A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #121
    Troll in the Playground
     
    OldWizardGuy

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    Aug 2010

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by Quertus View Post
    Or imagine if PAC Man only had an 80% chance to actually eat the dots he moved over. Or a game with "double jump" had it only work 80% of the time.
    Actually reliable abilities are a different situation. I guess I'm making two related points:

    1) If the chance of something happening is supposed to be a factor, making it happen 100% of the time subverts that part of the game design.
    2) High percentages lead people to assume it's actually 100%, and then bitch when it isn't.

    "Do I eat the dot" isn't a factor in Pac-Man, therefore neither of those apply.

    Quote Originally Posted by Quertus View Post
    On topic, if Brigandine used a d20 instead of a d100, and "99%" was rounded to 100% chance to hit? I don't think that the game would lose much, except that small tension of, "am I *actually* going to miss this 99% attack?!".
    No, but then what happens on the 98% chance? Where do you draw the line?
    "Gosh 2D8HP, you are so very correct (and also good looking)"

  2. - Top - End - #122
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    DwarfFighterGuy

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    Sep 2010

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by kyoryu View Post
    No, but then what happens on the 98% chance? Where do you draw the line?
    At 90%, of course. :)

    -DF

  3. - Top - End - #123
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    DwarfFighterGuy

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    Sep 2010

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by noob View Post
    Xcom lies on percentages.
    It is intentional: they adjust percentages over time to keep the game experience fun but writes the same constant percentages displayed.
    So when you read 5% it might actually be 50% and trying to make you feel lucky and think you had only 1/20 chance to succeed while you had 1/2 chance of success.
    If I say your rolls have a 50% chance of success, but you pass 90% of your rolls, if you never see the rolls, how do you know if the game is rigged, or if you're just lucky? :)

  4. - Top - End - #124
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    OldWizardGuy

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    Aug 2010

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by DwarfFighter View Post
    At 90%, of course. :)

    -DF
    That's probably a reasonable place, tbh.
    "Gosh 2D8HP, you are so very correct (and also good looking)"

  5. - Top - End - #125
    Firbolg in the Playground
    Join Date
    Oct 2011

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by kyoryu View Post
    No, but then what happens on the 98% chance? Where do you draw the line?
    … I thought a) basic rules of rounding were still taught to grade schoolers; b) that people who aren't me can actually convert bases in their head; C) that the Playground would have no difficulty with assuming and applying the inheritance concept of "use base rule if no rules given".

    So… rounding to 1's, it breaks at .5; rounding to 5's, it breaks at 2.5.

    So 97.5-100=100-> a 1+ (or 20-) on the d20,

    92.5-97.499999 =95-> a 2+ (or 19-) on the d20,

    Etc.

    (Not that the decimals matter, as Brigandine only uses (displays) whole integer percentage numbers)

    Clear as mud?

  6. - Top - End - #126
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    ElfRangerGuy

    Join Date
    Jul 2014

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by DwarfFighter View Post
    If I say your rolls have a 50% chance of success, but you pass 90% of your rolls, if you never see the rolls, how do you know if the game is rigged, or if you're just lucky? :)

  7. - Top - End - #127
    Ogre in the Playground
    Join Date
    Mar 2015

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    To Quertus: I think they were asking what granularity is appropriate, not what the granularity of a d20 is. If you are going to express things in percentages, I think 10% increments are fine. I like fractions here for some reason, but 1/10 is a good step.

    Quote Originally Posted by Telok View Post
    Wesnoth also used to either lie like dog or miscalculate.
    I think they have fixed that. Or everyone who has ever looked at the source code is in on the lie because they claim that it is fair. The Battle for Wesnoth is my favourite game I never play.

  8. - Top - End - #128
    Ettin in the Playground
    Join Date
    Jun 2015

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by DwarfFighter View Post
    If I say your rolls have a 50% chance of success, but you pass 90% of your rolls, if you never see the rolls, how do you know if the game is rigged, or if you're just lucky? :)
    Because some devs leaked that fact.
    It is not hard to know if developers from the game tells you (this information is not written in the game help itself but the information can be found).
    Last edited by noob; 2021-09-28 at 07:52 AM.

  9. - Top - End - #129
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    OldWizardGuy

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    Aug 2010

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by Quertus View Post
    … I thought a) basic rules of rounding were still taught to grade schoolers; b) that people who aren't me can actually convert bases in their head; C) that the Playground would have no difficulty with assuming and applying the inheritance concept of "use base rule if no rules given".

    So… rounding to 1's, it breaks at .5; rounding to 5's, it breaks at 2.5.

    So 97.5-100=100-> a 1+ (or 20-) on the d20,

    92.5-97.499999 =95-> a 2+ (or 19-) on the d20,

    Etc.

    (Not that the decimals matter, as Brigandine only uses (displays) whole integer percentage numbers)

    Clear as mud?
    Let's go with d) not everyone was assuming a d20-based context.
    "Gosh 2D8HP, you are so very correct (and also good looking)"

  10. - Top - End - #130
    Firbolg in the Playground
    Join Date
    Oct 2011

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by kyoryu View Post
    Let's go with d) not everyone was assuming a d20-based context.
    I mean, just because a d20 is the thread topic, I'll agree, that isn't sufficient to guarantee that someone - especially me - is actually talking about a d20. However,

    Quote Originally Posted by Quertus View Post
    On topic, if Brigandine used a d20 instead of a d100,

    Bolded for emphasis.

  11. - Top - End - #131
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    OldWizardGuy

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    Aug 2010

    Default Re: D20 Variance in practice

    Quote Originally Posted by Quertus View Post
    I mean, just because a d20 is the thread topic, I'll agree, that isn't sufficient to guarantee that someone - especially me - is actually talking about a d20. However,


    Bolded for emphasis.
    Yeah, but we were talking about high percentages to hit in games like XCom. Come on, man.
    "Gosh 2D8HP, you are so very correct (and also good looking)"

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