A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #151
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    I welcome votes on me from gac3 and book wombat directly after accusing them of being wolves.
    .
    Ii haven't voted you? I'm not even trying to say you are suspicious for the things I pointed out. I'm trying to say I'm confused. Just woke up and still catching up so hopefully will have more to add.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I already hardclaimed Princess. I'll do it again, if you like: I'm the Princess ;)
    Wait... Hard claim like narrator reveal? Did I miss that?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    This is a vote for a townie for zero reasons, the exact same thing as gac3's opener.

    The wolfy purpose of which is stated in the wall I posted about gac. It's the same shiz, and even distancing oneself from responsibility by claiming the dice made him do it.

    You know who didn't do that? Rogan.

    I harshly disagreed with it, but Rogan was basically plopping his big manly balls all over Vecna and saying LOL I SHOULD KILL YOU EVERY GAME FOR FUNSIES.

    Which is downright toxic if it's not actually a joke.

    But you know what that isn't? Avoiding responsibility for his own vote. Which is why Rogan is a big manly villager right now and Book Wombat is getting slammed shut by this entire village.



    Pure mechanics speculation which is not even the case because we have claimed Princesses and Countesses.

    "Who knows?" Padding. This is staggeringly bad "I am thinking about this game" pretend roleplay.

    That's page 1. Does he improve?



    You don't say!

    This is pure commentary mode, zero threats made against wolves, zero direct or indirect pressure, zero solving done. Haven't seen even one villager read yet.

    Surely something villagery happened on page 2? Nope? Okay.

    Three strikes and you're out, Wombat.

    I accuse Wombat and immediately Wombat appears, flinch flinch lurky lurky wolfy flinch flinch caught you, scummer.



    "off" is such a slam dunk case.

    Way to distance yourself from the responsibility of my townie death by saying "off" and "Dunno".

    You're clearly confident this kills a wolf.

    Obviously, frankly.

    Book Wombat can get owned by this entire village.



    Book has zero townies, has voted for two townies, and admits the timing of their OMGUS is a bit suspicious.

    GLAD WE AGREE.

    When you have this many villagers, hitting wolves is shooting fish in a barrel... of laughs.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Read the specifics of what was said, one more time.

    You absolutely can get this. Absolutely you will have zero struggle with this concept.

    I suggested the wolf team (of three) probably plopped their votes all over townies today.

    Yes, of course, some townies did that as well. Of course. What person in their right mind thought i implied otherwise?

    Now, put yourself in gac's shoes.

    He is literally suggesting every vote on a townie is equal.

    Which means we have more wolves this game than townies.

    There can be no context whatsoever that makes one vote on a townie wolfy, and another villagery.

    No context, no reasoning.

    Simply accusing someone for being wolfy and voting for people I think are villagers is scummy because hey, villagers also voted for villagers.

    Which makes sense exactly in the universe where I had zero reasons to town read anybody, and in literally no other universes.

    That is EXACTLY a wolf suggesting a townie "should" think all votes for townies are equal.

    It is EXACTLY a scum mindset, and literally never a townie mindset.

    Literally no townies ever, ever, ever think in this specific way, even yourself, who believes that wolves behave inconsistently.

    Townies do it way more, so I harshly disagree with you philosophically, but even if you believe it, you know for a FACT that particular logic is bogus in the extreme and that was literally the logic being presented.

    No townie thinks that way including you who thinks that calling out inconsistencies (this generic? Give me a break!) is a good way of catching wolves.

    You have to disconnect your brain and pretend not to be able to think like a human being, in order to PRETEND to believe that.
    I'm not saying context doesn't matter! I'm saying that you said the issue is that I gave no reason and voted "town" and then have contributed next to nothing (which is correct) but my point was that the person I vote literally fits that same description. They voted one of your top townies with no context and literally has done nothing else.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Emmy because I'm still not caught up enough to have a bigger wolf dar than "vote inactive"

  2. - Top - End - #152
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Wait... Hard claim like narrator reveal? Did I miss that?
    Nobody has claimed princess that hard. We just all insist very forcefully that we're the real princess, and also that everybody else is also the real princess.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  3. - Top - End - #153
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody has claimed princess that hard. We just all insist very forcefully that we're the real princess, and also that everybody else is also the real princess.
    Okay cool. I've only really noticed it as I moved through with snowblaze so I thought it was more person specific

  4. - Top - End - #154
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Ii haven't voted you? I'm not even trying to say you are suspicious for the things I pointed out. I'm trying to say I'm confused. Just woke up and still catching up so hopefully will have more to add.

    <Snip>

    Emmy because I'm still not caught up enough to have a bigger wolf dar than "vote inactive"
    Is there anything anybody could do to reduce this confusion?

    And do you think you will change your vote before EoD? Voting the inactive is not very helpful, since it wouldn't give us much information, regardless of the flip.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  5. - Top - End - #155
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Is there anything anybody could do to reduce this confusion?

    And do you think you will change your vote before EoD? Voting the inactive is not very helpful, since it wouldn't give us much information, regardless of the flip.
    It depends. I'll have my first real chunk of time to look through things here in a couple hours and can probably get some reads then. So if day doesn't end before then then yes. (Idk when day ends)

    The confusion is mainly on Mr. Popo. It's just so bizarre to just blanket say someone is lock town without a single flip. Like having leans is good. But to act as though it's the gospel truth and then frame your wolf suspicions around those town reads. Like i get that I look Wolfy and that's fair. But I am not struggling the logic which was used..

  6. - Top - End - #156
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It depends. I'll have my first real chunk of time to look through things here in a couple hours and can probably get some reads then. So if day doesn't end before then then yes. (Idk when day ends)

    The confusion is mainly on Mr. Popo. It's just so bizarre to just blanket say someone is lock town without a single flip. Like having leans is good. But to act as though it's the gospel truth and then frame your wolf suspicions around those town reads. Like i get that I look Wolfy and that's fair. But I am not struggling the logic which was used..
    Popo is very good at finding town and as wolf good at hiding his wolf buddies.

    He can and will change those reads on new info. Don't think it's as set in stone as he takes it. He just evaluates the most likely targets for the day and moves in on that.
    "Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"




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  7. - Top - End - #157
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    It's also worth mentioning that with how the votes are now, unless I find a really convincing argument or there is some major CFD going on, my vote is pretty inconsequential right now.

    Edit: my point being that while reads will be incoming, moving my vote is kind of meh at this moment.
    Last edited by gac3; 2021-09-11 at 07:50 PM.

  8. - Top - End - #158
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Eh, I guess me being the D1 mislynch doesn't hurt too much. I just wish my death would yield more info.

    For what it's worth...
    hard towncore on Libro
    town lean on Snowblaze and Mr. Popo -- either that or one/they are doing a really bold wolf move. I'll take bladescape's comments as meaning that Mr. Popo is reasonably Town with these actions/posts.
    town lean on Xihirli
    slight wolf lean on Batcathat. Seems maybe opportunistic to go on my wagon.
    mostly neutral on everyone else.

    I buy gac3 really forgetting he already posted in this game. Neutral read.
    I have no clue why Mr. Popo is supsicious of AV, but, then again, I didn't really read his posts from today in detail because it seems like I'm likely to get lynched and I don't have a good counterarguement about why I'm town.

    Or at least one better than what Xi said:
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    That said, I've not been pulled over to the JeenLeen wagon. Popo's got a lot of information going toward JeenLeen, excepting one crucial thing, and that is experience playing with Jeen. Now I've run a game that Jeen was playing in and I've been in games with them for... what, the last year? It's been a fair few. And I will take a second to say that Jeen always acts like this. Now, in Jeen's defense, or rather, not at all, he is also usually Neutral, so my town-read on him may be off, but looking at his behavior D1 in my Yu-Gi-Oh! game, it was full of statements like "I'll be up-front that I'm aware this totally can look like a wolf defending himself, but..." and "I don't want to answer this too fully -- I wrote up a lot of IF-THEN scenarios then deleted them..." ALMOST saying a lot of things. He also sort of bumbled around with the rules (misidentifying the Baner role, asking over the phase mechanics), and I say that as a proud bumbler around with the rules. Jeen learns by doing and doesn't usually hit his stride day one. His behavior today has been consistent with his town behavior.
    Yep.
    To be honest, real life's gotten a lot more hectic with work over the last 6 months (became a manager in a public sector job, then got a new job in the private sector) and I've had less time to really think things through.



    ---

    Also, curious to see how exactly Cao responds to a fakeclaim, so Claim: Princess
    I'm NOT the Princess. Doing this just because I want to see in practice what happens when someone falsely uses the power, even though Cao already said what he'd do.

    I do think I know who the Princess is, as I think he... well, I shouldn't say more, I guess. Probably shouldn't say this sentence, but, well, if I'm dying, I feel like leaving on a note like that... Or maybe I'm just misdirecting the wolves from who I think the Princess is. (Assuming Snowblaze is lying. Not sure what to make of her statements or if I care to think it through at this stage.)

  9. - Top - End - #159
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It depends. I'll have my first real chunk of time to look through things here in a couple hours and can probably get some reads then. So if day doesn't end before then then yes. (Idk when day ends)

    The confusion is mainly on Mr. Popo. It's just so bizarre to just blanket say someone is lock town without a single flip. Like having leans is good. But to act as though it's the gospel truth and then frame your wolf suspicions around those town reads. Like i get that I look Wolfy and that's fair. But I am not struggling the logic which was used..
    You have a bit less than 2 hours left in the day.

    Ah, okay. I personally put this as "plausible differences ". Nothing I could clarify or clear up, I'm afraid.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It's also worth mentioning that with how the votes are now, unless I find a really convincing argument or there is some major CFD going on, my vote is pretty inconsequential right now.

    Edit: my point being that while reads will be incoming, moving my vote is kind of meh at this moment.
    I hope there won't be no surprise reveals. I have to sleep soon, so I won't be able to react.
    I would like to ask you to state your opinion about the wagons before the day ends. It might not change things, but I would like to hear it anyway.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  10. - Top - End - #160
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    BardGuy

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I don't think folk should pile on Emmy because 1) she could be the Princess and 2) her death won't yield any info (unless she flips wolf.) Inactives are bad for the game, but, in this game... seems not the best tactic, especially after discussion we've had thus far and some flips being interesting.

    Also, I'll note I do see how I seem wolfy. So I don't think my death should necessarily incriminate anyone who voted for me. Though I do find it oddly how strongly Mr. Popo goes against me (and AV), but maybe that's just my reaction to their overall tone.
    bladescape's comments make me think that Mr. Popo's tone is normal for him, and just seems out of place with how most folk in current games post.

    Also, while I have a neutral read on bladescape, I do feel that, if he flips wolf, Mr. Popo is likely Town. I can see a wolf doing some slight defending of Mr. Popo D1 to say the groundwork for him being considered a scumbuddy once the said wolf is lynched.

  11. - Top - End - #161
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Eh, I guess me being the D1 mislynch doesn't hurt too much. I just wish my death would yield more info.

    <Snip>

    I have no clue why Mr. Popo is supsicious of AV, but, then again, I didn't really read his posts from today in detail because it seems like I'm likely to get lynched and I don't have a good counterarguement about why I'm town.

    <Snip>

    Also, curious to see how exactly Cao responds to a fakeclaim, so Claim: Princess
    I'm NOT the Princess. Doing this just because I want to see in practice what happens when someone falsely uses the power, even though Cao already said what he'd do.

    I do think I know who the Princess is, as I think he... well, I shouldn't say more, I guess. Probably shouldn't say this sentence, but, well, if I'm dying, I feel like leaving on a note like that... Or maybe I'm just misdirecting the wolves from who I think the Princess is. (Assuming Snowblaze is lying. Not sure what to make of her statements or if I care to think it through at this stage.)
    Do you really need a reason to be suspicious about AV?
    But seriously, he was suspicious about the libro vote, but changed his opinion when AV started to post. At least that's what I got from those posts.

    The way you talk makes me even more comfortable sitting on you. This death-accepting behavior reminds me of Snow from PJ. Only she started doing so earlier.

    But if you turn out to be the princess, bluffing to be not the princess while bold claiming princess.... well, I guess I should stop playing in this case. All those claims are giving me a headache.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  12. - Top - End - #162
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    For what it's worth if this flips green I'd want to relook at Rogan
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  13. - Top - End - #163
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    This town never would let me forget. The newspapers, the interviews, the questions, the prying eyes. They all wanted to know. They talked about how tragic it was, how sad. It was infuriating.
    Once, though, one of the journalists looked me in the eyes and asked “so, why did you do it?”
    My mother had to pry me off of her.



    Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
    counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  14. - Top - End - #164
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    Also, curious to see how exactly Cao responds to a fakeclaim, so Claim: Princess
    I'm NOT the Princess. Doing this just because I want to see in practice what happens when someone falsely uses the power, even though Cao already said what he'd do.
    Oooh, I really wish I had something different to confirm but:



    JeenLeen is NOT the Princess!








    1 hour left y'all.

  15. - Top - End - #165
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    This town never would let me forget. The newspapers, the interviews, the questions, the prying eyes. They all wanted to know. They talked about how tragic it was, how sad. It was infuriating.
    Once, though, one of the journalists looked me in the eyes and asked “so, why did you do it?”
    My mother had to pry me off of her.



    Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
    counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?
    Gac3

    Token vote for as token attempt to look townie.

  16. - Top - End - #166
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    CaoimhinTheCape's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Day is over! Checking votes...

  17. - Top - End - #167
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I don't think folk should pile on Emmy because 1) she could be the Princess and 2) her death won't yield any info (unless she flips wolf.) Inactives are bad for the game, but, in this game... seems not the best tactic, especially after discussion we've had thus far and some flips being interesting.

    Also, I'll note I do see how I seem wolfy. So I don't think my death should necessarily incriminate anyone who voted for me. Though I do find it oddly how strongly Mr. Popo goes against me (and AV), but maybe that's just my reaction to their overall tone.
    bladescape's comments make me think that Mr. Popo's tone is normal for him, and just seems out of place with how most folk in current games post.

    Also, while I have a neutral read on bladescape, I do feel that, if he flips wolf, Mr. Popo is likely Town. I can see a wolf doing some slight defending of Mr. Popo D1 to say the groundwork for him being considered a scumbuddy once the said wolf is lynched.
    Sorry for the votes, homie.

    Make more town and scum reads next game, be sure to suspect the people you vote.

    Don't drag yourself to the end of a day talking anout mechanics and claims only.

    And if you think I am town you probably should have led the charge onto a better target.

    Not trying and not doing is not solving

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I have no clue why Mr. Popo is.... ....but, then again, I didn't really read his posts from today in detail because it seems like I'm likely to get lynched
    You generally bother to read the posts made by the person you voted for who also says you are suspect.

    Or if that doesnt appeal, anyone else, and then make some legacy reads.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-11 at 10:03 PM.

  18. - Top - End - #168
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Vote Count:

    JeenLeen (5): BatCatHat, Snowblaze, bladescape, AvatarVecna, Rogan
    Mr. Popo (3): Libro, JeenLeen, Book Wombat
    gac3 (2): Xihirli, Mr. Popo
    EmmyNecromancer (1): gac3
    BatCatHat (1): Supagoof





    Discussion begins blind, accusations
    abound, yet there's no guilty admission.
    "Surely," some ask, "we can tell our stations?
    There are those who are above suspicion!"

    "But no, we can't! That tips our hand too soon!
    Queen's followers can act on that insight.
    It may help us some, to them it's a boon.
    They'll easily choose who sees morning's light!"

    Conversations commence, who's with the Queen?
    There's little to go on, choosing is hard.
    They settle on one, their best guess: JeenLeen
    The chosen brought out, along with a Guard.

    The accused brought away, Day's events done
    Choose your actions, sleep well, begin Night 1.



    JeenLeen and Guard Odette, Town, were arrested.




    Night 1 Ends Sunday, Sept. 12 at 11:00 PM EST /
    Monday, Sept. 13 at 4:00 AM Snow's time? /
    Monday, Sept. 13 at 5:00 AM CEST

    - - - Updated - - -

    For anyone unaware, you are allow to talk in this thread during the Night Phase, up to you guys if it's something that makes sense.


    For the end of the Night phase. Depending on what happens with targets against the Princess/Countess, it might not start right on time. If it doesn't, it'll probably wait for me to sleep so don't worry if it doesn't start right away.

  19. - Top - End - #169
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    To re-eval:
    Rogon

    To keep an eye on:
    Mr Popo

    To protect:
    Libro/Snow

    Basic thoughts from beneath a headache
    "Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"




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  20. - Top - End - #170
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    frown Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by JeenLeen View Post
    I buy gac3 really forgetting he already posted in this game. Neutral read.
    I never claimed to have forgotten I posted. I claimed to have forgotten the game started. I knew I posted once I remembered it was a thing. I just had forgotten completely that the game had started and didn't even bother to check and see if anything had happened. I was absent for only a day apparently but on the moment I thought it had been more than that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    You have a bit less than 2 hours left in the day.

    Ah, okay. I personally put this as "plausible differences ". Nothing I could clarify or clear up, I'm afraid.



    I hope there won't be no surprise reveals. I have to sleep soon, so I won't be able to react.
    I would like to ask you to state your opinion about the wagons before the day ends. It might not change things, but I would like to hear it anyway.
    Welp. I did not make it.


    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    This town never would let me forget. The newspapers, the interviews, the questions, the prying eyes. They all wanted to know. They talked about how tragic it was, how sad. It was infuriating.
    Once, though, one of the journalists looked me in the eyes and asked “so, why did you do it?”
    My mother had to pry me off of her.



    Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
    counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?
    Did you even read anything there other than "Claim princess"

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Gac3

    Token vote for as token attempt to look townie.
    It was not a token vote or an attempt to look townie. Also your whole "sorry Jeen, play the game next time" post came across rather rude to me. Not Wolfy. Just rude. People have different strategies than you and day one when there have been no flips, talking mechanics and people's claims might not be the "optimal strategy" but it's a valid one and it's one Jeen uses often.

  21. - Top - End - #171
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    My thoughts so far starting with those with the fewest posts.

    Supagoof: 2 posts... One which boils down to "I vote BCH" and one pointing out my tendency to refer to them as sugapoof. Literally nothing to go on. So inactive.

    Libro: 4 posts. Counterclaimed Mr. Popo's. Vote Mr. Popo. Said they wouldn't get anywhere with their analysis without information. Given the fact that the countess is a confirmed town role and they have not been counterclaimed, seems they are likely telling the truth.

    Xi: 9 posts. Votes Libro because its fun to kill libro. Weighed in against the role reveal plan. Some fluff posts. Voting Mr. Popo because of the counter claim. Stated that they see Mr. Popo's plan, removed vote, defended Jeen (in a way that makes sense and I agree with), and expressed a desire to find a new wagon. Voted an inactive. Then didn't catch Jeen actively stating their princess claim was fake and switched a vote to me. So all in all, town lean? Voting me makes sense though a wolf could easily do that too. The defense of Jeen was fair and looks even better after the flip. Supports pushing more discussion. Overall I got town read here.

    Bladescape: 10 posts. Voted Mr. Popo for opening post. Two posts which contributed nothing. Questioned why AV was suspicious and promised more thoughts to come. Voted Jeen, did not include reasons. Non contribution post mainly focused on saying "Mr. Popo is a good player but plays hard." Finally got some fluff filled reads. Note to self: Finish reading the long Bladescape fluff post filled with their reads. They also stated that its not normally open/close and then stated that I am either red or Jeen is. Not sure what makes them confident that that is the case. Defending Popo's style. Then two posts stating we should look at Rogan if Jeen flips green... Well Jeen flipped blue so, I assume that still applies. Will come back to Blade. Need to read the long fluff post before I give a verdict on if I think they are town or wolf or what. Overall, their other posts are not overly helpful for analysis.

    JeenLeen: 11 posts. Lock town.

    Book Wombat: 11 posts. RNG Rogan vote. Presented the possibility that the Princess or Countess is not in use. Pretty sure this is narrator confirmed to not be the case? Suggests the countess should sacrifice their self for the princess after the reveal. Agreed but also, the reveal isn't necessary for that. OMGUS on Mr. Popo. Stated their vote was not actually OMGUS. Noncontributing post. "I didn't know Mr. Popo called me out. I wouldn't have voted them had I known." "I might be lying to appear town." Weighed in about their random vote. Vote count list. Overall has contributed nothing yet has posted a good bit. This would be more suspicious but... this is pretty much bar for the course for Book. However they seem very nonchalant about their "hey, maybe I am a wolf" which does stand out as something I don't remember them doing before. So maybe a wolf who is trying a balls out "hey guys, I'm wolfy" strategy or just Book not caring how their posts look. I respect either but am unsure which it is.

    Gac3: 11 posts. Voted Sugapoof for a dumb reason. A noncontributing post. Posted that they "forgot the game had started" despite having posted twice. Defensive post about their forgetting, pulling the classic "if I was a wolf, why would I lie about this." Called out Mr. Popo who had called them out. Continued harassing Mr. Popo. Continued to contribute nothing except arguing with Mr. Popo about their claims. Voted an inactive. Three noncontributing posts making excuses and promising future posts that would contribute. Another post focused on Mr. Popo and next to nothing else. So far has not contributed anything useful and only seems to be concerned with defending themselves, not helping town. Not a good look and not quite their normal style. Definitely suspicious. But also they have claimed privately so that's a point in their favor, assuming I can believe them.



    I still have AV, Snow, BCH, Rogan, and Mr. Popo left to do but I'm going to do some chores and school work so I'll come back to those either in a few hours or after I sleep, depending on how long said chores/homework take.

    Also side note: This was an interesting way too follow the posts. Since I am pretty much reading most of this for the first time, I literally only read the posts of the person I was examining. Meaning I was fairly able to isolate their actual contributions and stuff. It might be more effective (for me at least) to just continue bringing people up individually and reading all of their posts out of context when I do big analysis.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I tried to use different shades to show my level of town read. I'm not sure it was clear so so far I have:

    Jeen
    Libro
    Xi

  22. - Top - End - #172
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Also side note: This was an interesting way too follow the posts. Since I am pretty much reading most of this for the first time, I literally only read the posts of the person I was examining. Meaning I was fairly able to isolate their actual contributions and stuff. It might be more effective (for me at least) to just continue bringing people up individually and reading all of their posts out of context when I do big analysis.
    That's the advantage of ISOs: you get to see patterns in how people talk more easily...and you can see inconsistencies in their positions as the argument shifts.

    That said...night-talking with analysis tends to be pro-scum since it helps guide the kill more than it helps guide townie powers (at least IME). And unlike most games we don't even have a real seer that can get a bit of use from hearing your reads.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  23. - Top - End - #173
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    That's the advantage of ISOs: you get to see patterns in how people talk more easily...and you can see inconsistencies in their positions as the argument shifts.

    That said...night-talking with analysis tends to be pro-scum since it helps guide the kill more than it helps guide townie powers (at least IME). And unlike most games we don't even have a real seer that can get a bit of use from hearing your reads.
    Fair. I can hold off on the rest until day. I don't see myself being a likely night kill given the likelihood I will get lynched.

  24. - Top - End - #174
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Xi: Then didn't catch Jeen actively stating their princess claim was fake and switched a vote to me.
    No, I did. Hence the “is this a 500 IQ etc”
    Spoiler: Quotes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  25. - Top - End - #175
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    This wall explains what I have been thinking about overnight and what my reads currently are

    In case I die ahead of the claimed countess, which can happen in worlds where

    1. my town core is extremely right,
    2. extremely right but there is 1 wolf in it,
    3. or my suspects are mostly wolves even though Jeen was not a wolf,
    4. OR I suck out loud and the wolves want you to follow me after I die even though my reads are bad, but that did not happen this game. I'd wager the game on that.


    I need to put them out there one more time and help my villagers realize where I was truly confident and where they can feel free to poke and disagree with me a lot without me ever complaining about it in postgame.

    I also want to open my notebook and my playbook fully, so it is easier to process and understand my own slot.

    Communication is key, from this point onward, there is zero bluster, zero lying, and I will be playing the game exactly like a Lawful Good player would.

    I go Chaotic Good for gambits and tricks, for pro town lies, and to withhold important information from the wolf team. However, once that ploy has succeeded or failed, I immediately shift to Lawful Good play.

    Which means zero dishonesty, zero embellishment, zero in character, zero humor.

    Just flat, boring, predictable, honest villaging.








    Here is the entire playbook and notebook, fully revealed.

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    To re-eval:
    Rogon

    To keep an eye on:
    Mr Popo

    To protect:
    Libro/Snow

    Basic thoughts from beneath a headache
    Yes to all of this, but I am still going to be protecting:

    Libro- mechanically never a wolf except in the absolute dumbest circumstance which I immediately discount, I just want you to know, I considered it.

    AvatarVecna- There is no way they are a wolf. Ever. Take this read to the bank and never waver. Wolves I attack do not do this in literally any game I have ever played. Not one, not in over 500 games. Never happened, not once. So you literally bet the game on this read.

    Xihirli- actual reasons why town have to be looked at again, to make sure I am not blind spotting here. However, after looking over her again, unless I can formulate some setup where the wolf team must include her, I will never yeet here.

    Bladescape- his reaction to me is always a townie one. Sorry, it is that simple. You don't believe it, you can make a case and try to persuade everyone else and/or me. Give me your best shot, because I am not moving otherwise. And it has to be a slam dunk case.


    I will look at again:

    Snow, because now Jeen wasn't scum therefore some of the reason to townread there has vanished. But not much of it. You have to have some serious gonads (of any gender) to do what she did and then the rest of it looks amazeballs too. But for completeness, thoroughness, and because I need to rebuild the core.

    Batcathat- with Jeen being town, some of the reasons to town read here have vanished. Still gives me great feelings. Feelings, however, is not superior to reasons or evidence. Will re-look.

    Rogan- With Vecna my top town read and Jeen town, Rogan must be examined much more closely.

    Everything about him feels great, but feelings and some small reasons are not nearly as good as multiple strong reasons.

    Supagoof: Because gac3 is not proven wolf. If gac is wolf, Goof is town. If Gac is town, goof can be a wolf. Essentially, neither slot warrants a solid town read. But they are also not paired. So you never, ever execute both of them if one of them flips guilty.

    So if you were to hit Goof and he flipped wolf? Gac is clear even though I cannot otherwise clear gac by gac's posts alone. I don't think you do it in that order, but reasses both on day 2 and make it a contest between them which one seems more loyal. More loyal, not more posting or more solving, because wolves can post and solve. Alignment is the only consideration, not effort.

    EmmyNecro has to post very well on day 2 or they are now in danger. There should never be a third day that reads like day 1, so if there is a second, you have to execute here.

    Rogue has to post very well on on day 2 or they are now in danger. There should never be a third day that reads like day 1, so if there is a second, you have to execute here.

    Particularly if the town core is still solid
    . There is now less room for guilty parties among the active, especially if I can re-confirm the core.

    You can have 1 day of being a slanky villager. If you have 2, you are warned I just lost a game to someone who did nothing to ever be town read, had 1 suspect for 4 days, and was one of the lowest posters, despite wrecking the entire rest of their scum team. I will not repeat that.

    Book Wombat and gac3 always contains at least 1 wolf. I am mildly confident about that still. I will explore any possible world where these are both townies with full sincerity, but I lean against that. I don't usually go zero for three. I can't remember the last game I actually played where I did, it would have been 5 years ago by now or more.

    That said, as blustery as I am, the reason why I don't usually go zero wolves found in games is because I do expect that the zero for three game will happen, somehow, sometime, this game could be it.

    I do examine that for possibility. And when I do, and I realize thats probable, I reverse and find a wolf. That's why I don't have games where I have no wolves found anymore.

    I'll be extensively diving both while I am alive day 2 as my top priorities. I have bad day ones, I literally never have bad day 2s.

    In the past I dunno 15 games I have played as town, I have hit a wolf on the first day I have been in play, and if not, literally always on the second.

    That's my bar I have to hit in order to be tolerated. If I fail to meet that bar, then I deserve to lose, and it also means that the rest of you have to do the following:

    1) Town read me correctly in spite of never being wrong twice in a row, while being wrong twice in a row.
    2) Ignore me and correctly find actual disloyal scumbags over my own blind objections.

    So, you can carry me, it is possible. It just never happens outside of turbos.

    And @gac3

    Spoiler
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    I will look into being less rude. However, what is rude is very subjective.

    I have been going for not rude, but pointed and critical. How you play should be fair game for critiquing as long as you are not criticizing ad hominem. Your votes, actions, beliefs, suggested courses of action, all have to be fair game otherwise I just won't play here again.

    I feel that's the fair, fine line. I try real hard not to be rude to the person.

    If you feel I haven't met that criteria I will redouble my efforts.


    The information gained from JeenLeen's reveal is that certain people sincerely believed Jeen was town or mafia, and some people may not have sincerely believed either one, and their reactions are now readable if the mafia were active at all. I know how to read those reactions and my accuracy on that aspect is very high.

    I will also do a very thorough set of unpairings for the entire game so far. There are many.

    Chin up.

    Yes, there will be less bluster going forward, but it is necessary for town to have a TOWN-lead wagon onto someone town legitimately suspects on day one, for cold reading purposes.

    If mafia control the discussion on day one, it is hard for town to recover from that.

    Town is currently in control, due to initiative, thread presence, volume, post quality, interactions generated, reads generated, and because lots of townies currently town read each other.

    Jeen, nothing personal, and I will work 1000 times harder now that you have flipped town, to make it up to you.

    We have the initiative and enough tools and information now to crush the game. Appearing confident even when slightly less confident means people tend to believe you believe in your beliefs.

    My role model on this is Captain Picard of Star Trek The Next generation.

    In several episodes he lampshaded or explicitly referenced the fact that when someone is leading, they need to project confidence, even if they are not sure, and don't know what they are doing.

    Spoiler
    Show
    Captain Jean-Luc Picard:
    [checking the map] This way. [moves on]

    Doctor Beverly Crusher:
    You don't really know, do you?

    Captain Jean-Luc Picard:
    What?

    Doctor Beverly Crusher:
    I mean, you're acting like you know exactly which way to go, but you're only guessing. Do you do this all the time?

    Captain Jean-Luc Picard:
    No, but there... are times when it is necessary for a captain to give the appearance of confidence.


    Now, there is a reason for that.

    Everyone has their own opinions. They are usually scattered all over the place. For a collective of people of differing opinions to work well together, they need to find areas of agreement.

    Whether they slightly agree, strongly agree, or disagree but are willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and follow, you can create a larger consensus and be more effective in putting pressure on your target if you have people who believe in your leadership capabilities.

    When they are having doubts, they hold fast, because the responsibility lies on the shoulders of the person they have elected to follow, who has laid out a path forward.

    Now, sometimes that path forward is wrong, but we didn't get caught up in arguing about it too much and pulling in two different directions forever and ever. We went one way, and then, decided or found out it was wrong, and now we can re-assess, and reverse course, and do that together, with a lot less infighting, and a lot less doubt.

    The disloyal parties have no such weaknesses, they know exactly which courses of action win.

    They know who they can trust, and they know who they can safely pocket. They can move as a unit.

    Early game, scattered about, with little but mechanics talk, and discussing claiming, it is difficult for town to read anyone, it is difficult for town to be confident in any course of action, or be confident in any one. It is difficult to build consensus. It is difficult for the fog of war to be penetrated.

    If you follow a town leader who is correct, you just win the game quickly.

    Now, obviously, that doesn't always happen, but if it was town leading the charge, it is easier for us to reassess, because there was a charge.

    There was beliefs. There was processes. There were things to cold read. It wasn't just a listless, disorganized jumble of votes all over the place.

    There were theories being discussed, towncores being built, alignments being guessed, and we never forced the Princess to claim.

    Part of why I believe Jeen had to go was because he very explicitly dropped all princess cover many times.

    Wolves do not care about that, and sometimes townies do not as well, but if I am going to lead my people anywhere, to any incorrect target, it will be someone who:

    1) Did not have many town reads
    2) Did not vote for the people they legitimately suspected
    3) Did not have much content outside of the mechanics speculation
    4) Is explicitly not the princess, after being cold read not the princess at least three different ways before that was even verified.

    So I made sure we did not force a Princess claim, because I had someone I legitimately suspected, several other townies legitimately suspected, and who had spewed themselves Not Princess.

    I also got a lot more out of the Countess claiming than if nothing had happened before that, and it was just Snowblaze: Countess claim and Libro: Sure, thats me.

    And because I made it clear, and directly spoke to Libro after they softed they were countess, what I was doing, I spoke directly to Libro and said I was covering for him to make sure he did not die at night (go back, read it, I literally said that out loud directly to him by name)

    It was in fact still Libro's voluntary decision to come forward. He could have stayed hidden.

    I even provided him cover after his soft, by giving a plausible alternative interpretation of it,

    That's not how I read it at all. If Libro were counterclaiming me they would have said so. More likely, they don't think anyone but a wolf would just start claiming stuff for no reason and promoting a mass claim, which is terrible in this setup. If Libro were a wolf they would welcome such a mass claim.

    They just have to keep looking and they will see I explicitly said it was a bad idea and that no one else should claim today, otherwise it becomes easy to narrow down where the Princess is.
    You see this?

    This is me still trying to keep Libro hidden after he's no longer properly hidden.

    I kept a town doctor alive all game once after they explicitly claimed a town power role (just not which one) multiple times by pointing out key aspects of the claim being false-looking and then suggesting they were trying to draw the night kill. That argument worked, that doctor lived through the entire game, and I never voted for that player, and they never had to hard claim, and they pretended to be vanilla townie forever after that.
    Spoiler
    Show
    You want links for all these references I will be happy to provide in postgame. Focus on this one.


    We could have in fact gotten through day one with:

    1) A hidden princess
    2) A hidden countess
    3) wolves believing I was the countess, and then I would be dead in a few hours.

    That was my plan. I tried REALLY HARD to make that plan work after Snowblaze suggested the countess claim.

    Anyway.

    I have done the sneaky rogue thing, I have done the try to stab the wolves in the back thing, I have done my gambit thing, I have lied, I did the fancy plays, I put on the mask, I played in character, I did all the bluster, I projected the confidence, I did my job.

    Day Two will be different in the following ways:

    1) I will never ever lie about anything, ever again, for the remainder of play. So be careful what you ask me.

    2) I will not project more confidence than I actually have. Follow me or don't, I will follow you if I like your case work and also think you are confidently town. Or, if you are "in the box" meaning my top suspect(s), if you make a solid case against another top suspect and I believe it, guess what I'd love to kill any disloyal person, and find you town if you are.

    If you are out of the box, I will be eventually rereading you to confirm, and if you are teal or green, I will be prioritizing you for a reread and confirm, so I can lock you properly now that we have actual information for the first time.

    Day One locks are not as solid as Day Two locks, or day three locks, etc. Later in the game locks are superior to early in the game locks.

    Being a suspect does not mean I will ignore you. But don't think you can convince me to hit Libro or AV literally ever again, or Blades or Xihirli without being a confident town read of mine combined with a staggeringly good case.

    3) The thread needs room to breathe. If I have extensive replies to questioning, theyre going in spoilers. I will be spending most of the day doing isos and rereads and meta diving past games. That takes far more hours than I spent in thread day one.

    Which means I will be posting, but not thread captaining. I will be extremely busy.

    Spoiler: oog
    Show
    I also have a 1 week old and a 1 year old and a wife who needs my help, so you get me for a few hours before bed and scattered sporadically elsewhere briefly only.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-12 at 02:55 PM.

  26. - Top - End - #176
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Suggests the countess should sacrifice their self for the princess after the reveal. Agreed but also, the reveal isn't necessary for that.
    I didn't really suggest the Countess should sacrifice herself for the Princess after the reveal, I was remarking that the only thing a Countess can do after the Princess' reveal is either sacrifice herself or not as all other actions are blocked.
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  27. - Top - End - #177
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    My thoughts so far starting with those with the fewest posts.

    Supagoof: (1) 2 posts... One which boils down to "I vote BCH" and one pointing out my tendency to refer to them as sugapoof. Literally nothing to go on. So inactive.

    Libro: 4 posts. Counterclaimed Mr. Popo's. Vote Mr. Popo. Said they wouldn't get anywhere with their analysis without information. Given the fact that the countess is a confirmed town role and they have not been counterclaimed, seems they are likely telling the truth.

    Xi: 9 posts. Votes Libro because its fun to kill libro. Weighed in against the role reveal plan. Some fluff posts. Voting Mr. Popo because of the counter claim. (2) Stated that they see Mr. Popo's plan, removed vote, defended Jeen (in a way that makes sense and I agree with), and expressed a desire to find a new wagon. Voted an inactive. (3) Then didn't catch Jeen actively stating their princess claim was fake and switched a vote to me. So all in all, town lean? Voting me makes sense though a wolf could easily do that too. The defense of Jeen was fair and looks even better after the flip. Supports pushing more discussion. Overall I got town read here.

    Bladescape: 10 posts. Voted Mr. Popo for opening post. Two posts which contributed nothing. Questioned why AV was suspicious and promised more thoughts to come. Voted Jeen, did not include reasons. Non contribution post mainly focused on saying "Mr. Popo is a good player but plays hard." Finally got some fluff filled reads. Note to self: Finish reading the long Bladescape fluff post filled with their reads. They also stated that its not normally open/close and then stated that I am either red or Jeen is. Not sure what makes them confident that that is the case. Defending Popo's style. (4) Then two posts stating we should look at Rogan if Jeen flips green... Well Jeen flipped blue so, I assume that still applies. Will come back to Blade. Need to read the long fluff post before I give a verdict on if I think they are town or wolf or what. Overall, their other posts are not overly helpful for analysis.

    JeenLeen: 11 posts. Lock town.

    Book Wombat: 11 posts. RNG Rogan vote. Presented the possibility that the Princess or Countess is not in use. Pretty sure this is narrator confirmed to not be the case? Suggests the countess should sacrifice their self for the princess after the reveal. Agreed but also, the reveal isn't necessary for that. OMGUS on Mr. Popo. Stated their vote was not actually OMGUS. Noncontributing post. "I didn't know Mr. Popo called me out. I wouldn't have voted them had I known." "I might be lying to appear town." Weighed in about their random vote. Vote count list. Overall has contributed nothing yet has posted a good bit. (5) This would be more suspicious but... this is pretty much bar for the course for Book. However they seem very nonchalant about their "hey, maybe I am a wolf" which does stand out as something I don't remember them doing before. So maybe a wolf who is trying a balls out "hey guys, I'm wolfy" strategy or just Book not caring how their posts look. I respect either but am unsure which it is.

    Gac3: (6) 11 posts. Voted Sugapoof for a dumb reason. A noncontributing post. Posted that they "forgot the game had started" despite having posted twice. Defensive post about their forgetting, pulling the classic "if I was a wolf, why would I lie about this." Called out Mr. Popo who had called them out. Continued harassing Mr. Popo. Continued to contribute nothing except arguing with Mr. Popo about their claims. Voted an inactive. Three noncontributing posts making excuses and promising future posts that would contribute. Another post focused on Mr. Popo and next to nothing else. So far has not contributed anything useful and only seems to be concerned with defending themselves, not helping town. Not a good look and not quite their normal style. Definitely suspicious. But also they have claimed privately so that's a point in their favor, assuming I can believe them.

    I still have AV, Snow, BCH, Rogan, and Mr. Popo left to do but I'm going to do some chores and school work so I'll come back to those either in a few hours or after I sleep, depending on how long said chores/homework take.

    Also side note: This was an interesting way too follow the posts. Since I am pretty much reading most of this for the first time, I literally only read the posts of the person I was examining. Meaning I was fairly able to isolate their actual contributions and stuff. It might be more effective (for me at least) to just continue bringing people up individually and reading all of their posts out of context when I do big analysis.

    - - - Updated - - -

    (7)
    I tried to use different shades to show my level of town read. I'm not sure it was clear so so far I have:

    Jeen
    Libro
    Xi
    This is villagery.

    I will bold the parts I mean and number each.

    First bolded: Yes, that is worse than zero posting. First post was good, but not like, instant town read good. Is only really town when you're a wolf, Gac. Otherwise coasted under the radar like a wolf deliberately, about 50 percent likely or more. And now that I town read you slightly, Supagoof is now out of my greens entirely. Particularly since they were not discussed much after I town read them.

    You are still unpaired, and odds are one of you is a wolf. Now I'm leaning the other way.

    See, there is a hurdle for being a villager, and you currently soared over it, and Supa has not.

    There will be bigger and bigger and bigger hurdles, and far more difficult challenges, and cases to be made, evidence needed, and narrower and narrower needles to thread as I can keep raising that particular challenge bar, because as the game unfolds, it is now possible for villagers to meet that bar because they actually have information now.

    Why the bars for town reads were so low so far? Because town doesn't have jack yet, except the stuff some people who worked very hard on day one generated for us to read.

    Second bolded: You were semi specific. "In a way that made sense and I agreed with."

    It wasn't that they were correct. It was why they were correct.

    That's why I can town read you for that particular line. You are not doing the wolfy generic thing which is "they were right, town read."

    You're wolfing harder and smarter than that, if you are a wolf. Supa has yet to do anything remotely competent as a wolf, except keep their head down.

    Therefore, you have cleared one level of difficulty and Supa is still on the first level. That drops Supa.

    Third bolded: Noted Xi has a lack of information tell. Indicative of town alignment. Wolves don't want to give out these kinds of town credits for these kinds of reasons, unless they are a level 5 wolf or higher. Especially when you think you're next to die, you don't want to spew people town for reasons that look like you were trying to pocket them, that hurts all your live wolf teammates.

    Fourth bolded: This is about where I think a villager who doesn't know how I can clear blades so easily would be at, if they need to try to clear blades.

    This isn't very strong or reliable, but what it is, is subtle.

    I rely on subtle, the stuff that I think wolves are doing subconsciously to indicate they are a wolf, because they don't realize they are doing it.

    Wolves go for NOT subtle things, in order to be town read.

    It has to matter to people.
    It has to be noticable.
    It has to significantly move people's reads, or it isn't worth the possible spew.
    It often involves pocketing a townie hard, or bussing a buddy hard, or other really visible, conscious movements, to impress people.

    Wolves never remember to do the subtle stuff. The stuff that can indicate townie to the 1 in 100 player who thinks the way I do.

    You're playing to a crowd. You do not play to the one guy you're planning on murdering soon anyway. Especially if you are planning on discrediting him the next day if he is alive. And you shouldn't really be choosing the "pocket Mr. popo" plan after that day one, ever, if your name is Gac3.

    That's too unlikely to have happened. So gac is not playing directly against my type of analysis in creating this subtle clues he is town.

    Subtle is more convincing to me than strong. Because it is accidental.

    I do not see a wolf doing this bit.

    Fifth Bolded: I think if Book and Gac3 were partners, Gac's summary would not have been so honest, about how they've contributed nothing. And if Gac was distancing from partner Book Wombat, it would be more indicative of an incoming bus, not taking a mixed read stand. The specifics read as actual conflict in a townie's brain, as opposed to wolfy taking two positions for no reason. This uncertainty doesn't look fake.

    However, I weigh this very little, because good wolves can do this. It's why I find the previous indicator much more reliable, because good wolves don't do that. Only the very greatest do.

    Still, more points in favor. Call it a single point since it's less reliable.

    Sixth bolded: Wolves tense up under attack.

    Why did AvatarVecna go to my top town? Their reaction to my megapush and large wagon on them, and then the increasingly deep thoughts that looked less and less fakeable.

    Why am I reading gac3 town now? Because Gac has all the reason in the world to be super tense.

    If Gac the wolf knows killing me will just make him dead tomorrow, and not killing me will just make him dead tomorrow, all he has left is trying to look more villagery and trying to get someone besides himself who is widely suspected dead as well.

    Gac should also be quite tense from all the attack leveled against him.

    Instead, Gac is lampshading how objectively bad he looks so far, and jokingly wolf cased himself in a humorous manner. Like, genuinely funny. Not even tense-wolf trying to force humor kind of funny.

    Putting his own name as 2/3 red versus blue is a class act, that can't be topped this game except by Vecna themself.

    Gac is not tense. Not even remotely.

    Now that's one small hurdle good wolves can clear, is not caring, and going about your business.

    Combine it with the 6 other town tells, and I am sorry, but you have to be a level 5 wolf or better to pull this off.

    If gac were a level 5 wolf, then their town game would have been more.... uh... townie. On day one.

    Just saying. Level 5 wolves usually try not to die day one, and they know how to act like townies.

    It shouldn't be that simple but it often is. The only high level wolves who don't do that are the ones known for an "openwolfing" style as both alignments, like Mantichora from MU, who always looks like a wolf every day of every game, under all circumstances, because they literally wrote the article about how to open wolf.

    I doubt gac is the one in 1000 player who plays like Mantichora, and I doubt level 5 wolf gac forgets how to pretend to be a townie on day one.

    Remove all the impossible (or as likely as to be impossible) and whatever remains is most likely to be the truth.

    Seventh bolded: Putting JeenLeen in their town lists isn't a derp attempt. They know this person is town because this was posted well after the flip, as indicated by the part where under the entry for Jeen they simply put lock town.

    Libro and Xi make sense to me. If Gac were wolfing, one would think they would try to pocket or townread more people than that.

    Overall, not a manipulation move. Not a diplomatic move. Not a counterattack. Not a "hit others in the POE who are widely suspected to pretend to be solving" move. Not level 5 wolfing, not Mantichora style open-wolfing, making plausible points, plausible suspicions, and hitting the people in this game most likely to be a wolf whenever gac3 is actually town. Process reads exactly precisely correct. Beliefs seem genuine. Subtle indicators going off that only the best wolves can fake. Stuff that seems to be riding the fence is actual genuine looking struggle with reasons why a townie should be struggling forming a definitive lean. Especially after I called out people for fence riding. It is trivial for a wolf to have a lean on
    bladescape here. Go with consensus which is that they are town, for reasons many people stated, or say they are a wolf for reasons. generate a case out of anything they posted, suggest it is low under the radar wolfing. Its trivial. The fact that that lean is conflicted and the fact that there are GOOD reasons for that read to be conflicted indicates actual townie struggle.

    Actual solving of the game, actual POV of no info, actual no agenda, actually a villager. Actually not tense. Actually concerned about how disruptive I am being to the game, which isn't alignment indicative but falls under "not diplomatic" towards someone who lied, got counterclaimed, and is still the town leader it seems. You generally defer to folks with that much heft, not poke them for non alignment indicative reasons.


    Conclusion: Gac3 is now my third highest rated villager under AvatarVecna.

    Do you see what is possible when people generate reactions and believe in their beliefs?

    It's easier for me to read someone when they are here posting stuff they genuinely believe.

    My god, I could have gotten there a long time ago had this been posted on day one.

    But day one, Jeen hadnt flipped, and gac hadnt been made into top suspect number 2 yet.

    All of that had to happen before gac would pull off a post this magnificent.

    I am telling you guys, we had an amazeballs day one that should be generating a metric ton of spew and alignment indicative beliefs.

    All "tells" of town I used for any villager this game will not be repeated for future attempts.

    After I have said the tell it is now null for the remainder of the game.

    It was important to out all of these tells to clear Gac, because I clearly made a mistake on his alignment as well.

    That's AV rescued from suspicion, and Gac, and Jeen flipped, which leads me directly to....


    Book Wombat (still)
    Supagoof (now, because Gac seems town)
    Inactive people (one of these is still likely to be town, or both)
    Possibly one of Rogan, Bat, or Snow, but essentially never 2 of those, and no one higher on the list.

    Look at Rogan first, of my greens.
    Book and Supagoof are now orange, as well as the inactives, and Rogan is now yellow.

    That's my N1 corrections.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Too long, did not read?

    Good wolves don't have the kind of day 1's that Gac had.
    Bad wolves don't have the kind of night 1's that Gac had.

    When Gac is neither a good nor a bad wolf, Gac is a townie.

    It's that simple.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I accuse Emmy Necromancer of being a wolf if they do not post amazingly well on Day 2.

    Rogue likely forgot the game existed at all, of the zero posters.

    Either get in here or get dunked.

    You have all of Day 2 to reverse opinions. My vote would be elsewhere to give you space.

    - - - Updated - - -

    The inactives (Emmy and Rogue) have Day 2 to catch up on the game as if it were their Day 1.

    They need space, so they can read, comprehend, catch up, form reads.

    Of the two inactives, if you must dunk one on day 2, I prefer Emmy over Rogue since Emmy should have been here by now, in this thread, posting something.

    In the meantime, much better endgame analysis can be created out of pressuring your more active suspects.

    If Emmy is a wolf, guess what? She isn't going anywhere fast. She will always be wolf read for not being here all of day and night one.

    That's trivial to hit later on. The wolves that can win the game have posted already.

  28. - Top - End - #178
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Final reads on Night One, after the re-assessment:




    Out of the Box forever
    JeenLeen pushing up the daisies
    Libro genuinely lock town
    AvatarVecna genuinely lock town
    gac3 Difficulty level 7 for this to be a wolf

    Special tier:
    Rogue_Alchemist- null inactive that is almost always town when the other inactive is a wolf, because of math, actual real math. For both to be wolves, the odds are extremely long, because it is an order of magnitude more rare for that to be true. Because of math, you do not hit both inactive players. You ignore the inactive person who probably forgot the game existed entirely, and focus on the ones that should have been here.

    Candidate to leave the Box
    bladescape- is just town to me, but I need more evidence to convince the rest of you. He can do all of this as a wolf, so he can't leave the box yet.

    Re-assess but very confident town.
    Xihirli- town read I shall reassess but feel confident in.
    BatCatHat- Beautiful waterfall thoughts. However, wasn't really in a position of difficulty at any point if they are a wolf. Still, check for unpairings and re-iso and reassess.
    Snowblaze- Either a brilliant and bold wolf, or just town. Re-assess to be sure.

    Suspects:
    Rogan- Took too many wrong positions and multiple positions at the same time. Kept options open too much, so this is the wolfiest of my previously green. Immediately turns orange when anyone below here is The Princess or is otherwise confirmed town, which shouldn't happen since there is no cop.
    EmmyNecromancer- D1 is a wolf more than it is town. Reassess if they become super active D2.
    Supagoof- D1 is a wolf more than it is town. But will assess.
    Book Wombat- D1 is a wolf more than it is town. But will assess.

    Special Tier:
    Mr. Popo-
    Spoiler: Popo's meta
    Show
    Has to be mentioned in any list of the greatest wolves of all time, just happens to be not a wolf this game. If I miss on day 2, or if I ever miss twice in a row at ANY time, I'm a wolf 95 percent of the time. This can happen in one in 20 games, and never lately. Thus the pressure I have on myself to get this right. If I am alive in final (number) lynch correctly or lose, and I was in the game on day one, I am a wolf 99 percent of the time. I don't need to be town read by anybody. Keep me suspected and I will devour the entire wolf team myself, all by myself, in a cage, three on one. I will be the one doing literally all of the offense in that cage, and I will destroy them in every conceivable manner. Put me at the top of your suspects list all day, every day, until every single last wolf is dead. Bladescape can personally confirm all of this is both true and not an exaggeration of my real meta. I am not hiding any of it. Therefore, put all the wolves in a cage, and put me in the cage with them, and watch the blood pour forth.


    Superior to all of these reads is when I do the full set of unpairings analysis on every player.

    So I can't D2 lock any of this in yet except I think the blues are permanent now.

    Once the unpairings analysis is done the game should be over. There will be too many avenues of victory closed off after that.

    @Bladescape, you know exactly how to do the unpairings if I die. Do them for me in my absence, and be thorough, be fair, and be accurate. Tell literally everyone here what unpairings are and how to do them, ask them to give it a try.

    When every townie in the game tries their hand at unpairings, it'll be over.

    The wolves will be no match for you. D1 was too strong.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh wow, I actually double posted. I've been here that long and going that hard with no one else here.

    Nice. I forgot the board even did that.

    I feel a lot better about D2 no matter what happens tonight.

    JeenLeen dying D1 should be the only mistake town makes this game, if we work together properly day 2.

  29. - Top - End - #179
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    bladescape's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Me pregame: I'm gonna be casual this game.
    Mr Popo: *Exists*
    Me: Well there goes my plans.



    I'm not going to lie, my favourite part of that post was the whole "Bladescape can do everything so far as wolf."

    Because it's true.

    And I was going to call you out on that if you tried to hard-town me because I was already sus of the early "Blade is town" approach you had. Mostly because I know you know I can do this as wolf. And while I'm not AS good as I was before I took my 6 year hiatus (maybe) Mr Popo is always aware of Blade's wolf range, given the number of fun games we've had.

    I want to verify, btw, that this could all come from a wolf Mr Popo. Absolutely keep an eye on him as the game goes.

    BUT that being said I'm leaning towards him being town this game.

    The reason?

    His thoughts on several things have matched mine. Other than how hard he stuck on AV early on when I already flipped onto Jeen for the "Kill Snow to check the plan" post, he's fairly consistently in the same vein of thought as me.

    There is one possible sus part:
    He had Rogan as towny up until I voiced to re-check him.

    It's decently possible if Rogan is w that Mr Popo is possibly wolf too. Not guaranteed. Not "Lock that vote in if one of them flips". Just a possibility. Because Rogan had a good D1 in terms of post quality, but his positioning in thread was weird. That's why I made my "re-assess" post. And immediately after that Mr Popo tumbles the guy down the list. If he's town it's because he actually re-assessed.

    If it's wolf it's because he knows that I know him defending Rogan here would not be in line with the level of thought process I'd expect from him here.

    Either way. I'll try to do gamestate thoughts later but I gotta do work now so I'll be back in like...

    9ish hours?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also unpairing is simple but also complex.

    It's called "Check who each person could be a wolf with."

    Because if there's 3 wolves and one person could only be wolf with one person then no matter how sus they act they're probably town.

    That being said, this is subject to wifom and you have to have good reason to unpair but anyway.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also Mr Popo get some rest.

    But why Emmy? Of the 0 posters?

    Or did Emmy actually post today.
    "Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"




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  30. - Top - End - #180
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    Also Mr Popo get some rest.

    But why Emmy? Of the 0 posters?

    Or did Emmy actually post today.
    Really? He kinda broadcast his reason, and after I checked, it's pretty legit.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: nothing currently.

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    It's always AvatarVecna time.

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