as villagery as I think you are, my dear princess.

    And then I also said I was the princess.

    And then I also said nobody else should claim except our suspects.

    And then I also said I was lying about my claim, for the love of pete, which people would know if they bothered to read my posts.

    There's only 20 or so of them so there is literally no excuse.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Well. I was really hoping that wouldn’t happen.

    (What is it about people fakeclaiming specifically Libro’s role? I mean, I’m assuming he’s the real Countess since it makes no sense otherwise.)

    So, uh... how does fakeclaiming Countess make any shred of sense for Mr Popo as any alignment? Based on his posts so far I think he’s crazy enough that there are worlds where he would do it as town. But...

    (*insert significant amounts of WIFOM that don’t get me any closer to a conclusion here*)

    ...let’s just say I would really appreciate an explanation.

    Will be afk for a few hours, but I’ll try and find some townreads when I get back.
    This is a game where wolves lie to us all day, every day.

    I have made it abundantly clear that I'd take a bullet for any person I think is town, and that they should shut up and not claim at all.

    I have also made it super duper ultra mega hyper omega obvious that I believe lying to wolves is pro town, it's in at least half my posts in this game.

    I even said I was chaotic and a rogue who backstabs scums. Do you think I believe in the power of honesty?

    Seriously folks. If you won't lie to wolves, I can't save you from yourselves.

    Now destroy Vecna and jeen, in that order. For your sake as much as mine.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also, if you absolutely gotta see my role card flip today, ACCEPTED on the following condition:

    As soon as you see I am town, you

    1) immediately stop everything you are doing.
    2) think to yourself "I made an oopsie, I don't know what I am doing this game"
    3) you reread literally every post I made this game, in chronological order, slowly, and carefully.

    You do that, and I will vote MYSELF, right now.

    I have enough townies where you still win this game about 70 percent of the time, as silly as my own yeet is, I now have serious doubts you can get there without understanding my alignment.

  8. - Top - End - #98
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    So, uh... how does fakeclaiming Countess make any shred of sense for Mr Popo as any alignment? Based on his posts so far I think he’s crazy enough that there are worlds where he would do it as town. But...
    Well, my idea would be: Mr Popo didn't know if the countess was an active role or not.
    In order to still allow a somewhat strong town core, he faked the claim. This way, he would get a position of trust and protection.
    But this would be extremely dangerous if the princess revealed herself, thinking herself protected. So, why would Mr Popo do something like that? Well, he might be the only town person to know the princess wouldn't reveal herself.

    I guess, Mr Popo is the princess. Many other things would make sense as well.

    But I don't trust words at this point, unless those words are spoken by the narrator.
    So.... Mr Popo are you the princess? Please bold your answer, for narrator confirmation.
    Last edited by Rogan; 2021-09-11 at 06:29 AM. Reason: crossing my vote

  9. - Top - End - #99
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    No, I am one of the Priests.

    And here are my hidden notes so far, since I cant just post the link:

    "Ah, another glorious town rand. Popo is about to teach you the pecking order. It goes:

    (From least to greatest)

    1. Scum rand
    2. The dirt
    3. The worms inside of the dirt
    4. Popo's stool
    5. Town rand
    6. then Popo. :)
    "

    Next:

    "Okay, Snowblaze has a fairly smart idea and it is pretty townie of her.

    However I don't want to just hand the scums our Countess. I would rather take the hit and keep the Countess alive.

    I am forced to gamble the setup even has a Countess but I would prefer to be optimistic. Besides, if the scums believe I am the Countess then it should still delay the Princess' death.

    And it probably means I never die from a day execution, which is what I prefer as well.

    If someone counterclaims me I will drop the claim and lock them town. Same as I did before when I fake claimed masons on this site."

    Next

    "So Libro is the Countess and I have a ton of townies now.

    Game seems trivial so far, but I only have 2 suspects and there are 3 guilty persons.

    Because Libro is therefore town since he counterclaimed me, because a wolf just doesn't need to do that, and I am strongly gambling there is a Countess in the game, I have to expect that the odds are quite high that someone who voted Libro today is a wolf.

    Because 3 wolves in 14 names are going to vote for the 11 townies today a lot.

    Therefore, if 2 votes landed on Libro, one of them is scum an extraordinarily high amount of the time.

    It's sort of how I find wolf teams and mason teams. Wolves vote for masons a lot during day, particularly when the masons have not claimed.

    And of course, masons vote for wolf teams a lot, because masons have a higher chance of not misvoting due to their extra knowledge.

    Given my gambit, Libro is almost always town, and I am sort of now virtually their one way mason due to the gambit.

    I suggest that people who have suspected either me or Libro today are wolves a lot.

    Jeen and Vecna fit those profiles.

    If even one of those guesses is correct I almost always draw the murder away from our more important roles.

    When I die and flip town at night my lying to town was utterly irrelevant.

    If one of my suspects dies and flips wolf then I was worth my weight. Townies often need someone experienced to find wolves on day one, and due to Snowblaze's moves I feel like I got a lot of spew today.

    How people reacted to it all was very telling and alignment indicative.

    If my blues are all town we are in great shape, and if my teals are all town then all I need to do is double check them and convince everyone else my list is good.

    A dead wolf today and a dead me tonight plus actual arguments should probably convince people to follow the POE, and again, if the POE is right then town hits multiple wolves and almost always wins the game.

    Which is not bad for a day's work of being an evil genie."

    next:

    "It occurs to me I have assumed there are 3 guilty persons in a 13 to 14 player game, but on this site I have seen some awfully lopsided setups, and the OP says 3, 4, or 5 of all things. On a forum where people just plain don't post at all sometimes.

    If 5 is the case then town is probably doomed no matter what I do, and I am basically only playing for personal pride. "

    --------------------

    There ya go. All my secrets laid bare.

    Paladins.

    You honestly can't work with people that rigid and inflexible and unable to conceive of a world where it might be pro-town to be deceptive.

    Renegade for life.

  10. - Top - End - #100
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Still here. Still confused and paranoid.

    I think I townread Mr Popo but there’s at least one part of me that’s screaming that it’s a terrible idea and I shouldn’t do it.

    I’d be down to vote JeenLeen, they’re probably the closest thing to a wolfread I have rn.

    Now I actually need to go.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what I’m doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  11. - Top - End - #101
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Mr Popos post crossed mine. I think it's legit. I still want proof.

    This might not be the best move from a mechanical standpoint. But I think I have made my stance clear regarding the princess and soft claims.

    There is also another (small) danger. If there is no town Prince and the Princess is not in the game yet, soft claiming Princesss could go unnoticed.
    There are ways to check this, plus it's very unlikely. But I like to be paranoid about strange edge cases...

    (Currently writing from mobile, so please be patient... it might take longer than I like)
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  12. - Top - End - #102
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I...kinda agree with the guy voting me? I know the fluff of this game is that it's "princess loyalists" vs "queen loyalists", but the game isn't over when the princess dies, it's over when either queen supporters are all gone, or princess supporters are outnumbered. Centering town's whole strategy around "keep the princess alive" when there's multiple holes in that strategy (that you even pointed out yourself) isn't really the best place to put our energy into.

    The primary issue I see: Princess/Countess auto-counter King/Prince. If the King/Prince target Princess/Countess, their powers are wasted for that night. That's bad if they're town, but good if they're scum. Except those roles aren't just effectively roleblockers (or...the king is? the prince power sounds really similar, but doesn't explicitly act as a roleblock the way the king's does? what's up with that?), they're also changing the mindset of the targeted player. Whatever strategy a guard might have had, it might change at any moment. Whatever strategy a handmaid might have had, it could change at any moment.

    The King/Prince are chaos machines, and if they're townies, they've honestly most useful if they don't use their powers, at least until later in the game. It would aid the town!King or town!Prince to know who the Princess/Countess is, so they don't waste their night power, but at a point in the game where "using their night power" might itself be a mistake, it doesn't help those townie role-switchers to know who they can't target when they shouldn't be targeting anybody anyway. Meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, scum!King and scum!Prince absolutely want to use their powers to mess up town's plans because that maintains information advantage - the only hitch is that there's almost certainly two townies who will screw that "planned chaos" up: the Princess and Countess. If the princess and countess announce themselves, that helps the King and Prince not waste their power - which is a bad thing if King/Prince are scum.

    While there is potentially some advantage to be gained by getting baners able to coordinate around two outed players, that's only really a great idea of those two roles are vital to the win conditon...and they aren't. It sucks if the princess dies, but the game goes on, we don't automatically lose. If we tell the wolves who can't be role-switched and who probably has baners on them, then wolves just have to do WIFOM with the baners on whether they bane the princess/countess or somebody random...whereas if wolves aren't told who the Princess/Countess is, the wolves don't even have a solid idea on who has a good chance of being baned on a given night.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Therefore, if 2 votes landed on Libro, one of them is scum an extraordinarily high amount of the time.
    I suggest that people who have suspected either me or Libro today are wolves a lot.

    Jeen and Vecna fit those profiles.
    The logic here seems to be...

    "There would only be a wagon on Libro if wolves were making a wagon on him on purpose, after seeing what happened today".

    It kinda ignores that one of the votes on Libro went there before all the nonsense occurred. My Libro vote isn't because I saw all this stuff about claiming and counterclaiming and made a decision. It's because I default to inactive players D1, and that early in D1, the only way to make sure I vote an inactive is to vote somebody who is consistently intentionally inactive. Libro fits that to a T, so I threw a vote on when day started and then I left to go do other things. Leaving the vote on is because I wasn't here, not because I was lurking and hoping Libro would get lynched because of the counterclaim nonsense.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  13. - Top - End - #103
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    bladescape's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    JeenLeen

    (RP post delayed due to irl/distraction)
    "Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"




    My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!

  14. - Top - End - #104
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Another cross post. I still want a bolded princess claim.

    I think a Prist would have made a terrible move by claiming countess. Especially if it was posted AFTER Snow proposed her plan. The princess would feel fine about claiming and there would be nobody to protect her.

    There are other assumptions I don't like. The votes for libro came before the soft counter claim. I get flashbacks for PJ. It's like me, as vig shooting AV, the Seer night 1. Sure, it didn't look good for the me on first glance. But I had no way to know I would kill the Seer. (Okay, I could have trusted the Manson claim and ask him in private if I should shoot AV, but I didn't want to claim right away)
    Xi, the one player pushing a vig lynch, was a wolf.

    I continue to get bad impressions from you, Mr Popo. Some of them might be paranoia. But there are so many things speaking against you, I can not, in good faith, ignore them. Sorry.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  15. - Top - End - #105
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quick check of the posts in the thread indicates there's two people who haven't posted even placeholders yet, and neither of them is Libro. Will wonders never cease.

    I'm reading through the thread for scumslip, but for the moment I'm townreading popo and gonna toss my vote on EmmyNecromancer (it's them or rogue_alchemist, the other nonposter). Will probably move if I get something more concrete.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Another cross post. I still want a bolded princess claim.

    I think a Prist would have made a terrible move by claiming countess. Especially if it was posted AFTER Snow proposed her plan. The princess would feel fine about claiming and there would be nobody to protect her.

    There are other assumptions I don't like. The votes for libro came before the soft counter claim. I get flashbacks for PJ. It's like me, as vig shooting AV, the Seer night 1. Sure, it didn't look good for the me on first glance. But I had no way to know I would kill the Seer. (Okay, I could have trusted the Manson claim and ask him in private if I should shoot AV, but I didn't want to claim right away)
    Xi, the one player pushing a vig lynch, was a wolf.

    I continue to get bad impressions from you, Mr Popo. Some of them might be paranoia. But there are so many things speaking against you, I can not, in good faith, ignore them. Sorry.
    The best evidence of Mr Popo being town is that Rogan wants to kill him.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-11 at 04:34 AM.


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  16. - Top - End - #106
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I literally will not vote one of the zero posters even if you put me up against them for the yeet and I have to self preserve and vote them to stay alive.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Another cross post. I still want a bolded princess claim.

    I think a Prist would have made a terrible move by claiming countess. Especially if it was posted AFTER Snow proposed her plan. The princess would feel fine about claiming and there would be nobody to protect her.

    There are other assumptions I don't like. The votes for libro came before the soft counter claim. I get flashbacks for PJ. It's like me, as vig shooting AV, the Seer night 1. Sure, it didn't look good for the me on first glance. But I had no way to know I would kill the Seer. (Okay, I could have trusted the Manson claim and ask him in private if I should shoot AV, but I didn't want to claim right away)
    Xi, the one player pushing a vig lynch, was a wolf.

    I continue to get bad impressions from you, Mr Popo. Some of them might be paranoia. But there are so many things speaking against you, I can not, in good faith, ignore them. Sorry.
    I refer you to Haley having to explain to Durkon and Roy how a chaotic person who distrusts paladins thinks.

    You're on this site so you probably read the comic.

    The entire problem with how you think is that you believe the con in the first place.

    You do the shell game and think there's actually a nut under one of the shells. You buy into the entire premise of the con.

    That is why you need rogues in your party, because you fail utterly when it comes to outmaneuvering and bluffing. And when they lie to you, you believe them.

    It's like when in a 3 wolf, 1 cop setup, people always believe the cop claim. Even if they were wolfy. Even if they claim 5 minutes before end of day.

    That's a wolf 75 percent of the time and they always claim cop.

    That is why you are easily deceived and you have to have people like me come along and explain the finer points of not buying into the wolfy premise in the first place, and then bluffing the wolves right back.

    It's why I die as vanilla town all the time with claimed peeks.

    It's why I yeet claimed cops who then flip wolf.

    If lying isn't in your arsenal, in a game of lying, you are unarmed in a fight.

    Here, take my dagger. Your sword won't hit anything because you keep attacking from the front.

    Learn to know the power of the dark side. Power to save the town you love.

    - - - Updated - - -

    JeenLeen because their entire iso is a flaming pile of tires.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    Welcome Mr Popo I hope you enjoy the stay.
    Gotta cross this out, if I remember correctly, blades.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I am willing to arrest Vecna at this time. While certainly formidable as a deity, I believe this planet already has a god of destruction and death.
    Far better reaction to my accusations than Jeen.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-11 at 09:59 PM.

  17. - Top - End - #107
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Inactives are bad for solving the game when there's no autolynches (there's less participation, so less discussion, so less to analyze), and are even worse when autolynches are a thing (because if the game was balanced to begin with, inactives autolynching unbalances it, giving one side an undeserved advantage...and inactive players tends to be town far more often than not).

    I don't think we should kill inactive today, they're just a good placeholder vote. But tomorrow?

    D1 is either 11-3, 10-4, or 9-5 (god have mercy). D1 is probably town, N1 is town, D1 is probably town but might be scum, N2 is town. Let's say one of the nights gets baned, so going into D3 it's either 8-3, 7-4, or 6-5. But because Emmy and RA haven't made a single post privately or publicly, they both autolynch. Now the game where we've had a successful bane and have two mislynches of info to work with has turned into 6-3 (approaching LYLO), 5-4 (LYLO), or 4-5 (town has already lost). But maybe we got lucky and there's scum among the inactive...but probably not. Scum tends to get people excited to play in a way town just doesn't.

    If we're sitting there D2, and the N1 kill got through, and we still don't have posts from Emmy or RA? One of them needs to get lynched. Nobody likes it, but I'll say it to my dying day. Being inactive means they're going to die regardless, and that they're almost certainly town; the former means we need to kill them for the sake of the win condition, and the latter means that nobody is going to be happy about killing them, or happy with me for pointing out it's the best play unless we can guarantee catching a wolf.


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  18. - Top - End - #108
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I personally would look forward to seeing how guilty wolf Popo intends to continue being the top poster for the rest of the game and never getting murdered at night and how baffling that would be.

    That's definitely a plan of some kind, that will certainly win for wolves, because handing the town a wolf today and spewing a ton of townies in the process is a grand strategy.

    If I were you, I'd deliberately leave the howling and certainly guilty Popo alive just to see if he continues behaving like he is a townie.

    I know one thing, I like to vote for my wolf partners when everyone thinks slash knows I am a wolf, when I am a wolf.

    I like to bus people in that situation, because that makes total sense.

    Outed wolves usually go silent for a reason. It's because they literally cannot afford to vote for their partners ever.

    I know my disloyal partners that I certainly have would appreciate being bussed today or soon for absolutely no town credits that I would then have to go survive the game.

    That's one heck of a strategy. I bet every wolf signed off on that when I proposed it to them.

  19. - Top - End - #109
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I literally will not vote one of the zero posters even if you put me up against them for the yeet and I have to self preserve and vote them to stay alive.
    I would go for self preservation. The disadvantage is, of course, you might die anyway at the next day. But on the bright side, you might manage to kill a wolf.

    Still, I disagree with AV. Going for someone with 0 posts is not useful unless this vote is supposed to force a lurker to post. But lurking does not seem to fit for Emmy.

    We should go for someone more active so we actually have posts to analyze in light of the flip.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  20. - Top - End - #110
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Inactives are bad for solving the game when there's no autolynches (there's less participation, so less discussion, so less to analyze), and are even worse when autolynches are a thing (because if the game was balanced to begin with, inactives autolynching unbalances it, giving one side an undeserved advantage...and inactive players tends to be town far more often than not).

    I don't think we should kill inactive today, they're just a good placeholder vote. But tomorrow?

    D1 is either 11-3, 10-4, or 9-5 (god have mercy). D1 is probably town, N1 is town, D1 is probably town but might be scum, N2 is town. Let's say one of the nights gets baned, so going into D3 it's either 8-3, 7-4, or 6-5. But because Emmy and RA haven't made a single post privately or publicly, they both autolynch. Now the game where we've had a successful bane and have two mislynches of info to work with has turned into 6-3 (approaching LYLO), 5-4 (LYLO), or 4-5 (town has already lost). But maybe we got lucky and there's scum among the inactive...but probably not. Scum tends to get people excited to play in a way town just doesn't.

    If we're sitting there D2, and the N1 kill got through, and we still don't have posts from Emmy or RA? One of them needs to get lynched. Nobody likes it, but I'll say it to my dying day. Being inactive means they're going to die regardless, and that they're almost certainly town; the former means we need to kill them for the sake of the win condition, and the latter means that nobody is going to be happy about killing them, or happy with me for pointing out it's the best play unless we can guarantee catching a wolf.
    You're forcing them to claim and also giving them a zero percent survival chance instead of whatever it actually is.

    AV, I love you to death as a person, but no. Hard disagree.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I would go for self preservation. The disadvantage is, of course, you might die anyway at the next day. But on the bright side, you might manage to kill a wolf.

    Still, I disagree with AV. Going for someone with 0 posts is not useful unless this vote is supposed to force a lurker to post. But lurking does not seem to fit for Emmy.

    We should go for someone more active so we actually have posts to analyze in light of the flip.
    There may be a wolf in the inactives.

    I have so many townies that this is actually plausible.

    I also have enough people who are suspect that I'd prefer to hit someone who is behaving suspiciously.

  21. - Top - End - #111
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Outed wolves usually go silent for a reason. It's because they literally cannot afford to vote for their partners ever.
    Only part of this I'll respond to (cuz I generally agree) is that I think people go silent when caught out as wolves for a reason. Getting caught as wolf means 1) you're a liar, and 2) you're bad at it. Your options are now either lie so good that you convince town that you're not actually a caught wolf, and generate so much misinformation that it screws up town strategy for days chasing down the pebble under the cup...or you can accept that you're not a good liar and go quiet. Town can't try and outsmart your lies to figure out your wolf partners if you literally don't say anything. That's a risk you take if you start playing WIFOM on purpose from the gallows. It's easier to just admit defeat.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    You're forcing them to claim and also giving them a zero percent survival chance instead of whatever it actually is.

    AV, I love you to death as a person, but no. Hard disagree.
    Being inactive is already giving them a 0% survival chance. D1 is three days, subsequent Ds are two days, Ns are one day. D1-N1-D1 is a six-day period. If the game has been going almost a full week and they still haven't even shown up to make a single post? They're not showing up just cuz they got accused. Not unless they're lurking wolves. If we lynch an active player, maybe they're a wolf. Maybe. But maybe they're not. If we lynch an inactive, they're almost certainly a townie.

    Targeting an active player D2 gives us ~50% chance of losing two townies/one scum, and a ~50% chance of losing three townies (~50% after accounting for info gained over the course of the two days). Targeting an inactive player D2 gives us a 100% chance to lose only two townies that we were going to lose anyway. At least my way, we don't have an extra dead townie. But no, nobody likes that plan. Instead what we do is always lynch our gut feelings, which aren't accurate this early in the game. We lynch a townie, the inactives never claim, the inactives autodie and flip townie, and town's chances of victory are gutted. But heaven forbid we be mean to people who are "playing the game" in name only.

    If they show up and participate before EoD2, I won't consider actually lynching them. But the closer we get to EoD2 without their presence, the more I'll push for it.

    All this is distracting me from searching the thread. I'll just drop it for now cuz I can see I'm once again not going to convince anybody. >.<
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-11 at 02:47 AM.


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  22. - Top - End - #112
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    You're forcing them to claim and also giving them a zero percent survival chance instead of whatever it actually is.

    AV, I love you to death as a person, but no. Hard disagree.

    - - - Updated - - -



    There may be a wolf in the inactives.

    I have so many townies that this is actually plausible.

    I also have enough people who are suspect that I'd prefer to hit someone who is behaving suspiciously.
    I don't see a demand for a claim? Only for activity and activity is good for town.
    But I agree in principle. Voting inactives is not the way to go, unless you are very sure the active players are all town.

    But the better move of course is going for somebody suspicious.

    Currently unwilling to lynch:
    Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BCH.
    They actively gave me reasons to want them alive.

    Not happy about a lynch for Emmy or Rouge.
    They are inactive and therefore, a lynch would not reveal a lot.

    AV starts to get more active, which I see as a win. We disagree about some things (and it still would be funny to see the curse in action) but I think there are better targets right now.

    Jeen... I will have to look at his posts in more detail. But I would like to avoid doing so from mobile.

    I would like to hear more from blades, but I won't put pressure there right now. He said he was busy IRL, which is something I can accept at the moment.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  23. - Top - End - #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Only part of this I'll respond to (cuz I generally agree) is that I think people go silent when caught out as wolves for a reason. Getting caught as wolf means 1) you're a liar, and 2) you're bad at it. Your options are now either lie so good that you convince town that you're not actually a caught wolf, and generate so much misinformation that it screws up town strategy for days chasing down the pebble under the cup...or you can accept that you're not a good liar and go quiet. Town can't try and outsmart your lies to figure out your wolf partners if you literally don't say anything. That's a risk you take if you start playing WIFOM on purpose from the gallows. It's easier to just admit defeat.
    It's some of that, but it's really mostly the part where town goes "oh, you're town right? Well then X is definitely not your wolf partner, and therefore, you should have no problem voting them to save your own neck."

    As soon as literally any townie says something like that, the "outed" wolf should be either lolcatting, trolling with their votes, or being dead silent.

    There are no further viable moves, at all, period.

    That's far more of an issue than having to think up lies. That can be trivial but yeah, if you're outed this early then you can be a bad wolfy-liar.

    My lie on the other hand literally always gets caught because countess always counterclaims me or literally dies and then I die, if they exist in the game. And if they don't, I was risking being outed on the 1 in whatever chance its exactly the countess that doesnt exist, when it clearly does because I was counterclaimed. So I would have known that the countess did exist going into it as a wolf because I would then also know which role is not in the game, the missing role, which is obviously not the countess now.

    Like, if you're trying to claim countess to provoke a counterclaim, then the purpose of that lie is to out the claim and then murder them at night. That's the only reason to do that lie when you're a wolf.

    So that lie would be made going into it with the expectation that I would be the first wolf to die all game.

    You go into it with the mindset that you are already caught, there's literally no survival percentage after that.

    And to top it off, Snowblaze is the one who suggested the countess claim.

    And I immediately claimed after that. Literally the very next post.

    So for that to be a wolfy plan that I was involved with, Snowblaze would have to be in on it as well.

    I can't describe for you how ridiculous and dumb that is. This isn't even wine in front of me, this would then be outing two wolves for the price of one role we can probably pile votes on and force to claim anyway because THAT is what wolfy teams ACTUALLY do on day one to hunt power roles.

    That's the time honored practice of going whoops, my bad, sorry for forcing you to claim how dreadful, good thing I don't have to claim as well and trade myself for just you, and by the way here I go piling on someone else I will then also force to claim.

    Chain claim forcing with my wolfy votes, all day, every day, until town finally (if ever) gets wise and arrests me.

    That is 1000 percent smarter and more likely to succeed than me claiming countess on Snowblaze's prompting and then telling everyone else in the game to not claim, refusing to create additional wagons or suspects, defending the zero posters, threatening to die instead of voting the zero posters, suggesting that the entire claim thing is a bad idea, moving the discussion repeatedly away from claims and roles and mechanics and talking about who is wolfy or not and why, and who is townie and shouldn't be touched or not and why.

    You have all lost to wolves doing the vote piling thing. That's how wolves out town power roles.

    That's the correct thing, that blends in with town.

    Doing the thing I did and waving my big black naked genie rear end in everyone's faces, drawing all the attention in the game to myself, and posting unsustainably as a soon to be counterclaimed wolf, that's a level of amateur hour wolfing that everyone here should intuitively know I am far, far better than to try.

    There's wine in front of me defenses, and there is "I am literally too smart to be that stupid" particularly while lampshading it and suggesting I will top post the remainder of my time alive and that you could make me vote my partners and I'd never get town credit for it.

    Even hard claiming wolf on your first post and reminding people of that claim in every post would at least be seen as funny and some kind of mind game. For a wolf to do what I did today, they would have to be all kinds of special in their head.

    All this is distracting me from searching the thread. I'll just drop it for now cuz I can see I'm once again not going to convince anybody. >.<
    You are right. This is not a situation where there is a correct answer, and one of us is right, and one of us is wrong always.

    It will be correct in some games and bad in others. All I am saying is we determine which course of action we should take based on context.

    Right now, we have the rare case where day one was actually chock full of spew, readable interactions, and productive discussion despite some efforts to the contrary.

    In a vacuum and we have nothing, sure, especially when an inactive is by odds more likely to be a wolf because I have a lot of townies and that number has actually increased since I last mentioned, sure.

    Those are trivial hits tomorrow or the day after when they do nothing to be town read and we think my town core is right or you have your own town core you think is right, etc.

    On the lower and lower odds those people are town, I would still like to hit someone who has actively behaved like a wolf today.

    That creates more spew and more readable information and the slankers who are wolves continue to have zero defense or reason to be town read tomorrow. Order of operations is important here.

    Particularly if Jeen is a wolf and Vecna is town, let's get that particular head today. That's an exceptional trophy to have as payment for Libro being outed.

  24. - Top - End - #114
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    I'll probably be kinda busy for most of the (real-life) day but I figured I might try to literally collect my thoughts in one place before that. It's not really anything new, but still.

    • bladescape – No idea at this time.
    • gac3 – No idea at this time.
    • AvatarVecna – Maaaaybe slight townread?
    • Xihirli – Slight townread for the reasons I stated earlier.
    • Batcathat – Completely trusted and dashingly handsome.
    • Book Wombat – No idea at this time.
    • Rogue_Alchemist – No idea at this time.
    • Snowblaze – Feels town, but almost always does. Plan might be genuinely good idea, genuinely bad idea or sneaky wolf idea.
    • Libro – The counter-claim makes me lean town. But maybe the wolves knew the Countess was inactive and wanted to make Popo look bad? Though it seems like a risky move, so probably town?
    • EmmyNecromancer – No idea at this time.
    • Supagoof – No idea at this time.
    • Mr. Popo – Oddly, I kind of trust him more after the whole claim/counter-claim. I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning but I could see why someone would make it.
    • Rogan – I'm kind of leaning towards town, but that might just be a reaction to him seeming to trust me.
    • JeenLeen – My strongest wolfread, but based entirely on his weird reaction to Snow's plan.
    Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-11 at 03:32 AM.

  25. - Top - End - #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Not entirely sure how useful any of these powers are. It seems like there's going to be a lot of missing information or wrong information due to the role switching and mass amounts of the equivalent of roleblocking.

    So the usual solve by spreadsheet stuff is probably ill advised here. Just find disloyal maggots using your Earthling brains and see how it goes. Claim the info you get when you get enough of it to make it worth claiming.

    Otherwise, treat it like a vanilla game with an innocent child more or less. Protect the innocent child and keep her hidden until late game if possible.
    Mostly agree. We've got three role-switchers creating chaos, an innocent child, a pseudo-baner, two baners, two watchers, two commicatives, and five role-seers (with two of those sixteen roles temporarily out of commission). Most notably, this is a game with no alignment seer, and it's going to be very difficult to prove mechanically that player X is scum. The role-seers can scry roles, but anybody except Princess/Countess isn't guaranteed to be any particular alignment. Watchers can see that player X targeted player Y and see if player Y died, but they don't know who else targeted player Y, so player Y dying isn't a smoking gun with Player X's name on it. Countess can see which roles targeted the princess and can transfer the targeting to herself, but can't attach a player name to the killer. This is a game that cannot be solved with just mech, it has to be analysis-heavy. We can't just sit around baning the seer and testing claims, because there are no seers and claims can change every single night until the King/Princes are dead. We have to talk things out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Besides, if the people asked too many questions they might discover her secret. And that wasn't going to happen unless it was on her own terms.
    Hmm...

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Something about AvatarVecna's banter/joke-vote on Libro rubs me the wrong way, enough to justify an early D1 vote.
    To put words to what I'm guessing the issue was:

    "Libro always does this thing where they vote and then leave for the rest of D1. AV is voting for Libro in case AV leaves for the rest of the day, and then AV left for the rest of the day. AV is doing the exact thing they're voting Libro for always doing."

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I like how you're playing. Very fun to read.
    From a practical perspective, I'd rather vote someone else than you, assuming no actual evidence, just to keep reading the letters you are writing.
    "From a practical perspective, you making RP posts makes me less inclined to lynch you."

    I don't think you know what "practical" means. This part feels a lil sus to me.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Slight nitpick, @Jeen: the Baron can’t network with the confirmed town under my plan. The Princess can only be targeted by the nightkill once they’ve revealed and the Handmaidens prevent other actions from resolving on the Countess.
    This is incorrect.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    The Countess is always Town. Whoever gets the role of the Countess cannot lose the role of the Countess for any reason.

    At the end of each night, you will be informed of who has targeted the Princess (but not the identity of the Princess or the people who targeted them). You will have the option to change any number of abilities targeting the Princess to target you instead. The player(s) whose target is changed will not be told.[/SPOILER]
    [SPOILER=Ability Interactions - Countess]
    If the game begins while no one has the Countess and a Mafia member is forced to take a new role, then the Mafia member will not receive a new role. The target who would receive a new role and the person who forced the role change are not notified that the power did not work.

    The Countess does not count as targeting the Princess, so the ability will still work after the Princess has claimed.

    If multiple cards of the same type target the Princess, the Countess will be told.

    The Countess will receive the following information when someone targets the Princess.
    King - "The King has tried to swap roles with the Princess."
    Prince - "The Prince has tried to swap roles with the Princess."
    Handmaid - "The Handmaid has tried to block actions targeting the Princess. Any actions listed below will not resolve."
    Baron - "The Baron has tried to establish communication with the Princess."
    Priest - "The Priest has tried to watch the Princess."
    Guard - "The Guard has tried to guess that the Princess is the ____."
    Mafia - "The Mafia has tried to kill the Princess."
    The countess doesn't have to change all powers targeting the princess to target the Countess instead - if she sees Handmaid and Baron target the princess, she can switch the Handmaid to target her, leaving the Princess and Baron in private communication. That's baron QTing with confirmed town. That's probably the best outcome of your own plan, and you're shooting it down? Why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Currently, there are 4 players I would not vote for.
    [Rogan, Snow, Mr Popo, Xi]
    I vaguely recall that in the past couple hours, Rogan has written something similar. I'm hanging onto this to see how the list has changed (if at all) in that timeframe.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Of the things Vecna is doing, none of those read as being loyal.
    I am very curious what Mr Popo thinks I was doing at the time that expressed disloyalty. All I was "doing" was being absent. This reads like they're talking about an active player who's ignoring the flaws others point out in their own arguments, rather than an inactive player with a single randvote post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.
    I'm automatically against anything that says "post less" even as a joke. "Don't post important thoughts on the game at unreasonable hours" is weird because they aren't unreasonable hours for everybody, and everybody's gonna end up reading through the thread anyway. The sooner it's posted, the more it can be talked about.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I have an idea, let's not systematically give hints as to who the Princess is not.

    As far as I am concerned, everyone is the Princess, including me.

    And if you imply you're not, I would like a few words with your corpse at sundown.
    The real princess is the friends we make along the way.

    Quote Originally Posted by CaoimhinTheCape View Post
    If someone bolds a claim saying they are the Princess, I will confirm or deny the next time I'm online.
    I/Unavenger ruined fake!innocent-child reveals for everybody. All they had to do was neither confirm nor deny and I might've lived through D1 that game. But now it's standard for the narrator to play wet blanket.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Oh man. I forgot this game started. I need to catch up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay... So Mr. Popo claimed? But then said "don't give hints as to who the princess is not... I might be the princess. Does that mean they didn't claim?

    This is not a "this seems Wolfy" post as much as "is this what happened" post.
    FOS on gac3. This is the kinda limp accusation a wolf makes to test the waters. "This person did a thing that's maybe extremely suspicious but I'm trying to act unsure in case I get too much pushback on that argument." Doesn't sit right with me.

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    You posted after Mr. Popo claimed, but did not claim then. So I'm assuming you're lying.
    If not, want to throw a bold to back that up?
    Mr Popo: "We shouldn't tell scum team who princess is or isn't, and we should all pretend to be the real princess in order to spread misinformation about who the real princess is, to keep the real princess safe. On an unrelated note, I'm the real princess."

    Snowblaze: "I'm the real princess!"

    JeenLeen: "I think Snowblaze is scum for seriously claiming princess second after Mr Popo's very serious claim, and I will only back off if you prove you're the princess."

    It's not awful for town if the Princess has to claim, but it's still worse than if the Princess doesn't claim unless she's actively on the chopping block. I'm fairly certain Snowblaze wasn't on the chopping block at this point in the day, so it doesn't feel good that JeenLeen is pushing for a reveal here.

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Now, Snowblaze's plan does have some merit. Not saying it doesn't. But I'd trust it a lot more if we knew Snowblaze's alignment. So I propose lynch her.
    Snowblaze being town doesn't make it a good plan, it just means it's not intentionally bad. Snowblaze being scum doesn't make it a bad plan, it could be scum!Snowblaze giving a good plan to try and blend in. Snowblaze flipping can give us info, but it can't tell us whether the plan is viable or not - that's a matter completely unrelated to her alignment.

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Princess could claim N1 or probably wait until D2 if feeling that way.


    ...did you just...suggest that an Innocent Child use their "get out of lynch by hardclaiming town" power...at night? When they can't be getting lynched? And when there's time for the scumteam to target them with a kill? Yeah it would end up getting the Countess killed instead, and even then only if a Handmaid wasn't quick on the draw, but...that's a bad take.

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I'm pretty sure the wolves do not contain all of Snowblaze, Libro, and Mr. Popo. Seems too bold to do two schemes D1 (Libro-maybe-counterclaim-Popo in a double-fakeclaim-Countess move, and Snowblaze's plan). So if two of those three wind up flipping wolf, I trust the third. Yet, the longer I let the paranoia stew, the more I could consider it as possible.
    "If we catch two wolves, this third person probably isn't one."

    I think that's a statistically defensible conclusion. Of the "if we lynch all but one of the wolves, town probably wins" kinda statements. It's saying nothing while pretending to say something worthwhile, a classic wolf move.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    However, I will blame anybody using the option of claiming without bolding. If you want to have the protection of beeing a princess, you should pay the prize as well.
    Missing the point, perhaps deliberately? The point of claiming princess without bolding is to create as much misinformation as possible, not to hide behind the princess title to avoid getting lynched without actually doing the thing that would make the narrator descend from heaven to confirm or deny. If everybody is constantly claiming princess, it makes it that much harder for the wolves to figure out who the real princess is. Keeping wolves from gaining info is useful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Take that, "god" of destruction. You're in a castle dungeon cell. I know you can teleport, but that's the plan we're going with.
    For somebody who is so vehemently against lynching people who are low-activity, you sure were biting at the chomp for my head back then.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Well. I was really hoping that wouldn’t happen.
    Snowblaze: "Countess should claim, then Princess should claim. This plan has contingencies for counterclaims happening."

    Countess: [Claims]

    Countess: [Counterclaims]

    Snowblaze: "I was really hoping that wouldn't happen."

    Bruh.

    Mr Popo's claim wasn't even serious, but also...how is this not literally exactly what you suggested should happen?




    That's me caught up to the stuff I was here to comment on when it happened. I don't think I can really justify voting anybody except JeenLeen after reading through the thread. I like how Mr Popo thinks and it frustrates me that Libro only popped into the thread to counterclaim an obvious fakeclaim. Mr Popo's entire post history is "I'm claiming X, and I'm here to tell you why claiming X is a bad thing that shouldn't be done!". He practically begged you all to see it was just a smokescreen, and now he's getting lynched for it.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-11 at 05:14 AM.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
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  26. - Top - End - #116
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    If someone is actually good at math, help me figure this out.

    I am suggesting the following:

    1) Snowblaze is town
    2) Bladescape is town
    3) Rogan is town
    4) Batcat is town
    5) Libro is town
    6) At this point? AvatarVecna is actually town. I have a HARD time believing all of that today came from a wolf I was otherwise stomping to death with glee. That's the kind of no-sell pro wrestling recovery from offense that only comes from babyfaces who are always going to win the wrestling match because it is scripted that they will win it. A wolf would have flinched more than this a thousand percent.
    7) Xihilrli is also town.

    8) I am also saying I like Supagoof for town despite not being solid on that.

    9) I am also saying I think wolves have posted and are active, and have voted in a wolfy manner today.

    I am also saying at least one of the zero posters is probably town. Possibly both, but let's not get carried away.

    What are the sheer mathematical odds that the wolves only voted for wolves today, rather than townies?

    Your wolves are among the folks voting for my townies numbered 1 through 7 above, OR MYSELF.

    That's what happened so far today.

    What are the sheer flipping odds that DID NOT happen today?

    It's astronomical. You have more likelihood of being personally elected pope in real life.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    The real princess is the friends we make along the way.
    Holy popo on a stick, that's hilarious. I say this exact same bolded stuff with mix and match words in between, all the time.

    AV lock town never rescind.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Naming names:

    No generic thoughts, your wolves are in Jeen, gac3, and Book Wombat.

    - - - Updated - - -

    If one of those is wrong, there IS an inactive wolf.

    If there are 4-5 wolves, there IS an inactive wolf.

    That's basically a solve, which is utterly crushing to have at this stage.

  27. - Top - End - #117
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Has Mr. Popo played before at a point I haven't? Because right now I'm wondering why they are staying so many people with such confidence are town. To the point that they claim their three wolf suspects are either it or wolves are inactive.

    That said I haven't read all of the posts. I have skimmed some of the bigger ones as I have just gotten off of work. Seems like Mr. Popo is a big suspect base on the number of times I saw him named in red. Is it just because of all this weird countess claim stuff?

  28. - Top - End - #118
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Somehow Mr. Popo feels off to me, might be all the layers. Dunno.
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  29. - Top - End - #119
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    So I was going to call out Book Wombat for having their second post being to vote for the person who just called them out and that still feels off. But they have posted four times.

    What I did notice while looking at the stats though is that Supagoof has actually only posted twice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap


    The roar of the crowd clamors over the bleachers. The peasants, despite the unrest in the castle, still clamor for a show. They have traveled in from their homesteads, their farmlands and towns, to see a performance after all. The crowd even managed to get in sync on the same page for a chant.

    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    We will, we will, joust you
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    We will, we will, joust you


    Sir Goof couldn't help but chuckle at the ridiculousness. With his armor on, atop his steed, he asks for his lance. He scans the audience, and sees that the royal box is empty. No king, certainly no queen, and sadly - no princess. Sir Goof had hoped to win her favor this day, but with the events of last night, she has gone into hiding to protect herself. Goof had even gone so far as to wear her colors, purple and gold. With worried dismay, Goof sets his sights down the field. His opponent, clad in heavy iron armor with colors of black and red, was ready before him. His shield bore a strange insignia - a BatCatHat. Sir Good pondered at the origins.
    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Who's Sugapoof?
    Yet is on Mr. Popos list of town. He did express hesitance but... This should be a null read based on the fact there's nothing there right? Am I missing something? It's one thing if it was "these three look Wolfy so Supagoof is probably town" but it wasn't. It seems off to me.

    Edit: having actually read more of the post, by Mr. Popos own wolf hunting logic that they shared... Supagoof should be on the list of wolf subjects for having voted for one of their town picks.
    Last edited by gac3; 2021-09-11 at 04:42 AM.

  30. - Top - End - #120
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    So I was going to call out Book Wombat for having their second post being to vote for the person who just called them out and that still feels off. But they have posted four times.
    Uh, yeah. I only reloaded the page at around 11 o'clock and posted half an hour later so I missed the part where Mr. Popo called me out.
    Probably sounds a bit suspicious, oh well.
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-09-11 at 04:47 AM.
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