A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #211
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I decided to start with gac since he's both one of the people I'm most unsure about and he hasn't been super active so I figured it'd be quick. Yeah, that was pretty wrong, these things take time. I'll do more tomorrow but I'm not sure I'll have time to do (more or less) post by post analysis on everyone I'd want to.

    Writing this, I also realized that I might be kind of an anti-Popo in that I tend to argue against myself and ending up seeming (and feeling) unsure about everything. So there's a lot of "on one hand... but on the other hand...". I blame the fact that I've rarely met an argument I don't want to disagree with, even when it's my own.

    Spoiler: ISO on gac3
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    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Sugapoof because i was going to vote BCH and you beat me too it.
    That's about as good a motivation for an early D1 vote as any other. It's nice how he didn't pile onto me (but considering how the one time I jumped on a very early wagon, people immediately suspected me, maybe a wolfy gac's just too smart to do it).

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    How I feel every game. I see the recruitment and am like "welp, I'm playing." Then the game roles around and I'm like... "Do I even know how to play this version?"
    This is pretty much how I feel too, so I can't really comment on whether or not it's suspect.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Oh man. I forgot this game started. I need to catch up.
    This is pretty weird. I could see missing that a game started or being too busy to post but forgetting a game you've already posted in has started? That is odd.

    But is it wolfy odd? I can't really see why a wolf would do it. He's already posted (and voted), so he's not exactly flying under the radar. Another reason could be to ďaccidentallyĒ miss some discussion he was afraid would make him look suspicious. But I can't really see what that would be. There was some discussion about Snow's plan and Popo's claim but I can't see why that would be worth ďhidingĒ from.

    Now that I think about it, why mention at all that he forgot the game? It hadn't been that long and I don't think anyone had questioned his absence (at least I can't find anything now). Maybe a wolf trying to look less threatening? But that might be stretching it.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Because I am not in other games right now and have school and overtime and got into the habit of only checking like every other day and after posting the first time I got busy. I honestly even now don't remember if this started yesterday or two days ago. (I plan to check after this reply.)

    Then someone said this makes me look vote worthy. I didn't spot anyone accusing me of being inactive or not talking, so what is the point of anyone, wolf or town, being all "I forgot the game was happening, if they aren't either telling the truth or defending against inactive targetting.
    Could be true. I kind of doubted it at the time but now I kind of feel gac might've had a point about there not being any point to do that as a wolf. Of course, there's no reason the excuse can't be true but gac still a wolf, so at best the whole thing's neutral.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Has Mr. Popo played before at a point I haven't? Because right now I'm wondering why they are staying so many people with such confidence are town. To the point that they claim their three wolf suspects are either it or wolves are inactive.

    That said I haven't read all of the posts. I have skimmed some of the bigger ones as I have just gotten off of work. Seems like Mr. Popo is a big suspect base on the number of times I saw him named in red. Is it just because of all this weird countess claim stuff?
    I too got fairly confused by Popo's playstyle, so I can see where gac's coming from.

    Talking about how he's just skimmed some posts could be setting up an excuse in case he's called out for something later. But it could also be the truth, Popo's posts are usually rather long and I might've skimmed once or twice myself.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    So I was going to call out Book Wombat for having their second post being to vote for the person who just called them out and that still feels off. But they have posted four times.

    What I did notice while looking at the stats though is that Supagoof has actually only posted twice.

    Yet is on Mr. Popos list of town. He did express hesitance but... This should be a null read based on the fact there's nothing there right? Am I missing something? It's one thing if it was "these three look Wolfy so Supagoof is probably town" but it wasn't. It seems off to me.

    Edit: having actually read more of the post, by Mr. Popos own wolf hunting logic that they shared... Supagoof should be on the list of wolf subjects for having voted for one of their town picks.
    More Popo talk. Not sure what to make of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I'm not saying context doesn't matter! I'm saying that you said the issue is that I gave no reason and voted "town" and then have contributed next to nothing (which is correct) but my point was that the person I vote literally fits that same description. They voted one of your top townies with no context and literally has done nothing else.
    Frustration with not being understood feels towny but it's not like it couldn't be faked.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Emmy because I'm still not caught up enough to have a bigger wolf dar than "vote inactive"
    Voting Emmy seems reasonable or at least not wolfy. Again talking about not having read (or at least not having analyzed) everything. Could be true, could be a wolf preemptively excusing himself.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Okay cool. I've only really noticed it as I moved through with snowblaze so I thought it was more person specific
    Same as above.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    The confusion is mainly on Mr. Popo. It's just so bizarre to just blanket say someone is lock town without a single flip. Like having leans is good. But to act as though it's the gospel truth and then frame your wolf suspicions around those town reads. Like i get that I look Wolfy and that's fair. But I am not struggling the logic which was used..
    Seems like a natural reaction to Popo's style, whether town or wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It's also worth mentioning that with how the votes are now, unless I find a really convincing argument or there is some major CFD going on, my vote is pretty inconsequential right now.

    Edit: my point being that while reads will be incoming, moving my vote is kind of meh at this moment.
    Could be an excuse by a wolf to not really taking a stand when a mislynch is pretty guaranteed anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It was not a token vote or an attempt to look townie. Also your whole "sorry Jeen, play the game next time" post came across rather rude to me. Not Wolfy. Just rude. People have different strategies than you and day one when there have been no flips, talking mechanics and people's claims might not be the "optimal strategy" but it's a valid one and it's one Jeen uses often.
    Defending Jeen could be a way to get some towncred knowing he's gonna get lynched anyway (basically what Xi said about herself). The annoyance with Popo feels very genuine, at least.

    I won't comment the big analysis post in detail, I don't think I noticed anything that hasn't already been said. Posting it at night seems odd and unwise but in the same way forgetting the game had started seemed odd. I'm not seeing why a wolf would post at night any more than a townie would.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan to start because Blade said we should look into Rogan and then Blade died. The rest of my review of day one to come.
    It's not the worst reason to vote someone but it could also be a deliberate plan to make Rogan look bad by killing blade. I did wonder why blade specifically was killed, I suppose this could be the reason. But blade was hardly the only one to say we should look closer at someone (which is an argument both against gac's logic and my own).

    Then a second big analysis post. A lot of the reasoning is fairly similar to my own, which is... good, I guess? I feel he might be onto something regarding Snow but I'll get back to that when I dig into her posts. Of course, ďthis person usually has better plans than thisĒ is basically why I voted Jeen and look how that turned out. Though the point about Snow usually pushing other people for reads is pretty good.


    Not sure what to make of it in general. I think the part about forgetting the game seems less wolfy than I thought at the time. He's kind of jumping around with his accusations but that could be a townie being unsure just as well as a wolf trying out different targets. All in all, I just read all his posts and is roughly as unsure about gac as when I started. Maybe it'll help if I sleep on it.

  2. - Top - End - #212
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Checkin

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    Busy day, will be available in around 8 hours or so.

  3. - Top - End - #213
    Barbarian in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Still - not 100% sure on Rogan. I would love to hear more from him.
    And I would love to tell you some more. But I hope, you will be patient. I am rather exhausted from work and will go to bed early(ish).
    I should have much more time tomorrow (rl time), since it's one of my days off.

    But there are some things I want to say before I sleep.

    - I'm still not convinced going for someone inactive would be good. It won't allow for many reads, since there are no posts of the players to read and only few reactions. It might be better to wait another day to see if things resolve themselves by the inactive rules. If they are still alive tomorrow (ig time), they had to be active at night. And this is a behavior that doesn't make any sense for a townie, so it will always be a wolf.

    - Snows plan seemed to be similar to something that happened in the Mafia Universe Tournament / Championship.
    Spoiler: Bucket Strat
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    The bucket strat made the town PRs claim early, without saying the role. This would force the wolves to kill them at night, since those roles would never be killed by lynch. At the same time, the doc would have a better chance to protect someone successfully. (The 3 town PRs are doc, 1 shot vig, who must not shoot n1 and a motion detector, who would learn if someone made a night action or was target of such an action. The wolves had a roleblocker)

    While I only skimmed some matches, I think this strategy was successful in all matches it was tried.

    Spoiler: Differences
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    Of course the setup is very different here, but the basic idea was the same. Make sure you start the game with as many guaranteed townies as possible. Now, the differences between the setups might change the effectiveness of the strat. It would certainly force a different approach for the mafia. In our case, they would have to try to remove the (hidden) maidens before they could target the Princess and Countess, while in the champs they could block and kill in the pool of 3, helpfully outlined by town.

    Where am I going with this? Well, I still think the basic idea is not bad. It has some risks and disadvantages, but advantages as well. It took me very long to understand why the princess should stay hidden. She still won't die during the day (if really necessary, claim in bold shortly before EoD) and she doesn't need to be known to be protected at night. This way the mafia might even waste a kill instead of shooting at unprotected villagers all the time. But that's an improvement to the original idea, not something completely different. (Did I miss another layer of hiding the princess? Feel free to wait until the game is finished before you answer this)
    Understanding the gambit a bit better, it improves my opinion about Mr Popo.
    My read on Snow remains positive. She wanted to help town with a decent plan. There are other positive things about her as well, but they were put forward by other players. From the top of my head, there is nothing I want to add. I might come back to this tomorrow (RL time), when I have more time, energy and a bigger screen.

    - I am glad that at least one player actually took the time to read my day 1 and analys it instead of only saying they would do so. Thank you, AV. Especially for the conclusion, of course. There are some points where I feel like you missed my point (for good or bad? Not sure). I will come back to them later.

    List of players I am not willing to vote for today:
    Snow - My paranoia of early day 1 was unnecessary. Her plan might not be optimal, but she had good intentions. She remains a strong town read. She is also the princess
    Library - Uncontested Countess claim.
    Mr Popo - I think I understand his motivation for the day 1 behavior better now. Some of the red flags I still had about him got dropped by this. He is a very active player as well and that's quite valuable for town. He is also the princess. And her father, but this is getting strange....
    AV - Actually doing things instead of talking about doing something. Active in general. Very observant in some regards (I wouldn't have noticed Emmy was active without getting here, for example) Survived the night, so killing her would not be funny anymore. She is also the princess Doesn't want to kill me
    Jeen, Blades - They are guaranteed to be town. They are also out of the match.

    List of players I tend to trust, but could convinced to vote if there are good arguments:
    Xi - She has to take a step back, since I won't use her RP/ letters as an argument for keeping her. But her play seems fine and somehow more like Crazy (where she was town) than PJ (where she was the first wolf to die).
    BatCatHat - I don't remember a single bad thing about him. Maybe he could be a bit more active. There are not many concrete good things about him as far as I can remember right now, but I am tired already, which definitely plays a role here. I might try an ISO when I am awake again.
    Rogan - He is not the princess. This is evil. I think, blades could have been partly to discredit me. He wants to reread me and promptly dies. In general, I am willing to die if it's necessary for the team. Especially if I know I made a big mistake. I might have made a mistake about the handling of the Princess claims, but that's not a big mistake, so you are better off hunting real wolves. At least, I didn't shoot the Seer this time

    Uncomfortable with voting for practical reasons:
    Emmy - If there is a wolf in the inactive players, she is much more likely to be the one. But we would not gain much Intel.

    Might vote for
    Book Wombat, Gac. Reasons will have to wait.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay, this was a longer post than I intended to do. Messed up the color codes, but they are corrected now.
    Now I am going to bed and sleep like a stone...

    Good night, see you tomorrow.
    Last edited by Rogan; 2021-09-13 at 05:46 PM.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions

  4. - Top - End - #214
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    BlackDragon

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    gac3 feels off, enough to warrant my vote over the inactives.

    No other wolf-y reads atm.

    Library
    LOL.

    Autocorrect strikes again?
    "Ye are who ye are on all o' yer days. All o' em. Includin' that worst an' tha best. Ev'ry single one counts. All tha way ta tha end."

    Spoiler: Extended signatures
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  5. - Top - End - #215
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I'll be getting ISOs done on the people I haven't done yet (so...basically everybody >.>) now that I've got some time. For now I'll say that I'm not happy with how quiet it is, given that D2 is now half over.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
    Everyone knows Wizards only become adventurers because it's the fastest way to get more Wizard levels.

  6. - Top - End - #216
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I don't have time to do the proper math to figure out how specifically true my following thoughts are but I'll check them later and provide the math.

    I'm actually wondering if we should lynch me or someone else who is high suspicion instead of inactives.

    The big reason to lynch inactives is because if they are both town and we mislynch today then we have lost three town members. The two of them amount to losing a whole day/night cycle. Because if they were active we would be able to afford two more deaths. So lynching them instead of a townie mislynch is appealing because we would only lose a day or night, not both. Except if we follow that strategy, it kills conversation because we aren't wolf hunting. So we lose today really. Lynching an inactive tells us nothing and guarantees we lose at least one whole day of productive accusations and defenses while maybe allowing us to survive another day or night. It's not really worth the trade. But my math may be off. If someone checks it before I can, feel free to shoot me down if I'm wrong. Point is doing a mislynch might be more productive than avoiding an auto lynch.

  7. - Top - End - #217
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Nov 2019

    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    The big reason to lynch inactives is because if they are both town and we mislynch today then we have lost three town members. The two of them amount to losing a whole day/night cycle. Because if they were active we would be able to afford two more deaths. So lynching them instead of a townie mislynch is appealing because we would only lose a day or night, not both. Except if we follow that strategy, it kills conversation because we aren't wolf hunting. So we lose today really. Lynching an inactive tells us nothing and guarantees we lose at least one whole day of productive accusations and defenses while maybe allowing us to survive another day or night. It's not really worth the trade. But my math may be off. If someone checks it before I can, feel free to shoot me down if I'm wrong. Point is doing a mislynch might be more productive than avoiding an auto lynch.
    I'm not the right person to check the math, but I've been having similar thoughts myself. Even if we get lucky and lynch an inactive wolf that doesn't really tell us anything.

    I'm also entertaining the unlikely but amusing idea that both Emmy and rogue are wolves and as inactive as they seem, leaving some poor third wolf to do all the work. They have my sympathy if that's the case, after my experiences as the one person cult.

    And yeah, it is pretty quiet. I expected waking up to a ton of new posts, rather than two. As with yesterday, I'll probably make the occasional post during my work hours but saving the more in-depth thinking until I get home.

  8. - Top - End - #218
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Yay, something I can talk about!

    Twelve alive, assume 9-3 or 8-4 then townflip today, town nightkilled, town!rogue and Emmy auto-lynch gives us 5-3 or 4-4 which... I did not realise the numbers were that bad.

    We could be in MyLo tomorrow. If there are four wolves, we could *lose* tomorrow. That is most definitely not worth an extra day's discussion, especially since it would only be half a day atp.

    Also: I'd be willing to bet there's a wolf in the inactives rn.

    Also also: we can still discuss things. In fact, since I see you still haven't looked at Rogan, gac3, could you do that? (I'll do the same if I can find time/WiFi today)
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  9. - Top - End - #219
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Also also: we can still discuss things. In fact, since I see you still haven't looked at Rogan, gac3, could you do that? (I'll do the same if I can find time/WiFi today)
    Hmm. Pushing gac for reads after gac being suspicious about you not pushing people for reads this game? It's not necessarily suspicious but...

  10. - Top - End - #220
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Hmm. Pushing gac for reads after gac being suspicious about you not pushing people for reads this game? It's not necessarily suspicious but...
    Fair point. Still not a wolf, though. Speaking of which... I think I need to do something about all this tinfoil coming my way.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  11. - Top - End - #221
    Titan in the Playground
     
    AvatarVecna's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Let's get a few small ones knocked out quickly.

    Spoiler: Supagoof ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap


    The roar of the crowd clamors over the bleachers. The peasants, despite the unrest in the castle, still clamor for a show. They have traveled in from their homesteads, their farmlands and towns, to see a performance after all. The crowd even managed to get in sync on the same page for a chant.

    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    We will, we will, joust you
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    We will, we will, joust you


    Sir Goof couldn't help but chuckle at the ridiculousness. With his armor on, atop his steed, he asks for his lance. He scans the audience, and sees that the royal box is empty. No king, certainly no queen, and sadly - no princess. Sir Goof had hoped to win her favor this day, but with the events of last night, she has gone into hiding to protect herself. Goof had even gone so far as to wear her colors, purple and gold. With worried dismay, Goof sets his sights down the field. His opponent, clad in heavy iron armor with colors of black and red, was ready before him. His shield bore a strange insignia - a BatCatHat. Sir Good pondered at the origins.
    Randvote on BCH with no given reason. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Who's Sugapoof?
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    This would be correct, as I don't check my PC very often on the weekends. Need to get back into the habit of checking the site from my phone.

    Worse though is I did not get a night action in. So I'm sitting here guessing based only on the townreads. I likely would have targeted Rogan because other people I would have targeted (who are Snow - because she is very good on both sides of the coin in these games, BCH - because he has peeked my interest as being very good in these games, or Mr. Popo - let's see what the new guy is doing) I would choose not to target right away since being second to lowest on action resolution would likely have resulted in no result - given the interference and such.

    I will happily thrown myself on the sword for such a misstep, as that does move forward with what my role is - guarding the princess. But since I can do more good alive then dead, let's see who is pinging as suspect this time after I have a chance to catch-up in more detail...

    - - - Updated - - -


    Ok, having read through today (because I need more time to read through everything that happened after I stepped away day 1) I've got to agree with a lot of stuff Snowblaze is saying. So, to help

    Rogan - you're the next contestant on "What are you up too?"

    Because I'm not with gac3, but I'm not against him, nor am I with Book Wombat/Rogan - so I choose Rogan for 2 reason.
    1. I would have looked into him night one, but failed, so I might as well find out today.
    2. I'm definitely not with him, but I agree with Snowblaze that hidden amongst the inactives is a likely case.
    1) Broadcasting your role and N1 action publicly? That's a paddling. You're not on the chopping block, and we've already gone over how claims are dangerous for giving wolves more info than it gives town. Now you've got no bargaining chip for if you find yourself wagon'd (or you'll claim this claim was a lie, and your bargaining chip is weakened because town is less sure how trustworthy you are). It doesn't help that you're essentially claiming vanillager so you're not even claiming a thing that would really suck to lose. I have no idea why you're claiming here except to maybe get town slightly closer to solving the mech game? But the mech stuff is never gonna be anything but secondary, at least until much later.

    2) You're essentially just jumping up behind Snow and saying "yeah, what they said". That's not unhelpful, to know that somebody thinks Snow is onto something (even if I personally think Rogan leans more town than scum), but it's also not helpful either - if you were scum, this would just be a very lazy pocketing attempt.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Just agreeing with your logic (since I had note caught up with day 1 yet), not saying Rogan was an inactive. I guess I should have stated that point clearer. Still - not 100% sure on Rogan. I would love to hear more from him.

    What can I answer for you? I'm an open book.

    Day 1 - I posted early and got 2 in before I wandered off. Been called Sugapoof before, probably will be again. Also, if you're old school enough, my alter-ego is Graklok. Sorry I didn't give much more read then those 2 posts day one. Because I am old school, I was used to having more then 1 game at a time, so back in the day - I was either switching between multiple games which forced me to be here posting more often, or narrating them, or both. I am attempting to get back into checking more often as it requires more effort now then it did with multiple games. Odd, but that way worked for me. Not used to the new style - which is my fault after being gone for about a decade. Would have thought to get back into the cadence again with Afterlife, but hard to do when I got lynched day 2.

    So - on the "don't look at the 3-card monte" game Mr. Popo is playing, and after reading his dizzying/epic novel amount of posts, he is pinging as sus still on my radar. Might be trying to do sooo much song and dance that you're so busy watching the show, you aren't paying any attention to what's going on backstage. I do love the logic he puts into it, and can see some meta-reasoning in it as well. I don't trust him, but I don't distrust him yet right now either. Ponders about him and Snowblaze working together to mask each others scent. I may just point at him for forcing me to read so much.
    Maybe I'm biased cuz of the presentation of the previous suspicion on Rogan, but the suspicion on Mr Popo feels like it's coming from how gac and I don't like how Popo reacted to gac's ISO stuff, and the reasoning for that suspicion is more or less copied from blade. "Popo's really tricky" isn't wrong, and it's definitely a reason to not locktown him (he's said as much, even), but it's just another voice added to the pile of people saying the same thing. I'd like to see something from you that others haven't already said a few times over.


    Slight scum lean from Supagoof - not because anything individually done couldn't be done by a townie, but because I could easily see scum doing this, and I don't see anything that's more likely to be town than scum.

    I'm not ISOing Libro. There's nothing to go on, except for being the uncounterclaimed Countess, so he's locktown offering limited analysis.

    Spoiler: Xihirli ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    My Dearest Enemy,

    Iím a photographer now. Not so much a passion as it is an excuse. My preferred subjects are dead thingsĖghost towns, empty houses, broken buildings. There are a surprising number of them.
    Interesting, isnít it, to see something that once held so much value stripped down to its barest bones?
    Thatís why I came back home, you know. I remembered this place. I believe I was around twelve or thirteen the last time I was here. This forgotten old science station that held so many memories of my childhood, back when marine biology was still something I could stomach. Odd, exchanging my interest in marine life for an attraction to death, instead.
    I guess I ought to thank you for that.


    Alright let's kill Libro it's been ages since the last good ol' rousing round of kill libro.
    Coming from anybody else, this RP would read as wolf bragging about being wolf. But xihirli does this constantly. Scum...town...not even in a WW/Mafia game...the Chaotic Evil grind never stops.

    If you saw me say "Xihirli is Xihirli'ing" earlier and you didn't know what I was talking about, this is it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    It was in this little park that I used to categorize fossils and read the rings of slaughtered tree trunks. I wrote a research paper once that dedicated thirty pages purely to logging birds. Iíve never been happier to forget the words double-crested cormorant.
    They used to tell us when we spent our summers here that we could canoe or kayak, whatever we liked. But we couldnít swim. No, never swim. That was too dangerous, we had to be weary of the water. Even the beach had signs that read ďDANGERĒ for fear the residue from inside you still swirled into the algae-flooded waters, even after all those years. They must have been right, though. To find any signs of life we had to take the river where it met the ocean. There, the muck thinned into salted clouds of green that you still couldnít quite see through, but somehow seemed more inviting.
    We were children, though. And all the precautions made us restless.


    So it's now occurred to me that I was really into the idea of a love letter themed game not knowing that love letter is like... a show name or something. I just thought it was letters and I think I'm in a different setting than everyone else.

    Eh, in for a penny.

    Weighing in on the "reveal town roles" plan: This will always just feel unsporting to me. It's such an obvious move that a lot of games inspired by preexisting stories just don't have a mechanical way to prevent. Heck, I left Seto Kaiba out of Yu-Gi-Oh! purely to subvert the idea "she'd never leave THIS character out"
    Spoiler
    Show
    also the section of the story I was adapting had nothing to do with that windbag
    but a lot of games like this just can't have that option built in. This just feels like a move we should ladies' agreement out of.
    It doesn't help that mass-claiming in this particular game doesn't force wolves to fakeclaim - all roles except princess and countess could be on either team. Still, it's also generally a little unsporting, yeah. I should probably not push for doing stuff like that as often. >.>

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    My friends and I, long gone now, we used to go exploring after curfew. Weíd sneak out of the cabins and try to find the activity that would get us into the most trouble. We ended up finding this watchtower and adoring it, so far above everything, surrounded by cypress trees that cloaked us. We could exist in our own bubble. We felt invincible.
    We had a perfect view of you from up here. Itís where we would tell our stories of your monsters. We would stare over the water and talk about what would happen if we decided to take one of the kayaks out to you. Maybe one night we wouldĖjust to see. By then, the bridge had been down for a few years. Who would catch us?
    What an idea that had been.
    Now here I am, twenty years later, still watching you. The divorced feeling has not gone away, but with no one left to share it with, itís more like isolation than invincibility. Lucky for me, Iím quite used to that by now.
    Is this what itís like for you?




    mwahahaahaha

    More seriously, the Princess/Countess claim plan was what I was responding to. Mass claiming hadn't been brought up, so I guess I didn't feel the need to specify.
    I keep tricking myself into reading the RP like it's gonna have some hidden commentary buried in the metaphor. Anyway, this post is just clarifying what the previous one was replying to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    This entire place is quite the photo opportunity: The empty labs, the weather-worn boats covered in sea slime, the sun-bleached life jackets resting on rotted decks. The old nuclear plant across the water. Rylanís body at the bottom of the lake. How could I pass that up?

    It turns out your light wasnít a fluke, but Iím afraid I still havenít quite figured out what to make of it after yesterday. Are you mocking me? Beckoning me? Obviously expecting a letter back would be silly, seeing asÖwell. But what is it youíre trying to communicate? I will continue to watch.
    5:51pm. See you soon.

    Cordially,
    Your Enemy


    Cao, can you define "Shakespearian?" There's a lot of variance there.
    Request for fluff clarification. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    My Dearest Enemy,

    I have tried to have my fair share of fun since I was last here. To forget.
    I spent a good portion of my early twenties trying to decide what was worth my time. Not much was, but certainly not the law. Clearly, Iíve never been one for rules. One of my first jobs was as a clerk in the old courthouse here at homeĖI only got it because my aunt was a bailiff at the time. Something tells me, though, that they ended up wishing theyíd at least interviewed me first.


    You're all princesses!

    Yes, we're all princesses!

    I'm not.

    Shh.
    Joke post. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    I wasnít exactly keen on clerical work, so my co-workers and I would opt to sneak upstairs and watch the courtroom drama. Sometimes, if it was a boring case, as they often were, we would sneak up to the bell tower and get high or drunk insteadĖcome to think of it, I donít remember ever doing much paperwork.




    As much as I want to split Libro's head upon the rocks, the counterclaimer is usually right so let's kill Mr Popo... if such a feat can even be done.
    Votes the first claimant, which is the standard practice. I recalled Xihirli as contributing more to these discussions, though...

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    On one of these days, we snuck up there and passed a few cans of beer around, still warm from being hidden outside. I had scanned a bag of pot into evidence earlier that week and suggested we use it. Perhaps if weíd been a little more sober, we might have realized it wasnít a very bright idea, but we werenít, and we didnít. It wasnít difficult to get, either. It was stupidly easy to walk into evidence, stuff it into my trousers, and walk out. Mixed with the thrill of theft, it was the best high I ever had. We sat around the bell, rusted so bad it had turned Liberty green.
    I wonder what it looks like now. Maybe I ought to take photos of that, too.



    Okay, went to work and then sleep. Catching up, Popo became the lead lynch for a second then chimed in with a post essentially saying "I meant to fake-claim and get caught. It was all a clever ploy, you see."

    And that's fair enough I suppose. It did strike me as... a risk a wolf wouldn't need to take at this point. Now that's no guarantee, but ultimately I have decided to cross out my vote. If Popo sparks discussion and activity like this every day then every day we keep him alive is a good thing at least in that end.

    That said, I've not been pulled over to the JeenLeen wagon. Popo's got a lot of information going toward JeenLeen, excepting one crucial thing, and that is experience playing with Jeen. Now I've run a game that Jeen was playing in and I've been in games with them for... what, the last year? It's been a fair few. And I will take a second to say that Jeen always acts like this. Now, in Jeen's defense, or rather, not at all, he is also usually Neutral, so my town-read on him may be off, but looking at his behavior D1 in my Yu-Gi-Oh! game, it was full of statements like "I'll be up-front that I'm aware this totally can look like a wolf defending himself, but..." and "I don't want to answer this too fully -- I wrote up a lot of IF-THEN scenarios then deleted them..." ALMOST saying a lot of things. He also sort of bumbled around with the rules (misidentifying the Baner role, asking over the phase mechanics), and I say that as a proud bumbler around with the rules. Jeen learns by doing and doesn't usually hit his stride day one. His behavior today has been consistent with his town behavior.

    So I'm looking for alternate wagons.
    Ah, there we go.

    This is a pretty good reaction to the Popo drama - being convinced away from Popo, but still not convinced to kill JeenLeen. Something to be said for not following the crowd, especially given how we ended up being wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    Sure, Iíll go for one. When in doubt, butcher the silent, right?

    EmmyNecromancer

    On mobile, else I would have included a letter fragment.
    ...voting Emmy D1? When a bunch of people have spoken up about how inactives are bad targets in general? And even me saying that inactives are a kill that waits until they're about to autolynch? That's a bit sus, ngl.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    This town never would let me forget. The newspapers, the interviews, the questions, the prying eyes. They all wanted to know. They talked about how tragic it was, how sad. It was infuriating.
    Once, though, one of the journalists looked me in the eyes and asked ďso, why did you do it?Ē
    My mother had to pry me off of her.



    Alright, well either Jeen is the princess and this is some 500 IQ trick, or he'll be dying in a second. My "kill the quiet"
    counterwagon didn't catch on much, maybe gac3 for reasons thrown around by Snow, Popo and AV?
    This was an attempt to see if the counterwagon would catch on? But we saw JeenLeen hang and flip town, so this couldn't be scum!Xihirli protecting scum!JeenLeen.

    Given what all occurred, current theory: if Xihirli were to flip scum, D1 is scum!Xihirli joining the wagon of the counterclaimed person (Popo), which is what you're supposed to do. Then trying to start up a new counterwagon on Emmy, then trying to start up another counterwagon on gac when Emmy wasn't catching on. It looks like she's trying to minimize the chance of Popo dying. That could be scum!Xihirli trying to protect a scumbuddy, or it could be scum!Xihirli trying to make us think she's protecting a scumbuddy so that we'll consider lynching Popo afterwards.

    I'm not sure which way to read that, especially given that I haven't really seen much AI stuff from Xihirli so far, but the possibility of a Xi/Popo scum/scum will go in my notes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    No, I did. Hence the ďis this a 500 IQ etcĒ
    Clarification. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    As I got older, the people remembered the story but forgot me. I got to settle back into anonymity and everyone else went back to living under your shadow as if it meant nothing.
    Until that day.




    May I just disagree vehemently here? Very easy for a wolf to be like "ooh! town cred!" when a non-wolf is headed for death. If I'm a wolf, I know Jeen isn't. The fact that I was right is almost irrelevant to the soundness of my argument here.

    Spoiler: Oh and also
    Show
    A friend actually wrote this, though I helped edit. I'll chat with them if they want me to link any of you to their linkedin after this
    Calls out gac for townreading her just because she was right about JeenLeen being town. I would expect a wolf to just let it go past unmentioned - you know, let somebody else call gac out on it. Slight townie points, but not too many, because faking that wouldn't be risking very much either.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    We had started telling stories, sharing secrets. I canít remember who started it now, it might have even been me. They were innocent enough. One girl described how she had stolen a bottle of wine out of her fatherís old cellar, hoping that out of the dozens he wouldnít notice one go missing. Regrettably, it had been some rare bottle they were saving as a twenty-year anniversary treat.
    They noticed.


    I'd be happy to join in on EmmyNecromancer since she apparently was online but isn't posting.
    Like if she's trying to fly under the radar, it's not working, but say something please.
    FWIW, while a glance at her forum activity indicates she was online the other day, she also hasn't posted to the forum since two weeks before that, and her post before that was was two weeks before that post. My general impression from Afterlife is that she was getting kinda busy with school and was more hoping she'd have time for game than expecting to. Still, of the two inactives, that's easily the more suspicious one right now.


    Slight scum lean. I recalled Xihirli as contributing a lot more to discussions, but it's the RP stuff padding out her posts that tricked me. There's not much to go on here, and what is there is never great and is occasionally concerning. I guess this is maybe closer to a null read but for the possibility of a Xi/Popo teamup, which scares me on principle.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

    Avatar by AsteriskAmp

    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
    Everyone knows Wizards only become adventurers because it's the fastest way to get more Wizard levels.

  12. - Top - End - #222
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    So. I think people are holding my play to an unrealistic standard, as both alignments.

    I couldn't fake my play this game as a wolf. And I'm not "better than this". Sure, I slacked off and procrastinated a bit, but I don't think I've played terribly this game. Also, I have precisely one town game in the last year, and the circumstances of that were pretty different to this game. (Well, day one, at least. Day two is more similar.)

    So why am I town?

    a) the Plan. I don't do that as a wolf. Explaining why exactly requires quite a lot of self-meta, so warning for that ahead.

    I don't like making risky plays as a wolf. I know Percy Jackson and all the crazy stuff that happened in that is counter-evidence, but I did all of those things because I was screwed anyway. If I hadn't changed my claim I would have been outed the moment Batcathat flipped. 99% chance of death is better than 100% chance of death.

    This game is different. If I'm a wolf, I don't make that kind of big move right at the beginning. If I'm proposing a deliberately flawed plan then there's a pretty big risk someone finds the flaws.

    If I'm proposing a plan I genuinely think is pro-town... I'm putting my team at a disadvantage for what, towncred? I'm not going to get to endgame solely on that, and I'm confident enough in my ability to not get caught day one that I donít need the towncred just for survival.

    And itís not like ďSnowblaze always proposes mechanical plans as town so she feels obliged to do it as wolfĒ because I donít. I think this is the first game Iíve ever opened with a mechanics wall.

    That not enough to clear me? b) bladescape.

    He wolfed with me in Percy Jackson, he knows how wolf!me thinks, and he hard townread me from page one to night one. Even supposing I was able to fool him, why on earth would I ever kill him night one? Especially when thereís a confirmed Countess and a Mr Popo who I would be terrified of as a wolf.

    Beyond that itís more ďaccording to my vague impression of my own meta I couldnít fake the solving Iíve been doing so farĒ which doesnít really get you anywhere.

    Anyway, Iím doing this because realising how close we are to LyLo/MyLo has made me paranoid, and being paranoid I think itís possible that wolves are setting me up for a late-game mislynch due to me not being trusted. Which means itís important that I shut down that possibility ASAP.

    Right. I am now going to ISO Rogan. If I donít have a completed Rogan ISO posted by EOD, you can ignore everything I just said and lynch me.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  13. - Top - End - #223
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    It's always dangerous to assume other people work the same as one self but at least for me, I feel like I'm more likely to go into defensive mode when I'm scum. All of that explanation despite not having a single vote against her? Hmm.

    Of course, there have been quite a few suspicions thrown at her (especially by me, it feels like) and it's certainly possible Snow's just freaking about a possible mislynch.

    Snow should probably be my next ISO. Hopefully then I can either trust her or just commit to voting her.

  14. - Top - End - #224
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Having stared at Rogan's first post for a while, I've reached a few realisations:
    a) I don't know how to read Rogan
    b) I have little to no confidence in my reads or my POE any more
    c) there's a lot of IRL stuff I should be doing which is more productive

    One thing I will say is that if Rogan is a wolf, I'm probably misclearing someone. In Craziest Idea when I called him and his teammates out early on he responded by pushing me for a "scumslip"; I don't think wolf!Rogan would come round to a townread if I have a correct POE.

    Confused, paranoid and in need of a break. Sorry for not having more confidence or solid wolfreads.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    It's always dangerous to assume other people work the same as one self but at least for me, I feel like I'm more likely to go into defensive mode when I'm scum. All of that explanation despite not having a single vote against her? Hmm.

    Of course, there have been quite a few suspicions thrown at her (especially by me, it feels like) and it's certainly possible Snow's just freaking about a possible mislynch.

    Snow should probably be my next ISO. Hopefully then I can either trust her or just commit to voting her.
    Yeah, it would be good if you could look through me. And please list your concerns so I can work through them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Rogan (2): gac3, Supagoof
    EmmyNecromancer (4): AvatarVecna, Mr Popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
    gac3 (1): Libro
    Posted but didn't vote (2): Batcathat, Rogan
    No posts today (2): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist

    - - - Updated - - -

    General question: if there's a wolf in my towncore, who is it?

    For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo.

    Going to go now. Will probably be back sometime before EOD.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  15. - Top - End - #225
    Pixie in the Playground
     
    Mr Popo's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Popo nods, seeing some people trying.

    Gac3 is a complete veto for today, from me, so if you don't want to vote divided, you have to not vote there.

    AvatarVecna is also a complete veto. You two should not vote each other ever for the remainder of play.

    If you do you will lose the game. Your vote is your own, you gotta decide whether or not you can trust my judgment over your own because neither of you have special extra information and neither of you know for sure I am town.

    Because there is cross suspicion here, I have to re-establish you both being town, so you both get there. Nothing is more important, because the town core absolutely shatters otherwise and a wrong elimination today puts us closer and closer to end game and town on town suspicion loses in endgame.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Let's start with AvatarVecna:

    I can give you a gigantic list of reasons why gac is town, which only occurred to me after day one, because basically all of them happened after day one ended. Because before that, his game wasn't very townie at all. Or, solving, or... much to look at.

    I can give you that list, and already did, and you disagreed with much of it. You do not see how I can possibly be so sure, because you don't think that gac3 was legitimately reading the game.

    You think it was information instead of analysis, you think it was mostly commentary. Which pings your suspicions.

    Where a townie gets there on zero information even with that approach, is when a townie has had exactly that type of suspicion dozens of times already and have those suspicions not turn out to be very good when the subject flips town.

    So my approach to Gac3 is yielding an immense town read because I am using multiple different methodologies and processes on him at once.

    Let's say each methodology, each solving process, as I refer to it in my guide, is like a poor man's cop check.

    Suppose you were given a busted mechanical cop check every game by the game host.

    Okay, this cop check for example, finds disloyal scumbags who vote for one townie a day, and don't discuss their partners. And it correctly reads townies who are doing that, even though that looks wolfy as hell.

    But for every other kind of wolf, your busted cop check does not function.

    Pretend you actually have this kind of cop check. Great, you can find some types of scums sometimes, when it is that kind of scumbag.

    If you have no other processes, no other kinds of busted cop checks, then you will find wolves sometimes with your busted cop check, but you will also be wrong on other types of wolves.

    But because you are right sometimes, it confirms to you that your methods are right. That's the positive reinforcement.

    The problem is, the negative reinforcement doesn't work. We remember our successes more than our failures.

    One of the biggest reasons I sucked as a townie for so long was because I was having such immense success as a townie.

    I was finding wolves every game, so I figured, my processes weren't the problem. It was everyone else who was failing ME. I could find most of the wolves, if you couldn't find the rest, that's your fault, not mine.

    Except, it assumes I can't ever actually find a way to improve the accuracy. It assumes I have no room for improvement. Bagging multiple wolves a game, you think, that's the peak. You can't get better.

    You have positively reinforced yourself into thinking your methods work.

    Problem:

    I lost every game as town for three straight years.

    While positively reinforcing myself to think this is good villaging. Because I kept finding most of the scum team.

    What I had was a collection of very pretty looking busted cop checks.

    What I did not have was enough varieties of them.

    And I would not use them all at the same time.

    Meaning, I would use one of my processes to solve the game, one of my busted cop checks, and find what I think is a wolf, and hit there. Or, I would use it to find someone town, and not hit there.

    When, instead, I should have been using literally all of my busted cop checks on every single person, every single game, and going with what the strongest and most persuasive cop checks said, and especially, if multiple different methods agreed with each other.

    If you go by looking at Gac3's catch up solving N1, this is your reactions to it:

    Most of this post? It's not analysis of the ISOs, it's summaries of the ISOs. Analysis is "here's what happened, and here's what I think about it". Most of what's happened, we don't even really get a "I'm not sure if this really says anything about the gamestate", it just gets stated and he moves on to describing the next post.
    Literally no analysis, but at least understandable since Supagoof doesn't seem to be participating.
    "The locktown role hasn't been counterclaimed, so they're probably town." Wow hot take there.
    You see here, all of this? You have an expectation, a bar, where gac3 has to hit it, for you to town read him.

    So when he keeps knocking into that same bar over and over again, you conclude, he cannot jump.

    Which is a fine conclusion in a vacuum. If that's the only method you use, sometimes, that will hit a wolf. Therefore, you don't see how I can strongly townread that, because by your sole methodology, your one busted cop check, he is a wolf.

    And I had him wolfy all day one. And now I strongly reversed, for reasons you do not buy.

    Which pings you even more. Maybe I am his buddy, maybe I distanced from him on Day One.

    Ping ping ping ping right now, all the pings are going off in your head.

    Nothing makes you stop looking for the answer like believing you already have the answer.

    Once you sincerely believe in your belief that Gac3 is suspect and should tip over, you strongly resist anything that goes the other way.

    It's literally your duty as a townie to not let wolves escape for dumb reasons.

    Okay, but this is the busted cop check I used:

    1) His day one is not a day one that really really good wolves ever do. Because it was so, so bad, that it draws a lot of suspicion, and he was like that, allllllllll daayyyyyyyy.

    2) His night one is not a night one that really really bad wolves ever do. Because it was so, so, so good. Novice wolves, struggle wolves, level 1 2 and 3 etc wolves, they do not do that.

    What that, what specifically.

    The subtle indicators, good wolves don't give off subtle towntells on purpose. They always go for showy ones. Only great wolves do. The ones that method act so, so well, that you can't catch them by most forms of town analysis.

    The mindset tells, the sense of humor tells, the self awareness digs, the lack of tension tells. The struggle to form reads when there is a genuine reason to struggle to form them from a town POV, but actual reads developing clearly and for reasons I understand, elsewhere. the specific struggles and specific examples of seeing it both ways, a common generic scum tell, are actually so specifically good, those are not scum tells in the specific example.

    Generically, taking 2 positions at the same time is wolfy, a lot. But because that's one of my busted cop checks, I have used it to nab lots of wolves.

    And also, I have used it to hit villagers, so the check is kinda busted. It's not always right, so what I did, was I kept improving the check.

    When was it wrong, why was it wrong, was it visibly wrong beforehand?

    So when I did that, I found out, townies just like me, sometimes have legitimate reasons to see an issue from both perspectives. Mainly because sometimes, someone gives off indications they are a wolf, while also giving off indications they are a villager. Or sometimes, there's a person with few posts, and their few posts are all fine and have no wolf tells in them, but it's so easy to do, that can just be a decent wolf keeping their head down.

    So, a townie is going to think two different possibilities exist on a candidate, a lot.

    It's wolfy when there's no reason to struggle, it's wolfy when they do the following:

    "Vote: JimmyJohn

    But I wonder if I shouldn't move this vote to JennyJams instead. I think that one is a wolf."

    Okay? That's an example where someone is saying one thing, and doing another. That's an example where someone is saying X is a wolf while voting for someone else without casing that someone else, and at the same time, suggesting maybe their vote isn't good.

    Whereas, a townie, thinks their vote can hit a wolf as they are voting, period.

    Maybe they're not confident, maybe they're having mixed feelings, but they are voting their current best suspect right now.

    If they vote someone while saying someone else is a better vote, in most cases, that's taking two positions and is wolfy. In very rare examples, specific examples, it is NOT, but they have to be super specific and reallly reallllly good.

    All of these are examples.

    But basically, the bottom line, is gac3 legitimately struggled to narrow down some of those positions for reasons a villager can have. It's not the wolfy take two positions.

    And, he is forming reads, but you don't like the presentation.

    It's not in multiquote wall form, it's not listing all the specific examples. It doesn't meet your standards, because it is just the conclusions after the work is done, and you'd like to see the work itself.

    Again, if gac3 were an elite tier level 5, 6, or 7 wolf, their presentation would be immaculate.

    And if they are a struggle wolf, who cannot hit level 5 tier wolfing, then their night one would not be chock full of busted cop checks from me that read strongly villager.

    They are in conflict.

    Gac3 is not a bad wolf. Not this game. Gac3 is not a good wolf. Not this game.

    If Gac is not a bad or a good wolf, he can only be a townie.

    This is a townie struggling day one because he's got no information yet.

    He finally gets a single flip, is widely scum read.

    Immediately begins mega solving to HIS best effort. He gives off myriad busted cop checks that read town to me.

    Your busted cop check reads wolfy to suspicious. You don't see all my cop checks that say townie.

    You don't know how I got there, you're sure he is a wolf.

    Yep. I get it.

    I understand your perspective.

    I know you believe in your methodology. I know you're a town at this point, for all levels of "know" that a villager can have without real confirmation.

    I also know gac3 is town at this point, for all levels of "know" that a villager can have without confirmation.

    That's what i know, based on my experiences, based on my years of fine tuning and improving my busted cop checks and learning to use all of them and listen to all of them and not tunnel one belief system.

    If I only tunneled one belief system I never reverse on you or Jeen day one.

    The reason why i strongly reverse, is because I have seen countless hundreds of townies die because they look exactly like a wolf to some townie, somewhere, for legitimate reasons.

    And all the reasons why they could have been read townie were never found, until it was too late.

    And all I do with my life between games is re-read all my mistakes.

    All my mistakes, and all everyone else's mistakes.

    I know when a mistake is in progress now.

    I know it so well, I have counterclaimed cops correctly.

    As in literally, a town cop is playing fancy, and claimed a guilty check on another townie, as a bluff.

    And my methods are so strong, I have countered that claim and said it was wrong because visible reasons I can tell you.

    Example: usually, the target counterclaims cop and gives peeks. Or shuts down. They don't usually laugh it off, and continue solving the entire game, only having more and more and more WIM.

    If a cop is going to fake claim guilty results while being the real cop, they usually believe X is so guilty they are likely hitting a wolf.

    Often times THEY can't see their gambit is about to flip a townie.

    I have to help them because they are so tunneled. They forgot to look for signs their big bad suspect is actually town.

    They don't use multiple overlapping processes. They don't check for mistakes.

    They plow straight ahead, believing in their beliefs that have found wolves in the past.

    They aren't being careful with who they stab, because their sword is covered in wolfy blood.

    And that's why they stab villagers.

    Don't stab Gac3, he is a villager.

  16. - Top - End - #226
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    Spoiler: Book Wombat ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    The die favours Rogan not.
    Randvote. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I have a thought, what if the Princess or Countess role is currently not in use? The role descriptions do not appear to say if they will always be in use at the very beginning, only that if someone gains the role they will not be able to change it.
    If the Queen's Servants know that one or both roles are missing they could easily fake-claim. Just speculation but who knows?
    I initially thought this wasn't a good point against the plan because Princess/Countess aren't guaranteed to be assigned, but apparently that's not the case? In which case, this is a slight point in BW's favor.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Another thought, the Countess' role seems to like it's her purpose to sacrifice herself for the Princess after the reveal.
    Also a flaw in the stated plan, but one anybody could be aware of and point out.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Somehow Mr. Popo feels off to me, might be all the layers. Dunno.
    This is really vague, and it doesn't help that this is the first post in forever...and immediately after getting called out. The next few posts through that exact discussion with a "lol cant do anything about when I see the thread", more or less. Still NAGL tho.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Uh, yeah. I only reloaded the page at around 11 o'clock and posted half an hour later so I missed the part where Mr. Popo called me out.
    Probably sounds a bit suspicious, oh well.
    Not fond of TWTBW in general.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Sugapoof? Sugar puffs? Sounds sweet.
    NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I honestly didn't see your post calling me out before posting. Probably wouldn't voted if I had seen it.
    This seems more concerned with how their activity would look wolfy than they are with catching wolves. This is a thing people just tend to do, sure, but I think it's a bit more common for wolves to worry about looking like wolves than townies worry about it. Just a tad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    This could of course be a lie to make me look more Town, up to you what to think.

    EDIT: Addition to my previous post.


    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    What can I say, it comes naturally Į\_(ツ)_/Į.


    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    In at least the past ten games my first vote was random. In this game it was no different. Most other players should know about this.
    EDIT: Oh, whoops. Past nine games.

    Don't have much to say about the other things.
    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Vote Count:
    Batcathat (1): Supagoof
    Supagoof (1): gac3
    Mr Popo (3): Libro, JeenLeen, Book Wombat
    JeenLeen (5): Batcathat, Snowblaze, bladescape, Mr Popo, AvatarVecna
    EmmyNecromancer (1): Xihirli

    Not voting (3): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist, Rogan

    Hopefully nothing wrong.
    IIOA. I know we've gotten inured to this particular version because Cao practically signs every post with a vote count instead of a signature when he's playing, but that doesn't change that this is more "looks helpful" than "actually furthering discussion". And cao usually includes some thoughts alongside the votecount.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I didn't really suggest the Countess should sacrifice herself for the Princess after the reveal, I was remarking that the only thing a Countess can do after the Princess' reveal is either sacrifice herself or not as all other actions are blocked.
    NAI. It's a good defense, but one town or scum could make just as easily as the other.

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    I kinda like the fact that I usually seem a bit suspicious but not enough to warrant a lynch.
    Voting for EmmyNecromancer too I guess?

    Vote Count:
    Rogan (2): gac3, Supagoof
    EmmyNecromancer (4): AvatarVecna, Mr Popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze

    Posted but didn't vote (2): Batcathat, Rogan
    No posts today (3): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist, Libro
    Out (2): JeenLeen, bladescape
    If I were going to point to a single post this game that looks like the player is trying to fly under the radar, this is it. Joining the wagon just because it's the wagon, while commenting on their own status among the suspected.


    Slight scum lean. There's a few bad things here, but most players would be balancing that out with a few good things too, and instead there's basically nothing good in this ISO. One good point at the start and then it goes downhill straight into Coasting Town.

    Spoiler: gac3 ISO
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    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Sugapoof because i was going to vote BCH and you beat me too it.
    Randvote. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    How I feel every game. I see the recruitment and am like "welp, I'm playing." Then the game roles around and I'm like... "Do I even know how to play this version?"
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Oh man. I forgot this game started. I need to catch up.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay... So Mr. Popo claimed? But then said "don't give hints as to who the princess is not... I might be the princess. Does that mean they didn't claim?

    This is not a "this seems Wolfy" post as much as "is this what happened" post.
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Because I am not in other games right now and have school and overtime and got into the habit of only checking like every other day and after posting the first time I got busy. I honestly even now don't remember if this started yesterday or two days ago. (I plan to check after this reply.)

    Then someone said this makes me look vote worthy. I didn't spot anyone accusing me of being inactive or not talking, so what is the point of anyone, wolf or town, being all "I forgot the game was happening, if they aren't either telling the truth or defending against inactive targetting.
    Feels more believable that the game was forgotten, at this point. I'm willing to call this NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Has Mr. Popo played before at a point I haven't? Because right now I'm wondering why they are staying so many people with such confidence are town. To the point that they claim their three wolf suspects are either it or wolves are inactive.

    That said I haven't read all of the posts. I have skimmed some of the bigger ones as I have just gotten off of work. Seems like Mr. Popo is a big suspect base on the number of times I saw him named in red. Is it just because of all this weird countess claim stuff?
    I don't buy this. The "i just returned to thread and dont understand what's going on" thing doesn't work too many times in the same game, and this?

    Popo: "I claim male version of Countess!"

    Libro: "I counterclaim Countess!"

    This is not the kind of thing you just...misunderstand, even in a glance over. Either you see Libro explicitly counterclaiming somebody, and you vote the person counterclaimed, or you look deeper into things and think maybe Popo wasn't actually claiming. But...not being sure why Popo is being voted? This is either some serious coasting or pretending to coast, for some reason? And it so happens that it coincides with returning just after getting called out. I know Popo has backed off gac for gac joking around and participating, but this would still look pretty dang bad even if I wanted to think gac was innocent.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    So I was going to call out Book Wombat for having their second post being to vote for the person who just called them out and that still feels off. But they have posted four times.

    What I did notice while looking at the stats though is that Supagoof has actually only posted twice.





    Yet is on Mr. Popos list of town. He did express hesitance but... This should be a null read based on the fact there's nothing there right? Am I missing something? It's one thing if it was "these three look Wolfy so Supagoof is probably town" but it wasn't. It seems off to me.

    Edit: having actually read more of the post, by Mr. Popos own wolf hunting logic that they shared... Supagoof should be on the list of wolf subjects for having voted for one of their town picks.
    I like this callout even more than I did at the time. Townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Ii haven't voted you? I'm not even trying to say you are suspicious for the things I pointed out. I'm trying to say I'm confused. Just woke up and still catching up so hopefully will have more to add.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Wait... Hard claim like narrator reveal? Did I miss that?

    - - - Updated - - -



    I'm not saying context doesn't matter! I'm saying that you said the issue is that I gave no reason and voted "town" and then have contributed next to nothing (which is correct) but my point was that the person I vote literally fits that same description. They voted one of your top townies with no context and literally has done nothing else.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Emmy because I'm still not caught up enough to have a bigger wolf dar than "vote inactive"
    ...I'm going to go with slight scumlean on this post, because of the last bit. gac3 seems more concerned with replying to people accusing him than getting his bearings on the thread at large. It doesn't help that Emmy was a bad D1 vote regardless. Could be part of the aforementioned issue with getting enough time to actually deal with the game, but it still rubs me the wrong way.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Okay cool. I've only really noticed it as I moved through with snowblaze so I thought it was more person specific
    Basic reply, and context doesn't make it look better or worse. NAI>

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It depends. I'll have my first real chunk of time to look through things here in a couple hours and can probably get some reads then. So if day doesn't end before then then yes. (Idk when day ends)

    The confusion is mainly on Mr. Popo. It's just so bizarre to just blanket say someone is lock town without a single flip. Like having leans is good. But to act as though it's the gospel truth and then frame your wolf suspicions around those town reads. Like i get that I look Wolfy and that's fair. But I am not struggling the logic which was used..
    The frustration here with Mr Popo's actions feel genuine. It comes across like gac is a townie trying his best to get caught up despite the thread having turned into a one-man circus. I could see a wolf getting upset about this as well, but I feel they'd be less likely to publicly speak up about it - getting irate for somebody working hard to solve the game is a bad look, bad enough that wolves tend to avoid that kinda passive-aggressive callout. Slight townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    It's also worth mentioning that with how the votes are now, unless I find a really convincing argument or there is some major CFD going on, my vote is pretty inconsequential right now.

    Edit: my point being that while reads will be incoming, moving my vote is kind of meh at this moment.
    ...I suppose I can respect leaving the vote where it is while he gets his bearings, since there isn't enough time to change the outcome. I'd prefer him to use his vote to emphasize who he truly suspects even if it doesn't accomplish any change in deaths, but that's a playstyle difference.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I never claimed to have forgotten I posted. I claimed to have forgotten the game started. I knew I posted once I remembered it was a thing. I just had forgotten completely that the game had started and didn't even bother to check and see if anything had happened. I was absent for only a day apparently but on the moment I thought it had been more than that.



    Welp. I did not make it.




    Did you even read anything there other than "Claim princess"



    It was not a token vote or an attempt to look townie. Also your whole "sorry Jeen, play the game next time" post came across rather rude to me. Not Wolfy. Just rude. People have different strategies than you and day one when there have been no flips, talking mechanics and people's claims might not be the "optimal strategy" but it's a valid one and it's one Jeen uses often.
    I like the Xihirli callout here. I feel that exasperation. Slight townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    My thoughts so far starting with those with the fewest posts.

    Supagoof: 2 posts... One which boils down to "I vote BCH" and one pointing out my tendency to refer to them as sugapoof. Literally nothing to go on. So inactive.

    Libro: 4 posts. Counterclaimed Mr. Popo's. Vote Mr. Popo. Said they wouldn't get anywhere with their analysis without information. Given the fact that the countess is a confirmed town role and they have not been counterclaimed, seems they are likely telling the truth.

    Xi: 9 posts. Votes Libro because its fun to kill libro. Weighed in against the role reveal plan. Some fluff posts. Voting Mr. Popo because of the counter claim. Stated that they see Mr. Popo's plan, removed vote, defended Jeen (in a way that makes sense and I agree with), and expressed a desire to find a new wagon. Voted an inactive. Then didn't catch Jeen actively stating their princess claim was fake and switched a vote to me. So all in all, town lean? Voting me makes sense though a wolf could easily do that too. The defense of Jeen was fair and looks even better after the flip. Supports pushing more discussion. Overall I got town read here.

    Bladescape: 10 posts. Voted Mr. Popo for opening post. Two posts which contributed nothing. Questioned why AV was suspicious and promised more thoughts to come. Voted Jeen, did not include reasons. Non contribution post mainly focused on saying "Mr. Popo is a good player but plays hard." Finally got some fluff filled reads. Note to self: Finish reading the long Bladescape fluff post filled with their reads. They also stated that its not normally open/close and then stated that I am either red or Jeen is. Not sure what makes them confident that that is the case. Defending Popo's style. Then two posts stating we should look at Rogan if Jeen flips green... Well Jeen flipped blue so, I assume that still applies. Will come back to Blade. Need to read the long fluff post before I give a verdict on if I think they are town or wolf or what. Overall, their other posts are not overly helpful for analysis.

    JeenLeen: 11 posts. Lock town.

    Book Wombat: 11 posts. RNG Rogan vote. Presented the possibility that the Princess or Countess is not in use. Pretty sure this is narrator confirmed to not be the case? Suggests the countess should sacrifice their self for the princess after the reveal. Agreed but also, the reveal isn't necessary for that. OMGUS on Mr. Popo. Stated their vote was not actually OMGUS. Noncontributing post. "I didn't know Mr. Popo called me out. I wouldn't have voted them had I known." "I might be lying to appear town." Weighed in about their random vote. Vote count list. Overall has contributed nothing yet has posted a good bit. This would be more suspicious but... this is pretty much bar for the course for Book. However they seem very nonchalant about their "hey, maybe I am a wolf" which does stand out as something I don't remember them doing before. So maybe a wolf who is trying a balls out "hey guys, I'm wolfy" strategy or just Book not caring how their posts look. I respect either but am unsure which it is.

    Gac3: 11 posts. Voted Sugapoof for a dumb reason. A noncontributing post. Posted that they "forgot the game had started" despite having posted twice. Defensive post about their forgetting, pulling the classic "if I was a wolf, why would I lie about this." Called out Mr. Popo who had called them out. Continued harassing Mr. Popo. Continued to contribute nothing except arguing with Mr. Popo about their claims. Voted an inactive. Three noncontributing posts making excuses and promising future posts that would contribute. Another post focused on Mr. Popo and next to nothing else. So far has not contributed anything useful and only seems to be concerned with defending themselves, not helping town. Not a good look and not quite their normal style. Definitely suspicious. But also they have claimed privately so that's a point in their favor, assuming I can believe them.



    I still have AV, Snow, BCH, Rogan, and Mr. Popo left to do but I'm going to do some chores and school work so I'll come back to those either in a few hours or after I sleep, depending on how long said chores/homework take.

    Also side note: This was an interesting way too follow the posts. Since I am pretty much reading most of this for the first time, I literally only read the posts of the person I was examining. Meaning I was fairly able to isolate their actual contributions and stuff. It might be more effective (for me at least) to just continue bringing people up individually and reading all of their posts out of context when I do big analysis.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I tried to use different shades to show my level of town read. I'm not sure it was clear so so far I have:

    Jeen
    Libro
    Xi
    I have commented on most of this post already, so I'll just address the townreads at the end: gac3's townreads are "dead guy", "uncounterclaimed locktown", and "Xihirli", in that order of towniness. Well...I guess that's the right order, but that's a lot like the rest of the post - not even really saying much of anything.

    Additionally, I'm not saying this post is proof of any such thing, but I recall a Rule Of Three I set up for myself awhile back: when scum makes a list of three names like this, they almost pathologically have one of the names be a scumbuddy. If we test gac and he flips scum, that's a big tick against Xihirli in my mind. It doesn't work the other way around tho - if we test Xihirli and she flips scum, that doesn't necessarily mean gac looks worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Fair. I can hold off on the rest until day. I don't see myself being a likely night kill given the likelihood I will get lynched.
    NAI. Scum wouldn't want to push after getting called out on night-talk, and town would realize they were doing a thing that maybe helps scum and back off.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan to start because Blade said we should look into Rogan and then Blade died. The rest of my review of day one to come.
    I like this more than I used to, but still don't really like it. Doesn't feel like it matches up with gac's thoughts in the thread up to this point on Rogan and Blade.

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Avatar Vecna: 13 posts. Throwaway vote. Addresses weirdness people said, focuses a lot on inactives. Responded to my "I forgot the game" and focused on the game related part to put suspicion on me instead of the utterly unrelated forgetting. Still suspected me but for better reasons than that I had already posted. Gave reasonable reads. Really lots of pointing out peoples mistakes and weirdness and generally contributing. I'm not going to finish going point by point. They are fairly town seeming. The one exception is that I cannot remember Wolf AV acting much differently. So blue but not as deep as others. Even since I started this did a better job analyzing my post than Mr. Popo did. So more points in their favor.

    Snowblaze
    :(Using orange to distinguish from vote) 14 posts. Snow starts with a big swing, asking the only two definitely town roles to claim. They are not the only ones to mention "what if the roles aren't in the game" but didn't Cape specify exactly what roles were and weren't going to be left off? Am I imagining this. This "claim" plan is the type of thing that usually is perceived as not looking good on town but its usually more "bad town move" than "wolf move". Though they do actually spend their first several posts going "mechanics mechanics mechanics", "oh yeah. I can get behind not talking about mechanics." "mechanics mechanics mechanics". "Rogan's treatment of me is wolfy... Mechanics mechanics..." Honestly, I know it's day one, but Snow normally seems... better than this? Don't they normally push people for reads? Give detailed reasons for their own? They aren't. They are all not talking about other people or getting defensive or giving a single sentence that amounts to "I townread Popo." It feels very not snowblaze.

    Batcathat 16 posts. Took a few posts but then they offered some real insight into Xi. Then some noncommittal paranoia about Snow. Some mechanics questions/comments. Called out Jeen for some questionable logic centered around "lynch them to see if their plan is a wolf ploy". Gave a read list. Really started picking up on weighing in there at the end. Overall nothing that reads too wolfy and plenty of reasons to suspect townieness but their contribution/post ratio is a bit lower than I expected. Not my top town read but I feel okay about them.

    Rogan: 28 posts:..... I still need to do but am getting too tired. Will do tomorrow.

    Mr. Popo: 33 posts when I started this. Let's get this straight, I'm not going to go post by post and say what they have done. They have started conversation and pushed us. While it might take some getting used to for me to adapt to their style, it is so refreshing and gets conversation going. I've not seen them as wolf but without a good reason to lynch they should be kept around for a little whether town or wolf. Just don't take anything they say as gospel truth or anything.. Though I think they gave me far too much credit for my first batch of posts. I'm not all that good at the analysis.

    These got longer so i decided to skip the full summary plan I used with the light posters.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oddly enough I like AC's reaction to my reads or whatever better than Popos
    ...could be a weak pocket attempt on me, but I doubt it. I don't like that the one skipped ISO is the person gac is voting, and they're not even the biggest ISO so it's not a question of the level of effort. I mean, I guess I can kinda understand a desire to ISO Mr Popo above basically anybody else, but still it doesn't look good to have skipped ISOing the guy he's voting.


    I can't in good conscience call gac3 anything other than a Medium Scum Lean. There's some good stuff here, and I appreciate the effort going into reads and analysis, but there's a lot less here to dig into than the wordcount would suggest, and there's a few points of serious concern. If Xihirli is a light for the one "xihirli/popo w/w?" thing, then gac is definitely a Medium.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Libro View Post
    gac3 feels off, enough to warrant my vote over the inactives.

    No other wolf-y reads atm.
    Libro is off in lazy la-la land, and is being absolutely murderous with his blade, which he is swinging around blindly and is going to get all of us killed one by one.

    Libro will be difficult to talk out of this.

    If I were to guess, it will take me being dead and town and gac being dead and town, and even then, Libro's next vote will contain very little reasoning, and this will continue until the folks that the wolves have to kill off other than him are dead, and then he dies.

    Or, he continues hitting townies and they just hit outside of his body and they still win the game because he is giving them an extra vote power.

    In other words, Libro may be a great villager in other games, but has elected to stab whoever he pleases with minimal forethought, and that will cost us this game. And because he is lock clear, there's nothing we can or should do about it except tell him that's what he's doing.

    Thank you for your attention. Sorry, I know this isn't like, happy news.

    I'd love to find reasons to give you compliments. I'm not a bad guy at heart. I am just being ultra honest right now because it's necessary.

  18. - Top - End - #228
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    1) His day one is not a day one that really really good wolves ever do. Because it was so, so bad, that it draws a lot of suspicion, and he was like that, allllllllll daayyyyyyyy.

    2) His night one is not a night one that really really bad wolves ever do. Because it was so, so, so good. Novice wolves, struggle wolves, level 1 2 and 3 etc wolves, they do not do that.
    A few games back, a veteran player did a randvote post as their first post of the game, except it came across very very weird. After that, their gameplay cleared up and they were the model villager. I had a bad gut feeling about them because of that first post, even though the rest of the ISO looked perfectly fine. They were scum, it was just a matter of when they were able to start really focusing on the game. In that thread, it was on the first page. In this one, for gac, gac pretty explicitly didn't really have time to focus on the game until N1 started, more or less. And suddenly his play phenomenally improved. I know you're looking at this as the above: "good wolves wouldn't have played that bad, and bad wolves wouldn't have played that good", but doing good wolf work takes a lot of mental energy.

    I'm not saying gac is definitely a wolf, but I can't for the life of me understand how you're clearing him based on "his gameplay was like a bad wolf when he was too busy to play right, and his gameplay was like a good wolf when he finally had time to focus".

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Libro is off in lazy la-la land, and is being absolutely murderous with his blade, which he is swinging around blindly and is going to get all of us killed one by one.

    Libro will be difficult to talk out of this.

    If I were to guess, it will take me being dead and town and gac being dead and town, and even then, Libro's next vote will contain very little reasoning, and this will continue until the folks that the wolves have to kill off other than him are dead, and then he dies.

    Or, he continues hitting townies and they just hit outside of his body and they still win the game because he is giving them an extra vote power.

    In other words, Libro may be a great villager in other games, but has elected to stab whoever he pleases with minimal forethought, and that will cost us this game. And because he is lock clear, there's nothing we can or should do about it except tell him that's what he's doing.

    Thank you for your attention. Sorry, I know this isn't like, happy news.

    I'd love to find reasons to give you compliments. I'm not a bad guy at heart. I am just being ultra honest right now because it's necessary.
    This is kinda how Libro plays. He's got a good head on his shoulders, but he's generally detached enough from what's going on in-game that getting anything more than a single vote out of him per in-game day is like pulling teeth. The only times I see him really get "active" is when his role gets fakeclaimed - that's happened twice that i've seen in recent memory (including this game), and both times his activity skyrocketed because of that. It's a playstyle difference, and while it's one I'm particularly unfond of, it's not really something that's going to change. The game is stuck with Libro for awhile and we're going to have to figure out wagons without him. We can at least rest assured that he's not a cop shooting the wrong people each night, or secretly scum. Libro is locktown, just one I'm not happy with.


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    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Sugapoof because i was going to vote BCH and you beat me too it.
    These two are unaligned, as in, not wolf wolf aligned.

    Given my massive towncore, I am not inclined to hit within an at best 50/50 when the rest of my suspects pile is greater than 50/50 to hit a wolf, especially when I strongly town read one side of that 50/50, and that's the side that flips first.

    No, no, no. That's a veto.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I'm not saying gac is definitely a wolf, but I can't for the life of me understand how you're clearing him based on "his gameplay was like a bad wolf when he was too busy to play right, and his gameplay was like a good wolf when he finally had time to focus".
    Nobody understands Popo.

    Spoiler
    Show
    You can't model my thought process in your head because you do not have THIS process:

    Until you are using dozens of different solving processes at once, you won't understand why I suddenly reverse and get super duper confident someone is town.

    You won't understand where my town cores come from, you won't understand where my wolf reads come from.

    I can explain them all day, but because I'm running like 17 different simultaneous chess engines, some that work better than others, and some which give different answers, you CAN'T model my brain activity in your head.

    You can't, I am an utterly unique player.

    I have shown my methods to others, they've been able to replicate some of it.


    For now, take my word for it, because we can't afford to be down 3 townies plus 1 inactive townie.

    Plus outed Countess, plus me being wrong once.

    Once it happens twice town loses a lot.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Gac3 is also probably unaligned with Book Wombat, and probably unaligned with Emmy Necromancer.

    He's running out of wolf teammates he can even ever have. His wolf mates have to be my townies at this point.

    Nuts to that, he's never going over anytime soon. Period.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Now, all that being said

    @Gac3: You already have Vecna as a town read.

    Lock it in, and focus elsewhere as well. Do not get drawn into a slap fight.

    You're masons, you may not like it, hash tag deal with it. You're also stuck with Popo.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-14 at 04:09 AM.

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    You can't model my thought process in your head because you do not have THIS process:
    Ooh, that's a neat list. Will read all of it when I have the chance.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    You can't, I am an utterly unique player.

    I have shown my methods to others, they've been able to replicate some of it.
    It will be interesting to see if you're as good as you think you are. I don't mind arrogance when it's earned, humility is for people who don't have enough to brag about.

  21. - Top - End - #231
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    This would be correct, as I don't check my PC very often on the weekends. Need to get back into the habit of checking the site from my phone.

    Worse though is I did not get a night action in. So I'm sitting here guessing based only on the townreads. I likely would have targeted Rogan because other people I would have targeted (who are Snow - because she is very good on both sides of the coin in these games, BCH - because he has peeked my interest as being very good in these games, or Mr. Popo - let's see what the new guy is doing) I would choose not to target right away since being second to lowest on action resolution would likely have resulted in no result - given the interference and such.

    I will happily thrown myself on the sword for such a misstep, as that does move forward with what my role is - guarding the princess. But since I can do more good alive then dead, let's see who is pinging as suspect this time after I have a chance to catch-up in more detail...

    - - - Updated - - -


    Ok, having read through today (because I need more time to read through everything that happened after I stepped away day 1) I've got to agree with a lot of stuff Snowblaze is saying. So, to help

    Rogan - you're the next contestant on "What are you up too?"

    Because I'm not with gac3, but I'm not against him, nor am I with Book Wombat/Rogan - so I choose Rogan for 2 reason.
    1. I would have looked into him night one, but failed, so I might as well find out today.
    2. I'm definitely not with him, but I agree with Snowblaze that hidden amongst the inactives is a likely case.
    Regardless of rogan's actual alignment, Sugapoof has made a very unvillagery slip in this post and is my "counterwagon to Emmy Necromancer" recommendation.

    25 Popo funbucks if you can spot it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    It will be interesting to see if you're as good as you think you are. I don't mind arrogance when it's earned, humility is for people who don't have enough to brag about.
    My previous most recent town games are in the archive on the first page of that thread.

    It's a slaughter of wolves every game.

    I have something I can teach people, I know it comes off as aggressive and pig headed.

    I am a super shy, introvert in real life. Literally only in mafia games do I even have any confidence, and it's because I put so many thousands of hours into reading mistake, mistake, mistake, terrible game of mine, lousy case work of mine, diving old games and seeing how trash I used to be, and sucking it up, and deciding to do something about it next time.

    The greatest teacher is failure, and let me tell you something, I have a town win rate that is significantly underwater.

    Until about 2 years ago. Ever since then, I've unlocked the secret to not sucking.

    I had it nearly there for a long time, but if you hit 3 wolves and number 4 escapes, you sucked as badly as hitting zero wolves.

    A loss is a loss is a loss.

  22. - Top - End - #232
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    You can't model my thought process in your head because you do not have THIS process:
    I've done pairing and unpairing in this very game already. I've literally got a spreadsheet about this game open right now while I'm doing ISOs. I know most of the player base well enough to do meta, and genuineness (in frustration, in reads, in processes) is already getting townie points from me in my ISOs. I'm following about half of The Process and I've never even seen it before.

    - - - Updated - - -

    You're so confident in your own process that me arriving at a different conclusion is proof to your mind that I'm not following. Belief in your own process is, ironically, a townie sign mentioned in your process. All hail the orthodoxy.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I can at least admit that I'm nowhere near as far along in my Mafia career as you are - I'm following The Process, but it's more or less self-taught at this point, and while I've got "scum tells", they're not gained via research as much as by memory, which is a good suggestion I'll probably need to put some time into when I have some again. Doesn't mean my conclusions are wrong, though.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
    Everyone knows Wizards only become adventurers because it's the fastest way to get more Wizard levels.

  23. - Top - End - #233
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    @Gac3: You already have Vecna as a town read.

    Lock it in, and focus elsewhere as well. Do not get drawn into a slap fight.
    I have no intentions of doing that. One because I usually can't fault AV's logic. If I can, they are probably a wolf. And two because I more agree with their assessment of my participation than Mr. Popos.

    I will admit I got a little caught up on defending against Mr.
    Popo at first but since then I remembered something important... My surviving matters not at all. In fact I can't remember the last time I was lynched. I get night killed all the time and have several times made it to the end of the game but a straight up lynch? Might even be a bit refreshing. I also would rather mislynch someone like myself in a way that sparks conversation more than I'd like to quietly have town lynch and inactive to avoid auto lynching.

    That said, I have just gotten off work and my thing for Rogan and my math on mislynch over inactive lynch will be forth coming when I get home.

  24. - Top - End - #234
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Short post to check in again and let you know a thing or two I realized after getting a good nights sleep.

    • I think this community is much more easy going than Mr Popo. Most of the players are not going to put that much work and enery into the game, they wan't entertainment more than victory. (If you want to correct me here, feel free. I am not participating here for a long time, so I don't have that much to go by).
    • The first point automaticaly prompts the second. When I said I would suspect Gac, I was thinking along the lines of: Someone getting much better at night? He might receive help at formulating his posts by an more experienced player. I don't think this realy fits anymore. But in case Gac flips and he flips red, I would strongly suspect at least one of Mr Popo or AV to be a wolf as well.
    • I am better at games with stronger mechanical interactions. They are easier to use than the peoples part of the game, which takes experience I don't have. Since there is not much mechanic info, I am going to rely more on following peoples with more experience.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions

  25. - Top - End - #235
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    The greatest teacher is failure, and let me tell you something, I have a town win rate that is significantly underwater.
    That is true, my actions in the Percy Jackson game was pretty much the wrong ones from beginning to (a rather quick) end but I ended up learning quite a bit from it. Though by this logic I'm bound to suck as town, since I've won all the games I've been town (which sounds impressive until I remember that it's only two games and my first two games to boot, so I wasn't exactly a key player in our wins. )

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I will admit I got a little caught up on defending against Mr.
    Popo at first but since then I remembered something important... My surviving matters not at all. In fact I can't remember the last time I was lynched. I get night killed all the time and have several times made it to the end of the game but a straight up lynch? Might even be a bit refreshing. I also would rather mislynch someone like myself in a way that sparks conversation more than I'd like to quietly have town lynch and inactive to avoid auto lynching.
    Although I generally feel better about gac after my ISO, this feels... I don't know... a little forced? Not enough to push me in either direction exactly, but I don't like. (Though as with my reaction to Snow's defense, it's based a lot on how I think I would act, so I could be way off. Most people aren't me, after all).

  26. - Top - End - #236
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Let's look at things.

    For these I am assuming worst case scenario for town performance (all mislynch and wolf night kill always works) and 3 wolves. I don't think the premise will change with 4 wolves though specifics might. Also assuming the inactives are town.

    Spoiler: No-Autolynch
    Show

    Day 1 14-3
    Day 2 12-3
    Day 3 10-3
    Day 4 8-3
    Day 5 6-3
    Day 6 4-3 (Lynch or Lose)


    Spoiler: Current Auto lynch with a mislynch today
    Show

    Day 1 14-3
    Day 2 12-3
    Day 3 7-3
    Day 4 5-3
    Day 5 3-3 (Lynch or Lose or straight loss depending on how ties are ran)


    Spoiler: Lynching an Inactive
    Show

    Day 1 14-3
    Day 2 12-3 (wasted day)
    Day 3 8-3
    Day 4 6-3
    Day 5 4-3 (Lynch or Lose)


    So optimal we have 6 days if there were no inactives.

    Either auto lynch situation gives us 5 days.

    Technically depending on tie rules, we might be down to four if we lynch a townie today. But since today is functionally wasted if we focus on lynching an inactive instead of talking it's pretty comparable.

    It's actually closer to the same than I thought. But still if it's essentially the same, I'm a fan of the one that doesn't involve us spending a whole day not voting and instead trying to lynch an inactive.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also I could have made mistakes. I encourage others to fact check me because I already made one mistake initially that I fixed before posting.

  27. - Top - End - #237
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Spoiler: Snowblaze ISO (UNFINISHED BUT DONT WANT FORUM TO SWALLOW IT)
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I'm about to do something very out of character: start a game with a mechanics wallpost. But I have a plan, and I think that plan will work.

    Step 1: The Countess claims their role publicly.

    Step 2: The Princess reveals themselves.

    Step 3: Tonight, all town Handmaidens should target the Countess. If the wolves try to kill the Princess the Countess should redirect the kill to themselves. Other town roles shouldn't target either. This should be repeated on future nights.

    "But what's so good about this plan?"

    It gives us two confirmed town who wolves can't nightkill in the short-term. That means town has people who can be trusted, and also means there are two less people who could be suspected.

    "But what if the Princess/Countess are unused roles?"

    That's why I asked for the Countess to claim first. If the Princess claims when the Countess isn't in the game, wolves can just kill them. But if the Countess claims and there's no Princess, we can still proceed with the plan, just with only the Countess protected.

    (The above means that the Princess shouldn't reveal until and unless we have a Countess claim.)

    "But what if wolves, knowing the Countess is an unused role, fakeclaim it?"

    If wolves want to trade being able to kill the Princess night one for one of them being outed as soon as the Prince(s) use their actions, then that's fine by me. A 1 for 1 trade is pro-town.

    "But what if there aren't any town Handmaidens on night one?"

    That is the largest problem with my plan. If that's the case, the Countess dies night one and the Princess night two. But I did the maths (assuming three wolves, two unused roles, and roles allocated randomly with no respect for alignment) and there's a 1/12 chance that will happen. That's a risk I'm prepared to take.

    ďBut what if youíre a wolf and know there are no town Handmaidens?Ē

    Iím not. Honestly. Trust me.

    "But the Baron can't set up QTs with our confirmed town."

    True. But the setup is designed so that most of the discussion will be taking place in public anyway, so the disadvantage is relatively minor compared to what town gains from the plan.



    So. If you think the plan shouldn't go ahead, please say so (and explain why) asap. Otherwise, the Countess can claim whenever they're ready. (I'm implying pretty strongly that I'm not currently the Countess, so I may as well just say it outright. I'm not the Countess. Please don't speculate about my role in thread.)

    And, you know, remember we need to hunt wolves as well. I'm going to try not to spend too much time debating the merits of this plan now I've made my case.

    In other news, my schedule is extremely unpredictable after the next three hours. Knowing me Iíll still be posting too much, though! Iím also probably going to end up writing some RP at some point.

    And in other other news, Batcathat - partly OMGUS, partly so we have wagons.
    The plan has been debated to death at this point. I don't wish to rehash the entire argument within this ISO, so I will say I could see Snow suggesting this plan regardless of alignment, and so I'm not counting it for or against her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Not sure I want to go quite as far as mass-claiming just yet. Thereís a lot of unknowns and a lot of info weíre giving the wolves. But thatís still step one of my plan accomplished... no, Iím a good guy. I should not be cackling evilly.

    Princess, reveal yourself whenever youíre ready.

    Also, like the song... I need to start thinking up my own!
    This kinda feels like "is what i just did wolfy lol oh well", which I'm not fond of. Speaking out against mass claiming and giving a solid reason for it balances that out, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Mmm... sure. Not talking about mechanics is something I can get behind.
    Town!Snowblaze put a lot of time and effort into coming up with the plan and even thinking of some counterarguments to the inevitable disagreements that would arise. And yet she's backed off awfully quickly on it once she got serious pushback from a few players. Granted, popo makes a persuasive argument, but it's still NAGL that she backed off that soon.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I mean, I'd say that claiming a role that's guaranteed to be town is pretty deserving of a townread, but ymmv.

    ...now how paranoid should I be about the fact you're townreading me?

    I've worked out what I'm doing for my RP and will get to work on putting together a scene. No song ideas yet, though!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ta-da, one short RP scene.


    The servant was not happy. Not that she showed that, of course; outwardly she was all smiles and curtsies and "yes sir, no ma'am". But she was not happy.

    She had a family, for heaven's sake. It was her sister's birthday in three days, and if this investigation wasn't done by then she'd miss it. And they hadn't even let her send a message to them to stop them worrying about her. Surely there were better ways to find a conspiracy?

    Besides, if the people asked too many questions they might discover her secret. And that wasn't going to happen unless it was on her own terms.
    This is good pushback against blade, feels confident. I like it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Slight nitpick, @Jeen: the Baron canít network with the confirmed town under my plan. The Princess can only be targeted by the nightkill once theyíve revealed and the Handmaidens prevent other actions from resolving on the Countess.

    Also, I just realised: with Caoimhin narrating we donít have a resident vote counter any more.

    Batcathat 2 (Supagoof, Snowblaze)
    Libro 2 (AvatarVecna, Xihirli)
    Snowblaze 1 (Batcathat)
    Mr Popo 1 (bladescape)
    Supagoof 1 (gac3)
    Rogan 1 (Book Wombat)
    AvatarVecna 1 (JeenLeen)
    Posted without voting: Mr Popo
    Yet to post: Libro, Rogan, rogue_alchemist, EmmyNecromancer
    I think having our little community has gotten very used to having a constant handle on how the vote is shifting, and while in one-offs it tends to be IIoA, I like Snowblaze more for realizing why it was absent and setting out to deal with that absence herself. Slight townie points, even as I'm kinda counting against other people for doing bare votecounts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Spoiler: Handmaiden maths
    Show

    My reasoning: we have 16 roles, of which 3 are wolves and two unused. So the probability of the first Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 5/16.

    Given this, there are 15 roles left of which 4 are unused, so the probability of the second Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 4/15.

    Multiplying this gives 1/12. Though now I think about it Iím really scared Iím going about it the wrong way. I hate probability sometimes.


    Can I get peopleís thoughts on Roganís post above? A lot of it is talking about me so I might be biased.

    Also, Rogan, how random is your AV vote?
    This math is correct is if we have 3 wolves. If we have 4 wolves, that's 4 Wolf / 2 Unused, so 6/16 chance the first handmaid isn't town, and 5/15 chance the second handmaid isn't town. That's 30/240, or 1/8. If there's 5 wolves, it becomes 7/16 x 6/15, or 42/240, or 7/40 (almost 1/5).

    I doubt there's 5 wolves, but given how some recent games have got for a three-wolf team in similarly-sized games (Xihirli's game of 12 with 3 wolves went disastrously for scumteam, grumble grumble grumble), I could easily see a 4-wolf team. I'm not necessarily saying Snowblaze is scum for pretending only 3-scum teams are a possibility, but I think it would be very strange for town!Snow not to consider the possibility and include that for the sake of completion.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    It's more a general thing, wrt the Rogan post. My gut thinks their treatment of me could be wolfy but I tend to second-guess my early reads a lot.

    Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.

    I wouldn't say I can "break the game open" with my plan; I just think it's beneficial to town at (relatively) little risk.
    Wish-wash-wish-wash

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    To her unhappiness, the servant added confusion. She knew about the games nobles played for royal favour and the luxuries it brought. But this was altogether a different game. And one that could be far more dangerous.

    Was the person naming themselves a god of death part of the conspiracy, or did they simply enjoy courting controversy? Were their accusers trying to pervert justice, or trying in good faith to find the Queen's followers? Why would the man who had before been silent ask such peculiar questions?

    And, most of all, why did she have to be caught in the middle of this mess?

    (Hey, this is actually a pretty good outlet for general confusion and paranoia!)

    Also I see Rogan is paranoid about me. I suppose I should take it as a compliment. It makes sense, I guess. I'll think about it, but right now I need to do IRL stuff. See you all later/tomorrow.
    RP post. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Yes. That is what happened. I don't know whether the claim is real.

    Also: how do you forget a game started... when you already posted in it?

    Also also: I'm the Princess. Honestly. Definitely not lying.
    Slight townie points for playing princess games with us.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Well. I was really hoping that wouldnít happen.

    (What is it about people fakeclaiming specifically Libroís role? I mean, Iím assuming heís the real Countess since it makes no sense otherwise.)

    So, uh... how does fakeclaiming Countess make any shred of sense for Mr Popo as any alignment? Based on his posts so far I think heís crazy enough that there are worlds where he would do it as town. But...

    (*insert significant amounts of WIFOM that donít get me any closer to a conclusion here*)

    ...letís just say I would really appreciate an explanation.

    Will be afk for a few hours, but Iíll try and find some townreads when I get back.
    I still don't understand why Snowblaze didn't want a counterclaim to happen. Counterclaims are almost exclusively good for town cuz it means somebody has definitely gotten caught telling a big lie. Granted, I didn't vote the counterclaimed Popo cuz it seemed obvious to me that it wasn't meant to be serious, but Snow seemed to be taking it seriously.

    I can understand why it's causing an anyeurism though - Popo fakeclaiming as scum requires a scumplay that's either braindead or megamind, and fakeclaiming as town just looks like it's creating chaos. I see the reason for it though, and I'm glad Mr Popo isn't dead. For now, at least.

    Anyway, NAI on Snow for this post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Still here. Still confused and paranoid.

    I think I townread Mr Popo but thereís at least one part of me thatís screaming that itís a terrible idea and I shouldnít do it.

    Iíd be down to vote JeenLeen, theyíre probably the closest thing to a wolfread I have rn.

    Now I actually need to go.
    NAI, JeenLeen was a solid vote at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    General replies to AV, not quoting because I don't trust myself with quotes.

    That "secrets" line in my RP does look rather like I'm soft-claiming Princess, doesn't it? (Being Chaotic is actually fun, I should try it more often!)

    The Princess not being able to network isn't because of what you've said, it's because once they've revealed they can't be targeted by actions other than the nightkill. There are probably some variants of the plan that would work differently but it's not really relevant at this stage. I'm done with mechanics.

    On "I was hoping that wouldn't happen": I wasn't expecting town to fakeclaim confirmed town roles. Also I wanted a day one without counterclaims and that sort of drama for once. Which was stupid of me, really.

    Why am I the only one who doesn't get words about why I'm town?

    And on bladescape, a) he said he'd be casual this game and b) he was a wolf in the last three games so acting differently isn't really a fair reason to suspect him.
    I still think drama is good for winning games. Boring D1s don't catch scum. Slight scum points.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I already hardclaimed Princess. I'll do it again, if you like: I'm the Princess ;)
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    A few notes:

    I donít necessarily agree with every aspect of Mr Popoís cases, but I agree with his conclusions; I independently think Jeen/gac3/BW have all been wolfy to some extent.

    Iím not as confident on the townreads of bladescape or Xihirli as he is, I think both could fake their posts so far as wolves. Plus theyíre both always wolves, going by recent statistics.

    And itís Batcathat, not Batthecat. Speaking of whom, if you want an alternate wagon, why not start one yourself? (Just... ignore the unholy mess that is the grammar of that sentence.)

    Yeah. Itís probably not this easy - a rule I made for myself a while back was ďif you think youíve solved the game on day one, youíre wrongĒ. But I also think itís too early to be re-evaluating and tinfoiling, and thereís a pretty good chance Jeen is a wolf (I was just going to say the fact they havenít posted recently doesnít look great, then I remembered they said in recruitment theyíd be less active on weekends.)

    So Iím okay with the gamestate as a whole rn - this will probably be my last post before EOD so I wanted to make that clear.
    I think during the JeenLeen drama I read this and thought "this is saying to lynch Jeen but also arguing that maybe people should ease off". I was mentally considering Snowblaze for my follow-up after JeenLeen flipped scum...except JeenLeen flipped town, ruining my plans.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    RIP bladescape. It is possible for you to be town after all.

    Hmm. Iíll start by poking Book Wombat.

    I feel like thereís exactly one wolf in Rogan/Batcathat. Re-evaluating both of those is my first task for today.

    Willing to help with unpairings at some point but Iíll be busy IRL this morning so analysis will have to wait.
    This sounds like a Rogan/Batcathat unpairing but I haven't gotten that feel from reading the thread. Can you explain how you got to this conclusion?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Batcathat

    - randomly voting me.

    - joking about killing AV.

    - townreading Xihirli. I like this, itís some good in-depth analysis. The paranoia at the end could be seen as hedging but BCH is paranoid in general so I donít think itís wolfy here.

    - fluff.

    - time zone stuff.

    - paranoia about me. I feel like thatís the sort of thing wolves would want to encourage... but, like I said earlier, Batcathat is paranoid in general. (I think theyíre more likely to be paranoid as town - though Iíve never actually played with town!BCH before.)

    - mechanics speculation. (Side-note: that quoted BW post is pinging me a lot.)

    - more mechanics.

    - yet more mechanics. Although Iíd like to note that itís mostly in response to other peopleís mechanics talk, offering clarification/reactions. Which is fine.

    - first to vote Jeen; obviously that doesnít earn as much towncred given the flip but I still think itís mildly towny as it was a valid point and one I agreed with.

    - reads list; nothing particularly controversial but thereís enough there to stop me invoking ďreads list without many readsĒ.

    - post 140 was my major point of suspicion. Mostly because of the suggestion of alternate wagons but lack of an attempt to actually create one.

    - lots of agreeing with me. Which is fine. Probably not trying to pocket me. They didnít respond to my asking them to start an alternate wagon.

    - starting day two with more paranoia.


    I actually feel pretty good about BCH coming out of this. Theyíre a townread, especially if skimming through recent games indicates Iím right about the paranoia.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Based on recent posts, Rogan/gac3 not w/w. One unpairing done!
    I'm surprised you're not already voting Rogan, given you seem sure BCH is town and that there's one scum between Rogan and BCH.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Aw. I was enjoying not being suspected.

    Meh... some of the points in gac3's post are fair, others not so much.

    - Caoimhin specified which roles would exist, but Princess/Countess could have been in the unused roles and not exist until swapped in by a Prince.

    - After "I can get behind talking about mechanics" the only mechanical posts I made were an explanation of my maths and correcting Jeen's statement about the Baron networking.

    - I'll admit I was... kind of slacking a bit yesterday. A combination of being consensus town and Mr Popo doing so much analysis I guess led me to sit back and let things unfold maybe more than I normally would.

    - I can't be bothered to self-ISO again to see how much I actually contributed but I'm pretty sure it's more than is suggested. I remember saying I found you/Jeen/Wombat wolfy and wasn't too confident in townreading bladescape/Xihirli.

    - I wouldn't say I've been too defensive - she says, partway through a wallpost defending herself. But there's a difference between responding to accusations and being defensive. I'm doing the former.


    Anyway, I'm on mobile and have shaky internet, but I should be back to ISO Rogan this afternoon.
    I'm happy enough with Snow's contributions - good or bad, more talking means more stuff to analyze. I don't know if Snow is somebody I wanna hang, but she's definitely giving me enough rope to do the deed if I need it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Okay, back.

    I townread Xihirli now.

    gac3 is... probably my biggest problem to figure out right now. My first thought when I saw their ISOs last night was "that's an awful lot of IIOA"; I still agree with AV's interpretation over Mr Popo's (though I should probably reread the latter's explanation, I only really skimmed it earlier. Though today's seemed a bit better. I think I need to see their thoughts on Rogan before I make a judgement on that.

    Going to go and do that Batcathat meta-dive I mentioned earlier, then I'll stop procrastinating and ISO Rogan.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Read through Mr Popo's gac3 townread. It seems to me like he's reading a bit too much into stuff gac3 isn't really saying. But it might be I'm just not crazy (in a good way) enough to get it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay, having skimmed through Afterlife: welcome to my town core, Batcathat.

    The other residents are Libro, Mr Popo, Xihirli and... to add AV or not to add AV, that is the question... yeah. Let's do it. AV can be town, for today at least.

    That leaves gac3/BW/Rogan/Emmy/Supagoof/rogue.

    Three wolves in there? Is that plausible?

    - - - Updated - - -

    gac3 isn't w/w with Rogan or Supagoof, so either
    a) my towncore is wrong
    b) the team is exactly Book Wombat/Rogan/Supagoof
    c) there's a wolf in the inactives

    Of which c) is the most probable imo.

    I'm normally against "lynch the inactives" but I think this game might be an exception.

    That being said I'm not voting for Emmy rn. Partly because she's already lead wagon, and partly because I don't want to mislynch her after last game.

    (Also is it bad that just the act of creating a POE makes me paranoid it's wrong? Probably. As long as I re-evaluate every day it's still a good strategy, though.)
    Strong townie points, there's some good solving efforts in here. The only sticking point is that I have no idea what Xihirli has done to get townread (granted, she's basically null for me, but still).

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Meh, I can't be bothered to push through my utter lack of motivation to ISO Rogan. I'll go reread the thread, see if I find anything I've missed or new unpairings within the POE.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Tired and slowly losing focus. I'll take a break. But first:

    Things had, indeed, gone wrong. Not only had an innocent guard been arrested, the conspirators had poisoned that nice noble who'd praised her yesterday.

    She could be next. And she really didn't want to die, especially when - no. She refused to think about it. She was not going to die.

    And the best way to make sure that happened was to find the queen's followers. There would be no more quiet observation. She was going to have them arrested. Whatever it took.
    Maaaaaan I feel that. I should've gone to bed three hours again, and I can feel my focus slipping between my fingers the past few posts in this ISO. I'll stop this ISO here and pick up the rest after I get at least a nap or something. I'd like to get everybody's ISO'd before EoD. I was supposed to ISO popo but got distracted ISOing everybody else first. >.<

    Alright I'm back. Nothing in this post feels particularly AI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Struggling to parse your second reason there: Rogan isnít one of the inactives. Those are EmmyNecromancer and rogue_alchemist, neither of whom have posted at all.

    Good luck catching up with day one, and I look forward to seeing more thoughts once you have.
    Good little callout. Slight townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Yay, something I can talk about!

    Twelve alive, assume 9-3 or 8-4 then townflip today, town nightkilled, town!rogue and Emmy auto-lynch gives us 5-3 or 4-4 which... I did not realise the numbers were that bad.

    We could be in MyLo tomorrow. If there are four wolves, we could *lose* tomorrow. That is most definitely not worth an extra day's discussion, especially since it would only be half a day atp.

    Also: I'd be willing to bet there's a wolf in the inactives rn.

    Also also: we can still discuss things. In fact, since I see you still haven't looked at Rogan, gac3, could you do that? (I'll do the same if I can find time/WiFi today)
    Yup. Each inactive moves LYLO up half a phase. Granted, at this point Emmy isn't gonna autolynch regardless, but we should still lynch her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Fair point. Still not a wolf, though. Speaking of which... I think I need to do something about all this tinfoil coming my way.
    NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    So. I think people are holding my play to an unrealistic standard, as both alignments.

    I couldn't fake my play this game as a wolf. And I'm not "better than this". Sure, I slacked off and procrastinated a bit, but I don't think I've played terribly this game. Also, I have precisely one town game in the last year, and the circumstances of that were pretty different to this game. (Well, day one, at least. Day two is more similar.)

    So why am I town?

    a) the Plan. I don't do that as a wolf. Explaining why exactly requires quite a lot of self-meta, so warning for that ahead.

    I don't like making risky plays as a wolf. I know Percy Jackson and all the crazy stuff that happened in that is counter-evidence, but I did all of those things because I was screwed anyway. If I hadn't changed my claim I would have been outed the moment Batcathat flipped. 99% chance of death is better than 100% chance of death.

    This game is different. If I'm a wolf, I don't make that kind of big move right at the beginning. If I'm proposing a deliberately flawed plan then there's a pretty big risk someone finds the flaws.

    If I'm proposing a plan I genuinely think is pro-town... I'm putting my team at a disadvantage for what, towncred? I'm not going to get to endgame solely on that, and I'm confident enough in my ability to not get caught day one that I donít need the towncred just for survival.

    And itís not like ďSnowblaze always proposes mechanical plans as town so she feels obliged to do it as wolfĒ because I donít. I think this is the first game Iíve ever opened with a mechanics wall.

    That not enough to clear me? b) bladescape.

    He wolfed with me in Percy Jackson, he knows how wolf!me thinks, and he hard townread me from page one to night one. Even supposing I was able to fool him, why on earth would I ever kill him night one? Especially when thereís a confirmed Countess and a Mr Popo who I would be terrified of as a wolf.

    Beyond that itís more ďaccording to my vague impression of my own meta I couldnít fake the solving Iíve been doing so farĒ which doesnít really get you anywhere.

    Anyway, Iím doing this because realising how close we are to LyLo/MyLo has made me paranoid, and being paranoid I think itís possible that wolves are setting me up for a late-game mislynch due to me not being trusted. Which means itís important that I shut down that possibility ASAP.

    Right. I am now going to ISO Rogan. If I donít have a completed Rogan ISO posted by EOD, you can ignore everything I just said and lynch me.
    There's some good arguments here and it matches up with my knowledge of Snow.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Having stared at Rogan's first post for a while, I've reached a few realisations:
    a) I don't know how to read Rogan
    b) I have little to no confidence in my reads or my POE any more
    c) there's a lot of IRL stuff I should be doing which is more productive

    One thing I will say is that if Rogan is a wolf, I'm probably misclearing someone. In Craziest Idea when I called him and his teammates out early on he responded by pushing me for a "scumslip"; I don't think wolf!Rogan would come round to a townread if I have a correct POE.

    Confused, paranoid and in need of a break. Sorry for not having more confidence or solid wolfreads.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Yeah, it would be good if you could look through me. And please list your concerns so I can work through them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Rogan (2): gac3, Supagoof
    EmmyNecromancer (4): AvatarVecna, Mr Popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
    gac3 (1): Libro
    Posted but didn't vote (2): Batcathat, Rogan
    No posts today (2): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist

    - - - Updated - - -

    General question: if there's a wolf in my towncore, who is it?

    For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo.

    Going to go now. Will probably be back sometime before EOD.
    My current answer would be Xihirli, but also I haven't ISO'd Batcathat or Mr Popo yet, so I should probably just stay out of that question.


    So far I think snowblaze is probably fine? I'll revisit this in like 6 hours, hopefully. >.<

    EDIT: Slight town lean on Snowblaze. There's a number of things here I don't like, but there's some solid arguments and good analysis - some of which I don't think scum would be doing.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Let's look at things.

    For these I am assuming worst case scenario for town performance (all mislynch and wolf night kill always works) and 3 wolves. I don't think the premise will change with 4 wolves though specifics might. Also assuming the inactives are town.

    Spoiler: No-Autolynch
    Show

    Day 1 14-3
    Day 2 12-3
    Day 3 10-3
    Day 4 8-3
    Day 5 6-3
    Day 6 4-3 (Lynch or Lose)


    Spoiler: Current Auto lynch with a mislynch today
    Show

    Day 1 14-3
    Day 2 12-3
    Day 3 7-3
    Day 4 5-3
    Day 5 3-3 (Lynch or Lose or straight loss depending on how ties are ran)


    Spoiler: Lynching an Inactive
    Show

    Day 1 14-3
    Day 2 12-3 (wasted day)
    Day 3 8-3
    Day 4 6-3
    Day 5 4-3 (Lynch or Lose)


    So optimal we have 6 days if there were no inactives.

    Either auto lynch situation gives us 5 days.

    Technically depending on tie rules, we might be down to four if we lynch a townie today. But since today is functionally wasted if we focus on lynching an inactive instead of talking it's pretty comparable.

    It's actually closer to the same than I thought. But still if it's essentially the same, I'm a fan of the one that doesn't involve us spending a whole day not voting and instead trying to lynch an inactive.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also I could have made mistakes. I encourage others to fact check me because I already made one mistake initially that I fixed before posting.
    Here's what I found in the OP on ties:

    In the case of a tie, the role with the lowest role value (described below) will be lynched. If there is a tie, I will privately roll a die to decide.
    Alright, bedtime.
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-14 at 03:21 PM.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
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  28. - Top - End - #238
    Bugbear in the Playground
    Join Date
    Dec 2013

    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Rogan: Honestly Rogan came out swinging. First post, before even voting they weighed in on plans and the like. I wish it was less mechanical but what was there to go on at that point. Was one of the first people to double vote and their first vote wasn't entirely random like most of us. Talked a lot about how the princess role should or does work. Did a lot of pushing for people to talk. Particularly me. Repeatedly pointed out something i have decided to agree with, that voting inactive people doesn't help unless you are trying to pressure them. Overall I'm not sure what led to initial suspicion of them. They are one of the more active posters and while they seem to fixate a lot on Popo and AV, their pushing for participation is a pro. Their having reasons behind nearly every vote is a pro. Not being afraid to push starting a wagon is a pro. Most of it seemed positive. The only thing that really stood out is the fact that they had a running list of "people I won't vote at this time" and it consisted of very little information. Some had small reasons and others were silly things like enjoying Xi's RP.




    This also may be a good time to point out that I questioned Snow on the validity of the Countess and Princess not being in the game. I mistakenly assumed that "always town" and especially the details of the princess role would mean that the king and prince didn't affect them. Having read the role interactions I see my mistake.
    Last edited by gac3; 2021-09-14 at 06:28 AM.

  29. - Top - End - #239
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

    Join Date
    Nov 2019

    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Finished my ISO on Snow. Found some stuff I liked more than before and some stuff I liked less, over all I'm still rather undecided. I noticed that she kept coming back to Rogan, so maybe I'll have some more clarity on Snow after looking closer at him.

    Spoiler: ISO on Snowblaze
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    And, you know, remember we need to hunt wolves as well. I'm going to try not to spend too much time debating the merits of this plan now I've made my case.
    I missed this part the first time I read the post. I was about to point out that Snow didn't defend her plan much when people started to question it. I suppose this could be a wolf being ready to drop a plan if town doesn't bite. Does it make sense to take the time to create a plan only to drop it almost as soon as people disagree? Not sure.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    And in other other news, Batcathat - partly OMGUS, partly so we have wagons.
    Feels a little early in D1 to jump on a wagon, doesn't it?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Not sure I want to go quite as far as mass-claiming just yet. Thereís a lot of unknowns and a lot of info weíre giving the wolves. But thatís still step one of my plan accomplished... no, Iím a good guy. I should not be cackling evilly.

    Princess, reveal yourself whenever youíre ready.

    Also, like the song... I need to start thinking up my own!
    Encouraging people to follow her plan makes sense both for a townie thinking the plan's good for town and a wolf thinking it's actually bad for town.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Mmm... sure. Not talking about mechanics is something I can get behind.
    Fine with dropping the plan she thought would work after one person questions it? I don't love it but I suppose it's possible Popo convinced her it wasn't a good plan or she at least gave up on convincing him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Slight nitpick, @Jeen: the Baron canít network with the confirmed town under my plan. The Princess can only be targeted by the nightkill once theyíve revealed and the Handmaidens prevent other actions from resolving on the Countess.

    Also, I just realised: with Caoimhin narrating we donít have a resident vote counter any more.
    Mechanics discussion. Doesn't really seem to be pushing neither for nor against her plan, though I could see that from a townie unsure of the plan's merits too.

    Acting vote counter is helpful, but it could also be a clever wolf move to contribute without really contributing much. Though the fact that she keeps analyzing and discussing probably speaks against that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Spoiler: Handmaiden maths
    Show

    My reasoning: we have 16 roles, of which 3 are wolves and two unused. So the probability of the first Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 5/16.

    Given this, there are 15 roles left of which 4 are unused, so the probability of the second Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 4/15.

    Multiplying this gives 1/12. Though now I think about it Iím really scared Iím going about it the wrong way. I hate probability sometimes.


    Can I get peopleís thoughts on Roganís post above? A lot of it is talking about me so I might be biased.

    Also, Rogan, how random is your AV vote?
    I can't really speak about the math part. Could be a way to get town cred without risking accusating any wolves.

    Asking for a read speaks against gac's point that I liked about her not doing that as much as usual. Of course, doing it about Rogan in particular could be an indirect way to throwing suspicions on him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    It's more a general thing, wrt the Rogan post. My gut thinks their treatment of me could be wolfy but I tend to second-guess my early reads a lot.

    Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.

    I wouldn't say I can "break the game open" with my plan; I just think it's beneficial to town at (relatively) little risk.
    The thing about the time-zones could be a wolf's way of endearing themselves to me and Rogan (assuming he's town). But I'm probably overthinking it, it makes sense coming for either wolf or town.

    Still in favor of her plan. Could be a sign that her lacking defense for it is what she said about not wanting to debate its merits rather than a wolf distancing themselves from an anti-town plan when it's questioned.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Yes. That is what happened. I don't know whether the claim is real.

    Also: how do you forget a game started... when you already posted in it?

    Also also: I'm the Princess. Honestly. Definitely not lying.
    Seems less sure about Popo's claim than earlier, compare to "Princess, reveal yourself whenever youíre ready". But that could be genuinely changing opinion based on what happend in between.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Well. I was really hoping that wouldnít happen.

    (What is it about people fakeclaiming specifically Libroís role? I mean, Iím assuming heís the real Countess since it makes no sense otherwise.)

    So, uh... how does fakeclaiming Countess make any shred of sense for Mr Popo as any alignment? Based on his posts so far I think heís crazy enough that there are worlds where he would do it as town. But...

    (*insert significant amounts of WIFOM that donít get me any closer to a conclusion here*)

    ...letís just say I would really appreciate an explanation.

    Will be afk for a few hours, but Iíll try and find some townreads when I get back.
    Seems like a pretty reasonble reaction to what happened.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Still here. Still confused and paranoid.

    I think I townread Mr Popo but thereís at least one part of me thatís screaming that itís a terrible idea and I shouldnít do it.

    Iíd be down to vote JeenLeen, theyíre probably the closest thing to a wolfread I have rn.

    Now I actually need to go.
    I can't exactly fault anyone for voting Jeen. I'm not seeing much of an explanation for why Jeen's her strongest wolf read but it might just be agreeing with what other people have said already, including him suggesting lynching Snow for questionable reasons.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    That "secrets" line in my RP does look rather like I'm soft-claiming Princess, doesn't it? (Being Chaotic is actually fun, I should try it more often!)
    "If I'm acting differently it's for fun, not because I'm a wolf". Though that might be overthinking things again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    The Princess not being able to network isn't because of what you've said, it's because once they've revealed they can't be targeted by actions other than the nightkill. There are probably some variants of the plan that would work differently but it's not really relevant at this stage. I'm done with mechanics.

    On "I was hoping that wouldn't happen": I wasn't expecting town to fakeclaim confirmed town roles. Also I wanted a day one without counterclaims and that sort of drama for once. Which was stupid of me, really.
    More mechanics. Not expecting everything about Popo's claim and Libro's counter-claim is probably true, whether town or wolf.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    A few notes:

    I donít necessarily agree with every aspect of Mr Popoís cases, but I agree with his conclusions; I independently think Jeen/gac3/BW have all been wolfy to some extent.

    Iím not as confident on the townreads of bladescape or Xihirli as he is, I think both could fake their posts so far as wolves. Plus theyíre both always wolves, going by recent statistics.

    And itís Batcathat, not Batthecat. Speaking of whom, if you want an alternate wagon, why not start one yourself? (Just... ignore the unholy mess that is the grammar of that sentence.)

    Yeah. Itís probably not this easy - a rule I made for myself a while back was ďif you think youíve solved the game on day one, youíre wrongĒ. But I also think itís too early to be re-evaluating and tinfoiling, and thereís a pretty good chance Jeen is a wolf (I was just going to say the fact they havenít posted recently doesnít look great, then I remembered they said in recruitment theyíd be less active on weekends.)

    So Iím okay with the gamestate as a whole rn - this will probably be my last post before EOD so I wanted to make that clear.
    This matches most of my own thoughts at the time so could be town but could also be a wolf pleased with how the discussions are going.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    RIP bladescape. It is possible for you to be town after all.

    Hmm. Iíll start by poking Book Wombat.

    I feel like thereís exactly one wolf in Rogan/Batcathat. Re-evaluating both of those is my first task for today.

    Willing to help with unpairings at some point but Iíll be busy IRL this morning so analysis will have to wait.
    The vote for BW is reasonable, I think. I don't really understand the reasoning behind the either/or for me and Rogan. I feel like Rogan and I haven't really had much to say about each other this game (aside from sharing a time-zone) which if anything could point to both of us being wolves. I'll keep this in mind if/when I look over Rogan's posts, maybe we hade more interactions than I remember.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I actually feel pretty good about BCH coming out of this. Theyíre a townread, especially if skimming through recent games indicates Iím right about the paranoia.
    Hard to be objective about a read about myself but I suppose a wolfy Snow could've had a decent case about me based on being an early vote for Jeen. Though considering Snow voted Jeen too and no one seemed very suspicious of me, it probably wouldn't be an easy sell so I can see a wolf skipping that and trying to look towny to me instead,

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Based on recent posts, Rogan/gac3 not w/w. One unpairing done!
    I'll probably get back to this if/when I've read Rogan's posts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    - I wouldn't say I've been too defensive - she says, partway through a wallpost defending herself. But there's a difference between responding to accusations and being defensive. I'm doing the former.
    Maybe. But it feels like she's doing the latter a little later.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I townread Xihirli now.
    There's not much to go on regarding Xi, but I'm also leaning town on her. Some more motivations would have been nice, but not having them is hardly a smoking gun.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    gac3 is... probably my biggest problem to figure out right now. My first thought when I saw their ISOs last night was "that's an awful lot of IIOA"; I still agree with AV's interpretation over Mr Popo's (though I should probably reread the latter's explanation, I only really skimmed it earlier. Though today's seemed a bit better. I think I need to see their thoughts on Rogan before I make a judgement on that.
    A lot of back and forth on gac, but as something of an expert on that myself, I can't really fault that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Okay, having skimmed through Afterlife: welcome to my town core, Batcathat.

    The other residents are Libro, Mr Popo, Xihirli and... to add AV or not to add AV, that is the question... yeah. Let's do it. AV can be town, for today at least.

    That leaves gac3/BW/Rogan/Emmy/Supagoof/rogue.

    Three wolves in there? Is that plausible?
    Nice to be included. Those are probably my strongest town leans as well and Ė assuming I'm not incorrect about all of them Ė confidently calling out likely townspeople as such doesn't seem very wolfy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Meh, I can't be bothered to push through my utter lack of motivation to ISO Rogan. I'll go reread the thread, see if I find anything I've missed or new unpairings within the POE.
    I don't like this. Snow keeps coming back to Rogan if not as a suspect than at least as a person of interest but doesn't ISO him? Seems odd, though as someone who recently took up the noble art of ISO, I can sort of see not having the energy to do it. Still, I don't like this at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Struggling to parse your second reason there: Rogan isnít one of the inactives. Those are EmmyNecromancer and rogue_alchemist, neither of whom have posted at all.

    Good luck catching up with day one, and I look forward to seeing more thoughts once you have.
    Reasonable question and since I've felt like a hypotethically wolfy Snow has sort of been pushing a little for lynching Rogan, I like how she questioned a vote against him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Yay, something I can talk about!

    Twelve alive, assume 9-3 or 8-4 then townflip today, town nightkilled, town!rogue and Emmy auto-lynch gives us 5-3 or 4-4 which... I did not realise the numbers were that bad.

    We could be in MyLo tomorrow. If there are four wolves, we could *lose* tomorrow. That is most definitely not worth an extra day's discussion, especially since it would only be half a day atp.

    Also: I'd be willing to bet there's a wolf in the inactives rn.

    Also also: we can still discuss things. In fact, since I see you still haven't looked at Rogan, gac3, could you do that? (I'll do the same if I can find time/WiFi today)
    More math. Again pushing for reads about Rogan (but see above for a suggestion that Snow's not a wolf working to lynch Rogan). I've already commented on her pushing for a read after gac pointed out her not pushing for reads much this game.

    Then her big defense post. The arguments themselves are decent (except maybe for the one about blade) but I still feel like being this defensive seems a bit wolfy, especially when not actually a likely lynch.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Having stared at Rogan's first post for a while, I've reached a few realisations:
    a) I don't know how to read Rogan
    b) I have little to no confidence in my reads or my POE any more
    c) there's a lot of IRL stuff I should be doing which is more productive
    More about Rogan. Probably fair to say that it's unlikely for both Rogan and Snow to be wolves (or is she doing a very ambitious job of distancing herself in case he flips? Unlikely but not impossible, I think).

  30. - Top - End - #240
    Barbarian in the Playground
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Location
    Germany
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Okay, I spend my time mostly reading day 2, with a focus on some players that have something in common. I think you will find out what I mean very fast. Since there are too many posts to quote, I gathered the post numbers and made a short summary.

    Spoiler: The posts
    Show

    Sorted by player and time:

    gac3; #186; Vote for me, no review.
    gac3; #197; Multiple reviews, but None for me.
    gac3; #216; Advocates against shooting inactives. (Includes himself as as possible target)
    gac3; #233; Paints himself as more wolfish than town. Is willing to get lynched. Opposed to lynching inactives. Promises a read on me and math about the inactive lynch.
    gac3; #235; The prommised math on inactives. Encourages a fact check.
    gac3; #238; The prommised review.

    Snow; #190; Promisses to review BatCatHat and me, thinks one of us is wolf.
    Snow; #193; Reviews BatCatHat, reads him as town. Rogan/gac not w/w.
    Snow; #200; Answers to some suspiccion for her. Prommisses an Rogan ISO for this afternoon.
    Snow; #203; Townread Xi, BCH, AV. Wants to see gac3 commenting on me. Prommisses to ISO me herself.
    Snow; #204; Takes back her promise to ISO me. (Lack of motivation)
    Snow; #218; Math about inactives & auto lynch. Reminds gac of doing a review on me. Suggests she would do one as well.
    Snow; #220; Agrees with BCHs slight shade for herself. "Need to do something about all this tinfoil coming my way"
    Snow; #222; Calls herself Overrated. Defends herself, including self meta. Fields Blades d1 town read as evidence. Promisses an ISO for me (again).
    Snow; #224; Gives up the ISO again. Doesn't know how to read me. Doesn't know how to read anybody. Wellcomes BatCatHats plan to review her (#223). Asking for the possible wolf in her towncore. "For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo."

    Supagoof; #205; RL reason for being quiet. Claims guard, no night action taken. Votes for me. Says he would have targeted me night 1.
    Supagoof; #209; Unsure about me, wants to hear more. Defends himself.

    BatCatHat; #208; Flip-Flop on gac3, me, (Snow?, Mr Popo?). Not much substance to any read.
    BatCatHat; #211; gac3 ISO. Still flip flopping.
    BatCatHat; #217; Agrees with gac3 about #216 (Not lynching inactives). RL explanation for being quite / saving serious posts for later.
    BatCatHat; #219; Throwing some shade at snow about #218.
    BatCatHat; #223; Again, throwing shade at snow without actually commiting to anything. Wants to do an ISO for her.
    BatCatHat; #235; Joking about being a bad townie. Still flip flopping on gac3.



    Spoiler: Bonus Quote
    Show

    Quote Originally Posted by Libro View Post
    gac3 feels off, enough to warrant my vote over the inactives.

    No other wolf-y reads atm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Library - Uncontested Countess claim.
    LOL.

    Autocorrect strikes again?
    No, this is my subconscious telling me that you and Book Wombat are in league!
    Just joking. It was autocorrect.


    So, what do I make out of those Posts? Gac takes his time till he actually does a read on me, but he delivers. We agree about the inactives a lot. 233 is something I realy like. I would rather read an honest review that makes me seem wolvish than a review with high praises that makes me locked town. Best, of course is an honest review that makes me locked town, based on facts instead of praise.

    I might be influenced by his read, but I am still going to say, gac is town.




    The next in Line is Snow.
    There are things that rubb me the wrong way in there, like Snows flip-flop stance on making a review / ISO for me. Or take a look at #218. She makes a math post about wanting to kill an inactive. The math used makes it seem like it's possible to loose tomorrow if we don't shoot an inactive. At the same time, she is undermining her own argument by saying this would be unlikely, since there is propably a wolf in the pile of inactives. Why would you use an action to remove a wolf, which would be automaticaly removed anyway? In a worst case, this could be a wolf, trying to sacrifice another wolf for town cred while picking a wolf that would die anyway.
    I am not sure if I realy overestimate Snow when I say she could pull this off as a wolf. Is there someone with more experience of playing with her who would be willing to comment?
    Or how about that:
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    That not enough to clear me? b) bladescape.

    He wolfed with me in Percy Jackson, he knows how wolf!me thinks, and he hard townread me from page one to night one. Even supposing I was able to fool him, why on earth would I ever kill him night one? Especially when thereís a confirmed Countess and a Mr Popo who I would be terrified of as a wolf.

    <Snip>

    Anyway, Iím doing this because realising how close we are to LyLo/MyLo has made me paranoid, and being paranoid I think itís possible that wolves are setting me up for a late-game mislynch due to me not being trusted. Which means itís important that I shut down that possibility ASAP.

    Right. I am now going to ISO Rogan. If I donít have a completed Rogan ISO posted by EOD, you can ignore everything I just said and lynch me.
    The words of nightkilled townies will be believed. Thats why Wolf!Snow would kill blades. It sets me up for a misslynch while you can use his believe to strenghten your position. You don't reduce my paranoia about you, you wake it up again, stronger than before.

    It is propably this paranoia speaking, but I wonder if you actualy post something like that to make me distrust you. You keep talking about me, how important it is to make an ISO about me, something that seemed to be prompted by Blades death. In nearly every post on day 2 I listed above, you are at least mentioning me. You seem to want to get my attention: Well, here you are! Instead of simply saying you don't know how to read me, how about asking me some questions or something? Instead of talking about me all the time, why won't you talk with me?

    Now, there are some things working in your favor as well. I agree your plan is pro town. You are regarded as town by multiple players much more experienced than I am. You might even be the Princess (the last part might actually make me MORE likely to vote for you some time later, since I literally could not kill an innocent that way (unless you don't manage to claim in bold before EoD)).

    Conclusion: I liked her day 1. I dislike her day 2. There should still be better targets for today.




    Supagoof
    He was inactive during the weekend for RL reason. As I stated before, I will never fake such a claim and I will trust such a claim when I receive it.
    But it seems like he continues to be mostly silent, which is a bad sign. Having enough activity to avoid an auto lynch, but not enough to allow for actual reads on him. Could be a wolf crusing. Those few posts I see are even worse.
    Spoiler: 209
    Show

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Just agreeing with your logic (since I had note caught up with day 1 yet), not saying Rogan was an inactive. I guess I should have stated that point clearer. Still - not 100% sure on Rogan. I would love to hear more from him.

    What can I answer for you? I'm an open book.

    Day 1 - I posted early and got 2 in before I wandered off. Been called Sugapoof before, probably will be again. Also, if you're old school enough, my alter-ego is Graklok. Sorry I didn't give much more read then those 2 posts day one. Because I am old school, I was used to having more then 1 game at a time, so back in the day - I was either switching between multiple games which forced me to be here posting more often, or narrating them, or both. I am attempting to get back into checking more often as it requires more effort now then it did with multiple games. Odd, but that way worked for me. Not used to the new style - which is my fault after being gone for about a decade. Would have thought to get back into the cadence again with Afterlife, but hard to do when I got lynched day 2.

    So - on the "don't look at the 3-card monte" game Mr. Popo is playing, and after reading his dizzying/epic novel amount of posts, he is pinging as sus still on my radar. Might be trying to do sooo much song and dance that you're so busy watching the show, you aren't paying any attention to what's going on backstage. I do love the logic he puts into it, and can see some meta-reasoning in it as well. I don't trust him, but I don't distrust him yet right now either. Ponders about him and Snowblaze working together to mask each others scent. I may just point at him for forcing me to read so much.


    He want's to read more from me? I did not count the posts made here, but I could bet I am in the top 5, maybe even top 3. This in itself does not make me town. But it deffinitly makes me a more important player to have around.
    In the same post he complains that Mr Popo talks too much.
    Spoiler: Tangent about Mr Popo
    Show

    Yes. Mr Popo is propably Number 1 regarding posts. (And he manages to do so despite having a smal child, so hats off to you!) And on day 1, his posts had contradictions, layers uppon layers. It was confusing and hard to read right. But his day 2 posts? He takes the time to explain his reads and methods. He is helpfull, willing to teach. He is still a bit arrogant and I did not bother to read his older games he mentioned somewhere to check if this arrogance is grounded or not. If he is a wolf, I don't think I could catch him. If he is Town, I am not sure if we could win without him. And I am not willing to risk this.
    Mr Popo is locked Town now.


    Conclusion: I might be overreacting to his vote, but I think he is more likely to be a Wolf than a Townie. Even if he is Town, he is not realy helpful. I still would not be happy about voting here, for a similar reason than I am not happy about shooting Rouge or Emmy. It won't yield info.




    BatCatHat
    He could be a textbook example for being unwilling to commit.
    He attacked snow, but in an increadibly weak way. I could see this as a w/w. Creating just enough conflict to be noticable, but not enough to actually push a bus.
    Did anybody make an ISO for him? This might help me reread his day 1 (which left me with a positive feeling, but nothing concrete to remember) without searching for the posts myself.

    I picked him since his flip should yield more information than the other possible targets.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Finished my ISO on Snow. Found some stuff I liked more than before and some stuff I liked less, over all I'm still rather undecided. I noticed that she kept coming back to Rogan, so maybe I'll have some more clarity on Snow after looking closer at him.

    Spoiler: ISO on Snowblaze
    Show


    I missed this part the first time I read the post. I was about to point out that Snow didn't defend her plan much when people started to question it. I suppose this could be a wolf being ready to drop a plan if town doesn't bite. Does it make sense to take the time to create a plan only to drop it almost as soon as people disagree? Not sure.



    Feels a little early in D1 to jump on a wagon, doesn't it?



    Encouraging people to follow her plan makes sense both for a townie thinking the plan's good for town and a wolf thinking it's actually bad for town.



    Fine with dropping the plan she thought would work after one person questions it? I don't love it but I suppose it's possible Popo convinced her it wasn't a good plan or she at least gave up on convincing him.



    Mechanics discussion. Doesn't really seem to be pushing neither for nor against her plan, though I could see that from a townie unsure of the plan's merits too.

    Acting vote counter is helpful, but it could also be a clever wolf move to contribute without really contributing much. Though the fact that she keeps analyzing and discussing probably speaks against that.



    I can't really speak about the math part. Could be a way to get town cred without risking accusating any wolves.

    Asking for a read speaks against gac's point that I liked about her not doing that as much as usual. Of course, doing it about Rogan in particular could be an indirect way to throwing suspicions on him.



    The thing about the time-zones could be a wolf's way of endearing themselves to me and Rogan (assuming he's town). But I'm probably overthinking it, it makes sense coming for either wolf or town.

    Still in favor of her plan. Could be a sign that her lacking defense for it is what she said about not wanting to debate its merits rather than a wolf distancing themselves from an anti-town plan when it's questioned.



    Seems less sure about Popo's claim than earlier, compare to "Princess, reveal yourself whenever youíre ready". But that could be genuinely changing opinion based on what happend in between.



    Seems like a pretty reasonble reaction to what happened.



    I can't exactly fault anyone for voting Jeen. I'm not seeing much of an explanation for why Jeen's her strongest wolf read but it might just be agreeing with what other people have said already, including him suggesting lynching Snow for questionable reasons.



    "If I'm acting differently it's for fun, not because I'm a wolf". Though that might be overthinking things again.



    More mechanics. Not expecting everything about Popo's claim and Libro's counter-claim is probably true, whether town or wolf.



    This matches most of my own thoughts at the time so could be town but could also be a wolf pleased with how the discussions are going.



    The vote for BW is reasonable, I think. I don't really understand the reasoning behind the either/or for me and Rogan. I feel like Rogan and I haven't really had much to say about each other this game (aside from sharing a time-zone) which if anything could point to both of us being wolves. I'll keep this in mind if/when I look over Rogan's posts, maybe we hade more interactions than I remember.



    Hard to be objective about a read about myself but I suppose a wolfy Snow could've had a decent case about me based on being an early vote for Jeen. Though considering Snow voted Jeen too and no one seemed very suspicious of me, it probably wouldn't be an easy sell so I can see a wolf skipping that and trying to look towny to me instead,



    I'll probably get back to this if/when I've read Rogan's posts.



    Maybe. But it feels like she's doing the latter a little later.



    There's not much to go on regarding Xi, but I'm also leaning town on her. Some more motivations would have been nice, but not having them is hardly a smoking gun.



    A lot of back and forth on gac, but as something of an expert on that myself, I can't really fault that.



    Nice to be included. Those are probably my strongest town leans as well and Ė assuming I'm not incorrect about all of them Ė confidently calling out likely townspeople as such doesn't seem very wolfy.



    I don't like this. Snow keeps coming back to Rogan if not as a suspect than at least as a person of interest but doesn't ISO him? Seems odd, though as someone who recently took up the noble art of ISO, I can sort of see not having the energy to do it. Still, I don't like this at all.



    Reasonable question and since I've felt like a hypotethically wolfy Snow has sort of been pushing a little for lynching Rogan, I like how she questioned a vote against him.



    More math. Again pushing for reads about Rogan (but see above for a suggestion that Snow's not a wolf working to lynch Rogan). I've already commented on her pushing for a read after gac pointed out her not pushing for reads much this game.

    Then her big defense post. The arguments themselves are decent (except maybe for the one about blade) but I still feel like being this defensive seems a bit wolfy, especially when not actually a likely lynch.



    More about Rogan. Probably fair to say that it's unlikely for both Rogan and Snow to be wolves (or is she doing a very ambitious job of distancing herself in case he flips? Unlikely but not impossible, I think).
    After reading BatCatHats post, I see more of the behaviour I mentioned: He is unwilling to comitt.
    He is throwing shade for Snow in most of his replies, but keeping them low. Some highlights?
    "If I'm acting differently it's for fun, not because I'm a wolf". Though that might be overthinking things again.
    This matches most of my own thoughts at the time so could be town but could also be a wolf pleased with how the discussions are going.
    Thats the same kind of behaviour I already called him out about. Now, I have to admitt, he posted a long time before my wall, but I didn't see it.

    Minor Points for seeing the same thing about Snow and her obsession with me. But if this were a w/w pair, he would know about her plan, so this won't give him town points in my mind.
    Last edited by Rogan; 2021-09-14 at 07:15 PM. Reason: Crossing out vote
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions

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