A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #241
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    Supagoof's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    *yawn*

    Just posting that I am here today. Feeling like switching my point, just need to figure out a few things during my workday. Like, for example, what do Mr Popo funbucks buy? Just curious, I don't know what I did there either. Other than (what Snowblaze called out) where I was pointing at inactives then pointed at Rogan who was/is active? Is that it - do I win the funbucks? (And despite which way this game goes, I absolutely enjoy that Mr. Popo is totally the Robin Williams reincarnation of the Genie.)

    AV - thank you for the in depth analysis of me. I feel loved, even though I am being called scum, but only slightly.
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    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  2. - Top - End - #242
    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Back. And less paranoid.

    gac3, your maths is wrong. The higher number should be number of town players, not total players alive, so LyLo/MyLo are significantly sooner than your numbers suggest.

    Rogan:


    I'm not really undermining my own point? If the inactives are town and we mislynch someone else today we're in a pretty terrible position. And... meh, you kind of have a point on "why lynch a wolf who's dying anyway" but I am not willing to stake the game on there being a wolf in the inactives.

    I'm not obsessed with you. It wasn't just bladescape's death, I was never really that confident on town!you in the first place and I thought your positioning around Jeen was wolfy after the flip. (Speaking of which, that's why I made the "one in you/Batcathat" comment; I thought you had similar positions that a wolf would be likely to take.)

    Since then I've been meaning to ISO you but haven't done so due to a combination of procrastination/IRL stuff/tiredness/the fact that I don't actually like doing ISOs. So I've been nagging myself in thread to do it.

    You're right that talking to you is a good idea. Let's start with Batcathat. I did in fact make an ISO of them shortly after SOD. And they're town. They're not pushing me, they're tinfoiling me. Which is both understandable and towny for them given the meta thing I pointed out earlier.

    Also, a few questions:
    - do you think there's a wolf in the inactives?
    - what's your read on Xihirli?

    I have an urgent deadline that just came up so it's likely I'm not going to be back before EOD.

    Oh yeah, and Supagoof, because I forgot how much I wolfread his posts yesterday and because I'm not enthused by his latest "hey, still here" post.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

  3. - Top - End - #243
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    Supagoof's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    @^ Just trying to balance RL work with game, and today I have a bunch of intermittent meetings, which means my posts won't be long drawn out hypothesis, though I am actively trying to be here today.

    Rogan - I appreciate your response. however, you did not grasp the entirety of the whole post. During the post, where I said I had wanted to hear more from you, I also stated I didn't read all of day 1. At that point in day 2, you only had one post. I've crossed out my point on you, as you've directly answered me. Still sus (though, to be fair, everyone is).

    I'd like to check in on BatCatHat for the similar reasons. I simply must know more about what you're doing. Also, I feel I may have been accidentally right day 1, at least I wasn't wrong by being on Jeen's bandwagon, although I didn't know that at the time. Saying there's probably a wolf there, simple math being they know they weren't voting each other so hop on.

    @lol, I post, walk away from my desk to a meeting, come back, and find this. @V
    Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-14 at 12:12 PM.
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    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  4. - Top - End - #244
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    And another one done. I really doubt I'll have the time and energy for more than one or maybe two more before EoD. Not sure how much they are helping me or anyone else, but it feels like good practice if nothing else.

    Spoiler: ISO on Rogan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    The idea is not bad, but it also brings some risks. You pointed some of them out (and I would be interested in your math for the Handmaidens, but this can wait until after the game) and gave your assessment about them. So, I will claim that I have no role involved and no major objections to your analysis. Minor negative points for the "Trust me" part of your argument. But it's propably too obvious for a wolf. I reserve the right to reasses my stance toward you if the princess or countesse gets ambushed tonight.

    Hard disagree here. Massclaiming would be a huge disadvantage! Since the Handmaidens are occupied protecting the Princess and Countesse, a mass claim would allow the wolves to snipe the more useful roles. Like the Handmaidens, which we need for the plan to work.
    Good start with lots of analysis for this early in the game. Advicing against massclaiming seems town but it might also be a wolf understanding that town won't go for it and gaining some town cred.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I think you are correct about the first part (King, Prince).
    You are however wrong about the second part (Baron). Snow even pointed this out in her plan. The baron can't connect anybody to this core. The princess can't be targeted after claiming. The Countess will be blocked by the handmaidens. They protect against the kill, but also prevent most other powers.
    If the wolves get the countess night 1, will you change your oppinion about Snow?

    Hard agree here. Xi is on my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game.
    Some mechanics. Some support for Xi but (I think?) only for the RPing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Your math is fine, which I realized some minutes after I made the post. At first, I had tried to take all roles into account, which made the calculation a bit more complex. Sometimes, you miss the forest since you see so many trees.

    Well, it's not RNG random. AV

    - is allways a good day 1 target
    - had one vote already

    Currently, there are 4 players I would not vote for.
    [Rogan, Snow, Mr Popo, Xi]
    And I didn't want to start a new wagon without a good reason. (Which I currently don't have). So I picked someone with one vote, who I would not mind getting eliminated. And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 ammuses me
    This is reasonable enough, but I could see a wolf trying to push a mislynch under the guise of "wouldn't it be funny?".

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Of course the reasons are thin. It's day 1 and, at the time of my vote, page 1. There simply is not much to go by, so I can take an option which I amuses me. It's not like I can't change my vote again, if someone pops up who is more suspicous.
    And, as you made sure to point out, there is no reason NOT to vote for AV at the moment.

    About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.
    Same as above. I would probably be more suspicious if it wasn't aimed at AV specifically.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Is this a counterclaim?

    Or just this joke?
    Wolf and town would both want to clarify this, so doesn't really say much, I think.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Thanks for the answer. And while I obviously CAN do the conversion myself, I certainly would not mind if you would include the CEST. Especialy if someone else would profit from this as well.
    Good suggestion, but not really indicative of alignment obviously.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I am slightly paranoid regarding you since I remember your performance in PJ. You are increadibly good at avoiding the lynch, even if you deserve it. And in our second game together, you managed to survive a day where you were known to be the serial killer. (To be fair, your contender for the lynch was a baddy as well, so this should not count).

    So I could see a world where you are a wolf, suggest a plan you know will fail, telegraph this possibilty AND get away with it. Those are things I propably won't have to worry about, I know. But I still have them in my mind and you might remember something about me: I still have to learn when to shut up!

    All in all, I think you are more likely to be town than wolf. But I respect your skills enough to think you could fake this. And I would like to know if I am the only one who thinks that way.
    I had (and still do) similar thoughts so they're not necessarily wolfy, whether or not Snow's town.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Snow had this in mind.
    The roles are not out of the game forever, so sooner or later, the bluff will be called and the wolves loose one teammember.
    Mostly about the mechanics of Snow's plan but if Rogan's wolfy, it might have been smart to leave it uncommented or use it against her. So some town points, I guess?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I would even say, it propably is not possible to claim Princess without using the power. Otherwise, it would be a tad bit unfair. Claiming Princess has a cost attached, not being a valid target for the Baron or the Handmaiden.
    I suppose opposing a rule interpretation that favors the Princess could be somewhat wolfy but I can buy that it's more out of a sense of fair play.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Thanks for the clarification. I might not like the rules as written, but I don't blame you.

    However, I will blame anybody using the option of claiming without bolding. If you want to have the protection of beeing a princess, you should pay the prize as well.
    Same as above.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Yes, Mr. Popo claimed Count. And I think his claim still stands, but he doesn't want the princess to revial herself. Or anybody claiming not Princess, which would reduce the number of people who could be the Princess.
    On the other hand, it is very much possible for nobody to be the Princess yet.
    Mostly summing up what's happning, I guess?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    You are THAT close to earning a vote from me. But I will let you off since you seem to be joking and I have you on my don't kill day 1 list.
    Not sure how serious this is intended, seems like an overreaction if serious but I could see it being jokey (and even if serious, not sure it's very wolfy).

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Okay, now I have to ask... You push for an AV lynch quite hard for... No good reason at all? Or do you know something we don't?
    I mean, when I voted AV, you did not like my reasons. And I absolutely admit, my reasons are not terribly good. But I don't think you gave ANY reason at all. Well, except the name, but that's a very very weak reason.

    If you didn't claim to be married to our beloved Countess, I would vote for you now.
    You started wanting a mass claim, quickly changed your mind on this and now work against Snows Plan.
    This plan is basically forced to happen now. We can not afford to loose the Countess, otherwise the Princess can not Claim or she is basically guaranteed to die the next night. With the Countess in the open, the Princess has nothing to loose by claiming, unless she believes the plan will fail. But for the Plan to fail, we would need to be either increadible unlucky, or there is a traitor ammong Snow and you, Mr. Popo.
    Same as with gac, this seems like a pretty normal reaction to Popo's playstyle.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    So, I don't think there are good reasons to vote for AV. No good reasons not to vote her either. (which is why my vote remains here, for the moment. I want to hear more from AV).
    Seems reasonable enough, I guess. I usually don't move around my early vote until I have a good reason to either. Could be a wolf hoping the wagon will gain some momentum without having to really commit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    We, as in, everyone in this room.

    I can say for sure that the only persons who could in absolute confidence say that somebody is loyal to the Queen is someone who is loyal to the queen as well. And you seem to be awfully sure about some allignments.

    I know the Princess can't be illoyal to herself, so I can speak, with absolut confidence: The Princess does not know wheter or not AV illoyal. I don't need any secret meetings (which by the rules only happen at night) to know this.

    I see you beeing very sure about something nobody loyal could know. Remember, even while everybody knows some secret nobody else knows (the role) the number of people that know things about OTHER players is very limited at the first day. This makes me suspicous of you and you only give me one reason not to vote for your arrest: You claim to be in leage with the Countess, and we can not afford to loose her.

    If Libro comes back to claim Countess, I will vote you!

    Now, about AV.. Well, if she minds my banter, I would like her to come forward and speak for herself. It remains a fact that I never played in a game with her where she lived at day 2. (Okay, she came back in PJ and was very important for the town victory, but still, she was dead day 2. I made sure about this. And was town as well. So, sorry AV!) It would still be funny for me if this curse would remain true.

    Now, I never played with you, Popo. Never read a game where you played, either. So it might be normal for you to throw around absolut statements without any mechanical backup. If someone else does know you and your playstyle, I would be glad if they could share their experience with me.
    This too feels like a reasonable reaction to Popo's D1 antics.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    From my side:
    Mr Popo - you are save unless you get counterclaimed.
    Snowblaze - you are save unless your plan results in a spectacular backfire.
    Xi - You are save as long as you write nice letters and there is no realy good reason to vote you.
    Rogan - I don't see my death as an advantage for town. After all, I can prommise you one thing: I won't kill a seer this game!
    BatCatHat - I like those posts for now. Plus, beeing in a similar TimeZone, so we might spend some time being active together.
    Feels like a lot of the arguments aren't very relevant (Xi's letters, my time zone) but it could be padding for fun (and honestly not having many reads) rather than padding to hide not contributing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    For most of us, there are 12 players to worry about. (No need to worry about the Princess, as soon as she claims; no need to worry about yourself)
    4 missed lynches could be game over. So 12-3 means 9 persons you need to correctly identify as town.


    So, I think we are on the same page here. But I am a bit sceptical about one thing:
    You need to be right about those 9 Persons. If there is only one traitor and you are not willing to reevaluate? You have lost before the game is over. Thats a bit scary, in my oppinion.
    Therefore, I would like to avoid locking somebody as town this early. But as long as you are willing to change your mind when new evidence arrives, I'm fine with your current list.

    About your Role and Snows Plan... I might have an idea what you mean, but I might be wrong. And I will try to keep my mouth shut about this idea, unless someone else would realy like to talk about it.

    And I totaly agree, it's much better to be right for the wrong reasons, than to be wrong for whatever the reasons may be. But the best thing seems to be getting the right answer for the right reasons.

    But yeah, despite those differences in style, I am looking forward to solving this mystery on your side.

    But now, I think I will have to go to bed. 1:45AM... Good day / night / whatever the time of the day it might be where you live. This is for everybody. Except the traitors. They won't have a good night, now that their leader, the evil queen was arrested.
    Starts understanding Popo better, which I think a lot of us who haven't played with him before started doing at this point, so that checks out. Though most of the discussion seem rather vague, which I don't like.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Well, my idea would be: Mr Popo didn't know if the countess was an active role or not.
    In order to still allow a somewhat strong town core, he faked the claim. This way, he would get a position of trust and protection.
    But this would be extremely dangerous if the princess revealed herself, thinking herself protected. So, why would Mr Popo do something like that? Well, he might be the only town person to know the princess wouldn't reveal herself.

    I guess, Mr Popo is the princess. Many other things would make sense as well.

    But I don't trust words at this point, unless those words are spoken by the narrator.
    So.... Mr Popo are you the princess? Please bold your answer, for narrator confirmation.
    Could be a wolf trying to lure out the Princess, could be town trying to find answers. Hard to tell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Mr Popos post crossed mine. I think it's legit. I still want proof.

    This might not be the best move from a mechanical standpoint. But I think I have made my stance clear regarding the princess and soft claims.

    There is also another (small) danger. If there is no town Prince and the Princess is not in the game yet, soft claiming Princesss could go unnoticed.
    There are ways to check this, plus it's very unlikely. But I like to be paranoid about strange edge cases...

    (Currently writing from mobile, so please be patient... it might take longer than I like)
    Consistent with what he said earlier about claiming Princess, at least.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Another cross post. I still want a bolded princess claim.

    I think a Prist would have made a terrible move by claiming countess. Especially if it was posted AFTER Snow proposed her plan. The princess would feel fine about claiming and there would be nobody to protect her.

    There are other assumptions I don't like. The votes for libro came before the soft counter claim. I get flashbacks for PJ. It's like me, as vig shooting AV, the Seer night 1. Sure, it didn't look good for the me on first glance. But I had no way to know I would kill the Seer. (Okay, I could have trusted the Manson claim and ask him in private if I should shoot AV, but I didn't want to claim right away)
    Xi, the one player pushing a vig lynch, was a wolf.

    I continue to get bad impressions from you, Mr Popo. Some of them might be paranoia. But there are so many things speaking against you, I can not, in good faith, ignore them. Sorry.
    I think I like this analysis for the most part.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I would go for self preservation. The disadvantage is, of course, you might die anyway at the next day. But on the bright side, you might manage to kill a wolf.

    Still, I disagree with AV. Going for someone with 0 posts is not useful unless this vote is supposed to force a lurker to post. But lurking does not seem to fit for Emmy.

    We should go for someone more active so we actually have posts to analyze in light of the flip.
    I mostly agree about voting inactives and considering how useful the inactives were for the wolves last game, I'm leaning towards this being a little towny? Though I suppose he might be specifically trying to protect his wolf buddy Emmy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I don't see a demand for a claim? Only for activity and activity is good for town.
    But I agree in principle. Voting inactives is not the way to go, unless you are very sure the active players are all town.

    But the better move of course is going for somebody suspicious.

    Currently unwilling to lynch:
    Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BCH.
    They actively gave me reasons to want them alive.

    Not happy about a lynch for Emmy or Rouge.
    They are inactive and therefore, a lynch would not reveal a lot.

    AV starts to get more active, which I see as a win. We disagree about some things (and it still would be funny to see the curse in action) but I think there are better targets right now.

    Jeen... I will have to look at his posts in more detail. But I would like to avoid doing so from mobile.

    I would like to hear more from blades, but I won't put pressure there right now. He said he was busy IRL, which is something I can accept at the moment.
    Mostly talking about who isn't wolfy rather than who might be. Not sure that means anything at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    One of my problems with Mr Popo are absolute statements like that. But it might be a difference in play style.

    I don't know what I should make of him and if anything he does or suggests is really something he thinks best for town, a ruse to hide his true intentions and lure the traitors into a false sense of security, or a wolf playing too much like a wolf in order to deceive everybody.
    I think he is willing to take a risk, no matter the alignment.

    And now I am sitting here, wondering if I should trust my gut, trust some more experienced players (hoping they are not all allies) or do something different altogether.

    I think in some ways, Mr Popo is similar to AV. Both very fond of the manipulation part of the game. I tend to go against AV for the same reasons. I should leave my tunnel and read everything again, trying not to let my prejudice cloud my views.

    Unwilling to vote today:
    Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BatCatHat, Emmy, Rouge.
    AV (it would still be funny, but that's not sufficient reason for a vote anymore)

    Mr Popo is in a weird spot. On the one hand, many things would make sense as a Town player, on the other hand, just as many things rubb me the wrong way.

    I think there are arguments for a vote for Mr Popo, gac, book and Jeen.

    I am going to cross out my votes and check again which of those targets will, in my opinion, yield the best results.
    Mostly more of the same. Having a long list of people not to vote for seems like it might be a bad idea for a wolf, in case they want to jump on some convinent wagon later. So a little towny, I guess?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I disagree about your interpretation of Jeens mech / clarification posts being bad for town. Especially the post where he made sure that the Princess can claim without using her power. It is important for everyone in the game to be on the same page regarding the actual rules. They are the law, so to speak. And if there is confusion about the law, you absolutely should ask an authoritie. The narrator in this case.

    I disagree about the part of
    "Odd, interesting, strange, weird" are all terms that wolves use instead of taking a stand as to whether someone is wolfy or villagery.

    I think it's pretty normal to be insecure about day 1 reads and asking for a second opinion. In fact, this seems more natural than your behavior, but I think those are different approaches to the game.
    Same thing, but to a lesser degree, about preparing posts.

    But now, there is the real problem with Jeen.
    He was willing to arrest someone who made a plan that could be risky in order to check if this plan was good. That's stupid.
    It would give the traitors time to plan and change the basic premise of the plan. It would add additional complications to the plan, like the risk of accidentally losing personal important to the plan. You want to test a plan in a way that is not useful for testing the validy of the plan while simultaneously weakening the plan.

    I don't blame anyone being confused about things that are meant to be confusing. But being confused is not a positive thing either.

    So I can agree with this plan. Vote Jeen now and get a flip. Best case, we get a wolf. Worst case, we will still have some vote movement to analyze day 2.

    I am glad you are going to explain your town reads some more. I only skimmed them by now, I think the post will be big enough already.
    I promise I will read them properly and make my mind up about them by the time I actually move to my computer.
    Most seems to be a clash of play styles. Feels kinda genuine. Voted Jeen for what I think were pretty solid reasons.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Is there anything anybody could do to reduce this confusion?

    And do you think you will change your vote before EoD? Voting the inactive is not very helpful, since it wouldn't give us much information, regardless of the flip.
    I still mostly agree about the inactives but it could still also be protecting inactive wolf buddies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I hope there won't be no surprise reveals. I have to sleep soon, so I won't be able to react.
    I would like to ask you to state your opinion about the wagons before the day ends. It might not change things, but I would like to hear it anyway.
    The first part could be a wolf preemptively excusing not reacting to something that might stop a mislynch. But that seems a little unnecessary (and this post was around 3 am in Rogan's time so going to bed it quite reasonble )

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    The way you talk makes me even more comfortable sitting on you. This death-accepting behavior reminds me of Snow from PJ. Only she started doing so earlier.
    I kinda like this part. It's not as if Rogan really needs to motivate staying on Jeen at this point so it feels honest.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    While there was no full review for myself, someone mentioned he (or she?) Thought I would change my stances too often. This feels like an unfair judgment.

    I changed my stance on one player, namely Mr Popo. But this changes always were the result of new info.
    At first, he claimed a unique, unchanging Town only role. I won't vote there.
    His behavior is alien for me. He rings multiple alarm bells for me. There is a soft counter claim. Still, nothing definite, so he stays in the group of people I am not going to lynch.
    Next thing a counter claim. Popo lost the reason I believe him to be town. That's the last drop in an ocean of red flags. I vote him.
    I think this is pretty fair from what I've read. Rogan seems to go quite a bit back and forth on Popo in particular but that's pretty understandable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    List of players I am not willing to vote for today:
    Snow - My paranoia of early day 1 was unnecessary. Her plan might not be optimal, but she had good intentions. She remains a strong town read. She is also the princess
    Library - Uncontested Countess claim.
    Mr Popo - I think I understand his motivation for the day 1 behavior better now. Some of the red flags I still had about him got dropped by this. He is a very active player as well and that's quite valuable for town. He is also the princess. And her father, but this is getting strange....
    AV - Actually doing things instead of talking about doing something. Active in general. Very observant in some regards (I wouldn't have noticed Emmy was active without getting here, for example) Survived the night, so killing her would not be funny anymore. She is also the princess Doesn't want to kill me
    Jeen, Blades - They are guaranteed to be town. They are also out of the match.

    List of players I tend to trust, but could convinced to vote if there are good arguments:
    Xi - She has to take a step back, since I won't use her RP/ letters as an argument for keeping her. But her play seems fine and somehow more like Crazy (where she was town) than PJ (where she was the first wolf to die).
    BatCatHat - I don't remember a single bad thing about him. Maybe he could be a bit more active. There are not many concrete good things about him as far as I can remember right now, but I am tired already, which definitely plays a role here. I might try an ISO when I am awake again.
    Rogan - He is not the princess. This is evil. I think, blades could have been partly to discredit me. He wants to reread me and promptly dies. In general, I am willing to die if it's necessary for the team. Especially if I know I made a big mistake. I might have made a mistake about the handling of the Princess claims, but that's not a big mistake, so you are better off hunting real wolves. At least, I didn't shoot the Seer this time
    Seems consistent with what he's said earlier, aside from maybe trusting Snow more. Speaking out (more or less) in favor of her plan after it's been fairly discredited feels oddly town to me. Could be a wolf still hoping to use it against town, but I don't think so.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I think this community is much more easy going than Mr Popo.
    In other news, I think the ocean is wetter than the desert.

    I won't comment on his big post in detail. Most of it seems fine, though I disagree about liking gac's #233 (as I said before, it feels forced to me) and (obviously) the vote for me. But it's a reasonable theory, if trying out ISOs has shown anything it's how much I tend to argue against myself. I'd point out that I've basically acted the same way in all games, whether town or not, but since being unsure isn't exactly hard to fake (and indeed, I've occasionally played up my inexperience when scum) I could see how that's not really helping me.

    So yeah, I don't really have any good defense. His arguments are sound, it's just the conclusion that's wrong.


    A lot of mixed feelings in this one too, but there were a few things I really liked so I think I ended up leaning town on Rogan.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    (Speaking of which, that's why I made the "one in you/Batcathat" comment; I thought you had similar positions that a wolf would be likely to take.)
    Wait, so are you saying that you think specifically one of us is a wolf or that at least one of us is a wolf? Because it sounds like the former but the argument seems to support the latter.

  5. - Top - End - #245
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    I shouldn't post when rushed. At the time I also thought "...but it's unlikely two wolves had that similar position". Also I don't believe in that read any more, I stopped at about the point I realised you were town.

    - - - Updated - - -

    gac3, why are you still voting Rogan despite now having reached a townread on him?
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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    I claim to be the prince, who targeted themself to become a guard.
    Even though I am a necromancer, I am not a member of the Coven. In fact, my entire coven disbanded, so my alignment changed to Chaotic Good.

    Looking for a game of Werewolf/Mafia? Unavenger's Upick 2 is currently recruiting.
    Last Updated: September 27th, 2021 @1:49 PM

  7. - Top - End - #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmmyNecromancer View Post
    I claim to be the prince, who targeted themself to become a guard.
    Emmy! Hi!

    I'm afraid you're currently lead wagon, but it would be great if you could catch up and give us some thoughts on who the wolves are before EOD.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

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  8. - Top - End - #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I shouldn't post when rushed. At the time I also thought "...but it's unlikely two wolves had that similar position". Also I don't believe in that read any more, I stopped at about the point I realised you were town.
    That's nice. Meanwhile, I think a switch flipped in my brain and I went from always townreading you to distrusting everything you say. Like planting the idea that if Rogan or I flip town, the other should get lynched (and backing off it when questioned). I do like you reading me as town, but that paranoid part of my brain is saying "If I was a wolf, wouldn't Batcathat be the kind of unexperienced player that'd be nice to have in the endgame?".

    Screw it, if my stupid brain can't make up its mind, I might as well trust my stupid gut. Too many tiny things about Snowblaze rub me the wrong way.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmmyNecromancer View Post
    I claim to be the prince, who targeted themself to become a guard.
    Good to see you at last. Claiming unprompted does seem to be part of your MO, so that makes sense. Though are you saying that you were active N1 but only posted now? That does seem a bit odd.
    Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-14 at 12:22 PM.

  9. - Top - End - #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    ...
    Snow - ... She is also the princess
    Library (sic) - Uncontested Countess claim.
    ...
    Mr Popo - ... He is also the princess. And her father, but this is getting strange....
    AV - ... Survived the night, so killing her would not be funny anymore. She is also the princess
    ...
    Rogan - He is not the princess. This is evil.
    Maybe we should test these claims/ISOs for Snowblaze, Libro, Mr Popo, and AvatarVecna just in case.
    Even though I am a necromancer, I am not a member of the Coven. In fact, my entire coven disbanded, so my alignment changed to Chaotic Good.

    Looking for a game of Werewolf/Mafia? Unavenger's Upick 2 is currently recruiting.
    Last Updated: September 27th, 2021 @1:49 PM

  10. - Top - End - #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    - - - Updated - - -

    Rogan (2): gac3, Supagoof
    EmmyNecromancer (4): AvatarVecna, Mr Popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
    gac3 (1): Libro
    Posted but didn't vote (2): Batcathat, Rogan
    No posts today (2): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist

    - - - Updated - - -

    General question: if there's a wolf in my towncore, who is it?

    For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo.

    Going to go now. Will probably be back sometime before EOD.
    If you don't know who it is Snowblaze, that's because it's likely YOOOOUUUUU! lol

    It would appear as I was writing up my post on BatCatHat, that BCH was also writing up a very, very long ISO post. Crossed you off BCH.

    RogueAlchemist - only because I'm starting to think my pointing of fingers is getting some pretty hefty responses.
    Spoiler
    Show
    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  11. - Top - End - #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Rogan:

    I'm not really undermining my own point? If the inactives are town and we mislynch someone else today we're in a pretty terrible position. And... meh, you kind of have a point on "why lynch a wolf who's dying anyway" but I am not willing to stake the game on there being a wolf in the inactives.

    I'm not obsessed with you. It wasn't just bladescape's death, I was never really that confident on town!you in the first place and I thought your positioning around Jeen was wolfy after the flip. (Speaking of which, that's why I made the "one in you/Batcathat" comment; I thought you had similar positions that a wolf would be likely to take.)

    Since then I've been meaning to ISO you but haven't done so due to a combination of procrastination/IRL stuff/tiredness/the fact that I don't actually like doing ISOs. So I've been nagging myself in thread to do it.

    You're right that talking to you is a good idea. Let's start with Batcathat. I did in fact make an ISO of them shortly after SOD. And they're town. They're not pushing me, they're tinfoiling me. Which is both understandable and towny for them given the meta thing I pointed out earlier.

    Also, a few questions:
    - do you think there's a wolf in the inactives?
    - what's your read on Xihirli?

    I have an urgent deadline that just came up so it's likely I'm not going to be back before EOD.

    Oh yeah, and Supagoof, because I forgot how much I wolfread his posts yesterday and because I'm not enthused by his latest "hey, still here" post.
    The fact that you suggested there would be a wolf in the inactives but did not include this option in your math seems strange. You were "willing to bet there's a wolf in the inactives rn. " after all.
    We currently have 12 players, 2 of them are inactive and doomed to die.
    Lets assume one inactive wolf, a misslynch and a dead townie in the night.
    players town (3 wolf) wolf (3 wolf) town (4 wolf) wolf (4 wolf)
    12 9 3 8 4
    8 6 2 5 3
    6 4 2 3 3
    4 2 2 1 3

    Thats a tie at day 4, in case of 4 wolves.
    A tie day 5 in case of 3 wolves.

    So at least one more day than you suggested. There is also one thing about ties: They favor town. Assuming the princess is not a night kill, she can't die to a tie. Assuming Popo remains the king, he can't die to a tie with a wolf.

    I would be glad if you could give some example of what you mean with my positioning about Jeen.
    I did not jump the wagon right from the beginning, since I was comfortable with my current vote. Untill I wasn't anymore and had to look somewhere else. And Jeen was a good target. I was wrong, but my reason to go there? They were not.

    Your explanation about my ISO is something I can empathize with. When I do ISOs, I will usually try to pick someone in the middle ground of activity. Someone posting too much takes a lot of energy to read. (Thats especially bad if you are low on time or energy for RL reasons) Someone posting hardly anything? It won't yield info, so why would you bother? I was annoyed about your repeted telling "I'm going to do this" without following up with action. Especially since you were active otherwise. But being annoyed about something is not a good reason for a vote, unless maybe early day 1. We are late day 2. There are much better things to go by.

    I will take a look at your ISO. Thanks for leading me there. Your conclusion is noted, but I will go and take a look for myself.
    I also appreciate you are upfront about having not much time right now. RL is more important than the game.


    Now, your questions:

    If there are 4 wolves, there will be at least one in the inactives. Thats something I am willing to bet about. Of those people playing, there are not enough players that raise serious suspicion OR they are unlikely to be a team.
    If there are 3 wolves, they could all be active. I doubt it will be two, or else the last wolf would propably ask Cao to surrender. I would do so if I would find me allone versus the whole town.

    Xi started in my List of Players I was unwilling to vote for on day 1. The reason was weak: She did not raise any red flags and her posts are very entertaining. Since having fun is important for me, this was enough for me at that monent.
    Right now, I read her as town, but I didn't put much attention in a solving way there. I continue to like her Letters and style, but I didn't try to pick them appart for hidden meanings. It did not seem necessary to me, since she is counted as a villager by the majority. I think I said so before, at least I made a mental note about it: Xi feels more like Crazy Idea Xi than PJ Xi.

    But your question definitly made me realize I don't know much about her. Right now she is in the comfortable situation of being present and talking without saying much or getting any real attention.


    About your vote: It could be a compromise. I think Supagoof is not a good target, since he is quiet. But he is a much better target than anybody compleatly inactive. They will resolve themselves. He won't.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions

  12. - Top - End - #252
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    *sigh* guess we'll just have to find wolves before LyLo so me being the Designated Final Mislynch doesn't come into play.

    The point of the maths was to consider the worst-case scenario.

    I think I'm starting to lean town on you now, Rogan. Also remember liking some earlier gac3 posts, remind me to look at that tomorrow assuming I'm still alive.

    Supagoof, is there some kind of reference I'm missing with "it's probably you"?

    Libro
    Batcathat/Mr Popo/AV
    Xihirli
    Rogan/gac3
    Emmy/rogue/BW
    Supagoof

    Is roughly where I am.
    I have returned.

    Werewolf games won: 8
    Werewolf games lost: 5
    Games as town: 8
    Games as neutral: 2
    Games as wolf: 3
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 6

    I have no clue what Iím doing, but you still shouldn't trust me.

    Extended Signature

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Supagoof, is there some kind of reference I'm missing with "it's probably you"?
    Common memE/quote - "If you don't know who the ____ one in the group is, then it's probably you."

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Libro
    Batcathat/Mr Popo/AV
    Xihirli
    Rogan/gac3
    Emmy/rogue/BW
    Supagoof

    Is roughly where I am.
    In that order? Cause it's not me, so cross me off your list.
    Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-14 at 01:11 PM.
    Spoiler
    Show
    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  14. - Top - End - #254
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Someone else giggled along and told us of the time in fourth grade when she had chased another girl around a classroom trying to hit her with a pointer. No particular reason. Unfortunately for her, the principal walked in just then. She came home crying from being paddled and lied to her mother. She said the principle had been cruel to her. After winning over her parents, the principal lo and behold, showed up on her doorstep to explain the situation.
    When it was my turn, they looked at me with red, expectant eyes.


    Emmy's back! Great!

    Well, I could be persuaded off of the "kill the silent" wagon as now Emmy is not silent. Supagoof's RL stuff could very well be true but that doesn't make him not a wolf.
    Though I do also feel weird about apparently getting a Night Action from Emmy but no chat until just now. Words speak louder than actions, as they say.
    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Zar Peter View Post
    Supagoof took the most blows and incidentally took exactly the same damage Xihirli inflicted.
    Quote Originally Posted by Silent_Interim View Post
    Xihirli: Being a better target since 2015.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Xihirli, bastion of murder and betrayal.
    Quote Originally Posted by BasketOfPuppies View Post
    Wow I missed a lot today. So, kill Xihirli?
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Nobody else is gonna be right behind me, right now. Only Xihirli.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If Xi and I agree some more, I will start to doubt my own alignment!
    Quote Originally Posted by flat_footed View Post
    I still prefer to see you as the dagger hanging over us all, Xi.

  15. - Top - End - #255
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    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    @^ Just trying to balance RL work with game, and today I have a bunch of intermittent meetings, which means my posts won't be long drawn out hypothesis, though I am actively trying to be here today.

    Rogan - I appreciate your response. however, you did not grasp the entirety of the whole post. During the post, where I said I had wanted to hear more from you, I also stated I didn't read all of day 1. At that point in day 2, you only had one post. I've crossed out my point on you, as you've directly answered me. Still sus (though, to be fair, everyone is).

    I'd like to check in on BatCatHat for the similar reasons. I simply must know more about what you're doing. Also, I feel I may have been accidentally right day 1, at least I wasn't wrong by being on Jeen's bandwagon, although I didn't know that at the time. Saying there's probably a wolf there, simple math being they know they weren't voting each other so hop on.

    @lol, I post, walk away from my desk to a meeting, come back, and find this. @V
    RL is important. Thats an explanation for the few posts. An easy one, but I stand by my point. I will not hold this stuff against you.

    Your reply about my post makes a lot of sense. I wasn't very active at start of day 2 since I was at work most of the time. I won't bother to check if it realy was only one post or not. I guess you got a bit unlucky by being one of multiple people doing the same thing. Which might be the reason you were going for me in the first place? Not much info yet, so following the general sentiment?

    I hope you will read day 1 propper and give your reads about it when you are done. Or, even better yet: Give me a short list of players you DO trust while you have limited info.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    And another one done. I really doubt I'll have the time and energy for more than one or maybe two more before EoD. Not sure how much they are helping me or anyone else, but it feels like good practice if nothing else.

    <ISO on Rogan>

    A lot of mixed feelings in this one too, but there were a few things I really liked so I think I ended up leaning town on Rogan.

    <Snows One in Rogan/BatCatHat comment>

    Wait, so are you saying that you think specifically one of us is a wolf or that at least one of us is a wolf? Because it sounds like the former but the argument seems to support the latter.
    I saw your ISO and skimmed it. Glad you actually did it and especially glad for the conclusion. Not sure about every point you made, I will read it with more attention when I have adressed the other Posts made in the meantime.

    The question is another thing I am happy about. It is a good question and the answer will help me reading snow.
    (Somehow I didn't include her answer in my quotes, but I don't feel like bothering to change this. I will reply without it.

    Since Snow isn't saying one of us has to be a wolf, I have one (egoistical) reason less to suspect BCH right now. This reason didn't factor into my conscious decisionmaking, but it could have influenced me anyway, I'm not sure...
    I can't clear you right now, but I will read your day 1 or the summary of snow again and weight it against my feelings about your early day 2.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmmyNecromancer View Post
    I claim to be the prince, who targeted themself to become a guard.
    It's both nice to see you online and bad at the same time. Since you are active, we can talk to you and learn things. This would be impossible if we lynched you or you auto died for your inactivity. But on the other hand, we can't rely on your auto death to avoid wasting a vote.

    Can you give us some explanation for your behaviour? I know talking at night is usualy bad, so I avoided it myself this time. But if I had missed day 1 for some reason and only managed to get online night 1, I would at least check into the thread to let everyone know I am still interested in playing the game.

    I am going to trust your claim, since this is your usual style. I think, a wolf would not have used the Prince power in this way, unless the other inactive card was something realy good. The wolves know which cards they might get, after all.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    That's nice. Meanwhile, I think a switch flipped in my brain and I went from always townreading you to distrusting everything you say. Like planting the idea that if Rogan or I flip town, the other should get lynched (and backing off it when questioned). I do like you reading me as town, but that paranoid part of my brain is saying "If I was a wolf, wouldn't Batcathat be the kind of unexperienced player that'd be nice to have in the endgame?".

    Screw it, if my stupid brain can't make up its mind, I might as well trust my stupid gut. Too many tiny things about Snowblaze rub me the wrong way.



    Good to see you at last. Claiming unprompted does seem to be part of your MO, so that makes sense. Though are you saying that you were active N1 but only posted now? That does seem a bit odd.
    Running out of time before I have to eat, so real quick:
    I like it you are reacting to my critique and actually commit to voting. It would be even better if it happend before I prompted this, but I don't think you can controll the timeline, do you?
    I intend to come back here later.

    The part about Emmy is literary the same as my own oppinon. In fact, I wonder if I should edit my post to delete this part, but no. It's not bad to agree about something when you are right.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions

  16. - Top - End - #256
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    Sorry for the extensive delays in my participation.

    Spoiler: super oog stuff.
    Show
    OOG stuff that super required my attention. I got both kiddos all night, wife is seeing a doctor. I also did the dumb thing which was subbing into something before this game started, so... everything you have seen so far is with my attention completely divided.


    I need a current vote count so I will gather it myself.

    Basically, the time for nominating suspects is over and it is now time to consolidate.

    Both of my top suspects have already claimed Not Princess and so therefore I encourage them to both be voted if you concur with that conclusion, and defend them if you believe they are town.

  17. - Top - End - #257
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Did anybody guess what Supagoof's scumslip was or do we have to play 20 questions to get Popo to explain his suspicion?

    Still waking up. I like Emmy's claim a bit better than pope's even if Emmy's night action perplexes me. Will sit down for ISOs and stuff when I can.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Wait no scratch that, Emmy claim is bad too. Argh
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-14 at 02:28 PM.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Running out of time before I have to eat, so real quick:
    I like it you are reacting to my critique and actually commit to voting. It would be even better if it happend before I prompted this, but I don't think you can controll the timeline, do you?
    I intend to come back here later.
    Yeah, that's fair. I did go into your ISO hoping it'd lead to a vote against either you or Snow (and was leaning towards you, to be honest) but I can't say your argument didn't help motivate me to finally get a vote off. I'm not super confident about either of you (I suppose I sort of subconsciously decided that one of you probably is a wolf, if both of you are that's some good distancing) but it felt like your posts had a few more town leaning things and fewer red flags so I'm okay trusting you at the moment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    The part about Emmy is literary the same as my own oppinon. In fact, I wonder if I should edit my post to delete this part, but no. It's not bad to agree about something when you are right.
    Good to know. I don't really consider Emmy's inactivity in itself to be particulary wolfy, whether before or after her belated entrence, since she hasn't really been very active in earlier games. But doing an night action and not even checking into the thread to give a comment, analysis, anything is rather troubling. I was vary about voting Emmy earlier but now I don't know.
    Last edited by Batcathat; 2021-09-14 at 02:38 PM.

  19. - Top - End - #259
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I shouldn't post when rushed. At the time I also thought "...but it's unlikely two wolves had that similar position". Also I don't believe in that read any more, I stopped at about the point I realised you were town.

    - - - Updated - - -

    gac3, why are you still voting Rogan despite now having reached a townread on him?
    Mainly because I as tired and hadn't decided who I did want to vote for so I left that for morning. Now that Emmy has shown up however, care to weigh in? With anything other than a last minute claim to try to save your skin I mean?

  20. - Top - End - #260
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Spoiler
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Emmy
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Book Wombat
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    emmy necromancer
    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Rogan
    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    RogueAlchemist
    Quote Originally Posted by Xihirli View Post
    EmmyNecromancer
    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    EmmyNecromancer
    Quote Originally Posted by Libro View Post
    gac3
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    BatCatHat
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Supagoof
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Snowblaze
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Emmy


    Emmy: (5) AvatarVecna, Mr. popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat, gac3
    Gac3: (1) Libro
    BatCatHat: (1) Rogan
    Supagoof: (1) Snowblaze
    Snowblaze: (1) BatCatHat
    Rogue_Alchemist (1) Supagoof
    Book Wombat: (0) unvote
    Rogan: (0) unvote, unvote

    The votes for Gac3 and Bat and Snowblaze aren't going anywhere today I feel.

    As for Supagoof, I endorse Supagoof as a counterwagon to Emmy, but with votes this scattered, I will not move my vote to him.

    Currently not voting:


    1. Rogue_Alchemist
    2. EmmyNecromancer


    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Rogan to start because Blade said we should look into Rogan and then Blade died. The rest of my review of day one to come.
    @gac3

    Remember to strike out this vote, please.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Did anybody guess what Supagoof's scumslip was or do we have to play 20 questions to get Popo to explain his suspicion?
    Bear with me, I have had a pretty terrible night.

    I need a little bit to actually do all the stuff I promised. This is going to take time.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-14 at 03:00 PM.

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    @gac3

    Remember to strike out this vote, please.
    Accomplished. I was just now scrolling through trying to find it.

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by EmmyNecromancer View Post
    I claim to be the prince, who targeted themself to become a guard.
    Quote Originally Posted by EmmyNecromancer View Post
    Maybe we should test these claims/ISOs for Snowblaze, Libro, Mr Popo, and AvatarVecna just in case.
    None of this is in any way villagery or solving behavior.

    No vote placement, no town reads, no firm beliefs, this is all just anti-spew and the wolf team knew she was going down today, thus, there's really no reason why anyone should get any townie credit for her flip.

    If a bus happened, it means absolutely nothing to anyone's alignment.

    Mainly myself, Vecna, and blades were able to spot the incriminating stuff last night, and he died, and I'm about to die, and that's a good trade for 1 inactive wolf.

    Therefore, we dunk Emmy and I will speak to you all from beyond the grave tomorrow.

    And it will absolutely be from me. Because nobody can fake that stuff.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    Accomplished. I was just now scrolling through trying to find it.
    Nice.

    Okay. I will not leave people hanging on the bigger stuff.

    No one took a crack at the Supagoof read except himself, and kudos to him for trying but way off.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    RogueAlchemist
    Miscounted.

    - - - Updated - - -

    tally fixed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I would appreciate if anyone has the desire to help me, break up my posts that keep getting combined together, so the individual posts do not merge, and can be easily linked.

    So the lede does not get buried between walls.

    Literally post "ten characters" after I post stuff. If you want.

    I'll be here for a few hours.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Spoiler: Update on libro
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Libro View Post
    gac3 feels off, enough to warrant my vote over the inactives.

    No other wolf-y reads atm
    Technical note that "off" is passive aggressive, but Libro is lock town due to Countess claim.

    Just being super thorough in the one in I dunno how many chance that the Countess was the missing role.

    It's basically only a wolf that can counterclaim me in that world, but the way he did it was pretty villagery.

    That severely overrides all of whatever this is. Plus, it's literally only possible in that world.

    I told you, I am being thorough and open notebook and honest. This tinfoil shouldn't enter your brain until you are literally forced to think it much later down the line if we miss, miss, and miss after hitting a wolf today.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-14 at 02:51 PM.

  23. - Top - End - #263
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Spoiler: Snowblaze ISO (UNFINISHED BUT DONT WANT FORUM TO SWALLOW IT)
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I'm about to do something very out of character: start a game with a mechanics wallpost. But I have a plan, and I think that plan will work.

    Step 1: The Countess claims their role publicly.

    Step 2: The Princess reveals themselves.

    Step 3: Tonight, all town Handmaidens should target the Countess. If the wolves try to kill the Princess the Countess should redirect the kill to themselves. Other town roles shouldn't target either. This should be repeated on future nights.

    "But what's so good about this plan?"

    It gives us two confirmed town who wolves can't nightkill in the short-term. That means town has people who can be trusted, and also means there are two less people who could be suspected.

    "But what if the Princess/Countess are unused roles?"

    That's why I asked for the Countess to claim first. If the Princess claims when the Countess isn't in the game, wolves can just kill them. But if the Countess claims and there's no Princess, we can still proceed with the plan, just with only the Countess protected.

    (The above means that the Princess shouldn't reveal until and unless we have a Countess claim.)

    "But what if wolves, knowing the Countess is an unused role, fakeclaim it?"

    If wolves want to trade being able to kill the Princess night one for one of them being outed as soon as the Prince(s) use their actions, then that's fine by me. A 1 for 1 trade is pro-town.

    "But what if there aren't any town Handmaidens on night one?"

    That is the largest problem with my plan. If that's the case, the Countess dies night one and the Princess night two. But I did the maths (assuming three wolves, two unused roles, and roles allocated randomly with no respect for alignment) and there's a 1/12 chance that will happen. That's a risk I'm prepared to take.

    ďBut what if youíre a wolf and know there are no town Handmaidens?Ē

    Iím not. Honestly. Trust me.

    "But the Baron can't set up QTs with our confirmed town."

    True. But the setup is designed so that most of the discussion will be taking place in public anyway, so the disadvantage is relatively minor compared to what town gains from the plan.



    So. If you think the plan shouldn't go ahead, please say so (and explain why) asap. Otherwise, the Countess can claim whenever they're ready. (I'm implying pretty strongly that I'm not currently the Countess, so I may as well just say it outright. I'm not the Countess. Please don't speculate about my role in thread.)

    And, you know, remember we need to hunt wolves as well. I'm going to try not to spend too much time debating the merits of this plan now I've made my case.

    In other news, my schedule is extremely unpredictable after the next three hours. Knowing me Iíll still be posting too much, though! Iím also probably going to end up writing some RP at some point.

    And in other other news, Batcathat - partly OMGUS, partly so we have wagons.
    The plan has been debated to death at this point. I don't wish to rehash the entire argument within this ISO, so I will say I could see Snow suggesting this plan regardless of alignment, and so I'm not counting it for or against her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Not sure I want to go quite as far as mass-claiming just yet. Thereís a lot of unknowns and a lot of info weíre giving the wolves. But thatís still step one of my plan accomplished... no, Iím a good guy. I should not be cackling evilly.

    Princess, reveal yourself whenever youíre ready.

    Also, like the song... I need to start thinking up my own!
    This kinda feels like "is what i just did wolfy lol oh well", which I'm not fond of. Speaking out against mass claiming and giving a solid reason for it balances that out, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Mmm... sure. Not talking about mechanics is something I can get behind.
    Town!Snowblaze put a lot of time and effort into coming up with the plan and even thinking of some counterarguments to the inevitable disagreements that would arise. And yet she's backed off awfully quickly on it once she got serious pushback from a few players. Granted, popo makes a persuasive argument, but it's still NAGL that she backed off that soon.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I mean, I'd say that claiming a role that's guaranteed to be town is pretty deserving of a townread, but ymmv.

    ...now how paranoid should I be about the fact you're townreading me?

    I've worked out what I'm doing for my RP and will get to work on putting together a scene. No song ideas yet, though!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ta-da, one short RP scene.


    The servant was not happy. Not that she showed that, of course; outwardly she was all smiles and curtsies and "yes sir, no ma'am". But she was not happy.

    She had a family, for heaven's sake. It was her sister's birthday in three days, and if this investigation wasn't done by then she'd miss it. And they hadn't even let her send a message to them to stop them worrying about her. Surely there were better ways to find a conspiracy?

    Besides, if the people asked too many questions they might discover her secret. And that wasn't going to happen unless it was on her own terms.
    This is good pushback against blade, feels confident. I like it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Slight nitpick, @Jeen: the Baron canít network with the confirmed town under my plan. The Princess can only be targeted by the nightkill once theyíve revealed and the Handmaidens prevent other actions from resolving on the Countess.

    Also, I just realised: with Caoimhin narrating we donít have a resident vote counter any more.

    Batcathat 2 (Supagoof, Snowblaze)
    Libro 2 (AvatarVecna, Xihirli)
    Snowblaze 1 (Batcathat)
    Mr Popo 1 (bladescape)
    Supagoof 1 (gac3)
    Rogan 1 (Book Wombat)
    AvatarVecna 1 (JeenLeen)
    Posted without voting: Mr Popo
    Yet to post: Libro, Rogan, rogue_alchemist, EmmyNecromancer
    I think having our little community has gotten very used to having a constant handle on how the vote is shifting, and while in one-offs it tends to be IIoA, I like Snowblaze more for realizing why it was absent and setting out to deal with that absence herself. Slight townie points, even as I'm kinda counting against other people for doing bare votecounts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Spoiler: Handmaiden maths
    Show

    My reasoning: we have 16 roles, of which 3 are wolves and two unused. So the probability of the first Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 5/16.

    Given this, there are 15 roles left of which 4 are unused, so the probability of the second Handmaiden being in the wolves/unused is 4/15.

    Multiplying this gives 1/12. Though now I think about it Iím really scared Iím going about it the wrong way. I hate probability sometimes.


    Can I get peopleís thoughts on Roganís post above? A lot of it is talking about me so I might be biased.

    Also, Rogan, how random is your AV vote?
    This math is correct is if we have 3 wolves. If we have 4 wolves, that's 4 Wolf / 2 Unused, so 6/16 chance the first handmaid isn't town, and 5/15 chance the second handmaid isn't town. That's 30/240, or 1/8. If there's 5 wolves, it becomes 7/16 x 6/15, or 42/240, or 7/40 (almost 1/5).

    I doubt there's 5 wolves, but given how some recent games have got for a three-wolf team in similarly-sized games (Xihirli's game of 12 with 3 wolves went disastrously for scumteam, grumble grumble grumble), I could easily see a 4-wolf team. I'm not necessarily saying Snowblaze is scum for pretending only 3-scum teams are a possibility, but I think it would be very strange for town!Snow not to consider the possibility and include that for the sake of completion.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    It's more a general thing, wrt the Rogan post. My gut thinks their treatment of me could be wolfy but I tend to second-guess my early reads a lot.

    Agreed with Rogan/BCH on "please keep game-shattering revelations to a reasonable hour". Although I think I'm an hour behind them, so EOD is 4am my time.

    I wouldn't say I can "break the game open" with my plan; I just think it's beneficial to town at (relatively) little risk.
    Wish-wash-wish-wash

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    To her unhappiness, the servant added confusion. She knew about the games nobles played for royal favour and the luxuries it brought. But this was altogether a different game. And one that could be far more dangerous.

    Was the person naming themselves a god of death part of the conspiracy, or did they simply enjoy courting controversy? Were their accusers trying to pervert justice, or trying in good faith to find the Queen's followers? Why would the man who had before been silent ask such peculiar questions?

    And, most of all, why did she have to be caught in the middle of this mess?

    (Hey, this is actually a pretty good outlet for general confusion and paranoia!)

    Also I see Rogan is paranoid about me. I suppose I should take it as a compliment. It makes sense, I guess. I'll think about it, but right now I need to do IRL stuff. See you all later/tomorrow.
    RP post. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Yes. That is what happened. I don't know whether the claim is real.

    Also: how do you forget a game started... when you already posted in it?

    Also also: I'm the Princess. Honestly. Definitely not lying.
    Slight townie points for playing princess games with us.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Well. I was really hoping that wouldnít happen.

    (What is it about people fakeclaiming specifically Libroís role? I mean, Iím assuming heís the real Countess since it makes no sense otherwise.)

    So, uh... how does fakeclaiming Countess make any shred of sense for Mr Popo as any alignment? Based on his posts so far I think heís crazy enough that there are worlds where he would do it as town. But...

    (*insert significant amounts of WIFOM that donít get me any closer to a conclusion here*)

    ...letís just say I would really appreciate an explanation.

    Will be afk for a few hours, but Iíll try and find some townreads when I get back.
    I still don't understand why Snowblaze didn't want a counterclaim to happen. Counterclaims are almost exclusively good for town cuz it means somebody has definitely gotten caught telling a big lie. Granted, I didn't vote the counterclaimed Popo cuz it seemed obvious to me that it wasn't meant to be serious, but Snow seemed to be taking it seriously.

    I can understand why it's causing an anyeurism though - Popo fakeclaiming as scum requires a scumplay that's either braindead or megamind, and fakeclaiming as town just looks like it's creating chaos. I see the reason for it though, and I'm glad Mr Popo isn't dead. For now, at least.

    Anyway, NAI on Snow for this post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Still here. Still confused and paranoid.

    I think I townread Mr Popo but thereís at least one part of me thatís screaming that itís a terrible idea and I shouldnít do it.

    Iíd be down to vote JeenLeen, theyíre probably the closest thing to a wolfread I have rn.

    Now I actually need to go.
    NAI, JeenLeen was a solid vote at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    General replies to AV, not quoting because I don't trust myself with quotes.

    That "secrets" line in my RP does look rather like I'm soft-claiming Princess, doesn't it? (Being Chaotic is actually fun, I should try it more often!)

    The Princess not being able to network isn't because of what you've said, it's because once they've revealed they can't be targeted by actions other than the nightkill. There are probably some variants of the plan that would work differently but it's not really relevant at this stage. I'm done with mechanics.

    On "I was hoping that wouldn't happen": I wasn't expecting town to fakeclaim confirmed town roles. Also I wanted a day one without counterclaims and that sort of drama for once. Which was stupid of me, really.

    Why am I the only one who doesn't get words about why I'm town?

    And on bladescape, a) he said he'd be casual this game and b) he was a wolf in the last three games so acting differently isn't really a fair reason to suspect him.
    I still think drama is good for winning games. Boring D1s don't catch scum. Slight scum points.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I already hardclaimed Princess. I'll do it again, if you like: I'm the Princess ;)
    Joke. NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    A few notes:

    I donít necessarily agree with every aspect of Mr Popoís cases, but I agree with his conclusions; I independently think Jeen/gac3/BW have all been wolfy to some extent.

    Iím not as confident on the townreads of bladescape or Xihirli as he is, I think both could fake their posts so far as wolves. Plus theyíre both always wolves, going by recent statistics.

    And itís Batcathat, not Batthecat. Speaking of whom, if you want an alternate wagon, why not start one yourself? (Just... ignore the unholy mess that is the grammar of that sentence.)

    Yeah. Itís probably not this easy - a rule I made for myself a while back was ďif you think youíve solved the game on day one, youíre wrongĒ. But I also think itís too early to be re-evaluating and tinfoiling, and thereís a pretty good chance Jeen is a wolf (I was just going to say the fact they havenít posted recently doesnít look great, then I remembered they said in recruitment theyíd be less active on weekends.)

    So Iím okay with the gamestate as a whole rn - this will probably be my last post before EOD so I wanted to make that clear.
    I think during the JeenLeen drama I read this and thought "this is saying to lynch Jeen but also arguing that maybe people should ease off". I was mentally considering Snowblaze for my follow-up after JeenLeen flipped scum...except JeenLeen flipped town, ruining my plans.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    RIP bladescape. It is possible for you to be town after all.

    Hmm. Iíll start by poking Book Wombat.

    I feel like thereís exactly one wolf in Rogan/Batcathat. Re-evaluating both of those is my first task for today.

    Willing to help with unpairings at some point but Iíll be busy IRL this morning so analysis will have to wait.
    This sounds like a Rogan/Batcathat unpairing but I haven't gotten that feel from reading the thread. Can you explain how you got to this conclusion?

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Batcathat

    - randomly voting me.

    - joking about killing AV.

    - townreading Xihirli. I like this, itís some good in-depth analysis. The paranoia at the end could be seen as hedging but BCH is paranoid in general so I donít think itís wolfy here.

    - fluff.

    - time zone stuff.

    - paranoia about me. I feel like thatís the sort of thing wolves would want to encourage... but, like I said earlier, Batcathat is paranoid in general. (I think theyíre more likely to be paranoid as town - though Iíve never actually played with town!BCH before.)

    - mechanics speculation. (Side-note: that quoted BW post is pinging me a lot.)

    - more mechanics.

    - yet more mechanics. Although Iíd like to note that itís mostly in response to other peopleís mechanics talk, offering clarification/reactions. Which is fine.

    - first to vote Jeen; obviously that doesnít earn as much towncred given the flip but I still think itís mildly towny as it was a valid point and one I agreed with.

    - reads list; nothing particularly controversial but thereís enough there to stop me invoking ďreads list without many readsĒ.

    - post 140 was my major point of suspicion. Mostly because of the suggestion of alternate wagons but lack of an attempt to actually create one.

    - lots of agreeing with me. Which is fine. Probably not trying to pocket me. They didnít respond to my asking them to start an alternate wagon.

    - starting day two with more paranoia.


    I actually feel pretty good about BCH coming out of this. Theyíre a townread, especially if skimming through recent games indicates Iím right about the paranoia.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Based on recent posts, Rogan/gac3 not w/w. One unpairing done!
    I'm surprised you're not already voting Rogan, given you seem sure BCH is town and that there's one scum between Rogan and BCH.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Aw. I was enjoying not being suspected.

    Meh... some of the points in gac3's post are fair, others not so much.

    - Caoimhin specified which roles would exist, but Princess/Countess could have been in the unused roles and not exist until swapped in by a Prince.

    - After "I can get behind talking about mechanics" the only mechanical posts I made were an explanation of my maths and correcting Jeen's statement about the Baron networking.

    - I'll admit I was... kind of slacking a bit yesterday. A combination of being consensus town and Mr Popo doing so much analysis I guess led me to sit back and let things unfold maybe more than I normally would.

    - I can't be bothered to self-ISO again to see how much I actually contributed but I'm pretty sure it's more than is suggested. I remember saying I found you/Jeen/Wombat wolfy and wasn't too confident in townreading bladescape/Xihirli.

    - I wouldn't say I've been too defensive - she says, partway through a wallpost defending herself. But there's a difference between responding to accusations and being defensive. I'm doing the former.


    Anyway, I'm on mobile and have shaky internet, but I should be back to ISO Rogan this afternoon.
    I'm happy enough with Snow's contributions - good or bad, more talking means more stuff to analyze. I don't know if Snow is somebody I wanna hang, but she's definitely giving me enough rope to do the deed if I need it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Okay, back.

    I townread Xihirli now.

    gac3 is... probably my biggest problem to figure out right now. My first thought when I saw their ISOs last night was "that's an awful lot of IIOA"; I still agree with AV's interpretation over Mr Popo's (though I should probably reread the latter's explanation, I only really skimmed it earlier. Though today's seemed a bit better. I think I need to see their thoughts on Rogan before I make a judgement on that.

    Going to go and do that Batcathat meta-dive I mentioned earlier, then I'll stop procrastinating and ISO Rogan.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Read through Mr Popo's gac3 townread. It seems to me like he's reading a bit too much into stuff gac3 isn't really saying. But it might be I'm just not crazy (in a good way) enough to get it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Okay, having skimmed through Afterlife: welcome to my town core, Batcathat.

    The other residents are Libro, Mr Popo, Xihirli and... to add AV or not to add AV, that is the question... yeah. Let's do it. AV can be town, for today at least.

    That leaves gac3/BW/Rogan/Emmy/Supagoof/rogue.

    Three wolves in there? Is that plausible?

    - - - Updated - - -

    gac3 isn't w/w with Rogan or Supagoof, so either
    a) my towncore is wrong
    b) the team is exactly Book Wombat/Rogan/Supagoof
    c) there's a wolf in the inactives

    Of which c) is the most probable imo.

    I'm normally against "lynch the inactives" but I think this game might be an exception.

    That being said I'm not voting for Emmy rn. Partly because she's already lead wagon, and partly because I don't want to mislynch her after last game.

    (Also is it bad that just the act of creating a POE makes me paranoid it's wrong? Probably. As long as I re-evaluate every day it's still a good strategy, though.)
    Strong townie points, there's some good solving efforts in here. The only sticking point is that I have no idea what Xihirli has done to get townread (granted, she's basically null for me, but still).

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Meh, I can't be bothered to push through my utter lack of motivation to ISO Rogan. I'll go reread the thread, see if I find anything I've missed or new unpairings within the POE.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Tired and slowly losing focus. I'll take a break. But first:

    Things had, indeed, gone wrong. Not only had an innocent guard been arrested, the conspirators had poisoned that nice noble who'd praised her yesterday.

    She could be next. And she really didn't want to die, especially when - no. She refused to think about it. She was not going to die.

    And the best way to make sure that happened was to find the queen's followers. There would be no more quiet observation. She was going to have them arrested. Whatever it took.
    Maaaaaan I feel that. I should've gone to bed three hours again, and I can feel my focus slipping between my fingers the past few posts in this ISO. I'll stop this ISO here and pick up the rest after I get at least a nap or something. I'd like to get everybody's ISO'd before EoD. I was supposed to ISO popo but got distracted ISOing everybody else first. >.<

    Alright I'm back. Nothing in this post feels particularly AI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Struggling to parse your second reason there: Rogan isnít one of the inactives. Those are EmmyNecromancer and rogue_alchemist, neither of whom have posted at all.

    Good luck catching up with day one, and I look forward to seeing more thoughts once you have.
    Good little callout. Slight townie points.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Yay, something I can talk about!

    Twelve alive, assume 9-3 or 8-4 then townflip today, town nightkilled, town!rogue and Emmy auto-lynch gives us 5-3 or 4-4 which... I did not realise the numbers were that bad.

    We could be in MyLo tomorrow. If there are four wolves, we could *lose* tomorrow. That is most definitely not worth an extra day's discussion, especially since it would only be half a day atp.

    Also: I'd be willing to bet there's a wolf in the inactives rn.

    Also also: we can still discuss things. In fact, since I see you still haven't looked at Rogan, gac3, could you do that? (I'll do the same if I can find time/WiFi today)
    Yup. Each inactive moves LYLO up half a phase. Granted, at this point Emmy isn't gonna autolynch regardless, but we should still lynch her.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Fair point. Still not a wolf, though. Speaking of which... I think I need to do something about all this tinfoil coming my way.
    NAI.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    So. I think people are holding my play to an unrealistic standard, as both alignments.

    I couldn't fake my play this game as a wolf. And I'm not "better than this". Sure, I slacked off and procrastinated a bit, but I don't think I've played terribly this game. Also, I have precisely one town game in the last year, and the circumstances of that were pretty different to this game. (Well, day one, at least. Day two is more similar.)

    So why am I town?

    a) the Plan. I don't do that as a wolf. Explaining why exactly requires quite a lot of self-meta, so warning for that ahead.

    I don't like making risky plays as a wolf. I know Percy Jackson and all the crazy stuff that happened in that is counter-evidence, but I did all of those things because I was screwed anyway. If I hadn't changed my claim I would have been outed the moment Batcathat flipped. 99% chance of death is better than 100% chance of death.

    This game is different. If I'm a wolf, I don't make that kind of big move right at the beginning. If I'm proposing a deliberately flawed plan then there's a pretty big risk someone finds the flaws.

    If I'm proposing a plan I genuinely think is pro-town... I'm putting my team at a disadvantage for what, towncred? I'm not going to get to endgame solely on that, and I'm confident enough in my ability to not get caught day one that I donít need the towncred just for survival.

    And itís not like ďSnowblaze always proposes mechanical plans as town so she feels obliged to do it as wolfĒ because I donít. I think this is the first game Iíve ever opened with a mechanics wall.

    That not enough to clear me? b) bladescape.

    He wolfed with me in Percy Jackson, he knows how wolf!me thinks, and he hard townread me from page one to night one. Even supposing I was able to fool him, why on earth would I ever kill him night one? Especially when thereís a confirmed Countess and a Mr Popo who I would be terrified of as a wolf.

    Beyond that itís more ďaccording to my vague impression of my own meta I couldnít fake the solving Iíve been doing so farĒ which doesnít really get you anywhere.

    Anyway, Iím doing this because realising how close we are to LyLo/MyLo has made me paranoid, and being paranoid I think itís possible that wolves are setting me up for a late-game mislynch due to me not being trusted. Which means itís important that I shut down that possibility ASAP.

    Right. I am now going to ISO Rogan. If I donít have a completed Rogan ISO posted by EOD, you can ignore everything I just said and lynch me.
    There's some good arguments here and it matches up with my knowledge of Snow.

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Having stared at Rogan's first post for a while, I've reached a few realisations:
    a) I don't know how to read Rogan
    b) I have little to no confidence in my reads or my POE any more
    c) there's a lot of IRL stuff I should be doing which is more productive

    One thing I will say is that if Rogan is a wolf, I'm probably misclearing someone. In Craziest Idea when I called him and his teammates out early on he responded by pushing me for a "scumslip"; I don't think wolf!Rogan would come round to a townread if I have a correct POE.

    Confused, paranoid and in need of a break. Sorry for not having more confidence or solid wolfreads.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Yeah, it would be good if you could look through me. And please list your concerns so I can work through them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Rogan (2): gac3, Supagoof
    EmmyNecromancer (4): AvatarVecna, Mr Popo, Xihirli, Book Wombat
    Book Wombat (1): Snowblaze
    gac3 (1): Libro
    Posted but didn't vote (2): Batcathat, Rogan
    No posts today (2): EmmyNecromancer, rogue_alchemist

    - - - Updated - - -

    General question: if there's a wolf in my towncore, who is it?

    For reference, that's AV/Xihirli/Batcathat/Mr Popo.

    Going to go now. Will probably be back sometime before EOD.
    My current answer would be Xihirli, but also I haven't ISO'd Batcathat or Mr Popo yet, so I should probably just stay out of that question.


    So far I think snowblaze is probably fine? I'll revisit this in like 6 hours, hopefully. >.<

    EDIT: Slight town lean on Snowblaze. There's a number of things here I don't like, but there's some solid arguments and good analysis - some of which I don't think scum would be doing.
    Quoting my finished Snowblaze ISO so people can check my thoughts over.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
    Everyone knows Wizards only become adventurers because it's the fastest way to get more Wizard levels.

  24. - Top - End - #264
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Technical note that "off" is passive aggressive, but Libro is lock town due to Countess claim.

    Just being super thorough in the one in I dunno how many chance that the Countess was the missing role.

    It's basically only a wolf that can counterclaim me in that world, but the way he did it was pretty villagery.
    I don't know how much my word is worth at moment, but if it helps I checked Libro's claim and it checks out.

    (So yes, I claim guard. I figured it claiming won't really hurt my chances either way).

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I don't know how much my word is worth at moment, but if it helps I checked Libro's claim and it checks out.

    (So yes, I claim guard. I figured it claiming won't really hurt my chances either way).


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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
    Everyone knows Wizards only become adventurers because it's the fastest way to get more Wizard levels.

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    I don't know how much my word is worth at moment, but if it helps I checked Libro's claim and it checks out.

    (So yes, I claim guard. I figured it claiming won't really hurt my chances either way).
    Not needed, if Libro's claim is legit he does eventually die anyhow.

    Better would be to use your power to find the mafia roleblocker roles like the King night one, because it interfered with my power usage.

    Now I have a roleblock power to use, but I will be too dead to tell you who I used it on.

    Except for one thing.

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    That's three people in a row claiming guard (a very small step up from claiming vanillager). At least Emmy was claiming from the gallows, like you're supposed to. That's what, 5 people who have publicly roleclaimed even though we all agreed that mass claiming was a bad idea?

    EDIT: Like, basically everybody who's claimed except Libro and maybe Emmy since she claimed as head wagon? Probably shouldn't have claimed, unless they're really sure scumteam already had all that info. Even emmy's claim isn't great on this cuz it's 1) claiming vanillager, and 2) telling wolves where one of the prince roles was, and where one of the guard roles went (although they'll be learning the latter for sure in a few hours regardless).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Not needed, if Libro's claim is legit he does eventually die anyhow.

    Better would be to use your power to find the mafia roleblocker roles like the King night one, because it interfered with my power usage.

    Now I have a roleblock power to use, but I will be too dead to tell you who I used it on.

    Except for one thing.
    I'm looking forward to your messages from beyond the grave, tbh
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-09-14 at 03:44 PM.


    Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Unavenger's "UPick 2: Pick Harder"

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    Aspiring optimizers can try their luck in Zinc Saucier XXXIX: Hoist The Colors High

    Quote Originally Posted by Maat Mons View Post
    Everyone knows Wizards only become adventurers because it's the fastest way to get more Wizard levels.

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    At least low activity means quicker ISOs.

    Spoiler: ISO on Supagoof
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap


    The roar of the crowd clamors over the bleachers. The peasants, despite the unrest in the castle, still clamor for a show. They have traveled in from their homesteads, their farmlands and towns, to see a performance after all. The crowd even managed to get in sync on the same page for a chant.

    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    We will, we will, joust you
    boom boom clap
    boom boom clap
    We will, we will, joust you


    Sir Goof couldn't help but chuckle at the ridiculousness. With his armor on, atop his steed, he asks for his lance. He scans the audience, and sees that the royal box is empty. No king, certainly no queen, and sadly - no princess. Sir Goof had hoped to win her favor this day, but with the events of last night, she has gone into hiding to protect herself. Goof had even gone so far as to wear her colors, purple and gold. With worried dismay, Goof sets his sights down the field. His opponent, clad in heavy iron armor with colors of black and red, was ready before him. His shield bore a strange insignia - a BatCatHat. Sir Good pondered at the origins.
    I like the shout out to a Knight's Tale (I'm assuming it's deliberate, if not it's kind of even funnier). Not really anything else to comment on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Who's Sugapoof?
    I too know the pain of people not getting my name right.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    This would be correct, as I don't check my PC very often on the weekends. Need to get back into the habit of checking the site from my phone.

    Worse though is I did not get a night action in. So I'm sitting here guessing based only on the townreads. I likely would have targeted Rogan because other people I would have targeted (who are Snow - because she is very good on both sides of the coin in these games, BCH - because he has peeked my interest as being very good in these games, or Mr. Popo - let's see what the new guy is doing) I would choose not to target right away since being second to lowest on action resolution would likely have resulted in no result - given the interference and such.

    I will happily thrown myself on the sword for such a misstep, as that does move forward with what my role is - guarding the princess. But since I can do more good alive then dead, let's see who is pinging as suspect this time after I have a chance to catch-up in more detail...
    The excuse does seem similar to last game, when you were town, so I suppose it checks out (or at least isn't actively wolfy). The claim seems a little random but I'm not really sure how to interpret it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Ok, having read through today (because I need more time to read through everything that happened after I stepped away day 1) I've got to agree with a lot of stuff Snowblaze is saying. So, to help

    Rogan - you're the next contestant on "What are you up too?"

    Because I'm not with gac3, but I'm not against him, nor am I with Book Wombat/Rogan - so I choose Rogan for 2 reason.
    1. I would have looked into him night one, but failed, so I might as well find out today.
    2. I'm definitely not with him, but I agree with Snowblaze that hidden amongst the inactives is a likely case.
    The reasons seem rather vague, but I've voted someone for less, so...

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    What can I answer for you? I'm an open book.

    Day 1 - I posted early and got 2 in before I wandered off. Been called Sugapoof before, probably will be again. Also, if you're old school enough, my alter-ego is Graklok. Sorry I didn't give much more read then those 2 posts day one. Because I am old school, I was used to having more then 1 game at a time, so back in the day - I was either switching between multiple games which forced me to be here posting more often, or narrating them, or both. I am attempting to get back into checking more often as it requires more effort now then it did with multiple games. Odd, but that way worked for me. Not used to the new style - which is my fault after being gone for about a decade. Would have thought to get back into the cadence again with Afterlife, but hard to do when I got lynched day 2.
    Could very well be true but not really saying anything about his alignment.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    So - on the "don't look at the 3-card monte" game Mr. Popo is playing, and after reading his dizzying/epic novel amount of posts, he is pinging as sus still on my radar. Might be trying to do sooo much song and dance that you're so busy watching the show, you aren't paying any attention to what's going on backstage. I do love the logic he puts into it, and can see some meta-reasoning in it as well. I don't trust him, but I don't distrust him yet right now either. Ponders about him and Snowblaze working together to mask each others scent. I may just point at him for forcing me to read so much.
    Feels like all of my ISOs have a "trying to make sense of Mr. Popo" section. The idea of Popo and Snow working together might be worth considering.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Just posting that I am here today. Feeling like switching my point, just need to figure out a few things during my workday. Like, for example, what do Mr Popo funbucks buy? Just curious, I don't know what I did there either. Other than (what Snowblaze called out) where I was pointing at inactives then pointed at Rogan who was/is active? Is that it - do I win the funbucks? (And despite which way this game goes, I absolutely enjoy that Mr. Popo is totally the Robin Williams reincarnation of the Genie.)
    Spot on comparison, if nothing else.

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    @^ Just trying to balance RL work with game, and today I have a bunch of intermittent meetings, which means my posts won't be long drawn out hypothesis, though I am actively trying to be here today.

    Rogan - I appreciate your response. however, you did not grasp the entirety of the whole post. During the post, where I said I had wanted to hear more from you, I also stated I didn't read all of day 1. At that point in day 2, you only had one post. I've crossed out my point on you, as you've directly answered me. Still sus (though, to be fair, everyone is).

    I'd like to check in on BatCatHat for the similar reasons. I simply must know more about what you're doing. Also, I feel I may have been accidentally right day 1, at least I wasn't wrong by being on Jeen's bandwagon, although I didn't know that at the time. Saying there's probably a wolf there, simple math being they know they weren't voting each other so hop on.

    @lol, I post, walk away from my desk to a meeting, come back, and find this. @V
    Voting me for that reason looks okay, reversing it on his own even better. (I think?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    RogueAlchemist - only because I'm starting to think my pointing of fingers is getting some pretty hefty responses.
    Seems pretty consistent with his earlier poke votes.


    I'm not really seeing a lot I dislike but I'm not really seeing a lot I like either. The low activity might be a warning sign in itself but it was the same last game. Goof and Emmy ended up competing wagons for similar reasons and both were town. Hopefully history doesn't repeat (though I'm leaning wolf on Emmy, at least).

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
    Not needed, if Libro's claim is legit he does eventually die anyhow.

    Better would be to use your power to find the mafia roleblocker roles like the King night one, because it interfered with my power usage.
    Sure, I realized it wasn't the best use of it (even if I figured there was a slight chance Libro's claim was part of some wolf gambit) but I didn't really have any other good ideas and guessing someone's role at random seemed likely to be worthless.

  29. - Top - End - #269
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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    I voted - last switch I did was for RogueAlchemist. You missed that Popo.Nevermind. I really should posted as soon as I get done with this one, not when I got back to it.

    I could have switched to Emmy - didn't because she had just posted before I did, though it wasn't much of a post and my adding onto her bandwagon offers no insight to me or her at this point.

    I do believe that voting for auto-lynch candidates to be a worthwhile town excursion, because intentionally gathering all the information of a day, but not losing 2 people to that day is advantage town. Even when they come and post late in the day.

    To answer you Rogan - my ISO list is still everyone, as I don't trust anyone yet.

    I can see alliances being formed with Mr Popo's safe list. He does assure a way to the promised land of the town victory with it. Then again, the builders of the Titanic assured a safe trip across the Atlantic...

    At this point, I'm not standing in his way. I don't even mind being on the suspect list. Would be a reason for the wolves to not night kill me, making the assumption that I will likely be lynched tomorrow. Then again, could be wolfish behavior to say that to give a reason as to why I wasn't night killed if I was a wolf (which I'm not).
    Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-09-14 at 03:53 PM.
    Spoiler
    Show
    Legionary of Protection
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

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    Default Re: Love Letter Mafia

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    That's three people in a row claiming guard (a very small step up from claiming vanillager). At least Emmy was claiming from the gallows, like you're supposed to. That's what, 5 people who have publicly roleclaimed even though we all agreed that mass claiming was a bad idea?
    Spoiler
    Show
    Every person shall claim what they will at the time of their choosing, no more, no less.

    Even though, yes, there is no point in mass claiming particularly under no pressure.

    But there is also no point in doing what Bat did as a wolf here. It just gets more attention on you for flinching a bit, when there was no real momentum on them in the first place.


    So, what i do as town is I try to find my suspects townie.

    No matter how hard it is.

    No matter how wolfy they look. No matter how doomed they seem.

    Spoiler: Example example
    Show
    For example, in War of Princes, a mafia versus mafia versus town game, I had just finished executing a wolf from one faction day 2, and the next day, a different wolf from a different faction claimed a guilty cop check on someone who had voted to try to save that doomed wolf I killed.

    But, this was after I asked everyone to mass claim fake cop results.

    There's no point in everyone fake claiming cop results if someone claims a guilty peek and then everyone immediately unclaims and follows the "cop".

    So I told everyone to maintain cop cover, and I explained that the first wolf was so doomed, there was no swing in win odds for the wolf team if they tried to save him. In fact, it would have doomed their entire faction had they tried it.

    I was right, person who had tried to save my doomed wolf D2 and was checked guilty by the only cop who claimed a guilty check, was innocent, for the reasons I stated.

    No matter how wolfy they look, how are they town?


    So I just dove Emmy Necromancer's past several games.

    In one, she was busy and town and specifically requested to be auto lynched.
    In another she was town and played it out, though not particularly active.
    In another she was a neutral and played it out quite a bit.

    In all of these, she posted day one, and placed a vote, I believe. Skimmed quickly.

    Now, I believe she is mainly a mechanics and claims type player, as most of her posts focus on her own claiming, and others claiming, and making a few posts a day maximum.

    Sure, that can generically look like the behavior of this game.

    2 posts on day 2, both revolving entirely around claims and mechanics.

    Not posting anything on night one to say hi, I guess that can happen sometimes. I doubt it from townies, but I have seen townies do wolfier things.

    Of the two posts on day 2, the claim where she claims her role, she does not use her role in a way that can be verified by any other player.

    If she had used her power on another player that would be confirmable evidence they are either lying together, or it happened.

    So the fact that she used her power in a nonconfirmable way indicates to me the claim is fake.

    And trying to gain the unused guard ability makes sense, if the claim is true, if she expected to be alive night 2 to use that power.

    Given how everyone suspected her and she has done nothing about that, I doubt she sincerely believes that was ever going to happen.

    Her second post attempts to make it seem like she has not followed the events of the thread.

    Which I also do not buy from her.

    In short, it is all wolfy stuff, and also, designed to limit the damage to her team.

    And in the event I am wrong, this is also the least bad execution we have.

    Because she also claimed to not be the Princess, and there is no way to confirm her ability, and because she is widely suspected, this will help us move on even when it is wrong.

    But I don't like to be wrong, so I meta dove her, and I think she played out this game because she has wolf mates she doesn't want to let down.

    At least tanking a day arrest keeps the rest of them alive, and then they can shut me up and hunt the rest of you without me yapping about it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Mainly, she is a wolf because active n1 but never checking in, never addressing it, but that can be incidental. Not everyone checks in when they can, sadly.

    However, she decided to use her night action to not even verify her own location, which is the bare minimum townie behavior you can do with that.

    She also decided to vote no one, which attacks no suspects and defends no townies, and wins only when you have a night kill.

    As such, she is guilty.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    I voted - last switch I did was for RogueAlchemist. You missed that Popo.Nevermind. I really should posted as soon as I get done with this one, not when I got back to it.

    I could have switched to Emmy - didn't because she had just posted before I did, though it wasn't much of a post and my adding onto her bandwagon offers no insight to me or her at this point.

    I do believe that voting for auto-lynch candidates to be a worthwhile town excursion, because intentionally gathering all the information of a day, but not losing 2 people to that day is advantage town. Even when they come and post late in the day.

    To answer you Rogan - my ISO list is still everyone, as I don't trust anyone yet.

    I can see alliances being formed with Mr Popo's safe list. He does assure a way to the promised land of the town victory with it. Then again, the builders of the Titanic assured a safe trip across the Atlantic...

    At this point, I'm not standing in his way. I don't even mind being on the suspect list. Would be a reason for the wolves to not night kill me, making the assumption that I will likely be lynched tomorrow. Then again, could be wolfish behavior to say that to give a reason as to why I wasn't night killed if I was a wolf (which I'm not).
    Supagoof, focus on all the other players in the game.

    Your best defense is slamming a dunk case on a wolf.

    I have gotten a feel for your personality and posting style this game, since you have posted.

    I like you. A lot. You remind me a lot of Zander, which means nothing to you.

    You're laid back and have a super chill attitude. You don't mind pressure. That's all cool, dude.

    I love being able to just directly talk to someone I suspect and say why, and have em treat it like an adult would. If wrong, it's a wrong guess in a guessing game that will be over in a couple weeks max. Who cares.

    Still, as much as I cherish your personality, I have to scum case you in a second.

    and, of course, since that is meaningless to you today, and if you have a way of mechanically verifying yourself, it matters not tomorrow, since you have literally all day to defend, you can avoid being arrested if you can even if my guessing game guess on you is wrong.

    I do guess wrong, we've seen it happen already.
    Last edited by Mr Popo; 2021-09-14 at 03:59 PM.

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